第 3 章 環境イノベーションに関する決定要因の実証研究
第 4 節 気候変動による病害虫被害への影響と水稲の収量/品質への影響に関する実証研
4.6 結論
72
防除対策が、米生産に対する気候変動の適応策の 1 つとして重要であると考えられる。
73
ムシが生息する西日本において、米の品質を低下させることが明らかとなった。
74 Appendix
表 Appendix 4.1 気温が水稲の収量に与える影響の推定結果
変数
気温
9-12(第一段階) -0.355 (0.758) -0.826 (0.784) 12-15(第一段階) 0.505 (0.511) 0.472 (0.53) 15-18(第一段階) -0.504 (0.434) -0.703 (0.448) 18-21(第一段階) -0.476 (0.455) -0.67 (0.471) 21-24(第一段階) -0.571 (0.491) -0.647 (0.51) 24-27(第一段階) -0.882* (0.518) -0.945* (0.538) 27-30(第一段階) -0.904* (0.54) -1.120** (0.557) 30-33(第一段階) -5.039*** (1.461) -5.400*** (1.484) 15-18(第二段階) -5.812*** (1.584) -6.018*** (1.648) 18-21(第二段階) -1.618*** (0.576) -1.518** (0.595) 21-24(第二段階) -0.075 (0.266) -0.04 (0.276) 24-27(第二段階)
27-30(第二段階) 0.221 (0.188) 0.2 (0.192) 30-33(第二段階) -1.133 (0.775) -1.018 (0.8) 9-12(第三段階) -2.553* (1.369) -2.817** (1.412) 12-15(第三段階) -1.201* (0.632) -1.386** (0.658) 15-18(第三段階) 0.11 (0.379) 0.033 (0.394) 18-21(第三段階) 0.101 (0.34) 0.049 (0.355) 21-24(第三段階) 0.125 (0.358) -0.021 (0.371) 24-27(第三段階) 0.242 (0.372) 0.181 (0.387) 27-30(第三段階) 0.42 (0.421) 0.468 (0.438) 30-33(第三段階) -1.74** (0.874) -1.526* (0.911) カメムシ被害率 45.848 (32.379)
ウンカ被害率 -53.143*** (12.65) いもち病被害率 -31.579*** (8.167) カメムシ被害率× -20.688 (38.741) ミナミアオカメムシダミー
観測数 R2
調整済みR2 F値
括弧内は頑健な標準誤差。
*、
**、
***、はそれぞれ10%、5%、1%水準で有意。
いずれのモデルも年次及び地域に関する固定効果を含む。
0.436 0.299 6.345***
病害虫変数なし
460
(1) 収量 (2) 収量
460 0.488 0.356 7.098***
病害虫変数あり
75
表 Appendix 4.2 気温が水稲の品質に与える影響の推定結果
変数
気温
9-12(第一段階) 0.341 (0.573) 0.397 (0.571) 12-15(第一段階) -0.455 (0.386) -0.382 (0.386) 15-18(第一段階) -0.509 (0.329) -0.433 (0.326) 18-21(第一段階) -0.685** (0.345) -0.618* (0.343) 21-24(第一段階) -0.914** (0.372) -0.892** (0.371) 24-27(第一段階) -0.721* (0.392) -0.724* (0.392) 27-30(第一段階) -0.877** (0.408) -0.880** (0.405) 30-33(第一段階) -1.005 (1.105) -1.403 (1.079) 15-18(第二段階) -0.197 (1.197) -0.393 (1.198) 18-21(第二段階) 0.476 (0.436) 0.342 (0.433) 21-24(第二段階) 0.213 (0.201) 0.184 (0.201) 24-27(第二段階)
27-30(第二段階) -0.108 (0.142) -0.096 (0.14) 30-33(第二段階) -1.944*** (0.588) -1.866*** (0.584) 9-12(第三段階) -0.993 (1.034) -0.806 (1.027) 12-15(第三段階) 0.451 (0.478) 0.489 (0.478) 15-18(第三段階) 0.134 (0.286) 0.161 (0.286) 18-21(第三段階) -0.142 (0.258) -0.141 (0.258) 21-24(第三段階) -0.128 (0.272) -0.072 (0.271) 24-27(第三段階) -0.176 (0.282) -0.142 (0.283) 27-30(第三段階) -0.678** (0.32) -0.643** (0.32) 30-33(第三段階) -2.84*** (0.665) -2.806*** (0.667) カメムシ被害率 21.561 (24.47)
ウンカ被害率 3.336 (9.57)
いもち病被害率 -4.816 (6.181) カメムシ被害率× -58.905** (29.413) ミナミアオカメムシダミー
逆ミルズ比 -45.745 (28.371) -34.486 (27.886) 観測数
R2
調整済みR2 F値
括弧内は頑健な標準誤差。
*、
**、
***、はそれぞれ10%、5%、1%水準で有意。
いずれのモデルも年次及び地域に関する固定効果を含む。
病害虫変数なし
0.531 0.415 9.068***
病害虫変数あり
0.420 8.544***
460 (1) 1等級比率 (2) 1等級比率
460
0.540
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