Latin America's Place in Japanese Export Trade郁ｦ∫ｴ→繧ｳ繝｡繝ｳ繝茨ｼ壽ｰｴ驥惹ｸ/a>

L,ＡＴＩＮＡＭＥＲＩＣＡ'SPLACEINJAPANESEEXPORTTRADE PI⑤=11= ｂｙＪｏ】｢geCiancaglini ■+■･ﾏウ．｡ ■-◆｡▼ Ofallmajorindus[rialcountries,Japanhasthefastestyearlyrateofmcrease mthevolumeofmanufactuｒｅｄｇｏｏｄｓｉｔｐｕｔｓｏｎｔｈｅｍａｒｋｅｔｕａｎｄeveryyearthese

goodsbecomerela[ivelycheaper上han上hoseofferedbyitBcompetitorａ１Ａｓａｒｅ－

ｓｕｌｔ，itsexportsexhibitveryhighratesｏｆｇｒｏｗｔｈ：durIngl955-650fOrlnstance， ｔｈｅｙｇｒｅｗａｔａｎａｖｅｒａｇｅｒａｔｅｏｆｌ５ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒｙｅａｒＤｗｉ[ｈｒｅｃｅｎｔｐｅａｋｓｏｆ２２ｐｅｒ ２ ｃｅｎｔｉｎｌ９６４ａｎｄ２７ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉｎｌ９６５･ InthiscontextofrapidlyexpandIngJapaneseexportaitisofinteresttotryto ascertainwhetherLatlnAmericapsimportpatternsbyoriginhaveundergoneany modifIcatlonswhichmaybeascrimbleto,andcommensuratewith,theincrcasem thenowofJapanesegoods上otheworldmarke[．ThespeedatwhichvarlouScount-riesorregionsincreasetheirimportsfromagivencoumrycannotofcoursebe uniform,firstofallbecausetheratesofgrowthoftheirtotalimportsarethem-selveSnotunifOrm，ThisfirstreasonDhowever，hasnosigniIicanceforourpumose･ DiIferｅｎｍａｌｒａｔｅｓｏｆｇｒｏｗｔｈｏｆｔｏｔａｌｌｍｐｏrtsareindependentofchangesiｎｔｈｅｃｏｌｍ－ ｐｏｓｉｔｌｏｎｏｆｉｍｐｏｒｔｓｂｙOrigin，and，ｓｔｅｍｍｉｎｇａｓｔｈｅｙｄｏｆｒｏｍｄｅｅｐｌｙ－ｒｏｏtedstruc-turalcauses，maybeconsideredasgiven･significantinsteadaredifferencesin Betweenl9,８ａｎｄl9659takingtherormeraslOO，manuEacturinghBdriBen to267inＪａｐａｎＤａＢａｇ日ﾕnBt178ユ、エtaﾕｙ，１６２ｉｎＷｅＢｔＧｅｍａｎｙ９エラ５in theUnitedStateB，ｌ４２ｉｎＦｒａｎｃｅａｎｄユ３４ｉｎｔｈｅＵｎﾕｔｅｄＸﾕngdom（IJnited Febmaｴｙ1967,ｐ、１８２２.）Ｔｎｅ Nations， HonthlyBuユユetinoEStatiBtﾕCｓ

exportpriceindexPwhichrema1nedla工ｇｅｌｙｃｏｎＢｔａｎｔａｔ１ＯＯ１ｎＪａｐａｎｄur-ingthisperiod（BurgingbrierﾕｙｔｏユＯ５ｉｎｌ９６２ａｎｄｄﾕppingtowtwo

yearslater，ｔｏｒｅｖｅｒｔｔｏｌＯＯユ、ユ96う)，ｈａｄｒｅａｃｈｅｄｉｎユ965ａｖａﾕｕｅｏｆ ﾕｏ６ｉｎｔｈｅＵｎﾕtedKingdom，ユo7inWestGermanyl109inｔｈｅＵｍｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓ ａｎｄｌ２０ｉｎＦｒａｎｃｅ･ＡＵｔｈｅＢｅユncreasewereBteady･エｔａﾕｙｗａｓｔｈｅｏｎﾕy majorcountrytoexhibitamoreEavourabletrend，ａＢｉｔｓｅｘｐｏｒｔｐ亘Ｃｅ ﾕndexdec1inedsteadi1yto94ｂｙ1965．エｔｉＢｗｏｒｔｈｎｏｔｉｎｇｔｈａｔｔｈｅ ａｂｏｖｅＪａｐａｎｅｓｅユｎｄｅｘｅＢａｒｅｔｈｏＢｅｃＯｍｐｕｔｅｄｂｙｔｈｅＢａｎｋｏ２ＪａｐａｎｏＡｃｃｏｒｄ－ ユｎｇｔｏＪａｐａｎ１ＢＤｌﾕ､ﾕＢｔｒｙｏｆＦﾕnance，ＪａｐａｎｌＢｅｘｐｏｒｔｐｒﾕceindexdeclined Bteadﾕﾕｙ２ｒｏｍ１ＯＯｉｎ１９５８ｔｏ９４ｉｎユ965．（ｴntemationaユHonetaｴｙＨｍｄ， ｴnternationaユＦﾕnanciaユStatiBtﾕＣｓ，Janua工ｙ1967.） Japan9stotaユexportsroserrom32,0ﾕ０１ﾛﾕﾕﾕﾕｏｎｉｎｌ９５５ｔｏ＄8,452ｍﾕﾕｴion inユ965．エ、エ963ａｎｄｌ９６４ｔｈｅｙａｍｏｕｎｔｅｄｔｏ６５,452mi1lionand66,673

m11ionrespectively．（U､ﾕtedNationB，HonthlyBu11etino2Statistics，

Februaryl967.） ２ －８－

distanceD3Insettlement［ｅｒｍｓｏｉｎｔｈｅｓｕｐｐｌｙｏｆａｆｔｅｒｓａｌｅｓｓｅrvicesDingood-wlllP

Onbalance-of-paymcntsconstraints，ｉｎｋｎｏｗｌｅｄｇｅｏｆｔｈｅｍａｒｋｅｔａｎｄｓｏｆｏｒｔｈｐａｌｌｏｆ

ｗｈｉｃｈＯｔｏｔｈｅｅｘｔｅｎｔtha［ｔｈｅｙｄｅｐａｒｔｆｒｏｍａｎｏｒｍａｎｄａｒｅｎｏtcompensatedfbrby

offsettingdIrectionsintheirmovements，ｍａｋｅｆｏｒａｄeparturefrom［hemagni[udc

oftradethatcouldbeconsiderednormalifcompetitivenessalonecounted．

ThepurposeofthispaperOtherefore，ｉｓ［oanalysetheextent［owhichLatin

Americadevia[esfromjustsuchanormalpatterninitsimportsfromJapan,ａｎｄｔｏ

ｔｒｙｔｏｓｏｒｔｏｕｔｍｅｐｒｏｂａｂｌｅｃａuses，ａｓｗｅｌｌａｓｓｏｍｅｃｏｎｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓ，ofthatdeviation･

ＴｈｅｒｅａｓｏｎｗｈｙｔｒａｄｅｉｎｏｎｌｙｏｎｅｄｉｒeｃｔｉｏｎｉｓｔａｋｅｎｕｐｉｓｔｈｅＩａｃｋｏｆｓｙｍｅｔｒｙＩｎ

上radeInonlyonedirectionistakenｕｐｉｓｔｈｅｌａｃｋｏｆｓｙｍｍｅｔｒｙｉｎｔｒａｄｅｂｅtweenboth

economiesIntermsofdynamism，LatinAmericanexports[oJapansimplyfollow

thetrendsinJapan'simportexpansionassociatedwi[hthegrowthinitsna[ional

productosotha【inc定aｓｅｓ－ｓｏｍｅｏｆｔｈｅｍｓｐｅｃｔａｃｕｌａｒ，ａｓｗｉｔｈｉｒｏｎｏｒｅＤｆｕｅＩｏｏｒ，ａ

ｆｅｗｙｅａｒｓａｇｏ，bananas-arenotascribabletochanｇｅｓｉｎＬａ[inAmericanproduc-

tivity,ortechnology,orsalesmanship,butmerelytoincreaseinJapan，srequIre-ments･Ｂｙｃｏｎ上rast，increasesintheproportionofgoodsthatLatinAmericabuysin

Japaｎａｒｅｎｏｔｒｅｌａｔedtochangesinrequirements,butarethedirectresultof

changesinJapanpscompetitiveposition,ortochangesinLatinAmerica『ｓａｗare‐

ｎｅｓｓｏｆｉｔ･

TheperiodanaIysedisthepos[-wargenerallyintheintroddbtoryparagraphsD

andlg62/o5inasecondstage・Thisfouryearperiodwaschosenmainlybecauseｉｎ

ｌ９６２ａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｓｔａ[isticalseries，ｔｈｅ CommodityTradeStatistics_publjshedby

theUnitedNationsounderwentasubs[antialchangeofformat［hatmadeitpossible

toundermkewitｈｅａｓｅｔｈｉｓｓｔｕｄｙ･Theperiodalsohastheadvantage［hatitIssuf- ficientlyremovedfromJapanDsreconstructionpericd1theKoreanWarandthedis-tortionsbroughtaboutbyincmwertibilityandbilateraliSminthel9SO，stomake onefeeIconfidentthatthepatternsobservedhavesolidfoundations･AboveallDthe

periodhastheaddedadvantagethatiswelloutsidethetime-reachingmoreorless

ＦｒｏｍａｒＩｃｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｐｏｉｎｔｏｒｖｉｅｗ，distancebetweengeographicaユｐｏｉｎｔｓ

ｎｅｅｄｎｏｔｂｅｃｏｎｓｉｄｅｒｅｄａｓｇｉｖｅｎＰｏｗｉｎｇｔｏｄｉｆｒｅｒｅｎｔｐｏＢＢｉｂ１ｅｃｏｍｂｉ－

ｎａｔｉｏｎｓｏｒｒｒｅｉｇｈｔｓ． ３ －９－

－０１－ ．（･ＪＪ８７Ｗ．ｄ‘ｇ９６１ＳＯｍｓｒ１℃１ＳｅＰゼエＬ八斗rPoUmD5） ℃！】【℃u召ｄｏ４ｐ[ｏｓｓｄｒｕＩｓ３ｕＴｐｎＴｏｘａ－－４ｕｓｕＪａＴｎｂｅキエｏｄｓｕ巴ユキｐｕ℃にsuTIIomn （ｑ二oJpe4unoooEeｴeHuoTrITu１８．７９パｒｕｏ０エSAe仇ｏＨ･g96ruTsuoTTITul r7＄O4suWunouj官‘erqY3rI3su4oueD[已已opsuJVuT4石Ｔｏ４ｓ４ＺｏｄｘｅｓＩｐｕＵ[u、 ９ ６［‘ｓｏＴ４ ｄｕｏＴ４軍 ｑｑｈＴｕＵｕＵｒＪｏａｐＥ ‐ｓＴ１Ｕ１Ｓａｐロコ１１，パqTpoululoOpu巳‘ＳＧＩ．。 －てu函ｴＯＳＰ画,ＬｔＦｕｴe4x3uﾋﾞ｡℃ｆｍｏﾕJPe40nbsaｴnSTd）・巳oTｴeulVuT１℃Ｔｏ４ｕＴ ﾊﾟﾕｷﾞｕｓｓ４Ｙｏ４ｕＵｑ４江Ｓｕｎゼコｓｅｍ４１ｍｏｏＢｕ１４ユｏｄｘｅａ叩ⅢoユＪａｓＴｐｕ℃IIoエｅｍＪｏ ４Ｙｘｅｅｑ４ｏ４ｐａ４ＷｅユエＦｅＲｕｅＡＴ３℃６ｓ正己ul矼已ｄＳｕＴｐ巳ユユｓ４ＴＪｏＢ４Ｕｐｅｏｕ℃丘巴ｓＴｏ ｓｕｚｏ４ｓｎｏａ【ＷｌｕｏｴＪｅ4℃u℃UJS江aa℃ｄｓＴｑ４ｕＴｐａｓｎｓｓﾕTl月ＴＪ４ユodulTuロoTエeuJV uT1ごＴｓｑｌｅｏｕＪＳ（。、AIeAr4oedssユuoTI[Tul67＄ｐuごuoTrITuITE9o4g96T urpe4uno血已ｓｕｏｍＵｕｒ４ｓｓｐａｓｏｑ４ｏ４ｅｕｏｔ君ｕ℃ｄＰＰｕｌｏＺＪ・ｓ４ユｏｄｘｅｉｐｅｐｎＴｏｘｅｓ巫已 （euoZI巴uFOam43uTpntouT）℃eエセｕ巳ｏｒ江aujVuT4℃ＴｅＨ４ＪｏｓａＴＺｏ４Ｔｴｴｅ４江ａｎ４。 ｐｕ巴ｏｏＴｌｌｏ１Ｄ[eYHo4seTz1unoorT己ujoｴＪｓ４ｴodxH（ｑ・pepnloxssエゼ‘u巴｡巴ｒ パｑＰｒｏｓｅﾕeHuorTTTuJごどSHoTwハＪｏ‘596ruTuoTTrTm96so4Pa4unoul己 qoTqn‘巴ul已ｕＦｄｏ４ｓｅＴﾕqunoo8rujog[ＪｓｄＴＵｓＪｏ・s4江odxH（℃：sesn巴ｏｇｕて -札ｏｒｒｏＪｅｑ３ｏ４ＳｕＴ仇ｏｕｏＴ４℃ｏｒｒｑｎｄエｅｑ４ｏｕＴｕｅＡ[sssoW4uJoエＪｊ[ｅＪＪＴｐ５パｔｕｏ ｓｅｓｏｄＺｎｄ［石ｏｒリパＴＦｕロユｏＪｐＴｒ巴Ａｅユ巴ＷＣＴ印Ａ６工ｓｄ官ｄｓｎｌ４ｕｒｐｅｓｎｓｅｍ８ＴＪｓⅡ皿 し 。sｴFIIopss1E]Ｓｐａ]UunJuaｴｴn．ｕ１ａｴF ssnlFA・sa1工]unoolIEuIoｴＪｓｄ１ＩＩｓＪｏｓ江oduJ1uE1ucmFuEdsエゼｓｕ‘]nolI3noｴIlJpapnlo -xas1SpEｴJuFo1ｴgmVu1JuJ~１－エs]ｕＩ・ｐＩ工ｏＡｈａｍｓＰｏＪｐＳｴｴOJaエａｑＤｴCJSｴgqJIII砧sg1エ ー]uno｡ＢＵｏｌＩＬ・I1FIusエelI1Fエs1sa1ﾕ]unoD]s1IE１つoSa9JpuEEoﾘｴJVlIJnoS`F1IFｴﾕsnV opuFIu1ju｣ｏｪＪｐａﾕｪoduIlsnlPAD叩ｓＵ‘ｓﾕｪodullu⑭ａｖｪ｡山Ｖｕ１]Ｆ７１ｍｏ］ｏ］ェＦｅｕ Ｓ ﾊｴＳＡＳエロＳＳＩェ]unoD8IssslI1uIoｪJsmodxgo1uauldlnbaJｪodsuｾﾞｪﾕｐｕゼパェａｕ１ＩＩＤＦＩｕｕｏ 人IIF1osdsapuu‘ｓａｴmaFJnulguIuoaql恥s1sEIlduJsエ､０３つu1S・uFdEfpuFF1AuIsoHn入 `ｕ１ＥｄＳ‘FpFuuOoss]u]Ｓｐａ]1unolllusaﾘｪｭｕｎｏａＶＬヨョｐｕｕＯヨコｅｑＪａｪＥＳｪeuⅢFd3u1pFｪ］

・IIL『so1ｴas万755両UH5asuo11cNpo11unaq]u1peqs1IqndsE-peJouos1“ｴ｡Ulo

ssSIun-mFpaDuEｴＥｅｌ⑪ｕ１ｏＪｓｎｏｓ`ｴDumFd3u1pFｴ］ｅ叩uloｴＪ］uauｴｺsn1pCAuBmo叩!“ ｐｇＡ１１⑨ｐｕｓａｑａＡｍＩｐｕＦ‘.ｑ･ｏ･Ｊｇ１ＥｍＦｐＪｪodul1uUD1ェaulVu1]CFI・so1IqndolIu⑨①1ェａｍＶ ｕ１ＪｕＴＯＺａｌＩ］ＣＪＳｴｅＪｇユぽつ1ｴgulVu1JFFI：ｐｅ]ousqpInoIIssuo1]1u1JapBuv仇olIoJaIIL 公 ・peu1uxFxes1uudFIuloｴＪｓ]ｴoduJls1じっﾘｴsluVu1]uPIu1A｡!IFIuｴou uuoｴJuo11U1AepuesnFooユエFaddF］F叩ｓﾕ０ｺＤＵＪｓｎｏｕｴｾﾞﾍＪｏｅﾜﾛFｺｴodlu1sq］‘KIIFu1a ．(･AsWDLIS)paslAoH1uovJE｡、ss⑰IoapゼエLIFuo1］Euｴ②]ulpｴFpumSsq]ＪＯＢ］131ｐ エｎｏＪＪｏ１０ＡａｌａＩＩＪ１ＰａｐゼエJguIulｾﾞｘａｏＪｍｏｐＤ１Ｒｕ１ｓｓ１ｆＯ６ＴエＥＳパｅ叩‘ａＢｍｓｐｴﾘu1ｺＰｕｌ ･glqFuo!]senbn1]ssFAhsjonpoｴdKuFuJulssauaAmJsdInoDs･uFdUIueqJYk-O96Tmu1 spHoｴ］ユエodxoSsguEd℃ｆｕｔｅｏＷｄｓｉｕｏｐｓｍＶｕＴコセ可

Ｉ

ExportsfromJapantoLatinAmericahavegrownspectacularlyinthepost-war

years･Ｂｅ[ｗｅｅｎｌｌ５３ａｎｄｌ９６４ｔｈｅｙｇｒｅｗａｔａｎａｖｅｒａｇｅｒａｔｅｏｆｌ４．６percentper

year,jumpingfrom＄８１millionto＄362million,whereasto[alLatinAmericanim-por[sfromallcountrieBoutsidethereｇＩｏｌｍｒｏｓｅｏｎｌｙａｔａｒａ[ｅｏｆ２ｏ６percemper

year,ｆｒｏｍ＄6’120million[ｏ＄8,O60million・Japanthussecuredamincreasmgshａｒｅ

ｏｆｔｈｃＬａ[inAmericanumportmarke[Dwhichfrom1.3ｐｅｒｃｅｍｏｆｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｍｌ９５３

ｒｏｓｅｔｏ４･Ｓｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉｎｌ９６４･

ThehigbrateofgrowthofJapaneseexportstoLatinAmericawashoweverex-ceededbytherateofgrowmolJapaneseexportstotheworldasawhole・Between

thesameyearsothesegreｗａ［ｔｈｅｒａｔｅｏｆ１６．３ｐｅｒｃｅｎＸｐｅｒｙｅａｒ，passingfrom

＄1,270millionto＄6,674million,andexportstocertainimportantmarketsgrew

evenmorCsteeply:ｆｒｏｍ＄l20millionto＄867millioninWesternEurope,ａｎｄfrom

＄235millionto＄1,842millionintbeUnitedStates･Asaresult,theshareofJapan0s

exports上akenupbyLatmAmericadeclinedfro、６．４ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｉｎｌ９５３ｔｏ

５．４ｐｅｒｃｅｎｒｉｎｌ９６４．

ItmustbepointedoutthatJapan，sexportstodifferen[marketsarenotBtrictly

comparable，fromtheaggregatefiguresowimthoseofotherindustrialCountries・

Onecharacteristicofthejapaneseexpor[ｐａ[ternisitsdualism,orthetendencyto

produceontheonehandlabour-intensivegoodstobe、arketedmainlyintheadvan-cedcountriespandontheothercapital-intensivegoodstobemarketedmainlyinthe

underdevelopedone8.61,1965,forlnstance,Japanexportedgoodstothevalueof

＄4.3billiontothedevelopedcoumries,andtothevalueof＄3.6billion[otheunder-GAmongJapaneBeexportsmaﾕ､ﾕｙｄｅＢｔｉｎｅｄ２ｏｒユow-incomemarketBare

_{rO11ing-stock9chemica1rertﾕﾕﾕzer，rayonyarnPtexti1emachﾕne］ｐｙａｎｄ}

ｐＢｒｔＢ，ｓｔａｐ１ｅＥｉｂｒｅｙＥｪｎａｎｄＥａｂｒｉｃＢ，ceInentB9enBmelユｅｄユエon-w錘ｅ,

_{鰯;117錨~ai亜迅遍－Ｗ5゜,ｴeny・運､;ﾕr9n-an4…l2R92t2PfaP竺雪Ｈ}

ｃｏｐｐｅｒｓ，ｅｔｃ･AmongJapaneBee工portBmaﾕ､ﾕydestinedEorhigh-imcome

孟鱸穂，曇~目hi孟了詠三息亟;b1…es,plywQod,Puｴﾔuredp9埋旦,.i1ｋ

２abr1cs，ｆｉｓｈａｎｄｓｈｅﾕﾕｰZiBhDrishBndwhaﾕe-oiユ，ｔｏｙｓ，ユユ､e”，

ｃａｍｅras，ｒａｄ１ｏＢＤｅｔｃ・sees・OkitaDrIPoBt-WarStmctureofJapanus

ForeignTradeiIin些旦旦旦凹些_ﾕ些旦ﾆﾛ竺皇２２昌当且，Ｘｴエ（ﾕ960)，Ｐ．”．

－１１－

LatlnA□er1cabplaceユnJapaneseexporttrade

developedones･Exportsofmachineryandtransportcquipmenttotheformerohow-everDaccountedfor26percentofthetotal，ｏｒ＄1.1billion,whereasthoseshipped

７

tothela[ｔｃｒａｃｃｏｕｎｔｅｄｆｏｒ３９ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｆ[ｈｅ［o[ａＬｏｒ＄1.4billion．Similarly，

therearedifにrencesinthesrructureofLatinAmericapsimpor[ｓｂｙｏｒｉｇｉｎ、1,

1965,ｆｏｒexample,outofatotalvalueofJapaneseexportsof＄386milliontoLa[ｉｎ

America，ｏｎｌｙ＄6.5miUion,ｏｒＬ７ｐｅｒｃｅｎ[,wasaccountedfOrbyprimaryproducts

-rawmaterials,foods[uffsandfuels71nthecaseoftheUnitedStatespexportsto

LatinAmerica，however,－whichamountedto＄3,611million-＄680million,orl8

percentDwereaccountedforbythoscproducts、８０[herindustrialexportersheld

intermedia[epositions．

ＦｏｒｔｈＩｓｒｅａｓｏｎｏｉｔｉｓａｄｖｉｓａｂｌｅｔｏａnalyseonlyagWencategoryofgoods，ｓｏａｓ

ｔｏｈａｖｅｂｅ【tercomparability；andcapitalgoodsDorDspecifIcallyOmachineryand

[ranSportequlpment（includingsomeconsumerdurables)appeartobethebest

choice，notonlybecause［heyarethemostrepresen[ativeanddynamicproduc[sofa

modernindus【ｒＩａｌｅｃｏｎｏｍｙ，butbecausetheyhavegreatweightinLatinAmerican

importsandincreasingweightinJapaneseexports･Machineryandtransportequip-

mentaccountedduringl962/６５forabou[４４percentoftotalLatmAmericanlm-portB，withlittleannualvaria上i０，．９

１nthecaseofJapan-wherebetweｅｎｌ９６０ａｎｄｌ９６３[heexportpriceindexofmachi-nerｙｄｅｃｌｉｎｅｄｆｒｏｍｌＯ８ｔｏ９４２ｏ－ｔhecorrespondingshareinitstotaｌｅｘｐｍｔｓ

CommodityTradeStatistiCsl965，ｐｐ、4719-4802. ７８９ 1bid．，ｐｐ、4012-4126．

Ｔｈｅｓｔａｇｎａｔｉｏｎｏｒｔｈｅｓｈａｒｅｏｒｍａｃｈｉｎｅｍａｎｄｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔｅｑｕｉｐｍｅｎｔｉｎ

ｔｏｔａｌＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔｓｍｉｇｈｔＢｅｅｍｌｏｇｉｃａユ，ｇｉｖｅｎｉｔｓａﾕreadyhigh

value･Furthergrowthortheshare，however，ｉＢｏｎﾕypreventedby

balance-or-paymenｔｓｃｏｎｓｔｒａｉｎｔｓｏＳｉｎｃｅｃｏｎｓｕｍｅｒ－ｇｏｏｄｓｉｍｐｏｒｔｓｔｅｎｄＬｔｏ

ｂｅａｌｒｅａｄｙｒul1ycompressed，LatinAmericangovernments，ｒａｃｅｄｗｉｔｈｉｎ－

ａｄｅｑｕａｔｅｈｏ１ｄｉｎｇｓｏｆｇｏ１ｄａｎｄｒｏｒｅｉｇｎｅｘｃｈａｎｇｅｐｈａｖｅｎｏｃｈｏｉｃｅｂｕｔｔｏ

ｇｉｖｅｒｉｒｓｔｐｒｉｏｒｉｔｙｔｏｉ１ｎ瞳LintenanceI↑ｉｍｐｏｒｔＢ，ｉ、ｅ、，ｉ、】ｐｏｒｔｓｏｆｉｎｔｅｍｅ－

ｄｉａｔｅｇｏｏｄｓａｎｄｒａｗｍａｔｅｒｉａ１ｓｗｈｉｃｈａｒｅｅｓｓｅｎｔｉａ１ｔｏｍａｉｎｔａｉｎｏｕｔｐｕｔａｎｄ

ｅｍｐ１ｏｙｍｅｎｔｏＴｈｉｓｃｈｏｉｃｅｉｓｔｈｕｓｍａｄｅａｔｔｈｅｅｘｐｅｌ巳ｅｏｒａｄｄｉｔｉｏｎａユ

ユｍｐｏｒｔＢｏｆｃａｐｉｔａ１ｇｏｏｄｓ･Ｓｅｅ理tinAmericanェnsti位lteoFEcfwTomfcand Ｓｏｃﾕa1PlanJUng9 Am6rﾕcaLatinaD

蓋莞Hir:巽l;誌鶚孚;-:両;昌謡-22聖二2-2二

10Japan，§tatﾕBtﾕＣａ」Yea｡Ebook，l964,ｐ、３６０． －１２－

increasedsteadilyfrom26percentｉｎｌ９６２ｔｏ３１ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉｎｌ９６５・Thisincrease

wastheresultofanlntensifieddriveinJapan[oachievegreaterimematIonalcom-petitiveness0spurredbytheimmine､［Iiberalizationoftradeintheearlyl9609sand

bytheearlierannouncｅｍｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅＴｅｎ－Ｙｅａｒｌｎｃｏｍｅ－ＤｏｕｂｌｍｇＰ１ａｎ，whichalso

raisedbusimessmenOsexpectations・Thus,theperiodl960/６２witncssedthefastest increaseincapitalaccumulationinjapanintenyears,and,withinthistrcnd,the rateofincreasecorrespondingtomanufac[uringindustries-particularlyironand

steeLchemicalandmacIUinery-wastwiceashigh(４０percenKperyear)astherate

forothcrindus[ries（ｌ８ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒｙｅａｒ)beIweenl955andl962，ｉｎｒｅａｌ［erms・ｌｌ

Ｂｏｔｈｔｈｅｐｅｒｉｏｄｗｅａｒｅｆｏｃｕｓｍｇｏｎ－１９６２/65,duringwhichinvestmentcontinuedto

be-ａｎｄｔｈｅｔｙｐｅｏｆｇｏｏｄｓｗｅａｒｅｅｘａｍｉｎｍｇｔｈｕｓａｐｐｅａｒｔｏｂｅｗｅｌｌｓｕｉｔｅｄＩｏastudy

inwhichJapaneseinternationalcompetitivenessisrelevan[． ●

LimitingthenouranalysistoSectｉｏｎ７ｏｆｔｈｅＳＩＴＣ/Rev，namcly，Machineryand

Equipment,exportsfromJapantoLatinAmericagrewbetweenl954andll“ (figuresforl953werenotavailable)from＄２８millionto＄l22miIlion,ｏｒabout15.8

percentperyear,whereastotalexportsfromJapaｎｉｎｔｈｅｓａｍｅｃａｔｅgoryrosefrom

＄202millionto＄1,958mil1ion，ｏrapproximately25percentperyear、Again，its

salcstoadvancedeconomiesgrewabovethataverage：Japaneseexportstothe

UnitedStatesgrewfrom＄２４million[ｏ＄377mIllIonandtoWesternEuropefrom＄３

millionto＄254millionbetweenl954andl9“，ｏｒ３１ａｎｄ５６ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒｙｅａｒｒｅｓ－

ｐｅｃｔｉvely･TheWestEuropeanratenaturallｙｏｗｅｓｉｔｓｈｉｇｈｏｒｄｅｒｔｏａｌｏｗｉｎｉｔｉａｌ

value，buttherateolincreasewasneverthelessverysteepeveryyearthroUgｈｌ９５７０

ｗｈｅｎｉｔｒｅａｃｈｅｄ＄４２million・Betweenl957andl964，［ｈｅｒａｔｅｄｅｃｌＩｎｅｄｔｏ３１ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔ

ｐｅryear，Itisinterestingtonotethatduringthemidandlate1950.s､whenJapanese

heavyiuBdustrieswerenotyetimternationallycompetitive，LatinAmerica，ｔｈｅＵｎｉ【ed

StatesandWesternEuropeboughtroughlycomparableamountsofjapanesemachin-eryamdrranspomequipment0withLatinAmericatendiｎｇｔｏｅｘｃｅｅｄｉｎａｎｙｏｎｅｙｅａｒ

ｏｎｅｏｆ［hetwoothereconomies，ａｎｄｓｏｍｅｔｉｍｅｓｂｏｔｈ･Ａｆｔｅｒｌ９５９Ｄｈｏｗｅｖｅｒ，ｔｈｅ

ＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓｂｅｇａｎｔｏｏｕｔｄistanceLa[inAmerIcapercepUbly，andWesternEurope

ｕｌＪａｐａｎ， ２７ａｎｄ ECononjicP1anningAgencylEconomicSurveyofjapan，ｌ９６Ｌ６２ｐｐ、２８． －１３－

Lat1nA1nerﾕcabplaceユnJapaneseBxporLtrade didlikewiseafterl961･ Thequestionnaturallyariseswhetherthislowrelativevalueduringthel960os inLatmAmericanparticipationintheJapaneseexport［radewasduetoitsdwindling participationinworldtradeingeneral，orwhetheritmaynotratherreflecttosome unknownexten［ａｌｓｏａｌａｃｋｏfresponsebytheLatinAmericanimportmarkettothe increasingcompe[itivenessofJapaneseexpm｢｢goods． InordertolookintothisqUestionDwemayconvenientlyanalysetherelationsof fourvariablesinthiscategoryofgoods,namely,exportstotheworldlrom[he worldand1romJapan,andexportstoLatinAmerica｣romtheworldand1romJapan． Ⅱweemployseverallevellingassumptions，suchashomogeneityofgoodsDperfect competition，equalfreightcostsIrrespectiveofdis[ance，perfectknowledge，、o balance-of-paymentsconstramts，equalcredIt［acilitiesDe[ｃ､，theratiobetweenthe firsttwovalｕｅｓｏｕｇｈｔｔｏｂｅｔｈｅｓａｍｅａｓｔｈｅｒａｔｉｏｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅｓｅｃｏｎｄｔｗｏｖａｌｕｅｓ,ａｎｄ [hequotientbetweenthelaｎｅｒａｎｄｔｈｅｆｏｒｍｅｒｒａｔｉｏｓｏｕｇｈｔｔｏｂｅｕｎｉｔｙ･Thusoif Japan1sshareinworldexportsofmachineryandtransportequipmentisone-twenti-eththenJapan'sshareinLatinAmericanimportsofthesamecategory,givenour assumptions，oughttobeone-twenttethalso・ａｎｄｔｈｅｑｕｏｔｉｅｎｔ－５ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｖｅｒ５ｐｅｒ ｃｅ､ｔ－ｗｏｕｌｄｂｅｕｎｉｔｙ・ＴｏｔｈｅｅｘｔｅｎｔｔｈａｔｔｈｅｆｉｒｓｔｒａｔｉｏｉｓｌａｒｇｅｒｏｒｓｍａＵｅｒｔｈａｎ ｔｈｅｓｅｃｏｎｄ,[heimensi[yofJapan1sexporttradeisbeloworaboveanormalexpec[蚤 tion･Thequotientthusobtained-[hecoefficien上ｏｆｔｒａｄｅｉｎｔｅｎｓｉｔｙ－ｃａｎｂｅｒｅａｄｏｆｆ directlyastheproportlonofthatnormalexpectationthatｉｓｉｎｆａｃｔｒｅａｌｉｚｅｄ，ｓｏｔｈａｔ， forexample，acoefficientofO､５０meansthatLatinAmericahasboughtinproportion halfasmanyimportsfromJapanastheworldasawhole,andacoefficientof2・OO meansthatItbougn［ｔｗｌｃｅａｓｍｕｃｈ・Thiscoefflcienthastheaddedadvantagethatit elimina[esoutrighttheeffectsofdifferentialgrowthratesｉｎｔｏtalimportsamong variouscoumries，ｓｍｃｅｉ上relatestogivenyearsratherthanｔｏａｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｉｎｔｉｍｅ； ｓｏtha［theinfluenceofarecedingparticipatIonbyLa[inAmericainworldtradeis precluded． ｌ［isalsoconvenienttonarrowdownｏｕｒ［imehorizontothefour-yearperiod l962/６５，ａｎｄｔｏｂｒｉｎｇｉｎｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａ上esimportmarketaBapointofreIerenceamd －１４－

comparisonThismarketpossessessomeremarkablefeaturesthatensureit

againstunwarranteddeviationSfromtheidealnorminitschoiceofsuppliersDso

thatitsbehaviourisindicativeofhowotherimportmarketsmightbehaveifthey

weremasimilarposition･Ｃｈｉｅｆａｍｏｎｇｔｈｃｓｅｆｅａｔｕｒｅｓｉｓｔｈｅｌａcｋofconstraints

imposedbybalance-of-paymentsdifficulties・ＴｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓｉｓｏｆｃｏｕｒｓｅｕｎｄｅｒ‐

goingcertainstrainsolmitspaymentsposi[iｏｎ，buttheyareofatotaI1ydifferent

ｎａｔｕｒｅｆｒｏｍｔｈｏｓｅｆａｃｅｄｂｙｔｈｅＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎｃｏｕｎｔｒｉｅｓ，andtheyimposenolimi-tationwhatsoeverontheexchangeofgoodsandservices・Asecondfeatureismat

thecreditsupplyavailableathometoAmericaｎｃｏｎｓｕｍｅｒｓａｎｄｉｎｖｅｓｔｏｒｓｉｓｏｆｓｕｃｈ

ｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｔｈａｔｉｔｍａｋｃｓｕｐｆｏｒａｎｙlackofsupplieroscreditabroad・Ａｔｈｉｒｄｆｅａｔｕｒｅ

ｉｓｔｈａｔｔｈｅＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎｌｍｐｏｒｔｍａｒｋｅｔisendowedwithahiglulydevelopedsensitivity

toshiftsincomparativeadvantageamongalternaIivesuppliers，whetherdomes1ic

orfOreignOIhankstotheexcellentinformationservicesthatarereadilyavailablem

theformoIconsumersoandinvestors，repor【ｓｏｆｖariouskindsDDecisionstakcnon

thebasisofIhisup-to-dateinformationcanbeacteduponwithoutinhibitionowinglo

theabovementionedavailabilityofcreditandtothelackoipaymcntsconstrainsls･

Finally,inspiteofsomediscriminationagainstJapanesegoods，notablyintheform

of，Ovoluntaryo，quotaSattheorigin，suchdiscriminationislesssevercｔｈａｎｍｏｌｌ】er

industriaIcountries．

Comingbacktotheanalysisoflradeintcnsity,Japan,sexports[〕Imachmcry

an(IlrjnsportequipmenltoLatinAmｅｒｉｃａａｍｏｕｎｔｅｄｉｎｌ９６２ｍ＄l35milli()､，ｓｏＩｈａｔ

ｉｌｇｓｈａｒｅｏｆｔｈｅＬａｔｉｎＡｍｃｒicanimportmarkct，whichｔｏ[alled＄2,931,ｗａｓ４．６ｐｅｒ

cent、Japan1stolalexportsoftheｓｃｇｏｏｄｓａｍｏｕｍｅｄｔｏＳｌ,253million,Eivingita

shareof4､４percentoftheworldimportmarket，whiclutotalled＄28,324miIlion，

f､０．b・LatinAmerica，sintensitycoefficientinitsimportsfromJapanwasIhcre【orｅ

1.05,reflectingabetterthannormalposition･

InthefO11owingycars，however，inrhefaceofasteadyincreaseinJapanese

competitivencss，thecoefficientdcclinedsuccessivelylo０．８４，０．７４ａｎｄ0.65．ＴＩ１ｅ

ｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｃｅｏｆｔｈｉｓｄｅｃｌｉｎｅｃａｎbegraspedmoreclearlybyreferrmgｔｏｔｈｅａｂｓｏｌｕｔｅ

ｆｉｇｕｒｅｓｆｏｒｌ９６２ａｎｄ1９６５．ＩｎｂｏｔｈｙｅａｒｓｔｏｔａｌｅｘｐｏｒｔｓｏｆｍａｃｈmeryandtraIusport

equipmentfromJapantoLatinAmericaamounledtothesamevalue,sl35mlllion．

－１５－

LatlnAmerﾕcabplaceェnJapaneseexporLtrade

SimiIarly，totalLatinAmericanimportsmthiscategoryremainedroughlyatthe

samelcvel，approximately＄3,OOOmillion・ExportsfromallcountriestoallcDunt-riespostcdanaverageincreａｓｅｏｆｌＯｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒｙｅａｒ，ｆｒｏｍ＄28,324millionto

$38,891milliom・AndJapan0sexportsincreaseｄａｔａｎａｎｎｕalaveragerateof29per

cent，climbingfrom＄1,253millionto＄2,“３million・Asaresultofthesechanges，

LatinAmerica`sshareinJapanesetotalexpor[sinthiscategoryofgoodswasmore

thanhalvedduringthelbur-yearperiDd，decliningfrom１０．７ｔｏ５.ｌｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅ

ｌｏｌａｌ･Ｐａｒｔｏｆｔｈｉｓｄｅｃｌｉｎｅｗａｓｎａｔurallyaccountedforbyalowerrelativeparticipa-lionmworIdtrade；butthedecliningcoefficientofintensityunmistakablypointstoa

packageofcausesunrelatedtotI1islowerparticipation・IfLatinAmericaosintensi-tycoefficientwitheachofitstradingparmershasremainedconstant，itsimportsof

machineryandtransportcquipmemfromJapanwouldhaveamountedin1965to＄217

l2

milliondollars，ｏｒｎｅａｒｌｙｏｎｅｈａｌｌｍｏｒｅ［l1an1hGactualfigureuandｉ[ssharein

JapallesetotalcxportsinthiscategorywouldaccordinglyhavedecIinedonlyfrom

l0.7ｔｏ８．４perccntofthelotal；thisdeclinewouldthenhavebeenascribableinits

cntirervtoLalinAmericaosdiminishingparticipationmworldtrade．【［ｍａｙｂｅｎｏｔ－

ご

edparenlIlcticallythatotherdevelopingareasDwhichhavealsoseentheirweightm

inlcrnationaltradeerodeｄｉｎｒｅｃｅｍｔｉｍｅｓ，haveabsorbedrelativelygreater

amount苗ofJapaneseexports・Tl1us,Japaneseexportsofmachineryarudtransport

cquipmentto1heunderdevelopedworld-excludingLatinAmericaandexcluding

ships笛oldtoPanamaandLiberia-roseｆｒｏｍ＄Ｓ１７ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎｉｎｌ９６２ｔｏ＄８７４million

inl96S，ｌ３ｕｔａｎａｖｅｒａｇｅｒａｔｅｏｆｌ９ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒｙｅａｒ．

BycontrastwithLatinAmcrica，theshareheldbythcUnitedStatesintotal

Japanesecxportsofmachineryandtransportequipmentrosesteadilyfroml9to23

percen[ofthetotalinthesamefour-yearpericduincreasmginvalue

from＄２２４millionto＄５５４million・MTheUnitedStatestrademtensity

1２２１７ 38,891 ｌ３ＵｌｎｉｔｅｄＮａｔｉｏｎｓ， ＭＴｈｅｓｅｔｗｏｒｉαuｒ and1965. -dataａｓ］eeportedbythe ecorresponding lnｉ１１ｉｏｎｒｅｓｐｅｃｔｉｖｅ１ｙ．

ＴｈｅｓｅｔｗｏｒｉｇｕｒｅｓｒｅｌａｔｅｔｏＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓｉｍｐｏｒｔｄ

ＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓＣｕｓｔｏｍｓｆｒｏｍｉｔｓｏｗｎｃｌｅａｒａｎｃｅ．The

Japaneseexportfiguresare＄239ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎａｎｄ３５７４

Ｖａ１ｕｅｓａｒｅｆ･ｏｏｂ･ｉｎｂｏｔｈｃａｓｅｓ． －１６－

l5althoughexhibitingaslightlydownwardtrend，wasremarkablyhigh，

Coefficient，

ｎａｍｅｌｙＤ２･ｌ８ｉｎｌ９６２ａｎｄ２･Ｏ６ｉｎｌ９６５･ThiscountrythusshowedapreferencefOr

Japaneseproductsinitsimportsofmachineryandtransportequipmentmorethan

twiceass[ｒｏｎｇａｓｔｈａｔｓｈｏｗｎｂｙｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄａｓａwhole，whereasLatinAmerica

showedapreferencewhichml962wasslightlyabovethａｔｓｈｏｗｎｂｙｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄａｓａ

ｗｈｏｌｅ，andlaterdeclinedsteadilytotwothirds・

Ｉｔｉｓｃｏｌｗｅｎｉｅｎｔｆｉｎａｌｌｙｔｏｆｕｒｔｈｅｒnarrowdowntheanalysistospecificcatego-riesofgoods,attheleveloffourdigitsoftheSITC/Rev,ａｎｄｔｏｌｉｍｉｔｔｈｅｐｅｒｉｏｄｔｏ

ｏｎｅｙｅａｒ，１９“･Thismethodpermitsamorepreciseseparationofgoods，ａｌｔｈｏｕｇｈ

ｉｔｉｓｗｅｌｌｔｏｂｅａｒｉｎｍｉｎｄ［hat，ｅｖｅｎａｔｔｈｉｓｌｅｖｅｌ，ｔｈｅdefinitionsarenotnarrow

enough，sothatmanydifferenlandnotmu[uallysubstitutablearticlesenｔｅｒｉｎｔｏ，

say，InsulatedWireCable・Evenforapparentlyidemicalgoods，eacl1brandmay

presenttothebuyerdifferencesthatarenotpurelysubjective･However,giventhe

variednumberofsubgroupstobeconsidered，theprevalenceofagiventendencyiｎ

ｍｏｓｔｏｆｔｈｅｍｃａｎｎｏｔｂｕｔｂｅｔａｋｅｎａｓaprobablyvalidindicationoIanabnormaltrade

pattern･ProducersofgWentypesofcommodities，narrowlydefined，tendtobe

equallycompetitivea上ｔｈｅmargin，since，ｉｆｔｈａｔｗｅｒｅｎｏｔｔｈｅｃａｓｅ，ｔｈｅｍｏｒｅｅｆｆｉｃｉ－

ｅｎｔｏｎｅｓｗｏｕｌｄｎｏｔｆoregotheopportunityofaddmgtotheirownoperationsthepro-ducts，similarmthosetheyalreadyproduＣｅ，whichotherproduceinefficiently･

ＡＩＳＯ，varietywithinagivensubgroupisfoundmostlyinthecaseofproducergoods；

ｍａｎｙconsumergoodsarefairlyuniform，orclosesubstitu[ｅｓ，ｓｏｔｈａｔｉｆｔｈｅｓａｍｅ

ｇｅｎｅｒａｌｔｒｅｎｄｉｓdiscernibleinbothcategoriesjthereliabilityof上ｈｅｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎ

ｍａｙｂｅｄｅｅｍｅｄｔｏｂｅgreater． TablelVcontainsaUmachineryandtransportfour-digitSubgroupsregarding whichLatinAmericanimportsfrom,alldJapaneseexportsto,[heworldhadavalue ofmorethan＄lOmillion,afigurewhichwaschosenasbeingreasonablysubstan-ＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓＩｏｗｎｅｘｐｏｒｔｓｏｒｍａｃｈｉｎｅｒｙａｎｄｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔｅｑｕｉｐｎｅｎｔｈａｖｅ ｂｅｅｎｄｅｄｕｃｔｅｄｒｒｃｍｔｈｅｗorldtotalsbe2oreobtainingthecoｅｆｆｉｃｉｅｎｔ； ｗｈｉｃｈｏｔｈｅｍｍｓｅｗｏｕｌｄｂｅｈｉｇｈｅｒｏＴｈｅｗｏｒ１ｄ９ｉｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｒｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄ ＳｔａｔｅｓｉｎｌｐｏｒｔａｎｄｅｘｐｏｒｔｄａｔａＰｒｅｌａｔｅｓｔｏａｌｌｃｏｕｎｔｒｉｅｓリｉｎｃｌｕｄｉｎｇｔｈｅ Ｓｏｃｌｐ１ｉｓｔｏｎｅｓ． Ⅱ５ －１７－

LaL1nAmerｴCaもplacelnJapaneseexporttrade

tiaLl6Thereare25suchsubgroups，ｗｉ【llmedianvaluesof＄34.8ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎｉｎｔｈｅ

ｃａｓｅｏｆＬａ[ｉｎAmerica,stotalf､０．b・imports,ａｎｄ＄31.7mjllioninthecaseofJapanos

totaIexports・

LatinAmericahadacoefficientbｅｌｏｗｕｎｉｔｙｆｏｒｅｌｅｖｅｎｏｆｔｈｅｓｕｂgroups，ａｎｄｔｈｅ

ＵｍｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓｌｏｒｓｉｘｏｆｔｈｅｍ･TheseroughIycomparablefiguresconcealDhoweVer，

gmaterdifferenccs・Ｉｎｔｃｒｍｓｏｆｖａｌｕｅ，theelevengroupsaccouminthecaseof

LatinAmericalOr28percentofthetotallistedinthetable,whereas【hesixgroups

accountm［ｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｌａｔｅｓｆｏｒｏｎｌｙ２．５ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｆｉｔｓｌｉｓｔｃｄｉｍｐｏｒｔｓ．

’［isthisdiscrepancｙｏｆｍｏｒｅｔｈａｎｌＯ８１ｉｎｔｈｅｖａｌｕｅ月thatissignificant，ratherthan

thediscrepancyo「２:linthenumberofsubgroups・

ThcsignificancetobeattachedtotｈｅｓｉｘｓｕｂｇｒｏｕｐｓｗＩｔｈｌｏｗｃｏｅｆｆＩｃｉｅｎｔｓｉｎｔｈｅ

ｃａｓｅｏｆｔＩｕｅＵｎｉ[edStatesmustbefurtherquali[ｉｅｄｂｙ【hefollowingconsiderations：

Ｔｗｏｏｆｔｈｅｓｉｘｓｕｂｇｒｏups-MetalworkingMachineryNES，andLorriesandTrucks-relatetoUnitedStatesimportmarketsofverylowvalue：＄4.6miIlionand＄6.9

miIlionrespec【ivcly・ＴｈｉｓｌｏｗｖａｌｕｅｍｅａｎｓｎｏｔｏｎｌｙＩｏｗｗｅｉghtbutalsolittlerelia-bili【ｙｏｇｉｖｅｎｌｈｅｙｅａｒ－ｔｏ－ｙｅａｒｆｌｕctuationstowhichrelativevaluesareexposedtoin

shaIIowmarkets･Ｆｏｒａｔｈｉｒｄｇｒｏｕｐ－ｌｎｓｕｌａｒｅｄＷｉｒｅCable-thecoefficientisbe-Iow,butverynearto，unitｙ(0.98)．Afourthsubgroup-Ship-yieldsafalseresult，

asalarge,aMoughunknownproportionofAmericanshipimportsfromJapanand

clsewhereenterrhroughPanamaandLiberja・l7Therefore，omlWwosubgroupsof-にrinlerest-Pis【onEnginesNonAirandTextlleMachinery-whIchTe】ａｔｅｔｏｓｕｂ－

ｓ[antiaIimportmarketsof＄lO6millionand＄６１miUionrespec[ively･Theircoeffi-cientsoO､３８ａｎｄ０．２１，runcountertoanormalexpec[aｔｉｏｎｏａｎｄａｒｅｅｖｅｎｌｏｗｅｒｔｈａｎ

l6Therearetwoexceptionstothisstatement8a）エｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆＤｏｍｅｓｔｉｃ

ＢｌｅｃｔｒｉｃＥｑｕｉｐｍｅｎｔＤｏｎｌｙｔｈｒｅｅｄｉｇｉｔｇｒｏｕｐｓａｒｅｕｓｅｄｂｅｃａｕｓｅＪａｐａｎｄｏｅｓ

ｎｏｔｒｅｐｏｒtthefour-digitbreakdowninthisparticularcase；ｂ）Ｌａｔｉｎ

Ａｍｅｒｉｃａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔｓｏｆｍｏｔｏｒｃｙｃｌｅｓａｎｄｓｃｏｏｔｅｒｓｗｅｒｅｉｎｃｌｕｄｅｄｅｖｅnthough

totalimportswereonly＄7.6nlillion，owingtothciｴ･comparabilitywith

importsorｍｏｔｏｒｃａｒｓ。

ｉＩＡｓｏｆＪｕｎｅ〕０，１９６０，４５４oceangoingvessels，representing６，４９０Ｐ５３３

ｇｒｏＢｓｔｏｎＢｏｆｓｈｉｐｐｉｎｇＤｗｅｒｅｅｓｔｉｌｎａｔｅｄｂｙｔｈｅｌｕ１ａｒｉｔｉｍｅＡｄｍｉｎｉｓｔｒａｔｉｏｎｔｏ

ｂｅｏｗｎｅｄｂｙＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓｃｏｍｐａｎｉｅｓａｎｄｔｈｅｉｒａｉＴｉ１ｉａｔｅｓａｎｄｒｅｇｉｓｔｅｒｅｄ

ｕｎｄｅｒｒｏｒｅｉｇｎｆｌａｇｓ．…Ｐana｣､ａ，ＬｉｂｅｒｉａａｎｄｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＫｉｎｇｄｏｍｅａｃｈ

accountedfoｒlOOormoreofthevesse1sinvolved'１．UnitedStates，聖ｅ

ｌ鵲÷箒猯學;:器91::?rf,:2,t:；澱Ｐｕ…u……(H･…

1７ －１８－

ｔｈｅcorrcspondmgLatinAmerlcancoe[ficients． ｌｎｌｈｅｃａｓｅｏｌＬａｔｉｎＡｍｃｒｉｃａｉｔＩｓｆｏｕｎｄｉｎｓｔｅａｄｔｈａｔｏｎｌｙｔｈｒｅｅｏｆｔheelcven

subgroupshavevaIuesbelow＄３０miUionfortotaIimports，ｗｉｔｈ［heIowesta［＄l5

milIion・Onlyonesubgroup-ScwingMachineｓ－ｉｓｎｅａｒｕｎｉｔｙ(0.98)，ｂｕｔｉｔｉｓｎｏＩａｓ

ｎｅａｒａｓｔｈｃａｂｏｖｅ－notedsubgroupintheUnitedS[a【ｅｓ・Ｆｏｒｔｈｅｒｅｍａｉｎｉｎｇｌ４ｓｕｂ‐

groups，whereLa(ｉｎAmerica,scocf[ｉｃｉｅｎｔｉｓａｂｏｖｅｕｎｉＩｙ，ｏｎｌｙｍｆｏｕｒｃａｓｅｓｄｏｅｓ

ｌｈｉｓｃｏｅｆｌｉｃｉｅｎｔｓｕｒｐａｓｓ『ｈａｔｏｆｔｈｃＵｎｉｔｅｄＳ[ates，ａｎｄｔＩｕｅｍａｒｇｉｎｏｆｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｃｅｉ爵

ｓｉｇｎｉｆｉｃａｍＩｉｎｏｎＩｙｏｎｅｃａｓｅ－MacI1ineParｔｓａｎｄＡｃｃｅｓｇｏｒｉｃｓＮＥＳ－ｗｈｅｒｅＬａ【in

AmcricarcachedanintcnsiIyof１．６３against０．３５ｉｎｌｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓ， ｏｆ【hetcnabovc-unitvcoefficien【ｓｗｌｌｅｒｅｌｈｅＵｍｌｃｄＳｔａｌｅｓsurpassesLatinAmerlcaづ themarg1u1tendstobequitewide，tI1cmoststrikingexdlmplebeingSwitchgcar（1.73 ｉｎＬａｔｉｎＡｍｃｒｌｃａａｎｄ７・llintheUnitcdStates),TelecommunicationsEquipment NEＳ（１．０３ａｎｄ4.15),andElectricLamps,Bulbs（2.13ａｎｄ5.16)．Thesediscrepan-cieRmaybebroughｔＩ１ｏｍｅｍｏｒｅｃｌｃａｒｌｙｉｆｗｅｃomparecoeflicicntsabove2.00, Tatluerthanaboveunity・ＴｈｅＵｎｉｔｃｄＳ[a[eshaselevensubgroupsaIIhatlulgllleveI， whcreasLa[inAmericahasonlythree･ＩｉｗｅｅｘｃｌｕｄｅｓＩｌａｌｌｏｗｍａｒｋｅｔｓ－ｔI1oscbc-Iow＄l5million-thentheUnitedSta[eｓhas9subgroupsandLatmAmericanone、 Wemightcontinuealongthi＆linebynotingthat，whereasLalinAmericadoesnol reachacoefIiciごn【ｏ「３.ＯＯｉｎａｎｙｃａｓｅ，ｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳ[ａｔｅｓｈａｓｔｈｒｅｅ宮ubgroupsabove ３．００，ｏｎｅａｂｏｖｅ４００，ｏｎｃａｂｏｖｅ５･ＯＯａｎｄｔｗｏａｂｏｖｅ7.00 ｌｔｉｓｉＩ１ｕｍｉｎａｔｍｇ[oconsiderLa[ｉｎAmerica・gimportsoflwojapaneseinves『or lgoodswluicharcsomctimesrefeｒｒｅｄｔｏｉｎｔｈｅｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃａｎｄＩｒａｄｃｌiteratureof JapanasexportbeengoｏｄｓＭｏｒ.,starper｢ormers.,ｏｗＩｎｇ[olheirhighdegreeofin-eD ternationaIcompetitivene弱．Thesearebearingsandships・ Ｂｙｌ９ｂｊ４ｂｅａｒｉｎｇｓｌ】uｄｂｅｃｏｍｅａｈｉｇｂｌｙｖａｌｕｅｄｅｘｐｏｒｔｉｔｅｍ，ｗｉｔｈａｈｉｇｈｄｅｇｒｃｃｏｆ ｔｃｃｈｎｏｌＯｇｙｍｔｈどirproduction・Ａｌ【ｈｅｒｉｓｋｏｆｃｎｃｕｍｂｅｒｉｎｇｔｈｅｒｅａｄｅｒｗｉthaspate offigurc月，ｔｈｅａｂｓｏｌｕｔｅｖａｌｕｃｓａｎｄｔｈｅｇｒＤｗｔｈｒａにｓｆｏｒａｓｕｃｃｅｓｓｉｏｎｏｆｙｅａｒｓｗｉｌＩ ｂｃgiven，■ｏａｓｒｏｐｒｏｖｉｄｅａｍｏｒｅｄｅｔａｉｌｅｄｉｎｄicationofthepositionofthesepro-duct＄inworldmarkets･Betweenl960andl901DJapaneseexportsofbearings －１９－

LatlnAmerﾕcabPlaceユnJapaneseexporttrade

ｇｒｅｗｌ８ｆｒｏｍ＄7.Smillionto＄３８million，atannualratesof,successively，１００，５０，

２１ａｎｄ３９ｐｅｒｃｅｎ[・SalestotheUnitedStates,ｗｈｉｃｈｉｎｌ９６０ｈａｄａｍｏｕｎｔｅｄｔｏ＄2.7

mlllion，increasedinthefollowingyearsｔｏ＄4.0,＄6.5,＄9.6and，ｉｎ1964,t０５１３．９

million;salestoWestGermany，ｉ[selfamajorproducer，increasedsimilarlyinthe

sameperiodfromS225,000ｔ０＄1.7,＄3.5,＄3.9and，ｊｎｌ９０４ｔｏ＄5.1million、Bycon-trast,JapaneseexportstoLatinAmericadeclinedsligh[lyfrom＄2.66millionto

52・S7million，ｉｎｔｈｅｌａｃｅｏＩａｎｅｘｐａｎｓｉｏｎｏｆｌＯｐｅｒcentintheLatinAmerlcanim- portsmarketforbeariI1gs，whiｃｈｆｒｏｍ＄34.6millloninl904increasedto＄38.1mil-lioninrhefoUowingyear･Asaresult，LatinAmerlcaoscoefficientdeclinedfrom

０．８３ｉｎｌ９６３１９ｌｏＯ､４２ｉｎ1904.

Regardingships,Japaneseyardswereat[heI1cightofIheircompetitivenesｓｉｎ

ｌ９“･Ｔｈｅｙｗｅｒｅｑｕｏｔｍｇｐｒｉｃｅｓａｓｍｕｃｈａｓ２５ｐｅｒcentbelowEuropeansl1ipbuiId-zoTheirshareofworldproductiｏｎｈａｄｒｉｓｅｎｌｏ４３ｐｅｒｃｃｌｕｔｏｆｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌ－ｆｒｏｍ

ｅｒａ

２８ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉｎｌ９６３－ａｎｄｔｈｅｉｒｓｈａｒｅｏｆｗｏｒｌｄｅｘｐｏｒｔｓｗａｓａｐｐｒｏｘｉｍａｔｅｌｙ３０ｐｅｒ

zuTheirsalesincluded＄l21million[oWeslemEurope,＄３９millionto

cenL

Panama,＄l86millIontoLiberiaand＄４３milliontoAsia・Byconlrast，Latin

AmericapcxcludingPanama，bouglltonlys3millioU1,orslightlyless【hanlOpercent

ofitsto[alimports,ｗｈｉｃｈａｍｏｕｎｔｅｄｔｏ＄30.6million･Ａｓ･ａresultLatinAmericaos

coefficien［ｗａｓｏｎｌｙ０．３１whereasmthepreviousyeari1hadｂｅｅｎ0.b922whichm-dicatesthatLati、America‘sprefcrenceforJapaneseshipswas、otonIyquitelow

byanystandardsduring（I】ｅtwoWarsconsidercd，ｂｕｔ，ａｓｗｉ[hbearings，ｉｔｓｈｏｗｓａ

ｌ８ＴＩｈｅｆｉｇｕｒｅｓａｒｅｔａｋｅｎｆｒｏｍＪａｐａｎＥｘｔｅｒｎａｌＴｒａｄｅＯｒｲマａｎｉｚａｔｉｏｎ９ＦｃｒｅｉｇＴｌ

_{ｚ‐ｄｅｏｆＪａ座旦，variousissueS、}

l9Theotherl963magnitudesusedtoderivethecoeiTicientwere8Total

Japaneseexports，822.7million；Totalworldexports，＄堅7.0mi1lion･

ｇｏ些旦－２２聖聖些竺，London，２８Novemberl964，ｐ、1007.

２０ ２０ _{ｿb４，ｔｏｔａｌｗｏｒｌｄｅｘＤｏｒｔＲ⑪}

ＰＳ〔bythel8countries〕amountedto

exportsamountedto鼬８１ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎ

Ｏｔｈｅｒｒｉｇｕｒｅｓｉｎｔｈｅａｂｏｖｅｐara-ternalTradeOrganization，座方eign

ａｕｅｏエＪａＤａｎｌ９６

Theotherl963magnitudesusedtoderivethecoerricientwere8Total

JaPaneseexports，３３３１.Omillion；Totalworldexports（１８countries)８

８１，４５０．６million． 2２ －２０－

[endencytodecline･Ａｔｗｏ－ｙｅａｒｓｐａｎｉｓｏｆｃｏｕｒｓｅｖｅｒｙｓｈｏｒｔｔｏｄｒａｗａｎｙｆｉｒｍｃｏｎ－ ｃＩｕｓｉｏｎｓ，andtheseconclusionsareonlytentative・Thisten[ativenessmusthowever bequalifiedbytheobservation［hatwhenaproductisprovensosuccessful，evena shortperiodsufficestodrawra[hervalidconclusionｓ，and，【husonecannothelp suspectingthattradewasbelow【hepotenttal･ Oneobservation［hatappearstosuggestjtselffｒｏｍＴａｂｌｅｌＶｉｓ［haIDforsimiIar products，LatInAmerica，stradecoefficientinitsimportsfromJapantendstobe higherforｃｏｎｓｕｍｅｒｇｏｏｄｓｔｈａｎｆｏｒｉｎｖｅｓｌｏｒｇｏｏｄｓ－ａｌｔｈｏｕ贋ｈｉｎａｎｙｃａｓｅｉｔｃｏｎ【i-nuestobcbelowlha【oftheUnitedSta【es・InlhecascofJapaneseexportsofｓｅｗｍｇ

２．ＬａＵＩｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａ

ｍａｃｈｉｎｃｓ‘ｆｏｒｉｎｓｔａｎｃｅ，ｔｈｅｂｕｌｋｏｆｗｈｉｃｈａｒｅｆｏｒｈｏｕｓｅｈｏｌｄｕｓｅ， hasacoefficienIofO､９４ＤｗｈｉｃｈｉｓｍｏｒｅｔｈａｎｄｏｕｂｌｅｔＩｕｅｃｏｅfricientfortextilemach卜 ｎｅｒｙ，whichｉｓ0．３７．ＴｈｅｇａｍｅｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｃａｎｂｅｍａｄｅｆＯrradiobroadcastreceiv-ers（1.43)ascomparedtotclecommunicationsequipmentNES（1.03)and，inthe molorindustry,topassengermotorvehicles（1.67）ａｎｄｍｏ【orcyclcs（1.31）ａｓ a照ainstI()rrie耳andtruckB(0.55)．Onecxplanalionmavbethat，ｏｎｔｈｅｏｎｃｈａｎｄ， じonろｕｍｃｒｇｏｏｄｓａｒｅｎｏｔｌｉｍｉｔｅｄｂｙｔｈｃｓａｍetypeofcreditconsidcration筋asinvcsl-l10cnlguodsarc，ａｎｄＤｏｎｔｈｃｏｔｈｅｒ０ｔｈａｔｏｓｉｎｃｅｔｈｅＣｏｎｓｕｍｅｒ'５ｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎｉｇａｐｅｒｓｏｎａｌ ｏｎＣｊＩｌＪ，preろｕｍａｂｌｙ０ａｌｓｏａｃｒｉ【ｉｃａｌｏｎｅ－ｇｉｖｃｎｔｈｅｈｉｇｈａｂ葛oluleandreIa【ivevalue

I)ＩじunsumcrdurablesinLatinAmerlcancountries-ilismorecarefullyｗｅｉｇｈｅｄ

ｕｎｄａｌａｒｇｃｒａｍｏｕｎ【ｏｆｉｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｉｓｓｉｆｔｅｄｂｃｆｏｒｅｒｅａｃｈｉｎｇｉｔｔｈａｎｉｎ［ｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆ ｄｃｃｉｓｉｏｎｓｌａｋｅｎｂｙｆｉｒｍｓａndgovernmemIs．

Thcprecedmgobserva【ionmightseemtobecontradic[cdbythcverylowpre- IercnceLatinAmericanconsumer葛ａｕａｃｈｔｏ【woconsumerproducts，teIevisionre-ceiver瑞andbicycles･ＴｈｅｆｏｒｍｅＴｈａｖｃａｃｏｅｆｆｉｃｉｅｍｏｉｏｎｌｙ0.35,ｉｎｓｐｉｔｅｏｆｔｈｅｉｒ ｗｃｌＩ－ｋｎｏｗｎｉｎternationalcompeti【iveness･ＩｎｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓ，ｆｏｒｉｎｓ【ance，ｗｈｅｒｅ

ｍｏｒｅｌｈａｎ９９ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｆａＵｉｍｐｏrtedTVsetscomefromjapan,IIlccorresponding

c⑪どｆｆｉｃｉｅｎｔｉｓ３,86．Ｔｈｅｄｉｓｐａｒｉｌｙｉｎｍｉｓｃａｓｃｌｓｐｒｏｂａｂｌｙｄｕｅ［odiffercncesin 瓢ructurebetweenbothimportmarket巴．１f，ｉｎｓｔｅａｄｏｆｃｏｍｐａｒｉｎｇｌｈｅｉｍｐｏｒｔｍａｒ－ ｋｕｌ葛ｗｅｗｃｒｅｌｏｃｏｍｐａｒｅｔｈｅｇｅｎｅｒａｌｍａｒｋｅ［-ｉｍｐｏｍａｎｄｄｏｍｅｓｔｉｃ－ｉｔｗｏｕｌｄｂｃ ForeignCapitalResearchSociGEJ，JapaneseエnduBtryエ9“（Japan， ２３．７重犀、9 1964）， 【)．８２． －２１－

▽ ＬａＬ１ｎＡｍｅｒｌｃａｓｐｌａｃｅｌｎＪａｐａｎｅｓｅｅｘｐｏｒＬＬＴａｄｅ foundthatbothintheUnitedStatcsandiｎＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａｃｏｎｓｕｍｅｒｓｔｅｎｄ【Dfavour Americanbrandsforafirstset，andjapaneselDrandsfora＆ecolld,orcvcnthird sct・ＳｉｎｃｅｔｈｅＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎｍａｒｋｃｔｉｓｓtillintheproces5ofacquirin晋first5cts， thepreferenccforAmericanandotherbrandsappearsjustificd、 Inthecascofbicycles，lI1elowprefercncegivenJapanescimportsmaybe ascribabIe［oaIowercross-elasticityofdema､。，asbuyersofthisproductmay havebrandloyalries･Thecoefficien［ｉｎＩＩｕｉｓｃａｓｅｉｓＯ､６０，ａ＆ａｇａｉｎｓｔＬ２９ｉｎｔｈｅ ＵｎｉＩｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓ･ Thcobservationholds［rueDhowever，ｆｏｒ［l1emosttypicalconsumerdurable呂，

、amelyodomestice1cctricequipme､[owhichincludeswashingmachines，refrigどｒａ－

ｌｏｒｓ，ＣＩＣＣ[ricshavers，loasters，ＣＩＣ･Thi白grouphasacoefficientof１．８５ｆｏｒＬａｌｉｎ Ａｍｅｒｉｃａ０ｔｈｅｆｏｕｒｔhl1ighestinthetable・TheUnitedStatesimportmarketohoweve■

ｈａｓａｎｅｖｅｎｈｉｇｈｅｒｃｏｅｆｆｉｃｉｅｎｔｏｆ３．８６，whichａgainindicatesKhatLatinAmericamay

notbetakingfuIladvantageofJapan,Bimernationalcomperitivcness．

1１ ＩｎＩｈｉｓｓｃｃ【ionweshaUconsiderthevariousfac[orswllichappeartocause

LatinAmcricanimportsofjapancsemanufacturestodepartfromanidealnorm・

AlIIhesefac1orsDincludinganｙｔｈａｔｍａｙｂｅｏｍｉｔｔｅｄ，areofashort-runnature・

Ｓｏｍｃｏｆｔｈｅｍｍａｙｓｅｅｍｉｎｄｃｅｄｎｏｔｔｏｂｅｓｏ，havinglasted，andprcsumabIｙｂｅｉｎｇ

ａｂＤｕｔｔｏｌａｓｔＤｆｏｒａｌｏｎｇｔｉｍｃ･Butthefactthattheymaypersistformanyyears，

ewndccades，ｄｏｅｓｎｏｔａｌｔｅｒ【ｈｅｆａｃｔｔｈａｔｔｈｅｙｄｉｓｔｏｒｔｔｒａｄｅｏａｎｄｔｂｕｓａｒｅ【ｈｅ曰ource

oIdisequilibriawhichmustｐｒｏｐｅｒｌｙｂｅｖｉｅｗｅｄａｓｂｅｉｎｇｏｆａｓｈｏｒt-runnature・

Thc笛efactorsmayberoughlydividedbe[ｗｅｅｎ[ｈｏｓｅｏｎ【ｈｅｓｕｐｐｌｙｓｉｄｅａｎｄ

ｌｈｏｓｅｏｎｌｈｃｄｃｍand罰ide-althoughnohard-and-fastlinｅｃｘｉｓｔｓａｎｄｔｈｅｒｅｉｓｉｎｔｅｒ－

ｐｌａｙｂｃtwccnbolh･Thefirslgroupcomprisesadequaｔｅｓｅｔｔｌｅｍｅｎｔｔｅｒｍｓａｎｄｌａｃｋ

ｏ『ａｆ[ｅｒ－苗ale冨筋crvUc“･ThesecondgroupcompriseｓｔｈｅｂｕｙＵｒｓ９１ｍｐｅｒ【ectlmow-lcdge-I〕roadlydefinどｄ－ａｍｄｐａｙｍｅｎｔｓimbalances． opportunityｉｎ［rａｄｅ ｅｖｅｒｓｉｎｃｅｉｎｔｅｒｎａ－ ｕａｔｅｓｅｔｔｌｅｍｅｎｔｔｅｒｍｓａｒｅａｎＩｍｐｏrtantcauseoflost l､証｡“ ｂｃｌｗｅｅｎｔｈｅｔｗｏｃｃｏｎ〔)ｍｉｅｓ・Theproblemmightbestatedthus：eversinceinteZ

tlonalrradeincapitalgoodsswitchedIromasellers，［ｏａｂｕｙｅｒｓｏｍａｒｋｅｔｉｎｔｈｅ

－２２－

ｍｉｄ－１９５００ｓｏ［herehasbeenintensivecompeti[ionbetweentheindustrialcountrles

asregardsset[ｌｅｍｅｎｔｔｅｒｍｓ，ａｇｇｒａｖａｔｃｄａｔｔｈｃｅｎｄｏｆｔｈｅｄｅｃａｄｅｂythebalance-of-paymentsdifficulties，ofthekey-reservecounlrIes，whichforcedthemtotie-ina

substantialproportionoftheirdevelopmentai｡、japanlaggedbehmdinthiscom-petition，inthesensethatitsintereｓｔｒａｔｅｓｔｒｕｃ[ｕｒｅ，maturityperiods，proportionaI

valueofthedown-paymentrequirementsandpcriodsofgracehavebeenless

favourablethanthoseofotheradvancedcounlries、TlliscausesJapantodisquaIify

itselfoccasionaｌｌｙｆｒｏｍｂｉｄｓｐｕｔｏｕｔｂｙＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａｗｈｉｃｈ，ｉｆprice，qualityand

deliverywercalonedecisive，ｍｉｇｈｔｐｒｅｓｕｍａｂｌｙｂｃｗｏ１１．１，１９６２，Ｉｏｒｉｎｓｔａｎｃｅ，tｈｅ

_２４

ｔｗｏｆｏｌｌｏｗｉｎｇｃａｓｅｓｗｅｒｅｒｅｐｏｒｔｅｄ：

”Reccntly，underArgentinapsrailwayelectrici｢icationprogramme（500coaches，

signalmachines，transformersub-stationsandwiringmaterialstotalIing＄８０

million)，HitachiTokyoEIectricandMi【RubishiElectricareplanningtoｐｕｔｉｎａ

ｊｏｉｎ[bid・JapanExport-ImportBank,howwcr,willnolconsider20perccntdc‐

positandten-yeardeferredpaymem．

ｏＴｈｅｒｅｌｓａｎｃｎｑｕｉｒｙｆｏｒｔｗｏｌＯ,OOO-tonIanker葛，butArgentinawanttStomak巴

80-100ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｄｅｆｅｒｒｅｄｐａｙｍｅｍｉｎ７ＩｏｌＯｙｅａｒｓｏｎｔｈｅｃｏｎｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｏｎｃｏｓＩｓ・

AgainstrhisDWesternEuropeisoｆｆｅｒｉｎｇ８０ｐｃｒｃｅｎｔａｎｄ９ｔｏｌＯｙｅａｒｓｄefcrrcd

paymenI,whileJapan,ｓｔｅｒｍｓａｒｅ７０ｐｃｒｃｃｎｔａｎｄ６ｔｏ７ｙcar白defcrredpay-mem．,，

lnfcrmationonthecomparativesettlememtcrmRofferedbyvariouscou､[ries

usveryscarce,ｂｕ【whatli[tleisavailableappearstoindicatethatjapanismakmg

rapidprogress・Thus，inl962interestrate烏CharlgedbyJapanforthistypcofex-

２５

ｐｏｒｔｗｅｒｅｉｎｔｈｅｖｉｃｉｎｉｔｙｏｆ７ｐｅｒｃentandmaturitieswereabou【Sto7vears・

Ｂｙｌｌ６７，however，ｉｔｓｉｎ【ｅｒｅｓｔｒａｔｅｓｈａｄｇｏｎｃｄｏｗｎｔｏ４．５ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｆｏｒｓｏｍｃｌｏａｎｓ

_２６Z7

1mkedtomanufacturingindusｔｒｉｅｓ，ｏｒｅｖｅｎｔｏ４･Ｏｐｅｒｃｃｎｔ，ａｎｄmaturities

hadgoneuptol5years・ThistrendisdiscernIblefromthecomposi[ionofjapanese

TheOrientaユEconoIT1ist，Tokyo，Ｎａｙ1962,ｐ、２７４． ２４ ２５ ２６ Ｉｂｉｄ． Simposioエ]nternaciona1scbreDesarrolloIndustrial，４yudarinanciera ｏｒｉｃｊａｌｂｉ１ａｔｅｒａｌａｌａｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｍaｎｕｒａｃｔｕｒｅｒａｄｅｌｏｓｐａｉｓｅｇｅｎ

記三三万両こ~(面7557哀~17175~(UnitedNationsDocument)，1967,Table？．

ｚ７ＵｎｉｔｅｄＩｉａｔｉｏｎｓ， （E/4274/Add、１)， がｏＴｔＣｒｅｄｉｔｓａｎｄＤｅｖｅ」Ｃ －２３－

LaL1nAmerlcalsplacelnJapaneseexporLLrade officiaIbilaterallendingcommitmentsbymamrityandinterestrate･Thusobetween l962andl964,JapancsccommitmentswithmaturitiesbetweenSandlOyearswere

almoBthalved-from＄l49million[ｏ＄７７million-whilethosewithmaturitIesbe-tweenlOand20yearsincrehsedmore[haneigh[-fold-fr０ｍ＄l3million[ｏ＄l07

mjllion、Ｃｏｍｍｉｔｍｅｎｔｓａｋａｒａ[ｅｏｆｉｎｔｅｒｅｓｔｏｆ６ｔｏ７ｐｅｒｃｅｍｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｄｉｎｔｈｅｓａｍｅ ｐｅｒｉｏｄｂｙｏｎｅｓｉｘｔｈｏｎly-from＄５４millionto＄６２million-whereasthoseatarate ofinterestofSto6percen[increasedalmostthree-fold-from＄６５millionto＄175 麹 million-andthosebelow5perccntincreasedfromnoughtto＄4.3million、 Despi[ethisrapidprogress,however,Japancannotyetcompetewithotherin-dustrialcountries，whicharealsoimprovingtheirtermsDalthoughataslowerrate･ ItcannotforinstancematchsoｍｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳ[atesloansreimbursableinlocalcurren-ciesDnorthegraceｐｅｒｉｏｄｓｏｆｓｏｍｅｏｆ［heUniKedKingdomosandCanadaosIoans･ Somecountriesarepreparedtooffermaturitiesupto30years（France,Ｗｅｓｔ Germany,theNetI】erlands),ｏｒｅｖｅｎ４０ｙｅａｒｓ(UnitedStates,UnitedKingdom)．Many countricsofferinteres【rateswellbelow4percent･SimcemanybuyersinLatin AmericaOlackingreadycash，attachgreaterimportancetoｓｅｔ[lementtermsthanto priceorqualitｙｏｓｏｍｅｔｒａｄｅｄｉｓ[ortionresults，depressingthequantumofLaLin AmericanimportsofJapanesemachineryandtransportequipment． After-salesservicesareveryimportantinexportsofindustrialplamsOheavy machineryandsomeconsumerdurables6hereagainJapan,sinabilitytocompete withWesternfirmsisahaUKlicap・japanosbackwardnessinthisrespectstemsfrom theⅢａｔｕｒｅｏｆｉＩｓｄｉｓｔｒｉＵｍｏｎｓｙｓｔｅｍ･WhereastheEuropeanandAmericancompa- niesoperatingabroadusuallyhaveoneagentineachcountry,[heJapanesecompa-meshavetcndcduntilrecentlytorelysolelyontradingcompanlesthatmarkettheir productsaRmdependentintermediaries・Ｎｏｗ，thethoroughkmowledgeofforeign marke[ｓｌｈａｔｔｈｅｓｅｉｎ[ｅｒｍｅｄｉａｒｉｅｓｈａｖｅ，ａｎｄｔｈｅｉｒｗｉｌｌｉｎｇｎｅｓｓｔｏａｃｔａｓｆｉnancerso

givethemapositiveroleinJapanlSexporttrade,buttheyarenotasconduciveto

lhedurablepenetrationofforBignmarketsasthespecializeddistributorwhocanbe ２８０ECD，ＤＡＣ，Deve1。pmentAssistanceErfortsandPoliCies，196う，Review， Table□８ａｎｄ９． －２４－

２９ rclieduponfOrafter-salesServices．

Onthedemandside,the2uyers,imperfectknowIedgeencompassesvarious

phenomcna･ＩｎｔｈｅｆｉｒｓｔｐｌａｃｅＤｔｈｅｌａｇｗithwhichprospectivecustomersinLatin

AmericalearnaboutJapan，smcreasedcompetitivenessandcaｐａｃｉｔｙｍｕｓｔｂｅｐｒｅ－

ｓｕｍｅｄｔｏｂｅｇｒｅａlerthanin，ｓａｙ，theUnitedStatesDwhere，ａｓｗａｓｎｏted，consumers

andinvestorsarebetterａｎｄｍｏｒｅｐｒｏｍｐｔｌｙｉｎｆｏｒｍｅｄｏｆｓｕｃｈｉmprovemGnts･jlmi-larly,ＩｈｃＬ:hangeofqualityforanygivengoodhasbeenrapidinJapan，ｓｏtha[thc

lreputatiomo『badqualitythatattachestoJapaneseproductsmusttendtolingｅｒｍｏｒｅ ｉｎＬａｔｉｎＡｍｅｒｉｃａｔｈａｎｉｎｍｏｒｅｕｐ－ｔｏ－ｄａｔｅｍａｒｋｅｔｓ， ＲｃｌａｌｃｄｔｏｔｈｉｓｐｏｉｎｔｉｓｔｈｅｓｎｏｂａｐｐｅａｌｏｆＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎａｎｄＷｅｓｔｅｒｍＥｕｒｏpean brands・ThcJapaneseareawareofthisphenomenonintheimportmarketsofAsia， ３０ cxempIifiedbythefollowingcase． ,ＯＴａｋｅＨｏｎｇＫｏｎｇ，forinstance、Inpurchasingelevators，ＨongKongenterpris-ersunLilrece､[lydependedsolelyonOtisproducts(UnitedStates）andJapanese eIevatorswcrebeateninmanyinternationaltendersheldｉｎＨｏｎｇＫｏｎｇｉｎｔｈｅ ｐａｓｔ、AcertainJapaneseelevatormanufacturerhaditselfrepresentedbyare-puIableBritishfiｒｍｉｎａｒｅｃｅｎ［ｂｉｄｄｉｎｇｆｏｒｅｌｅｖａｔｏｒｓｈｅｌｄｂｙｔｈｅＨongKong GovernmentforQueenElizabethHospitaLTheJapanesecompanywonthecon- lrilどt・Japaneseelevatorsinstalledunderthccontractprovedexcellentinper-l⑪『･】nance，ａｎｄｌｅｄｔｏｔｈｅｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｏｆｅｌｅｖａｔｏｒｅxporｔｓｌａｔｅｒ..， 、膳lanceisafactortha[，inthecaseofJapan,canbeclassifiedunderimperfect knowlcdgc・ManydistancesareofcourseinvolvedinJapancse-LatinAmerican trade，ごｏｔｈａｔｓｏｍｅｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｓｔｈａｔａｒｅｃｏｍｐｅｔｉｔｉｖｅｏｎｔｈｅＷｅｓｔＣｏａｓｔｍａｙｍｏｔｂｃｓｏ ｏｎｌｈｅＥａｓｔＣｏａｓＬＴｗｏｏｆｔｈｅｍａｒｋｃts-ArgentinaandUruguay-aretheantipodes o｢japan,whcreasMexicoisrelativelynear・Inthecontextofthispaper,distance i月ｏＩｉｎ[ｅｒｅｓｔｏｎｌｙｔｏｔｈｅｅｘｔｅｎｔｔｈａｔｉｔｒｅlate弓【osalesthatareadverselyaffectedｂｙ (IiRtanceintheabsenceofadversefreigI1tcouusidcrations・Hunsbergernotesthat .､thegre4lterthedistancemanyJapanescimportsmustbecarriedｉｓｎｏｔａｓｓｅｒｉｏｕｓ ａｄｉろadvantageasmanypeoplesuppose･Scatransportationisrelativelycheap，and manyJapanesegoodscanbeprofitablysoldabroaddespi[ｅｍｅｃｏｓｔｓｏｆｔｗｏｌｏｎｇｓｅａ TｈｅＯｒｉｅｎｔａｌＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｓｔ 湧加 Tokyo，Septelnberl964，ｐ、599-600. Iｂｉｄ． －２５－

LatlnA□erlcalsplaceユnJapaneseexporLtrade

voyages，ｏｎｅｆｏｒｔｈｅｒａｗｍａｔｅｒｉａｌｓ，theotherfor【hefinisbedproducts,．.＄ｌ

ＢｕｔＩｈｅ

ｍｅｒｅｆａｃ【thatmanypeopIesupposetha【ｔｈｅｒｅｉＳａｓｅｒｉｏｕｓｄｉｓａｄｖａｎｔａｇｃｉ時ｉｌｓｅｌ「a

seriousdisadvantagc･Distancethuscreatesapsychologiｃａｌｌ〕ａｒｒｉｅｒｔｏｔｒａｄｃｉｎｔｈｃ

ｐ９３２

ｍｉｎｄｓｏfprospectivebuyers-whatBeckcｒｍａｎｃａｌｌｓ､OpsychicdIstancc，wI1icI1

dismrtstradc･

Dislallceisalsoatradedeterrcntbecauscof【hcdelaysindeliverytluatmaybc

lnvolvcd・Ｉｎｔｌｕｉｓｃａｓｅ【ｈｃｒｅａｐｐｅａｒｓ【(ＤｂｅａｃｌｃａｒｃｒｃａｓｅｏｆｉｍｐｅｒにcrknowIedge・

ThefulfiImentofatypicalordertoaLatinAmcricancountrybyjapan,whichused

lorequirebctweenslxａｎｄｎｉｎｅｗｅｃｋｓ，「aｋｃｓｎｏｗｏｎｌｙａｆｅｗｄａｙｓａｃｃｏｒｄｉｎｇ（oIhe

PanamericanUnion，ｔＩ１ａｎｋｓｔｏｔｈｅｅｓ[ablishmentinthePanamaCanalFrccＺｏｎｅｏｆａ ｃｅｎｔｒｅｉｏｒ苗alesanddis[ributiontoLa[ｉｎAmerica･Japanusesacombinationof frcights,withcheaperseafreightsforthelongluaulfromJapanand-once【he

ordeTsarereceivcd-dearerairfreighlsfor【Iueshorterdistancewithinll1eregion.

ThesystcmhastheaddedadvantagcｔｈａｔｉｔａⅡowscustomers［ｏｃｕ［ｄｏｗｎｔｈｅｉｒｉｎ－ ３３ ventorycosts,furtherincreasingthecompetitivcpowerofJapaneseproduct$． FinallyDaverysignificantclemcntmustbeconsidered：thctradeandpayments

position・BilateraltradcbaIanceis［hemostsignificantvariableobecauseMagiven

LatinAmericancountryhasTepeatcdandsubstantialsurｐｌｕｓｅｓｉｎｉ[s1radewi[ｈ japan,oncoughttoexpcctagreaterKradeintensi[ｙ[haniftheoppositewerethc

case．Ｏ【herinterrelatcdvariabIeswhichａｒｅａｌｓｏｗｏｒｔｈｌｏｏｋｉｎｇｉｎｔｏａｒｅｔｈｅｇeneral

paymentsposi【ion,theimportanccofJapanasacustomer,andthegrowtllmIcof JapanspurchascsfromitsLatinAmericantradingpartner･ ＴａｋｉｎｇｕｐｆｉｒｓｔｔｈｅｒｅｇｉｏｎａｓａｗｈｏｌｅDduringthefouryearsunderconsideration

LatinAmcricahadanincreasinglyfavourabletradebalancewithjapan,ａｓｍｅｒａｔｉｏ

ＭＳ・Hunsberger，。ｐ・Ｃｉｔ．，ｐ･’５６． M．Bcckerman，i1DistanceandthePatterno2エnt寝-mropeanTradeii，Eeview orEconomicsandStatistics，vol、２８，１９５６，ｐ，３８，quotedbynLinnemann ３１ ３２ ＮｏｒｔｈＨｏｌ１ａｎｄ７ ｎｅｄｅｃｏｎｎｍｉｃ `areas，Ibid.，ｐ､３２． ｎｍ ＬＡ且 F1月、Ｌ９ｂｂ．ＤｐＺＢ DＥＩｌｅＣＯｎＣｅＤｒＯⅡ・0Ｗ］ｎＦ ｈｏｒｉｚｏｎＩｏａｐｐｌｉｅｄｂｙ ３３Ｕｎｉ６ｎＰａｎａmericana， ｅｘｐｏｒｔａｃｉｏｎｅｓｄｅｐｒ Linnelnanntopreferential ｔｒａｄｉｎｇａｒｅａｓ， ｏｎ－１９ｂＬｌｒ１ -２６－

ofimportsfromJapantoexpDrtstoJapamdeclinedfrom88percentiｎｌ９６２ｔｏ６６

ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉｎｌ９６５、ＴｈＩｓｗａｓ［heresultofasubstantialincreaseduringthisperiodin

JapanesepurchasesofLatinAmericanproducts,whichgrewfrom＄399miUionin

l962tos586millioninl965,ａｔａｎａｖｅｒａｇｅｒａｔｅｏｆｌ４ｐｅｒｃｅｍｐｅｒｙear、Japanese

participationintheLationAmericanexporttradeDhowever,wasnotverysubstantiaL

beingonly４．２ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏ「ｔｈｅｔｏｔａＩｉｎｌ９６５；ｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｐａｙｍｅｎｔｓｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｉｎｔｌｕｅregion

asawholcmilitatedagainstgreaterfrcedomoIchoice，ａｓｓｏｆａｒｉｎｔＩ１ｅｌ９ｂＯ,sthere weredeficitsthroughl9b3,ａｎdIhesurpIusrecordedinl964/６５wasachievedatIhe expcnseofcurtailingimports． ThefactthatthebilateraltradebaｌａｎｃｅｗａｓｓｏｃｌｅａｒｌｙｉｎｆａｖｏｕｒｏｆＬａｔin

AmericaoughttohaveledtowardsatleastastationarypreferenceforJapanese

goods，expeciallyasJapanwasatlhesametimefavouringLatinAmericamoreand

more･Instead，LatinAmericaoscoefficientforimportsofmacI1ineryandtramsport

equipmentfromJapandeclinedsteadily,ａｓｓｈｏｗｎａｔ[ｈｅbeginning,fromLO5inl962 ･ｔｏ０．６５ｉｎ1965．Thisindicatesthatotherconsiderationspsuchaslackofcreditac-comodationDimperfec［knowledge，ｅｔｃ.，bolsteredbytheunfavourablepayments situation，tendedtohavegreatcrinfluencethanthecompetitivepriceposi[ionof Japanesegoods，bolsteredbyasoundbilateraltradｅｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎａｓｗｅｌｌａｓｂｙａｇｏｏｄ ｇｒｏｗｔhrateinJapan,sordersfromLatinAmerica、 BIlateralpositionsmustproperlyｂｅｅｘａｍｉｎｅｄｃｏｕｎ[ｒｙｂｙｃｏｕｍｒｙ０ｈｏｗｅｖｅｒ・ Takingthesevenmaincountries-Argentina，Brazil，Chile，ＣｏｌｏｍｂｉａＤＭｅｘｉｃｏ，Ｐｅｒｕ ａｎｄＶｃｎｅｚｕｅｌａ－ｗｈｉｃｈｉｎａｎｙｏｎｅｙｅａｒａｃｃｏｕｍＩｏｒ６０ｔｏ６５ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｆｔotalLatin Americanimportsfromjapan,i［isfoundthatArgentinainl962andBrazIlinl962／ O3hadveryunfavourabletradebalanceswi[ｈJapan・Duringtheseyears,theirin-tensi[ycoefficien[sweresubstantiallyaboveunity，rangingbetweenl･ｌ３ａｎｄＬ４４･ Ｔｈｅｔｗｏｃｏｕｎｒｒｉｅｓｍａｙｂｅｓａｉｄｔｏｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｏｎａｗｓｐｅｎｄｉｎｇｓｐｒｅｅ,｡、Ｔｈｅｎｃａｍｅｔｈｅ ｔｉｍｅｆｏｒｒｅｃｋｏｎｉｎｇＤａｓｔｈｅｉｒｔｏｔａｌｂａｌａｎｃｅ－ｏｌ－ｐａｙｍｅｎｔｓｓｉｔｕａｔｉｏｎｓｗｏｒｓｅｎｅｄ－ｉｎｌ９６２ ｄｕｅｐａymentsdeficitinArgentinaandBrazilreacI1ed＄276millionand＄294miIlion

respectively､３６Asaresult，bothcoun[riescurtailedtheirimportsingeneral，ａｎｄ

EconomicCommjssionforLatinAmerica，EstudioEcon6mﾕｃｏｄｅＡｍさrica

Latina，ユ9６５１（UnitedNations，NewYork，1966)，ｐ、８ﾕ．

－２７－

LatlnAmerlcabplacOユnJapaneseexportLrade especiaUytheirimportsfromJapan，andthebilateraltradebalancewith

thiscoumrywasrestoredintheirfavour；thelrtradeintensitycoefficient，

however，sankwellbelowunity，ｇｏｉｎｇｄｏｗｎｉｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆＡｒｇｅｎｔｍａｔ0

0.88ｉｎ1963,0.25ｉｎｌ９６４ａｎｄＯ､28,1965．（Duringthislastyearthe

tradebalancewithjapanwasonceagainunfavourable，ｂｕｔｔｈａｔｗａｓｄｕｅｔｏ

ａｎｍｃｒｅａｓｅｉｎｉｍｐortsofbasicmanufactures（Section6oftheSITC/Rev.)・

whichareofdecliningimportancemJapan'sexporttrade.）SimiIarly，ｉｎ

ｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆＢｒａｚｉｌｔｈｅｃoefficientdeclinedlo０．６３ａｎｄ０．５５ｉｎｌ９６４ａｎｄ ｌ９６５． P

Ｔｈｅｓｉ[uationmighthavebeendifferentifJapaIuhadbeenanimportantand

dynamiccustomerofthetwocountries，ｂｕｔJapan'ｓpar【icipationinthcexport

tradeofArgentinaandBrazilwasonly2､２ｐｅｒcentandL9percentofthe

total，respectively・ThegrowthrateofJapan,sordersfromhothcounlrieswaS

nottoolowDaveraging9percenｔａｎｄ８ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｒｅｓｐｅｃ[ｉｖｅｌｙｉｎｌ９６２－６５，ｂｕｔ

ｉｔｗａｓｍｕｃｈｌｏｗｅｒｔｈａｎｉｎｏｔｈerLatinAmericancountries，sincetheregional

rate，ａｓｎｏｔｅｄ，averagedl4percent･

ColombiaandVenezuelaaretwocoun[rIeswhosetradebalancewithJapan

isinvariablyveryadverse，ｗｉｔｈratioｓｏｆ４８１ａｎｄ２:lrespectively・crow[ｈ

ａｎｄparticipation，takentogether，arenegligible･AsaresulttheircoeffIci-

en[ｓａｒｅｌｏｗ－ｒａｎｇｉｎｇｂｅｔｗｅｅｎ０．３６andq69duringtheperiodunderconsi-deration．

MexicoandChilesbowaclearerpictureofby-passedopportunity．The

export/ｉｍｐｏｒｔｒａｔｉｏｉｓｉｎｆａｖｏｕｒｏｆｔｈｅｔｗｏＬａ【inAmericancountriesby

about4:lｉｎｂｏｔｈｃａｓｅｓ（10:ｌｉｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆＣｈｉｌｅｉｎｌｌ“)．Ｔｈｃｇｒｏｗ[h

rateofJapan，simportsfromChileaveraged29percentperyearduring

thefOuryears，ａｓJapan,spurchasesjumpedfrom＄５２million［ｏ＄１１２ｍｉＩ－

１ｉｏｎｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｌ９６２ａｎｄｌ９６５；ｔｈｅｒａｔｅｗａｓｓｌｏｗｉｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｆＭｅｘｉｃｏ－４ ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｐｅｒｙｅａｒ，ｆｒｏｍ＄l09millionto＄ｌ２３ｍｉｌｌｉｏｎ－ｂｕｔｔｈｉｓｗａｓｍｓｕｄｅ ｕｐｆoｒｂｙｏｔｈesizeoftheparticipation，whichwassubstamialinbothcases：

１０．８percentofChileanexpor[ｓａｎｄ７.ｌｐｅｒｃｅｎ［ofMexicanexportswent

-２８－

３５ toJapaninl965・ BothcountriesarethusmagoodpositiontobuymorefromJapan,yettheirco-efficientsoftradeintensityareveryloworangmgfrom０．３１ｔｏｑ４５ｉｎｂｏｔｈｃｏｕｎｔ－ ｒｉｅｓｄｕｒｉｎｇｔｈｅperiodunderconsideratIon-excepｔｆｏｒＣｈｉｌｅｉｎｌ９６５，whentheco-efficientroseto上hｅｍｏｒｅｎｏｒｍａｌｆｉｇｕｒｅｏｆｌ､ｌ７ｏｗｉｎｇｔｏａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｐｕｒｃhase fromjapaneseshipyards． ＰＣｒｕｉｓｐｅｒｈａｐｓｔｈｅｍｏｓｔｉｌｌｕｍｉnatingcase･Ｉｔｈａｓａｌｌｔｈｒｅｅｃｏｎｄｌｔｉｏｎｓｆｏｒ

ｆｒeedomofchoice：favourablebila[eraIbaIanceswi[ｈJapan(about2:l),goodgrowth

ratesinitsexportstoJapan(２４percentperyearduringl962/65)andaboveaver-ageparticipationbyJapaninitsexporttrade(gpercentofitsexports)．Ａｓｍｉｇｈｔ

ｂｅｅｘｐｅｃ【ed，itstradeintensitycoefficientsａｒｅｓｔｅａｄｉｌｙａｔｕｍｔｙｏｒｖｅｒｙｎｅａｒ

ｉｔ･

ＩｔｉｓｔｈｕｓｉｎｓｈａｒｐｃｏｎｔｒａｓｔｗｉｔｈｎｅＩghbouringChileoandthedifferencｅｍａｙｂｅ

ｉｎｐａｒ［ｄｕｅｔｏｔｈｅｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｎｔｐａｙｍｅｎｔｓｐｏｓitionsofbothcountries：Ｃｈｉｌｅｈａｄｆｂｕｒｄｅ－

ｆｉｃｉｔｓｉｎａｒｏｗｄｕｒingl960/63,andrecordedsurplusesInl9“/65,whichmaywell

haveacorrelationwiththeulormalizationofitscoeffIcientowhichsho上ｕｐｔｏｌ･ｌ７ｉｎ

ｌ９６５，asnoted、Peru，ｏｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｈａｎｄ１ｈａｄｃｏｎｔｉｎualsurplusesduringl960／

６５． エｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｏｒＭｅｘｉｃｏ，ａｎａｄｄｉｔｉｏｎａ１ｒｅｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｍｉｇｎｔｂｅｍａｄｅｉｎｖｉｅｗ ｏｆｉｔｓｐｒｏｘｉｍｉｔｙｔｏｔｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＳｔａｔｅｓａｎｄｔｈｅｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｏｒＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎ ｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔ･Ｄｉｓｔａｎｃｅ７ｈｏｗｅｖｅｒ，Ｂｈｏｕ１ｄｎｏｔｉｎｃ１ｕｄｅＤ１ｐＢｙｃｈｉｃｄｉｓｔａｎｃｅＩＩｐ ｗｈｉｃｈｗａｓｄｅｒｉｎｅｄｔｏｂepartorimperrectknowledge･ＡｓｔｏｐｈｙＢｉｃａユ ｄｉｓｔａｎｃｅ，ｔｈｅｒｅａｒｅｉｎｄｉｃａｔｉｏｎｓｔｈａｔｉｔｍａｙｎｏｔｂｅａｓｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔａｓｉｔ ａｐｐｅａｒｓｔｏｂｅＤｓｉｎｃｅＢｌｅｘｉｃｏＩｓｔｒａｄｅｉｎｔｅｎｓｉｔｙｃｏｅｒｒｉｃｉｅｎｔｆｏｒｇｏｏｄｓ ｉｌｎｐｏｒｔｅｄＥｒｏｍＪａｐａｎｗｉｔｈエｏｗｅｒｄｅｇｒｅｅｓｏｒ江ｏｃｅｓｓｉｎｇｉｓｈｉｇｈｅｒｔｈａｎｆｏｒ ｍａchine工ｙａｎｄｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔｅｑｕｉｐｍｅｎｔ，ｗｈｉｃｈｉｓｃｈｅａｐｅｒｔｏｔｴ且ｎｓｐｏｒｔｒｅﾕａ－ ｔｉｖｅｔｏｉｔｓｗｏｒｔｈｏ ＡｍｅｒｉｃａｎｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔＢａｒｅａｌｓｏｎｏｔｔａｌｃｅｎｉｎｔｏａｃｃｏｕｎｔｉｎｔｈﾕＢａｎａ１ｙｓｉｓ ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ９ｒｒｏｍａｃｏｎｃｅｐｔｕａ１ｓｔａｎｄｐｏｉｎｔ，ａｌｌｒｉｒｍｓｍｕｓｔｂｅｃｏｎｓｉｄｅｒｅｄ ａｕｔｏｎｏｍｏｕｓａｓｗｅｌｌａｓｒａｔｉｏｎａｌ９ａｎｄｍｕｓｔｂｅｈｅｌｄｔｃｂｅｉｎｐｏＢｓｅｓｓｉｏｎｏｒ ｐｅｒｒｅｃｔｋｎｏｗｌｅｄｇｅｏｒｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄｍａｒｋｅｔ･ ＲｅｇａｒｄｉｎｇＪａｐａｎｅｓｅｐａｒｔｉｃｉｐａｔｉｏｎ１ｎＨｅｘｉｃａｎｅｘｐｏｒｔｓ，ｉｔｉｓｗｏｒｔｈｎｏｔｉｒ昭『 tｈａｔｔｈｅ７．１percentrigureprobablylmderstatｅｓｔｈｅａｃｔｕａｌｐａｒｔｉｃｉ－ ｐａｔｉｏｎ･ＴｈｉｓｐｅｒｃｅｎｔａｇｅｗａｓｄｅｒｉｖｅｄｆｒｏｍＭｅｘｉｃａｎｅｘｐｏｒｔｆｉｇｕｒｅｓＤａｓ ｒｅｐｏｒｔｅｄｔｏｔｎｅｍＦａｎｄｔｈｅＶｏｒｌｄＢａｎｋ，ａｎｄｅｘｐｏｒｔｓｔｏＪａｐａｎｔｈｒｏｕｇｈ Ａｍｅｒｉｃａｎｐｏｒｔｓａｒｅｐｒｏｂａｂ１ｙｎｏｔｍｃｌｕｄｅｄ． ３５ －２９－