DQG 6$'&amp

<XPL1DND\DPD /HFWXUHU$IULFDQ6WXGLHV&HQWHU±7RN\R8QLYHUVLW\RI)RUHLJQ6WXGLHV-DSDQ

Abstract

$UHFHQWDQGVLJQL¿FDQWLQFUHDVHRIPLJUDQWVIURPWKH*OREDO6RXWKWRWKH*OREDO1RUWKKDVFDXVHG VHULRXVLVVXHVVXFKDVVPXJJOLQJDQGEUDLQGUDLQDGGLWLRQDOO\LOOHJDOLPPLJUDQWVDUHLQFOXGHGLQWKH PRYHPHQWRISHRSOH$VWKHPLJUDWLRQSUREOHPKDVEHFRPHDJOREDOLVVXHPXOWLOD\HUHGPLJUDWLRQ JRYHUQDQFHLVUHVXOWLQJLQWKHUDSLGHPHUJHQFHRILQWHUUHJLRQDOLVPUHJLRQDOLVPDQGELODWHUDOLVP

,Q$IULFD UHJLRQDO H൵RUWV IRU IDFLOLWDWLQJ WKH IUHH PRYHPHQW RI SHUVRQV DQG LPSURYLQJ ERUGHU FRQWUROKDYHEHHQSURJUHVVLQJJUDGXDOO\LQVHYHUDOGHFDGHV)RULQVWDQFHWKH(FRQRPLF&RPPXQLW\

RQ :HVW $IULFDQ 6WDWHV (&2:$6 DJUHHG RQ LQWURGXFLQJ FRPPRQ SDVVSRUWV LQ 7KHVH GHYHORSPHQWV DUH WKH UHVXOWV RI QHROLEHUDOLVP RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG H[WHUQDO SUHVVXUH H[HUWHG ± HVSHFLDOO\ E\ (XURSH²RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG )XQGV IURP WKH (8 VXSSRUW WHFKQLFDO DVVLVWDQFH DQG FDSDFLW\EXLOGLQJRIWKH(&2:$6&RPPLVVLRQ&RQIURQWHGZLWKLOOHJDOPLJUDQWVIURP$IULFDWKH(8 GHYHORSHGDQLQWHUUHJLRQDODSSURDFKWRFRQWULEXWHWRWKHH[WHUQDOLVDWLRQRIPLJUDQWFRQWUROEH\RQGLWV UHJLRQDOIUDPHZRUN7KH*OREDO$SSURDFKWR0LJUDWLRQDQG0RELOLW\*$00VLQFHIRFXVHVRQ FRQWLQXRXVGLDORJXHDQGWKHFRQFOXVLRQRIUHDGPLVVLRQDJUHHPHQWVZLWKQRQ(8FRXQWULHV

$SSDUHQWO\ PLJUDWLRQ JRYHUQDQFH LQ $IULFD LV VWURQJO\ D൵HFWHG E\ (XURSHDQ SUHIHUHQFHV +RZHYHU WKLV HVVD\ DUJXHV WKDW $IULFDQ FRXQWULHV DUH QR ORQJHU PHUHO\ UXOH WDNHUV DQG WKDW WKH\

DWWHPSW WR VHHN OHYHUDJH IURP (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV ERWK LQ LQWHUUHJLRQDO DQG ELODWHUDO DSSURDFKHV )XUWKHUPRUHLWUDLVHVLVVXHVUHJDUGLQJJRYHUQDQFHRIPLJUDWLRQZLWKLQDQGIURP$IULFD

.H\:RUGV

PLJUDWLRQ5HJLRQDO&RQVXOWDWLYH3URFHVVHV5&3VLQWHUUHJLRQDOLVP

ᮏ✏ࡢⴭసᶒࡣⴭ⪅ࡀಖᣢࡋࠊࢡ࢚ࣜ࢖ࢸ࢕ࣈ࣭ࢥࣔࣥࢬ⾲♧ᅜ㝿ࣛ࢖ࢭࣥࢫ㸦&&%<㸧ୗ࡟ᥦ౪ࡋࡲࡍࠋ

7KHQXPEHURILQWHUQDWLRQDOPLJUDQWVUHDFKHGPLOOLRQLQWKLV¿JXUHLVWLPHVFRPSDUHG WRWKDWLQ81'(6$0RVWRIWKHVHPLJUDQWVZHUHERUQLQWKH*OREDO6RXWK,Q PLOOLRQRIWKHVRXWKVRXWKPLJUDWLRQUHSUHVHQWHGRIWKHWRWDOLQWHUQDWLRQDOPLJUDQWVWRFNZKHUHDV PLOOLRQRIWKHVRXWKQRUWKPLJUDWLRQZDVPRUHWKDQGRXEOHWKHPLOOLRQ¿JXUHLQ,20 ,QFRQWUDVWPLJUDQWVERUQLQWKH1RUWKUHSUHVHQWRIWKHWRWDOPLJUDQWV,QWHUHVWLQJO\

PLOOLRQPRYHWRWKH1RUWKDQGRQO\PLOOLRQPRYHWRWKH6RXWK

7KHVHWUHQGVUHYHDOWKDWWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURIPLJUDQWVKDVEHHQOHGPDLQO\E\PLJUDQWV ERUQ LQ WKH *OREDO 6RXWK FDXVLQJ VHULRXV JOREDO LVVXHV VXFK VPXJJOLQJ DQG EUDLQ GUDLQ ,OOHJDO LPPLJUDWLRQLVDQDGGLWLRQDOSUREOHP+RZHYHUDFFRUGLQJWRWKHGH¿QLWLRQRIUHJLPHDVH[SOLFLWRU LPSOLFLWµSULQFLSOHVQRUPVUXOHVDQGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHGXUHVDURXQGZKLFKDFWRUH[SHFWDWLRQV FRQYHUJHLQDJLYHQLVVXHDUHD¶²DV.UDVQHUKDVPHQWLRQHG².RVORZVNLLQVLVWHG WKDW PXOWLOD\HUHG PLJUDWLRQ JRYHUQDQFH KDV UHVXOWHG LQ WKH UDSLG HPHUJHQFH RI LQWHUUHJLRQDOLVP UHJLRQDOLVPDQGELODWHUDOLVPLQVWHDGRIWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOUHJLPH

7KLVDUWLFOHIRFXVHVRQPLJUDWLRQJRYHUQDQFHDVLWUHODWHVWRWKHYDULRXVSUREOHPVGHULYHGIURP PLJUDQWV ERUQ LQ$IULFD 7KH LQWHUQDWLRQDO ÀRZ RI$IULFDQ PLJUDQWV LV DQ LPSRUWDQW SROLWLFDO LVVXH IRU$IULFDQFRXQWULHVDVZHOODV(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVRQWKHRSSRVLWHVLGHRIWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ7KXV PLJUDWLRQ JRYHUQDQFH IRU $IULFDQ PLJUDQWV KDV GHYHORSHG ZLWKLQ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV RI $IULFD DQG (XURSHPRUHRYHUWKHLUUHODWLRQVKLSKDVDOVRFKDQJHG7KLVSDSHULVRUJDQLVHGLQWRIRXUSDUWV6HFWLRQ R൵HUVDQRYHUYLHZRI$IULFDQPLJUDQWV6HFWLRQH[DPLQHVWKHG\QDPLVPRIPLJUDWLRQJRYHUQDQFH IURP(XURSHDQDVSHFWV6HFWLRQUHYHDOVWKDW$IULFDDQG(XURSHKDVFKDQJHGIURPµSROLF\PDNHUVDQG WDNHUV¶WRZDUGVµSDUWQHUV¶6HFWLRQLQWXUQIRFXVHVRQ$IULFD¶VHODERUDWLRQIRUHVWDEOLVKLQJPLJUDWLRQ JRYHUQDQFH )LQDOO\ WKH DUWLFOH UDLVHV LVVXHV UHJDUGLQJ JRYHUQDQFH IRU PLJUDWLRQ ZLWKLQ DQG IURP

$IULFD

2YHUYLHZRI$IULFDQ0LJUDQWV

7KH SRSXODWLRQ RI $IULFDQ PLJUDQWV UHDFKHG DERXW PLOOLRQ LQ PRUH WKDQ GRXEOH WKH SRSXODWLRQLQ(KUKDUWet al.%HFDXVHRIWKHGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQLQPLJUDQWGHVWLQDWLRQVWKH VKDUHRI$IULFDQPLJUDQWVZKRVWD\LQ$IULFDKDVGHFUHDVHGJUDGXDOO\DERXWKDOIRIWKHPVWLOOOLYHLQ

$IULFDLQ(KUKDUWet al.,QFRQWUDVWLQWKHQXPEHURI$IULFDQPLJUDQWVVWD\LQJ RXWVLGHWKH$IULFDQFRQWLQHQWUHDFKHGPLOOLRQPRUHWKDQGRXEOLQJLQ\HDUV81'(6$

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

VNLOOHG$IULFDQODERXUHUVVRWKH\WHQGHGWRUHPDLQLQWKHLUFRXQWULHVRIRULJLQ+RZHYHUVLQFHWKH PLGV WKH HFRQRPLF UHVWUXFWXULQJ IDLOXUH SXVKHG VXFK ODERXUHUV WRZDUGV LQWHUQDWLRQDO PDUNHWV DQGEHWWHUZRUNLQJFRQGLWLRQVZLWKKLJKHUVDODULHV$VDUHVXOW$IULFDKDVVX൵HUHGIURPVHULRXVEUDLQ GUDLQSUREOHPV)RULQVWDQFHWKHGRFWRUEUDLQGUDLQFDXVHG6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFDQFRXQWULHVWKDWLQYHVW LQWUDLQLQJGRFWRUVWRORVHELOOLRQLQ.HOODQG,Q6LHUUD/HRQHDVWKH(ERODFULVLVKDV UHYHDOHG WKH FRXQWU\ KDG RQO\ GRFWRUV DQG QXUVHV LQ 7KHVH ¿JXUHV HTXDWH WR RQH GRFWRU IRU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HYHU\ SHRSOH 6XUSULVLQJO\ GRFWRUV DQG QXUVHV WUDLQHG LQ 6LHUUD/HRQHZHUHHPSOR\HGLQWKH8.DWWKHVDPHWLPH%RUJet al.

+RZHYHU EUDLQ GUDLQ KDV SDUWO\ EHHQ WUDQVIRUPHG WR EUDLQ FLUFXODWLRQ %HFDXVH RI HFRQRPLF GHFOLQH LQ WKH *OREDO 1RUWK KLJKO\ VNLOOHG ODERXUHUV KDYH UHFRJQLVHG WKDW DOWHUQDWLYH GHVWLQDWLRQV VKRXOGEHHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHVLQRXWVLGH$IULFDVXFKDV&KLQDDQG,QGLDRULQVLGH$IULFDVXFKDV 6RXWK$IULFDDQG%RWVZDQD$GHSRMX)XUWKHUPRUHJRYHUQPHQWDOH൵RUWVDUHH൵HFWLYH LQUHGXFLQJEUDLQGUDLQ7KHIRXQGLQJRIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI'MLERXWLLQUHVXOWHGLQDUHGXFWLRQRI VWXGHQWVJRLQJDEURDGWRVWXG\81(6&2

,Q FRQWUDVW WR VHYHUH SUREOHPV WULJJHUHG E\ EUDLQ GUDLQ PLJUDWLRQ LV DQ LPSRUWDQW VXUYLYDO PHFKDQLVPLQWHUPVRIUHPLWWDQFHV$GHSRMX$WWKHFRPPXQLW\OHYHOZLWKRXWEDVLFZHOIDUH VHUYLFHV PLJUDQWV¶ UHPLWWDQFHV VXSSOHPHQW WKH SUHVVLQJ EDVLF QHHG IRU D EHWWHU OLIH ZLWK KRXVLQJ HGXFDWLRQDQGKHDOWKFDUH$WWKHQDWLRQDOOHYHOUHPLWWDQFHVFRXOGEHDVRXUFHRIIRUHLJQH[FKDQJH )RUPDOUHPLWWDQFHLQÀRZVWRWKH6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFDUHJLRQDUHSURMHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHE\IURP DERXWELOOLRQLQWRELOOLRQLQOHGE\1LJHULDZLWKLWVSURMHFWHGUHPLWWDQFHVRI ELOOLRQ5HPLWWDQFHVFDQDOVREHDVRXUFHRI*'3JURZWK)RULQVWDQFHUHPLWWDQFHVDUHVLJQL¿FDQWLQ /LEHULDDVDVKDUHRIWKH*'3E\DVPXFKDV:RUOG%DQN

$FFRUGLQJWR$GHSRMXEHFDXVHWKHPLJUDQWGLDVSRUDUHWXUQFRQWLQXXPDQGLWVOLQNDJHV DUHVWURQJLQ$IULFDPDQ\$IULFDQPLJUDQWVGRQRWLQWHQGWRVWD\HOVHZKHUHLQGH¿QLWHO\WKHLUSODQV DUHWRUHWXUQKRPH7KXVWKH\NHHSWKHLUIDPLOLHVLQWKHLUFRXQWULHVRIRULJLQ$OWKRXJKWKHUHUHPDLQVD GLVSXWHDERXWZKRFRQVWLWXWHVWKHGLDVSRUDWKH$IULFDQGLDVSRUDKDVEHHQH[SHFWHGWRFRQWULEXWHWRWKH GHYHORSPHQWRIFRXQWULHVRIRULJLQ

'HVSLWH WKH $IULFDQ H[SHULHQFH RI UDSLG HFRQRPLF JURZWK XQHPSOR\PHQW UDWHV DUH FXUUHQWO\

KLJKDQGWKLVVLWXDWLRQLVVHULRXVDPRQJ\RXWK7KHUHIRUHPDQ\$IULFDQ\RXWKKDYHEHHQHQFRXUDJHG WRFURVVWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQRYHUWKHSDVWGHFDGHFDXVLQJWUDJLFGHDWKVDQGPLVVLQJSHUVRQVLQKXJH QXPEHUV )RUWXQDWHO\ RU XQIRUWXQDWHO\ $IULFD ± ZLWK LWV FRQWLQXRXV GHPRJUDSKLF ERRP ± LV WKH RQO\ FRQWLQHQW ZLWK D ZRUNLQJ SRSXODWLRQ WKDW LV H[SHFWHG WR JURZ RYHU WKH QH[W GHFDGH 6WLIWXQJ (QWZLFNOXQJ XQG )ULHGHQ'HYHORSPHQW DQG 3HDFH )RXQGDWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH D VROXWLRQ IRU XQHPSOR\PHQWLVPDQGDWRU\

:LWKRXW UHOLDEOH GDWD WUHQGV UHJDUGLQJ LUUHJXODU PLJUDWLRQ DUH VXSSRVHGO\ VLJQL¿FDQWO\

XQGHUHVWLPDWHG:KLOHLUUHJXODULPPLJUDWLRQIURP1RUWK$IULFDKDVSHUVLVWHGVLQFHWKHV/LE\D¶V IRUHLJQSROLF\UHIRUPVKDVFRQWULEXWHGWRDQLQÀX[RIWUDQV6DKDUDQPLJUDWLRQWR/LE\DDQG(XURSH /LE\DKDVEHHQLQWHQVLI\LQJLWVUHODWLRQVZLWK6XE6DKDUDQFRXQWULHVHVSHFLDOO\VLQFHWKH 81 HPEDUJR 'H +DDV ,Q WHUPV RI PLJUDWLRQ /LE\D VWDUWHG WR ZHOFRPH 6XE6DKDUDQ

$IULFDQV WR ZRUN LQ /LE\D XQGHU LWV UHQHZHG µSDQ$IULFDQ¶ SROLFLHV 7KHUH DUH PRUH 6XE6DKDUDQ

$IULFDQVOLYLQJLQWKH0DJKUHEWKDQLQ(XURSH7KRXJKDQHVWLPDWHGDQG6XE6DKDUDQ

$IULFDQVHQWHUWKH0DJKUHEDQQXDOO\RQO\WRRIWKHPHQWHU(XURSH'H+DDV,Q FRQWUDVWPRVW:HVW$IULFDQVHQWHULQJ(XURSHUHFHQWO\GRVROHJDOO\WKH\UHSUHVHQWRQO\DIUDFWLRQRI WKHWRWDO(8LPPLJUDWLRQRIPLOOLRQLQ7KHLPSOLFDWLRQLVWKDWPRVWPLJUDQWVHQWHU(XURSH OHJDOO\DQGRYHUVWD\WKHLUYLVDV,WZRXOGEHSUXGHQWIRU(XURSHWRGHYHORSDPHDVXUHRIFRQWURORYHU WKHLQÀX[RI$IULFDQPLJUDQWV

(XURSHDQ$VSHFWV7RZDUGV)RUWUHVV(XURSH

(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVKDYHDFFHSWHGPLJUDQWZRUNHUVIURPLQVLGHDQGRXWVLGHRI(XURSHWRVROYHWKH ODERXU VKRUWDJH VLQFH WKH HQG RI:RUOG:DU ,,$FFRUGLQJO\ ELODWHUDOLVP KDV EHHQ WKH PDLQVWUHDP RI PLJUDWLRQ JRYHUQDQFH WR QRUPDOLVH WKH ÀRZ RI PLJUDQWV$V %HWWV PHQWLRQHG WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDOSROLWLFVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQWHUQDWLRQDOPLJUDWLRQLVFKDUDFWHULVHGE\DIXQGDPHQWDOSRZHU

DV\PPHWU\EHWZHHQVHQGLQJVWDWHVDQGUHFHLYLQJVWDWHV*HQHUDOO\WKHIRUPHUZRXOGEHUXOHWDNHUVDQG WKHODWWHUZRXOGEHUXOHPDNHUV7KHUHIRUHELODWHUDOLVPXVXDOO\UHÀHFWVWKHSUHIHUHQFHVRIUHFHLYLQJ VWDWHV)RULQVWDQFH)UDQFHFRQFOXGHGDELODWHUDODJUHHPHQWEHWZHHQ7XQLVLDDQG0RURFFR

+RZHYHUWKHHFRQRPLFUHFHVVLRQFDXVHGE\WKHRLOFULVLVUHVXOWHGLQWKHUHMHFWLRQRIWKHQHZ HQWU\RIPLJUDQWZRUNHUV0LJUDQWVIURP$IULFDÀHZLQWR6RXWKHUQ(XURSHIURPZKLFKPLJUDQWVZHUH IRUPHUO\ VHQW 0RUHRYHU WKH ODERXU GHPDQG GHULYHG IURP WKH DFFHVVLRQ RI 6SDLQ WR WKH (XURSHDQ

&RPPXQLW\LQDQGWKHUHFRYHU\RIWKH(XURSHDQHFRQRP\LQWKHVHQFRXUDJHGDQLQÀX[RI OHJDODQGLOOHJDOPLJUDQWVHVSHFLDOO\IURP6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD

$VDUHVXOWDIWHUWKHVELODWHUDODJUHHPHQWVEHWZHHQ(XURSHDQVWDWHVDQG$IULFDQVWDWHVVKLIWHG IURPUHFUXLWLQJPLJUDQWZRUNHUVWRGHDOLQJZLWKLOOHJDOPLJUDQWV)RULQVWDQFHELODWHUDODJUHHPHQWV EHWZHHQ6SDLQDQG0RURFFRLQDQG)UDQFHDQG6HQHJDOLQLQFOXGHGUHDGPLVVLRQDQGYLVD IDFLOLWDWLRQ7KH(XUR0HGLWHUUDQHDQ3DUWQHUVKLS(03EHWZHHQWKH(8DQGQRQ(8VWDWHVLQFOXGLQJ QRUWKHUQ$IULFDQVWDWHVVWDUWHGLQSODFLQJDVRQHRILWVPDLQSULRULWLHVDUHGXFWLRQLQPLJUDWRU\

SUHVVXUHRQWKH(8,WUHTXLUHGQRQ(8VWDWHVWRDFFHSWUHDGPLVVLRQRILOOHJDOPLJUDQWVE\FRQGXFWLQJ ELODWHUDODJUHHPHQWVLQGLYLGXDOO\

$W WKH UHJLRQDO OHYHO ZKLOH DQ LQWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO DJUHHPHQW RI DLPHG WR HVWDEOLVK D IUHH PRYHPHQWRISHUVRQVZLWKLQWKHVRFDOOHGµ6FKHQJHQDUHD¶ZKHUHLQWHUQDOERUGHUFKHFNVKDYHEHHQ DEROLVKHG WKH 0DDVWULFKW7UHDW\ RI DQG WKH7UHDW\ RQ (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ UHTXLUHG FRRSHUDWLRQ LQDGGUHVVLQJWKHPLJUDWLRQSUREOHPIURPWKH¿HOGVRIMXVWLFHDQGKRPHD൵DLUVDVDVRFDOOHGWKLUG SLOODU XQGHU LQWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO PHWKRGV +RZHYHU KDYLQJ H[SHULHQFHG D ODUJH QXPEHU RI PLJUDQWV DQGDUHIXJHHLQÀX[LQWKHVWKH$PVWHUGDP7UHDW\RILQWHJUDWHGWKHSROLFLHVRQPLJUDWLRQ DV\OXP DQG WKH IUHH PRYHPHQW RI SHUVRQV LQ WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPXQLW\ VHFWLRQ RI WKH (87UHDW\

$GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH (XURSHDQ &RXQFLO KHOG LQ 7DPSHUH ZKLFK DGGUHVVHG WKH FUHDWLRQ RI DQ DUHD RI IUHHGRP VHFXULW\ DQG MXVWLFH ZDV D PLOHVWRQH IRU D FRPPRQ (8 DV\OXP DQG PLJUDWLRQ SROLF\

WKDW LQFOXGHG HOHPHQWV VXFK DV FRQVWUXFWLQJ D SDUWQHUVKLS ZLWK FRXQWULHV RI RULJLQ DQG GHYHORSLQJ H൶FLHQWPDQDJHPHQWRIPLJUDWLRQÀRZ,QWKHERUGHUPDQDJHPHQW¿HOGWKH(XURSHDQ$JHQF\IRU WKH 0DQDJHPHQW RI 2SHUDWLRQDO &RRSHUDWLRQ DW WKH ([WHUQDO %RUGHUV RI WKH 0HPEHU 6WDWHV RI WKH (XURSHDQ8QLRQ)5217(;ZDVHVWDEOLVKHGLQWZR\HDUVDIWHUWKHDGKRFFHQWUHVRQERUGHU FRQWUROKDGEHHQHVWDEOLVKHG,WV¿UVWPDMRURSHUDWLRQDWVHDZDV-RLQW2SHUDWLRQ+HUDGHDOLQJZLWK LUUHJXODULPPLJUDWLRQIURP:HVW$IULFDWR6SDLQ¶V&DQDU\,VODQGVLQWKH$WODQWLF2FHDQ

5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ$IULFDQDQG(XURSH)URP3ROLF\7DNHUVWR3DUWQHUV

5HJDUGLQJWKH(03PHQWLRQHGLQVHFWLRQ*HGGHVLQVLVWHGWKDWZKHWKHUDFRXQWU\ZRXOGEHDEOH WR MRLQ WKH (8 RU QRW FUHDWHG GL൵HUHQW LQFHQWLYH VWUXFWXUHV DPRQJ QRQ(8 VWDWHV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV FDQGLGDWHFRXQWULHVRIWKH(8DFFHVVLRQZRXOGJLYHWKH(8PRUHOHYHUDJHDQGFRXQWULHVZLWKRXWWKH SURVSHFWRIMRLQLQJWKH(8ZRXOGVWULYHIRUWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRJDLQOHYHUDJHDQGQHJRWLDWHZLWKWKH(8

*HGGHV

'HDGORFN LQ WHUPV RI HQIRUFHPHQW RI WKH XQLODWHUDO (8 PLJUDWLRQ SROLF\ OHG WKH (8 WR VHHN GLDORJXHV DQG QHJRWLDWLRQV ZLWK$IULFDQ FRXQWULHV 6LQFH WKH *OREDO$SSURDFK WR 0LJUDWLRQ DQG0RELOLW\*$00KDVEHHQDK\EULGIUDPHZRUNRIWKH(8H[WHUQDOPLJUDWLRQDQGDV\OXPSROLF\

FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ ERWK WKH ELODWHUDO DQG LQWHUUHJLRQDO DSSURDFKHV %LODWHUDOO\ *$00¶V DLP LV WR HVWDEOLVK PRELOLW\ SDUWQHUVKLSV 03V RU &RPPRQ$JHQGDV RQ 0LJUDWLRQ DQG 0RELOLW\ &$00V 03V LQFOXGH QHJRWLDWLRQV LQYROYLQJ YLVD IDFLOLWDWLRQ DQG UHDGPLVVLRQ DJUHHPHQWV PDLQO\ YLVjYLV QHLJKERXULQJFRXQWULHV6RIDU03VKDYHEHHQVLJQHGZLWK&DSH9HUGHLQ0RURFFRLQDQG

7XQLVLDLQ&$00VZLWKRXWQHJRWLDWLRQVLQYROYLQJYLVDIDFLOLWDWLRQDQGUHDGPLVVLRQDJUHHPHQWV KDYHEHHQXVHGIRURWKHUWKLUGZRUOGFRXQWULHVOLNH1LJHULDLQ

)RUGHYHORSLQJWKHLQWHUUHJLRQDODSSURDFKHVWDEOLVKLQJDIRUPDOGLDORJXHEHWZHHQ$IULFDDQGWKH (8EHJDQLQ7KH¿UVW$IULFD(86XPPLWLQ&DLURUHVXOWHGLQDQDJUHHPHQWRQWKHVXSSRUWRIWKH (8IRU$IULFDQFRXQWULHVLQHQVXULQJIUHHLQWUD$IULFDQPRELOLW\RIODERXUDQGPLJUDWLRQFROODERUDWLRQ LQDGGUHVVLQJWKHURRWFDXVHVRIPLJUDWLRQDQGWKHUHFLSURFDOLQWHJUDWLRQRIPLJUDQWVPLJUDQWULJKWV UHDGPLVVLRQDJUHHPHQWVEHWZHHQ(XURSHDQDQG$IULFDQFRXQWULHVDQGH൵RUWVWRFRPEDWUDFLVPDQG [HQRSKRELD+RZHYHULWWRRNVHYHQ\HDUVIRUWKHVHFRQG$IULFD(86XPPLWWRWDNHSODFHLQZKLFK WKH\ DGRSWHG WKH $IULFD(8 6WUDWHJLF 3DUWQHUVKLS EDVHG RQ IRUPDO GLDORJXHV DQG WKH $IULFD(8 3DUWQHUVKLSRQ0LJUDWLRQ0RELOLW\DQG(PSOR\PHQW00($OWKRXJKWKHIRXUWK$IULFD(86XPPLW DGRSWHGWKH(8$IULFD'HFODUDWLRQRQ0LJUDWLRQDQG0RELOLW\ZKLFKVXJJHVWVDKLJKOHYHORILQWHUHVW LQLQWHUFRQWLQHQWDOPLJUDWLRQWKH00(ZRXOGEHLQVX൶FLHQWZLWKRXWFRQFUHWHRXWFRPHVFRQWULEXWLQJ WRWKHSURJUHVVRIPLJUDWLRQJRYHUQDQFHIRU$IULFDQPLJUDWLRQSUREOHPV

5HJLRQDOFRQVXOWDWLYHSURFHVVHV5&3VDUHLQWHUUHJLRQDOGLDORJXHVZLWKWKHIROORZLQJIHDWXUHV LQIRUPDO DQG QRQELQGLQJ GHDOLQJ ZLWK PLJUDWLRQ LVVXHV RQO\ FRQWLQXRXV DQG QRW R൶FLDOO\

DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK IRUPDO UHJLRQDO LQVWLWXWLRQV 5&3V ZLWK WKHLU PXOWLODWHUDO JRYHUQPHQWDO QHWZRUNV VSUHDGIURPWKHPLQLVWHULDOOHYHOWRORZHUOHYHOVRIQDWLRQDOUHJXODWRUVDQGDUHVXSSRVHGWRFRQWULEXWH WR FRRSHUDWLRQ DPRQJ VWDWHV E\ HQFRXUDJLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ H[FKDQJHV .|KOHU 0RUHRYHU D µSURMHFWLVHG¶DSSURDFKHQDEOHV5&3VZLWKVPDOOVHFUHWDULDWVDQGVPDOOEXGJHWVWREHH൵HFWLYHVLQFH 5&3V FDQ DXWKRULVH WKH KLULQJ RI VWD൵ IRU VSHFL¿F SURMHFWV %HWWV 5&3V DUH IDFLOLWDWHG ZLWK WKH VXSSRUW DQG VHFUHWDULDW IXQFWLRQV RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV VXFK DV WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU0LJUDWLRQ,20

7KH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ7UDQVLW0LJUDWLRQ070EHWZHHQPLJUDWLRQR൶FLDOVLQFRXQWULHVRIRULJLQ WUDQVLWDQGGHVWLQDWLRQKDVEHHQHQFRXUDJLQJGLDORJXHDPRQJ$IULFD(XURSHDQGWKH0LGGOH(DVW VLQFH7KH'LDORJXHRQ0LJUDWLRQLQWKH:HVWHUQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQR൶FLDOO\ODXQFKHGLQ5RPH LQSURYLGHGDQLQIRUPDOIRUXPVLQFHWRSURPRWHLQIRUPDWLRQH[FKDQJHVMRLQWPDQDJHPHQW RILQWHUQDWLRQDOERUGHUVDJUHHGIRUPVRIODERXUPLJUDWLRQPLJUDWLRQIRUGHYHORSPHQWDQGSURWHFWLRQ RIWKHULJKWVRIPLJUDQWVDPRQJPHPEHUVWDWHV

$OWKRXJK WKH 5&3 PRGHO GRHV QRW HQVXUH WKH H൶FLHQW GLDORJXH DPRQJ VWDWHV )UH\EXUJet al.

WKH(XUR$IULFDQ'LDORJXHRQ0LJUDWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW5DEDW3URFHVVLQGLFDWHVWKDW LQVWLWXWLRQDOSURFHGXUHVUHÀHFWLQJSUHIHUHQFHVRIVHQGLQJVWDWHVDUHQHFHVVDU\6LQFHWKH5DEDW 3URFHVV KDV EHHQ EULQJLQJ WRJHWKHU (XURSHDQ DQG$IULFDQ FRXQWULHV IURP 1RUWK:HVW DQG &HQWUDO

$IULFD DV ZHOO DV WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ (& DQG WKH (&2:$6 &RPPLVVLRQ WKLV SURDFWLYH 5&3KDVIRXUSLOODUVRIVWUDWHJLFSULRULW\RUJDQLVLQJPRELOLW\DQGOHJDOPLJUDWLRQLPSURYLQJERUGHU PDQDJHPHQWDQGFRPEDWLQJLUUHJXODUPLJUDWLRQVWUHQJWKHQLQJWKHV\QHUJLHVEHWZHHQPLJUDWLRQDQG GHYHORSPHQWDQGSURPRWLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOSURWHFWLRQ

7KHUDSLGLQFUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURILUUHJXODUPLJUDQWVFURVVLQJWKH6WUDLWVRI*LEUDOWDURUUHDFKLQJ WKH&DQDU\,VODQGVSRVHVDSUREOHPWKDWLVQRWH[FOXVLYHO\WKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI0RURFFRDQG6SDLQ,Q WKLVFRQWH[W)UDQFH0RURFFR6HQHJDODQG6SDLQWRRNWKHLQLWLDWLYHWRHVWDEOLVKWKH5DEDW3URFHVV :KLOH 6SDLQ DQG )UDQFH KDYH YLHZHG WKH ¿JKW DJDLQVW LUUHJXODU PLJUDWLRQ DV D SULRULW\ 0RURFFR DQG6HQHJDOKDYHFRQVLGHUHGWKHGHYHORSPHQWSUREOHPDSULRULW\WRUHGXFHPLJUDWLRQÀRZ6HQHJDO UHJDUGHGDVDJDWHNHHSHURIZHVWHUQ$IULFDKDVVXVSHQGHGQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKWKH(8UHJDUGLQJDQ03

&KRXDQG*LOEHUW$WWKHVDPHWLPHLWLVFRQGXFWLQJELODWHUDODJUHHPHQWVZLWK)UDQFH6SDLQ DQG,WDO\IRUWKHGHSRUWDWLRQRILUUHJXODUPLJUDQWVLQVWHDGVLPSOLI\LQJSURFHGXUHVOHJDOPLJUDWLRQRI

H[SHUWVDQGVWXGHQWVIURP6HQHJDO%DURORPHRet al0RURFFRUHJDUGHGPLJUDWLRQSUREOHPDVD µJHRJUDSKLFDOUHQW¶1DWWHUVHDUFKHGDSSURDFKWRQHJRWLDWHIRUWKHLUSUHIHUHQFH

&RQVHTXHQWO\WKH5DEDW3URFHVVWDNHVDEDODQFHGDSSURDFKWRZDUGVVHQGLQJVWDWHVDQGUHFHLYLQJ VWDWHV7KHVWHHULQJFRPPLWWHHLVWKHVWUDWHJLFJRYHUQLQJERG\LWLVFRPSRVHGRI¿YH$IULFDQFRXQWULHV DQG¿YH(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV%HOJLXP%XUNLQD)DVR(TXDWRULDO*XLQHD)UDQFH,WDO\0DOL0RURFFR 3RUWXJDO6HQHJDODQG6SDLQDVZHOODV(&DQG(&2:$67KHPLQLVWHULDOFRQIHUHQFHWKHIRUXPIRU WKHKLJKHVWOHYHORIGLDORJXHZLWKLQWKH5DEDW3URFHVVKDVEHHQWDNLQJSODFHLQ$IULFDDQG(XURSH DOWHUQDWHO\ i.e. 5DEDW 3DULV 'DNDU DQG 5RPH7KHPDWLF PHHWLQJV GHGLFDWHG WR VSHFL¿F WRSLFV RI PLJUDWLRQKDYHEHHQFRKRVWHGE\ERWK$IULFDQDQG(XURSHDQVWDWHVWKXVXQLODWHUDOGLVFXVVLRQVOHG E\HLWKHU$IULFDRU(XURSHDUHDYRLGHG$QH[DPSOHZDVWKHWKHPDWLFPHHWLQJRQUHWXUQUHDGPLVVLRQ DQGUHLQWHJUDWLRQXQGHUWKHFRSUHVLGHQF\RI%HOJLXPDQG&{WHG¶,YRLUHLQ1HYHUWKHOHVVUHWXUQ DQGUHDGPLVVLRQDUHLVVXHVLQZKLFKUHFHLYLQJVWDWHVSUHIHUWRXVHWKHLUSRZHUZLWKPHHWLQJVDOORZLQJ

$IULFDQVWDWHVWRFODLPWKHGHYHORSLQJGDWDEDVHIRULGHQWL¿FDWLRQUHYDOLGDWLRQRISHQDOSURYLVLRQVIRU LUUHJXODUPLJUDQWVDQGDVVLVWDQFHLQUHXQLWLQJPLJUDQWVZHUHLQHYLWDEOHIRUDQDQWLLUUHJXODUPLJUDQW SROLF\5DEDW3URFHVV

2WKHUVLJQL¿FDQWDVSHFWVRIWKH5DEDW3URFHVVDUHVXSSRUWSURMHFWVFURVVLQJSLOODUV6XFKSURMHFWV VXSSRUWFDSDFLW\EXLOGLQJSURJUDPPHVLQWHUPVRIWKHREMHFWLYHIRUVXSSRUWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQVKDULQJ DQG LPSURYHG FRRUGLQDWLRQ EHWZHHQ SDUWQHU FRXQWULHV )RU LQVWDQFH VXSSRUW SURMHFWV GHYHORS WRROV VKDULQJDVDJRRGSUDFWLFHe.g.*XLGHVRQWKH8VHRI0LJUDWLRQ'DWDLQ%XUNLQD)DVR*KDQDDQG 0DOL0RUHRYHUWKH5DEDW3URFHVVODXQFKHGDÀDJVKLSLQLWLDWLYHDLPHGDWSURPRWLQJHQWUHSUHQHXUVKLS LQ$IULFDLQ

7KH VLJQL¿FDQFH RI WKH 5DEDW 3URFHVV WR RWKHU 5&3V LV WKH 5DEDW 3URFHVV WKDW IDFLOLWDWHV FRRSHUDWLRQ DPRQJ VHQGLQJ VWDWHV DQG WUDQVLW VWDWHV LQ $IULFD $V PLJUDQWV¶ URXWHV EHFDPH PRUH GLYHUVL¿HG HYROYLQJ LQWR D FRPSOH[ SKHQRPHQRQ WUDQVLW FRXQWULHV VXFK DV 0RURFFR DQG 6HQHJDO VSHQWPRQH\IRUWKHGHSRUWDWLRQRIPLJUDQWVIURP6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFDQVWDWHVDQGVWUHQJWKHQHGERUGHU FRQWURO UHFRJQLVLQJ WKH QHHG WR OLQN FRXQWULHV RI RULJLQ WUDQVLW DQG GHVWLQDWLRQV D൵HFWHG E\ WKH PLJUDWLRQURXWHVOLQNLQJ&HQWUDO:HVWDQG1RUWK$IULFDZLWK(XURSH

7KXV WKH 5DEDW 3URFHVV UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH SUDFWLFDO 5&3 PRGHO IRU FRXQWULHV RI RULJLQ WUDQVLW DQGGHVWLQDWLRQVSURYLGHGWKH(8ZLWKDQDOWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKEH\RQGWKHGLDORJXHEHWZHHQ$IULFDQ FRXQWULHV7KH(8+RUQRIWKH$IULFD0LJUDWLRQ5RXWH,QLWLDWLYH.KDUWRXP3URFHVVZDVHVWDEOLVKHG LQDVDFRQWLQXRXVGLDORJXHWRDGGUHVVKXPDQWUD൶FNLQJDQGWKHVPXJJOLQJRIPLJUDQWVWKURXJK UHJLRQDOFROODERUDWLRQEHWZHHQFRXQWULHVRIRULJLQWUDQVLWDQGGHVWLQDWLRQVRQWKHURXWHEHWZHHQWKH +RUQRI$IULFDDQGWKH(8

,QDGGLWLRQIURPWKH5DEDW3URFHVVDQGWKH.KDUWRXP3URFHVVDIRUPDOGLDORJXHEHWZHHQ$IULFD DQG(XURSHNQRZQDVWKH9DOOHWWD6XPPLWRQ0LJUDWLRQEURXJKWWRJHWKHU(XURSHDQDQG$IULFDQKHDGV RIVWDWHDQGJRYHUQPHQWVLQ,QUHVSRQVHWRWKHVXPPLWWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQKDVODXQFKHG DQµ(PHUJHQF\7UXVW)XQGIRUVWDELOLW\DQGDGGUHVVLQJURRWFDXVHVRILUUHJXODUPLJUDWLRQDQGGLVSODFHG SHUVRQVLQ$IULFD¶ZLWK¼ELOOLRQIURPWKH(8EXGJHWDQGWKH(XURSHDQ'HYHORSPHQW)XQG

$IULFDQ$SSURDFK3URJUHVVDQG6WDJQDWLRQ

9DULRXV DSSURDFKHV IRU IDFLOLWDWLQJ UHJLRQDO HFRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ LQ $IULFD KDYH EHHQ VWURQJO\

LQÀXHQFHGE\%DODVVD¶VWKHRU\WKDWUHJLRQDOHFRQRPLFLQWHJUDWLRQGHYHORSVLQ¿YHVWDJHVIUHHWUDGH FXVWRPV XQLRQ FRPPRQ PDUNHW HFRQRPLF XQLRQ DQG SROLWLFDO XQLRQ %DODVVD 7KHUHIRUH

$IULFDQ5HJLRQDO(FRQRPLF&RPPXQLWLHV5(&VVXFKDV(&2:$6WKH(DVW$IULFDQ&RPPXQLW\

($&DQGWKH6RXWKHUQ$IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW&RPPXQLW\6$'&DWWHPSWWRHVWDEOLVKUHJLRQDOIUHH PRYHPHQWRIODERXUEHWZHHQPHPEHUVWDWHV

$W WKH FRQWLQHQW OHYHO WKH $EXMD 7UHDW\ ZKLFK SODQQHG WR HVWDEOLVK WKH $IULFDQ (FRQRPLF

&RPPXQLW\ E\ UHTXLUHV$IULFDQ 8QLRQ $8 PHPEHU VWDWHV WR DGRSW QHFHVVDU\ PHDVXUHV LQ RUGHUWRDFKLHYHWKHIUHHPRYHPHQWRISHUVRQVDQGHQVXUHWKHHQMR\PHQWRIWKHULJKWRIUHVLGHQFHDQG HVWDEOLVKPHQWE\WKHLUQDWLRQDOVZLWKLQWKH&RPPXQLW\

,QWKH$8SURYLGHGJXLGHOLQHVIRUPHPEHUVWDWHVDQG5(&VLQ$IULFDWRIRUPXODWHQDWLRQDO DQGUHJLRQDOPLJUDWLRQSROLFLHVWKURXJKWKH0LJUDWLRQ3ROLF\)UDPHZRUNIRU$IULFD03)$ZKLFK LQFOXGHV UHVSHFW DQG SURWHFWLRQ IRU WKH ULJKWV RI ODERXU PLJUDQWV ,Q WKH VDPH \HDU WKH $IULFDQ

&RPPRQ 3RVLWLRQ RQ 0LJUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW $&30' UHFRPPHQGHG WKDW PLJUDWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW LVVXHV VKRXOG EH DGGUHVVHG DW QDWLRQDO FRQWLQHQWDO DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO OHYHOV ,W LV HPSKDVLVHGWKDW03)$DQG$&30'DUHQRWLQWHQGHGWREHOHJDOO\ELQGLQJQRUGRWKH\LPSRVHDQ\

REOLJDWLRQVRQPHPEHUVWDWHV

7KRXJKYDULRXVSROLF\LQVWUXPHQWVH[LVWWKDWD൵HFWDQGIDFLOLWDWHPLJUDWLRQDGRSWHGE\WKH$8WKH

$83ODQRI$FWLRQRQ(PSOR\PHQW3URPRWLRQDQG3RYHUW\$OOHYLDWLRQDQGWKH'HFODUDWLRQRQ 0LJUDWLRQRIKDYHQRWDWWDLQHGVX൶FLHQWUHVXOWVVRIDU

8QGHU WKH SURYLVLRQ WKH &RPPRQ 0DUNHW IRU (DVWHUQ DQG 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD &20(6$ WKH ($& DQG 6$'& DJUHHG LQ WR KDUPRQLVH WKHLU SURJUDPPHV IRU WUDGLQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV WKH IUHH PRYHPHQW RI SHRSOH MRLQW LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI LQWHUUHJLRQDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO DUUDQJHPHQWVIRUFRRSHUDWLRQ7KHUHIRUHWKHIUHHWUDGHDUHDZDVODXQFKHGLQ$VDQH[WVWHS FURVVERUGHUPLJUDWLRQDQGODERXUSROLFLHVVKRXOGEHFRQFOXGHGE\KRZHYHUWKHIDFLOLWDWLRQRI IUHTXHQWODERXUPLJUDWLRQZLWKLQWKLVDUHDLVXQGHUGHYHORSHGSUHVHQWO\

,Q FRQWUDVW (&2:$6 ZLWK WKH 3URWRFRO RQ )UHH 0RYHPHQW RI 3HUVRQV 5HVLGHQFH DQG (VWDEOLVKPHQW DV D OHJLVODWLYH EDVLV LV D SLRQHHULQJ 5(& IRU GHYHORSLQJ UHJLRQDO IUHH PRYHPHQW

$OWKRXJKWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIIUHHPRYHPHQWLQWKH(&2:$6ZDVSODQQHGIRULPSOHPHQWDWLRQLQ WKUHHSKDVHVZLWKLQ\HDUVSURJUHVVRQWKHVHFRQGDQGWKLUGSKDVHVZDVVWDJQDQWEHFDXVHRIWKH GHFOLQHLQHFRQRPLFSHUIRUPDQFHLQWKHVDQGUHJLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\FDXVHGE\ZDUVLQ/LEHULDDQG 6LHUUD /HRQH WKURXJKRXW WKH V 6LQFH WKH V WKH (&2:$6 7UDYHO &HUWL¿FDWH (&2:$6 FRPPRQSDVVSRUWDQGYDULRXVQDWLRQDOLGHQWLW\FDUGVKDYHHQDEOHG(&2:$6FLWL]HQVWRWUDYHOIUHHO\

ZLWKLQWKHUHJLRQ,QWKH(&2:$65HJLRQDO/DERXUDQG(PSOR\PHQW3ROLF\DQG3ODQRI$FWLRQ ZDV DGRSWHG 6LQFH LWV LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ UHPDLQV OLPLWHG WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2UJDQL]DWLRQ KDV VXSSRUWHGWKHH൵HFWLYHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQWKURXJKDSURMHFWIXQGHGE\WKH(8XQGHUWKH^th(XURSHDQ 'HYHORSPHQW)XQGVLQFH

1DPHO\WKHHODERUDWLRQRI5(&VLQ$IULFDDUHWKHUHVXOWVRIQHROLEHUDOLVPRQWKHRQHKDQGDQG H[WHUQDO SUHVVXUH ± H[HUWHG HVSHFLDOO\ E\ (XURSH ± RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG$FWLYLWLHV RI WKH 0LJUDWLRQ 'LDORJXHIRU:HVW$IULFD0,':$VLQFHDQ5&3GHVLJQHGWRHQFRXUDJH(&2:$60HPEHU 6WDWHV WR GLVFXVV FRPPRQ PLJUDWLRQ LVVXHV DQG FRQFHUQV LQ D UHJLRQDO FRQWH[W KDYH EHHQ VWURQJO\

VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2UJDQL]DWLRQ IRU 0LJUDWLRQ ,207KXV VXSSRUW LQFOXGHV WHFKQLFDO DVVLVWDQFHIRUWKH0,':$6HFUHWDULDW

&RQFOXVLRQ

,W DSSHDUV WKDW JRYHUQDQFH IRU $IULFDQ PLJUDWLRQ LV XQGHUJRLQJ D G\QDPLF WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ DQG LV VWURQJO\ D൵HFWHG E\ (XURSHDQ SUHIHUHQFHV ZKR QHHG D FRPSUHKHQVLYH PLJUDWLRQ JRYHUQDQFH IUDPHZRUNWRGHDOZLWKLUUHJXODUPLJUDQWV¶SUREOHPV

+RZHYHU WKH DXWKRU RI WKLV HVVD\ DUJXHV WKDW ZLWKLQ WKH 5&3 PRGHO UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH 5DEDW 3URFHVV$IULFDQFRXQWULHVDUHQRORQJHUPHUHO\UXOHWDNHUVDQGWKH\VHHNOHYHUDJHIURP(XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV,QDGGLWLRQH൵RUWVWRGHYHORS$IULFDQPLJUDWLRQJRYHUQDQFHDUHUHPDUNDEOHDPRQJ$IULFDQ 5&3VZKLFKUHTXLUHERWKWHFKQLFDODQG¿QDQFLDOVXSSRUWIURPRXWVLGH$IULFD7KHLPSOLFDWLRQLVWKDW

$IULFDQRZQHUVKLSIDFHVDQHQRUPRXVGLOHPPDRILQWHUYHQWLRQE\(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV

,WLVDQWLFLSDWHGWKDWPRUHWKDQKDOIRIWKHH[SHFWHGJURZWKLQWKHJOREDOSRSXODWLRQE\ZLOO RFFXULQ$IULFDZLWKWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIJOREDOJRYHUQDQFHIRUXQHPSOR\PHQWDQGPLJUDWLRQLQ$IULFD GHVHUYLQJDWWHQWLRQ

Reference

$GHSRMX$µ,QWURGXFWLRQ5HWKLQNLQJWKH'\QDPLFVRI0LJUDWLRQZLWKLQIURPDQGWR$IULFD¶

In International Migration within, to and from Africa in a Globalised World (G$$GHSRMX

$FFUD6XE6DKDUDQ3XEOLVKHUVSS±

$IULFDQ 8QLRQ µ$EXMD 7UHDW\ (VWDEOLVKLQJ WKH$IULFDQ (FRQRPLF &RPPXQLW\ $(&¶ 757

$(&

%DODVVD%µ7RZDUGVD7KHRU\RI(FRQRPLF,QWHJUDWLRQ¶Kyklos±

%DURORPHR$'7)DNKRXU\DQG'3HUULQµ&$5,00LJUDWLRQ3UR¿OH6HQHJDO¶&RQVRUWLXP IRU$SSOLHG5HVHDUFKRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0LJUDWLRQKWWSKGOKDQGOHQHWDFFHVVHGRQ 0DUFK!

%HWWV $ µ7KH *OREDO *RYHUQDQFH RI 0LJUDWLRQ DQG WKH 5ROH RI 7UDQVUHJLRQDOLVP¶ ,Q Multilayered Migration Governance: The Promise of Partnership.(GV5.XQ]6/DYHQH[DQG 03DQL]]RQ/RQGRQ5RXWOHGJHSS±

%RUJ % DQG & 5HJDQ µ)URP WKH 3RRU WR WKH 5LFK¶ ,Q80-20: Development in an Unequal World, ^thHGLWLRQ(GV%%RUJ05&RVWHOOR7'DO\&5HJDQDQG&5HJDQ2[IRUG1HZ ,QWHUQDWLRQDOLVWSS±

&KRX0+DQG0*LEHUWµ7KH(86HQHJDOPRELOLW\SDUWQHUVKLSIURPODXQFKWRVXVSHQVLRQ DQGQHJRWLDWLRQIDLOXUH¶Journal of Contemporary European Research±

'H+DDV+Irregular Migration from West Africa to the Maghreb and the European Union: An Overview of Recent Trends*HQHYD,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU0LJUDWLRQ

(KUKDUW+0/*R൵(5RFKHUDQG5-6LQJKµ'RHV0LJUDWLRQ)RVWHU([SRUWV"(YLGHQFH IURP$IULFD¶World Bank Policy Research Working Paper±

)UH\EXUJ76/DYHQH[)6FKLPPHOIHQQLJ76NULSNDDQG$:HW]HODemocracy Promotion by Functional Cooperation: The European Union and Its Neighborhood. /RQGRQ 3DOJUDYH 0DFPLOODQ

*HGGHV$µ0LJUDWLRQDQGµ)RUWUHVV(XURSH¶¶,QThe EU and Africa: From Eurafrique to Afro-

Europa(GV$$GHEDMRDQG.:KLWHPDQ/RQGRQ+XUVWSS±

,20The Global Migration Trends Factsheet 2015KWWSJPGDFLRPLQWJOREDOPLJUDWLRQ WUHQGVIDFWVKHHWDFFHVVHGRQ2FWREHU!

.HOODQG.µ'RFWRU%UDLQ'UDLQ&RVWV$IULFDELOOLRQ¶KWWSVZZZUHXWHUVFRPDUWLFOHXV DIULFDQGRFWRUVPLJUDWLRQGRFWRUEUDLQGUDLQFRVWVDIULFDELOOLRQLG8675($22 DFFHVVHGRQ2FWREHU!

.|KOHU-µ:KDW*RYHUQPHQW1HWZRUNV'RLQWKH)LHOGRI0LJUDWLRQ$Q$QDO\VLVRI6HOHFWHG 5HJLRQDO &RQVXOWDWLYH 3URFHVVHV¶ ,Q Multilayered Migration Governance: the Promise of

Partnership(GV5.XQ]6/DYHQH[DQG03DQL]]RQ/RQGRQ5RXWOHGJHSS±

.RVORZVNL 5 µ*OREDO 0RELOLW\ 5HJLPHV $ &RQFHSWXDO )UDPHZRUN¶ ,QGlobal Mobility Regimes(GV5.RVORZVNL/RQGRQ3DOJUDYH0DFPLOODQSS±

.UDVQHU6'µ6WUXFWXDOFDXVHVDQGUHJLPHFRQVHTXHQFHVUHJLPHVDVLQWHUYHQLQJYDULDEOHV¶,Q International Regimes(G6'.UDVQHU,WKDFD&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVVSS±

1DWWHU . µ7KH )RUPDWLRQ RI 0RURFFR¶V 3ROLF\ WRZDUGV ,UUHJXODU 0LJUDWLRQ 3ROLWLFDO5DWLRQDOHDQG3ROLF\3URFHVVHV¶International Migration±

5DEDW 3URFHVV µ5pXQLRQ 7KpPDWLTXH VXU /H UHWRXU OD 5pDGPLVVLRQ HW OD 5HLQWHJUDWLRQ¶

%UX[HOOHV%HOJLTXH0D\±-XQH.

6WLIWXQJ (QWZLFNOXQJ XQG )ULHGHQ'HYHORSPHQW DQG 3HDFH )RXQGDWLRQ Regional Migration

*RYHUQDQFHLQWKH$IULFDQ&RQWLQHQW&XUUHQW6WDWHRI$ৼDLUVDQGWKH:D\)RUZDUGKWWSZZZ VHIERQQRUJ¿OHDGPLQ'LHB6()3XEOLNDWLRQHQ6%VEBVWXGLHBHQSGI!

81(6&2 UNESCO Science Report: towards 2030 KWWSVHQXQHVFRRUJXQHVFRBVFLHQFHB UHSRUW!

8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$൵DLUV81'(6$µ7UHQGVLQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0LJUDQW6WRFN7KH5HYLVLRQ¶ United Nations database323'%0,*6WRFN5HY :RUOG %DQN µ5HPLWWDQFHV WR 5HFRYHU¶ 0RGHVWO\$IWHU7ZR<HDUV RI 'HFOLQH¶ 3UHVV 5HOHDVH

-2%6 KWWSZZZZRUOGEDQNRUJHQQHZVSUHVVUHOHDVHUHPLWWDQFHVWR UHFRYHUPRGHVWO\DIWHUWZR\HDUVRIGHFOLQHDFFHVVHGRQ2FWREHU!