6.1.1 General situation
Source: (WTTC, 2016) Figure 6-1. Total contribution of tourism to world economy in term of value
In the last decades, the world economy watches the increasingly development of the tourism industry. In 1995, travel and tourism totally contributed to the world economy more than US$4,138 billion. This figure continuously increased to more than US$5,674 billion after ten years, 2005. In this year, 2017, its contribution is predicted to increase to more than US$7,884 billion, equals almost as twice as previous last two decades. In the next ten years, in 2027, its total contribution is projected to approximately US$11,513 billion. Along with the increase of the contribution to GDP, tourism’s contribution to the world employment is also increasingly as the same manner with the GDP contribution.
In 1995, tourism totally contributed 230,838 thousand jobs to the world employment.
Every year, its contribution grows more than 1% comparison to the prior year. After ten years, in 2005, its contribution increases to 256,177 thousand jobs. This figure increases to 286,181 thousand jobs in 2015. It is predicted to increase to 381,700 thousand jobs in 2027, equals to 1.65 times in comparison to the last two decades.
150000 170000 190000 210000 230000 250000 270000 290000 310000
3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Contribution of tourism to world economy
Total contribution to GDP (bn US$ real prices, Primary axis)
Total contribution to Employment (000 Jobs, Secondary axis)
Source: (WTTC, 2016) Figure 6-2. Total contribution of tourism to the world economy in term of share
In term of the world economy structure, the share of tourism to world economy in both GDP and employment fluctuates during last two decades due to many reasons, such as the economic crisis, climate changes, disasters, disease, … or the shifts of other industries in the economy. In the late nineties of previous century, the total share of tourism in the world economy seemed reach to peak at the 11.16% of the world GDP. This time, the contribution of tourism to world employment was also reach to 10.57%, the highest proportion over the last two decades. After this peak, the share of tourism in the world economy in term of GDP and employment trended to reduce annually. In 2010, the contribution of tourism is at lowest peak for both GDP (9.32%) and employment (8.96%).
After 2010, the contribution of tourism in term of world GDP and employment tend to increase continuously. GDP of tourism occupies from 9.32% in 2010 to 10.18% in 2016 and projected to 11.42% in 2027; employment also increases with the same fashion to GDP, it is from 8.96% in 2010 to 9.64% in 2016 and predicted to continue to increase to 11.13% in 2027.
8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Contribution of tourism to world economy (%)
Percentage of GDP % share of total employment
6.1.2 Inbound tourism and its receipts ranking
Source: A JNTO's document based on data of the UNWTO and National tourism offices.
Notes:
1. Numbers shown above are provisional values as of June 2015.
2. Values for 2013 were used for the UAE because values for 2014 are unknown.
3. International tourism receipts don’t include international passenger fares.
4. Data on international tourism receipts may be updated or modified from time to time. Calculated values of international tourism receipts are affected by changes in the exchange rates of foreign currencies to the U.S. dollar. Thus, rankings are subject to change depending on the timing of data collection.
Figure 6-3. Ranking international tourism expenditure by country/region (US$100 mil.) Comparing to other countries in the world, in term of tourism receipt, inbound tourism to Japan is ranked quite high in the world. The information in 2015 indicates that receipts from inbound tourism to Japan is ranked as 17th in the world and 8th among Asian economies. The total spending from foreigner tourists to Japan economy was approximately US$ 25.5 bn.
Source: JNTO, extracted from White book of MLIT, 2015 Figure 6-4. Trend of inbound tourist to Japan
Figure 6-4 indicates how inbound tourism is effected by the international and domestic events. After the campaign applied to international tourists to Japan started in 2003, the visitors to Japan increases continuously for five years. On September 15th, 2008, the failure of Lehman brothers bank, one of the four biggest investment banks of United State.
The effects of bankruptcy of Lehman had rippled throughout global financial markets and of course tourist arrivals to Japan and its receipts were not out of these impacts. A year later, 2009 watched the fall of the inbound arrivals from 8,350,000 to 6,790,000 tourists.
Then in 2010, the inbound tourism seemed be recovered to equivalent to that in the year before Lehman’s shock. However, the inbound tourism demand fell down under upon impact of the Great Earthquake happened in 2011.
Source: (MLIT, JTA, 2016) Note:
(1) Since the survey was not conducted in the period from January to March in 2010, those values have been substituted for by the average of the values calculated from the period from April to December.
(2) The value of inbound tourism consumption of 2011 presented in this figure differs to the value used for CGE analysis. The reason maybe because of the difference in the way of estimation. The value used for CGE analysis is estimated based on the average consumption per tourist obtained from the survey multiple with the total number of inbound visitors of the same calendar year.
Figure 6-5. Consumption trend of inbound tourism
The same with the fluctuation of inbound tourist arrivals, the inbound tourist consumption in 2011 decreases from JPY 11,490 million to JPY 8,135 million due to the Great Japan Earthquake. After the disaster, the inbound tourist arrivals as well as the inbound tourist receipts rapidly increased. In 2015, after four years, the inbound tourist arrivals were approximately 20 million, equaled to as more than three times as that in 2011. The total receipts from inbound tourism was JPY 34,771,000 million, as more than four times as that in 2011.
6.1.3 Domestic tourism
The same as inbound tourism, domestic tourism in Japan is also effected by the global shocks, and especially the domestic shocks, for instant, Japan Great Earthquake. The Figure 6-6 and Figure 6-7 show the situation of domestic tourism of Japan in five years, from 2010 to 2015 in term of both number of travelers and tourism expenditure. In 2011, since the effect of the Japan Great Earthquake, the tourists fell down from 317.530 million overnight travelers and 314.060 million day-trips to 313.560 and 298.960 overnight and day-trip travelers respectively. Along with the fall down of traveler number, the domestic tourism receipts also decreased from JPY 20.4 to JPY19.7 trillion from 2010 to 2011.
After this year, in 2013, the demand of domestic tourism and its expenditure seemed be recovered, to be 320.420 million overnights and 310.530 million day-trips; and domestic
expenditure increased to 20.2 trillion in 2013.
Source: Survey of Trend in Travel and Tourism Consumption (JTA) Note: Figures of 2015 are preliminary. Note that the preliminary figures in the Survey of Trend in Travel and Tourism Consumption are likely to be greater than the confirmed ones; therefore, the 2015 figures are only calculated for reference Figure 6-6. Fluctuation of domestic travelers in Japan
Source: Survey of Trend in Travel and Tourism Consumption (JTA) Note: Figures of 2015 are preliminary, for reference only. The preliminary figures in the Survey of Trend in Travel and Tourism Consumption are likely to be greater than the confirmed ones;
Figure 6-7. Domestic travelers’ expenditure, same-day trips and overnight trips
In 2014, maybe, the Government’s decision on consumption tax policy of increasing from 5% to 8%. This decision led the Japanese economy grows negatively for two continuous quarters in 2014. This event is supposed as the main reason led domestic travelers decided to cut down their domestic traveling. During the period from 2013 to 2014, the domestic tourism fell from 320.420 to 297.880 million overnight travelers; from 310.530 to 297.340 million same day-trips. The expenditure also fell down from 20.2 trillion in 2013 to 18.5 trillion JPY in 2014. In the same period, the domestic travelers tend to reduce their
average length of stay. Each traveler reduced their average trip number from 2.3 overnight trips per person in 2013 to 2.1 in 2014.
Source: Survey of Trend in Travel and Tourism Consumption (JTA) Note: Figures of 2015 are preliminary, for reference only. The preliminary figures in the Survey of Trend in Travel and Tourism Consumption are likely to be greater than the confirmed ones;
Figure 6-8. Overnight trips per person and nights per person of domestic tourism
6.1.4 Outbound tourism
Source: Ministry of Justice, MLIT, JTA (2016) Figure 6-9. Trend of oversea travel from Japan
Outbound tourism from Japan contains two categories, which are oversea tourists travelling for business and for recreational purposes. Being different to domestic and inbound tourism, outbound tourism has different trend. Since 2003, from 13.3 million oversea visitors, outbound tourism trend to increase continuously to 17.53 million in 2006.
At this period, under the global economic crisis, the demand of oversea visitors tended to
go down. It sharply reduced 17.53 million travelers in 2006 to 15.45 million in 2009.
Despite the Great Earthquake happened in 2011, it seemed not effect to the demand of the oversea traveling. The oversea demand in 2009 was 15.45 million, continuously increased and reached to peak as 18.49 million in 2012. From this year, the tourism demand trended to reduce every year to more than 16.21 million in 2015.
Source: Ministry of Justice, JNTO, MLIT, JTA (2016) Figure 6-10. Trend of foreign visitors and Japanese oversea
Figure 6-10 illustrates the difference in the trends of inbound and outbound travelers.
From 1960s to 2010s inbound tourism demand tended to increase. During late 2000s and early 2010s, under the impacts of global shocks, such as climate changes, economic crisis, and natural disaster, the inbound tourism to Japan fluctuated and then rapidly increased maybe because of inbound tourism campaign promotion. Differing to inbound, outbound tourism increased until 1995 then fluctuated during the time after that. After 2010s, in contrast to inbound tourism, oversea tourism tended to reduce the demand.