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ᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ޔ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߣㄘ᧛ㇺᏒ㑆ഭ௛ ⒖േ ̆࠾ࡘ࡯ࠤࠗࡦࠫࠕࡦ࡮ࡕ࠺࡞ߣࡂ࡝ࠬ࡮࠻࠳ࡠ࡯ࡕ࠺࡞ߩⲢวߦࠃࠆ㐿⊒ࡑࠢࡠࡕ࠺࡞ ߩ৻଀̆ 㘵㊁శᶈ 㧝ޔߪߓ߼ߦ ㄭᐕޔᣂ⥝࿖⚻ᷣߩ⊒ዷ߿਎⇇⚻ᷣߢߩᓇ㗀ജߩჇᄢߦߪ⋡ࠍ⷗ᒛࠆ߽ߩ߇޽ࠆޕႎ㆏ ߦࠃࠆߣޔᣂ⥝࿖ߩઍฬ⹖ߢ޽ࠆ BRICs ߪ 2000 ᐕ㨪2008 ᐕߩ਎⇇ߩ GDP ᚑ㐳ߩ 46.8% ࠍභ߼ࠆ߇ޔవㅴ࿖ߩઍ⴫ߢ޽ࠆ G7 ߪ 19.8㧑ߒ߆භ߼ߡ޿ߥ޿ޕߎߩ㑆ߩ਎⇇⚻ᷣߩᚑ 㐳ߩ⚂ඨಽ߇ BRICs ⻉࿖ߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕߎࠇ߇ 2008 ᐕ㨪2014 ᐕߢߪ BRICs ⻉࿖ߪ 61.3%ࠍභ߼ޔG7 ߪ 12.8%ߦߥࠆߣ޿߁㧔Financial Times ߩ 2010 ᐕ 1 ᦬ 18 ᣣઃߌ․㓸 ⸥੐㧕ޕ ߐࠄߦޔ⃻࿷ߩ਎⇇⚻ᷣෂᯏ߆ࠄߩ࿁ᓳㆊ⒟ߦ㑐ߔࠆ᭽ޘߥႎ㆏1ߥߤ߆ࠄޔᣂ⥝࿖ߪవ ㅴ࿖ࠃࠅ߽ᣧߊᕆㅦߦ࿁ᓳߒޔ߹ߐߦ㨂ሼ࿁ᓳߩ᭽⋧ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߽ࠊ߆ࠆޕߟ߹ࠅޔᣂ⥝ ࿖߇਎⇇⚻ᷣߩᚑ㐳ࠍ‧ᒁߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ߎߩࠃ߁ߥ଀߇␜ߔࠃ߁ߦޔ⃻࿷ߩ਎⇇⚻ᷣࠍ⠨߃ࠆߣ߈ޔᣂ⥝࿖ߪߘߩ㊀ⷐᕈࠍჇߒ ߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔᣂ⥝ㅜ਄࿖ߪవㅴ࿖ߣ⚻ᷣ᭴ㅧߩ㕙ߢ᳿ቯ⊛ߦ⇣ߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕߘࠇߪޔ⚻ᷣߦ භ߼ࠆㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩᄢ߈ߐߩ㆑޿ߢ޽ࠆޕᣂ⥝ㅜ਄࿖ߪవㅴ࿖ߦᲧߴߡޔㄘᬺ߇භ߼ࠆഀว ߇ᄢ߈ߊޔߎߩ㆑޿ߪ⚻ᷣಽᨆߔࠆ਄ߢ߽ߣߡ߽ᄢ߈޿ޕ ଀߃߫ޔGDP ߦභ߼ࠆㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩᲧ₸ࠍ␜ߒߚߩ߇ਅߩ⴫㧝ߢ޽ࠆ 

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15 13 11 11㩷 ࠗࡦ࠼

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23 19 18 18㩷 ࠗࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕ

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16 13 14 14㩷 ࡠࠪࠕ

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6 6 5 n.a㩷 ࡌ࠻࠽ࡓ

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25 21 20 n.a㩷 ⴫㧝 GDP ߦභ߼ࠆㄘᬺߩᲧ₸

಴ౖ㧦World Development Indicators database, April 2009.

ߎߩ⴫߆ࠄޔᣂ⥝ฦ࿖ߪ㜞޿⚻ᷣᚑ㐳ࠍ㆐ᚑߒߥ߇ࠄ߽ޔGDP ߦභ߼ࠆㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩᲧ₸߇ ᄢ߈޿ߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕਛ࿖ߪ 10㧑ㄭ޿ᚑ㐳₸ߢ޽ࠆ߇ޔㄘᬺᲧ₸߽ 10㧑⒟ᐲ޽ࠆޕࠗࡦ࠼

1 ଀߃߫ޔ”Briefing Emerging markets and recession”, The Economist, January 2nd 2010, 24-26ppߥߤޕ

  

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߽ਛ࿖ߦᰴߋ㜞ᚑ㐳ߢ޽ࠅߥ߇ࠄ߽ޔㄘᬺᲧ₸߇ 20㧑⒟ߢ޽ࠆ2ޕ  ߐࠄߦޔᣂ⥝ㅜ਄࿖ߩ߅ߌࠆ✚ഭ௛ੱญߦභ߼ࠆㄘᬺᓥ੐⠪ߩഀวࠍ␜ߒߚߩ߇⴫ 2 ߢ ޽ࠆޕ  㩷 2005 2006 2007 ਛ࿖

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಴ౖ㧦ADB Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2008.  ߎߩ⴫߆ࠄޔਛ࿖ߢߪᐕޘࠊߕ߆ߥ߇ࠄᲧ₸ߪૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔߘࠇߢ߽✚ഭ௛ੱญߩ ߁ߜ⚂ 4 ഀ߇ㄘᬺߦᓥ੐ߒߡ߅ࠅޔࠗࡦ࠼ߢ߽ඨಽએ਄߇ㄘᬺߦᓥ੐ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚޔࠗ ࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕߢ 4 ഀޔࡌ࠻࠽ࡓߢ 5 ഀ߶ߤߣ㜞޿Ყ₸ߢ޽ࠆޕߎߩࠃ߁ߦᣂ⥝ㅜ਄࿖ߪᄙߊ ߩഭ௛⠪߇ㄘᬺߦᓥ੐ߒߡ߅ࠅޔㄘᬺᵴേ߇৻࿖⚻ᷣߣᷓ޿㑐ଥߦ޽ࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ᣂ⥝ㅜ਄࿖ߩ㊀ⷐᕈ߇਎⇇⚻ᷣߢჇߒߡ޿ࠆ⃻࿷ޔߎࠇࠄߩ࿖ޘࠍಽᨆߔࠆߎߣ߿ᣂ⥝ ㅜ਄࿖ߣవㅴ࿖ߩ㑆ߩࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ⋧੕ଐሽ㑐ଥࠍಽᨆߔࠆߎߣߩᔅⷐᕈߪ㜞޿ޕߘߩ㓙ޔ ᣂ⥝ㅜ਄࿖߇వㅴ࿖ߣ⇣ߥࠅޔㄘᬺㇱ㐷߇⚻ᷣߢ㊀ⷐߥ࿾૏ࠍභ߼ߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ⠨ᘦߒߡޔ ⎇ⓥߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕ଀߃߫ޔਛ࿖ޔࠗࡦ࠼ߥߤߢߪ৻࿖ㅢ⽻ଔ୯ߩᄌേߪᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߛߌ ߢߥߊޔᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߦഭ௛ࠍଏ⛎ߒߡ޿ࠆㄘ᧛߿ㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩᄌൻࠍ߽ߚࠄߒޔᓟ⠪ߪవㅴ࿖ ߦߪߥ޿ലᨐߢ޽ࠆޕߒ߆ߒޔᣢሽߩࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ⎇ⓥߢߪ㊄ⲢᏒ႐ߩ㆑޿ߦ⌕⋡ߒߚ⎇ⓥ ߇ᄢᄙᢙߢ޽ࠅޔㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߪ߶ߣࠎߤήⷞߐࠇߡ߅ࠅޔડᬺⴕേߪ⵾ㅧᬺຠࠍ↢↥ߔࠆᎿ ᬺㇱ㐷ࠍᗐቯߒߡ޿ࠆ3ޕ ߹ߚޔਛ࿖߿ࠗࡦ࠼ߢߪޔㇺᏒൻ߇ㅴⴕߒߡ޿ࠆޕߎߩ 2 ࿖߇ߤߩߊࠄ޿ㇺᏒൻ߇ㅴⴕ ߒߡ޿ࠆ߆ࠍ␜ߒߚߩ߇⴫ 3 ߢ޽ࠆޕ  㩷 1990㩷 1995㩷 2000 2005 2010 2015㩷 2020 ਛ࿖㩷 27.4 31.4 35.8 40.4 44.9 49.2 53.2 ࠗࡦ࠼㩷 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 30.1 31.9 34.3 ⴫ 3 ਛ࿖ߣࠗࡦ࠼ߩㇺᏒൻ₸ߩផ⒖

಴ౖ㧦࿖ㅪ World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision.

 ߎߩ⴫߆ࠄ᣿ࠄ߆ߥࠃ߁ߦޔਛ࿖ߪ 1990 ᐕߩㇺᏒൻ₸ߪ⚂ 27㧑ߢ޽ࠆ߇ޔ2005 ᐕߦߪ

2 ߜߥߺߦޔᣣᧄߪ 07 ᐕߢ⚂ 1㧑ߢ޽ࠆޕ

3 ଀߃߫ޔAgenor and Montiel(2008)ߢߪㄘᬺࠍขࠅᛒߞߡ޿ࠆ┨ߪߥ޿ޕ
   

⚂ 4 ഀߣߥࠅޔ2015 ᐕߦߪ⚂ 5 ഀߦߥࠆߣ޿߁ᕆỗߥㅴዷ߇੍ᗐߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕࠗࡦ࠼߽ห ᭽ߦਛ࿖߶ߤߢߪߥ޿߇ޔ2005 ᐕߦߪ⚂ 28㧑ߩᲧ₸߇ޔ2010 ᐕߦߪ 3 ഀߦߥࠆߣ੍᷹ߐ ࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚޔਛ࿖ߢߪㇺᏒㇱߢߩᄬᬺ߽໧㗴ߦߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕ౏ᑼ⛔⸘ߦ᜚ࠇ߫ޔ2009 ᐕߩㇺᏒㇱߢߩᄬᬺ₸ߪ 4.6㧑ߢ޽ࠆ߇ޔߎࠇߪㇺᏒㇱߢᄬᬺ⠪ߣߒߡ⊓㍳ߒߡ޿ࠆੱߩߺ ߢ޽ࠆޕㇺᏒߦᚭ☋ࠍ᦭ߒߥ޿಴Ⓙ߉ഭ௛⠪╬ࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆߣᄬᬺ₸ߪ 15㧑ߦ㆐ߒߡ޿ࠆߣ ߽⸒ࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ  ߐࠄߦޔ਎⇇ੱญߪ 2050 ᐕ߹ߢߦ 96 ంੱߦ㆐ߒޔߘߩᄢㇱಽߪ⊒ዷㅜ਄࿖ߦࠃࠆ߽ߩ ߢ޽ࠆߣߩផ⸘ࠍ࿖ㅪ߇⊒⴫ߒߚޕ㧔2013 ᐕ 6 ᦬ 14 ᣣઃᣣᧄ⚻ᷣᣂ⡞ᄕೀ㧕ޕ߹ߚޔਛ࿖ޔ ࠲ࠗߥߤߩᄙߊߩᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖ߢߪਛ㑆ጀߩᶖ⾌᜛ᄢߣ޿߁ⷰὐ߆ࠄᦨૐ⾓㊄ࠍᒁ߈਄ߍ ߡ޿ࠆޕ એ਄ߩࠃ߁ߥ⁁ᴫࠍ〯߹߃ߡޔᣂ⥝࿖ߢࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷߿ഭ௛ੱญߩჇടޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ ᒁ߈਄ߍ߇ᓥ᧪ߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߩߺߥࠄߕޔㄘᬺㇱ㐷߿ㇺᏒᄬᬺ╬ߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍಽᨆߔࠆߎ ߣ߽㊀ⷐߢ޽ࠆޕߒߚ߇ߞߡޔ⃻࿷ઍ⴫⊛ߥ㐿᡼ࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣࡕ࠺࡞ߢ޽ࠆ Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995)ߩ Redux ࡕ࠺࡞ߦㄘᬺㇱ㐷ࠍዉ౉ߒߚࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ᭴▽ߒߡޔ਄⸥ߩ⺖㗴ࠍಽᨆ ߔࠆޕߎࠇ߇ᧄⓂߩ⋡⊛ߢ޽ࠆޕ

 ౕ૕⊛ߦߪޔObstfeld and Rogoff (1995)ࠃࠅ߽න⚐ߥ᭴ㅧࠍ᦭ߒߡ޿ࠆ Corsetti and Pesenti(2001)ߩࡕ࠺࡞ߦㄘᬺㇱ㐷ࠍዉ౉ߔࠆޕߐࠄߦㄘ᧛ߣㇺᏒ㑆ߩഭ௛⒖േߪ Harris and Todaro(1970)ߩࡕ࠺࡞ࠍዉ౉ߔࠆޕߎߩࡕ࠺࡞ߦࠃࠅޔ◲ẖߥᒻߢㇺᏒᄬᬺࠍዉ౉ߔ ࠆߎߣ߇น⢻ߣߥࠆޕ એਅߢߪޔᧄⓂߢߩࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ◲නߦ⺑᣿ߔࠆޕᧄࡕ࠺࡞ߪേቇ 2 ࿖ 2 ⽷ࡕ࠺࡞ߢ޽ࠆޕ2 ࿖ߪ⥄࿖㧔H㧕ߣᄖ࿖㧔F㧕ߢ޽ࠅޔ2 ⽷ߪᎿᬺຠ㧔M ⽷㧕ߣㄘ↥ຠ㧔A ⽷㧕ߢ޽ࠆޕᶖ⾌ ⠪ߪ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩਔ࿖ߢ↢↥ߐࠇࠆ M ⽷ߣ A ⽷߆ࠄߥࠆ✚ᶖ⾌ߣታ⾰⽻ᐊᱷ㜞߆ࠄല↪ࠍ ᓧࠆޕߘߩല↪㑐ᢙࠍ⇣ᤨὐ㑆ߩ੍▚೙⚂ߩਅߢᦨᄢߦߔࠆࠃ߁ߦ✚ᶖ⾌ߣታ⾰⽻ᐊᱷ㜞 ࠍㆬ߱ޕM ⽷↢↥⠪ޔA ⽷↢↥⠪ߪߣ߽ߦ↢↥ⷐ⚛ߣߒߡഭ௛ߩߺࠍ૶↪ߒߡޔ෼ⓠ৻ቯ ߩ↢↥ᛛⴚߩਅߢޔ↢↥ࠍⴕ߁ޕߎߩߣ߈ޔ೑Ả࠯ࡠ᧦ઙ߆ࠄޔ⽷ଔᩰߣ⾓㊄ߪ╬ߒߊߥ ࠆޕ߹ߚޔM ⽷↢↥ߪㇺᏒߢⴕࠊࠇߡޔA ⽷↢↥ߪㄘ᧛ߢⴕࠊࠇߡޔਔ࿾ၞ㑆ߩഭ௛⒖േ ߦ㑐ߒߡߪޔࡂ࡝ࠬ࡮࠻࠳ࡠ࡯ߩ઒ቯ4ࠍዉ౉ߒߡޔㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩ⾓㊄ߪㇺᏒᦼᓙ⾓㊄ߦ╬ߒ ߊߥࠆޕ᡽ᐭߪ⥄りߩ࿖ߢ↢↥ߐࠇࠆ M ⽷ߣ A ⽷ߦߩߺᡰ಴ߒߡޔᶏᄖߢ↢↥ߐࠇࠆ⽷ߦ ߪᡰ಴ߒߥ޿ޕߘߩᡰ಴ߪᶖ⾌⠪߆ࠄߩ lump-sum ߥ⒢㊄ߣ⽻ᐊ⊒ⴕ⋉ߢ߹߆ߥࠊࠇࠆߣ ߔࠆޕ ߎߩ㐿⊒ࡑࠢࡠࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ߡޔࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷߿ഭ௛ੱญߩჇടޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߩ ലᨐࠍಽᨆߒߚޕᧄⓂߢߪࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߪޔ੍ᦼߖߑࠆᕡਭ⊛ߥ⽻ᐊଏ⛎ߩᄌൻߣ᡽ᐭ ᡰ಴ߩᄌൻߢ޽ࠆޕ߹ߚޔ૗ࠄ߆ߩⷐ࿃ߢㄘ᧛ㇱ㐷ߩ⾓㊄߇⎬⋥⊛޽ࠆᦼ㑆߇޽ࠅޔߘࠇ ࠍ⍴ᦼߣߔࠆޕߘߩᓟߦᣂߒ޿ቯᏱ⁁ᘒߦ⺞ᢛߐࠇࠆޕߘࠇࠍ㐳ᦼߣߔࠆޕ㐳ᦼߩቯᏱ⁁

4 _{Harris and Todaro(1970)}ߦߒߚ߇޿ޔᧄⓂߢ߽Ꮏᬺㇱ㐷ߩ⾓㊄ߪᦨૐ⾓㊄᳓Ḱߢ࿕ቯߐ ࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ

ᘒߦ߅ߌࠆಽᨆߩലᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚߩ߇ޔ⴫ 4 ߆ࠄ⴫ 6 ߢ޽ࠆ5ޕ  㩷 ㊄Ⲣ✭๺╷㩷  㩷 ⥄࿖㩷 ᄖ࿖㩷 ฬ⋡ὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻㩷 㧗㩷 㧙㩷 ⥄࿖‛ଔ᳓Ḱ㩷 㧗㩷 㧙㩷 ⥄࿖ㄘᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 0㩷 0㩷 ⥄࿖Ꮏᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 㧗㩷 r㩷 ⥄࿖ㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸㩷 㧙㩷 r㩷 ੤ᤃ᧦ઙ㩷 㧙㩷 㧗㩷 ⴫ 4 㐳ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆ㊄Ⲣ᡽╷ߩലᨐ  㩷 ᜛ᄢ⊛⽷᡽᡽╷㩷  㩷 ⥄࿖㩷 ᄖ࿖㩷  㩷 ㄘᬺຠᡰ಴ Ꮏᬺຠᡰ಴ ㄘᬺຠᡰ಴ Ꮏᬺຠᡰ಴㩷 ฬ⋡ὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻㩷 0㩷 0㩷 0㩷 0㩷 ⥄࿖‛ଔ᳓Ḱ㩷 㧗㩷 㧗㩷 㧗㩷 㧗㩷 ⥄࿖ㄘᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 㧗㩷 㧙㩷 0㩷 0㩷 ⥄࿖Ꮏᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 r㩷 㧗㩷 r㩷 r㩷 ⥄࿖ㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸㩷 㧙㩷 㧙㩷 r㩷 r㩷 ੤ᤃ᧦ઙ㩷 㧗㩷 㧗㩷 㧙㩷 㧙㩷 ⴫ 5 㐳ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆ⽷᡽᡽╷ߩലᨐ  㩷 ✚ഭ௛ߩჇട ᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹  㩷 ⥄࿖㩷 ᄖ࿖㩷 ⥄࿖㩷 ᄖ࿖㩷 ฬ⋡ὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻㩷 0㩷 0㩷 0㩷 0㩷 ⥄࿖‛ଔ᳓Ḱ㩷 㧙 㧙 㧗 㧗 ⥄࿖ㄘᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 㧗 0 0 0 ⥄࿖Ꮏᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 r r 㧙 r ⥄࿖ㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸㩷 㧗 r 㧗 㧙 ੤ᤃ᧦ઙ㩷 㧗 㧙 㧙 㧗 ⴫ 6 㐳ᦼߩ߅ߌࠆ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߣᦨૐ⾓㊄਄᣹ߩലᨐ 5 ᧄⓂߩࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߪኻ⒓⊛ߢ޽ࠆߩߢޔ⥄࿖ߩലᨐߩߺࠍ᣿␜ߔࠆޕ
     

ᰴߦޔㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩ⾓㊄߇⎬⋥⊛ߢ޽ࠆ⍴ᦼߢߩലᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚߩ߇⴫ 7ޔ⴫ 8 ߢ޽ࠆޕߥ ߅ޔ⍴ᦼߦ߅޿ߡ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߩㄘᬺຠᡰ಴ߩჇടߪ⥄࿖ߩㄘᬺ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆߩߺߢ޽ ࠅޔ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߩᎿᬺຠᡰ಴ߩჇടߪ⥄࿖ߩᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆߩߺߢ޽ࠆޕ  㩷 ㊄Ⲣ✭๺╷㩷  㩷 ⥄࿖㩷 ᄖ࿖㩷 ฬ⋡ὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻㩷 㧗㩷 㧙㩷 ⥄࿖ㄘᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 㧗㩷 r㩷 ⥄࿖Ꮏᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 㧗㩷 r㩷 ⥄࿖ㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸㩷 0㩷 0㩷 ੤ᤃ᧦ઙ㩷 㧙㩷 㧗㩷 ⴫ 7 ⍴ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆ㊄Ⲣ᡽╷ߩലᨐ  㩷 ✚ഭ௛ߩჇട ᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹  㩷 ⥄࿖㩷 ᄖ࿖㩷 ⥄࿖ ᄖ࿖㩷 ฬ⋡ὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻㩷 0㩷 0㩷 0㩷 0㩷 ⥄࿖ㄘᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 䋫㩷 0㩷 0 0 ⥄࿖Ꮏᬺ↥಴㊂㩷 r r 䋭㩷 r㩷 ⥄࿖ㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸㩷 0 0 䋫㩷 0㩷 ੤ᤃ᧦ઙ㩷 䋫㩷 䋭㩷 䋭㩷 䋫㩷 ⴫ 8 ⍴ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߣᦨૐ⾓㊄਄᣹ߩലᨐ  ߎߎߢ⴫ 4 ߆ࠄ⴫ 8 ߹ߢߩ㧗ߪჇട㧔਄᣹㧕ޔ㧙ߪᷫዋ㧔ૐਅ㧕ࠍ⴫ߒޔrߪࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ ߩ୯ߦଐሽߒߡ㧗߿㧙ߦߥࠆߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆޕ  ⍴ᦼߣ㐳ᦼߩലᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚ⴫ 4 ߆ࠄ⴫ 8 ߹ߢߩ⚿ᨐ߆ࠄએਅߩߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕᦨೋߦޔ ⥄࿖ߩ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥࡑࠢࡠ᡽╷ߪ⥄࿖ߩㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍᡷༀߐߖࠆޕ৻⥸ߦޔᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖᡽ ᐭߪޔㇺᏒ૑᳃ะߌߦ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥࡑࠢࡠ᡽╷ࠍታᣉߔࠆ߇ޔᧄࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪߘߩ᦭ലᕈࠍⵣઃ ߌߡ޿ࠆޕ  ᰴߦޔᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩᒁ߈਄ߍߪޔߘߩ᡽ᐭߩᕁᖺㅢࠅߦߪ޿߆ߥ޿ ߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩᒁ߈਄ߍߪޔㇺᏒㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍᖡ ൻߐߖߡߒ߹߁ޕߐࠄߦޔߎߩ᡽╷ߪ‛ଔ᳓ḰࠍჇടߐߖߡߒ߹߁ߚ߼ޔ✚ᶖ⾌߽ᷫዋߒ ߡߒ߹߁ޕߟ߹ࠅޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩᒁ߈਄ߍߪޔ⚻ᷣో૕ߢߩᶖ⾌ߩჇടߦߪ⚿߮ߟ߆ߥ޿ޕ  ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪޔㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩ᜛ᄢߦነਈߔࠆ߇ޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍᖡൻߐߖߡߒ߹ ߁ޕㇺᏒㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪ߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ߪࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߦଐሽߒߡޔ৻ᗧߦ᳿ቯߢ߈ߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒޔ ႐วߦࠃߞߡߪޔㇺᏒㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪߇Ⴧടߒߚߦ߽߆߆ࠊࠄߕޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸߇਄᣹ߒߡߒ

߹߁ޕߘߩᗧ๧ߢߪޔᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆੱญߩჇടߪᔅߕߒ߽ᅢ߹ߒߊߥ޿ߎߣࠍ␜ ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ  ᧄⓂߩ᭴ᚑߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆޕ2 ▵ߢߪࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ⺑᣿ߒߡޔ3 ▵ߢቯᏱ⁁ᘒߦ߅ߌࠆࡑ ࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߩലᨐࠍಽᨆߔࠆޕ4 ▵ߢߪޔ⍴ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߩലᨐࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦ ߔࠆޕ5 ▵ߢಽᨆ⚿ᨐߣᣂ⥝㨯ㅜ਄࿖⚻ᷣ߳ߩࠗࡦࡊ࡝ࠤ࡯࡚ࠪࡦߦߟ޿ߡᬌ⸛ߒޔ6 ▵ߢ ߪ⚿⺰ߣ੹ᓟߩ⺖㗴ࠍㅀߴࠆޕ 㧞ޔࡕ࠺࡞  ᧄ▵ߢߪࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ⺑᣿ߔࠆޕή㒢ᦼ㑆ߩ 2 ࿖ 2 ⽷ࡕ࠺࡞ߢ޽ࠅޔ⥄࿖㧔H㧕ߣᄖ࿖㧔F㧕 ߢ޽ࠆޕ2 ⽷ߪᎿᬺ㧔M㧕⽷ߣㄘᬺ㧔A㧕⽷ߢ޽ࠅޔฦ࿖ߢߎߩ 2 ⽷ࠍ↢↥ߒߡ޿ࠆޕᧄࡕ ࠺࡞ߩ᭴ㅧߪ Corsetti and Pesenti(2001)ࠍ 2 ⽷ߦ᜛ᒛߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕએਅߢߪޔ㧞㧙㧝 ߢᶖ⾌⠪ࠍޔ㧞㧙㧞ߢ↢↥⠪ࠍޔ㧞㧙㧟ߢ᡽ᐭߣᏒ႐ဋⴧࠍಽᨆߔࠆޕ 㧞㧙㧝 ᶖ⾌⠪

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6 _{ᧄⓂߢߪ⾗↥ߣߒߡ⽻ᐊߩߺࠍ઒ቯߒߡ޿ࠆޕ࿖㓙᳃㑆⾉୫㧔ௌ೛㧕Ꮢ႐ߪή޿ߣߔࠆℂ} ↱ߪએਅߩ 2 ὐߢ޽ࠆޕ߭ߣߟߪᣂ⥝࿖ߢߪ෩ߒ޿⾗ᧄขᒁⷙ೙߿㊄ⲢᏒ႐ߩᧂ⊒㆐࡮ᧂ ᢛ஻ߥߤߦࠃࠅޔ࿖㓙ௌ೛Ꮢ႐ࠍ೑↪ߢ߈ߥ޿ޕ߽߁߭ߣߟߪ Corsetti and Pesenti(2001) ߢߪௌ೛Ꮢ႐ࠍዉ౉ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔဋⴧߢߪௌ೛଻᦭߇࠯ࡠߦߥࠆޕ

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                             㧔17㧕 ߟ߹ࠅ⾼⾈ജᐔଔ᧦ઙ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆޕ 㧞㧙㧞 ↢↥⠪ 

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࿖ߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߣㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩ↢↥ᛛⴚߪⷙᮨߦ㑐ߒߡ෼ⓠ৻ቯߢ޽ࠆߣߔࠆޕ↢↥ⷐ⚛ߪ ഭ௛ߩߺߢ޽ࠆߩߢޔ↥಴㊂ߣഭ௛㓹↪㊂ߪ╬ߒߊߥࠆޕߎߩߣ߈ޔ೑Ả࠯ࡠ᧦ઙࠃࠅޔ ଔᩰߣ⾓㊄ߪ╬ߒߊߥࠆޕߟ߹ࠅޔ

( )

( )

, H M M t t

P

H

=

w H

                            㧔18㧕

( )

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, H A A t t

P

H

=

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                             㧔19㧕

( )

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F

=

w F

                             㧔20㧕

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F

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                             㧔21㧕 ߎߎߢ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߩ⾓㊄ߪᦨૐ⾓㊄

w H

tM

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ޔ

w F

tM

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ߦ࿕ቯߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ7ޕ  ㇺᏒߣㄘ᧛ߩ㑆ߩഭ௛⒖േߦ㑐ߒߡޔࡂ࡝ࠬ࡮࠻࠳ࡠ࡯ߩ઒ቯࠍዉ౉ߔࠆޕㄘᬺ⾓㊄ߪ ᦼᓙㇺᏒ⾓㊄ߣ╬ߒߊߥࠆޕߒߚ߇ߞߡޔࡂ࡝ࠬ࡮࠻࠳ࡠ࡯᧦ઙߪ

( )

tM

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tM

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A t A t t

w k y k

w k

l k

y k

=

-

                           㧔22㧕 ߎߎߢޔ↥಴㊂ߣഭ௛㊂߇╬ߒ޿ߎߣߦᵈᗧߒߡޔഭ௛ߩ೙⚂᧦ઙߪ

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A

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M

( )

u

( )

t t t t

l k

=

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+

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+

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ߎߎߢ

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l k

㧦ㇺᏒᄬᬺ⠪ ߢ޽ࠆޕߎߎߢ㧔22㧕ࠍᄌᒻߔࠆߣ

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tM

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                             㧔23㧕 ߎߎߢ

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㧦ㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ ߢ޽ࠆޕ 㧞㧙㧟 ᡽ᐭߣ⽷Ꮢ႐ဋⴧ᧦ઙ  H ࿖᡽ᐭߩ੍▚೙⚂ߪ

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+

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=

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H

+

P

H G

H

            㧔24㧕 ߣߥࠅޔห᭽ߦ F ࿖᡽ᐭߩ੍▚೙⚂ߪ

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F

                                      㧔25㧕 ߎߎߢ

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k

࿖ߢ↢↥ߐࠇࠆᎿᬺຠ߳ߩ

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࿖᡽ᐭᡰ಴

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㧦

k

࿖ߢ↢↥ߐࠇࠆㄘᬺຠ߳ߩ

k

࿖᡽ᐭᡰ಴ ߟ߹ࠅޔฦ࿖᡽ᐭߪޔ⥄࿖ߢ↢↥ߐࠇࠆ⽷ߦߩߺᡰ಴ߔࠆޕ  ᰴߦ⽷Ꮢ႐ဋⴧ᧦ઙߦߟ޿ߡޔH ࿖ߢߪᎿᬺຠޔㄘᬺຠߘࠇߙࠇ

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               㧔26㧕

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                㧔27㧕 ߣߥࠆޕห᭽ߦ F ࿖ߢߪ

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               㧔28㧕
     

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                㧔29㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ 㧟 ቯᏱ⁁ᘒߦ߅ߌࠆࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ޔੱญჇടߣᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩലᨐ  એਅߢߪޔ೨▵ߩࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ⸃޿ߡ޿ߊޕᧄⓂߢߪࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߦߟ޿ߡޔ੍ᦼߖߑࠆ ᕡਭ⊛ߥ㊄Ⲣ᡽╷࡮⽷᡽᡽╷ߩᄌൻߩലᨐࠍಽᨆߔࠆޕ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߪኻ⒓⊛ߢ޽ࠆߩߢޔ ⥄࿖ߩലᨐߦಽᨆߩὶὐࠍวࠊߖࠆޕ ⚻ᷣߪᒰೋߩቯᏱ⁁ᘒ߆ࠄᆎ߹ࠆߣߒߡޔߘߩᄌᢙࠍ

X

₀ߣਅઃ߈ߩ 0 ߢ⴫ߔޕᰴߦ᡽╷ ᄌൻᓟߩᣂߒ޿ቯᏱ⁁ᘒߪ

X

ߣ਄ઃ߈ߩࡃ࡯ᄌᢙߢ⴫ߔޕ⍴ᦼᄌᢙߦߪ૗ߩශ߽ઃ߆ߥ޿ ߣߔࠆޕᧄ⺰ߢ⍴ᦼߣߪㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩ⾓㊄߇৻ቯߩᦼ㑆ߢ޽ࠅޔ1 ᦼ㑆ߩߺߢ޽ࠆߣߔࠆޕᧄ ▵ߢߪޔቯᏱ⁁ᘒޔߟ߹ࠅ㐳ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆ᡽╷ᄌൻߩലᨐࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒߡ޿ߊޕ᡽╷ᄌൻߩ ലᨐߪᄌൻ₸ࠍขࠆߎߣߢ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߔࠆޕᄌൻ₸ߪ

X

ߢ⴫ࠊߔߣߔࠆޕ  ߥ߅ޔ⴫⃻ߩ◲ଢᴺߣߒߡ

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ࠍ↪޿ࠆޕ  ᡽╷ലᨐࠍ⷗ࠆ೨ߦޔࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲

r

ߦߟ޿ߡ⺑᣿ߔࠆޕએਅߩ᡽╷ലᨐߩᱜ⽶ࠍ⺞ߴࠆ 㓙ޔ

r

߇㧝ࠃࠅᄢ߈޿߇ዊߐ޿߆߇᳿ቯ⊛ߦ㊀ⷐߛ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕએਅߢߪޔ޽ࠆ⽷ߩ㒢⇇ ല↪߇ઁߩ⽷ߩᶖ⾌㊂ߩჇടߦࠃࠅ਄᣹ߔࠆ߆ޔૐਅߔࠆ߆ߣ޿߁᭎ᔨࠍ↪޿ࠆޕߟ߹ࠅޔ ⵬ቢᕈߣઍᦧᕈߣ޿߁᭎ᔨߣ

r

ߩ㑐ଥࠍߺߡ޿ߊޕ ᧄࡕ࠺࡞ߢߪ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷߇޽ࠅޔ ߹ߚߘࠇߙࠇߩ࿖ౝߦㄘᬺຠߣᎿᬺຠߣ޿߁ 2 ⒳㘃ߩ⽷߇޽ࠆޕᦨೋߦޔ⥄࿖ߦ߅޿ߡ⥄ ࿖⽷ߩ㒢⇇ല↪߇ᄖ࿖⽷ߩᄌൻߦࠃࠅߤߩࠃ߁ߦߥࠆ߆ࠍ⺞ߴࠆߣޔ

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-ߣߥࠆޔᰴߦޔ⥄࿖ߦ߅޿ߡޔ⥄࿖Ꮏᬺຠߩ㒢⇇ല↪߇⥄࿖ㄘ↥ຠߩᄌൻߦࠃࠅߤߩࠃ߁ ߦᄌൻߔࠆ߆ࠍ⺞ߴࠆߣޔ

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-ߣߥࠆޕ

 ߎߩ 2 ߟߩᑼ߆ࠄޔ

r >

ߩߣ߈ޔ

h

₁ߣ

h

₂ߪ⽶ߣߥࠅޔ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔ৻࿖ౝߩᎿᬺ ຠߣㄘᬺຠߪઍᦧᕈࠍᜬߟߣ޿߁ޕㅒߦ

r <

ߩߣ߈ޔ

h

1ߣ

h

2ߪᱜߣߥࠅޔ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖ ⽷ޔ৻࿖ౝߩᎿᬺຠߣㄘᬺຠߪ⵬ቢᕈࠍᜬߟߣ޿߁ޕ ᦨೋߦὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻ߩᄌൻ₸ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߣ

( )

E M R

=

                                 㧔30㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ⥄࿖ߩὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻ࠍᷫଔߐߖࠆޕᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ⥄࿖ὑᦧ࡟ ࡯࠻ࠍჇଔߐߖࠆޕ  ᰴߦޔ⥄࿖ߩㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߦ෸߷ߔലᨐࠍߺࠆޕ

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                                      㧔31㧕 ߣߥࠆޕߎߎߢ

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                㧔32㧕 㧔31㧕ޔ㧔32㧕ᑼࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺╷ߪޔ⥄࿖ㄘᬺຠଔᩰࠍ਄᣹ߐߖࠆ߇ޔ⥄࿖ㄘᬺ ↥಴㊂ߦߪᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߐߥ޿ߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߦࠃࠆㄘ↥ຠᡰ಴ߩჇടߪㄘᬺຠଔ ᩰࠍ਄᣹ߐߖߡޔㄘᬺ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩᎿᬺຠ߳ߩ᡽ᐭᡰ಴ߩჇടߪㄘᬺຠଔ ᩰࠍ਄᣹ߐߖߡޔㄘᬺ↥಴㊂ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ⥄࿖ㄘᬺ ຠଔᩰࠍૐਅߐߖߡޔㄘᬺ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕ 㧔31㧕ޔ㧔32㧕ᑼࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩჇട߿ᄖ࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩᄌൻ߿ࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ ᡽╷ߩലᨐߪㄘᬺຠଔᩰߦᓇ㗀ࠍ෸߷ߔߩߺߢޔㄘᬺ↥಴㊂ߦߪ૗ߩലᨐ߽ߥ޿ޕߘߒߡޔ ߎࠇࠄߩᄌൻ߇ㄘᬺຠଔᩰߦ෸߷ߔലᨐߪ

r

ߩᄢ߈ߐߦଐሽߔࠆޕ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔㄘᬺ ຠߣᎿᬺຠ߇ઍᦧᕈࠍ߽ߟ㧔

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㧕ߣ߈ޔ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ޔᄖ࿖ߩ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥ 8 _{એਅߢߪ․ߦຠ⋡ߦ⸅ࠇߡ޿ߥ޿᡽ᐭᡰ಴ߩჇടߪ}

g

M

( )

k

_߆

g k

A

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_{ߩߤߜࠄ߆ߩჇട} ߦࠃࠅ

g k

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߇Ⴧടߒߚߎߣࠍᜰߔޕ
     

⽷᡽᡽╷ߪ⥄࿖ㄘᬺຠଔᩰࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕߒ߆ߒޔᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߣᄖ࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇട ߪޔ⥄࿖ㄘᬺຠଔᩰࠍૐਅߐߖࠆޕߘࠇߪޔ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔㄘᬺຠߣᎿᬺຠ߇ઍᦧᕈࠍ ߽ߟߣ߈ޔ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪ⥄࿖ߩᶖ⾌ࠍㄘ↥ຠߦࠪࡈ࠻ߐߖޔᄖ࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ ਄᣹ߣᄖ࿖ߩ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥ⽷᡽᡽╷ߪᶖ⾌ࠍ⥄࿖ߦࠪࡈ࠻ߐߖࠆߚ߼ޔߘࠇࠄߩലᨐߪ⥄࿖ߩ ㄘᬺຠଔᩰࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕ৻ᣇޔᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߣᄖ࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪᶖ⾌ࠍᄖ࿖⽷߳ ࠪࡈ࠻ߐߖࠆߚ߼ޔ⥄࿖ㄘᬺຠଔᩰࠍૐਅߐߖࠆޕㅒߦ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔㄘᬺຠߣᎿᬺຠ ߇⵬ቢᕈࠍ߽ߟ㧔

r <

㧕ߣ߈ޔ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ޔᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߣ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥ ⽷᡽᡽╷ߪ⥄࿖ㄘᬺຠଔᩰࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆޕߛ߇ޔᄖ࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ⥄࿖ㄘᬺຠଔᩰࠍ ਄᣹ߐߖࠆޕ  ᰴߦㇺᏒㇱ㐷ߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍߺࠆޕ

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                                      㧔33㧕

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- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 㧔34㧕  㧔33㧕ޔ㧔34㧕ᑼ߆ࠄޔ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ⥄࿖ߩᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖޔ⥄࿖ߩㇺᏒᄬ ᬺᲧ₸ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߦࠃࠆᎿᬺຠᡰ಴ߩჇടߪޔᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍ ჇടߐߖޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߩㄘᬺຠᡰ಴ߩჇടߪޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍ ૐਅߐߖࠆ߇ޔᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂߳ߩᓇ㗀ߪ

r

ߩᄢዊߦଐሽߒߡޔ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔㄘᬺຠߣ Ꮏᬺຠ߇ઍᦧᕈࠍ߽ߟ㧔

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㧕ߣ߈ߪޔᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇട ߪㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍ਄᣹ߐߖࠆ߇ޔᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ߦ෸߷ߔലᨐߪ

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ߦଐሽߔࠆޕ

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ߩߣ߈ ߪޔᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ߪᷫዋߔࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡޔㇺᏒ ᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍ਄᣹ߐߖࠆޕ  ᄖ࿖ߩࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ޔ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߣᦨૐ⾓㊄਄᣹ߩലᨐߪߔߴߡ

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ߩᄢዊߦଐሽߔ ࠆޕએਅߢߪ

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ߩߣ߈ࠍ⠨߃ࠆޕᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ⥄࿖ߩᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡޔ ⥄࿖ߩㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕᄖ࿖ߩ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥ⽷᡽᡽╷ߪᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖߡޔ

ㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆޕᄖ࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡޔㇺᏒᄬᬺ Ყ₸ࠍ਄᣹ߐߖࠆޕᄖ࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖߡޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍ ᷫዋߐߖࠆޕ  ⥄࿖ߩ‛ଔ᳓Ḱߣ✚ᶖ⾌ߦਈ߃ࠆᓇ㗀ߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆޕ

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                                      㧔35㧕

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           㧔36㧕 㧔35㧕ޔ㧔36㧕ᑼ߆ࠄޔ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ⥄࿖ߩ‛ଔ᳓Ḱࠍ਄᣹ߐߖߡޔ⥄࿖ߩ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍჇ ടߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥ⽷᡽᡽╷ߪޔ⥄࿖ߩ‛ଔ᳓Ḱࠍ਄᣹ߐߖߡޔ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍᷫዋߐߖ ࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ‛ଔ᳓Ḱࠍૐਅߐߖߡޔ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍ਄᣹ߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ ߩ਄᣹ߪ‛ଔ᳓ḰࠍჇടߐߖߡޔ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆޕ߹ߚޔߎࠇࠄ 2 ߟߩᑼ߆ࠄޔᄖ࿖ ߩᄌᢙߩᄌൻߩᓇ㗀ߪ⥄࿖ߩ႐วࠍหߓߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߽ಽ߆ࠆ  ᦨᓟߦޔ੤ᤃ᧦ઙߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆޕ

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      㧔37㧕 ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᖡൻߐߖޔ⥄࿖ߩ⽷᡽᜛ᄢߪ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᡷༀߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᡷༀߐߖߡޔ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪ⥄࿖ߩ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᖡൻߐ ߖࠆޕ㧔37㧕ᑼ߆ࠄޔᄖ࿖ߩᄌᢙ߇෸߷ߔലᨐߪ⥄࿖ߩ႐วߣㅒߦߥࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ 㧠 ⍴ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ޔੱญჇടߣᦨૐ⾓㊄਄᣹ߩലᨐ  ೨▵ߢߪቯᏱ⁁ᘒߟ߹ࠅ㐳ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߩലᨐࠍಽᨆߒߚޕᧄ▵ߢߪ⍴ᦼߦ߅ߌ ࠆ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߩലᨐࠍಽᨆߔࠆޕᧄ▵ߢ߽⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߪኻ⒓⊛ߢ޽ࠆߩߢޔ⥄࿖ߩലᨐߦಽ ᨆߩὶὐࠍวࠊߖࠆޕ ೨▵ߢ߽ㅀߴߚ߇ޔ⍴ᦼߣߪ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩ⾓㊄߇৻ቯߢ޽ࠆᦼ㑆ߢ޽ࠆޕߎ ߎߢޔ⾓㊄߇৻ቯߢ޽ࠆᦼ㑆ߪ 1 ᦼ㑆ߩߺߢ޽ࠅޔ1 ᦼ㑆ᓟߦߪ⾓㊄ߪቯᏱ⁁ᘒߦ⺞ᢛߐࠇ ࠆߣߔࠆޕᧄ▵ߢ߽᡽╷ലᨐߪᄌൻ₸

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㊄Ⲣ᡽╷ߩᄌൻߪᕡਭ⊛ߢ޽ࠆߚ߼ޔὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻ߩᄌൻߪ⍴ᦼߣ㐳ᦼߢหߓߦߥࠆޕ  ᰴߦㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩᓇ㗀ࠍߺࠆޕ

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 㧔38㧕 㧔38㧕ᑼ߆ࠄ⍴ᦼߩ႐วߪޔ㐳ᦼߣ⇣ߥࠅޔ㊄Ⲣ᡽╷߽᦭ലߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ
     

㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߣ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߦࠃࠆㄘ↥ຠᡰ಴ߩჇടߪㄘᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕ㐳ᦼߩ႐วߣ ⇣ߥࠅޔ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߩᎿᬺຠᡰ಴ߩჇടߪޔㄘᬺຠ↥಴㊂ߦ૗ߩലᨐ߽ߥ޿ޕ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ ߩჇടߪㄘ↥ຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߪㄘᬺຠ↥಴㊂ߦ૗ߩലᨐ߽ߥ޿ޕ  ᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺߇෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ߪ

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ߦଐሽߒߡ޿ࠆޕ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔㄘᬺຠߣᎿᬺຠ߇ ઍᦧᕈࠍ߽ߟ㧔

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㧕ߣ߈ޔᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ⥄࿖ߩㄘ↥ຠ↥಴㊂ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆޕ  ㇺᏒㇱ㐷ߩᓇ㗀ࠍߺߡ޿ߊޕ

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                                      㧔39㧕

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                           㧔40㧕  㧔39㧕ࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕߒ߆ߒޔ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥ⽷᡽᡽╷ ߪ૗ߩലᨐ߽ߥ޿ߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇട߇Ꮏᬺຠ↥಴㊂ߦ෸߷ߔലᨐߪ

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ߩ ᄢ߈ߐߦଐሽߒߡ޿ࠆޕ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔㄘᬺຠߣᎿᬺຠ߇ઍᦧᕈࠍ߽ߟ㧔

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㧕ߣ߈ޔ ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍૐਅߐߖࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆޕ  ᄖ࿖ߩᄌᢙߩലᨐߪߔߴߡ

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ߩߣ߈ޔᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߣᄖ࿖ߩ✚ ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ⥄࿖ߩᎿᬺຠ↥಴㊂ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡޔᄖ࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪ⥄࿖ߩᎿᬺຠ↥ ಴㊂ࠍჇടߐߖࠆޕ  㧔40㧕ࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖ߩㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ߪ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߦߩߺଐሽߒߡ޿ߡޔ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓ ㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍ਄᣹ߐߖࠆޕ  ✚ᶖ⾌ߦ෸߷ߔലᨐߪ

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                 㧔41㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߣ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍჇടߐߖߡޔ⥄࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ ਄᣹ߪ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍᷫዋߐߖࠆޕ㧔41㧕ᑼ߆ࠄޔᄖ࿖ߩᄌᢙߩലᨐߪ⥄࿖ߩ႐วߣหߓߦߥࠆߎ ߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ  ⥄࿖ߩ੤ᤃ᧦ઙߦ෸߷ߔലᨐߪ

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             㧔42㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ⥄࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߣᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪ⥄࿖ߩ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᖡൻߐߖޔ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩ Ⴧടߪ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᡷༀߔࠆޕ㧔42㧕ᑼ߆ࠄޔᄖ࿖ߩലᨐߪ⥄࿖ߩ႐วߣㅒߦߥࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ ࠆޕ

㧡 ࡕ࠺࡞ಽᨆߩ⚿ᨐߣ⃻ታߩ⚻ᷣ߳ߩࠗࡦࡊ࡝ࠤ࡯࡚ࠪࡦ  ᧄ▵ߢߪ 3 ▵ޔ4 ▵ߩ⚿ᨐߣ⃻ታߩേ߈ࠍᲧセߔࠆߎߣߢޔߎߩࡕ࠺࡞ಽᨆߩ⚿ᨐ߆ࠄዉ ಴ߐࠇࠆࠗࡦࡊ࡝ࠤ࡯࡚ࠪࡦߦߟ޿ߡㅀߴࠆޕ  ⥄࿖ߩ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥࡑࠢࡠ᡽╷ߪ⥄࿖ߩㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ߩᡷༀߦነਈߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ ᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖᡽ᐭ߇৻⥸ߦㇺᏒߩᄬᬺ₸ߩᡷༀࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߡ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥࡑࠢࡠ᡽╷ࠍታᣉߔ ࠆߎߣߪᄙޘ޽ࠅޔߎߩࡕ࠺࡞ಽᨆߩ⚿ᨐ߽ߘࠇࠍⵣઃߌࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕ  ⥄࿖ߩ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ㧔33㧕ޔ㧔34㧕ࠃࠅㄘ᧛ㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪ࠍჇടߐߖࠆ߇ޔ㐳ᦼߩㇺᏒᄬ ᬺᲧ₸ߪᖡൻߒߡߒ߹߁ޕᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪ߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ߪ৻ᗧߦ᳿ቯߢ߈ߥ޿ޕ႐วߦࠃ ߞߡߪޔߟ߹ࠅޔ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ޔㄘᬺຠߣᎿᬺຠ߇⵬ቢᕈࠍ߽ߟߣ߈ޔᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪ ߇Ⴧടߒߚߦ߽߆߆ࠊࠄߕޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸߇ᖡൻߔࠆ႐ว߽޽ࠆޕߎߩ⚿ᨐ߆ࠄޔᣂ⥝ㅜ ਄࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆੱญߩჇടߪޔㇺᏒㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪ߩჇᷫߩᅤ૗ߦ㑐ࠊࠄߕޔㇺᏒᄬᬺࠍᖡൻߐ ߖߡߒ߹߁ߎߣࠍ␜ໂߒߡ޿ࠆޕ  ᦨૐ⾓㊄਄᣹ߩലᨐߪޔᣂ⥝㨯ㅜ਄࿖᡽ᐭߩᕁᖺㅢࠅߦⴕߊߣߪ㒢ࠄߥ޿੐ࠍ␜ໂߒߡ޿ ࠆޕᦨૐ⾓㊄਄᣹ߪ㧔33㧕ޔ㧔34㧕ࠃࠅᎿᬺㇱ㐷ߩ㓹↪ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡޔㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ࠍᖡൻ ߐߖߡߒ߹߁ޕߐࠄߦޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪ㧔36㧕ࠃࠅޔ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡߒ߹߁ޕߎߩ ࠃ߁ߦޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩᒁ߈਄ߍߦࠃࠆᶖ⾌ߩ᜛ᄢߦࠃࠆਛ㑆ጀߩჇടߣ޿߁᡽ᐭߩ⋡⊛ߣߪ ⋧ኈࠇߥ޿⚿ᨐߦߥࠆޕ  ෘ↢ಽᨆߩઍࠊࠅߦޔ㧔37㧕ࠃࠅ੤ᤃ᧦ઙߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ࠍߺࠆޕ✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߪ✚ᶖ⾌ߩ Ⴧടࠍ߽ߚࠄߔߎߣߦࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖ߩ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᡷༀߐߖࠆޕߒ߆ߒޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪ✚ ᶖ⾌ߩૐਅߦࠃࠅޔ੤ᤃ᧦ઙࠍᖡൻߐߖߡߒ߹߁ޕߎߩෘ↢ಽᨆߩⷰὐ߆ࠄ߽ޔᦨૐ⾓㊄ ߩᒁ߈਄ߍߪᦸ߹ߒߊߥ޿ߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ  ᶏᄖ߆ࠄߩᵄ෸ലᨐߦߟ޿ߡ⠨ኤߔࠆޕᦨೋߦޔᄖ࿖ߩࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷ߦߟ޿ߡㅀߴࠆޕ ㊄Ⲣ᡽╷ߣ⽷᡽᡽╷ߢߪ⥄࿖ߦ෸߷ߔലᨐ߇ᱜ෻ኻߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕߎࠇߪޔߎࠇࠄ ߩ᡽╷ߩലᨐ߇✚ᶖ⾌ߦ෸߷ߔലᨐ߇ㅒߛ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕᄖ࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ✭๺ߪ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍჇടߐ ߖࠆ߇ޔᄖ࿖ߩ᜛ᄢ⊛ߥ⽷᡽᡽╷ߪࠢ࡜࠙࠺ࠖࡦࠣ㨯ࠕ࠙࠻ߩߚ߼ޔ✚ᶖ⾌ࠍᷫዋߐߖߡߒ ߹߁ޕߒߚ߇ߞߡޔ㧔31㧕ޔ㧔33㧕ޔ㧔34㧕ޔ㧔38㧕ޔ㧔39㧕ࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷߇⵬ቢᕈࠍ߽ ߟ㧔

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 ᄖ࿖ߩᦨૐ⾓㊄ߩ਄᣹ߪ㧔31㧕ޔ㧔33㧕ޔ㧔34㧕ޔ㧔39㧕ࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷߇ઍᦧᕈࠍ߽ ߟ㧔

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㧕ߣ߈ޔ⥄࿖᡽ᐭߦߣߞߡ⥄࿖ߩฦㇱ㐷ߦᅢ߹ߒ޿ലᨐࠍ߽ߚࠄߔޕ  એ਄߆ࠄᵄ෸ലᨐߦ㑐ߒߡߪޔ

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ߩ୯ߦᄢ߈ߊଐሽߒߡ޿ࠆޕߟ߹ࠅޔ㒢⇇ല↪ߢ᷹ߞ ߚ⥄࿖⽷ߣᄖ࿖⽷ߣߩ㑐ଥߦᄢ߈ߊଐሽߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ 㧢ޔ߅ࠊࠅߦ  ᧄⓂߢߪޔᣂ⥝࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣ᡽╷߿✚ഭ௛ߩჇടߣᦨૐ⾓㊄਄᣹߇෸߷ߔᓇ㗀 ࠍಽᨆߒߚޕCorsetti and Pesenti(2001)ߩࡕ࠺࡞ߦㄘᬺㇱ㐷ࠍㅊടߒߡޔߐࠄߦㇺᏒߣㄘ ᧛ߩഭ௛⒖േߦ㑐ߒߡߪ Harris and Todaro(1970)ߩࡕ࠺࡞ࠍዉ౉ߒߚޕߘߩࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ↪޿ ߡಽᨆߒߚ⚿ᨐ߇⴫ 4 ߆ࠄ⴫ 8 ߢ޽ࠆޕ  ᧄⓂߢߪޔᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖ߢߩ෩ߒ޿⾗ᧄ⒖േⷙ೙߿㊄ⲢᏒ႐ߩᧂ⊒㆐࡮ᧂᢛ஻ࠍℂ↱ߦ ߒߡޔ⾗↥ߣߒߡௌ೛ࠍዉ౉ߒߡ޿ߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒޔࡕ࠺࡞ߩ৻⥸ൻߩߚ߼ߦߪௌ೛ࠍขࠅ ㄟ߻ᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕ߹ߚޔᧄⓂߢߪᄌേ⋧႐೙ࠍ઒ቯߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔᣂ⥝࡮ㅜ਄࿖ߢߪታ㓙ޔ ࡍ࠶ࠣ೙ߥߤߩ࿕ቯ࡟࡯࠻೙ࠍណ↪ߒߡ޿ࠆ࿖߽ᄙ޿ޕߎࠇࠄߪᰴߩ⺖㗴ߣߒߚ޿ޕ ෳ⠨ᢥ₂

Corsetti, G. and Pesenti, P. (2001) “Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 116(2), pp.421-446

Harris, J.R. and Todaro, M.P. (1970) “Migration, Unemployment and Development: The Two-Sector Model”, American Economic Review 60(1), pp.126-142

Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (1995)”Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux”, Journal of Political Economy 103, pp.624-660 ⵬⺰ 1 㐳ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆౝ↢ᄌᢙߩ᳓Ḱߩዉ಴ ᶖ⾌⠪ߩ੍▚೙⚂㧔9㧕ߣ᡽ᐭߩ੍▚೙⚂㧔24㧕ࠃࠅޔH ࿖ߢ

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9 _{ߎߩቯᑼൻ߽ Corsetti and Pesenti(2001)ߣหߓߢ޽ࠆޕ}
   

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                            㧔A8㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ  ⽷Ꮢ႐ဋⴧ᧦ઙޔࡂ࡝ࠬ࡮࠻࠳ࡠ࡯᧦ઙࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖ߩㄘᬺຠଔᩰߪ

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ࠍ↪޿ࠆޕ ᄖ࿖ߩ႐ว߽ห᭽ߦߒߡ

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㧔A9㧕ޔ㧔A10㧕ࠃࠅ⥄࿖㧔H ࿖㧕ߢߩㄘᬺ↥಴㊂ߣᎿᬺ↥಴㊂ߪ

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                                     㧔A14㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ  ߹ߚޔ㧔18㧕ޔ㧔19㧕ޔ㧔23㧕ޔ㧔A9㧕ࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖ߩㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ߪ

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                                     㧔A15㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ ห᭽ߦߒߡᄖ࿖ߩㇺᏒᄬᬺᲧ₸ߪ

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                                     㧔A16㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ  ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩ‛ଔ᳓Ḱߪฦޘޔ
     

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ߣቯ⟵ߐࠇࠆߩߢޔ‛ଔ᳓Ḱࠃࠅ

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            㧔A19㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ ቯᏱ⁁ᘒߦ߅ߌࠆ⥄࿖ߣᄖ࿖ߩ✚ᶖ⾌ߪ

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ߣߥࠆޕ  ⵬⺰ 2 ⍴ᦼߦ߅ߌࠆౝ↢ᄌᢙߩ᳓Ḱߩዉ಴ ᒰೋߩ⚻ᷣᄌᢙߪ

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                          㧔A22㧕 ߢ޽ࠅޔ⽷᡽᡽╷ߦߟ޿ߡ

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                          㧔A8㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ߹ߚޔ⍴ᦼߦ߅޿ߡ߽ޔ㐳ᦼߣหߓᶖ⾌⠪ߩ੍▚೙⚂ߣ᡽ᐭߩ੍▚೙⚂߇ᚑ┙ߒ ߡޔߐࠄߦ⽷Ꮢ႐ဋⴧ᧦ઙ߽㐳ᦼߣห᭽ߦ⍴ᦼߢᚑ┙ߔࠆޕߟ߹ࠅޔ㧔A1㧕㨪㧔A6㧕߽ห ᭽ߦᚑ┙ߔࠆޕࠃߞߡޔ

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         㧔A23㧕

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            㧔A28㧕  ߒߚ߇ߞߡޔ⍴ᦼߢ߽㐳ᦼߣห᭽ߦ

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                          㧔A29㧕 ߇ᚑ┙ߔࠆޕ  ⽷Ꮢ႐ဋⴧ᧦ઙ㧔A25㧕ޔ㧔A26㧕ࠃࠅޔ⥄࿖㧔H ࿖㧕ߢߩㄘᬺ↥಴㊂ߣᎿᬺ↥಴㊂ߪ

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                                     㧔A30㧕

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                                     㧔A31㧕 ߎߎߢ

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                                     㧔A32㧕

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㧔A33㧕 ߎߎߢ

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   㧔A34㧕

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     㧔A35㧕 ߣߥࠆޕ