Folie 1

Trends in disaster losses

Claudia Buholzer Rosenkranz Munich Re Japan Services K.K.

Advanced Reinsurance Course Tokyo, April 23, 2009

NatCatSERVICE

Most comprehensive global loss database for natural catastrophes

• Today more than 25,000 data sets

• Reliable data and creditability

• More than 200 different data sources

• From 1970 until today all loss events have been analysed and entered

• Retrospectively all Great Disasters since 1950 have been analysed and entered (285 data sets)

• In addition all major historical events starting from 79 AD – eruption of Mt. Vesuvio (3,000 historical data sets)

• Downloadcenter on the Internet

Basis for numerous analyses

Natural catastrophes 2008

World map

Geophysical events

(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events

(storm)

Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Climatological events

(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)

Significant loss events (selection)

Great natural catastrophes:

Hurricane Ike ( Sep 6-14, 2008) Caribbean, USA Cyclone Nargis (May 2-5, 2008) Myanmar

Earthquake (May 12, 2008) China

Winter damage (Jan 10–Feb 13, 2008) China

2008: 750 natural catastrophes

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009

Natural catastrophes 2008

10 costliest natural catastrophes ordered by overall losses

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009

** Missing people not included: Cyclone Nargis: 54,000; Earthquake Sichuan: 18,000 * Original values

750 loss events

Natural catastrophes 2008

Percentage distribution worldwide ordered by type of event

163,000 fatalities

Overall losses* US$ 200bn Insured losses* US$ 45bn

*in 2008 values *in 2008 values

Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) Hydrological events

(Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events

(Storm) Geophysical events

(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009

750 loss events

Natural catastrophes 2008

Percentage distribution worldwide ordered by continent

163,000 fatalities

Overall losses* US$ 200bn Insured losses * US$ 45bn

*in 2008 values *in 2008 values

North America, incl. Central America and the Caribbean

Africa Asia Australia/Oceania Europe South America

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009

Global natural catastrophes 1980 – 2008

Overall and insured losses with trend

US$bn

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009 Overall losses (in 2008 values) Insured losses (in 2008 values)

Trend insured losses Trend overall losses

• Rise in population

• Better standard of living

• Settlement in extremely exposed regions

• Vulnerability of modern societies and technologies to natural hazards • Increasing insurance density

• Change in environmental conditions - Climate Change

Reasons for globally increasing losses

due to natural disasters

Global natural disasters 1980 – 2008

Number of events

Number

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009 Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) Hydrological events

(Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, Tsunami, volcanic eruption) 11

Global natural disasters 1980 – 2008

Number of events – relative trends

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009

Natural catastrophes in Asia 1980 – 2008

Costliest catastrophes: insured losses

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009

Natural catastrophes in Asia 1980 – 2008

Overall and insured losses

US$bn

Overall losses (in 2008 values) Insured losses (in 2008 values)

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009 US$180bn

Natural catastrophes in Asia 1980 – 2008

Number of events

Number

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009 Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) Hydrological events

(Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, Tsunami, volcanic eruption) 15

South-, Southeast and East Asia

- Projected urban population growth until 2030:

China 92%, Indonesia 111%, Philippines 96%, all of East Asia 83%. Most growth happens at urban fringes (250 Million in China alone) due to migration (65% today) –

fragile areas (e.g. river banks, flood plains, canal edges) prone to hits from natural hazards.

Source: Angel, S., et al.

(2005),The Dynamics of Global

Urban Expansion , World Bank.

Built up area projections by regions

Megacities in Asia

Source: World Bank 2008,

Disaster loss potential 2015 relative to 2005

for the 10 largest Megacities

Source: Bower, Crompton, Faust, Höppe, Pielke (2007), Confronting Disaster Losses, Science 318, p.753

Natural catastrophes in Japan 1980 – 2008

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009

Overall losses* US$ 280bn

*in 2008 values

Insured losses * US$ 46bn

*in 2008 values

Climate change affects insurance industry

• Increase in weather variability • New levels of weather extremes • New kinds of weather risks

• More frequent and more intense natural catastrophes

• Changing patterns of infectious diseases and other health effects • Lacking experience in new kinds of hazards

• Prospective risk modelling

• Increasing demand for NatCat covers

• New insurance products can be developed

The Insurance Sector’s role

The role of insurance industry in partnership with society

- Provision of data on losses from natural disasters to science, political decision makers and the public

- Products enhancing society’s hazard-adaptive capability

- Transparency of risks via risk measurement & risk adequate premiums

-> sound actions, prevention, reduced loss loads for society

- Products promoting society’s emissions reduction goals (weather losses)

Topics Geo – annual review of natural catastrophes

Studies on CC impacts – Risks and Opportunities

for the insurance industry

2002 2003 2005 2007

Hurricanes – More intense, more frequent, more expensive. Insurance in a time of changing risks (2006)

Highs and lows - Weather risks in central Europe (2007)

Specialized publications on climate issues

Over 300 visitors from japanese insurance companies, politics, industry and media visited and enjoyed the interactive exhibition concept.

Climate Change Exhibition at

Munich Re Japan Services K.K. in September 2008

http://www.munichre.co.jp

Thank you for your interest!

Download-Center on the Internet

Natural catastrophes 1980 – 2008

Percentage distribution worldwide

Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) Hydrological events

(Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events

(Storm) Geophysical events

(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE As at January 2009

18,000 loss events 1,700,000 fatalities

Overall losses* US$ 2,600bn _{Insured losses * US$ 630bn}

*in 2008 values *in 2008 values

Insured losses * US$ 62bn Overall losses* US$ 1,050bn

Natural catastrophes in Asia 1980 – 2008

Percentage distribution

*in 2008 values *in 2008 values

Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fires) Hydrological events

(Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events

(Storm) Geophysical events

(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)

5,700 loss events 1,060,000 fatalities

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risiks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at February 2009

自然災害による世界的な損害増加の理由

E8 • 人口の増加 • 生活水準の向上 • 自然災害の危険性が非常に高い地域での定住 • 現代社会とテクノロジーの自然災害への脆弱性 • 保険契約の増加 • 環境条件の変化 – 気候変動

気候変動の保険業界へ与える影響

• 天候の変わりやすい状況が頻繁に発生 • 異常気象の深刻化 • 新しい種類の天候リスク • 自然災害の深刻さと発生の頻度が増している • 伝染病やその他の健康への影響の傾向が変化 • 新しい種類の災害に対する経験不足 • 将来を見通したリスク・モデリング • 自然災害リスクに対する保険カバーへの需要の増加 • 新しい保険商品の開発 E19

保険業界の役割

社会と協力して担う保険業界の役割 - 自然災害の損害データを科学界、政府、一般に提供 - 社会が損害に対する適応能力を強化できるような商品 -リスクマネジメントおよびリスクに見合った保険料を通して、リスクの透明性 を高める ➔ 健全な措置、防止、社会の損害負担を軽減 - 社会の排出削減目標を促進する商品 E20

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) /

Microinsurance

April 23rd, 2009

Christoph Stuber

Group Leader

Business Development Manager Non-Life MR Japan Services K.K.

2

Agenda

ƒ

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII)

¾ Background

¾ Mission ¾ Rationale

¾ Management of Natural Hazard Risks/Examples ¾ Activities

ƒ

Microinsurance

¾ Basics of Microfinance/Microinsurance ¾ Munich Re activities/practical examples ¾ Challenges/reinsurance services

3

Agenda

ƒ

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII)

¾ Background

4

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative

-Background

ƒ

Why?

The Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII) was launched by Munich Re in April 2005 as it was increasingly realised that insurance-related solutions can support the adaptation to climate change proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol.

Who?

This initiative brings together insurers, experts on climate change and

adaptation, NGOs and policy researchers intent on finding solutions to the risks posed by climate change. MCII provides a forum and gathering point for insurance-related expertise on climate-change impact issues. Group open to new members, e.g. (re)insurance industry, climate change and adaptation experts, NGOs.

5

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative

-Background

ƒ

What?

Registered non-profit association dealing with international frameworks and public-private insurance mechanisms for those particularly affected by global climate change

6

Agenda

ƒ

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII)

7

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative

-Mission

Four objectives

ƒ To facilitate insurance-related solutions to help deal with the impact of climate change.

ƒ To conduct and support pilot projects for the application of insurance-related solutions in partnerships and through existing organizations and programs

ƒ To promote insurance-related approaches in cooperation with other organizations and initiatives

ƒ To identify and promote loss-reduction measures for tackling climate-related events

8

Agenda

ƒ

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII)

9

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative

-Rationale

In recent years more and more indications that climatic change is influencing the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes. We expect:

ƒ an increase in the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes in many parts of the world

ƒ new exposures

ƒ more extensive damages and economic, social and environmental consequences as a result of weather-related disasters

--->

Profound impact on lives, health, and property of millions of people. Special concern: Climate change will mostly impact the world’s poorest people.

10

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative

-Rationale

The decisive question: What strategies will help us adapt to climate change? Insurance-related mechanisms can be an effective part of adaptation

strategies. They can counteract the negative effects of global warming and reduce the financial risks of the increasing number of natural catastrophes.

11

Agenda

ƒ

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII)

12

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative

-Management of Natural Hazard Risks

ƒ Losses caused by climate-related natural hazards are rising

ƒ Currently US$100 billion economic losses / annum ƒ 95 per cent of deaths from natural disasters in the

last 25 years occurred in developing countries ƒ Limited allocation of financial resources so far to

support adaptation

ƒ Developing countries

ƒ Have lowest coping capacity, higher vulnerability (majority of fatalities)

ƒ Management of climate risks

ƒ Need to reduce risk and transfer risk in ways conducive to climate change adaptation

ƒ Two issues:

ƒ Link insurance with incentives to prevent losses ƒ Deliver climate insurance solutions to benefit those

most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change

Drought in Yemen (Source: Munich Re)

13

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative – Examples of

Insurance Tools to Manage Climate Risks in

Developing Countries

Meso-scale solutions like microinsurance

ƒ Index-based drought insurance in Malawi, or

government supported herder insurance in Mongolia Country-level insurance schemes

ƒ Successful or promising sovereign schemes such as the parametric weather derivative in Ethiopia to help government protect rural poor

ƒ Mexico´s FONDEN

Regional (multi-country) insurance pools

ƒ Caribbean Catastrophe Reinsurance Facility (CCRIF). MR involved in leading role.

Disaster insurance – with international support – has great potential for providing security to the poor. The market acting alone cannot provide this security.

Hurricane Gustav , Haiti , August 27, 2008 Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar , May 4, 2008

14

Agenda

ƒ

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII)

15

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative

-Activities

The Bali Action Plan 2007 calls for “consideration of risk sharing and transfer mechanisms, such as insurance” to address loss and damage in developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. For the inclusion of

insurance instruments in the post-2012 adaptation regime, the potential role of risk-pooling and risk-transfer systems must be firmly established.

On the basis of the Bali Action Plan 2007, MCII proposes a climate risk

management module to next Conference of Partners (COP) in Copenhagen 2009 that would include insurance tools for adapting to climate change in a-post-2012 agreement.

16

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative –

Activities: MCII Proposal

Prevention Pillar High Layer RISK Middle Layer RISK Low Layer RISK TIER 1 Climate Insurance Pool TIER 2

Support for micro and macro insurance systems

Insurance Pillar

RISK

MANAGEMENT MODULE

The two-tiered insurance pillar

• Meets the principles set out by the UNFCCC • Provides assistance to the most vulnerable, and • Includes private market participation.

Premiums paid by AF ($5 bn) Support financed by AF ($2 bn) Support financed by AF ($3 bn) Rough estimated annual costs: $ 10 bn

RISK

MANAGEMENT MODULE

Prevention Pillar Insurance Pillar Low Layer RISK mainly mainly TIER 1 Climate Insurance Pool TIER 2

Support for micro and macro insurance systems

High Layer RISK Middle Layer RISK

RISK

MANAGEMENT MODULE

Prevention Pillar Insurance Pillar Low Layer RISK mainly TIER 1 Climate Insurance Pool TIER 2

Support for micro and macro insurance systems

High Layer RISK

Middle Layer RISK

17

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative –

Activities: MCII proposal

High risk level tier (tier 1): How much money needed?

Level of current annual total economic losses caused by weather related natural catastrophes: US$ 100 bn (0,2% of global GDP of US$ 48 trn)

Ratio of losses in developing countries: 7% of global losses = US$ 7 bn Ratio of global warming attribution: rough estimate 30%

Average annual economic loss in developing countries due to global warming: 100 US$ bn x 7% x 30% = 2.1 US$ bn

A very rough estimate by MR/external

experts!!!

18

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative –

Activities: MCII proposal

The loss ratio to be indemnified under Tier 1 has to be negotiated by the

international community; ultimately it should be linked to an estimated attribution of global warming to the losses covered.

The requisite funding for a Climate Insurance Pool (CIP) covering the top 30% of losses arising from the most extreme climate events (return period of 1 in 100 years) in eligible developing countries can be assessed as:

Indemnification of the top 30% of the total direct economic losses (both public and private) would range between USD 2.7 bn -USD 3.6 bn, with the maximum insured losses to be capped between 10 and 50 billion. The amount of the

indemnification depends upon the availability of premium income for the pool. The gross annual costs of the suggested insurance scheme including capital and administration costs of reinsurance would range between USD 3.2 bn and USD 5.1 bn for the range of the above.

A very rough estimate by MR/external

experts!!!

19

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative –

Activities

The role of insurance industry in partnership with society

Provision of data on weather-related losses to scientists, political decision makers and the public

Transparency of risks via risk measurement & risk adequate premiums Æ Insurance industry gives risks a price tag

20

Munich Climate Insurance Initiative –

Activities

What needs to be done by MCII for the next Conference of Partners (COP) in Copenhagen end 2009?

1. Establish a risk management framework and request the COP to elaborate its operationalization in the context of two pillars:

ƒ Prevention Pillar ƒ Insurance Pillar:

¾ Tier 1: Climate Insurance Pool

¾ Tier 2: Climate Insurance Assistance Facility

2. Include, under the financial provisions of the CAO, provisions for a fund or funding window for the two pillars - prevention and insurance

ƒ Prevention pillar and insurance pillar work hand-in-hand to facilitate vulnerability reduction and adaptation

3. Request COP to identify suitable operating entity and detail the operation of the two pillars between 2009 and 2012

21

Agenda

ƒ

Microinsurance

22

Basics of Microfinance

"The great challenge before us is to address the constraints that exclude people from full participation in the financial sector. […] Together, we can and must build inclusive financial sectors that help people improve their lives."

23

Basics of Microfinance

Low-income population and access to financial services

• 2,8 billion people worldwide live on less than 2 US$/day

• Most poor people do not have access to

financial services as there is a strong correlation between income level and access to financial services.

• At the same time small and micro entrepreneurs account for at least 50% of developing country’s GDP

• For many people, the only source of credit is a pawnshop or a moneylender who may charge staggeringly high interest and give hard time to clients who fail to pay on time.

24

Basics of Microfinance

Microfinance is a term used to refer to the activity of provision of

financial services to clients who are excluded from the traditional

financial system on account of their lower economic status.

25

Basics of Microinsurance

Microinsurance is the protection of low-income

people against specific perils in exchange for

regular premium payments proportionate to the

likelihood and cost of the risk involved.

(Microinsurance Compendium 2006)

26

Basics of Microinsurance

The risks around low-income people

All these events put a pressure on the household budget

¾ Death of relatives ¾ Grave illness ¾ Personal accidents ¾ Birth of children ¾ Natural disasters ¾ Robbery/theft ¾ Destruction of belongings ¾ Unemployment

27

Basics of Microinsurance

Complexity of different insurance products

Highly complex

- Crop insurance

- Health and disability insurance - Annuities and endowment

(retirement provision) - Property insurance

- Term life insurance (payment to beneficiaries on death)

Simpler

28

Basics of Microinsurance

Key Success Factors

To serve poor people, microinsurance must be: ƒ Responsive to essential needs for risk protection ƒ Easy to understand

ƒ Affordable

ƒ Readily available

ƒ Sold in the neighborhood and/or by trusted persons/distribution channels e.g. local bank, local service provider, retail chain stores, churches

29

Basics of Microinsurance

Landscape study 2007 – MicroInsurance Centre

Microinsurance offered in the 100 poorest countries

ƒ 78 million people in the 100 poorest countries were found to have microinsurance cover.

ƒ 357 microinsurance products (separate from social security schemes)

ƒ 116 social security schemes

ƒ 246 microinsurers (separate from government providers of social security)

ƒ Microinsurance for the world’s poor is growing fast, with most of its recent growth coming from the private sector. The microinsurers surveyed were positive about the future, predicting at least 10% growth over the following year and 100% growth over five years.

30

Agenda

ƒ

Microinsurance

31

Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/

practical examples

Microinsurance activities of the Munich Re Foundation 2005-2009

2005 Europe 2006 Africa November 2006 2007 Asia 2008 Latin America 2009 Africa

1st_{International Microinsurance Conference} Munich, Germany

2nd _{International Microinsurance Conference} Cape Town, South Africa

Release of the “Protecting the poor” A microinsurance compendium

www.microinsurancecompendium.org

3rd_{International Microinsurance Conference} Mumbai, India

4th_{International Microinsurance Conference} Cartagena, Colombia

5th_{International Microinsurance Conference} 3-5 November, Dakar, Senegal

www.microinsuranceconference2009.org

32

Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/

practical examples

Munich Re

ƒ

Since March 2007, microinsurance is part of the „top

initiatives“ and part of 13 non-life initiatives

ERGO

ƒ

India: Microinsurance is already being sold.

ƒ

China: Preliminary status of microinsurance initiatives only.

33

Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/

practical examples

Practical example: MILA Colombia (Microinsurance for Latin

America)

ƒ In a joint project, Munich Re, Suramericana (Colombia) and Women´s World Banking Bucaramanga (Colombia) developed life and property microinsurance policies for microenterpreneurs in Colombia.

ƒ The policies cover against death, grave illness, fire, and natural hazards. ƒ Distribution started in 2006 (life) and 2007 (non life). Life: Approx. 65 000

clients bought insurance, this is about 50% of the total number of clients of the Women´s World Banking Bucaramanga .

Practical example: Venezuela

ƒ Development of three microinsurance products with cooporation partners CESAP and Multinacional de Seguros

ƒ Start of pilot projects for the sale of the policies, thereafter roll out in the whole country

34

Microinsurance - Munich Re activities/

practical examples

In planning: Design of an insurance cover protecting credit

portfolios of Microfinance Institutions

35

Agenda

ƒ

Microinsurance

36

Microinsurance - Challenges/ reinsurance

services

Challenges

ƒ

High transaction costs: Small amounts in individual premiums

from a large number of people

ƒ

General insurance challenges: moral hazard, adverse selection,

fraud, and overuse

ƒ

Weak institutional and regulatory frameworks, political

arbitrariness and poor official certification

ƒ

Target conflicts with partners: Humanitarian interests vs.

commercial interests

ƒ

Premium collection method

37

Microinsurance - Challenges/ reinsurance

services

ƒ

Risk analysis and risk calculation: lack of data

ƒ

Balancing needs and possibilities

ƒ

Sustainable agreements with mainstream insurance

industry and governments

ƒ

Language used on the policy

ƒ

Administration and control

ƒ

Lack of culture of risk reduction and mitigation

38

Microinsurance - Challenges/ reinsurance

services

Reinsurance Services

ƒ

Underwriting expertise

ƒ

Access to international experience and resources

ƒ

Risk Share

ƒ

Financial capacity

ƒ

Nat Cat protection

ƒ

Long-term stability

ƒ

Solvency relief

39

Conclusions

ƒ

Increasing effects of climate change on societies and

economies cannot be solely tackled by individual countries.

ƒ

The MR Group contributes to political discussion by profound

expert know-how and vast experience in climate change and

related risk management-mechanisms.

ƒ

Japan put climate-protection on top of the political agenda and

co-leads the way in current climate-change-discussion.

ƒ

The MR Group continuously develops climate-change related

reinsurance and insurance solutions.

-> We would be very pleased to discuss options to cooperate

with you and your companies in this high-potential-segment.

40

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

ƒ 設立

MCIIは、2005年4月、ミュンヘン再保険により設立。保険ソリューションが、国連 気候変動枠組条約および京都議定書で提案された気候変動への適用を支援 できるという可能性を認識し始めたため。

ƒ 加盟メンバー

イニシアチブのもとに、気候変動リスクに対するソリューションを探る保険会社、 気候変動や適応策の専門家、NGO、政策研究者を一堂に集めた。MCIIは、気 候変動の影響問題に関して保険の専門知識を話し合うためのフォーラムや集 会の場を提供。加盟メンバーは、保険・再保険業界、気候変動およびその適応 に関する専門家、NGOなど、さまざまな団体に門戸が開かれている。 E4

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

ƒ 特徴

気候変動の影響を大きく受ける人たちのための国際的枠組み、および官民によ る保険メカニズムを扱う認定非営利団体

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

も

目的

４つの目的

ƒ 気候変動による影響に取り組むための保険ソリューションを促進 ƒ 既存の団体やプログラムを通じて、保険ソリューションを適用するための 試験的プロジェクトを支援・実行 ƒ ほかの団体やイニシアチブと協力して、保険ソリューションを促進 ƒ 気候変動が原因で発生する自然災害による損害を削減する対策を特定・促進 E7

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

設立の理由

気候変動により、近年、自然災害の発生頻度や深刻さが増している ƒ 世界のいたるところで、自然災害の発生頻度や深刻さが増している ƒ 新しいエクスポージャー ƒ 天候関連の自然災害により、経済的・社会的・環境的な損失をもたらす ➔ 多くの人々の生命、健康、財物に著しい影響 気候変動は特に、世界の貧困者層に多大な影響を及ぼしている E9

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

設立の理由

気候変動に適応するためには、どのような戦略が効果的か？ 保険メカニズムは、気候変動に適応するための効果的な戦略。地球温暖化による 影響を防止し、増加する自然災害の金融的リスクを削減する。 E10

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

提案

Prevention Pillar High Layer RISK Middle Layer RISK Low Layer RISK TIER 1 Climate Insurance Pool TIER 2

Support for micro and macro insurance systems

Insurance Pillar

RISK

MANAGEMENT MODULE

The two-tiered insurance pillar

• Meets the principles set out by the UNFCCC • Provides assistance to the most vulnerable, and

Premiums paid by AF ($5 bn) Support financed by AF ($2 bn) Support financed by AF ($3 bn) Rough estimated annual costs:

RISK

MANAGEMENT MODULE

Prevention Pillar Insurance Pillar Low Layer RISK mainly mainly TIER 1 Climate Insurance Pool TIER 2

Support for micro and macro insurance systems

High Layer RISK Middle Layer RISK リスク マネジメント 防止 保険 低い リスク 第1の層 気候保険プール 第2の層 小規模・大規模な 保険システムの支援 高い リスク 中程度の リスク E16

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

提案

高いリスクの低減（気候保険プール）には、いくら必要か？ 天候関連の自然災害による年間の経済損失額: 1000億ドル (世界のGDP 48兆ドルの0.2%) 発展途上国の損害率: 世界の損害の7% = 70億ドル 地球温暖化の起因率: 約30% 地球温暖化による発展途上国の年間経済損失額: 1000億ドル x 7% x 30% = 21億ドル （ミュンヘン再保険および外部の専門家による概算） E17

ミュンヘン気候保険イニシアチブ（

MCII)

提案

第一の層である気候保険プールは、国際社会によって協議されるべき。なぜなら、地 球温暖化による発展途上国の予測経済損失額と気候保険プールを切り離して考える ことはできないから。 発展途上国の大規模自然災害（100年に1回発生するような）による損害のトップ 30％をカバーする気候保険プール(CIP)に必要な金額は（概算）： 1）経済損失のトップ30％の補償額（官民による）は、27億～36 億ドルと予測。保険損 害は多くて100～500億ドル。補償額は、プールの保険料収入によって異なる ２）再保険の資本・管理コストを含む保険スキームに必要な年間コストは、上記金額を 考慮すると、約32億～51億ドルと予測 （ミュンヘン再保険および外部の専門家による概算） E18

マイクロファイナンスとは

マイクロファイナンスとは、（先進国よりも）経済事情が悪いという理由で、

伝統的な金融システムから除外されている顧客に、金融サービスを提

供する活動。

マイクロインシュランスとは

さまざまな保険商品の複雑性

複雑 - 農作物保険 - 健康・傷害保険 - 年金・基金 (退職金など) - 財物保険 - 定期生命保険 (死亡に対する受益者への支払い） 単純 E27

マイクロインシュランスとは

成功のカギとなる要因 貧困層の救済のため、マイクロインシュランスは ƒ リスク防止の対応策 ƒ 理解しやすい ƒ 手頃な価格 ƒ すぐに利用できる ƒ 近辺で入手できる。もしくは、信頼できる人や流通経路（地元の銀 行やサービス提供者、小売店、銀行など）から入手できる E28

マイクロインシュランスとは

マイクロインシュランス・センターによる

2007度の調査

最貧国

100カ国にマイクロインシュランスが提供されている

ƒ 最貧国100カ国で7800万人がマイクロインシュランスのカバーを提供さ れている ƒ 357のマイクロインシュランス関連商品（政府による社会保障スキームを 除く） ƒ 116の社会保障スキーム ƒ 246のマイクロインシュランス提供者(政府による社会保障提供を除く） ƒ 世界の貧困層のためのマイクロインシュランスの成長率は高い。特に民 間提供者の成長率が著しい。調査対象のマイクロインシュランス提供者 は、将来に対して前向きで、2010年度の成長率は少なくとも10％、5年間 で100％と予測。 E29

マイクロインシュランス

ミュンヘン再保険の活動と実例

ミュンヘン再保険

ƒ マイクロインシュランスは、2007年3月より、「トップ・イニシアチブ」

および損害保険13イニシアチブの一つとなっている

ERGO

ƒ すでにインドで、マイクロインシュランスを販売している

ƒ 中国では、マイクロインシュランス・イニシアチブの準備段階

E32

マイクロインシュランス

ミュンヘン再保険の活動と実例

MILA （Microinsurance for Latin America） Colombia

ƒ ミュンヘン再保険、スラメリカーナ、女性のための世界銀行「ブカラマンガ」との共同 プロジェクトで、コロンビアのマイクロ企業家のために、生命・財物マイクロインシュラ ンスを開発 ƒ 死亡、重病、火災、自然災害に対する保険カバー ƒ 2006年に生命保険、および2007年に損害保険を販売開始。生命保険：約65000名の 顧客が保険を購入。この数はブカラマンガ全顧客の約50％に相当

ベネズエラ

ƒ CESAPとMultinacional de Segurosとの協力で、3つのマイクロインシュランス商品 を開発

ƒ 保険販売のための試験的プロジェクトを開始。その後、国全体で展開

マイクロインシュランス

課題 / 再保険サービス

課題

ƒ

取引コストが高い：多くの人から少額の保険料を徴収

ƒ

一般的な保険課題：モラル・ハザード、逆選択、詐欺行為など

ƒ

制度的・規制枠組みの詰めの甘さ、政治的恣意性や

公的資格の不備

ƒ

目標の不一致：人道的利益

vs 商業的利益

ƒ

保険料徴収方法

E36

マイクロインシュランス

課題 / 再保険サービス

ƒ リスクの分析・算出：データ不足

ƒ ニーズと可能性のバランス

ƒ 保険業界と政府との持続可能な合意

ƒ 保険約款で使用される用語

ƒ 管理・コントロール

ƒ リスクを低減・緩和するという文化の欠如

E37

マイクロインシュランス

課題 / 再保険サービス

再保険サービス

ƒ リスク引き受けの専門知識

ƒ 国際的経験や資源をもつ再保険業界にアクセス

ƒ リスクの共有

ƒ 金銭的なキャパシティ

ƒ 自然災害の防止

ƒ 長期にわたる安定性

ƒ ソルベンシー（保険金支払い能力）負担の軽減

E38

結論

ƒ 気候変動が社会や経済に及ぼす影響の増加に対して、一国で立

ち向かうことはできない

ƒ ミュンヘン再保険グループは、気候変動における専門的知識、幅

広い経験、リスク管理手段によって、政治レベルでの討議を促進

する

ƒ 日本は気候保全を政治課題のトップに上げており、現在、各国と

共同で気候変動に関する論議を実施している

ƒ ミュンヘン再保険グループは、今後も気候変動関連の再保険・保

険商品を開発する

➔当社は、ポテンシャルの高いこの分野で、皆さまとさまざまな

可能性について話し合っていきたい

E39