Calamity and Cultural Change : Calamity as the Driving Force Behind Cultural Change

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Calamity and Cultural Change : Calamity as the Driving Force Behind Cultural Change

著者 FIELD Mark E.

出版者法政大学言語・文化センター

journal or

publication title

Journal for Research in Languages and Cultures

volume 18

page range 69‑96

year 2021‑01‑29

URL http://doi.org/10.15002/00023753

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CalamityandCulturalChange:

CalamityastheDrivingForceBehindCulturalChange

MarkE.Field

Inatimeofdramaticchange,itisthelearnerswhoinheritthefuture.

Thelearnedusuallyfindthemselvesequippedtoliveinaworld thatnolongerexists.¹

I. Introduction

Changeisprobablythemostdifficultthingforhumanstoface,yetitis ourabilitytoadapttochangingcircumstancesthatdefineusandourrela- tivesuccessasaspecies.Thisyear,AD2020,hasbeenayearofmanyunfore- seenchangesaroundtheworldinducedbythe“healthcrisis”knownasthe COVID-19pandemic,akatheNovelCoronaViruspandemic,or新型コロナウイルス感染症禍（Shingata-korona-uirusu-kansenshō-ka）inJapanese.Inmod- ernEnglish,wenormallythinkofacrisisas“Atimeofintensedifficulty, troubleordanger.”²However,asJaredDiamondpointedoutinhisbookUp- heaval,whichanalyzesandcomparesanumberofhistoricalnationalcrises intermsofpersonalindividualcrises,thewordcrisishasitsrootsinthe Greeknoun‘krisis’andverb‘krino’withseveralmeaningsincluding“tosep- arate,”“todecide,”“todrawadistinction,”and“turningpoint.”³Especially duringthecurrentworldwide“medicalcrisis,”itisalsointerestingtonote thattheword“crisis”firstappearedinlatemiddleEnglishasaderivativeof aLatinmedicaltermdenoting“theturningpointofadiseasewhenanim- portantchangetakesplace,indicatingeitherrecoveryordeath”⁴duringan- otherbiomedicalcalamityknownastheBlackDeath.

Intermsofculturalchange,theideasofcrisisasaturningpointwhen

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importantchangestakeplaceareusuallyassociatedwithsomesortofmajor externalshockcharacterizedasacalamity,⁵“aneventcausinggreatandof- tensuddendamageordistress.”⁶Calamityis,ofcourse,nottheonlyfactor behindculturalchange,butsinceacalamitycanmakeculturalchangeun- avoidable,itcanbecomethedrivingforcethatsetsothermechanismsofcul- turalchangeinmotion.Inthispaper,Iwillbefirstreviewingtheforcesbe- hindculturalchangeaspositedbySamovar&Porterinthefirst editionof theirbook,Communication Between Cultures,andtheslightlymodifiedsetof forcesbehindculturalchangeoutlinedbySamovar&Porterintheirfourth editionofCommunication Between Cultures.Afterestablishingaframework forlookingatthemechanismsatworkbehindculturalchange,Iplanto examtheinterconnectednatureofculturalchangeandtheeconomicmarket forcesthatshiftsupplyanddemand.Afterlookingattheoverlappingmech- anismsbehindeconomicandculturalchange,Iwouldliketolookassome historicalcasesofcalamityandthelikelydegreeofchangestimulatedbydif- ferenttypesofcalamities.Finally,Iwillbeexploringtheculturalandeco- nomicchangesthathavebeenforceduponaninternationalizedglobalsoci- etythathadgrownaccustomedtoalmostlimitlessinternationaltraveland directin-personinterculturalcommunicationandexchange.

II. The Forces of Cultural Change Reexamined

Ifirstbecameacquaintedwiththeforcesofculturalchangepositedby SamovarandPorterinthesummerof1999asIwasworkingonmyfirstpa- perexaminingwhat“InterculturalCommunication”mightmeanasweap- proachedthenewmillennium.Muchofwhatalmostseemedinevitableat thattimehasnotcometopass.Theendofhistoryargumentforaunidirec- tionalhistoryofhumanevolutionwithanendingpointwherehumanfree- domandjusticeforallarerealized,asfirstimaginedbyGeorgHegeland latertakenupasthecentralthemeofFrancisFukuyama’sbook,The End of History and the Last Man,hasproventobemuchmoredifficulttoachieve thanimaginedinthe1990s.Theperspectiveforitsrealizationwasdeeply

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shakenbythe9/11terroristattacksof2001,althoughtheprospectsformore democraciesintheMiddleEasthaveebbedandflowedanumberoftimes since.Moreover,thewholeprojecthasbeenvirtuallyderailedinanumber ofinstanceswherethespread（diffusion）oftheliberaldemocraticmodelhas beenresistedorabandonedonnational,ideologicalorculturalgrounds,most notablyinChinaandRussia.Consequently,therehasnotbeenthesamepo- litical convergence across nations that Fukuyama once predicted, even thoughthespreadoftechnologyandspeedofinformationtransferhasbeen unprecedented.Nonetheless,theforcesofculturalchangehavecontinuedto workbehindthescenes,andIhavecometoviewtheseforcesasthekeysto thechangesinhumanthoughtovertime,i.e.,theevolutionofhumanvalues andbeliefsthatformthebedrockofphysicalcultureandcustoms.

Intheir1991first editionofCommunication Between Cultures, Samovar andPorteremphasizedthatbothcultureandcommunicationweredynamic systemssubjecttocontinuouschangeovertime,beforeintroducingwhat theybelievedwerethethreemostcommonmechanismofculturalchange:

invention,diffusionandcalamity.⁷Inventionwasseenasthediscoveryof newconcepts,practices,ortoolsthateventuallybecomewidelyaccepted andadoptedbyaculture,andthuschangeandmoveacultureinaslightly differentdirection.Diffusionwastakentobetheintroductionandborrowing ofpreviouslyunknownconcepts,practicesortoolsfromonecultureintoan- otherculturethatassimilatesandadaptstheseborrowedconcepts,practices ortoolsasitsown.

Eventhoughinventionanddiffusionwereregardedasthemostpreva- lentforcesofculturalchange,otherfactorswereatwork.Amongtheseoth- erfactors,culturalcalamitywasthemostdisruptiveand,potentially,the mostthoughtprovokingsincesomesortofreevaluationofpreviouslyheld culturalassumptionscouldberequiredtoovercomethesituation.⁸Overthe yearsofusingthisparadigmoftheforcesofculturalchangeasateaching tooltoexplaintheevolutionof“WesternThought”inhistoricalterms,Ihave cometorealizecalamitycannotonlybenatural,manmade,orsomecombi- nationthereof,butalsothatcalamity,historically,isoftenthemainimpetus

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ofinventionanddiffusionaswell.Inotherwords,acalamityisbydefinition anunplannedexternalshocktoaculturalsystemthatforcesunwanted changeonasocietyanditsculture.Calamityisessentiallythereasonforthe oldsaying:“Necessityisthemotherofinvention.”⁹Ialsoliketopointoutto studentsthatinventionsorinnovationscanalsobeseenascalamitiesto some,sinceinventionsandinnovationcandisrupttraditionalculturalpat- ternsofworkorcustomarywaysofdoingthings.Consequently,innovations thatledtotheIndustrialRevolutionwerenotpositivedevelopmentsforev- eryone,ortheanti-mechanizationmovementsknownastheLudditeswould neverhavecomeabout.Moreover,globalizationhascreatedeconomicwin- nersandlosers,andundoubtedlythreatenedsomesmallertraditionalcul- turesandlanguagesaswell.

Thefourth editionofSamovarandPorter’s Communication Between Culture（CBC）cameoutin2001,butitwasundoubtedlywrittenbeforethe calamityofthe9/11terroristattacksthatbefelltheUnitedStates.Formany people,the1990swereatimeofunprecedentedsocialandculturalconver- gencearoundtheworldstimulatedbytheworld-widemovementofideas andpeoplefollowingtheinternalimplosionoftheSovietCommunistcom- mandeconomicandpoliticalsysteminEasternEurope,theendofhistory scenariomentionedabove.Thedevelopmentofworld-widemassmediasys- tems,CNN,BBC,&AlJazeera,andmasstransportationsystemsaccompa- niedbytheadventoftheinternet,andsignificanttransnationalmigration madeinterculturalcommunicationnotonlyareality,butalsoatruenecessi- tyformorepeoplethananytimeinhumanhistory.Itisperhapsnotsurpris- ing,then,thatinSamovarandPorter’sfourth editionthediscussionofcul- tural change is embedded in the second chapter of CBC titled

“CommunicationandCulture:TheVoiceandtheEcho;”whereascultural changewasdealtwithinthethirdchapterofthefirst editionofCBCenti- tled“Culture:OurInvisibleTeacher.”Consequently,thedefinitionofwhat werethemostcommonmechanismsofculturalchangewasalteredslightly inthefourth editionaswell,toinnovation,diffusion,andacculturation.¹⁰This subtlealterationwasanalmostpoeticallusionsincetheyalsostartedthedis-

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cussionaboutculturalchangeinthefourth editionwithaquotationfromthe ancientGreekphilosopherHeraclitusaboutonenotbeingabletostepinthe samerivertwice.¹¹Althoughonemightsupposethatjustasriverschange duetotheconstantinfusionofnewwaterandcultureschangeduetothe constantinfluxesofnewinformation,peopleandwritersaswellchangedue todifferentexperiencesovertime.Themostnotablechangewas,ofcourse, thedroppingofcalamityinfavorofacculturation,nonetheless.Theuseofin- novationseemstostemfromanewemphasisonculturesreinventingthem- selves,althoughtheunderlyingdefinitionof“thediscoveryofnewpractices, toolsandconcept”¹²remains.Diffusionstaysaconstant,buttheprocess,“ac- celerateswhenculturescomeintodirectregularcontact,”¹³whichhasbeen thecasethroughoutthemostrecentglobalizationphaseofthelastthirty years.Thenewemphasisonacculturationseemstoreflecttheneedsofnew- lyimmigrantpopulationstoadapttothenormsofmoredominantcultures andsocietiestheychoosetojoin.

The elevation of acculturation to a primary mechanism of cultural changeseemsjustifiableinadomesticcontextwherethekeytosuccessfor newimmigrantsisadaptingtoandharmonizingwithadominantculture.In thefourth editionSamovarandPortergoontopointoutthatculturesare integratedsystemsthathaveinmanycasesadaptedandchangeddueto

“naturaldisasters,warsandothercalamities.”¹⁴Theyalsonotethatwhile

“manyaspectsofculturearesubjecttochange,thedeepstructureofacul- tureresistsmajoralterations.”¹⁵Consequently,sometypesofinnovationsand culturalproductsmaybeeasilydiffusedandadopted;whereasothertypes ofinnovationsandculturalproductsmayfaceresistanceiftheychallengeor conflictwithdeeplyheldvalues,beliefs,orattitudes.

Nevertheless,changeisalwaysaconstanttosomedegree,andchanges presentopportunitiesforprofitsorpossibilitiesoflossesfordifferentpeople.

Moreover,sincediffusionisusuallywrappedinaprocessofhumaninterac- tionsknownastradeorcommerceatsomelevel,culturalchangewillusually haveeconomicconsequences,oreconomicchangewillusuallyhavecultural consequences.OneofthereasonsIhavealwaysfoundSamovarandPorter’s

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majorforcesofculturalchangesoattractiveandusefulovertheyearsis thattheirforcesofculturalchangeclearlyoverlapwiththemarketforces thatIhadstudiedasagraduatestudentofEconomics.

III. The Determinants of Supply and Demand:

What Shifts the Curves

Economistsgenerallyconceiveoftheirvaunteddownwardslopingde- mand curveas a functionof consumers’incomes,so as pricesdecrease greaterquantitiesofagoodcanpotentiallybepurchasedgivenacertainlev- elofincome.Thisisdepictedonanx-ygraphwiththehorizontalx-axisbe- ingthepossiblequantitiesofagoodpurchasedandtheverticaly-axisbeing thepossibleprices（amountofmoney）thesamegoodcouldbepurchasedat.

Therearemanythingswhichcouldaffectconsumers’decisionstobuy,in- cludingthedesiretosaveforsomelaterbiggerpurchase;however,there arethreefactorseconomistswidelyagreethatcananddoaffectconsumers’

realmsofchoices,andconsequentlyshiftmarketdemandcurvesforany productorservice.Thesefactorsare:1）changesinincome,2）changesin thepricesofsubstituteproductsorservices,orcomplementaryproductsor servicesconsumerscouldchoosetobuyanduse,and3）changesinconsum- ers’tastesandpreferences.¹⁶

Conversely, economists generally conceive oftheir vaunted upward slopingsupplycurveasafunctionofaproducer’scoststhatincreasewith thecostofexpandedproduction,atleastintheshortrun.So,greaterquanti- tiescanonlybeproducedintheshortrunifhigherpricescanbeobtained tocompensateforthehighercosts.Thisisdepictedonanx-ygraphwith thehorizontalx-axisbeingthepossiblequantitiesofagoodsoldandthever- ticaly-axisbeingthepossibleprices（amountofmoney）thesamegood couldbesoldat.Therearemanyreasonswhichcouldaffectproducers’deci- sionstoproduce,buttheprimarymotivatortoproduceorsellisalwaysas- sumedtobeeconomicgain,i.e.,profitorinsomecasestheminimizationof loss.Thereisslightlylessagreementonwhatmostaffectsproducers’orre- tailers’decisionstosell,butthreefactorsseemthemostcommon.Thesefac-

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torsare:1）changesininputprices,2）changesintechnology,and3）chang- esinthenumberofproducers¹⁷orofoverallsizeoftheindustry,¹⁸and4）

changesingovernmentregulationthatcouldaffectanyoftheotherthree aforementionedfactors.

Atriskofmuddyingthewatersabit,whileshowingsomecommon senseunderstandingofrealitythatdetractsfromtheusualdescriptionof upwardslopingsupplycurves,therearetwoextremecaseswhereproduc- tioncanneitherbeincreasednordecreasedsothatsupplycannotbealtered intheimmediateshortrun.Inthefirstcase,thesupplycurveiseffectively vertical,andsosupplyisessentiallyunresponsivetorisingorfallingprices.

Thisiswhateconomistscallapriceinelasticsupplysituation,whererising demandcontinuestojustdriveuppricesandfallingdemanddoestheoppo- site,drivingdownprices.Thesearemostcommonlyexperiencedaslandor stockpricebubbles,whenpricescaninflateveryquickly,orlandorstock pricecrashes,whenpricescandeflateveryquickly.Onamoredailyscale relatedtothethemeofcalamitythatwewilleventuallybegettingbackto, thesuppliesofdisposablefacemasksandhandsanitizerswereeffectively fixedandpriceinelasticatthebeginningoftheyearAD2020whenthescale ofthedangerfromtheCOVID-19virusbegantoberealized.Consequently, pricesrosesignificantlyintheshorttermandeventuallystockswerewiped outbyhoardinguntilsupplieswereincreasedbynewproducersandalter- nativesubstituteproductslikeclothreusablemasks,etc.

Thesecondextremecaseiswhenthesupplycurveisbasicallyhorizon- talandperfectlypriceelastic.Thequantitysuppliedcouldexpandinfinitely atthesameprice,orwithveryminorincreasesinprice.Inthiscase,the suppliersarebasicallypricetakersandhaveverylittleabilitytoaffectpric- esotherthantorefusetosell.Theclassicexamplesofthesearethefairly standardfreshfoodcommoditieswithlittleornobrandrecognitionthatcan influenceconsumers’preferences.Insomecases,thesupplycurvescould evenbecomedownwardsloppingiftheproductsbeingsuppliedareperish- able.Thenthemainmotivatorisreducingpotentiallosses,anddiscounting ensuestogetridofthelastofstockbeforethenewsuppliescomein.Ifyou

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have ever been to a supermarket in Japan and bought discounted pre- cookeditemsjustbeforeclosingordiscountedslightlyblemishedfruitsor vegetables,thenthesepriceelasticandpotentialdownwardslopingsupply curvesituationswouldbequitefamiliar.

IV. The Overlap of the Forces of Economic and Cultural Change Itshouldbesomewhatobviousbynowthatthesemajorforcesofcul- turalchange,namelyinvention/innovation,diffusion,calamity,andaccultura- tionhaveeconomicimplications.Supplyshiftscausedbychangesininput prices,technology,orthenumberofproducers,andshiftsindemandstimu- latedbychangesinincome,thepricesofsubstitutesorcomplements,and consumers’preferencesareofteninitiatedbyculturalchanges.However, sometimesmarketforcesarethecauseofculturalchangesaswell.Themost obviouscommonalitytobothculturalandeconomicchangesistechnological changeandcertainlyoneofthemostsignificantoverall.

Ifyouwanttogetaneconomistexcitedmentionthewordsinnovation orinvention.Innovationorinvention,alsoknownaschangesintechnology, areattheheartoftheconceptofproductivity.What’smore,changesinpro- ductivityaffectbothsupplyanddemandpossibilities.Productivitydirectly impactsthesupplycurve,whichisessentiallyacurvethatexpressespro- ductionpossibilities（quantitysupplied）,aspriceschangegivenafixedlevel oftechnology.Innovationsorimprovementsintechnologyshiftthesupply curveoutandtotheright,expandingthequalitiessuppliedatlowerprices.

Amore-for-lesssituationwhichusuallyexcitesconsumersaswell.

Inaddition,improvedproductivitythatcomeswithtechnologicalim- provementsaffectsdemandindirectlysinceimprovedproductivitycanlead tohigherincomes.Ifaproducercanproducemoreforlesssomeoftheextra profitscan,atleastintheory,besharedwithworkers.Thedemandcurveis essentiallyacurvethatshowsthepossibleconsumptionchoices（quantity demand）availableaspriceschangegivenafixedlevelofincome.So,ifin- comerises,thedemandcurvealsoshiftsoutandtotheright.

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Fortheeconomist,diffusionandacculturationwouldbetwosidesofthe samecoin.Diffusionisthespreadingofnewculturalitems,expandingthe supplyofproductsandconsumers’choices.Acculturationistheadoptionof someofthosenewproductchoicesandthepotentialabandoningorreducing theconsumptionofpreviouslyuseditems.Thisprocessshiftssomedemand curvesoutandtotherightasmorepeopleadoptthenewculturalitemsand shiftotherdemandcurvesinandtotheleftasmorepeopleabandonprevi- ouslyuseditems:substitution.Diffusionandadoptioncouldhavesomeim- pactonthesupplyside,eitherthroughchanginginputpricesorchanging thenumberofsuppliersorenlargingthemarketsize.Adoptionofnewcul- turalitemsisalmostbydefinitionachangeoftastesandpreferencesshifting demand,andalongwiththechangeofpreferencesthedemandforsome substituteproductsorcomplementarygoodsarelikelytobeimpactedas well.

Finally,lookingbacktocalamity,wecanfindpotentialformajorshifts inbothsupplyanddemand.Acalamitybyitsverydefinitionisanunexpect- edshocktoaculturethatforcessomeadaptationoracculturationtotake place.Calamities,likewarsandnaturaldisastersincludingdrought,earth- quakes,floods,hurricanes,typhons,tsunamis,andvolcaniceruptionsoften damagecropsanddisruptsupplychainsandimpactinputprices;these typesofcalamitiescanliterallyreversetechnologicalprogressbydestroying productivecapacity,e.g.,factoriesandinfrastructure,andconsequentlyre- ducethenumberofproducersaswell.Sincecalamitiescanimpactproduc- tivecapacityandreducethenumberofproducers,jobsarelikelytobelost.

Joblossesnegativelyinfluenceincomeandimpactdemand,causingchanges inconsumers’tastesandpreferenceaspeopleareforcedtoadjustto“anew normal”ofincomeandconsumptionopportunities.Asaresult,thenewnor- malmaycausepeopletomakechoicesthatleadthemtosubstituteprevious preferredproductswithotherstheymaynothaveevenpreviouslyconsid- ered.Shiftsindemandcanmovesupplierstoclosedowncompletelyinsome marketsandjoininothers,andthecyclecontinues.

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V. Historical Cases of Calamity and Cultural Change

PerhapsoneofthereasonsSamovarandPorterdroppedcalamityinfa- vorofacculturationissimplythefactthatnotallcalamitiesproducethe samelong-termchangesinculture.Theeconomist’ssupplyanddemand curvesareveryresponsivetonaturalcalamitiesbecausetheyquicklyim- pactproducersandconsumersthroughthemarketmechanismsdiscussed earlier.However,suchcalamitiesmayonlycauseshorttermadaptivere- sponses,whichaccommodateandacculturateapopulationanditscultureto somedegree,butdonotstimulatesignificantchangetotheculture’sdeep structure.TheeruptionofMt.Vesuvius,arguablythemostfamousvolcanic eruptioninhistory,besidesperhapsKrakatoa,givesusawonderfulsnapshot ofthedecadentlifestyleofthewell-to-doRomans,butbyitselfitdidnot changethesocietiesandculturesoftheRomanempire.MyfamilyandI wereabroadwhentheMarch11,2011earthquakeandtsunamihitJapan.

UponreturningtoJapanattheendofApril,Iwasshockedtoseehowdark thecityofTokyowasduetothedisruptionstotheelectricalgridandshut- downofnuclearpowerplantsacrossthecountry.Nevertheless,thelights areonagainnow,andeventhetsunamisubmergednuclearreactorsthat didnotexperiencemeltdownswillbebackonlinesoon.Hurricanescontinue tohitFloridaandtheGulfCoastyearly,butforthemostpartpeoplejust clearupandrebuildasdothosewhosufferthroughthedevastationsofty- phons,tornadoes,landslides,andwildfires.EventheBiblicalstoryofthe greatflooddescribedintheBookofGenesisthatwassupposedtopurifyhu- manitydidnotachieveitspurposeofchanginghumanculture,andhumans continuetosintothisday.¹⁹Consequently,itisnottrulysurprisingthatthe reactiontoclimatechangehasbeensopiecemealevenasregionalcalamities seemtobeincreasing.Asenseofcrisisstillhasnotdevelopedamonglarge sectionsoftheglobalpopulationtomaketheincreasinglycalamitousimpacts ofworld-widetemperatureincreasesandperceptiblechangesinclimate graveenoughtoforcepeopletochangetheirculturalbeliefsandhabits.

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AsJaredDiamondpointedoutinhisEpiloguetoUpheaval,theunderly- ingcausesofcrisesoftenexistforyearsbeforethecrisisisfullyrecognized.

Moreover,acknowledgingacrisisandtakingresponsibilityforitwithoutre- lyingonsomesenseofvictimizationarejustthefirststepsanynationor groupofpeoplemustpassthroughtotrulydealwithanycrisisinapositive successfulmanner.²⁰

NotallcalamitiesareequalthoughandasSusanWiseBauerapply notes:war,plague,anddrought,whichistraditionallyfollowedbyfamine, canbe“enoughtoupsetthebalanceofacivilization.”²¹Thesetypesofcalam- itiesusuallysetoffmassmigrationsthatcanbequitedisruptivetoother neighboringpoliticalentitiesandcultures.Theexactcausesoftheendofthe BronzeAgeandthefirstgreatpowersystemintheancientNearEastbe- tweentheBabylonian,EgyptianandHittiteEmpiresisnotknown.Themain theoryhadlongbeenthatsomesignificantdisruptionliketheinvasionofthe SeaPeopleintoEgypt,AsiaMinorandtheLevanthadoccurred,however otherpossibilities such as famine caused by drought,or laborshortage causedbydiseaseorpalacerevoltshavebeenputforthrecently.²²Inany case,oncetheHittiteEmpirecollapsed,sodidtheinternationaltradeand diplomaticexchangesystemthatsupportedtheflowsofcopperandtinbe- tweenthegreatpowersandtheEasternMediterranean.Everyoneneeded tinandcoppertoproducebronze,buteveryonealsohadtoimportthesere- sourcesfromdifferentsources.Thisdisruptionledtoafundamentalchange inmetallurgy,withthesubstitutionofironandtheusecharcoalfurnaces leadingtothesubsequentinventionofsteel.²³Another“necessityisthe motherofinvention”scenario,wherecalamityleadstotechnologyinnovation andeconomicandculturalchange.

ThepopularconceptionoftheFourHorsemenofApocalypse:Famine, Pestilence,War,andDeathasdepictedinAlbrechtDurer’sAD1498wood- blockwiththewhitehorsesymbolizingConquest（Pestilence）,theredhorse War,theblackhorseFamine,andthepalegreyhorseasDeath²⁴reallyjust reflectsthehistoricintertwiningnatureofthesecalamitiesaspeoplehave oftenexperiencedthem.Iwasabitpuzzledbythesubstitutionorlinkageof

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pestilenceandconquest,untilIcameacrossreferencestotheIliadinBau- er’sbookandthegodApolloastheLordoftheMice.Apparently,inthe openingoftheIliad,aTrojanpriestbeseechesApollotosendillnesstothe attackingGreeks.Apollocompliesbysendingdownarrowsthatinfectboth humansandanimalswithsymptomsthatsoundverymuchlikethebubonic plague.TheideaofthevictoriousGreeksreturningfromTroywiththeir holdsfullofbootyaswellassomeplague-carryingratsisnotanimpossibili- ty.²⁵Anothermoredefinitivecaseofplagueconnectedtowar,conquest,and deathistheplaguethatstuckAthensduringthePeloponnesianWarin 430BCwhilethepeopleoftheAtticacountrysideweretakingrefugefrom theSpartanarmiesinsidethecitywalls.ThemajorityofAtheniandeaths duringthefirsttwoyearsofthewarwasduetothisplagueincludingthe deathoftheAtheniangeneralPericles.²⁶Thewarofattritioncarriedonbe- tweenAthensandSpartaandtheiralliesuntil404BC.Intheend,Athenswas defeated,broke,andangrywithapproximatelyseventythousanddeaddue toplague,war,andpoliticalpurges.²⁷Inthewakeofthisdevastation,however,philosophyandtheartsseemedtohavethrived.EventhoughSocrates wasputontrialandsentencedtodeathin399BC,PlatoopenedhisAcademy in387BCafterseveralyearsoftravel.²⁸Moreover,manyofAristophanes’co- medicplayscameoutofthisperiod.²⁹

I was a bit surprised recently when I came across a reference in NormanCantor’sbookAntiquitytowhatwastomeapreviouslyunknown seriesofcalamities.CantorpointedoutthatthepopulationoftheRoman Empireshrunkbyroughlyaquarterinthelast250yearsleadinguptothe finalsackofRome,andthatthecauseofthedeclinewasthespreadofdis- eases.³⁰TheRomanshadaverygoodtransportationsystemwithshipping aroundtheMediterraneanSeaandtheRomanMilitaryRoadstofacilitate themovementofthelegionstotroublespotsalongthefrontier.Onemust supposethatifmerchantsandearlyChristianmissionariesmadeuseofthis transportationnetwork,diseasescouldhavetraveledalongthemaswell.For themostpart,ithadalwaysappearedtheslowdeclineoftheWesternhalf oftheRomanEmpirehadbeenduetotheothertraditionalcalamity:war.

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Nonetheless,intheRomancaseIsupposeweshouldmakethedistinction betweentwotypesofwar:thevariousinternalcivilwarsfoughtbetween differentlegionsthathaddeclaredtheirleaderimperator（emperor）,and thewarsfoughtagainsttheinvadingGermanictribes.Althoughthesewars certainlyseemtobepartofthestoryoftheeternalcity’scollapse,Cantor pointedoutthatthedemographiccalamitycausedbydisease,i.e.,variousep- idemics including the Antonine Plague ofAD165 and Cyprian Plague of

AD249³¹diminishedproduction,reducedthetaxbase,andultimatelycaused

“ashortageofsoldierstoprotectthefar-flungimperialfrontiers.”³²Once again,theFourHorsemenandtheirrespectivecalamitiesdoseemtorideto- gether.

SusanBaueralsonotedthat:“plaguetendedtofollowfamine;grainship- mentsfromonepartoftheworldtoanothercarriedratsfromonecityto thenext,spreadingdiseaseacrossanotherwiseunlikelydistance.”³³The PlagueofJustinianofAD541^-542andtheBlackDeathofAD1347^-1351that supposedlykilledsomethingontheorderof30millionand200millionpeople respectively³⁴werebothattributedtograinshipments.Ofthetwo,theBlack Deathisthoughttohavehadthemuchmorefar-reachingculturalandeco- nomicimpacts.

IntheyearsprecedingtheBlackDeath,theEarthseemstohaveexpe- riencedacoolingcycleduetohugevolcaniceruptionsinwhatisnowIndo- nesiathatthrewashcloudsthesizeofcontinentsintotheatmosphere.By

AD1316thesecloudsreachedEngland,firstaffectingharvestswithalackof sunshineandlaterwithtoomuchrainforgoodgrainproduction,ultimately causingfamine.³⁵

PriortoAD1300Europehadarapidlyexpandingpopulationbutlowde- greesofagriculturaloutput.TheBlackDeathshiftedpreviouseconomicim- balancesbetweenlaborinthecountrysideandthelandholdingelitethat startedwithexodusoftheelitefromthecitiesduringtheplaguesofthelat- terdaysoftheRomanEmpireandlaidtheframeworkforFeudalism.³⁶Geo- metricpopulationgrowthofruralagriculturallaborcoupledwithalackof technicalinnovationandonlyminorincreasesinfoodoutputmeantthatfood

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supplieswereclosetothebreakingpointevenbeforetheclimatechanges thatcausedbadharvests.Thesubsequentfaminesfollowedbytheplague broughtaboutmassivepopulationdeclinesandaturningpointintheeco- nomichistoryofEurope.³⁷Socially,highdeathratesamongstallclasses broughtaboutashufflingoflandassetsandtheincreasedimportanceof commonlawlawyerstosortoutinheritanceissuesassomegreatnameslit- erallydisappeared.³⁸Somebetter-offruralpeasantswereabletoacquire morelandandjointheyeomanclasswhileotherseitherremainedatthe bottomoftheeconomicladderinruralareasormovedtocitiesasserfdom slowlydisappeared.³⁹Culturally,themassextinctionledtovariousreinter- pretationsofChristianityandawidespreadbelieftheworldmustbecloseto theend.

AsEuropewasfinallyrecoveringfromthedualcalamitiesoffamineand plague,thelossofConstantinopletotheOttomanTurksinAD1453sent scholarsandpreviouslyunknowntextwestward,justastheinventionofthe printingpresswasstartingtomakeliteracyamorewidespreadpossibility.⁴⁰ Theinventionoftheprintingpressallowedforthemassproductionoftravel accountsandmapsthatledtotheageofexploration.Duringtheearlystag- esoftheageofexploration,reallytheageofconquestiftheterm‘conquista- dor’istakenliterally,theGreatPlagueoftheNewWorldstartedwiththe conquestofMexicoaroundAD1520.ThisdiffusionofdiseasesfromtheOld Worldcontinuedonwardforthenext300yearsorso,asmoreoftheNative Americanpopulationwereexposedtosmallpoxandotherpreviouslyun- knowndiseases,theyhadnoimmunityto.Therewereanumberoflocalized epidemicsduringthe17th,18thand19thcenturies,butnothingonthescale ofearlierplaguesuntiltheSpanishinfluenzapandemicthatstartsinthe closingdaysofWorldWarI.

ThewordpandemiccomesfromtheGreekword‘pandemos’thatisde- rivedfrom‘pan’meaning“all”and‘demos’meaningpeople,⁴¹orsomething thatcanaffectallpeople.Duetothetechnologicalinnovationsinnavigation andshipping,theSpanishinfluenzapandemicwasthefirsttrulyglobalscale plague.BetweenthetimetheConquistadorsbroughtoldworlddiseasesto

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theNativeAmericansandtheUnitedStatesjoinedthealliedpowerinthe GreatWaragainstthePrussianandAustrianEmpires,theworldhadad- vancedthroughseveraleconomicandculturalchangeswithtrulyglobalim- plications.

ThecolonizationofNorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,Australiaandmost ofAfricaandAsiahaddiffusedChristianityfarbeyonditsoriginsinthe NearEast,andwhereitdevelopeditsdistinctive“Western”rootsininthe extremitiesoftheEuropeanPeninsula.Thefirststagesofconquestandex- pansionweresupportedbytheinventionsandtechnicalimprovementsin navigation,mapmakingandprinting.However,thefinalstagesofworldwide empirebuildingweremadepossiblebythemoreadvancedtechnologiesof theIndustrialRevolution.Particularly,thesteamenginehadmadebothland travelviatrainsandoceantravelonsteamshipsmorereliable.Moreover,the developmentofland-basedtelegraphnetworksandthelayingoftransocean- ic telegraph cables shortened global communication times down from monthsandweekstohoursandminutes.

TheglobalspreadoftheSpanishfluandtherealizationofitsdangers weremadepossiblebytheworldwidesteamshippingbusinessandtheim- provement in communication technologies that now separated physical transportfromthedeliveryofnewsforthefirsttimeinhumanhistory.In thewakeoftheinfluenzapandemicandWWI,anewsystemofborder checks,passports,andimmigrationrestrictionsweredevelopedintheU.S.

andaroundtheworld.⁴²Thesenewdocumentationrequirementsbasically limitedtheeaseofmigrationfromtheOldWorldtotheNewandputthe economicmodelofpassengershippingonalongslowpathoflong-termde- cline.Adeclinethatfinallyendedthetransoceanicpassengershippingindus- tryoncethepassengerairlineindustrytrulytookoffinthelate1950swith adventofjettravelshorteningthetypicaltransatlanticjourneydownfrom 5^-7daystoanovernightflight.⁴³Theincreasedspeedoftravelhasincreased thespeedofpotentialinfectioustransmissionsandthevariousworldwidein- fluenzaoutbreaksovertheyears,sincethedevelopmentofthenetworkof worldwideairtravelisverymuchpartofthatstory.

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VI. The Current Pandemic and the Developing Crisis

TheSpanishflupandemiclastedforapproximatelythreeyearsand killedapproximately40millionpeopleworldwide.⁴⁴OurcurrentCOVID-19 pandemicissomewhatofareplayoftheearlierpandemicsandplagueswith technologicaladd-ons.WitnessingthequarantineoftheDiamondPrincess cruiseshipinYokohamaBayinearlyFebruary2020wasinmanywaysnot sodifferentthanshipquarantinesthatwouldhavetakenplacearoundthe worldduringtheSpanishFlupandemicacenturyagoorintheMediterra- neanportsduringtheBlackDeathofthe14thcentury.Therecommenda- tionsofsocialdistancing,maskwearing,andhandwashingwerecommon duringthelastpandemicaswell,⁴⁵butthatisprobablyjustthemodernreal- izationthatgoodhygienepreventsthespreadofdiseaseinanycase.There- treatfromthecitiestomorespaciouscountryestatesbythosewhocan manageithasbeenacommonpracticesincetheAntoninePlague,⁴⁶butwith varyingdegreesofsuccessdependingonthepathogen.

Whichculturalchangeswillbecausedbythiscalamity?Thelong-term culturalchangesaremoredifficulttopredictthantheshort-termeconomic consequences.Nonetheless,itisobviousthattheinitialclosingofborders andrestrictionsoninternationaltravelhasbeenfarmoreextensivethan anythingwehaveexperiencedsincethejetageoftravelbeganin1958.⁴⁷ Thefinancialcrisisof2008onlyaffectedflightsmarginally,⁴⁸theattacksof September11,2001stoppedflightsforonly3days,⁴⁹andtheSovietsshooting downofKoreanAirlinesFlight007in1983,likeseveralsimilartragedies since,hadlong-termdiplomaticandpoliticalimplications,⁵⁰butdidnotdis- ruptairtravelsignificantly.

Flightdisruptionsandborderclosuresbyalmosteverycountryonthe UNmemberslistfromAfghanistantoZimbabwehavebeenextensiveand longlasting.AccordingtotheInternationalAirTransportAssociation’s COVID-19TravelRegulationMapasofOctober29,2020,lessthan10coun- triescurrentlyhavenotravelrestrictionatall,butmostofthemsharebor-

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derswithcountriesthathavetotallyrestrictedentrytotheircountries.The vastmajorityofUNmemberstatesstillhavepartiallyrestrictedentry,but whatthatmeanscanvarysignificantly.Forthemostpartitseemstothis verydaythatoutsideofcontinentalEuropemostcountriesareonlyallowing theentryoftheirownnationals.Australiaisonlypermittingtheircitizens, permanentresidents,andpeoplefromNewZealandtoenter.Canadahas similarrestrictionsinplaceuntilOctober31,2020.TheUnitedStatesstill hasrestrictionontheentryofpeoplewhohavebeeninEuropeanytimein theprevioustwoweeksexceptforUSnationalsandpermanentresidents.

Japanhasprohibitedtheentryofalmosteveryoneexceptitsowncitizens.⁵¹ Shockingly,thishasincludedpermanentresidentsofJapanthathappenedto beoutsideofJapanwhenthelockdownwentintoeffectonApril3,2020and theselong-termresidentshavenotevenbeenabletoapplytoreturnuntil quiterecently.⁵²

Internationalcommunicationsandnewsstoriesabouttheinfluenzapan- demicof1918^-1921travelledmuchfasterthanphysicaloceangoingtrans- port,buttherelativespeedofmostnewswashoursanddaysfortelegraphi- cally relayed newspaper reports, as compared to days and weeks for oceangoingjourneystobecompleted.Currently,internationalcommunica- tionsandnewsstoriesabouttheCOVID-19pandemicalsotravelmuchfaster thanphysicalairlinetransport,buttherelativespeedofmostnewsissec- onds,minutesoratmostperhapshoursforinternet,radioortelevisionre- ports,ascomparedtohoursordaysforairlinejourneystobecompleted,de- pendingonlayoversandtransittimes.TheearlystagesoftheCOVIDcrisis developedataleisurelypaceinJanuary,February,andearlyMarch,but oncethescaleofthedangersandcontagiousnessofthepathogenstartedto befullyrealizednationaldrawbridgescameupandlockdownswentintoef- fectinsuddensuccession.

Forthemostpart,internationaltradeandthetransportationofgoods aroundtheworldhavecontinuedevenasthemovementofpeoplehasbeen widelysuppressed.Thereisalittle-knownsideeffectofthisrelativesuccess intrade,however,thathascreatedalotofhumanhardshipintheglobal

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shippingindustry.Nearly400,000maritimeworkersonshipsaroundthe world, and another 400,000 on leave in their home countries have been strandedpasttheirnormalrotationperiodsdueto“travelbans,embarkation anddisembarkationrestrictions,orsuspensionintheissuanceoftraveldocu- ments.”⁵³

AccordingtoTheEconomist,thepandemicwillchange,butnotendglo- balization.Exceptinthecruiseshipindustrytransoceanicshipshavekept sailingforthemostpart;however,fairlyearlyonwhenChinawasexperi- encingtheworstofitsdomesticviralcontagion,theclosingofChinesefacto- riesstartedhavingrepercussionsinthesupplychainsofworldproduction.

Earliercalamitiesbackin2011likethetsunamiinJapanandfloodsinThai- landbegantoshowthedrawbacksof“justintime”longdistancesupply chains,butrecenttrendsineconomicnationalismandotherpoliticalrisks haveheightenedcorporateconcernsaboutbeingoverlydependentondis- tantsuppliers.However,thesetypesofcalamitiesandothersupplyshocks arenottheonlythingsthatwillbepushingproductiontowardsmoreglocal- ization,“thepracticeofconductingbusinessaccordingtobothglobalandlo- calconsiderations.”⁵⁴Socialmediathatacceleratestrendsandfadsincrease theneedforfasterresponsestoconsumers’demands,whilenewconcerns relatedtocorporateimageandsocialresponsibilityincreasefirms’conscious- nessaboutforeignlaborstandardsandenvironmentalfootprintsthatare moredifficulttomanageatadistance.⁵⁵Consequently,thereseemstobea generaltrendtowardinsourcingregionallyordomestically,butwhatcultur- alshiftthatbringsisnotyetclear.

Justastheclosingofborderstostopthespreadofthepandemicbe- tweencountrieshascreated‘collateralvictims’acrossbothtransnationalair andseatransport,andtheinternationaltourismsectors,thelockdowns,and morerecentlythepartialslowdownsresultingfromsocialdistancingrestric- tionswithincountrieshavecreatedothersetsofcollateralvictims.The worldwidepandemichascreatedthedeepest,mostsynchronizedworldeco- nomiccollapseonrecord,butmostofthosehardesthitvictimsareinthe leastglobalizedsectorssuchasrestaurants,cinemas,sportsclubs,andper-

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sonalserviceslikebeautysalons.⁵⁶However,theextentofthedamagevaries acrosscountriesandseemstobehavingavaryingimpactoncultures,per- hapssomewhatnaturallyor,paradoxically,duetoculturalinclinationsthem- selves.EastAsianshadlongwornmasksduringwinterfluseasons,spring hayfeverseasons,orasprotectionagainstdangerouslevelsofairpollution andwerenotknownforpublicdisplaysofaffectionexceptduringexcessive drinkingperhaps.ManyEuropeansandNorthAmericanshavetakenitasa personalaffrontthatanypoliticalauthoritiesshouldbeabletoadvisethem, orGodforbidevenorderthem,tomaskupinpublicplaces.⁵⁷Consequently, theculturaltraditionsofsocializinganddiningoutinEuropeandtheAmeri- cashavehadtoberestrictedmuchmoreseverelyintheseplacesthanin manycountriesinAsia,althougheating-in,take-away,thenewlyempowered internetbasedserviceslike‘UberEats’seemtobetheubiquitousacrosscul- turesnow.ItalsoappearsthatHollywood’sreluctancetoreleasemajormov- iesduringthepandemichasactuallyforcedcinemastoclosedown,⁵⁸which seemstohavecreatedmoreopportunitiesforlocalfilmmakersinJapanas itstheatersslowlyreopen.⁵⁹

AccordingtotheOECD,apartfromthetourismsector,thecultureand creativeservicessectorsespeciallythevenue-basedoneslikecinemas,festi- vals,livemusicperformances,museums,andperformingarts,havebeenthe mostseverelydamagedbysocial-distancingpoliciestoreducethespreadof thepandemic.Moreover,theeffectscouldbelonglasting,withlowerlevels ofdomesticandinternationaltourism,andpublicinvestmentredirecteddue tootherpolicypriorities.Bothofthesefactorscouldhavelong-termimplica- tionforcities.Lookingonthebrightadaptiveside,manyofthesecultural andcreativeformshavehadsomesuccessinthedigitalizationprocessand remoteviewingaswellasindevelopingnewinnovationsinprivatefunding.

Goingforward,culturalandcreativesectorscouldlikewisebecomekeysto sustainabledevelopmentifmanagedproperly.Videogaming,radio,televi- sion,andespeciallyonlinevideocontentstreaminghavedonequitewell throughthepandemicaspeoplespendmoretimeathome.⁶⁰

Lesstravelandtransportusagehaveundoubtedlybroughtenvironmen-

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talbenefitsaswellaseconomiclosses.Lockdownsareveryblunttoolsand bringaboutmoreeconomicdisparitysincenoteveryonecanworkathome digitally.ThisiswhyJapan’smodelofslowdownratherthanlockdown, wherephysicallaborjobsinagriculture,constructionandmanufacturing whatusedtobecalledthreeKworkinJapanese,orDworkinEnglish,‘kita- nai’ 汚い“dirty”,‘kiken’ 危険“dangerous”,and‘kitsui’ きつい“demanding”

havebeenredesignatedasessentialworklikesupermarkets,andmedical services.France’snewlockdownstrategyseemstobemodeledafterJapan’s slowdownstrategyexceptFranceisinamuchmoredirepositionthanJa- panhaseverbeen.⁶¹

Inaveryrealsensephysicallockdownsandslowdownshave,forany- onewhocouldworkfromhome,ledtoavirtualrebirthincorporatemana- gerialandadministrativeworkaswellasineducation,atleastattheuniver- sitylevel.TheCOVID-19calamityhasstimulatedalong-overduestageof technologicalandsocialexperimentationforbusinessesanduniversities.

Manywerereluctanttodothingsdigitallyandinmanycasesmuchofpast digitizationhadmanagedtomakethingsmorepaperless,thuskillingfewer trees,atthecostofrequiringmuchmoreairconditioningtocooltheservers holdingthetorrentofcourtesycopyemailscloggingupeveryone’sinbox.

Apparently,thepandemichasnotmortallywoundedtheofficeortheuni- versityquadandmanywouldlovetoreturntothein-personsettingassoon aspossible.However,businessasusualwillbeagreatlyalterednewnormal sincethepandemichasforcedofficeworkers,aswellasacademicstofully embracenewtechnologiesinmuchmoreactivewaysthantheywouldhave everdaredtoimagineevenayearago.Academicandcorporatecultures havealreadychanged,buttheywillhavetocontinuetoadapttothethreats ofnewunknowndisruptionsinthefuture.⁶²

VII. Conclusion

Thespreadofvirusesacrosstheworldisinsomewayslikeculturaldif- fusion.Onceapathogenspreadsitwilladaptandmutatetosomedegree,i.e.,

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acculturate.Sadly,thecurrentvirusseemstobedoingjustthat.⁶³Itsuppos- edlystartedinChina,diffusedtoEuropemutatinginanothergenepool,and thentraveledontotheAmericasandAfrica.Thiscouldbethemodernles- sonthatanynewviruscouldbetheproverbialMontezuma’srevengefor pastpandemics.

InDiamond’sUpheaval,healsolookedattheetymologyofthewordcri- sisinAsiaandnotedintermsofChinesepictographs“crisis,”“wei-ji”危機 wasacombinationofthecharacters:“wei” 危meaning‘danger’and“ji” 機 meaning‘opportunity’orcriticalmoment.⁶⁴Thesamekanjicombinationex- istsinJapanesebutispronouncedas“kiki”危機 .Ifounditinterestingthat bothlanguagesalsouse機torefertomachines.Therearealsothehom- onyms機会“kikai”meaning‘opportunity’and機械“kikai”meaning‘machine’

andsopotentially 危機couldbeadangerousmachineIsuppose,whichcould beasortoforacularwarningofthedangersofmindlesslyfollowingascript, e.g.,justdoingwhatthecarnavigationsysteminstructswithoutpayingat- tentiontowhereyouhavebeen,orthestepsnecessarytogettowhereyou wanttogo.Thefactthatacountrywithagovernmentthatdoesn’thaveto responddirectlytoitsownpeople’svoiceviatheballotboxmeansthatthe Chinesemodelfordealingwiththepandemicmaybeproblematicforcoun- triesthatdo.Attheveryleastcommunicatingwhatneedstobedoneand whyitneedstobedoneinaconsistentwayisaprerequisiteformaintaining credibilityandtrust.⁶⁵

Fearofcontagionhashadnegativeconsequencesonsocialcohesionin manyofthemoremulticulturalsocieties,exacerbatingalreadyfrayedsocial norms.Collectiveresponsibilitytothecommunityhasalwaysbeenaprereq- uisiteofhumansurvival,sopresentingabsolutefreedomofchoiceforthein- dividualasaviableculturaloptionforacivilizationhasalwaysbeenafalla- cy.Perhapsthemissinglinkisenlightenedself-interest.Majorcalamities havealwaysbroughtalongtheirownuniquenewwayofthinking.⁶⁶The BlackDeathandthefallofConstantinoplewerefollowedbytheRenaissance, butittookawhile.Hopefullyourculturalrenewalwillnottakesolong.

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Notes

1 EricHoffer,Reflections on the Human Condition, First Edition 1973 （Titusville, NJ:HopewellPublications,2006）,26.

2 New Oxford American Dictionary.

3 JaredDiamond,Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change（Great Britain:AllenLane,2019）,9.

4 New Oxford American Dictionary

5 LarryA.Samovar&RichardE.Porter,Communication Between Cultures（Bel- mont,CA:WadsworthPublishingCompany,1991）,59.

7 Samovar&Porter,Communication Between Cultures（1991）,59.

8 Samovar&Porter,（1991）,59.

9 Theexactsourceofthispopularproverbisunknown,butisoftenseenasa paraphraseofalinefromPlato’sRepublic“Ourneedwillbetherealcreator,”

whichwasrenderedas“Thetruecreatorisnecessity,whoisthemotherof ourinvention”inBenjaminJowett’s1894translationofPlato’sRepublic.

10 Larry A.Samovar &Richard E.Porter, Communication Between Cultures Fourth Edition（Belmont,CA:Wadsworth/ThomsonLearning,2001）,43.

11 Samovar&Porter,Communication Between Cultures Fourth Edition（2001）, 43.

16 WalterNicholson,Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions, Fourth Edition（Orlando,FL:TheDrydenPress,1989）,412.

17 WalterNicholson,Microeconomic Theory.（1989）,412.

18 WilliamJ.BaumolandAlanS.Blinder,Economics: Principles and Policy, Fourth Edition （Orlando,FL:HarcourtBraceJovanovich,Inc.,1988）,61.

19 Genesis,Chapter6^-9

20 JaredDiamond,Upheaval, （2019）,423^-428.

21 SusanWiseBauer,The History of the Ancient World,（NewYork,NY:W.W.

Norton&Company,2007）,283.

22 MarcVanDeMieroop,A History of the Ancient Near East, ca 3000^-323 BC Second Edition,（Malden,MA:BlackwellPublishing,2007）,198^-200.

23 MarcVanDeMieroop,A History of the Ancient Near East,（2007）,202.

24 ThepopularconceptionissomewhatofaderivativeoffourBiblicalpassages.

Ezekiel14:21:God’s“foursoreactsofjudgement,famine,evilbeastsandpesti- lence.”Revelations6:8:Death…“tokillwithswordandwithfamineandwith pestilenceandwithwildbeastsoftheearth.”Zechariah6:2^-3“thefirstchariot hadredhorses,thesecondblackhorses,thethirdwhitehorses,andthefourth

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chariotdappledgreyhorses”sendouttopatroltheearth.Toaidinaninter- pretationofRevelations6:2^-7whereawhitehorseandrideris“toconquer”

andaredhorseandrideris“permittedtotakepeacefromtheearth,”anda blackhorseandriderwithascaleseemingtobebarteringfood.

25 SusanWiseBauer,The History of the Ancient World,（2007）,283.

26 SusanWiseBauer,（2007）,548.

27 Bauer,（2007）,570.

28 IvanSoll,“Plato,”The World Book Encyclopedia P Volume 15,（Chicago,IL:

FieldEnterprisesEducationCorporation,1975）,504.

29 Bauer,（2007）,570.

30 NormanF.Cantor,Antiquity: From the Birth of the Sumerian Civilization to the Fall of the Roman Empire,（NewYork,NY:HarperCollinsPerennialEdi- tion,2004）,45.

31 MichelleDotzert,“ATimelineofPandemics:Howpathogenshaveshapedour history,”Clinical Lab Mangerhttps://www.clinicallabmanager.com/insight/

a-timeline-of-pandemics-22047Accessed22October,2020.

32 NormaF.Cantor,Antiquity（2004）,45.

33 Bauer,（2007）,283.

34 NicholasLePan,“Avisualhistoryofpandemics,”World Economic Forum,

<https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-visual-history-of-pandemics>

Accessed22October,2020.

35 NormanF.Cantor,In the Wake of the Plague: The Black Death and the World it Made, （NewYork,NY:Simon&Schuster,2001）,74^-75.

36 NormanF.Cantor,Antiquity: From the Birth of the Sumerian Civilization to the Fall of the Roman Empire,（NewYork,NY:HarperCollinsPerennialEdi- tion,2004）,51.

37 ThomasF.X.Noble,et.al.,Western Civilization: Beyond Boundaries, Volume I:

To 1715, Advantage Edition Sixth Edition,（Boston,MA:Wadsworth,Cengage Learning,2011）,307.

38 NormanF.Cantor,In the Wake of the Plague: The Black Death and the World it Made, （NewYork,NY:Simon&Schuster,2001）,125.

39 NormanF.Cantor,In the Wake of the Plague, （2001）,203.

40 ThomasF.X.Noble,et.al.,Western Civilization: Beyond Boundaries, Volume I:

To 1715,（2011）,333.

42 GiuliaPines,“TheContentiousHistoryofthePassport,”National Geographic, May16,2017,<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/features/a-history-of-the-passport/>,Accessed27October,2020.

43 BobDickinsonandAndyVladimir,Selling the Sea: An Inside Look at the Cruise Industry, Second Edition（NewYork:JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,2008）,20.

44 NicholasLePan,“Avisualhistoryofpandemics,”World Economic Forum,

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<https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-visual-history-of-pandemics>

45 BenBenton,“1918Spanishflupandemicseemsfamiliarin2020”Chattanooga Times Free Press,October24,2020,<https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/

local/story/2020/oct/24/1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-seems-familiar- 2020/534759/#/questions>Accessed27October,2020.

46 NormanF.Cantor,Antiquity,（2004）,51.

47 IATA,“COVID-19TravelRegulationMap,”IATA TravelCentre,October28, 2020,<https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/world.php> Accessed29October, 2020.PanAmericanWorldAirwaysflewtheirfirstnon-stopflightfromNew YorktoParisonaBoeing707jetonOctober26,1958.

48 CAPA, “Global economic crisis has cost the airline industry two years of growth:IATA,”CAPA Centre for Aviation,December1,2009,<https://cen- treforaviation.com/analysis/reports/global-economic-crisis-has-cost-the-aviation- industry-two-years-of-growth-iata-15921>Accessed29October,2020.

49 CNN. “Flights Resume, but situation remains tense.” September 14, 2001

<https://edition.cnn.com/2001/TRAVEL/NEWS/09/13/faa.airports/>

50 ThomPatterson,“ThedowningofFlight007:30yearslater,acoldwartragedy still seems surreal.” CNN, August 31, 2013, <https://edition.cnn.

com/2013/08/31/us/kal-fight-007-anniversary/index.html> Accessed29Octo- ber,2020.

51 IATA,“COVID-19TravelRegulationMap,”Accessed29October,2020.Having Halloweenasthecutoffpointdoesn’tseemtobodewellforthespread,but April1ststartssocommoninJapandon’tseemsoauspiciouseither.

52 BenDooley,“Japan’sLockedBordersShaketheTrustofitsForeignWorkers,”

New York Times,August5,2020,<https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/

business/japan-entry-ban-coronavirus.html>Accessed29October,2020.

53 UnitedNations.“Moreactionneededforseafarers,‘collateralvictim’ofmeasure to curb COVID-19” UN News, October 6, 2020, 2020 <https://news.

un.org/en/story/2020/10/1074732>Accessed28October.

54 New Oxford American Dictionary.

55 TheEconomist,“ThePerilandPromise,”The Economist, October10,2020, SpecialReport:TheWorldEconomy,7.

56 TheEconomist,“ThePerilandPromise,”The Economist, October10,2020, SpecialReport:TheWorldEconomy,6.

57 PeterDizikes,“WhencultureclasheswithCovid-19,”MIT News,June25,2020,

<https://news.mit.edu/2020/when-culture-clashes-covid-19^-0625>Accessed27 October,2020.

58 JazminGoodwinandCharlesRiley,“RegalandCineworldcinemasareshutting down across the US and UK” CNN BUSINNESS, <https://edition.cnn.

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com/2020/10/04/business/regal-cinemas-theater-shutdown/index.html> Ac- cessed30October,2020.

59 MarkSchilling,“RebootingJapan’smoviebusiness,onetheateratatime,”Ja- pan Times, May 28, 2020, <https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2020/

05/28/films/movie-theaters-coronavirus/>Accessed30October.

60 OECD. “Culture Shock: COVID-19 and the cultural and creative sectors.”

OECD Policy Response to Coronavirus （CoVID-19）.September7,2020,ac- cessed28October,2020<https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/

culture-shock-covid-19-and-the-cultural-and-creative-sectors-08da9e0e/>.

61 HelenParkinson,“Coronavirus:WhatisthecurrentsituationinFrance?,”Com- plete France,October30,2020,<https://www.completefrance.com/travel/coronavirus-2020-is-it-safe-to-travel-to-france-1^-6555880>Accessed30October.

62 TheEconomist,“Officepolitics,”The Economist, September12,2020,9.

63 CliveCookson,“ScientistwarnofnewcoronavirusspreadingacrossEurope,”

Financial Times, October 29, 2020, <https://www.ft.com/content/

2782655a-0441^-4d38-bb03^-5c4e67ead110>Accessed30October,2020.

64 JaredDiamond,Upheaval, （2019）,34.

65 PeterDizikes,“WhencultureclasheswithCovid-19,”MIT News,June25,2020,

<https://news.mit.edu/2020/when-culture-clashes-covid-19^-0625>Accessed27 October.

66 LawrenceWright,“HowPandemicsWreakHavoc–AndOpenMinds”The New Yorker, July 20, 2020 Issue, <https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/07/20/how-pandemics-wreak-hacoc-and-open-minds> Accessed28 October,2020.

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（異文化コミュニケーション・西洋思想史・経済学／国際文化学部教授）