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Resource Risk and

Resource Risk and

Possibility of Recycling

Possibility of Recycling

Three statements on metal resource use.

Three statements on metal resource use.

Demand of many kinds of common

Demand of many kinds of common-- and rare

and

rare--metals will overshoot the confirmed

metals will overshoot the confirmed

resources not later than 2050.

resources not later than 2050.

Factor 8 in resource view is required to keep

Factor 8 in resource view is required to keep

sustainable resource use.

sustainable resource use.

Urban mining is promising to dig up metals

Urban mining is promising to dig up metals

close to the consumption.

close to the consumption.

10 15 20 25 生産 量 鉄(億トン) セメント(億トン) アルミ(百万トン) プラスチック(千万トン) Steel 100Mt cement 100Mt aluminum 1Mt plastic 10Mt co nsumptio n 図3 生産量の変化 0 5 10 1850 1900 1950 2000 年

｢Mineral Commodity Summaries｣ U.S. Department of the Interior，U.S. Geological Survey および世界鉱物資源データブック、資源・素材学会編、オーム社(1998) 等から作成

year

co

The production of materials increasing rapidly.

Consumption of iron was once moderated, but now increase again

Energy

Generation, conversion, storage

Energy use

Heat, actuation, illumination, information

cleaning

Fuel Cell

Solar Cell battery

Thermo-Electric motor LED

Electronic parts catalyst Ga Pt Li Bi Dy Ga Ag Pt Ga As In Cd Rh Pt Rh La Ce Gd Li Co Ni R.E. Bi Te Co Sb Dy Nd Sm Co B Ga In La Eu Y Ag Au Pd Rh In Ta W Ni Pt Pd Rh R.E.

700 800 900 1000

Japan Canada China U.S.A. Korea Australia Malasia

Annual steel

consumption

A prediction of consumption was studied with use of the relation

between GDP/capita and amount of consumption / capita

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 GDP per capita

ion per capita

Line B y = 0.0064x + 440 R2 = 0.4506 Line A y = 0.056x R2 _{= 0.9501} 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 y = 9.01E-04x y = -3.13E-05x + 6.74E+00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Fe _Zn GDP per capita ($) Æ Å metal consumption per capita (kg)

Fe-type: weakly de-coupled Al, Ni, Mo, Ag, Sb

Zn-type: de-coupled Cu, Sn, Pb, W, Cr, Mn, Au y = 3.91E-05x 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 y = 2.19E-03x y = 0.0057x 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Si R.E.

Si-type: still coupling Pt, Co R.E.-type: further coupling Li, In, Ga

ar capita , US$/capita

30 000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

_Brazil

China

India

Russia

France

Germany

G DP p ar

Fig. 1 GDP per capita at each country predicted by Goldman Sachs

Y e a r

-75-0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2000 2005201020152020202520302035204020452050

y

Italy

Japan

UK

US

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

US

UK

Japan

Italy

Germany

France

Fe

Using a GDP development model by Goldman-Sach,

consumptions of each metals are predicted up to 2050.

0

500,000

1,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

France

Russia

India

China

Brazil

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

e (

K

t

on)

Amount of reserve

Accumulated consumption of iron will become close to the amount of reserve, although iron has been believed to be thick in the ground.

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Fe

Accumulated consumption Already mined.

6

8

10

12

US

UK

Japan

Italy

Germany

Au

0

2

4

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

France

Russia

India

China

Brazil

150

200

250

300

350

400

u (

K

t

o

n)

Amount of reserve

Amount of reserve base

In the case of gold, accumulated consumption will run over the reserve-base, which is technical reserve without considering economic limit.

0

50

100

150

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Au

(

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 US UK Japan Italy Germany France Russia India China Brazil Fe 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Fe ( K t on ) Accumulated consumption Åreserve Åreserve base already mined 20 000 30,000 40,000 50,000 _US UK Japan Italy Germany F Cu 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 C u (K t o n ) Annual consumption (kt) 0 10,000 20,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 France Russia India China Brazil 0 500,000 200 5 201 0 201 5 202 0 202 5 203 0 203 5 204 0 204 5 205 0 C 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 US UK Japan Italy Germany France Russia India China Brazil 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 P t(K t on ) Pt

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 US UK Japan Italy Germany France Russia India China Brazil

Zn

B) year 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 2005 201020152020 202520302035204020452050 Zn , K ton su mption , k ton/year A) Ni 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 _US UK Japan Italy Germany F B) 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Ni , K ton M etal con su year 0 1,000 2,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 France Russia India China Brazil year 0 50,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A) M e tal consumption, k ton/year year Li 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 US UK Japan Italy Germany France Russia India China Brazil B) year 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Li, K ton

Li

4 5 6 7

10.3 72

Several times amount of resources will be required by 2050.

reserve base Accumulated consumption _{from 2000 to 2050}

It will require several times amount of reserve by 2050: Ni,Mn,Li,In,Ga It will run over the amount of reserve base by 2050: Cu,Pb,Zn,Au,Ag,Sn

It will be close to the amount of reserve by 2050: Fe,Mo,W,Co,Pt,Pd

3 2 1 0 1 2 3 Fe Mn Zn Al Cr Pb Cu Ni Sn Mo W Sb RE Co Li Ag Pt In Au Ga Pd TMR reserves ses Already mined

Three statements on metal resource use.

Three statements on metal resource use.

Demand of many kinds of common

Demand of many kinds of common-- and rare

and

rare--metals will overshoot the confirmed

metals will overshoot the confirmed

resources not later than 2050.

resources not later than 2050.

Factor 8

Factor 8

in

in

resource view

resource view

is required to keep

is required to keep

sustainable resource use.

sustainable resource use.

Urban mining is promising to dig up metals

Urban mining is promising to dig up metals

close to the consumption.

close to the consumption.

Extraction Transportation Mining

( /1000km·t )

( /t-ore )

CO2 : 0.016t SOx : 0.22kg NOx : 0.017kg CO2 : 0.03t SOx : 0.10kg NOx : 0.25kg Products end Products end Resource end Resource end Metals

11,800km

6

t concentrate

300

t ore

1

t

metal

Nb

Cu

Cu

Material involves a large amount of materials behind.

Material involves a large amount of materials behind.

Li 1,500 Be 2,500 B 140 Na 50 Mg 70 Al 48 Si 34 Ca 90 Sc 2,000 Ti 36 V 1,500 Cr 26 Mn 14 Fe 8 Co 600 Ni 260 Cu 360 Zn 36 Ga 14,000 Ge 120,000 As 29 Se 70 Br2 1,500 Rb 133 Sr 500 Y 2,700 Zr 550 Nb 640 Mo 750 Ru 80,000 Rh 2,300,000 Pd 810,000 Ag 4,800 Cd 7 In 4,500 Sn 2,500 Sb 42 Te 270,000 La 3,100 Ce 2,000 Pr 8,000 Nd 3,000 Sm 9,000 Eu 20,000 Gd 10,000 Tb 30,000 Dy 9,000 Ho 25,000 Er 12,000 Tm 40,000 Yb 12,000 Lu 45,000 Hf 10,000 Ta 6,800 W 190 Re 20,000 Os 540,000 Ir 400,000 Pt 520,000 Au 1,100,000 Hg 2,000 Pb 28 Bi 180 Ra 28,000,000 Th 9,000 U 22,000

Li B e B F2 N e N a M g A l S i P 2 S C l2 K C a S c Ti V C r M n Fe C o N i C u Zn G a G e A s S e B r2 R b S r Y Zr N b M o R u R h P d A g C d In S n S b Te I2 C s B a La C e P r N d S m Eu G d Tb D y H o Er Tm Yb Lu H f Ta plastic 37.1 Pb 0.006 Sn 0.11 Al 2.65 製品重量 55g plastic 0.36 Pb 0.0002 Sn 0.28 Al 0.13 Ba 0.09 Cu 3.53 Ni 0.07 Co Fe 0.39 Cr 0.001 W 0.07

Cell Phone

Product

Product--end

end

Resource

Resource--end

end

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

W R e O s Ir P t A u H g

Tl P b B i R a Th U

coal oil stones aggregates plastic

products view 56g resouece view 31kg (g) (100g) plastic A u P d Fe C u C u A g Au 22 Ag 0.68 Pd 3.7 資源重量 31kg

Li B e B F2 N e N a M g A l S i P 2 S C l2 K C a S c Ti V C r M n Fe C o N i C u Zn G a G e A s S e B r2 R b S r Y Zr N b M o R u R h P d A g C d In S n S b Te I2 C s B a La C e P r N d S m Eu G d Tb D y H o Er Tm Yb Lu H f Ta W R e O s Ir P t A u H g 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Sn 3 Al 39 Ba 2.5 W 539 Au 2 Hg 8 Cu 1500 Ni 550 Fe 530 Mn3 Cr 0.9 Ca 6.3 Co280 Zn 39 製品重量 3.5g Sn 7.5 Al 1.9 Ba 128 W 102 Au 2200 Hg 16 Cu 540 Ni 143 Fe 4.3 Mn .02 Cr 0.02 Ca 5.7 Co163 Zn 0.2 資源重量

CPU (pentium III)

Product

Product--end

end

Resource

Resource--end

end

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

W R e O s Ir P t A u H g

Tl P b B i R a Th U

coal oil stones aggregates plastic

products view 3.5g resouece view 3.3kg (m g) (g) A u Fe C u C u C a W B a C o N i 資源重量 3.3kg

15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 Others Ag Pb Ti Mo Li Si RE Cr Pt B 560million ton/y 380million ton/y

20 Giga tons/year are mined at the resource end.

Increasing at the rate of 560million tons per year.

1.5 times serious than In 1960-70s 0 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 2004 1999 1994 1989 1984 1979 1974 1969 1964 1959 1954 1949 B Sr Mn Zn Zr Ni Sn Al Au Cu Fe

y = 441 x + 6,921,315 y = 1406.1x y = 17,967,817 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 R (g /c apt )

Transition of TMR per Capt. in Japan

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP ($/capt) TM R

1 000 000 000 000 1,500,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 2,500,000,000,000 3,000,000,000,000 Others Ag Pb Ti Mo Li Si RE Cr Pt B Sr Mn Zn 76G ton/y Σ (reserve) × (each TMR) 0 500,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 Zr Ni Sn Al Au Cu Fe 10 G ton/y 20 G ton/y 年 掘削総資源量 (ton)

Material consumption in resource view will be

TMR weighted

Durable period

(year)

=

∑

{(TMR)

_i

x (reserve)

_i

}

∑

{(TMR)

_i

x (annual consumption)

_i

}

Durable period

(year)

=

(reserve)

_i

(annual consumption)

_i

60

80

100

120

140

TMR weighted Durable period (year)

0

20

40

60

y = 441 x + 6,921,315 y = 1406.1x y = 17,967,817 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 R ( g/ ca pt ) Factor 1 2020 2030 1991 2001 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP ($/capt) TM R Factor 2 Factor 4 Factor 8 2050 2030

60

80

100

120

140

TMR weighted Durable period (year)

0

20

40

60

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

factor1

80

100

120

140

TMR weighted Durable period (year)

0

20

40

60

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

factor4 factor1

“factor 4” is not enough

“factor 4” is not enough

60

80

100

120

140

TMR weighted Durable period (year)

0

20

40

60

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

factor1 factor8 factor4

“factor 4” is not enough

“factor 4” is not enough

“Factor8” is required !

“Factor8” is required !

Three statements on metal resource use.

Three statements on metal resource use.

Demand of many kinds of common

Demand of many kinds of common-- and rare

and

rare--metals will overshoot the confirmed

metals will overshoot the confirmed

resources not later than 2050.

resources not later than 2050.

Factor 8

Factor 8

in

in

resource view

resource view

is required to keep

is required to keep

sustainable resource use.

sustainable resource use.

Urban mining

Urban mining

is promising to dig up metals

is promising to dig up metals

close to the consumption.

H2 He Li Be B C N2 O2 F2 Ne Na Mg Al Si P2 S Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br2 Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I2 Xe Ce Pr Nd Pm Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu Hf Ta Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Rn Fr Ra Ac Th Pa U Assumption of No-recycling 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 million ton Practical Effect of recycling

Japanese TMR (excluding exportation) at 2002

150

200

250

300

350

400

(K

t

on

)

0

50

100

150

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Au

Already mined.

By Nishiyama

40% 60% 80% 100%

already mined reserve

0% 20%

Hg Ag Sn Pb Au Zn _Mn Cu W Ni Mo Fe Co Cr Al

PGM

refiner

mining manufacturer

Dissipated

assembler use _{Used stock} recycler

In-Use stock

metal parts products

® ® ® ® country Industrial statistics small small ore Trade statistics

import import import import

Trade statistics

Dissipated stock

Meta; parts products E-reuse/

waste scrap ® ® ® ® I/O export I/O Trade statistics export export Trade statistics

Country’s accumulation can be estimated by considering metals which transported

in products.

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 UM in JP South Afriac

Australia Peru Rossia USA Indonesia Canada China

ammo unt ( to n ) Au: correspond to 16% of reserve Ag: correspond to 23% of reserve 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 am m ount (1000t on ) 16000 銅: 埋蔵量の8% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Chili UM in J P USA Indon esia Polan d Peru Mexic o China Aus tralia _Ross ia Zamb ia Kaza khstan cana da am m o u n t　( 1 ,0 00,0 00 to n ) 150 160 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 ブラ ジル ロシ ア オー ストラ リア ウク ライ ナ 中国 _インド カザ フス タン ベネズ エラ スウ ェー デン アメ リカ _日本 イラ ン 南ア フリカ 埋 蔵 量 　 (1, 000, 000ト ン ) Fe correspond to 1.7% od reserve Cu: correspond to 8% of reserve

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Australia Thai UM in JP Canada Zaire Maraysia

埋蔵 量　 (ト ン ) Ta: corresponds to 10% of reserve 41 000 39 000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

South Africa Rossia UM in Japan USA Canada

埋蔵 量　 (ト ン ) Pt group metals 4% of reserve 70 000 60 000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Japan Canada USA China Russia Peru

埋蔵 量　 (ト ン ) In : corresponds to 38% of reserves 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 China _Marysia Indo nesia Peru UM in J P Braz il Boliv ar Russi a Thai Aust ralia 埋蔵 量　( 1 ,0 0 0 ト ン ) Sn : correspond to 12% of reserves

Annual products 26 million In use 100million New 5million Replaced 21 million About 7mg Gold _{700kg Au} In-use stock About 7mg Gold Is contained 700kg Au Is in-use. 6.5 million phones are recycled. 50kg 100kg

Major part of urban mine is dissipated stock. But, at the current status,

We have a lot of things to do !! Recovered from

Used stock

0.1 1 10 100 CN 0.1 1 10 100 _US 100 BR 0.1 1 10 100 RU 0.1 1 10 100 JP 0.1 1 10 100 UA 0.1 1 10 100 IN 0.1 1 10 100 DE 0.1 1 10 100 KR 0.1 1 10 100 IT 0.1 1 10 100 KZ 0.1 1 10 100 CA 0.1 1 10 100 FR 0.1 1 10 100 GB 0.1 1 10 100 SE 0.1 1 10 100 MX 0.1 1 10 100 VE 0.1 1 10 100 TW 0.1 1 10 100 ES 0.1 1 10 100 IR 0.1 1 10 100 PL 0.1 1 10 100 TR 0.1 1 10 100 NL 0.1 1 10 100 RO 0.1 1 10 100 BE 0.1 1 10 100 AT 0.1 1 10 100 MR 0.1 1 10 100 SK

Fe

0.1 1 10 100 scrap s u p p ly c ons um pti o n cru d e iron

ore minig reserve

0.1 1 10 100 BR 0.1 1 10 100 AU 0.1 1 10 100 ZA 0.1 1 10 100 AR

Urban mine is located in the site of consumption.

They have possibility to relieve the

0.1 1 10 100 CN 0.1 1 10 100 US 0.1 1 10 100 JP 0.1 1 10 100 DE 0.1 1 10 100 _RU 0.1 1 10 100 _RU 0.1 1 10 100 PL 10 100 ID 0.1 1 10 100 MX 0.1 1 10 100 CA 0.1 1 10 100 BE 0.1 1 10 100 KR 0.1 1 10 100 KZ 0.1 1 10 100 IT 0.1 1 10 100 SE 0.1 1 10 100 AT 0.1 1 10 100 TW 0.1 1 10 100 ES 0.1 1 10 100 FR 0.1 1 10 100 TR 0.1 1 10 100 IR 0.1 1 10 100 IN 0.1 1 10 100 TH 0.1 1 10 100 GB 0.1 1 10 100 FI 0.1 1 10 100 MY

Cu

0.1 1 10 100 CL 0.1 1 10 100 PE 0.1 1 ID 0.1 1 10 100 AU 0.1 1 10 100 ZM 0.1 1 10 100 BR 0.1 1 10 100 AR 0.1 1 10 100 sc ra p s uppli e d cons umed mined or e re ser v e

Every country has thee possibility of urban mine as large as the country consumes.

ta l g rad e ( lo g ) ta l g rad e ( lo g )

Natural ore Urban mine

Domestic waste EXTRACTION METAL TRANSPORTATION Domestic waste EXTRACTION METAL Current status

Recycling should learn from the mining

Urban mine in future

me

ta

mass of treated material (log)

me

ta

mass of treated material (log)

CONCENTRATE ORE foreign waste WASTE foreign waste TRANSPORTATION

CN CH BE CZ DE FR KR MX RU US GB CA PL AT LX NO DM IE SE ND PT LT DK SV KZ FI EE IS RO HR SI BY HU UA MD SK 55 724 109 108 42 139 57 195 292 193 74 4900 4 18 13 56 22 87 140

7400400 Cu SCRAP

51 27 17 45 661 201 1950 86 139 42 57 64 160 52 49 77 41 183 AU ES HK IT JP PH ZA CO MY SG SA NG LB NZ SV GL BA KW BR IL TH GR TK PK MA IQ AE DZ YE SY CL 55 46 75 60 4900 18 150 110 10 10 1950 27 493 18 18 308 17 29 326 21 43

CN CH BE CZ DE FR KR MX RU US GB CA PL AT LX NO DM IE SE ND PT LT DK SV KZ FI EE IS RO HR SI BY HU UA MD SK

Al waste & scrap 1,000tons

Al waste & scrap 1,000tons

11 136 137 377 50 950 147 277 77 22 199 409 144 45 331 139 115 104 68 67 54 50 97 132 64 77 58 78 73 50 134 90 57 39 58 32 47 47 113 45 AU ES HK IT JP PH ZA CO MY SG SA NG LB NZ SV GL BA KW BR IL TH GR TK PK MA IQ AE DZ YE SY CL 1770 55 310 56 ₃₇ 332 208 68 216 137 51 >2$/kg 2-1$/kg 1$/kg>

CN CH BE CZ DE FR KR MX RU US GB CA PL AT LX

7204 Iron waste & scrap 1,000,000ton 7204 Iron waste & scrap 1,000,000ton

NO DM IE SE ND PT LT DK SV KZ FI EE IS RO HR SK 1.18 BY HU _5.6 1.0 3.2 1.3 1.5 1.0 3.9 10.1 9.6 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.1 2.0 6.1 1.4 4.3 3.14 1.23 0.88 1.15 2.62 1.03 3.95 1.46 0.93 0.78 1.27 1.15 1.5 1.93 1.28 1.73 1.68 1.98 1.88 AU ES HK IT JP PH ZA CO MY SG SA NG LB NZ SV GL BA KW BR IL TH GR TK PK 3.6 5.4 1.4 1.4 12.7 1.5 5.7 7.3 5.8 1.4 0.5 1.1 3.43 1.11

CN CH BE CZ DE FR KR MX RU US GB CA PL AT LX NO DM IE SE ND PT LT DK SV KZ FI EE IS RO HR SK 130 BY HU UA MD 0.52 0.36 0.48 0.32 0.35 0.71 0.73 0.43 0.64 0.33 1.97 0.45 0.05 0.45 0.44 1.22 0.32 0.35 0.38 0.38 162 205 135 144 150 166 112 195 ₂₀₀ 176 188 213 700 249 329 712 200 260 306 395

7213 Iron Rods ….. 1,000ton

International Recycling is changing into Multi-hub type.

We have a chance to create win-win relation

to exploit urban mine in each country.

AU ES HK IT JP PH ZA CO MY SG SA NG LB NZ SV GL BA KW BR IL TH GR TK PK MA IQ AE AG YE SY 0.89 0.90 1.97 5.76 0.83 0.57 1.26 0.85 0.23 0.27 2.06 0.40 150 202 380 240 338 170 163 502 354 174 143 174

China exports steel products

Three statements on metal resource use.

Three statements on metal resource use.

Demand of many kinds of common

Demand of many kinds of common-- and rare

and

rare--metals will overshoot the confirmed

metals will overshoot the confirmed

resources not later than 2050.

resources not later than 2050.

Factor 8

Factor 8

in

in

resource view

resource view

is required to keep

is required to keep

sustainable resource use.

sustainable resource use.

Urban mining

Urban mining

is promising to dig up metals

is promising to dig up metals

close to the consumption.

コード 品目 適用金属 直接輸出 / 需要 含波及輸出 / 需要 221101 プラスチック製品 _{Sb, Sn 0.046 0.242} 207909 その他の化学最終製品 Zn 0.158 0.342 2623021 メッキ鋼材 Zn,Sn 0.213 0.378 2721011 電線・ケーブル Cu, 0.141 0.393 2722011 伸銅品 Cu,Zn 0.251 0.468 2722021 アルミ圧延製品 Al 0.108 0.286 2722099 その他の非鉄金属製品 Ag 0.171 0.501 2811011 建設用金属製品 Fe 0.005 0.016 2812011 建築用金属製品 Fe,Al 0.002 0.031 289903 粉末や金製品 W,Co,Ta 0.089 0.296 2899021 金属製容器及び製缶板金製品 Zn,Sn, 0.007 0.164 289 金属製品 Ta 0.059 0.220 301 産業機械 Fe 0.255 0.352 321 電子機器 Fe,Pt,Ag 0.250 0.386 3341021 集積回路 Au 0.407 0.638 3359021 液晶素子 In 0.144 0.417 3359099 その他の電子部品 Au, In,Ta,Sn 0.190 0.553 340 電気器具 Ag 0.284 0.459 351 自動車 Fe,Pt 0.251 0.463 36 輸送機械 Fe 0.264 0.464 37 精密機械 0.246 0.299 3711011 カメラ Ag 0.377 0.439 39 その他 0.087 0.124

金属 世界の年間消費 （ｔ） 世界の埋蔵量 （ｔ） わが国の都市鉱山蓄積 （ｔ） 世界の埋蔵量に対するわが 国の都市鉱山の比率（％） 世界の年間消費 量との比 埋蔵量国 別順位 Al 177,000,000 25,000,000,000 60,000,000 0.24 0.3 12 Sb 11,200 1,800,000 340,000 19.13 30.7 3 Cr 20,000,000 810,000,000 16,000,000 2.08 0.8 4 Co 57,500 7,000,000 130,000 1.876 2.3 6 Cu 15,300,000 480,000,000 38,000,000 8.06 2.5 2 Au 2,500 42,000 6,800 16.36 2.7 ① In 450 2,800 1,700 61.05 3.8 ① Fe 858,000,000 79,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1.62 1.5 11 Pb 3,300,000 57,000,000 5,600,000 9.85 1.7 3 Li 21,100 4,100,000 150,000 3.83 7.4 6 Mo 179,000 8,600,000 230,000 2.69 1.3 6 Ni 1,550,000 64,000,000 1,700,000 2.70 1.1 9 Pt 445 71,000 2,500 3.59 5.7 3 RE 123,000 88,000,000 300,000 0.35 2.5 6 Ag 19,500 270,000 60,000 22.42 3.1 ① Ta 1,290 43,000 4,400 10.41 3.5 3 Sn 273,000 6,100,000 660,000 10.85 2.4 5 W 73,300 2,900,000 57,000 1.97 0.8 5 V 62,400 13,000,000 140,000 1.08 2.2 4 Zn 10,000,000 220,000,000 13,000,000 6.36 1.4 6

2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 電子 部品 100.7 86.3 85.1 80.4 70.9 106.1 59.3 51.2 50.9 45.1 36.6 0.36 36.252 31.068 30.636 28.944 25.524 38.196 21.348 18.432 18.324 16.236 13.176 メッキ 20.1 23.6 23.5 22.5 22.6 25 10.5 10.5 11.9 9.7 13.2 0.45 9.045 10.62 10.575 10.125 10.17 11.25 4.725 4.725 5.355 4.365 5.94 万年筆 0.015 0.015 0.01 0.01 万年筆 時計 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 陶磁器 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1 1 歯科用 20.9 21.4 22.4 24.1 20.8 11.9 12.2 13.8 13.7 12.9 14.5 In-use ストック

149

トン used ストック

42

トン スクラップ

10.3

トン

2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 自動車 38.5 34.3 32.7 29.6 26.5 24.9 26.5 22.4 15.5 13.1 12.9 0.54 20.79 18.522 17.658 15.984 14.31 13.446 14.31 12.096 8.37 7.074 6.966 電気・ 電子 10.2 8.9 8.7 6.2 10.6 33.6 32.8 34.7 45.2 32.2 51.4 0.61 6.222 5.429 5.307 3.782 6.466 20.496 20.008 21.167 27.572 19.642 31.354 化学 1 3 1 25 1 2 0 9 0 8 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 化学 1.3 1.25 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 石油化 学 0.3 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 ガラス 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.6 2 2 2.5 2.6 2.5 3.3 歯科用 13.7 13.7 12.6 15.7 14.8 14.6 17 18.4 19.3 18.4 18 装飾 26.2 23.3 25.7 29.4 27.7 37.6 44.4 43.4 46.6 49.6 49.6 In-use ストック

169

トン used ストック

35.8

トン 二次回収

3.25

トン

2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 automo bile 38.5 34.3 32.7 29.6 26.5 24.9 26.5 22.4 15.5 13.1 12.9 0.54 20.79 18.522 17.658 15.984 14.31 13.446 14.31 12.096 8.37 7.074 6.966 電気・ 電子 10.2 8.9 8.7 6.2 10.6 33.6 32.8 34.7 45.2 32.2 51.4 0.61 6.222 5.429 5.307 3.782 6.466 20.496 20.008 21.167 27.572 19.642 31.354 chemic al 1.3 1.25 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 石油化 学 0.3 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 ガラス 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.6 2 2 2.5 2.6 2.5 3.3 歯科用 13.7 13.7 12.6 15.7 14.8 14.6 17 18.4 19.3 18.4 18 装飾 26.2 23.3 25.7 29.4 27.7 37.6 44.4 43.4 46.6 49.6 49.6 In-use ストック

169

トン used ストック

35.8

トン 二次回収

3.25

トン

Cu 19% Al 9% Fe 8% Ni 1% Sn 1% Cr 0.9% Pb 0.7% Zn 0.7% W 0.2% Ta 0.3% 採掘限界品位と携帯中の金属成分 W 0.2% Ta ( 300) Ta 0.3% Ag 0.2% Ti 0.2% Au 0.03%

残りは廃棄物

processing Business site building automobile electric

appliance Miscellaneousarticles IT

euipment dissection On-site dissection 56 ₃₅ 6 60 46 37 34 6 collect ? 227companies －BM －CM －PM －RM Re-melt dissection 11 102 87 619₁₃ 11 17 6 separation extract export ?

製造工程 事業者 建設 車 家電 雑品 電子 切断・分離 解体収集 回収 溶解原料 取出し 輸出 concentration 抽出

わが国の都市鉱山蓄積は、 世界の年間消費を地球何個分まかなえるか 積 量/ 世界の年間 消費量

6.8kt

6.8kt

60kt

60kt

660kt

660kt

2.5kt

2.5kt

150kt

150kt

1.7kt

1.7kt

注) 酸化物を含む A u A g C u Fe P b S n C o P t V Li T a In 日本の都市鉱 山蓄 積

6.8kt

6.8kt

60kt

60kt

38Mt

38Mt

1.2Gt

1.2Gt

5.6Mt

5.6Mt

660kt

660kt

130kt

130kt

140kt

140kt

4.4kt

4.4kt

PGM

steel For building

For automobile automobile

domestic export Electric parts Audiovisual equipments Metal production Metal

demand Semi-manufactured Final product

domestic

export

54%

gold _applicationElectric dental computer Semi-conductor Electric circuit IT equipment others domestic export domestic export

Exported amount of metal can be estimated by using the I/O table.

CN CH BE CZ DE FR KR MX RU US GB CA PL AT LX NO DM IE SE ND PT LT DK SV KZ FI EE IS HU HR SK 118 6 84 31 21 31 1538 221 405 5 499 11 520 153 116 127 334 338 278 127 75 99 74 58 118 52 72 42 70 43 314 40 AU ES HK IT JP PH ZA

810530 Co waste & scrap 1ton

CO MY SG SA NG LB NZ SV GL BA KW BR IL TH 20 6 1392 12 80 19 9 1 3 659 279 71 49 >20$/kg 20-10$/kg 10$/kg>

日本 米国 中国 94 11,484 C 5.7 907 O 25. 408 S 42. 1,279 S 30. 6.7 C 336. 37 S 49. 65_{O 17.} 180 O 21. ₂₂₃ S 35. 105 C 24. 80 O 8.. 268 S 20... 2,450 C 2.1 172 S 39 49 C 70 ｱｼﾞｱ 諸国 ﾏﾚｰｼｱ 2,218 C 12. 9,812 O 0.1 552 C 1.6 473_{O 22.} 94 O 20. 1,593 S 18. 2,347,803 C 0.01 11,300 C 0.07 C 2.1 重量トン Kg価格 $ 品目種別 O 酸化コバルト C コバルト製品 S スクラップ

非鉄では国際流通で増値するスクラップ

(

廃棄物

)

も

国際商品化する使用済スクラップ

• 最大の鉄スクラップ輸入国は トルコ

• 棒鋼最大輸入地域は

中東諸国

• 棒鋼輸出二位は

中国

• 東南アジア、東南欧で 安価な金属屑を輸入

グレードアップして輸出

「発展途上国が自国内の需要のために先進国から使用済屑を集めている」

は もう古い

国際的な資源循環モデルとしての今後のあり方を

!

国際商品化した使用済物を、 大量に集めて資源化して利益を上げている国がある 製品 素材 製造 使用 製品 素材 製造 使用 国内の循環利用にまわるべき資源が、 発展途上国の需要に流れている 製品 素材 製造 使用 製品 素材 製造 使用 製品 製造 使用 製造 リサイクルビジネスの国際的奪い合い のなかで、リサイクル資源に一番近い 国内リサイクル産業がいかに発展していくか

循環主体の偏在

R)

資源の偏在

(

製錬・精製業

)

T)

技術の偏在

(

製造業

)

U)

消費の偏在

(

販売・回収業

)

Æ 蓄積の偏在

アフリカ アジア 日本 抽出 Æ 廃棄物 混合 劣化・分散 エントロピーを 増やしている と情緒的にいえる

蓄積

偏在

• R),T),U)

の偏在をいかに最適に組み合わせるか

• U)

⇒

T)

は 抽出がない

T)

の増値困難

• U)

⇒

R)

は

R)

サイトに

bads

も送り込む

R)

の増値困難

⇒ 増値可能にする U)⇒R) の 工程が必要

S) 分離・濃縮 separate & stock

ミッシングリング

_{= .}

消費端に密接した分離・濃縮主体

• Stock to Reserve approach

• S)

自体が価値を増す

• R)

• R)

の増値 生産性の向上

Æ

bads

の減少

•

エコデザインとの結合で、高増値型

U)

⇒

T)

の可能

性も出てくる

循環主体の偏在

R)

資源の偏在

(

製錬・精製業

)

T)

技術の偏在

(

製造業

)

U)

消費の偏在

(

販売・回収業

)

Æ 蓄積の偏在

アフリカ アジア 日本 抽出 Æ 廃棄物 混合 劣化・分散 エントロピーを 増やしている と情緒的にいえる

蓄積

偏在

• R),T),U)

の偏在をいかに最適に組み合わせるか

• U)

⇒

T)

は 抽出がない

T)

の増値困難

• U)

⇒

R)

は

R)

サイトに

bads

も送り込む

R)

の増値困難

⇒ 増値可能にする U)⇒R) の 工程が必要

S) 分離・濃縮 separate & stock

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

/ y

ea

r (Mt

)

f=1 till 2050

f=2 by 2050

f=4 by 2050

f=8 by 2050

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

TM

R

/

_{f=16 by 2050}

f=5 by 2050

f=6 by 2050

Lifestyle change into “Factor8” is required !

Lifestyle change into “Factor8” is required !

Cr 1200Mt 20Mt Cu 480Mt 15.3Mt Mn 440Mt 11Mt Zn 220Mt 10Mt Ni 64Mt 1.55Mt Pb 57Mt 3.3Mt Fe 858Mt 79Gt Al P 177Mt 29Gt K Mg Ti 18Gt 145Mt 30Mt 4Mt 10Mt 8.3Gt _{2.2Gt 1.3Gt} Zr 25kt 0.9kt I 15Mt 38Mt V 13Mt 62.4kt Mo _8.6Mt 179kt Co 7Mt 57.5kt Sn 6.1Mt 273kt Nb 4.4Mt 59.9kt Li 4.1Mt 21.1kt W 2.9Mt 73.3kt Y _540kt 8.9kt Bi 320kt 5.6kt Ag 270kt 19.5kt Se 82kt 1.39kt PGM 71kt 445t Hg 45kt 1.4kt Ta 43kt 1.3kt Au 42kt 2.5kt In _2.8kt 450t 20年 50年 100年 200年 20Mt 15.3Mt 11Mt 10Mt 1.55Mt 3.3Mt

30

40

50

60

Fe

Al

Cu

Pb

Sn

0

10

20

2

006

2

004

2

002

2

000

1

998

1

996

1

994

1

992

1

990

1

988

1

986

1

984

1

982

1

980

Zn

Ag

Au

steel For building

For automobile automobile

domestic export Electric parts Audiovisual equipments Metal production Metal

demand Semi-manufactured Final product

domestic

export

54%

gold _applicationElectric dental computer Semi-conductor Electric circuit IT equipment others domestic export domestic export

Exported amount of metal can be estimated by using the I/O table.