㻌 ⪃ᐹ㻌

4.5⪃ᐹ 61

䜎䛯䠈✐≀⏕⏘㔞䛸䛿ᙉ䛔㛵㐃䜢ᣢ䛱䠈䛝䜟䜑䛶㏆䛔ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ䛷䛒䜛䛸䛔䛘䜛䠊ᘓタ఍

♫⥲⏘್䜒ᕤᴗ⏕⏘䛸䛴䛺䛜䛳䛶䛚䜚䠈ᐙ␆ᩘ䠈᭷ຠ℺₅㠃✚䛿┦㛵ᛶ䛜ప䛔䠊䝕䞊 䝍ᩘ䛜㝈䜙䜜䛶䛔䜛䛯䜑䠈ᚲ䛪䛧䜒ṇ☜䛺ഴྥ䜢♧䛧䛶䛔䜛䛸䛿䛔䛔䛝䜜䛺䛔䛜ᐇ㉁ⓗ

䛻୚䛘䜙䜜䛯ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ䛿ᕤᴗ⏕⏘㔞䛸㎰ᆅ㠃✚䛻⤠䜙䜜䜛䜒䛾䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䠊

㻌 ⤖ᯝ䛸䛧䛶䠈ᆅୗỈ㔞䜢ேⅭⓗ䛻⥔ᣢ䛧䛶䛔䛟䛯䜑䛻䛿䠈ᕤᴗ䛻䜘䜛ᥭỈ䜢ไ㝈䛩䜛 䛛䠈㎰ᴗ䛻䜘䜛ᥭỈ䜢ไ㝈䛩䜛䛛䛾஧䛴䛧䛛䛺䛔䠊㎰ᴗ䛻䜘䜛ᥭỈ䛾ሙྜ䛿䠈↓⛛ᗎ䛺 㛓஭䜢ไ㝈䛧䠈ྛ஭ᡞ䛻䛚䛔䛶ᥭỈ䛾౑⏝つ๎䜢ᐃ䜑䠈⟶⌮䛧䛶䛔䛟䛣䛸䛜ᚲせ䛷䛒䜛䠊 䜎䛯䠈⠇Ỉ℺₅䜔స≀యᆺ䛾෌⪃䛻䜘䜚℺₅⏝Ỉ⮬య䜢ῶᑡ䛥䛫䜛ྲྀ䜚⤌䜏䜒ᚲせ䛷 䛒䜛䠊䛣䜜䜎䛷䛾ㄪᰝ䛷䠈స௜䛡స≀䛜␗䛺䜛⏿ᆅ䛻䛚䛔䛶ᥭỈ㔞䛸㠃✚䛾㛵ಀ䛛䜙䠈

ྛ✀స≀䛻ᚲせ䛺ᥭỈ㔞䜢᥎ᐃ䛧䛯⤖ᯝ䠄⾲ 4.5䠅䠈䝖䜴䝰䝻䝁䝅䛚䜘䜃䜰䝃䛿ᙜヱᆅᇦ 䛾༢఩㠃✚᪥ᥭỈ㔞䠄2.61 mm䡡day-1䡡m-2䠈2005-2006 ᖺ䛾༡㒊ᆅᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᥭỈ䝫 䞁䝥䛾ᖺ㛫ᾘ㈝㟁ຊ䜢ᇶ䛻⟬ฟ䠅䛸䜋䜌ྠ䛨್䛻䛺䜚䠈䝆䝱䜺䜲䝰䜔䝁䝮䜼䛿ከ䛟䛾ᥭỈ 䛜ᚲせ䛷䛒䜛䛣䛸䛜᫂䜙䛛䛻䛺䛳䛯䠊㏫䛻䝔䞁䝃䜲䜔䝇䜲䜹䛿ᑡ㔞䛾⏝Ỉ䛷᱂ᇵ䛜ྍ⬟

䛷䛒䛳䛯䠊䝆䝱䜺䜲䝰䛺䛹䛾స௜䛡䜢䝔䞁䝃䜲䛺䛹䛻ኚ᭦䛩䜛䛣䛸䛷䠈ከᑡ䛺䜚䛸䜒ᥭỈ㔞 䜢పῶ䛥䛫䜛䛣䛸䛜ฟ᮶䜛䜒䛾䛸᥎ᐹ䛥䜜䜛䠊

⾲4.4:ᆅୗỈ఩䛸♫఍⎔ቃせᅉ䛸䛾┦㛵ᛶ

䠄2002-2006ᖺ䛾ᖺ㛫䝕䞊䝍䜢ᇶ䛻⟬ฟ䠊

᭷ຠ℺₅㠃✚䛻ᆅୗỈ℺₅㠃✚䛿ྵ䜎䜜䛶䛔䛺䛔䠅 せᅉ ┦㛵ಀᩘ せᅉ ┦㛵ಀ

ᩘ

ேཱྀ -0.82 ᭷ຠ℺₅㠃✚ 0.15

㎰ᮧປാຊ 0.80 ✐≀⏕⏘㔞 -0.45

ᐙ␆ᩘ -0.14 ᕤᴗ⏕⏘㔞 -0.75

㎰ᆅ㠃✚ -0.48 ᘓタ఍♫⥲⏘್ -0.47

⾲4.5:୺せస≀䛾᪥⏝Ỉ㔞䠄mm䡡day-1䡡m-2䠅 స≀ྡ ᪥⏝Ỉ㔞 స≀ྡ ᪥⏝Ỉ㔞 䝖䜴䝰䝻䝁䝅 2.77 䝇䜲䜹 2.17

䜰䝃 2.89 䝁䝮䜼 8.41

䝆䝱䜺䜲䝰 8.42 䝔䞁䝃䜲 0.65

*

4.6 㻌 䜎䛸䜑㻌

㻌 2001-2006 ᖺ䠈2013 ᖺ䛻ෆⵚྂ⮬἞༊㐩ᢼ≉᪝䛾ቸ៞Ἑὶᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᆅୗỈ䛾⌧

≧䛸฼⏝䜢ㄪᰝ䛧䛶䛝䛯䠊䛭䛾⤖ᯝ䠈ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䠈≉䛻༡㒊䛾୙ᅽᆅୗỈ䛿᫂☜䛺ῶᑡ ഴྥ䛻䛒䜚䠈䛣䛾ഴྥ䛜ኚ䜟䜙䛺䛡䜜䜀䠈2020ᖺ௦୰ᚋ༙䛻䛿2003ᖺᇶ‽䛾10%䜢ษ 䜛䛣䛸䠈䛩䛺䜟䛱୙ᅽᆅୗỈ䛜฼⏝ᅔ㞴䛻䛺䜛䛣䛸䛜ண᝿䛥䜜䜛䠊

୙ᅽᆅୗỈ䛾ῶᑡ䛾୺䛺せᅉ䛸䛧䛶䛿䠈㎰ᆅ䛾ቑ኱䠈ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾ቑ኱䠈㝆Ỉ㔞䛾ῶ ᑡ䛜⪃䛘䜙䜜䛯䠊2005ᖺ 5᭶䛸2013 ᖺ5᭶䛾䝕䞊䝍䜢ᇶ䛻⟬ฟ䛧䛯ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗ

Ỉῶᑡ㔞䜢⪃䛘䛯ሙྜ䠈㎰ᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾ᙳ㡪䛜⣙2๭䠈㝆Ỉ㔞䛾ῶᑡ䛾ᙳ㡪䛜⣙5๭䛷䛒 䜚䠈ṧ䜚䛾䛛䛺䜚䛾㒊ศ䛜ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾ᙳ㡪䛷䛒䜛䛸᥎ᐃ䛧䛯䠊㻌

ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ䛿䠈㯤ἙἈ✚ᖹཎᆅᇦ༡㒊ᆅ༊䛻䛚䛔䛶䛿ୣ㝠ᆅᇦ䠈䜽䝤䝏◁

₍ᆅᇦ䛛䜙䛾ᾰ㣴䠈໭㒊ᆅ༊䛻䛚䛔䛶䛿㯤Ἑ䛛䜙䛾ᾰ㣴䛜⪃䛘䜙䜜䛶䛔䜛䛜䠈2013 ᖺ 䛾ㄪᰝ⤖ᯝ䛛䜙䠈䜾䝤䝏◁₍᪉㠃䛛䜙䛾ᾰ㣴㔞䛜ῶᑡ䛧䠈㯤Ἑ䛛䜙䛾ᾐ㏱䛜ቑຍ䛧䛶 䛔䜛䛣䛸䛜᫂䜙䛛䛸䛺䛳䛯䠊䜾䝤䝏◁₍᪉㠃䛛䜙䛾ᾰ㣴㔞ῶᑡ䛾せᅉ䛸䛧䛶䛿ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ ༡㒊䛻ᘓタ䛥䜜䛯ᕤሙ䛾ᙳ㡪䛜኱䛝䛔䛸᝿ᐃ䛥䜜䠈㯤Ἑ䛛䜙䛾ᾐ㏱㔞ቑ኱䛿䠈ᆅᇦ䛾 ᆅୗỈ฼⏝㔞䛾ቑ኱䛜୺䛺⌮⏤䛷䛒䜚䠈䛣䛾ᆅୗỈၥ㢟䛜䛣䛾ᆅᇦ䛻䛸䛹䜎䜙䛪䠈㯤Ἑ ὶᇦ඲య䛻ᑐ䛧䛶䜒ᙳ㡪䜢ᣢ䛴䛣䛸䛜♧၀䛥䜜䜛䠊

௒ᚋ䜒ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䛷୙ᅽᆅୗỈ฼⏝䜢⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䛿䠈ᥭỈ䛾ᢚไ䛜ᚲせ䛷䛒䜚䠈 ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ䠈㎰ᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾䛔䛪䜜䛻ᑐ䛧䛶䜒⾜ᨻ䛒䜛䛔䛿Ỉ฼⤌ྜ䛾䜘䛖䛺⤌⧊䛻䜘䜛ᥭ Ỉ⟶⌮䛜⫢せ䛷䛒䜛䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䠊௒ᅇ䛾䝕䞊䝍䛿㝈䜙䜜䛯ᮇ㛫䠈㝈䜙䜜䛯ᆅⅬ䛾䜒䛾 䛾䜏䛷䛒䜚䠈ቸ៞Ἑὶᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ஦᝟䛾᩿∦䜢䛸䜙䛘䛯䛰䛡䛻㐣䛞䛺䛔䠊ᆅୗỈῶᑡ 䛾⣙ 5 ๭䜢ㄝ᫂䛩䜛㝆㞵䛻䛴䛔䛶䛥䛘ண ᅔ㞴䛷䛒䜛䛣䛸䜢㚷䜏䛶䜒䠈௒ᚋ䛾⥅⥆䛧䛯 ほ 䛜䛝䜟䜑䛶㔜せ䛷䛒䜛䛸ᛮ䜟䜜䜛䠊

㻌

ᘬ⏝ᩥ⊩

[1] ᕮ㐩᪥ኵ䡡ኳ㇂Ꮥኵ䡡ᖹᯇ◊䡡኱す೺ኵ䠄2012䠅: ஝⇱ᆅᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᆅୗỈ౫Ꮡ

㎰∾ᆅᖏ䛾Ỉ㈨※≧ἣ-ෆⵚྂ㐩ᢼ≉᪝䛾஦౛-᪥ᮏ㞵Ỉ㈨※໬䝅䝇䝔䝮Ꮫ఍

ㄅ䠈19(1)䠈pp.11-18.

[2] Brown, L. R. (2003): ᣢ⥆୙ྍ⬟䛺Ỉ౑⏝䛷㣗ᩱ䝞䝤䝹䛜ୡ⏺䛷㉳䛣䛳䛶䛔䜛䠈

Eco-Economy-Update2003-2,http://worldwatch-japan.org/NEWS/ecoeconomyupd ate2003-2.html, 䠄᭱⤊☜ㄆ᪥: 2014/10/17䠅䠊

[3] ୍䝜℩ಇ᫂䞉኱ᆤᅜ㡰䞉⋤໅Ꮫ䞉ᙇ♽㝣䞉⾰➟⪽ྐ (2005): 㯤Ἑὶᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛

4.6䜎䛸䜑 63

ᆅୗỈ฼⏝䛾⌧≧ᢕᥱ䛸ᑗ᮶ண ᡭἲ䛾㛤Ⓨ䠈䛄୰ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛⎔ቃၥ㢟䛾⌧

≧䛅䠈ឡ▱኱Ꮫᅜ㝿୰ᅜᏛ◊✲䝉䞁䝍䞊䠈pp.259-266.

[4] ▼஭Ṋᨻ (2008): 㯤Ἑὶᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ◊✲䠈ᆅᏛ㞧ㄅ䠈117(3), pp.661-667.

[5] ᑠᯘ⩏ᩥ(2012): ༡Ỉ໭ㄪᨻ⟇䛾ㄢ㢟䛸ᒎᮃ, ⚄ᡞዪᏊ኱ᏛᩥᏛ㒊⣖せ, 45, pp.47-58.

[6] ㏆⸨᫛ᙪ䞉⏣୰㻌 ṇ䞉၈㻌 ᖖ※䞉బ಴ಖኵ䞉ᔱ⏣㻌 ⣧䞉Ⱚ㔝༤ᩥ䞉๽㻌 ᫀ᫂䞉ᙇ㻌 ୓

㌷䞉⬌㻌 ᫓຾䞉๽㻌 ᑠி䞉㝞㻌 ᘓ⪀䞉ỿ㻌 ᙪಇ (2001): ୰ᅜ⳹໭ᖹཎ䛾Ỉၥ㢟䠊 Ỉᩥ䞉Ỉ㈨※Ꮫ఍ㄅ䚸10䚸187-192.

[7] ኱ᵳᜤ୍䞉኱ୖ༤ᇶ (1998)䠖஝⇱ᆅ䛾Ẽೃ䛸㎰ᴗ⏕⏘⎔ቃ䠈Ỉᩥ䞉Ỉ㈨※Ꮫ఍

ㄅ䠈11(5)䠈pp.515-524䠊

[8] ᒸᮏಙᗈ䞉⯆ὠṇಙ䞉ᒸᑎᬛ኱ (2010)䠖୰ᅜ䛾Ỉၥ㢟䛿ゎỴྍ⬟䛛䠛䠉⏘ᴗ 㐃㛵䝰䝕䝹䛛䜙䛾䜰䝥䝻䞊䝏䠉䠈ᮾ䜰䝆䜰䛾どⅬ䠈3᭶ྕ䠈pp.41-52䠊

[9] ⋢⏕ᚿ㑻䞉ᮧᒸὒᩥ䞉▼஭Ṋᨻ(2007): Ἑ໭ᖹ㔝䛾ᆅୗỈ఩పୗ䠈ᆅ㉁䝙䝳䞊 䝇䠈630, pp.6-21䠊

[10] UNEP (1992): World Atlas of Desertification, Edward Arnold, London, pp.2-5.

[11] Xu, Z. X., Takeuchi, K., Ishidaira, H. and Zhang, X. W. (2002): Sustainable Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Ap-proach, Water Resources Management 16, pp.239-261.

Present and predictive states of water resources at groundwater-dependent agricultural and pastoral zone

-A case study at Dalad, Inner Mongolia-

Abstract: Groundwater resources at Dalad, Inner Mongolia were investigated by groundwater metering in 2013 as supplementary investigation during 2002-2006. Since Dalad is located in the middle reach area of the Yellow River basin and classified as arid or semi-arid area with less than 360mm precipitation and more than 2,200mm potential evaporation, the river water is not sufficiently supplied to the area and therefore, irrigation and industrial waters inevitably depend on groundwater resources. As a result of the in-vestigation, groundwater levels at almost of all the observation wells have descended re-markably since 2005 and especially the decreases in the southern part of the objective ar-ea are severe by a range of 0.8-5.3m. The groundwater amount in the southern part in 2013 is roughly estimated to be 2.91×10⁷m³, which proves a distinct downward trend.

According to the autoregressive-like forecasts, including the Holt-Winters method, the unconfined groundwater in the southern part would be unavailable in the middle of 2030’s. The groundwater amount of the objective area is also decreasing severely and the increase in irrigation and industrial waters must be its potential reasons, except the de-crease in the precipitation during 2005-2013. The change of the groundwater usage and flows might decrease the discharge of the Yellow River through the groundwater seepage and it is not only a water resources problem in this area, but also in the basin scale.

Therefore, the groundwater management in this area is a pressing issue and should be done by local government or some water-utilization association against both irrigation water and industry water users. The water resources are inherently including uncertainty, so continuing observation is essential to maintain the water resources at Dalad.

Keywords: Groundwater management, Arid-semiarid area, Water resources, Irrigation and industrial waters, Forecast of groundwater amount, Crop, Inner Mongolia

㻌 㻌 㻌

Chapter 5 ^㻌

⤖㻌 ㄽ㻌

㻌

5.1 㻌 㯤Ἑᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ㈨※䛾ぢ㏻䛧㻌 㻌

㯤Ἑὶᇦ䛷䛒䜛ᑐ㇟ᆅ䛾Ᏻᐃ䛧䛯Ⴀ㎰䛻䛿㻘ᆅୗỈ䛜ᚲせ୙ྍḞ䛷䛒䜛㻚ᮏ◊✲䛷䛿㻘 㯤Ἑ䛾Ỉ㈨※ಖ඲䜢๓ᥦ䛸䛧䛶㻘ᣢ⥆ⓗ䛺Ỉ㈨※฼⏝䜈䛾㊊䛜䛛䜚䛸䛺䜛䜉䛟㻘ᆅୗỈ

ືែ䜔୙ᅽᆅୗỈ㔞䛾ᢕᥱ㻘ᑗ᮶ⓗ䛺Ỉ㈨※ືྥ䛾ண 㻘ᆅୗỈ฼⏝䛸㯤ἙᘬỈ䛸䛾 ᅉᯝ㛵ಀ㻘㎰ᆅศᕸ≧ἣ䜢⾜䛳䛯㻚ෆⵚྂ⮬἞༊㐩ᢼ≉᪝䛾ቸ៞Ἑὶᇦ䛻䛚䛔䛶㎰ᴗ

ⓗỈ฼⏝䛾䛯䜑䛻Ữ䜏ୖ䛢䛶䛔䜛ᆅୗỈ䛿ከ䛟㻘䜎䛯䚸㎰ᴗ䛿ᆅୗỈ฼⏝ᆅᇦ䛻㞟୰

䛧䛶䛔䜛㻚℺₅ᮇ䛻䛚䛡䜛᭱㧗Ỉ఩䛛䜙㠀℺₅ᮇ䛻䛚䛡䜛᭱పỈ఩䜈䛾ⴠᕪ䛿㻘ᖺ䚻ቑ ຍ䛧䛶䛔䜛㻚䛣䜜䛿㻘℺₅Ỉ㔞䛜ቑຍഴྥ䛻䛒䜛䛣䛸䜢♧䛧䛶䛔䜛㻚ᚑ᮶䛾Ⴀ㎰䜢⥅⥆䛩䜛 䛺䜙䜀䚸ᆅୗỈ䛾฼⏝䛿௒ᚋ䜒ቑຍ䛩䜛䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛㻚㻌

2001㻌 ᖺ䛛䜙 2006㻌 ᖺ䠈䛥䜙䛻 2013 ᖺᗘ䛻䛛䛡䛶ෆⵚྂ⮬἞༊㐩ᢼ≉᪝䛾ቸ៞Ἑ

ὶᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᆅୗỈ䛾⌧≧䛸฼⏝䜢ㄪᰝ䛧䛶䛝䛯䠊䛭䛾⤖ᯝ䠈༡㒊༊ᇦෆ䛾ᆅୗỈ䛿䚸 㻞㻜㻜㻞 ᖺ䛛䜙 㻞㻜㻜㻠 ᖺ䛾䜘䛖䛺㏻ᖖ䛾㝆㞵⎔ቃ䛾ሙྜ䚸ᆅୗỈ㔞䛿℺₅ᮇ䛻ῶᑡ䛧䚸㠀

℺₅ᮇ䛻ཎ≧ᅇ᚟䛩䜛䝃䜲䜽䝹䛜䛒䜛㻚䛧䛛䛧㻘㻞㻜㻜㻡 ᖺ䛾䜘䛖䛻ᑡ㞵䛾ሙྜ㻘ཎ≧ᅇ᚟䛜 ᅔ㞴䛺≧ἣ䛻㝗䜛஦䛜ุ᫂䛧䛯㻚䛣䜜䛿㻘㻞㻜㻜㻢 ᖺ䛾Ỉ఩䛜ᅇ᚟䛧䛶䛔䛺䛔䛣䛸䛛䜙䜒᫂䜙 䛛䛷䛒䜛㻚䛥䜙䛻㻚2013 ᖺ䛾㏣ຍㄪᰝ⤖ᯝ䜘䜚㻘ㄪᰝᑐ㇟ᆅ༊䛾ᆅୗỈ఩䛿᫂☜䛻పୗ

ഴྥ䜢♧䛧䛶䛚䜚㻘㻞㻜㻜㻡 ᖺ䛻✌ື䜢㛤ጞ䛧䛯〇⸆ᕤሙୗὶ䛾ᆅୗỈὶືᖏ䛷䛿㻘ᕤሙ 䛾✌ື䛸䜋䜌ྠ᫬䛻 㻱㻯 ್䛾ୖ᪼䛜☜ㄆ䛥䜜䛯㻚௒ᚋ䛿䜎䛩䜎䛩ᆅୗỈ฼⏝䛻䛚䛡䜛 ᕤᴗศ㔝䛸䛾➇ྜ䛜⃭໬䛩䜛䛸ண᝿䛥䜜㻘Ỉ䛾㔞䛸㉁䛾୧㠃䛻䜟䛯䜛┘ど䛜ᚲせ䛸䛺䜝 䛖㻚୙ᅽᆅୗỈ㔞䜢⟬ฟ䛧䛯䛣䛸䛛䜙㻘ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᆅୗỈ㈿Ꮡ㔞䛾⤒ᖺⓗ䛺ኚ໬

䛜᫂䜙䛛䛸䛺䛳䛯㻚ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ䛿䠈㯤ἙἈ✚ᖹཎᆅᇦ༡㒊ᆅ༊䛻䛚䛔䛶䛿ୣ㝠ᆅᇦ䠈 䜽䝤䝏◁₍ᆅᇦ䛛䜙䛾ᾰ㣴䠈໭㒊ᆅ༊䛻䛚䛔䛶䛿㯤Ἑ䛛䜙䛾ᾰ㣴䛜⪃䛘䜙䜜䠈ほ ஭ 䛷ᅖ䜎䜜䛯㡿ᇦ䜢ᑐ㇟䛻䛧䛯ሙྜ䠈ᖺ㛫⣙ 6.61×10⁵m³䛾ᾰ㣴Ỉ㔞䛻䛺䜛䛣䛸䛜♧၀䛥 䜜䛯䠊℺₅ᮇ䛷䛿㻘㯤Ἑ༡㒊䛾㎰ᴗᆅᇦ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᆅୗỈ఩䛜䛥䜙䛻పୗ䛧㻘⾪✺㠃䛜༡

ୗ䛩䜛䛾䛷㻘㯤Ἑ䛛䜙䛾ᾐ㏱Ỉ㔞䛜䛥䜙䛻ቑຍ䛩䜛䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛㻚㡿ᇦ඲య䛸䛧䛶䛿ᮾഃ

䜈䛾ὶฟ䛜኱䛝䛟䠈཰ᨭ䛿㈇䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䛜䠈䛣䛾ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ฼⏝䛾≧ἣ䛜䜾䝥䝏◁

₍ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈὶື䛚䜘䜃㯤Ἑ䛛䜙䛾ᾐ㏱ὶ䛻኱䛝䛺ᙳ㡪䜢୚䛘䛶䛔䜛䜒䛾䛸⪃䛘䜙

䜜䜛䠊㻌

⤫ィ䝋䝣䝖R(ver.3.11)䜢⏝䛔䛶Holt-Wintersἲ䛻䜘䜛▷ᮇᆅୗỈ㔞ண 䜢⾜䛳䛯㻘ᑗ᮶

ⓗ䛻䜒ᆅୗỈ㔞䛿㻘1 ᖺ䛷୍ᐃ䛾࿘ᮇᛶ䜢ᣢ䛱䛺䛜䜙ῶᑡ䛩䜛ഴྥ䛜䛒䜛䛣䛸䛜♧䛥䜜 䛯㻚䛭䛾⤖ᯝ䠈ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䠈≉䛻༡㒊䛾୙ᅽᆅୗỈ䛿᫂☜䛺ῶᑡഴྥ䛻䛒䜚䠈䛣䛾ഴྥ䛜 ኚ䜟䜙䛺䛡䜜䜀䠈2020ᖺ௦୰ᚋ༙䛻䛿2003ᖺᇶ‽䛾10%䜢ษ䜛䛣䛸䠈䛩䛺䜟䛱୙ᅽᆅ

ୗỈ䛜฼⏝ᅔ㞴䛻䛺䜛䛣䛸䛜ண᝿䛥䜜䜛䠊୙ᅽᆅୗỈ䛾ῶᑡ䛾୺䛺せᅉ䛸䛧䛶䛿䠈㎰ᆅ 䛾ቑ኱䠈ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾ቑ኱䠈㝆Ỉ㔞䛾ῶᑡ䛜⪃䛘䜙䜜䛯䠊2005 ᖺ5᭶䛸 2013ᖺ 5᭶䛾 䝕䞊䝍䜢ᇶ䛻⟬ฟ䛧䛯ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈῶᑡ㔞䜢⪃䛘䛯ሙྜ䠈㎰ᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾ᙳ㡪䛜⣙2

๭䠈㝆Ỉ㔞䛾ῶᑡ䛾ᙳ㡪䛜⣙5๭䛷䛒䜚䠈ṧ䜚䛾䛛䛺䜚䛾㒊ศ䛜ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾ᙳ㡪䛷䛒䜛 䛸᥎ᐃ䛧䛯䠊ᮏᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䛾ᣢ⥆ⓗ䛺㎰ᴗ䜢⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䛿㻘௒ᚋ䛾ᆅୗỈ㔞䛾ኚື

䜢ὀど䛧䛶䛔䛟䛣䛸䛿୙ྍḞ䛷䛒䜚䚸⥅⥆䛧䛯ㄪᰝ䛜ᚲせ䛷䛒䜛㻚㻌 㻌 㻌

௒ᚋ䛾◊✲ᒎ㛤㻌 㻌

㻌 ◊✲ᑐ㇟䛻䛚䛔䛶㻘௒ᚋ䜒ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ䛷୙ᅽᆅୗỈ฼⏝䜢⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛻䛿䠈ᥭỈ䛾 ᢚไ䛜ᚲせ䛷䛒䜚䠈ᕤᴗ⏝Ỉ䠈㎰ᴗ⏝Ỉ䛾䛔䛪䜜䛻ᑐ䛧䛶䜒⾜ᨻ䛒䜛䛔䛿Ỉ฼⤌ྜ䛾 䜘䛖䛺⤌⧊䛻䜘䜛ᥭỈ⟶⌮䛜⫢せ䛷䛒䜛䛸⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䠊௒ᅇ䛾䝕䞊䝍䛿㝈䜙䜜䛯ᮇ㛫䠈 㝈䜙䜜䛯ᆅⅬ䛾䜒䛾䛾䜏䛷䛒䜚䠈ቸ៞Ἑὶᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ஦᝟䛾᩿∦䜢䛸䜙䛘䛯䛰䛡䛻㐣 䛞䛺䛔䠊ᆅୗỈῶᑡ䛾⣙ 㻡 ๭䜢ㄝ᫂䛩䜛㝆㞵䛻䛴䛔䛶䛥䛘ண ᅔ㞴䛷䛒䜛䛣䛸䜢㚷䜏䛶 䜒䠈௒ᚋ䛾⥅⥆䛧䛯ほ 䛜䛝䜟䜑䛶㔜せ䛷䛒䜛䛸ᛮ䜟䜜䜛䠊௒ᚋ䜒ᖹᯇඛ⏕䛸୍⥴䛻◊

✲ᑐ㇟ᆅྵ䜑䛶䜒䛳䛸ᗈ䛔ᆅᇦ䜢㑅ᐃ䛧㻘⥅⥆䛧䛶ᆅୗỈ䛾ほ 䜢⾜䛔䠈䛭䜜䜙䛾䝕䞊 䝍䜢ᇶ䛻䜘䜚ಙ㢗ᛶ䛾䛒䜛ホ౯䜢⾜䛖ணᐃ䛷䛒䜛䠊䜎䛯䠈ᅵᆅ฼⏝䜔⫧ᩱ⁐⬺䛺䛹䛾䝕 䞊䝍䜢ຍ䛘䠈⥲ྜⓗ䛻䛣䛾ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ䛻䛴䛔䛶᳨ウ䜢ຍ䛘䛶䛔䛝䛯䛔䠊ᑐ㇟ᆅ䛿஝

⇱ᆅᖏ䛷⵨Ⓨ㔞䛜኱䛝䛟㻘␇㛫℺₅䛾䛯䜑ᦆኻỈ㔞䛜ከ䛟㻘௒ᚋ䛿℺₅᫬㛫䛾▷⦰ཬ 䜃༢఩℺₅Ỉ㔞䛾⠇ῶ➼䜢᳨ウ䛩䜛䛜䛒䜛㻚䜎䛯ᅵỈ㊰䛛䜙䝡䝙䞊䝹䝩䞊䝇䜈䛾㌿᥮㻘 ᆅ⾲℺₅䛛䜙䝇䝥䝸䞁䜽䝷䞊℺₅䜈䛾㌿᥮㻘ಖỈᛶ䛾ྥୖ䛺䛹䜢┠ⓗ䛸䛧䛯ᅵተᨵⰋ➼

䜢⾜䛖ᚲせ䛜䛒䜛㻚㻌

㻌 ㄪᰝ୰䛻㎰Ẹ䜈⠇Ỉព㆑䛻䛴䛔䛶㉁ၥ䛧䛯䛸䛣䜝㻘ᆅୗỈ䛿Ọஂⓗ䛻Ꮡᅾ䛩䜛䛸䛔 䛳䛯㏉⟅䛷䛒䛳䛯㻚䜎䛪䛿㻘⾜ᨻഃ䛜✚ᴟⓗ䛻㎰Ẹ䛾ᆅୗỈ䛻ᑐ䛩䜛ᩍ⫱䜢⾜䛖ᚲせ䛜 䛒䜛㻚䛥䜙䛻᱂ᇵ䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛స≀䜒ΰᅾ䛧䛶䛔䜛㻚ẚ㍑ⓗ⪏ሷᛶ䛾㧗䛔᳜≀䛜᱂ᇵ䛥䜜䛶 䛔䜛䛜㻘᭱䜒⪏ሷᛶ䛾㧗䛔స≀䜢ୗὶᆅᇦ䛷㻘ప䛔స≀䜢ୖὶഃ䛷᱂ᇵ䜢䛩䜛䛣䛸䛷ᣢ

⥆ⓗ䛺㎰ᴗ䜈䛸⧅䛜䜛䛸⪃䛘䜛㻚ᆅୗỈ฼⏝䛻䛿㻘ẚ㍑ⓗᆅୗỈ䛜㇏ᐩ䛷㻘ᅇ᚟ຊ䜒㧗 䛔ୖὶᆅᇦ䜔ᮾ㒊䛾ᆅᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ䜢฼⏝䛩䜛䛺䛹㻘䝞䝷䞁䝇䛾Ⰻ䛔฼⏝䜢䛩䜛䜉䛝䛷 䛒䜛㻚௒ᚋ䜒Ỉ฼⏝ィ⏬䛾ᵓ⠏㻘℺₅᪉ἲ䛾ᨵၿ䛺䛹ᣢ⥆ⓗỈ฼⏝䜈䛾ᑗ᮶ィ⏬䜢᳨

ウ䛩䜛ᚲせ䛜䛒䜛㻚䛣䛾ୖ䛷㻘⥲ྜⓗ䛻㯤Ἑὶᇦ䛾ᆅୗỈ䛻䛴䛔䛶᳨ウ䜢ຍ䛘䛶䛔䛝䛯 䛔䠊㻌

㻌 㻌

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