ㄽᩥ Ἑᕝᢏ⾡ㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨20ᕳ㸪2014ᖺ6᭶
ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ⌧ᴗ⏝ὥỈண ᡭἲࡢᨵⰋ
IMPROVING FLOOD PREDICTION TECHNIQUES FOR RIVER MANAGEMENT BY CONSIDERING THE BASIN STORAGE CAPACITY
⮻㇂⚽
1࣭୰ὠᕝㄔ
2࣭ᯇᒸ┤ᇶ
3Tomohide USUTANI, Makoto NAKATSUGAWA and Naoki MATSUOKA
1ṇဨ ༤ኈ㸦ᕤᏛ㸧 ୍⯡㈈ᅋἲே ᪥ᮏẼ㇟༠ ᾏ㐨ᨭ♫ (ࠛ064-8555 ᮐᖠᕷ୰ኸ༊4᮲す23┠) 2ṇဨ ༤ኈ㸦ᕤᏛ㸧 ᐊ⹒ᕤᴗᏛᩍᤵ Ꮫ㝔ᕤᏛ◊✲⛉ (ࠛ050-8585 ᐊ⹒ᕷỈඖ⏫27-1)
3㠀ဨ ୍⯡㈈ᅋἲே ᪥ᮏẼ㇟༠ ᾏ㐨ᨭ♫ (ࠛ064-8555 ᮐᖠᕷ୰ኸ༊4᮲す23┠)
The model parameters for flood prediction currently used by river management have been established based on the relationship between precipitation and runoff for only a few specific cases. The prediction accuracy can be low when the data of cases that differ from the specific cases used for parameter-setting are applied, even when the subject cases are from the same basin as the specific cases.
In this report, to improve the flood prediction accuracy of river management, a technique to calculate the runoff rate corresponding to the basin storage capacity, which represents the wetness/dryness of the basin, was introduced by quantifying the basin storage capacity. By using the newly developed technique, reproduction of hydrographs and simulations of flood prediction were done. The technique was found to be effective in stably reproducing the hydrographs and in reducing prediction errors compared with the currently used technique in which the runoff rate is fixed.
Key Words : basin storage capacity, flood prediction, long-term hydrologic process, runoff rate, storage routing model
ࡣࡌࡵ
ὥỈண ⢭ᗘࢆᕥྑࡍࡿせᅉࡋ࡚㸪ึᮇ್⏝࠸ࡽ
ࢀࡿほ ሗྵࡲࢀࡿほ ㄗᕪ㸪ὶฟィ⟬ࣔࢹࣝࡢ⢭
ᗘ㛵ࢃࡿࢩࢫࢸ࣒ㄗᕪࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡉࡽࡣ㸪ண 㞵㔞
ྵࡲࢀࡿㄗᕪ㸪ࣔࢹࣝィ⟬ࢆὶ㔞࣮࣋ࢫ࡛⾜࠺ሙྜࡣ H-Qኚࡶ࡞࠺ㄗᕪ࡞ࡶຍࢃࡾ㸪⢭ᗘྥୖࢆ┠ᣦ ࡍୖ࡛ࡑࢀࡽࡢ࠸ࡎࢀࡶ㑊ࡅ࡚ࡣ㏻ࢀ࡞࠸ㄢ㢟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬 ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ㄗᕪࢆࣜࣝࢱ࣒࡛᭱ᑠࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࣔࢹ
ࣝฟຊほ ሗࡢྠࢆᅗࡿ࣐࣭࢝ࣝࣥࣇࣝࢱ࣮1㸧
ࡸ㏆ᖺࡣ⢏Ꮚࣇࣝࢱ࣮2㸧࠸ࡗࡓᡭἲࡶᥦࡉࢀ࡚࠾
ࡾ㸪ࡑࡢほⅬࡽࡢ◊✲ࡶᩘከࡃ㐍ࡵࡽࢀ࡚ࡁࡓ㸬 ௨ୖࡢ⫼ᬒࡢࡶ㸪≉ࣔࢹࣝฟຊࡢ⢭ᗘ╔┠ࡍࡿ
㸪࠶ࡿ᮲௳ୗ࡛ࡣ⌧ᛶࡢⰋ࠸ࡶࡢࡀ㸪ࡀኚࢃࡿ
㏵➃⢭ᗘࡀⴠࡕࡿࡀࡼࡃぢࡽࢀ㸪⌧ᴗᢸᙜ⪅ࢆᝎ
ࡲࡏ࡚ࡁࡓ㸬࠼ࡤ㸪ඛ⾜㝆㞵ࡀከ࠸ሙྜࡸ2ᒣὥỈࡢ 2 ᒣ┠㸪ࡲࡓ㸪⼥㞷ᮇ࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪ᑡ㔞ࡢ㝆㞵࡛࠶ࡗ࡚
ࡶணࢆࡣࡿ㉸࠼ࡿつᶍ࡞ฟỈ⮳ࡿࢣ࣮ࢫࡸ㸪
↓㝆㞵ࡀ⥅⥆ࡋࡓᚋ࡛ࡣ㸪ࡲࡲࡗࡓ㞵ࡀ㝆ࡗࡓࡋ࡚
ࡶࡉὶฟࡋ࡞࠸ࢣ࣮ࢫࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬௨ୖࡢࡼ࠺ὶᇦࡢ
‵₶≧ែࡀὶฟ⌧㇟ࡁࡃ㛵ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ࡇࡢࡇࢆ
⪃៖ࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤᬑ㐢ᛶࡢ࠶ࡿὥỈண ࡣ㞴ࡋ࠸⪃࠼ࡿ㸬 ࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ⌧ᅾ⌧ᴗࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿὥỈண ࢩࢫࢸ࣒࡛
ࡣ㸪≉ᐃࡢࢣ࣮ࢫࡢࡳࡢ㝆㞵㹼ὶฟ㛵ಀᇶ࡙࠸࡚ࣔࢹ
ࣝࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡀタᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࡓ࠼ྠ୍ὶᇦ࡛
࠶ࡗ࡚ࡶ␗࡞ࡿࢆ࠶࡚ࡣࡵࡿ⢭ᗘࡀᝏࡍࡿࡇ
ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬
ࡑࡇ࡛ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪⌧ᴗ࡛ࡢὥỈண ࡢ⢭ᗘྥୖࢆ┠
ⓗ㸪ὶᇦࡢ‵₶ᗘࢆ⾲ࡍࠕὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࠖᛂࡌࡓὶฟ
⋡ࡢᑟධࡼࡗ࡚ὥỈࡢ⌧ண ࡢ⢭ᗘྥୖࢆヨࡳࡓ㸬 ලయⓗࡣḟࡢᡭ㡰᳨࡛ウࢆ㐍ࡵࡓ㸬
1㸧 ࠕὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࠖࡢᐃ㔞ࢆ┠ⓗࡋ࡚㸪㛗ᮇⓗ࡞Ỉ
ᩥㅖ㔞㸦㞵㔞㸪⼥㞷㔞㸪Ⓨᩓ㔞㸧ࢆໟᣓⓗ᥎ᐃ ࡋ㸪ࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹ࡛ࣝᵓᡂࡋࡓศᕸᆺὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡼ
ࡗ࡚ὶฟ㔞ࢆ⟬ฟࡋࡓ㸬
2㸧௨ୖ࡛⟬ฟࡉࢀࡿྛࢱࣥࢡࡢṧ␃Ỉࢆ㈓␃㔞ࡳ࡞
ࡋ㸪ࡇࢀࡼࡗ࡚ࠎ้ࠎኚࡍࡿὥỈᮇ㛫୰ࡢ ὶฟ⋡ࢆ⟬ᐃࡍࡿ᪉ἲࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬
3㸧 ࡇࡢὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚ὶฟ⋡ࢆ㏲ḟኚࡉࡏࡿ
᪉ᘧ㸪࡞ࡽࡧ㸪⌧ᅾ㐠⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿὶฟ⋡ࢆᅛᐃ ࡍࡿ᪉ᘧࡼࡗ࡚ὥỈࡢ⌧ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪୧⪅ࢆ
ẚ㍑ࡋࡓ㸬
௨ୖࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿィ⟬ᡭἲࡣ㸪ὥỈ ࡢ⌧࣭ண ࡢ⢭ᗘྥୖຠᯝࡢ࠶ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡗࡓ㸬 ᑐ㇟ὶᇦ
ᑐ㇟ὶᇦࡣ㸪▼⊁ᕝࡢୖὶ㒊⨨ࡍࡿ㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒ὶ ᇦ㸦ὶᇦ㠃✚㸸134.0 km2㸧㸪㞷ࢲ࣒ὶᇦ㸦ὶᇦ㠃✚㸸 219.6 km2㸧㸪㔠ᒣࢲ࣒ὶᇦ㸦470.0 km2㸧ࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ㸧㸬
࠸ࡎࢀࡶὥỈㄪ⠇㸪Ⓨ㟁ࡸỈ㐨Ỉࡢ౪⤥㸪ࡲࡓ㸪ᅜෆ᭷
ᩘࡢ✄సᆅᖏ࡛࠶ࡿ▼⊁ᖹ㔝ࡢࢇࡀ࠸⏝Ỉࡢ౪⤥ࢆᢸ
࠺ከ┠ⓗࢲ࣒࡛࠶ࡿ㸬࡞࠾㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒ࢆ
ᑐ㇟᳨ウࢆ㐍ࡵ㸪᳨ウᡭἲࡢ୍⯡ᛶࢆ㞷ࢲ࣒࣭㔠ᒣ ࢲ᳨࣒࡚ドࡋࡓ㸬
ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ
ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃᡭἲ
ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ࠶ࡓࡗ࡚ࡣ㸪ཱྀ⃝ࡽࡀ㛤Ⓨࡋࡓ Ỉ࣭⇕ᨭࣔࢹࣝࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓ3㸧㸬ࡇࡢᡭἲ࡛ࡣ㸪ᆅୖẼ
㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ㸦᪥༢㸧ࡽ⣙1 kmᅄ᪉ࡢ࣓ࢵࢩࣗẖࡢỈ
ᩥㅖ㔞㸦㝆㞵㸪㝆㞷㸪✚㞷㸪⼥㞷㸪Ⓨᩓ㔞㸧ࡀᚓࡽࢀ
ࡿ㸬௨ୖ࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡿ㞵㔞⼥㞷㔞ࡢྜィࡽⓎᩓ㔞ࢆ
ᕪࡋᘬࡁ㸪ࡑࢀࢆࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹࣝධຊࡋ㸪ࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹࣝ
ࡢ㈓␃㧗ࢆ⟬ฟࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ㸧㸬ࡇࡢ㈓␃㧗ࢆྛ࣓ࢵࢩࣗࡢ
‵₶ᗘࢆ⾲ࡍ㈓␃㔞ࡳ࡞ࡋࡓ㸬
㈓␃㔞ࡢጇᙜᛶࡣ┤᥋ⓗࡣ᳨ド࡛ࡁ࡞࠸㸬ࡑࡇ࡛㸪 ࢱ ࣥ ࢡ ࣔ ࢹ ࣝ ࡼ ࡗ ࡚ ィ ⟬ ࡉ ࢀ ࡿ ᩳ 㠃 ὶ ฟ 㔞 ࢆ kinematic waveᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚Ἑ㐨㏣㊧ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࢲ࣒ᆅⅬ࡛ほ ࡉࢀࡿὶ㔞ࡢ⌧ᛶࢆࡶࡗ࡚㈓␃㔞ࡢጇᙜᛶࢆ☜ㄆࡋ ࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪ࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹࣝࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡣὶᇦ≉ᛶࢆᫎ
ࡋࡓ್࡞ࡿࡇࡽ㸪ὶᇦẖ್ࢆタᐃࡍࡿࡇࡋ ࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣ㸪ィ⟬ὶ㔞ᐇ⦼ὶ㔞ࡢㄗᕪࡀᑠࡉࡃ࡞ࡿ
ࡼ࠺ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆ᥈⣴ࡋ㸪⾲♧ࡍ್ࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓ㸬 ィ⟬ࡣẼ㇟ࡸᆅᙧ㛵ࡍࡿࢹ࣮ࢱࡀᚲせ࡞ࡿࡀ㸪 ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡋ࡚ࢲ࣒⟶⌮⏝ࡢ࣮ࣝࢳࣥࢹ
࣮ࢱ㸦Ẽ 㸪‵ᗘ㸪㝆Ỉ㔞㸪㢼㏿࡞㸧ࢆ⏝࠸㸪ᆅᙧࢹ
࣮ࢱࡋ࡚ࡣ▼⊁ᕝࣛࣥࢻࢫࢣ࣮ࣉሗ4㸧ࡸᅜᅵᩘ್
ሗࢆ⏝ࡋࡓ㸬
ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ
ᅗࡣ㸪㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒࠾ࡅࡿ2003ᖺ㹼2012ᖺࡢὶ㔞
࠾ࡼࡧ㈓␃㔞ࢆ᥎ᐃࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᅗࡢୖẁࡣὶ㔞ࡢ
⌧⤖ᯝ㸪ୗẁࡣࢱࣥࢡࡢ㈓␃㧗࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ୖẁࡢᅗ࠾࠸࡚ᐇ⥺ࡣィ⟬ὶ㔞㸪⅊Ⰽࡢ㠃ࡣᐇ⦼ὶ 㔞࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢᅗࡽ㸪ィ⟬ὶ㔞ࡣ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ὶฟ≧ἣࢆ
⌧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡿ㸬ὶฟ㔞ࢆ⌧ࡍࡿࡣ㸪ࢱ
ࣥࢡ㈓␃㧗ࡀᐇែྜࡗ࡚࠸࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸㸬ࡋࡓࡀ ࡗ࡚㸪ィ⟬ὶ㔞ࡀᐇ⦼್➢ྜࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࡣ㸪ࢱࣥࢡ㈓␃
ᅗ ᑐ㇟ὶᇦ㸬
㸦㸧ෆࡢᩘ್ࡣὶᇦ㠃✚㸬 ᅗ ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ࣓࣮ࢪ㸬
q1
q2
q3
q4
Ⓨᩓ㔞 㞵㔞
✚㞷 ⼥㞷㔞
q1q2q3q4 ᩳ㠃ὶฟ Ἑ㐨㏣㊧
㈓␃㔞
ࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹࣝ
ᑐ㇟ὶᇦ
㞵㔞㸩⼥㞷㔞Ⓨᩓ㔞
Ἑᕝὶฟ㔞 ᆅ㠃
a11
a12
a21
a31
b1
b2
c11
c12
c21
ᅗ ㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒࠾ࡅࡿὶ㔞㸪࠾ࡼࡧ㸪㈓␃㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝ㸬
0 60 120 180 240 300 0
50 100 150 200 250
㞵㔞䠇⼥㞷㔞䠄mm/d䠅
ὶ㔞䠄m3/s䠅
ᐇ⦼ὶ㔞 㞵㔞䠇⼥㞷㔞 ィ⟬ὶ㔞
䛆㇏ᖹᓙ䝎䝮䠈ὶᇦ㠃✚䠖134.0km2䛇
㻜 㻝㻜㻜 㻞㻜㻜 㻟㻜㻜 㻠㻜㻜 㻡㻜㻜
㻞㻜㻜㻟ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻜㻠ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻜㻡ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻜㻢ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻜㻣ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻜㻤ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻜㻥ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻝㻜ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻝㻝ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻝㻞ᖺ㻝᭶ 㻞㻜㻝㻟ᖺ㻝᭶
㈓␃㧗㻔㼙㼙㻕
1ẁ┠䝍䞁䜽䛾㈓␃㧗 2ẁ┠䝍䞁䜽䛾㈓␃㧗
3ẁ┠䝍䞁䜽䛾㈓␃㧗
⾲ ࢱࣥࢡࣔࢹࣝࡢࣃࣛ
࣓࣮ࢱ㸬
䝟䝷 䝯䞊䝍
㇏ᖹᓙ 䝎䝮
㞷 䝎䝮
㔠ᒣ 䝎䝮 a11 㻜㻚㻝㻟㻞 㻜㻚㻞㻟㻠 㻜㻚㻝㻝㻡 a12 㻜㻚㻝㻠㻢 㻜㻚㻝㻜㻠 㻜㻚㻜㻤㻢 a21 㻜㻚㻜㻠㻝 㻜㻚㻜㻠㻝 㻜㻚㻜㻢㻠 a31 㻜㻚㻜㻣㻟 㻜㻚㻝㻜㻜 㻜㻚㻜㻟㻣 b1 㻜㻚㻝㻜㻠 㻜㻚㻝㻡㻢 㻜㻚㻝㻡㻡 b2 㻜㻚㻜㻥㻤 㻜㻚㻜㻡㻠 㻜㻚㻜㻥㻢 c11 㻡㻟㻚㻣 㻤㻥㻚㻤 㻤㻠㻚㻤 c12 㻞㻜㻚㻢 㻝㻠㻚㻠 㻝㻝㻚㻡 c21 㻠㻡㻚㻢 㻢㻡㻚㻤 㻞㻜㻚㻡
㧗ࡀⰋዲ᥎ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࢆ♧ࡋࡓࡶࡢ⪃࠼ࡽࢀ
ࡿ㸬
ୗẁࡢᅗࡣࢱࣥࢡ㈓␃㧗࡛࠶ࡿࡀ㸪࣓ࢵࢩࣗẖィ⟬
ࡉࢀࡓࢱࣥࢡࡢ㈓␃㧗ࢆὶᇦෆ࡛ᖹᆒࡋࡓ್࡛࠶ࡿ㸬 ࡇࡢᅗࡼࡿ㸪౪⤥ࡉࢀࡿỈ㔞ࡢᑡ࡞࠸ཝᮇࡣࢱࣥ
ࢡ㈓␃㧗ࡀᑠࡉࡃ㸪୍᪉㸪⼥㞷ᮇࡣ㈓␃㧗ࡀࡁ࠸㸬⼥
㞷ᮇࡢᅵተࡣከ㔞ࡢỈࢆྵࢇ࡛࠾ࡾ㸪‵₶≧ែࡀ㛗ᮇ㛫 ࡘ࡙ࡃᵝᏊࡀࢃࡿ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ኚࡣ㸪୍⯡ⓗゝࢃ
ࢀࡿ≉ᚩ࡛ࡣ࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢ㸪ᮏᡭἲࡼࡾᅵተࡀ㈓␃ࡍࡿ
Ỉ㔞ࢆᐃ㔞ⓗ⾲ࡍࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡓ㸬
ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓࣁࢻࣟࢢࣛࣇࡢ⌧
ὶฟ⋡ࡢ⟬ᐃ᪉ἲὶฟࣔࢹࣝ
ᒣ⏣ࡽࡣὶᇦࡢಖỈ⬟ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓὶฟ⋡ࡢ⟬ᐃ᪉ἲࢆ
ᥦࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ5㸧㸬ࡇࡢ᪉ἲ࡛ࡣ㸪ึᮇỈศ㔞⣼ຍ㞵㔞
ࡽὶฟ⋡ࡀ⟬ฟࡉࢀࡿ㸬ࡍ࡞ࢃࡕ㸪㝆㞵๓ࡢᅵተࡢ‵
≧ែ㸪㝆㞵つᶍࢆᫎࡋࡓὶฟ⋡ࡀᚓࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛
ࡣ㸪ᒣ⏣ࡽࡢ᪉ἲ࡛ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿึᮇỈศ㔞๓❶࡛ồ
ࡵࡓὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆ࠼㸪ࡇࢀࡼࡗ࡚ὶฟ⋡ࡢ⟬ᐃࢆヨ
ࡳࡓ㸬ᇶ♏ᘧࡣḟࡢࡼ࠺࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
㸦1㸧
ࡇࡇ࡛㸪݂㸸㝆㞵㛤ጞ݅㛫ᚋࡢὶฟ⋡㸪ܵଵ㸸㝆㞵㛤ጞ๓
᪥࠾ࡅࡿ㈓␃㔞㸦1ẁ┠ࢱࣥࢡࡢ㈓␃㧗㸧㸦mm㸧㸪ݎ㸸 㞵㔞ᙉᗘ㸦mm/h㸧㸪ߙ㸸ᮍ▱ᐃᩘ㸦1/mm㸧㸬࡞࠾㸪ᒣ⏣5㸧
ࡽࡢሗ࿌ࡼࡿ㸪ึᮇỈศ㔞ࡣ⾲ᒙᅵተࢆᑐ㇟ࡋ࡚
࠸ࡿࡇࡽ㸪ᮏሗ࿌࡛ࡣ㸪ᘧ㸦1㸧ࡢึᮇ㈓␃㔞ܵଵࡣ
⾲ᒙᅵተᑐᛂࡍࡿࡶࡢࡋ࡚1ẁ┠ࢱࣥࢡࡢ㈓␃㧗ࢆ
࠼ࡓ㸬ࡓࡔࡋ㸪2࣭3ẁ┠ࡢࢱࣥࢡ㈓␃㧗ࡢ⏝ࡶ⪃࠼
ࡽࢀࡿࡀ㸪ࡇࡢⅬࡣᚋࡢ᳨ウㄢ㢟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
௨ୖࡢὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡿὶฟ⋡ࢆほ 㞵㔞
ࡌ㸪ࡑࢀࢆ⾲㠃࣭୰㛫ὶฟ㔞ᐤࡍࡿ㞵㔞ࡋ㸪ṧࡾ
ࢆᆅୗỈὶฟ㔞ᐤࡍࡿ㞵㔞ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺ศ㞳 ࡋࡓࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ㞵㔞ࢆูࠎࡢ㈓␃㛵ᩘࣔࢹࣝධຊࡋ࡚
ὶฟ㔞ࢆ⟬ฟࡋ㸪ࡑࡢྜィࢆὶ㔞ࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ㸧㸬ࡇࡇ
࡛ࡣ㸪ࣔࢹࣝᐃᩘࡢᑡ࡞࠸㸪௨ୗࡢ㈓␃㛵ᩘࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝
࠸ࡓ㸬
⾲㠃࣭୰㛫ὶฟ㔞ࡢ⟬ฟࡣḟᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ6㸧㸬
㸦2㸧
ࡓࡔࡋ㸪
㸦3㸧
ࡇࡇ࡛㸪ݍଵ㸸⾲㠃࣭୰㛫ὶฟ㧗㸦mm/h㸧㸪ݏ௦ଵ㸸㈓␃㧗㸦mm㸧㸪
݇ଵଵǡ ݇ଵଶ㸸㈓␃ಀᩘ㸪ଵǡ ଶ㸸㈓␃ᣦᩘ㸪݂㸸ὶฟ⋡㸪݂ݎതതത㸸
⾲㠃࣭୰㛫ὶฟ㛵ࡍࡿ㞵㔞ࡢᖹᆒᙉᗘ㸦mm/h㸧㸪݂㸸
ࣔࢹࣝᐃᩘ㸦ᮍ▱ᐃᩘ㸧㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪ᆅୗỈὶฟ㔞ࡢィ⟬ࡣḟᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ7㸧㸬
㸦4㸧
ࡓࡔࡋ㸪
㸦5㸧 ࡇࡇ࡛㸪ݍଶ㸸ᆅୗỈὶฟ㧗㸦mm/h㸧㸪ݏ௦ଶ㸸㈓␃㧗㸦mm㸧㸪
݇ଶଵǡ ݇ଶଶ㸸㈓␃ಀᩘ㸪݂㸸ࣔࢹࣝᐃᩘ㸦ᮍ▱ᐃᩘ㸧㸬
ࣁࢻࣟࢢࣛࣇࡢ⌧⤖ᯝ
௨ୖ࡛㏙ࡓ᪉ἲࡼࡗ࡚ὥỈࡢࣁࢻࣟࢢࣛࣇࢆ
⌧ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣ㸪ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿࡇࡢຠᯝ
ࢆぢࡿࡓࡵ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡼࡿὶ㔞⌧ຍ࠼㸪」ᩘ
ࡢᖹᆒⓗ࡞ὶฟ⋡ᅛᐃࡋࡓሙྜࡢὶ㔞⌧ࡶ⾜࠸㸪 ୧⪅ࢆẚ㍑ࡋࡓ㸬
ィ⟬⏝࠸ࡿᮍ▱ᐃᩘ㸦ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡢߙ㸪ὶฟࣔࢹ
ࣝࡢ݂࣭݂㸧ࡣ㸪ḟᘧ࡛࠼ࡽࢀࡿRMSEࡀ᭱ᑠ࡞ࡿ
್ࢆ᥈⣴ࡍࡿࡇ࡛Ỵࡵࡓ㸬
㸦6㸧
ࡇࡇ࡛㸪ܰ㸸ࢹ࣮ࢱᩘ㸪ݍ㸸ᐇ ὶ㔞㸪ݍ㸸ィ⟬ὶ㔞㸬 ල య ⓗ ࡣ 㸪 ್ ࡢ ⠊ ᅖ ࢆͲǤͲͲͳ Ƚ ͲǤͲͳͷ㸪 ͲǤͳ ݂ ͳǤͷ㸪ͳͲͲ ݂ ͶͲͲࡋ࡚㸪ࡑࡢ㛫ࢆ 40
ศࡋ㸪413✀㢮ࡢᮍ▱ᐃᩘࡢ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏࡘ࠸࡚ὶ㔞 ィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠸RMSEࡀ᭱ᑠ࡞ࡿᮍ▱ᐃᩘࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲ
ࡓ 㸪 ᅛ ᐃ ࡋ ࡓ ὶ ฟ ⋡ ࢆ ⏝ ࠸ ࡿ ሙ ྜ ࡣ 㸪 ὶ ฟ ⋡ ࢆ ͲǤͲͳ ݂ ͳǤͲͲࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛RMSEࡀ᭱ᑠ࡞ࡿᮍ▱ᐃᩘ
ࢆ᥈⣴ࡋࡓ㸬
ゎᯒᑐ㇟ࡣ㸪㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒࠾࠸࡚㸪2003ᖺ㹼2011ᖺࡢ 7᭶㹼10᭶ࡢᮇ㛫࡛㸪ࣆ࣮ࢡὶ㔞ࡀᙜヱࢲ࣒ࡢὥỈ㔞㸦60 m3/s㸪ẚὶ㔞㸸0.45 m3/s/km2㸧௨ୖ㸪ࡶࡋࡃࡣ㸪᪥㞵㔞ࡀ
50 mm௨ୖ࡞ࡗࡓ18ὥỈࡋࡓ㸬
௨ୖࡼࡗ࡚ᚓࡓᮍ▱ᐃᩘࢆ⾲㸪ࡲࡓ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬
ᐃᘧ㸦ᘧ㸦1㸧㸧ࡢ≉ᛶࢆᅗ♧ࡍ㸬ᅗࡣ㸪ึᮇ㈓␃
㔞ܵଵ㸦1ẁ┠ࢱࣥࢡࡢ㈓␃㧗㸧ࡀ0 mm㸪20 mm㸪40 mm ࡢሙྜ࠾࠸࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡿὶฟ⋡ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ẚ㍑ࡢࡓࡵ㸪
݂ൌ ͳ െሺെߙܵଵሻ
ߙ ݎ݀ݐ ቊͳ െ ቆെߙ න ݎ݀ݐ
ቇቋ
൞ݏ௦ଵൌ ݇ଵଵݍଵభ ݇ଵଶ ݀
݀ݐ൫ݍଵమ൯
݀ݏ௦ଵ
݀ݐ ൌ ݂ݎ െ ݍଵ
ቐ
݇ଵଵൌ ʹǤͺʹ͵ͷ݂ܣǤଶସ
݇ଵଶൌ ͲǤʹͺ͵ͷ݇ଵଵଶ൫݂ݎതതത൯ିǤଶସ଼
ଵൌ ͲǤǡ ଶൌ ͲǤͶͶͺ
൞ݏୱଶൌ ݇ଶଵݍଶ ݇ଶଶ
݀ݍଶ
݀ݏ௦ଶ ݀ݐ
݀ݐ ൌ ሺͳ െ ݂ሻݎ െ ݍଶ
݇ଶଵൌ ͲǤͲͳ݂ܣǤଶସǡ ݇ଶଶൌ ͲǤͶ݇ଶଵଶ
ܴܯܵܧ ൌ ඩͳ
ܰ൫ݍǡെ ݍǡ൯ଶ
ே
ୀଵ
ᅗ ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢ࣓࣮ࢪ㸬
㞵㔞䠄r䠅
ὶฟ⋡䠄f䠅䛻䜘䜛㝆㞵䛾ศ㞳
⾲㠃䞉୰㛫ὶฟ䛻 ᐤ䛩䜛㝆㞵䠄fr䠅
ᆅୗỈὶฟ䛻 ᐤ䛩䜛㝆㞵䠄 䠄1-f 䠅r䠅
ᆅୗỈὶ ฟ㔞䠗q2
⾲㠃䞉୰㛫 ὶฟ㔞䠗q1
ὶฟ㔞䠄q1+q2䠅
㈓␃㛵ᩘ䝰䝕䝹 䠄⾲㠃䞉୰㛫ὶฟ䠅
㈓␃㛵ᩘ䝰䝕䝹 䠄ᆅୗỈὶฟ䠅
」ᩘࡽỴࡵࡓᅛᐃὶฟ⋡㸦݂=0.36㸧ࡶᅗ♧ࡋࡓ㸬 ࡇࡢᅗࡼࡿ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡿὶฟ⋡ࡣ㸪ึ
ᮇ㈓␃㔞㸪࠾ࡼࡧ㸪⣼ຍ㞵㔞ࡢቑకࡗ࡚ࡁࡃ࡞ࡿ
ᵝᏊࡀࢃࡿ㸬ึᮇ㈓␃㔞ܵଵࡀ0 mmࡢሙྜࡣ⣼ຍ㞵㔞 200 mm࡛ὶฟ⋡ࡣ0.4㸪ࡇࢀᑐࡋ㸪ึᮇ㈓␃㔞ࡀ40 mm ࡢሙྜࡣ⣼ຍ㞵㔞100 mm࡛ὶฟ⋡0.4㐩ࡋ㸪ึᮇ㈓
␃㔞ࡀὶฟ⋡ࡁࡃ㛵ࡍࡿ࠸ࡗࡓ≉ᛶࡀᢕᥱࡉࢀ
ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪」ᩘࡽᚓࡓᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ㸪 ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡿሙྜ㸪⣼ຍ㞵㔞ࡢᑡ࡞࠸࡛ࡣ ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࡼࡾᑠࡉ࡞ὶฟ⋡㸪⣼ຍ㞵㔞ࡢከ࠸࡛ࡣ
ࡁ࡞ὶฟ⋡ࡀタᐃࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡞ࡿ㸬
ᅗ࠾ࡼࡧᅗࡣ㸪」ᩘࡢὶ㔞ࣆ࣮ࢡࢆ᭷ࡍࡿὥỈࢆ㸪 ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸࡚⌧ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
࡞࠾㸪ᅗ♧ࡋࡓࡣ㸪18ࡢゎᯒࡢ୰࡛ࣆ࣮ࢡ ὶ㔞ࡀ᭱࡞ࡗࡓὥỈ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᅗࡢୖẁࡣ㸪ὶฟ⋡
⟬ᐃᘧࡼࡗ࡚࠼ࡽࢀࡓὶฟ⋡ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࢆ♧ࡋ㸪
ୗẁࡣὶ㔞ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ୗẁࡢᅗ࠾࠸࡚ۑ༳ࡣᐇ⦼ὶ 㔞㸪㯮Ⰽࡢᐇ⥺ࡣὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚⌧ࡋࡓὶ㔞㸪
⅊Ⰽࡢᐇ⥺ࡣᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࡼࡿ⌧ὶ㔞࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡽ
ࡢᅗࡼࡿ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓຠᯝࡣ㸪ᅗࡢ⤒
㐣㛫6㛫┠ࡢ᭱ึࡢὶ㔞ࣆ࣮ࢡ㸪ᅗࡢ⤒㐣㛫 30㛫┠௨㝆᫂░⾲ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
௨ୖࡢ2ࢆྵࡵࡓ18ࡢὥỈࢆᑐ㇟ὶฟ⋡⟬
ᐃᘧࡢඃᛶࢆㄪࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣ㸪ḟᘧ࡛࠼ࡽࢀࡿ
Nash-Sutcliffeᣦᶆ8㸧ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ࠾ࡼࡧᅛᐃὶ ฟ⋡ࡼࡿ⌧ᛶࢆẚ㍑ࡋࡓ㸬
㸦7㸧
ࡇࡇ࡛㸪ܰ㸸ࢹ࣮ࢱᩘ㸪ݍ㸸ᐇ ὶ㔞㸪ݍ㸸ィ⟬ὶ㔞㸪ݍതതത㸸ᑐ㇟
ᮇ㛫ࡢᖹᆒὶ㔞㸬Nash-Sutcliffeᣦᶆܧࡣ㸪್ࡀ1㏆࠸
ᐇ ್ィ⟬್ࡢ㐺ྜᗘࡀ㧗࠸ࡇࢆ⾲ࡋ㸪0.7௨ୖ
࡛⌧ᛶࡀⰋዲࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺㸪ὥỈつᶍ
౫ࡽࡎホ౯࡛ࡁࡿࡇࡽ㸪ࡇࡢᣦᶆࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࡇࡋ
ࡓ㸬
௨ୖ࡛ồࡵࡓNash-Sutcliffeᣦᶆࣆ࣮ࢡẚὶ㔞ࡢᑐ ᛂࢆᅗ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ᅗ୰㸪ۑ༳ࡣὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡼࡿ
⌧⤖ᯝ㸪༳ࡣᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࡼࡿ⌧⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢ ᅗࡼࡿ㸪ࣆ࣮ࢡẚὶ㔞ࡀ1.0 m3/s/km2ࡼࡾࡁ࠸ሙྜ
ܧൌ ͳ െ ൫ݍǡെ ݍǡ൯ଶ
ே
ୀଵ
൫ݍǡെ ݍതതത൯ ଶ
ே
ୀଵ
൙
⾲ ᮍ▱ᐃᩘࡢ᥈⣴⤖ᯝ㸦㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒㸧㸬
㼒㼏 㼒㼎
ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ 䃐㻩㻜㻚㻜㻜㻡㻣 㻜㻚㻢㻢 㻞㻢㻡
ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ 㼒㻩㻜㻚㻟㻢 㻜㻚㻥㻞 㻞㻠㻟
ὶฟ䝰䝕䝹䛾ᮍ▱ᐃᩘ
ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ䛾ᮍ▱ᐃ
ᩘ䠄䃐䠅䠈ὶฟ⋡䠄㼒䠅 ィ⟬᪉ἲ
ᅗ ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡢ≉ᛶ㸦㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒㸧㸬
㻜㻚㻜 㻜㻚㻞 㻜㻚㻠 㻜㻚㻢 㻜㻚㻤 㻝㻚㻜
㻜 㻡㻜 㻝㻜㻜 㻝㻡㻜 㻞㻜㻜 㻞㻡㻜 㻟㻜㻜 㻟㻡㻜 㻠㻜㻜
ὶฟ⋡
⣼ຍ㞵㔞 㻔㼙㼙㻕
㻿㻝㻩㻠㻜㼙㼙 㻿㻝㻩㻞㻜㼙㼙 㻿㻝㻩㻜㼙㼙
0.36䠄ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡䠅 ɲ=0.0057
ᅗ ྛࡢ 1DVK6XWFOLIIH ᣦᶆ㸦㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒㸧㸬
Ͳ2.0 Ͳ1.5 Ͳ1.0 Ͳ0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
NashͲSutcliffeᣦᶆ
䝢䞊䜽ẚὶ㔞䠄m3/s/km2䠅 ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡
ᅗ ࣁࢻࣟࢢࣛࣇࡢ⌧⤖ᯝ㸦㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒㸧㸬 2011ᖺ9᭶1᪥㹼8᪥ࡢὥỈ㸬⥲㞵㔞㸸404 mm㸪ࣆ࣮ࢡẚὶ 㔞㸸3.98 m3/s/km2㸪๓᪥ࡢ1ẁ┠ࢱࣥࢡ㈓␃㧗㸸15 mm㸬ᅗ♧
ࡋࡓᮇ㛫ࡣ9᭶4᪥㹼7᪥㸬
0 10 20 30 40 50 0
120 240 360 480 600
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78
㞵㔞䠄mm/h䠅
ὶ㔞䠄m3/s䠅
⤒㐣㛫䠄h䠅
㞵㔞 ᐇ⦼ὶ㔞
ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ䠄ɲ=0.0057㸧 ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡䠄f=0.36㸧
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
ὶฟ⋡
ᅗ ࣁࢻࣟࢢࣛࣇࡢ⌧⤖ᯝ㸦㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒㸧㸬 2003ᖺ8᭶8᪥㹼9᪥ࡢὥỈ㸬⥲㞵㔞㸸126 mm㸪ࣆ࣮ࢡẚὶ 㔞㸸0.59 m3/s/km2㸪๓᪥ࡢ1ẁ┠ࢱࣥࢡ㈓␃㧗㸸18 mm㸬
0 10 20 30 40 50 0
60 120 180 240 300
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
㞵㔞䠄mm/h䠅
ὶ㔞䠄m3/s䠅
⤒㐣㛫䠄h䠅
㞵㔞 ᐇ⦼ὶ㔞
ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ䠄ɲ=0.0057㸧 ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡䠄f=0.36㸧
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
ὶฟ⋡
ࡣ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࡼࡿ⤖ᯝࡣࡁ࡞㐪
࠸ࡣ࡞࠸㸬ࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪ࣆ࣮ࢡẚὶ㔞ࡀ 1.0 m3/s/km2
ࡼࡾᑠࡉ࠸ሙྜ࡛ࡣ㸪ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜࡢ
Nash-Sutcliffeᣦᶆࡣⴭࡋࡃᑠࡉ࠸್࡞ࡿࡀ࠶ࡿࡶ
ࡢࡢ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜࡣࡑࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࡣ ぢࡽࢀ࡞࠸㸬ฟỈつᶍࡢẚ㍑ⓗᑠࡉ࡞ὥỈࡣ㸪ᅵተࡢ‵
₶≧ែࡢ㐪࠸ࡼࡾ㸪ฟỈつᶍࡢࡁ࡞ὥỈࡶ㸪ᑠࡉ
࡞ὥỈࡶ࡞ࡾᚓࡿ㸬ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡢNash-Sutcliffeᣦᶆ ࡣᏳᐃࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ᅵተࡢ‵₶ᗘࢆὶฟィ⟬ᫎࡉࡏࡿ
ࡇ࡛⌧⢭ᗘࡢᏳᐃຠᯝࡢ࠶ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡗࡓ㸬 ὥỈண ࡢ㐺⏝
㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒ࡢ㐺⏝⤖ᯝ
ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆὥỈண ィ⟬⏝ࡋ㸪ὥỈண ࠾
ࡅࡿຠᯝࢆぢࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ࡣ㸪ィ⟬ᡭἲ⮬యࢆ᳨ドࡍࡿព ᅗࡽ㸪ண 㞵㔞ࡣᐇ⦼್ࢆ࠼ࡓ㸬ィ⟬㝿ࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪 ᐇ㐠⏝ࢆ຺ࡋ㸪࣐࣭࢝ࣝࣥࣇࣝࢱ࣮9㸧ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ィ⟬
ὶ㔞ࡸὶฟࣔࢹࣝᐃᩘ㸦݂࣭݂㸧㸪ࡲࡓ㸪ὶฟ⋡ࢆ㏲ḟ⿵
ṇࡋࡓ㸬
ᅗࡣ㸪2011ᖺ9᭶5᪥㹼6᪥ࡢὥỈࢆண ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ
࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᕥࡢᅗࡣὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜࡢண ⤖ᯝ㸪
ྑࡢᅗࡣᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜࡢ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᅗࡢۑ
༳ࡣᐇ ὶ㔞㸪㯮Ⰽࡢᐇ⥺ࡣ1㛫ẖィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ6
㛫ඛࡲ࡛ࡢண ὶ㔞࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᅗࡼࡿ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ
ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓண ⤖ᯝࡣᐇ⦼ὶ㔞㏆࠸ண ್࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ
ࡶࡢࡢ㸪ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜࡢண ࡣᐇ⦼ὶ㔞ࡼࡾ
ᑠࡉ࡞ண ὶ㔞࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢ࡛ࡣ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃ ᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ᪉ࡀண ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸࠸࠼ࡿ㸬
18 ࡢὥỈࡘ࠸࡚ண ㄗᕪࢆᩚ⌮ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࡀ
⾲ ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬⾲ࡣ㸪ಶࠎࡢ࠾ࡅࡿண ㄗᕪ 㸦RMSE㸧ࢆ࣮ࣜࢻࢱู࣒ᥖ㍕ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⾲ࡢࠕㄗ ᕪࡢẚࠖࡣ㸪ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࡢRMSEὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡢRMSE ࡢẚ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ࡇࡢ್ࡀ1.0ࢆୗᅇࢀࡤ㸪ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࡼࡾ
ὶฟ⋡⟬ᘧࡼࡿண ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸ࡇࢆពࡍࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪
⾲ࡢ᭱ୗ⾜ࡣ㸪ㄗᕪࡢẚࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆᥖ㍕ࡋࡓ㸬 ㄗᕪࡢẚ╔┠ࡍࡿ㸪ẚࡀ1.0ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿࡀ6
࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢ㸪ከࡃࡢࡣ1.0ࢆୗᅇࡾ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ
ࢆ⏝࠸ࡿࡇ࡛ண ㄗᕪࡀᑠࡉࡃ࡞ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡗࡓ㸬 ᖹᆒⓗࡣ㸪1㛫㹼6㛫ඛࡢண ㄗᕪ㸦RMSE㸧ࡣ㸪 20%㹼25%⛬ᗘࡢῶᑡ࡞ࡗࡓ㸬
௨ୖࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒ὶᇦࡢὥỈண ࡛ࡣ㸪ὶฟ⋡
⟬ᐃᘧࡀண ⢭ᗘྥୖຠᯝࡢ࠶ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡗࡓ㸬ḟ
㸪ᮏᡭἲࢆ㞷ࢲ࣒࣭㔠ᒣࢲ࣒㐺⏝ࡋ㸪ࡑࡢຠᯝࢆ
᳨ドࡍࡿ㸬
ࡢὶᇦ࡛ࡢ㐺⏝⤖ᯝ
௨ୖ࡛㏙ࡓ᪉ἲࢆ㞷ࢲ࣒࠾ࡼࡧ㔠ᒣࢲ࣒㐺⏝ࡋ㸪 ண ὶ㔞ࡢ⢭ᗘࢆㄪࡓ㸬ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆ᥎ᐃࡋ㸪2005ᖺ 㹼2010ᖺࡢὥỈࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓᮍ▱ᐃᩘࢆ⾲ࡲࡵ㸪 ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡢ≉ᛶࢆᅗ ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡽࡢᮍ▱ᐃ
ᩘࢆ⏝࠸࡚ὥỈண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ண ὶ㔞ࡢㄗᕪࢆᩚ⌮ࡋࡓ
ࡶࡢࡀ⾲࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢ⾲ࡼࡿ㸪㞷ࢲ࣒࠾ࡅࡿ
ㄗᕪࡢẚࡢᖹᆒࡣ0.83㹼0.89࡛࠶ࡾ⣙15%ࡢㄗᕪࡢῶᑡ
⾲ ㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒࠾ࡅࡿ࣮ࣜࢻࢱ࣒ẖࡢὶ㔞ࡢண ㄗᕪ㸦506(㸧㸬
㻝㛫 㻞㛫 㻟㛫 㻠㛫 㻡㛫 㻢㛫 㻝㛫 㻞㛫 㻟㛫 㻠㛫 㻡㛫 㻢㛫 㻝㛫 㻞㛫 㻟㛫 㻠㛫 㻡㛫 㻢㛫
㻝 㻞㻜㻜㻟㻛㻜㻤㻛㻜㻥 㻝㻞㻢 㻣㻥 㻟㻠㻚㻣㻢 㻟㻢㻚㻤㻥 㻟㻤㻚㻡㻞 㻟㻥㻚㻡㻜 㻠㻜㻚㻞㻜 㻠㻝㻚㻞㻢 㻠㻝㻚㻥㻠 㻠㻠㻚㻞㻝 㻠㻢㻚㻝㻜 㻠㻣㻚㻡㻜 㻠㻤㻚㻣㻢 㻡㻜㻚㻟㻞 㻝㻚㻞㻝 㻝㻚㻞㻜 㻝㻚㻞㻜 㻝㻚㻞㻜 㻝㻚㻞㻝 㻝㻚㻞㻞 㻞 㻞㻜㻜㻟㻛㻝㻜㻛㻞㻟 㻣㻜 㻡㻣 㻝㻜㻚㻞㻝 㻝㻞㻚㻞㻠 㻝㻞㻚㻥㻜 㻝㻟㻚㻣㻡 㻝㻠㻚㻟㻤 㻝㻠㻚㻥㻜 㻢㻚㻣㻞 㻣㻚㻣㻡 㻣㻚㻟㻢 㻣㻚㻝㻢 㻣㻚㻝㻜 㻣㻚㻞㻥 㻜㻚㻢㻢 㻜㻚㻢㻟 㻜㻚㻡㻣 㻜㻚㻡㻞 㻜㻚㻠㻥 㻜㻚㻠㻥 㻟 㻞㻜㻜㻟㻛㻝㻜㻛㻞㻥 㻢㻞 㻝㻠㻤 㻝㻝㻚㻢㻜 㻝㻢㻚㻣㻝 㻝㻢㻚㻢㻣 㻝㻡㻚㻝㻥 㻝㻠㻚㻜㻤 㻝㻠㻚㻟㻟 㻝㻝㻚㻜㻤 㻝㻢㻚㻜㻞 㻝㻢㻚㻞㻢 㻝㻡㻚㻠㻜 㻝㻠㻚㻢㻢 㻝㻠㻚㻥㻟 㻜㻚㻥㻡 㻜㻚㻥㻢 㻜㻚㻥㻤 㻝㻚㻜㻝 㻝㻚㻜㻠 㻝㻚㻜㻠 㻠 㻞㻜㻜㻠㻛㻜㻤㻛㻞㻜 㻣㻡 㻠㻡 㻡㻚㻟㻞 㻢㻚㻟㻟 㻣㻚㻝㻟 㻣㻚㻤㻣 㻤㻚㻞㻣 㻤㻚㻠㻣 㻟㻚㻟㻣 㻠㻚㻜㻞 㻠㻚㻠㻝 㻠㻚㻢㻞 㻠㻚㻣㻠 㻠㻚㻤㻠 㻜㻚㻢㻟 㻜㻚㻢㻟 㻜㻚㻢㻞 㻜㻚㻡㻥 㻜㻚㻡㻣 㻜㻚㻡㻣 㻡 㻞㻜㻜㻠㻛㻜㻤㻛㻟㻝 㻡㻥 㻝㻝㻡 㻝㻜㻚㻜㻝 㻝㻞㻚㻠㻜 㻝㻞㻚㻢㻜 㻝㻞㻚㻠㻢 㻝㻞㻚㻠㻠 㻝㻞㻚㻞㻣 㻥㻚㻤㻠 㻝㻡㻚㻜㻝 㻝㻢㻚㻞㻥 㻝㻢㻚㻢㻜 㻝㻢㻚㻤㻣 㻝㻣㻚㻝㻞 㻜㻚㻥㻤 㻝㻚㻞㻝 㻝㻚㻞㻥 㻝㻚㻟㻟 㻝㻚㻟㻢 㻝㻚㻠㻜 㻢 㻞㻜㻜㻠㻛㻜㻥㻛㻜㻤 㻡㻣 㻣㻢 㻝㻞㻚㻤㻠 㻝㻣㻚㻢㻠 㻝㻣㻚㻣㻝 㻝㻣㻚㻜㻜 㻝㻡㻚㻠㻢 㻝㻟㻚㻡㻠 㻝㻝㻚㻡㻣 㻝㻡㻚㻥㻥 㻝㻢㻚㻡㻤 㻝㻢㻚㻞㻥 㻝㻡㻚㻥㻣 㻝㻡㻚㻥㻣 㻜㻚㻥㻜 㻜㻚㻥㻝 㻜㻚㻥㻠 㻜㻚㻥㻢 㻝㻚㻜㻟 㻝㻚㻝㻤 㻣 㻞㻜㻜㻡㻛㻜㻤㻛㻜㻟 㻝㻝㻢 㻝㻞㻜 㻝㻡㻚㻞㻠 㻝㻣㻚㻞㻠 㻝㻠㻚㻟㻡 㻝㻟㻚㻟㻝 㻝㻞㻚㻜㻠 㻝㻜㻚㻜㻢 㻝㻠㻚㻣㻠 㻝㻡㻚㻥㻢 㻝㻟㻚㻡㻣 㻝㻞㻚㻣㻢 㻝㻝㻚㻟㻠 㻝㻜㻚㻝㻡 㻜㻚㻥㻣 㻜㻚㻥㻟 㻜㻚㻥㻡 㻜㻚㻥㻢 㻜㻚㻥㻠 㻝㻚㻜㻝 㻤 㻞㻜㻜㻡㻛㻜㻥㻛㻜㻣 㻝㻟㻥 㻞㻠㻥 㻝㻥㻚㻞㻜 㻞㻞㻚㻤㻤 㻞㻠㻚㻠㻡 㻞㻢㻚㻝㻢 㻞㻠㻚㻠㻞 㻞㻟㻚㻠㻝 㻝㻤㻚㻜㻟 㻞㻜㻚㻤㻣 㻞㻝㻚㻡㻜 㻞㻞㻚㻢㻤 㻞㻞㻚㻡㻣 㻞㻞㻚㻡㻥 㻜㻚㻥㻠 㻜㻚㻥㻝 㻜㻚㻤㻤 㻜㻚㻤㻣 㻜㻚㻥㻞 㻜㻚㻥㻣 㻥 㻞㻜㻜㻢㻛㻝㻜㻛㻜㻤 㻝㻞㻝 㻢㻤 㻠㻚㻞㻝 㻡㻚㻠㻣 㻢㻚㻤㻤 㻤㻚㻞㻞 㻥㻚㻠㻢 㻝㻜㻚㻡㻝 㻞㻚㻢㻟 㻟㻚㻞㻤 㻟㻚㻥㻟 㻠㻚㻡㻠 㻡㻚㻜㻥 㻡㻚㻡㻣 㻜㻚㻢㻞 㻜㻚㻢㻜 㻜㻚㻡㻣 㻜㻚㻡㻡 㻜㻚㻡㻠 㻜㻚㻡㻟 㻝㻜 㻞㻜㻜㻣㻛㻜㻥㻛㻜㻣 㻥㻞 㻢㻜 㻤㻚㻟㻡 㻝㻜㻚㻡㻞 㻝㻝㻚㻟㻤 㻝㻞㻚㻠㻥 㻝㻟㻚㻡㻢 㻝㻠㻚㻟㻢 㻠㻚㻜㻠 㻠㻚㻤㻡 㻠㻚㻡㻢 㻠㻚㻟㻥 㻠㻚㻡㻢 㻠㻚㻢㻢 㻜㻚㻠㻤 㻜㻚㻠㻢 㻜㻚㻠㻜 㻜㻚㻟㻡 㻜㻚㻟㻠 㻜㻚㻟㻞 㻝㻝 㻞㻜㻜㻤㻛㻝㻜㻛㻜㻥 㻡㻡 㻠㻣 㻣㻚㻠㻡 㻤㻚㻢㻥 㻝㻜㻚㻟㻜 㻝㻝㻚㻤㻝 㻝㻞㻚㻣㻢 㻝㻟㻚㻟㻠 㻠㻚㻜㻟 㻟㻚㻥㻣 㻟㻚㻥㻡 㻠㻚㻝㻢 㻠㻚㻞㻣 㻠㻚㻟㻞 㻜㻚㻡㻠 㻜㻚㻠㻢 㻜㻚㻟㻤 㻜㻚㻟㻡 㻜㻚㻟㻟 㻜㻚㻟㻞 㻝㻞 㻞㻜㻜㻤㻛㻝㻜㻛㻞㻠 㻢㻠 㻢㻞 㻡㻚㻠㻠 㻢㻚㻝㻤 㻢㻚㻢㻤 㻣㻚㻜㻟 㻣㻚㻜㻢 㻣㻚㻟㻟 㻟㻚㻠㻞 㻠㻚㻡㻡 㻡㻚㻜㻣 㻡㻚㻟㻠 㻡㻚㻠㻢 㻡㻚㻢㻢 㻜㻚㻢㻟 㻜㻚㻣㻠 㻜㻚㻣㻢 㻜㻚㻣㻢 㻜㻚㻣㻣 㻜㻚㻣㻣 㻝㻟 㻞㻜㻝㻜㻛㻜㻣㻛㻞㻥 㻣㻥 㻤㻡 㻡㻚㻞㻥 㻢㻚㻠㻥 㻣㻚㻜㻢 㻤㻚㻞㻜 㻥㻚㻜㻤 㻥㻚㻥㻤 㻢㻚㻞㻞 㻣㻚㻤㻣 㻤㻚㻣㻥 㻥㻚㻤㻥 㻝㻜㻚㻤㻥 㻝㻝㻚㻤㻤 㻝㻚㻝㻣 㻝㻚㻞㻝 㻝㻚㻞㻠 㻝㻚㻞㻝 㻝㻚㻞㻜 㻝㻚㻝㻥 㻝㻠 㻞㻜㻝㻜㻛㻜㻥㻛㻞㻤 㻢㻡 㻡㻠 㻤㻚㻡㻠 㻝㻜㻚㻞㻞 㻝㻝㻚㻡㻜 㻝㻞㻚㻢㻣 㻝㻟㻚㻠㻣 㻝㻟㻚㻤㻥 㻣㻚㻡㻢 㻣㻚㻠㻣 㻣㻚㻢㻢 㻣㻚㻤㻡 㻣㻚㻥㻝 㻣㻚㻥㻤 㻜㻚㻤㻥 㻜㻚㻣㻟 㻜㻚㻢㻣 㻜㻚㻢㻞 㻜㻚㻡㻥 㻜㻚㻡㻣 㻝㻡 㻞㻜㻝㻝㻛㻜㻣㻛㻜㻠 㻡㻣 㻢㻝 㻢㻚㻡㻜 㻤㻚㻡㻝 㻥㻚㻝㻥 㻥㻚㻟㻥 㻥㻚㻤㻥 㻥㻚㻥㻝 㻟㻚㻥㻣 㻡㻚㻝㻤 㻡㻚㻞㻡 㻡㻚㻜㻢 㻡㻚㻜㻡 㻡㻚㻝㻝 㻜㻚㻢㻝 㻜㻚㻢㻝 㻜㻚㻡㻣 㻜㻚㻡㻠 㻜㻚㻡㻝 㻜㻚㻡㻝 㻝㻢 㻞㻜㻝㻝㻛㻜㻣㻛㻝㻢 㻢㻝 㻡㻢 㻟㻚㻥㻡 㻠㻚㻥㻥 㻢㻚㻞㻠 㻣㻚㻟㻤 㻤㻚㻜㻠 㻤㻚㻡㻣 㻟㻚㻜㻢 㻟㻚㻢㻜 㻠㻚㻞㻠 㻠㻚㻤㻞 㻡㻚㻜㻥 㻡㻚㻟㻣 㻜㻚㻣㻣 㻜㻚㻣㻞 㻜㻚㻢㻤 㻜㻚㻢㻡 㻜㻚㻢㻟 㻜㻚㻢㻟 㻝㻣 㻞㻜㻝㻝㻛㻜㻤㻛㻝㻠 㻝㻜㻥 㻥㻞 㻝㻜㻚㻤㻢 㻝㻜㻚㻤㻡 㻝㻞㻚㻡㻞 㻝㻟㻚㻠㻥 㻝㻠㻚㻜㻥 㻝㻠㻚㻠㻜 㻣㻚㻥㻥 㻢㻚㻠㻥 㻢㻚㻟㻜 㻢㻚㻝㻡 㻢㻚㻝㻢 㻢㻚㻝㻜 㻜㻚㻣㻠 㻜㻚㻢㻜 㻜㻚㻡㻜 㻜㻚㻠㻢 㻜㻚㻠㻠 㻜㻚㻠㻞 㻝㻤 㻞㻜㻝㻝㻛㻜㻥㻛㻜㻢 㻠㻜㻠 㻡㻟㻠 㻞㻠㻚㻝㻠 㻟㻜㻚㻥㻠 㻟㻣㻚㻟㻣 㻠㻜㻚㻣㻤 㻠㻟㻚㻞㻜 㻠㻠㻚㻣㻠 㻝㻤㻚㻞㻤 㻝㻤㻚㻞㻜 㻞㻜㻚㻥㻝 㻞㻝㻚㻥㻣 㻞㻟㻚㻜㻡 㻞㻟㻚㻤㻣 㻜㻚㻣㻢 㻜㻚㻡㻥 㻜㻚㻡㻢 㻜㻚㻡㻠 㻜㻚㻡㻟 㻜㻚㻡㻟 ᖹᆒ 㻜㻚㻤㻜 㻜㻚㻣㻤 㻜㻚㻣㻢 㻜㻚㻣㻡 㻜㻚㻣㻡 㻜㻚㻣㻢 䝢䞊䜽
ὶ㔞 䠄㼙㻟㻛㼟䠅
㻾㻹㻿㻱䠄㼙㻟㻛㼟䠅䠖ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡䐟 㻾㻹㻿㻱䠄㼙㻟㻛㼟䠅䠖ὶฟ⟬ᐃᘧ䐠 ㄗᕪ䛾ẚ䠄㻩䐠㾂䐟䠅
䝸䞊䝗䝍䜲䝮 䝸䞊䝗䝍䜲䝮 䝸䞊䝗䝍䜲䝮
᪥䠄䝢䞊䜽 ὶ㔞ฟ⌧᪥䠅
⥲㞵㔞 䠄㼙㼙䠅
ᅗ ὥỈண ⤖ᯝ㸬
2011ᖺ9᭶5᪥㹼6᪥ࡢὥỈ㸬ᕥ㸸ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜ㸪
ྑ㸸ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜ㸬
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 ὶ㔞䠄m3/s䠅
⤒㐣㛫䠄h䠅
࠙ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࠚ
ᐇ ὶ㔞 ண ὶ㔞
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36
⤒㐣㛫䠄h䠅
࠙ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ࠚ
ᐇ ὶ㔞 ண ὶ㔞
⾲ ᮍ▱ᐃᩘࡢ᥈⣴⤖ᯝ㸦㞷ࢲ࣒㸪㔠ᒣࢲ࣒㸧㸬
ὶᇦ
㼒㼏 㼒㼎
㞷䝎䝮 ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ 䃐㻩㻜㻚㻜㻜㻢㻤 㻜㻚㻣㻝 㻝㻥㻜
ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ 㼒㻩㻜㻚㻟㻝 㻜㻚㻥㻣 㻞㻟㻡
㔠ᒣ䝎䝮 ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ 䃐㻩㻜㻚㻜㻜㻟㻤 㻜㻚㻤㻤 㻝㻢㻜
ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡ 㼒㻩㻜㻚㻞㻝 㻝㻚㻝㻠 㻝㻣㻡
ィ⟬᪉ἲ ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ䛾ᮍ▱ᐃ
ᩘ䠄䃐䠅䠈ὶฟ⋡䠄㼒䠅
ὶฟ䝰䝕䝹䛾ᮍ▱ᐃᩘ
࡞ࡗࡓ㸬୍᪉㸪㔠ᒣࢲ࣒࡛ࡣẚࡀ1.0ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿሙྜࡣ
࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢ㸪ᖹᆒⓗࡣ1%㹼10%⛬ᗘࡢㄗᕪࡢῶᑡࡀぢ
ࡽࢀࡓ㸬௨ୖ㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡣ㸪ࡢὶᇦ࠾࠸࡚ࡶண ⢭ᗘྥୖຠᯝࡀぢࡽࢀࡓ㸬
ࡲࡵ
ᮏㄽᩥ࡛ࡣ㸪⌧ᴗ࡛ࡢὥỈண ࡢ⢭ᗘྥୖࢆ┠ⓗ㸪 ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞╔┠ࡋ࡚ᡭἲࡢᨵⰋࢆヨࡳࡓ㸬ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖
ᯝࡣ௨ୗࡢ࠾ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
1) 㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ὶᇦỈᚠ⎔ィ⟬ࢆ࠾ࡋ㸪ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆྵ
ࡴ୍㐃ࡢỈᩥㅖ㔞ࢆໟᣓⓗ᥎ᐃࡋࡓ㸬
2) ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ᇶ࡙࠸࡚ࠎ้ࠎኚࡍࡿὶฟ⋡ࢆ
⟬ᐃࡍࡿᶵ⬟ࢆ⤌㎸ࢇࡔὶฟࣔࢹࣝࢆసᡂࡋ㸪㇏ᖹ ᓙࢲ࣒ࡢࣁࢻࣟࢢࣛࣇࢆ⌧ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪ὶ ฟ⋡ࢆᅛᐃࡍࡿሙྜẚ࡚⌧ᛶࡀᏳᐃࡍࡿࡇ
ࡀࢃࡗࡓ㸬
3) ㇏ᖹᓙࢲ࣒ࢆᑐ㇟㸪ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧ࠾ࡼࡧᅛᐃὶฟ
⋡ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓὥỈண ࡢࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬 ண 㞵㔞ࡣᐇ 㞵㔞ࢆ࠼㸪ࣔࢹࣝ⮬యࡢᛶ⬟ࢆ
ホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪6㛫ඛࡲ࡛ࡢண ㄗᕪࡣ㸪ᅛ ᐃὶฟ⋡ࢆ⏝࠸ࡿሙྜࡢㄗᕪẚ㸪20%⛬ᗘῶᑡࡍ
ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡗࡓ㸬
4) ᡭἲࡢ୍⯡ᛶࢆ᳨ドࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ูࡢ 2 ὶᇦ࡛ྠᵝࡢ ὥỈࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪ຠᯝࡢ
ࡁࡉࡣ␗࡞ࡿࡶࡢࡢ㸪ண ㄗᕪࡀῶᑡࡍࡿࡇࡀ
ࢃࡗࡓ㸬
௨ୖ㸪ὶᇦ㈓␃㔞ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᮏᡭἲࡣ㸪ὥỈࡢ⌧
ண ࡢ⢭ᗘྥୖຠᯝࡀ࠶ࡿࡶࡢ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬ᚋ㸪
⼥㞷ὥỈࢆᑐ㇟᳨ウࢆ㐍ࡵࡿࡶ㸪ᐇ㐠⏝ࢆ┠ᣦ ࡋ࡚࠸ࡁࡓ࠸㸬
ㅰ㎡㸸ᮏ◊✲ࡢ୍㒊ࡣᏛ⾡◊✲ຓᡂᇶ㔠ຓᡂᇶ㔠ᇶ♏◊
✲㸦C㸧㸦ㄢ㢟␒ྕ23560602㸧࠾ࡼࡧᅜᅵ㏻┬Ἑᕝ◁㜵 ᢏ⾡◊✲㛤Ⓨබເ㸦Ỉ㜵⅏ᢏ⾡ศ㔝㸧ࡢຓᡂࢆཷࡅࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪ᮏ◊✲ࢆ㐍ࡵࡿ࠶ࡓࡾ㸪ᾏ㐨㛤Ⓨᒁࡽࢹ࣮
ࢱᥦ౪➼࡛༠ຊ࠸ࡓࡔ࠸ࡓ㸬ࡇࡇグࡋ࡚ㅰពࢆ⾲ࡍ㸬
ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
1) ᪥㔝ᖿ㞝㸸Ỉᩥὶฟ⣔ண ࡢ࣐࣭࢝ࣝࣥࣇࣝࢱ࣮⌮ㄽ ࡢ㐺⏝㸪ᅵᮌᏛㄽᩥሗ࿌㞟㸪➨221ྕ㸪pp.39-47㸪1974㸬 2) ❧ᕝᗣே㸪㡲⸨⣧୍㸪᳝ⴥᬕ㸪ⴙ᫂㸪࣒࢟ࢫ࣑ࣥࣥ㸸
⢏Ꮚࣇࣝࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓἙᕝỈࡢᐇ㛫ண ᡭἲࡢ㛤Ⓨ㸪 ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨55ᕳ㸪2011㸬
3) ཱྀ⃝ᑑ㸪୰ὠᕝㄔ㸸⇕࣭Ỉᨭࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓὶᇦࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡢ
✚㞷Ⓨᩓ㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ㸪ᾏ㐨㛤Ⓨᅵᮌ◊✲ᡤ᭶ሗ㸪No.588㸪 pp.19-38㸪2002㸬
4) ┘ಟ ᾏ㐨㛤Ⓨᒁᘓタ㒊Ἑᕝィ⏬ㄢ㸪⦅㞟࣭Ⓨ⾜ ㈈ᅋἲ
ேᾏ㐨Ἑᕝ㜵⅏◊✲ࢭࣥࢱ࣮㸸▼⊁ᕝὶᇦࣛࣥࢻࢫࢣ࣮
ࣉሗ㸪1997㸬
5) ᒣ⏣ṇ㸪ᒣᓮᖾ㸸ὶᇦ࠾ࡅࡿಖỈ⬟ࡢศᕸࡀὶฟ
࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡘ࠸࡚㸪➨27ᅇỈ⌮ㅮ₇㸪pp.385-392㸪1983㸬 6) ㈈ᅋἲே ᾏ㐨Ἑᕝ㜵⅏◊✲ࢭࣥࢱ࣮࣭◊✲ᡤ㸸ᐇ㊶ὶฟ
ゎᯒࢮ࣑ ㅮ⩏ࢸ࢟ࢫࢺ⦅㸪pp.7(1)-7(32)㸪2006㸬
7) ⮻㇂⚽㸪୰ὠᕝㄔ㸪ᫍΎ㸸✚㞷ᾐ㏱ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᐇ⏝ⓗ⼥
㞷ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢ㛤Ⓨ㸪Ỉᩥ࣭Ỉ㈨※Ꮫㄅ㸪Vol.20㸪No.2㸪 pp.93-105㸪2007㸬
8) Nash, J.E. and Sutcliffe, J.V.㸸River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I ̿ A discussion of principles ̿㸪J. of Hydrology㸪Vol.10㸪pp.282-290㸪1970㸬
9) ࠝ┘ಟࠞᅜᅵ㏻┬࣭ᾏ㐨㛤Ⓨᒁᘓタ㒊Ἑᕝ⟶⌮ㄢ㸪ࠝ⦅
㞟࣭Ⓨ⾜ࠞ㸦㈈㸧ᾏ㐨Ἑᕝ㜵⅏◊✲ࢭࣥࢱ࣮࣭◊✲ᡤ㸸ࠕᐇ
㛫ὥỈண ࢩࢫࢸ࣒⌮ㄽࠖゎㄝ᭩㸪396p.㸪2004㸬 㸦 ཷ㸧
⾲ 㞷ࢲ࣒࠾ࡼࡧ㔠ᒣࢲ࣒࠾ࡅࡿὶ㔞ண ࡢㄗᕪ㸦506(㸧㸬
㻝㛫 㻞㛫 㻟㛫 㻠㛫 㻡㛫 㻢㛫 㻝㛫 㻞㛫 㻟㛫 㻠㛫 㻡㛫 㻢㛫 㻝㛫 㻞㛫 㻟㛫 㻠㛫 㻡㛫 㻢㛫
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ᇦ
㻾㻹㻿㻱䠄㼙㻟㻛㼟䠅䠖ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡䐟 㻾㻹㻿㻱䠄㼙㻟㻛㼟䠅䠖ὶฟ⟬ᐃᘧ䐠 ㄗᕪ䛾ẚ䠄㻩䐠㾂䐟䠅
䝸䞊䝗䝍䜲䝮 䝸䞊䝗䝍䜲䝮 䝸䞊䝗䝍䜲䝮
㞷 䝎 䝮
㔠 ᒣ 䝎 䝮
⥲㞵㔞 䠄㼙㼙䠅
䝢䞊䜽 ὶ㔞 䠄㼙㻟㻛㼟䠅
᪥䠄䝢䞊䜽 ὶ㔞ฟ⌧᪥䠅
ᅗ ὶฟ⋡⟬ᐃᘧࡢ≉ᛶ㸬
ᕥ㸸㞷ࢲ࣒㸪ྑ㸸㔠ᒣࢲ࣒㸬
㻜㻚㻜 㻜㻚㻞 㻜㻚㻠 㻜㻚㻢 㻜㻚㻤 㻝㻚㻜
㻜 㻝㻜㻜 㻞㻜㻜 㻟㻜㻜 㻠㻜㻜
ὶฟ⋡
⣼ຍ㞵㔞 㻔㼙㼙㻕 䛆㞷䝎䝮䛇
0.31䠄ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡䠅 ɲ=0.0068
㻿㻝㻩㻠㻜㼙㼙 㻿㻝㻩㻞㻜㼙㼙 㻿㻝㻩㻜㼙㼙
㻜 㻝㻜㻜 㻞㻜㻜 㻟㻜㻜 㻠㻜㻜
⣼ຍ㞵㔞 㻔㼙㼙㻕 䛆㔠ᒣ䝎䝮䛇
㻿㻝㻩㻠㻜㼙㼙 㻿㻝㻩㻞㻜㼙㼙 㻿㻝㻩㻜㼙㼙
0.21䠄ᅛᐃὶฟ⋡䠅 ɲ=0.0038
