39 | P a g e Financial barriers: Renewable energy is still in its infancy hence the prices for installations, equipment and support mechanism are high. This is especially true for solar PV panels. This could be alleviated through financial incentives by the government. Also, as ratified signatories of the Kyoto Protocol, ASEAN NICs are eligible for financial support and emissions trading through the Clean Development Mechanism.
Technical barriers: Most RE are small scale and connected to the distribution grid instead of the generation grid. A traditional network is usually uni-flow, from generation to transmission and then through the distribution network to the consumers. Injecting power at distribution level imposes some connectivity and control challenges. This has been addressed with the introduction with new relays and better communications technologies.
Knowledge barrier: New technologies mean that there is less expertise on the area. Therefore, it is essential to develop local technical competence through workshops and knowledge exchange with experts in the field. Market awareness and acceptance can also be created through information and education campaigns to attract more investors and human personnel.
A strong local support system will ensure a sustainable RE industry.
Risk barrier: As historical data on renewable energy management and operation is fairly limited, it is possible to under- or over-estimate the risk of RE ventures which will have financial repercussions.
Institutional barrier: In the early stages of RE development, there was poor co-ordination between the various government agencies and the private sectors. Overlapping functions, elusive funding and unclear objectives combined to hamper the early development of RE. In response, governments in ASEAN NICs have attempted to streamline the agencies to complement each other for more effective co-ordination.
In summary, most of the barriers are common teething problems of a new technology. As the RE technology becomes more common and prevalent, situation is expected to improve.
40 | P a g e secure, reliable electrical supply. In terms of market structure, it was found that the current power industry structure is only partially deregulated for each country and as of last year, only Philippines seems to be heading towards full deregulation.
Existing energy resources are fossil-fuel heavy, and studies are underway in each country to diversify resources using both renewable energy and nuclear energy sources. So far, renewable energy implementations have been found to be more encouraging; however, the small capacity makes it almost impossible for renewable energy to completely replace fossil fuels, thus the interest in nuclear energy.
Further work will be done on a single ASEAN NIC to study in more detail the three options for the future network. The three options are continuing with current practices, increasing renewable energy or introducing nuclear energy into the mix. The advantages and disadvantages of each option will be assessed from the point of financial and environmental costs.
41 | P a g e Chapter 2 References
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44 | P a g e
Chapter 3
Forecasting in Power Systems
Forecasting is a vital process in power systems planning and operations.
Forecast information for load and prices are the basis of important d ecisions such as physical asset investment, contract assessments, policy definitions and operational decision implementations [3-1]. This chapter provides an overview of two types of forecasting in the power systems, load and price forecasting, and enumerates the different forecasting methods available. The methods are then illustrated to predict two situations. The first is the long -term load forecast for the Malaysian network and the second is the short-term price forecast for the PJM network.
1. Forecasting in Power Systems
Unlike other tangible commodities, electricity cannot be stored. Instead, electricity must be generated and delivered at the very instant it is required. In this lies the motivation for accurate forecasting of electricity. Overestimation of demand will result in wastage of energy and resources, and if too low, the system is vulnerable to catastrophic collapses. Moreover, electricity supply and electricity demand balance must be maintained at every instant. An imbalance, even for a short while, will cause system frequency and voltage to fluctuate.
Therefore, the electricity demand must be constantly monitored, and sufficient generation capacity must be constantly available to meet this demand.
In the traditional electricity supply industry, most utilities were centralized and government owned. Electricity forecasting focused on predicting consumer demand, and driving the necessary socio-economical development as required by the national policy. Depending on historical customer consumption, electricity tariffs, available technologies and fuel availability, the electricity providers are able to easily forecast customer needs and then proceed to tailor their investments to meet those needs and calculate the resulting profits.
45 | P a g e Deregulation and decentralization of electricity delivery structure introduced wholesale trading and retail marketing of electricity. A healthy number of competitors in the market are expected to create a more efficient electricity industry with cheaper prices for consumers and less dependent on government resources. However, a market structure introduces a new element of price risk into the electricity industry. An accurate forecast of electricity prices has now become an important power systems planning problem. Price forecasting methods had to be developed quickly to meet this requirement and there are now several methods available for use in the industry.