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and new market opportunities involving trade with the Middle East are expected to increase demand for transport.
In the two regions there exist a large potential for trading opportunities. the south Asian countries for instance , India, Pakistan , Afghanistan are suffering from energy deficiency for taking their industries one step forward and providing electricity to the Public, while on the other hand the presence of surplus energy in Central Asian countries need for building a sustainable partnership between the two regions to address energy security. Apart from energy, there are huge potential for trading opportunities in infrastructure, financial cooperation, technological advancement and agricultural practices. The most significant forms of economic integration in Asia have been through trade, investment and migration. Many of these activities have benefited from various preferential arrangements, each of which covers a limited number of countries. To take fuller advantage of the two regions enormous opportunities, regional integration could be better pursed by broader arrangements that cover the whole region.
Trade between Afghanistan and central Asian ( and other) countries continues to be hampered by corruption , inefficient formal institutions , product of labelling language , and unfamiliarity of Afghan traders with Central Asian and Russian Produces.
The form of future role Afghanistan can perform in the region could take two shapes: Threat and Opportunities for the region- a two ground reality which has its root directly or indirectly to the region itself.
This require, to take a collective action by all countries at two sides of the regions, fighting against insurgency and opium trafficking. The conflict between India Pakistan and Pakistan-Afghanistan has direct influence on the future role of Afghanistan in the region. On the other hand the role of china and Russia, and Iran are also significant in counter narcotic efforts.
Stability in Afghanistan will led to cross- border trade agreements and foreign direct investment.
Nevertheless, despite less stability inside Afghanistan, China, India, Tajikistan and other countries invested billion US dollar investment in mine and other sectors, and the foreign direct investment since 2001 is dignified to be approximately $7 billion.
During the past ten years, Afghan minerals have become the most important economic asset. In 2011, the government of Afghanistan announced that 30% of the country had undergone surveys and that at least $3 trillion worth of natural resources were found. Exploitation of coal and gemstones has accelerated in recent years. In 2009 the Afghan government leased exploitation rights of the Ainak Copper mine to MCC, a Chinese company. This was the largest contract of its kind in the past ten years and, there has been some progress in other fields, such as oil, gas and iron ore exploration and extraction as well. Yet, Afghanistan remain one of the worlds least developed country, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of only $US 528 in 2010/11.
More than one third of the population lives below the poverty line, more than half are vulnerable and at serious risk of falling into poverty, and three- quarters are illiterate.
At a large regional level , the central Afghan government , spurred on by the International community , has been struggling to galvanize regional- wide cooperation on security and development in Afghanistan and its neighborhood under what is called the heart of Asia or Istanbul process since November 2011. However, a key shortcoming of the heart of Asia process is that it continues to lack organizational and funding mechanism
due to lack of political will for the six adopted implementation plan ( on counter terrorism ; counter narcotics ; disaster management ; trade , commercial and investment opportunities ; regional infrastructure and education). The participant have failed to overcome this problem since this process was lunched in late 2011 because there seems to be no serious determination to create another regional organization in an area where several already existing regional south Asian, central Asian and Eurasian organization, south Asian association for regional economic cooperation, central Asian regional economic cooperation, shanghai co operation organization, collective security treaty organization, etc.)To benefit from this opportunity, there is a need for an efficient and well developed regional and international transit transport. However, the regional transport networks are inadequate, a large proportion of regional transport infrastructure and facilities are in poor condition, funding for maintenance is insufficient, and nonphysical barriers are becoming major impediments to cross-border and transit traffic.
The Government of Afghanistan and its near extended neighbors in central and south Asia have re-vitalized long standing trilateral and multilateral negotiation on three major regional energy and infrastructure project after 2001. These include the oft- discussed Turkmenistan Afghanistan- Pakistan India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline project; the newly proposed Central Asian south Asian regional electricity Market
(CASAREM) project , particularly its sole existing CASA-1000 element ; and the recently planned Turkmenistan- Afghanistan Tajikistan railway construction project. However, given the deteriorating security situation along the pipelines route in Afghanistan (along the ring road through Herat down Kandahar) and in Pakistan (Through the restive Baluchistan province), it is unlikely that the projects construction will begin by 2014 and , if so , that it will see smooth implementation through 2017.
The CASA 1000 regional electricity export project (From Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan), as part of the bigger planned CASAREM, has been in negotiations for around eight years. The CASAREM central office was initially to be based in Kabul because almost half of the transmission lines pass through Afghanistan (562 of 1200 KM), but it was moved to Almaty, Kazakhstan, probably due to lack of capacity on the Afghan side. At least from the Afghan side, the entire regional process has been disorganized that the country is, about eight years since the projects initial conceptualization, yet to appoint its representative to the central office.
On the Threat side, based on the recent report Published by joint work of united nation office for Drag and Crime and Minister of Counter Narcotic, Afghanistan faces serious challenges related to drugs that require effective responses by the country with support from the international community; particularly the region.
Although most of the worlds opium today comes from Afghanistan (74%), only a small proportion is seized either in country or by regional partners. Along the borders of Afghanistan, illicit drug trafficking is proliferating together with the movement of insurgents, money, people and weapons and precursor chemicals imported into the country.
The drug trade funds accrued annually by insurgents and warlords have been estimated to net between 200 and 400 million USD. Additionally, the country has to deal with close to one million adult drug users with limited capacity for treatment. The illicit economy is thus a key factor shaping Afghanistans current and longer term national development and by implication also related programs and investment. The counter narcotics challenge also significantly shapes regional dynamics and stability which requires more collaboration by concerned neighboring countries.
The studies shows that the neighboring countries have a significant role in fighting narcotics. Its not only the world suffering from Opium but, Afghanistan as the largest producer is the first victim of Opium. The research also shows that opium production has direct link with insecurity; injustice and lack of regional cooperation. The South and West Regions of Afghanistan account for the majority of opium production in the country in 2012, 72% of Afghanistans opium was cultivated in the South alone with Hilmand, Uruzgan, Farah and Kandahar having the highest levels of cultivation. In 2012, the total farm-gate value of the opium produced from poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was US$ 717 million corresponding to four percent of the countrys GDP. This represents a significant share for an illicit economy in Colombia, the 2011 value of the coca crop expressed as a proportion of the licit GDP was just 0.2 per cent. In terms of the export value of opiates as a proportion of the overall Afghan GDP, this was 13.5 per cent in 2011 having declined from 50 percent in 2003. This is not due to a reduction in the scale of the opium economy, but is rather a reflection of the increase of Afghanistans GDP from US$ 4.59 billion in 2003 to US$19.18 billion in 2011.
References
1. Afghanistan in Transition looking beyond 2014( Richard Hogg, Claudia Nassif, Camilo Gomez Osorio, William Byrd, and Andrew Beath), World Bank.
2. Connecting Central Asia, a road map for regional cooperation, Manmhan Parkash, 2006 (Asian Development Bank).
3. Word development Indicator 2013.
4. The labor Market, Education and Armed conflict in Tajikistan ( Olga. N. Shimyakina).
5. The new silk road, ten years of the Central Asia regional Economic Cooperation program.
6. Central Asia south Asia power transmission program CASA-1000 IBRD, 38525.
7. Between cooperation and Insulation By christain Bleuer and Sayed Reza Kazami, Afghanistan Analyst network.
8. Afghanistan drug report 2012, Ministry of Counter Narcotics.
9. ACCI report 2012, ANDS final evaluation report , MOEC.
10.Trend of Investment, Afghanistan Investment Supporting agency Growing together, United Nations, ESCAP May 2012.
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A.K. Alexeev