早稲田大学大学院 環境・エネルギー研究科
博 士 論 文 概 要 書
論 文 題 目
Generation Optimal Mix Planning for Newly
Industrializing Country by K-Best Dynamic
Programming
K-ベスト 動的計画法による新興国向け電力 システム計画最適化
申 請 者
ﾓｰﾃﾞｨｻ ｱｲｼｬ
Aishah Mohd Isa
環境・エネルギー研究科 環境・電力システム研究 2011 年 02 月
氏 名
1
T h e o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s d o c t o r a l s t u d y i s t o d e v e l o p a m e t h o d o l o g y f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g t h e o p t i m a l g e n e r a t i o n f u e l m i x t h a t t a k e s i n t o a c c o u n t t h e e c o n o m i c c o s t , t e c h n o l o g y, r e l i a b i l i t y a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t c r i t e r i a . T h i s m e t h o d o l o g y i s t h e n a p p l i e d f o r e v a l u a t i n g t h e c a p a c i t y e x p a n s i o n p l a n n i n g f o r a N e w l y I n d u s t r i a l i z i n g C o u n t r y.
T h e f u n d a m e n t a l r o l e o f t h e e l e c t r i c a l s u p p l y i n d u s t r y i s t o g e n e r a t e , t r a n s m i t a n d d e l i v e r e l e c t r i c a l p o w e r t o c o n s u m e r s i n t h e i r j u r i s d i c t i o n . P o w e r s y s t e m s p l a n n i n g i s o n e t h e c r u c i a l t a s k s t o w a r d s f u l f i l l i n g t h a t r o l e , b e i n g a c r i t i c a l f a c t o r i n e n s u r i n g p o w e r s y s t e m s p e r f o r m a n c e i n t h e f u t u r e . L o n g - t e r m p o w e r s y s t e m s p l a n n i n g c o n s i d e r s a t i m e - f r a m e o f a b o u t t e n t o 3 5 y e a r s , a n d e n c o m p a s s e s l o a d f o r e c a s t i n g , e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n i n g a n d e l e c t r i c a l n e t w o r k p l a n n i n g . F o r t h i s d o c t o r a l w o r k , e l e c t r i c a l n e t w o r k p l a n n i n g i s o m i t t e d .
L o a d f o r e c a s t i n g p r e d i c t s t h e f u t u r e l o a d d e m a n d s o n t h e p o w e r s y s t e m s w h i c h f o r m t h e b a s i s f o r m a k i n g p l a n n i n g , m a i n t e n a n c e a n d o p e r a t i o n d e c i s i o n s . I f t h e o p e r a t o r s h a d a n e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e e x p e c t e d c o n s u m p t i o n f o r t h e n e x t d a y, t h e y a r e a b l e t o a r r a n g e b e f o r e h a n d a s u i t a b l e n u m b e r o f p o w e r g e n e r a t i n g s u p p l i e s t o o n l i n e a n d r e a d y t o g e n e r a t e e l e c t r i c i t y t o m e e t t h e d e m a n d . K n o w i n g t h e c o n s u m p t i o n e s t i m a t i o n f o r t h e n e x t m o n t h a l l o w s n e t w o r k p l a n n e r s t o s c h e d u l e a p p r o p r i a t e d a y s f o r m a i n t e n a n c e w i t h o u t j e o p a r d i z i n g t h e s y s t e m . F o r g e n e r a t i o n p l a n n e r s , p r i o r k n o w l e d g e o f f u t u r e c o n s u m p t i o n i s r e q u i r e d f o r f u e l s c h e d u l i n g a n d c a p a c i t y e x p a n s i o n p l a n n i n g .
M o s t l o a d f o r e c a s t i n g m e t h o d s a r e e i t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s o r a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e t e c h n i q u e s . P r e c i s e f o r e c a s t i n g i s i m p o s s i b l e w h e n r e s u l t s d e p e n d n o t o n l y o n t h e m o d e l u s e d b u t a l s o w e a t h e r c o n d i t i o n s . T h u s f o r t h i s d o c t o r a l w o r k , t w o d i f f e r e n t t e c h n i q u e s w e r e u s e d t o f o r e c a s t l o n g t e r m l o a d f o r a N e w l y I n d u s t r i a l i z i n g C o u n t r y.
W h e r e l o a d f o r e c a s t i n g p r e d i c t s t h e f u t u r e c o n s u m p t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t , g e n e r a t i o n e x p a n s i o n p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g i z e s h o w t h e r e q u i r e m e n t w i l l b e m e t . T h e i n i t i a l s t e p i s t o d e t e r m i n e i f t h e e x i s t i n g p o w e r s y s t e m s g e n e r a t i o n a s s e t s a r e s u f f i c i e n t f o r m e e t i n g t h e p r o j e c t e d d e m a n d , a n d i f
n o t , t h e n h o w m u c h e x t r a c a p a c i t y w i l l b e r e q u i r e d . Wo u l d r e f u r b i s h m e n t o f e x i s t i n g g e n e r a t i o n u n i t s b e e n o u g h o r w i l l n e w g e n e r a t i o n u n i t s n e e d t o b e a d d e d t o t h e s y s t e m ? W h a t t y p e o f g e n e r a t i n g u n i t s s h o u l d b e a d d e d ? W h e r e a n d w h e n s h o u l d t h e g e n e r a t i n g u n i t s b e b u i l t ?
A l l t h e s e q u e s t i o n s a r e p a r t o f t h e g e n e r a t i o n e x p a n s i o n p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m . O t h e r a t t r i b u t e s a l s o c o m p l i c a t e t h e p r o b l e m . F o r i n s t a n c e , a t y p i c a l p o w e r s y s t e m c o n s i s t s o f v a r i o u s t y p e s o f g e n e r a t i n g u n i t s w i t h d i f f e r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d t h e l e n g t h o f p l a n n i n g p e r i o d ( 1 0 t o 3 0 y e a r s ) i n c r e a s e s t h e d i m e n s i o n s o f t h e p r o b l e m . D a t a r e q u i r e d f o r p l a n n i n g , s u c h a s l o a d f o r e c a s t i n g a n d f u e l p r i c e p r o j e c t i o n s , a r e e s t i m a t e s n o t a c t u a l a n d t h i s a d d s t o t h e c o m p l e x i t i e s o f t h e p r o b l e m .
C e r t a i n a s s u m p t i o n s c o u l d b e m a d e t o s i m p l i f y t h e g e n e r a t i o n e x p a n s i o n p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m . A l l e l e c t r i c a l l o a d a n d g e n e r a t i o n u n i t s c a n b e a s s u m e d t o o p e r a t e f r o m t h e s a m e n o d a l p o i n t . T h i s w a y, t h e t r a n s m i s s i o n c o s t s a r e e l i m i n a t e d f r o m t h e p r o b l e m a n d s i m i l a r g e n e r a t i o n u n i t t y p e s c o u l d b e g r o u p e d t o g e t h e r. P l a n n i n g h o r i z o n i s n o t d i v i d e d i n t o s e v e r a l d e c i s i o n s t a g e s , i n s t e a d o n l y o n e t a r g e t d a t e i s s e t a t t h e e n d o f t h e p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n . C o s t s a r e a v e r a g e d o v e r t h e w h o l e p l a n n i n g p e r i o d r a t h e r t h a n h a v i n g a t i m e - v a r y i n g f u n c t i o n . T h i s s i m p l i f i e d v e r s i o n o f t h e g e n e r a t i o n e x p a n s i o n p r o b l e m i s t h e g e n e r a t i o n o p t i m a l m i x p r o b l e m w h i c h w a s s o l v e d i n t h i s d o c t o r a l t h e s i s a n d a p p l i e d t o a N e w l y I n d u s t r i a l i z i n g C o u n t r y.
N e w l y I n d u s t r i a l i z i n g C o u n t r i e s ( N I C ) a r e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h a t h a v e n o t r e a c h e d f i r s t - w o r l d s t a t u s b u t h a v e o u t p a c e d t h e i r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t e r p a r t s . N I C s w e r e i n i t i a l l y c h o s e n f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s b e c a u s e t h e s e c o u n t r i e s a r e s t i l l e x p e r i e n c i n g r a d i c a l g r o w t h i n d e m a n d a n d l o a d c a p a c i t y a n d w i l l p r o b a b l y c o n t i n u e t o d o s o i n t h e c o m i n g y e a r s . F r o m t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w c o n d u c t e d , i t w a s f o u n d t h a t B r a z i l , C h i n a a n d I n d i a a r e o f t e n g r o u p e d t o g e t h e r w i t h R u s s i a a s B R I C s a n d i d e n t i f i e d a s t h e l a r g e e c o n o m i e s o f t h e f u t u r e . A s t h e l a r g e e c o n o m i e s o f t h e f u t u r e , t h e B R I C ’ s p o w e r s y s t e m s d e v e l o p m e n t i s c l o s e l y m o n i t o r e d b y r e s e a r c h e r s a n d a n a l y s t s w o r l d w i d e . A s s u c h , t h i s d o c t o r a l w o r k f o c u s e d i n s t e a d o n t h e N I C s i n t h e S o u t h E a s t A s i a n R e g i o n , s p e c i f i c a l l y M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d
3 a n d P h i l i p p i n e s .
To r e - i t e r a t e , t h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s d o c t o r a l w o r k i s t o s o l v e t h e m u l t i - o b j e c t i v e g e n e r a t i o n o p t i m a l m i x p r o b l e m f o r a n N I C . T h e o p t i m a l m i x p r o b l e m s t r i v e s t o c h o o s e a f u e l t e c h n o l o g y, o r c o m b i n a t i o n o f t e c h n o l o g i e s , t h a t i s a b l e t o m e e t e l e c t r i c p o w e r d e m a n d f o r a t a r g e t y e a r, t h a t b e s t m i n i m i z e s e c o n o m i c c o s t a n d s o c i o - e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s a s w e l l a s m a x i m i z i n g r e l i a b i l i t y.
T h i s w a s s u c c e s s f u l l y a c c o m p l i s h e d t h r o u g h t h e p r o p o s e d K - b e s t D y n a m i c P r o g r a m m i n g M u l t i - O b j e c t i v e Tr a d e - O f f M e t h o d . T h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m c o n s i s t s o f t w o p h a s e s . I n P h a s e I , t h e a i m i s t o f i n d t h e c a p a c i t y a n d e c o n o m i c c o s t f o r d i f f e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s o f f u e l t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d t h e s o l u t i o n t o o l c h o s e n i s t h e K - b e s t d y n a m i c p r o g r a m m i n g m e t h o d . I n P h a s e I I , r e s u l t s f r o m P h a s e I a r e u s e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c i m p a c t a n d r e l i a b i l i t y i n d i c e s f o r e a c h c o m b i n a t i o n . F i n a l l y, b y c o n d u c t i n g d o m i n a n c e a n a l y s i s a n d g o a l p r o g r a m m i n g , t h e l e s s o p t i m a l c o m b i n a t i o n o f t e c h n o l o g i e s c o u l d b e s c r e e n e d o u t a n d t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f f u e l t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t b e s t m e e t s t h e t h r e e o b j e c t i v e s c a n b e i d e n t i f i e d .
T h e m e t h o d o l o g y w a s v e r i f i e d i n t h r e e s e p a r a t e c a s e s . T h e f i r s t c a s e v a l i d a t e s t h e s u p e r i o r i t y o f t h e E x t e n d e d D y n a m i c P r o g r a m m i n g m e t h o d i n c a s e s o f l a r g e p o w e r s y s t e m s . T h e s e c o n d c a s e s d e m o n s t r a t e s t h e u s e o f K - b e s t D P w h e n t w o o b j e c t i v e s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d , a n d p r o v e s t h a t r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e t e s t s y s t e m c a n b e i m p r o v e d w i t h o u t s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t i n g t h e c o s t . T h e t h i r d c a s e w a s i n s p i r e d b y a M a l a y s i a n t e s t c a s e a n d i t w a s s h o w n t h a t t h e p r o p o s e d m e t h o d o l o g y w a s a b l e f i n d t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n w h e n f o u r d i f f e r e n t t e c h n o l o g i e s w e r e u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n o p t i m a l m i x p r o b l e m .
早稲田大学 博士（工学） 学位申請 研究業績書
氏 名 ﾓｰﾃﾞｨｻ ｱｲｼｬ （ 2011年 2月 現在）
番 号
分類 著者(申請者含む)、 題名、 発行掲載誌名/発表場所･巻号･頁、 発行/発表年月 1 査読論文 A. Mohd Isa, H Magori, T Niimura, R Yokoyama. Multi-Criteria Generation Optimal Mix Planning for Malaysia’s Additional Capacity. International Journal of Energy and Environment. Vol. 4. Issue 4, pp 221-228, 2010.
2 査読論文・
国際学会 A. Mohd Isa, H Magori, T Niimura, R Yokoyama. Multi-Criteria Generation Optimal Mix by K-Best Dynamic Programming Algorithm. International Congress on Computer Applications and Computational Science 2010.
December 4-6, 2010. Singapore.
3 査読論文・
国際学会 A Mohd Isa, H Magori, T Niimura, R Yokoyama. Comparing Different Technologies for Malaysia’s Additional Generation Capacity by K-Best Dynamic Programming Multi-criteria Trade-off Method. WSEAS 10th International Conference on Electric Power Systems, High Voltage, Electric Machines. October 4-6, 2010. Iwate, Japan.
4 査読論文 A Mohd Isa, T Niimura, R Yokoyama, H Magori: Combinatorial Explosion Mitigation Strategy for Large-Scale Dynamic Programming based on Inferior Solution Criteria applied to the Power System Expansion Problem (Part I), International Journal on Software Engineering, Vol 1, No 2, pp 93-100, July-Dec 2009.
5 国際学会 D.Yamashita, K. Hasegawa, A Mohd Isa, T.Niimura, R Yokoyama,
M.Marmiroli. Trade-off Analysis of CO2 versus cost for unit commitment problem by Multi-Objective Optimization. IEEJ-EIT Joint Symposium on Advanced Technology in Power and Energy System. November 26-27, 2009.
Bangkok, Thailand
6 国際学会 A Mohd Isa, T Niimura, R Yokoyama;, A Review of ASEAN NICs Electrical Energy Scenario. IASTED Conference on Power Energy Systems, October 2009.
Beijing, China.
Ｎｏ．２
早稲田大学 博士（工学） 学位申請 研究業績書
氏 名 ﾓｰﾃﾞｨｻ ｱｲｼｬ （ 2011 年 2 月 現在）
番 号
分類 著者(申請者含む)、 題名、 発行掲載誌名/発表場所･巻号･頁、 発行/発表年月 7 査読論文・
国際学会 A Mohd Isa, T Niimura, N Sakamoto, K Ozawa, R Yokoyama; Electricity Market Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network Models Optimized by Grid Computing. IFAC Power Plant and Power Systems Control, July 2009. Tampere, Finland.
8 国際学会 D Yamashita, A Mohd Isa, T Niimura, R Yokoyama; Forecasting of Electricity Price and Demand Using Auto-Regressive Neural Networks. 17th IFAC World Congress, July 6-11, 2008. Seoul, South Korea
9 査読論文 A Mohd Isa, T Niimura, R Yokoyama;,Multi-Criteria Transmission Congestion Management by Load Curtailment and Generation Re-dispatch in a Deregulated Power System. Transaction of Institute of Electrical Engineering Japan, Volume 3 Pp 524-529. September 2008.
10 国際学会 A Mohd Isa, T Niimura, R Yokoyama; Multi Criteria Transmission Congestion Management by Load Curtailment and Generation Re-Dispatch in a Deregulated Power System. IEEJ-EIT Joint Symposium on Advanced Technology in Power Systems, November 2007. Bangkok, Thailand.
11 査読論文 A. Mohd Isa, T Niimura, R Yokoyama, H Magori: Combinatorial Explosion Mitigation Strategy for Large-Scale Dynamic Programming based on Inferior Solution Criteria applied to the Power System Expansion Problem (Part II), International Journal on Software Engineering. [Accepted]
12 査読論文 A. Mohd Isa, T Niimura, R Yokoyama, H Magori: K-Best Dynamic Programming Approach for Multi-criteria Generation Optimal Mix[Submitted]
13 口頭発表 International Science Camp. Power Systems and Reliability Planning November10-11th, 2007. Gunma, Japan.
14 口頭発表 Tokyo University Environmental Forum for International Students. Energy Policies. November 7th2008. Tokyo, Japan.
