90年代の財政運営と減税政策の評価

90 ᐕઍߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔ

ട ⮮  ਭ ๺

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㧔᣿ᴦᄢቇ᡽ᴦ⚻ᷣቇㇱᢎ᝼㧕

䈲䈛䉄䈮

 1990 ᐕઍೋ㗡ߪࡃࡉ࡞⚻ᷣߦࠃࠆᅢ⺞ߥ⒢෼Ⴧߦࠃࠅਛᄩ᡽ᐭߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ߇ᡷༀߩళߒ ࠍ⷗ߖߚᤨᦼߢ޽ߞߚޕߒ߆ߒ㧘ࡃࡉ࡞ߩ፣უߣߘࠇߦ⛯ߊ㐳ᦼߦࠊߚࠆ⚻ᷣૐㅅ߇ౣ߮⽷᡽⿒ሼߩ᜛ᄢ ࠍᷓೞൻߐߖߚޕ᥊᳇ኻ╷ߣߒߡⷐ⺧ߐࠇߚᐲ㊀ߥࠆ⽷᡽಴േߣᄢ᏷ߥᷫ⒢᡽╷߇⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍᖡൻߐߖߚ ৻࿃ߢ޽ࠆߎߣߪ⇼޿ߥ޿ޕ᡽ᐭߪ2011 ᐕᐲߦࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ㤥ሼൻࠍ᡽╷⋡ᮡߣߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘 ߘߩߚ߼ߦߪ㜞޿⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ߣᄢ᏷ߥᱦ಴೥ᷫߦߣߤ߹ࠄߕ㧘Ⴧ⒢߽ⷞ㊁ߦ౉ࠇߚ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ᔅⷐߣ⠨߃ ࠄࠇࠆޕ  1990 ᐕઍએ㒠ߩ⽷᡽⿒ሼߩ⚥Ⓧߣߎࠇߦ઻߁᡽ᐭ౏ௌߩ᜛ᄢߪ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߒߡᜬ⛯น⢻ߥ▸࿐ࠍㅺ ⣕ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ߞߚߩ߆㧘ߘࠇߣ߽዁᧪ߦ߅ߌࠆ⽶ௌߩ㄰ᷣน⢻ᕈࠍ៊ߥࠊߥ޿▸࿐ߢ޽ߞߚߩ߆㧘ߎߩ ߎߣࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕേቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒ㧔㐳ᦼ㊄೑߇ฬ⋡ᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ⁁ᘒ㧕ߦ޽ߞ ߡߪ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ࿁ᓳࠍߔߔ߼㧘ߎࠇ߇⿒ሼߦ㒱ࠄߥ޿ࠃ߁ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍ⛯ߌࠇ߫㧘౏ௌ ߩ᜛ᄢߪ໧㗴ߣߥࠄߥ޿㧔޿ࠊࠁࠆ࠼࡯ࡑ࡯᧦ઙ㧕ޕߒ߆ߒേቇ⊛ߦല₸ߥ⚻ᷣߢߪ㧘⃻࿷ߩ⽶ௌࠍ዁᧪ߩ ⽷᡽㤥ሼߦࠃߞߡ㄰ᷣࠍㅴ߼ߥ޿㒢ࠅ㧘⽷᡽ߪ⎕✋ߔࠆน⢻ᕈࠍ᦭ߔࠆޕߎߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍᎼ ߞߡߪ㧘ㆊ෰ߦ߅޿ߡ⤘ᄢߥℂ⺰⊛࡮ታ⸽⊛ߥ⎇ⓥ߇⫾Ⓧߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ ᧄⓂߢߪ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߔࠆᣂߚߥ⹏ଔߩ⹜ߺߣߒߡ㧘ᣢሽ⎇ⓥߢߪᔅߕߒ߽᣿␜⊛ߦᛒࠊࠇߡ޿ߥ޿㧘 ᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߒߚലᨐߩᬌ⸽ࠍ⹜ߺࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕߘߩߚ߼㧘Polito and Wickens(2007)ߢឭ ᩺ߐࠇߚᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍዉ౉ߒ㧘ࠊ߇࿖ߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⹏ଔࠍⴕ߁ޕᧄⓂߩ᭴ᚑߪએਅߩߣ߅ࠅߢ ޽ࠆޕᦨೋߦㄭᐕߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰߩേะࠍᢛℂߒ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߣ޿ߊߟ߆ߩ⇣ߥࠆᚻᴺߢ⸘▚ߐ ࠇࠆ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰߩផ⒖ࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߔࠆޕട߃ߡ㧘90 ᐕઍߩᷫ⒢᡽╷߇⽷᡽෼ᡰߦ෸߷ߒߚലᨐߩផ⸘ ࠍⴕ߁ޕߎߩᓟ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ㑐ߔࠆℂ⺰⊛ߥ⢛᥊ࠍ⺑᣿ߒߚᓟ㧘ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍዉ಴ߒ㧘 ߎߩᜰᮡߦၮߠ޿ߚ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ⹏ଔࠍⴕ߁ޕ *1981 ᐕᘮᙥ⟵Ⴖᄢቇ⚻ᷣቇㇱතᬺ㧘88 ᐕ╳ᵄᄢቇᄢቇ㒮⚻༡࡮᡽╷⑼ቇ⎇ⓥ⑼ୃੌ㧘2000 ᐕඳ჻㧔⚻ᷣቇ㧕ޕ㧔⽷㧕㔚ജਛᄩ⎇ⓥᚲਥછ⎇ⓥ ຬ㧘࿖┙␠ળ଻㓚࡮ੱญ໧㗴⎇ⓥᚲቶ㐳╬ࠍ⚻ߡ㧘⃻⡯ޕኾ㐷㧦ࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ࡮⽷᡽ቇ㧘⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇ㧘␠ળ଻㓚⺰㧘ੱญ⚻ᷣቇޕᚲዻቇળ㧦ᣣ ᧄੱญቇળ㧘ᣣᧄ⚻ᷣቇળ㧘ᣣᧄ⽷᡽ቇળޕ

1.㩷 ⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈱േะ䈫᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ

1.1㩷 ਛᄩ᡽ᐭ䈱⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈫ௌോ䈱േะ

1.1.1㩷 ৻⥸ળ⸘䈱෼ᡰ䈫⽷᡽⿒ሼ ߪߓ߼ߦ৻⥸ળ⸘ߩ෼ᡰߣ⽷᡽⿒ሼߩផ⒖ࠍᢛℂߔࠆޕ࿑⴫1 ߪ 1969 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩᱦ಴㗵ߣ⒅⒢࡮ශ⚕෼ ౉㗵ߩផ⒖ࠍ᫔ࠣ࡜ࡈߦ㧘߹ߚ౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩኻ GDP Ყࠍ᛬ࠇ✢ࠣ࡜ࡈߢ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧔޿ߕࠇ߽᳿ ▚ࡌ࡯ࠬ㧕ޕฬ⋡୯ߢߺߚᱦ಴㗵ߪ1980 ᐕᐲߩ 43.4 ళ౞߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕᐲߢߪ 85.5 ళ౞ߣ߶߷ 2 ୚ߩⷙᮨߦ Ⴧടߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘1980㨪2005 ᐕᐲߩ 25 ᐕ㑆ߩᐕᐔဋჇട₸ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣ 2.8㧑ߩિ߮ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕߎߩ 25 ᐕߩᦼ㑆ࠍ1980㨪92ᐕߣ1992㨪2005ᐕߩੑᦼ㑆ߦಽഀߒߡᱦ಴㗵ߩᐕᐔဋჇട₸ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘೨ඨ߇4.1㧑㧘 ᓟඨ߇1.5㧑ߣߥࠆޕ৻ᣇ㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ࠍߺࠆߣ 1980 ᐕߩ 26.9 ళ౞߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕߢߪ 49.1 ళ౞ߣផ⒖ߒ㧘 ห᭽ߦᐕᐔဋჇട₸ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣ2.4㧑ߦߥࠆޕߒ߆ߒߥ߇ࠄ೨ඨᦼ㑆ߩჇട₸߇ 6.1㧑ߣᱦ಴㗵ߩჇട₸ ࠍ਄࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒ㧘ᓟඨᦼ㑆ߢߪ㧙0.8㧑ߣ߻ߒࠈᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆޕߘߩ⢛᥊ߦߪ㧘᥊᳇ૐㅅߦ઻߁⒢ ෼ߩᷫዋ߿90 ᐕઍߦታᣉߐࠇߚᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩᓇ㗀ߥߤ߇޽ࠆ߇㧘ߎࠇߦߟ޿ߡߪᓟߢㅀߴࠆߎߣߣߒߚ޿ޕ  90 ᐕઍߦߪᱦ಴㗵ߩჇടߦኻߒߡ⒅⒢෼౉߇િ߮ߡ޿ߥ޿ߚ߼㧘ߘߩᏅ㗵ࠍၒ߼ࠆߚ߼౏ௌ㊄෼౉߇Ⴧ ടߒߡ޿ࠆޕ࿑⴫1 ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1979 ᐕߦ 6.0㧑߹ߢ᜛ᄢߒߚ߽ߩߩ㧘80 ᐕઍߩ ⽷᡽ౣᑪߦ઻߁ᱦ಴ᛥ೙߿ࡃࡉ࡞⚻ᷣߦ߅ߌࠆ⒢෼Ⴧߥߤࠍ෻ᤋߒߡ1991 ᐕᐲߦߪ 1.4㧑߹ߢૐਅߒߚޕ ߒ߆ߒ㧘ߎߩᲧ₸ߪߘߩᓟᕆㅦߦ਄᣹ߒ㧘1999 ᐕᐲߦ 7.5㧑ߦ㆐ߒ㧘2003 ᐕᐲߦߪ 7.2㧑ߩ᳓Ḱߣߥߞߚޕ ዊᴰ᡽ᮭߩ⊓႐ߦࠃࠆ࿖ௌ⊒ⴕߩᱤᱛ߼ࠍ〯߹߃ߡ߽2000 ᐕઍએ㒠7㧑೨ᓟߩ᳓Ḱࠍ⸥㍳ߒߡ޿ࠆߩߢ޽ ࠆޕߜߥߺߦ2005 ᐕᐲ㧔᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬ㧕ߢߪ㧘ᱦ಴㗵߇ 85.5 ళ౞㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬߇ 49.1 ళ౞㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉߇ 31.3 ళ౞ߢ޽ࠅ㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 6.2㧑ߦ߿߿ૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ಴ᚲ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷᡽⛔⸘䇹䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䇸࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚ᐕႎ䇹 ࿑⴫1䇭৻⥸ળ⸘䈱⽷᡽෼ᡰ䋨න૏䋺ళ౞䇮䋦䋩 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% ᱦ಴⸘ ⒅⒢ශ⚕෼౉ GDPᲧ ࿑⴫䋱㩷 ৻⥸ળ⸘䈱⽷᡽෼ᡰ䋨න૏䋺ళ౞䇮䋦䋩㩷 ࿑⴫㧝 ৻⥸ળ⸘ߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰ㧔න૏㧦ళ౞ޔ㧑㧕

1.1.2㩷 䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䈱ផ⒖  ⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍⷰኤߔࠆ႐ว㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩേะ߇㊀ⷐߦߥࠆޕ࠼࡯ࡑ࡯᧦ઙ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆⅣႺ ߢߪ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ߇㤥ሼߢ޽ࠇ߫㧘⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍ㜞߼ߦ⛽ᜬߔࠆߎߣߢ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ ᕈ߇⛽ᜬߐࠇࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕ  ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ౏ௌ㊄෼౉߆ࠄ࿖ௌ⾌ࠍ㒰޿ߚ߽ߩߣቯ⟵ߐࠇࠆޕ޿߹㧘ᱦ಴ߪ৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ ࿖ௌ⾌㧘ᱦ౉ߪ⒅⒢෼౉ߣ౏ௌ㊄෼౉߆ࠄߥࠆߣߔࠆޕߎߩߣ߈㧘৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉ߩᏅ߇ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝ ࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆޕߥ߅ߎߩ୯ߪ㧘౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߣ࿖ௌ⾌ߩᏅ㗵ߣ߽╬ߒ޿ޕ  1975 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩផ⒖ࠍߺࠆߣ 1986 ᐕᐲ߹ߢ⿒ሼ߇⛯޿ߡ߅ࠅ㧘1979 ᐕᐲߦ ߪ7.9 ళ౞ߩ⿒ሼߣࡇ࡯ࠢࠍ⸥㍳ߒߡ޿ࠆޕߘߩᓟ㧘1987 ᐕᐲ߆ࠄ 1992 ᐕᐲ߹ߢߪ㤥ሼߣߥࠅ㧘1991 ᐕ ᐲߩ㤥ሼߪ8.8 ళ౞ߦ㆐ߒߚޕߒ߆ߒ 1993 ᐕᐲએ㒠㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪౣ߮⿒ሼߦォ⪭ߒ㧘1999 ᐕᐲߦ17.2 ళ౞㧘2003 ᐕᐲߢߪ 19.8 ళ౞߹ߢ᜛ᄢߒߡ޿ࠆޕኻ GDP Ყߢߺߚࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ ⿒ሼ᏷ߪ㧘1999 ᐕᐲ߇ 3.5㧑㧘߹ߚ 2003 ᐕᐲߪ 4.0㧑ߢ޽ߞߚޕ 1.1.3㩷 ᡽ᐭௌോ䈱ផ⒖  2006 ᐕᐲᧃߩਛᄩ᡽ᐭߩ㐳ᦼௌോ㧔࿖ௌߣ⍴ᦼ⸽೛ࠍ㒰ߊ୫౉㊄ߩว⸘㧕ߪ 733.4 ళ౞㧘࿖ௌᱷ㜞ߪ 674.1 ళ౞㧔ߎߩ߁ߜ᥉ㅢ࿖ௌߩᱷ㜞ߪ531.7 ళ౞㧕ߦ㆐ߒߡ޿ࠆޕਛᄩ᡽ᐭߩௌോߩ߁ߜ㧘৻⥸ળ⸘߇⽶ᜂߔ ߴ߈㐳ᦼௌോߪ531.5 ళ౞㧘ߘߩ߁ߜ࿖ௌᱷ㜞ߪ 529.2 ళ౞ߢ޽ߞߚޕࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩᖡൻߦ઻ ޿৻⥸ળ⸘߇⽶ᜂߔߴ߈㐳ᦼௌോᱷ㜞߽Ⴧടߒߡ޿ࠆޕ1992 ᐕᐲᧃߢߪ 190.9 ళ౞㧘ኻฬ⋡ GDP Ყߢߺ ߡ߽39.5㧑ߦߔ߉ߥ߆ߞߚޕߒ߆ߒߎߩᓟ㧘ௌോᱷ㜞෸߮ߘߩኻ GDP Ყߣ߽ߦᕆჇߒ㧘1999 ᐕᐲᧃ 349.5 ళ౞㧘70.0㧑ߦ㆐ߒ㧘ߐࠄߦ 2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ߽ߘߩ௑ะߪᱛ߹ࠄߕ㧘2006 ᐕᐲᧃߩ㐳ᦼௌോ 531.5 ళ౞ ߪኻGDP Ყߢ 105.6㧑ߣߥࠅ㧘ฬ⋡ GDP ߩ᳓Ḱࠍ⿥߃ߡ޿ࠆޕ  ৻⥸ળ⸘߇࿖ௌ⾌ߣߒߡ⽶ᜂߔࠆ೑ሶᡰᛄ޿ߩ㗵ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘᡽ᐭௌോߩჇടߪ޽ࠆ߽ߩߩૐ޿㐳ᦼ೑ሶ ₸ߩߚ߼೑ሶᡰᛄ㗵ߪᛥ߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ1992 ᐕᐲߩ೑ሶᡰᛄ㗵ߪ 10.6 ళ౞ߢ޽ߞߚ߇㧘1999 ᐕᐲ߽߶߷ ⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹 ࿑⴫2䇭䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䈱ផ⒖䋨න૏䋺ళ౞䋩 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 ࿑⴫㧞 ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩផ⒖㧔න૏㧦ళ౞㧕

หߓ᳓Ḱߢ޽ࠆ10.5 ళ౞ߢ޽ࠆޕߘߩᓟ㧘೑ሶᡰᛄ㗵ߪߐࠄߦᷫዋߒ㧘2005 ᐕᐲߢߪ 7.0 ళ౞ߦߣߤ߹ߞ ߡ޿ࠆޕ

1.2㩷 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ

1.2.1㩷 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈱ផ⸘  ৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉ࠍ㐳ᦼ⊛ᚑಽߣ⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേߦಽ⸃ߒ㧘㐳ᦼ⊛ߥᚑಽࠍ߽ߣߦ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥ⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ⹜ ▚ߔࠆޕ㐳ᦼ⊛ᚑಽߩផ⸘ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ࡎ࠼࡝࠶ࠢ࡮ࡊ࡟ࠬࠦ࠶࠻࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯㧘ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯㧘 ߅ࠃ߮ࡌࡃ࡝࠶ࠫ࡮ࡀ࡞࠰ࡦಽ⸃ߩਃߟߩᣇᴺࠍ↪޿ࠆ 1)ޕߎࠇߦࠃߞߡផ⸘ߐࠇߚᱦ౉࡮ᱦ಴㗵ߪ㧘᥊ ᳇ᄌേߦ઻޿⍴ᦼ⊛ߦᄌേߔࠆᓴⅣ⊛ߥᱦ౉࡮ᱦ಴㗵ߣ㐳ᦼ⊛ߥᚑಽߣߦ඙ಽߐࠇࠆޕߘߩߚ߼ߩਃߟߩ ᣇᴺߩ᭎ⷐߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆ2)ޕ 㽲䊖䊄䊥䉾䉪䊶䊒䊧䉴䉮䉾䊃䊶䊐䉞䊦䉺䊷䋨㪟㪧 䊐䉞䊦䉺䊷䋬㪟㫆㪻㫉㫀㪺㫂㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪧㫉㪼㫊㪺㫆㫋㫋㩿㪈㪐㪐㪎㪀䋩㩷 HP ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߪᤨ♽೉࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ৻ቯߩṖࠄ߆ߐࠍᜬߟࠃ߁ߥ㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍ᛽಴ߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆޕ㐳ᦼ ᚑಽࠍ

g

t㧘⍴ᦼᄌേㇱಽࠍ

c

_tߣߔࠆߣ߈㧘(1)ᑼࠍ↪޿ߡ⍴ᦼᄌേㇱಽߩੑਸ਼ߩ✚๺ߣ㐳ᦼᚑಽߩ 2 㓏ߩ 㓏Ꮕߩੑਸ਼ߩ✚๺߇ᦨዊߦߥࠆࠃ߁ߦ

g

_tࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕ

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= − − − = T t t t t t T t t

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g

g

g

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1 2 2 1 1 1 2

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₍₁₎ ਄ᑼߢ㧘T ߪ᷹ⷰ୯ᢙ㧘dzߪ⺞ᢛࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߢ޽ࠅ㧘ᐕᐲ࠺࡯࠲ߩ႐วߦߪ

λ

=

100

߇ផᅑߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ 㽳䉦䊦䊙䊮䊶䊐䉞䊦䉺䊷㩷  ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߪ⁁ᘒⓨ㑆ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍផቯߔࠆ႐วߦ૶↪ߐࠇࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆޕᤨὐt ߦ߅ߌࠆ᷹ⷰ ୯ࠍ

x

_t㧘㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍ

x

_t㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേㇱಽࠍ

u

_tߣߔࠆߣ㧘(2-1)㧘(2-2)ᑼߢ⁁ᘒⓨ㑆ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ⴫ߔߎߣ߇ߢ ߈ࠆޕߎࠇࠍ↪޿ߡ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ⸘▚ߒߚޕ ᷹ⷰᣇ⒟ᑼ

x

_t

=

x

_t

+

u

_t (2-1) ㆫ⒖ᣇ⒟ᑼ

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₁

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ε

_t (2-2) 㽴䊎䊋䊥䉾䉳䊶䊈䊦䉸䊮ಽ⸃䋨㪙㪥 ಽ⸃䋬㪙㪼㫍㪼㫉㫀㪻㪾㪼㩷㪸㫅㪻㩷㪥㪼㫃㫊㫆㫅㩿㪈㪐㪏㪈㪀䋩㩷

ߎߎߢ↪޿ߚࡆࡃ࡝࠶ࠫ࡮ࡀ࡞࠰ࡦಽ⸃ߪ㧘Beveridge and Nelson(1981)ߦࠃߞߡ␜ߐࠇߚᣇᴺࠍ Newbold(1990)߇ല₸⊛ߦୃᱜߒߚಽ⸃ᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆޕBN ಽ⸃ߪᄌᢙߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ⏕₸⊛࠻࡟ࡦ࠼ᚑಽߣߘࠇ એᄖߩ৻ᤨ⊛ߥ⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേㇱಽߦಽ⸃ߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆޕ

1) ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆ႐ว㧘Giorno et. al.(1995)߿⚻ᷣડ↹ᐡ(1998)ߥߤߢឭ᩺ߐࠇ㧘ᦨㄭߩ⚻ᷣ⽷᡽⊕ᦠ㧔ౝ㑑ᐭ㧕ߥߤߢ߽೑↪ߐࠇߡ ޿ࠆᣇᴺ߽޽ࠆޕߎࠇߪ㧘ᱦ౉ߦߟ޿ߡᚲᓧ⒢㧘ᴺੱ⒢㧘㑆ធ⒢㧘␠ળ଻㓚⽶ᜂߥߤߦಽഀߒ㧘⒢෼ߩGDP ᒢജᕈࠍ᳞߼㧘ߎࠇߦẜ࿷⊛ GDP ࠍਸ਼ߓߡ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥᱦ౉㗵ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߥߤߩᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆޕૉߒ㧘ᚲᓧ⒢ߥߤߦߟ޿ߡߪᚲᓧಽᏓߥߤߦ㑐ߒߡᒝ޿઒ቯࠍ⟎ߊߥߤߩ⍴ᚲ߽⠨߃ࠄ ࠇࠆޕᦨㄭߢߪർᶆ࡮㐳᎑(2006)ߥߤ߇⹦⚦ߥಽᨆࠍ⹜ߺߡ޿ࠆޕ

t

B

Δ

߇ቯᏱߥㆊ⒟ߦߒߚ߇޿MA(п)ߢ⴫ߐࠇࠆߣߔࠆޕߎߩߣ߈㧘

Δ

B

_tߩ㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍ

Δ

B

_t㧘⍴ᦼᄌേ ㇱಽࠍ

c

_t㧘MA(п)ߩቯᢙ㗄ࠍ

μ

ߣߔࠆ㧔

c

_t

=

Δ

B

_t

−

Δ

B

_t㧕ޕNewbold(1990)ߪ㧘c ߇(3)ᑼߢ⸘▚ߢ߈ࠆ_t ߎߣࠍ␜ߒߚ3)ޕ

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= = −+ − − _{Δ −Δ −} − − − = p j p j i i t j t j p t B B c 1 1 1 1 ) ( ) 1 (

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 (3) ߥ߅㧘৻⥸ᱦ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߪp=1 ࠍ઒ቯߒߡ⸘▚ߒߚޕ 1.2.2 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈱േะ ৻⥸ᱦ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉ߩ㐳ᦼ⊛ᚑಽࠍ᳞߼ࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߎߣ߇ ߢ߈ࠆޕߎࠇߪ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߣ⁛┙ߦ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ઀ᣇߘߩ߽ߩߦࠃߞߡ᳿ቯߐࠇࠆ෼ᡰࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߢ޽ࠆޕߥ߅㧘 ᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⋧ኻ⊛ߥᄢ߈ߐࠍ⴫⃻ߔࠆߚ߼ẜ࿷⊛ GDP ߦኻߔࠆᲧ₸ࠍ⸘▚ߒߚޕ ࿑⴫3 ߪ㧘ߘߩ⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧔ߥ߅㧘⍴ᦼᄌേಽࠍട߃ߚታ㓙ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦߟ ޿ߡߪኻฬ⋡GDP Ყߢ␜ߒߡ޽ࠆ㧕4)ޕ  ߎࠇߦࠃࠆߣ1990 ᐕᐲߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1.6㧑ߢ޽ߞߚ߇㧘᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝ ࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻẜ࿷⊛GDP Ყߪ HP ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ 0.5㧑㧘ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ 1.2㧑ߣߎࠇࠃࠅૐߊ㧘 ৻ᣇBN ಽ⸃ߢߪ 1.7㧑ߣ߶߷᳓Ḱߢ޽ߞߚޕ1999 ᐕᐲߢߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყߪ㧙3.5㧑 ߦ߹ߢૐਅߒߚ߇㧘᭴ㅧ⊛ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪHP ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ㧙2.2㧑㧘ࠞ࡞ࡑࡦ࡮ࡈࠖ࡞࠲࡯ߢ 㧙2.6㧑㧘BN ಽ⸃㧙3.3㧑ߢ޽ߞߚޕߐࠄߦࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⿒ሼ߇ኻ GDP Ყߢࡇ࡯ࠢߢ޽ߞߚ 3) ৻⥸ᱦ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߪ p=1 ࠍ઒ቯߒߡ⸘▚ߒߚޕ 4) ẜ࿷⊛ GDP ߩ⸘▚ߪౝ㑑ᐭ(2003)ߦࠃࠆᣇᴺࠍេ↪ߒߚޕ ⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䈲⪺⠪䈱⸘▚䈮䉋䉎䇯 ࿑⴫3䇭᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ䋨ኻGDPᲧ䇮䋦䋩 -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴 Kalman HP BN ࿑⴫㧟 ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰ㧔ኻ㪞㪛㪧Ყޔ㧑㧕

2003 ᐕᐲ㧔㧙4.0㧑㧕ߪ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇ㧙3.1㧑㧘㧙3.2㧑㧘෸߮㧙3.7㧑ߣ⸘▚ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ㐳ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ േะࠍⷰኤߔࠆߦߪẜ࿷⊛ߥࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⷗ࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕએ਄ࠍ✚ว⊛ߦൊ᩺ߔࠆߣ㧘ㄭ ᐕߩታ㓙ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦᲧߴߡ㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᄌേߩᓇ 㗀ߦࠃߞߡ㧘߅ࠃߘ0.5㨪1.0㧑ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ᖡൻߒߡⷰኤߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣߦߥࠆޕ

2.㩷 90 ᐕઍ䈱ᷫ⒢᡽╷䈫⽷᡽෼ᡰ

2.1㩷 ᷫ⒢᡽╷䈱᭎ⷐ

 ೨┨ߢߺߡ߈ߚࠃ߁ߦ㧘90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡਛᄩ᡽ᐭ㧔৻⥸ળ⸘㧕ߩ෼ᡰߪߘࠇએ೨ߦᲧߴ⿒ሼၮ⺞߇᜛ᄢ ߒߡ޿ࠆޕߘߩ⢛᥊ߦߪ㐳ᦼߦࠊߚࠆ᥊᳇ૐㅅ╬߳ߩኻᔕࠍⴕߞߚ⚿ᨐߣߒߡ㧘౏౒੐ᬺߥߤߩ᡽ᐭᡰ಴ ߩ᜛ᄢߣ৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢᡽╷ߦࠃࠆ⒅⒢෼౉╬ߩᷫዋ߇޽ࠆޕ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߢߺߚ౏౒੐ᬺ⾌ߪ㧘1992 ᐕᐲߩ 9.7 ళ౞߆ࠄ1998 ᐕᐲߦߪ 13.0 ళ౞߹ߢ᜛ᄢߒߚ߇㧘ߘߩᓟዊᴰ᡽ᮭߥߤߦࠃࠆᱦ಴೥ᷫࠍฃߌߡ㧘2005 ᐕ ᐲߦߪ8.4 ళ౞ߦ߹ߢᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆޕ৻ᣇ㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߪ 90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡ߅߅߻ߨᷫዋ௑ะߦ޽ࠆޕᚲᓧ ߩિ߮ᖠߺߥߤߦࠃࠆ⒢෼ߩૐਅߦട߃ߡ㧘৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ߘߩᄢ߈ߥⷐ࿃ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕ  ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩേะࠍᝄࠅ㄰ࠆߣᲤᐕᐲߩ⒢೙ߩ⷗⋥ߒߦട߃㧘90 ᐕઍߦߪਃߟߩᄢ߈ߥ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇ ߚޕᦨೋߩᷫ⒢᡽╷ߪ1994 ᐕߦ╷ቯߐࠇߚ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢ޽ࠅ㧘1994㨪96 ᐕᐲߦ߆ߌߡ 5.5 ళ౞ⷙᮨߩᷫ⒢ࠍ ⴕ߁ߣ޿߁߽ߩߢ޽ߞߚޕߎࠇߦ⛯޿ߡ㧘1994 ᐕ 11 ᦬ߦߪ㧘ᚲᓧ⒢࡮૑᳃⒢ߩᕡਭᷫ⒢㧔ٌ3.5 ళ౞㧕㧘 ᶖ⾌⒢₸ᒁ߈਄ߍ㧔㧗4.1 ళ౞㧕ߥߤࠍᩇߣߔࠆో㕙⊛ߥ⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ᚑ┙ߒߚޕ1997 ᐕߩᶖ⾌⒢₸ߩᒁ߈ ਄ߍߦవ┙ߜ㧘୘ੱᚲᓧ⒢╬ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ1995 ᐕᐲ߆ࠄవⴕᷫ⒢߇ታᣉߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ  1998 ᐕߦߪᴺੱ⒢ᡷ㕟ࠍᩇߣߔࠆ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇ㧘ᴺੱ⒢₸ߩᒁ߈ਅߍߣߣ߽ߦ✚㗵 4.0 ళ౞ߦ਄ࠆ ᚲᓧ⒢ߩ․೎ᷫ⒢߇ታᣉߐࠇߚޕߐࠄߦ㧘1999 ᐕᐲߦߪᕡਭ⊛ߥᷫ⒢ߣߒߡ㧘୘ੱᚲᓧ⒢ߦ㑐ߒߡߪᦨ㜞 ⒢₸ߩᒁ߈ਅߍߣቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߩታᣉߦࠃߞߡ4.1 ళ౞ⷙᮨ㧘߹ߚᴺੱ⒢ߦ㑐ߒߡߪၮᧄ⒢₸ߩᒁ߈ਅߍ╬ߦ ࠃߞߡ2.5 ళ౞ⷙᮨߩᷫ⒢߇ⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆޕߎߩ߁ߜᚲᓧ⒢ߩቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߦߟ޿ߡߪ 2007 ᐕᐲߦᑄᱛߐࠇߡ ޿ࠆޕ  ᚲᓧ⒢ߦ㑐ߒߡߺࠆߣ㧘1994 ᐕߩ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢ 3.8 ళ౞㧘1995㨪96 ᐕᐲߩ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢߘࠇߙࠇ 2.0 ళ౞㧘 1994 ᐕߩᛮᧄ⊛ߥ⒢೙ᐲߩᄌᦝߦ઻߁ᚲᓧ⒢ᡷ㕟ߢ 2.4 ళ౞㧘1998 ᐕᐲߩ․೎ᷫ⒢ߢ 2.8 ళ౞㧘ߐࠄߦ 1999 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߢᲤᐕ3.0 ళ౞ߩᷫ⒢߇ⴕࠊࠇߚߎߣߦߥࠆޕએ਄ߪ޿ߕࠇ੍߽▚㧘⵬ᱜ੍▚ࡌ࡯ࠬ ߢ޽ࠅ㧘᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߣߒߡߤࠇߛߌߩ⒢෼ᷫߣߥߞߚ߆ࠍ♖✺ߦផ⸘ߔࠆߎߣߪ㔍ߒ޿ޕߒ߆ߒ㧘⒢೙ᡷ ᱜߩᓇ㗀߇⽷᡽෼ᡰߦߤߩ⒟ᐲߩᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߒߚ߆ࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆߦߪ㧘૗ࠄ߆ߩᣇᴺ߇ᔅⷐߣߥࠆ 5)ޕߘߎ ߢ㧘߿߿◲ଢߥᣇᴺߢߪ޽ࠆ߇㧘એਅߩᣇᴺߦࠃߞߡ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߦ߅ߌࠆ⒢෼߳ߩᓇ㗀ࠍផ⸘ߒߚޕ

2.2 ᷫ⒢䈮䉋䉎ᱦ౉ᷫ䈱ផ⸘ᣇᴺ

 90 ᐕઍߦⴕࠊࠇߚ⒢೙ᡷᱜߩᓇ㗀ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ᰴߩࠃ߁ߥᣇᴺߢផ⸘ࠍⴕߞߚޕ Ԙ੍▚ᦠ㧔᩺㧕෸߮⵬ᱜ੍▚᩺㧔᡽ᐭ੍▚᩺㧕ߦ⸥タߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ⒅⒢೙ᐲᡷᱜߦࠃࠆჇᷫ⒢ߩ୯ࠍ⒢ ⒳ߏߣߦ᳞߼ࠆޕ ԙ੍▚᩺㧔⵬ᱜ੍▚᩺㧕ߩ⒢෼⷗ㄟߺߦԘߩჇᷫ⒢ߩ㗵ࠍട߃ߡ㧘೙ᐲᡷᱜ߇ߥ޿ߣߒߚ႐วߩ⒢෼ ࠍ⒢⒳ߏߣߦ᳞߼ࠆޕ 5) ർᶆ࡮㐳᎑(2006)ߥߤ߽ෳᾖޕ

Ԛฦ⒢⒳೎ߦ᳞߼ߚ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߩ෼౉ߩ୯ߦ㧘ߘߩ⒢⒳ߦ߅ߌࠆ㧔੍▚㧗Ⴧᷫ⒢㧕㧛੍▚㗵ߩഀวࠍ ਸ਼ߓߡ㧘ᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߚ႐วߩߘߩᐕᐲߩ⒢෼㧔᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬ㧕ࠍផ⸘ߔࠆޕߘߩว⸘ࠍ㧘ᷫ ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩ⒅⒢෼౉㗵ߣߔࠆޕ ԛᱦ౉ᷫߩផ⸘ߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘᳿▚㗵㧔ታ❣㧕ߣᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩ᳿▚㗵㧔Ԛߩផ⸘୯㧕ߣߩᏅߣ ߔࠆޕ  એ਄ߩઁ㧘⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍ᳞߼ࠆߦߪᷫ⒢╬߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߦᔅⷐߥ౏ௌ㊄ߩ᳓Ḱ╬ߦߟ޿ߡ߽ផ⸘ߔࠆᔅ ⷐ߇޽ࠆޕߎࠇߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘ᰴߩࠃ߁ߦ⸘▚ߒߚޕ Ԝ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߩ౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߩ㗵߆ࠄԛߢ᳞߼ߚ᳿▚ࡌ࡯ࠬߩᷫ⒢㗵ࠍᒁ޿ߡ㧘ᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩ ౏ௌ㊄ߩᔅⷐ㗵ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆޕ ԝ࿖ௌ⾌߆ࠄᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߚ႐วߩ౏ௌ㊄෼౉㧔Ԝߩផ⸘୯㧕ࠍᒁ޿ߡ㧘ᷫ⒢߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐ว ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ᳞߼ࠆޕ  ߥ߅㧘ផ⸘ߦ޽ߚߞߡߪ2.1 ߢᢛℂߒߚᄢⷙᮨߥ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩߺߥࠄߕ㧘Ფᐕᐲߩᡷ㕟ߩᓇ㗀ࠍ⠨ᘦߒ㧘 1989㨪2005 ᐕᐲ߹ߢߩ⒢෼㗵ߩផ⸘ࠍⴕߞߚ㧔ߎࠇߦߪჇ⒢߽฽߹ࠇࠆ㧕ޕߘߩ⚿ᨐ㧘1989㨪2005 ᐕᐲߩ 17 ᐕ㑆ߦࠊߚࠆ⒅⒢෼౉ߩว⸘㗵ߪ 869.5 ళ౞ߦߩ߷ࠆ৻ᣇ㧘⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ߥ޿ߣߒߚ႐วߩ⒅⒢෼౉ߩ⚥ Ⓧ㗵ߪ943.3 ళ౞ߣߥࠅ㧘17 ᐕ㑆ߢ 73.8 ళ౞㧘⒅⒢෼౉ߩ߅ࠃߘ 7.8㧑߇ᷫ⒢ߐࠇߚߎߣߦߥࠆޕ  ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐วߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ㧔ኻฬ⋡ GDP Ყ㧕ߩ୯ࠍផ⸘ߒ ߚ⚿ᨐ߇࿑⴫4 ߢ޽ࠆޕᣢߦ⚫੺ߒߚࠃ߁ߦ㧘1990 ᐕᐲߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1.6㧑ߢ ޽ࠅ㧘90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡᰴ╙ߦ⿒ሼൻߒߡ޿ࠆޕ1994 ᐕᐲߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ㧙0.6㧑ߢ޽ߞߚ߇㧘 ⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߦߪ෻ኻߦ0.1㧑ߣ㤥ሼߢ޽ߞߚޕ߹ߚ㧘1999 ᐕᐲߪ㧙3.5㧑߹ߢࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⿒ሼߪ᜛ᄢߒߚ߇㧘⒢೙ᡷᱜ߇ߥߌࠇ߫㧙2.4㧑ߦߣߤ߹ߞߡ޿ߚߣផ⸘ߐࠇࠆޕ2003 ᐕᐲߦࡊ ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⿒ሼ߇ኻGDP Ყߢ㧙4.0㧑ߣࡇ࡯ࠢߣߥߞߚ߇㧘ห᭽ߦቯ₸ᷫ⒢╬߇ታᣉߐࠇߡ ޿ߥߌࠇ߫㧙3.2㧑ߢ޽ߞߚߣផ⸘ߐࠇߚޕ ⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮⒢೙ᡷᱜ䈏䈭䈎䈦䈢႐ว䈮䈧䈇䈩䈲⪺⠪䈱⸘▚䈮䉋䉎䇯 ࿑⴫4䇭ᷫ⒢᡽╷䈫䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䋨ኻGDPᲧ䇮䋦䋩 -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ታ❣୯ ⒢೙ᡷᱜ䈏䈭䈎䈦䈢႐ว ࿑⴫䋴㩷 㩷 ᷫ⒢᡽╷᩺䈫䊒䊤䉟䊙䊥䊷䊶䊋䊤䊮䉴䋨ኻ㪞㪛㪧Ყ䇮䋦䋩㩷

3.㩷 ⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ

3.1㩷 ⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ

3.1.1㩷 ℂ⺰⊛ᢛℂ  ᡽ᐭߪߘߩ⿒ሼࠍ᳗⛯⊛ߦჇടߐߖࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆߩߛࠈ߁߆ޕ⚻ᷣ߇േቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒߦ޽ࠆ႐ วߦߪ㧘ߎ߁ߒߚߎߣ߽น⢻ߦߥࠆޕേቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒߣߪ㐳ᦼ೑ሶ₸߇⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ ⁁ᘒߢ޽ࠅ㧘⾗ᧄࠬ࠻࠶ࠢ߇ㆊ೾ߦ⚥Ⓧߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ⚻ᷣߢ޽ࠆߣ⸃ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ 6)ޕ㐳ᦼ೑ሶ₸ߩ᳓ Ḱ߇౏ௌߩ೑࿁ࠅߣ╬ߒߊ㧘ߎࠇ߇⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠇ߫㧘଀߃⃻࿷ߩ᡽ᐭௌോߩ᳓Ḱ߇⤘ᄢߢ޽ ߞߡ߽㧘੹ᓟࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⛽ᜬߒߡ޿ߊߎߣߢ㧘ኻ GDP Ყߢߺߚ᡽ᐭௌോߩ᳓Ḱߪᰴ╙ߦ ዊߐߊߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߦߥࠆ㧔ߎࠇࠍ࠼࡯ࡑ࡯᧦ઙߣ޿߁㧕ޕ ߪߚߒߡߎ߁ߒߚേቇ⊛ߦ㕖ല₸ߥ⁁ᘒ߇㐳ᦼߦࠊߚߞߡ⛮⛯ߐࠇᓧࠆߩߛࠈ߁߆ޕㆊ෰ߩ࿖ௌߩ೑࿁ ࠅ㧘ታ⾰⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ߩേะࠍߺࠆߣ㧘೑ሶ₸߇ᚑ㐳₸ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆᤨᦼ߇㐳ߊ⛯޿ߡ޿ࠆߣߪ޿޿߇ߚ ޿ 7)ޕߘ߁ߢ޽ࠇ߫㧘േቇ⊛ߦല₸ߥ⚻ᷣߦ߅޿ߡߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ⛽ᜬߔࠆߛߌߢߪߥߊ㧘 ࠃࠅⓍᭂ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡߇ⷐ᳞ߐࠇࠆߎߣߦߥࠆޕߘߩ႐ว㧘᡽ᐭߪᲤᐕߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰࠍဋⴧߐߖࠆᔅⷐߪߥ ޿߽ߩߩ㧘⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߔᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕߔߥࠊߜ⃻࿷㧘⽷᡽⿒ሼ߇⊒↢ߒ᡽ᐭௌോ߇ ޽ߞߚߣߒߡ߽㧘዁᧪⊛ߦߪ⽷᡽㤥ሼࠍ↢ߺ಴ߒߡௌോߩჇടಽࠍ⋧Ვߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕߎߩὐࠍ⹦⚦ߦ ␜ߒߡ߅ߎ߁ޕ ᡽ᐭᡰ಴ࠍG㧘⒅⒢෼౉ࠍ T㧘᡽ᐭௌോࠍ B㧘᡽ᐭௌോߩჇಽ㧔౏ௌ㊄෼౉ߦ⋧ᒰ㧕ࠍٌB㧘೑ሶ₸ࠍ r ߣߔࠆ㧔ߎߎߢ೑ሶ₸r ߪ৻ቯߣ઒ቯߔࠆ㧕ޕt ᦼߩ᡽ᐭߩ੍▚೙⚂ߪ(4)ᑼߢ␜ߐࠇࠆ8)ޕ t t t t

rB

T

B

G

+

₋₁

=

+

Δ

                        (4) (4)ᑼࠍ዁᧪ߦะߌߡઍ౉⸘▚ࠍ➅ࠅ㄰ߖ߫㧘

¦

∞ = + + − ∞ → + + + − −

=

+

−

+

+

0 ) 1 ( ) 1 ( 1

(

1

)

[

]

lim

(

1

)

j t j j j j t j t j t

r

T

G

r

B

B

         (5) ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆޕ᡽ᐭௌോ߇⊒ᢔߒߥ޿ߣ޿߁ᮮᢿᕈ᧦ઙ㧔No Ponzi ᧦ઙ㧕ߪ(6)ᑼߢ␜ߔߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕ

0

)

1

(

lim

₊

( 1)

₌

+ + − ∞ → t j j j

r

B

(6) ߔߥࠊߜ㧘⃻࿷ߩ᡽ᐭௌോߪ዁᧪ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯㤥ሼߦࠃߞߡ⋧Ვߢ߈ࠆࠃ߁ߦ᡽ᐭ߇⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕ߁ߎ ߣߦࠃࠅ㧘⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߔߣ޿߁ߎߣߦߥࠆޕ 3.1.2 ⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ䈮㑐䈜䉎ታ⸽ಽᨆ  ᡽ᐭ߇⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߒߡ޿ࠆ߆ߤ߁߆ߦߟ޿ߡߩታ⸽⊛ߥಽᨆߪ㧘1980 ᐕઍ߆ࠄߐ߹ߑ߹

ߥᣇᴺߦࠃߞߡⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ⹦⚦ߦߟ޿ߡߪBohn(1995,2005)߿ Polito and Wickens(2007)ߦ⹦ߒ޿ߩߢ㧘 ߎߎߢߪߘߩ᭎⇛ࠍ⚫੺ߔࠆߦߣߤ߼ࠆޕ╙৻ߩᣇᴺߪ㧘Hamilton and Flavin(1986)ߦઍ⴫ߐࠇࠆᣇᴺߢ㧘 (5)ᑼߩฝㄝ╙ੑ㗄ߢ␜ߐࠇࠆ㗄ࠍࡃࡉ࡞㗄ߣߒߡ㧘ߎࠇ߇᦭ᗧߦ࠯ࡠߢ޽ࠆ߆ߤ߁߆ࠍᬌ⸽ߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ ࠆޕ╙ੑߩᣇᴺߪ㧘᡽ᐭᡰ಴ߣ⒅⒢෼౉߇㐳ᦼ⊛ߦ౒๺ಽ㑐ଥߦ޽ࠇ߫㧘ߘߩᏅߢ޽ࠆ⽷᡽෼ᡰߪቯᏱߣ 6) _{⹦⚦ߪ Abel etc.(1989)ࠍෳᾖޕ} 7) _{╩⠪ߩផ⸘ߢߪ㧘ㄭᐕߢߪ 1988㨪90 ᐕߩࡃࡉ࡞⚻ᷣߩ৻ᤨᦼࠍ㒰߈㧘೑ሶ₸߇⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍ਄࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ} 8) _{᡽ᐭߩ෼౉ߦߪߎߩઁ㧘ㅧᐊᮭ㧔Seignorage㧕ߦࠃࠆ⽻ᐊഃㅧ㧔money creation㧕ࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆ߇㧘ߎߎߢߪ⋭⇛ߔࠆޕ߹ߚ㧘೑ሶ₸} ࠍ৻ቯߣ઒ቯߒߚ߇㧘ߎߩ઒ቯࠍ✭߼ࠆߎߣߪኈᤃߢ޽ࠆޕ

ߥࠅ㧘⚿ᨐ⊛ߦ(5)ᑼࠍḩߚߔߣߔࠆ Trehan and Walsh(1988)ߥߤߦࠃࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆޕ╙ਃߪ㧘Bohn(1995)ߥ ߤߢឭ᩺ߐࠇߚᣇᴺߢ㧘⽷᡽⿒ሼ㧔ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯⿒ሼ㧕߇᜛ᄢߒߚ႐วߦ᡽ᐭߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬ ࠍᡷༀߔࠆࠃ߁ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆ߆㧘ߣ޿߁ⷞὐ߆ࠄ್ᢿߔࠆᣇᴺߢ޽ࠆޕ

 ࠊ߇࿖ߦ߅޿ߡ߽એ਄ߩᣇᴺࠍ↪޿ߚታ⸽ಽᨆ߇ⴕࠊࠇߡ߈ߚ 9)ޕࡃࡉ࡞㗄ߩሽ࿷ࠍᬌቯߔࠆߎߣߢ⽷

᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍᬌ⸽ߒߚ੐଀ߣߒߡߪFukuda and Teruyama (1994)߿࿯ዬ࡮ਛ㉿(1998)߇޽ࠅ㧘޿ߕ ࠇ߽ࠊ߇࿖ߩ⽷᡽ߪᜬ⛯น⢻ߢ޽ࠆߣ޿߁⚿⺰ࠍዉ޿ߡ޿ࠆޕ౒๺ಽಽᨆߩᚻᴺࠍ↪޿ߚട⮮(1997)ߪ㧘 ෻ኻߦᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪ⹺߼ࠄࠇߥ޿ߣ⚿⺰ߠߌߡ޿ࠆޕㄭᐕߢߪ᦭ജߥᬌ⸽ᣇᴺߣߥߞߚBohn(1995)ߩᣇᴺ ࠍ೑↪ߒߚ࿯ዬ(2000㧘2005)ߥߤ߽ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍุቯߔࠆ⚿⺰ࠍᓧߡ޿ࠆޕ

3.2 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ዉ಴

᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ㑐ߔࠆᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩᬌ⸽ߦ㑐ߒߡ⠨ᘦߔߴ߈ὐߣߒߡ㧘᡽ᐭ߇዁᧪ߩ᡽ᐭᡰ಴ߣ⒅⒢ ෼౉╬ߩ⚻〝ࠍࠦࡦ࠻ࡠ࡯࡞ߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߢ޽ࠆߚ߼㧘(5)ᑼߢ␜ߐࠇࠆ⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍ⃻࿷ᤨὐ ߢ⹏ଔߢ߈ߥ޿ߣ޿߁ߎߣ߇޽ࠆޕ⤘ᄢߥௌോࠍ⽶ߞߡ޿ࠆ᡽ᐭ߇੹ᓟ㧘⽷᡽෼ᡰߩ㤥ሼൻࠍⴕ߁ߣት⸒ ߒߚߣߔࠇ߫㧘ታ㓙ߦ㤥ሼ߇↢ߺ಴ߐࠇߥ޿ߣߒߡ߽㧘⃻ᤨὐߢߪᜬ⛯น⢻ߥ⁁ᘒߦ޽ࠆߣߺߥߐࠇࠆน ⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆߣ޿߁ߎߣߦߥࠆޕߎߩߎߣߪ㧘(5)ᑼ߇⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ೙⚂ߣߒߡචಽߥലജࠍ⊒ើߢ߈ ߥ޿ߣ޿߁ߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆ10)ޕ

Polito and Wickens(2007)ߪߎ߁ߒߚ⺖㗴ߦኻᔕߔࠆߚ߼㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜰᮡࠍឭ᩺ߒߚޕએਅ㧘ዊ ᢥሼߪታ⾰ൻߒߚᄌᢙࠍ␜ߔߣߔࠆޕ᡽ᐭᡰ಴ࠍ

g

_t㧘⒅⒢෼౉ࠍ

t

_t㧘᡽ᐭௌോࠍ

b

_t㧘GDP ࠍ

y

_t㧘ฬ⋡೑ ሶ₸ࠍ

R

_t㧘‛ଔ਄᣹₸ࠍ

π

_t㧘⚻ᷣᚑ㐳₸ࠍ

γ

_tߣߒ㧘߹ߚ㧘 t t t

R

r

π

+

+

=

+

1

1

1

 㧘

)

1

)(

1

(

1

1

t t t t

R

γ

π

ρ

+

+

+

=

+

 ߣߔࠆޕ(4)ᑼ߆ࠄ೑ሶ₸ߪนᄌ⊛ߢ޽ࠆߣߒߡ㧘(7)ᑼ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆޕ t t t t t

r

b

t

b

g

+

(

1

+

)

−1

=

+

(7) ߐࠄߦ(7)ᑼࠍ

y

_tߢ㒰ߒߡᢛℂߔࠆߣ 1 1

)

1

(

− −

+

+

−

=

t t t t t t t y t

y

b

y

t

y

g

y

b

ρ

(8) ߣߥࠆޕߎߎߢቯᏱ⁁ᘒࠍ઒ቯߒ㧘ቯᏱ⁁ᘒߦ޽ࠆᄌᢙ߆ࠄᷝ߃ሼt ࠍ㒰ߊߣ

y

t

y

g

y

b

+

−

=

ρ

(9) ߣߥࠆޕ(9)ᑼࠍ↪޿ߡ㧘(8)ᑼߦ㑐ߔࠆ৻ᰴߩ࠹ࠗ࡜࡯ዷ㐿ࠍⴕ߁ߣᰴᑼ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆޕ 1 1

ln

)

1

(

)

1

ln(

)

1

(

ln

ln

ln

− −

+

+

+

+

+

−

+

≅

t t t t t t t t t

y

b

y

t

b

t

y

g

b

g

c

y

b

ρ

ρ

ρ

    (10) 9) _{ߎࠇࠄߦ㑐ߔࠆࠨ࡯ࡌࠗߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘࿯ዬ(2004)߿੗ၳ࡮࿯ዬ(2007)ࠍෳᾖߐࠇߚ޿ޕ} 10) _{Bohn (1995,2005) ߩᣇᴺࠍ↪޿ࠆ႐วߦߪ㧘⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᆫ൓ࠍ⹏ଔߔࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߢ޽ࠆޕ}

)

1

ln(

)

1

(

ln

ln

ln

_ρ

_ρ

ρ

−

+

−

+

+

−

=

y

t

b

t

y

g

b

g

y

b

c

(11) ߎߎߢ

ρ

_t

≅

R

_t

−

π

_t

−

γ

_tߣߒ㧘േቇ⊛ߦല₸ߥ⚻ᷣࠍ⠨߃ࠇ߫

ρ

_t

>

0

ߢ޽ࠆߩߢ㧘(10)ᑼࠍ೨ᣇߦ⸃ߌ ߫(12)ᑼ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆޕ

E

_tߪᤨὐt ߦ߅ߌࠆᦼᓙ୯ࠍ␜ߔޕ

( )

t s t n s s n t n t t n t t

_E

_k

y

b

E

y

b

+ = − + + −

₋

¦

₊

¸¸

¹

·

¨¨

©

§

+

=

1

)

1

(

ln

)

1

(

ln

_ρ

_ρ

(12)

)

1

ln(

)

1

(

ln

ln

_t t t t t t

y

t

b

t

y

g

b

g

c

k

=

+

−

+

+

_ρ

+

_ρ

            (13) (6)ᑼߩᗧ๧ߢ⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇⛽ᜬߐࠇߡ޿ࠇ߫㧘(12)ᑼߩฝㄝ╙ 1 㗄ߪᮮᢿᕈ᧦ઙߣ⸃㉼ߐࠇࠆߩߢ㧘 (14)ᑼ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆޕ

( )

t s t n s s t t

_E

_k

y

b

+ = −

¦

+

−

=

1

)

1

(

ln

_ρ

(14)  ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩ⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ⋡ᮡߣߒߡ㧘ዋߥߊߣ߽዁᧪ߩ޽ࠆ৻ቯᦼ㑆ߦ߅޿ߡ⃻࿷ߩ᡽ᐭௌോ ߩኻGDP Ყࠍᖡൻߐߖߥ޿ߣߔࠆޕߎߩߣ߈㧘(15)ᑼߢ␜ߐࠇࠆᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆޕ t t n t

y

b

K

n

t

FSI

/

)

,

(

₌

, ₍₁₅₎ ߚߛߒ㧘 _t

( )

_{t s} n s s t t n n t

E

k

y

b

K

₊ = − −

₋

¦

₊

+

=

1 ,

(

1

)

ln

(

1

)

ln

_ρ

_ρ

ߢ޽ࠆޕ  ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ

FSI

( n

t

,

)

߇1 ߣ╬ߒ޿ߣ߈㧘዁᧪ߩ৻ቯᦼ㑆㧔

n

ᦼ㑆㧕ߦ߅޿ߡ㧘᡽ᐭௌോߩኻGDP Ყߪ⃻࿷ߣᄌࠊࠄߥ޿᳓Ḱߦ⛽ᜬߐࠇࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߔޕߎߩᜰᮡ߇ 1 ࠃࠅዊߐ޿ߣ߈ߪ᡽ᐭௌോߩኻ GDP Ყߪ⃻࿷ࠃࠅᖡൻ㧘ㅒߦ1 ࠍ⿥߃ࠆߣ߈ߪ⃻࿷ࠃࠅᡷༀߔࠆߣ⸃㉼ߢ߈ࠆޕ

4. 90 ᐕઍ䈮䈍䈔䉎⽷᡽ㆇ༡䈱⹏ଔ

4.1 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ䈱ᬌ⸽

4.1.1 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘ᣇᴺ

 ೨┨ߢ␜ߒߚPolito and Wickens(2007)ߦࠃࠆ⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ(15)ᑼࠍ↪޿ߡ㧘ࠊ߇࿖ߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߦ 㑐ߔࠆ⹏ଔࠍⴕ߁ޕ  ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߩផ⸘ߦ㑐ߒߡߪᰴߩࠃ߁ߥ೨ឭࠍ⟎޿ߚޕ(15)ᑼߦ޽ࠆࠃ߁ߦ㧘዁᧪ߩ৻ቯᦼ㑆ࠍቯ ߼㧘ߘߩᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ᡽ᐭᡰ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߩᦼᓙ୯ࠍቯ߼ࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕᦨೋߦቢో੍⷗ࠍ઒ቯߒ㧘⹏ ଔߔࠆᤨὐ߆ࠄ3 ᐕᐲవ߹ߢࠍ࠲࡯ࠥ࠶࠻ߣߒߡታ❣୯ࠍណ↪ߔࠆޕߔߥࠊߜ㧘1997 ᐕᐲߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩ⹏ ଔߦߟ޿ߡߪ1998㨪2000 ᐕᐲߩ᡽ᐭᡰ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉ߩታ❣୯ࠍᦼᓙ୯ߣߒߡ↪޿ࠆޕᰴߦ㧘ฦᄌᢙߩቯᏱ ⁁ᘒߩ୯ߪ㧘ផ⸘ᦼ㑆ࠍ1975㨪2005 ᐕᐲߩ 30 ᐕ㑆㧔ᜰᮡߩផ⸘ߪ 2002 ᐕᐲ߹ߢߩ 27 ᐕᐲ㑆㧕ߣߒߡ㧘 ߘߩᦼ㑆ߩᐔဋ୯ࠍ૶↪ߒߚޕ1975 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߣߒߚߩߪ㧘╙৻ᰴ⍹ᴤෂᯏߦ߅ߌࠆᣣᧄ⚻ᷣߩ᭴ㅧᄌൻߩ ᤨᦼࠍⷞ㊁ߦ౉ࠇࠆߣߣ߽ߦ㧘․଀࿖ௌ߇ቯ଀ൻߒߚᤨᦼࠍᗐቯߒߚߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆޕ

 ᔅⷐߥ࠺࡯࠲ߣߘߩടᎿߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘એਅߩࠃ߁ߦⴕߞߚޕᄌᢙߩታ⾰୯ߩ૞ᚑߦߟ޿ߡߪ GDP ࠺ࡈ ࡟࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߚޕߥ߅㧘࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚߇68SNA ߆ࠄ 93SNA ߦᄌᦝߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߚ߼㧘ߎࠇࠄߩធ⛯ࠍⴕߞ ߡታ⾰࿖ౝ✚↢↥♽೉ࠍ᳞߼㧘ߎࠇ߆ࠄ GDP ࠺ࡈ࡟࡯࠲ࠍ⸘▚ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ᡽ᐭᡰ಴㧘⒅⒢෼౉╬ߦߟ޿ ߡߪߎߩ࠺ࡈ࡟࡯࠲ߢታ⾰ൻߒ㧘ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ

FSI

( n

t

,

)

ߦᔅⷐߥᄌᢙߩ⸘▚ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆޕ೑ሶ₸ߦ ߟ޿ߡߪ࿖ௌ⾌ߦභ߼ࠆ೑ሶᛄ޿ߩ⾌↪ߣ೨ᐕߩ৻⥸ળ⸘߇⽶ᜂߔࠆ࿖ௌᱷ㜞߆ࠄ੐ᓟ⊛ߦ⸘▚ߒߚ୯ࠍ ↪޿ߚޕએ਄ߩ⚿ᨐ㧘1975㨪2005 ᐕᐲߦ߅ߌࠆ

ρ

ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ1.28㧑ߢᱜߩ୯ࠍߣࠅ㧘ߒߚ߇ߞߡ(12)ᑼߩ ᚻ㗅߇ㆡᒰߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇⏕⹺ߐࠇࠆޕ એਅߢߪ㧘ቢో੍⷗ߩ઒ቯߩਅߢⴕߞߚᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߩផ⸘⚿ᨐߣ㧘90 ᐕઍߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆ ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐วߦ⸘▚ߐࠇࠆหᜰᮡߩ⚿ᨐࠍ⚫੺ߔࠆޕߥ߅㧘ᷫ⒢߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐ว㧘 ߎࠇߦࠃߞߡ᥊᳇᜛ᄢലᨐ߇ታ⃻ߖߕ㧘࿖ౝ✚↢↥߿೑ሶ₸ߥߤߩࡑࠢࡠᄌᢙߩታ❣୯ߦᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߔน ⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆ߇㧘ផ⸘ߢߪߎ߁ߒߚᓇ㗀ߪ฽߼ߡ޿ߥ޿ޕ 4.1.2 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘⚿ᨐ  ࿑⴫5 ߪᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߩផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕᜰᮡ߇ 1 ࠍ⿥߃ߡ޿ࠆ႐วߪ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯ น⢻ᕈ߇ᡷༀߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߒ㧘1 ࠍਅ࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆ႐วߦߪᖡൻߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߔޕㆊ෰ߦ߅޿ ߡ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇ᦨ߽ᡷༀߐࠇߚᤨᦼߪ1987 ᐕᐲߢ޽ࠅᜰᮡߩ᳓Ḱߪ 1.37 ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕ1980 ᐕઍߪ߅߅߻ߨ1.20 ࠍ਄࿁ࠅ㧘⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇㜞߹ߞߚᤨᦼߢ޽ࠆޕߒ߆ߒߥ߇ࠄ㧘1990 ᐕઍߦ ౉ࠆߣᕆㅦߦૐਅߒ㧘1994 ᐕᐲߩ 1.07 ࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚᓟߪ㧘1 ࠍਅ࿁ߞߚ߹߹ߩ⁁ᘒߢ޽ࠅ㧘1997 ᐕᐲߦ 0.85㧘 2000 ᐕᐲߦߪ 0.80 ߹ߢૐਅߒߚᓟ㧘2002 ᐕᐲߢߪ 0.87 ߹ߢ࿁ᓳߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ߥ߆ߞߚ႐วߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍߺࠆߣ㧘߅߅߻ߨ਄⸥ߩផ⸘୯ࠍ਄࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ1997 ᐕᐲ ߩ᳓Ḱߪ0.88 ߢ޽ࠅ 0.03 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻㧘2000 ᐕᐲߩ୯ߪ 0.84 ߢߎࠇ߽ 0.03 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻㧘߹ߚ 2002 ᐕᐲߪ 0.91 ߢ0.04 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻㜞޿୯ߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕߔߥࠊߜ㧘⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߦࠃࠆ 90 ᐕઍߩ৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩᓇ㗀ࠍᜬ⛯ น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ߆ࠄߺࠆߣ߅ࠃߘ0.03 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ߢ޽ߞߚߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕ ⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䇸࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚ᐕႎ䇹ઁ ࿑⴫5䇭ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘ 0.6000 0.7000 0.8000 0.9000 1.0000 1.1000 1.2000 1.3000 1.4000 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ ᷫ⒢䈏䈭䈎䈦䈢႐ว ࿑⴫䋵㩷 ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘㩷 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6

4.2 VAR 䊝䊂䊦䉕↪䈇䈢ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ䈱ផ⸘  એ਄ߢߪቢో੍⷗ࠍ઒ቯߒߡ޿ߚ߇㧘᡽ᐭ߇ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮ޿ߡ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ߚߣߔࠆߣ㧘ߤߩ ࠃ߁ߥ㆑޿߇↢ߓࠆߢ޽ࠈ߁ޕߎߎߢߪ㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮߊᄌᢙߩ዁᧪ᦼᓙ୯ࠍ VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ೑↪ߒߡ ૞ᚑߒ㧘ߘߩ੍᷹୯ࠍ೑↪ߒߡᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆޕ VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ೑↪ߒߚ㧘዁᧪ߩᦼᓙ୯ߩ૞ᚑᣇᴺߪᰴߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆޕ(14)ᑼߩ⸘▚ߦᔅⷐߥᄌᢙࠍੑߟ ߩᄌᢙ⟲㧔ᄌᢙ⟲A㧔೑ሶ₸㧘‛ଔ਄᣹₸㧘ᚑ㐳₸㧕ߣᄌᢙ⟲ B㧔b/y㧘g/y㧘t/y㧕㧕ߦಽߌߡ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇߩ ᄌᢙ⟲ߏߣߦVAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍផ⸘ߔࠆޕផ⸘ኻ⽎ߪ 1993㨪2002 ᐕᐲߩ 10 ᐕᐲ㑆ߣߒ㧘VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪኻ ⽎ᐕᐲߩㆊ෰20 ᐕᐲ㑆ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ૶↪ߒߡផቯࠍⴕ߁ޕVAR ࡕ࠺࡞ߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ࡜ࠣᰴᢙߪੑᦼ࡜ࠣߣߒ ߚޕߒߚ߇ߞߡ㧘1993 ᐕᐲߦߟ޿ߡߪ 1973㨪93 ᐕᐲߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍኻ⽎ߦ VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍផ⸘ߒ㧘ߘߩ⚿ᨐ߆ ࠄ1994㨪96 ᐕߩᔅⷐߥᄌᢙߩ੍᷹୯ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆޕએ਄ߢᓧߚ੍᷹୯ࠍ߽ߣߦ㧘⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡ(15) ᑼࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆޕ  ࿑⴫6 ߪߎߩផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕ߅߅߻ߨ VAR ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ೑↪ߒߚㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦࠃࠆᜬ⛯น ⢻ᕈᜰᮡߪ㧘ቢో੍⷗ߦၮߊᜰᮡࠃࠅ߽ᄢ߈ߥ୯ࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ1997 ᐕᐲߩ୯ࠍߺࠆߣ㧘ቢో੍⷗ߦࠃࠆ ᜰᮡߪ 0.85 ߣ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪᖡൻߒߡ޿ࠆߣ⸘▚ߐࠇߚ߇㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮߠߊᜰᮡߢߪ 1.09 ߣᡷༀ௑ะࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ1998 ᐕᐲߪਔᜰᮡߣ߽ 0.89 ߣ৻⥌ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘ቢో੍⷗ߦࠃࠆᜰᮡߪᖡൻ௑ะ ࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒ㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߢߪᡷༀߦะ߆ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ2000 ᐕᐲߩᜰᮡߩ୯ߪߘࠇߙࠇ 0.80㧘0.94㧘 ߐࠄߦ2001 ᐕᐲߢߪߘࠇߙࠇ 0.82㧘1.01 ߣߘߩᏅߪᐢ߇ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ  ߎߩ⚿ᨐࠍߤߩࠃ߁ߦ⸃㉼ߔߴ߈ߢ޽ࠈ߁߆ޕวℂ⊛ᦼᓙ߇ᚑ┙ߖߕ㧘᡽ᐭߪ዁᧪ࠍቢోߦ੍⷗ߔࠆߎ ߣ߇ߢ߈ߥ޿ߩߢ޽ࠇ߫㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦၮߠ޿ߡⴕേߔࠆߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕ਄ߢ⷗ߚࠃ߁ߦㆡᔕ⊛ ᦼᓙߩ઒ቯߦߒߚ߇߁ߣߒߡ⸘▚ߒߚ႐วߩᣇ߇ቢో੍⷗ߩ႐วߦᲧߴᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߪ㜞ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕ ߎࠇߪ㧘᡽ᐭߪㆊ෰ߩ⿲൓ߦၮߠ޿ߚ್ᢿߦࠃߞߡ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍߒߡ޿ߚߣߒߡ߽㧘⃻ታߦߪߘࠇࠃࠅ߽෩ ߒ޿⚿ᨐߣߥߞߚߣ޿߁ߎߣߢ޽ࠅ㧘ㆊ෰ߩ⿲൓ߦߣࠄࠊࠇߕࠃࠅ෩ߒ޿್ᢿߩਅߢ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍⴕ߁ߴ߈ ߢ޽ߞߚߣ޿߁ߎߣߢ޽ࠆޕߎߩߎߣߪ㧘᡽ᐭߪᷫ⒢᡽╷߿᡽ᐭᡰ಴᜛ᄢ߇⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߔᓇ ⾗ᢱ䋺⽷ോ⋭䇸⽷ോ⛔⸘䇹䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䇸࿖᳃⚻ᷣ⸘▚ᐕႎ䇹ઁ ࿑⴫6䇭ቢో੍⷗䈫ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙ䈱Ყセ 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ቢో੍⷗ ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙ ࿑⴫䋶㩷 ቢో੍⷗䈫ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙ䈱Ყセ㩷 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6

㗀ࠍታ㓙ࠃࠅ߽ዊߐߊ⷗Ⓧ߽ߞߡ޿ߚߣ߽⸃㉼ߢ߈ࠃ߁ޕ

䈍䉒䉍䈮

 ᧄⓂߪਥߣߒߡ1990 ᐕઍએ㒠ߩ᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩേะࠍ㧘⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩⷞὐ߆ࠄᢛℂߔࠆߣߣ߽ ߦ㧘ቯ₸ᷫ⒢ߥߤߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ߎߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍ⠨ኤߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕ  90 ᐕઍࠍㅢߓߡ৻⥸ળ⸘ߩࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ௑ะ⊛ߦᖡൻߒ㧘ߘߩኻ GDP Ყߪ 1993 ᐕᐲߩ㧙 0.5㧑߆ࠄ 1999 ᐕᐲߦߪ㧙3.5㧑㧘2002 ᐕᐲߢߪ㧙4.0㧑ߦ᜛ᄢߒߡ޿ࠆޕߒ߆ߒ㧘᡽ᐭᡰ಴߿⒅⒢෼౉╬ߩ ⍴ᦼ⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᄌേߦ઻߁ᓴⅣㇱಽࠍ㒰޿ߚ㐳ᦼᚑಽࠍផ⸘ߒ㧘᭴ㅧ⊛ߥ⽷᡽෼ᡰ߆ࠄࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ ࡦࠬߩኻ GDP Ყࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣߘߎ߹ߢߪࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⿒ሼߪ᜛ᄢߒߡ߅ࠄߕ㧘ታ㓙ߩࡊ࡜ ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ᭴ㅧ⊛ߥࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߦᲧߴ߅ࠃߘ 0.5㨪1.0㧑ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ᖡൻߒߡⷰኤߐ ࠇߡ޿ࠆߣߺࠄࠇࠆޕ ᰴ޿ߢ㧘1990 ᐕઍߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩേะࠍ᭎ⷰߒ㧘৻ㅪߩᷫ⒢╬ߦࠃߞߡ 1989 ᐕᐲએ㒠ߩ 17 ᐕᐲ㑆ߢ⒢෼ ߩ7.8㧑߇ᄬࠊࠇߡ޿ߚߣផ⸘ߒߚޕ⒢೙ᡷ㕟߇ⴕࠊࠇߥ߆ߞߚߣ઒ቯߒߚ႐วߦߪ㧘਄ߢㅀߴߚࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪᅢォߒ㧘1999 ᐕᐲߢߪኻ GDP Ყߢ㧙3.5㧑ߢ޽ߞߚࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߪ㧘⒢೙ᡷ ᱜ߇ߥߌࠇ߫㧙2.4㧑ߦߣߤ߹ߞߡ޿ߚߣߺࠄࠇࠆޕ ᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ࠍㆡಾߦ್ᢿߔࠆߦߪ㧘᡽ᐭ߇⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ࠍḩߚߔࠃ߁ߦⴕേߒߡ޿ࠆ߆ߤ߁ ߆ࠍᬌ⸽ߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕߘߎߢ㧘Polito and Wickens(2007)ߦࠃࠆᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍ᳞߼㧘ㄭᐕߩേะࠍᬌ ⸛ߒߚޕ1980 ᐕઍߪߎߩᜰᮡߩ୯ߪ߅߅߻ߨ 1.20 ࠍ਄࿁ࠅ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪḩߚߐࠇߡ޿ߚ߇㧘ߒ ߆ߒߥ߇ࠄ㧘1990 ᐕઍߦ౉ࠆߣᕆㅦߦૐਅߒ㧘1994 ᐕᐲߩ 1.07 ࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚᓟߪ㧘1 ࠍਅ࿁ߞߚ߹߹ߩ⁁ᘒ ߇⛯޿ߡ޿ࠆޕ৻ᣇ㧘ᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߚ႐วߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡߪ㧘ታ㓙ߩᜰᮡߩ᳓Ḱࠍ߅ࠃߘ0.03 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻਄࿁ࠅᡷༀߔࠆ߽ߩߩ㧘ᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈࠍḩߚߔ᳓Ḱ߳ߩ࿁ᓳߦߪ⥋ࠄߥ޿ޕߘߩᗧ๧ߢߪ㧘ࠊ߇࿖ ߩ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߪᷫ⒢᡽╷߇ߥ߆ߞߚߣߒߡ߽ෂ߁޿⁁ᘒߦ޽ߞߚߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕߐࠄ ߦ㧘ㆡᔕ⊛ᦼᓙߦࠃࠅᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈᜰᮡࠍ⹜▚ߒߚߣߎࠈ㧘ቢో੍⷗ࠍ઒ቯߔࠆࠃࠅ߽㜞޿୯߇ᓧࠄࠇߚޕ ߎߩߎߣߪ㧘᡽ᐭߪ㧘ᷫ⒢᡽╷߿᡽ᐭᡰ಴᜛ᄢ߇⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍታ㓙ࠃࠅ߽ዊߐߊ⷗Ⓧ ߽ߞߡ޿ߚߣ߽⸃㉼ߢ߈ࠆޕ એ਄ࠍ߹ߣ߼ࠆߣ㧘ࡊ࡜ࠗࡑ࡝࡯࡮ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߩⷞὐ߆ࠄ 90 ᐕઍߦߪ᡽ᐭߩ⽷᡽෼ᡰߪ৻Ბߣᖡൻߒߚ ߇㧘ᷫ⒢᡽╷ߥߤߩ৻ㅪߩ⒢೙ᡷ㕟ߩᓇ㗀߽ήⷞߢ߈ߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒ㧘⽷᡽ߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߦ㑐ߔࠆࠃࠅㆡಾ ߥᜰᮡ߆ࠄߺࠆߣᷫ⒢᡽╷ߩᓇ㗀ߪߘࠇ߶ߤᄢ߈ߊߥߊ㧘90 ᐕઍߦߪ⽷᡽ㆇ༡ో⥸ߣߒߡᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈ߇⢿ ߆ߐࠇࠆⅣႺߦ޽ߞߚߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ

䋼ෳ⠨ᢥ₂䋾

੗ၳ೑ብ࡮࿯ዬਂᦶ(2007)㧘ޟ⽷᡽᡽╷ߩ⹏ଔޠ㧘ᨋᢥᄦ✬ޡ⚻ᷣ೙ᐲ⸳⸘ޢ╙ 1 ┨㧘ഹ⨲ᦠᚱޕ ട⮮ਭ๺(1997)㧘ޟ⽷᡽⿒ሼߩ⃻⁁ߣ᡽ᐭௌോߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈޠ㧘㔚ജਛᄩ⎇ⓥᚲႎ๔ Y97001ޕ ർᶆୃᢅ࡮㐳᎑ᜏੱ(2006)㧘ޟ⒢෼േะߣ⒢෼ᒢᕈ୯ߦ㑐ߔࠆಽᨆޠ㧘੩ㇺᄢቇ⚻ᷣ⎇ⓥᚲ㧘Discussion Paper No.0606ޕ ⚻ᷣડ↹ᐡ(1998)㧘ޟ⽷᡽෼ᡰᜰᮡߩ૞ࠅᣇ࡮૶޿ᣇޠ㧘ޡ೎ౠ࡮ࠛࠦࡁࡒ࠶ࠢ࡮࡝ࠨ࡯࠴ޢNo4㧘⚻ᷣડ↹ ᐡ⚻ᷣ⎇ⓥᚲޕ

࿯ዬਂᦶ(2004)㧘ޟ᡽ᐭௌോߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߩ⠨߃ᣇޠ㧘PRI Discussion Paper Series (No.04A㧙02)㧘⽷ോ✚ว᡽ ╷⎇ⓥᚲޕ ࿯ዬਂᦶ(2000)㧘ޟࠊ߇࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ࿖ௌߩᜬ⛯น⢻ᕈߣ⽷᡽ㆇ༡㧘੗ၳ೑ብ࡮ട⮮┥ᄥ࡮ਛ㊁⧷ᄦ࡮ਛ㉿ㅘ࡮ ࿯ዬਂᦶ࡮૒⮮ᱜ৻ޡ⽷᡽⿒ሼߩ⚻ᷣಽᨆ㧦ਛ㐳ᦼ⊛ⷞὐ߆ࠄߩ⠨ኤޢ㧘⚻ᷣಽᨆ࡮᡽╷ಽᨆߩⷞὐ ࠪ࡝࡯࠭16 ภ㧘pp.9-35ޕ ౝ㑑ᐭ(2003)㧘ޡᐔᚑ 15 ᐕᐲᐕᰴ⚻ᷣ⽷᡽ႎ๔ޢޕ ⷏ፒஜม࡮ਛᎹ⵨Ꮧሶ(2000)㧘ޟࠊ߇࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ᭴ㅧ⊛⽷᡽෼ᡰߩផ⸘ߦߟ޿ߡޠ㧘ᣣᧄ㌁ⴕ⺞ᩏ⛔⸘ዪ㧘 Working Paper 00-16 ⢈ᓟ㓷ඳ࡮ਛ↰㧔㤥↰㧕␽ሶ(1998)㧘ޟ⚻ᷣᄌᢙ߆ࠄၮ⺞⊛ᄌേࠍ᛽಴ߔࠆᤨ♽೉⊛ᚻᴺߦߟ޿ߡޠ㧘㊄Ⲣ ⎇ⓥ㧘ᣣᧄ㌁ⴕ㊄Ⲣ⎇ⓥᚲ㧘p.39-98ޕ

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