第2章 乳牛のアカバネ病ワクチンの経済評価 第1節‑ j緒言
第5節 ≡結語
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63
studies10f veterinary economicsin bovine Akabane disease
andits epidemic forecast
HORIKITA Tetsuya
Akabane diseaseis aninfection with clinicalsigns
of congenitalmalformation and abortionin ruminants･
The diseaseis cause･d by Bunyavl[idae BunyavjTUS,Which
is translnitted by blood‑SuCkinginsects such as biting
midges.
Vaccination against bovine Akabane vlruS Can
effectively prevent this disease;however,nO StudY Of the
economic effects of Akabane vaccine has been reported･
The present study was conducted to evaluate the reduction
in milk yield due to abnormalparturition caused by
Akabane disease so as to assess the economic effects of
the vaccination;We have also attempted to forecast
epidemics of Akabane diseasein dairy cattle bY uSing the
blooming day of the Ume(Japanese apricot)as phenology.
1.Milkloss due to Akabane diseasein dairy cattle.
The data for 38 HoIstein cows with abnormal
parturitions due to Akabane disease during the period from
September1998 to March1999 were collectedin Chiba
Prefecture. The mean and standard deviation of the rate
Of reduction of the milk yield of 38 cows after abnormal
64
parturition caused by Akabane disease was found to be
12.7±14.2%. The means and standard deviations of the
rate of reduction of five cows calving abnorma11y during
thelactation period,13 cows calving abnormally during
the dry period,and 20 cows calving abnormally during the
due date to calve were ‑21.2±6.6%,‑18.4±16.3%, and
‑6.9±12.3%, reSpeCtively. In the present study,We
demonstrated that the rate of reductionin the milk yield
in cows affected by Akabane diseaseis more thanlO%,and
that the economicimpact to dairy farmsis severe.
2.The economic assessment of vaccination against Akabane
diseasein dairy cattle.
From May1998 to April1999,the data for 655 dairy
Cattle,including 482 vaccinated and172 non vaccinated
Cattle,kept on 25 farmsin the Sousa district,Chiba
Prefecture,Japan,Were COllected to analyze the economic
and preventive effects of vaccination against Akabane
disease. The ratios of abnormalcalving due to Akabane
disease for the vaccinated and non vaccinated groups were
found to be O.6% and 27.7%,reSpeCtively. The relative
risk between these groups,the attributable risk,and the
attributable fraction were 46.2, 27.1%, and 97.8%,
respectively. Economiclosses were estimated based on
theloss due to dead calves,the veterinarY eXpenSeS due
65
to abnormalcalving,and theloss of milk production. The
totalloss in the non vaccinated group was ¥5,597,115
(averageloss per head of¥32,353),and threelosses(dead Calves,the veterinary expenses due to abnormalcalving,
and theloss of milk production)and vaccination cost of
the vaccinated group was¥1,318,931(averageloss per head
Of ¥2,736). Theloss for non vaccinated cattle wasll.8
times greater than that for vaccinated cattle. Therefore,
VaCCination against Akabane disease has a significant
PreVentive effect and appears to be economically
justified under the condition of outbreaks occurring Within a 5‑10‑year CyCleinJapan.
3･Epidemic forecast of bovine Akabane disease using the
blooming day of the Ume(Japanese apricot)as phenology.
More effective vaccination against bovine Akabane
disease occurringin summeris possibleif the epidemic
Can be forecast during the previous spring.In the
present study,the relationship between Akabane disease
and meteorology was investigated by examining
meteorologicalphenomena of the years of Akabane disease
Outbreaks and high neutralizing antibody rates of cattle
from1970 to1998･It was found thatin outbreak years,
the average temperatureinJanuaryin the prefecture was
higher on average･In addition,the blooming day of the
66