モンゴル国における最大の自然災害ゾドに関する研究

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Title

モンゴル国における最大の自然災害ゾドに関する研究( 本文

_{(Fulltext) )}

Author(s)

JIRIGALA

Report No.(Doctoral

Degree)

博士(農学) 甲第614号

Issue Date

2013-09-10

Type

博士論文

Version

ETD

URL

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12099/47825

※この資料の著作権は、各資料の著者・学協会・出版社等に帰属します。

(2)

ࡕ

ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆᦨᄢߩ

⥄ὼἴኂ࠱࠼ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⎇ⓥ

JIRIGALA

ጘ㒂ᄢቇ大学院ㅪวㄘቇ⎇ⓥ⑼

↢‛ⅣႺ⑼ቇ

（岐阜大学）

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ࡕ

ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆᦨᄢߩ

⥄ὼἴኂ࠱࠼ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⎇ⓥ

(4)

⋡

⋡ᰴ

Σ

. ᐨ⺰………...1

Τ

. ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠱࠼ⵍኂࠍᒁ߈⿠ߎߔ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩಽᨆߣ⹏ଔ….3

1. ⋡⊛………3 2. ࠱࠼ߩቯ⟵ߣ࠱࠼ߦࠃࠆⵍኂߩಽ㘃………...4 2.1 ࠱࠼ߩቯ⟵ߣ⊒↢ⷐ࿃……… ..4 2.2 ࠱࠼ⵍኂߩಽ㘃………5 3. ⺞ᩏ࿾ߩ᭎ⷐ………6 3.1 ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߩ᭎ⷐ………6 3.2 ᳇⽎ߩ㐳ᦼᄌേ․ᕈ………9 3.3 ኅ⇓ᢙߩ㐳ᦼᄌേ߅ࠃ߮࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢⁁ᴫ………..11 4. ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣኅ⇓ᢙᄌേߩ⋧㑐ಽᨆ………..14 4.1 ᳇୥ቇ⊛ⷐ࿃ߩᜰᮡ………..14 4.2 ᳇୥ᜰᢙߣ࠱࠼⊒↢ߣߩ㑐ଥ………..15 4.3 ᢣᱫ₸ߩቯ⟵………..18 4.4 ᳇୥ᜰᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ㑐ଥ………..21 4.5 ࠱࠼ⵍኂ⊒↢ߩᢣᱫ₸ߦࠃࠆᜰᮡൻ………..25 5. ߹ߣ߼………..27

Υ

. ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫߣ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩ㑐ଥ………28

1. ⋡⊛………28

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2. ኻ⽎࿾඙ߩ᭎ⷐ………30 2.1 ኻ⽎࿾඙ߩ࿾ℂ⊛᧦ઙ………...30 2.2 ኻ⽎࿾඙ߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙ………..32 3. ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ㐳ᦼᄌേ………..35 3.1 㚸㚭………..35 3.2 㚍………..36 3.3 ‐………..36 3.4 ⟠………..37 3.5 ጊ⟠………..37 3.6 ߹ߣ߼………..42 4. ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⋧㑐⸃ᨆ………..44 4.1 ੖⒳⇓ߏߣߩ⋧㑐⸃ᨆ……….44 4.2 ੖⒳⇓ߏߣߩ⚿ᨐߣ⠨ኤ……….44 4.2.1 㚸㚭………44 4.2.2 㚍………45 4.2.3 ‐………45 4.2.4 ⟠߅ࠃ߮ጊ⟠………46 4.2.5 ⋧㑐⸃ᨆߩ✚᜝………51 5. ߹ߣ߼……….52

Φ

. ࡕࡦࠧ࡞㜞ේߦ߅ߌࠆ࠱࠼ⵍኂߩ࿾ၞ․ᕈ………..54

1. ⋡⊛………..54 2. ታ⸽⋵ߩ᭎ⷐ………..57

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2.1 㜞ጊ㧘⍾Ṽᕈ⨲ේᏪ㧔ࡎࡉ࠻⋵㧕………..57 2.2 ᫪ᨋ,᫪ᨋ⨲ේᏪ㧔ࠕ࡞ࡂࡦࠟࠗ⋵㧕……….64 2.3 ᐔේᏪ㧔࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵㧕……….58 2.4 ⍾Ṽᕈ⨲ේ,⍾ṼᏪ㧔࠙ࡓ࠿ࠧࡆ⋵㧕………58 3. ᳇⽎᧦ઙ………61 3.1 ⸃ᨆߦ૶↪ߒߚ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲………61 3.2 ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩ௑ะ………61 3.3 ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩ⚻ᐕᄌൻ………64 4. ኅ⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩᄌേ………66 4.1 ኅ⇓✚㗡ᢙߩᄌേ………66 4.2 ⟠ߩ✚㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⚻ᐕᄌൻ………69 5. ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣኅ⇓ᢣᱫ₸ߩ㑐ଥ………74 5.1 ᢣᱫ₸ߣฦ᦬ߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣߩ⋧㑐⸃ᨆ………...74 5.2 ⸃ᨆ⚿ᨐ………74 㧢㧚 ߹ߣ߼……….84

Χ

. ✚᜝………...85

SUMMARY……….88

⻢ㄉ

………...92

ෳ⠨ᢥ₂………...94

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㧝

Σ㧚ᐨ⺰

ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ߣߪ,ޟㆆ’᳃ߢ޽ࠅࠕ࡞࠲ࠗ⺆ᣖߩ৻ߟߢ޽ࠆࡕࡦࠧ࡞⺆ࠍ૶↪ߔࠆ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ᣖ߇ዬ૑ߔࠆ,ࡕࡦࠧ࡞㜞ේ߅ࠃ߮ߘߩ๟ㄝࠍ฽߻࿾Ꮺߩ✚⒓ޠߢ޽ࠅ, ߘߩਛᔃߦ૏⟎ߔࠆߩ߇⃻࿷ߩࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢ޽ࠆ.ߎߎߢߪ,౒᦭ൻߐࠇߚⓨ㑆ߢ ߩߺᚑ┙ߒ߁ࠆ↢ᵴ᭽ᑼߢ޽ࠆㆆ’ߦࠃࠅ,࡙࡯࡜ࠪࠕᄢ㒽ߦᐢ߇ࠆੇ῎Ꮺߩ᧲ ┵ߦ૏⟎ߔࠆ㜞ේߦ߅޿ߡ,ᢙජᐕߦࠊߚࠅਥⷐߥ⚻ᷣᵴേߣߒߡߩ’⇓↢↥߇ ⛽ᜬߐࠇߡ߈ߚ. ৻⥸ߦㆆ’ߣߪ,ቄ▵⊛⒖േࠍᔅⷐߣߔࠆ’⇓ࠍᗧ๧ߒߡ޿ࠆ.ߔߥࠊߜ,↢᧪⊛ ߦ⒖േᕈࠍ᦭ߒߡ޿ࠆ੖⒳ߩኅ⇓㧔⟠,ጊ⟠,㚍,‐,㚸㚭㧕ࠍ⟲ࠇߏߣᚻ߽ߣߦ⛽ᜬ ߒߟߟ,ኅ⇓ߩ⒖േߦࠃࠅᄢ࿾ߦኻߔࠆ㓸Ⓧ⊛ߥᛩ⾗ࠍน⢻ߥ㒢ࠅዊߐߊߒߡ,ᬀ ↢߳ߩ⽶⩄ࠍ⥃ᯏᔕᄌߦടᷫߒಽᢔߐߖ,ⅣႺࠍ⛽ᜬߒߡ߈ߚ.ߎߩቄ▵⊛⒖േߪ, ᳓႐ߣ⨲ߩಽᏓ߇৻⥌ߒߥ޿ⓨ㑆ࠍ㜞ᐲߦ೑↪ߔࠆᭂ߼ߡวℂ⊛ߥᚻᲑߢ޽ߞߚ ߩߢ޽ࠆ. ߒ߆ߒ,⃻࿷ߩࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢߪ,20 ਎♿ᧃߩ᳃ਥൻߦ⛯ߊᏒ႐⚻ᷣൻ߳ߩ⒖ⴕㆊ ⒟ߢ,ߘࠇ߹ߢ␠ળਥ⟵ߦࠃߞߡ⛽ᜬߐࠇߡ߈ߚࠪࠬ࠹ࡓߩᄙߊ߇፣უߒߚ.ੱ߮ ߣߩ↢ᬺߢ޽ߞߚㆆ’߽଀ᄖߢߪߥߊ,⒖േࠍⷐߣߔࠆ’⇓ߩࠪࠬ࠹ࡓࠍౣ߮૞ ࠅ⋥ߔߎߣߦࠃࠅ,ࠃࠅ㜞ᰴߥ⵾ຠࠍ૞ࠆ↥ᬺ߳ߣォ឵ߔߴߊ᳞߼ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆߩ ߢ޽ࠆ. ߔߥࠊߜ,ⅣႺࠍ଻ోߒߥ߇ࠄ↥ᬺൻࠍᨐߚߔㆆ’ߩᣂߚߥ㆏ࠍᮨ⚝ߔࠆࠃ߁ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߪㄼࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆߩߢ޽ࠅ,ߘߩ႐วߩᦨᄢߩ⺖㗴߇,࠱࠼ߦ⴫⽎ߐࠇࠆ ⥄ὼἴኂ߳ߩ஻߃ࠍ⑼ቇ⊛ߦㅊ᳞ߒኻ╷ࠍ⏕┙ߔࠆߎߣߦ޽ࠆ.࠱࠼ߦࠃࠆኅ⇓

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㧞 ߩⵍኂߪᷓೞߢ޽ࠅ,ᱧผ⊛ߦ߽ᨎ᜼ߦ޿ߣ߹߇ߥ޿߇,ㄭᤨߢ߽ 2000 ᐕ߆ࠄߩ 3 ᐕ㑆ߢ967 ਁ㗡߇,2009㨪2010 ᐕߦߪ 800 ਁ㗡߇ᢣᱫߔࠆߣ޿߁↟ᄢߥᓇ㗀ࠍⵍߞ ߚ.߹ߐߦ,࠱࠼ἴኂࠍ޿߆ߦシᷫߐߖࠆ߆߇,ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩ዁᧪ࠍ᳿ቯߠߌࠆᭂ߼ ߡ㊀ⷐߥ⺖㗴ߣߒߡ┙ߜႧ߇ߞߡ޿ࠆߩߢ޽ࠆ. એ਄ߩⷰὐ߆ࠄ,ᧄ⺰ᢥߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠱࠼ⵍኂߩシᷫߦะߌߡขࠅ⚵ ߻ߴ߈✚ว⊛ኻ╷ࠍ⏕┙ߔࠆߚ߼ߦ,వߕߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩ᧲┵ߦ૏⟎ߔࠆ࠼࡞ࡁ ࠼⋵ࠍኻ⽎ߦ,࠱࠼ⵍኂࠍᒁ߈⿠ߎߔ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩಽᨆߣ⹏ଔࠍታᣉߒ,⛯޿ߡߎࠇ ࠍၮߦห⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ㧡⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫߣ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩ㑐ଥࠍಽᨆߒߚ.ߘߒߡ,ߎߩᚑᨐ ࠍࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ో૕ߢߩᬌ⸽ߦᓎ┙ߚߖࠆߎߣࠍ⋡ᜰߒ,㧠’⇓඙ߦ඙ಽߐࠇߚਛ ߆ࠄ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ࠍ฽߻㧠ታ⸽⋵ࠍㆬᛮߒ,ో⋵ߢߩਥⷐኅ⇓ߢ޽ࠆ⟠ࠍኻ⽎ߦᢣ ᱫ₸ߣ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍ⛔⸘⸃ᨆߒ,᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᄌേߦࠃࠆኅ⇓ⵍኂߩ⋧㆑ࠍ ࿾ၞ․ᕈ߆ࠄ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒࠃ߁ߣ⹜ߺߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ.

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㧟

Τ

. ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠱࠼ⵍኂࠍ

ᒁ߈⿠ߎߔ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩಽᨆߣ⹏ଔ

⋡⊛ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢ㗫❥ߦ⊒↢ߔࠆ⥄ὼἴኂߦࠟࡦ߿࠱࠼߇޽ࠆ㧚․ߦ࠱࠼ߪ㧘ㆆ’ ᳃߇ᚲ᦭ߔࠆኅ⇓ߦ↟ᄢߥⵍኂࠍ෸߷ߔߎߣ߇޽ࠅ㧘⚿ᨐߣߒߡㆆ’᳃ߩ⽺࿎߿ 㘫㙈ߦߟߥ߇ࠆߎߣ߇ᄙ޿㧚࠱࠼ߪ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ౝߩ⇣ߥࠆ႐ᚲߢᲤᐕߩࠃ߁ߦ ⊒↢ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘หߓ႐ᚲߢߩ⊒↢㗫ᐲߪ2㨪10 ᐕߦ 1 ࿁ߣ㧘࿾ၞߦࠃߞߡᄢ߈

ߊ⇣ߥࠆ㧔Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001㧕㧚߹ߚ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ోၞߢ⊒↢ߔࠆᄢ

ⷙᮨߥ࠱࠼߽޽ࠅ㧘ߎࠇ߹ߢߦ1944 ᐕ㧘1954 ᐕ㧘1956 ᐕ㧘1967 ᐕ㧘1976 ᐕ㧘1993 ᐕ㧘1996 ᐕߩฦ౻߆ࠄᤐߦ߆ߌߡ⊒↢ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧔Ⴎ⷗㧘2001㧕㧚ߐࠄߦ㧘ㄭᐕߩ ࿾⃿ⷙᮨߩ᷷ᥦൻߦࠃࠅ㧘ᭂၞઃㄭߢߪ᳇᷷ߩ㗼⪺ߥ਄᣹߇ႎ๔ߐࠇߡ߅ࠅ 㧔IPCC㧘2007㧕㧘ታ㓙ߦࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢ߽㗼⪺ߥ᷷ᥦൻߩ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧔Yatagai and Yasunari, 1994㧕㧚ߘࠇߦߣ߽ߥ޿㧘࠱࠼ߩᕈ⾰߿ᒝᐲ߇ᄌൻߒ㧘ኅ⇓ⵍኂ߽ᷓೞൻ ߔࠆ௑ะߦ޽ࠆߎߣ߇ᜰ៰ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔Ḋ㧘2003㧕㧚ߚߣ߃߫㧘1999 ᐕ߆ࠄߪ㧘3 ᐕㅪ⛯ߢ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇⊒↢ߒ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ోၞߦ߅޿ߡ967 ਁ㗡ߩኅ⇓߇ᢣᱫߒ㧘46㧑 ߩ’⇓᳃߇ⵍኂࠍฃߌߡ޿ࠆ㧔የፒ㧘2006㧕㧚߹ߚ㧘2009㨪10 ᐕߩ࠱࠼ߦࠃߞߡ㧘 ߅ࠃߘ3 ഀߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆ 800 ਁ㗡એ਄ߩኅ⇓ࠍᄬߞߡ޿ࠆ㧔የፒ㧘2011㧕㧚 ߒ߆ߒ㧘ἴኂ৻⥸ߦ߽⸒߃ࠆࠃ߁ߦ㧘࠱࠼ߪනߥࠆ⥄ὼἴኂߢߪߥߊ㧘᳇⽎᧦ ઙߣ޿߁⥄ὼⷐ࿃ߣ㧘᡽╷㧘␠ળ೙ᐲ㧘⚻ᷣ㧘⍾Ṽൻߥߤߩੱὑⷐ࿃ߣ߇ⶄวߒ ߡ⊒↢ߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠅ㧘⊒↢ߩࡊࡠ࠮ࠬߪන⚐ߢߪߥߊ㧔Ḋ㧘2004㧕㧘ᧂߛಽᨆ߇ ਇචಽߢ޽ࠆߩ߇⃻⁁ߢ޽ࠆ㧚࠱࠼ⵍኂシᷫߩߚ߼ߩㆡಾߥኻಣᴺࠍߣࠆߚ߼ߦ

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㧠 ߪ㧘෺ᣇߩⷐ࿃ߩᓇ㗀ࠍ᣿⏕ߦߔࠆߎߣ߇ᔅⷐਇนᰳߢ޽ࠆ㧚ߘߎߢ㧘ᧄ⎇ⓥߢ ߪ㧘ੱὑⷐ࿃ߣ⥄ὼⷐ࿃ߣࠍ඙೎ߔࠆߎߣࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߡ㧘ਥߣߒߡ᳇⽎᧦ઙ߇ⷐ ࿃ߣߥߞߡ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇⊒↢ߔࠆ᧦ઙࠍቯ㊂⊛ߦ⹏ଔߔࠆߎߣࠍ⹜ߺߚ㧚 ࠱࠼ߩቯ⟵ߣ࠱࠼ߦࠃࠆⵍኂߩಽ㘃 ࠱࠼ߩቯ⟵ߣ⊒↢ⷐ࿃ ޟ࠱࠼ޠߪㆆ’᳃ߦࠃߞߡ૶ࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆᣣᏱ↪⺆ߢ޽ࠅ㧘ฎߊߪ♿ర೨72 ᐕߦ

߹ߢߐ߆ߩ߷ࠆ㧔Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001㧕㧚⃻࿷߽㧘ㆆ’᳃⥄りߪ㧘ޟ౻ ᤐቄߦ’⨲߿㘶↪᳓ߩᰳਲߩߚ߼㧘ኅ⇓߇∳ߖᄢ㊂ߦᱫ੢ߔࠆߦ⥋ࠆ⥄ὼ᧦ઙޠ

ߦኻߒߡ㧘ޟ࠱࠼ޠߣ޿߁↪⺆ࠍ↪޿ߡ޿ࠆ㧔Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001㧕㧚

৻ᣇ㧘ࠊ߇࿖ߩᄙߊߩᢥ₂ߩਛߢߪޟ࠱࠼ޠߪޟ㔐ኂޠ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞㧘2005㧕޽ࠆ ޿ߪޟኙ㔐ኂޠ㧔የፒ㧘2011㧕ߥߤߣ⸶ߐࠇ㧘౻ᤐቄߩഠᖡߥ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦࠃߞߡኅ ⇓߇ᄢ㊂ߦᢣᱫߔࠆߎߣࠍᜰߔ㧚ߎߩࠃ߁ߦ㧘ޟ࠱࠼ޠߦኻߔࠆ⛔৻ߒߚቯ⟵ߪߥ ޿߇㧘ᭂ┵ߥ⥄ὼ᧦ઙߦࠃࠆኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫ⥄૕ࠍᜰߔ႐วߣ㧘ⵍኂࠍᒁ߈⿠ߎߔ⥄ ὼ᧦ઙߩߺࠍᜰߔ႐วߣߦ඙ಽߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆ㧔Ⴎ⷗㧘2001㧕㧚 ౻ቄߩᄙ㔐߿ૐ᷷ߣ޿ߞߚ⥄ὼ᧦ઙߪ࠱࠼ߩ㊀ⷐߥ⊒↢ⷐ࿃ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ߇㧘 ᄙ㔐߿ૐ᷷ߦⷅࠊࠇߚ࿾ၞ߆ࠄኅ⇓ࠍㆱ㔍ߐߖࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠇ߫࠱࠼ߪ⊒↢ߒߥ ޿㧚ߒߚ߇ߞߡ㧘ߚߣ߃౻ቄߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙ߇ᖡߊߡ߽㧘ኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫᢙ߇Ⴧടߔࠆߣ ߪ㒢ࠄߥ޿㧚߹ߚ㧘ኅ⇓ߩ⒳㘃ߦࠃߞߡ߽⒖േ߿ណ㘩⢻ജ߇⇣ߥࠆߚ߼㧘ኅ⇓ߏ ߣߦ࠱࠼ⵍኂߩ⒟ᐲ߇⇣ߥࠆߎߣ੍߽ᗐߐࠇࠆ㧚ઁᣇ㧘⨲ේߩᬀ↢ᚑ㐳㊂߿᳇⽎ ⁁ᴫࠍൊ᩺ߒ㧘ኅ⇓㗡ᢙ߿ኅ⇓᭴ᚑࠍੱὑ⊛ߦࠦࡦ࠻ࡠ࡯࡞ߔࠆߥߤߒߡ㧘࠱࠼ ⵍኂࠍⓍᭂ⊛ߦᦨዊൻߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ␠ળ⊛ኻᔕ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚ߎ߁޿ߞߚㆆ’᳃ߩ ⚻㛎⍮ߪޟㆆ’⍮ޠ㧔◉↰㧘2007㧕ߣ߽⸒ࠊࠇ㧘⨲ේⅣႺߩ଻ోߦነਈߒߡ߈ߚߎ

(11)

㧡 ߣ߽ᜰ៰ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߟ߹ࠅ㧘᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᄌേ߆ࠄ৻ᣇ⊛ߦᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆࠊߌߢ ߪߥߊ㧘᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᓇ㗀ࠍ✭๺ߔࠆࠃ߁ߦㆆ’⍮ߪ⊒㆐ߒߡ߈ߚ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘ㆆ’ ᳃ߦࠃࠆ␠ળ⊛ኻᔕߩ㒢⇇ࠍ⿥߃ࠆࠃ߁ߥ੐ᘒ߇⊒↢ߒߚߣ߈ߦ㧘࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߔ ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚 ࠱࠼ⵍኂߩಽ㘃 ೨ㅀߩࠃ߁ߦ㧘౻ቄߩኅ⇓㘺⢒ߦචಽߥ㙄⾗Ḯࠍ⏕଻ߢ߈ߥ޿ߎߣ߇ኅ⇓ᢣᱫ ߩ⋥ធⷐ࿃ߢ޽ࠆ㧚ߎߩ੐ᘒ߇⊒↢ߔࠆߩߪ㧘 (γ) ’⨲ߩਇ⿷ (δ) ’⨲߇޽ߞߡ߽ᱜᏱߦ೑↪ߢ߈ߥ޿ ߩߤߜࠄ߆㧘޽ࠆ޿ߪ෺ᣇ߇ⶄวߒߡ⊒↢ߔࠆߣ߈ߢ޽ࠆ㧚ߎߩ੐ᘒ߇⊒↢ߔࠆ ⷐ࿃ߦᔕߓ㧘࠱࠼ⵍኂߦߪએਅߦ␜ߔ 7 ߟߩ⇣ߥࠆ๭⒓߇޽ߡࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚(γ) ߩⷐ࿃ߦኻߒߡߪᰴߩ2 ⒳ߩ๭⒓߇޽ࠆ㧚 Ԙ ޟࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧦ᄐቄߦᐓኂ㧔ࠟࡦ㧕߇⊒↢ߒ⨲ේߩ’⨲ᚑ㐳߇ᖡߊߥࠅ㧘 ’⨲߇ᣧߊਇ⿷ߒ㧘౻ᤐቄߦ’⇓߇㙈ᱫߔࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧔ዊ ᴛ㧘1995㧕㧚 ԙ ޟ࠻࡯࡜ࠗࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔かߩἴኂ㧕㧦’⨲߇ᱜᏱߦᚑ㐳ߒߡ߽㧘ઁ࿾ၞ߆ࠄ ߩኅ⇓ߩ⒖౉ߦࠃࠆㆊ᡼’߇ේ࿃ߢ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧚ኅ⇓ߩかߢ⨲ේ߇⨹ࠄ ߐࠇࠆߎߣ߆ࠄߎߩࠃ߁ߦ๭߫ࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔ዊችጊ㧘2005㧕㧚 ᰴߦ㧘(δ)ߩⷐ࿃ߦኻߒߡ 5 ⒳ߩ๭⒓߇޽ࠆ㧚 Ԛ ޟ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔⊕޿ἴኂ㧕㧦ᄙ㔐ߦࠃࠅኅ⇓߇ណ㘩࿎㔍ߣߥࠆߎߣߢ ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧚Ⓧ㔐ߦࠃࠅ৻㕙߇⊕ߊߥࠆߎߣ߆ࠄߎߩࠃ߁ߦ๭߫ࠇࠆ㧚

(12)

㧢 ԛ ޟࠪ࡝ࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔ࠟ࡜ࠬἴኂ㧕㧦ቄ▵ߪߕࠇߩⲢ㔐ߣౣಓ⚿ߥߤߦࠃࠅ㧘 ’⨲߇᳖ߩ⭯޿ጀߦⷒࠊࠇߡኅ⇓߇ណ㘩ߢ߈ߥߊߥࠅ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧚ಓ⚿ ߩ⎬ߐࠍ⴫⃻ߒߡޟ࠹ࠖࡓ࡞㨯࠱࠼ޠ㧔㋕ἴኂ㧕ߣ߽޿߁㧔ዊችጊ㧘2005㧕㧚 Ԝ ޟࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ㨯࠱࠼ޠ㧔ኙ޿ἴኂ㧕㧦ᭂᐲߦኙ಄ߥᣣ߇㐳ᦼ⛮⛯ߔࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧔ዊችጊ㧘2005㧕㧚 ԝ ޟࠪ㧙࡞ࠟ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔㘑ኂ㧕㧦㐳ᦼ㑆ߩ᥸㘑㧔፲㧕ߦࠃࠅ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧔የ ፒ㧘2003㧕㧚 Ԟ ޟࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔㤥޿ἴኂ㧕㧦౻ᤐቄߩή㒠㔐߇ේ࿃ߢ᳓ਇ⿷ߦࠃࠅ⊒↢ߔ ࠆ࠱࠼㧚Ⓧ㔐߇ߥߊ⴫࿯߇㤥ߊ⷗߃ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄߎߩࠃ߁ߦ⸒ࠊࠇࠆ㧔ዊᴛ㧘 1995㧕㧚 ߎࠇࠄߩ߁ߜԙએᄖߪ࠱࠼ⵍኂࠍ⊒↢ߐߖࠆ⥄ὼⷐ࿃ߦ⸒෸ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠅ㧘 ᧄ⎇ⓥߢߪߘߩਛߢ߽ਥߦ᳇᷷ߣ㒠᳓㊂ߩ⇣Ᏹ୯ߦࠃߞߡ⊒↢ߔࠆԘޟࠟࡦ࡮࠱ ࠼ޠ㧘Ԛޟ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧘Ԝޟࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ㨯࠱࠼ޠ㧘Ԟޟࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ޠߦߟ޿ߡᬌ ⸛ߔࠆ㧚⺞ᩏ࿾ߩ᭎ⷐ ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߩ᭎ⷐ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ߩᦨ᧲┵ߦ૏⟎ߒ㧘㓞ធߔࠆࡋࡦ࠹ࠖ⋵߅ࠃ߮ࠬࡈࡃ࡯࠻࡞⋵ߣߣ߽ ߦࡕࡦࠧ࡞ߩ᧲ㇱ࿾ၞߣߐࠇࠆ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵㧔Fig.ΤΤ-1㧕߇⎇ⓥኻ⽎࿾ߢ޽ࠆ㧚࠼࡞ ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ㧘㕙Ⓧ12.4 ਁ km2_㧘ੱญ_{7.5 ਁੱ㧘ኅ⇓㗡ᢙ 145 ਁ㗡㧔2009 ᐕ㧕ࠍ᦭ߔ} ࠆ㧚ᮡ㜞 600㨪800m ߩ⿠ફߩዋߥ޿ᐔේࠍߥߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘ᐔဋᮡ㜞߇ 1,500m ࠍ⿥ ߃ࠆࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩਛߢߪૐᮡ㜞ߦ૏⟎ߔࠆ㧚ߘߩߚ߼㧘ᐔဋ᳇᷷ߪ1 ᦬ߦ-22.7°C㧘

(13)

㧣 7 ᦬ߦ 20.3°C ߣࡕࡦࠧ࡞ਛർㇱߣᲧセߒߡ᦬೎ᐔဋ᳇᷷߇ 2°C ⒟ᐲ㜞޿㧚߹ߚ㧘 ᐕ㑆㒠᳓㊂ߪ270mm ⒟ᐲߢ޽ࠅ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ධㇱߩࠧࡆ࿾ᣇߣᲧߴߡ㒠᳓㊂߽ᄙ޿㧚 ߎߩࠃ߁ߦᒰ⋵ߪᲧセ⊛᳇⽎᧦ઙߦᕺ߹ࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄᐢၞߦᐢ߇ࠆ⨲ේࠍ೑ ↪ߒߡવ⛔⊛ߦ⟠߿㚍ߩ᡼’߇⋓ࠎߢ޽ࠅ㧘߹ߚࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ౝߢ߽࠱࠼ߦࠃࠆⵍ ኂߩ⊒↢㗫ᐲ߇ዋߥ޿࿾ၞߢ޽ࠆ㧔Templer et al., 1993㧕㧚એ਄ߩߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘ᧄ⋵ߪ ࿾ᒻߩ⿠ફ߇ዋߥߊ࿾඙ౝߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙ߇߶߷ဋ৻ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ㧘߹ߚ㧘એ೨߆ࠄㆆ ’߇ߐ߆ࠎߦⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᐕ㑆ᄌേߣኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫߣߩ㑐ଥ ࠍ⸃ᨆߔࠆߩߦㆡߒߡ޿ࠆߣ್ᢿߒ㧘ኻ⽎࿾඙ߣߒߚ㧚

(14)

㧤 Fig.ΤΤ-1 ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߩ૏⟎࿑

(15)

㧥

᳇⽎ߩ㐳ᦼᄌേ․ᕈ

CRUTS3.1㧔University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) [Phil Jones, Ian

Harris], 2008㧕ࠍ↪޿ߡᢛℂߒߚ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ㐳ᦼߩ᳇⽎ᄌേ․ᕈࠍ␜ߔ㧚 CRUTS3.1 ߪ㧘࿾਄᷹ⷰ࠺࡯࠲ߦ߽ߣߠ߈⛔⸘⊛ߥౝᝌࠍᣉߒߡ▚಴ߐࠇߚో⃿ ࠍࠞࡃ࡯ߔࠆ᦬න૏ߩ㐳ᦼ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲࠮࠶࠻ߢ޽ࠆ㧔Mitchel㧘2005㧕㧚ⓨ㑆⸃௝ ᐲ0.5°ߢ 1901㨪2009 ᐕߩᦼ㑆ߢᢛ஻ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߎߩ࠺࡯࠲࠮࠶࠻߆ࠄ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼ ⋵ߩ⋵ၞߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ66 ࿾ὐߩ᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷߅ࠃ߮᦬㒠᳓㊂ࠍ᛽಴ߒ㧘▚ⴚᐔဋ୯ࠍ ᳞߼ߡ⋵ߩઍ⴫୯ߣߒߚ㧚߹ߚ㧘㒠㔎ߩᄢㇱಽ߇㒠ࠆ6㨪8 ᦬ࠍᄐቄ㧘᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷ ߇᳖ὐਅࠍ⸥㍳ߔࠆ10㨪⠉ᐕ 3 ᦬ࠍ౻ቄߣଢቱ⊛ߦቯ⟵ߒߚ㧚

1930㨪2009 ᐕߩᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ᳇᷷߅ࠃ߮㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌേࠍ Fig.ΤΤ-2(a)߅ࠃ߮ Fig.

Τ-2 (b)ߦ␜ߔ㧚ᐕ㑆ᐔဋ᳇᷷㧔Fig.2Τ-2(a)㧕ߪ௑ะ✢߆ࠄ⚂±1͠⒟ᐲߩᄌേ᏷߇ ⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚1970 ᐕઍ߆ࠄ৻⽾ߒߡ਄᣹ߒ㧘1930 ᐕߩ⚂-0.8°C ߣᲧセߔࠆߣ 2000 ᐕઍߩᐔဋ୯ߪ⚂ 1.2°C ߣ⚂ 2.0°C ߩ਄᣹߇⏕⹺ߢ߈ࠆ㧚ߎࠇߪ㧘ᄐቄߩᐔဋ᷷ ᐲ߇1980 ᐕߩ 18°C ߆ࠄ 2008 ᐕߩ 20°C ߳ߣ 2°C ਄᣹ߒߚߎߣߣ㧘౻ቄߩᐔဋ᳇ ᷷߇1940 ᐕߩ-22.0°C ߆ࠄ 2009 ᐕߩ-19.5°C ߹ߢ 2.5°C ਄᣹ߒߚߎߣ߇ነਈߒߡ ޿ࠆ㧚 ৻ᣇ㧘ᐕ㑆㒠᳓㊂㧔Fig.Τ-2(b)㧕ߪᐕޘᄌേ߇ᄢ߈ߊ㧘ᐔဋ 280mm ೨ᓟߩ௑ะ ✢߆ࠄ⚂±80mm ⒟ᐲߩᄌേ᏷߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚㐳ᦼ⊛ߦߪ 1990 ᐕ㗃߆ࠄ৻⽾ߒߡᷫ ዋߒ㧘ߎߩ20 ᐕ㑆ߦ⚂ 80mm ⒟ᐲ㧘ߘࠇ߹ߢߩᐕ㒠᳓㊂ߩ 30㨪40㧑⒟ᐲᷫዋߒ ߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߎࠇߦߪ㧘ᄐቄ㒠㔎㊂߇1990 ᐕ߹ߢߪ 200mm ೨ᓟߢផ⒖ߒߡ޿ߚߩߦ ኻߒߡ2008 ᐕߦߪ 130mm ߹ߢᕆỗߦᷫዋߒߚߎߣ߇ᄢ߈ߊነਈߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚એ਄ ࠃࠅ㧘ㄭᐕߢߪ㧘㗼⪺ߥ᳇᷷਄᣹ߣᄐቄ㒠㔎㊂ߩᷫዋ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆߎߣ߇㧘࠼࡞ࡁ ࠼⋵ߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩ․ᓽߣ⸒߃ࠆ㧚

(16)

㧝㧜

Cᐕᐔဋ᳇᷷ߩᄌേ

The change of annual average air temperature

D ᐕ㑆㒠᳓㊂ߩᄌേ The change of annual precipitation

Fig.ΤΤ-2 ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ᳇୥᧦ઙߩᐕ㑆ᄌേ㧔1930㨪2009 ᐕ㧕

The change of climate conditions in Dornod prefecture (1930-2009) -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 ᐕ ᐔ ဋ ᳇ ᷷ 䐳 ͠ 䐴 (mm) 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 ᐕ 㑆㒠 ᳓ ㊂

(17)

㧝㧝 ኅ⇓ᢙߩ㐳ᦼᄌേ߅ࠃ߮࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢⁁ᴫ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢߪᲤᐕ12 ᦬ 7 ᣣ㨪15 ᣣߩᦼ㑆ߦో࿖ߩ’⇓ᬺߩᐕᐲ⁁ᴫ߇᡽ᐭ ߦࠃߞߡ㓸⸘ߐࠇ㧘޽ࠊߖߡ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇⸥㍳ߐࠇࠆࡕࡦࠧ࡞⑼ቇࠕࠞ࠺ࡒ࡯߆ࠄ ឭଏߐࠇߚߎࠇࠄߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߡ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ⇓⒳೎㗡ᢙߩᐕᄌൻ߅ࠃ ߮࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢ᐕࠍᢛℂߒߚ߽ߩࠍFig.ΤΤ-3 ߦ␜ߔ㧚એਅߢߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ ␠ળ೙ᐲߩᄌൻࠍ3 ᤨᦼߦ඙ಽߒߡኅ⇓ᢙߩ㐳ᦼᄌേߣ࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢⁁ᴫࠍ᭎ⷰߔ ࠆ㧚 ╙Σᦼ ␠ળਥ⟵૕೙߳ߩ⒖ⴕᦼ㧦1942㨪1961 ᐕ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩ␠ળਥ⟵ൻߦࠃࠅ㧘ን⵨ߥㆆ’᳃߅ࠃ߮ኹ߇ᚲ᦭ߒߡ޿ߚኅ⇓߇ ߔߴߡߩㆆ’᳃ߦౣ㈩ಽߐࠇ㧘1960ᐕ߹ߢߦో࿖20ਁᚭߩㆆ’᳃ߔߴߡ߇ࡀࠣ࠺ ࡞ߦട౉ߒߚ㧚ࡀࠣ࠺࡞ߣߪ᡽ᐭਥዉߢ⚵❱ൻ߇ㅴ߼ࠄࠇߚㄘ’ᬺ౒ห⚵วࠍᜰ ߒ㧘’᳃߇ㄘᬺ↢↥ߣ⽼ᄁࠍ౒หߢⴕ߁⚵❱ߢ޽ࠆ㧚ኅ⇓✚ᢙߪ1953ᐕ߹ߢߪჇ ടߒ㧘ߘߩᓟ᣿ࠄ߆ߥᷫዋࠍߺߖߡ޿ࠆ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߢ⊒↢ߒߚ࠱࠼ߪ㧘1944㨪 45ᐕߩో࿖⊛ߥ࠱࠼ࠍ฽߼⸘8࿁ߢ޽ࠅ㧘⊒↢㗫ᐲߪ2.5ᐕߦ1࿁ߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ╙Τᦼ ࠦࡔࠦࡦ߳ߩട౉㧦1962㨪1991 ᐕ 1962 ᐕ߆ࠄࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߪᣥ࠰ㅪ߅ࠃ߮᧲᰷␠ળਥ⟵࿖ኅ߇ෳടߔࠆࠦࡔࠦࡦ 㧔COMmunist ECONomic community: COMECON㧕ߦട౉ߒㄘᬺㇱ㐷ߩᒝൻ߇࿑ࠄ ࠇࠆࠃ߁ߦߥߞߚ㧚ߎࠇߦࠃࠅ ㄘᬺᓥ੐⠪ߪ 1940 ᐕઍߩ 0.4㧑߆ࠄ 1960 ᐕઍߩ 16㧑㧘1985 ᐕߦߥࠆߣ 36.7㧑ࠍභ߼Ⓝ‛ャ಴࿖ߦォߓߡ޿ࠆ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞㧘2004㧕㧚 ߒ߆ߒ㧘’⇓ᬺߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩᩮᐙ↥ᬺࠍ⛽ᜬߒ⛯ߌߚ㧚⊒↢ߒߚ࠱࠼ߪ⸘7 ࿁ ߢ޽ࠅ㧘⊒↢㗫ᐲߪ4.3 ᐕߦ 1 ࿁ߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ╙Υᦼ Ꮢ႐⚻ᷣൻ࡮⑳᦭⚻༡߳ߩ⒖ⴕᦼ㧦1991㨪2010 ᐕ ࠰ㅪ፣უߦ઻߁ࠦࡔࠦࡦߩ⸃ᢔߦࠃࠅ㧘’ㄘᬺߩਥߥ↢↥⚵❱ߢ޽ߞߚ࿖༡ㄘ

(18)

㧝㧞 ႐߿ࡀࠣ࠺࡞߽፣უߒ㧘⑳᦭⽷↥ൻߣᕆㅦߥᏒ႐⚻ᷣൻ߇ㅴ߼ࠄࠇߚ㧚᧲ㇱ࿾ၞ ߦ߅ߌࠆㆆ’᳃ᢙߪ1990 ᐕߩ 16,500 ੱ߆ࠄ 2000 ᐕߦߪ 45,200 ੱ߳ߣ⚂ 3 ୚ߦᕆ Ⴧߒߡ޿ࠆ㧔⊕㗇㧘2003㧕㧚ኅ⇓✚ᢙߩჇ߽ᷫỗߒߊ㧘1995 ᐕ߹ߢߩᷫዋߣ৻ォ ߒߚჇടߦࠃࠅ2008 ᐕ߹ߢߦ 147.6 ਁ㗡ߦ㆐ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚ᶏᄖᏒ႐ߢขᒁߐࠇࠆࡕ ࡦࠧ࡞࡮ࠞࠪࡒࠕߩჇ↥ߩߚ߼ߦ㧘ጊ⟠ߩ㗡ᢙ߇㗼⪺ߦჇടߒߚߎߣ߇Ⴧടߩਥ ⷐ࿃ߢ޽ࠆ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞㧘2004; Saizen, 2010㧕㧚2008 ᐕ߅ࠃ߮ 2009 ᐕߦ⊒↢ߒߚ ᄢ߈ߥ࠱࠼ࠍ฽߼⸘7 ࿁ߩ࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘⊒↢㗫ᐲߪ㧘2.9 ᐕߦ 1 ࿁ߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߪㆊ෰ 70 ᐕ㑆ߩ㑆ߦ␠ળ૕೙ߩᄢ߈ߥᄌൻࠍ 2 ࿁⚻㛎ߒߚ.ߎߩ␠ળ ਥ⟵߳ߩ⒖ⴕᦼ㧔╙Σᦼ㧕߅ࠃ߮Ꮢ႐⚻ᷣൻᦼ㧔╙Υᦼ㧕ߦߪ㧘࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢㗫ᐲ ߽Ⴧടߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘␠ળ૕೙ߩᄌൻ߽ዋߥ߆ࠄߕ࠱࠼ߦᓇ㗀ߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇␜ໂߐ ࠇࠆ㧚

(19)

㧝㧟

Fig.ΤΤ-3 ࠼ࡠࡁ࠼⋵ߩ⇓೎㗡ᢙߩផ⒖㧔1942㨪2010 ᐕ㧕

The number of each livestock in Dornod prefecture (1942-2010)

↓

↓↓↓

↓

࠱࠼⊒↢ᐕ

↓

0

200

400

600

800 1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

ኅ

⇓

㗡

ᢙ

䐳

ජ

㗡

䐴

㚸㚭

㚍

‐

⟠

ጊ⟠

(20)

㧝㧠 ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣኅ⇓ᢙᄌേߩ⋧㑐ಽᨆ ᳇୥ቇ⊛ⷐ࿃ߩᜰᮡ ߎࠇ߹ߢߦ߽㧘࠱࠼ߦኻߔࠆ᳇୥ⷐ࿃ߩಽᨆߪᄙߊߥߐࠇߡ߈ߚ㧔᫪᳗㧘2005㧧 Bolortsetseg, 1996; Dagvadorj, 2009㧕㧚ߘߩਛߢ߽㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖᳇⽎᳓ᢥ⎇ⓥᚲߦࠃ

ࠅᐕ㑆᳇୥ᜰᢙS ߇ឭ᩺ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001㧕㧚

S=Ss㧙Sw (1) ߎߎߢ㧘Ss㧩'Ts㧙'Rs㧘Sw= 'Tw㧙'Rwߣቯ⟵ߐࠇ㧘ߘࠇߙࠇᄐቄ᳇୥ᜰᢙ㧘౻ ቄ᳇୥ᜰᢙߣ๭߫ࠇࠆ㧚Ssࠍ᭴ᚑߔࠆฝㄝᚑಽߪᰴᑼߦࠃࠅቯ⟵ߐࠇࠆ㧚 'Ts = (Ts㧙Tsm)/VTs (2) 'Rs = (Rs㧙Rsm)/VRs (3) ߎߎߢ㧘Ts㧦ฦᐕߩᄐቄ㧔6㨪8 ᦬㧕ᐔဋ᳇᷷㧘Tsm㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆTsߩᐔဋ ୯㧘VTs㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆTsߩᮡḰ஍Ꮕࠍ޽ࠄࠊߔ㧚߹ߚ㧘Rs㧦ฦᐕߩᄐቄ㒠᳓ ㊂㧘Rsm㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆRsߩᐔဋ୯㧘VRs㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆRsߩᮡḰ஍Ꮕࠍ ޽ࠄࠊߔ㧚ห᭽ߦ㧘౻ቄ᳇୥ᜰᢙߪᰴᑼߦࠃࠅቯ⟵ߐࠇࠆ㧚 'Tw = (Tw㧙Twm)/VTw (4) 'Rw = (Rw㧙Rwm)/VRw (5) ߎߎߢ㧘Tw㧦ฦᐕߩ౻ቄ㧔10㨪⠉ᐕ 3 ᦬㧕ᐔဋ᳇᷷㧘Twm㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ Twߩᐔဋ୯㧘VTw㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆTwߩᮡḰ஍Ꮕࠍ޽ࠄࠊߔ㧚߹ߚ㧘Rw㧦ฦᐕ

(21)

㧝㧡 ߩ౻ቄ㒠᳓㊂㧘Rwm㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ Rwߩᐔဋ୯㧘VRw㧦⸘▚ᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ Rw ߩᮡḰ஍Ꮕࠍ޽ࠄࠊߔ㧚 ߎߩࠃ߁ߦቯ⟵ߐࠇߚᐕ㑆᳇୥ᜰᢙS ߪ㧘࠱࠼ⵍኂߩ⊒↢ߦ㑐ㅪߔࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄ ࠇࠆ᳇᷷ߣ㒠᳓㊂ߩኦᄙࠍᄐቄ߅ࠃ߮౻ቄߘࠇߙࠇߦᱜⷙൻߒߡᜰᮡൻߒߚ߽ߩ ߢ޽ࠆ㧚㜞᷷ዋ㔎ߩ⒟ᐲ߇ᄢ߈޿߶ߤSsߩ୯߇ᄢ߈ߊߥࠅ㧘ૐ᷷ᄙ㔐ߩ⒟ᐲ߇ᄢ ߈޿߶ߤSwߩ୯߇ዊߐߊߥࠆߚ߼㧘✚ߓߡS ߩ୯߇ᄢ߈޿߶ߤ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇ᄢ߈ߊ ߥࠆߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆ㧚 ᳇୥ᜰᢙߣ࠱࠼⊒↢ߣߩ㑐ଥ 1942㨪2009 ᐕߦ߅ߌࠆ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ S ߩᄌേࠍ Fig.ΤΤ-4 ߦ␜ߔ㧚1990 ᐕએ㒠ᕆỗߦS ߩ୯߇Ⴧടߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ᄢ߈ߥ․ᓽߢ޽ࠆ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߩ㐳ᦼ ᳇⽎ᄌേ․ᕈ߆ࠄ߽᣿ࠄ߆ߥࠃ߁ߦ㧘ᄐቄ㒠᳓㊂ߩ㗼⪺ߥᷫዋ߇S ߩჇടߦነਈ ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߎߩߎߣߪ㧘1990 ᐕએ㒠㧘࠱࠼ⵍኂߩ㑆ធ⊛ߥේ࿃ߣߥࠅ߁ࠆࠟࡦ߇ ⊒↢ߒᤃ޿᳇⽎᧦ઙߣߥߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ␜ໂߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ߐࠄߦ࠱࠼ߩ⸥㍳߇ሽ࿷ߔࠆ1942㨪2009 ᐕߩᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆฦᐕߩ S ࠍ SsߣSw ᚑಽߦ඙ಽߒ㧘ࡊࡠ࠶࠻ߒߚ߽ߩࠍFig.Τ-5 ߦ␜ߔ㧚࿑ਛߢߪ㧘࠱࠼ߩ⸥㍳߇޽ ߞߚᐕࠍ٨ߢ␜ߒߚ㧚ฦ⽎㒢ߪ㧘ᄐቄߦ㜞᷷ዋ㔎࡮౻ቄߦ㜞᷷ዋ㔐㧔╙1 ⽎㒢㧕㧘 ᄐቄߦૐ᷷ᄙ㔎࡮౻ቄߦ㜞᷷ዋ㔎㧔╙2 ⽎㒢㧕㧘ਅ⸥ߦૐ᷷ᄙ㔎࡮౻ቄߦૐ᷷ᄙ㔐㧔╙3 ⽎㒢㧕㧘ᄐቄߦ㜞᷷ዋ㔎࡮౻ቄߦૐ᷷ᄙ㔐㧔╙ 4 ⽎㒢㧕ࠍ⴫ߔ㧚ฦ⽎㒢ߦ㧘 ߶߷ဋ╬ߦ࠺࡯࠲߇ಽᏓߒߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒߡ㧘࠱࠼⊒↢ᐕߩಽᏓߪ㧘ฦ⽎㒢ߦ2㧘 4㧘7㧘8 ࿁ߣ஍ࠅ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚․ߦ౻ቄߩૐ᷷ᄙ㔐ߦ⹥ᒰߔࠆ╙ 3 ⽎㒢࡮╙ 4 ⽎㒢ߢߪ36 ὐߩ߁ߜ 15 ὐ߇࠱࠼⊒↢ᐕߦ⋧ᒰߒ㧘౻ቄߩૐ᷷ᄙ㔐߇࠱࠼ߩᦨ߽ᄢ ߈ߥⷙቯⷐ࿃ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇␜ໂߐࠇߚ㧚

(22)

㧝㧢

F

Fig.Τ-4 ᐕ㑆᳇୥ᜰᢙߩᄌേ㧔1942㨪2009 ᐕ㧕 The change of total climate index (1942-2009)

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 ᐕ 㑆 ᳇ ୥ ᜰ ᢙ 㧿

(23)

㧝㧣

Fig.ΤΤ-5 ᄐቄ᳇୥ᜰᢙ Ssߣ౻ቄ᳇୥ᜰᢙSwߩಽᏓ

Distribution of summer and winter climate index ᄐ࡮ૐ᷷ᄙ㔎 ౻ ࡮ ૐ ᷷ ᄙ 㔐 ᄐ࡮㜞᷷ዋ㔎 ౻ ࡮ 㜞 ᷷ ዋ 㔐 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 S_w S_s ᐔ᳓ᐕ ࠱࠼⊒↢ᐕ

(24)

㧝㧤 ᢣᱫ₸ߩቯ⟵ ೨▵ߢߪ㧘ૐ᷷ᄙ㔐ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇࠱࠼ߩ᳇⽎⊛ߥⷙቯⷐ࿃ߣߒߡ㊀ⷐߢ޽ࠆߎ ߣ߇␜ໂߐࠇߚ߇㧘࠱࠼ߩ⸥㍳⥄૕߇ቯᕈ⊛ߥߚ߼ቯ㊂⹏ଔߦߪ⋥⚿ߒ߃ߥ޿㧚 ߘߎߢ㧘᳇୥ⷐ࿃ߣ࠱࠼ⵍኂߣߩ㑐ଥࠍࠃࠅቯ㊂⊛ߦ⹏ଔߔࠆߚ߼㧘ޟᢣᱫ㧔߳޿ ߒ㧕₸ޠࠍ࠱࠼ⵍኂߩᜰᮡߣߒߡ↪޿ߚ㧚એਅߦᢣᱫ₸ߩቯ⟵ࠍ⺑᣿ߔࠆ㧚 ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢߪ1970 ᐕ߆ࠄኅ⇓ߩᱫ੢ᢙ߇ᱜᑼߦ⺞ᩏߐࠇ㧘ᚑᐕኅ⇓⇣Ᏹᢣᱫ 㧔એਅ㧘ޟᢣᱫޠߣ⇛ߔࠆ㧕ߣߒߡ㓸⸘ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߥ߅㧘ᢣᱫߦߪ㧘੿ኅ⇓ߩᱫ ੢㧘⁤ߩⷅ᠄ߦࠃࠆᚑᐕኅ⇓ߩᲕኂ㧘ᵆ᫔ߦࠃࠆ⋑㔍㧘ᕆ∛ߦࠃࠆᱫ੢㧘᥸㘑ߥ ߤߦࠃࠆⴕᣇਇ᣿╬ߦࠃࠆᷫዋߪ฽߹ࠇߕ㧘߅ࠃߘ⥄ὼἴኂߦ⿠࿃ߒߚᱫ੢ᢙߣ ߺߥߒߡࠃ޿㧚 ੹㧘1 ᐕࠍㅢߓߚ’⇓㗡ᢙߩᄌേࠍᮨᑼ⊛ߦ⴫ߒߚߩ߇ Fig.ΤΤ-6 ߢ޽ࠆ㧚޽ࠆ ᐕi ߩ 12 ᦬ᤨὐߦ߅ߌࠆኅ⇓㗡ᢙࠍ Tiߣߔࠆߣ㧘12 ᦬߆ࠄ 5 ᦬ߪ’⇓ߩ↢ᱫߦ 㑐ࠊࠆ෩ߒ޿౻ᤐቄߢ޽ࠅ㧘’⇓ߩᢣᱫ Hi+1ߪߎߩᦼ㑆ߦ㓸ਛߔࠆ㧚⨲ේߩᬀ↢ ᚑ㐳߇ᆎ߹ࠆ 5 ᦬߆ࠄ੿ኅ⇓ߩ಴↥߇ᆎ߹ࠅ 10 ᦬㗃ߦ’⇓ᢙ߇ᦨᄢߦߥࠆ㧚ߘ ߩᓟ㧘⽼ᄁ߿⒢㊄⋡⊛ߢߩዼ⇓߇ᆎ߹ࠅ12 ᦬ೋᣨ߹ߢߦߪዼ⇓߇⚳ੌߒ㧘ᰴߩᐕ ߩ࠮ࡦࠨࠬ߇ⴕࠊࠇࠆ㧚಴↢ߦࠃࠆჇടᢙ߅ࠃ߮ዼ⇓ߦࠃࠆᷫዋᢙ߇ߘࠇߙࠇSi+1 ߣ Ki+1ߢ޽ࠄࠊߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߎࠇࠄߩࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߡኅ⇓ᢙߩᐕޘᄌേࠍ⴫ ߔߣᰴᑼߩࠃ߁ߦߥࠆ㧚

Ti+1㧙Ti = Si+1㧙Hi+1㧙Ki+1 (6)

ߎߎߢ㧘ዼ⇓ߪㆆ’᳃ߩ↢↥࡮෼ⓠᵴേߢ޽ࠆ߇㧘ㆆ’᳃ߪ⨲ේߩ’㙃ജ

(25)

㧝㧥 ⷐ࿃ߩ૞↪߇ᒝ޿㧚ઁᣇ㧘Si+1㧘Hi+1ߪᲧセ⊛⥄ὼⷐ࿃ߩ૞↪߇ᒝ޿㧚ߎߩࠃ߁ߥ ᐕ㑆ߩჇᷫࠨࠗࠢ࡞ࠍ⠨ᘦߒߡ㧘ᢣᱫ₸HP ࠍᰴᑼߦࠃࠅቯ⟵ߒߚ㧚 HP = Hi+1/Ti (7)

(26)

㧞㧜 Fig.ΤΤ-6 ৻ᐕ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ’⇓ᢙߩᄌേࡄ࠲࡯ࡦ

(27)

㧞㧝 ᳇୥ᜰᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ㑐ଥ ೨▵ߢቯ⟵ߒߚᢣᱫ₸HP ࠍ⋡⊛ᄌᢙ㧘ᐕ㑆᳇୥ᜰᢙ S ߅ࠃ߮ߘߩ᭴ᚑᚑಽ㧔Ss㧘 Sw'Rs㧘'Ts㧘'Rw㧘'Ts㧕ࠍ⺑᣿ᄌᢙߣߒߡ✢ᒻ࿁Ꮻߒߡᓧࠄࠇࠆ⋧㑐ଥᢙࠍᬌ ⸛ߒߚ㧚޽ࠊߖߡ㧘2.2 ▵ߢ⺑᣿ߒߚౖဳ⊛ߥ 4 ⒳㘃ߩ࠱࠼ߢ޽ࠆޟࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧘 ޟࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧘ޟࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧘ޟ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ߇⊒↢ߒ߁ࠆ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦ ⹥ᒰߔࠆᐕߩߺࠍ᛽಴ߒห᭽ߩ࿁Ꮻಽᨆࠍⴕߞߚ㧚ߚߣ߃߫㧘ޟࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠߪ㧘 ᄐቄዋ㔎ߩߣ߈ߦ⊒↢ߒ߁ࠆߚ߼㧘'Rs<0 ߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆᐕࠍ᛽಴ߒ㧘'Rs⥄り㧘'Rs ࠍ᭴ᚑⷐ⚛ߣߔࠆSs߅ࠃ߮S ߣ HP ߣߩ࿁Ꮻಽᨆࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆ㧚ᓧࠄࠇߚ࿁Ꮻଥ ᢙ߅ࠃ߮⋧㑐ଥᢙߩ৻ⷩࠍTableΤΤ-1 ߦ␜ߔ㧚 (1)᧦ઙߥߒߩ႐ว㧦ಽ㘃⇟ภΣ ߔߴߡ⋧㑐ଥᢙߪ0.01㨪0.15 ߣᭂ߼ߡዊߐ޿㧚ߔߥࠊߜ㧘ߔߴߡߩᐕࠍኻ⽎ߦ ߔࠆߣ㧘ᢣᱫ₸HP ߣᐕ㑆᳇୥ᜰᢙ S ߿ߘߩ᭴ᚑᚑಽ㧔Ss㧘Sw'Rs㧘'Ts㧘'Rw㧘 'Ts㧕ߩ㑆ߦߪ᣿⍎ߥ⋧㑐㑐ଥ߇⃻ࠇߥ޿㧚᳇᷷޽ࠆ޿ߪ㒠᳓㊂߇⇣Ᏹ୯ߢߥ޿႐ ว㧘ᢣᱫ₸ߪઁߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃߿␠ળ⊛ⷐ࿃╬ߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡᄌേߔࠆߎߣ߇ℂ↱ߣ ߒߡ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚 (2)ࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߒ߁ࠆ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩ႐ว㧦ಽ㘃⇟ภΤ ޟࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠߪ㧘ᄐቄዋ㔎ߩߣ߈ߦ⊒↢ߒ߁ࠆߚ߼㧘'Rs<0 ߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆᐕࠍ ᛽಴ߒߚ㧚⋧㑐ଥᢙߪ✚ߓߡዊߐߊ㧘ᄐቄߩዋ㔎ߛߌߢߪ࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߔࠆⷐ࿃ߣ ߥࠄߥ޿ߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߢߩ⡞߈ขࠅ߆ࠄ㧘ᄐቄߩᐓ߫ߟߦࠃߞߡ㙄⾗Ḯ߇ਇ⿷ߒ౻ᤐቄߩᢣᱫ߇੍᷹ߐࠇࠆ႐ว㧘ᄙ߼ߩዼᲕߦࠃࠆ㗡ᢙߩ೙ᓮ㧘ઁ ࿾඙߳ߩ⒖േ㧘’⨲ߩ⾂⫾ߥߤߩኻ╷߇ߣࠄࠇ㧘น⢻ߥ㒢ࠅ౻ᤐቄߢߩ࠱࠼ⵍኂ ࠍシᷫߔࠆദജ߇ⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߣߩߎߣߢ޽ࠆ㧚

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㧞㧞 (3)ࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߔࠆ᳇୥᧦ઙ㧦ಽ㘃⇟ภΥ ࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ߪ౻ቄߩ㒠㔐㊂߇ዋߥ޿ߣ߈ߦ⊒↢ߒ߁ࠆߚ߼㧘'Rw<0 ߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆ ᐕࠍ᛽಴ߒߚ㧚⋧㑐ଥᢙߪᭂ߼ߡዊߐߊ㧘౻ቄߩዋ㔐ߪ’⇓ⵍኂߦోߊᓇ㗀ߒߥ ޿ߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߢߩ⡞߈ขࠅߢߪ㧘౻ቄߩዋ㔐ߢ߽੗ᚭߩជ೥ߦࠃ ߞߡኅ⇓ߩ᳓ಽ⵬⛎ࠍน⢻ߦߒ㧘ᤐቄߩⲢ㔐ᦼߦߪ㧘⫳⊒ߦࠃߞߡ᳓ಽ߇ᄬࠊࠇ ࠆ೨ߦᱷ㔐ߩ޽ࠆർᣇ߳ኅ⇓ࠍ⒖േߐߖࠆߥߤߩኻ╷߇ߣࠄࠇ㧘ࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ߩ⊒ ↢ࠍᧂὼߦ㒐޿ߢ޿ࠆࠃ߁ߢ޽ࠆ㧚߹ߚ㧘ᄐቄߩ㒠㔎㊂߇ᐔᐕ୯ࠃࠅዋߥ޿᧦ઙ 㧔'Rs<0㧕ࠍട߃ߡ߽⋧㑐ଥᢙߪᭂ߼ߡዊߐߊ㧘1 ᐕࠍㅢߒߡ㒠᳓㊂߇ዋߥߊߡ߽ ⋥ធ࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢ⷐ࿃ߦߪߥࠄߥ޿ߎߣ߇ផኤߐࠇࠆ. (4)ࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ࡮࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߔࠆ᳇୥᧦ઙ㧦ಽ㘃⇟ภΦ ࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ࡮࠱࠼ߪ౻ቄߩ᳇᷷߇ૐ޿ߣ߈ߦ⊒↢ߒ߁ࠆߚ߼'Tw<0 ߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆᐕ ࠍ᛽಴ߒߚ㧚⋧㑐ଥᢙߪ߆ߥࠅૐߊ㧘౻ቄૐ᷷ߩ᧦ઙߛߌߢߪ࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߔࠆ⋥ ធ⊛ߥේ࿃ߦߪߥࠄߥ޿㧚ߎߩℂ↱ߣߒߡ㧘࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ㧘ᮡ㜞߇ૐ޿ߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘 ઁ⋵ߣᲧセߒߡ౻ቄߩ᳇᷷ߪᲧセ⊛㜞ߊ㧘౻ቄߩ᳇᷷߇ᐔᐕ୯ࠃࠅૐߊߡ߽ኅ⇓ ߩⵍኂ߇ዋߥ޿ߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆ㧚ߐࠄߦ㧘ᄐቄዋ㔎㧔'Rs<0㧕ߣ޿߁᧦ઙࠍട߃ ࠆߣ⋧㑐ଥᢙߪ⧯ᐓᄢ߈ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘ਔ⠪ߦߪ᣿⏕ߥ⋧㑐㑐ଥߪ⷗ࠄࠇߥ޿㧚 (5)࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߔࠆ᳇⽎᧦ઙ㧦ಽ㘃⇟ภΧ ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ߪ౻ቄߩ㒠㔐߇ᄙ޿႐วߦ⊒↢ߒ߁ࠆߚ߼㧘'Rw>0 ߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆ ᐕࠍ᛽಴ߒߚ㧚ߘߩ⚿ᨐ㧘ᒙ޿⋧㑐߇⷗ࠄࠇ㧘౻ቄૐ᷷㧔'Tw<0㧕ߩ᧦ઙࠍ㊀ߨ ࠆߣ⋧㑐ଥᢙ߇߆ߥࠅ㜞ߊߥࠆߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ߞߚ㧚ߔߥࠊߜ㧘౻ቄߩᄙ㔐࡮ૐ᷷ߩ ᧦ઙ߇㊀ߥࠆߣ㧘⴫ጀߩ㔐߇ၷߊߥߞߡ’⇓ߩណ㘩߇࿎㔍ߣߥࠅ㧘೨ㅀߩ࠹࡞ࡓ࡮ ࠱࠼ߦ⊒ዷߔࠆߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆ㧚߹ߚ㧘ᄐቄዋ㔎㧔'Rs<0㧕ࠍട߃ࠆߣ㧘ߎߩ႐ วߦ߽⹥ᒰᐕߪዋߥ޿߽ߩߩ㧘ᭂ߼ߡ㜞޿⋧㑐߇ᓧࠄࠇߚ㧚ᄐቄዋ㔎ߦࠃߞߡࠟ

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㧞㧟 ࡦ߇⊒↢ߒ⨲ේᬀ↢߇⽺ᒙߥߣ߈ߦ౻ቄᄙ㔐ߩ᧦ઙ߇㊀ߥࠆߣ㧘ㆆ’⍮ߢߪኻᔕ ߒ߈ࠇߕ’⇓ߦࠃࠆណ㘩߇࿎㔍ߣߥࠅ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇㗼⪺ߦߥࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚એ਄ ߩߎߣߪ㧘1999㨪2003 ᐕߦ⊒↢ߒߚᄢⷙᮨ࠱࠼ߩಽᨆ߆ࠄ㧘౻ቄߩᄙ㔐ߦട߃೨ ᐕߩᄐቄߩᐓ߫ߟߦࠃߞߡኅ⇓ⵍኂ߇Ⴧ᏷ߒߚߣߔࠆႎ๔㧔Tachiiri et al., 2008㧕 ߣ৻⥌ߔࠆ௑ะࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚

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㧞㧠 Table ΤΤ-1 ᳇୥ᜰᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ㑐ଥ The relation between climate index and rate of death ಽ㘃⇟ ภ ᳇⽎᧦ઙ ࠨࡦࡊ ࡞ᢙ ᐔဋᢣ ᱫ₸ (%) No. ⺑᣿ᄌᢙ ଥᢙa ଥᢙb ⋧㑐ଥᢙ Σ ᧦ઙߥߒ 41 5.38 1 ΔTs -0.657 5.45 0.03 2 ΔRs 0.746 5.47 0.04 3 ΔTw -1.44 5.93 0.11 4 ΔRw 1.09 5.37 0.10 5 Ss -0.458 5.48 0.05 6 Sw -0.914 5.72 0.15 7 S 0.165 5.40 0.01 Τ ዋ㔎ᐕ 㧔ǍRs㧨0㧕 ࠟ ࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ 25 5.44 8 ΔRs 3.71 8.39 0.20 9 Ss -1.35 7.27 0.14 10 S 0.544 4.87 0.05 Υ ዋ㔐ᐕ 㧔ǍRw<0㧕 ࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ 23 5.51 11 ΔRw -0.372 5.24 0.004 12 Sw 0.064 5.59 0.0004 13 S -0.464 5.10 0.100 ዋ㔐ዋ㔎ᐕ 㧔ǍRs<0,ǍRw<0㧕 15 5.42 14 ΔRw -2.36 4.31 0.05 15 Sw -0.238 5.68 0.003 16 S -0.99 5.67 0.18 Φ ಄౻ᐕ 㧔ǍTw<0㧕 ࡈ ࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ࡮࠱࠼ 16 6.57 17 ΔTw -4.07 4.45 0.16 18 Sw -1.48 5.73 0.32 19 S 0.926 6.15 0.23 ಄౻ዋ㔎ᐕ (ǍTw㧨0,ǍRs㧨0㧕 9 7.72 20 ΔTw -6.81 4.60 0.29 21 Sw -2.08 6.38 0.45 22 S 1.34 5.81 0.26 Χ ᄙ㔐ᐕ 㧔ǍRw㧪0㧕 ࠷ ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ 18 5.21 23 ΔRw 3.06 2.41 0.49 24 Sw -2.22 3.40 0.60 25 S 0.862 4.53 0.20 ᄙ㔐಄౻ᐕ (ǍRw㧪0,ǍTw㧨0) ࠹ ࠹࡞ࡓ࡮࠱࠼ 7 7.66 26 ΔRw 3.30 3.69 0.73 27 Sw -2.58 2.31 0.70 28 S 1.61 3.72 0.46 ᄙ㔐ዋ㔎ᐕ 㧔ǍRw㧪0㧘Ǎ Rs<0㧕㧕 10 5.46 29 ΔRw 4.02 1.33 0.74 30 Sw -3.11 2.76 0.96 31 S 2.74 -0.650 0.70

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㧞㧡 ࠱࠼ⵍኂ⊒↢ߩᢣᱫ₸ߦࠃࠆᜰᮡൻ ᳇୥ᜰᮡߣᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆߎߣࠍㅢߒߡ㧘࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠱࠼ ⊒↢ߩਥⷐߥ᳇୥ⷐ࿃ࠍ․ቯߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߚ㧚ᧄ▵ߢߪ㧘࠱࠼ⵍኂߩ᦭ήࠍ◲ ᤃߦ್ቯߔࠆߎߣࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߡ㧘ᢣᱫ₸ߦࠃࠆቯ㊂ൻࠍ⹜ߺߚ㧚ߘߩߚ߼ߦ㧘ᰴ ᑼߢቯ⟵ߐࠇࠆჇട₸TP ߣᢣᱫ₸ HP ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍᬌ⸛ߒߚ㧚 TP = (Ti+1㧙Ti㧕/Ti (8) Ⴧട₸ߣᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍ Fig.ΤΤ-7 ߦ␜ߔਔ⠪ߦߪᲧセ⊛ࠃ޿⽶ߩ⋧㑐㑐ଥ ߇޽ࠅ㧘ᢣᱫ₸߇ᄢ߈ߊߥࠆߣჇട₸߇ᷫዋߔࠆ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇ㧘ਔ⠪ߩ✢ᒻ࿁Ꮻ ᑼ߆ࠄᢣᱫ₸߇⚂6%ߩߣ߈ߩჇട₸ߪ 0%ߣߥࠅኅ⇓✚ᢙ߇৻ቯ୯ߦ቟ቯߒ㧘಴ ↢ᢙ߇ዼ⇓ᢙߣᢣᱫᢙߩว⸘ߣ㊒ࠅว߁㑐ଥ߇޽ࠆ㧚ኅ⇓✚ᢙ߇ᷫዋߔࠆࠃ߁ߥ ࠱࠼ⵍኂߪ㧘ߎࠇࠃࠅᢣᱫ₸߇6㧑એ਄ߩߣ߈ߦ⊒↢ߔࠆ߽ߩߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚

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㧞㧢

Fig.ΤΤ7 ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆኅ⇓✚ᢙߩჇട₸ߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⋧㑐㑐ଥ

The relation between the increase and loss of livestockin Dornod Prefecture (%) y = -1.60x + 9.26 R² = 0.64 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 Ⴧ ട ₸ ᢣᱫ₸ (%)

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㧞㧣 ߹ߣ߼ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖᧲ㇱߩ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ࿖ౝߢ߽ᐔဋᮡ㜞߇ᦨ߽ૐ޿ߎߣ߆ࠄᐔဋ᳇᷷ ߩ㜞޿࿾඙ߢ㧘Ყセ⊛⿠ફ߇ዋߥߊᤄ߆ࠄㆆ’ᬺ߇⋓ࠎߦⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߎߩ࠼ ࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ࠍኻ⽎ߦߒߡ㧘㐳ᦼ㑆ߦࠊߚࠆ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲ߣᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ⋧㑐㑐ଥࠍಽᨆ ߔࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡ㧘࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߔࠆ᳇⽎⊛ⷐ࿃ߦߟ޿ߡᬌ⸛ߒߚ㧚ߘߩ⚿ᨐ㧘ᧄ ⎇ⓥ߆ࠄ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚߎߣࠍขࠅ➙߼ࠆߣએਅߩࠃ߁ߦߥࠆ㧚 (1) ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߢߪ㧘1970 ᐕ㗃߆ࠄᐕ㑆ᐔဋ᳇᷷߇⚂ 2͠਄᣹ߔࠆ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇ ࠆߎߣ㧘ߐࠄߦ㧘1990 ᐕ߆ࠄᄐቄ㒠㔎㊂߇ᷫዋߔࠆ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇߚ㧚 (2) ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߢߪ⚂ 3 ᐕߦ 1 ࿁ߩ㗫ᐲߢ࠱࠼ߩႎ๔߇޽ࠆ߇㧘ૐ᷷ᄙ㔐ᐕߢߪ ⚂2 ᐕߦ 1 ࿁ߣ࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢㗫ᐲ߇Ⴧടߔࠆ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇߚ㧚 (3) ᄐቄዋ㔎㧘౻ቄዋ㔐㧘౻ቄૐ᷷ߢߪ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߩ㑆ߦ⋧㑐㑐ଥ ߇⷗ࠄࠇߕ㧘࠱࠼⊒↢ߪ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩߺߢߪ⺑᣿ߢ߈ߥ޿㧚߹ߚ㧘ᒰ⋵ߢߪㆆ’ ⍮ߦࠃࠆ’⇓᳃ߩദജߢࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼㧘ࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼㧘ࡈࠖࡦ࠹ࡦ࡮࠱࠼ߩ⊒↢ࠍ ࿁ㆱߒߡ޿ࠆน⢻ᕈ߽␜ໂߐࠇߚ㧚 (4) ౻ቄߩᄙ㔐ߢߪ㧘㒠㔐㊂ߣᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ㑆ߦᱜߩ⋧㑐㑐ଥ߇⷗ࠄࠇ㧘ߎࠇߦᄐ ቄߩዋ㔎߿౻ቄߩૐ᷷ߩ᧦ઙ߇㊀ߥࠆߣ㧘ߎߩ௑ะ߇ࠃࠅ৻ጀ㗼⪺ߦߥߞߚ㧚 ߔߥࠊߜ㧘ᒰ⋵ߢ⊒↢ߔࠆߩߪ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ߢ޽ࠅ㧘ᄐቄߩዋ㔎߿౻ቄߩૐ ᷷ߦࠃߞߡ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇ᄢ߈ߊߥࠆߎߣࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒߚ㧚 (5) ᢣᱫ₸߇ 6%ࠍ⿥߃ࠆߣኅ⇓㗡ᢙߩჇട₸߇⽶ߦߥࠅ㧘ኅ⇓ᢙ߇ᷫዋߔࠆ௑ะ ߇⷗ࠄࠇߚ㧚ߔߥࠊߜ㧘ᢣᱫ₸6%એ਄ߩᐕߦ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇⊒↢ߔࠆ߽ߩߣ⠨߃ ࠄࠇࠆ

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㧞㧤

Υ

. ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫߣ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩ㑐ଥ

⋡⊛ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢߪ࠱࠼ߣ๭߫ࠇࠆ⥄ὼἴኂ߇㗫❥ߦ⊒↢ߒ㧘ኅ⇓ߦ↟ᄢߥⵍኂࠍ ෸߷ߔߎߣ߇޽ࠅ㧘⚿ᨐߣߒߡㆆ’᳃ߩ⽺࿎߿㘫㙈ߦߟߥ߇ࠆߎߣ߇ᄙ޿㧚ㆆ’ ᳃⥄りߪ㧘ޟ౻ᤐቄߦ’⨲߿㘶↪᳓ߩᰳਲߩߚ߼㧘ኅ⇓߇∳ߖᄢ㊂ߦᱫ੢ߔࠆߦ⥋

ࠆ⥄ὼἴኂޠో⥸ࠍޟ࠱࠼ޠߣ⴫⃻ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧔Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001㧕㧘 ኅ⇓ߩࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯⵬⛎ߩߚ߼ߩ’⨲߿㘶↪᳓ߩᰳਲߦ⥋ࠆ⥄ὼ᧦ઙߪ᭽ޘߢ޽ࠆ ߚ߼ߦ㧘ߘࠇߦᔕߓߡ࠱࠼ߩ⒳㘃ߪᄙ᭽ߦಽ㘃ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߚߣ߃߫㧘౻ᤐቄߩ ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦࠃߞߡ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼ࠍขࠅ਄ߍߡ߽એਅߩ4 ⒳㘃߇᜼ߍࠄࠇࠆ㧚 Ԙ ޟ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔⊕޿ἴኂ㧕㧦ᄙ㔐ߦࠃࠅᬀ↢߇ᷓ޿㔐ߢⷒࠊࠇ㧘ኅ⇓߇ណ 㘩࿎㔍ߣߥࠆߎߣߢ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧚Ⓧ㔐ߦࠃࠅ৻㕙߇⊕ߊߥࠆߎߣ߆ࠄߎߩࠃ ߁ߦ๭߫ࠇࠆ㧔ዊᴛ㧘1995㧕㧚 ԙ ޟࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ㨯࠱࠼ޠ㧔ኙ޿ἴኂ㧕㧦ᭂᐲߦኙ಄ߥᣣ߇㐳ᦼ⛮⛯ߔࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ⊒ ↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧔ዊችጊ㧘2005㧕㧚 Ԛ ޟࠪ㧙࡞ࠟ࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔㘑ኂ㧕㧦㐳ᦼ㑆ߩ᥸㘑㧔፲㧕ߦࠃࠅ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼㧔የፒ㧘 2003㧕㧚 ԛ ޟࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ޠ㧔㤥޿ἴኂ㧕㧦౻ᤐቄߩή㒠㔐߇ේ࿃ߢ᳓ਇ⿷ߦࠃࠅ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱ ࠼㧚Ⓧ㔐߇ߥߊ⴫࿯߇㤥ߊ⷗߃ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄߎߩࠃ߁ߦ⸒ࠊࠇࠆ㧔ዊᴛ㧘1995㧕㧚 ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣ࠱࠼ⵍኂ⊒↢ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍಽᨆߒߚ⎇ⓥߪᢙᄙߊሽ࿷ߒ(Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren㧘2001㧧᫪᳗࡮◉↰, 2003㧧JIRIGALA ╬㧘2013㧕㧘ᐢᄢߥࡕࡦࠧ࡞ ߩฦ࿾ၞߢ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼ߩ⒳㘃ߣ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣߩ㑐ଥߪᄙ᭽ߢ޽ࠆ㧚ߚߣ߃߫㧘

(35)

㧞㧥 Natsagdorj ࠄ㧔2001㧕ߪᄐቄߩ᳇᷷ߣ㒠㔎㊂㧘౻ቄߩ᳇᷷ߢ⴫ߒߚࠗࡦ࠺࠶ࠢࠬ ߣኅ⇓✚㗡ᢙߣߩ㑐ଥࠍᬌ⸛ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚ㧘᫪᳗࡮◉↰㧔2005㧕ߪ㧘᳖㔐ゲ㧘 ’⨲ゲ㧘ᄤ୥ゲߩਃᰴర࠳ࠗࠕࠣ࡜ࡓߦࠃߞߡ࠱࠼ߩ⒳㘃ߣ⊒↢ⷐ࿃ߩ㑐ଥࠍቯ ᕈ⊛ߦᢛℂߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߐࠄߦ㧘JIRIGALA ╬㧔2013㧕ߪ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖᧲ㇱߩ࠼࡞ ࡁ࠼⋵ࠍኻ⽎ߦߒߡ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍಽᨆߒߚ⚿ᨐ㧘౻ቄᄙ㔐 ᧦ઙਅߢ㒠㔐㊂ߣᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ⋧㑐߇᣿⍎ߦߥࠅ㧘ᄐቄዋ㔎߅ࠃ߮౻ቄૐ᷷ߩ᧦ઙ ߇㊀ߥࠆߣ㧘ߐࠄߦ௑ะ߇㗼⪺ߣߥࠆߎߣ߇᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚 ৻ᣇ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢ㘺⢒ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆኅ⇓ߪ㚸㚭㧔࡜ࠢ࠳㧕㧘㚍㧘‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠㧔ࡗ

ࠡ㧕ߦࠃࠅ᭴ᚑߐࠇ㧘✚⒓ߒߡ੖⒳⇓㧔tavon hoshiyo mal㧕ߣ๭ࠎߢ޿ࠆ㧔↭ᔮട

↭㧘1996㧕㧚ߎࠇࠄߪ޿ߕࠇ߽㗎ᒝߢ޽ࠅ㧘ㆇേ⢻ജ߇㜞ߊ㧘☻㘩ߦ⠴߃ࠆߣ޿߁ ․ᓽࠍᜬߞߡ߅ࠅ㧘߆ߟ㘩⡺߿੃⵾ຠ㧘Ძ⊹ߣ޿ߞߚⶄᢙߩ↪ㅜߦ↪޿ࠆߎߣ߇ ߢ߈㧘෩ߒ޿᳇⽎᧦ઙਅߢߩㆆ’ߦㆡߒߡ޿ࠆ㧔⾽㇊㧘2007㧕㧚ઁᣇ㧘↢ℂ⊛․ᓽ㧘 ណ㘩⠌ᘠ㧘⒖േ⢻ജߪ੖⒳⇓ߏߣߦ⇣ߥࠅ㧘⥄ὼⅣႺ߿᳇⽎ᄌേ߳ߩㆡᔕᕈ߽⇣ ߥࠆߣ߽⸒ࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߘߩߚ߼㧘ᄙ᭽ߥ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦࠃࠅ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼ߩ⒳㘃߿ ᒝᐲ߽੖⒳⇓ߏߣߦ⇣ߥࠅ㧘ⵍኂߩ⒟ᐲ߽ᄢ߈ߊᄌൻߔࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄ ࠇࠆ㧚 Tuvaansuren (1986)ߪ㧘㔐ࠍ㒰ߌߡ⨲ࠍ㘩߻⢻ജߩ㆑޿߆ࠄ㧘ኅ⇓ߩਛߢ߽かߢ㔐 ࠍ߆ߊߎߣߩߢ߈ߥ޿‐߇ᦨ߽Ⓧ㔐ߦᒙ޿ߎߣࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚߹ߚ㧘 Natsagdorj ╬㧔2004㧕ߪዊဳߩጊ⟠࡮⟠ࠃࠅᄢဳኅ⇓ߩ‐㧘㚍ߩᣇ߇ᄤ୥ߩᓇ㗀 ࠍฃߌ߿ߔ޿਄㧘ᄐቄߩᐓ߫ߟߦᒙ޿ߎߣࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘ߎࠇࠄ ੖⒳⇓ߦ߅ߌࠆ᳇⽎ⵍኂߩᓇ㗀ⷐ࿃ߦߟ޿ߡߪᧂ⸃᣿ߥㇱಽ߇ᄙ޿㧚 ߘߎߢ㧘ᧄ⺰ᢥߢߪ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߡ㧘੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣ ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩ㑐ଥࠍ⛔⸘⸃ᨆߔࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ㧘᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᄌേߦࠃࠆኅ⇓ⵍኂߩ⋧ ㆑ࠍ੖⒳⇓ߩ․ᕈ߆ࠄ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߔࠆߎߣࠍ⋡⊛ߦߒߚ㧚

(36)

㧟㧜㧞㧚ኻ⽎࿾඙ߩ᭎ⷐ ኻ⽎࿾඙ߩ࿾ℂ⊛᧦ઙ ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩᦨ᧲┵ߦ૏⟎ߒ㧘㓞ធߔࠆࡋࡦ࠹ࠖ⋵߅ࠃ߮ࠬࡈ ࡃ࡯࠻࡞⋵ߣߣ߽ߦࡕࡦࠧ࡞ߩ᧲ㇱ࿾ၞࠍ᭴ᚑߔࠆ㧔Fig.ΥΥ-1㧕㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ㧘 㕙Ⓧ12.4 ਁ km2_㧘ੱญ_{7.5 ਁੱ㧘ኅ⇓㗡ᢙ 145 ਁ㗡㧔2009 ᐕ㧕ࠍ᦭ߔࠆ㧚ᮡ㜞 600} 㨪800m ߩ⿠ફߩዋߥ޿ᐔේࠍߥߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘ᐔဋᮡ㜞߇ 1,500m ࠍ⿥߃ࠆࡕࡦࠧ࡞ ࿖ߩਛߢߪૐᮡ㜞ߦ૏⟎ߔࠆ㧚ߘߩߚ߼㧘ᐔဋ᳇᷷ߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ਛർㇱߣᲧセߒ ߡ2°C ⒟ᐲ㜞ߊ㧘ᐕ㒠᳓㊂ߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞ධㇱߩࠧࡆ࿾ᣇߣᲧߴߡ߽ᄙ޿㧔JIRIGALA ╬㧘2013㧕㧚ߎߩࠃ߁ߦᒰ⋵ߪᲧセ⊛᳇⽎᧦ઙߦᕺ߹ࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄᐢၞߦᐢ߇ ࠆ⨲ේࠍ೑↪ߒߡવ⛔⊛ߦ⟠߿㚍ߩ᡼’߇⋓ࠎߢ޽ࠆ㧔Templer et al., 1993㧕㧚એ਄㧘 ᧄ⋵ߪ࿾ᒻߩ⿠ફ߇ዋߥߊ࿾඙ౝߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙ߇߶߷ဋ৻ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ㧘߹ߚ㧘એ೨ ߆ࠄㆆ’߇ߐ߆ࠎߦⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᐕ㑆ᄌേߣኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫߣ ߩ㑐ଥࠍ⸃ᨆߔࠆߩߦㆡߒߡ޿ࠆߣ್ᢿߒ㧘ኻ⽎࿾඙ߣߒߚ㧚

(37)

㧟㧝

Fig.ΥΥ-1 ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߩ૏⟎ߣࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩᮡ㜞ಽᏓ㧚

ᮡ㜞ߪGTOPO30㧔Gesch et al., 1999㧕㧘ⴕ᡽⇇ߪ Global Administrative Area

㧔http://www.gadm.org/㧕ࠍ↪޿ߡ૞ᚑߒߚ㧚

The location of Dornod prefecture and the elevation of Mongolia. GTOPO30 (Gesch et al., 1999) was utilized for creating elevation distribution and administrative boundaries are drawn based on Global Administrative Area dataset

(http://www.gadm.org/).

(38)

㧟㧞

ኻ⽎࿾඙ߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙ

ᧄ⺰ᢥߦ߅ߌࠆ⸃ᨆኻ⽎ᦼ㑆ߪ1969 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2010 ᐕ߹ߢߩ 42 ᐕ㑆ߢ޽ࠆ㧚᳇⽎

࠺࡯࠲ߦߪCRUTS3.1㧔University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, accessed

2013.2.1㧕ࠍ↪޿ߚ㧚CRUTS3.1 ߪ㧘࿾਄᷹ⷰ࠺࡯࠲ߦ߽ߣߠ߈⛔⸘⊛ߥౝᝌࠍᣉ ߒߡ▚಴ߐࠇߚ᦬න૏ߩో⃿㐳ᦼ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲࠮࠶࠻ߢ㧔Mitchel and Jones㧘2005㧕㧘

ⓨ㑆⸃௝ᐲ0.5°ߢ 1901㨪2009 ᐕߩᦼ㑆ߢᢛ஻ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚 ਄⸥࠺࡯࠲࠮࠶࠻߆ࠄ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ฽߹ࠇࠆ 66 ࿾ὐߩ᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷߅ࠃ߮᦬㒠 ᳓㊂ࠍ᛽಴ߒ㧘▚ⴚᐔဋ୯ࠍ᳞߼ߡ⋵ߩઍ⴫୯ߣߒߚ㧚߹ߚ㧘↟ᄢߥ࠱࠼ⵍኂ߇ ⊒↢ߒߚ2010 ᐕߩ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲ߪ CRUTS3.1 ߦߥ޿ߚ߼㧘࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ౝ 14 ࿾ὐߩ ᳇⽎᷹ⷰᚲߦ߅ߌࠆታ᷹୯ߩᐔဋ୯ࠍ↪޿ߚ㧚ߥ߅㧘2010 ᐕߩ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲ߪࡕࡦ ࠧ࡞⑼ቇࠕࠞ࠺ࡒ࡯ឭଏߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ⸃ᨆᦼ㑆ਛߩ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲ߩᐔဋ୯(m)߅ࠃ߮ᮡḰ஍Ꮕ(V)ࠍ Fig.ΥΥ-2 ߅ࠃ߮ Fig. Υ-3 ߦ␜ߔ㧚ᐕᐔဋ᳇᷷ߪ 0.32°C ߣ಄ᶭߥ᳇୥ߢ޽ࠆ㧚᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷ߩቄ▵ᄌേࠍ ⷗ࠆߣ㧘7 ᦬ߦᦨ㜞᳇᷷ 20.3°C㧘1 ᦬ߦᦨૐ᳇᷷-22.1°C ߣߥࠅ㧘ᐕセᏅߪ 42.4°C ߣᭂ߼ߡᄢ߈ߊ㧘ౖဳ⊛ߥౝ㒽ᕈ᳇୥ߩ․ᓽࠍ␜ߔ㧚ᐕ㑆㒠᳓㊂ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ 266.4mm ߣዋ㔎ߢ㧘ᮡḰ஍Ꮕ 97.6mm㧘ᄌേଥᢙ 34%ߣᐕᄌേ߇ᄢ߈޿ߣ⸒߃ࠆ㧚

(39)

㧟㧟

Fig.ΥΥ-2 ᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷ߩᐔဋ୯(m)ߣᮡḰ஍Ꮕ(V)㧔1969-2010 ᐕ㧕 Mean and standard deviation of monthly average air temperature

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 ᦬ ᐔ ဋ ᳇ ᷷ 䐳 ͠ 䐴 m+σ m-σ m

(40)

㧟㧠

Fig.ΥΥ3 ᦬㒠᳓㊂ߩᐔဋ୯(m)ߣᮡḰ஍Ꮕ(V)㧔1969-2010 ᐕ㧕 Mean and standard deviation of monthly precipitation

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ᦬ ᐔ ဋ 㒠 ᳓ ㊂䐳㨙㨙㧛 ᦬ 䐴 m+σ m-σ m

(41)

㧟㧡 ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ㐳ᦼᄌേ ኅ⇓ᢙߪ㧘⨲ේᬀ↢ߩᚑ㐳ࠍᏀฝߔࠆᄐቄ㒠㔎㊂߿౻ᤐቄߩ⽕㔐ૐ᷷ߥߤߩኅ ⇓ߩᄢ㊂ᱫߦ߆߆ࠊࠆ࠱࠼ߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߦᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡᐕޘᄌേߒߥ߇ࠄ㧘␠ળ⚻ ᷣ᧦ઙߩᄌൻߦᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ㐳ᦼᄌേ߽ߔࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚ߘߎߢ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ ߅ࠃ߮࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߦ߅ߌࠆ␠ળ⚻ᷣ᧦ઙ߅ࠃ߮᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩᄌേߣ㑐ㅪߐߖߥ߇ࠄ㧘 ฦኅ⇓ߩ㐳ᦼᄌേ․ᕈࠍቯᕈ⊛ߦ⠨ኤߒߚ㧚↪޿ߚ࠺࡯࠲ߪ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞⑼ቇࠕࠞ ࠺ࡒ࡯ࠃࠅឭଏࠍฃߌߚ1969㨪2010 ᐕߩᦼ㑆ߩ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫᢙߢ޽ࠆ㧚߹ ߚ㧘ᢣᱫᢙߪኅ⇓㗡ᢙߦࠃࠅᄌൻߔࠆߚ߼㧘೨ᐕߩኅ⇓㗡ᢙߦኻߔࠆᒰ⹥ᐕߩᢣ ᱫᢙߩഀวߢ޽ࠆᢣᱫ₸ࠍᜰᮡߣߒߡ↪޿ߚ㧚㚸㚭 1969 ᐕ߆ࠄ 1981 ᐕߩᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ✚㗡ᢙߪ 16.4 ජ㗡೨ᓟߢᄌേߒߡ޿ߚ߇㧘 એ㒠㧘✭߿߆ߥᷫዋ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇ㧘ㄭᐕߩ10 ᐕ㑆ߪ 6.2 ජ㗡೨ᓟ㧔੖⒳⇓✚㗡ᢙ ߩ0.5%㧕ߢ቟ቯߒߡ޿ࠆ㧔Fig.Υ-4(a)㧕㧚߹ߚ㧘ోᦼ㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆᢣᱫ₸ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ 6.15%㧘ᮡḰ஍Ꮕߪ 3.46%ߢ޽ࠆ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘1996 ᐕ߹ߢߩᢣᱫ₸ߩᐔဋ୯߇ 8.19% ߢ޽ࠆߩߦኻߒߡ㧘ߘࠇએ㒠ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ2.21%ߣ⪺ߒߊᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚㚸㚭ߪ㧘⡺㧘੃㧘⊹ޔᲫߥߤߩ↢↥એᄖߦ㧘⩄‛ㆇ៝↪ߣߒߡ࠻࡜࠶ࠢઍࠊࠅ ߦ೑↪ߐࠇߡ߈ߚ߇㧘1980 ᐕઍ߆ࠄࡕࡦࠧ࡞ో࿖ߦ߅޿ߡᯏ᪾ൻ߇ㅴߺ㧘࠻࡜࠶ ࠢߛߌߢ1995 ᐕߩ 4.9 ජบ߆ࠄ 2001 ᐕߩ 17.6 ජบ߹ߢჇടߒߚ. ߎߩࠃ߁ߥ⥄ േゞߩ᥉෸ߦߣ߽ߥ޿㧘㚸㚭ߩ೑↪߇ᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇㗡ᢙᷫዋߩේ࿃ߣߒߡ ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞࡮࠰ࠗ࡞ࠞࡓ2004㧕㧚߹ߚ㧘1991 ᐕએ㒠ߩᏒ႐⚻ᷣൻߦ ߣ߽ߥ߁ኅ⇓⑳᦭ൻߦࠃࠅ㧘㘺⢒▤ℂ߇ⴕ߈ዯߊࠃ߁ߦߥߞߚߎߣߦട߃㧘ㄭᐕ ߩᄐቄߩ᳇᷷਄᣹߅ࠃ߮ዋ㔎௑ะ߇㧘ᢣᱫ₸ૐਅߩේ࿃ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘

(42)

㧟㧢 1980 ᐕ 4 ᦬ 15㨪20 ᣣߦࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖᧲ㇱ࿾ၞߦᏂᄢߥ᥸㘑㔐߇⊒↢ߒ㧔Natsagdorj, 2009㧕㧘ઁߩኅ⇓ห᭽㧘ᢣᱫ₸߇ 10.4%ߣㆊ෰ᦨᄢࠍ⸥㍳ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚㚍 2000 ᐕ߹ߢߩ㚍ߩ✚㗡ᢙߪ 95 ජ㗡೨ᓟߢ቟ቯߒߡ޿ߚ߇㧘ߘࠇએ㒠Ⴧടߔࠆ ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇ㧘ㄭᐕߪ⚂140 ජ㗡೨ᓟ㧘੖⒳⇓✚㗡ᢙߦභ߼ࠆഀว 12.2%ߦ㆐ߒ ߡ޿ࠆ㧔Fig.䜕䜕-4(b)㧕㧚ోᦼ㑆ߩᢣᱫ₸ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ 4.05%㧘ᮡḰ஍Ꮕߪ 4.01%ߢ޽ ࠅ㧘੖⒳⇓ߩਛߢᦨ߽ᢣᱫ₸߇ૐߊ㧘᳇⽎ἴኂߦᒝ޿ኅ⇓ߢ޽ࠆ㧚߹ߚ㚸㚭ߣห ᭽㧘1996 ᐕ߹ߢߩᢣᱫ₸ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ 5.34%ߢ޽ߞߚߩߦኻߒߡ㧘ߘࠇએ㒠ߩᐔဋ ୯ߪ1.55%ߣ⪺ߒߊᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚 1991 ᐕએ㒠ߩ⑳᦭⽷↥ߩዉ౉߿Ꮢ႐⚻ᷣߩផㅴߦࠃࠅ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢߪኾᬺ’ ᳃ᢙ߇Ⴧ߃㧘1990 ᐕߩ 14 ਁ 7 ජੱ߆ࠄ 2000 ᐕߩ 42 ਁ 1 ජੱ߹ߢ 3 ୚ㄭߊჇട ߒߚ㧚ߎߩኾᬺ’᳃ߩჇടߪኅ⇓✚㗡ᢙߩჇടࠍ᜗߈㧘’⇓ᬺߩਥߥ↢↥ᚻᲑߣ ߒߡ㚍ߩᓎഀ߽Ⴧടߒߚ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩਛߢ߽㚍ߩᦨㆡ࿾ߢ޽ࠅ, 㚍ߩ㘺⢒߇⋓ࠎߦߥߞߡ㗡ᢙ߇Ⴧ߃ߚ߽ߩߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘೨ㅀߩᏂᄢߥ᥸ 㘑㔐߇⊒↢ߒߚ1980 ᐕߦᢣᱫ₸߇ 26.1%ߣ੖⒳⇓ߩਛߢ߽ᦨᄢߣߥߞߡ߅ࠅ㧘ኙ ಄Ⓧ㔐ߦᒝ޿৻ᣇߢ㧘᥸㘑㔐߿ᒝ㘑ߦᒙ޿ኅ⇓ߢ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚 ‐ ోᦼ㑆ߩ✚㗡ᢙߩᐔဋ୯ߪ116 ජ㗡೨ᓟߢ቟ቯߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘ઁߩኅ⇓ߢߺࠄࠇࠆ ࠃ߁ߥ㐳ᦼᄌേ߇ߥ޿㧚2010 ᐕᤨὐߩ੖⒳⇓✚㗡ᢙߦභ߼ࠆഀวߪ 9.7%ߢ޽ࠆ 㧔Fig.Υ-4(c)㧕㧚߹ߚ㧘ోᦼ㑆ߩᢣᱫ₸ߩᐔဋ୯ߪ 5.43%㧘ᮡḰ஍Ꮕߪ 4.87%ߢ޽ ࠅ㧘1980 ᐕࠍࡇ࡯ࠢߦ✭߿߆ߥᷫዋ௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘ㄭᐕ㧘2001 ᐕߣ

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㧟㧣 2010 ᐕߪ⓭⊒⊛ߦᢣᱫ₸߇ 20%ࠍ⿥߃㧘ᷓೞߥ࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߒߡ޿ߚߣផኤߐࠇࠆ㧚 ․ߦ2000 ᐕ 12 ᦬ߪ㧘෩ߒ޿ኙߐߣߣ߽ߦ㗫❥ߥᄢ็㔐ߦ⷗⥰ࠊࠇ㧘᡼’࿾ࠍၒ ߼ዧߊߔࠃ߁ߥⓍ㔐ߦࠃߞߡ’⨲࿾ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߥߊߥࠅ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞ ╬㧘2010㧕㧘ߘߩ⚿ᨐ 2001 ᐕߩᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚 ⟠ ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ⟠ߩ㘺⢒ߦㆡߒߡ߅ࠅ㧘1987 ᐕ߹ߢߩ✚㗡ᢙߪ 750 ජ㗡೨ᓟߢផ ⒖ߒ㧘੖⒳⇓✚㗡ᢙߦභ߼ࠆഀวߪ72.3%ߢ޽ߞߚ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘ߘߩᓟᷫዋߒ⛯ߌ㧘 1996 ᐕߦߪ 314 ජ㗡߹ߢᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆ㧔Fig.ΥΥ4(d)㧕㧚߹ߚ㧘ోᦼ㑆ߩᢣᱫ₸ߩ ᐔဋ୯ߪ5.28%㧘ᮡḰ஍Ꮕߪ 4.00%ߢ޽ࠅ㧘1980 ᐕࠍࡇ࡯ࠢߦ✭߿߆ߥᷫዋ௑ะ ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘2009 ᐕߦ 8.6%㧘2010 ᐕߦߪ 21.3%ߣ⓭⊒⊛ߦᄢ߈ߊߥࠅ㧘 ᷓೞߥ࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߒߡ޿ߚߣផኤߐࠇࠆ㧚 ࠦࡔࠦࡦߩ⸃૕߿⑳᦭⽷↥೙ߩዉ౉ߥߤᕆỗߥᏒ႐⚻ᷣൻ߇൘߼ࠄࠇ, 1990 ᐕ એ㒠ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢߪ৻ᤨᦼ㧘ᐕ₸ 400㧑ࠍ਄࿁ࠆࠗࡦࡈ࡟߇⊒↢ߒ㧘ᷓೞߥ⽺࿎ ൻ߇↢ߓߚ. ⑳᦭ൻߦࠃߞߡኅ⇓ࠍ㈩ಽߐࠇߚ㕖ኾᬺ’᳃ߚߜߪ㧘ኅ⇓ࠍߔߋߦ ዼᲕߒߡ⽼ᄁߔࠆߣ޿߁ኻᔕࠍߣߞߚ㧚ߎ߁ߒߚ⑳᦭ൻ⋥ᓟߩᷙੂ߇ኅ⇓㗡ᢙᷫ ዋߩⷐ࿃ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞࡮࠰ࠗ࡞ࠞࡓ㧘2004㧕. ਥߥ㘩ᢱଏ⛎Ḯߢ޽ ࠆ⟠ߩዼᲕ₸ࠍో࿖▸࿐ߢ⷗ࠆߣ1991-1996 ᐕ߹ߢᐔဋߒߡ 35.5%ߣ㜞ߊ, ߘߩ ᓟ, 28.8%೨ᓟߦ቟ቯߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߩ႐ว߽ో࿖ߣหߓߢ㧘ߘߩᓟߦ৻ ォߒߡ⟠ߩ✚㗡ᢙ߇Ⴧടߒ⛯ߌ㧘2009 ᐕߦߪ 704 ජ㗡ߦ㆐ߒ, 1969-1990 ᐕߩᐔဋ ߹ߢ࿁ᓳߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚 ጊ⟠

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㧟㧤 1991 ᐕ߹ߢߩ✚㗡ᢙߪ 52 ජ㗡೨ᓟߢផ⒖ߒ㧘੖⒳⇓✚㗡ᢙߩ 5.2%ࠍභ߼ࠆߦ ㆊ߉ߥ߆ߞߚ߇㧘ߘߩᓟߪᐕޘჇടߒ㧘2008 ᐕߦߪ 512 ජ㗡ߦ㆐ߒ㧘੖⒳⇓✚㗡 ᢙߩ 34.6%ࠍභ߼ࠆࠃ߁ߦߥߞߚ㧔Fig.ΥΥ-4(e)㧕㧚ోᦼ㑆ߩᐔဋᢣᱫ₸ߪ 6.36%㧘 ᮡḰ஍Ꮕ 5.13%ߣ੖⒳⇓ߩਛߢ߽ᐔဋ࡮ᮡḰ஍Ꮕߣ߽ߦᦨᄢߢ㧘ᒰ࿾඙ߦ߅޿ߡ ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌ߿ߔ޿ኅ⇓ߢ޽ࠆߣ⸒߃ࠆ㧚⟠ߣห᭽㧘1980 ᐕࠍࡇ࡯ࠢߦ ✭߿߆ߥᷫዋ௑ะࠍ␜ߔ߇㧘2009 ᐕ㧘2010 ᐕߦߪߘࠇߙࠇ 13.9%㧘26.8%ߣ⓭⊒ ⊛ߦᄢ߈ߊߥࠅ㧘ᷓೞߥ࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߒߡ޿ߚߣផኤߐࠇࠆ㧚ㄭᐕߩᕆỗߥ㗡ᢙჇടߪ㧘ࠞࠪࡒࡗᲫߩ࿖㓙Ꮢ႐ଔᩰߢᕆㅦߦ਄᣹ߒߚߎߣߦ ⿠࿃ߔࠆ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞㧘2004㧧Saizen, 2010㧕㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘2009 ᐕߣ 2010 ᐕߩ↟ᄢߥ ࠱࠼ⵍኂߦ⷗⥰ࠊࠇ2010 ᐕߦߪ 312 ජ㗡߹ߢᷫዋߒߚ㧚ጊ⟠ࠍή೙㒢ߦჇ߿ߔߎ ߣߪ੖⒳⇓ߩ᭴ᚑࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍ፣ߔߛߌߢߪߥߊ㧘ߘߩㆊ᡼’ߦࠃߞߡ’⨲࿾߇ഠ ൻߒ᳇⽎ᄌേߦࠃࠆ࠱࠼ⵍኂࠍฃߌ߿ߔߊߥࠆߎߣ߇ᜰ៰ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔Ḋ, 2004㧕㧚

(45)

㧟㧥

Fig.ΥΥ-4(a) ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⚻ᐕᄌൻ

Long term trend of total number and mortality of five livestock

Fig.Υ-4(b) ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⚻ᐕᄌൻ

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(46)

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Fig.ΥΥ-4(c) ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⚻ᐕᄌൻ

Fig.Υ-4(d) ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⚻ᐕᄌൻ

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(47)

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Fig.ΥΥ-4(e) ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⚻ᐕᄌൻ

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(48)

㧠㧞 ߹ߣ߼ ੖⒳⇓ߩฦ㗡ᢙߪ㧘Ꮢ႐⚻ᷣൻ߿↪ㅜߩᄌൻߣ޿ߞߚ␠ળ⚻ᷣ᧦ઙߩᄌൻߦኻ ᔕߒߡ㐳ᦼᄌേߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇␜߼ߐࠇߚ㧚ઁᣇ㧘ᢣᱫ₸ߪ㐳ᦼᄌേߒߥ߇ࠄ߽㧘 ᐕޘᄌേ߽ᄢ߈ߊ㧘Ფᐕߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦᒝߊᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ޿ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ㧚Table Υ Υ-1 ߪ㧘੖⒳⇓㑆ߩᢣᱫ₸ߦߟ޿ߡ⋧੕⋧㑐ଥᢙࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ㧚⟠ߣጊ⟠ ߩᢣᱫ₸ߩ㑆ߦߪ㧘⋧㑐ଥᢙ0.95 ߣᭂ߼ߡᒝ޿⋧㑐㑐ଥ߇⹺߼ࠄࠇ㧘‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ ⟠㑆ߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙߪ0.64 એ਄ߣᲧセ⊛㜞ߊ㧘ߎࠇࠄ 3 ⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߦᓇ㗀ߔࠆ᳇⽎ⷐ ࿃߇㘃ૃߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆ㧚߹ߚ㧘㚸㚭ߪ㚍ߣ⋧㑐ଥᢙ߇⧯ᐓ㜞޿㧔⋧ 㑐ଥᢙ=0.65㧕߽ߩߩ㧘ઁߩ‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠ߣߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙߪ૛ࠅ㜞ߊߥߊ㧘ᢣᱫ₸ߦ ᓇ㗀ߔࠆ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃߇⇣ߥࠆߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆ㧚

(49)

㧠㧟

Table ΥΥ-1 ੖੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆ⋧㑐ଥᢙ The correlation coefficient between mortality rates of five livestock

㚸㚭㚍 ‐ ⟠ ጊ⟠ 㚸㚭 1.00 0.67 0.23 0.48 0.36 㚍 ― 1.00 0.41 0.67 0.56 ‐ ― ― 1.00 0.72 0.64 ⟠ ― ― ― 1.00 0.95 ጊ⟠ ― ― ― ― 1.00

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㧠㧠 ᳇⽎᧦ઙߣᢣᱫ₸ߩ⋧㑐⸃ᨆ ੖⒳⇓ߏߣߩ⋧㑐⸃ᨆ ᢣᱫᢙߪᲤᐕ12 ᦬ਛᣨߦ㓸⸘ߐࠇࠆ߇㧘ㅢᏱ㧘ኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫߪหᐕߩ 1 ᦬߆ࠄ 4 ᦬߹ߢߩ౻ᤐቄߦ㓸ਛߒ㧘⋥ធߦߪᒰ⹥ᐕߩ౻ቄ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆ㧚ߐࠄ ߦ㧘೨ᐕߩᄐߣ⑺ߩ᳇᷷߿㒠᳓㊂ߦࠃࠅ⨲ේ’⨲ߩᚑ㐳߇⇣ߥࠅ㧘౻೨ߩኅ⇓ߩ ૕ജߦ߽ᄢ߈ߥ㆑޿߇↢ߓࠆߚ߼㧔◉↰㓷ੱ࡮᫪᳗↱♿㧘2005㧧◉↰㓷ੱ㧘2007㧕㧘 ૕ജߩᒙ޿ኅ⇓߇౻ᤐᦼࠍਸ਼ࠅ⿧߃ࠄࠇߕ㧘ᦨ߽ᒙߞߚ߽ߩ߆ࠄ㗅ߦᢣᱫߔࠆ㧚 ߔߥࠊߜ㧘ᒰ⹥ᐕߩᢣᱫᢙߪ೨ᐕࠍ฽߼ߚ2 ᐕ㑆ߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦᓇ㗀ߐࠇࠆߎߣ߇ ੍ᗐߐࠇࠆ㧚 ߘߎߢ㧘1970㨪2010 ᐕߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ↪޿ߡᐔဋ୯߇ 0㧘ᮡḰ஍Ꮕ߇㧝ߦߥࠆࠃ߁ ߦᱜⷙൻߒߚᢣᱫ₸ࠍ⁛┙ᄌᢙ㧘ᒰᐕߣ೨ᐕߦ߅ߌࠆᲤ᦬ߩᱜⷙൻߒߚ᦬㒠᳓㊂ ߣ᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷ࠍ⺑᣿ᄌᢙߣߒߡන⋧㑐⸃ᨆࠍⴕ޿㧘ฦ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙࠍ ᳞߼ߚ㧚ߘߩ⚿ᨐࠍኅ⇓ߏߣߦFig.ΥΥ5 ߦ␜ߔ㧚ߥ߅㧘ฦ᦬ߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩᮡḰ࿁ Ꮻଥᢙࠍࡊࡠ࠶࠻㧔㒠᳓㧦٤㧘᳇᷷㧦غ㧕ߢ⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚߹ߚ㧘ฦ᦬ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻ ଥᢙߦߟ޿ߡߪ㧘F ᬌቯߢ p㧨0.05 ߢ޽ࠆ႐วߪ㧘㤥ᛮ߈ߢ␜ߒߚ㧚 ੖⒳⇓ߏߣߩ⚿ᨐߣ⠨ኤ 㚸㚭 Fig.䜕-5(a)ߦ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦ㧘ᢣᱫ₸ߪ㧘೨ᐕߣᒰᐕߩ 6㨪9 ᦬㧔એਅ㧘ଢቱ⊛ߦߎ ߩᦼ㑆ࠍᄐቄߣ๭߱㧕ߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦᒝߊᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆ㧚೨ᐕߣᒰᐕ ߩ㒠㔎㊂ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙߪ⚂0.35 ߣߥࠅ㧘ᄐቄ㒠㔎㊂߇ᄙߊߥࠆߣᢣᱫ₸߇Ⴧട ߔࠆ௑ะࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚߹ߚ㧘ᄐቄߩ᳇᷷ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙߪ⚂-0.61 ࠍ␜ߒ㧘ᄐቄ

(51)

㧠㧡 ߩ᳇᷷ૐਅߦࠃࠅᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥࠆ௑ะ߽ߺࠄࠇࠆ㧚৻ᣇ㧘11㨪3 ᦬㧔એਅ㧘ଢ ቱ⊛ߦߎߩᦼ㑆ࠍ౻ቄߣࠃ߱㧕ߦ߅ߌࠆ㒠᳓㊂߿᳇᷷ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙߩ⛘ኻ୯ߪ ዊߐߊ㧘౻ቄߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᓇ㗀ߪዊߐ޿㧚㚍 Fig.ΥΥ-5(b)ߦ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦ㧘೨ᐕᄐቄ߅ࠃ߮ᒰᐕᄐቄߩ᳇᷷ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙ߇㧘 ߘࠇߙࠇ-0.43㧘-0.32 ߣ㧘ᄐቄߩ᳇᷷߇ૐߊߥࠆߣᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥࠆ௑ะ߇޽ࠆޕ ߹ߚ㧘ᒰᐕࠃࠅ೨ᐕߩᄐቄߩᓇ㗀߇ᄢ߈޿ߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘಄ᄐࠍㄫ߃ࠆߣ㚍ߩஜᐽ⁁ ᘒ߇ᖡൻߒ㧘ߘߩᐕߩ౻߆ࠄ⠉ᐕߩᤐߦ߆ߌߡᢣᱫߔࠆߣផኤߐࠇࠆ㧚㚍ߪ৻⥸ ⊛ߦ㧘ᄐߦߥࠆߣ⍴Ძߦᛮߌᦧࠊࠅ⊹ਅ⢽⢌ࠍᷫࠄߔߩߢ㧘ߎߩᤨᦼߩ಄㔎ߦࠃ ߞߡ૕⺞ࠍ፣ߒ߿ߔߊ㧘ߘߩᓟߩ෩ߒ޿౻ᤐቄࠍਸ਼ࠅ⿧߃ࠄࠇߥ޿߽ߩ߇Ⴧ߃ࠆ ߣ⸒ࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚৻ᣇ㧘ᄐቄ㒠᳓㊂㧘౻ቄ᳇᷷㧘߅ࠃ߮౻ቄ㒠᳓㊂ߩᓇ㗀ߪ߶ߣ ࠎߤ⹺߼ࠄࠇߥ޿߇㧘ᒰᐕ4 ᦬ߩ᳇᷷߇ૐߊߥࠆߣᢣᱫ₸߇㗼⪺ߦ㜞ߊߥࠆ௑ะ ߇․ᓽ⊛ߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ‐ Fig.䜕-5(c)ߦ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦ㧘೨ᐕ 11 ᦬߆ࠄ 4 ᦬߹ߢߩ౻ቄߩ᳇᷷ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙ ߇-0.28㨪-0.39㧘ᒰᐕ 3 ᦬߿ 12 ᦬ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙ߇ߘࠇߙࠇ 0.61㧘0.58 ߣߥߞߡ߅ࠅ㧘౻ቄߩⓍ㔐㊂߇ᄙߊ㧘߹ߚ᳇᷷߇ૐߊߥࠆ߶ߤ㧘ᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥ ࠆ㧚ߐࠄߦ㧘ᄐቄߩ᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᓇ㗀ߪዊߐ޿௑ะ߇⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚৻ᣇ㧘ᒰᐕ4 ᦬ߣ 10 ᦬ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙ߇೨ᓟߩ᦬ߣਇㅪ⛯ߦ⪺ߒߊૐਅߒ㧘ߎߩᤨᦼߩ㒠 ᳓㊂߇ዋߥ޿ߣᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥࠆ௑ะࠍ⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚

(52)

㧠㧢 ⟠߅ࠃ߮ጊ⟠ Fig.ΥΥ-5(d)߅ࠃ߮ Fig.䜕䎐5(e)ߦ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦ㧘⟠߅ࠃ߮ጊ⟠ߪࠃߊૃߚ௑ะࠍᜬ ߟ㧚ᒰᐕ3 ᦬ߣ 12 ᦬ߦ߅ߌࠆ㒠᳓㊂ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙ߇ 0.61㨪0.63 ߣߥߞߡ߅ࠅ㧘 ౻ቄߩⓍ㔐㊂߇ᄙ޿߶ߤᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥࠆ௑ะ߇㗼⪺ߦ⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚ߐࠄߦ㧘㚍ߣ ห᭽㧘ᒰᐕ4 ᦬ߩ᳇᷷ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙ߇-0.53㨪-0.59 ߣᭂ߼ߡૐߊߥߞߡ߅ࠅ㧘4 ᦬ߩ᳇᷷߇ૐߊߥࠆߣᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥࠆ௑ะࠍ␜ߔ㧚৻ᣇ㧘‐ߣห᭽ߦ㧘ᒰᐕ 4 ᦬ߣ10 ᦬ߩ㒠᳓㊂ߩᮡḰ࿁Ꮻଥᢙ߇-0.36㨪-0.42 ߣᭂ߼ߡૐ޿ᢙ୯ࠍ␜ߒ㧘ߎߩ ᤨᦼߩ㒠᳓㊂߇ዋߥ޿ߣᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥࠆ௑ะࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚

(53)

㧠㧣 Fig.ΥΥ5(a) ੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣฦ᦬᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩන࿁Ꮻಽᨆ⚿ᨐ The result of regression analysis between mortality rates

of five livestock and monthly meteorological data -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

೨

1 ᦬

2 ᦬

3 ᦬

4 ᦬

5 ᦬

6 ᦬

7 ᦬

8 ᦬

9 ᦬

10 ᦬

11 ᦬

12 ᦬

ᒰ

1 ᦬

2 ᦬

3 ᦬

4 ᦬

5 ᦬

6 ᦬

7 ᦬

8 ᦬

9 ᦬

10 ᦬

11 ᦬

12 ᦬

ᮡ Ḱ ࿁ Ꮻ ଥ ᢙ 㧔C㚸㚭㒠᳓ ᳇᷷

(54)

㧠㧤

Fig.ΥΥ5(b) ੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣฦ᦬᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩන࿁Ꮻಽᨆ⚿ᨐ The result of regression analysis between mortality rates

of five livestock and monthly meteorological data

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 ೨ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᒰ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᮡ Ḱ ࿁ Ꮻ ଥ ᢙ D㚍㒠᳓ ᳇᷷

(55)

㧠㧥 Fig.ΥΥ5(c) ੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣฦ᦬᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩන࿁Ꮻಽᨆ⚿ᨐ The result of regression analysis between mortality rates

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 ೨ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᒰ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᮡ Ḱ ࿁ Ꮻ ଥ ᢙ E‐ 㒠᳓ ᳇᷷

(56)

㧡㧜

Fig.ΥΥ5(d) ੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣฦ᦬᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩන࿁Ꮻಽᨆ⚿ᨐ The result of regression analysis between mortality rates

Fig.Υ5(e) ੖⒳⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣฦ᦬᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩන࿁Ꮻಽᨆ⚿ᨐ The result of regression analysis between mortality rates

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 ೨ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᒰ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᮡ Ḱ ࿁ Ꮻ ଥ ᢙ F⟠ 㒠᳓ ᳇᷷ -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 ೨ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᒰ 1 ᦬ ₂᦬ ₃᦬ ₄᦬ ᦬₅ ₆᦬ ₇᦬ ₈᦬ ₉᦬ 10 ᦬ 11 ᦬ 12 ᦬ ᮡ Ḱ ࿁ Ꮻ ଥ ᢙ Gጊ⟠ 㒠᳓ ᳇᷷

(57)

㧡㧝 ⋧㑐⸃ᨆߩ✚᜝ ᒰ࿾඙ߢߪ㧘ᄐቄߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆޟ㚸㚭࡮㚍ޠߣ㧘౻ቄߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ ߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆޟ‐࡮⟠࡮ጊ⟠ޠߦᄢ೎ߐࠇࠆߩ߇ᄢ߈ߥ․ᓽߢ޽ࠆ㧚ߘߩਛߢ㧘㚍ߪᄐቄߩૐ᷷㧘㚸㚭ߪᄐቄߩૐ᷷ᄙ㔎ߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌ߿ߔ޿㧚৻ᣇ㧘‐࡮⟠࡮ጊ ⟠ߪ㧘ᄢ㔐㧘ᭂኙߩේ࿃ߦࠃߞߡ㧘ᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߔߥࠊߜ㧘ᬀ↢߇ ᷓ޿㔐ߢⷒࠊࠇኅ⇓߇ណ㘩࿎㔍ߣߥࠆߎߣߦࠃࠆ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼ߣ㧘ᭂᐲߦኙ಄ ߥᣣ߇㐳ᦼ⛮⛯ߒಓᱫߔࠆߎߣߦࠃࠆࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ࡮࠱࠼㧔ዊችጊ㧘2005㧕߇⊒↢ߒ ߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߣߊߦ㧘‐ߪ౻ቄߩኙ಄ߦᒙ޿㧚 ߐࠄߦ㧘‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠ߪ㧘4 ᦬ߣ 10 ᦬ߩ㒠᳓㊂߇ᷫዋߔࠆߣᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥࠆ ௑ะ߇㗼⪺ߦ⷗ࠄࠇࠆ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ࠍ฽߼᧲ㇱ࿾ᣇߪ࿾⴫᳓ߩਲߒ޿࿾ၞߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ߐࠄߦ㧘᳇⽎․ᕈࠍ⷗ࠆߣ㧘4 ᦬ߣ 10 ᦬ߪᐔဋ᳇᷷߇ 0°C ೨ᓟߢ㧘౻ቄߦኅ⇓ߩ 㘶↪᳓ߣߒߡ೑↪ߔࠆⓍ㔐߇ṁߌᆎ߼ߚࠅ㧘Ⓧ㔐߇ᆎ߹ࠆᤨᦼߦ⋧ᒰߔࠆ㧚ߐࠄ ߦ㧘ߎߩᤨᦼߩ㒠᳓㊂ߪઁߩ᦬ߣᲧߴࠆߣ㕖Ᏹߦዋߥߊ㧘Fig.3 ߆ࠄಽ߆ࠆࠃ߁ߦ㧘 5 ᦬ߣ 9 ᦬ߩ᦬㒠᳓㊂ߩᐔᐕ୯߇ 17.9mm ߣ 28.6mm ߢ޽ࠆߩߦኻߒߡ㧘4 ᦬ߣ 10 ᦬ߪ 8.9mm ߣ 8.6mm ߣዋߥߊ㧘ኅ⇓ߩ᳓ಽ⵬⛎ߦߪචಽߥ㊂ߢߪߥ޿㧚ᒰ࿾ၞ ߢߩ⃻࿾⺞ᩏߦࠃࠆߣ㧘4 ᦬ߦߪኅ⇓ࠍᱷ㔐ߩ޽ࠆർᣇ߳⒖േߐߖ㧘10 ᦬ߦߥࠆ ߣ੗ᚭߩ೑↪ߢ߈ࠆ౻༡࿾߳⒖േߔࠆߥߤߩኻᔕ߇ߣࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߒ߆ߒ㧘ഭ௛ ജ߿⚻ᷣ⊛ߥ೙⚂߽޽ߞߡ㧘ኅ⇓߇ߎߩᤨᦼߩ㒠᳓㊂߇ዋߥߊߥࠆߣࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼ ߇⊒↢ߒᢣᱫ₸߇ᄢ߈ߊߥࠆ௑ะ߇‐࡮⟠࡮ጊ⟠ߦ㗼⪺ߦߺࠄࠇߚ㧚 ੖⒳⇓ߣ߽ߦᒰᐕ4 ᦬ߩ᳇᷷ߦᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ޿ߚ㧚࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ࿾ᒻ⊛ߦ⿠ફ ߇ዋߥ޿ߎߣ߆ࠄ㧘᳇⽎⊛․ᓽߣߒߡ㘑߇ᒝߊ㧘ᤐቄߪ᥸㘑㔐߿⍾፲ߦࠃࠆࠪ࡯ ࡞ࠟ࡮࠱࠼ߩ⿠ߎࠅ߿ߔ޿ᤨᦼߢ޽ࠅ㧘4 ᦬ߪߘߩࡇ࡯ࠢߢ޽ࠆߣ⸒ࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧚 ߹ߚ㧘1980 ᐕ 4 ᦬ߦߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖᧲ㇱ࿾ၞߢᄢⷙᮨߦ⊒↢ߒߚᏂᄢߥ᥸㘑㔐ߦࠃ

(58)

㧡㧞 ߞߡᄢ㊂ߩኅ⇓߇ᢣᱫߒ㧘ߎߩࠪ࡯࡞ࠟ࡮࠱࠼߇⸃ᨆ⚿ᨐߦ෻ᤋߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߣߊ ߦ㧘㚍㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠ߪߎߩ᳇⽎⃻⽎ߦᒙߊ㧘㚸㚭ߣ‐ߪᲧセ⊛ᒝ޿ߎߣ߇␜ߐࠇߡ ޿ࠆ㧚 ߹ߣ߼ ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖᧲ㇱߩ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߪ㧘Ყセ⊛ᮡ㜞߇ૐ޿ߚ߼ᐔဋ᳇᷷߇㜞޿߇ᐕセ Ꮕ߇ᄢ߈ߊ㧘࿾ᒻ⊛ߦ߽⿠ફߩዋߥ޿࿾ၞߩߚ߼ᒝ㘑߿᥸㘑㔐ߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌ߿ߔ ޿㧚߹ߚ㧘Ყセ⊛㒠᳓㊂߇ᄙ޿ߚ߼’⨲᧦ઙ߇ࠃ޿߇࿾⴫᳓ߩਲߒ޿࿾ၞߢ޽ࠆ㧚 ߎߩ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ࠍኻ⽎ߦߒߡ㧘㐳ᦼ㑆ߦࠊߚࠆ᳇⽎࠺࡯࠲ߣ੖⒳⇓ߩ㗡ᢙ߅ࠃ߮ ᢣᱫ₸ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍಽᨆߒߚ㧚ᧄ⎇ⓥ߆ࠄ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚߎߣࠍขࠅ➙߼ࠆߣએਅ ߩࠃ߁ߦߥࠆ㧚 (1) ኅ⇓ߩ✚㗡ᢙߩ㐳ᦼᄌേߪਥߦ␠ળ࡮⚻ᷣ⊛ⷐ࿃ߦᓇ㗀ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߩߦኻߒ㧘 ᢣᱫ₸ߩ⍴ᦼ⊛ߥᄌേߪਥߦ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߩᓇ㗀ࠍᒝߊฃߌߡ޿ߚ㧚 (2) ੖⒳⇓㑆ߦ߅ߌࠆᢣᱫ₸ߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙࠍ⸃ᨆߒߚߣߎࠈ㧘‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠ߩᢣᱫ ₸ߩ㑆ߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙߪ0.64 એ਄ߣᲧセ⊛㜞ߊ㧘ߎࠇࠄ 3 ⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߦᓇ㗀ߔࠆ ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃߇㘃ૃߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇␜ໂߐࠇߚ㧚৻ᣇ㧘㚸㚭ߪ㚍ߣ⋧㑐ଥᢙ߇Ყセ ⊛㜞޿㧔⋧㑐ଥᢙ=0.65㧕߽ߩߩ㧘ઁߩਃ⇓ߣߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙ߇૛ࠅᄢ߈ߊߥߊ㧘 ᢣᱫ₸ߦᓇ㗀ߔࠆ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃߇⇣ߥࠆߎߣ߇␜ໂߐࠇߚ㧚 (3) 㚸㚭ߣ㚍ߪ౻ቄߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߦ޽߹ࠅᓇ㗀ߐࠇߕ㧘ᄐቄߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߦᓇ㗀ߐࠇ ߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘㚍ߪᄐቄߩૐ᷷㧘㚸㚭ߪᄐቄߩૐ᷷ᄙ㔎ߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌ߿ߔ޿ߎߣ߇ ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚ㧚 (4) ‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠ߪ౻ቄߩ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߦᓇ㗀ߐࠇࠆ㧚ᄢ㔐㧘ᭂኙߩේ࿃ߦࠃߞߡ⊒

(59)

㧡㧟 ↢ߔࠆ࠷ࠔࠟࡦ࡮࠱࠼㧘ࡈࠖ࠹ࡦ࡮࠱࠼ߣߒߡᢣᱫ₸߇㜞ߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆ㧚ߣߊ ߦ㧘‐ߪ౻ቄߩኙ಄ߦ․ߦᒙ޿㧚 (5) ‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠ߪ㧘4 ᦬ߩⲢ㔐߿ 10 ᦬ߩⓍ㔐ߩ㐿ᆎᤨᦼߦ㒠᳓㊂߇ዋߥߊߥࠆ ߣࡂ࡜࡮࠱࠼߇⊒↢ߒߡ޿ߚ㧚 (6) ੖⒳⇓ߣ߽ߦᒰᐕ 4 ᦬ߩ᳇᷷ߦᓇ㗀ߐࠇߡ޿ߚ㧚ߎࠇߪᤐቄߩ᥸㘑㔐ߣ⍾፲ ߩᓇ㗀ߦࠃࠆࠪ࡯࡞ࠟ࡮࠱࠼ߢ޽ࠅ㧘ߣߊߦ㧘㚍㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠ߪߎߩ᳇⽎⃻⽎ߦ ᒙߊ㧘㚸㚭ߣ‐ߪᲧセ⊛ᒝ޿ߎߣ߇␜ໂߐࠇߚ㧚

(60)

㧡㧠

Φ

. ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠱࠼ⵍኂߩ࿾ၞ․ᕈ

⋡⊛ ᳇୥ᄌേߪੱ㘃ߩ↢ሽߦᄢ߈ߥᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ࠆ㧚ߣߊߦ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞㜞ේߢߪޟ࠱ ࠼ޠߣ๭߫ࠇࠆ⥄ὼἴኂ߇㗫❥ߦ⊒↢ߒ㧘ኅ⇓ߦ↟ᄢߥⵍኂࠍ෸߷ߒ㧘ߘߩ⚿ᨐ ߣߒߡㆆ’᳃ߩ⽺࿎߿㘫㙈ࠍ᜗ߊߎߣ߇ᄙ޿㧚৻⥸ߦ㧘ޟ౻ᤐቄߦ’⨲߿㘶↪᳓ߩ ᰳ ਲ ߩ ߚ ߼ 㧘 ኅ ⇓ ߇ ∳ ߖ ᄢ ㊂ ߦ ᱫ ੢ ߔ ࠆ ߦ ⥋ ࠆ ⥄ ὼ ἴ ኂ ޠ㧔Natsagdorj and Dulamsuren, 2001㧕ో⥸ࠍޟ࠱࠼ޠߣ⴫⃻ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘ᐢᄢߥࡕࡦࠧ࡞㜞ේߢߪ࿾ ၞߏߣߦ⥄ὼ᧦ઙ߇⇣ߥࠆߚ߼᳇୥ᄌേߩᓇ㗀߽ᄢ߈ߊᄌൻߒ㧘ߘࠇߦࠃߞߡ⊒ ↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼ߩ⒳㘃߿ⵍኂߩ⒟ᐲ߽⇣ߥࠆߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆ㧚 ৻⥸ߦ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߢߪ㧘࿾ℂ⊛ߥ૏⟎ߣᬀ↢ߦᓥߞߡ㧘㜞ጊᬀ↢Ꮺ㧘᫪ᨋᏪ㧘 ᫪ᨋ⨲ේᏪ㧘ᐔේᏪ㧘⍾Ṽᕈ⨲ේᏪ㧘⍾ṼᏪߩ㧢ߟߩ࿾Ꮺߦಽ㘃ߐࠇ㧘ߐࠄߦ㧘 Ԙ㜞ጊ㧘⍾Ṽᕈ⨲ේᏪ㧘ԙ᫪ᨋ㧘᫪ᨋ⨲ේᏪ㧘ԚᐔේᏪ㧘ԛ⍾Ṽᕈ⨲ේ㧘⍾ṼᏪ ߣ޿߁㧠ߟߩ’⇓඙ߦ඙ಽߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔ࡃ࠻࠘࡯࡞࡮࠰ࠗ࡞ࠞࡓ 2004㧕㧚߹ߚ㧘㘺⢒ߒߡ޿ࠆኅ⇓ߪ㚸㚭㧔࡜ࠢ࠳㧕㧘㚍㧘‐㧘⟠㧘ጊ⟠㧔ࡗࠡ㧕ߦࠃࠅ᭴ᚑߐࠇ㧘 ✚⒓ߒߡ੖⒳⇓㧔tavonhoshiyo mal㧕ߣ๭ࠎߢ޿ࠆ㧔↭ᔮട↭㧘1996㧕㧚ߎࠇࠄߪ ޿ߕࠇ߽㗎ᒝߢ޽ࠅ㧘ㆇേ⢻ജ߇㜞ߊ㧘☻㘩ߦ⠴߃ࠆߣ޿߁․ᓽࠍᜬߞߡ޿ࠆ߇㧘 ↢ℂ⊛․ᓽ㧘ណ㘩⠌ᘠ㧘⒖േ⢻ജߪ੖⒳⇓ߏߣߦ⇣ߥࠅ㧘ᄙ᭽ߥ᳇⽎᧦ઙߦࠃߞ ߡ⊒↢ߔࠆ࠱࠼ߩ⒳㘃߿ⵍኂߩ⒟ᐲ߽ᄢ߈ߊᄌൻߔࠆ㧔JIRIGALA㧘ᛩⓂਛ㧕㧚ߒ ߆ߒ㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ߢߪ㧘⟠ߪ㜞ጊߩḨ࿾㧘࠲ࠗࠟ࿾Ꮺ㧘⍾ṼߩਇᲫ࿾Ꮺࠍ㒰ߊ߶ߣ ࠎߤߩ࿯࿾ߦㆡᔕߒ㧘ᤄ߆ࠄ੖⒳⇓ߩ✚㗡ᢙߦභ߼ࠆഀวߪᄢ߈ߊ㧘ㆡ࿾ߢߪ42%㧘 ᦨㆡ࿾ߢߪ58%એ਄ࠍභ߼ߡ޿ࠆ㧚

(61)

㧡㧡 ߘߎߢ㧘ᧄ⎇ⓥߢߪ㧘ࡎࡉ࠼⋵㧘ࠕ࡞ࡂࡦࠟࠗ⋵㧘࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵㧘࠙ࡓ࠿ࠧࡆ⋵ ࠍࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩ㧠’⇓඙ߩታ⸽⋵ߣߒߡㆬ߮㧔Fig.ΦΦ-㧝ෳᾖ㧕㧘߹ߚ㧘ో⋵ߢਥⷐ ߥኅ⇓ߢ޽ࠆ⟠ࠍኻ⽎ߣߒߡ㧘ኅ⇓ߩᢣᱫ₸ߣ᳇⽎ⷐ࿃ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍ⛔⸘⸃ᨆߔࠆ ߎߣߦࠃࠅ㧘᳇⽎᧦ઙߩᄌേߦࠃࠆኅ⇓ⵍኂߩ⋧㆑ࠍ࿾ၞ․ᕈ߆ࠄ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߔࠆ ߎߣࠍ⋡⊛ߦߒߚ㧚

(62)

㧡㧢

Fig.ΦΦ-1 ࠼࡞ࡁ࠼⋵ߩ૏⟎ߣࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩᮡ㜞ಽᏓ㧚ᮡ㜞ߪ GTOPO30

㧔Gesch et al., 1999㧕㧘ⴕ᡽⇇ߪ Global Administrative Area

㧔http://www.gadm.org/㧕ࠍ↪޿ߡ૞ᚑߒߚ㧚

The location of Dornod prefecture and the elevation of Mongolia. GTOPO30 (Gesch et al., 1999) was utilized for creating elevation distribution and administrative boundaries are drawn based on Global Administrative Area

dataset (http://www.gadm.org/).

(63)

㧡㧣㧞㧚ታ⸽⋵ߩ᭎ⷐ 㜞ጊ㧘⍾Ṽᕈ⨲ේᏪ㧔ࡎࡉ࠻⋵㧕㜞ጊ㧘⍾Ṽᕈ⨲ේᏪߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩ⷏ㇱߦ૏⟎ߒ㧘ࡃࡗࡦ࠙࡞ࠡ࡯㧘ࠩࡉࡂࡦ㧘 ࠝࡉࠬ㧘ࡎࡉ࠼㧘ࡃࡗࡦࡎࡦࠧ࡞㧘ࠧࡆ࡯ࠕ࡞࠲ࠗߩ6 ⋵߇฽߹ࠇࠆ㧚ో࿖ߩጊ ⟠ߩ✚㗡ᢙߩ50%ࠍභ߼㧘ጊ⟠㧘⟠㧘㚸㚭ߩ㘺⢒ߦㆡߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚ኻ⽎ߣߒߚࡎࡉ ࠼⋵㧔એਅ㧘㧴⋵ߣ⒓ߔ㧕ߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖⷏┵ߩ4000m ⚖ߩጊޘ߇ㅪߥࠆࠕ࡞࠲ࠗ ጊ⣂߿ߘߩධർ⵿ߦ૏⟎ߒ㧘ᐔဋᶏᛮߪ߅ࠃߘ2250m ߢ㧘ኻ⽎ߣߒߚ 4 ⋵ߩਛߢ ߪᦨ߽ᮡ㜞߇㜞޿㧚㧴⋵ߪࠕ࡞࠲ࠗጊ⣂ࠍ〙ߞߡධㇱ߇ࠧࡆ⍾Ṽߦߟߥ߇ࠅ㧘ർ ㇱ߇ࠕ࡞࠲ࠗߣࡂࡦࠟࠗጊ⣂ߦࠃࠅᚑᒻߒߚᄢ⼱ߦߟߥ߇ߞߡ޿ࠆ㧚ᐕ㑆ᐔဋ᳇ ᷷ߪ-0.27͠೨ᓟߢ㧘ᐕ㑆㒠᳓㊂ߪ߅ࠃߘ 125mm ߣዋߥ޿߇㧘ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ࠕ࡞࠲ࠗ ጊ⣂ߩਁᐕ㔐ߦᕺ߹ࠇߡ㧘ḓ߇ᄙߊ᳓⾗Ḯ߇⼾ንߢ޽ࠆߩ߇․ᓽߢ޽ࠆ(TableΦΦ 1 ෳᾖ)㧚 ᫪ᨋ᫪ᨋ⨲ේᏪ㧔ࠕ࡞ࡂࡦࠟࠗ⋵㧕 ᫪ᨋ,᫪ᨋ⨲ේᏪߦߪࠕ࡞ࡂࡦࠟࠗ㧘࠙ࡉ࡞ࡂࡦࠟࠗ㧘࠻࠘ࡉ㧘ࡏ࡞ࠟࡦ㧘ࡈࡉ ࠬࠥ࡞㧘࠮࡟ࡦࠣߩ 6 ⋵߇฽߹ࠇ㧘’⨲ߩ↢㐳߇ࡕࡦࠧ࡞ߢߪ৻⇟⦟ߊ, ో࿖ߩ ‐✚㗡ᢙߩ47%ࠍභ߼㧘‐㧘㚍㧘⟠ߩ㘺⢒ߦㆡߒߡ޿ࠆ㧚 ࠕ࡞ࡂࡦࠟࠗ⋵㧔એਅ㧘㧭⋵ߣ⒓ߔ㧕ߪࡕࡦࠧ࡞࿖ߩਛᄩㇱߦߘ߮߃┙ߟࡂࡦ ࠟࠗጊ⣂ߩർㇱߦ૏⟎ߒ㧘⷏ߣർ㕙߇㜞޿ጊޘߦ࿐߹ࠇ㧘ᦨ㜞࿾ὐߩࡂ࡞࡜ࠣ࠲ ࠗࡦ࡮ࠨ࡞࠳ࠣߪ3539m㧘᧲ߣධ஥߇ૐߊ㧘ᦨૐ࿾ὐߪࠝ࡞ࡎࡦᎹ߿࠲ࡒ࡞Ꮉᵹ ၞߩ1290m ߢ޽ࠆ㧚1 ᐕ㑆ࠍㅢߓߡ 7 ߆᦬㑆ߩ᦬ᐔဋ᳇᷷߇᳖ὐਅߢ㧘ᐕ㑆ᐔဋ ᳇᷷ߪ-3.6͠ߣኻ⽎ߣߒߚ 4 ⋵ߩਛߢᦨ߽᳇᷷߇ૐ޿㧚৻ᣇߢ㧘ᐔဋᐕ㑆㒠᳓㊂