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2.4 Attempts to Unfold the Black Box in the Policy Process

2.4.1 Theories and Models of the Policy-Making Process

2.4.1.2 Policy Formulation

The rational-comprehensive model, incremental model and system model are the earlier models that describe policy formulation development process.

Rational-Comprehensive model (Figure 2-4) is an ideal model, applying techno- logical tools where policy makers are value free/neutral, policy makers work in isolation with preference on the existing alternatives. In reality policy/decision makers consist of the legislative, judiciary, executive, administrators, interest group, concerned citizens, and the mass that for instance, have similar/dissimilar beliefs, values, and perspectives.

Figure 2-4: A Rational Model of a Decision System Source: Adapted from Dye (2002).

Incremental Model (Lindblom, 1990) (Figure 2-5) is similar to single-loop learning (Argyris and Schon, 1978; Argyris, 1976 & 1999) (Figure 2-6).

Figure 2-5 : Incremental Model Source: Dye (2002), p.20.

Public policy formulation is a continuation of previous government actions with only minor modifications (Lester and Stewart, 2000). This occurs in the absence of societal consensus on public policy concern. This gives opportunity for pluralist government to continue with existing policies whereby the government then can engage in overall policy planning toward specific policy goals. This means policy makers and especially the decision makers consider only some alternatives for dealing with a problem. The different are only incremental from existing policies. It is merely redefining the problem confronting the decision maker. Incrementalism only allows for countless ends-means and means-ends adjustments of problem in public policies. Incremental decision making is only remedial and is geared more to the amelioration of present, concrete social imperfections rather than to promote future social goals. This model ignore that environment is dynamic not incremental.

This incremental model is similar to single-loop learning. Single-loop learning occurs when matches are created, or when mismatches are rectified by altering actions. Double-loop learning occurs when mismatches are rectified by firstly,

examining and secondly, altering the governing variables and following up with the actions.

Figure 2-6: Single-Loop and Double-Loop Learning Source: Argyris (1999), p.68.

System model (Figure 2-7) by Easton (1979) is policy formulation in respond to demands for new policies or support for the existing policies. His policy formation proposes that inputs which become demands and supports are converted by the processes of the political system such as the legislature and judiciary.

These then turn into outputs, i.e., policies and these in turn have consequences both for the system and the environment in which the system exists. Demand especially in limited or less societal involvement may be internal to the system for example political parties or interest groups. Demand is external to the system like ecology, economy, culture and demography if this is dominant.

A political system generates support by fulfilling demands of the mass. The outputs of the system are based on political decisions of public policies. They fulfill daily demands or system members anticipate the government as being generally favorable to their interests. Failure of a government to produce effective public policies (outputs) for the members of a system may lead to demand for changing the current government.

Dye (2002) modifies the model by including socioeconomic development variables in the states such as urbanization and industrialism, income and education which create demands and supports on political system which in turn produce state policy outcomes.

This model does not have variation in needs or the degree of seriousness of the problem. The model is vague on whether political parties are demands or an institution. The model has boundary problems as to what should be included in the environment of the political system.

Figure 2-7: The Systems Framework Source: Easton (1979), p.112.

The well known work by Kingdon (1984) (Figure 2-8) is more comprehensive.

Kingdom’s model begins with a set of knowledge and societal predispositions such as value, culture, and politics. Social predispositions set the context for issues getting on the agenda. The issues from many areas would mutually influence each other. His conceptual model is based on three streams:

1. Problem stream-the definition of the addressed problem

2. Policy stream-technical feasibility of dealing with the problem, the availability of the technology, and public acceptance of solution and legislation

3. Political stream-national mood, public opinion, electoral politics and interest-group activity

The three streams combine as policy window. Opportunities are opened and policy entrepreneurs are responsible not only for prompting relevant stakeholders and important people to notice and take interest, “but also coupling solutions to problems and for coupling both problems and solutions to politics”.3 There are times issue could lead to solution and influenced individuals to make issue into agenda status. Kingdon (1984) also acknowledged the various variables during the agenda setting process.

Figure 2-8: Kingdon Model

Source: Lester & Stewart (2000), p.72.

All these models focus on stages and factors in agenda setting and policy formulation. Cob and Elder (1972), Davies (1974), Cobb, Ross and Ross (1976), and Nelson (1984) explain that shared belief of the society become shared perception of the government; the type of issue determine what issue reach to agenda setting and the stages on how issue become agenda. Sabatier and his associates actors learning and belief system coupled with stable system and external system lead to policy change. Kingdon model explain in detail issues in

3 Kingdon, 1984, p.21

the inputs to be potential agenda and variables that act as drivers for the issue to reach the agenda setting process.