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(1)Estimating the Effect of Solar Activity Changes on the Global Warming 8. Kiminori ITOH* Synopsis A trial was made to estimate the effect of solar activity on the global warming by using temperature proxies (sea surface temperature, ''0 content in coral leaves, and freezing date for Lake Suwa) and solar activity indices (aa index and cosmogenic isotope ''Be). By matching these data each other for the period from 1650 AD, it is concluded that the solar activity is the main factor in the increasing trend of the global temperature in this century. The Lake Suwa data showed an increase near 1500 AD, which was consistent with an increase in the solar activity found in the ''Be data. 6. 1.. FF. ik6%~4a>%f%ir L 6 I@ikE%a>@@zk# CZL-> 7. M£$a>%?Efi; k " W ? 2 E k # . f 6 f i h k b \ 5 z r 12, =+lk*-&%+E%&%iZA3 f2B @&JFk 6 P P ~ B6, T ~I@iCE%@@zfi;E%8 & U s a > 280ppm fib b %@a> 360ppm ir@kIU L k (Fig. 1 Z 2 t2, 2 9 % 7'2% ST, @fi<M@E%b~A3f2%@%1Zk7~\6 L2% ~ 7 ~ \sz, a . -@it=Es@ga>@nui~m 9 L 7 @ & a > ~ 5 @ % I t f T L 7 b ~ 6I@it=E%a> 0 &%j3Ek#a>%%& L T B % $ < @9??h&$h6 aid:. %-rjsx/?ESB%trdc6?R@lCa>q%t&~ h 9 , zZ&+&~q$$LTziejb~%?Efi~,1 @ 4 C E % @ h a a > T ~ @ L d ) h 6r a \ L R % & S h a z r % b 0 L L 2 r r ::tag f 2 9 7 , +@*ztz&Bq$$LTb\6*3 0.5O c a>% ? R k # f i ; ~ @ l C E S a > @ n a t r 16 2 b \ j@zi~td: L f j ~ L \ f i b \ ( ~ e r r1997), , Fig. 1 4 L Z L T z D i 2 , Ltf LifSl 3 + b \ i ~ L f j S h6, I @ i C E S @ E 3 5 4 C 2 %?E(F@%Sitii?R E : SST) a > M i % T h 6 ( 7 . - P i ~ 9 L \ T i & % ? & a >. .. s%. & ,I SST a>2%$ifirCO, a>@@& 9 hT-3 2 % 3 b \ f i { , 100 qa>;i?--lL i Z f 2 6 2 m%a>~@a>@3@i2%%--&L7~\6 dc 5 l . Z % J & k 6 , LiJhL, ~ E ~ > J ~ ~ ~ = L - P - : /: 1 P-Vs Y a > % % & R 6 2, ; 5 - x / f ~ i ~ ~ @ f2ZSTt 3 f 2 b \ , flJJXCf Hansen a>A@jE;f-71~ iZ L 6 2 i P-V 3 2 t~ L h i f , BE 20 +@? t Z % k j ' t 3 6 I @ i C E % f s ~ " D ? E S ? $ % ~ X~ z a L ?RB!lCl@@Cd;, AclriShb a>=7 a Y I k + & Y 2@ a,@!PirL66Bl%T;iJ r Z ~ t r @ % L 7 b \ 6 (Hansen, 1997), 2 a>%% && IZ L 7, Hansen 6 id: 1980 q i 3 h b a > % ? R k # - a > ~ ~ I . z ~ b C, \-C~ ?a>Es3iTiz%?+tZE@ Lt%fi4&8 $bTz a > f k L T b \ 5 , T f 2 b G Hansen b i r d c h i d , Fig. 1 fi~bf~b$La%#bf2m%C3~~?&->7~\6 ~ 2 k i Z f 2 6 , Hansen 6C3@%, - R L ~CO,O?R Z?$%iZ L 6 M%?BB!4C L-c 3 TZfiX, I%% o?HF\1d:r % a h < 2 L 7 , !Pf2< 2 %BEa>%?R k # i r ~ b \ - c i & , co, @ h n T S t - f r ~ 2~fih~ ~ ~. &$&a. TSf2b\r%%Shf~a>iam%~~ha~. 4 % 291 i 240-8501 @'&$#k-y GET%$$$+ 79-7 Department of Environmental Physical Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Yokohama National University, Yokohama 240, Japan. (1999 q 11 1 s gej>. a.

(2) Z h i L H L T , Damon 2 Peristykh 63, Svensrnark % { t a Eddy o>%%(@JkisEddy, L T , %@%?.2 ; k P g % a z a a I;aHL\'rr8&~%?Rb~Wrt53Tfifi~?f;IEBT ~ ~ ? ? ~ E T ~ @kBY.~-7-3%% ~ % ~ & L ~ , & 5 2 L\%fz%,6BBizWT6?$ LL\&%??j7 %RfiaY/~-Yitd;. AB%,6Bf93azafix%?B 9 T , +@$za%?.@/kizHT6k@%%a%+ &A25%E@ 2 L 7'r (Damon & Peristykh, 1999), T ! B l t = 2 B < @ E T 6 ~ 2 % E t t l L~ ,P B % B a @ a\ 6 i z k B a % % a a z B f i : , &E%@iea@ i a ~ t t ~ t = ~ s a 5~2~LfTcLr \, ~ ~ ~3 J$, a 5 A ' i t d ; z a g ~ 2 ~ ~ L f d b \ , r~7iz%4j'C36%B%?B@/Ca&ra.r-Th6 2 &$E L 7'r (Lassen & Friis-Christensen, 1995: 2 a> h 5 ir, @%$%iiiia>@!t=G~HT 6, I @ l k Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997), E%Bgk#a%G2.;kB%Bzaa%saB %%J! iZ-b\Tltd;\ %%fix~!f!~Tb\fd~\, LbL, r :&%, %l$2aZl&%@iz-b\~a&<a435 ;ZE i 2&iz, 6izkP%aa%%afix%%%iEiz%@T 6%2=z.Ad~%9fi~@%$hT%Z o ,D L 5 fd%fBi@j75 2 2 i3I$i%T& 5 (@@\ 1999), % fz, $ % @ a a - 3 2 L T a k P B z B a % % 2 B @ % 5 22 & 3 \.L !JE@Q5{&€Flbv< ZL I/2 s Y&f75kT%%%b!JfLE%fi~&6 2%k $%*Titd;Za%aize&\ ~ f i & f ~ & ~ T i3h 6 fix, A 9 %gfdAl$2%BEE 2 %?Rit%E a @ H ir A 9 k P g a % @ 2 ~63 f?c3iEBiz?T Year AD iilw-6 : 2 2%&Tzo. -3,1970 1977) 2 # % 2. .. Fig. 1.. A comparison between the sea surface temperature and the concentration of CO,. Data sources are as follows: for the CO, concentration, http://cdiac. esd. ornl. gov/f tp/trends/co2/ lawdome. smoothed.yr20 (Law Dome data) and http ://cdiac. esd. ornl. gov/f tp/ndpOOl/maunaloa. co2 (Mauna Loa) : for SST,http://cdiac. esd.ornl, gov/trends -> temp -> jonescru.. 2 s : WSJtBf kBB"P25%. 2.. @fi%;& &,@b!JfdEl @&A,%?Ei'Z&iETh6 SST 2 , % &~L%~'C~~%~$~%B~T)%@DEET ?~h-%%Br] ZZG~L6$332ij&fixj3b&~6 aa4> T . y 3 ~ (r$L < i3f%%)2 ??EBT6z 2 iLEb\7?, % 5 r,L, % % G z x ~ 9- -YY%fTLK, g%jG!G , z\ Fig. 1 ' TB6 L 5 fL%3Tm%??z2a6z 2 fi5T36 fix, 2. 1.. Secas (shifted) Seychelles. AQI 8 (shifted). New Caledonia. -3.6. I. I. I. I. 1700. 1800. 1900. 2000. 1. Year AD F i g. 2.. Time courses of changes in the 180concentration in coral leaf samples from different points. Data were taken from ftp://ftp. ngdc. noaa,gov/paleo/coral, and were 5-year averaged (twice)..

(3) 6%?Eit@B2LT&kh&<H b \ b h 6 a > i - h , ti8 r h f i : g % r - s ~ g ~ ; t i a ~ ; i ~ i d : t=f-~ Z: ~ T, \~ T *a>+@ZZ@T;tib (@JAG2 B r i f f a & Osborn, 3 6 Et3Ef9jF~7a>a)?Elt@B 2 k%%@Ei4% 2 1 9 9 9 ) ~ ~ 7 5 h ~ % % r b i - hM*a)+%ir , h 97% % M = @ T 6 2 2 t r L 7 ~ ,BYP&izi-h, A%N7's3 Z b 6 a > T B i E $ & \ B , T i b 6 0 37z, Z @ / k @lt=E%a>Mt,YW%tR~3 6 1860 +ZTa>f9j?aEj iZ%b 'T , %?Rit@B2 AFB%BtZ4%2 i3f HKT E % a > % ~ f i f % h R T 6 2 ti8*a>FfiE$!&A/iLf6 62b\55$9%%%$!3T3fdb\, %%, Jones b$ 6 21EZLT, % % t z z 9 - l b % g k T z & l , =f5L'fz%9 1000 F i r R a , & 2 LT%%ZZ@ir k a>%%%&ir LT. S @ d Z i L % t - f 6 R ~ a > Z @ ~ @ 6%?E%lkG3, % i ~1800 +1ta>l$ifif%%BI]Za> k E L 7 z o B % a > k 5 IL, 42H L 7 z A B B @ % B (''Be 7'9 ) a>Mk$fif 1420 %, %?&@ ti. B (New Z @ k 9 hi3hfd 9 iff;< f 2 9 T b \ 6 ( B r i f f a & Osborn, 1999), ?a>Tz a, 2 t T i - h U 7 ; i ~ % . f Caledonia 4W@l%a>180 a)f%jki$fif 1650 qf.2 i & a > R % B % H b ' z k i r LTz, a>?, 1650 +fib b I@lt=E%a>gEi&!J~fif 9f6fih 972 1900 + % 3 T a ) f 9 j ~ ~ 7 2 & @ i r L ~ Z , 2 . 3 . jkR 7 7& k U.'rnBlh%a) 180E@ %?E, k%%B2Wr, E % P H ~ % A / X - T ~ Z &i3&$&b~a>~, ~ 9 f i h a > ~ @ 2 ~ b \ ~ * # i t , f a)?iz.~~;@sik L T ~ U m\r;ma,i-h. tizi it!l (filk C2Delmas, 1992) (Thompson e t a l . , B @ @ 6 k 5 i r T 6 k b\ 5 %?&%Mb\'f~, %?BE g t r q b \ - c i - h . 1860 +i311;%&3~a, SST ZZ@& 1998) CLS~\T%%E $ h 7 z j k % 3 7q D . 180 fd P DM12YPTib 6, I Z I ~ % ~ S % ? E ~ ~ @ L-TB,~ 4W%l & +?5 % D 2BR L T ? k W h b ~ E i E 2 ? 7 b \ E , i z 2 h k & 5 %a>%BibT%rR72fi&izBC23%Pa>M12YPfifib6, %%++@-DB ! Ii_n&a> k 5 f6%?@ l% l f; k U l k Y M B % i ~ ; t j ' b \ T , FJiCYP k * t ~ . ? R E % a > E i E 2 ? 7 5 k b \ 5 +IIb3Ql%97zo ?$%irA 6%F#fif@2 6fibZ)i~,. 2hba>X+3+ k E % 4 % t ~ q b \ T C - h , %%BqSZZ@T;ti6 aa 4 Y?.:, 3 x % & - @ 2 L,H & ~ Z af?i-tfi&tr T~ a > ~ i i z # ~ i - h % ? ~ i r ~ r lL "rw a , mmBTrA, Sr/Ca k$&k'a B %SE?EESST % E R 3 P 6 2 f9jF~7??@if L 7zo %?Eit@B, k%%BE@*i:, s h a d : , 180 B W - ~ L SST ~ L ~ T K L T L G ~ % % i r T % l t : ( 3 z k L-c, 5 5;tiab\i-h l o F%@ (Evans e t a l . , 1998), Z& k~6?'--9C-h, W$J% 2 B) L T H b \ ' f z i 3 f , S h f ~ L T k @ . t %%%j"E NOAA -I?@ ' -fkE@k$%% i 9 5' -CDIAC ;3+ ; 5 ~ w l tL = ~Z, 7"PiLk +kg/Ca>~Z@i3f429--+.;, bT 2 M s b T b \ T i $ b \ g b \ , r 2 T i & , 2h El a?' 2.2. %;EL~tBE 9 %l%H Lfz (@$) , Fig. 2 iL, $C 3n b h r b \ a ct; 5 tr, F&%BqSirk 6%?E %l%fi>b%% b h ' f z l80 gB7- 3r 2%T0 a>EZ@i-h 1860 %%fihbP$3 9 , =f-hU$Ja>%?g i 3 % ? R l t @ B i L L El %t+f2b\, Ef9jr~7ir%b-f. <. +nit&. <. <. am+ram. %m. v. v. v,. -. <. e!%&it&a>ffW. $'a. 6o. r. 1400. 1500. 1600. 1700. 1800. 1900. 2000. Year AD Fig. 3.. Freezing d a t e f o r Lake Suwa (Harada, 1977). a 5-year average (twice).. The t h i n curve i s. 2.4. %~fi~~CO;~%~i!$@. Fig. 3 1 ~ 7 L 6 ~J .E5 i r , 1443 q f i h h 1975 +;.k. B $ t r % V 6 % ? E I % @ B k L T J - Z - ~f d h a> t ~ $ , 3a>rg%~~&fi4 ~ (R ~ 1 ,1977),. wmwTt%a>B< > a2z3~ o?eF % !%<. a. a. T,. 2, % !i3it'&. ~ i r ~ %2@%a) q , 1.1-fi~~~a$k~ ?jz~ ~ \ a ,.

(4) % I3 A $ F L ' 1 : 3 t3%*@B, i!?EL\1: 3 b3tEE6B Th6, Fig. 3 a> d a t e IEG3, 1 Jl 1 I3 ??E@ir. i 2 i 2 E k f i j T 6 a>T@*BE@ 2 L T %Ebh 6i3', kEa>@%E@Ja>@E1:L T % G H T & 6 0 L T , &%@lFJEl J?L'd12Brn@%T% L, EL\ %ir, A%+a>?#$@BPa'Jd4 1 +@ET&6f:&i~, ?%&t&iEa>B%T&L7z%~T&6, %7c, %I% 14C izk@-T5 kT-3 k6Pa'J&7'1'6/n\@Efi:&~\o %&D?%&t3, @%a)@% BL\ El (2 A 1 3 I3 + d a t e = d % f f T & b , Z ZTl3, J. Beer t $ k i r L 9 E %$ht,7 9 -Y?Y F a > % R 3 7 a ) % 6 i ~ k 43 L 9 'b -I-% iriEa)li$(fiJ X 1350) 284 9 3 T 9$9bh7: '"Be YX-31 (1420 +-1980 +)2HL\7z0 7zo Fig. 3 bz t3, %Y'- 31 1: 1: % ir, 5 +F@a> Beer b Cd;%ir, '"Be $$$E&ikd< 18 @$El%a)i&l% FfBiwzL-cItia. ~ B1:m:a>~m,s~-rr. D f i 4 , *BE'JirWT6g%a @ @ c a ~ ~ ~72,& ~ t i %tE@4L1: & < H K L T L \ 6 Z 1: ? ? % L T L \ 6 (Beer e t a l . , 1994), a a 4 YTTy3 Xb3, M@%a>@~Cd~b@ftrl$$h. 2.5. AMj%%B+$ k%%@Ja>%E%@bE%$$hT37zoReid (1987) i~ k 9 T % A $h7:k%%,6%*, %%a>. 6 , %%a%%!@ 0@L\%@T&6 (Gorney, 1990), kEa>@%E@Jit,f3&< 7'26 2 , M l % i ~ 3 j. k%sJ&BBt3kEa&a>lT79-31-Th6 B-T6kEBa>3&BfiX@L, k%Rizk::6M@% 6, M%-a>;k%g@Ja>%%&sTEt%%hb, a>f&%fi$fr3 < f1'66, ?a>@B?? n T ( 3 - 1 f X 7 I'2%&?1'6% a)id:, @rn?@@d<A%&% 1:@f%-T -1 ??%fek L T & L7ca>$ a a 4 > 7 ' . ; , 3 X T 6: kiLL1tiT!kS::6 14C (fijk-ba*Sonett, 1991). h a o k ~ @ % % @ J $ A 3 b \ 1 a: a 4 > 7 ' y 3 2. t a A 5 < aaa>T,~ ~ c T ; ~ ? @ @ B ~ ~ c z z + !k&B1:t32,!@Ra>~i%1: f ~ 5a a, 4 ~ 7 . 3~ y a>5Z&C3 1868 qi31b Li317'1'6L\a>T, Z h L 9 3 &iz~L\Tr310BeY'-Pir@@Z$@6 Z 1: CL L7z0. '"Be (Beer e t a l . , 1990), 36C1 (Plummer e t a l . , 1997) 7'1'6 F a l 4 l C W ~ 6. h F@%13k%Bir L 9 ~%%nimc-t'b;a7Ja DT, T @ @ $ m r a k E. a>@%%%1:9@R-T5, @ 9 T , Z h b D R l C k % t m % a a > t m - c i m O m*fs Fir @ 9 33h-f~ 14C fi?kPBg@JQZ@LTL\6Z 1: %k? 13, Eddy(1977) i r k 9 @%&hi%, 1650 qiS1b 1700 +% T@ZL\7:kPJ$E%a)$L?#$#@J ir, ? a > % R Z T h 6 Maunder a>&??ZLT?? ~ 9 ' - i = ? A k & & L, zir, .La>fgjaaEf753u .;,lTir;t;'636/J\ikBb~%KLTL\6 Z 1: ??E % L7z0 L151 L, 14C b3A%qa>?+$3?6'@Pa'J75zEL\a>. #ma,. 2.6.. >S-+Y. I'. bk\Ga)7-9IfRf+. 1) Ii!%?It=!??%~@ t3, h t t p : / / c d i a c . esd. o r n l . gov/ftp/trends/co2/1awdome. smoothed. yr20 Y (Law Dome 20 q F ? R i k CO, 7.- 31) $3 L I h t t p ://cdiac. esd. o r n l . gov/ftp/ndpOOl/maunaloa. co2 (79'f u 7 CLI a>~?@lkE%7'- 31 ) i 5 h. a$+ L 7zo. T,~ ~ ~ E I L ~ ~ F 5 ~, w, R I 14c L ~ ~2 ) SST T Lid: ~, h t t p : //cdiac. esd. o r n l . gov/trends -> temp -> jonescru 31 h a $ +L7zo BBa>lkb\It=;f;R$3a>Rf%iz L 9 %%+a> 14c2s Bbj 1;h'fz7zbj, a+a>l4c 5Z@C3kE2Elt=a>E 3) 4fft Z!!i @ 0 180 7. - 31 t& , f t p : / / f t p . ngdc. noaa. gov/paleo/coral i31 1;B$+L 7zo h%k L T T B % T h 6 , '"Be a>@@t3, l@*B-b~. A SST. IIIII,IUHIIIIItUI,YIIIIII. 4. I. .-1'840 1860. ,. l. 1880. ,. '8 0. s. l. .. 1900. l. r. l. ,. 1920 1940. l. ,. l. .. 1960 1980 2000. Year AD Fig. 4.. A r e l a t i o n between ASST (5-year averaging , twice) and 180 d a t a from S e y c h e l l e s i s l a n d s (5-year averaging, twice). The s u p e r p o s i t i o n i s a r b i t r a r i l y c a r r i e d o u t i n such a manner t h a t t h e two curves matches each other a s f a r a s possible..

(5) Caledonia "0 5- 9&kE@$jEj5t (4 iZL7z0 Fig. 4 K , SST (4 Seychelles 1807'-9&, Fig. 2 i:ZL7zMa%7'-92H6 (4. 5?3f"a'f #fi:T357Si?&&-F5 15 K S # a 7 z G % & Z 6% CTa>%?Ra>k#lgr;rlk, ~ i z . $ - ~ $13~ t r ~ "Po flWME7'-9b3, fihf2 9 & SST &LC&LT 55?Rk#fi:C39 3 9 Bfih?j0 %7z, E l 3 10 % L\5C3TTh 9, S%,Fig. 4 2R5 (4e#a>l@ EB~>B%~R~EB~~:B s h ~ b \ a 1.80a>% r;i]s3&->~~\6. ~jJhLt"-3a>lC%lC3~Z\TL't ; M,~{ZL->T%~L~~>C~: +i, A a -> TL\f2L\, t0-r/ a>lC%lKqL\TC2, l&a>flW. 3. %%2*% 3 . 1 . ?-9 DEEbeibt? 2 $%if&. <. <. ;. r. T. ?. f. i. 2. z. bh6, Seychelles a> "0 7'-9Tb2,@ED% ?Rk#fi~4EhT%9,SST 2kB"P6a>tri&32 ,B\bh7z0 3 fz, New Caledonia a> "0 ?- 9b 3&. %Bf"~7fi:E<, AE%B(4k@+6a>iZi&%. (4E. bdz6, 5 t T,SST (4 Seychelles "0 7%92 k@ L, &: 1 Seychelles "0 7.- 9 (4 New. Fig.. a@a>7'-9(4SSTa>~6%%H@Th~7zo Fig. 5 t Z , Seychelles "0 7-- 9 (4 New Caledonia "0 7.- 92S#a7zG%2%j-0 to-3 a>~&%lba, fihfd:9 B < -& ~ 79% , 3 ~ze#a> l@EJ't-&LTb\T, @E&i&3i~t75t (4fi:T. 35(4$Jl%L7z0. 5. Matching between two coral leaf ''0 data (&year averaging, twice) : samples for New Caledonia and Seychelles. The superposition is arbitrarily carried out in such a manner that the two curves matches each other as far as possible.. Fig. 6 6ZZLi?Db3, aa 4 2 7 - y3X 2 "Be iZS#a7z%%Th 6.aa 42 7 . y 3 xi322 loo +~$!l 12 fihb$!l26 tr@An LT% 9 , Chi3%Fj%0E%~%Bfi:$!2l@Kfd-> 7c Z (4 & %TothI.Z$jJ&LT,"Be &C2$!l1. 3 jJlb$!l0.6 (4%3UFkZ@@LT%9, ''~e a>!%fi&@%% k6 2 %%T h 6.1700 F.hL3-'F 'Be BfiXg< f2 ->I-CL\aa>ia, ~p?y'-i=~Air&<%J&L TL\6. Fig. 6 TIT,~ 9 2 ~ =~Afi:[''Be] -i = 1.6 x104/g $ZEK$fJ&L, aa 4' 2 T . y 3 Xa> 0 fi:[lOBe ]= 1. 8 x104/g tZ3+J&LTL\6fiX, ~f7? y- 5 s-7Aa>@Bi2%F&O%Bfi:@&T@@. 7.-P %i&%. L7~2%kbhTL\5'2 2 28L8j-5(4, ZO%f J&b2%% 2 ,Bhdz6,'tj fi?&K, 1991 %I: Beer c;75,T;L7zx"'rJ&/$41%Tk2, -79~y'-i=--744Z. %I?6 a a 4 2 7 . ~ 3 ~ f i : $ 3 K f i ? ~ Tja>T, L3. i&%. 5. (4 r a g k f i ? ~ \ ~ 5. f2%, aa 4 2Fy 37: (4 "Be &a>?~'fhZC&, fihf2 9 a>lC@a>Thfi:!Z bh,15 %%BT bT(4 --& fiX&<f25, "Bea>&Ffi%#!(4. t%@Bk'ffi:I+ %E::kBrnBL\t(4&%;i_5(4, t~Thi3T IB.@i$Th60 'Be 7-9a>F{tR7Za>SETi3f2 ~ \ tL j <,. ~~i3w~~m~;ti,a~. 3 . 2 . %ZftBS2 %E;%%tBtRakB Fig. 7 IZ,New Caledonia a> ' ' 0 7%-9 2 ''Be =. New Caledonia 7'-9 fi4 *l.';--"pb 1650 Ffihb 1890 %f2B%Ta>fgjraEjT, 6ffi;g-f&i Jx f& ;cj f; k~S#aaalz, ''Be -f"-9 t Z %L\T, &@$ztrH bhakm3 a>@i2, ;kEg BT%l bdz6>aB80 I5?)% Gleisberg 9431LlZ. 7'-9(4 a>;r;f-J&&%-if-,. <. ;r;f-GLTL\a, 694P I L D ~ 9;~L$~-KLT. ~~ 1700. %HE,1800 FME, 1900 FHZlrb3,:R. L\@&filh 5.New Caledonia 0 "0 7'-9lZ%L\.

(6) t o.6. -. ""'"'"'"""""0""'. aa index. - 24. 0.8 -. - 20. 1.0-. -. ; 1.2 -. -. n. 0). \ Tt. 0. T. -. m. 16. -.. 3. 12. 1.4-. -8. 1.6 -. -4. g X. Year AD Fig. 6.. Matching between two solar indices (5-year averaging, twice) : aa The index and ''Be concentration in a Greenland ice core. superposition is arbitrarily carried out in such a manner that the two curves matches each other as far as possible.. T h , Z a>@&ih%lI!%Th 6. "Be 7'-9 id;,1720 -32k.f-6 r k t r @ S L T . m&@&Skar~, 9 < fL-> TL\T, New Caledonia Fig. 7 CL&L\T, to- 3 a>.fe@l-h&,T L 9, @ < %G LTL'fLb\fif,*YPOR$C-hi3hfL 9 6%< -?& L a> l807'-9 kA3 < ThT'4\6fi<,ZOJ&&4% b3k3, fi8~%&bd;~~7'6 9 @L\. %%6h,267 ~ ~ ' z j 5b Th6. ; R t Z , +g#za>~g~c~ir;ilid;.L 5 f s ~ ~ t z i a i z s ~ + f i : h %amta>rf7 ~a,~, &L, ?a>f5%!?9,&< {!XTL\6.Y"'312Ea>T e ~ ~ ~ e a c . : s ~ i trt r ~~f is: a . ~ f i m t ~hid;, ~ 3$$?EL~z''Be ?--9k aa - 4 ~ 5 y 3 ~ a > 2 LT, 17 ~$2Ta>&%fi:{!JTL\6 z k, 18 @ IG@a>Thk wL%fi:hai3~9,%hfsL', $2 2 19 g $ Z @ Gleisberg 9-43'1ba>@fi:fi\fj? 9 e +%6Zi3hfL. Year AD Fig. 7. Matching between 180data for New Caledonia and the concentration of "Be from Greenland (10-year averaging, twice, for both). The superposition is arbitrarily carried out in such a manner that the two curves matches each other during the period of 1650 AD - 1870 AD as far as possible..

(7) 3 . 3 . SST k aa ~ > F ' * Y ~ X C D % G. 3.4. A;Z%~~;I=%$~AE~%%~>P%CDIT{~~. a>%%%LU, Fig. 4 - 6 a>mt%&H L \ - c ~ " F72, ~ SST 2 aa 4' 2 7 ' 9 ~x 2 a>%&BC% 2 Fig. 8 iL%To aa 4 ~ T ' : " ; 1 9 ; i : i ~ & I - f ~ % ~ f i h 0 to3 (1870 q, 1910 %, 1920 q, 1950 q, 1960 q)f i 4 f i h f 2 9 k % 2 7 7 L \ \ 6 2 f2 7L6?2l%I-fbf, &#a>i@l;rJbA--&L, 372 to-3 a>iC@%fiafd 9 @ < --&LTL\6, % L 7 , +l&$ziz%C-fak# a>%@, &% 20 qb~%i-fak#CT)@gi&fihf~ 9 --FkLTL\a. 1870 +I?tE~a>@ga>Thfi:A3 < J&k6 fi:, t h 6 3 0 L 6 , ta>@%a>SST fififf;&i~LkiTL\Zj 6kfi:RlEla>L5Tha0 thb3, Fig.4 bzZL 72 SST 2 Seychelles 01807'-9 CT)??$K?2J&a 2 *ja0 r a > ~ i r % t 3 a ~ j ~ ~ ~t t0% - ~ci ea@ , a> ??h?i% l bd-if";, Fig. 8 a>%J&mb%L9 %-Eb2-> 3 9 L T L \ 6 L 5 T, 1870 qMETa>??hfix%i~ A$L\bC-fTi3f~L\t2 fi43J6. Fig. 8 iL%L\7, 1950 %fish 1960 qi~filb37 a>Thia,k E % @irk43 ~ ~ % ? ~ f i : l f 7f: ; 2f i l L\5L2&%LTL\62%RT6t2%T360 the, ~ E ~ > A ~ ~ R € ~ a. 9I L: ~ v-v LL 3 Y (Hansen, 1997) T B H & d7Ja, A % P 3 f s r 7 P Y I L ~ > ? $ J %t~2Efi:T$6fil%%Ihf6L\, ~. Fig. 8 a>%%filb, kE%Ba>Z!$@a)%@fi4% ~zit=iz&& a g ~ ~ & e t r2, fiv-3 ~ t a i3-w ha. e % $ ~ i i n g ~ a > ~ rtrl"-3%&@2 ir~-3 LTZZ @a>l$&k@?5 t 2 bLdc 9 ?#&f2&3TC3 h6fi4, 90%Ukfi4kE%@a>%@2J&5 t 2 fi: T$ a. Tfdbtj, z@iCEsa%~ba*L\@L\ lO%Th5 k b \ 5 t k izf25. %E, Wk$Za>% ?Rk#a>*ZRBb3, k E % B a > Z @ T h 6 2 L \ 5 a>fi3;?s;%5$$a>E%Th60 Lhb3, Al$?jj%@a> %$fif 25%EB2 L ~ Damon z & Peristykh a>E@ It 9 (1999) 2 A S < R f 6 6 % % T h 6 0 .LlDRlEl 1% @ b fi: Svensmark & Friis-Christensen (1997) izl%kq 7, kl@j%@%@ 2 LTk%%,6El Ba>ZB2Hb\Tb\?5 t 2 t L h 6 . k E % k F l % fiSkE%@a>E@2 L 7 2'a>@@6%Thafih (Ball iunas & Soon, 1995) b3ElJ 2 L 7 It, %,6@ L 5 fdB%&f2@8uiz&+< E @ L 9 %, %El.: kP&%@fi:&%kT Pa>L 5 iZ@L\7L\6 fih2 L \ 5 6 k i L 9 L \ 7 , L 9E g m f 2 8 t g % & + 2 a E @Th6 aa4~~.;,9X~'~Be~lfEa>dcjf2~ @Dm:, &%%i&i~%Ta%@&:Ti&?a 7z@ irB%Tha2 L7%F,e.%t3fdL\2,E.bhao. Fig. 7. -0.6. 1. .. .. 1111111111,111,111,,,,,,~,~,,,~~,,,. aa index. {. Year AD Fig.. 8. A. relation between aa index and SST (5-year averaging, twice). The matching was made from the results of Figs. 4-7, and hence, not arbitrary.. 3 . 5 . !B;lffij@F'-9 I=&if Q*E%%a>%%a>. wl6 33@a>&%5Z@C31443 +ir4$% 6 a>T,''Be %E?.-9a>B2aSfilbk@fi;q%Th6,Fig. 9 ir;i-a>%%&Z?. %@2 LT, 1800 %filha>k gi!l~irnfi:-&~-c% 9 , t " - ~ a > i e g ~ f i l 9~~4 2 < G - - > - ~ L 5\ ~t L r ~ ~ a , i 7 0 0 + 1 ? t ~ a. 9 - 5 z ~ A i ~ % & L 7 c % ? E i f f ; T i 3 b93J&~ 3. 27'2L\L 5 T h a d : , 17 %$Za>l&?E%2 , 18 @?. <. dF!i~A->7a>%lJ&i~6?Ef2%Bi3& %~~JTL\ 5. 3 7 ~ 1500 , +I?tEirB b h 6 6 ~ \ t ~ - fix--3 & L 7 L \ 6 L 5 Th6, thbd;, 3@%i@%%T'~ f i : 1443 ~ Z T H ~ ~ Z EiJn~bL~. r t~2fi: a. >q % ~ t~r f~s - > r ~ 2r ~ 6 6 ..

(8) 1. A date. -1 0.4. Year AD Fig. 9.. A r e l a t i o n between f r e e z i n g d a t e of Lake Suwa and t h e "Be d a t a '. (5-year averaging, twice, a r b i t r a r i l y performed.. f o r both).. The matching was. 1800 F U E a > k @ m % ? R f i ; 4 & f i h 9 7 z @ B i ~ % 5 Z 2 f i ; T $ 5 , &@&ir, SST 2 a a 4 >7'.;13 b ' 7 i & , @%El &%i34&< , &@%/I\$ RA-60 X & k @ T 5 ~ + - 1 p e q % T , rn%2k@L, A r a > ~ ~ a > - - - ~ - hF, h i r & k ; ' j 6%?Ea>3%$15GE PE%BZBa>%%fiI&%[ETTh 6 2 E%LIE, 3 S Z E J W O T ~ ~2 Zi r k a . e a ~ h t i a 2 f i ~ 1 7c. 1443 F i r t h 3 6 $ ~ ~ a > ? ~ % ~ Z @ & % ? E l J Z ; @ 1 ; f i h T h 6 0 T f s b G , %?Efi;4Efi-7~@Biri&, 222 L T H b \ 7 , 1 ° B e YX-9 2 k@ L7z%E, 1500 @%5; 11 A f i 4 1 2 A i z B 9~. t a > @ B i z % ~ f + m i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~a Z I a+5 2 > ,R.;k3ha?iim ~ n ~ 6 m ~ o~ a > z i c ~ i v, a ~= r ~ & im z ~ ~ ~ $ $ ! ~ ~$h6 ~ B fL~ 2, 9 &b\%$J&fi4J&1;.$L7~~ L-c, ?RflIf&@BiZi&?%%fi< 1 Jl fil 1; 2 Jl I z B Z % El 2 ? E M I f i ; i ; 3 : 9 2%9 ThiJdu, +I& 6 f E f i , %?&a> kl ~ n ? $ @ / k a > ~ @ @ ~ f=I&& 6~\~ $ziZ%i?6%?Ek#a>%@iz9b\-c % @ $ f T $ L T i E B i k 2 B 5 2,1800 %3Ta>%t6Bt% 57'-9 ira. 9 q+g0 a i&i3hf2 9 &$$$h5, IB. L, 1800 ~ U ~ a > ? E B ~ :a~>& 5 fs@&%m*?&i3, 4 S % t ! k i ~ A G f 6 2 $ iZ-b'Ti3, r a>%?&Tl3%iEfiX% Lfih9 7zo h 6 Z 2 % h 5 f i x , &%Xa>%R&R62, IS$R Z k , 3lim&qa>?@%~Z&2, $ % i r & i f 5 5 ? R #a>&6?-3l%~~&$< mb), 3 7 Z % R 2 T 5 53%(1945 qfi11;a>&S%?R, @4&%?E,Tt$J% ,fSlr~y'a'J!&kf"pr 2 (Z h 9 T,fib?$ 9 s@7'sR@%. <. a. ?R) 2a>$$KCd;fi>f29 g f i h 9 7 ~ f i 4 , F$L< R 6 2 9 fi4TZ 6 t r I R d 3 h 6 . 43-T L % 3 $ K L-c% C3-T. %?R%zZ@g%?aizg& %P&a>a%!%%a6a&%iGi:%@T6%B "pa T ~ f i c z i a ,~ i z + g a > & ~ f i ; ! ~ z \ g ~2; ~ i , z , !%%#fi;i&9 3 9 L f i ? b \ Z 2 h l b , A%&?$A@ b;alJ7Z0 R ; ~ ~ / ~ i r i AP8a>%@fif+%tr d;, CAI% 9 A h 1; h - c L \ f d b \ (I?@, 1999), +@, k B a > % S - O R 4. %% @ % 9 fi;i&-> 3 9 ThiJdu, %%, A @ R % Y . I L ~ > + ~ f t z a > 5 ~ ~ ~ a i z 3 1 -@~i E6% ~ & \ ~% i~Z f ~6 $'6 % $ + f ~ b \ 7 ? 55 B2%h@%%&R@% 6 T z f i i z , %?EltBB2A P&%@tE@%k@ Lfz0 %?El%@& 2 L-cid;, 8JIBQl"0 7 - 3 1 f i ~ ~ F $ T h 3 7 ~ 0Riz, 53%3i31 i k l % ~ 7 ~ a > " B e Y ' - - ~ ~ L7z.t ~ ~ % 2S ~ a>F'-3l%$rJ2Hb\-ck@'if-a 2 t ~ 9h 1650 2, ic 4 X$%!%?4!?6%%EQl Juerg Beer Bf-iz F3TB6 t 2 f i ; T S 7 z o A P B g @ a > E g 2 L-c L 3To id;, %&&a> k 5 f~zt!k!%%%a>AS b%ETCd; fs , A % a % % a a > i & 5 % - a > % @ & E @ s T % %**% % B l l Z S k T h 6 a a 4 ~ - 7 ' ~ 3 i~ k% t :~.7 ' + B a l l i u n a s , S. and W. Soon, 1995. Are Czt%@$ h-ic b \ 5%%!%& %a> FliQ# " ~ fi489A e v a r i a t i o n s i n the l e n g t h of t h e a c t i v i t y T h < f z , 1650 q f i h b 1900 Ft~i3it'-f 6, Z h 1 ; c y c l e r e l a t e d t o changes i n b r i g h t n e s s i n a>lt%$& 2 $%% 2k@T6 Z 2 tZ L 9 ,1900 Fi3h solar-type s t a r s ? Astrophys. J. , 450: 1;a>%?Ek%CZi3G-f6AP8~&@a>%%&5E@;t 896-901.. miix-esa.. m. r. <. .. ad%$. @am.

(9) Beer, J., et al, 1990. Use of ' O B ~ in polar ice totrace the l l - y e a r c y c l e o f s o l a r a c t i v i t y , Nature, 347: 164-166. Beer, J., F. Joos, Ch. Lukasczyk, W. Mende, J. Rodriguez, U. Siegenthaler and R. Stellmacher, ''Be as an indicator of solar variability and climate, NATO AS1 Series, Vol. I 25, The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate, ed. E. Nesme-Ribes, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 221-233. Briffa, K. R. and T. Osborn, 1999. Seeing the wood from the trees, Science, 284: 926-927. Damon, P. E. & Peristykh, A. N. 1999, "Solar cycle length and 20th century northern hemisphere warming: revisited", Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: 2469 Delmas, R. J., 1992. Environmental information from ice cores, Rev. Geophys., 30: 1-21. Eddy, J. A., 1977. Climate and the changing sun, Climatic Change, 1: 173-190. Evans, M., Fairbanks, R.G., and Rubenstone, J.L., 1998, Kiritimati Coral Isotope Data, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 1998-035. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. (ftp : //f tp. ngdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/coral/) Gorney, D. J., Solar Cycle Effects on the Near-Earth Space Environment, Rev. Geophys., 28 (1990) 315 Hansen, J. et al. , 1997. Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change, J. Geophys. Res. , 102: 25,679-25,720. Kerr, R. , 1997. Greenhouse forecasting still. cloudy, Science, 276: 1040-1042. Lassen, K., & E. Friis-Christensen, 1995. Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestiral climate, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 57: 835-845. ) Plummer, M. A., F. M. Phillips, J. FabrykaMartin, H. J. Turin, P. E. Wigand, and P. Sharma, 1997. Chlorine-36 in fossil rat urine: an archive of cosmogenic nuclide deposition during the past 40,000 years, Science, 277: 538-541. Reid, G. C., 1987. Influence of solar variability on global sea surface temperature, Nature, 329: 142-143. Sonett, C. P., 1991. Long period solarterrestrial variabjlity, Rev. Geophys. , Supplement: 909-914. Svensmark, H. 8 E. Friis-Christensen, 1997. Variationof cosmic ray fluxand global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 59 : 1225-1232. Thompson, L. G., M. E. Davis, E. MosleyThompson, T. A. Sowers, K. A. Henderson, V. S. Zagorodnov. P.-N. Lin, V. N. Mikhalenko, R. K. Campen, J. F. Bolzan, J. Cole-Dai, and B. Francou, 1998. A 25,000-year tropical climate history from Bolivian ice cores, Science, 282: 1858-1864. /?@/L?$Z, 1999.#35$?RFI!lCf!!7@a)% LL\REik~!-%{!%@@a)< YYYY'V 2 P \ @%, 69: 665-669. Rffl%Pi!?, 1977. r%?Ra)BB2 A?a'1a)@!Z!1 I4. &+k..

(10)

Fig.  1.  A  comparison between the sea surface  temperature and the concentration of  CO,
Fig.  3.  Freezing  d a t e  f o r   Lake  Suwa  (Harada,  1977).  The  t h i n   curve  i s   a  5-year  average  (twice)
Fig.  4.  A  r e l a t i o n   between  ASST  (5-year  averaging  ,  twice)  and  180  d a t a   from  S e y c h e l l e s   i s l a n d s   (5-year  averaging,  twice)
Fig.  2  i:ZL7zMa%7'-92H6  (4.  5?3f&#34;a'f  #fi:T3  5  7Si?&amp;&amp;-F5  1  5  K S # a 7 z G % &amp; Z
+4

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