JAIST Repository
https://dspace.jaist.ac.jp/ Title 参加者の双曲志向が組織的意思決定に及ぼす影響 : 改 良ゴミ箱モデルによるシミュレーション Author(s) 安藤, 良祐; 永田, 晃也 Citation 年次学術大会講演要旨集, 34: 642-645 Issue Date 2019-10-26Type Conference Paper Text version publisher
URL http://hdl.handle.net/10119/16646
Rights
本著作物は研究・イノベーション学会の許可のもとに 掲載するものです。This material is posted here with permission of the Japan Society for Research Policy and Innovation Management.
㸰㹃㸯㸵
ཧຍ⪅ࡢ᭤ᚿྥࡀ⤌⧊ⓗពᛮỴᐃཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪
㸫ᨵⰋࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝࡼࡿࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥ㸫
ۑᏳ⸨Ⰻ♸㸦ࢥࣥࢧࣝࢸࣥࢢࣇ࣮࣒1㸧㸪Ọ⏣ஓ㸦ᕞᏛ㸧 [email protected]࣭せ᪨
⤌⧊䛾ពᛮỴᐃ䝥䝻䝉䝇ゎ᫂䛾䛯䜑䚸ពᛮỴᐃ䝰䝕䝹䜢⏝䛔䛶䝅䝭䝳䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁䜢⾜䛳䛯䚹ᮏ䝰䝕䝹䛻䛿䚸 Cohen, March, and Olsen䠄1972䠅䛻䜘䜛䝂䝭⟽䝰䝕䝹䛻ཧຍ⪅䛾ᚿྥ䠄㛗ᮇᚿྥ䞉▷ᮇᚿྥ䞉᭤ᚿྥ䠅䚸㛗ᮇ䞉 ▷ᮇ䛾ၥ㢟ゎỴ䝟䝍䞊䞁䜢᪂䛯䛻⤌䜏ධ䜜䚸䜘䜚⌧ᐇ䛻㏆䛔ពᛮỴᐃ䝰䝕䝹䜢ᵓ⠏䛧䛯䚹䛺䛚䚸䝰䝕䝹ᵓ⠏䛷 䛿㧗ᶫ䠄1993䠅䛻䜘䜛 Single Garbage Can Program䠄SGCP䠅䜢ᇶᮏ䛸䛧䛯䚹䝅䝭䝳䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁䛷䛿ཧຍ⪅䛾ྜ䚸ၥ 㢟㈇Ⲵ䜢ኚ᭦䛧䚸䛒䛔䜎䛔䛺≧ἣୗ䛷䛹䛾䜘䛖䛺ពᛮỴᐃ䛜䜒䛯䜙䛥䜜䜛䛛᳨ド䜢⾜䛳䛯䚹⤖ᯝ䛸䛧䛶䚸᭤ᚿ ྥ䛾ཧຍ⪅ྜ䛜ቑຍ䛩䜛䜋䛹▷ᮇⓗ䛺ពᛮỴᐃ䝍䜲䝥䛜ᨭ㓄ⓗ䛸䛺䜛䛣䛸䚸ၥ㢟㈇Ⲵ䛾ቑຍ䛻క䛔▷ᮇⓗ 䛺ពᛮỴᐃ䝍䜲䝥䛜ᨭ㓄ⓗ䛸䛺䜛䛣䛸䛜♧䛥䜜䛯䚹䛣䜜䜘䜚䚸⎔ቃ㈇Ⲵ䛾㧗䛔᮲௳ୗ䛷䛿䚸᭤ᚿྥ䜢᭷䛩䜛ཧ ຍ⪅䛾Ꮡᅾ䛜⤌⧊䛾ពᛮỴᐃ䜢㛗ᮇⓗ䛺ྜ⌮ᛶ䛛䜙㞳䛥䛫䜛䝥䝻䝉䝇䛜ᶍᨃ䛥䜜䛯䚹㸯㸬ࡣࡌࡵ
⌧௦♫ࡣࠊᴗࡸᅋయ➼ࡢከᵝ࡞⤌⧊࡛ᵓᡂࡉࢀࡿࠋே㛫ࡣ⤌⧊➼ࡢ㞟ᅋࢆ⤌ᡂࡋࠊಶࠎே࡛ࡣゎ Ỵࡢᅔ㞴࡞ㅖၥ㢟ࢆ」ᩘேࡢ༠ຊ࣭༠ാࡼࡾゎỴᑟࡃࡇ࡛ᩥ᫂ࢆⓎᒎࡉࡏ࡚ࡁࡓࠋ࡞ࡐ࡞ࡽࡤࠊ ே㛫ࡢㄆ▱⬟ຊࡸሗฎ⌮⬟ຊࡣ㝈⏺ࡀ࠶ࡾಶே࡛ゎỴྍ⬟࡞ၥ㢟ࡣ㝈ࡽࢀࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ Simon㸦1947㸧ࡣࠊಶேࡀᣢࡘㄆ▱⬟ຊࡢ㝈⏺㉳ᅉࡍࡿពᛮỴᐃࡢࠕ㝈ᐃྜ⌮ᛶࠖࢆ⤌⧊ࡢᏑᅾࡍ ࡿ᰿ᣐࡋ࡚⨨ࡅࡓ[1]ࠋ ᐇ㝿ࠕ㝈ᐃྜ⌮ᛶࠖࡢࡓࡵࠊಶேࡢពᛮỴᐃ࡛ࡣࠊỴᐃ⌮ㄽ࡛グ㏙ࡉ ࢀࡿࡼ࠺ពᛮỴᐃ㛵ಀࡍࡿࡍ࡚ࡢ㑅ᢥ⫥ࡽྛ㑅ᢥ⫥ࡢࡶࡓࡽࡍ⤖ᯝࢆ⢭ᰝࡋ᭱ࡶ㧗࠸ຠ⏝ࡢ 㑅ᢥ⫥ࢆ㑅ᢥࡍࡿࡇࡣ㠀ᖖᅔ㞴࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊே㛫ࡣ⤌⧊➼ࡢ㞟ᅋࡼࡿၥ㢟ゎỴࢆᚿྥࡍࡿ ࡀࠊSimon ௨ᚋࡢ◊✲ࡣࠊ⤌⧊ⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃࡶࡲࡓྜ⌮ᛶࡢ㝈⏺┤㠃ࡍࡿࡇࢆ᫂ࡽࡋ࡚࠸ࡗࡓࠋ Cohen, March, and Olsen㸦1972㸧ࡣ࠶࠸ࡲ࠸࡞≧ἣୗ࡛ࡢ⤌⧊ⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃࡀၥ㢟ゎỴ௨እࡢᖐ⤖࠶ ࡓࡿࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆࠕࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝ㸦Garbage Can Model㸧ࠖࡼࡗ࡚ゎ᫂ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ[2]ࠋᐇ㝿⤌⧊ࡢពᛮỴ ᐃࡣෆ㒊⎔ቃ࣭እ㒊⎔ቃࡢ࠶࠸ࡲ࠸ᛶࡽࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅࡿࠋෆ㒊⎔ቃ࡛ࡣࠊ㞠⏝ᙧែࡢኚࡼࡿ ேᮦࡢὶືᛶ࣭ከᵝࡢ㧗ࡲࡾࠊ⤌⧊࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡢ㑅ዲࡢ㐪࠸➼ࡽࡢཧຍ⪅ࡀࡢࡼ࠺࡞ุ᩿࡛ពᛮ Ỵᐃࢆ⾜࠺ࡢุ᩿ࡍࡿࡇࡣ㞴ࡋ࠸ࠋࡲࡓࠊእ㒊⎔ቃ࡛ࡣࠊAI࣭ICT ➼ࡢࣀ࣮࣋ࢩࣙࣥࡼࡿᢏ⾡ 㐍Ṍࠊࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝࡼࡿᴗ➇தࡢ⃭➼ࡼࡾࠊ〇ရࡸࢺࣞࣥࢻࡢ☜ᐇᛶࡣ㧗ࡃࠊ〇ရᡓ␎ࡸ㈍ ᡓ␎ࡀࡢࡼ࠺࡞⤖ᯝࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࡢᐇ⾜ࡍࡿࡲ࡛ࢃࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࢀࡺ࠼ࠊ࠶࠸ࡲ࠸ᛶࡀ⪃៖ࡉࢀࡓ ࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝࡣ⌧௦♫ࡢពᛮỴᐃࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆグ㏙ࡍࡿ᭷ຠ࡞ࣔࢹࣝࡋ࡚ᗈࡃ⏝ࡉࢀࡿࠋ ᪉ࠊ㏆ᖺࡢ⾜ື⤒῭Ꮫࡣಶேࡢᣢࡘ㝈ᐃྜ⌮ᛶࡢᴫᛕࢆⓎᒎࡉࡏࠊྜ⌮ᛶࡽࡢ㞳㸦ࣀ࣐ࣜ㸧 ࢆㄝ᫂ࡍࡿࡓࡵࡢᵝࠎ࡞⌮ㄽⓗᯟ⤌ࡳࢆᐃ⩏ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࡢ௦⾲ⓗ࡞⌮ㄽࡋ࡚Ainslie㸦1975㸧ࡢࠕ ᭤ᘬࠖࡀᣲࡆࡽࢀࡿ[3]ࠋ᭤ᘬࡣࠊᙜึࡣ㛗ᮇᚿྥ࡛࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢ▷ᮇⓗᑠࡉ࡞ຠ⏝ࡀ┠๓㏕ ࡿ▷ᮇᚿྥ࡞ࡾࠊ⾪ືⓗ▷ᮇⓗ࡞ຠ⏝ࢆ㑅ᢥࡋ࡚ࡋࡲ࠺㑅ዲࡢ㏫㌿⌧㇟㸦᭤ᚿྥ㸧ࢆᣦࡍࠋAinslie ࡣࠊே㛫ࡢ㛫ᘬ⋡ࡀ㛫౫Ꮡࡏࡎ୍ᐃࡢᣦᩘ㛵ᩘ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ㛫౫Ꮡࡋኚࡍࡿ᭤㛵ᩘ࡛࠶ ࡿࡓࡵࠊ㑅ዲࡢ㏫㌿⌧㇟ࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿㄝ᫂ࡍࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊ᭤ᘬ➼ࠊ⾜ື⤒῭Ꮫࡢ⌮ㄽࡣᇶᮏⓗಶ ேࡢ⾜ືⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࣀ࣐ࣜࡢㄝ᫂Ṇࡲࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡀ⤌⧊ⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࣉࣟࢭࢫ ࡸࠊࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࢇ᫂ࡽࡉࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋ࠼ࡤࠊ᭤ᘬࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ⤌⧊ⓗពᛮỴᐃ 㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡋ࡚ࠊᏳ⸨࣭Ọ⏣㸦㸧ࡼࡿຠ⏝ࡢຍ⟬ຠᯝࠊຠ⏝ࡢపῶᅉᏊ㛵ࡍࡿ⪃ᐹࡀ࠶ࡿࡀ ◊✲ࡣ㠀ᖖᑡ࡞࠸>@ࠋ ࡑࡇ࡛ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣࠊఏ⤫ⓗ࡞ࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝពᛮỴᐃཧຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥᛶ➼ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᨵⰋࣔࢹࣝࢆ㛤Ⓨ ࡋࠊಶேࡢᣢࡘ᭤ᚿྥ➼ࡀ⤌⧊ⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃࡸၥ㢟ゎỴࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࡢࢆᶍᨃࡍࡿࠋ 1 ࢹࣟࢺ ࢺ࣮࣐ࢶ ࢥࣥࢧࣝࢸࣥࢢྜྠ♫2E17.pdf :2
㸰㸬ࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝ
ࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝࡣࠊࠕ⤌⧊ࡉࢀࡓ↓ᨻᗓ≧ែࠖ࠾ࡅࡿ⤌⧊ෆࡢពᛮỴᐃࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆᥥࡃࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ࠶ ࡿࠋࠕ⤌⧊ࡉࢀࡓ↓ᨻᗓ≧ែࠖࡣࠊձၥ㢟ࡢ࠶ࡿ㑅ዲࠊղ᫂☜࡞ᢏ⾡ࠊճὶືⓗཧຍࡼࡗ࡚≉ ᚩ࡙ࡅࡽࢀࡓ⤌⧊ࢆ♧ࡍࠋᐇ㝿ࠊே㛫ࡢ㑅ዲࡣ᭤ᛶࡀ࠶ࡾࠊỴᐃ⌮ㄽࡢࡼ࠺࡞୍㈏ᛶࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡓࠊ ⌧௦♫࡛ࡣᢏ⾡ࡢ☜ᐇᛶࡀ㧗ࡃᴗࡣ⏕ࡁṧࡾᡓ␎ࡸ⏕⏘ᡓ␎ヨ⾜㘒ㄗࡍࡿࡀࠊ⤌⧊࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡀ ࡑࡢࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆ⌮ゎࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡣ㝈ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡉࡽࠊ⤌⧊࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡣ㛫ኚࡍࡿࡶពᛮỴᐃ௨ እࡢ㡿ᇦࡶὀពࢆᡶ࠺ࡓࡵࠊ⤖ᯝࡋ࡚⤌⧊ቃ⏺ࡣ☜ᐃࡘኚືࡍࡿࡇ࡞ࡿࠋ ࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝ࠾ࡅࡿ⤌⧊ⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃࢆグ㏙ࡍࡿせ⣲ࡣၥ㢟ࠊゎࠊཧຍ⪅ࠊ㑅ᢥᶵࡀ࠶ࡾࠊࡑ ࡢពᛮỴᐃࡣ㑅ᢥᶵཧຍ⪅ࠊゎࠊၥ㢟ࡀᢞධࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡛അ↛ᑟࡁฟࡉࢀࡿ⤖ᯝࡋ࡚グ㏙ࡉࢀ ࡿࠋྛせ⣲ࡣ௨ୗࡢࡼ࠺タᐃࡉࢀࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࡀ⾜ࢃࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊせ⣲ࡣ⊂❧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࢃ ࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࡀࠊྛせ⣲ࡣ⊂❧ࡘࠊ⤌⧊ࡗ࡚እ⏕ⓗ࡛࠶ࡿぢ࡞ࡍࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡉࢀࡿࠋ ձ ၥ㢟㸦problems㸧㸸ၥ㢟ࡣ⤌⧊ෆእࡢேࠎࡢὀពࢆᘬࡃᠱᛕ㡯࡛࠶ࡿࠋಶேࡢࣛࣇࢫࢱࣝࡸ ே㢮ࡢ༴ᶵ➼ࠊᖜᗈࡃᏑᅾࡍࡿࠋࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩ࡛ࣙࣥࡣᮍゎỴࡢၥ㢟ࡣ㑅ᢥᶵᢞධࡉࢀࠊ㑅 ᢥᶵෆࡢၥ㢟ᩘ㈇ⲴಀᩘࡼࡾỴᐃᚲせ࡞࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸦⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸧ࡀỴࡲࡿࠋ ղ ゎ㸦solutions㸧㸸ゎࡣၥ㢟㛵ಀ࡞ࡃㄡࡀ⏕ࡳฟࡋࡓࡶࡢࢆᣦࡍࠋゎࢆ▱ࡿࡲ࡛⤌⧊࡛ゎỴࡍ ࡁၥ㢟ࡀఱ࡛࠶ࡿࢃࡽ࡞࠸ࡇࡀከ࠸ࡉࢀࡿࠋࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩ࡛ࣙࣥࡣゎಀᩘࡼࡾཧຍ⪅ ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀࡾᘬࢀࠊ㑅ᢥᶵࢆゎỴࡍࡿ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸦⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸧ࡀỴࡲࡿࠋ ճ ཧຍ⪅㸦participants㸧㸸ཧຍ⪅ࡣᵝࠎ࡞㑅ᢥᶵฟධࡾࡍࡿࠋฟධࡾࡣࠊ㑅ᢥᶵࡢ≉ᛶ౫Ꮡ ࡍࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊཧຍ⪅ࡀࡢ㑅ᢥᶵ㛫ࢆࢃ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡇࡶ౫Ꮡࡍࡿࠋࢩ࣑ࣗࣞ ࣮ࢩ࡛ࣙࣥࡣཧຍ⪅ࡣ⮬㌟ࡢᣢࡘ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸦᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸧ࢆ㑅ᢥᶵᢞධࡍࡿࠋ մ 㑅ᢥᶵ㸦choice opportunities㸧㸸⤌⧊ࡀỴᐃࡿ⾜ືࢆ⏕ࡳฟࡍࡇࢆᮇᚅࡉࢀࡿᶵࢆᣦࡍࠋ ዎ⣙ࡢ⥾⤖ࠊᚑᴗဨࡢ㞠⏝࣭᪼㐍࣭ゎ㞠ࠊ㔠㖹ࡢᨭฟࠊ㈐௵ࡢศᢸࡀᶵ࠶ࡓࡿࠋࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞ ࢩ࡛ࣙࣥࡣ㑅ᢥᶵၥ㢟ࠊゎࠊཧຍ⪅ࡀᢞධ࣭㏥ฟࡍࡿࡇࡼࡾỴᐃࡀ࡞ࡉࢀࡿࠋ ࡇࡇ࡛㑅ᢥᶵࡀỴᐃࡍࡿࡓࡵࡣࠊཧຍ⪅ࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀၥ㢟ࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮➼ࡋࡃ ࡞ࡿࠊࡶࡋࡃࡣ㉸࠼ࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺ពᛮỴᐃࣔࢹࣝࢆᐃᘧࡋࠊࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࢆ⾜࠺ࠋ㸱㸬ᨵⰋࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝ
ᅇࡢヨࡳ࡛ࡣࠊ㧗ᶫ㸦1993㸧ࡢ BASIC ࡼࡿ Single Garbage Can Program㸦SGCP㸧ࢆᇶᮏࠊࡼࡾ ⌧ᐇ༶ࡋࡓࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࢆ⾜࠺[5]ࠋSGCP ࡛ࡣձ୍ࡘࡢ㑅ᢥᶵࡢࡳὀ┠ࡍࡿࡇࠊղཧຍ⪅ ࡢฟ⌧ࠊ㏥ฟࢆཧຍ⪅ࡽࡢࡑࢀࡒࢀṇࠊ㈇ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮࡛⾲ࡍࡇࠊճၥ㢟ࡢฟ⌧ࠊ㏥ฟࢆࡑࢀ ࡒࢀṇࠊ㈇ࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮࡛⾲ࡍࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊCohen ࡽࡢࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⡆␎ࡋࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙ ࣥࢆ⾜࠺ࠋࡋࡋࠊ⌧ᐇࡢពᛮỴᐃࡣࠊཧຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥࡀពᛮỴᐃᙳ㡪ࢆ࠼࠺ࡿࡇຍ࠼ࠊၥ㢟 ゎỴࡶ⌮ⓗ࡞㛗ᮇゎỴࡸ㏆ど║ⓗ࡞▷ᮇゎỴ➼ࡢゎỴࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡑࢀࡺ࠼ࠊ௨ୗࡢ࠾ࡾ SGCP ཧຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥࠊၥ㢟ゎỴࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࢆᵓ⠏ࡋࡓࠋ ࠙ཧຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥࠚ 㛗ᮇᚿྥ 㸸ᖖၥ㢟ゎỴ㛫ࢆせࡍࡿ㛗ᮇゎỴࢆᚿྥ ▷ᮇᚿྥ 㸸ᖖၥ㢟ゎỴ㛫ࢆࡅ࡞࠸▷ᮇゎỴࢆᚿྥ ᭤ᚿྥ 㸸㛗ᮇゎỴࢆᚿྥࡍࡿࡀ▷ᮇゎỴࡀ┠๓㏕ࡿ▷ᮇゎỴࢆᚿྥ ࠙ၥ㢟ゎỴࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࠚ 㛗ᮇゎỴ 㸸⌮ⓗ࡞ၥ㢟ゎỴࡀྍ⬟ࡔࡀ㛗ᮇ㛫ࡢྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳࢆせࡍၥ㢟ゎỴ ▷ᮇゎỴ 㸸⌮ⓗ࡞ၥ㢟ゎỴ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࡀ▷ᮇ㛫ࡢྲྀࡾ⤌ࡳ࡛῭ࡴၥ㢟ゎỴ ࡇࡇ࡛᭤ᚿྥ࡛ࡣࠊ㏻ᖖࡣ⮬㌟ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࢆၥ㢟ࡢ㛗ᮇゎỴ⏝ࡍࡿࡀࠊ⮬㌟ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝ ࢠ࣮࡛▷ᮇⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃࢆྍ⬟࡞ሙྜࠊ⮬㌟ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࢆၥ㢟ࡢ▷ᮇゎỴ⏝ࡍࡿࡼ࠺᮲௳ࢆ ⤌ࡳࠊ᭤ᛶࢆᶍᨃࡍࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊពᛮỴᐃࢱࣉࡣ㧗ᶫ㸦1993㸧ศ㢮ࡉࢀࡿ௨ୗࡢ 3 ࢱࣉࢆᇶᮏ ࡍࡿࡀࠊぢ㐣ࡈࡋ௨እࡣၥ㢟ゎỴࣃࢱ࣮ࣥ㸦㛗ᮇゎỴ࣭▷ᮇゎỴ㸧ྜࢃࡏࡓỴᐃࢱࣉࢆศูࡍࡿࠋ ձ ၥ㢟ゎỴࡼࡿỴᐃ㸦㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ㸧 㑅ᢥᶵ࡛ࡣཧຍ⪅ࡽ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀẖᮇᢞධࡉࢀࠊ㛗ᮇၥ㢟ゎỴࡶࡋࡃࡣ▷ᮇၥ㢟ゎỴࡢ࠸ࡎ ࢀᚲせ࡞࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀᢞධࡉࢀࡓࡇࡼࡾၥ㢟ࡀゎỴࡋỴᐃ⮳ࡿࠋ ղ ぢ㐣ࡈࡋࡼࡿỴᐃ ᪂ࡓ࡞㑅ᢥᶵࡀ⌧ࢀࡓ㝿ࠊࡑࡢ㑅ᢥᶵၥ㢟ࡀᢞධࡉࢀ࡞࠸࠺ࡕࠊཧຍ⪅ࡼࡾ᭷ຠ࢚ ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀᢞධࡉࢀỴᐃ⮳ࡿࠋ
ճ ࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋࡼࡿỴᐃ㸦㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ㸧 ၥ㢟ࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀࡁ࠸ࠊ㑅ᢥᶵၥ㢟ࡀᢞධࡉࢀࡓࡲࡲゎỴࡉࢀ࡞࠸≧ែࡀ⥆ࡃ ࡀࠊၥ㢟ࡀ㑅ᢥᶵࡽ㏥ฟࡍࡿ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀῶᑡࡋỴᐃ⮳ࡿࠋࡇࡢ࠺ࡕࠊၥ㢟ࡀ㏥ ฟࡋṧࡾࡢၥ㢟ࡀゎỴࡉࢀࡿሙྜࢆࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋゎỴࠊၥ㢟ࡢ㏥ฟࡢࡳࡀỴᐃࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍሙྜࢆࡸ ࡾ㐣ࡈࡋᨺ⨨ᐃ⩏ࡍࡿࠋ ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆ⾲1 ♧ࡍࠋᅇࡣࠊពᛮỴᐃᅇᩘ T=1,000ࠊゎಀᩘ SC=1ࠊ▷ᮇゎỴࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿ ࣝࢠ࣮ࡣ㛗ᮇゎỴࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡢ1/2 ࡋࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊၥ㢟㈇Ⲵࡣ௵ពࡢ㈇Ⲵಀᩘ LC ࡛Ỵᐃࡉࢀࡿࠋ ⾲1 ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࣉࣟࢭࢫ
㸲㸬ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥ⤖ᯝ⪃ᐹ
ࡣࡌࡵ㛗ᮇᚿྥ࣭▷ᮇᚿྥ࣭᭤ᚿྥࡢཧຍ⪅ࡢฟ⌧ྜࢆኚ᭦ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ⾲2 ♧ࡍࠋయഴྥ ࡋ࡚ࠊ᭤ᚿྥࡢྜࡀቑຍࡍࡿỴᐃ1 ᅇせࡋࡓᖹᆒᮇ㛫ࡣ㛗ᮇࡋࠊၥ㢟ゎỴ࡛ࡣ▷ᮇゎỴࡀ ᨭ㓄ⓗ࡞ࡿࡇࠊࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋ࡛ࡣ▷ᮇゎỴ࣭㛗ᮇᨺ⨨࣭▷ᮇᨺ⨨ࡣᴫࡡ୍ᐃ࡛࠶ࡿࡶࡢࡢ㛗ᮇゎỴࡀ ῶᑡࡍࡿࡇࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊ᭤ᚿྥࡢഴྥࡋ࡚ࠊၥ㢟ゎỴ࣭ࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋゎỴ࡛ࡣ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ពᛮ Ỵᐃࡼࡾࡶ▷ᮇⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃࡀᑟࢀࡸࡍ࠸ࡇࠊ≉ၥ㢟ゎỴ࡛ࡣ㛗ᮇゎỴࡀࡰ⾜ࢃࢀ࡞࠸ࡇࢆ ☜ㄆࡋࡓࠋࡇࢀࡣཧຍ⪅ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡼࡾࡶ▷ᮇゎỴࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀ㐣ᑡ࡞ࡿሙྜࡀከࡃࠊ ጞᮇ࠾࠸࡚༶ᗙၥ㢟ゎỴࡢ▷ᮇゎỴࡀ⾜ࢃࢀࡿࡓࡵ᥎ᐹࡉࢀࡿࠋ௨ୖࡽ⌧ᐇࡢពᛮỴᐃ࡛ࡶཧ ຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥࡀពᛮỴᐃᙳ㡪ࢆ࠼࠺ࡿࡇࠊ᭤ᚿྥࡢཧຍ⪅ࡣ▷ᮇⓗ࡞ၥ㢟ゎỴᤊࢃࢀࡸࡍࡃ㛗 ᮇⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃࢆ⾜࠸ࡃ࠸ࡇࡀ♧၀ࡉࢀࡿࠋ ḟ㛗ᮇᚿྥ࣭▷ᮇᚿྥ࣭᭤ᚿྥࡢཧຍ⪅ࡢฟ⌧ྜࢆ୍ᐃࡋၥ㢟ࡢ㈇Ⲵಀᩘࢆኚ᭦ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ ⾲3 ♧ࡍࠋయⓗ࡞ഴྥࡋ࡚ࠊ㈇Ⲵಀᩘࡀࡁࡃ࡞ࡿỴᐃ 1 ᅇせࡋࡓᖹᆒᮇ㛫ࡣ㛗ᮇࡋࠊၥ 㢟ゎỴࡢྜࡀῶᑡࡋࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋᨺ⨨ࡢྜࡀቑຍࡍࡿࡇࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓࠋၥ㢟ゎỴ࣭ࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋᨺ⨨࡛ No ࣉࣟࢭࢫ 1 ึᮇタᐃ ¾ ពᛮỴᐃᅇᩘ T=1000ࠊゎಀᩘ SC=1ࠊ㈇Ⲵಀᩘ LC=௵ព್タᐃ 2 㑅ᢥᶵࡢึᮇ ¾ ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮(㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ)=0ࠊ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮(㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ㸧=0 タᐃ 3 ၥ㢟ࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡢฎ⌮ ¾ ᢞධ࣭㏥ฟࡋࡓၥ㢟ࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮(㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ)ࢆ㑅ᢥᶵෆࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮(㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ)ຍῶ⟬ →㛗ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻(๓ᮇ)㛗ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸩ၥ㢟ࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮×LC →▷ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻(๓ᮇ)▷ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸩ၥ㢟ࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮×LC×1/2 4 ཧຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥࡢỴᐃ ¾ 㑅ᢥᶵධࡿཧຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥ(㛗ᮇᚿྥ࣭▷ᮇᚿྥ࣭᭤ᚿྥ)ࢆỴᐃ 5 ཧຍ⪅ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡢฎ⌮ ¾ ྛᮇ୍ᗘࠊཧຍ⪅ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࢆ㑅ᢥᶵෆࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮(㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ)ຍῶ⟬ →㛗ᮇᚿྥࡢሙྜ 㛗ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻(๓ᮇ)㛗ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸩᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ →▷ᮇᚿྥࡢሙྜ ▷ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻(๓ᮇ)▷ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸩᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ →᭤ᚿྥࡢሙྜࠊ௨ୗࡢ࠾ࡾሙྜࡼࡾ␗࡞ࡿ ձ ▷ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ 㸫 ▷ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ 㸼 ⮬㌟ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ → 㛗ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻(๓ᮇ)㛗ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸩᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ ղ ▷ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ 㸫 ▷ᮇゎỴࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ ӌ ⮬㌟ࡢ᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ → ▷ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻(๓ᮇ)▷ᮇࡢ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸩᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ 6 ពᛮỴᐃࡢฎ⌮ ¾ ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻0ࠊ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻0 ࡢሙྜࠊ㑅ᢥᶵၥ㢟ࡶཧຍ⪅ࡶ࡞ࡃ㸦2㸧 ¾ ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸼⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡢሙྜࠊᮇࡢゎỴࡣ࡛ࡁࡎḟᮇ㸦3㸧 ¾ ⥲ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸻0ࠊ⥲᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸼0 ࡢሙྜࠊぢ㐣ࡈࡋࡼࡿỴᐃ ¾ ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸺0ࠊᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮+᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸼0 ࡢሙྜࠊࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋゎỴ(㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ)ࡼࡿỴᐃ ¾ ᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸺0ࠊᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮+᭷ຠ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ӌ0 ࡢሙྜࠊࡸࡾ㐣ࡈࡋᨺ⨨(㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇ)ࡼࡿỴᐃ ¾ ୖグ௨እࡢሙྜࠊၥ㢟ゎỴࡼࡿỴᐃ2E17.pdf :4 ࡣࠊ㛗ᮇࡼࡾࡶ▷ᮇࡢỴᐃࢱࣉࡀᨭ㓄ⓗ࡞ࡿࡇࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞Ỵᐃࢱࣉ▷ᮇⓗ ࡞Ỵᐃࢱࣉࡢᩘ㸦ぢ㐣ࡈࡋࢆ㝖ࡃ㸧ࢆ☜ㄆࡍࡿࠊ㈇Ⲵಀᩘࡢቑࡶ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞Ỵᐃࢱࣉࡀῶ ᑡࡋࠊ▷ᮇⓗ࡞Ỵᐃࢱࣉࡀቑຍࡍࡿࡇࡀࢃࡗࡓ㸦LC=0.1 㛗ᮇ㸸▷ᮇ㸻231 ᅇ㸸426 ᅇࠊLC=1.0 㛗 ᮇ㸸▷ᮇ㸻189 ᅇ㸸469 ᅇ㸧ࠋࡇࡢ㝿ࠊ㛗ᮇⓗ࣭▷ᮇⓗ࡞Ỵᐃࢱࣉࡶၥ㢟ゎỴࡢྜࡀῶᑡࡋࡸࡾ 㐣ࡈࡋᨺ⨨ࡢྜࡀቑຍࡍࡿࠋ௨ୖࢆ㋃ࡲ࠼ࠊእ㒊⎔ቃ㈇Ⲵಀᩘࡢ㛵㐃ᛶࡽ⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠊ⤒῭≧ἣ ➼ࡢእ㒊⎔ቃࡀཝࡋ࠸ពᛮỴᐃಀࡿሗฎ⌮ࡢ㈇Ⲵࡀቑຍࡋࠊၥ㢟ࡢᚲせ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀቑࡍࡿ ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊ⌮ⓗ࡞ၥ㢟ゎỴࡢ㞴᫆ᗘࡀ㧗ࡲࡾࠊປຊᑡ࡞ࡃỴᐃྍ⬟࡞▷ᮇⓗ࡞ពᛮỴ ᐃࡀቑຍࡋࠊࡘၥ㢟ࡀ㑅ᢥᶵࡽ㏥ฟࡍࡿࡲ࡛Ỵᐃࡀᨺ⨨ࡉࢀࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗ࡲࡿࠋ ௗغࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ غࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ ௗغࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ غࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ ௗغࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ غࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ ࢂՅंׄ ʤʥ ෝ՛ ܐ਼ /& ݀ఈյ Ͷགྷͪ͢ ฑۋغؔ ݀ఈνϕ ୌմ݀ ݡգ͟͢ ΏΕգ͟͢ ௗغ غ ۄ ௗغմ݀ غմ݀ ௗغմ݀ غմ݀ ௗغ๎ غ๎ ⾲2 ཧຍ⪅ࡢฟ⌧ྜࢆኚࡉࡏࡓሙྜ ௗغࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ غࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ ௗغࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ غࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ ௗغࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ غࢧߡ ۄࢧߡ ࢂՅंׄ ʤʥ ෝ՛ ܐ਼ /& ݀ఈյ Ͷགྷͪ͢ ฑۋغؔ ݀ఈνϕ ୌմ݀ ݡգ͟͢ ΏΕգ͟͢ ௗغ غ ۄ ௗغմ݀ غմ݀ ௗغմ݀ غմ݀ ௗغ๎ غ๎ ⾲3 ㈇Ⲵಀᩘࢆኚࡉࡏࡓሙྜ
㸳㸬ࡲࡵ
ᮏ✏࡛ࡣࠊࢦ࣑⟽ࣔࢹࣝཧຍ⪅ࡢᚿྥࠊၥ㢟ゎỴࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࢆ⤌ࡳධࢀࠊ࠶࠸ࡲ࠸࡞≧ἣୗࡢ⤌⧊ⓗ ពᛮỴᐃ࡛ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ពᛮỴᐃࡀࡶࡓࡽࡉࢀࡿࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࠋ⤖ᯝ䛸䛧䛶䚸᭤ᚿྥ䛾ཧ ຍ⪅ྜ䛜ቑຍ䛩䜛䜋䛹▷ᮇⓗ䛺ពᛮỴᐃ䝍䜲䝥䛜ᨭ㓄ⓗ䛸䛺䜛䛣䛸䚸ၥ㢟㈇Ⲵ䛾ቑຍ䛻క䛔▷ᮇⓗ䛺ពᛮ Ỵᐃ䝍䜲䝥䛜ᨭ㓄ⓗ䛸䛺䜛䛣䛸䛜♧䛥䜜䛯䚹䛣䜜䜘䜚䚸⎔ቃ㈇Ⲵ䛾㧗䛔᮲௳ୗ䛷䛿䚸᭤ᚿྥ䜢᭷䛩䜛ཧຍ⪅䛾 Ꮡᅾ䛜⤌⧊䛾ពᛮỴᐃ䜢㛗ᮇⓗ䛺ྜ⌮ᛶ䛛䜙㞳䛥䛫䜛䝥䝻䝉䝇䛜ᶍᨃ䛥䜜䛯䚹㈇Ⲵಀᩘ䛿ၥ㢟䛾ᚲせ䜶䝛 䝹䜼䞊䛾ỴᐃᅉᏊ䛸䛧䛶ᐃ⩏䛥䜜䜛ಀᩘ䛷䛒䜚䚸እ㒊⎔ቃ䛻ಀ䜛ヲ⣽䛺㆟ㄽ䛿䛺䛔䛜䚸እ㒊⎔ቃ䛾ኚ䛜⤌⧊ 䛾ၥ㢟㈇Ⲵ䛻ᙳ㡪䜢ཬ䜌䛧䛖䜛䛣䛸䛿༑ศ䛻⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䚹ᚋ䚸㈇Ⲵಀᩘ䛻ຍ䛘䚸ཧຍ⪅䛾᭷ຠ䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䜢 䜚ᘬ䛟ゎಀᩘ䜒ྜ䜟䛫䛶㆟ㄽ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛷䚸እ㒊⎔ቃ䛸ෆ㒊⎔ቃ䛜ពᛮỴᐃཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࠋ⥅⥆ ࡋ࡚◊✲ࢆ㐍ࡵࠊ⤌⧊ⓗ࡞ពᛮỴᐃಀࡿࢲࢼ࣑ࢡࢫࡢゎ᫂㈉⊩ࡋࡓ࠸ࠋ ࣭ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩㹙1㹛H. A. Simon, Administrative Behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization, John Wiley & Sons㸦1947㸧
㹙2㹛M. D. Cohen, J. G. March and J. P. Olsen, A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice, Administrative
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㹙3㹛G. Ainslie, Specious reward: A behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control, Psychological
Bulletin, 82(4), 463-496㸦1975㸧
㹙4㹛Ᏻ⸨Ⰻ♸, Ọ⏣ஓ, ຍ⟬᭤ᆺᘬ㛵ᩘ⌮ㄽࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ⤌⧊ෆពᛮỴᐃࣉࣟࢭࢫࡢ୍⪃ᐹ, ࠗ◊✲࣭ ࣀ࣮࣋ࢩࣙࣥᏛ ᖺḟㅮ₇せ᪨㞟࠘, 32, 805-808㸦2017㸧