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ࡓ࡜ゝ࠺ࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡼ࠺ࠋ

7

NPT

ࡢ㠀᰾ಖ᭷ᅜ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡢඹឤࢆᚓࡿࡇ࡜ࡶ࡛ࡁࡓࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕ࢔ࣇ࣐ࢹ࢕࣮ࢿࢪ࣮ࣕࢻ ᨻᶒୗࡢ࢖ࣛࣥࡣࠊྠࡌࡃ

NPT

ຍ┕ᅜ࡛࠶ࡿ⡿ᅜࡀ࢖ࣛࣥࡢࠕṇᙜ࡞ࠖ᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨࢆㄆࡵ

ࡊࡿࢆᚓ࡞࠸≧ἣࢆ⏕ࡳฟࡍࡓࡵ࡟ࠊᙉຊ࡞ไ⿢ୗ࡛ከ኱࡞≛≅ࢆᡶ࠸ࡘࡘࠊ᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨ

ࢆ㐍ࡵ࡚ࡁࡓ࡜ࡍࡽゝ࠼ࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ

ࡑࡋ࡚⡿ᅜࡢ࢜ࣂ࣐ᨻᶒࡣ࢖ࣛࣥ࡜ࡢྜពࢆᶍ⣴ࡍࡿ୰࡛ࡦ࡜ࡲࡎ⃰⦰ࡢ඲ᨺᲠ࡜࠸࠺

┠ⓗࢆᲴୖࡆ࡟ࡋࠊࡇࢀࢆཷࡅ࡚࢖ࣛࣥഃ࡛ࡶࠕᶵࡣ⇍ࡋࡓࠖ࡜ࡢㄆ㆑ࡀ⏕ࡌࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡶ

࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ࢖ࣛࣥࡀ┠ᣦࡍࠕ᪥ᮏࡀ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࠖ⮬ຊ࡛ࡢ᰾ࡢᖹ࿴฼⏝ࡶ᰾⇞ᩱࢧ࢖

ࢡࣝࡢ㐩ᡂࡶࠊࡍ࡭࡚࢘ࣛࣥ⃰⦰ᢏ⾡࠶ࡗ࡚ࡢࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࡢᢏ⾡⮬యࡢࠕᨺᲠࠖࡣ࢖

ࣛࣥ࡜ࡋ࡚Ỵࡋ࡚ཷࡅධࢀࡽࢀ࡞࠸࡜࠸࠺⪃࠼ࡀࠊ࢖ࣛࣥഃ࡟ࡣ࠶ࡗࡓ࡜ᛮࢃࢀࡿࠋࡑࡋ

࡚௒ᅇࡢྜពࡣࠊ࢖ࣛࣥ࡟⃰⦰ᨺᲠࢆồࡵࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ㠀⌧ᐇⓗ࡟࡞ࡿࣞ࣋ࣝࡲ࡛ࠊ࢖ࣛࣥࡢ

᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨࡀ

IAEA

┘どୗ࡛㐍ᤖࡋࡓࡇ࡜࡛ࠊྍ⬟࡟࡞ࡗࡓࡶࡢ࡛ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ

㸱㸬࢖ࣛࣥ᰾஺΅ࡢᬻᐃⓗᩍカ

ࡇࢀࡲ࡛ぢ࡚ࡁࡓ࡜࠾ࡾࠊ

2013

11

24

᪥ࡢࢪࣗࢿ࣮ࣈྜពࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࡓせᅉࡣ」ᩘ

࠶ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ࢖ࣛࣥ࡟ᑐࡍࡿᙉຊ࡞⤒῭ไ⿢ࡣ☜࠿࡟࢖ࣛࣥࡀ┿๢࡟᰾஺΅࡟ྲྀ

ࡾ⤌ࡴせᅉ࡜࡞ࡗࡓࡀࠊ࢖ࣛࣥࢆࠕຊ࡛ࡡࡌఅࡏࡿࠖไ⿢ࡀࡓ࡜࠼ຠᯝࢆ࠶ࡆࡓ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ ࡑࢀࡔࡅ࡛᰾஺΅ࡢ኱ࡁ࡞㐍ᒎࢆᮃࡴࡇ࡜ࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ᰾஺΅ࡢ㐍ᒎ࡟ࡣ☜

ᐇ࡟ࠊ⡿ᅜഃࡢṌࡳᐤࡾࡶ୙ྍḞ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ⡿ᅜࡀࠕ࡞ࡐࠖṌࡳᐤࡗࡓ࠿࡟

㛵ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊࡑࡢ⌮⏤ࡣ」ᩘ࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡀࠊ⡿ᅜࡀ࢖ࣛࣥ࡟ᙉ࠸ᅽຊࢆ࠿ࡅࡘࡘఱࡽ

࠿ࡢ㌾╔㝣ࢆᐇ⌧ࡍ࡭ࡃỈ㠃ୗ࡛ࡢ┤᥋஺΅ࢆᶍ⣴ࡋࠊ࠿ࡘ࢖ࣛࣥ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⃰⦰άືࢆ඲

ྰᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣࡋ࡞࠸ᙧ࡛஺΅ࢆ㐍ࡵࡓࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾࠊ஺΅㐍ᒎࡢࡓࡵࡢ᮲௳ࡀ╔ᐇ࡟ᩚ࠼

8

ཧ⪃㸸 ࢖ࣛࣥ᰾㛤Ⓨၥ㢟ࡢ⤒⦋

ฟᡤ㸸ྛ✀ሗ㐨ࢆࡶ࡜࡟➹⪅సᡂ

㻞㻜㻜㻞 㻌 䜲䝷䞁᰾ၥ㢟ຨⓎ䠄䝘䝍䞁䝈䛸䜰䝷䞊䜽䛾᰾᪋タ䛾Ꮡᅾ䛜ᭀ㟢䠅 㻞㻜㻜㻟 㻌 㻵㻭㻱㻭䚸䝘䝍䞁䝈䛸䜰䝷䞊䜽䛾᰾᪋タ䛾ᰝᐹ䜢ᐇ᪋

㻝㻜 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䛸ⱥ⊂௖䠄㻱㼁㻟䠅䚸䛂䝔䝦䝷䞁ᐉゝ䛃䛻⨫ྡ

㻝㻞 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸㻵㻭㻱㻭 ㏣ຍ㆟ᐃ᭩䛻⨫ྡ

㻞㻜㻜㻠 㻝㻝 㻌 䝟䝸ྜព䠄೵Ṇ䛩䜉䛝䛂䜴䝷䞁⃰⦰䛃䛾ᐃ⩏䜢䜘䜚ཝᐦ䛻䠅 㻞㻜㻜㻡 㻌 㻱㼁㻟䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻᰾ᢏ⾡㛤Ⓨ䛾ᨺᲠ䜢せㄳ

㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸䜴䝷䞁㌿᥮సᴗ䜢෌㛤

㻞㻜㻜㻢 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸䜴䝷䞁⃰⦰㛵㐃◊✲άື䜢෌㛤

㻝㻞 㻌 ᅜ㐃Ᏻಖ⌮䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻝 ḟไ⿢䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻣㻟㻣䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻞㻜㻜㻣 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 䚺㻌 㻌 㻌 䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻞 ḟไ⿢䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻣㻠㻣䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻞㻜㻜㻤 㻌 㻌 㻌 㻌 䚺㻌 㻌 㻌 䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻟 ḟไ⿢䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻤㻜㻟䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻞㻜㻜㻥 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸䛂➨ 㻞 䛾⃰⦰᪋タ䛃ᘓタ䜢 㻵㻭㻱㻭 䛻⏦࿌

㻝㻜 㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤ྜព䠄䝇䝽䝑䝥ྜព䠅ᡂ❧䠄䛭䛾ᚋ䚸㡻᣸䠅 㻞㻜㻝㻜 㻌 䜲䝷䞁䚸㻞㻜㻑ᮍ‶䛾⃰⦰㛤ጞ䜢 㻵㻭㻱㻭 䛻㏻࿌

㻌 䜲䝷䞁䞉䝖䝹䝁䡡䝤䝷䝆䝹䛾 㻟 䜹ᅜ䛻䜘䜛䛂䝇䝽䝑䝥ྜព䛃 㻌 ᅜ㐃Ᏻಖ⌮䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻ᑐ䛩䜛➨ 㻠 ḟไ⿢䠄Ỵ㆟ 㻝㻥㻞㻥䠅䜢᥇ᢥ 㻌 ⡿ᅜ䛷ᑐ䜲䝷䞁ໟᣓⓗไ⿢ἲ䠄㻯㻵㻿㻭㻰㻭䠅Ⓨຠ

㻞㻜㻝㻝 㻝㻝 㻌 㻵㻭㻱㻭䚸䜲䝷䞁䛻䜘䜛᰾රჾ㛤Ⓨ䛾ྍ⬟ᛶ䛻ゝཬ

㻝㻞 㻌 ⡿ᅜ䛷 㻞㻜㻝㻞 ᖺᗘᅜ㜵ᤵᶒἲ䠄䜲䝷䞁୰㖟ไ⿢᮲㡯ྵ䜐䠅䛜ᡂ❧

㻞㻜㻝㻞 㻌 㻱㼁 䛜䜲䝷䞁ཎἜ䛾䝪䜲䝁䝑䝖䜢Ỵᐃ

㻌 䝖䝹䝁䛾䜲䝇䝍䞁䝤䞊䝹䛷 㻝 ᖺ 㻟 䜹᭶䜆䜚䛻᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ᪋

㻌 䜲䝷䜽䛾䝞䜾䝎䞊䝗䛷᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ᪋

㻌 䝰䝇䜽䝽䛷᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ᪋

㻌 ⡿㆟఍䚸䜲䝷䞁䝅䝸䜰ไ⿢ἲ᱌䠄㻴㻾㻝㻥㻜㻡䠅䜢ྍỴ 㻝㻞 㻌 ⡿㆟఍䚸㻞㻜㻝㻟 ᖺᗘᅜ㜵ᤵᶒἲ䜢ྍỴ

㻞㻜㻝㻟 㻌 䜹䝄䝣䝇䝍䞁䛾㤳㒔䜰䝹䝬䝖䜲䛷 㻼㻡㻗㻝 䛸䛾᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ᪋

㻌 㻼㻡㻗㻝 䛸䜰䝹䝬䝖䜲 㻵㻵 ᰾༠㆟䜢ᐇ᪋

㻌 䜸䝞䝬኱⤫㡿䚸ᑐ䜲䝷䞁ไ⿢ᙉ໬䛾⾜ᨻ௧䛻⨫ྡ

㻌 䜲䝷䞁䛷䝻䜴䝝䞊䝙䞊✜೺ὴᨻᶒⓎ㊊

㻌 ᅜ㐃⥲఍䛻㝿䛧 㻼㻡㻗㻝 እ┦⣭᰾஺΅䜢ᐇ᪋

㻌 䜸䝞䝬኱⤫㡿䛸䝻䜴䝝䞊䝙䞊኱⤫㡿䚸㟁ヰ఍ㄯ䜢ᐇ᪋

㻝㻜 㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤䛷᰾஺΅䜢ᐇ᪋䠄䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤 㻵䠅

㻝㻝 㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤䛷᰾஺΅䜢ᐇ᪋䠄䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤 㻵㻵䚸䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤 㻵㻵㻵䠅 㻌 㻝㻝㻚㻞㻠㻌 䝆䝳䝛䞊䝤ྜព䛜ᡂ❧

- 88 - - 89 -

9

1 Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, “Geneva Nuclear Deal a Historical Opportunity with Only a Win-Win or Lose-Lose Result,” Iran Review, 2013.12.20

http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Geneva-Nuclear-Deal-a-Historical-Opportunity-wit h-Only-a-Win-Win-or-Lose-Lose-Result.htm ࡞࡝ࢆཧ↷ࠋ

2 ྜពᩥ᭩ࡣEU࢙࢘ࣈࢧ࢖ࢺ㸦URLࡣ௨ୗࡢ࡜࠾ࡾ㸧ࢆཧ↷ࠋ

< http://eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2013/131124_03_en.pdf> 2013ᖺ12᭶17᪥࢔ࢡࢭࢫ 㸦௨ୗྠᵝ㸧ࠋ

3 ࣇ࢓ࢡࢺࢩ࣮ࢺࡢ඲ᩥࡣࠊ࣍࣡࢖ࢺࣁ࢘ࢫ࣭࢙࢘ࣈࢧ࢖ࢺࢆཧ↷ࠋ

< http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/11/23/fact-sheet-first-step-understandings-regarding- islamic-republic-iran-s-n>

4 ࡓ࡜࠼ࡤ࢖ࣛࣥ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㏻ᖖ㠀ᖖ࡟ཝࡋ࠸❧ሙࢆྲྀࡗ࡚࠸ࡿIISSࡢᑓ㛛ᐙࡶࠊࠕ㦫ࡃ࡯࡝

⣲ᬕࡽࡋ࠸ࢹ࢕࣮࡛ࣝ࠶ࡗࡓࠖ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡇࡢྜពࢆࡓࡓ࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋMark Fitzpatrick, “The surprisingly good Geneva deal”, 2013.11.25,

< https://www.iiss.org/en/politics%20and%20strategy/blogsections/2013-98d0/november-47b6/

geneva-deal-0ef2>

5 Press TV, 2013.12.1, “Geneva nuclear deal good for Mideast security: Iran FM”,

< http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/12/01/337661/geneva-deal-good-for-me-security-iran/>

6 IRNA, 2013.11.24, “Supreme Leader hails efforts of nuclear negotiating team”,

< http://www.irna.ir/en/News/80919050/Politic/Supreme_Leader_hails_efforts_of_nuclear_

negotiating_team>

7 ࡓ࡜࠼ࡤ2005ᖺ8᭶ࡢ࢔ࣇ࣐ࢹ࢕࣮ࢿࢪ࣮ࣕࢻ኱⤫㡿ࡢᑵ௵࡟ඛ❧ࡕࠊࣁ࣮ࢱ࣑࣮ᨻᶒ ࡢ᰾஺΅ࢳ࣮࣒ࡢ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡓࡕࡣࠊࠕ᰾ၥ㢟ࢆࡵࡄࡾ࢖ࣛࣥࡣඪὴࢆ㉸࠼ࡓ࢔ࣉ࣮ࣟࢳࢆ

࡜ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ᪂ᨻᶒୗ࡛ࡶࡑࢀࡣኚࢃࡽ࡞࠸ࠖ࡜ࡢⓎゝࢆ⧞ࡾ㏉ࡋࡓࠋ

8 ࣁ࣮ࢱ࣑࣮኱⤫㡿ࡣ1997ᖺᐇ᪋ࡢ㑅ᣲ࡛ࡣ67.4%ࠊ2001ᖺࡢ㑅ᣲ࡛ࡣ77.88%ࡢᚓ⚊⋡࡛

ᙜ㑅ࡋࠊᅜẸࡢᅽಽⓗᨭᣢࢆཷࡅ࡚኱⤫㡿࡟ᑵ௵ࡋࡓࠋ

9 SNSCࡣ࢖࣭ࣛࣥ࢖ࢫ࣮࣒ࣛඹ࿴ᅜࡢึ௦᭱㧗ᣦᑟ⪅࣓࣍࢖ࢽ࣮ᖌࡢṚཤ࡟㝿ࡍࡿ᠇ἲᨵ

ṇ࡟ྜࢃࡏࠊ1989ᖺ࡟๰タࡉࢀࡓࠋ

10 ISNA, 2013.7.31.

11 ᙜ᫬ࡢSNSCሗ㐨ᐁࡣࠊ࢘ࣛࣥ㌿᥮సᴗࡢ෌㛤࡟㝿ࡋࠊࠕ㸦EU࡜ࡢ༠㆟ࡀ⥅⥆ࡉࢀࡓ㸧஧

༑ᩘ࢝᭶ࡣࠊぢ㏉ࡾࡀࢮ࡛ࣟ࠶ࡗࡓࡇ࡜ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ࡜࠶ࡲࡾ࡟㛗࠸ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠖ࡜㏙࡭

ࡓ㸦Mehr, 2005.8.1㸧ࠋ

12 ࢔ࣇ࣐ࢹ࢕࣮ࢿࢪ࣮ࣕࢻ኱⤫㡿ࡣ2007ᖺ10᭶࡟ࠊ࣮࣮ࣛࣜࢪ࣮ࣕࢽ࣮SNSC஦ົᒁ㛗ࡢ

㎡௵ࢆཷࡅ࡚ࢪ࣮࣮ࣕࣜࣜእົḟᐁ㸦ᙜ᫬㸧ࢆ᪂ࡓ࡟SNSC஦ົᒁ㛗࡟௵࿨ࡋࡓࠋ

13 1990ᖺ௦࡟ࣛࣇࢧࣥࢪ࣮ࣕࢽ࣮ᨻᶒᮇࡢእ┦ࢆົࡵࠊ⌧ᅾࡣࣁ࣮࣓ࢿ࢖࣮᭱㧗ᣦᑟ⪅ࡢ

እ஺ၥ㢟㢳ၥࢆົࡵࡿࣦ࢙࣮ࣛࣖࢸ࢕࣮ೃ⿵ࡶࠊࢪ࣮࣮ࣕࣜࣜೃ⿵ࡢ᰾஺΅ࡣࠕぢࡿ࡟

ࡓ࠼࡞࠸ࠖ࡜ᵝࠎ࡞ⱞゝࢆ࿊ࡋࡓࠋ

14 ࡓ࡜࠼ࡤࠊReuters, “U.S., Iran held secret talks on march to nuclear deal,” 2013.11.24ࠊ࡞࡝ࢆཧ↷ࠋ

< http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/24/us-iran-nuclear-bilateral-idUSBRE9AN0FB20131124>

- 88 - - 89 -

第 部

シナリオおよび政策提言

- 1 -

➨㸴❶ ࣟࢩ࢔࠿ࡽࡳࡓ㟢ᮅ㛵ಀࡢ⌧≧࡜ᒎᮃ

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