7
NPT
ࡢ㠀᰾ಖ᭷ᅜ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡢඹឤࢆᚓࡿࡇࡶ࡛ࡁࡓࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࣇ࣐ࢹ࣮ࢿࢪ࣮ࣕࢻ ᨻᶒୗࡢࣛࣥࡣࠊྠࡌࡃ
NPTຍ┕ᅜ࡛࠶ࡿ⡿ᅜࡀࣛࣥࡢࠕṇᙜ࡞ࠖ᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨࢆㄆࡵ
ࡊࡿࢆᚓ࡞࠸≧ἣࢆ⏕ࡳฟࡍࡓࡵࠊᙉຊ࡞ไୗ࡛ከ࡞≛≅ࢆᡶ࠸ࡘࡘࠊ᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨ
ࢆ㐍ࡵ࡚ࡁࡓࡍࡽゝ࠼ࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ
ࡑࡋ࡚⡿ᅜࡢ࢜ࣂ࣐ᨻᶒࡣࣛࣥࡢྜពࢆᶍ⣴ࡍࡿ୰࡛ࡦࡲࡎ⃰⦰ࡢᨺᲠ࠸࠺
┠ⓗࢆᲴୖࡆࡋࠊࡇࢀࢆཷࡅ࡚ࣛࣥഃ࡛ࡶࠕᶵࡣ⇍ࡋࡓࠖࡢㄆ㆑ࡀ⏕ࡌࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡶ
࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࣛࣥࡀ┠ᣦࡍࠕ᪥ᮏࡀ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࠖ⮬ຊ࡛ࡢ᰾ࡢᖹ⏝ࡶ᰾⇞ᩱࢧ
ࢡࣝࡢ㐩ᡂࡶࠊࡍ࡚࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰ᢏ⾡࠶ࡗ࡚ࡢࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࡢᢏ⾡⮬యࡢࠕᨺᲠࠖࡣ
ࣛࣥࡋ࡚Ỵࡋ࡚ཷࡅධࢀࡽࢀ࡞࠸࠸࠺⪃࠼ࡀࠊࣛࣥഃࡣ࠶ࡗࡓᛮࢃࢀࡿࠋࡑࡋ
࡚ᅇࡢྜពࡣࠊࣛࣥ⃰⦰ᨺᲠࢆồࡵࡿࡇࡀ㠀⌧ᐇⓗ࡞ࡿࣞ࣋ࣝࡲ࡛ࠊࣛࣥࡢ
᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨࡀ
IAEA┘どୗ࡛㐍ᤖࡋࡓࡇ࡛ࠊྍ⬟࡞ࡗࡓࡶࡢ࡛ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ
㸱㸬ࣛࣥ᰾΅ࡢᬻᐃⓗᩍカ
ࡇࢀࡲ࡛ぢ࡚ࡁࡓ࠾ࡾࠊ
2013ᖺ
11᭶
24᪥ࡢࢪࣗࢿ࣮ࣈྜពࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࡓせᅉࡣ」ᩘ
࠶ࡗࡓ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋࣛࣥᑐࡍࡿᙉຊ࡞⤒῭ไࡣ☜ࣛࣥࡀ┿᰾΅ྲྀ
ࡾ⤌ࡴせᅉ࡞ࡗࡓࡀࠊࣛࣥࢆࠕຊ࡛ࡡࡌఅࡏࡿࠖไࡀࡓ࠼ຠᯝࢆ࠶ࡆࡓࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ ࡑࢀࡔࡅ࡛᰾΅ࡢࡁ࡞㐍ᒎࢆᮃࡴࡇࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞ࡗࡓ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ᰾΅ࡢ㐍ᒎࡣ☜
ᐇࠊ⡿ᅜഃࡢṌࡳᐤࡾࡶྍḞ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ⡿ᅜࡀࠕ࡞ࡐࠖṌࡳᐤࡗࡓ
㛵ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊࡑࡢ⌮⏤ࡣ」ᩘ࠶ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡀࠊ⡿ᅜࡀࣛࣥᙉ࠸ᅽຊࢆࡅࡘࡘఱࡽ
ࡢ㌾╔㝣ࢆᐇ⌧ࡍࡃỈ㠃ୗ࡛ࡢ┤᥋΅ࢆᶍ⣴ࡋࠊࡘࣛࣥ࠾ࡅࡿ⃰⦰άືࢆ
ྰᐃࡍࡿࡇࡣࡋ࡞࠸ᙧ࡛΅ࢆ㐍ࡵࡓࡇࡼࡾࠊ΅㐍ᒎࡢࡓࡵࡢ᮲௳ࡀ╔ᐇᩚ࠼
8
ཧ⪃㸸 ࣛࣥ᰾㛤Ⓨၥ㢟ࡢ⤒⦋
ฟᡤ㸸ྛ✀ሗ㐨ࢆࡶ➹⪅సᡂ
ᖺ ᭶
㻞㻜㻜㻞 㻤 㻌 䜲䝷䞁᰾ၥ㢟ຨⓎ䠄䝘䝍䞁䝈䛸䜰䝷䞊䜽䛾᰾タ䛾Ꮡᅾ䛜ᭀ㟢䠅 㻞㻜㻜㻟 㻞 㻌 㻵㻭㻱㻭䚸䝘䝍䞁䝈䛸䜰䝷䞊䜽䛾᰾タ䛾ᰝᐹ䜢ᐇ
㻝㻜 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䛸ⱥ⊂䠄㻱㼁㻟䠅䚸䛂䝔䝦䝷䞁ᐉゝ䛃䛻⨫ྡ
㻝㻞 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸㻵㻭㻱㻭 ㏣ຍ㆟ᐃ᭩䛻⨫ྡ
㻞㻜㻜㻠 㻝㻝 㻌 䝟䝸ྜព䠄Ṇ䛩䜉䛝䛂䜴䝷䞁⃰⦰䛃䛾ᐃ⩏䜢䜘䜚ཝᐦ䛻䠅 㻞㻜㻜㻡 㻤 㻌 㻱㼁㻟䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨ䛾ᨺᲠ䜢せㄳ
㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸䜴䝷䞁㌿సᴗ䜢㛤
㻞㻜㻜㻢 㻞 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸䜴䝷䞁⃰⦰㛵㐃◊✲άື䜢㛤
㻝㻞 㻌 ᅜ㐃Ᏻಖ⌮䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻝 ḟไ䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻣㻟㻣䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻞㻜㻜㻣 㻟 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 䚺㻌 㻌 㻌 䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻞 ḟไ䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻣㻠㻣䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻞㻜㻜㻤 㻟 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 䚺㻌 㻌 㻌 䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻟 ḟไ䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻤㻜㻟䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻞㻜㻜㻥 㻥 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸䛂➨ 㻞 䛾⃰⦰タ䛃ᘓタ䜢 㻵㻭㻱㻭 䛻⏦࿌
㻝㻜 㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤ྜព䠄䝇䝽䝑䝥ྜព䠅ᡂ❧䠄䛭䛾ᚋ䚸㡻䠅 㻞㻜㻝㻜 㻞 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸㻞㻜㻑ᮍ‶䛾⃰⦰㛤ጞ䜢 㻵㻭㻱㻭 䛻㏻࿌
㻡 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䞉䝖䝹䝁䡡䝤䝷䝆䝹䛾 㻟 䜹ᅜ䛻䜘䜛䛂䝇䝽䝑䝥ྜព䛃 㻢 㻌 ᅜ㐃Ᏻಖ⌮䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻠 ḟไ䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻥㻞㻥䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻣 㻌 ⡿ᅜ䛷ᑐ䜲䝷䞁ໟᣓⓗไἲ䠄㻯㻵㻿㻭㻰㻭䠅Ⓨຠ
㻞㻜㻝㻝 㻝㻝 㻌 㻵㻭㻱㻭䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻䜘䜛᰾රჾ㛤Ⓨ䛾ྍ⬟ᛶ䛻ゝཬ
㻝㻞 㻌 ⡿ᅜ䛷 㻞㻜㻝㻞 ᖺᗘᅜ㜵ᤵᶒἲ䠄䜲䝷䞁୰㖟ไ᮲㡯ྵ䜐䠅䛜ᡂ❧
㻞㻜㻝㻞 㻝 㻌 㻱㼁 䛜䜲䝷䞁ཎἜ䛾䝪䜲䝁䝑䝖䜢Ỵᐃ
㻠 㻌 䝖䝹䝁䛾䜲䝇䝍䞁䝤䞊䝹䛷 㻝 ᖺ 㻟 䜹᭶䜆䜚䛻᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ
㻡 㻌 䜲䝷䜽䛾䝞䜾䝎䞊䝗䛷᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ
㻢 㻌 䝰䝇䜽䝽䛷᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ
㻤 㻌 ⡿㆟䚸䜲䝷䞁䝅䝸䜰ไἲ䠄㻴㻾㻝㻥㻜㻡䠅䜢ྍỴ 㻝㻞 㻌 ⡿㆟䚸㻞㻜㻝㻟 ᖺᗘᅜ㜵ᤵᶒἲ䜢ྍỴ
㻞㻜㻝㻟 㻞 㻌 䜹䝄䝣䝇䝍䞁䛾㤳㒔䜰䝹䝬䝖䜲䛷 㻼㻡㻗㻝 䛸䛾᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ
㻠 㻌 㻼㻡㻗㻝 䛸䜰䝹䝬䝖䜲 㻵㻵 ᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ
㻢 㻌 䜸䝞䝬⤫㡿䚸ᑐ䜲䝷䞁ไᙉ䛾⾜ᨻ௧䛻⨫ྡ
㻤 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䛷䝻䜴䝝䞊䝙䞊✜ὴᨻᶒⓎ㊊
㻥 㻌 ᅜ㐃⥲䛻㝿䛧 㻼㻡㻗㻝 እ┦⣭᰾΅䜢ᐇ
㻌 䜸䝞䝬⤫㡿䛸䝻䜴䝝䞊䝙䞊⤫㡿䚸㟁ヰㄯ䜢ᐇ
㻝㻜 㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤䛷᰾΅䜢ᐇ䠄䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤 㻵䠅
㻝㻝 㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤䛷᰾΅䜢ᐇ䠄䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤 㻵㻵䚸䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤 㻵㻵㻵䠅 㻌 㻝㻝㻚㻞㻠㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤ྜព䛜ᡂ❧
- 88 - - 89 -
9
― ὀ ―
1 Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, “Geneva Nuclear Deal a Historical Opportunity with Only a Win-Win or Lose-Lose Result,” Iran Review, 2013.12.20
http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Geneva-Nuclear-Deal-a-Historical-Opportunity-wit h-Only-a-Win-Win-or-Lose-Lose-Result.htm ࡞ࢆཧ↷ࠋ
2 ྜពᩥ᭩ࡣEU࢙࢘ࣈࢧࢺ㸦URLࡣ௨ୗࡢ࠾ࡾ㸧ࢆཧ↷ࠋ
< http://eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2013/131124_03_en.pdf> 2013ᖺ12᭶17᪥ࢡࢭࢫ 㸦௨ୗྠᵝ㸧ࠋ
3 ࣇࢡࢺࢩ࣮ࢺࡢᩥࡣࠊ࣍࣡ࢺࣁ࢘ࢫ࣭࢙࢘ࣈࢧࢺࢆཧ↷ࠋ
< http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/23/fact-sheet-first-step-understandings-regarding- islamic-republic-iran-s-n>
4 ࡓ࠼ࡤࣛࣥᑐࡋ࡚㏻ᖖ㠀ᖖཝࡋ࠸❧ሙࢆྲྀࡗ࡚࠸ࡿIISSࡢᑓ㛛ᐙࡶࠊࠕ㦫ࡃ
⣲ᬕࡽࡋ࠸ࢹ࣮࡛ࣝ࠶ࡗࡓࠖࡋ࡚ࡇࡢྜពࢆࡓࡓ࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋMark Fitzpatrick, “The surprisingly good Geneva deal”, 2013.11.25,
< https://www.iiss.org/en/politics%20and%20strategy/blogsections/2013-98d0/november-47b6/
geneva-deal-0ef2>
5 Press TV, 2013.12.1, “Geneva nuclear deal good for Mideast security: Iran FM”,
< http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/12/01/337661/geneva-deal-good-for-me-security-iran/>
6 IRNA, 2013.11.24, “Supreme Leader hails efforts of nuclear negotiating team”,
< http://www.irna.ir/en/News/80919050/Politic/Supreme_Leader_hails_efforts_of_nuclear_
negotiating_team>
7 ࡓ࠼ࡤ2005ᖺ8᭶ࡢࣇ࣐ࢹ࣮ࢿࢪ࣮ࣕࢻ⤫㡿ࡢᑵ௵ඛ❧ࡕࠊࣁ࣮ࢱ࣑࣮ᨻᶒ ࡢ᰾΅ࢳ࣮࣒ࡢ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡓࡕࡣࠊࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࢆࡵࡄࡾࣛࣥࡣඪὴࢆ㉸࠼ࡓࣉ࣮ࣟࢳࢆ
ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ᪂ᨻᶒୗ࡛ࡶࡑࢀࡣኚࢃࡽ࡞࠸ࠖࡢⓎゝࢆ⧞ࡾ㏉ࡋࡓࠋ
8 ࣁ࣮ࢱ࣑࣮⤫㡿ࡣ1997ᖺᐇࡢ㑅ᣲ࡛ࡣ67.4%ࠊ2001ᖺࡢ㑅ᣲ࡛ࡣ77.88%ࡢᚓ⚊⋡࡛
ᙜ㑅ࡋࠊᅜẸࡢᅽಽⓗᨭᣢࢆཷࡅ࡚⤫㡿ᑵ௵ࡋࡓࠋ
9 SNSCࡣ࣭ࣛࣥࢫ࣮࣒ࣛඹᅜࡢึ௦᭱㧗ᣦᑟ⪅࣓࣍ࢽ࣮ᖌࡢṚཤ㝿ࡍࡿ᠇ἲᨵ
ṇྜࢃࡏࠊ1989ᖺタࡉࢀࡓࠋ
10 ISNA, 2013.7.31.
11 ᙜࡢSNSCሗ㐨ᐁࡣࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ㌿సᴗࡢ㛤㝿ࡋࠊࠕ㸦EUࡢ༠㆟ࡀ⥅⥆ࡉࢀࡓ㸧
༑ᩘ࢝᭶ࡣࠊぢ㏉ࡾࡀࢮ࡛ࣟ࠶ࡗࡓࡇࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ࠶ࡲࡾ㛗࠸ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠖ㏙
ࡓ㸦Mehr, 2005.8.1㸧ࠋ
12 ࣇ࣐ࢹ࣮ࢿࢪ࣮ࣕࢻ⤫㡿ࡣ2007ᖺ10᭶ࠊ࣮࣮ࣛࣜࢪ࣮ࣕࢽ࣮SNSCົᒁ㛗ࡢ
㎡௵ࢆཷࡅ࡚ࢪ࣮࣮ࣕࣜࣜእົḟᐁ㸦ᙜ㸧ࢆ᪂ࡓSNSCົᒁ㛗௵ࡋࡓࠋ
13 1990ᖺ௦ࣛࣇࢧࣥࢪ࣮ࣕࢽ࣮ᨻᶒᮇࡢእ┦ࢆົࡵࠊ⌧ᅾࡣࣁ࣮࣓ࢿ࣮᭱㧗ᣦᑟ⪅ࡢ
እၥ㢟㢳ၥࢆົࡵࡿࣦ࢙࣮ࣛࣖࢸ࣮ೃ⿵ࡶࠊࢪ࣮࣮ࣕࣜࣜೃ⿵ࡢ᰾΅ࡣࠕぢࡿ
ࡓ࠼࡞࠸ࠖᵝࠎ࡞ⱞゝࢆ࿊ࡋࡓࠋ
14 ࡓ࠼ࡤࠊReuters, “U.S., Iran held secret talks on march to nuclear deal,” 2013.11.24ࠊ࡞ࢆཧ↷ࠋ
< http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/24/us-iran-nuclear-bilateral-idUSBRE9AN0FB20131124>
- 88 - - 89 -
第 部
シナリオおよび政策提言
- 1 -