Microsoft PowerPoint - −Ø“‚…Q†[…•…Z…~…i†[0203v2.ppt

(1)

2002/3/26 1

Video-Game Industry

Recent trend in Japanese Market and

Comparison with US Market

Junjiro Shintaku

(University of Tokyo)

Contents Business: Market Size

Market Size in Japan （1999）

1,189

4,851

2,476

5,695

828 Video Game:

Hard

Video Game:

Soft

VTR contents

Music CD

Movie

\ 100,000,000

Hardware: Competition for

De-facto standard

• Xbox -Microsoft

– 2001/11 North America.

– 1.5 million by the end of 2001.

– 2002/2/22 Japan market.

• PS2　Sony

– 2000/3

– Global installed base is 26 million

– Network game service:

PlayStation BB

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2002/3/26 5

Platform (Hardware)

Pub.

Dev.

Pub.

S

oft

ware

Distribution

Scope of Activities

Generation transition of console machine

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 # o f s h ip m ent s ( 0 ,0 0 Famicon S-Famicon NINTENDO64 MegaDrive SegSaturn Dreamcast Playstation Playstation 2

(4)

2002/3/26 7

Soft Market is Shrinking

in Japan

•Soft

market is

2-3 times.

•Soft

market is

decreasing.

•Only hard

market

recover

growth.

3,431 3,978 4,588 4,691 5,408 6,480 6,427 6,603 5,724 5,469 5,678 5,600 2,353 2,624 3,358 3,754 4,030 4,887 4,521 4,885 4,364 4,485 4,014 3,600 1,078 1,354 _1,230 937 1,378 1,593 1,906 1,718 1,360 984 1,664 2,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1 990 ₁991 ₁992 ₁993 ₁994 ₁995 ₁996 ₁997 ₁998 ₁999 ₂₀₀₀ 200 1 e 億円合計ソフトハード出所：メディアクリエイト『テレビゲーム流通白書』各年版

PS1

PS2

Positive Feedback:

Hardware and Software

• Big installed base in hardware

--many variety of software market

--bigger hard sales

• New hardware had generated bigger

software market.

• But

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2002/3/26 9

Many New Entrants

but, High Concentration

• Many software venture entered in game

market

– New hardware stimulate new entrants

– Many birth, many death

– Life time of the venture is getting shorter

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2002/3/26 11

Number of Game Soft Firms

0

50

100

150

200

250

300 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199

1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Famicon S Famicon Sega Saturn Playstation all

資料：アンビット『広技苑2000年春版』毎日コミュニケーションズ。

New Entrants and Exit in Game Software

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 # of entrants # of exit # of competitors # of entrants 1 2 17 18 17 13 19 32 28 21 21 55 58 75 60 51 49 # of exit 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 7 8 16 13 15 26 39 44 66 63 # of competitors 1 3 20 38 54 64 80 105 125 130 138 178 210 246 262 247 233 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 資料：アンビット『広技苑2000年春版』毎日コミュニケーションズ。ゲーム機17機種を対象とした。

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2002/3/26 13

0 .2

.4

.6

.8

1 累積

生存率

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 時間

累積生存率（3）

累積生存率（2）

累積生存率（1）

Kaplan-Meier法

累積生存率曲線：duration

打ち切り変数：censor

群分け変数：e nt

p

群分け変数：e nt

p

群分け変数：e nt

p

群分け変数：e nt

p

Event History Analysis

time

Cumula

tive

sur

viva

l r

ate

Middle Entrants

(1990-93)

Early Entrants

(1985-89)

Late Entrants

(1994-)

ゲームソフトメーカーのシェア推移

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1997

1998

1999

販売本

数シ

ェ

ア

（除携帯

ゲ

ー

ム

）

その他

ナムコ

コナミ

セガ

カプコン

任天堂

ＳＣＥ

スクウエ

ア

資料：メディアクリエイト「ゲー

ム流通白書」各年版

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2002/3/26 15

Concentration Ratio

•Concentration ratio is getting higher after 1995.

集中度の推移 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 92 92 .5 ₉₃ 93 .5 ₉₄ 94 .5 ₉₅ 95 .5 ₉₆ 96 .5 ₉₇ 97 .5 ₉₈ 集中度 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.11 H e rf in da l I n de x 上位5社上位10％ Herfindal Index

データソー

ス：ファミ

通ベスト

３０

Characteristic of Game Software

1) High development cost (big fixed cost)

¥100-200 million (¥3 billion at highest)

Retail price ¥5800-6800

Margin of software firms is ¥2000.

¥2000*100,000=¥200 million

Mass sales is necessary.

2) High risk = low hit ratio

Profitable product is 15-20%

movie：20%, music CD:10%, TV:5%

3) Short lifetime

Low Hit Ratio

97年 98年 97年 98年 97年 98年 97年 98年計 95 176 98 72 10 7 203 255 458 (31%) (41%) (45%) (45%) (28%) (28%) (36%) (41%) (39%) 102 157 66 54 11 8 179 219 398 (33%) (36%) (30%) (34%) (31%) (32%) (32%) (35%) (34%) 38 37 27 21 8 3 73 61 134 (12%) (9%) (12%) (13%) (22%) (12%) (13%) (10%) (11%) 38 33 18 8 3 4 59 45 104 (12%) (8%) (8%) (5%) (8%) (16%) (10%) (7%) (9%) 31 29 8 5 4 3 43 37 80 (10%) (7%) (4%) (3%) (11%) (12%) (8%) (6%) (7%) 7 2 0 0 0 0 7 2 9 (2%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (1%) (0%) (1%) 合計 311 434 217 160 36 25 564 619 1183 ヒット率 24% 15% 12% 8% 19% 28% 19% 14% 16% ヒット作品の本数シェア 83% 74% 55% 47% 64% 84% 77% 71% 74% * メディアクリエイト作成の売上本数より筆者作成。 20∼ 100∼ 10∼ 合計 0∼ 1∼ 5∼ 万本プレイステーションセガサターン NINTENDO64

(10)

2002/3/26 19 図4-2 売上推移の平均像 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 発売後週各週売上（万本） 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 各週売上累積比率初発率逓減率総売上本数（万本）観測週平均 0. 296 0. 499 4 0. 24 7 2 3.7 標準偏差 0. 499 0. 162 4 .69 7 1 0.1 最小値 0. 032 0. 249 3 .68 2 1 5.0 最大値 0. 716 0. 979 32 7. 37 8 7 2.0 サンプル数 1 04 1 04 1 04 10 4 注）メディクリエイト集計の売上データから、 1997年と 1 9 98年発売で 1 5週以上の売上データがあるものを対象とした。

Transition of Sales by Week

# of week after introduction

Cum

ul

ativ

e %

Sa

les

vo

lu

m

e (0

,0

00 )

図4-5 ヒットタイトルの売上パターンの比較対照 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 発売後週数各週売上本数(対数目盛）資料）メディアクリエイト売上データを筆者が加工。Ａ：みんなのＧＯＬＦ（ＳＣＥ）Ｂ：ファイナルファンタジータクティクス（スクウェア）総売上初発率逓減率回帰曲線Ａ 158万本 8% 61% Ｙ = 132715Ｘ -0.725　R2=0.947 Ｂ 128万本 53% 30% Ｙ = 678997Ｘ -1.737　R2=0.995

# of week after introduction

Sa

les

vo

lu

m

e

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2002/3/26 21

Market Size: US > Japan

Game Market: Japan vs US

0 2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

# of Console Hardware Shipment

(000)

0 10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Sales of Software (000)

US-Hard

Japan-Hard

US-Soft

Japan-Soft

Hard: 1997

Soft: 1999

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2002/3/26 23

Sales Volume by Major Region

(Software, 1998)

ゲームソフトの地域別売上（1998年）

27,817

57,118

35,980

8,957

63,000

9,580

0 50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

N64

PS

1,000本

North America

Europe

Japan

Market Share of Software

PS and N64

（

YTD 10/99）

出所

: IDG “Multimedia Industry Update” December 1999

PS･N64用ゲームソフトシェア（金額ベース）

EA

Nintendo

Sony

その他

Acclaim

THQ

Konami

Infogrames

Namco

Lucas Arts

Eidos

Capcom

Mid

Share by sales

(13)

2002/3/26 25

Location of Game Software Firms

Silicon Valley

3DO, Capcom, Codemaster, Eidos, Electronic Arts, Empire Interactive, Infogrames, Koei, Konami, LucasArts, Namco, Natsume, Ripcord, Ubi Soft Sega of America,SCEA Working Designs Austin Blue Byte New York Accalaim, GT Interactive, Simon & Schuster Interactive, Take Two

Dallas

The Gathering of Developers

L.A.

Activision, Atlus, Crave Entertainment, Disney Interactive, Fox Int., Havas, Interplay, Mattel, Novalogic, SquareEA, Tecmo, THQ, Titus

North Carolina Red Storm Southpeak Boston Hasbro Int. NJ Majesco NY Vatical Seattle Bungie Microsoft Nintendo of America Chicago Jaleco, Midway Games テキサス州

Sales Trend of Top 10 Firms

Top 10 Firms in US

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

S

ale

s V

o

lu

me

NINTENDO OF AMERICA ELECTRONIC ARTS SONY COMPUTER ENT. (SONY) ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT MIDWAY MAJESCO THQ ACTIVISION 989 STUDIOS (SONY)

Sales of Nintendo and

Sony are decreasing.

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2002/3/26 27

Exclusive Domestic Markets

• Japan to US

Successful product is limited in

– a few famous product

– Software developed by platform firms

– Software developed by American affiliation

• US to Japan

– No big hit title

• Why?

1) Big PC Market

• US PC game market is bigger than Japan.

USソフト市場（1999年）

000s Unit 000 $

3 Console

99,147 3,688

PC Entertainment

59,800 1,363

資料:IDG,"The multimedia Markets in North America and Europe" March 2000

2) Major genre

• Japan -- RPG

• US – Action and Sports 67%

ジャンル別売上本数構成比: PS 1999年 19.6% 27.7% 13.6% 37.0% 41.9% 15.3% 20.0% 24.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% US市場日本市場アクションスポーツ RPG その他

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2002/3/26 31

3) High concentration ratio in top

developer

• Concentration ratio is high

little lower in US

Top 5

Top 10

Japan (1999)

61.3% 75.3%

US (2000)

52.4% 68.8%

売上本数ベースの企業集中度

US市場小売集中度

1-10/1999 1-9/2000

PS

Wal-Mart

19%

Best Buy

13%

15%

Toys R Us

14%

15%

Babbage's/Funco

9%

13%

Electronics Boutique

11%

12%

Top 5

66%

74%

4) High concentration in

distribution

• Pressure from big retailer: promotion, price

>> Marketing skill is important

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2002/3/26 33

5) Longer life

– Sales is almost zero in 20th week in Japan.

– Some title have over one year life in US.

– Ranking in Jan. 2001

RANK TITLE

Int. Date GENRE

Publisher

1 PSX WWF SMACKDOWN NOV'00

WRESTLING

THQ

2 PSX DRIVER 2

NOV'00

COMBAT RACING INFOGRAMES

3 PSX TONY HAWKS PRO SEP'00

EXTREME SPORTSACTIVISION

4 PSX FINAL FANTASY IX NOV'00

HARD-CORE RPGSQUARE EA

5 PSX GRAN TURISMO 2

DEC'99

ACTION ORIENTE SONY

6 PSX MADDEN NFL 2001 AUG'00

FOOTBALL

ELECTRONIC A

7 PSX TONY HAWKS PRO SEP'99

EXTREME SPORTSACTIVISION

8 PSX TEKKEN 3

APR'98

FIGHT/HEAD TO HNAMCO

9 PSX DRIVER

JUN'99

COMBAT RACING INFOGRAMES

10 PSX SPEC OPS

APR'00

ACTION

TAKE 2 INTERA

11 PSX SPY RO: Y EAR OF DOCT'00

PLATFORM/SCRO SONY

Japan: Challenge for Online

Game

• Brand new type of game, “online game” is

needed for making new phase of market

growth.

• Established Japanese firms had been

skeptical, cautious.

• But PC and network infrastructure are

establishing in Japan (2001)

• Network capacity of console machine.

• Platform: PC or Console

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2002/3/26 35

Challenge for Online game

• Online Simulation Game

– Console

– Expansion of packaged software

• MMORPG (Massively Multi-player Online

RPG)

– PC platform

• massive users, communication tool

Microsoft PowerPoint - −Ø“‚…Q†[…•…Z…~…i†[0203v2.ppt

Video-Game Industry

Recent trend in Japanese Market and

Comparison with US Market

Junjiro Shintaku

(University of Tokyo)

Contents

1. Shrink in Japanese Market

2. Concentration on a Few Major Companies

3. 3 Basic Characteristics

4. US Game Market

Contents Business: Market Size

Market Size in Japan （1999）

1,189

4,851

2,476

5,695

828

Video Game:

Hard

Video Game:

Soft

VTR contents

Music CD

Movie

\ 100,000,000

Hardware: Competition for

De-facto standard

• Xbox -Microsoft

– 2001/11 North America.

– 1.5 million by the end of 2001.

– 2002/2/22 Japan market.

• PS2 Sony

– 2000/3

– Global installed base is 26 million

– Network game service:

PlayStation BB

Platform (Hardware)

Pub.

Dev.

Dev.

Dev.

Dev.

Dev.

Dev.

Dev.

Dev.

Pub.

Pub.

Pub.

S

oft

ware

Distribution

Scope of Activities

Generation transition of console machine

Soft Market is Shrinking

in Japan

•Soft

market is

2-3 times.

•Soft

market is

decreasing.

•Only hard

market

recover

growth.

PS1

PS2

Positive Feedback:

Hardware and Software

• Big installed base in hardware

--many variety of software market

--bigger hard sales

• New hardware had generated bigger

software market.

• But

Contents

1. Shrink in Japanese Market

• PS2　Sony