2016/11/25
ኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ⎔ቃ䛾ண ◊✲䛻䛴䛔䛶
ⲡ㔝 ஓ
ྡྂᒇᏛᏱᐂᆅ⌫⎔ቃ◊✲ᡤ
➨13ᅇᏱᐂ⎔ቃ䝅䞁䝫䝆䜴䝮
2016ᖺ11᭶2᪥ ሗ㏻ಙ◊✲ᶵᵓኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ⎔ቃ䛾ண ◊✲䛻䛴䛔䛶
᪂䛯䛺Ᏹᐂ⎔ቃண 䜢┠ᣦ䛧䛶
ᩥ㒊⛉Ꮫ┬᪂Ꮫ⾡㡿ᇦ䛂ኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ⎔ቃண 䠄 PSTEP) 䛃
᪂䛯䛺ኴ㝧㠃⇿Ⓨ䛾ண 䜢┠ᣦ䛧䛶
ኴ㝧䝣䝺䜰䛾Ⓨ⏕ᶵᵓ䛾⌮ゎ䛸ண
2016/11/25
Ᏹᐂ⎔ቃኚື䛾♫ᙳ㡪
㟁㞳ᅪᨐ䛻䜘䜛 䞉㏻ಙ㞀ᐖ 䞉㏻ಙ
Ᏹᐂᨺᑕ⥺䛻䜘䜛Ᏹᐂ㣕⾜ኈ䞉⯟✵ᶵဨ䛾⿕᭚
Ᏹᐂᨺᑕ⥺
ᆅ☢Ẽㄏᑟ㟁ὶ䛻䜘䜛
㟁ຊ⥙㞀ᐖ䛸㟁 ⾨ᫍ㞀ᐖ䞉㌶㐨ᙳ㡪
X⥺ኳᩥ⾨ᫍ䛒䛩䛛䠖 2000ᖺ7᭶䛾ᕧኴ 㝧䝣䝺䜰䛾ᙳ㡪䛷ጼ ໃไᚚ⬟䛸䛺䜚䚸
Ẽᅪ䛻✺ධ䛧䛯䚹 1989ᖺ3᭶䛾ᕧ☢Ẽᔒ
䛻䜘䜚䜿䝧䝑䜽ᕞ䛷㟁 䛜Ⓨ⏕䛧䚸䜰䝯䝸䜹య 䛻ᙳ㡪䛜ᗈ䛜䛳䛯䚹
㟁ຊ ⾨ᫍ
䜿䝑䝧䜽㟁䛾 㝿䛻↝䛡䛯䝖䝷䞁䝇
Ẽೃᙳ㡪
䛂䜛䝔䜲䝮䝈ᕝ (1677)䛃
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:The_Frozen_Thames_1677.jpg
ኴ㝧άື䛾ᴟᑠᮇ䠄䜾䝷䞁䝗䞉 䝭䝙䝬䝮䠅䛻䛚䛡䜛ᑠịᮇ䛾Ⓨ⏕
3
䝣䝺䜰䛻⣙4 mSv䛾⿕᭚ྍ⬟ᛶ
2014ᖺ1᭶Ᏹᐂᨺᑕ
⥺ቑຍ䛻䜘䜚ISS䜈 䛾⿵⤥ᶵᡴୖᘏᮇ
䝣䝺䜰䛻⣙100 mSv䛾⿕᭚ྍ⬟ᛶ
2012ᖺ1᭶䜰䝯䝸䜹 㐃㑥⯟✵ᒁ䛜ᴟ⯟
㊰䛾ኚ᭦䜢່࿌
䝕䝸䞁䝆䝱䞊⌧㇟䛻䜘䛳䛶
ᩘ༑ศ䡚ᩘ㛫䛻䜟䛯䜚 㛗㊥㞳▷Ἴ㏻ಙ䛜㏻䚸
⯟✵↓⥺➼䛷䜒㞀ᐖ
⢏Ꮚ
㍽ᑕ
⢏Ꮚ ㍽ᑕ
ኴ㝧㢼
ኴ㝧㢼
⢏Ꮚ
㍽ᑕ
⢏Ꮚ
㍽ᑕ ኴ㝧㢼
ኴ㝧 ᆅ⌫
ኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ䛾⎔ቃኚື
⇿Ⓨ⌧㇟ Ᏹᐂᨺᑕ⥺
☢Ẽᔒ 㟁㞳ᅪᔒ
ኴ㝧ᨺᑕ䠄VIS, UV, EUV, X) ኴ㝧㢼䠄㧗㏿䝥䝷䝈䝬ὶ䠅
㧗䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊⢏Ꮚ
ኴ㝧
2
ኴ㝧䝁䝻䝘䛾X⥺ほ (䜘䛖䛣䛖⾨ᫍ)
㛗ᮇኚື Ẽೃኚື
ᑠịᮇ
㐣ཤ400ᖺ㛫䛾ኴ㝧㯮Ⅼᩘኚ
すᬺ
ኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ䛾⎔ቃኚື
Ⓨ⏕ ఏ ᙳ㡪
SC23 ண 䛾ᖜ䠄SC24䠅
ᑠịᮇすᬺ
SC24 䛾ᴟ್
ኴ㝧䝣䝺䜰Ⓨ⏕ண 䛾ホ౯᥎⛣
2016/11/
25
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-activity-forecast-verification
-0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
NICT Perfect
prediction
NOAA
Yohkoh SOHO Trace HINODE SDO IRIS
䛂⛉Ꮫⓗ⌮ゎ䛃䛸䛂ᮍ᮶ண 䛃
science
research forecast
operation
Valley of death
prediction validation
≀⌮䝰䝕䝹䛻ᇶ䛵䛟ண 䜈䛾ᣮᡓ
“understanding” “predicting”
ண ◊✲䛾Ⓨᒎྐ
⤒㦂䝰䝕䝹䛻䜘䜛ண
࿘ᮇᛶ䛸┦㛵ᛶ䛾Ⓨぢ
ྂ௦ኳᩥᏛ
๓⌧㇟䛾Ⓨぢ
⤒㦂ᩘ್䝰䝕䝹
ᶵᲔᏛ⩦䜰䝹䝂䝸䝈䝮
≀⌮䝰䝕䝹䛻䜘䜛ண
≀⌮ἲ๎䛻ᇶ䛵䛟
➨ 1 ཎ⌮ィ⟬
ኳయຊᏛ
≀⌮⤒㦂䝰䝕䝹䛻䜘䜛ண
䠄GCM䛻䜘䜛Ẽ㇟Ẽೃ䝰䝕䝹䠅
≀⌮ἲ๎
䠇䝟䝷䝯䝍䝸䝊䞊䝅䝵䞁 䠖䝏䝳䞊䝙䞁䜾䠄᭱㐺䠅
≀⌮䝰䝕䝹䠇ྠᡭἲ
䜰䞁䝃䞁䝤䝹ண
ほ ್
≧ែ㔞
ほ ್
≧ែ㔞
㐣ཤ ⌧ᅾ ᮍ᮶
▱䜚䛯䛔㔞
ᮍ᮶䜢Ỵ䜑䜛䛯䜑䛻 ᚲせ䛺ሗ䛾ᢳฟ
䜰䞁䝔䜱䜻䝔䜱䝷䛾ᶵᲔ
䛆┠ⓗ 1 䛇 ⛉Ꮫⓗ㔜せㄢ㢟䛾 ᢤᮏⓗゎỴ
䕔
ኴ㝧䝣䝺䜰䛾Ⓨ⏕ᶵᵓ
䕔
ᆅ⌫ᨺᑕ⥺ᖏ䛻䛚䛡䜛⢏Ꮚຍ㏿ᶵᵓ
䕔
ኴ㝧άື䛾Ẽೃᙳ㡪䝥䝻䝉䝇䛾≉ᐃ
䛺䛹䛆┠ⓗ 2 䛇 ♫ᇶ┙䛸䛧䛶䛾 ᏱᐂኳẼணሗ䛾㣕㌍ⓗⓎᒎ
䕔
♫䛻ᙺ❧䛴ண 䝇䜻䞊䝮䛾㛤Ⓨ
䠄㏻ಙ䚸㟁ຊ䚸⾨ᫍ䞉⯟✵ᶵ➼䜈䛾ᙳ㡪ண 䠅 䕔
⃭⏒ᏱᐂኳẼ⅏ᐖ䛻ഛ䛘䜛ᏱᐂኳẼ
䝝䝄䞊䝗䝬䝑䝥䜢ୡ⏺䛻Ⓨಙ
᭱ඛ➃䛾≀⌮䝰䝕䝹 ୡ⏺䛻䜛ほ ⥙䞉䝕䞊䝍 䠄䜂䛾䛷⾨ᫍ䞉
ERG⾨ᫍ䠅 ᪂Ꮫ⾡㡿ᇦ◊✲䠄◊✲㡿ᇦᥦᆺ䠅 ᖹᡂ27䠉31ᖺᗘ
ኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ⎔ቃண 䠖
ᡃ䚻䛜⏕䛝䜛Ᏹᐂ䛾⌮ゎ䛸䛭䛾ኚື䛻ᑐᛂ䛩䜛♫ᇶ┙䛾ᙧᡂ
Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP)
2016/11/25
Nagoya U ISEE
NICTNAOJ ISAS/JAXA ENRIU EC
Kyoto U
RIHN
Tohoku U
Hiroshima U
JAEA
Osaka P U Hyogo P U
JMA NIPR JMA
Kyushu U
Chiba U JAMSTEC U Tokyo RIKEN Musashino A U Sekei U
ᅜ20⤌⧊䚸⣙100ྡ䛾◊✲⪅
PSTEP Network
ኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ⎔ቃண 䠖ᡃ䚻䛜⏕䛝䜛Ᏹᐂ䛾
⌮ゎ䛸䛭䛾ኚື䛻ᑐᛂ䛩䜛♫ᇶ┙䛾ᙧᡂ
Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction
ᩥ㒊⛉Ꮫ┬ ᪂Ꮫ⾡㡿ᇦ◊✲ (2015-2019)
᪂Ꮫ⾡㡿ᇦ䇾 PSTEP” 䛾⤌⧊ᵓᡂ䛸㐃ᦠ
A01
ணሗ䝅䝇䝔䝮⌜ 䠄
NICT▼䠅
䐟 ♫䛾䝙䞊䝈䛻ᛂ䛘䜛ணሗ䝅䝇䝔䝮䛾㛤Ⓨ 䝰䝕䝹䛾⤫ྜэ♫ᙳ㡪ண ᐇ㦂
A04
࿘ᮇάື⌜
(ி వ⏣䠅 ኴ㝧ほ 䠄䜂䛾䛷⾨ᫍ䠅
Ẽೃ䝕䞊䝍䜰䞊䜹䜲䝤
ኴ㝧࿘ᮇάື䝰䝕䝹 ᆅ⌫䝅䝇䝔䝮䝰䝕䝹
ḟᮇኴ㝧࿘ᮇண ኴ㝧Ẽೃᙳ㡪せ⣲
A02
ኴ㝧ᔒ⌜䠄ி ୍ᮏ䠅
䝣䝺䜰Ⓨ⏕ண ኴ㝧㢼ᨐண
䝣䝺䜰䝰䝕䝹
ኴ㝧ᅪ䝰䝕䝹
⾨ᫍほ
(䜂䛾䛷䚸
SDO)ග⌫☢ሙ ᆅୖほ 䝣䜱䝷䝯䞁䝖☢ሙ㏿ᗘ
A03
ᆅ⌫㟁☢Ẽ⌜䠄ྡ ୕ዲ䠅
Ᏹᐂᨺᑕ⥺ண ᆅ☢Ẽኚືண
⢏Ꮚຍ㏿䝰䝕䝹
☢Ẽᅪ䝰䝕䝹
Ẽ㟁㞳ᅪ䝰䝕䝹
⾨ᫍほ
(ERG)䚸ᆅୖほ
㟁㞳ᅪᨐண
ᅜ㝿㐃ᦠᣐⅬ ⥲ᣓ⌜ 䠄ྡ ⲡ㔝䠅
䐠 ▷ᮇኚື
䠄⇿Ⓨ⌧㇟䠅
䐡 㛗ᮇኚື
䠄Ẽೃᙳ㡪䠅
♫⤒῭άື
බເ◊✲
7㯮Ⅼᙧែศ㢮䛻䜘䜛䝣䝺䜰Ⓨ⏕☜⋡
McIntosh classification
McIntosh 1990
Gallagher, Moon, Wang 2002 Sol. Phys.
ኴ㝧䝣䝺䜰䛾 MHD 䝅䝭䝳䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁
Opposite Polarity Reversed Shear
Feedback Cycle Model
Eruptive Instability
Magnetic Reconnection destabilizing
Magnetic helicity is transferred from shear
to twisted rope
driving
(pull-reconnection)
v J
Kusano et al. 2012
Opposite Polarity
Reversed Shear
⮫⏺≧ែ䜢Ỵ䜑䜛
䝟䝷䝯䝍䛿ఱ䛛䠛
Threshold of Instability
Numerical experiments of solar eruption for the various duration of trigger field
injection.
h
time
Injection of trigger flux
Point of no return
OP field
critical state
Double Arc Instability
I
߶ ௧௧
ܶ = න ܤ ȉ ߘ × ܤ ܤ
ଶ݈݀
ࣄ ؠ ࢀ ࣘ ࢘ࢋࢉ
ࣘ ࢚࢚ࢇ > ૡ࣊
Critical Parameter
Ishiguro and Kusano 2016 (submitted to ApJ)
magnetic twist
߶
Normalized flux of tether-cutting reconnection
Inoue, Kusano, Hayashi 2016 䜂䛾䛷⾨ᫍ
ኴ㝧⾲㠃 䝧䜽䝖䝹☢ሙ
᪂䛯䛺ண ◊✲䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛾㛤ጞ
Ᏹᐂ⎔ቃ䛾ண 䜢㏻䛧䛶⛉Ꮫ◊✲䛸ᏱᐂኳẼணሗ 䛾┦ⓗ䛺Ⓨᒎ䜢┠ᣦ䛩᪂Ꮫ⾡㡿ᇦ䛂ኴ㝧ᆅ⌫ᅪ
⎔ቃண 䠄 PSTEP) 䛃䛜㐍⾜୰䚹
ኴ㝧㠃⇿Ⓨ䛾⌮ゎ䛸ண 䜢┠ᣦ䛧䛶
☢Ẽ䝸䝁䝛䜽䝅䝵䞁䛸㟁☢ὶయຊᏛᏳᐃᛶ䛾┦
స⏝䛜ኴ㝧㠃⇿Ⓨ䛾ᇶᮏ䝯䜹䝙䝈䝮
䛭䛾⮫⏺≧ែ䜢Ỵ䜑䜛䝟䝷䝯䝍䜢Ỵ䜑䜛䛣䛸䛻䜘䛳䛶䚸 ኴ㝧䝣䝺䜰䛾᪂䛯䛺ண 䛜ྍ⬟
ኴ㝧䝧䜽䝖䝹☢ሙ䛛䜙ぢ䛔䛰䛫䜛䛂 N ್䛃䛿᭷ᮃ䛺ண 䝟䝷䝯䝍
䜎䛸䜑
17
