ABMに基づく情報拡散シミュレーション

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(1)Vol.2013-ICS-172 No.3 2013/11/12. IPSJ SIG Technical Report. ABM 1,a). 3. 2. 2 1. 2011. 3. 11. 4. 5. 6. 1,b). Twitter. SIR. SIR. [2] Twitter. 1.. Twitter [1]. Twitter Twitter. [3] Twitter. 2011. 3. 11 Twitter Twitter. Twitter. 1. The University of Electro-Communications 2. The University of Tokyo 3. Osaka University 4. Keio University 5. Wakayama University. Twitter. 6. a) b). National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology [email protected] [email protected]. ⓒ 2013 Information Processing Society of Japan. Agent Based. Model ABM 2. 1.

(2) Vol.2013-ICS-172 No.3 2013/11/12. IPSJ SIG Technical Report. 3. 3.1. 2.. 3.1.1 SIR SIR. Twitter. SIR. SIR. Kermack. [8][9] SIR. Twitte. S Suseptible. I Infectious R Recovered S. 3. I. ρ(S→I). [3]. I. I. ρ(I→R) R S. 1. R. t. I. [4]. I. I(t) R. S. S(t). R(t).  dS(t)  = −ρ(S→I) I(t)S(t)    dt dI(t). =ρ. Twitter. (1). I(t)S(t) − ρ(I→R) I(t). (S→I)  dt    dR(t) = ρ (I→R) I(t). dt. [5]. N. N = S(t) +. I(t) + R(t). Sakaki. Twitte. 3.1.2 SIR. [6]. R Twitter. R. Twitter. Stefan. Twitter. S R. I. 3. 3 [7] Twitter. • S. • Iget Twitter. • I • Rget • R. ⓒ 2013 Information Processing Society of Japan. 2.

(3) Vol.2013-ICS-172 No.3 2013/11/12. IPSJ SIG Technical Report.  F F dS(t)   = − I(t)S(t) − R(t)S(t)   dt N N   dIget (t) F   = (1 − ρ(S→I) ) I(t)S(t)   dt N   F   −ρ(Iget →I) Iget (t)I(t)   N   F   − Iget (t)R(t)   N         dI(t) F   = ρ(S→I) I(t)S(t)   dt N   F   +ρ(Iget →I) Iget (t)I(t)   N   F   − I(t)R(t)   N   . N F SNS SIR S. Twitter. I t. 1. S. F S(t) N F Iget (t) N. Iget 2 ρ(S→I) S I. ρ(S→R) ρ(Iget →R) ρ(I→R) ρ(Rget →R) Rget. R. ρ(Iget →I) S. Iget. I. (3). dRget (t) F  = (1 − ρ(S→R) ) R(t)S(t)   dt N   F   +(1 − ρ(Iget →R) ) Iget (t)R(t)    N   F   +(1 − ρ(I→R) ) I(t)R(t)   N   F   −ρ(Rget →R) Rget (t)R(t)   N        dR(t) F   = ρ(S→R) R(t)S(t)   dt N   F   +ρ(Iget →R) Iget (t)R(t)   N   F   +ρ(I→R) I(t)R(t)    N   F  +ρ(R →R) Rget (t)R(t) get. N. 3.2. S.  F dS(t)   = − I(t)S(t)   dt N   dIget (t) F   = (1 − ρ(S→I) ) I(t)S(t)   dt N   F  −ρ(Iget →I) Iget (t)I(t) N      F  dI(t)  = ρ(S→I) I(t)S(t)    dt N   F  +ρ Iget (t)I(t) (Iget →I). I. I. R. (2). N. 3. ⓒ 2013 Information Processing Society of Japan. 3.

(4) Vol.2013-ICS-172 No.3 2013/11/12. IPSJ SIG Technical Report. 4.. SIR 4.1 [10]. 1. M oTβt = M oTβt−1 e−(F G−t) + ikβ sβ. %. an. (4). n. β αn. β. t. FG :a a. 1 β αn. 4. β. ”M oTβ t” β. ”I” PageRank. β. ”Iget” ”M oTβ t” ”R”. ”Rget” :i. ’Iget”. ”R”. ”Rget”. ’I”. i. :s. 4. 1. s. 4.2 MoT Motivation of Tweet. 3 2. MoT. ⓒ 2013 Information Processing Society of Japan. 4. 4.

(5) Vol.2013-ICS-172 No.3 2013/11/12. IPSJ SIG Technical Report. 1 2. 1. 2 50,000 =3,000. 2. t=1 1. =10. I. =0.5 =15.0 =0.05. 3 t = 11. 1. =0.5. R 3 4 t = 25. i s. 0 1 0 1. a. PageRank. 5.. 5.1 5.1.1 2 4 ρ(S→I) = 0.05 ρ(Iget →I) = 0.05 ρ(S→R) = 0.1. ρ(Iget →R) = 0.1 ρ(I→R) = 0.15. Twitter. ρ(Rget →R) = 0. ”Iget”. ”Rget”. 4 [3] 1. 3. 3. [3]. 4 5.1.2. 3 100 2. ⓒ 2013 Information Processing Society of Japan. 5.

(6) Vol.2013-ICS-172 No.3 2013/11/12. IPSJ SIG Technical Report. 5 1. 6. 2. t=1 1. I. 3 t = 25. 6 1,500 =500 =1 =0.1 =15.0. 4. =0.05 =0.5. 4 ”I”. 0.000035. ”R”. 0.00002 ”R”. Step. 0. 3. Simulation. ”I” ”S”. Simulation Step3. ”I”. 5.2 5.2.1 1. Step3. 5 6 0.002. 5. 5.2.2. 0.002. 5 1. Step hop. 1hop. 5. hop. Step1. Step2. Step1 Step4. hop 3hop ⓒ 2013 Information Processing Society of Japan. Step4 6.

(7) Vol.2013-ICS-172 No.3 2013/11/12. IPSJ SIG Technical Report. Twitter 2012 [4] Twitter , vol. 112, no. 346, DE2012-29, pp. 87-92, 2012 [5]. Twitter [6]. 6. Twitter. SIR. [7]. [8]. [9]. Vol.95 No.3 pp.219-223 2012 Takeshi Sakaki Makoto Okazaki Yutaka Matsuo ”Earthquake Shakes Twitter Users:Real-time Event Detection by Social Sensors” WWW’10 Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World wide web Pages 851-860 2010 Stefan Stieglitz Linh Dang-Xuan ”Political Communication and Influence through Microblogging-An Empirical Analysis of Sentiment in Twitter Messages and Retweet Behavior” 45th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences 2012 W. O. Kermack, A. G. McKendrick A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, Proceedings of the Royal Society 115A, pp.700-721, 1927. , , , 2005.. [10] .SITE, 103(78), pp.13-18, 2003. [1]. 23 , http://www.soumu.go.jp/johotsusintokei/whitepaper/ ja/h23/pdf/index.html, 2011. [2] :. NHK 61(7), 16-23, 2011. [3]. ⓒ 2013 Information Processing Society of Japan. 7.

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