2G5-OS-25b-4 サプライチェーンレジリエンスを支える集団意思決定分析のためのシリアスゲーム開発

αϓϥΠνΣʔϯϨδϦΤϯεΛࢧ͑Δ

ूஂҙࢥܾఆ෼ੳͷͨΊͷγϦΞεήʔϜ։ൃ

A Serious Game for Analyzing Group Decision Making Process

Underpinning Supply Chain Resilience

ࡾ໦ݡଠ࿠

∗1 Kentaro Miki

໺த๎ඒ

∗1 Tomomi Nonaka

ਫࢁ ݩ

∗1 Hajime Mizuyama ∗1

੨ࢁֶӃେֶ

Aoyama Gakuin University

In order to quickly restore the function of a supply chain against a non-stationary critical fluctuation, decision makers need to deal with the situation through quick and creative collaboration. To reveal the features of col-laborative decision-making capable of dealing with large fluctuation resiliently, a serious game called ColPMan is developed. In this game, five players collaboratively plan and control production and delivery operations in an in-house supply chain of a manufacturer under various uncertainties. This paper also proposes a conversation analysis model, which visualizes how the problem and solution spaces are spread during a discussion of creative problem-solving. As a result of gaming simulation conducted on ColPMan and analyzing the conversations among the players, it is suggested that collaborative decision making framework overly adapted to a stationary environment may not be effective to cope with a large fluctuation.

1.

͸͡Ίʹ

ۙ೥ɼاۀͰ͸ϨδϦΤϯεͱ͍͏ߟ͑ํ͕஫໨ΛूΊ͍ͯ ΔɽϨδϦΤϯεͱ͸ɼاۀܦӦʹ͓͍ͯେن໛ͳࡂ֐΍ඇৗ ࣄଶͳͲͷඇఆৗతͳมಈʹ௚໘ͨ͠ࡍʹɼ૊৫ͷػೳΛҡ࣋ɼ ͋Δ͍͸ૉૣ͘࠶ߏங͢Δྗͱଊ͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δɽ2011೥ 3݄ʹൃੜͨ͠౦೔ຊେ਒ࡂͰ͸ɼ஍਒΍௡೾ʹର͢Δةػ؅ ཧ͕పఈ͞Ε͓ͯΒͣɼަ௨໢ͷःஅ΍޻৔ͷඃࡂͳͲʹΑͬ ͯ೔ຊͷαϓϥΠνΣʔϯ͸େ͖ͳඃ֐Λड͚ͯ͠·ͬͨɽ ͜ͷΑ͏ͳɼاۀͷܦӦʹωΨςΟϒͳӨڹΛ༩͑Δࣄ৅΁ ͷରॲ๏ͱͯ͠ɼࣄલରԠͱࣄޙରԠͱ͍͏େ͖͘ೋͭͷରॲ ๏͕ߟ͑ΒΕΔɽલऀ͸ɼ૝ఆ͞ΕΔࣄ৅Λࣄલʹચ͍ग़͠ɼ ͦΕΒʹରࡦΛߨ͓ͯ͘͡΋ͷͰ͋Δ͕ɼੜ͡ಘΔࣄ৅Λࣄ લʹ໢ཏతʹ૝ఆ͓ͯ͘͜͠ͱ͸ඇৗʹࠔ೉Ͱ͋Δɽͦ͜Ͱɼ ૝ఆ֎ͷࣄଶʹରͯ͠ɼঢ়گΛਖ਼֬ʹݟۃΊɼ໰୊Λઃఆ͠ɼ ղܾࡦΛߟҊ͢Δͱ͍ͬͨ૑଄తͳ໰୊ղܾೳྗΛඋ͓͑ͯ͘ ͜ͱ͕ඞཁෆՄܽͰ͋Δɽ·ͨɼαϓϥΠνΣʔϯͳͲͷେن ໛ͳγεςϜͰ͸ɼαϓϥΠνΣʔϯΛߏ੒͢Δؔ܎ऀؒͰί ϛϡχέʔγϣϯΛ௨ͯ͡஌ࣝ΍ܦݧΛڞ༗͠࿈ܞΛऔΓͳ͕ Βɼਝ଎ʹࣄଶʹରॲ͢Δ͜ͱ͕ॏཁͱͳΔɽ ͦ͏ͨ͠࿈ܞͷޮՌͱͯ͠ͷϨδϦΤϯε͸ɼඇఆৗతͳ มಈ͕ൃੜͨ͠ࡍͷ૊৫ͷҙࢥܾఆϓϩηεͷߏ଄ʹґଘ͢Δ ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔɽͦͷͨΊɼͦͷΑ͏ͳঢ়گԼͰަΘ͞ΕΔҙࢥ ܾఆऀؒͷίϛϡχέʔγϣϯΛ؍࡯͠ɼҙࢥܾఆϓϩηεͷ ߏ଄Λ෼ੳ͢Δ͜ͱ͕༗ޮͱͳΔɽ͕ͩɼઌͷେ਒ࡂͷΑ͏ͳ αϓϥΠνΣʔϯΛஅઈͤ͞Δఔͷେن໛ͳมಈ͕ݱ࣮ͷൃੜ ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ܾͯ͠ଟ͘͸ͳ͘ɼίϛϡχέʔγϣϯΛ؍࡯͢Δ ػձ͸ݶΒΕ͍ͯΔɽ ͦ͜ͰຊߘͰ͸ɼԾ૝తʹඇఆৗతͳมಈ͕ൃੜ͢Δঢ়گ Λ࣮ݱͰ͖ɼ·ͨࢀՃऀͷΤϯήʔδϝϯτΛߴΊΔ͜ͱ͕ Ͱ͖ΔγϦΞεήʔϜʹண໨͢ΔɽαϓϥΠνΣʔϯʹؔ͢Δ γϦΞεήʔϜ͸ڭҭ΍܇࿅໨తʹಛԽͨ͠΋ͷ͕ओͰ͋Γɼ ·ͨɼήʔϜ಺ͰަΘ͞ΕΔίϛϡχέʔγϣϯΛ෼ੳͨ͠ݚ ڀ͸਺গͳ͍[Sterman 89, Hofstede 03]ɽ ࿈བྷઌ:໺த๎ඒɼ੨ࢁֶӃେֶɼ૬໛ݪࢢதԝ۠෵໺ล5-10-1ɼ [email protected] Ҏ্Λ౿·͑ͯຊߘͰ͸ɼඇఆৗతͳมಈ͕ൃੜ͢Δঢ়گ ԼͰͷαϓϥΠνΣʔϯͷߏ੒ऀؒͷίϛϡχέʔγϣϯΛ෼ ੳ͠ɼϨδϦΤϯεΛߴΊΔͨΊͷಛ௃Λ໌Β͔ʹ͢ΔͨΊɼ ੡଄ۀͷαϓϥΠνΣʔϯΛ୊ࡐͱͨ͠γϛϡϨʔγϣϯܕγ ϦΞεήʔϜΛ৽ͨʹ։ൃ͢Δɽ

2.

ڠಇܕੜ࢈؅ཧήʔϜ ColPMan ͷ։ൃ

ຊߘͰ͸ɼड஫ܕ੡଄ۀͷαϓϥΠνΣʔϯΛϞσϧԽ͠ɼ ήʔϜΛ։ൃ͢Δɽ੡଄ۀͷαϓϥΠνΣʔϯ͸ɼސ٬ͱަব ͠ɼड஫Λ΋ͱʹେ·͔ͳੜ࢈ܭըΛཱҊ͢Δʮࣄۀڌ఺ʯͱɼ ੡඼Λੜ࢈͢Δʮ੡඼ੜ࢈޻৔ʯɼ੡඼ͷੜ࢈ʹඞཁͳࡐྉΛ ੜ࢈͢Δʮࡐྉੜ࢈޻৔ʯͱ͍͏ɼओʹࡾͭͷཁૉͰߏ੒͞Ε Δɽ·ͨɼ͜ΕΒͷߏ੒ཁૉ͸Ұൠతʹɼࣄۀڌ఺ͱ੡඼ੜ࢈ ޻৔ؒͷʮ֊૚తͳػೳ෼୲ʯɼ੡඼ੜ࢈޻৔ͱࡐྉੜ࢈޻৔ ؒͷʮ௚ྻతͳػೳ෼୲ʯɼͦͯ͠ɼ੡඼΍ࡐྉͷੜ࢈Λ୲͏ ޻৔ؒͷʮฒྻతͳػೳ෼୲ʯͱ͍͏ߏ଄Λߏங͍ͯ͠Δɽ͜ ΕΒͷػೳ෼୲ͷؔ܎Λҡ࣋ͭͭ͠ɼෳࡶ͗ͯ͢ήʔϜʹࢀՃ ͢ΔϓϨΠϠͷΤϯήʔδϝϯτΛ௿Լͤͯ͞͠·Θͳ͍Α͏ ʹߟྀͯ͠ɼαϓϥΠνΣʔϯͷߏ଄ΛϞσϧԽͨ͠ɽήʔϜ ʹ༻͍ΔϞσϧΛਤ1ʹࣔ͢ɽ !"#!$%&&'()*#)+ ,-&+!#%*$ .%/+0!1 2,345 !"#$%&$'%&(" !"#$%&$&)*#) 67&+0*#!& 8%+#!'%9&$ '):#)+0!1 8%+#!'%9&$ '):#)+0!1 !"#!& ;!0"7/+&$ '):#)+0!1 <#9':#!1 =).0!*%+'0) 8%+#!'%9 <0>)&+!#%*$ .%/+0!1$? 2<34?5 @#%"A7%!+#!& 2@B5 <0>)&+!#%*$ .%/+0!1$C 2<34C5 <0>)&+!#%*$ .%/+0!1$D 2<34D5 ਤ1: αϓϥΠνΣʔϯͷߏ଄

1

The 29th Annual Conference of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence, 2015

ຊ࿦จͰ͸ɼ͜ͷϞσϧΛ΋ͱʹɼϓϨΠϠ͕ڠྗ͠ͳ͕Β ੡଄ۀͷੜ࢈؅ཧΛମݧ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δڠಇܕੜ࢈؅ཧήʔ ϜʮColPManʯΛ։ൃͨ͠ɽ͜ͷήʔϜͰ͸ɼ5ਓͷϓϨΠ Ϡ্͕هϞσϧͷ֤ڌ఺ͷͦΕͧΕΛ୲౰͠ɼੜ࢈ܭը΍഑ૹ ܭըʹ͍ͭͯͷҙࢥܾఆΛߦ͏ɽήʔϜͷ໨త͸རӹ࠷େԽͱ ͠ɼརӹͷܭࢉʹඞཁͳച্΍ɼࡐྉɾ੡඼ͷࡏݿίετɼ഑ ૹίετɼ·ͨೲظ஗Εʹର͢ΔϖφϧςΟίετͳͲͷ֤ί ετΛઃఆ͢ΔɽήʔϜը໘ͷྫΛਤ2ʹࣔ͢ɽ ਤ2: ήʔϜը໘ͷྫ ͜ͷήʔϜ͸5ظͰ1λʔϜΛߏ੒͠ɼ೚ҙͷλʔϜ਺Ͱ ϓϨΠ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ΔɽλʔϜຖʹͦΕͧΕͷϓϨΠϠ͕ ܭըΛೖྗ͠ɼظຖʹܭըͷमਖ਼Λߦ͏ػձ͕͋ΔɽϓϨΠϠ ͸ɼ֤໾ׂʹ༩͑ΒΕͨܭըΛཱҊ͠ɼͦͷܭըΛೖྗ͠γ ϛϡϨʔγϣϯΛελʔτͤ͞ΔɽγϛϡϨʔγϣϯͰ͸ɼੜ ࢈ɾ഑ૹͷաఔʹ͓͍ͯɼϦʔυλΠϜͷมಈ΍ੜ࢈ෆྑͳͲ ͷఆৗతͳมಈΛ֬཰తʹൃੜͤ͞Δɽ·ͨɼࡂ֐ͳͲͷඇৗ ࣄଶΛ૝ఆͨ͠ඇఆৗతͳมಈΛ௿͍֬཰Ͱൃੜͤ͞Δɽ

3.

ݕূ࣮ݧ

ຊߘͰ͸ɼήʔϜ಺ͰϓϨΠϠ͕ͲͷΑ͏ͳίϛϡχέʔ γϣϯΛܦͯͲͷΑ͏ͳҙࢥܾఆʹࢸΔͷ͔Λ෼ੳ͢ΔͨΊɼ ࣮ࡍʹήʔϜΛߦͬͯ΋Β͏ඃݧऀ࣮ݧΛ࣮ࢪͨ͠ɽ࣮ݧ͸ɼ ੨ࢁֶӃେֶେֶӃͷӃੜ5໊Λඃݧऀͱͯ͠શ8ήʔϜߦ ͍ɼήʔϜதͷൃ࿩Λ࿥Ի͠ɼίϛϡχέʔγϣϯͷσʔλΛ ऩूͨ͠ɽήʔϜ಺Ͱͷඇఆৗతͳมಈ͸ɼ੡඼ͷੜ࢈Λ୲͏ Լ޻ఔ޻৔ͷੜ࢈ઃඋ͕ɼ1λʔϜ͔Β2λʔϜఔ౓Ͱނো͢ ΔΑ͏ʹઃఆͨ͠ɽ·ͨɼൺֱͷͨΊɼ8ήʔϜͷ͏ͪɼୈ1ɼ 2ɼ6ήʔϜͰ͸ήʔϜதͷνʔϜ಺Ͱͷٞ࿦͸ېࢭͨ͠ɽ

3.1

ൃ࿩෼ੳϞσϧͷఏҊ

ൃ࿩ͷ෼ੳʹ͋ͨΓɼٞ࿦ͷྲྀΕΛࢹ֮తʹදݱ͢Δൃ࿩ ෼ੳϞσϧΛఏҊ͢Δɽ͜ͷϞσϧͰ͸ɼٞ࿦ͷ࣠ͱͳΔʮ໰ ୊ʯͱʮղܾࡦʯΛɼͦΕͦΕʮݱࡏʯͱʮকདྷʯͱ͍͏ଐੑ ʹ෼͚ͯ੔ཧ͍ͯ͘͠΋ͷͰ͋Δɽࢹ֮Խʹ͋ͨͬͯ͸ɼݱࡏ ͷ໰୊ɾղܾࡦɼকདྷͷ໰୊ɾղܾࡦΛͦΕͧΕҧ͏ܗͷϊʔ υͰද͠ɽͦΕΒΛ໼ҹͰܨ͙͜ͱͰɼٞ࿦ͷ޿͕ΓΛදݱ ͢Δɽ

4.

࣮ݧ݁Ռ

ήʔϜ಺Ͱͷٞ࿦ʹ͓͚ΔϓϨΠϠͷൃ࿩Λର৅ʹɼఏҊ͠ ͨൃ࿩෼ੳϞσϧΛద༻ͨ͠ɽҎԼͷਤ3ɼਤ4͸ɼఆৗ࣌ͱ ඇఆৗ࣌ͷɼ֤ϊʔυͷ1ϐϦΦυ͋ͨΓͷग़ݱ਺ͷਪҠΛ දͨ͠΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ͜ΕΒͷਤʹ͓͍ͯɼdirect solutions͸ ϓϨΠϠ͕ٞ࿦Λհͣ͞ʹ֤ࣗͷ൑அͰରॲͨ͠ղܾࡦͷ਺Ͱ ͋Δɽ ! " #$ %& '$ %() * !"#$ !"#% !"#& !"#' !"#( ! ! " #! #! " $! $! " %! %! " )*++#,- .+/01#"2 )*++#,-32/1*-4/,2 5*-*+#3.+/01#"2 5*-*+#32/1*-4/,2 64+#)-32/1*-4/,2 ਤ3: ٞ࿦ʹ͓͚Δ໰୊ɾղܾࡦͷग़ݱ਺ͷਪҠʢఆৗ࣌ʣ ! " #$ %& '$ %() * !"#$ !"#% !"#& ! ! " #! #! " $! $! " %! %! " '())#*+,-)./0#"1 '())#*+,1.0(+2.*1 3(+()#,-)./0#"1 3(+()#,1.0(+2.*1 42)#'+,1.0(+2.*1 ਤ4: ٞ࿦ʹ͓͚Δ໰୊ɾղܾࡦͷग़ݱ਺ͷਪҠʢඇఆৗ࣌ʣ

5.

͓ΘΓʹ

࣮ݧͷ݁Ռͱͯ͠ɼ৽ͨʹ։ൃͨ͠γϦΞεήʔϜͱɼൃ࿩ ෼ੳϞσϧΛ૊Έ߹Θͤͯ༻͍Δ͜ͱͰɼٞ࿦ۭؒͷ֦ுΛ ࢹ֮తʹදݱ͠ɼνʔϜʹҙࢥܾఆͷಛ௃Λ௫Ή͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ ͨɽ۩ମతͳ੒Ռͱͯ͠͸ɼॳΊͯඇఆৗతͳมಈʹ௚໘ͨ͠ ࡍʹɼݱঢ়Ͱൃੜ͍ͯ͠Δ໰୊΁ͷରॲʹ௥ΘΕΔՄೳੑ΍ɼ ήʔϜΛॏͶΔʹͭΕͯ໰୊ൃݟ΍ରॲํ๏Λύλʔϯͱͯ͠ ఆண͍ͤͯ͘͞܏޲͕͋Δ͜ͱͳͲ͕ࣔࠦ͞Εͨɽ ࠓޙͷ՝୊ͱͯ͠͸ɼήʔϜ࣮ݧͷճ਺Λ૿΍͢͜ͱ΍ɼ৽ ͨͳήʔϜγφϦΦͷಋೖͳͲ͕ڍ͛ΒΕΔɽ

ࢀߟจݙ

[Sterman 89] Sterman, J.D.: Modeling Managerial Be-havior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment, Management Science, Vol.35, pp.321-339 (1989)

[Hofstede 03] Hofstede, G.J., Kramer, M., Meijer, S. and Wijdemans, J.: A Chain Game for Distributed Trad-ing and Negotiation, Production PlannTrad-ing & Control, Vol.14, pp.111-121 (2003)

2