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ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ ДОМ СанктПетербург 2012 ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÀß ÊÎÍÔÅÐÅÍÖÈß, ÏÎÑÂßÙÅÍÍÀß 110-ËÅÒÈÞ ÑÎ ÄÍß ÐÎÆÄÅÍÈß ÑÅÐÃÅß ÈÂÀÍÎÂÈ×À ÒÞËÜÏÀÍÎÂÀ 13 ÎÊÒßÁÐß 2011 ã. ÑÀÍÊÒ-ÏÅÒÅÐÁÓÐÃ, ÐÎÑÑÈßÝêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ òåîðèÿ è õîçÿéñòâåííàÿ ïðàêòèêà: ãëîáàëüíûå âûçîâû. Ìàòåðèàëû ìåæäóíàðîäíîé êîíôåðåíöèè, ïîñâÿùåííîé 110-ëåòèþ ñî äíÿ ðîæäåíèÿ Ñåðãåÿ Èâàíîâè÷à Òþëüïàíîâà. — Èçäàòåëüñòâî «Åâðî-ïåéñêèé Äîì» — Ñàíêò Ïåòåðáóðã — 500… ñòð. Ïå÷àòàåòñÿ ïî ïîñòàíîâëåíèþ Ðåäàêöèîííî-èçäàòåëüñêîãî ñîâåòà Ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ôàêóëüòåòà Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãñêîãî Ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî óíèâåðñèòåòà Ðåäêîëëåãèÿ: ä.ý.í., ïðîô. Í.Ï. Êóçíåöîâà ä.è.í., ïðîô. Í.À. Ëîìàãèí ä.ý.í., ïðîô. Ñ.Ô. Ñóòûðèí Ðåöåíçåíòû: ä.ý.í, ïðîô. À.È.Åâäîêèìîâ (ÑÏáÃÓÝÈÔ) ä.ý.í., ïðîô. Î.Í.Ìèñüêî (ÑÏáÃÓ)  ïðåäëàãàåìûé âíèìàíèþ ÷èòàòåëåé ñáîðíèê âêëþ÷åíû äîêëàäû è âûñòóïëåíèÿ, ñäåëàííûå íà ïðîøåäøåé â Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãå 13 îêòÿá-ðÿ 2011 ã. ìåæäóíàðîäíîé íàó÷íîé êîíôåðåíöèè, ïîñâÿùåííîé 110-ëåòèþ ñî äíÿ ðîæäåíèÿ Ñåðãåÿ Èâàíîâè÷à Òþëüïàíîâà. Ìàòåðèàëû êîíôåðåíöèè ïóáëèêóþòñÿ âïåðâûå. © Êîëëåêòèâ àâòîðîâ, 2012 © Èçäàòåëüñòâî «Åâðîïåéñêèé Äîì», 2012 ISBN 978-5-8015-0287-8
Содержание
Ïðåäèñëîâèå 7 Ñåêöèÿ 1. Ïîñòêðèçèñíûå èìïåðàòèâû ðàçâèòèÿ ãëîáàëüíîé ôèíàíñîâîé ñèñòåìûKlaus Janssen. On recent developments
in the European Insurance Industry 9 Ì.È. Êðèâîãóç. Ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò ãîñóäàðñòâà
â óñëîâèÿõ ãëîáàëèçàöèè 15
Marija Kucinskiene, Aida Macerinskiene, Grazina Jatuliaviciene, Grazina Mikaliuniene. Tourism Business Development Strategic Decisions in Lithuania 36
Í.Ï.Êóçíåöîâà. Ôîðìèðîâàíèå ñèñòåìû ðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ ôèíàíñîâûõ êîíãëîìåðàòîâ 48 Þ.Ï.Ìèòèí. Íîìèíàëüíûé ýôôåêòèâíûé êóðñ äîëëàðà êàê ãëîáàëüíûé èíäèêàòîð ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé àêòèâíîñòè 62 Í.Ì.Ôîìè÷åâà. Ðîëü ñòðàõîâûõ ïóëîâ â îáåñïå÷åíèè ýôôåêòèâíîñòè ñòðàõîâîé çàùèòû 69 À.À. Õàðèîíîâñêèé. Ïåðñïåêòèâû ðåçåðâíûõ âàëþò: ñîâðåìåííûå ïðîáëåìû ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ôèíàíñîâ 77 Ì.Ñ. Øàõîâà. Îñîáåííîñòè äèíàìèêè ðàçâèòèÿ ìèðîâîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà 87 Ê.À. Øàõïàçîâ. Ôèíàíñîâûå êîíãëîìåðàòû â Ðîññèè: ïðè÷èíû, ïîñëåäñòâèÿ, ïåðñïåêòèâû 94 Ñåêöèÿ 2. Ñèñòåìà ãëîáàëüíîãî ðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ ïåðåä ëèöîì íîâûõ âûçîâîâ Ò.Â. Áåëåíêîâà. Êîíêóðåíòîñïîñîáíîñòü ýêîíîìèê ìàëûõ ñòðàí â óñëîâèÿõ ãëîáàëèçàöèè è êðèçèñà (íà ïðèìåðå Èñëàíäèè) 103 Âèòàóòàñ Âàçíîíèñ, Þëþñ Ðàìàíàóñêàñ, Ãåäèìèíàñ Ðàäçÿâè÷þñ. Âîïðîñû îðãàíèçàöèè ðûíêà ôðóêòîâ è îâîùåé â óñëîâèÿõ ãëîáàëèçàöèè òîðãîâëè 113
Þ.Ê. Çàéöåâ. Ìíîãîñòîðîííèå ìåõàíèçìû ñîäåéñòâèÿ ìåæäóíàðîäíîìó ðàçâèòèþ: ïðîáëåìû
ðåçóëüòàòèâíîñòè è ðåôîðìèðîâàíèÿ 122 Margarita Dunska. State fiscal policy un crisis
and post-crisis period 134
À.Ã. Êîâàëü. Òîðãîâàÿ ïîëèòèêà Ðîññèè è Áðàçèëèè â ãëîáàëèçèðóþùåìñÿ ìèðå:
âîçìîæíîñòè è îãðàíè÷åíèÿ 145
Nikolay A. Kozhanov. The Influence of the External Factors on the Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions.
The Case Study of Sanctions Adopted against Iran 159 Mikhail I. Krivogouz. Global Energy Security and Cooperation Issues
in the Energy Sector in post-Soviet Region 166 À.Ñ. Êóð÷åâñêàÿ. Ýíåðãåòè÷åñêàÿ áåçîïàñíîñòü Àðêòèêè
êàê îñíîâà ðàçâèòèÿ ðåãèîíà 188
Â.Ñ. Îõàòðèíà. Ïîòåíöèàë ïðèìåíåíèÿ GTL-òåõíîëîãèé â Ðîññèè äëÿ ñîêðàùåíèÿ ïðîÿâëåíèé
«ðåñóðñíîãî ïðîêëÿòèÿ» 198
Sonia Ferencikova. Human Resource Management in Central and Eastern Europe: From Transition to Crisis 209
Ñåêöèÿ 3.Ðåãèîíàëüíûå è íàöèîíàëüíûå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ñèñòåìû â óñëîâèÿõ ãëîáàëèçàöèè Áèðóòå Ãàëèíèåíå, Àëüãèðäàñ Ìèøêèíèñ, Àðòóðàñ Âèòàñ. Èçìåíåíèÿ ñòðóêòóðû ýêñïîðòà â Ëèòâå: ìàêðîýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ îöåíêà 221 Â.É. Æèëèíñêàñ, Æ.À. Æèëèíñêàñ, Å.Â. Äåìåíòüåâà. Îïòèìàëüíûé âûáîð è óïðàâëåíèå èííîâàöèîííûìè ïðîåêòàìè 234 Ñ.Ð. Åêàáñîíå. Ðèñêè è âîçìîæíîñòè óñòîé÷èâîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ýêîíîìèêè Ëàòâèè 243 Â.Â. Êèëèí. Òàìîæåííûé ñîþç ÅâðÀçÝÑ êàê ýòàï ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé èíòåãðàöèè: ïðîáëåìû è ïåðñïåêòèâû 254 Å.Å. Ìàêàðîâ. Ïîñëåäñòâèÿ ãëîáàëèçàöèè â ñîöèàëüíî-ýêîíîìè÷åñêîì ðàçâèòèè ñòðàí Áàëòèè 266 Í.Â. Ðûñàê. Ìîäåðíèçàöèÿ ýêîíîìèêè Ðîññèè â êîíòåêñòå ãëîáàëüíûõ âûçîâîâ 272 Ðèìàíòàñ Ñòàøèñ. Èíôîðìàöèîííûå òåõíîëîãèè â çäðàâîîõðàíåíèè 281 Í.À. Ôèëèìîíîâà. Ãëîáàëèçàöèÿ ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè êàê ôàêòîð ôîðìèðîâàíèÿ êîðïîðàòèâíîé ñîöèàëüíîé ïîëèòèêè 292 Ê.È. Þðêîâ. Âíåøíåýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ äåÿòåëüíîñòü ïðåäïðèÿòèé ñ èíîñòðàííûì êàïèòàëîì â Òþìåíñêîé îáëàñòè â ïîñòêðèçèñíûé ïåðèîä 299 Ñåêöèÿ 4. Ýêîíîìèêà, îñíîâàííàÿ íà çíàíèÿõ: ìèðîõîçÿéñòâåííûé êîíòåêñò Anda Batraga. Àêòóàëüíûå àñïåêòû ìàðêåòèíãîâûõ êîììóíèêàöèé 304
Madeleine Block, Tatiana Khvatova. Multinational Perspective of Knowledge Sharing in Large Organisation 318 Ilze Buligina. Addressing Risks in Public Administration
of Technological Research and Development 331 Í.Ç. Âîë÷åê. Ðîëü ñîöèîêóëüòóðíûõ öåííîñòåé
â ðàçâèòèè òðàíñôîðìàöèîííûõ ïðîöåññîâ
(ìåòîäîëîãè÷åñêèé è òåîðåòè÷åñêèé àñïåêòû) 343 Í.Â. Ãîëèê. Ìîäåðíèçàöèÿ áåç ïðîñâåùåíèÿ è ïðîáëåìà
ñîöèàëüíîé îòâåòñòâåííîñòè 353 InBra KantBne, Biruta Sloka, Ilona OzoliÈa. Business
Communication Influence on Company Management: Analysis of Entrepreneurs Views 363
Gindra KasnauskienX. Population Emigration and It’s Economic Impact: Case of Lithuania 373
Laura Kersule, Biruta Sloka. Analysis of Employees
Performance and Motivation Work Condition Factors in Telecommunication Branch in Latvia 379 Ì.Ñ. Ìóõà÷åâà. Èííîâàöèè â ñèñòåìå ýêîíîìèêè,
îñíîâàííîé íà çíàíèÿõ:
ìèðîõîçÿéñòâåííûé êîíòåêñò 388
Kerstin Pezoldt, Anne Michaelis. Universities’ Reputation as an Instrument for Student Recruitment 395 Êåðñòèí Ïåöîëüäò. Òðàíñôåð çíàíèÿ â ÂÓÇàõ: èíñòðóìåíòû
ïîâûøåíèÿ êîíêóðåíòîñïîñîáíîñòè ïðîôåññîðñêî-ïðåïîäàâàòåëüñêîãî ñîñòàâà 404
Предисловие
13 îêòÿáðÿ 2011 ãîäà íà Ýêîíîìè÷åñêîì ôàêóëüòåòå Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî óíèâåðñèòåòà ïðîøëà ìåæäó-íàðîäíàÿ êîíôåðåíöèÿ «Ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ òåîðèÿ è õîçÿéñòâåí-íàÿ ïðàêòèêà: ãëîáàëüíûå âûçîâû», ïîñâÿùåíõîçÿéñòâåí-íàÿ 110-ëåòèþ ñî äíÿ ðîæäåíèÿ âûäàþùåãîñÿ ó÷åíîãî, ïðåïîäàâàòåëÿ, âîèíà è äèïëîìàòà, îñíîâàòåëÿ êàôåäðû ýêîíîìèêè ñîâðåìåííîãî êà-ïèòàëèçìà ËÃÓ Ñåðãåÿ Èâàíîâè÷à Òþëüïàíîâà1. Êîíôåðåíöèÿ âûçâàëà áîëüøîé èíòåðåñ íàó÷íîé îáùåñòâåí-íîñòè.  åå ðàáîòå ïðèíÿëè ó÷àñòèå áîëåå 150 ó÷åíûõ èç ðàçëè÷-íûõ ðåãèîíîâ Ðîññèè, à òàêæå Ãåðìàíèè, Ôðàíöèè, Ñëîâàêèè, ÑØÀ, ñòðàí Áàëòèè. Ïåðâóþ ñåññèþ ïëåíàðíîãî çàñåäàíèÿ «Ñåð-ãåé Èâàíîâè÷ Òþëüïàíîâ: ýêîíîìèñò, ïîëèòèê, ÷åëîâåê» îòêðû-ëà ïðîðåêòîð ÑÏáÃÓ ïî îáåñïå÷åíèþ ðåàëèçàöèè îáðàçîâà-òåëüíûõ ïðîãðàìì è îñóùåñòâëåíèþ íàó÷íîé äåÿòåëüíîñòè ïî íàïðàâëåíèÿì ìåæäóíàðîäíûå îòíîøåíèÿ, ïîëèòîëîãèÿ, ñîöèî-ëîãèÿ è ýêîíîìèêà Åëåíà Ãðèãîðüåâíà ×åðíîâà. Çàòåì ñî ñâîè-ìè âîñïîñâîè-ìèíàíèÿñâîè-ìè î Ñåðãåå Èâàíîâè÷å âûñòóïèëè åãî ó÷åíè-êè è ñîðàòíèó÷åíè-êè — ïðîôåññîðà Âèêòîð Ëåîíèäîâè÷ Øåéíèñ, Âèêòîð Ñåìåíîâè÷ Òîðêàíîâñêèé è Þðèé Âàñèëüåâè÷ Áàñèñòîâ.  äîêëàäå äîöåíòà ÑÏáÃÓ Íàòàëèè Ïåòðîâíû Äðîçäîâîé áûë ïîäðîáíî ïðîàíàëèçèðîâàí âêëàä Ñ.È.Òþëüïàíîâà â èçó÷åíèå çàêîíîìåðíîñòåé ôóíêöèîíèðîâàíèÿ ýêîíîìèêè ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí. Âî âòîðîé ÷àñòè ïëåíàðíîãî çàñåäàíèÿ åå ó÷àñòíèêè ïåðåøëè ê ðàññìîòðåíèþ ïðîáëåì, ñòîÿùèõ ïåðåä ýêîíîìè÷åñ-êîé íàóýêîíîìè÷åñ-êîé â ñîâðåìåííûõ óñëîâèÿõ. Áûëè çàñëóøàíû äîêëàäû ñîâåòíèêà Âñåìèðíîé òîðãîâîé îðãàíèçàöèè Ìàðêà Îáîéíà î ïîñëåäíèõ òåíäåíöèÿõ è ïåðñïåêòèâàõ ðàçâèòèÿ ìåæäóíàðîä-íîé òîðãîâëè; ïðîôåññîðà ÑÏáÃÓ Âèêòîðà Òèìîôååâè÷à Ðÿçà-1 Êîíôåðåíöèÿ áûëà îðãàíèçîâàíà è ïðîâåäåíà ïðè ôèíàíñîâîé ïîä-äåðæêå Ñåðãåÿ Ñåðãååâè÷à Òþëüïàíîâà. Ñåêöèÿ 5. Ðàçâèòèå ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî áèçíåñà â óñëîâèÿõ ãëîáàëèçàöèè È.Â. Âîðîáüåâà. Ýñòîíñêèé îïûò ôîðìèðîâàíèÿ ýêîíîìèêè, îñíîâàííîé íà çíàíèÿõ 413 Â.Á. Åëàãèíà. Êîíöåïöèÿ âîäîïîòðåáëåíèÿ â óñëîâèÿõ ãëîáàëèçèðóþùåéñÿ ýêîíîìèêè 424 Å.À. Åðàñîâà. Âíåäðåíèå ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ñòàíäàðòîâ GMP íà ôàðìàöåâòè÷åñêèõ ïðåäïðèÿòèÿõ Ðîññèè 434 Ä.Â. Ìåëüíèêîâ. Ñïåöèôèêà òåððèòîðèàëüíî-îòðàñëåâîé äèñëîêàöèè îñîáûõ ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ çîí â Ñåâåðî-Çàïàäíîì ôåäåðàëüíîì îêðóãå Ðîññèè 449 Ì.Â. Íàçàðîâà, Å.Â. Íèêîëüñêàÿ. Ìîäåðíèçàöèÿ ïðîèçâîäñòâà ýëåêòðîýíåðãèè â Íèäåðëàíäàõ â ïðîöåññå ýâîëþöèè ýíåðãåòè÷åñêîãî ñåêòîðà ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêè 456 Svetlana Saksonova, Natalya Verina. Tax Planning for a Firmas an Opportunity to Grow Firm’s Value 468 È.Á. Ñåðãååâ, Í.Â. Ñèãèòîâà. Ýêîíîìèêî-ïðàâîâîé
ìåõàíèçì òðàíñôåðà èííîâàöèé
â ìèíåðàëüíî-ñûðüåâîé êîìïëåêñ Ðîññèè 478 Arturs Graudins, Biruta Sloka,Inesa VoronNuka, Ilze Brante.
Professional Education Challenges for Mechanical Engineering and Metalworking Industries in Latvia 487 Ñ.Ð. Òèìêàåâà. Ðàçâèòèå ãîðîäîâ â ýïîõó ýíåðãîýôôåêòèâíîñòè
è ýêîëîãè÷åñêîé áåçîïàñíîñòè 497
Ò.Â. Áåëåíêîâà. Âçãëÿä íà Èñëàíäèþ ñêâîçü ïðèçìó ìèðîâîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà 504
íîâà î íàäíàöèîíàëüíûõ è íàöèîíàëüíûõ ðåãóëÿòîðàõ â ïîñò-êðèçèñíîé ýêîíîìèêå; ïðîôåññîðà ÑÏáÃÓ Âÿ÷åñëàâà Ìèõàé-ëîâè÷à Øàâøóêîâà î ïîñò-êðèçèñíûõ èìïåðàòèâàõ ðàçâèòèÿ ãëîáàëüíîé ôèíàíñîâîé ñèñòåìû; ïðîôåññîðà Âèëüíþññêîãî Óíèâåðñèòåòà Ïîâèëàñà Ãèëèñà îá àíòè-ýêîíîìèêå êàê terra incognita â ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé íàóêå. Äàëåå ðàáîòà êîíôåðåíöèè ïðîõîäèëà â ïÿòè ïàðàëëåëüíûõ ñåêöèÿõ. Ïîñêîëüêó òåêñòû äîêëàäîâ, ïðîçâó÷àâøèõ íà ïëåíàðíîì çàñåäàíèè, ïóáëèêóþòñÿ â æóðíàëå «Âåñòíèê Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðã-ñêîãî óíèâåðñèòåòà. Ñåðèÿ Ýêîíîìèêà», òî â íàñòîÿùèé ñáîð-íèê âîøëè ñãðóïïèðîâàííûå ñîîòâåòñòâóþùèì îáðàçîì òåêñòû äîêëàäîâ è âûñòóïëåíèé, ñäåëàííûå íà ñåêöèîííûõ çàñåäàíèÿõ. Òåì íå ìåíåå, îíè â äîñòàòî÷íî ïîëíîé ìåðå îòðàæàþò îáùèé êðóã è ñîäåðæàíèå îáñóæäàâøèõñÿ âîïðîñîâ. Ìàòåðèàëû ïóáëè-êóþòñÿ â àâòîðñêîé ðåäàêöèè. Ìû íàäååìñÿ, ÷òî ìàòåðèàëû êîíôåðåíöèè áóäóò ïîëåçíû âñåì, êòî ïðîôåññèîíàëüíî çàíèìàåòñÿ è ñåðüåçíî èíòåðåñóåòñÿ ïðîáëåìàìè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé òåîðèè è õîçÿéñòâåííîé ïðàêòèêè. Áóäåì ïðèçíàòåëüíû çà îòçûâû, êîììåíòàðèè, êðèòè÷åñêèå çà-ìå÷àíèÿ. Ïðîñèì íàïðàâëÿòü èõ íà êàôåäðó ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìè-êè Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî óíèâåðñèòåòà ïî àäðåñó: 191123, Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðã, óë. ×àéêîâñêîãî, ä.62. èëè ïî ýëåêòðîííîé ïî÷òå: [email protected] Ðåäàêöèîííàÿ êîëëåãèÿ
СЕКЦИЯ 1.
Посткризисные императивы развития
глобальной финансовой системы
Klaus Janssen, Institute for Insurance Studies, UAS, Cologne, GermanyOn recent developments in the European
Insurance Industry
ABSTRACT
From the important developments that could be observed during the last years three were selected. The objective of this contribution is to outline them so that it becomes clear how they will influence future processes in the European insurance industries. I. “Solvency II” is new supervisory system, which will be binding for the insurance companies as well as the national insurance supervisory bodies all over Europe. II. In the present financial crisis some states are interfering with the independent financial sector, a part of which is the insurance industry. III. The “Alternative Risk Transfer” (ART) is a method of coping with large catastrophic risks, whose frequency and severity obviously are increasing, and which cannot be mastered with traditional insurance tools. IV. The final remark reminds of a unique development that has recently come to an end: the effort of West-European insurance industries to transfer their knowledge of specific instruments and methods together with theoretical foundations to their colleagues in the East.
Keywords: Alternative Risk Transfer, End of assistance programmes, Solvency II, on State-interference
I
It is binding order issued by the EU that Solvency II, the successor of the much simpler Solvency I, has to be implemented in the insurance industries all over Europe. The EIOPA
(European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority) will control this and furthermore supervise the application of this new system.
It is meant to serve five purposes:
to make the supervision uniform in Europe,
to evaluate the short- and long-term risk management in insurance companies
to identify their financial solvency to make the system more transparent and thus to promote the market disci pline.
Substantially new in particular is the change of focus: Previously the authorities required of insurance companies not much more than the proof of sufficient equity capital and expertise. Now the perspective is another one: of course, they still have to prove that they dispose of enough own capital, but decisive now is their comprehensive competence in managing and mastering risks.
S II rests, so to speak, on three pillars:
The first pillar (quantity) deals with the regulations referring to the evaluation of the balance sheets, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) and the Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR). The SCR can be calculated either with the help of given standard formulas, or by methods developed in the company itself (ORSA: Own Risk and Solvency Assessment). ORSA is the normal — and at the same time most expensive — procedure in larger and complex insurance companies.
The second pillar (quality) describes the qualitative demands on the company and, by the way, also on the national supervisory authorities. Here the companies have to prove that they have adequate organisations, efficient risk strategies and internal control systems, and furthermore they have to identify their princi ples of governance.
The third pillar deals with the duties to yearly report to the public as well as to the authorities the substance of what is said in pillar one, and more in detail the contents of pillar two. It is expected that in this way, i.e. in a sort of self-control of the national insurance industries also the market disci pline will be improved.
Most probably this new system will lead to substantial changes within the European insurance companies, where a “Solvency II — consciousness” must be created, as well as in the industry as a whole. The estimations for its implementation in a large company run up to 10 million Euros, in a medium one up to 5 million and in smaller entities still between 500 000 and two million Euros. And it is said that the yearly expenses to keep the system going must be calculated
at about 20% of the implementation costs. So almost naturally a lot of the smaller companies, which cannot afford such expenditure, will disappear, most likely acquired by the larger ones. And what will happen to the mutuals is still not quite clear. The biggest expenses, by the way, are expected in pillar three with its reporting duties.
Despite many unsolved problems the EU is willing to introduce S II in 2013, setting actually all companies under pressure. As meanwhile more than two thirds of all regulations, decrees etc. for the insurance insurance industry are made in Brussels, it is no wonder that the European companies are forming border-crossing associations to strengthen their influence there. It should be added that, nevertheless, the majority of insurance managers welcome S II.
II
In the so called free or capitalist economy there are a few rules of adamant validity. One of them is the political independence of the State Central Banks and, in Europe, of the European Central bank, whose main functions are to see to the stability of the currency systems. At the moment the political influence on them becomes stronger and stronger, so that the security of the money is fading away. This will presumably entail dangerous consequences for the whole financial sector and its customers. Another almost incredible state intervention in the free enterprise is an enormous pressure on those financial institutions, which hold Greek or Portuguese, lately also Spanish bonds, a pressure either to write them down or prolong their running periods or both. This applies also to major insurers and their reserves. In other words: They are urged give up money their customers trusted them with. All this means a loss of confidence in the financial institutions, let alone the confidence in the abilities of the rather confused governments. And confidence is, as we all know, the main capital of banks and insurers. It goes without saying that these developments have led to discussions, fears and activities previously considered irrelevant. By the way, most banks and insurers have sold such bonds already, if they could. To whom ? Mostly to the European Central Bank thus transforming it into a so called bad bank. It is obvious that the present crisis will not only lead to substantial alterations in the financial industries, but in the political structure of Europe and its economy as a whole.
III
A look at the so called Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) leads back to the insurance industry, and at the same time beyond it.
An alternative transfer of risks is a transfer which is carried out without making use of the traditional insurances. The risk is either transferred into the financial markets by means of financial instruments, or it is transferred with a part of it into insurance market and the other part into financial markets using a mixture of both financial and insurance tools. Perhaps it can be helpful to imagine all this is happening in a broad zone between these two markets, a zone, which is permanently expanding, and at the same time permanently developing new products. So it is understandable that ART defies a precise definition. It is even impossible to describe it in detail, because for every problem a new solution is found. Many insurance managers consider it the most powerful innovation, because in ART procedures there are always enormous sums at stake.
It may be helpful to have a look at the beginning of it.
Towards the end of the last century in the USA a number of catastrophes occurred, either natural or man-made. They were so gigantic that they led to a financial capacity crisis in the insurance industries. Therefore more money was needed and stronger protections than insurance institutions alone could offer. While the money was found in abundance in the financial markets, the necessary protection instruments had to be developed. They partly compliment, partly compete with the conventional insurance, and partly they can be a mixture of both insurance and financial agreements.
ART has become so complex and is used in so many sectors meanwhile that here only a brief outline can be attempted.
The main players in this field are on one side risk bearing entities such as large concerns, governments, corporations and the like, on the other side large insurers, re-insurers, banks, funds and other financial institutions. It adds to the complexity that the members of the two sides can change places or even mix.
ART instruments have these features in common:
they cover risks that prove legally difficult to insure or are altogether uninsurable;
they are not restricted by such principles as insurability, indemnity or the like, which;
means that they can be applied with creative flexibility; they produce tailored cover solutions for each individual need (including needs often unheard of before);
they are, as a rule, cost and tax saving.
To develop such tools, to transact negotiations and then draw up the necessary contracts, ART specialists are needed. They are employed in banks, in large insurance or re-insurance companies and in specialised broker agencies, or they offer their services as independent consultants.
A list of often used tools in their basic form includes e.g. — Contingent capital arrangements ( which are similar to option arrangements).
— Contingent loans ( a variation of CC, with access to a loan instead of capital).
— Finite risks arrangements (complex arrangements to cover usually one risk, sometimes close to betting).
— “Sidecars” ( additional underwriting capacity without increase of capitalisation).
— Dual- or multi- trigger programmes (two or more occurrences are necessary to trigger the claim).
- Insurance linked securities (among them bonds (also CAT bonds issued by special re-insurance companies).
— Insurance linked derivates (among them constructions that resemble “futures”).
— Multi-line and multi year products. — Captive insurance companies. — Captive Re-insurance companies.
All these instruments plus their additions and combinations needed further explanations, but, as said before, this is not possible within the limits of this contribution.
There is no doubt that the importance of ART will keep increasing, because catastrophic events are becoming more frequent and more expensive. Though ART is a rather new phenomenon in the field of financial protection, there is no reason for insurers to regard it as a danger for their business. They are flexible enough to co-operate and take advantage of the chances to re-capitalize their business, and they have something to contribute, which e.g. the investment bankers do not have: They are experts with a long experience and proven tools to analyse, evaluate, calculate and handle risks. It is, in fact, their core competence.
IV
During the last years a singular process has come to an end. I mean the joint effort of the West European national insurance industries to transfer their knowledge of instruments, methods,
techniques and not least of theoretical foundations to their Eastern partners. The beginning about 20 years ago was quite chaotic, and even today no-one knows exactly who did what, and what their motives and intentions were. Some certainly were considered promising financial investments into a future market, but sometimes a feeling of solidarity, not common in this kind of business, became apparent. Anyway, it was a great and successful effort, and meanwhile both parties are in many respects on eye — level. I think, a documentation of these eventful, occasionally even exciting times would be worth the trouble. Ìèõàèë Èãîðåâè÷ Êðèâîãóç, Òîðãîâîå ïðåäñòàâèòåëüñòâî ÐÔ â Óêðàèíå, ÈÌÝÌÎ ÐÀÍ, Ðîññèÿ
Финансовый суверенитет государства
в условиях глобализации
АННОТАЦИЯ
Äëÿ ñîâðåìåííûõ óñëîâèé ãëîáàëèçàöèè õàðàêòåðíî äîáðî-âîëüíîå èëè âûíóæäåííîå äåëåãèðîâàíèå ÷àñòè ãîñóäàðñòâåí-íîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà íà íàäíàöèîíàëüíûé óðîâåíü. Ýòî îòíîñèòñÿ è ê ôèíàíñîâîìó ñóâåðåíèòåòó — ñóùåñòâåííîé ñîñòàâëÿþùåé ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé áåçîïàñíîñòè ãîñóäàðñòâà. Öåëü ïðåäëàãàåìîé ñòàòüè — äàòü îïðåäåëåíèå ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà, îáîçíà-÷èòü ðèñêè è ôàêòîðû íà íåãî âëèÿþùèå. Êëþ÷åâûå ñëîâà: Ãëîáàëèçàöèÿ, ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé ñóâåðåíè-òåò, ôèíàíñû, ìåæäóíàðîäíûå ôèíàíñîâûå îðãàíèçàöèè, ýêîíî-ìè÷åñêèå ðèñêè, ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ áåçîïàñíîñòüПОНЯТИЕ ФИНАНСОВОГО СУВЕРЕНИТЕТА
Ñî âòîðîé ïîëîâèíû XX âåêà ïîíÿòèå ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî ñóâå-ðåíèòåòà íà÷àëî, ñ îäíîé ñòîðîíû, ðàçìûâàòüñÿ (ðÿä ñóâåðåííûõ ïðåðîãàòèâ ïåðåäàâàëèñü îò îòäåëüíûõ ãîñóäàðñòâ â ïîëüçó èõ ñîþçîâ, ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ñòðóêòóð), à ñ äðóãîé ñòîðîíû, íàïîë-íÿòüñÿ íîâûìè çíà÷åíèÿìè. Ïîÿâèëèñü, â ÷àñòíîñòè, òåðìèíû ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî, ýíåðãåòè÷åñêîãî, ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà. Ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ îáåñïå÷åíèÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé áåçîïàñíîñòè ãîñóäàðñòâà è íàöèîíàëüíîé áåçîïàñíîñòè â öåëîì, îñîáûé èíòåðåñ ïðåäñòàâëÿåò ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò. Âàæíî ïîíè-ìàòü ñìûñë ýòîãî ïîíÿòèÿ, åãî êà÷åñòâåííûå è êîëè÷åñòâåííûå õàðàêòåðèñòèêè, âîçìîæíîñòü åãî îáåñïå÷åíèÿ â óñëîâèÿõãëî-áàëèçàöèè, ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé è ïîëèòè÷åñêîé èíòåãðàöèè ãîñó-äàðñòâ. Èçó÷åíèå ðèñêîâ ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà è ïîñëåä-ñòâèé åãî óòðàòû îñîáåííî àêòóàëüíî â ïåðèîä ìèðîâîãî ôè-íàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà. Ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò âûòåêàåò èç îáùåãî ïîíÿòèÿ ãîñó-äàðñòâåííîãî è íàöèîíàëüíîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà. Ïîä ãîñóäàðñòâåí-íûì ñóâåðåíèòåòîì ïîäðàçóìåâàåòñÿ âåðõîâåíñòâî ãîñóäàðñòâà â ïðåäåëàõ ñîáñòâåííûõ ãðàíèö, åãî ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíîñòü â ìåæäó-íàðîäíûõ äåëàõ, íåäîïóùåíèå ïîñòîðîííåãî âìåøàòåëüñòâà; íàöèîíàëüíûé ñóâåðåíèòåò — ñîâîêóïíîñòü ïðàâ íàöèè íà ñâîáîäó âûáîðà ñîöèàëüíîãî è ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî ñòðîÿ, íà òåððè-òîðèàëüíóþ öåëîñòíîñòü, ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ íåçàâèñèìîñòü.  ìåæ-äóíàðîäíîì ïðàâå èñòîðè÷åñêè ñôîðìèðîâàëàñü òàêæå êàòåãî-ðèÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà: ñþäà ìîæíî îòíåñòè ñóâå-ðåííûå ïðàâà ãîñóäàðñòâ íà ðåñóðñû è ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ äåÿòåëü-íîñòü â ïðåäåëàõ ñâîåé òåððèòîðèè, íåäîïóñòèìîñòü äèñêðèìè-íàöèè, íåîáõîäèìîñòü âçàèìîâûãîäíîãî õàðàêòåðà ýêîíîìè÷å-ñêîãî ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâà ãîñóäàðñòâ, ðàâíîïðàâíîå ó÷àñòèå âñåõ ãîñóäàðñòâ â ðåøåíèè ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ïðîáëåì, è òîìó ïîäîáíîå. Íåñìîòðÿ íà âíÿòíîñòü ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ñóâå-ðåíèòåòà, åãî ôèíàíñîâàÿ ñîñòàâëÿþùàÿ íå ñëîæèëîñü â ìåæäó-íàðîäíîé ïðàêòèêå â îòäåëüíóþ êàòåãîðèþ. Åå íåîáõîäèìî îïðåäåëèòü äîïîëíèòåëüíî. Íà íàø âçãëÿä, ôèíàíñîâûì ñóâåðåíèòåòîì (ô.ñ.) ÿâëÿåòñÿ ñïîñîáíîñòü ãîñóäàðñòâ (íàöèé) âûäåðæèâàòü âíåøíèå è âíóò-ðåííèå ôèíàíñîâûå âîçäåéñòâèÿ (êðèçèñû) áåç óùåðáà ñòðàòå-ãè÷åñêèì íàöèîíàëüíûì èíòåðåñàì. Ýòî îïðåäåëåíèå — êà÷å-ñòâåííàÿ õàðàêòåðèñòèêà ô.ñ., êðîìå òîãî, âåñüìà âàæíûì ïðåä-ñòàâëÿåòñÿ îïðåäåëèòü è åãî êîëè÷åñòâåííûå õàðàêòåðèñòèêè — óðîâíè ô.ñ. ðàçíûõ ñòðàí, ðèñêè ô.ñ., ìåòîäû ïîääåðæêè ô.ñ. Êà÷åñòâî ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà â ïîëíîé ñòåïåíè ïðî-âåðÿåòñÿ âî âðåìÿ êðèçèñíûõ âîçäåéñòâèé.  ôàçå ñòàáèëüíîé ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé äåÿòåëüíîñòè ô.ñ. âûñòóïàåò êëþ÷åâûì ôàêòî-ðîì ïîääåðæêè ðåàëüíîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà. Äëÿ ìèðíîãî âðåìåíè âûñîêèé ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò ãàðàíòèðóåò íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêîíîìèêå ðîñò — ôèíàíñîâûå ìàêðîèíñòðóìåíòû (ìîíåòèçà-öèÿ, ñáåðåãàòåëüíàÿ åìêîñòü, áàíêîâñêèå, ñòðàõîâûå, ôîíäîâûå ìåõàíèçìû) îáåñïå÷èâàþò ñáåðåæåíèÿ, ïåðåðàñïðåäåëåíèå, îáî-ðîò äîëãîñðî÷íûõ ñðåäñòâ, ñòèìóëèðóþò ñïðîñ, èíâåñòèöèè â ïðîìûøëåííîå ïðîèçâîäñòâî, óñêîðåííûå èííîâàöèè, è ò.ä. Áåçóñëîâíî, âûñîêèé ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò ñîçäàåò «ýêî-íîìè÷åñêóþ ãðàâèòàöèþ» äëÿ ðåãèîíàëüíûõ ñîñåäåé: ñòðàíû ñ ìåíüøèì óðîâíåì ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà íåèçáåæíî íà-÷èíàþò âòÿãèâàòüñÿ â îðáèòó ñèëüíîãî ñîñåäà. Äëÿ áîëåå ñëà-áûõ ãîñóäàðñòâ ýòî ìîæåò èìåòü ðàçíîîáðàçíûå ïîñëåäñòâèÿ — êàê êîíñòðóêòèâíîãî õàðàêòåðà (íàïðèìåð, Þãî-âîñòî÷íîå ýêî-íîìè÷åñêîå ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâî ñ äîìèíàíòîé Êèòàÿ è ßïîíèè), òàê è íåãàòèâíîãî (äîëãîâàÿ êàáàëà ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè â 80–90-õ ãã. ñ äîìèíàíòîé ÑØÀ). Îáîáùàÿ âçàèìîîòíîøåíèÿ ãîñóäàðñòâ íà ìèðîâîé àðåíå â ðàìêàõ êà÷åñòâà èõ ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà, ìîæíî êîíñòà-òèðîâàòü, ÷òî îò íåãî çàâèñÿò ãåîïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ êîîïåðàöèÿ èëè ïðîòèâîñòîÿíèå ñòðàí. Áîëåå òîãî, ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò ê êîíöó ïðîøëîãî âåêà ôàêòè÷åñêè ïðåâðàòèëñÿ â èíñòðóìåíò ìàíèïóëèðîâàíèÿ ãåîïîëèòè÷åñêèìè èíòåðåñàìè, àëüòåðíàòè-âîé ñèëîâîìó âìåøàòåëüñòâó. Òèïè÷íûì çëîáîäíåâíûì ïðèìå-ðîì çäåñü ÿâëÿåòñÿ Ãðóçèÿ, ïðåâðàòèâøàÿñÿ â ôèíàíñîâîãî ðàáà è ïîëíîñòüþ çàâèñÿùàÿ îò çàðóáåæíûõ äîëëàðîâûõ êðåäèòîðîâ (ÂÂÏ ñòðàíû çà 2007 ã. 10 ìëðä. äîëë., ñîâîêóïíûé âíåøíèé äîëã çà 1 ïîë. 2008 ã. 6,6 ìëðä. äîëë. [1]).  òîì æå íàïðàâëåíèè ñëåäóåò è Óêðàèíà, ñòðåìÿùàÿñÿ âî ÷òîáû òî íè ñòàëî ïîëó÷àòü àíòè-êðèçèñíûå êðåäèòû îò Ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî âàëþòíîãî ôîíäà, äàæå öåíîé îòêàçà îò ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíîé ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ïîëèòèêè [2]. Ïðåçèäåíò ÑØÀ Âèëüÿì Òàôò åùå â 1910 ã. âûäâèíóë íîâóþ íàöèîíàëüíóþ äîêòðèíó âíåøíåïîëèòè÷åñêèõ îòíîøåíèé — «äîëëàðû âìåñòî ïóëü». Òàôò çàÿâèë, ÷òî «äîëëàðû áóäóò ñðà-æàòüñÿ âìåñòî ñîëäàò, äîëëàðû áóäóò ðàçèòü ãîðàçäî ýôôåêòèâ-íåå, ÷åì ñíàðÿäû». Èäåîëîãèÿ äîëëàðîâîé äèïëîìàòèÿ ïîäðàçó-ìåâàëà ïðèìàò ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ïîä÷èíåíèÿ íàä âîîðóæåííîé îêêóïàöèåé, çàäà÷åé àðìèè ïðîâîçãëàøàëàñü çàùèòà çàðóáåæ-íûõ èíòåðåñîâ àìåðèêàíñêîãî áèçíåñà [3]. Ýòà äîêòðèíà àêòó-àëüíà è äî ñèõ ïîð, ÑØÀ âîïëîùàþò åå â îêêóïèðîâàííîì Èðàêå. Ïîäàâëåíèå ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà îñòàåòñÿ äëÿ âå-äóùèõ ãåîïîëèòè÷åñêèõ èãðîêîâ ýôôåêòèâíûì èíñòðóìåíòîì ñîçäàíèÿ ñòðàí-«ìàðèîíåòîê».
ОБЩЕЕ СОДЕРЖАНИЕ
ФИНАНСОВОГО СУВЕРЕНИТЕТА
Æèçíåñïîñîáíîñòü ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà öåëåñîîá-ðàçíî èññëåäîâàòü â òðåõ ïëîñêîñòÿõ. Âî-ïåðâûõ, ìîæíî âûäå-ëèòü ôîðìàëüíûå ýëåìåíòû ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà ñòðà-íû — íàëè÷èå äåíåæíî-êðåäèòíîé ñôåðû (Öåíòðîáàíê è áàíêè), èíâåñòèöèîííûõ ìåõàíèçìîâ (ôîíäîâûé ðûíîê, èíûåôîðìû ïåðåðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ êàïèòàëà), ñáåðåãàòåëüíî-ñòðàõî-âûõ ñèñòåì (ñòðàõîâàíèå, ïåíñèîííî-ñîöèàëüíîå îáåñïå÷åíèå è ò.ä.). Âòîðûì èçìåðåíèåì ÿâëÿåòñÿ ñîñòîÿíèå íàöèîíàëüíîé ôè-íàíñîâîé ñðåäû: õàðàêòåð è äèíàìèêà äîëãîâîé íàãðóçêè, õà-ðàêòåð è îáúåìû èñõîäÿùèõ è âõîäÿùèõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ïîòîêîâ (ñòðóêòóðà ïëàòåæíîãî áàëàíñà), õàðàêòåð è îáúåìû èíâåñòèöèé è ñáåðåæåíèé (âêëþ÷àÿ çîëîòî-âàëþòíûå ðåçåðâû ÖÁ è âíå-áþäæåòíûå ðåçåðâíûå ôîíäû), äèâåðñèôèöèðîâàííîñòü ôèíàí-ñîâîé ñèñòåìû ïî ðåãèîíàì ñòðàíû, ñîñòîÿíèå ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ôèíàíñîâ (âêëþ÷àÿ ôèñêàëüíîå áðåìÿ). Âàæíåéøèì äèíàìè-÷åñêèì ôàêòîðîì ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà ÿâëÿåòñÿ «ôèíàí-ñîâàÿ ãðàíèöà» — óðîâåíü âàëþòíîãî ðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ, ñòåïåíü ñâîáîäíîé êîíâåðòèðóåìîñòè íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû, óðîâåíü ïðÿìîé äîñòóïíîñòè íàöèîíàëüíîãî ðûíêà äëÿ çàðóáåæíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ àãåíòîâ (ôèëèàëû èíîñòðàííûõ áàíêîâ, ñòðàõîâ-ùèêîâ, àóäèòîðîâ, ðåéòèíãîâûõ àãåíòñòâ), ãàðàíòèéíî-ñòðàõîâàÿ çàùèòà çàðóáåæíûõ íàöèîíàëüíûõ èíâåñòèöèé, ïðîçðà÷íîñòü è äèàïàçîí èíûõ êàíàëîâ ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî âçàèìî-äåéñòâèÿ (ïåðåñòðàõîâàíèå, îôøîðíûå êàïèòàëû, òðàíñãðàíè÷-íûå äåíåæòðàíñãðàíè÷-íûå ïåðåâîäû, èíîñòðàíòðàíñãðàíè÷-íûå ãðàíòû è ò.ï.). Òðåòüèì èçìåðåíèåì ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà ÿâëÿåòñÿ íàáîð êà÷åñòâåííûõ ïîêàçàòåëåé ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî ðåãóëèðîâà-íèÿ è ñîñòîÿðåãóëèðîâà-íèÿ ñîöèàëüíî-îáùåñòâåííîé ñôåðû. Ýòè ïîêàçà-òåëè ñ òðóäîì ôîðìàëèçóþòñÿ äëÿ êîëè÷åñòâåííîãî àíàëèçà, îäíàêî íàëè÷èå êàæäîãî èç íèõ âíîñèò âêëàä â êà÷åñòâî ôè-íàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà (áèíàðíàÿ ìîäåëü — «ïðèñóòñòâóåò — õîðîøî», «îòñóòñòâóåò — ïëîõî»). Ñþäà îòíîñÿòñÿ ðàçâèòîå ðåãó-ëèðîâàíèå â îáëàñòè ôèíàíñîâ: àíòè-èíñàéäåðñêîå, áàíêðîòíîå, êðåäèòíîå, èíâåñòèöèîííîå çàêîíîäàòåëüñòâî, óñòàíîâëåíèå ìåæ-äóíàðîäíûõ ñòàíäàðòîâ ôèíàíñîâîé îò÷åòíîñòè, íàëè÷èå ìåãà-ðåãóëÿòîðà ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà, ñèëîâûå ïîëíîìî÷èÿ ó ðåãóëÿ-òîðîâ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ, ýôôåêòèâíîå ïðåñå÷åíèå ëåãàëèçà-öèè ïðåñòóïíûõ äîõîäîâ, ýôôåêòèâíîñòü ñóäåáíîé çàùèòû ïðàâ ñîáñòâåííîñòè, ñòåïåíü êîððóìïèðîâàííîñòè äåíåæíîé ñôåðû è ò.ä. Òàêæå ñþäà ìîæíî âêëþ÷èòü ïîêàçàòåëü íåôèíàíñîâîé íàöèîíàëüíîé óñòîé÷èâîñòè è ñèëû — âåðõîâåíñòâî çàêîíà, çàùèòó ñîîòå÷åñòâåííèêîâ çà ðóáåæîì, âîåííîå, íàó÷íîå è êóëü-òóðíîå äîìèíèðîâàíèå êàê ìèíèìóì â ðåãèîíàëüíîì ìàñøòàáå. Ôàêòû ãîâîðÿò î òîì, ÷òî â ïåðèîä êðèçèñîâ ïñèõîëîãè÷åñêèé íàñòðîé ó÷àñòíèêîâ ôèíðûíêà êðàéíå ñóùåñòâåííî âëèÿåò íà åãî óñòîé÷èâîñòü. Íàïðèìåð, âî âðåìÿ òåðàêòîâ 11 ñåíòÿáðÿ 2001 ã. íå áûëî ôîðìàëüíûõ ïðè÷èí äëÿ ôèíàíñîâîé ïàíèêè — è òåì íå ìåíåå àìåðèêàíñêèé è ÷àñòè÷íî åâðîïåéñêèé ôîíäî-âûå ðûíêè ëèõîðàäèëî â òå÷åíèå íåñêîëüêèõ êâàðòàëîâ, ïî-ñêîëüêó îêàçàëàñü ïîäîðâàíà âåðà â íåóÿçâèìîñòü áåçîïàñíîñòè ÑØÀ. Òîò æå ñàìûé ïñèõîëîãè÷åñêèé ôàêòîð îòíîñèòñÿ ê ôåíîìåíó áåãñòâà íàöèîíàëüíûõ êàïèòàëîâ çà ðóáåæ (ïðåäïðè-íèìàòåëè íå âåðÿò â ñïîñîáíîñòü ñòðàíû ê ýôôåêòèâíîìó ñáåðåæåíèþ), ê ÿâëåíèþ äîëëàðèçàöèè íàöèîíàëüíûõ ýêîíî-ìèê (íàñåëåíèå íå âåðèò â ýôôåêòèâíîñòü íàöèîíàëüíûõ ñáå-ðåãàòåëüíûõ ìåõàíèçìîâ, â ñïîñîáíîñòü ôèíàíñîâîé ñèñòåìû îáåñïå÷èòü ñòàáèëüíîñòü íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêîíîìèêè; ïðè ýòîì ñóùåñòâóåò èððàöèîíàëüíàÿ âåðà â óñòîé÷èâîñòü äîëëàðà ÑØÀ), è òîìó ïîäîáíîå.  ïðèêëàäíîì ñìûñëå äëÿ öåëåé ãîñóäàðñòâåííîé ïîëèòèêè ô.ñ. ÿâëÿåòñÿ êîìïëåêñîì âçàèìîñâÿçàííûõ ïîêàçàòåëåé — àá-ñîëþòíûõ, äèíàìè÷åñêèõ è êà÷åñòâåííûõ; ñâîåîáðàçíûì íàáî-ðîì êëþ÷åâûõ èíäèêàòîðîâ ýôôåêòèâíîñòè ôèíàíñîâîé ñèñòå-ìû â íàöèîíàëüíîì ìàñøòàáå. Ïîýòîìó ô.ñ. ïðîàêòèâåí ïî ñâîåé ñóùíîñòè — ïðè âûñîêîì ôèíàíñîâîì ñóâåðåíèòåòå íàöèîíàëüíàÿ ýêîíîìèêà ñïîñîáíà ýôôåêòèâíî èñïîëüçîâàòü ìèðîâûå ôèíàíñîâûå ðåñóðñû äëÿ ðîñòà, îäíîâðåìåííî îêàçû-âàòü çàìåòíîå âëèÿíèå íà ìèðîâûå ôèíàíñîâûå ïðîöåññû è ïðè ýòîì èìåòü õîðîøèé çàïàñ ôèíàíñîâîé ïðî÷íîñòè â ñëó÷àå íåñòàáèëüíîñòè íà ìèðîâûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêàõ. Ïðè íèçêîì (èëè ïîëíîñòüþ îòñóòñòâóþùåì) ôèíàíñîâîì ñóâåðåíèòåòå ñòðà-íà ëèøàåòñÿ ðû÷àãîâ ñàìîñòîÿòåëüíîé ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ïîëèòè-êè. Ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò. íå ÿâëÿåòñÿ èäåîëîãèåé «ôèíàí-ñîâîãî æåëåçíîãî çàíàâåñà», íàîáîðîò, åãî âûñîêîå êà÷åñòâî ïîçâîëÿåò íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêîíîìèêå ýôôåêòèâíî êîíêóðèðî-âàòü íà ìèðîâîé àðåíå. Ìîæíî âûäåëèòü ñëåäóþùèå ìåòîäû óïðàâëåíèÿ ôèíàíñî-âûì ñóâåðåíèòåòîì: öåëåïîëàãàíèå èñõîäÿ èç ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèõ íàöèîíàëüíûõ èíòåðåñîâ â ìèðîâîé ýêîíîìèêå, ïðîåêòèðîâàíèå óëó÷øåíèé ýëåìåíòîâ íàöèîíàëüíîé ôè-íàíñîâîé ñèñòåìû, ïðîåêòèðîâàíèå íîâûõ ýëåìåíòîâ, ïëàíèðîâàíèå êîîðäèíàöèè è ñèíõðîíèçàöèè, ìîíèòîðèíã ñîîòíîøåíèé ïîêàçàòåëåé ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâå-ðåíèòåòà è êîððåêòèðîâêà äåéñòâèé. Óïðàâëåíèå ôèíàíñîâûì ñóâåðåíèòåòîì èìååò òðè îñîáåí-íîñòè. Âî-ïåðâûõ, ïðè öåëåïîëàãàíèè íåîáõîäèìî ñîáëþñòè
áàëàíñ ïî îáåñïå÷åíèþ îáùåñòâåííûõ èíòåðåñîâ (ãîñóäàðñòâåí-íàÿ ôóíêöèÿ) è ãàðàíòèðîâàíèþ ñâîáîäû ïðåäïðèíèìàòåëü-ñòâà äëÿ íàöèîíàëüíîãî êàïèòàëà. Êàæäàÿ ñòðàíà â çàâèñèìîñòè îò íàöèîíàëüíûõ îñîáåííîñòåé íàõîäèò ñâîé ïóòü.  ÑØÀ ãëàâåíñòâóåò àíãëî-ñàêñîíñêàÿ äîêòðèíà ñâîáîäíîãî êàïèòà-ëèçìà (ôèíàíñîâàÿ ñèñòåìà ïîçâîëÿåò èçâëåêàòü âûñîêóþ ïðè-áûëü, çíà÷èòåëüíóþ ÷àñòü ÂÂÏ ñîçäàåò ÷àñòíûé ñåêòîð), â âåäó-ùèõ êîíòèíåíòàëüíûõ ñòðàíàõ ÅÑ óïîð ñäåëàí íà ñîöèàëüíóþ ôóíêöèþ ãîñóäàðñòâà (çíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü ïðèáûëè ÷àñòíîãî ñåêòîðà ïåðåðàñïðåäåëÿåòñÿ íà ãîñóäàðñòâåííîé îñíîâå, ôèíàí-ñîâàÿ ñèñòåìà â ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü îáåñïå÷èâàåò ñîõðàííîñòü ñáå-ðåæåíèé), Êèòàé ïîøåë ïî òðåòüåìó ïóòè — «ãîñóäàðñòâåííîìó äèðèæèçìó» (ôèíàíñîâàÿ ñèñòåìà äîëæíà ñòàáèëüíî ôèíàíñè-ðîâàòü ïðåäïðèíèìàòåëüñêóþ àêòèâíîñòü â îòðàñëÿõ, îáåñïå÷è-âàþùèõ çàíÿòîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ, è âî-âòîðóþ î÷åðåäü îáåñïå÷èâà-åò ñîõðàííîñòü ñáåðåæåíèé).  Ðîññèè ïîêà íå ïðîñëåæèâàîáåñïå÷èâà-åòñÿ ÷åòêî âûðàáîòàííîé ìîäåëè. Âî-âòîðûõ, ïðè ïðîåêòèðîâàíèè óëó÷øåíèé è íîâûõ ýëåìåí-òîâ ôèíàíñîâîé ñèñòåìû òðåáóåòñÿ êîîðäèíàöèÿ äåéñòâèé ðå-ãóëÿòîðîâ ðàçëè÷íûõ ðûíêîâ.  áàíêîâñêîì, èíâåñòèöèîííîì ñòðàõîâîì, ïåíñèîííîì ñåêòîðàõ ðóêîâîäñòâî ñàìîðåãóëèðóå-ìûõ îáúåäèíåíèé ðûíêà, è ðóêîâîäñòâî ðåãóëÿòîðîâ ýòèõ ðûí-êîâ, è èíûå âîâëå÷åííûå âåäîìñòâà (íàïðèìåð, àíòèìîíîïîëü-íîå) äîëæíû èñõîäèòü èç âçàèìîçàâèñèìîñòè äðóã äðóãà. Ðîñ-ñèÿ ïðåäñòàâëÿåò ñîáîé òèïè÷íûé ïðèìåð âåäîìñòâåííî-ðû-íî÷íûõ äèññîíàíñîâ âî âðåä ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèì èíòåðåñàì íàöèî-íàëüíîé ôèíàíñîâîé àðõèòåêòóðû. Íàïðèìåð, âïëîòü äî 2002— 2003 ãã. íàáëþäàëîñü «ïåðåòÿãèâàíèå êàíàòà» ìåæäó Ìèíèñòåð-ñòâîì àíòèìîíîïîëüíîé ïîëèòèêè è Ôåäåðàëüíîé êîìèññèåé ïî ðûíêó öåííûõ áóìàã (ÔÊÖÁ) çà ïðàâî êîíòðîëÿ íàä áèðæå-âîé òîâàðíî-ñûðüåáèðæå-âîé òîðãîâëåé.  ðåçóëüòàòå â ñòðàíå òàê è íå ñîçäàí ýôôåêòèâíûé ìåõàíèçì òîâàðíî-ñûðüåâîé ìîíåòèçàöèè, âñå öåíòðû öåíîîáðàçîâàíèÿ íà ñûðüå ïî-ïðåæíåìó íàõîäÿòñÿ çà ðóáåæîì. Ìåæäó ÔÊÖÁ è Öåíòðîáàíêîì ÐÔ äîëãîå âðåìÿ ïðîäîëæà-ëàñü áîðüáà çà ïðàâî ðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ ýìèññèè áàíêîâñêèõ îáëè-ãàöèé.  ðåçóëüòàòå ñóùåñòâåííî áûëî çàòîðìîæåíî ðàçâèòèå ñèñòåìû èïîòå÷íîãî ðåôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ (ñåêúþðèòèçàöèè). Ðîñ-ñèéñêèå áàíêè äî ñèõ âûíóæäåíû îïåðèðîâàòü ñåêúþðèòèçàöè-åé ñâîèõ èïîòå÷íûõ çàêëàäíûõ çà ðóáåæîì. Ìåæäó òåì äîñòóï-íîñòü èïîòåêè êðèòè÷åñêè âàæíà íå ïðîñòî íà êîììåð÷åñêîì ðûíêå æèëüÿ, íî è â áþäæåòíîì ñåêòîðå, îñîáåííî äëÿ îáåñïå-÷åíèÿ æèëüåì âîåííîñëóæàùèõ. Íàïðèìåð, â ÑØÀ æèëèùíûå ãàðàíòèè âåòåðàíîâ íà÷àëè îáåñïå÷èâàòüñÿ ïðè ïîìîùè èïî-òå÷íûõ ìåõàíèçìîâ ñ êîíöà Âòîðîé ìèðîâîé âîéíû, è ñåé÷àñ êðåäèòíûå ìåõàíèçìû â âîîðóæåííûõ ñèëàõ ÑØÀ ÿâëÿþòñÿ êëþ÷åâûì ýëåìåíòîì ñîöèàëüíîãî îáåñïå÷åíèÿ âîåííîñëóæà-ùèõ. Íåïðàâèëüíûì ÿâëÿåòñÿ è òî, ÷òî âñå êðóïíûå ïðîìûøëåí-íûå ðèñêè äî ñèõ ïîð ïåðåñòðàõîâûâàþòñÿ íà Çàïàäå, ïîïûòêè îòäåëüíûõ ïðåäñòàâèòåëåé ñòðàõîâîãî ñîîáùåñòâà âûäâèíóòü èíèöèàòèâó ïî ñîçäàíèþ Íàöèîíàëüíîé ïåðåñòðàõîâî÷íîé êîð-ïîðàöèè èãíîðèðóþòñÿ. Ïîñëå ïðîäàâëèâàíèÿ ÎÑÀÃÎ ðîññèéñ-êèå ñòðàõîâùèêè äî ñèõ îðèåíòèðîâàíû íà îáîãàùåíèå çà ñ÷åò îáÿçàòåëüíûõ âèäîâ ñòðàõîâàíèÿ.  ãèïîòåòè÷åñêîì ñëó÷àå, åñëè â îòíîøåíèè Ðîññèè áóäóò ïðåäïðèíÿòû ìåðû ôèíàíñîâîãî ýìáàðãî, ïðè âîçíèêíîâåíèè êðóïíûõ ïðîìûøëåííûõ àâàðèé ðîññèéñêèå ñòðàõîâûå êîìïàíèè áóäóò íå â ñîñòîÿíèè ïîëíîñ-òüþ ïðîèçâåñòè âûïëàòû — âåäü ïåðåñòðàõîâî÷íàÿ ÷àñòü áóäåò çàáëîêèðîâàíà. Ñîçäàíèå Íàöèîíàëüíîé ïåðåñòðàõîâî÷íîé êîð-ïîðàöèè ïîìîãëî áû ñáàëàíñèðîâàòü ìåæäóíàðîäíóþ äèâåðñè-ôèêàöèþ ñòðàõîâûõ ðèñêîâ â ïîëüçó Ðîññèè.  òðåòüèõ îñîáåííîñòüþ àäìèíèñòðèðîâàíèÿ ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà ÿâëÿåòñÿ ïîëíûé ñïåêòð ìîíèòîðèíãà, âêëþ÷àÿ äîëãîñðî÷íûå ïðîãíîçû èçìåíåíèÿ ìèðîâîé ôèíàíñîâîé àðõè-òåêòóðû. Ìîæíî ñêàçàòü, ÷òî ïðè ìîíèòîðèíãå äîëæåí ïðîèçâî-äèòüñÿ ñâîåîáðàçíûé «ôèíàíñîâûé ôóòóðèçì». Íàïðèìåð, óæå ïîðÿäêà äåñÿòè ëåò â êðóãàõ àìåðèêàíñêèõ ôèíàíñèñòîâ õîäèò óñòîé÷èâàÿ ëåãåíäà ïðî ïîäãîòîâêó â ÑØÀ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ñîþçà ñ Ìåêñèêîé è Êàíàäîé: ÿêîáû ýòî ñëåäóþùàÿ ñòóïåíü ýâîëþöèè òåêóùåé îðãàíèçàöèè NAFTA. Ñëåäñòâèåì ñòàíåò îáðàçîâàíèå ôåäåðàòèâíîãî Ñåâåðîàìåðèêàíñêîãî Ñîþçà (íà-ïîäîáèè ÅÑ), ëèêâèäàöèÿ ïåñî, äîëëàðîâ ÑØÀ è Êàíàäû è ââåäåíèå íîâîé åäèíîé ñåâåðîàìåðèêàíñêîé âàëþòû Àìåðî (ìîíåòà óæå îò÷åêàíåíà è ïðîäàåòñÿ â êà÷åñòâå ñóâåíèðà äëÿ íóìèçìàòîâ). Ñåãîäíÿ òàêèå ïðåäïîëîæåíèÿ âûãëÿäÿò ôàíòàñ-òèêîé — íî åùå 15 ëåò íàçàä ôàíòàñôàíòàñ-òèêîé ïðîçâó÷àëà áû èñòîðèÿ ïðî âûáîðû ÷åðíîêîæåãî ïðåçèäåíòà ÑØÀ… Áîëåå ðåàëèñòè÷åñêàÿ êîíñòðóêöèÿ: Êèòàé â ïîñëåäíèå ãîäû ïðåâðàòèëñÿ â ìèðîâóþ äåðæàâó ñ ãèãàíòñêèìè ôèíàíñîâûìè ðåñóðñàìè. Åñëè ÊÍÐ ñóìååò ïðèäåðæèâàòüñÿ ïîäîáíîé òðàåê-òîðèè åùå ïÿòèëåòèå, òî áàëàíñ ìèðîâûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ öåíòðîâ íåóìîëèìî ïåðåìåñòèòñÿ â òðåóãîëüíèê «Øàíõàé-Øýíü÷æýíü-Ãîíêîíã». Êñòàòè, ëîêàëüíîå àçèàòñòêîå íàøåñòâèå ÑØÀ óæå
ïåðåæèâàëè â 80-ãã., êîãäà ÿïîíöû ïîëó÷èëè êîíòðîëü íàä 11% àìåðèêàíñêîãî áàíêîâñêîãî ðûíêà [4].  ðàìêàõ ìîíèòîðèíãà ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà âñå ôàêòîðû äîëæíû âíèìàòåëüíî èçó÷àòüñÿ è ïðîãíîçèðîâàòüñÿ â îòäåëüíûõ ñöåíàðíûõ ìîäåëÿõ.
УРОВЕНЬ ФИНАНСОВОГО СУВЕРЕНИТЕТА
Êàê îòìå÷àëîñü âûøå, ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò èìååò íå òîëüêî êà÷åñòâåííîå, íî è êîëè÷åñòâåííîå èçìåðåíèå. Ìîæíî îáîçíà÷èòü ïàðàìåòðû, îïðåäåëÿþùèå íåãàòèâíûå óðîâíè ô.ñ. äëÿ òîé èëè èíîé ñòðàíû. Êðèòè÷åñêèì óðîâíåì ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà ÿâëÿåòñÿ íåñïîñîáíîñòü íàöèîíàëüíîé ôèíàíñî-âîé ñèñòåìû îòðàçèòü çàðóáåæíîå ôèíàíñîâî-õîçÿéñòâåííîå âîçäåéñòâèå. Îí ïðîÿâëÿåòñÿ â óãíåòåííîì, ëèáî ïðåóâåëè÷åí-íîì ñîñòîÿíèè ìàêðîïîêàçàòåëåé, âàæíåéøèìè èç êîòîðûõ ìîæíî íàçâàòü: À) ìîíåòèçàöèÿ (%). Ïðåäñòàâëÿåò ñîáîé îòíîøåíèå äåíåæ-íîé ìàññû (Ì2) ê ÂÂÏ, ïîêàçûâàåò ñòåïåíü ôàêòè÷åñêîãî îáåñïå÷åíèÿ ýêîíîìèêà íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòîé. Íîðìàëüíûì óðîâíåì ìîíåòèçàöèè ÿâëÿåòñÿ äèàïàçîí 80–150% (â çàâèñèìî-ñòè îò ñòðóêòóðû ýêîíîìèêè) [5]. Ïðè íåáîëüøîé ìîíåòèçàöèè äåíåæíûé îáîðîò ïîäìåíÿåòñÿ òåíåâûìè ðàñ÷åòàìè â èíîñò-ðàííîé âàëþòå, äåíåæíûìè ñóððîãàòàìè, áàðòåðîì è ò.ä. Ïðè ÷ðåçìåðíîé ìîíåòèçàöèè âîçíèêàåò îïàñíîñòü ôèíàíñîâûõ «ïó-çûðåé», ëèáî ãèïåðèíôëÿöèè. Á) ñòðóêòóðíûå èñòî÷íèêè ôîðìèðîâàíèÿ òîðãîâîãî áàëàí-ñà (âõîäèò â ñîñòàâ ïëàòåæíîãî áàëàíáàëàí-ñà). Ïðåäñòàâëÿþò ñîáîé êàðòèíó äèâåðñèôèêàöèè âíåøíåòîðãîâûõ èñòî÷íèêîâ êàïèòà-ëà ñòðàíû. ×åì âûøå äîëÿ ýêñïîðòà òîâàðîâ ñ âûñîêîé äîáàâ-ëåííîé ñòîèìîñòüþ ïðè îäíîâðåìåííî âûñîêîé ãåîãðàôè÷åñ-êîé äèâåðñèôèêàöèè ñûðüåâîãî èìïîðòà, òåì ëó÷øå. Ïðè íèç-êîé ñòåïåíè ýêñïîðòà òîâàðîâ ñ âûñîíèç-êîé äîáàâëåííîé ñòîèìî-ñòüþ ñòðàíà ïîïàäàåò â çàâèñèìîñòü îò öåíîâîé êîíúþíêòóðû ìèðîâîãî ñûðüåâîãî ðûíêà (ýôôåêò ìîíîïðîäóêòîâûõ ýêîíî-ìèê), ïðè íèçêîé ãåîãðàôè÷åñêîé äèâåðñèôèêàöèè ñûðüåâîãî èìïîðòà ñòðàíà ïîïàäàåò â çàâèñèìîñòü îò ïîâåäåíèÿ îñíîâíî-ãî âíåøíåòîðîñíîâíî-ãîâîîñíîâíî-ãî ñûðüåâîîñíîâíî-ãî ïàðòíåðà. Â) êàïèòàëèçàöèÿ áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû. Ïðåäñòàâëÿåò ñîáîé ñîáñòâåííûé êàïèòàë âñåõ êðåäèòíûõ îðãàíèçàöèé; ÷åì âûøå, òåì ëó÷øå. Äåìîíñòðèðóåò ñïîñîáíîñòü áàíêîâ èñïîëíÿòü ñóâå-ðåííóþ êðåäèòíóþ ôóíêöèþ (áåç çàðóáåæíîãî ðåôèíàíñèðîâà-íèÿ).  èäåàëå äèíàìèêà êàïèòàëèçàöèè áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû äîëæíà îïåðåæàòü òåìï ðîñòà áàíêîâñêèõ àêòèâîâ. Ïðè íèçêîé êàïèòàëèçàöèè áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû íàöèîíàëüíàÿ ýêîíîìèêà âïàäàåò â çàâèñèìîñòü îò çàðóáåæíûõ êðåäèòíûõ ðåñóðñîâ, ëèáî óðîâåíü íàöèîíàëüíûõ êðåäèòíûõ ñòàâîê ÷ðåçìåðíî âûñîê è ïîäàâëÿåò ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå. Óñëîâíî ê êàïèòàëèçàöèè áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû ìîæíî îòíåñòè ðàçìåð çîëîòî-âàëþòíûõ ðåçåðâîâ (ÇÂÐ), ÷åì îí âûøå, òåì ëó÷øå. ÇÂÐ ÿâëÿåòñÿ ðåñóðñîì âàëþòíîé è ìîíåòàðíîé ïîëèòèêè íàöèîíàëüíûõ Öåíòðîáàíêîâ. Ã) ðàçìåðû è ñòðóêòóðà ñòðàíîâîãî äîëãà: ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ è êîðïîðàòèâíûõ, âíåøíèõ è âíóòðåííèõ. Íîðìàëüíûå ïàðàìåò-ðû ãîñäîëãà â ìèðîâîé ïðàêòèêå èçìåðÿþòñÿ ñîîòíîøåíèåì çàèìñòâîâàíèé ê âåëè÷èíå ãîñáþäæåòà â äèàïàçîíå 10–50% (ñîâîêóïíî âíåøíèé è âíóòðåííèé ãîñäîëã) [6]. Âàæíûì â ñòðóêòóðå ÿâëÿåòñÿ ñòîèìîñòü çàéìîâ (íå âûøå LIBOR íà 5 ïðîöåíòíûõ ïóíêòîâ) è èõ ñðîê. ×åì äåøåâëå è äîëãîñðî÷íåå ãîñóäàðñòâî ìîæåò çàíèìàòü íà âíåøíåì ðûíêå, òåì ëó÷øå. Íàëè÷èå âíóòðåííåãî ãîñäîëãà ÿâëÿåòñÿ âàæíûì èíñòðóìåíòîì êîñâåííîãî ðåãóëèðîâàíèÿ âíóòðåííèõ ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê è ïðÿìîé ñòèìóëÿöèè âíóòðåííåãî ôèíàíñîâîãî îáîðîòà. Ãîñäîëã ÿâëÿåòñÿ âàæíåéøèì èíäèêàòîðîì ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà, åãî ñîñòîÿíèå íàïðÿìóþ îòðàæàåò ïîäõîä ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ê ïîä-äåðæàíèþ ôèí.ñóâåðåíèòåòà. Ýêñòðåìàëüíîå íàðàùèâàíèå âíåø-íåãî ãîñäîëãà âûðàæàåò äâå ãåîïîëèòè÷åñêèõ êðàéíîñòè: ëèáî ïðàâèòåëüñòâî ïîêàçûâàåò ïîêîðíîñòü âîëå çàðóáåæíîãî ïàðò-íåðà, ëèáî, íàîáîðîò, ñòàíîâèòñÿ çàåìùèêîì-ìàíèïóëÿòîðîì ñâîèõ çàðóáåæíûõ êðåäèòîðîâ. Íàêîíåö, ïîëíîå îòñóòñòâèå ãîñ-äîëãà îòðàæàåò íåñïîñîáíîñòü ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ê ðåãóëèðîâàíèþ ýêîíîìèêè. Êîðïîðàòèâíûé äîëã, âêëþ÷àÿ âíåøíþþ áàíêîâñêóþ çàäîë-æåííîñòü, ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà ïîêàçûâà-åò çàâèñèìîñòü íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêîíîìèêè îò ôèíàíñîâûõ ðå-ñóðñîâ (âíåøíèõ è âíóòðåííèõ ñîîòâåòñòâåííî). Ìàêñèìàëüíî íîðìàëüíîå çíà÷åíèå êîðïîðàòèâíîãî äîëãà äîëæíî áûòü ðàâíî ñîâîêóïíîé ïðèáûëè çàåìùèêîâ â ñîïîñòàâèìûõ ñðîêàõ âûï-ëàòû äîëãà è ïîëó÷åíèÿ ïðèáûëè. Òàêæå âàæíûì íþàíñîì ÿâëÿåòñÿ ñïîñîáíîñòü ñóâåðåííîé áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû â ñëó÷àå íàñòóïëåíèÿ ïèêîâûõ êîðïîðàòèâíî-äîëãîâûõ ïåðèîäîâ îáåñ-ïå÷èòü äåíüãàìè âûïëàòíîñòü (ñî÷åòàíèå âûñîêîé ìîíåòèçàöèè è âûñîêîé áàíêîâñêîé êàïèòàëèçàöèè).  ñòðóêòóðå êîðïîðà-òèâíîãî äîëãà ìîæíî ðàçäåëèòü äâà àñïåêòà: âíåøíþþ äîëãî-âóþ çàâèñèìîñòü îòðàñëåâûõ ëèäåðîâ (à òàêæå ñòðàòåãè÷åñêè âàæíûõ ïðåäïðèÿòèé) è âíåøíþþ äîëãîâóþ çàâèñèìîñòü áàí-êîâñêîé ñèñòåìû. Ïðè âûñîêîé âíåøíåé çàêðåäèòîâàííîñòèîòðàñëåâûõ ëèäåðîâ âîçíèêàåò îïàñíîñòü çàðóáåæíîãî ìàíèïó-ëèðîâàíèÿ èõ õîçÿéñòâåííîé ïîëèòèêîé; â áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìå ñîîòíîøåíèå áàíêîâñêèõ èíîñòðàííûõ çàéìîâ ê îáúåìó âûäà-âàåìûõ âíóòðåííèõ áàíêîâñêèõ êðåäèòîâ, ïî íàøåìó ìíåíèþ, íå äîëæíî ïðåâûøàòü 50%, èíà÷å ñóáúåêòû íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêî-íîìèêè ôàêòè÷åñêè ïðåâðàùàþòñÿ â äîëæíèêîâ çàðóáåæíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ñòðóêòóð. Ä) ñòðóêòóðà è ðàçìåðû èíâåñòèöèé: ïîðòôåëüíûõ è ïðÿ-ìûõ.  ïîðòôåëüíûõ èíâåñòèöèÿõ êðèòè÷åñêèì èíäèêàòîðîì ÿâëÿåòñÿ äîëÿ íåðåçèäåíòîâ â áèðæåâîé êàïèòàëèçàöèè íàöèî-íàëüíîãî ôîíäîâîãî è äîëãîâîãî ðûíêîâ ñâûøå 30%. Ïðè ïðå-âûøåíèè ýòîãî çíà÷åíèÿ íàöèîíàëüíûå áèðæè ñòàíîâÿòñÿ ïîä-âåðæåíû íåãàòèâíîìó âëèÿíèþ ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî âíåñóâåðåííî-ãî êàïèòàëà (áèðæåâîå ïàäåíèå â ñëó÷àå áåãñòâà ñïåêóëÿíòîâ, èëè ôîðìèðîâàíèå «ïóçûðåé» ïðè ñïåêóëÿòèâíîé íàêà÷êå). Äëÿ ïðÿìûõ èíâåñòèöèé (èíîñòðàííûõ è âíóòðåííèõ) âàæíûì ÿâ-ëÿåòñÿ îáúåì è ñòðóêòóðà (÷åì âûøå âëîæåíèÿ â ïðîèçâîäñòâà ñ âûñîêîé äîáàâëåííîé ñòîèìîñòè, òåì ëó÷øå). Òåîðåòè÷åñêè â öåëÿõ îáùåýêîíîìè÷åñêîé áåçîïàñíîñòè ðàç-ìåð ìàæîðèòàðíîãî êîíòðîëÿ íåðåçèäåíòàìè íå äîëæåí ïðåâû-øàòü 50% êàïèòàëà êàæäîé èç íàöèîíàëüíûõ íåôèíàíñîâûõ îòðàñëåé, îäíàêî ïðàêòè÷åñêè òàêîå çíà÷åíèå â ëþáîé êðóïíîé ýêîíîìèêå íèêîãäà íå äîñòèãàåòñÿ. Èñêëþ÷åíèåì ÿâëÿþòñÿ ïðÿìûå èíîñòðàííûå èíâåñòèöèè â ôèíàíñîâóþ íàöèîíàëüíóþ ñèñòåìó.  ñîîòâåòñòâèè ñ îáùåïðèíÿòîé íîðìàòèâíîé ïðàêòè-êîé ìîæíî ñ÷èòàòü êðèòè÷åñêèì ïîðîãîì 30% ìàæîðèòàðíîãî êîíòðîëÿ íåðåçèäåíòàìè áàíêîâñêîé è ñòðàõîâîé ñèñòåì [7]. Ïðÿìûìè èíâåñòîðàìè â ëîêàëüíûå ôèíàíñîâûå ñèñòåìû îáû÷-íî âûñòóïàþò êðóïíûå ìåæäóíàðîäíûå ôèíàíñîâûå áàíêîâñ-êî-ñòðàõîâûå ãðóïïû è ïîñëå ïðåâûøåíèÿ ýòîãî çíà÷åíèÿ îíè íà÷èíàþò ïîäàâëÿòü ðàçâèòèå íàöèîíàëüíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ èí-ñòèòóòîâ.  êîíå÷íîì èòîãå ýòî âåäåò ñ îäíîé ñòîðîíû, ê çàðóáåæíîìó çàõâàòó êîíòðîëÿ íàä íàöèîíàëüíîé ñáåðåãàòåëü-íîé è ñòðàõîâîé åìêîñòüþ, è ñ äðóãîé ñòîðîíû, çàðóáåæíîìó êîíòðîëþ íàä êðåäèòíî-ôîíäîâûìè óñëîâèÿìè. Îáîáùàÿ âëèÿ-íèå ïîêàçàòåëÿ ñîâîêóïíûõ èíâåñòèöèé, ìîæíî ñêàçàòü, ÷òî èõ íàëè÷èå (êîíå÷íî, â ïðåäåëàõ êðèòè÷åñêèõ ïîðîãîâ) ÿâëÿåòñÿ áåçóñëîâíî ôàêòîðîì, óêðåïëÿþùèì ôèíàíñîâûé ñóâåðåíèòåò, ïîñêîëüêó ñòàâèò èíîñòðàííûõ èíâåñòîðîâ â ñòðàòåãè÷åñêóþ çàâèñèìîñòü îò ïðîöâåòàíèÿ íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêîíîìèêè-ðåöè-ïèåíòà, ïîääåðæèâàåò òåìïû âíóòðåííåé êîíêóðåíöèè, ðàñøè-ðÿåò áàçó äîõîäîâ íàñåëåíèÿ è ïðåäïðèÿòèé, óêðåïëÿåò ìåæäó-íàðîäíûé ñòàòóñ ñòðàíû, è ò.ä. È â öåëîì äëÿ êà÷åñòâà ôèíàí-ñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà èíâåñòèöèè âñåãäà ïðåäïî÷òèòåëüíåå äîë-ãîâûõ ìåõàíèçìîâ. Å) îáúåì íàöèîíàëüíîé èíôðàñòðóêòóðû ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûí-êà — êîìïëåêñíûé ìàêðîïîðûí-êàçàòåëü.  íåãî ìîæíî âêëþ÷èòü öåíîâóþ è ãåîãðàôè÷åñêóþ äîñòóïíîñòü äîëãîñðî÷íûõ äåíåæ-íûõ ðåñóðñîâ äëÿ ðåàëüíîãî ñåêòîðà ýêîíîìèêè (êðåäèòíûé, ôîíäîâûé, âåí÷óðíûå ìåõàíèçìû), ðàçâèòîñòü ìåõàíèçìîâ ñáå-ðåæåíèÿ è ñòðàõîâàíèÿ (÷èñëî òèïîâ áàíêîâñêèõ, ñòðàõîâûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ, ÷èñëåííîñòü ÏÈÔîâ, ÍÏÔ), êà÷åñòâî îáñëóæèâà-íèÿ ôèíàíñîâûõ ïîòîêîâ (äåïîçèòàðíî-êëèðèíãîâûå ñòðóêòó-ðû, áðîêåð-äèëåðñêîå è áàíêîâñêîå îáñëóæèâàíèå, çàêîíîäà-òåëüíîå îáåñïå÷åíèå ìåõàíèçìîâ ñåêúþðèòèçàöèè è ò.ï.). Óñ-ëîâíî â èíôðàñòðóêòóðó ìîæíî âêëþ÷èòü òàêæå øèðîòó ôè-íàíñîâîãî èíñòðóìåíòàðèÿ Öåíòðîáàíêà: ÷åì áîëüøå ó íåãî ñïîñîáîâ ðåôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ êîììåð÷åñêèõ áàíêîâ, òåì ëó÷øå. Îáîáùàÿ, ìîæíî ñêàçàòü, ÷òî ïîëíîöåííûé îáúåì èíôðàñòðóê-òóðû îáåñïå÷èâàåò íàöèîíàëüíîé ôèíàíñîâîé ñèñòåìå ïîñòó-ïàòåëüíîå ðàçâèòèå, à çíà÷èò, áåç êà÷åñòâåííîé èíôðàñòðóêòóðû íåâîçìîæíî óëó÷øàòü è êà÷åñòâî ôèíàíñîâîãî ñóâåðåíèòåòà.
