䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䊨䊷䊮㗴䈱 ᱜ䈚䈇⠨䈋ᣇ
₡දᄢቇ⚻ᷣቇㇱ
ୖᯅ ㅘ
1
ᣣᧄ⚻ᷣ䈻䈱ᓇ㗀
• ᩣ㸢ㅒ⾗↥ലᨐ
㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐䈱⥄Ꮖ⾗ᧄᲛ៊㸢⾉䈚ᷦ䉍 䊶㜞䊄䊦㸢ャᷫㅌ
䊶㓹↪
䊶⒢
2
ᣣᧄ䈻䈱㗴ឭ
• ᣣᧄ䈱䊙䉪䊨⚻ᷣ䈱ㆇ༡䉕䈬䈉䈚䈩䈇䈒䈱䈎
• ᣣᧄ䈱ቛ㊄Ⲣ䈲䈬䈉䈅䉎䈼䈐䈎
3
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䊨䊷䊮䈫䈲
• 䊒䊤䉟䊛䋨ఝ⦟䈭䋩䈱ਅ䈮䈅䉎䇮ା↪ജ䈱ૐ䈇
㘈ቴ䉕ኻ⽎䈫䈚䈢ቛ䊨䊷䊮
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䊨䊷䊮䈱ቯ⟵
• ᑧṛጁᱧ䇮⎕↥ጁᱧ䇮 FICO ᜰᢙ ( 䊐䉜䉟䉮ᜰ ᢙ䋩䈮䉋䉎ା↪ജ䇮ᚲᓧ䈫ᷣ㗵䈱Ყ₸䈮䈧 䈇䈩䉧䉟䊄䊤䉟䊮
• ᦨ⚳⊛䈮䈲㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐䈱್ᢿ
5
㪇㩼 㪈㪇㩼 㪉㪇㩼 㪊㪇㩼 㪋㪇㩼 㪌㪇㩼 㪍㪇㩼 㪎㪇㩼 㪏㪇㩼 㪐㪇㩼 㪈㪇㪇㩼
㪉㪇㪇㪈 㪉㪇㪇㪉 㪉㪇㪇㪊 㪉㪇㪇㪋 㪉㪇㪇㪌 㪉㪇㪇㪍 㪉㪇㪇㪎
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛 㪟㪜㪣 㪘䌬䌴䋭㪘 䉳䊞䊮䊗 䉮䊮䊐䉤䊷䊚䊮䉫 㪝㪟㪘㪆㪭㪘
䇼䉝䊜䊥䉦䈱ቛ䊨䊷䊮䈱ಽ㘃䇽
ା↪ജ㜞䈇
ା↪ജૐ䈇
⊛䊨䊷䊮 ᳃㑆䊨䊷䊮
䉮䊮䊐䉤䊷䊚䊮䉫䊨䊷䊮 䉳䊞䊮䊗䊨䊷䊮
Alt-A䊨䊷䊮
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䊨䊷䊮 FHA䊶VA䊨䊷䊮
䊒䊤䉟䊛
䇼䊨䊷䊮ຠ䈱䉲䉢䉝䈱ផ⒖䇽
(䊂䊷䉺䋺Inside
␠䋩
ࠨࡉࡊࠗࡓࡠࡦߣߪޔା↪ജߩૐ⠪ߦኻߔࠆ᳃㑆ߩቛࡠࡦޕ
㨪ᐕߦᕆჇߒޔࡈࡠߢߪ㧞ഀ⒟ᐲߩⷙᮨ㧔ᐕ㧕߹ߢⴕߞߚ߇ޔ⿷ਅߪ❗
ᷫޕ
䋼䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䊨䊷䊮䈫䈲䋾
⊛䊨䊷䊮 ᳃㑆䊨䊷䊮
6
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴ ዊᨋᱜብ᳁ ᚑ䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䊨䊷䊮䈱㓉⋓
• ૐ㊄䇮䉦䊥䊐䉤䊦䊆䉝╬䈪ቛ䊋䊑䊦
• ᣂຠ⊓႐䋨 IO 䊨䊷䊮䋽రᧄᡰᛄ䈇䉕᧪
䈮䉿䉬࿁䈜䊨䊷䊮╬䋩䇮䉨䊞䊮䊕䊷䊮⊛䈮ᒰೋ
㊄䉕ᒁ䈐ਅ䈕䇮ክᩏၮḰ↞䈒
• ⾼⠪䈱ᆫ䋨୫䉍឵䈋೨ឭ䇮⏕ା‽䉅 )
7
ੱ⒳ᜬኅ₸䈱ផ⒖䋨ോ⋭䋩
1994 ᐕ 2005 ᐕ
⊕ੱ 70.0% 75.8%
㤥ੱ 42.3% 48.2%
䊍䉴䊌䊆䉾䉪 41.2% 49.5%
ㅒ࿁ォ䈚䈢ᱤゞ
• ࿕ቯ㊄ᦼ㑆䈏⚳䉒䉍䇮ᄌേ㊄䈮⒖ⴕ䈜 䉎㓙䇮୫䉏ᤨ䉋䉍㜞䈒䈭䈦䈢㊄䈏⋥᠄䇮
ᷣ㗵ᕆჇ䋨䊕䉟䊜䊮䊃䊶䉲䊢䉾䉪䋩
• ቛଔᩰᱛ䈭䈇䈚ਅ⪭䈮䉋䉍Ⲣ⾗ᘒ ᐲ෩ᩰൻ䇮ᤃ䈭୫䉍឵䈋䈪䈐䈝
• ቛ䉕ᄁ䈦䈩䉅ቢᷣ䈪䈐䈝
• ᑧṛ₸ᕆჇ
9
䋼㗴⊒↢䈱┵✜䋾
ࠕࡔࠞߢߪޔࡊࠗࡓߩ㘈ቴߩ㧣ഀߪోᦼ㑆࿕ቯࠍ↪ޕ
ࠨࡉࡊࠗࡓߢߪㅒߦᄌേ㊄㧔․ߦ㧞ᐕ࿕ቯ㧕ߩ↪߇ᄙߊޔోᦼ㑆࿕ቯߪ㧝ഀ
ᧂḩޕ
䇼࿕ቯ䈫ᄌേ䈱䉲䉢䉝䇽 䇼䉝䊜䊥䉦䈱㊄䈱ផ⒖䇽
(䊂䊷䉺䋺FRB䋩 (䊂䊷䉺䋺䊐䊧䊂䉞䊙䉾䉪䋩
2004䌾5ᐕ䈮ᕆჇ䈚䈢䋲ᐕ࿕ቯ䇮䋳ᐕ࿕ቯ䈱㊄⋥䈚
ᤨᦼ䈮⍴ᦼ㊄䈱䈏⋥᠄
(2006ᐕ䋩
㪏㪅㪎㩼
㪎㪇㪅㪊㩼 㪉㪐㪅㪐㩼
㪈㪏㪅㪊㩼 㪈㪈㪅㪋㩼
㪍㪅㪍㩼 㪌㪋㪅㪏㩼
㪇㩼 㪉㪇㩼 㪋㪇㩼 㪍㪇㩼 㪏㪇㩼 㪈㪇㪇㩼
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛 䊒䊤䉟䊛
ోᦼ㑆࿕ቯ 䈠䈱ઁ 䋵ᐕ࿕ቯ 䋳ᐕ࿕ቯ 䋲ᐕ࿕ቯ
㪇㩼 㪈㩼 㪉㩼 㪊㩼 㪋㩼 㪌㩼 㪍㩼 㪎㩼
㪉㪇㪇㪈 㪉㪇㪇㪉 㪉㪇㪇㪊 㪉㪇㪇㪋 㪉㪇㪇㪌 㪉㪇㪇㪍 㪉㪇㪇㪎
10
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴ ዊᨋᱜብ᳁ ᚑ㪄㪉㪇㩼 㪄㪈㪌㩼 㪄㪈㪇㩼 㪄㪌㩼 㪇㩼 㪌㩼 㪈㪇㩼 㪈㪌㩼 㪉㪇㩼 㪉㪌㩼
㪈㪐㪏㪏 㪈㪐㪐㪇 㪈㪐㪐㪉 㪈㪐㪐㪋 㪈㪐㪐㪍 㪈㪐㪐㪏 㪉㪇㪇㪇 㪉㪇㪇㪉 㪉㪇㪇㪋 㪉㪇㪇㪍 㪉㪇㪇㪏 㪇㩼 㪌㩼 㪈㪇㩼 㪈㪌㩼 㪉㪇㩼
㪉㪇㪇㪋 㪉㪇㪇㪌 㪉㪇㪇㪍 㪉㪇㪇㪎 㪨㪋
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛 䋨ᄌേ䋩
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛 䋨࿕ቯ䋩 䊒䊤䉟䊛䋨ᄌേ䋩
䊒䊤䉟䊛䋨࿕ቯ䋩
㪉㪇㪅㪉
㪈㪊㪅㪐㪐
㪌㪅㪌㪈 㪉㪅㪌㪍
(䊂䊷䉺䋺MBA䋩
䋼㗴䈱㗼ൻ䋾
㧞ᐕ࿕ቯߩ࿕ቯᦼ㑆⚳ੌᓟߦ⍴ᦼ㊄ߢࡍࠗࡔࡦ࠻࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ㧔ᷣ㗵ᕆჇ㧕߇⊒↢ޕ
ቛଔᩰߩ㊰ൻߢ୫឵߽᧪ߕޔᑧṛ₸߇ߒޔࠨࡉࡊࠗࡓࡠࡦࠍᜂߦ⚵ᚑߐࠇߚ᳃㑆 MBSߩଔᩰ߽ᄢ߈ߊਅ⪭ߒޔࠨࡉࡊࠗࡓ㗴ߪቛࡠࡦᏒ႐ߩ㗴߆ࠄ㊄Ⲣࠪࠬ࠹ࡓߩ㗴ߦ
ᄢޕ
䇼䉝䊜䊥䉦䈱ቛଔᩰ䈱ኻ೨ᐕᲧ₸䇽 䇼㊄䉺䉟䊒䊒䊤䉟䊛䈫䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䈱ᑧṛ₸䇽
(䊂䊷䉺䋺S&P䋩
11
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴ ዊᨋᱜብ᳁ ᚑ䉦䊥䊐䉤䊦䊆䉝ቛଔᩰᄌേ₸
䋨೨ᐕᲧ䇮 OFHEO)
䊐䊨䊥䉻ቛଔᩰᄌേ₸ ( ೨ᐕᲧ䇮 OFHEO)
13
䋼䉝䊜䊥䉦䈱ቛᏒ႐䈻䈱ᓇ㗀䋾
㶎ቄ▵⺞ᢛ୯
䂓ᣂ▽ቛᐶᢙ䈱ផ⒖ 䂓ᣂ⸳ቛ⌕Ꮏᚭᢙ䈫ਛฎቛ⽼ᄁᚭᢙ䈱ផ⒖
㶎ቄ▵⺞ᢛᷣ䉂ᐕ₸឵▚୯
䋨ਁᚭ䋩 䋨ਁᚭ䋩 䋨䊱䋩
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩☨ോ⋭
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩☨ോ⋭䇮National Association of Realtors
㪊 㪋 㪌 㪍 㪎 㪏 㪐 㪈㪇
㪈㪐㪐㪏 㪈㪐㪐㪐 㪉㪇㪇㪇 㪉㪇㪇㪈 㪉㪇㪇㪉 㪉㪇㪇㪊 㪉㪇㪇㪋 㪉㪇㪇㪌 㪉㪇㪇㪍 㪉㪇㪇㪎 㪉㪇㪇㪏 㪏㪇
㪈㪇㪇 㪈㪉㪇 㪈㪋㪇 㪈㪍㪇 㪈㪏㪇 㪉㪇㪇 㪉㪉㪇 㪉㪋㪇
㪉㪇㪇㪇 㪉㪇㪇㪈 㪉㪇㪇㪉 㪉㪇㪇㪊 㪉㪇㪇㪋 㪉㪇㪇㪌 㪉㪇㪇㪍 㪉㪇㪇㪎 㪉㪇㪇㪏 㪊㪌㪇 㪋㪇㪇 㪋㪌㪇 㪌㪇㪇 㪌㪌㪇 㪍㪇㪇 㪍㪌㪇 㪎㪇㪇 㪎㪌㪇 ਛฎቛ⽼ᄁᚭᢙ
䋨ฝ⋡⋓䉍䋩
ᣂ▽ቛ⌕Ꮏᚭᢙ 䋨Ꮐ⋡⋓䉍䋩
14
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴ ዊᨋᱜብ᳁ ᚑၞ⊛䈭ቛᏒ႐䈱㗴
ේ࿃ ਥ䈮ᓇ㗀䉕ฃ䈔 䈢ੱ
䉦䊥䊐䉤䊦䊆䉝䇮 䊐䊨䊥䉻
ቛ䊋䊑䊦፣უ䇮 䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛
䊍䉴䊌䊆䉾䉪
䊚䉲䉧䊮䇮䉥䊊䉟 䉥
⥄േゞ↥ᬺ䈱ਇ ᝄ
⊕ੱ䊑䊦䊷䉦 䊤䊷
15
2000ᐕ䌾2005ᐕ㗃 2006ᐕ㗃䌾
䋼䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛㗴ᵄ䈱⚻〝䋨ቛᏒ႐䋩䋾
ቛᏒ႐䈱㗴䈏䇮⸽ൻ䈘䉏䈢䈖䈫䈮䉋䉍㊄ⲢᏒ႐䈮વ
㊄ⲢᏒ႐䈱㗴䈲䇮㌁ⴕ䈱ା↪❗䈮䉋䉍ታ⚻ᷣ䈮વ
㊄Ⲣ✭
ੱญჇട ቛଔᩰ
Ⲣ⾗ክᩏ✭ 䍙䍪䍼䍪䍽䍵䍐䍯Ⴧട
㊄Ⲣᒁ䈐✦䉄
ቛଔᩰਅ⪭
ክᩏ෩ᩰൻ
ᑧṛჇട ขᓧ⢻ജૐਅ
ᐶჇട
䇸ቛ䇹 ቛ፣უ
☨ቛ䊨䊷䊮䈱䊎䉳䊈䉴䊝䊂䊦
䇼৻ᰴᏒ႐䇽 䇼ੑᰴᏒ႐䇽
ௌᮭ
ᄁළ ⸽ൻ
Ⲣ⾗ ᛩ⾗㌁ⴕ
䊝䊷䉭䊷䉳
䊋䊮䉪 ቛ 丬丶 丱
↪
⠪
ᛩ
⾗
⸽ൻ ኅ Ⲣ⾗
㌁ⴕ╬
ௌᮭ
#IGPE[
ᄁළ
㗍㊄ 䇸⚵ᚑ⽼ᄁ 䋨16&䋩䇹 㗍㊄⠪
䇸⚵ᚑ
䋨16*䋩䇹
17
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴ ዊᨋᱜብ᳁ ᚑ㪇 㪉㪇 㪋㪇 㪍㪇 㪏㪇 㪈㪇㪇 㪈㪉㪇
㪇㪎㪆㪈 㪇㪎㪆㪊 㪇㪎㪆㪌 㪇㪎㪆㪎 㪇㪎㪆㪐 㪇㪎㪆㪈㪈 㪇㪏㪆㪈 㪇㪏㪆㪊
䋼䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䊨䊷䊮䈱⸽ൻຠ䈱ଔᩰផ⒖䋾
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩䉟䊮䉫䊤䊮䊄㌁ⴕ 㶎2006ᐕH2Vintage䈱Aᩰ䈱ABX.HEᜰᢙ
18
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴ ዊᨋᱜብ᳁ ᚑ㪄㪋㪇㩼 㪄㪉㪇㩼 㪇㩼 㪉㪇㩼 㪋㪇㩼 㪍㪇㩼 㪏㪇㩼 㪈㪇㪇㩼
㪈㪐㪐㪈 㪈㪐㪐㪊 㪈㪐㪐㪌 㪈㪐㪐㪎 㪈㪐㪐㪐 㪉㪇㪇㪈 㪉㪇㪇㪊 㪉㪇㪇㪌 㪉㪇㪇㪎
ో
䊒䊤䉟䊛 㪠㪦䇮㪘㫃㫋㪄㪘╬
䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛
㪄㪋㪇㩼 㪄㪉㪇㩼 㪇㩼 㪉㪇㩼 㪋㪇㩼 㪍㪇㩼 㪏㪇㩼 㪈㪇㪇㩼
㪈㪐㪐㪈 㪈㪐㪐㪊 㪈㪐㪐㪌 㪈㪐㪐㪎 㪈㪐㪐㪐 㪉㪇㪇㪈 㪉㪇㪇㪊 㪉㪇㪇㪌 㪉㪇㪇㪎
Ꮏᬺะ䈔Ⲣ⾗
ᬺ↪ਇേ↥Ⲣ⾗
䂓ቛ䊨䊷䊮 䂓Ꮏᬺ䊨䊷䊮䊶ᬺ↪ਇേ↥䊨䊷䊮
FRB䈲྾ඨᦼ䈮৻ᐲ䇮㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐䈱Ⲣ⾗ክᩏᘒᐲ䈏೨ᦼ䈫Ყセ䈚䈩෩ᩰൻ䈚䈢䈎✭䈚䈢䈎䉕⺞ᩏ䇯
⿷ਅ䈪䈲䇮ቛ䊨䊷䊮䈱䉂䈭䉌䈝䇮Ꮏᬺะ䈔Ⲣ⾗䉇ᬺ↪ਇേ↥ะ䈔Ⲣ⾗䉅Ⲣ⾗䈏෩ᩰൻ䈚䈩䈇䉎䇯 䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛㗴䈏ᐢ䈒⚻ᷣ৻⥸䈮ᵄ䈚䇮න䈭䉎ቛᏒ႐䈱㗴䈱䉴䊁䊷䉳䉕ᣢ䈮ㅢ䉍䈚䈩䈇䉎
䈖䈫䉕␜ໂ䇯
FRB “Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey”䉋䉍
㶎ቛ䊨䊷䊮䈲䇮2007ᐕ╙2྾ඨᦼ䈎䉌ಽ䈏⚦ಽൻ䈘䉏ㅪ⛯ᕈ䈏䈭䈒䈭䈦䈢䈱䈪䇮2007ᐕ╙1྾ඨᦼ䉁䈪䉕ឝタ䇯 㶎Ꮏᬺะ䈔Ⲣ⾗䊶ᬺ↪ਇേ↥ะ䈔Ⲣ⾗䈲ᄢ㌁ⴕ䈱ᢙሼ
䋼☨㌁䈱Ⲣ⾗ክᩏᘒᐲ䈱෩ᩰൻ䋾
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴ ዊᨋᱜብ᳁ ᚑ
19
㪌㪇 㪍㪇 㪎㪇 㪏㪇 㪐㪇 㪈㪇㪇 㪈㪈㪇 㪈㪉㪇 㪈㪊㪇
㪇㪎㪆㪈 㪉 㪊 㪋 㪌 㪍 㪎 㪏 㪐 㪈㪇 㪈㪈 㪈㪉 㪇㪏㪆㪈 㪉 㪊 㪋 㪌
䇼ේᴤଔᩰ䇽
䋨䊄䊦䋯䊋䊧䊦䋩
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩☨䉣䊈䊦䉩䊷⋭
㶎☨䉣䊈䊦䉩䊷⋭䈱ේᴤଔᩰ䈲‛䈪䇮వ‛ᜰᮡ
䈱WTI䈫䈲⧯ᐓᢙሼ䈏⇣䈭䉎䇯 㶎䋱䊋䊧䊦䋽⚂159䊥䉾䊃䊦
䇼ຠ䋨Commodity䋩ଔᩰ䇽
㪇 㪈㪇㪇 㪉㪇㪇 㪊㪇㪇 㪋㪇㪇 㪌㪇㪇
㪉㪇㪇㪇ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪈ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪉ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪊ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪋ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪌ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪍ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪎ᐕ 㪉㪇㪇㪏ᐕ
㊄
㌃ ዊ㤈 䊃䉡䊝䊨䉮䉲 ᄢ⼺
㶎㪉㪇㪇㪇ᐕ䋱䉕㪈㪇㪇䈫䈚䈢႐ว䈱ᜰᢙ
䋼䉮䊝䊂䉞䊁䉞䊷ଔᩰ䈱േะ䋾
⸽ൻຠ䉕䈲䈛䉄䈫䈚䈢㊄ⲢᏒ႐䈱ᷙੂ䈪ᒁ䈐䈕䉌䉏䈢⾗㊄䈲ේᴤ䇮Ⓝ‛䇮⾆㊄ዻ╬䈱ຠᏒ႐ 䈮ᵹ䇯
䉟䊮䊐䊧 ᔨ䈪FRB䈲䈛䉄㊄Ⲣᒰዪ䈱⥽ข䉍䈱⚂䈮䈭䉎䈫หᤨ䈮䇮ㅜ࿖䈪䈲ᷓೞ䈭㘩ᢱຠ㗴䈮䇯
৻ᣇ䈪䇮ේᴤ㜞䈪Ả䈉↥ᴤ࿖䈱ᐭ♽ᛩ⾗䊐䉜䊮䊄䋨SWF䋩䈲᰷☨䈱㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐䈱⾗䈮ᔕ䈛䉎䊖䊪䉟䊃䊅䉟䊃 䈮䇯
䋨⾗ᢱ䋩䊑䊦䊷䊛䊋䊷䉫䉋䉍ᚑ
20
䉣䊷䉳䉢䊮䉲䊷䈱⚻༡ෂᯏ
• ቛଔᩰਅ⪭㹢䉣䊷䉳䉢䊮䉲䊷䈜䉌ὶ䈕ઃ䈐 㗵Ⴧട䋨ᑧṛ₸䈲䈘䈾䈬
䈞䈝䋩 䊶 㘑⹏ⵍኂ
㸣
䊐䉜䊆䊷䊜䉟䊶䊐䊧䊂䉞䊙䉾䉪䈱ᩣଔᕆ⪭
䋨䋰䋸ᐕ䋷એ᧪䋩
㊄ⲢᏒ႐䈱ਇ᧚ᢱ䈮䈭䈦䈢
21
䉣䊷䉳䉢䊮䉲䊷ᢇᷣ╷⊒
䋨䋰䋸ᐕ䋹䋷ᣣ䋩
• ⊛⾗㊄ᵈ䋨⽷ോ⋭䈏ఝవᩣขᓧ䋩
• ᣂဳⲢ⾗䋨⽷ോ⋭䉋䉍䋩
• 䉣䊷䉳䉢䊮䉲䊷䈱⊒ⴕ䈚䈢ቛ䊨䊷䊮ᜂ⸽
䉕⽷ോ⋭䈏⾈䈇ข䉍
㶎䉣䊷䉳䉢䊮䉲䊷䈲⚂䋵ళ䊄䊦䉅䈱ቛ䊨䊷䊮
ௌᮭ䉕䈚䇮䈖䉏䈏⎕✋䈜䉏䈳⇇⊛㊄ Ⲣᕟᘓ
22
☨ᛩ⾗㌁ⴕ䈱⎕✋䇮ᢇᷣว૬
• 䊥䊷䊙䊮䊶䊑䊤䉱䊷䉵䋨ᬺ⇇䋴䋩
䋰䋸ᐕ䋹䋱䋵ᣣ䇮ㅪ㇌⎕↥ᴺ䋱䋱┨䈱ㆡ↪
↳⺧䋨ᢇᷣ䈱䈚ว䈇䈏ⵚ䋩
ㅪ㇌⎕↥ᴺ䋱䋱┨䈲ౣᑪဳಣℂ䋨ᣣᧄ䈱᳃
ౣ↢ᴺ䈮⋧ᒰ䋩 䊶䊜䊥䊦䊥䊮䉼䋨ᬺ⇇䋳䋩
䋰䋸ᐕ䋹䋱䋵ᣣ䇮䊋䊮䉪䉥䊯䉝䊜䊥䉦䈏
⾈⊒
23
☨᰷㊄Ⲣਇᄢ
• AIG 䈱ᢇᷣ䇮䉯䊷䊦䊄䊙䊮䊶䉰䉾䉪䉴䈶䊝䊦
䉧䊮䊶䉴䉺䊮䊧䊷䈱㌁ⴕᜬ䈤ᩣળ␠ൻ䇮䊪䉲䊮 䊃䊮䊶䊚䊠䊷䉼䊞䊦䈱⎕✋䇮䊪䉮䊎䉝䈱ᢇᷣว ૬╬
• 䊣䊷䊨䉾䊌䈮㊄Ⲣਇ㘧䈶Ἣ
• ☨✕ᕆ⚻ᷣቯൻᴺ᩺ਅ㒮䈪৻ᐲุ
㹢㊄Ⲣਇ⛯䈒
ᒰዪ䈱ኻᔕ
• ㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐╬䈻䈱⾗ᧄᵈ
• ᵹേᕈ䈱ଏ⛎
䊶 ㌁ⴕ㑆ขᒁ䈱⊛⸽
䊶 㗍㊄⼔
䊶 ਅ䈕
䊶 ᤨଔળ⸘䈱⋥䈚䉇ᬌ⸛
䊶 ᥊᳇ኻ╷䋨䉝䊜䊥䉦䇮ᣣᧄ䇮䊐䊤䊮䉴䇮䊄䉟䉿䇮ਛ࿖╬䋩 䊶 ㊄Ⲣ䉰䊚䉾䊃 (08 ᐕ 11/14,11/15)
25
៊ᄬ䈫ᓟ䈱ㅢ䈚
• 䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛㗴䈪⇇䈱㊄Ⲣᯏ㑐䈏ⵍ䉎
៊ᄬ䈲ᓟᢙᐕ㑆䈪⚂ 1 ళ 4050 ం䊄䊦䈮
䉎䋨䌉䌍䌆䇮 08 ᐕ 10 7 ᣣ䋩 㸣
㊄Ⲣᕟᘓ䈲࿁ㆱ䇯䈢䈣Ἣ⒳ᱷ䉎䇯
26
⇼ૃଔᲧ₸䋨╬㒰䈒ଔ /GDP)
27
ᣣᧄ䈱ቛ㊄Ⲣ䈻䈱␜ໂ
• ᣣᧄ䈱ቛ㊄Ⲣ䈏䉰䊑䊒䊤䉟䊛䈫ห䈛䉺䉟䊒 䋨ᄌേ㊄䋩䈏ਥᵹ䈭䈱䈲᳇䈮䈭䉎䈫䈖䉐
• ⸽ൻ䉕ᵴ↪䈚䇮㐳ᦼ࿕ቯ㊄䊨䊷䊮䈱᥉
䉕࿑䉎䈼䈐
• ㊄䊥䉴䉪䈻䈱ℂ⸃䈱ᔀᐩ䇮ᖱႎ㐿␜䇮⸽
ൻᏒ႐䈱⊒ዷᣇ╷䈮䈧䈐䈘䉌䈮⼏⺰䉕ᷓ䉄䉎
䈼䈐
࿕ቯ㊄ᦼ㑆䈱㔛⛎䊚䉴䊙䉾䉼
• ⁁䋨ᐔᚑ 19 ᐕᐲඨᦼ䇮࿖ㅢ⋭⺞ᩏ䋩 ᄌേ 27.6% ࿕ቯ㊄ᦼ㑆ㆬᛯ 58.7%
⸽ൻᡰេ䊨䊷䊮 4.8%
ోᦼ㑆࿕ቯ 8.9%
䊶 Ꮧᦸ䋨ᐔᚑ 19 ᐕᐲ䇮ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴䊈䉾䊃
⺞ᩏ䋩
ᄌേ 13.0% ࿕ቯ㊄ᦼ㑆ㆬᛯ 35.5%
ోᦼ㑆࿕ቯ 51.5%
29
ቛ䊨䊷䊮䈱ຠ․ᕈ䉇
㊄䊥䉴䉪䈻䈱⼂ਇ⿷
• ㆡ↪㊄䉇ᷣ㗵䈱⋥䈚䊦䊷䊦
䇸ℂ⸃䈚䈩䈇䉎䈎ਇ䇹䋫䇸䉋䈒ℂ⸃䈚䈩䈇䈭 䈇䇹䋫䇸ో䈒ℂ⸃䈚䈩䈇䈭䈇䇹
ᄌേ 35.1% ࿕ቯ㊄ᦼ㑆ㆬᛯ 32.6%
䊶 ㊄䈮䈉ᷣ㗵Ⴧട䈻䈱ኻᔕ 䇸ᒰ䈏䈧䈎䈭䈇䇮䉒䈎䉌䈭䈇䇹
ᄌേ 13.0% ࿕ቯ㊄ᦼ㑆ㆬᛯ 12.8%
䋨䈇䈝䉏䉅 20 ᐕ 7 ቛ㊄Ⲣᡰេᯏ᭴䊈䉾䊃⺞
ᩏ䋩 30
S&P 䉟䊮䊂䉾䉪䉴 䋨 Common Stocks 䋩 (1930-1940)
䋨೨ᐕᲧ䋦䇮☨ോ⋭䇺ᱧผ⛔⸘䇻䈮䉋䉎䋩
1930 1935 1940
31
☨ታ⾰ GDP ೨ᐕᲧ 1930-2007
( ☨ോ⋭ )
1930 2007
☨ャ೨ᐕᲧ ( 1990-2007) 䋺☨ോ⋭
33
1990 2000 2007
䌉䌍䌆⚻੍᷹ᷣ (2008,2009)
34
྾ඨᦼታ⾰䌇䌄䌐ᚑ㐳₸
䋨ቄ▵⺞ᢛᷣ䉂೨ᦼᲧ䋦䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䋩
35
ല᳞ੱ₸䋨ᣂⷙቇත䉕㒰䈐䇮䊌䊷䊃ഭ⠪䉕䉃䋩
䋨ෘ↢ഭ⋭䋩
ᣣᧄ䈱ታ⾰ GDP ᚑ㐳₸䋨೨ᐕᲧ䋦䇮ౝ㑑ᐭ䋩
37
1995 2000 2007
