EFFECTIVENESS OF TSUNAMI EVACUATION PRINCIPLES

39

( QPUKFGTKPIVJG EQORNGZKV[ FKUCUVGTGXCEWCVKQP RTKPEKRNG OC[ RTQXKFG CRTKOCT[ MPQYNGFIG QP J QY VQ GXCEWCVG CPF J QY VQ RTGRCTG DGHQTG C FKUCUVGT 3 CVWTCNFKUCUVGTUUWEJ CUGCTVJSWCMGU KPENWFKPI GCTVJSWCMG-KPFWEGF VUWPCOK QT V[RJ QQPU QEEWT HTGSWGPVN[ KP / CRCP CPF XCTKQWU OCPWCNUGZKUVCPF CTG FKUVTKDWVGF D[ OWPKEKRCNKVKGU 5GQRNG GPEQWPVGTVJG FKUCUVGTUCPF CTG GCUKN[ KPCRCPKEOQFG < GIUEJ GKFGTGVCN < J GPCFKUCUVGTUVTKMGU RGQRNG OWUVOCMG KORQTVCPV UWTXKXCNFGEKUKQPU 9J G[ OWUV ENGCTN[ WPFGTUVCPF VJG UKVWCVKQP CPF FGEKFG YJ CV VQ FQ KOOGFKCVGN[ & YGNN-FGUKIPGF FKUCUVGT RTGRCTGF OCPWCNECP HCEKNKVCVG OCMKPI VJG DGUVEJ QKEGU - GPEG VJG GXCEWCVKQPRTKPEKRNGURNC[ CTQNG VQ FGNKXGTCPF IWKFG J QY VQ TGCEVCPF DGJ CXG YJ GP RGQRNG GPEQWPVGTGCTVJSWCMGUCPFQTGCTVJSWCMG-KPFWEGF VUWPCOKU>WPGVCN

.PRCTVKEWNCT / CRCPGUG IQXGTPOGPVJ CUDGGPRTQOQVKPICPF RQKPVKPIQWVVJG KORQTVCPEG QHVJG HQNNQYKPIVJTGG HCEGVU k QHUGNH-J GNREQTTGURQPFKPIVQ [QWTUGNHQPYJ CV[QWECPFQ QP[QWT QYP QHEQQRGTCVKQPJ GNRKPIGCEJ QVJGTKP[QWTEQOOWPKV[ CPF QHRWDNKE-J GNRCUM HQTJ GNRVQ VJG IQXGTPOGPVl .PVJG NGUUQPUNGCTPGF HTQO VJG - CPUJ KP-&YCLK GCTVJSWCMG CU CPKPKVKCNTGCEVKQP KPFKXKFWCNUnUGNH-J GNRECRCDKNKV[ YCUVJG MG[ HQTUWTXKXCNDGECWUG FKUCUVGTUJ KV RNCEGUYJ GTG VJGTG YCUCNCTIG PWODGTQHTGUKFGPVUCPF EQQRGTCVKQPCPF RWDNKE-J GNROC[ CNUQ DG FGNC[GF 9J CVKU KVKU PGEGUUCT[ HQT VJG TGUKFGPVU VQ RTQVGEVVJGOUGNXGU DCUGF QP VJG IWKFGNKPGU FWTKPICFKUCUVGTGXCEWCVKQPRGTKQF &VNGCUVQPEG C[GCT VJGTG J CUDGGPVTCKPKPIVJTQWIJ FKUCUVGT RTGXGPVKQP VTCKPKPIFTKNN RCORJ NGVU CPF FKUCUVGT RTGXGPVKQP GXGPVU KP VJG NQECNIQXGTPOGPV - COCFC >WP

.PCFFKVKQPVQ KORNGOGPVKPIVJGUG CEVKQPU KVKUKORQTVCPVVQ TGXKGY J QY VJGUG KPUVTWEVKQPUYKNN J GNRUCXG J WOCPNKXGU &UKVYCUDTKGHN[ TGXKGYGF KP8GEVKQP QH( J CRVGT RTGXKQWUUVWFKGU J CXG RTQXKFGF HGY SWCNKVCVKXG CUUGUUOGPVU QP J QY RGQRNG DGJ CXG FWTKPI FKUCUVGTU NKMG VJG TGEQOOGPFGF RTKPEKRNGU HQT GXCEWCVKQP DGJ CXKQTU!CPF VJGTG KU PQ UVWF[ HQTTGXKGYKPI VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP RTKPEKRNGU 8KPEG GXCEWCVKQP DGJ CXKQT TGUGCTEJ KUDCUGF QP OGOQTKGUQHRGQRNG YJ Q GZRGTKGPEGF VJG FKUCUVGTU CSWCPVKVCVKXG CUUGUUOGPVKUFKHHKEWNV&PGZRGTKOGPVCNKPXGUVKICVKQPHQT VJG SWCPVKVCVKXG GXCNWCVKQP QHVJG RGTUQPnU DGJ CXKQT KU CNUQ HGY KP PWODGTU DGECWUG QHVJG FKHHKEWNV[ KP GPUWTKPI UCHGV[ CPF GVJKECNKUUWGU 2 QTGQXGT HQNNQYKPI VJG RTKPEKRNGU J CXG OKZGF TGUWNVU VJGTG CTG DQVJ UWTXKXGF CPF PQP-UWTXKXGF ECUGU HTQO VJG HQNNQYKPI HQWT RTKPEKRNGU 9 J G TGRQTVJ KIJ NKIJ VU VJG KORQTVCPEG QHCP KPFKXKFWCNOCMKPI C RTQRGT FGEKUKQP EQPEGTPKPI J KUJ GT UKVWCVKQP .VOGCPUVQ KPXGUVKICVG VJG GHHGEVKXGPGUUQHVJG RTKPEKRNGUKPVJG FKUCUVGT

41

9UWPCOK GXCEWCVKQPRTKPEKRNGUKP/ CRCPCTG OQUVNKMGN[ KPENWFGF KPCPGCTVJSWCMG GXCEWCVKQP OCPWCN &U HQT VJG VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP RTKPEKRNGU VJTGG RTKPEKRNGU HQT GXCEWCVKQP DGJ CXKQT D[

5TQHGUUQT0 CVCFC9QUJ KVCMCCV, WPOC: PKXGTUKV[ CTG YGNNMPQYPKP/ CRCP

C ) Q PQVUVWEM QP YJ CV[QW MPQY CPF CUUWOG : PFGTUVCPFKPI NKOKVCVKQPU QHJ C\ CTF OCR CPF GXGPVJQWIJ KVKUPQVCJ C\ CTFQWUCTGC VJGTG KUCNYC[UCRQUUKDKNKV[ VJCVFCOCIGUEQWNF DG GZRGEVGF OQTG VJCPYJ GPVJG CEVWCNFKUCUVGTQEEWTU

D ) Q [QWT DGUVFWTKPI CP GXCEWCVKQP 9CMKPI CEVKQPU VQ YJ CV[QW ECP FQ [QWT DGUVCVVJCV VKOG CPF VT[KPIVQ HNGG VQ CJ KIJ GTRNCEG CUUQQPCURQUUKDNG

E ) Q UGNH-OQVKXCVGF GXCEWCVKQP 9CMKPICPKPKVKCVKXG GXCEWCVKQPHQTRTQVGEVKPIQYPNKHG CPF DGKPIUCXGF NKXGUQHRGQRNG CTQWPF [QW

5TQHGUUQT 0 CVCFC CV , WPOC : PKXGTUKV[ ECOG WR YKVJ VJG VJTGG RTKPEKRNGU QH VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP CPF KVJ CUDGGPJ KVVKPIVJG OGFKCURQVNKIJ VCUmCOKTCENG KP0 COCKUJ KnCHVGTVJG , TGCV* CUV/ CRCPGCTVJSWCMG .P0 COCKUJ K YKVJKPVJG .YCVG 5TGHGEVWTG KP/ CRCP VJG UWTXKXCNTCVG QHVJG UVWFGPVUKPGNGOGPVCT[ CPF OKFFNG UEJ QQNUKU 9 J KUUWEEGUUHWNGXCEWCVKQPUVQT[ YCU UJ CTGF KPDQVJ / CRCPCPF VJG YQTNF .VYCUUJ QYPKPCTGRQTVCVCEQPHGTGPEG k8GPFCK ) KCNQIWG QPFKUCUVGTTKUM OCPCIGOGPVYKVJ .2 +l KP DGECWUG GXGT[QPG YCUCYCTG QHVJG KORQTVCPEG QHFKUCUVGT RTGRCTGFPGUU DGHQTG C FKUCUVGT 9 J G VJTGG RTKPEKRNGU CTG RTGUGPVGF KP PQ RCTVKEWNCT QTFGTQHRTKQTKV[ KPVJG HQNNQYKPI CUKVKUDGNKGXGF VJG[ CTG CNNQHGSWCNKORQTVCPEG

9 J G CDQXG RTKPEKRNGUYGTG TGRJ TCUGF CUUKZRTKPEKRNGUWUKPIOQTG DGJ CXKQTTGNCVGF YQTFU .P VJKUUVWF[ KVKUWUGF CUVJG HQNNQYKPIUKZRTKPEKRNGU 9J GTG KUPQ RCTVKEWNCTQTFGTQHRTKQTKV[ KPVJG HQNNQYKPI D[ 3 54 G-+1&, C PQP-RTQHKVTGUGCTEJ KPUVKVWVG VJCVCPCN[\ GU NGUUQPU HTQO VJG GCTVJSWCMG CPF VUWPCOK

5 ( J GEM VJG HKTG UQWTEGUYJ GPCPGCTVJSWCMG QEEWTUTGHGTTGF VQ J GTGCHVGTCUm5 n 5 7 GICTFNGUUQHCP[ UKVWCVKQP[QWCTG KP GXCEWCVG VQ VJG J KNNUQTJ KIJ GTITQWPFUm5 n 5 &EVKXGN[ CPF CWVQPQOQWUN[ GXCEWCVG m5 n

5 &UUGUUVJG UKVWCVKQPCPF OCMG CFGEKUKQPFGURKVG RTGXKQWUGZRGTKGPEGUm5 n 5 ) Q PQVVJKPM VJCVQPG URGEKHKERNCEG CPF EJ QKEG KUVJG DGUVm5 n

5 ( QQRGTCVG FWTKPICPGXCEWCVKQPm5 n

9 J G CDQXG RTKPEKRNG OC[ GPCDNG VJGO VQ CRRN[ CEVKQPUVQ GXCEWCVG!VJKUKPHQTOCVKQPKPENWFGU CRRTGEKCVKQP QH VJG EWTTGPV UKVWCVKQP FGVGTOKPKPI VJG EQWTUG QH VJG GXCEWCVKQP RTQEGFWTG CUUGUUKPIVJG TGNKCDKNKV[ QHVJG KPHQTOCVKQP CPF WPFGTUVCPFKPIVJG TQNGUQHVJG GXCEWCVKQPCEVKXKV[

< KVJQWVCYGNN-FGXGNQRGF RTQEGFWTCNMPQYNGFIG RGQRNG ECPOCMG DCF FGEKUKQPUQTHCKNVQ TGCEV VQ WPFGUKTCDNG UKVWCVKQPU ) GURKVG UQOG QHVJG FKHHGTGPEGU COQPI VJG RTGXKQWU UVWFKGU OCP[

UEJ QNCTU OQTGQXGT CITGG VJCVGCTN[ GXCEWCVKQP KU XKVCNHQT GPUWTKPI UCHGV[ HTQO VUWPCOK .P 8GEVKQP RGQRNG YJ Q UVCTVGF VQ GXCEWCVG YKVJKP OKPWVGUTGRQTVGF ITGCVGTUWTXKXCNTCVGU .V EQWNF KPHGT VJCVVJGTG KU PQVGPQWIJ VKOG VQ FGEKFG EQPUKFGTKPI VJGTG CTG OCP[ EQORNKECVGF KUUWGUUWEJ CUHCOKN[ OGODGTUCPF EWTTGPVNQECVKQP

- QYGXGT VJGTG KU PQVC UKPING TWNG VQ CRRN[ VQ GXGT[ VUWPCOK .P TGICTFU VQ VJG RTGXKQWU UVWFKGU KVKUPQVGCU[ VQ IKXG KPUVTWEVKQPUVQ CRRN[ VQ GXGT[ GXGPVHQTGXGT[QPG ( QPUKFGTKPIVJG DTGCFVJ QHRQVGPVKCNFKUCUVTQWU UKVWCVKQPU YJ KEJ FKHHGT COQPI NQECVKQPU CPF XCTKGV[ QHURGEKCN PGGFU VJG UKZ RTKPEKRNGU OKIJ VDG WUGF D[ XCTKQWU RGQRNG CPF HQT XCTKQWU UKVWCVKQPU 9 J G HTGSWGPE[ QHVJG EJ QUGPRTKPEKRNG FKHHGTU DWVVJG EQPUGSWGPEGUQHRGQRNGnUEJ QKEG KUGKVJGTNKXG QTFKG

- GPEG KVKU PGEGUUCT[ VQ GZCOKPG VJG CDQXG UKZ RTKPEKRNGU HQT VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP DGJ CXKQT HTQO VJG CPCN[UKU FWTKPI VJG , TGCV* CUV/ CRCP VUWPCOK 'CUGF QP CP GORKTKECNFCVC HTQO DQVJ UWTXKXQTU CPF VJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI UWEJ CU HTQO VJG DGJ CXKQTU CEVWCNN[ VCMGP D[ RGQRNG FWTKPIVJG FKUCUVGTU KVCNNQYUHQTWUVQ HKIWTG QWVVJG RJ GPQOGPQPCPF KFGPVKH[ VJG RTQDNGOU ) CVCCPF TGUGCTEJ SWGUVKQPU

9Q KPXGUVKICVG VJG DGJ CXKQTUQHVJG VYQ ITQWRU-DQVJ UWTXKXQTUCPF PQP-UWTXKXQTUj VJKUUVWF[

WUGF CPF CPCN[\ GF VJG TGEGKXGF FCVC HTQO < GCVJGTPGYU .P UWOOCT[ FCVC YGTG ICVJGTGF HTQO 2 CTEJ VQ 2 C[ YKVJ YKVPGUUGU HTQO 9QJ QMW VQ 0 CPVQ KPENWFKPI FGUETKRVKXG EQOOGPVU +QT VJG EQPVGPVCPCN[UKU QHVJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI RGQRNG VJG HWNN-VGZV EQOOGPVUYGTG ICVJGTGF HTQO YKVPGUUGUCDQWVVJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI &VHKTUV CNNVJG EQOOGPVU YGTG CPCN[\GF DWVPQ OGCPKPIHWNTGUWNVUEQWNF DG HQWPF DGECWUG QHVJG EQOOGPVUYGTG TGRQTVGF CDQWVQPGUGNHQT VJG GPXKTQPOGPV QHITCVKVWFG HQT VJG J GNR TGEGKXGF CPF VQ , QF

43 43

&HVGT GZENWFKPI VJGUG EQOOGPVU QHUWTXKXQTUn HWNN-VGZVEQOOGPVU HQT CPCN[UKU YGTG sqcb &UVJG HKPCNFCVCHQTVJG CPCN[UKU UWTXKXQTUnHWNN-VGZVEQOOGPVUCPF PQP-qWTXKXQTUn YGTG WUGF UGNGEVGF EQOOGPVUTGICTFKPIFGCVJ QTOKUUKPIRGQRNG KPVJG HKXG RTGHGEVWTGU KG EQOOGPVUHTQO 2 K[CIK HTQO .YCVG HTQO +WMWUJ KOC CPF HTQO ( J KDC - GTG CTG UQOG QH VJG GZGORNCT[ EQOOGPVUCDQWVVJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI

WGgpcdgIJ VGT RCUUGF CYC[ - G YGPV VQ ENQUG VJG HNQQFICVGU DWV VJG ICVG GPVKTGN[ FKUCRRGCTGF YKVJ J KO - [GCTUQNF OCP 7 KMW\ GPVCMCFC .YCVG RTGHGEVWTG

WBnnc_jcbcbHQTGXCEWCVKQPVQ PGKIJ DQTJ QQF DWVJ G EQWNF PQVGXCEWCVG J KOUGNH [GCTU QNF OCP .UJ KPQOCMK 2 K[CIK RTGHGEVWTG

&UCTGUWNV CPGZRGTVKPVJKUHKGNF GZVTCEVGF OGCPKPIHWNYQTFUCPFQTUGPVGPEGUHTQO VJG EQOOGPVU;WUb_S ,(/(/ KNNWUVTCVGUCPF RTQXKFGUVJG HQNNQYKPIVJTGG UVGRUQHCPCN[\ KPIFQEWOGPVU CPF VJG UWOOCT[ QHVJG CPCN[UKUHNQY

FZRGTVKPVJKUHKGNF TGCF CPF UGNGEVGF MG[ DGJ CXKQTqHQTPQP-UWTXKXQTUCPF UWTXKXQTU HTQWRKPIMG[ YQTFUCPF UGPVGPEGUKPVQ VYQ ITQWRU

TQTVKPITCPMUKPVQ GCEJ QHVJG DGJ CXKQTUYKVJKPVJG VYQ ITQWRUDCUGF QPHTGSWGPE[

;WUFC7(/7 GUGCTEJ 2 GVJQFQNQI[

-34 =7 CPF-34 =7 UWOOCTK\ G VJG TCPMUQHGXCEWCVKQP-FKUVWTDCPEG CPF UWEEGUU-KPFWEGF DGJ CXKQT DCUGF QP VJG HTGSWGPE[ QH UWEJ DGJ CXKQTU .P VJKU UVWF[ GXCEWCVKQP-FKUVWTDCPEG DGJ CXKQT TGHGTU VQ CEVKQPU VJCVNGF VQ FGCVJ 8QOG GXCEWCVKQP-FKUVWTDCPEG DGJ CXKQTU FWTKPI VJG FKUCUVGTFKF PQVGXCEWCVG CPFQTGXCEWCVGF VQQ NCVG 9J GUG CEVKQPUNGF VQ OCLQTKPLWTKGUQTFGCVJ Tsaacqq-KPFWEGF DGJ CXKQT KP EQPVTCUV J CF VJG QRRQUKVG GHHGEV & V[RKECNGZCORNG QHUWEEGUU -KPFWEGF DGJ CXKQTKUGXCEWCVKQPYKVJQWVJ GUKVCVKQP

'CUGF QP-34 =7D _lb KVKUENGCTVJCVKPKVKCVKPIGCTN[ GXCEWCVKQP KUXKVCNVQ UCHGV[ KP C VUWPCOK .P TGICTFU VQ VJG UWEEGUU-KPFWEGF DGJ CXKQT KP-34 =7 UQOG RGTUQPU YJ Q YGTG PQV GZRGEVKPI C VUWPCOK OCPCIGF VQ GXCEWCVG CU C TGUWNVQHJ CXKPI DGGP XGTDCNN[ YCTPGF D[ VJQUG CTQWPF VJGO .VKU VJGTGHQTG ETWEKCNHQT TGUKFGPVU YJ Q EQWNF DG CHHGEVGF D[ VJG VUWPCOKU VQ WPFGTUVCPF VJG KORQTVCPEG QH KPKVKCVKPI GCTN[ GXCEWCVKQP 7 GICTFKPI GXCEWCVKQP-FKUVWTDCPEG DGJ CXKQT KP-34 =7 FGURKVG VJG VUWPCOK YCTPKPIU OCP[ RGTUQPU YJ Q YGTG RTGUGPVQP NQY ITQWPF FKF PQVJ CXG VKOG VQ GXCEWCVG VQ J KIJ GT RNCEGU 9J GTG YGTG CNUQ ECUGUQHRGTUQPUNQUKPI VJGKTNKXGUFWG VQ HCKNKPIVQ RGTHQTO PGEGUUCT[ GXCEWCVKQPDGJ CXKQT +WTVJGTOQTG KVKUKORQTVCPV VQ UVC[ KP UCHG CPF CUUKIPGF NQECVKQPU &HVGT VUWPCOK CNCTOU YGTG KUUWGF RGTUQPU TGNQECVGF VQ TGHWIGU DWV VJGP YGPV DCEM VQ VJGKT J QWUGU DGHQTG VJG VUWPCOK EQORNGVGN[ GPFGF 8WEJ ct_as_rgml-FKUVWTDCPEG DGJ CXKQTNGF J QYGXGT VQ CPKTTGXGTUKDNG TKUM

-34 =7 7 CPMKPIQHVJG GXCEWCVKQP-FKUVWTDCPEG DGJ CXKQTU

S_li Ccf_tgmp Gpcosclaw

2 7 QCF EQPIGUVKQPVTCHHKELCO 37/4&

3 - GNRQVJGTRGQRNG 33/5&

4 ) Q YQTM CPF FWV[ HQTTGUEWG 24/;&

5 ) Q PQVGXCEWCVG FWG VQ PQYTQPIKPHQTOCVKQP 24/8&

6 , Q VQ HKPF HCOKN[TGNCVKXGU ;/8&

7 .IPQTG VJG YCTPKPIDCUGF QP RCUVGZRGTKGPEGU 9/;&

45

-34 =7 7 CPMKPIQHVJG UWEEGUU-KPFWEGF DGJ CXKQTU

S_li Ccf_tgmp Gpcosclaw

2 .OOGFKCVGN[ GXCEWCVG 63/6&

3 +QNNQY QVJGTRGQRNGnUFKTGEVKQP 4;/5&

4 7 GOGODGTHQTOGTFKUCUVGTU 9/2&

&EVKQPU VCMGP COQPI VJG UKZ VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP RTKPEKRNGU QHVJG PQP-UWTXKXQTU CPF VJG UWTXKXQTU ECP DG KPENWFGF CU RQVGPVKCNHCEVQTU GZRNCKPKPI YJ [ UQOG OQTG VJCP QVJGTU DGECOG XKEVKOU HTQO VJG FKUCUVGT .P QVJGT YQTFU VYQ ITQWRU OC[ UJ QY UKIPKHKECPVFKHHGTGPEGU KP VJGKT EJ QKEGUHQT DGJ CXKQT FWTKPI C FKUCUVGT 9J GTGHQTG VJKU UVWF[ EQPUKFGTUVJG TCPM QHVJG RTKPEKRNG GZRNCPCVKQPVCMGPCPF VGUVUVJGO

- [RQVJGUKU 9 J GTG KU C FKHHGTGPEG KP VJG EJ QKEG QHCOQPI VJG UKZ VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP RTKPEKRNGUDGVYGGPVJG UWTXKXQTUCPF VJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI 'CUGF QPVJG HTGSWGPE[ QHVJG UKZ GXCEWCVKQPRTKPEKRNGUVCMGPD[ VJG UWTXKXQTU YJ KEJ GXCEWCVKQPRTKPEKRNG YCUWVKNK\GF VJG OQUV DGKPIQPG CPF VJG NGCUVDGKPIUKZ 'CUGF QPVJG HTGSWGPE[ QHVJG UKZGXCEWCVKQPRTKPEKRNGU VCMGPD[ VJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI YJ KEJ GXCEWCVKQPRTKPEKRNG YCUWVKNK\GF VJG OQUVDGKPIQPG CPF VJG NGCUVDGKPIUKZ%

2 GVJQFU 9GZVOKPKPI

+QT EQPVGZVCPCN[UKU YKVJ HWNN-VGZVEQOOGPVU VGZVOKPKPI J CU DGGP UVWFKGF WPFGT XCTKQWU ECVGIQTKGU CPF RWTRQUGU KG DKQOGFKECNKPHQTOCVKQP CPCN[UKU 9CPCDG GVCN !- G ( J W .PRCTVKEWNCT FWTKPIVJG , TGCV* CUV/ CRCP* CTVJSWCMG J WIG COQWPVQHKPHQTOCVKQP J CU DGGP GZRCPFGF VJTQWIJ VJG OCUU OGFKC .P QTFGT VQ FKUEWUU C RQUUKDKNKV[ QH FKUCUVGT OCPCIGOGPVWUKPIVGZVOKPKPI , TGCV* CUV/ CRCP* CTVJSWCMG 'KI) CVC< QTMUJ QR 5TQLGEV RTQXKFGF QPG YGGM YQTVJ QHFCVC CHVGT VJG GCTVJSWCMG QEEWTTGF KG &UCJ K PGYURCRGT CTVKENGU , QQING 9TGPFU 9 ; DTQCFECUVKPIUETKRVWTGU 9YGGVU CPF UQ QP 9 J G RCTVKEKRCPVUTG-CPCN[\ GF VJG FCVCVJCVOC[ QEEWTKPVJG HWVWTG KPECUG QHCFKUCUVGT VQ FKUEWUUYJ CVECPDG FQPG VQ FGXGNQRVJG

UGTXKEG 9 J G RTQLGEVIKXGUCEJ CPEG VQ HKIWTG QWVVJCVVGZVOKPKPIWUCIG HQTFKUCUVGTOCPCIGOGPV 9J G RTGUGPVUVWF[ FQGU PQVFGCNYKVJ VJG EQPEGRVQHVGZVOKPKPIKP FGRVJ DWVTCVJGTYKVJ WUKPI ucjj-FGXGNQRGF UQHVYCTG HQTKVCPF KVUTGUWNVU

9 J G HWNNVGZVQHCNNEQNNGEVGF EQOOGPVUYGTG CPCN[\ GF WUKPIVJG 0 - ( QFGT CHTGG UQHVYCTG HQT VJG SWCPVKVCVKXG CPCN[UKU QHVJG / CRCPGUG NCPIWCIG - KIWEJ K 0 QKEJ K .VRTQXKFGU DCUKE KPHQTOCVKQPQPVGZVFCVC UWEJ CUVJG QEEWTTGPEG TCVG QHEGTVCKP YQTFUCPF EQ-QEEWTTGPEG YQTFU CU YGNNCU URGEKHKE CPCN[UKU WUKPI OCEJ KPG NGCTPKPI CNIQTKVJO UWEJ CU 3 C`XG 'C[GU ENCUUKHKGT / CPLCPCO ) GVCN : UKPI VJG RTQITCO VJKU UVWF[ GZCOKPGU VJG TGUGCTEJ QHEQWPVKPI J QY OCP[ RGQRNG HQNNQY VJG UKZRTKPEKRNGUQHVJG VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP

2 CEJ KPG NGCTPKPI

2 CEJ KPG NGCTPKPI CDTCPEJ QHCTVKHKEKCNKPVGNNKIGPEG KUCUEKGPVKHKEFKUEKRNKPG EQPEGTPGF YKVJ VJG FGUKIP CPF FGXGNQROGPVQHCNIQTKVJOU VJCVCNNQY EQORWVGTU VQ GXQNXG DGJ CXKQTU DCUGF QP GORKTKECNFCVC .PRCTVKEWNCT CUWRGTXKUGF NGCTPKPIRTQXKFGF D[ J WOCPGZRGTVUNCDGNVJG VTCKPKPI GZCORNGUDGECWUG KVECPVCMG CFXCPVCIG VQ TGEQIPK\ G EQORNGZRCVVGTPUCUCNCDGNGF ITQWRKPVJKU UVWF[

-34 =7 * ZCORNGUQHIGPGTCVGF UKOKNCTUGPVGPEGUHQTVJG RTKPEKRNGU 8KZ5TKPEKRNGU 8KOKNCTUGPVGPEGUQHVJG RTKPEKRNG {á/Ñ0=L'-dR¹Î8N

( J GEM VJG HKTG UQWTEGU YJ GP CP GCTVJSWCMG maaspq*

{á³±™ '­dR¹Î'«­8N(

{á/=LI9­R¹Î(

CE.182EåsEÖ4N

7 GICTFNGUU QHCP[ UKVWCVKQP [QW CTG KP GXCEWCVG VQ VJG J KNNUQTJ KIJ GTITQWPFU

82Eå*C5PHÙà8N(

×1åHÙà(

ÇL°e7AÙà8N

&EVKXGN[ CPF CWVQPQOQWUN[ GXCEWCVG

Çh.L°e7AÙà8N(

I9GÇhFÓR¹a8N(

ÍÃB_ä7=ZBJ'<F}F¯¦Rj–

7ØiE„ Ž 8N

&UUGUUVJG UKVWCVKQPCPF OCMG CFGEKUKQPFGURKVG RTGXKQWUGZRGTKGPEGU

J+X‹ Ùà/ÌD}tEÉm8N(

VUTSEDL9È?·*AÉm8N(

Ùà7=C5PB'5OBohCQ9E' 6LE‚ fRµ‘ 7A› wR‡ 18

) QPnVVJKPM VJCVVJG EWTTGPVRNCEG CPF EJ QKEG KU VJG DGUV

KM‚ fDÙà}R’ 8(

X‹ B‚ Œ G;9KM‚ fDC5PRµ‘ 8(

47

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

3 C`XG 'C[GU( NCUUKHKGT

3 C`XG 'C[GU ENCUUKHKGT CPCN[UKU YCU EQPFWEVGF VQ KPXGUVKICVG J QY VJG UKZ RTKPEKRNGU YGTG CFFTGUUGF D[ VJG EQOOGPVUHTQO DQVJ VJG UWTXKXQTUCPF VJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI .P URKVG QHVJGKT PCKXG FGUKIPCPF CRRCTGPVN[ QXGTUKORNKHKGF CUUWORVKQPU 3 CKXG 'C[GUENCUUKHKGTJ CUYQTMGF SWKVG YGNNKPOCP[ EQORNGZTGCN-YQTNF UKVWCVKQPU9KPIGVCN

'CUKECNN[ VJG 3 C`XG 'C[GU ENCUUKHKGT UGNGEVU VJG OQUVNKMGN[ ENCUUKHKECVKQP$_EA IKXGP VJG CVVTKDWVG XCNWGU%₌- _>i _E 9 J KUTGUWNVUKP

$_EAM %,')%._FI8H#N$_D3

RTKPEKRNGU HQT VJG VUWPCOK GXCEWCVKQP ECP DG GKVJGT [GU QT PQ Vqgle 0 - ( QFGTnU 'C[GUKCP HWPEVKQP YJ KEJ KUEQOOQPN[ WUGF HQTENCUUKH[KPIFQEWOGPVUD[ VJGKTEQPVGPVKPVQ URCO CPF PQP -URCO G-OCKNU 8CJ COK GVCN / WN[/ Jr _qqskcqVJCVVJGTG CTG QPN[ VYQ OWVWCNN[ GZENWUKXG ENCUUGU kVJG mHQNNQYGTUn CPF mPQP-HQNNQYGTUn QHVJG RTKPEKRNGUl CPF VJCVGXGT[ EQOOGPVKU KP GKVJGTQPG QTVJG QVJGT &UVJG FQEWOGPVUYGTG ECVGIQTK\GF CUmURCOnCPF mPQP-URCOnG-OCKN QWT FCVC ECP DG ENCUUKHKGF KPVQ VJQUG YJ Q HQNNQYGF VJG RTKPEKRNG XGTUGU VJG PQP-HQNNQYGF HQT OQTG gldmpk_rgml- TGHGT VQ mFQEWOGPV ENCUUKHKECVKQPn +QT VGUVKPI QH QWT TGUGCTEJ SWGUVKQP CHVGT OCEJ KPG NGCTPKPI- KVKURQUUKDNG VQ TGEGKXG OQTG FGVCKNGF TGUWNVUCHVGTOCVEJ KPIVJG UKZRTKPEKRNGU CU UJ QYP KP ;9FC7 .P-34 =7 VJG OGCPKPI QHmHQNNQYGFn KU VQ OCVEJ VJG HWNN-VGZV EQOOGPVUVQ VJG RTKPEKRNGU

;9FC7 0* ZCORNGUQHCPCN[UKUHWNN-VGZVEQOOGPVUTGICTFKPIVJG UKZRTKPEKRNGU -34 =7 2* ZCORNGUQHTGUWNVCPCN[UKUHWNN-VGZVEQOOGPVUTGICTFKPIVJG UKZRTKPEKRNGU Om/ 8WTXKXQT3 QP-qsptgtmp 9[RG QH'GJ CXKQTU GmjjmucbA

2 Tsptgtmp , Q VQ CJ KIJ GTITQWPF OCVEJ KPIm5 n Zcq

3 Oml-qsptgtmp - GNRQVJGTUm5 n Zcq

4 Tsptgtmp * XCEWCVG VQ J KIJ GTHNQQTm5 n Zcq

5 Oml-qsptgtmp ( J GEM HKTG UQWTEGUOCVEJ KPIm5 n Zcq

6 Tsptgtmp * XCEWCVG VQ CVUWPCOK DWKNFKPIm5 n Zcq

7 Tsptgtmp 8VC[ CVJ QOG OmOm

49 7 GUWNVU

;9FC7 UJ QYUVJG TGUWNVQH0 - ( QFGTCPCN[UKUQHVJG UWTXKXQTUCPF ;9FC7 UJ QYUVJG TGUWNVU QHVJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI +TQO VJG HKIWTGU VJG 'C[GUKCP UEQTG KU C OGCUWTG QHJ QY FKHHGTGPVKUHTQO VJG J KVTCVG CUCYJ QNG-YJ KEJ KUVJG TCVKQ VJCVYQWNF DG GZRGEVGF KHVJG CEVKQPKU QEEWTTKPI CVTCPFQO DGVYGGP VJG CEVKXG CPF KPCEVKXG 9J G UEQTG CNUQ VCMGU KPVQ CEEQWPVQHVJG VQVCNPWODGT QHQEEWTTGPEGU QHVJG HGCVWTG GPUWTKPI OQTG YGKIJ VKU RNCEGF QP HGCVWTGU VJCVCTG UGGPOQTG QHVGPCPF NGUUYGKIJ VQPVJQUG HQTYJ KEJ VJGTG CTG XGT[ HGY QEEWTTGPEGU- KIWEJ K 0 QKEJ K != W GVCN 9J CVKU KP VJKU TGUGCTEJ VJG J KIJ GT 'C[GUKCP UEQTG OGCPU VJCV VTCKPGF YQTFUUGPVGPEGUQDUGTXGF YKVJKPVJG EQOOGPVUCTG OQTG HTGSWGPVN[

9 J G ENCUUKHKGF UKZ RTKPEKRNGU @5 A EJ GEM VJG HKTG UQWTEGU YJ GP CP GCTVJSWCMG QEEWTU @5 A TGICTFNGUUQHCP[ UKVWCVKQP[QWCTG KP GXCEWCVG VQ VJG J KNNUQTJ KIJ GTITQWPFU @5 A CEVKXGN[ CPF CWVQPQOQWUN[ GXCEWCVG @5 A CUUGUU VJG UKVWCVKQP CPF OCMG C FGEKUKQP FGURKVG RTGXKQWU GZRGTKGPEGU @5 A FQPnVVJKPM VJCVQPG URGEKHKERNCEG CPF EJ QKEG KUVJG DGUV@5 A EQQRGTCVG FWTKPI GXCEWCVKQP CTG OCTMGF CUVJG HQNNQYKPI 5 5 5 5 5 CPF 5 TGURGEVKXGN[

+TQO VJG EQOOGPVU QHVJG UWTXKXQTU ;9FC7 VJG[ TGRQTVGF VJCVRTKPEKRNG @5 A YCU OQUVN[ VCMGP 8GEQPFN[ OQUVVCMGP RTKPEKRNG TGRQTVGF YCU @5 A @5 A CU VJG VJKTF @5 A CU VJG HQWTVJ @5 A CUVJG HKHVJ CPF @5 A CUVJG NGCUVCEVKQPVCMGP

- QYGXGT CUUJ QYPKP ;9FC7 VJG EQOOGPVUCDQWVVJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPIHTQO YKVPGUUGU YGTG TGRQTVGF VJCVVJG RTKPEKRNG @5 A YCU OQUVN[ VCMGP @5 A YCUUGEQPF @5 A CU VJKTF @5 A CU HQWTVJ @5 A CUVJG HKHVJ EJ QKEG CPF @5 A CUVJG NGCUVCEVKQPVCMGP

;9FC7 7 GUWNVUQHVJG UWTXKXQTU

;9FC7 7 GUWNVUQHPQP-qsptgtmpq

;9FC7 EQORCTGUVJG EQORCTKUQPQHVJG VYQ TGUWNVU 9J GTG CTG UQOG FKHHGTGPEGUDGVYGGP VJG QTFGTUQHVJG RTKPEKRNGUVCMGPKPVJG VYQ ITQWRU

11.20

9.83 9.54

8.43

6.70

5.68

#

%

&

' (

$#

$%

BayesianScore

Six Principles

#

%

&

' (

$#

$%

BayesianScore

Six Principles

51 51

;WUb_S ,(,(37 GUWNVUQHDQVJ VYQ ITQWRU/

9 J G UWTXKXQTUWUGF\Q6Q6]\Q3Q3] CPF\Q4Q4] CUVJG VQR EJ QKEGUHTQO VJG UKZRTKPEKRNGUKPYJ KEJ glajsbcb EQPVGPVU CDQWVJ QY QT YJ GTG RGQRNG ct_as_rc JrJr HKTON[ DGNKGXG VJCVOCP[ QHVJG UWTXKXQTUYJ Q NKXGF PGCT FKUCUVTQWUCTGCEQWNF J CXG GUECRGF VJG VUWPCOK/ UJ G[ J CF MPQYP CPF WPFGTUVQQF VJCVVJG[ PGGFGF VQ GXCEWCVG VQ J KIJcpcp epmslbq YJ GP GCTVJSWCMGU QEEWT FWG VQ VJG RQUUKDKNKV[QHrqsl_kg/

.P EQPVTCUV VJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI TGRQTVGF\Q7Q7] CU VJG OQUVHQNNQYGF RTKPEKRNG \Q3Q3] CU VJG UGEQPF CPF\Q5Q5]CUVJG VJKTF CEVKQPVCMGP 'CUGF QPVJGUG QTFGTKPICOQPIVJG UKZRTKPEKRNGU KVKU ENGCTVJCVVJG CEVKQPUVCMGPCPF HQNNQYGF RTKPEKRNGUDGVYGGPVJG VYQ ITQWRUFKHHGT &NUQ @5 A YCU UGNGEVGF CPF HQNNQYGF D[ VJG HGYGUVRGQRNG KPDQVJ QHVJG VYQ ITQWRU‡< QTMKPI, TQWRnUTGRQTV HQTGXCEWCVKQPDGJ CXKQTDCUGF QPGCTVJSWCMG FKUCUVGTRTGXGPVKQPTGUGCTEJ GUˆ UVCVGUVJCVEJ GEMKPI VJG HKTG UQWTEGUCHVGTVJG GCTVJSWCMG EQWNF ECWUG OQTG FCPIGTQWUUKVWCVKQPUHQTRGQRNG 9J GTGHQTG KVYCU TGEQOOGPFGF VQ RTQVGEVJ KU QT J GT DQF[ DGHQTG IQKPI VQ EJ GEM CPF VWTPgle QHHVJG HKTG UQWTEGU

+WTVJGTOQTG VJG CEVKQP OQUVVCMGP D[ VJG FGCF CPF OKUUKPI YCU @5 A &NVJQWIJ mJ GNRKPI QVJGTUnKUTGEQOOGPFGF CURCTVQHVJG GXCEWCVKQPOGVJQF KP/ CRCP KVKUXKGYGF CUCEQPVTQXGTUKCN DGJ CXKQT VJCVEQWNF J QNF WR QT J CORGT C RGTUQP FWTKPI VJG GXCEWCVKQP VJCVNGCFU VQ HCKNKPI VQ RTQVGEVJ KUQTJ GTQYPNKHG

''%(&

''%(&

/%.) /%+*

.%*) .%*)

,%-&

,%-&

+%,.

+%,.

/%.' /%.'

.%'.

.%'.

/%,/

''%*/

''%*/

/%-.

-%+'

#

%

&

' (

$#

$#

$%

$%

$ $ $ $ $ $

Survivor The dead and missing

ドキュメント内 8VWF[ (ページ 59-72)