地球温暖化における太陽活動変動の寄与評価
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(2) Z h i L H L T , Damon 2 Peristykh 63, Svensrnark % { t a Eddy o>%%(@JkisEddy, L T , %@%?.2 ; k P g % a z a a I;aHL\'rr8&~%?Rb~Wrt53Tfifi~?f;IEBT ~ ~ ? ? ~ E T ~ @kBY.~-7-3%% ~ % ~ & L ~ , & 5 2 L\%fz%,6BBizWT6?$ LL\&%??j7 %RfiaY/~-Yitd;. AB%,6Bf93azafix%?B 9 T , +@$za%?.@/kizHT6k@%%a%+ &A25%E@ 2 L 7'r (Damon & Peristykh, 1999), T ! B l t = 2 B < @ E T 6 ~ 2 % E t t l L~ ,P B % B a @ a\ 6 i z k B a % % a a z B f i : , &E%@iea@ i a ~ t t ~ t = ~ s a 5~2~LfTcLr \, ~ ~ ~3 J$, a 5 A ' i t d ; z a g ~ 2 ~ ~ L f d b \ , r~7iz%4j'C36%B%?B@/Ca&ra.r-Th6 2 &$E L 7'r (Lassen & Friis-Christensen, 1995: 2 a> h 5 ir, @%$%iiiia>@!t=G~HT 6, I @ l k Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, 1997), E%Bgk#a%G2.;kB%Bzaa%saB %%J! iZ-b\Tltd;\ %%fix~!f!~Tb\fd~\, LbL, r :&%, %l$2aZl&%@iz-b\~a&<a435 ;ZE i 2&iz, 6izkP%aa%%afix%%%iEiz%@T 6%2=z.Ad~%9fi~@%$hT%Z o ,D L 5 fd%fBi@j75 2 2 i3I$i%T& 5 (@@\ 1999), % fz, $ % @ a a - 3 2 L T a k P B z B a % % 2 B @ % 5 22 & 3 \.L !JE@Q5{&€Flbv< ZL I/2 s Y&f75kT%%%b!JfLE%fi~&6 2%k $%*Titd;Za%aize&\ ~ f i & f ~ & ~ T i3h 6 fix, A 9 %gfdAl$2%BEE 2 %?Rit%E a @ H ir A 9 k P g a % @ 2 ~63 f?c3iEBiz?T Year AD iilw-6 : 2 2%&Tzo. -3,1970 1977) 2 # % 2. .. Fig. 1.. A comparison between the sea surface temperature and the concentration of CO,. Data sources are as follows: for the CO, concentration, http://cdiac. esd. ornl. gov/f tp/trends/co2/ lawdome. smoothed.yr20 (Law Dome data) and http ://cdiac. esd. ornl. gov/f tp/ndpOOl/maunaloa. co2 (Mauna Loa) : for SST,http://cdiac. esd.ornl, gov/trends -> temp -> jonescru.. 2 s : WSJtBf kBB"P25%. 2.. @fi%;& &,@b!JfdEl @&A,%?Ei'Z&iETh6 SST 2 , % &~L%~'C~~%~$~%B~T)%@DEET ?~h-%%Br] ZZG~L6$332ij&fixj3b&~6 aa4> T . y 3 ~ (r$L < i3f%%)2 ??EBT6z 2 iLEb\7?, % 5 r,L, % % G z x ~ 9- -YY%fTLK, g%jG!G , z\ Fig. 1 ' TB6 L 5 fL%3Tm%??z2a6z 2 fi5T36 fix, 2. 1.. Secas (shifted) Seychelles. AQI 8 (shifted). New Caledonia. -3.6. I. I. I. I. 1700. 1800. 1900. 2000. 1. Year AD F i g. 2.. Time courses of changes in the 180concentration in coral leaf samples from different points. Data were taken from ftp://ftp. ngdc. noaa,gov/paleo/coral, and were 5-year averaged (twice)..
(3) 6%?Eit@B2LT&kh&<H b \ b h 6 a > i - h , ti8 r h f i : g % r - s ~ g ~ ; t i a ~ ; i ~ i d : t=f-~ Z: ~ T, \~ T *a>+@ZZ@T;tib (@JAG2 B r i f f a & Osborn, 3 6 Et3Ef9jF~7a>a)?Elt@B 2 k%%@Ei4% 2 1 9 9 9 ) ~ ~ 7 5 h ~ % % r b i - hM*a)+%ir , h 97% % M = @ T 6 2 2 t r L 7 ~ ,BYP&izi-h, A%N7's3 Z b 6 a > T B i E $ & \ B , T i b 6 0 37z, Z @ / k @lt=E%a>Mt,YW%tR~3 6 1860 +ZTa>f9j?aEj iZ%b 'T , %?Rit@B2 AFB%BtZ4%2 i3f HKT E % a > % ~ f i f % h R T 6 2 ti8*a>FfiE$!&A/iLf6 62b\55$9%%%$!3T3fdb\, %%, Jones b$ 6 21EZLT, % % t z z 9 - l b % g k T z & l , =f5L'fz%9 1000 F i r R a , & 2 LT%%ZZ@ir k a>%%%&ir LT. S @ d Z i L % t - f 6 R ~ a > Z @ ~ @ 6%?E%lkG3, % i ~1800 +1ta>l$ifif%%BI]Za> k E L 7 z o B % a > k 5 IL, 42H L 7 z A B B @ % B (''Be 7'9 ) a>Mk$fif 1420 %, %?&@ ti. B (New Z @ k 9 hi3hfd 9 iff;< f 2 9 T b \ 6 ( B r i f f a & Osborn, 1999), ?a>Tz a, 2 t T i - h U 7 ; i ~ % . f Caledonia 4W@l%a>180 a)f%jki$fif 1650 qf.2 i & a > R % B % H b ' z k i r LTz, a>?, 1650 +fib b I@lt=E%a>gEi&!J~fif 9f6fih 972 1900 + % 3 T a ) f 9 j ~ ~ 7 2 & @ i r L ~ Z , 2 . 3 . jkR 7 7& k U.'rnBlh%a) 180E@ %?E, k%%B2Wr, E % P H ~ % A / X - T ~ Z &i3&$&b~a>~, ~ 9 f i h a > ~ @ 2 ~ b \ ~ * # i t , f a)?iz.~~;@sik L T ~ U m\r;ma,i-h. tizi it!l (filk C2Delmas, 1992) (Thompson e t a l . , B @ @ 6 k 5 i r T 6 k b\ 5 %?&%Mb\'f~, %?BE g t r q b \ - c i - h . 1860 +i311;%&3~a, SST ZZ@& 1998) CLS~\T%%E $ h 7 z j k % 3 7q D . 180 fd P DM12YPTib 6, I Z I ~ % ~ S % ? E ~ ~ @ L-TB,~ 4W%l & +?5 % D 2BR L T ? k W h b ~ E i E 2 ? 7 b \ E , i z 2 h k & 5 %a>%BibT%rR72fi&izBC23%Pa>M12YPfifib6, %%++@-DB ! Ii_n&a> k 5 f6%?@ l% l f; k U l k Y M B % i ~ ; t j ' b \ T , FJiCYP k * t ~ . ? R E % a > E i E 2 ? 7 5 k b \ 5 +IIb3Ql%97zo ?$%irA 6%F#fif@2 6fibZ)i~,. 2hba>X+3+ k E % 4 % t ~ q b \ T C - h , %%BqSZZ@T;ti6 aa 4 Y?.:, 3 x % & - @ 2 L,H & ~ Z af?i-tfi&tr T~ a > ~ i i z # ~ i - h % ? ~ i r ~ r lL "rw a , mmBTrA, Sr/Ca k$&k'a B %SE?EESST % E R 3 P 6 2 f9jF~7??@if L 7zo %?Eit@B, k%%BE@*i:, s h a d : , 180 B W - ~ L SST ~ L ~ T K L T L G ~ % % i r T % l t : ( 3 z k L-c, 5 5;tiab\i-h l o F%@ (Evans e t a l . , 1998), Z& k~6?'--9C-h, W$J% 2 B) L T H b \ ' f z i 3 f , S h f ~ L T k @ . t %%%j"E NOAA -I?@ ' -fkE@k$%% i 9 5' -CDIAC ;3+ ; 5 ~ w l tL = ~Z, 7"PiLk +kg/Ca>~Z@i3f429--+.;, bT 2 M s b T b \ T i $ b \ g b \ , r 2 T i & , 2h El a?' 2.2. %;EL~tBE 9 %l%H Lfz (@$) , Fig. 2 iL, $C 3n b h r b \ a ct; 5 tr, F&%BqSirk 6%?E %l%fi>b%% b h ' f z l80 gB7- 3r 2%T0 a>EZ@i-h 1860 %%fihbP$3 9 , =f-hU$Ja>%?g i 3 % ? R l t @ B i L L El %t+f2b\, Ef9jr~7ir%b-f. <. +nit&. <. <. am+ram. %m. v. v. v,. -. <. e!%&it&a>ffW. $'a. 6o. r. 1400. 1500. 1600. 1700. 1800. 1900. 2000. Year AD Fig. 3.. Freezing d a t e f o r Lake Suwa (Harada, 1977). a 5-year average (twice).. The t h i n curve i s. 2.4. %~fi~~CO;~%~i!$@. Fig. 3 1 ~ 7 L 6 ~J .E5 i r , 1443 q f i h h 1975 +;.k. B $ t r % V 6 % ? E I % @ B k L T J - Z - ~f d h a> t ~ $ , 3a>rg%~~&fi4 ~ (R ~ 1 ,1977),. wmwTt%a>B< > a2z3~ o?eF % !%<. a. a. T,. 2, % !i3it'&. ~ i r ~ %2@%a) q , 1.1-fi~~~a$k~ ?jz~ ~ \ a ,.
(4) % I3 A $ F L ' 1 : 3 t3%*@B, i!?EL\1: 3 b3tEE6B Th6, Fig. 3 a> d a t e IEG3, 1 Jl 1 I3 ??E@ir. i 2 i 2 E k f i j T 6 a>T@*BE@ 2 L T %Ebh 6i3', kEa>@%E@Ja>@E1:L T % G H T & 6 0 L T , &%@lFJEl J?L'd12Brn@%T% L, EL\ %ir, A%+a>?#$@BPa'Jd4 1 +@ET&6f:&i~, ?%&t&iEa>B%T&L7z%~T&6, %7c, %I% 14C izk@-T5 kT-3 k6Pa'J&7'1'6/n\@Efi:&~\o %&D?%&t3, @%a)@% BL\ El (2 A 1 3 I3 + d a t e = d % f f T & b , Z ZTl3, J. Beer t $ k i r L 9 E %$ht,7 9 -Y?Y F a > % R 3 7 a ) % 6 i ~ k 43 L 9 'b -I-% iriEa)li$(fiJ X 1350) 284 9 3 T 9$9bh7: '"Be YX-31 (1420 +-1980 +)2HL\7z0 7zo Fig. 3 bz t3, %Y'- 31 1: 1: % ir, 5 +F@a> Beer b Cd;%ir, '"Be $$$E&ikd< 18 @$El%a)i&l% FfBiwzL-cItia. ~ B1:m:a>~m,s~-rr. D f i 4 , *BE'JirWT6g%a @ @ c a ~ ~ ~72,& ~ t i %tE@4L1: & < H K L T L \ 6 Z 1: ? ? % L T L \ 6 (Beer e t a l . , 1994), a a 4 YTTy3 Xb3, M@%a>@~Cd~b@ftrl$$h. 2.5. AMj%%B+$ k%%@Ja>%E%@bE%$$hT37zoReid (1987) i~ k 9 T % A $h7:k%%,6%*, %%a>. 6 , %%a%%!@ 0@L\%@T&6 (Gorney, 1990), kEa>@%E@Jit,f3&< 7'26 2 , M l % i ~ 3 j. k%sJ&BBt3kEa&a>lT79-31-Th6 B-T6kEBa>3&BfiX@L, k%Rizk::6M@% 6, M%-a>;k%g@Ja>%%&sTEt%%hb, a>f&%fi$fr3 < f1'66, ?a>@B?? n T ( 3 - 1 f X 7 I'2%&?1'6% a)id:, @rn?@@d<A%&% 1:@f%-T -1 ??%fek L T & L7ca>$ a a 4 > 7 ' . ; , 3 X T 6: kiLL1tiT!kS::6 14C (fijk-ba*Sonett, 1991). h a o k ~ @ % % @ J $ A 3 b \ 1 a: a 4 > 7 ' y 3 2. t a A 5 < aaa>T,~ ~ c T ; ~ ? @ @ B ~ ~ c z z + !k&B1:t32,!@Ra>~i%1: f ~ 5a a, 4 ~ 7 . 3~ y a>5Z&C3 1868 qi31b Li317'1'6L\a>T, Z h L 9 3 &iz~L\Tr310BeY'-Pir@@Z$@6 Z 1: CL L7z0. '"Be (Beer e t a l . , 1990), 36C1 (Plummer e t a l . , 1997) 7'1'6 F a l 4 l C W ~ 6. h F@%13k%Bir L 9 ~%%nimc-t'b;a7Ja DT, T @ @ $ m r a k E. a>@%%%1:9@R-T5, @ 9 T , Z h b D R l C k % t m % a a > t m - c i m O m*fs Fir @ 9 33h-f~ 14C fi?kPBg@JQZ@LTL\6Z 1: %k? 13, Eddy(1977) i r k 9 @%&hi%, 1650 qiS1b 1700 +% T@ZL\7:kPJ$E%a)$L?#$#@J ir, ? a > % R Z T h 6 Maunder a>&??ZLT?? ~ 9 ' - i = ? A k & & L, zir, .La>fgjaaEf753u .;,lTir;t;'636/J\ikBb~%KLTL\6 Z 1: ??E % L7z0 L151 L, 14C b3A%qa>?+$3?6'@Pa'J75zEL\a>. #ma,. 2.6.. >S-+Y. I'. bk\Ga)7-9IfRf+. 1) Ii!%?It=!??%~@ t3, h t t p : / / c d i a c . esd. o r n l . gov/ftp/trends/co2/1awdome. smoothed. yr20 Y (Law Dome 20 q F ? R i k CO, 7.- 31) $3 L I h t t p ://cdiac. esd. o r n l . gov/ftp/ndpOOl/maunaloa. co2 (79'f u 7 CLI a>~?@lkE%7'- 31 ) i 5 h. a$+ L 7zo. T,~ ~ ~ E I L ~ ~ F 5 ~, w, R I 14c L ~ ~2 ) SST T Lid: ~, h t t p : //cdiac. esd. o r n l . gov/trends -> temp -> jonescru 31 h a $ +L7zo BBa>lkb\It=;f;R$3a>Rf%iz L 9 %%+a> 14c2s Bbj 1;h'fz7zbj, a+a>l4c 5Z@C3kE2Elt=a>E 3) 4fft Z!!i @ 0 180 7. - 31 t& , f t p : / / f t p . ngdc. noaa. gov/paleo/coral i31 1;B$+L 7zo h%k L T T B % T h 6 , '"Be a>@@t3, l@*B-b~. A SST. IIIII,IUHIIIIItUI,YIIIIII. 4. I. .-1'840 1860. ,. l. 1880. ,. '8 0. s. l. .. 1900. l. r. l. ,. 1920 1940. l. ,. l. .. 1960 1980 2000. Year AD Fig. 4.. A r e l a t i o n between ASST (5-year averaging , twice) and 180 d a t a from S e y c h e l l e s i s l a n d s (5-year averaging, twice). The s u p e r p o s i t i o n i s a r b i t r a r i l y c a r r i e d o u t i n such a manner t h a t t h e two curves matches each other a s f a r a s possible..
(5) Caledonia "0 5- 9&kE@$jEj5t (4 iZL7z0 Fig. 4 K , SST (4 Seychelles 1807'-9&, Fig. 2 i:ZL7zMa%7'-92H6 (4. 5?3f"a'f #fi:T357Si?&&-F5 15 K S # a 7 z G % & Z 6% CTa>%?Ra>k#lgr;rlk, ~ i z . $ - ~ $13~ t r ~ "Po flWME7'-9b3, fihf2 9 & SST &LC< 55?Rk#fi:C39 3 9 Bfih?j0 %7z, E l 3 10 % L\5C3TTh 9, S%,Fig. 4 2R5 (4e#a>l@ EB~>B%~R~EB~~:B s h ~ b \ a 1.80a>% r;i]s3&->~~\6. ~jJhLt"-3a>lC%lC3~Z\TL't ; M,~{ZL->T%~L~~>C~: +i, A a -> TL\f2L\, t0-r/ a>lC%lKqL\TC2, l&a>flW. 3. %%2*% 3 . 1 . ?-9 DEEbeibt? 2 $%if&. <. <. ;. r. T. ?. f. i. 2. z. bh6, Seychelles a> "0 7'-9Tb2,@ED% ?Rk#fi~4EhT%9,SST 2kB"P6a>tri&32 ,B\bh7z0 3 fz, New Caledonia a> "0 ?- 9b 3&. %Bf"~7fi:E<, AE%B(4k@+6a>iZi&%. (4E. bdz6, 5 t T,SST (4 Seychelles "0 7%92 k@ L, &: 1 Seychelles "0 7.- 9 (4 New. Fig.. a@a>7'-9(4SSTa>~6%%H@Th~7zo Fig. 5 t Z , Seychelles "0 7-- 9 (4 New Caledonia "0 7.- 92S#a7zG%2%j-0 to-3 a>~&%lba, fihfd:9 B < -& ~ 79% , 3 ~ze#a> l@EJ't-<b\T, @E&i&3i~t75t (4fi:T. 35(4$Jl%L7z0. 5. Matching between two coral leaf ''0 data (&year averaging, twice) : samples for New Caledonia and Seychelles. The superposition is arbitrarily carried out in such a manner that the two curves matches each other as far as possible.. Fig. 6 6ZZLi?Db3, aa 4 2 7 - y3X 2 "Be iZS#a7z%%Th 6.aa 42 7 . y 3 xi322 loo +~$!l 12 fihb$!l26 tr@An LT% 9 , Chi3%Fj%0E%~%Bfi:$!2l@Kfd-> 7c Z (4 & %TothI.Z$jJ<,"Be &C2$!l1. 3 jJlb$!l0.6 (4%3UFkZ@@LT%9, ''~e a>!%fi&@%% k6 2 %%T h 6.1700 F.hL3-'F 'Be BfiXg< f2 ->I-CL\aa>ia, ~p?y'-i=~Air&<%J&L TL\6. Fig. 6 TIT,~ 9 2 ~ =~Afi:[''Be] -i = 1.6 x104/g $ZEK$fJ&L, aa 4' 2 T . y 3 Xa> 0 fi:[lOBe ]= 1. 8 x104/g tZ3+J<L\6fiX, ~f7? y- 5 s-7Aa>@Bi2%F&O%Bfi:@&T@@. 7.-P %i&%. L7~2%kbhTL\5'2 2 28L8j-5(4, ZO%f J&b2%% 2 ,Bhdz6,'tj fi?&K, 1991 %I: Beer c;75,T;L7zx"'rJ&/$41%Tk2, -79~y'-i=--744Z. %I?6 a a 4 2 7 . ~ 3 ~ f i : $ 3 K f i ? ~ Tja>T, L3. i&%. 5. (4 r a g k f i ? ~ \ ~ 5. f2%, aa 4 2Fy 37: (4 "Be &a>?~'fhZC&, fihf2 9 a>lC@a>Thfi:!Z bh,15 %%BT bT(4 --& fiX&<f25, "Bea>&Ffi%#!(4. t%@Bk'ffi:I+ %E::kBrnBL\t(4&%;i_5(4, t~Thi3T IB.@i$Th60 'Be 7-9a>F{tR7Za>SETi3f2 ~ \ tL j <,. ~~i3w~~m~;ti,a~. 3 . 2 . %ZftBS2 %E;%%tBtRakB Fig. 7 IZ,New Caledonia a> ' ' 0 7%-9 2 ''Be =. New Caledonia 7'-9 fi4 *l.';--"pb 1650 Ffihb 1890 %f2B%Ta>fgjraEjT, 6ffi;g-f&i Jx f& ;cj f; k~S#aaalz, ''Be -f"-9 t Z %L\T, &@$ztrH bhakm3 a>@i2, ;kEg BT%l bdz6>aB80 I5?)% Gleisberg 9431LlZ. 7'-9(4 a>;r;f-J&&%-if-,. <. ;r;f-GLTL\a, 694P I L D ~ 9;~L$~-KLT. ~~ 1700. %HE,1800 FME, 1900 FHZlrb3,:R. L\@&filh 5.New Caledonia 0 "0 7'-9lZ%L\.
(6) t o.6. -. ""'"'"'"""""0""'. aa index. - 24. 0.8 -. - 20. 1.0-. -. ; 1.2 -. -. n. 0). \ Tt. 0. T. -. m. 16. -.. 3. 12. 1.4-. -8. 1.6 -. -4. g X. Year AD Fig. 6.. Matching between two solar indices (5-year averaging, twice) : aa The index and ''Be concentration in a Greenland ice core. superposition is arbitrarily carried out in such a manner that the two curves matches each other as far as possible.. T h , Z a>@&ih%lI!%Th 6. "Be 7'-9 id;,1720 -32k.f-6 r k t r @ S L T . m&@&Skar~, 9 < fL-> TL\T, New Caledonia Fig. 7 CL&L\T, to- 3 a>.fe@l-h&,T L 9, @ < %G LTL'fLb\fif,*YPOR$C-hi3hfL 9 6%< -?& L a> l807'-9 kA3 < ThT'4\6fi<,ZOJ&&4% b3k3, fi8~%&bd;~~7'6 9 @L\. %%6h,267 ~ ~ ' z j 5b Th6. ; R t Z , +g#za>~g~c~ir;ilid;.L 5 f s ~ ~ t z i a i z s ~ + f i : h %amta>rf7 ~a,~, &L, ?a>f5%!?9,&< {!XTL\6.Y"'312Ea>T e ~ ~ ~ e a c . : s ~ i trt r ~~f is: a . ~ f i m t ~hid;, ~ 3$$?EL~z''Be ?--9k aa - 4 ~ 5 y 3 ~ a > 2 LT, 17 ~$2Ta>&%fi:{!JTL\6 z k, 18 @ IG@a>Thk wL%fi:hai3~9,%hfsL', $2 2 19 g $ Z @ Gleisberg 9-43'1ba>@fi:fi\fj? 9 e +%6Zi3hfL. Year AD Fig. 7. Matching between 180data for New Caledonia and the concentration of "Be from Greenland (10-year averaging, twice, for both). The superposition is arbitrarily carried out in such a manner that the two curves matches each other during the period of 1650 AD - 1870 AD as far as possible..
(7) 3 . 3 . SST k aa ~ > F ' * Y ~ X C D % G. 3.4. A;Z%~~;I=%$~AE~%%~>P%CDIT{~~. a>%%%LU, Fig. 4 - 6 a>mt%&H L \ - c ~ " F72, ~ SST 2 aa 4' 2 7 ' 9 ~x 2 a>%&BC% 2 Fig. 8 iL%To aa 4 ~ T ' : " ; 1 9 ; i : i ~ & I - f ~ % ~ f i h 0 to3 (1870 q, 1910 %, 1920 q, 1950 q, 1960 q)f i 4 f i h f 2 9 k % 2 7 7 L \ \ 6 2 f2 7L6?2l%I-fbf, &#a>i@l;rJbA--&L, 372 to-3 a>iC@%fiafd 9 @ < --<L\6, % L 7 , +l&$ziz%C-fak# a>%@, &% 20 qb~%i-fak#CT)@gi&fihf~ 9 --FkLTL\a. 1870 +I?tE~a>@ga>Thfi:A3 < J&k6 fi:, t h 6 3 0 L 6 , ta>@%a>SST fififf;&i~LkiTL\Zj 6kfi:RlEla>L5Tha0 thb3, Fig.4 bzZL 72 SST 2 Seychelles 01807'-9 CT)??$K?2J&a 2 *ja0 r a > ~ i r % t 3 a ~ j ~ ~ ~t t0% - ~ci ea@ , a> ??h?i% l bd-if";, Fig. 8 a>%J&mb%L9 %-Eb2-> 3 9 L T L \ 6 L 5 T, 1870 qMETa>??hfix%i~ A$L\bC-fTi3f~L\t2 fi43J6. Fig. 8 iL%L\7, 1950 %fish 1960 qi~filb37 a>Thia,k E % @irk43 ~ ~ % ? ~ f i : l f 7f: ; 2f i l L\5L2&%LTL\62%RT6t2%T360 the, ~ E ~ > A ~ ~ R € ~ a. 9I L: ~ v-v LL 3 Y (Hansen, 1997) T B H & d7Ja, A % P 3 f s r 7 P Y I L ~ > ? $ J %t~2Efi:T$6fil%%Ihf6L\, ~. Fig. 8 a>%%filb, kE%Ba>Z!$@a)%@fi4% ~zit=iz&& a g ~ ~ & e t r2, fiv-3 ~ t a i3-w ha. e % $ ~ i i n g ~ a > ~ rtrl"-3%&@2 ir~-3 LTZZ @a>l$&k@?5 t 2 bLdc 9 ?#&f2&3TC3 h6fi4, 90%Ukfi4kE%@a>%@2J&5 t 2 fi: T$ a. Tfdbtj, z@iCEsa%~ba*L\@L\ lO%Th5 k b \ 5 t k izf25. %E, Wk$Za>% ?Rk#a>*ZRBb3, k E % B a > Z @ T h 6 2 L \ 5 a>fi3;?s;%5$$a>E%Th60 Lhb3, Al$?jj%@a> %$fif 25%EB2 L ~ Damon z & Peristykh a>E@ It 9 (1999) 2 A S < R f 6 6 % % T h 6 0 .LlDRlEl 1% @ b fi: Svensmark & Friis-Christensen (1997) izl%kq 7, kl@j%@%@ 2 LTk%%,6El Ba>ZB2Hb\Tb\?5 t 2 t L h 6 . k E % k F l % fiSkE%@a>E@2 L 7 2'a>@@6%Thafih (Ball iunas & Soon, 1995) b3ElJ 2 L 7 It, %,6@ L 5 fdB%&f2@8uiz&+< E @ L 9 %, %El.: kP&%@fi:&%kT Pa>L 5 iZ@L\7L\6 fih2 L \ 5 6 k i L 9 L \ 7 , L 9E g m f 2 8 t g % & + 2 a E @Th6 aa4~~.;,9X~'~Be~lfEa>dcjf2~ @Dm:, &%%i&i~%Ta%@&:Ti&?a 7z@ irB%Tha2 L7%F,e.%t3fdL\2,E.bhao. Fig. 7. -0.6. 1. .. .. 1111111111,111,111,,,,,,~,~,,,~~,,,. aa index. {. Year AD Fig.. 8. A. relation between aa index and SST (5-year averaging, twice). The matching was made from the results of Figs. 4-7, and hence, not arbitrary.. 3 . 5 . !B;lffij@F'-9 I=&if Q*E%%a>%%a>. wl6 33@a>&%5Z@C31443 +ir4$% 6 a>T,''Be %E?.-9a>B2aSfilbk@fi;q%Th6,Fig. 9 ir;i-a>%%&Z?. %@2 LT, 1800 %filha>k gi!l~irnfi:-&~-c% 9 , t " - ~ a > i e g ~ f i l 9~~4 2 < G - - > - ~ L 5\ ~t L r ~ ~ a , i 7 0 0 + 1 ? t ~ a. 9 - 5 z ~ A i ~ % & L 7 c % ? E i f f ; T i 3 b93J&~ 3. 27'2L\L 5 T h a d : , 17 %$Za>l&?E%2 , 18 @?. <. dF!i~A->7a>%lJ&i~6?Ef2%Bi3& %~~JTL\ 5. 3 7 ~ 1500 , +I?tEirB b h 6 6 ~ \ t ~ - fix--3 & L 7 L \ 6 L 5 Th6, thbd;, 3@%i@%%T'~ f i : 1443 ~ Z T H ~ ~ Z EiJn~bL~. r t~2fi: a. >q % ~ t~r f~s - > r ~ 2r ~ 6 6 ..
(8) 1. A date. -1 0.4. Year AD Fig. 9.. A r e l a t i o n between f r e e z i n g d a t e of Lake Suwa and t h e "Be d a t a '. (5-year averaging, twice, a r b i t r a r i l y performed.. f o r both).. The matching was. 1800 F U E a > k @ m % ? R f i ; 4 & f i h 9 7 z @ B i ~ % 5 Z 2 f i ; T $ 5 , &@&ir, SST 2 a a 4 >7'.;13 b ' 7 i & , @%El &%i34&< , &@%/I\$ RA-60 X & k @ T 5 ~ + - 1 p e q % T , rn%2k@L, A r a > ~ ~ a > - - - ~ - hF, h i r & k ; ' j 6%?Ea>3%$15GE PE%BZBa>%%fiI&%[ETTh 6 2 E%LIE, 3 S Z E J W O T ~ ~2 Zi r k a . e a ~ h t i a 2 f i ~ 1 7c. 1443 F i r t h 3 6 $ ~ ~ a > ? ~ % ~ Z @ & % ? E l J Z ; @ 1 ; f i h T h 6 0 T f s b G , %?Efi;4Efi-7~@Biri&, 222 L T H b \ 7 , 1 ° B e YX-9 2 k@ L7z%E, 1500 @%5; 11 A f i 4 1 2 A i z B 9~. t a > @ B i z % ~ f + m i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~a Z I a+5 2 > ,R.;k3ha?iim ~ n ~ 6 m ~ o~ a > z i c ~ i v, a ~= r ~ & im z ~ ~ ~ $ $ ! ~ ~$h6 ~ B fL~ 2, 9 &b\%$J&fi4J&1;.$L7~~ L-c, ?RflIf&@BiZi&?%%fi< 1 Jl fil 1; 2 Jl I z B Z % El 2 ? E M I f i ; i ; 3 : 9 2%9 ThiJdu, +I& 6 f E f i , %?&a> kl ~ n ? $ @ / k a > ~ @ @ ~ f=I&& 6~\~ $ziZ%i?6%?Ek#a>%@iz9b\-c % @ $ f T $ L T i E B i k 2 B 5 2,1800 %3Ta>%t6Bt% 57'-9 ira. 9 q+g0 a i&i3hf2 9 &$$$h5, IB. L, 1800 ~ U ~ a > ? E B ~ :a~>& 5 fs@&%m*?&i3, 4 S % t ! k i ~ A G f 6 2 $ iZ-b'Ti3, r a>%?&Tl3%iEfiX% Lfih9 7zo h 6 Z 2 % h 5 f i x , &%Xa>%R&R62, IS$R Z k , 3lim&qa>?@%~Z&2, $ % i r & i f 5 5 ? R #a>&6?-3l%~~&$< mb), 3 7 Z % R 2 T 5 53%(1945 qfi11;a>&S%?R, @4&%?E,Tt$J% ,fSlr~y'a'J!&kf"pr 2 (Z h 9 T,fib?$ 9 s@7'sR@%. <. a. ?R) 2a>$$KCd;fi>f29 g f i h 9 7 ~ f i 4 , F$L< R 6 2 9 fi4TZ 6 t r I R d 3 h 6 . 43-T L % 3 $ K L-c% C3-T. %?R%zZ@g%?aizg& %P&a>a%!%%a6a&%iGi:%@T6%B "pa T ~ f i c z i a ,~ i z + g a > & ~ f i ; ! ~ z \ g ~2; ~ i , z , !%%#fi;i&9 3 9 L f i ? b \ Z 2 h l b , A%&?$A@ b;alJ7Z0 R ; ~ ~ / ~ i r i AP8a>%@fif+%tr d;, CAI% 9 A h 1; h - c L \ f d b \ (I?@, 1999), +@, k B a > % S - O R 4. %% @ % 9 fi;i&-> 3 9 ThiJdu, %%, A @ R % Y . I L ~ > + ~ f t z a > 5 ~ ~ ~ a i z 3 1 -@~i E6% ~ & \ ~% i~Z f ~6 $'6 % $ + f ~ b \ 7 ? 55 B2%h@%%&R@% 6 T z f i i z , %?EltBB2A P&%@tE@%k@ Lfz0 %?El%@& 2 L-cid;, 8JIBQl"0 7 - 3 1 f i ~ ~ F $ T h 3 7 ~ 0Riz, 53%3i31 i k l % ~ 7 ~ a > " B e Y ' - - ~ ~ L7z.t ~ ~ % 2S ~ a>F'-3l%$rJ2Hb\-ck@'if-a 2 t ~ 9h 1650 2, ic 4 X$%!%?4!?6%%EQl Juerg Beer Bf-iz F3TB6 t 2 f i ; T S 7 z o A P B g @ a > E g 2 L-c L 3To id;, %&&a> k 5 f~zt!k!%%%a>AS b%ETCd; fs , A % a % % a a > i & 5 % - a > % @ & E @ s T % %**% % B l l Z S k T h 6 a a 4 ~ - 7 ' ~ 3 i~ k% t :~.7 ' + B a l l i u n a s , S. and W. Soon, 1995. Are Czt%@$ h-ic b \ 5%%!%& %a> FliQ# " ~ fi489A e v a r i a t i o n s i n the l e n g t h of t h e a c t i v i t y T h < f z , 1650 q f i h b 1900 Ft~i3it'-f 6, Z h 1 ; c y c l e r e l a t e d t o changes i n b r i g h t n e s s i n a>lt%$& 2 $%% 2k@T6 Z 2 tZ L 9 ,1900 Fi3h solar-type s t a r s ? Astrophys. J. , 450: 1;a>%?Ek%CZi3G-f6AP8~&@a>%%&5E@;t 896-901.. miix-esa.. m. r. <. .. ad%$. @am.
(9) Beer, J., et al, 1990. Use of ' O B ~ in polar ice totrace the l l - y e a r c y c l e o f s o l a r a c t i v i t y , Nature, 347: 164-166. Beer, J., F. Joos, Ch. Lukasczyk, W. Mende, J. Rodriguez, U. Siegenthaler and R. Stellmacher, ''Be as an indicator of solar variability and climate, NATO AS1 Series, Vol. I 25, The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate, ed. E. Nesme-Ribes, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 221-233. Briffa, K. R. and T. Osborn, 1999. Seeing the wood from the trees, Science, 284: 926-927. Damon, P. E. & Peristykh, A. N. 1999, "Solar cycle length and 20th century northern hemisphere warming: revisited", Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: 2469 Delmas, R. J., 1992. Environmental information from ice cores, Rev. Geophys., 30: 1-21. Eddy, J. A., 1977. Climate and the changing sun, Climatic Change, 1: 173-190. Evans, M., Fairbanks, R.G., and Rubenstone, J.L., 1998, Kiritimati Coral Isotope Data, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 1998-035. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. (ftp : //f tp. ngdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/coral/) Gorney, D. J., Solar Cycle Effects on the Near-Earth Space Environment, Rev. Geophys., 28 (1990) 315 Hansen, J. et al. , 1997. Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change, J. Geophys. Res. , 102: 25,679-25,720. Kerr, R. , 1997. Greenhouse forecasting still. cloudy, Science, 276: 1040-1042. Lassen, K., & E. Friis-Christensen, 1995. Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestiral climate, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 57: 835-845. ) Plummer, M. A., F. M. Phillips, J. FabrykaMartin, H. J. Turin, P. E. Wigand, and P. Sharma, 1997. Chlorine-36 in fossil rat urine: an archive of cosmogenic nuclide deposition during the past 40,000 years, Science, 277: 538-541. Reid, G. C., 1987. Influence of solar variability on global sea surface temperature, Nature, 329: 142-143. Sonett, C. P., 1991. Long period solarterrestrial variabjlity, Rev. Geophys. , Supplement: 909-914. Svensmark, H. 8 E. Friis-Christensen, 1997. Variationof cosmic ray fluxand global cloud coverage - a missing link in solar-climate relationships, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 59 : 1225-1232. Thompson, L. G., M. E. Davis, E. MosleyThompson, T. A. Sowers, K. A. Henderson, V. S. Zagorodnov. P.-N. Lin, V. N. Mikhalenko, R. K. Campen, J. F. Bolzan, J. Cole-Dai, and B. Francou, 1998. A 25,000-year tropical climate history from Bolivian ice cores, Science, 282: 1858-1864. /?@/L?$Z, 1999.#35$?RFI!lCf!!7@a)% LL\REik~!-%{!%@@a)< YYYY'V 2 P \ @%, 69: 665-669. Rffl%Pi!?, 1977. r%?Ra)BB2 A?a'1a)@!Z!1 I4. &+k..
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