The Impact of EC Market Integration and East European Liberalization on Asia-Pacific Economies

The Impact of EC Market Integration and East European Liberalization on Asia‑Pacific

Economies

著者 OSABE Shigeyasu

出版者 Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University

journal or

publication title

Journal of International Economic Studies

volume 5

page range 79‑95

year 1991‑03

URL http://doi.org/10.15002/00002088

JoumaIoflntemationHuIEconomicStudics（1991）No.5.79-95 d

．l991ThclnstitutcofComparativcEconomicStudics,HoseiUniversity

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮ ＬＩＢＥＲＡＵｌＺＺＡＴＩＯＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ＰＡＣＩＦＩＣＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

ShigeyasuOSABE

Pm/bssor,FtzcM〕'０／ＥＣＯ"omics，ＨｏｓｅｉＵ"んe応jly，TbAyo

I，SimultauBeousOccurranceofHistoricalTransfOrmatiolns

TheoverthrowofsocialisminEastEuropeancountriessincethesecondｈａＩｆｏｆ ｌ９８９ｈａｓｐｕｔａｎｅｎｄｔｏｔｈｅＣｏｌｄＷａｒｅｒａ・Withthebeginningofl990,thedivision ofGennanywhichhadsupportedtheoIdpostwarorderabruptlydisappearedanda

"GreaterGennany，，ｃａｍｅｔｏｂｅｏｎｔｈｅ３ｒｄｏｆＯｃｔｏｂｅｒ，1990．ThePost-ＣｏｌｄＷａｒ ａｇｅ(thedisintegrationoftheSovietEmpire)andthePost-PostWarperiod(the constructionofanewEuropeanorder)areunfoldingsimuItaneouslyi、Europe，

whereWestEuropeancountriesareengagedinastruggleoverthecomingEEC marketintegrationinl992・InlessthanlOyears，Europecoｕｌｄｂｅｃｏｍｅｔｈｅｎｅｗ ｃｅｎｔｅｒｏｆｔｈｅworld；acenterwherethreehistorictransformationsareproceeding simulta､eously

ThestructuralfactorwhichhasbroughtaboutthesesimultaneoustransfOrma- tionsinEuropeisultimatelyduetoanenormousmetamorphosisofcapitalism undergoneinthel980s、Relativeeconomicimportancehasbeendrasticallyshifted fromheavyandtraditionalindustrialsectorssuchastheironandsteelindustryor shipbuildingtolight，high-technologicalindustriessuchasmicroelectronicsor biotechnology・Ａｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅ，thefinancialandinformationindustriessuchas independentresearchandconsultingfirmsandsoftwarecompaniesarealso expandingrapidly、Fromtheproductionprocesstothestageofconsumption，

passingthroughvariousdistributionnetworks，semiconductors，computersand telecommunicationsystemsarebeingwidelyintroduced．BefOremakingadecision onanoutputschedule，fOrexample，producersareforcedtocollectdetailed infOrmationonconsumers,demandfOrnewgoods・ＯｎｃｅconsumptionfOIlowed production；nowtheformercommandsthelatter・InfOrmationprocessingisnot limitedtoindustrialsectors，ｂｕｔａｌｓｏｐｅｎetrateseverynookandcomerofsociety So-called“valueaddedcommunicationnetworks，，areradicallychangingthe behavioｕｒｏｆｐｅｏｐｌｅ

Ｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｙｈａｓｂｅｅｎ“softened，，ｏｒｂｅｃｏｍｅ“serviceoriented，，andthesociety widely“informationized，，ｏｒ‘`infOnnationoriented，，、Todescribethisphe- nomenon，theJapaneseFinanceMinistryadvocatedanewEnglishterm

"softnomics”asearlyasl9831).Themetamorphosisto“softnomics，,is,inbrief,the

resultofthc“MicroelectronicRevolution，，、Consumersinanaffluentsociety diversifyanddifferentiatetheirneedssostronglythatsuppliersarefOrcedto

－７９－

manufactureawiderangeofproductsinrelativelysmalllotsizes・Butartisan productionmethodsortraditionalsmaIl-scaleproductionmethodscannotcompete withthesenewdemands；itbecomesnecessarytointroducea“quickresponse system，，ormoreflexiblemodeofmanufacturing，ｉｎｗｈｉｃｈａｐｌantcanshiftin

minutesfromtheproductionofonemodeltoanother2)．Theessentialpointof

"softnomics,，istointroducehighlydifferentiatedtechnologyontheexistingbaseof mass-productionlnordertomeetkeeninternationalcompetition，largecapital investmentsandintensiveresearchanddevelopmentarerequiredonacontmual

basis・

Thestandard-bearerｏｆthe“MicroelectromcRevolution，,ｗａｓJapan,whichhas notonlydeveloped“flexiblemanufacturing,，butalsoexportedwidelythe“Kanban cardsystem,,orjust-in-timeproductionsystemwhichdependsheavilyon infOnnationprocessingDuringthel980s，developingcountrieshadseena deteriorationinlivingstandards､Ｆｏｒexample,percapitaincomeinLatinAmerica haddecreasedbyl0％andinSouthemAfricaby25％overthedecade､Thel980s couldbecalledthe“missingdecade,，、OnlytheEastAsiandevelopingcountries exhibitedexceptionalgrowthAsitisclearlyshownbythedifferentgrowthratesof intemationaltradebetweenmainregions(Tableｌ),presentlythemostdynanmc

TableLGeographicalDistributiouuofWorIdTrade

share(％）growth｢ate(％）

1980１９８８1980～1988

形％％形形％ ６１０１６８５２１３８７０６ １１１ ’一一

１５５７３０１１０５３６５９ ●●●●の●●●●●●●●●７６６４６４４４４５６４２０ ２ ４８８５４２４５１０２８８０ ■●●ｐ●●●□●●●●巳●１０９７７５４３３３２１１１ ３１

lntra-WcstEurope

Asia-Pacific-NorthAmenca Intra-Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific-WEurope N・America-QWEurope

lntra-N・America

lntra-SovietUnion＆Ｅ・Europe N・Ａｍｅｒｉｃａ－Ｃ，＆ＳＡｍｃｒｉｃａ Ｗ・Ｅｕｒｏｐｅ－Ｓ．Ｕ、＆EEurope W，Europe-Africa

W・Europe-MiddIcEast

Asia-Pacifｉｃ－ＭｉｄｄｌｃＥａｓｔ

Ｗ・Europe-C．＆ＳＡｍｃｒｉca Asia-Pacific-SU．＆ＢＥｕｍｐｅ Source:化施Ｓｅ砥or,ＳｃｐＬ１９９Ｏ，ｐ、４５，

growthpoleintheworldistobefOundintheAsia-PacificreglonwhereJapanhas stimulatedduringthisdecadeitsrapidindustrializationJapanhasexportedlabour intensivemanufacturmgtoAsiandevelopingcoｕｎｔｒｉｅｓａｎｄａｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅ

Ⅱnportedconsiderablylargeamountsoftheirmanufacturedgoodsaswellasfoods andrawmaterials･AcrossthePacificbasin,Japan，theUnited-States,Canada,ｔｈｅ

－８０－

ＴＨＥＩＭｐＡＣｒＯＦＥｃＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＯＲＡＴＩｏＮＡＮＤＥＡｓＴＥＵＲｏＰＥＡＮＬＩＢＥＲＡＬＩｚＡＴＩｏＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ＰＡＣＩＦＦＩＣ ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

ＮＩＥＳａｎｄＡＳＥＡＮｃｏｕｎｔｒｉｅｓａｓｗｅｌＩａｓＡustraliaandNewZealandareboth

fUriouslycompetingwitheachotheraswellasengaginginextensivecoOperationin manyareassuchasmanufacmrings，marketings，financialtransactions，and researchanddevelopment．

“Esprit,,,theEuropeanStrategicProgramforResearchandDevelopmentmthe lnfOnnationlndustry,wasformulatedinl984bytheCommissionoftheEECasa

ratherdesperateresponsetothisAsianchaUenge3)．ThisisthefirstEuropean

projectfOrcooperativeresearchamongthelargercorporationsintheinfOrmation industry､ＴｈｅａｉｍｉｓｔｏｃａｔｃｈｕｐｗｉｔｈＪａｐａｎａｎｄｔｈｅＵＳ.，andmoreovertorestore

toEuropeacompetitiveedge・Moreimportantly,intennofa``catchupstrategy,,，

theSmgleEuropeanActwasconcludedinl986amongthemembercountries・This actpromisesthefUllintegrationofEECmemberstates'marketsbefOretheendof

l992・Thishistoricalexperimentinmarketmtegrationgavetheappearanceofan offensiveposturcviWi-WSthewideIyperceivedAsianchallenge4)．

Ｏｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｈａｎｄ，theoverthrowofsocialismisalso，inessence，ｄｕｅｔｏｔｈｅ

“MicroelectronicRevolution，，､Duringthel970s,socialistcountriescouldnarrowly indulgeintheiIlusionthat`socialismcancatchupwithcapitalismandexceedit，，

partlythankstothetwooilcrisesduringwhichtheSovietUnionprofitedfromthe rapidincreaseofpetroleumpnces,whiletheWesterndevelopedcountriessuffered severelyfrom“stagHation，,bythissamepriceescalation・Butinthel980s,sociaIist countriescouIdnotpreventbreakingdownwhenconfrontedwiththeoverpowenng pushfrom“SoftnomiCs，，、Citizenswereshockedtodiscoverthroughvariousmedia suchasTVs，ＶＣＲｓ，orundergroundpublications，thestrikmgcontrastsbetween thewealthyandliberallifeintheWesta､dtheirownmiserableandsuffOcati､g one・Asthemoststrikingexample，thenewlycreated“GreaterGermany，,was broughtintobeingbytheEastGermanCitizens，eagemessforlibertyandwealth・

Peopleabandonedatlasttheirmiserablebarracks-likestateandpressedfOrthe rapidannexationofEastGermanytoWestGermany

Thestructuralfactorwhichengenderedthesimultaneousoccurrenceofthese

threehistoricaltransfOrmations；theoverthrowofsocialism，thebirthofthe GreaterGermanyandmarketintegrationinl992,is,therefOre,themetamorphosis ofcapitaIisminthel980s，thatis，``softnomics，，producedbythe“Microelectronic Revolution"・ItmaybesaidwithoutmuchexaggerationthattheAsia-Pacific region，especiallyJapan，wasprimarilyresponsiblefOrthesehistoricchangesin

Europe・Ｉｔｉｓｔｒｕｌｙｔｈｅｅｎｄｏｆａｎａｇｅ．

11,“１１９２，，ａＢＤｄｔｈｅＮｅｗＲｏｌｅｏｆＥＣｉｎＥｕｒｏｐｅ

Apartfromthestructuralfactormentionedearlier，itisGorbachevwhopulled thetriggeronEastEuropeansociaIismandconsequentlypromptedthebirthof

GreaterGermany・Abandoningtheso-called“BrezhnevDoctrine,,whichdenies

anysocialistcountryfUllsovereignty，headoptedahJjSsezｿ２JjrepolicyfOrEast Europe・ThispolicychangecamepartlybecauseGorbachev,onfacingthethreatof bankruptcyfＯｒｈｉｓｐｒｏｇｒａｍｏｆｐｅ花smjAUz，wasobIigedtoslashmilitary expenditureandtoinviteaninflowofwestemcapitalandtechnology・Ｔｈｅchange

－８１－

camealsobecauseofGorbachev,sstronglyEuropeanorientedcharacter・He dreadfullyanxiouslesttheSovietUnionshouldbeleftbehindintheｐｏｓｔ“1992,, Europeandynamismwhichisexpectedwitheverincreasingconfidence・Itcanbe saidwithoutmuchexaggerationthat“1992,,ｈａｓｐｕｔａｎｅｎｄｔｏｔｈｅＣｏｌｄＷａｒｅｒａａｎｄ ｔｈｅＰｏｓｔＷａｒｐｅｒｉｏｄ

Ｕntilthemidl980s，Europe，ｃｏｍｐａｒｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅＵＳ、ａｎｄJapan，hadbeen characterizedbybeingcaughtin“Euro-pessimism，，；especiallyafterthesecondoil crisisinl979Unemploymentrateshadheldfastatveryhighlevels，growthrates hadremainedslow，andintemationalcompetitivenesshadcontinuedtodecIine Butsincethen，theEEChadengagedinrestructuringtheEuropeaneconomy throughprofOundrefOnnsofindustriaIrelationsandtheadoptionofmarket orientedpolicies・Ｎｏｗ,，Euro-pessimism，，ｈａｓｔｕｍｅｄｉｎｔｏ“Euro-dynamism，,、

Ａｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅ，“1992,，asatargetfOrfinaIunificationwasagreeduponin l986・ButexternalcountriesliketheU・ＳａｎｄＪａｐａｎｃｏｎｓｉｄｅｒｅｄｉｔａｔｆｉｒｓｔａｓa fantasticideawhichwasnotUkelyｔｏｂｅｒｅａｌｉｚｅｄＥｖｅｎａｔｔｈｅＥＥＣｓｕｍｍｉｔon RhodesinDecemberl987,onecouldnotmakeconfidentprojectionsfOrsuccessin

"1992,,becauseoftheobviouslysevereconHictofmterestsamongthemember states・ThiswastrulythegloomiestChristmasc〃roLJ妃toEuropeanintegratiom ButatanextraordinarysummithastilyheldinBrusselsinFebruaryl988,therewas anarrowagreementastothemostimportantstructuralreforms:abroadreduction

inagriculturalexpenditures，theexpansionofregionaldevelopmentfUndsandthe

increaseinrevenueceilingofcommunitybudget・Ｓｍｃｅｔｈｅｎ，ｔｈｅｄｒｅａｍｏｆ“1992,, ｈａｓｓｕｄｄｅｎｌｙｃｏｍｅｒｅａＬＡｓａｒｅｓｕｌｔｏｆthegovemmentalagreements，the environmentforbusinesshaschangedIntenseM＆Aactivityandcooperative technicalandfinancialtie-upsarenowspreadingacrossbordersamongEuropean bigbusinessesespeciallyinGermanyandFrance・Nationalchampionsarebeing selectedandoligopolisticindustrialstructuresarenowbeingpromoted

NoｔｏｎｌｙｔｈｅＵＳ・orJapanbutalsoAsiancountrieslikeMalaysiaorSingapore areissuingwamingsagainsta‘`FortressEurope,，whichcouldpreventextemal countriesfromreachingtheEECmarket・AmericanandJapanesecorporationsare tryingframicallytoobtainafootinginEuropebeforel992・ExtemalasweUas intemalbigenterprisesaremakingadashfortheintensiveM＆Ａｒace・

Theeffectofmarketintegrationhasbeenanalysedbyvariousresearchers・

Amongothers,theCeccAj"jReporj,initiatedbytheEECCommission,givesavery optimisticpredictionthateconomiesofscaleresultingfrommarketintegrationwill raiseEuropeanGDPby4.25-6.5％inthemediumterm,andifmembercountries adoptdesirableeconomicpoliciesalongwiththcmarketintegrationpTogram，they willreceiveadditionalmacroeconomiceffectswithtotalGDPincreasingbya further７％5)．ButotherestimatesgivemorepessimisticresultswithinternalGDP riSingｂｙ３．２－５．７％whilethemedium-termimprovementintheexternalbalance

wouldbeｏｎｌｙ１％6).RemfOrcingthislastpoint,anotherstudyattemptstoestimate

theimpactoftheEECmarketintegrationontherestoftheworld,suggestingthat thepolicywouldproduceareductioninthegrowthratefortherestoftheworldby 0.73％７).nliswouldbecausedbyatradediversioneffectontheEECimportsora shiftofimportsfromextemalcountriestootherEECmembercountries・Ｉｎｔｈｉｓ ｃａｓｅ，accordingtoothercalculations，considerabledeclineinextra-EECimports willbeseenforofficemachinery(66-68％),motorvehicles(41～64％),artificial

－８２－

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮＬＩＢＥＲＡＩＪｚＡＴＩＯＮＯＮＡＳ１Ａ－ＰＡＣＩＦＦＩＣ ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

fibres（48-58％)，fOotwear（25～35％)，carpets（20～24％)，ａｎｄelectrical

householdappliances（24％)8)．Withtheseanalysis，concemsover“Fbrtress Europe，，expressedbyextemaIcountriesareeasilyunderstoodnottobesimply

sentimentalreactionstotheunknown．

InthefieldoftextUesandgannents,theEECalreadyhasbilateralagreements with26textUeexportingcountriesundertheMFA（MultifibrcArrangement)．

MultUateralnegotiationsbetweenexportingandimportingcountriesｌｉｍｉｔｔｈｅ ａｎｎｕａｌｇｒｏｗｔｈｒａｔｅｏｆｔｅｘｔｉｌｅｉｍｐｏｒｔｓｔｏｔｈｅＥＥＣｍａｒｋｅｔ，whilebilateral arrangementsimpoSc“regionalshares,，orexportquotasfromeachexporting countrytoeachimportingnation・Gennanytakesthelargestregionalshare,２５％，

fOllowedby21％ｆｏｒｔｈｅＵ.Ｋ､，16.5％ｆＯｒＦｒａｎｃｅａｎｄ13.5％fOrItalyinl9879)．

InadditiontothefOnnalmulticountryarrangements，ａｃｌａｕｓｅｏｆｔｈｅＴｒｅａｔｙｏｆ Ｒｏｍｅ(Articlell5)canbeusedtopreventimportsfromanextemalcountry､1,

1988,ＤｅｎｍａｒｋａｎｄＷｅｓｔＧｅｒｍａｎｙｍａｄｅｎｏｕｓｅofthisclause,butsevencountries

madelimiteduseofit;theBeneluxcountriesuseditagainstshirtsfromHongKong

andTaiwan；PortugalagainstmotorcyclesfromJapan；ａｎｄＧｒｅｅｃｅａｎｄｔｈｅＵ.Ｋ、

againstdollar-zonebananas・Fourcountrieshavemadeconsiderableuseofthis

clause：Franceuseditin52casesincludinｇｃｏｌｏｕｒＴＶｓｅｔｓｆｒｏｍＪａｐａｎａｎｄＳｏｕｔｈ

Korea；shirtsfromChina，HongKongandSriLanka；Ireｌａｎｄｈａｓｕｓｅｄｉｔｉｎ３３

ｃａｓｅｓ;Italyin20cases;andSpaininl7cases・Fordevelopingcountries,almostall

ofthetargetsoftheEuropeanimportrestrictionareconcentratedonnon-MFA

textilegoodssuchasshirts,underwear,gloves,sweaters,andparkas,butforJapan

andNIEScountries,theyaredirectedagainstmanufacturedgoodssuｃｈａｓＴＶｓ,car radios，ＶＣＲｓ，sewingmachines，ballbearings，andmotorvehicles・

ThesecondtermoftheJacquesDlors，CommissionstartedinJanuaryl989and hasattachedconsiderableimportancetoadvocatingfreetrade・ButAsian developingcountriescannotstillfearsofbeingshutoutfromtheenlargedmarket becausethe“FortressEurope”could，ｔｈｅｙbelieve，easilybecomeviabIe altemativewhenevercircumstancesrequireit・TherealquestioniswouldtheEEC becomemoreprotectionist？Thismaydepend，ｆＯｒｔｈｅｔｉｍｅｂｅｉｎｇ，uponthree factors；thefUtureprospectsfOrintemationalbusinessfluctuations，thedegreeof unity,actuallyachieved,after“1992”amongmemberstates,andfinallytheextent ofrestructuringofEuropeanindustry1o)．

ThelastfactoristhemostuncertainSinceEastEuropeancountrishavestarted tomakeasplendidcomebacktomaintainingmarketeconomies,ｔｈｅＥＥＣｉｓｇｏｉｎｇ

ｔｏｂｅｃｈａｒｇｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈetaskofsupportingthishistoricretum・ＡｔｔｈｅＡｒｃｈＳｕｍｍｉｔ ｈｅｌｄｉｎＰａｒｉｓｉｎＪｕlyl989，theEECwasappointedasthecoordinatoroffinancial

assistancefbrPolandandHungarythatwiIIbeprovidedby24developedcoulutries・

ＩｔｉｓｔｈｅｆｉｒｓｔｔｉｍｃｔｈａｔｔｈｅＥＥＣｗａｓａssumcdapoliticalroleontheinternational

stage;befOrethisitscharacterhadbeenlimitedtothepurelyeconomic・Worsestill，

withthefailureofperestroMEaan。ｔｈｅoutburstofnationalistconHicts，acrisis surroundingthedisintegrationofthe“SovietEmpire,,appearsimminent､ＴｈｅＥＥＣ ｗｈｉｃｈｉｓｌｏｃａｔｅｄｃｌｏｓｅｂｙｔｈｅSovietUnionwillbeobligedtopromptlyorganize

financialaidfOritinordertoavoidpossiblecalamities11〕．

Consideringtheseproblems，ｉｔｉｓｖｅｒｙｕｒｇｅｎｔｔｏｂｒｉｎｇａｂｏｕｔａｎｅｗEuropean ordertofaccuptothisPost-PostWarorPost-ColdWarperiod,ThemostfCasiblc

picturefOrthisnｅｗｏｒｄｅｒｍｕｓｔｂｅｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｔｗｏｓｅｔｓｏｆｃoncentriccircIeswiththe

-83-

economyasthefirstsetandpoliticsasthesecondset・Concemingtheeconomy,the EECwitha340miUionpopulation，incIudingthatofformerEastGermany，will fOrmthecoresupportingthreeoutercircles・ThefirstinnercircleiscalledtheＥＥＡ (EuropeanEconomicArea）whichcomprisesacommonmarketwiththefree exchangeofgoods,money,labour,ａｎｄservicesbetweentheEECandthe6-nation EFTAwitha30millionpopulationThemiddlecirclewillbeprovidedbyatreaty ofassociationbetweentheEECandEastEuropeancountrieswithl40million

peoplcItisexpectｅｄｔｈａｔｓｏｍｅｏｆｔｈｅｌａｔｔｅｒｗｏｕｌｄｂｅａcceptedasmember

countriesoftheEECinthefuture・Finally，theoutercirclewouldbeestablished withtheSovietUnionthroughtechnicalandfinancialaid・Ａｔｔｈｅｌａｓｔｓｕｍｍｉｔｉｎ ＨｏｕｓｔｏｎｉｎＪｕｌｙ,1990,EECmemberstatealreadyproposed＄１５０biIlionaidOne ofthemostimportantinstitutionsfOrtbisPost-ColdWarordercouldbethe

EuropeanBankfOrReconstructionandDevelopmentwhichistostartoperationin

LondoninnextApril・ThisbankwillberesponsibleprincipallyfOrundertaking investmentinsurancefortheEastEuropeanregionandtheSovietUniontoassure

acreditlinefromWestemprivatefinancialinstitutions12)．

Concemingthesecondsetofconcentriccirclesforpoliticsandsecurityconcems，

withNATOandtheWarsawPactlosingtheirmjso〃。'α"rethefOrmationofanew

Europeanorderbecomesveryurgent;butitisnotyetsoclearIydefined,compared

withtheneweconomicorderdiscussedabove・Accordingtopositionsscheduledby

FranGoisMitterandandfolIowingthisbyJacquesDlors，inearlyl990，anew Europeanpoliticalorderisvaguelyemergingasfollows：ｔｈｅＥＥＣａｎｄｔｈｅＥＦＴＡ

ｃｏｕｎｔｒｉｅｓｗｉｌｌｆOrmtheEuropeanFederationwhichisencircledbytheEuropean ConfederatioｎｍａｄｅｕｐｏｆａｌｌｃｏｕｎｔｒｉｅｓｉｎＥｕｒｏｐe、Thelattercanbeconsidered

almostthesameastheEuropeanCommonHousealreadyproposedbyGorbachev、

Forthetimebeing,ＣＳＣＥ(ConferencconSecurityandCooperationinEurope）

whichencompasses34countries,incIudingtheUS・ａｎｄCanada,wouldprovidea sortofmilitaryforuｍｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅＮＡＴＯａndWarsawPactmembercountries、

Inaddition,ｔｈｅＥＥＣ,whichhadbeenmovingtoenlargeitsfUnctionsfromthe

purelyeconomicbyincIudingpolitics，could，ｉｎｔｈｅｌｏｎｇｒｕｎ，assumecollective

defenseinsteadｏｆ，orasasupplementto,ｔｈｃＮＡＴＯ、ThusthenewEuropean

politicalandsecurityorderwillbehaveastructureofconcentriccirclesmadeupof

theEuropeanFederationasinnercircleandtheEuropeanConfederationasouter circlewiththｅｏｒｉｇｉｎａｌＥＥＣａｓｔｈｅｃｏｒｅ･

ThefOrmationofaGrcaterEuropewiIlnotbesoeasyintheshortrun・Because

inEastEuropeancountries,thereexistmanydifficultproblemstoberesolvedsuch

aspoorinfrastructure，outdatedproductiveequipment，outrageousenvironmental

pollution,and,abovealLstate-controloricntedmentalityamongeconomicagents・

TheconditionsfOrsuccessinintegratingtheWcstandtheEastwouldprimarily

dcpendontheprogressofEastEuropeanreforms，thedevelopmentofastrategy byWestEuropeanenterprisesfOrdealingwithEastEuropeanfirms，andthelevel

ofWestEuropeanzealfOrdevelopmentassistance、Ａｔａｎｙｒａｔｅ，thebirthofa GreaterEuropecouldreawakenhistoricalframesofreferenceandcreateasenseof

Euro-centralismamongEuropeansl3).ThecountriesoftheMaghreb，blackAfrica

andtheMiddleEastfearmoreandmorelesttheyshouldsufferfromthe devastatingeffCctsofaninwardlookingEuropeincommerce，investment，and

especiallyaidAsiandevelopingcountriescannotescapefromthisfear．

－８４－

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮＬ１ＨＥＲＡＬＩＺＡＴＩＯＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ＰＡＣＩＦＦＩＣ ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

ⅡH，AsianConcernsover“1９９２，，

Ｗｈｅｎ“1992,,ｃｏｍｅｓtrue，itwillfOllowtheoverthrowofsocialismandthebirth

ofGreaterGermany､Facingrapidchanges,Asianpohticalleadershaveexpressed

thefearthata“FortressEurope,，wouldresultfromthesechanges,ａｎｄtheoutflow

ofcapitalmvestmentandgrantsfromdevelopedcountriestodevelopingcountries，

especiallytoAsiancountries，woulddeteriorateLastMay，SingaporePrime

MinisterLeeKuanYewmadeatourofEuropeancountries,France,ｔｈｅＵ.Ｋ・and

WestGennany,andappealedtowesternfirmstocontinueinvestinginAsia､Atthe

"SouthSummitConference-G15，，ｈｅｌｄiｎKualaLumpurlastJune,theMalaysian

PrimeMinister,Ｄｒ・MahathirMohamad,speakingasthevoiceoftheThirdWorld countries，wameddevelopedcountriesnottoshifttheircapitalmvestmentand

aidesfromtheSouthtoEastEurope14)．

AccordingtotheBankfOrlnternationalSettlements，thisprocesshasalready started(Table２).Sincel988,EastEuropeancountrieshavebecomｅｔｈｅｍａｉｎ

Ｔａｂｌｅ２．BorrowilbgfmmBISReportingBanks

】Ｐ卜

Sou頤e：ＢｊＳＡ""ｌｍｌＲ叩○㎡１９９０，Ｐ、１３２．

groupofborrowers,with,ｉｎ1989,theSovietUnion($7.1billion),theGerman DemocraticRepublic($１２billion),Bulgaria($0.8billion),andCzechoslovakia(＄

7.1billion）astheprincipalborrowersofnewfUnds、Onthecontrary，Latin Americanborrowingfromwesternbankscontractedsharply，largelyasaresultof

debtconversionoperations・Thustheflowofintemationalfinancehasbecome

increasinglypolarizedbetweenEastEuropeancountriesinexpansionandLatin Americancountriesindecline・AsiancountrieshavemaintainedbasicaIlythesame position，withsomecountriesshowingaslightreduction（mostlyChinaand

Taiwan）andothersshowingaslightadditionofnewdrediL

AsfOrtraderelationsbetweenAsiancountriesandtheＥＥＣ，theJapanese

marketshareoftotalEECexportsinl989was5､2％，fOrtheNIESitwas5､4％and

fortheASEANcountries(exceptSingapore)itwas2.0％・Witbrespccttoimports，

Japantook10.5％，ｔｈｅＮＩＥＳ6.596ａｎｄｔｈｅＡＳＥＡＮ２､5％・ThetotalshareofEaSt

－８５－

changes,excludingexchangerateeffCcts

1982 1983 1984 1985 1”６ 1987 1988 1989

StockS atend-

1989 ｉｎｂｉｌＵｏｎｓｏｆＵＳｄｏⅡams

０６２８１６２１７７４

●●●、巴□■●●●●

６４８９２００Ｊ１Ｊ９

３

１’

１’一一 ７１９２８００３００羽

^１

●●□●●Ｂ■■■●の ２１８６３甲５Ｊ６３５ ^{’一 一１} ５０２９５Ｊ０イ００２ ｓの●●、■◆●□■● ２１１８３勺８２Ｉイ８

^{一２ １}

３７２０７９６８９３ｌ 私ａ０ＬＬ４０１００４ ^一｜’Ｉ ２７５１５７０Ｊ２８４ 弧ａ０ａＬａ仏２００４ ^一一’１ ４２２１３イ８５０Ｊ０ ●●●●●●の●の■● ７３０９９８３５６７９ ^{一可 一’一一} ９０５９１２７８７７５ ２８ａ８几ＺＬＬｕａ弘 ^{刊イ｜｜ ’’一} ３９４７５００Ｊ１Ｊ１ ２５１７２６５６７イ０ ●●◆●▲Ｂ■●●⑤● 羽ｗｍ銃迦塑巧釘巫〃Ｆ

^{７ １}

１６０６０６６Ｊ１３３

Non-にportilDgdevelopedcotmlTies EastemEu”PＣ

ＯＰＥＣ

Ｎｏｎ－ＯＰＥＣＬＤＣｓ q/Mbich:“Ｕ２'7Ａme'7ｍ

CｿbiJUq nziwa〃

０１ﾉie｢八s、

八ｍと口 ＭｄヒルＥｎｓｔ Totalbo面owing

TYHbIe3・EastAsianShareinExtra-EECTrade

(％）

塗iill典jlTTmTIi

^Import

1985１９８６１９８７１９８８１９８９ 100１００１００１００１００

６．４９．４１０．５１１．０１０．５

４．７６．８６．３６．９６．５

１．８２．２２．３２．４２．５ ExtTa-EEC

Japan NIES＊

ＡＳＥＡＮ

ｔｏｔａｌ

Source:ＯＥＣＤ,MolzrﾉMySmrjS"cFQ/Fb花jgluTm“

Note：＊Thailand，Malaysia，Indonesia，andthcPhiIippines・

Asiancontrieswas12.6％fOrEECexports,and19.596forEECimports(TabIe3)．

AnumberoffactorssuggestthatthereexistsconsiderablevulnerabilityinAsian‐

Europcantraderelations・First,theimportanceoftheAsianregioninEECtrade

remainslimitedandthatofJapanoccupiesabouthalfSecond，forAsia-EEC trade，thereisseriousimbalancebetweenimportsandexports，theformerbeing twotimesaslargeasthelatterinl988Third,themajoritemsofexportfromAsia toEuropehavechangeddrasticallyduringlastdecadefromfOodsandraw materials（rice，manioc，timber，ｏｒrubber）tomanufacturedgoods（textiles，

clothing,eIectricandeIectronicproductsorvehicles)，withtheimportanceof

manufacturedproductsincreasingrapidlyfrom２９％oftotalAsia-EECexportsin l980to５３％ｉｎ1988.ThistrendcouldpresumablybeexpandedThetradetiesare notonlythininquantity，butalsochangingsorapidlyinkind；furiouscomplaints areboundtobearｏｕｓｅｄａｍｏｎｇｔｈｅＥＥＣｎａtions．

Table４．FbreginDirectlnvestmentfbrtheASCANCountries(localcurrenCy）

Ｔ、幻50,ｍ。

（Bahtmio）

1986１”７

Phnippi頤s Ohousamdpcsos）

19871968,997.

Singapoに

（S$mio）

1986１９町 Malaysia

（Ｍ$mio）

1986１９８７ Indouue罰ａ

（Rupiahmioy 1g861妬Ｗ

ｎｏｖ・’987●

1,189.61,448.0西,211.2輿,400 492.8601.1Ｕ4,421.0２３コ4８ 443.4543.5904.35,025 204.8241.06,9006oｏ６ｏ９０Ｕ６ｏｏ

－３，４Z7.3酉,775.3 ５８．１230.1591.34,141.5 １７．１６Ｌ３７４ｑ00,724.3 五コ且６３．１481.64,416.7 800.717,640.6

324.65,458.9 128.41,021.9 161.62,242.4 loOal

JaPan US．

ＥＥＣ

14.017.1１７．２１６．７刀.４．．１２．７．．

EECSharcs（兜）２０．２１２．７

Some:ＥＥＯASEAN唾latioIus,intheCommissicnofEC,Elumpehq/bmqLiD",ｎｏ､虹,1982．

Notes：CcmTUunIndvc

●ＯＥＥＣ＋EFTA

APrfllD88:lUS$＝1948,Ｚ１ＩｎｄＲｕｐｉａｈｌＵＳ$＝1,g951Singapoに＄

ｌUSS＝2,5745Ｍ811＄１ＵＳ$＝25,210Ｂａｈｔ ｌＵＳ$＝21902”PhiI・pcsos

－８６－

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮＬＩＢＥＲＡＬＩＺＡＴＩＯＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ＰＡＣＩＦＩＩＣ ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

EuropeancapitalinvestmentinSouthEastAsiahasincreasedduringthel980s、

1,1987,EuropeaninvestmentsrankedsecondafterJapaninlndonesia，Malaysia，

ThailandａｎｄｔｈｉｒｄａｆｔｅｒＪａｐａｎａｎｄｔｈｅＵ・SinthePhilippinesandSingapore (Table4)EuropeancountricspIaytheroleofmajorinvestorsinSouthEastAsia，

buttheinvestmentsarelargelybasedonvulnerabletraderelationsmentioned above・ＴｈａｔｉｓｏｎｅｏｆｔｈｅｒｅａｓｏｎｓｗｈｙＳｏｕｔｈＥastAsiancountriesareconcemed abouttheshiftfromAsiatoEastEuropeincapitalinvestmentandaid、

IntheASEANcountries,ｐerhapsthelargestfearsarecausedbytheunification ofGermanyandconsequentlythebirthofaGreaterEurope，inwhichWest EuropeancountrieswillshifttheirtradeandcapitalinvestmentfromAsiatoEast Europe．’、particular，GreaterGermanywillprobablyhavetofOcusmoreand

moreitsenergytowardstheEast、First，ａｆｔｅｒｔｈｅｕｎification，thefinancialcharge fOrreconstructionoffOrmerEastGermanyiscontinuingtoexpandrapidly,forthe

conditionofitsinfrastructuresandproductiveequipmentisrevealedtobeworse

thanexpected、GreaterGermanyisfOrcedtoconcentrateitseffOrtsonthislong andseveretaskofrebuildingSecond，thereistheimpactonMiddIeEuropean countrieswhichonceformedtheAustro-HungaryEmpireandwascomprisedof

multiplelanguages，culturesandreligions・Afterthedestructionofthe“Iron

Curtain",areinvigorationofthetraditiona１Ｍ蛇/eHmpα(MiddleEurope)inthis regionbecomesfcasiblcThird，fOrmerEastGermany，accordingｔｏａｎ

ａｒｒａｎｇｅｍｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅＣＯＭＥＣＯＮ，hadsuppliedtotheSovietUnion4096eachof thatnation,sdemandfOrmedicalequipment，agriculturalinstruments，and chemicals；athirdoftotaldemandfOrgarments，andaconsiderableshareof militaryequipmentuses・GreaterGermanyhastotakeoverthesedutiesand

consequentlywilltoweraboveaIIotherWestEuropeancountriesastradepartner

andinvestoｒｉｎｔｈｅＳｏｖｉｅｔＵｎｉｏｎ

ＷｈｅｎｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＫｉｎｇｄｏｍｈａｄｅｎｔｅｒｅｄｉｎｔｏｔｈｅＥＥＣｉｎｌ973,ＷestGennany

andFrancefilledthevacuumcreatedbytheBritishtradeshiｆｔｆｒｏｍＡｓｉａｔｏｔｈｅ

ＥＥＣ・MakingacompansonoftheASEANcountries，exportdestinationsbetween

l960andl988，ｔｈｅＵ.Ｋ・fellfromitsoverwhelmingpositioｎａｔ４８％toaaImost

half,ａｔ２５％・Onthecontrary，WestGermanyexpandeditssharebyl０％points from23％ｔｏ32％andFranceincreasedby8％pointsfrom5％tｏ13％(Table5)．

ThisdrasticchangereflectsprincipallyBritishentrancetotheEECand，ａｔｔｈｅ ｓａｍｅｔｉｍｅ，rapiddeteriorationofitshomeeconomicintensity・Ifthebirthof GreaterGermanybringsaboutconsiderabletradeandcapitalinvestmentshifts fromAsiatoEurope，canwefindanycountrywhichwiIIactａｓＷｅstGermanyor

Francedidinl970s？

Concemingthisissue,onebilateralsetoftiesshouldbementioned：Francehas

begunrecentlytostrengthcnhcrrclationshipswithVietnamandbigbankslikethe

Soci6teGen6raleortheBanquelndo-SuezopenedrepresentativeofficesinHanoi

anｄＨｏＣｈｉＭｉｈｎＣｉｔｙｗｈｉｃhwiIIprovideanimportantmeanstoimprovethe investmentconditionsinVietnamlnaddition，theFrenchgovernmentdecidedto resumeofficialloansafteraneightyearintelTuptionandthelMFwillbegintooffer

financialsources15).ＴｈｅＵ.Ｓ､isalsochangingitsattitudevな-'一vjSVietnam,taking

intoaccounttheimprovementofAmerican-Sovietrelations・Thuspeacemovesin

lndo-Chinaarenowbeginningtohavesomeimpact，ｂｕｔｉｔｗｉｌｌｔａｋｅｍｕｃｈｍｏｒｅ

ｔｉｍｅｔｏｂｅａｒｆｒｕｉｔｉｎｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｆｉｅｌｄ

－８７－

Ｔａｂｌｅ５．ＤｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆＥＥＣ－ＡＳＥＡＮＴｍｄｅｂｙＥuropeanCOunhy

EECexporttoASEAN

TbtalW・GermanyGreeccSpainFranceltaIyNetherlandtheU．Ｋ、

1060

1970

1980

1988

００００ ＭⅢ伽㈹１１１１

27.2

26.7

27.7

25.7

０．３２．８１０．５９．６ ０．４５．２１１．９１１．４ ０．４３．５１４，９10.5 0.5４．２１３．４９．７

14.2

13.2

13,7

14.9

27.3

22.6

21.8

22.6

ＥＥＣｉｍｐｏＴｔｆｒｏｍＡＳＥＡＮ

、＆

Source：Eurostat，Ｅ】『蛇r"ﾛﾉ刀adF,SmtiF(、ヨノｙｂｍＢｏｏＡ．

ThewithdrawalofEuropefromAsiawillnecessarilyreinfbrcetheJapanese presenceinSouthEastAsianregionThisisnotdesirableeithertoSouthEast AsiannationsortoJapanPrimeMinisterLeeKuanYwe，Ｂ〃わ"tetoatourof Europeancoutries，pointedoutthat，“Iftheworldtendstowardseconomicａｎd tradingblocsandAsiaisfOrcedtoｅｎｔｅｒｉｎｔｈｅ`Yenbloc，，thatwouldbecomean appleofdiscor｡，，、Filthermore，ａｓｔｈｅＥａｓｔ－Ｗｅｓｔｃｌｅｍ"rereachesAsia，power balanceintheAsia-PacificregionwillberadicallychangedTheMalaysianDeputy ForeignMinister,MrAbduUahFadzilwamedofpossibiliｔｙｔhatlndiaandJapan wouldflllthepoliticalvacuumcausedbysuperpowers，evenmaldisarmamentin thisrcgion・Inanycase,facingthePost-ColdWarperiod,Asianstates，fearsofan

intensificationofJapaneseprcsenceinAsiaareincreasingl6)．

InordertoappeaseAsianconcems,ontheoccasionoftheEEC-ASEANregular conferenceheldFebruaryl990,theEECdecIaredonceagainitsintentiontomeet commitmcntsinAsiafOrprovidingODA、１，１９８８，theASEANgroupreceived 20％ofthetotal＄４４０millionfinancialaidfOrdevelopingcountriesgiveｎｂｙｔｈｃ ＥＥＣ，ThesharesfOrThilandandlndonesiａａｒｅｔｈｅｍｏｓｔｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔａｎｄｆＯｌｌｏｗｓ thatofthcPhilippines・Mainitemsofassistanceareagriculturaltechnology，

cnvironmentalprotection,HoodcontrolandjobtrainingSince1988,theEEChas joinedthedairydevelopmentprograminChinainaccordancewiththeWorldFood Program

LastMay,ｔｈｅＥＥＣＣｏｍｍｉｓｓｉｏｎｐｕｔｆＯｒｗａｒｄａｎａｍbitiousfive-yearaidprogram・

Htheplangetsthego-ahead,Asiancountrieswillreceivetwo-thirdsofanECU29

billion($２．３billion)aidpackage,withtherestearmarkedfOrLatinAmerica17〕・

AnEECcommissionerinsistedthatfUrthereconomlccooperationｉｎＡｓｉａｉｓｂｏｔｈ

"avitalneedandanopportunitynottｏｂｅｍｉｓｓｅｄ.，，ＡｎｄｈｅａｄｄｅｄｔｈａｔｗｈｉｌｅＥＥＣ

－８８－

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴｌＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮＬＩＢＥＲＡＵｌアヘＴＩＯＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ＰＡＣＩＦＦＩＣ ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

ａｉｄｔｏＥａｓｔＥｕｒｏｐｅｉｓｓｈｏｒｔｔｅｒｍａｎｄｔiedtopoUticalandeconomicconditions，

assistancetoAsiais“longtermandconstant'''8)．

Ⅳ，FromaTri-polarSystemtoaBipoIarorPerhapsaTwoandOne-halfPolar System

ＩｎｔｈｅｅｒａｏｆｔｈｅＣｏｌｄＷａｒｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnion

blocs，theintemationaIeconomyintheWestusedtobeexplainedbyatri-polar systemconsistingoftheUS.，EuropeandJapan・ButtheendoftheColdWar heraldsthecomingofnewerainwhichtheeconomydominatespoliticsandmilitarｙ affairs;thetraditionalworldofthetri-polarsystemwiUbedrasticallytransfOrmed・

ThemostimportantfactorproducingthistransfOnnationistheenlargementof Europeandconsequentlythｅｒｉｓｅｏｆ“Euro-Centralism，，、

Intheintemationaleconomictriangle,thestrongesttieslinktheU・ＳｗｉthWest Europe・Sharingbothethnicandhistoricalrelationshipsaswellasliberal democraticvalues，theyhaveconstructedwidepipelinesbetweenthemfOrtrade andcapitalinvestment・Forthesecurity,theyhaveengagedinacollectivedefense regimebyestablishingNATO､Thesedays,ｗｉｔｈａｖｉｅｗtowards“1992,,,American fimlshavelaunchedanintenseM＆AraceinEurope，especiallyintheU.Ｋ・ａｎｄ

Germany,whileEuropeancapital，aimingatglobalizingtheiractivities,aretrying

tomakeinroadsintotheAmericanmarketaswellasintotheintra-EECmarket・

Nevertheless,sincetheendoftheＷｏｒｌｄＷａｒｌＩ,becauseofthecontinualdecline oftheEuropeanoldcolonialempires，thecentreofgravityoftheintemational economyneverceasedtoshiftfromtheAtlantictothePacific,ａｎｄｓｏｔｈｅＵＳ・has continuedtomoveawayfromEuroｐｅＯｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｈａｎｄ，apartfromtheselfL

consciousseparatismoｆＧ“肋［France，MediterraneancountriessuchasItaly，

Spain,andGreecehavecontinuedtocriticizetheU・SmiIitarypresenceinEurope、

ＷｅｓｔGermany，whiledeclaringapro-Americanposture，hasgraduallysetaside

fromitsdiplomaticconceptsthedefenseofcommonAtlanticbenefit19)．This changehasbeenshownparticularlybytheextremelydeterminedpeacemovement

againstthedeploymentofCruiseandPersingmissilesinGermanyduringthe earIyl980sWinningbackitsconfidencebyreclaimingaclearpositionof dominanceoverEastEuropeandtheSovietUnion，WestEuropehasstrongly

tumedinuponitselfEuropeantendencytobecomemoreindependentvjF-d-vjsthe

US・ｓｉｎｃｅｔｈｅｅｎｄｏｆｔｈｅＷａｒｗｉＩｌｂｅａｃｃｅｌeratedonalongtermbasis2o)．

ＡｓｆＯｒｔｈｅＵＳ.，sincetheearIyl980s，businessenterpriseshadhankeredafter

easywealthandbecomeabsorbedinthemoneygameofWallStreettotheneglect

ofbasicmanufacturing､Asaresultofthis,ｓｏｍｅdc-industrializationoccurrcd・Ｂｕｔ ｔｈｅＵＳ・isobligedtopaythepriceofignoringthemanufacturingbase;ｔｈｅＵＳ・is

witnessingadeclineinaintemationalcompetitivenessinmanufacturing、Ｔｈｅ

"centripetalfOrce，，ｉｎthetraditionalsocialandeconomicorderisdiminishingand

serioussocialdifficultiesareprovokedbytheincreaseofnarcotic-relatedcrimesor thedeclineofqualityofeducation、Fromthegeographicalpointofview，the disintegrationoftheU・Shasbeentakingplacegraduallyduringthel980s・In contrastwiththedeclineoftheestablishedEastCoastareas,theSunBeltzoneand especiaIlytheWestCoastregionareshowingrisingstrengthOneAmericanauthor

-89-

insistsonanewconceptionofNorthAmericaasbeingdividedinto9real“nations，,

acrossthepresentintemationalbordersoftheUS.，CanadaandMexico21).Ａｓｔｈｅ

ＵＳ・ispulledindifferentdirectionsbetweenthetwogrowthpoles,theAsia-Pacific regionandGreaterEurope，ｔｈｅＵ.Ｓ・wouldbecomeincreasingIypolarizedThe

PacificregionintheU・SinparticularcouldtummoreandmoretowardsAsia・

Inshort，becauseoftheweakeningofAmerican-Europeanrelationshipsonone

hand,thedisintegrationoftheU.Ｓ・itselfontheotherhand，ｔｈｅＵＳ・wiIlnotbe

abIetoassumetheroleofonedistinctpoleofgrowthThepresenttri-polarsystem oftheinter､ationaIeconomywilltumtoaneconomicandpoliticaIbipolarsystem composedoftheAsia-Pacificregio、andGreaterEuropeasgrowthpoles22).Ifthis

scenanoappearstobetoomuchofanexaggcration，itmightbemorerealisticto supposewewillhaveatwoandone-halfpoIarsysteminvoIvingthcU.Ｓ・asone-half pole・Inthiscase,ｔｈｅＵ・Sisclcarlylosingitspreviouspredominantpositionandis assuredｏｎｌｙｏｆａｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｏｆｏｎｅｈａｌｆｇｒｏｗｔｈｐｏｌｅbetweenthePacificandthe

Atlantic

Atthispointitwouldbeusefultomakeacomparisonbetweentwopolesofthe Asia-PacificregionandGreatｅｒＥｕｒｏｐｅａｎｄｓｕｍｕｐｂｒｉｅｆｌｙｓｏｍｅｏｆｆeaturesof eacharea・ConcemingtheAsia-Pacificregion，thcmostimportantageminthis regionisthePacificOceanwhichiｓｔｗｏｔｉｍｅｓｌａｒｇｅｒｔｈａｎｔｈｅＡｔｌａｎｔｉｃａｎｄｉｓ

ｅｑｕｉｖａｌｅｎｔｔｏｏｎｅｔｈｉｒｄｏｆｔｈｃsurfaceoftheglovez3)．TheMediterraneanhad

cultivatedEuropeancivilizationbasedontheancientGreekCultureand Christianityapartfromprovidingarouteoftransmissionoflslam・TheAtlantic OceanhadconveyedtheLatinCultureandafterwardsAnglo-Saxontraditions fromtheOldContinenttotheNewButthePacificisnotonlysowide,butalsoso diversifiedintopograpｈｙｔｈａｔｉｔｃａｎｎｏｔｂｅｄｅｆｉｎｅｄａｓａｓｉｍｐleentity､Acrossthe Ocean，thcrearespreadinamosaicvariousreligionsandcultures；Buddhism，

Hinduism,Islam,Christianity,andConfucianism,thelastaccompanyingacultural sphereofcountriesusingChinesecharacters・

ＳｉｎｃｅｔｈｅｅｎｄｏｆｔｈｅＷｏｒｌｄＷａｒ，WcstEurope，ｔｈｅＥＥＣｎａｔｉｏｎｓａｔｌｅａｓｔ，

enjoyingrelativehomogeneityandstabilityinspiteofbeingundertheColdWar，

havesharedthesamevalueofliberaldemocracyandapproximateIysamedegreeof

economicdevelopment;Asia-Pacificregionhasbeenwidelyindispersionincluding

verydifferenttypesofpoliticalregimesandeconomicperfOrmancesThisvanety acceleratedeconomicdevelopmentaswillbediscussedlatter，butpoliticallyit bringsaboutinstabilitysuchascivilwars,CCZｲｐｓｄ'Ｅ、【,invasions,insurrectionsand soonAsaresult，theAsia-PacificregioncouldnotfOrmacIoselyconnected economicandpoliticalintegrationlikethatoｆｔｈｅＥＥＣｏｒｔｈｅＵＳ.-CanadaFree TradeAgreement・Inotherwords,thisregionisincompatiblcwithnarrowminded

bIocs・Thereassemble34coumriesandconcentrateonehalfofworIdwealthand population・

IntheAsia-Pacificregion,thercarethreemaininternalaxes(Figurel):1)the North-Southaxisofverticaldivisionoflabour，ｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＪａｐａｎａｎｄｔｈｅＮＩＥＳ，ｔｈｅ ＡＳＥＡＮ,AustraliaandNewZealand2)theEast-Westaxisofhorizontaldivision oflabourinthenorthernhemispherebetweenJapaｎａｎｄｔｈｅＮＩＥＳｏｎｏｎｅｓｉｄｅａｎｄ ｔｈｅＵＳ・andCanadaontheotherside､３)thesecondEast-Westaxisofhorizontal divisionoflabourinthesouthemhemispherebetweenAustraliaanｄＮｅｗＺｅａｌａｎｄ ｏｎｏｎｅｓｉｄｅａｎｄｔｈｅＵＳ、andCanadaontheothcrside，Besidestheseareas，ｔｈｅ

－９０－

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮＬＩＢＥＲＡＬＩＺＡＴＩＯＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ｐＡＣＩｐＦＩＣ ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

１９８７（sbiIIIon） I9B7ISbIIIIon）

JOpOn １２８７(９．９） NorIhAmorlcq

i;;＜更1,.2）

^{２６１ ～（８． 2６１}

５８Ｂ～

1ｌＩＺＢ）

５８Ｂ～

1ｌＩＺＢ） 4.5） 4.5） ^{TＢ TＢ}

ＮＩＥＳ AＳＥＡＮ

２１７(１４．５）

(２１９．４） ６４、^６４、

(２１９．４） ４） ） ^γ２１ (68.7） ^γ２１ (68.7） (６ _９７ (４３．５） ^９７ (４３．５）

１２０ (５９．５）

１２０ (５９．５）

ＯＣＥＡＭＡ

Source：ＯａｊＡ６"パイ"J，Sept．’”０，ｐ､４５．

Notes:１)（）:increaseratiobetweenlg70andl98７．

２)NorthAmerica:ｔｈｃＵＳ､ａｎｄCanada・

ＡＳＥＡＮ：Thailand，Malaysia，IndonesiaandthePhilippines，

ＮＩＥＳ：SouthKorea,Taiwan，HongKongandSingapore・

FigureLEvolutiomoflntra-Asia-PacificTrade

littoralregionofChiｎａｉsenteringgraduallyintothispoleｏｆｇｒｏｗｔｈ

Ｏｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｈａｎｄ,GreaterEuropeisabsorbing,ashasbeenmentionedearlier，

theEastEuropeancountriesand，inthefUture，theSovietUnionTheywillbe connectedaroundthecoreoftheEEA(EuropeanEconomicArea)ｗｈｉｃｈｗｉｌｌｂｅ ｆＯｒｍｅｄｂｙｔｈｅＥＥＣａｎｄＥＦTAcountries，GreaterEurope，ｗｉｔｈａ７００million population,willｈａｖｅ＄800billionintotalGDPwhichwillexceedthe＄５００ｂｉｌｌｉｏｎ ｏｆｔｈｅＵＳ.、ApartfiFomthefallofthesocialisminEastEuropeasahistorical

exception,WestEuropehasenjoyedsincetheendoftheWararelativepolitical

stabilitythankstoitssocialandeconomichomogeneity・TheweaknessesofWest Europewere，however，alsoclear：theeqpnomycouldnotdevelopcompetitive fOrcesnordidastrongdynamismSeedsofvitalpower,researchers,ｅ"Zｸﾞﾋﾞpre"ewT orcapitalfOrexampIe，ｄｉｄｎｏｔｃｅａｓｅｔｏｇｏａｃｒｏｓｓｔｈｅＡｔｌａｎｔｉｃａｎｄｔｏｄｒａｉｎｏｕｔ ｔｏｗａｒｄＮｏｒｔｈＡｍｅｒicaFuthermore，Euroｐｅｃｏｕｌｄｎｏｔｇｏｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｔｉｄｅｏｆ

``softnomics，，ｉｎｔｈｅｌ９８０ｓ，andthegapofintemationalcompetitivenessbetween EuropeandtheAsia-Pacificregionhaswidenedenormously

Theessentialreasonforthisrelativeeconomicweaknesscanbeattributedtothe

Europeandevelopmentpattempursuedthroughtheperiodofrapidgrowthofthe

late1970s・Tocopewiththerapidexpansionofdemandandscarcityoflabour,the

EuropeandeveIopedcountriesintroduced,inamassivefashion,perhapsmorethan

５millionimmigrantlabourersfromSouthEurope，Turkey，Yugoslaviaandthe Maghrebregion，ａｓｗｅｌＩａｓｆｒｏｍｂｌａｃｋＡｆｒｉｃａｎcountries、Theseworkerswere

willingtobeemployedfOrIowerwagesthandomesticworkersTheEuropean economyhascometodependonpricecompetitivenessbasedoncheaplabour，

neglectinglaboursavingeffOrtsinordertoupgradeindustrialstructures・Ｉｎ

ｃontrastwiththisinvoIvementofimmigrantlabourwithinWestEurope,Japan,in thisperiod,didnotabsorbimmigrantlabourers・Thisispartlybecauseitdidnotyet allowfOrcheapairtransportationwhichmightenableSouthEastAsianimmigrants

toUytoJapanoverthewidePacificOcean，butprincipallybecausethereexisted unresolvedpoliticalanddiplomaticproblemswithneighboringcountriessuchas SouthKorea，ＴａｉｗａｎａｎｄＣｈｉｎａｌｎｏｒｄｅｒｔｏｌｅａｐｏｖｅrthehurdleoflabour

shortagecrisisduringrapidgrowthperiod,Japanwas,therefOre,obligedtoinvest intensivelyinintroducingautomationequipmentsuchasrobotsandcomputersinto

-91_

theproductionsystem・

TheMediterraneanRimencouragedtｈｅ“internalization，，ofimmigrantlabourin Europe；thelargePacificbasinforcedJapanesefirmstoIaunchinto‘Micro- ElectronicRevolution，，andafterward,facinganapparentlycontinualappreciation oftheyenyjF-d-yなｔｈｅＵ.Ｓ・dollar,toshiftitslabourintensivesectorstotheNIES andafterwardstheASEANcountries・ThisprocesscouIdbecalledthe

"extemalization”ofimmigrantlabourinJapan・Asiandynamicdevelopmenthas beenstimulatedbythisJapanese``export”ofgradualIyupgradingmanufacturing facilitiestoitspartnercountries・Forunately，thToughthisperiodofthel980s，ｔｈｅ ＵＳ・couldlargeIyabsorb,bymeansofacceleratedprocessofde-industrialization，

manufacturedexportsfromnewlyindustrializingcountriesinEastAsia・Becauseof this，theAsiandevelopmentpattemiscaIledsometimes“Ｈｙinggeesedevelop-

ment，，、

InEurope,becauseｏｆ“intemalization”ofcheaplabour,anyclearaxisofvertical divisionoflabourhasnotbeenfbrmed・RatherthecoreregionofWestEuropeis coveredbyanintensivenetworkofhorizontaldivisionoflabour,inotherwords，

themutualopeningofeachnationalmarketfOrmanufacturedgoods、Certainly，

corenationsaretryingtodevelopsomeverticallinkageswithMediterraneanstates，

butthisisaratherrecentphenomenonsincebeingfacedwith“1992,,．Now expandingitsrangetoEastEuroｐｅａｎｄａｌｓｏｔｏ，inthefuture，ｓｏｍｅｐａｒｔｏｆｔｈｅ ＳｏｖｉｅｔＵｎｉｏｎ，Ｅｕropecanratherexpectapotentialdevelopmentinverticaland horizontaldivisionoflabourinthelongrunOneseriousproblemmaybecaused byapossiblewaveofimmigrationduetothedisintegrationoftheSovietEmpire・

BecausetheWestEuropeancountrieｓｗｉｌｌｂｅｆＯｒｃｅｄｍｏｒｅｔｈａｎｏｎｃｅｔｏ

"internalize，,severalmillionrefugeesorimmigrantscvenastheysufferfiFoman unemploymentcountofl5millionincludingtheadditional2millionEasteｒｎ Ｇｅｒｍａｎｗｏｒｋｅｒｓｗｈｏｗｅｒｅｌａｉｄｏｆｆｒeccntly

TumingbacktoUS.-EuropeanreIations，theinteractionbetweentheU.Ｓ・ａｎｄ EuropeisactivatedfOrthetimebeing,byeventsrelatedtoeconomicintegrationin l992・ItisinevitablethattheUS・shoulddisengagefromEuropemilitarilyand politicallyaswellaseconomically・ＩｎｔｈｅＵ.Ｓ､，“westemization,，，theshiftof economicactivitiestowardsthePacificstateslikeCalifOmaorWasbington，ｔｕｍｓ ｔｈｅＵＳ.，moreandmore，intoaPacificcountry・Ｉｎｆａｃｔ，ｔｈｅａｍｏｕｎｔｏｆｔｒａｎｓ‐

Atlantictradewasexceededbytrans-Pacifictradeinl985andsincethenitsgaphas becnwidening(Figure2).ConcemingAmericancorporations,theymustcopewith theglobalizationoftheeconomyandworldwideeconomicinterdependenceButif theyareobligedtochooseapartneroramarketbetweentheopenmindedPacific andanintrovertedEurope，ｔｈｅｉｒｃｈｉｏｃｅｍａｙｌｉｅｉｎｍａｎｙｃａｓｅｓｗｉththePacific lnthemilitaryfield，ｔｈｅＵＳ，mustwithdrawitstroopsfromEuropebecauseof increasingFederalbudgetproblemsand,aboveall,becauseoftheintensificationof East-Westdﾋﾟ、"!e・ＩｎｔｈｅＵＳ.，asidefromtheoutburstoftheGulfWar,ｐｅｏｐＩｅｄｏ ｎｏｔｃｅａｓｅｔｏｄｅｍａｎｄａ“peacedividend，，、Asaresult，thedefenseofEuropewill become,inthelongrange,irresistiblyEuropeanlftheU.Ｓ、losesitsfOotinginthe

NATO，ｔｈｅｙｗｉｌｌｎｏｔｂｅａｂｌｅｔｏｓｅｃｕｒｅｏｎｅｓｐecialrightofpresenceinEurope24)．

Asonereaction,ｔｈｅＵＳ・isplanningtostrengthentheNorthAmericanFreeTrade

ZonebetweentheU.Ｓ・andCanadaandalsoinnearfuturewithMexicoProblems

comefromthefacｔｔｈａｔｆｒｅｅｔｒａｄｅｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅＵ・SandCanadahavealready

－９２－

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮＬＵＢＦＲＡＬＩＺＡＴＴＯＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ＰＡＣＩＦＦＩＣ ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

＄bllIIon 30Ｃ

250

200

1５０

1００

5０

０１９７３１９７５１９７７１９７９１９８１１９８３１９８５１９８７

１９７４１９７６１９７８１９８０1９８２１９８４１９８６ Source：Ｏａｉｋ６町、、，SeptU990，ｐ、４６．

Note：Trans-Pacifictrade：ｔｏｔａｌａｍｏｕｍｔｏｆｔｒａｄｅｂｃｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅＵ．Ｓ，Canada，ａｎｄＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａａｓ ｏｎｅｐａｒｔａｎｄＪａｐan，Australia，NewZealand，ｔｈｅＡＳＥＡＮ，ａｎｄｔｈｅＮＩＥＳａｓｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｐａｒｔ・

Trans-Atlantictrade：ｔｏｔａｌａｍｏｕｎｔｏｆｔｒａｄｅｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅＵ．Ｓ,，Canade，ａｎｄＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａａｓ ｏｎｅｐａｒｔａｎｄＷｅｓｔＥｕｒｏｐｅａｎdAfricacxceptSouthAfricaastheotherpart・

Fignlre2・TheTrans-PacificTradeExceedstheTrans-AtIantictrade

existedforlongtimefOrmotorvehiclesandcarcomponentsandsofUrthertrade diversioneffectswouIdbelargelylimitedFurthermore，ｉｎＣａｎａｄａａｓｗｅｌｌａｓｉｎ Ｍｅｘｉｃｏ,almostallbigenterprisesareinfactpossessedorcontrolledbyAmerlcan

capitaLYettheestablishmentofa``ContinentalEconomy，，hasnotseemedtoyield

moreadynamiceconomy・

ThelastproblemweshouldmentionisthattherelationsbetweenEuropeand

AsiahavelonglackedculturalsympathyfOreachother・Eveneconomicrelations

havearelativelyshorthistory・ForJapanesetraderelationswithEuropereaIly beganinl974,ｗｈichoccurredunfOrtunatelyaIongsidethefirstoilcrisis・Therapid JapaneseeconomicadvancｅａｎｄｔｈｅｔａｋｅｏｆｆｏｆｅｘｐｏｒｔｓｔｏｗａｒｄｓEuropeinthe

NIESintensifiedsincel979，whichoccurredalongsidethesecondoilcrisiswhen Europeancountrieｓｂｅｇａｎｔｏｓｕｆｆｅｒｆｒｏｍｔｈｅ“Euro-pessimism，，、Theeconomic

relationsbetweenJapan，ａｓｗｅｌＩａｓｔｈｅＮＩＥＳ，andEuropeopenedinanuntimely faShion、FuthermoretradesitemsinbothsidehavecompetitivecharactersIacking

inabilitytocomplementeachother,sothattherelationshipisalwayscharacterized

bytensionTheU.S,canexporttoJapanfOods,raw、aterials,jumbojetliners，

militaryequipmentaswellasothermanufacturedgoods；Europecannoteasily assureamarketinJapanfOrthoseitemsbecauseofgeographicalandpolitical handicaps・Ｉｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆｆｏｏｄｓ，Europeantransportshipsarehandicappedbyits longvoyagecrossingtheline;inthecaseofhugemanufacturedgoods,Europeｄｏｅｓ

－９３－

notshareanymilitaryalliancesorspeciaIpoliticalrelationswithJapan，

TheemergenceofGreaterGermanyis，byconsolidatingthecoreofEuropean

economyonthewhole，apreferabledevelopmentforJapan、But，asmentioned above，AsiandevelopingcountriesfeeIacertainconcemabouttheintensification ofintroversioninEuropewhichwiIIhaveastrongimpactonthevulnerabletrade andcapitalinvestmentrelationsbetweenAsiaandEurope、Ｏｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｓｉｄｅ，

however,peopleareworriedUystrongJapaneseoverpresenceintheSouth-East

AsiancountriesjustasEastEuropeanpeopleareafraidoftheinfluenceofa GreaterGermany・ＯｎｅｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｉｓｆＯｒＪａｐａｎｔｏｔｒｙｔｏｍａkeinroadsintothe marketsofEastEuropeandtheSovietUnion,andreciprocallyGermanyandother WestEuropeancountriesshouldmoveintotheAsia-Pacificbasin、IfJapanand WestEuropeanstatesengagedincooperationandcoalitioninthethirdcountries,it willbeofgreatsignificanceinpreparingthenewinternationaleconomicorder，

irrespectiveｏｆｗｈｅｔｈｅｒａｂｉｐｏＩａｒｓｙｓｔｅｍｏｒａｔｗｏａndone-halfpolarsystem

emerges．

Notes

１）MinistryofFinance，Ｓｑ/}"omjcsFbﾉﾉｏｗ叩ノノ"kaiH6kok皿（SoftnomicsFollowup Committee，sReports)，1984-85.

2）Dertouzos,MichaelL・ｅｒａ/､，Ｍａｄｅj〃Ａｍｅｒｊｃａ,HarperPrennial,NewYork､1989、

ｐｐｌ９ａｎｄ149.

3）Osabe,Shigeyasu,Y6roppaDenshisangyOtoNihonkigy6noShinshutu（European electronicsindustryandimplantationofJapanesecorporationsinEurope),inlnstitut ofComparativeEconomicStudies,HoseiUniv､ｅ｡.,Ｍ/ＩＣ〃ＤＣ"３ｈ曲α"８ｙｄ〃ｏＫａｊｇａｉ ＳｊｌｚｓＭｍ(ImplantationabroadofJapaneseelectoronicscorporations),HoseiDaigaku Shuppamkyoku，Tbkyo、１９８７．

４）Osabe,Shigeyasu,９２nenKeizait6g6noHikaritoKage（Lightandsombreinthe economicintegrationinl992)，ｉｎル卿。（Jurist)，、０９６１，１－１５August１９９０．

５）Ｔ１ｈｅＥ”Opea〃Ｃ/jαﾉﾉe"geI992,WildwoodHouse,Hants，1989,ｐ９４．

６）Emerson,MichaeIe'αﾉ,７WeEco"omics〃ﾉ9,2,OxfordUnivPrcss.,Oxford,1988, ｐ２６４．

７）Bird,RogerCandStevenZelIer，Ｇﾉ０６αﾉＥﾉﾂi2c灯ｑ/Ｅ"mpel992,ｃｊｔｐａｒＳ６ｍｕｓ Ｏ，CI6ireacdin，Ｅｕｒｏｐｅｌ９９２ａｎｄｇａｐｓｉｎｔｈｅＥＣ'scommoncommercialpolicy，ｉｎ ノリ"、αﾉｑ/・Commo〃Ｍα'kaSlHdjes，Ｍａｒｃｈｌ990.

8）Smith,AIistairandVenablcs,AnthonｙＪ.,Thccostsofnon-Europc,inReFea比/、〃

’ｈｅ，CoFrq／Ⅳolz-EHmpe，，Brussels，1988,ｃｈ５，ｃｉＺｐａｒＳ．Ｏ,CleiTeacain，Ｏｐ・Ｃｉｔ．

，）Ｄｊｊｍ，pp206-207.

10）See,Rollo,ＪＭＤ.αﾛﾉ.，、ビノＶｅｗＥ“rer〃Europe:WCsterlzRespollses,Pinter，

London，1990.

11）See,TheRusiansarecoming,ｉｎ(heEco"o、血ハ200ct､1990;Lendval,Paul,Eastern Europe：Iiberalismvs・nationalism，ｉｎＴｈｅｗｏ〃dmdcJy，Ｊｕｌｙ1990.

12）Osabe,Shigeyasu,AratanaAidentitiwoMotomeruEC(TheECinsearchofitsnew identity),ｉｎＧａＭｃ６"'"、(DipromacyForum),Sept､1990;Lucron,Claude-Pierre，

ＶｅｒｓＩ,espaceeconomiqueeurop6en，Ｉ，Europedudeuxiemecercle，ｉｎＲｅｗ４ｅｄ皿 川α"ｈ６Ｃｂｍｍｏ"・ｎｏ､339.aodt-s6pt、1990;Schmieding,Holger,AconceptfOrapan-

－９４－

ＴＨＥＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＥＣＭＡＲＫＥＴＩＮＴＥＧＲＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＥＡＳＴＥＵＲＯＰＥＡＮＬｌＢＥＲＡＬＩＺＡＴＩＯＮＯＮＡＳＩＡ－ＰＡＣＩＦＦＩＣ

ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＥＳ

Europeaneconomicintegration，ｉｎＥ"ｍｐｅＱ〃Ａ仇jres，ｎ0.3.1989．

Wallace,William、/uenzmq/b｢"7口"o〃ｑ/ＷＥＦ'２ｍＥ皿、PC,Pinter,London1990,ｐ４．

ﾉWho〃ＫｅｉｚａｊＳｈｊｍｂ皿〃（JapanEconomicJoumal)，１３Ｊｕｎｅｌ９９０

Ｄｊｌｍ，１７ＮＯＭ1989．

Ｄｉ"o，ｌ３Ｊｕｎｅｌ９９０ ＥノＰｍＳ，gmayol990，

Islam，Shada，ECearmarksaidpackagefOrAsia，onthereccivingend，ｉｎＦｔＪｒＥ“[Ｂｒ〃

ＥＣＯ"ｏｍｊｃＲｅｐｉｅｗ，Ｚ４Ｍａｙｌ９９０・

Smith，Michel，Ｗ“rer〃Ｅ皿ropeq"ｄｆｈｅＵ"jZedSmles，GeorgeAllens，London，1984.

ｐ５９．

Osabe,Shigeyasu,JidainokiwddowakyOhen(CuITentkeywordis`rapidchange,),ｉｎ

Ｓ(J"Sam，Augustl990

Garreau,JoeIm/Ｔｅ/Vi"eMJrjO"ｓｑＷＶｏｒｆ/ｕＡｍｅ"cα,AvonBook,NewYork，1981.

1,France，so-calIed‘newAtlantists，insistonthebipolaTizationoftheworldSee，

Attali,Jacques,Ljg"Cs。，jWrjzo",Fayard,Paris,l99qAndalso,EtTillard,Gilleset Sureau，Fran9ois，Ａノ'ＥＳノｃｍＭｏ"｡e，Fayard，Paris，1983．

InstitutduPacifique,ＬｅＰａｃ(/li9Ⅲe:ﾉVOz〃eamCe"/花ｄ〃Ｍｏ"｡e,Berger-Levraut,Paris，

ｊｊｊ１ｊｊ ３４５６７８ １１１１１１

19）

20）

21） 22）

23）InstitutduPacifique,ＬｅＰａｃ(/li9Ⅲe:ﾉVOm 1986,ｃｈＬ

２４）See，Osabe，JidainokiwAdo,ｏｐ・CＩＬ

－９５－