エンタテインメント・ビジネス : デザイン学研究特集号に寄せて(<特集>エンタテインメントデザイン)

Japanese Society for the Science of Design

NII-Electronic Library Service Japar ユese _{Society 　for 　the 　Science}of _Design

エ

ン

タ

テ

イ

ン

メ

ン

ト

・

ビジネ

ス

Preface

　

to

　

the

　

Japanese

　

Edition

デザ イン

学研究特集号

に

寄

せて

八 ロル ド

L．

ヴォ

ー

ゲ ル

助川た かね　編

・

補 筆

Harold　L　VbgeI

CEO

，

　Vogel　Capital　Management

金融 経済学 者にして殿 堂 入 り投 資アナ リス ト

、

そ して 四半世 紀

に わ た り9版 腫 ねた名著

、

Entettainment　

lndustt

_］t　

Economics

．

’

A （∋α颱 伽 月h即 舶 ん4ηθ_弊な 似 下

、

EIE）の著 者であ る ハロル ド

・

_ヴォ

ー

_ゲル

_。

_{本 特 集 号のた めに}

_、

_{EIE日本 人 読}

者に 向 け た序文

、

1

月 に刊 行 さ れ た第9版の紹介

、

そ して エ ンタテイン メ ン ト

・

ビ ジネスとの 出会いとEIEの誕 生につ い て寄せ て く れ た

。

1 ，Preface

　to　the　

Japanese

　

Edition

　

for

　

EIE

TWenty　years　is　a　biink　of　the　eye　relative　to　human　history　and

the　existence　of　Iife　on　earth

．

　But　for　the　entertainment 　_and　media

industries　as　well　as　

for

　this　author

−

now 　twenty　_years　older　and with　a　few　new 　wrinkles 　and 　gray　hairs

−

it　is　a　Iong　time

．

　Much 　has

happened

　since　the　Iast　Japanese　edition　appeared

．

　Phones　were

then　still　used　mostly　for　talking_；te［evision　shows 　and　movies 　were

not　

portable

　and 　stiII　required 　a　big　screen 　to　

be

　seen

，

　There　were

no　

DVDs

　or　iPads　and　iPods

，

　and　the　Internet　was 　in　its　infancy

，

with　social　networking 　sites　and　blogs　and　search　engines　and

apps　still　in　the　future

．

　The　entertainment　and　media　

businesses

，

including　everything　

from

　

films

，

　music

，

　books

，

　newspapers

，

　and

broadcasting

，

　hadn

’

t　yet　been　massively 　disrupted　by　the　new

technology

．

　Asian　gambling　was 　mostly 　in　the　shadows 　and　smalI compared 　to　todayls　legalized　billion

−

dollar　enterprises

，

　Legacy

Gompanies 　still　had　a　strong　oligopolistic　grip　on　distribution　and

financing　and　ope旧ted　with　

business

　models　that　had　worked 　welI

for

　a　Iong　time

．

　And　there　had　been　almost 　no　theoretical　oven_！iew

with　which 　to　

Iink

　the　characteristics　common 　to　all　_{media 　and} entertainment 　segments

．

　Marketing　concepts 　of　

Iong

　tails　and

mathematica 【concepts 　of　fat　tails　and 　fractals　had　not　yet　been

appIied

．

Japan

　itself　has　also　changed 　dramatically　over　these　

past

　twenty

years

．

　During　the　economic 　bubble　years　of　the　I　980s

，

　as　

in

　alI

bubbles

　throughout　

history

，

　there　seemed 　to　be　no　Iimit　to　the

potential　for　growth　and　p汽〕sperity

．

　ln　this　environment

，

　it　was　easy

to　

iustify

　paying　high　prices　to　acquire　far

−

flung　trophy　reai　estate

properties

，

　music 　catalogs

，

　and　glamorous　

fiim

　studios

．

　

And

　then

the　bubble　colIapsed　and　Japan　su 幵ered　greatly　through　a　Iong

period　of　deflation

．

　Throughout　this　

di

幵icult　time

，

　however

，

　the

Japanese　people　have　never 　Iost　their　apPetite 　fQr　rapid　adoption

of　new 　technologies　and　their　enthusiasm 　for　consumption 　of

entertainment　and　media　serv℃es

，

　

Japan

　

has

　continued　to　

be

　

in

　the

intemational

　

fowefU

）nt　when 　it　comes 　to　film　productjon

，

　toys

，

　game

so 幵ware

，

　and 　computers

．

　There　is　every　reasontoexpectthatthis

en†husiasm 　will　extend 　we 凵into　the　future

．

　It　is　in　this　spirit　that【

welcome 　Japanese　readers 　to　enjoy　this　Iatest　updated 　edition

which　was 　expert［_y　translated　by　my 　friend　and　former　student

at　

Columbia

，

　

Prc

〕

fessor

　

Takane



Sukegawa，

and_whomIthankfor

he「

9

「eat　

PatienGe

，

　excellent 　questions

，

　and　

diligence

　

in

　

brlnging

this　edition　into　existence

．

　This　new 　edition　includes　substantial

impK）veme 耐s　and　updates　as　compared 　to　the　version　of　twenty

years

　ago　and　I　hope　that　it　will　inspire　and 　assist　new 　

growth

，

understanding

_，

　and　

participation

　in　Japan

’

s　important　media　and

entertainment 　

businesses

．

　

FK

_）m　that

，

　the　whole　wodd 　will　

bene

_黼t

．

2 ．New

　

in

　the _醍

9

噛

Edition

For　readers 　of　the　Special　issue　of　Ja_ρanese 　Society　for　thθ

Sciθnce 　of　Design　

2015

（

“

SJssD

　r_）

，

the

fo

_{胆owing　new　sections}

on　

Asian

　

gaming，

　art　markets

，

　and 　price　effects 　and 　new

apProaches 　to　cultural　economics 　are　excerpted

．

Price　effects Prices　of　all　goods　and　services 　are　Iargely

dependent　on　supply 　and 　demand 　factors　specifically　related　to

the　particular　good　or　service

．

、_伯t

　eσonomic 　policies　and　strategies

implemented 　by　governments　and　their　central　banks

−

which

have　the　

power

　to　create 　or　extingulsh 　money 　and 　credit

−

ofLen

also　

have

　an　

important

　

influence

　on　whether 　overall　prices　are moving 　upward （inflation）or　

downward

_（

deflation

_）

．

Although

notable　episodes　of　infiation　and 　deflation　have　occurred 　in　many

冂ations　at　many　times　

in

　

history

，

　the　tendency　and　preference　is

normal ［_y　to　allQw　prices　to　rise　

gradually

_（i

．

e

，

，

　creep　higher_）

．

Yet

，

by　djnt　of　compound 　jnterest　effects

，

　even 　small　annual 　increments

in　the　wholesale （producer　or　PPI）and　consumer 　

price

　indexes

（GPI）will　over 　time　significantly 　erode 　the　_{purchasing　power}　of acountry

’

s　currency

，

　both　internally　and　externally

．

　As　a　result

，

adollar 　today　as　reported

，

　say

，

　in　average　ticket　prices　and　box

oMce　receipts

，

　is　not　the　same 　as　one　of　yesterday　or　of †en　years

ago

．

　

In

　

fad

ヒ

，

　

in

　the　

United

　

States

，

　todaゾs　

do

［

lar

　

has

　the　

purchasing

power　of　and　is　equivalent 　to　perhaps　only　two　or　three　cents 　of

100years 　ago

．

　And　

priGes

　that　are冖sing　merely　at　a　compound

rate　of　a沿und 　3％ a　year　wiil　approximately　

double

　

in

　a　

Iittle

　more

than　

20

　years

．

　It　is　therefore　important　to　be　aware　of　such 　price

e 幵  ts　when 　compamg 　data　that　are　generated　relatively　

far

　apart

in　time　and　to　be　careful　when 　interpreting　numbers 　that　are　stated as　being

脇

record

−

se廿ing

．

”

Indexes　of　this　kind　are　also　criticized

as　being　misleading 　because　they　are　frequently　revised （

in

　

data

and　methodology ）and　

poorly

　capture　changes 　in　_quality　and

technology（i

．

e

．

，

　so

−

called　hedonic　factors_）

．

Cultural

　economics 　

Gultura

_｝economics 　has　for　the　most

part

　been　dominated　by　a　static　equilibrium 　perspective　based

largely　on　neoclassical　and　

Keynesian

　notions　that　assume 　a

predetermined 　set　of　resources

，

　techno］ogies

，

　preferences

，

　and

opportunities

，

　However

，

　mQre　recent　work （as　summarized 　and

extended 　in　Potts

，

2011 ）provides　a　contrasting 　apProach

（creative　industry　economiGs ）that　is　dyrlamic

，

　complex

，

　and market

−

based

，

　In　this　view

，

　the　broadiy　

defined

　system　is　open

to　novelty

，

　experimentation

，

　and 　innovation

．

　

Unlike

　the　traditional

cultural　economists

，

　cr_母ative　industry　economists 　are　not　fixated

on　the　preservation

，

　heritage

，

　subsidization

，

　market 　failure

，

　and

distributional

　

issues

　that　are　central　to　the　c_［osed

−

_system 　existentiaI

thinking　of　cultural　economists

．

　Cultural　eco 冂omists 　also　do　not

typically　investigate　and　

prc

〕

pose

　market

−

based　stractures　that　

go

beyond　recommendations 　in　support 　of　nationalistic　government

−

sponsored 　cultural　

policy

　initiatives

，

　subsidized　incentives

，

　and

formal　programs

．

　But　in　the　a阯ernative　market

−based

　creative

industry　approach

，

」

［

_田he　wea ［th　of　commerce 　feeds　art

，

　and　the

wealth　of　art　

feeds

　commerce

．

　

Culture

　and　economy 　co

−

evolve

．

”

45

And　elite　experts 　are　not　the　

fi

_冂al　arbiters　of　taste

，

　

The

　way 　

in

　which

this　a［1　relates　to　various 　media 　and　entertainment 　segments 　is

concisely 　illustrated　in　UNESCO

’

s　ooncentric　cirt）le　mode

．

Asia

’

s　

jackpot

　

Cultures

　and　societies　have　va_「ied　widely　in

2

デ ザ イ ン 学 研 究 特 集 号

Special

　

lssueefJapanese

　

Society

　

for

　

the

　

Science

　

of

　

Design

Vol

．

22

−

3

　

No

．

872D15

Japanese Society for the Science of Design

NII-Electronic Library Service JapaneseSociety foi the Science oE Design

theirattitudestowardgambling.Insome, itisdiscouragedand

disapproved,

whjle inothers

-

such as thosein

Asia

-

_it

_has

everyday lifein

China,

where precursorsto

dominoes

intheform ofrectangular

bone

tabletshad beeninvented.AlthoughChina's sizeand infiuenceledtothespread ofthese

_games

toneighboring countries, what was most

important

was theAsiancultural view

thattheoutcome of_gamblingact[vitiesisareflectionofdestinyand alsoa testof luck.Inmore recenttimes,Macau"sSociedadede IUrismo

(operated

by

casinomogul StanieyHo)heldamonopoly thatlasted42_yearsand thatattractedserious

_players

fromall around. But

given

that

Asia's

_young

(some

750 million

people

ages l

6

to26 in2015)and rapidly _growingwealthy _population

now increasinglyhasthemeans totravelfarand wide, itwas economically sensibleforthe

Chinese

_government

-

which does not _permitcasinos insideof itstraditionalnationalboundaries

-toend themonopoly afterthisformerPortugueseterritoryhad

been

returnedin1999.Intheeariy 2000s,Americancompanies

were ailowed toformlocalpartnershipsand then bidfor_gaming and construction licensesand manage langecasino-hotelsinthe

style of±hoseintheUnited

States.

By

201

3,

onlynineyearsafter

thenew

_properties

began

toopen, thesize oftheMacau market

--propeljed

by

extraordinarilyhighaverage wagers

_per

_person

(in

so-caHed VIPaccounts)

-

had

grownto

$45.2

billion,more

thansixtimesthe size of the market on theLasVega$ Strip.

As

more modestly _pricedhotelrooms and airportand road

infrastructureproject$arecompleted, themass market of _players willeventually appreach thesize oftheVIPsegment. Nevertheless,

a _{preponderance}of

VIP

_playerswill_general[ysupport a much

higherproportionof table _games toslot machines and other

such eiectronic

paming

clovices

(EGDs)

inAsianthaninNorth Americanmarkets.

For

many ofthesame financialreasons and

for

the

_purpose

of attracting more tourismtraffic,Singapore

legalized

_gambling

in2005 and allowed two casino resorts to

open.

Singapore

has

_quickly

become

thesecond-langest Asian

gaming market, even with casino entry feesof

$1OO

a

day

thatare designedtodissuadelocalparticipation.Ina driveto

create

_jobs

through increasedtourism, convention business, and entertainment-related activities,_governments of several

other

Asian

countries,includingJapan,Vietnam,Korea,and the Philippines,are also

developing

large

casino-hotelprojects.As a result, Asia-Pacifjcistheleading

growth

regionforlegalized gamblingand accounts foran estimated

Uss1

OO billion

(--45%)

oftheestimated

US$220

billion

world totalin2015

(and

with the

U.S.shawe

--45%).

Art

markets

Of

alltheareas thattouchon cultural issues,the one thatiscontinuously activeand most economicallyvisible and

analyzable

is

relatedtotradinginobjectsofart.Thehistoryofsuch

tradingisIong,thedatacopious, and thestudiesnumerous. An eariymarket characterized

by

specu[ation,forexample, appeared

in

China's

Song

(some

±imesspelled

Sung)

Dynasty

era ofthe

eleventh throughthirteenthcenturies.

It

was atime of _passionfor

artisticworks such thattherewas a crazeforthecollectionand

study of antiquities.

Similar

speculativeactivitiesalsoappeared in

ltaly'sMedicieraof thefifteenthcentury. A flourish]ngartmarket, involving_paintings,etchings,andengraved books,alsoemeiged in

seventeenth-century

Handers

and

Holland

and eventuallyspread

to most of Europe,Britain,France,and Italybecame important tradingcenters intheeighteenthcentury,butbytheearlytwentieth

century asignificantamount of_globalactivityhadbeguntoshiftto theUnitedStates.AlthoughNew forkand London

have

retained

their

dominance

into

theeariy2000s,thereisno doubtthatAsian centers such as Hong Kong are _gaining

importance

and

have

grown

toaccount

for

atleastone-thjrd of _globalfine-artauction

sa[es.Iheannual_globalaggregate artmarket trade,includingboth

deaierand auction salesoffineand decorativeartand antiques,

isestimated to

have

expanded

to

around

$65

biliionin2014. Thisfigure,howevec isonly arough estimatethatincludesprivate dealerand auction sales,and itrepresents not a homogeneous

aggregate

but

insteada collection of distinctand independentiy evolving submarkets thatincludescontemporary paintingsand

sculptures,antiques,cralted_products,and historicalworks and genres.Asinother sectors, a _powerlaw

functions,

withthe

bulk

ofthemarket's tradingvalue

being

accounted forand handled,

respectively,

by

relativelyfewitemsand dealers.The

peculiar

characteristic oftheartmarket isthat,as inthemanket

for

financial

assets,risjng

_prices

do

not normally much deterdemand inthe

way thatrising_pricesdoforfood,fuel,orclothing. This

feature

was

recognized earlybyVeblen

(1

899),

who

(see

in

Chapter

1

)

,

held toatheoryof"conspicuous

consumption" bythewealthy,

3.

My

Biographical

Background

Growing

up inNev forkas achildofEuropeanimmigrantsrunning

from

the

Nazis,

1

was always

interested

in$cience and stock markets. BythetimeIwas 14or so, l'dalreadyreadallthestock

market booksinthelocal

public

library,StuyvesantHighSchoolis

knownforscience and math and requires an exam ±obeadmitted.

It'sone ofthe3New Y[)tkCityspecializedtechHighSchoo[s.Back inthosedays,no one didmuch _preparation,

foday,

students _go totutors

tor

3

yearstotrytobeaccepted. Mer highschool 1went

toCityColiegeofNew Ybrkforelectricalengineering and then

physics,

but1found

thatothers

had

more interestand aptitude

inthese subjects than1.So aiter

graduation

lwent toColumbia's businessschool

for

an

MBA

in

finanoeand _graduatedvery _young,

just

aker1turned

23.

Ihadno ideawhere anyof thiswould takeme except that1knew

1wanted towork somewhere on WallStreet.1was fortunate

in

thatbrekeragePaineVNlebberwas hiringMBAs and 1

_joined

as a traineewithno specialty.

At

thetime,

1

had

no particularinterest

in

entertainment,only an interestin$tocks and science.

So

as trainee,1didsome computer

_programming

(as

1had done at

Columbia

too)and was assigned toresearch and toanswer broker

questions.Themost frequentquestionswere about Disney which was about two _yearsaway fremopening DisneyVVOrldinFlorida and raising capital tobuildthismassive resortand themepark.1 thus

learned

a lotabout Disneyand theentertainment business

in

_general.

Thenafterabout halfa

_year

one ofthesenioranaiysts

in

consumer _products

decided

to

add coverage ofentertainment

companies, and 1begantowork as his

junior

analyst.That'show 1

go

±toknow allthemovie companies, and then cable,

broadcast-ing,

toys,themeparks,and eventually _gamb[ingand hotels.And

bythen,1also wanted todevelopadeeperand more lastingreport

about how a[1majorentertainmentand media sectors operated.

By1971 ,1was one ofthefirst

Wall

Street

analyststo cover the

gambling

business.

1alsoatthesame timebegannightstudiesfor

a second master's

degree

in

economics at

New

fork

University.

And by1974, 1was thesenior entertainment industryanalyst, recognized bylnstitutionalinvestorMagazine, mainly formy

work on Disney1thenmoved toMerrill

_lynch

in]978 as senior entertainment industryanalyst and worked atMerrillfor17

_years.

My Ph.D.infinancialeconomics

(with

dissertation

on stock market

bubbles

and crashes) came much latenyin2008 from

theUniversityofLondon,Butbythen,1was alreadyup tothe7th editionofmy

Entertainment

lndustry

Economics

book

and thefirst

edition ofTlravel1ndustryEconomics.Andthat'showE]Ebegan.

Harold

L,

Vogel

New YOrkCity February

2015

fv{y\anxksee SpeeiallssueefJapaneseSocietyfertheScienceotDesign Vel.22-3No,e72015 NII-Electionic Libia

3

y