発電量の正規化に基づいた太陽光発電システムの異常検知手法の提案と評価

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(1)20. 24 1. [8]. 1.. 1. [1] 20. 10. [2] 10 10. [3][4][5][6]. [7]. 4. 6 1. 25%. 12.5%. 2. 2.1 ( (. ). (AIST). 20. [2]. ).

(2) ! 1. !. 3.. 3.1 3.1 (1). ( (. ). ). (3). 1 3 .2 [7][9] 3.2 [8]. 2.2. 2. ! ( ). " 1. " 1. Pa !. (2).

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(4) ( ). (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test)[11]. 1. 2013 n. (3.2. p. 5. (. 27. 7. ). 9. 0.4398. ). 4.2 4.2 n f(x ). 2. !. ! ! =. !"!!. !"# −. !−! !!!. !. !!⋯!!(!). ! = (! − !)! /!. 4.1 (z). !. 4.1 2. ! ! =. 1. !!. ! !". !"# −. !! !"!! ⋯!!(!) !. 1. 4.3 2. n. 4.2 (a). (b) [12]( 4 .3. 2013. 2. 1. 8. 19. (a) (b). (. Q-Q. (. ). ) 1. ±!" = ! ± !. 2. ±!" = ! ± !". 3. ±!" = ! ± !". ).

(5) 4 .3. 5.1 1. +1 96%. 68.3% -2. -3. +3. 5 .1. +2. 99.6%. 24 -1. 4. 1. 6. +1 69%. -1. +1. 1. 31%. 2. 6 15.5% 5.2 5 .2. 2. (a)(b). (a) 4 (b). 1. 25%. 1. 4. 12.5% (a)25% 25. (b)12.5%. 2013. 2013. 7. 4 10. 26. 5 8. 9. 4 .3 4.4 3. 5.1. 5.. 5.2 2013. 2. 1. 8. 19 2. 5.3 n 20. 30. 1. n 2. 10 3. 9.

(6) 5.3 .. n P(n,. ). 5.4 5.3. !(!, !) =. 5.3. + +. +. 3(. ). 5(. ). +. 5 .1. n n. 1. 3. 9. 15. 5.3. 5(. 1. 25% 25. 2013. 12.5%. 7. 4. 10. 26. 8. ) 5. 9. 0 3 3. 5 0. 3. 5 .2. n=10. n. 3 10. 2013 5 .1. 2. 13. 10 2 (4.4. 14. 2. 24. ). 5.5 5 .4 5.2. n=10. 5 (. 3. ROC Rate). ). ( [13]. ). ROC (True Positive. (False Positive Rate) 2013. 8. 19. 2 0.0. 14 1.0.

(7) AUC(ROC 1(100%). ). 5.4. 5.5. 0.5(50%). 25%. 12.5%. 1 0.5. ROC 1.05%. 100.00%. 31.47%. 99.47% 11.58%. 68.00%. 33.54% 48.08%. . 31.47% 10 27. 27. 0. 11. 5.5. ROC. 6.. 24 5.4. 1. ROC 25%. 12.5%. 5.6 5 .5 (. 1 ). (. 5.4. 5. 25%. 6 ). 12.5% 64.89%. ROC ROC. 98.43%. 5 .5 ROC 9. ROC 3.13%. 100.00%. 98.43%. 15. 1 1. 12.65% 48.08%. 64.89%. .. 5 33.54% 5.5. 5. 1. 4. 1. 6.

(8) 1. JST. [1]. , ( ),. :. http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/saiene/kaitori/2011kaitori.pdf. [2]. (. ),. pp.1-13. ,. ,. [3] 1 , Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 69-74(2007) [4]. ,. ,. , ,. 67(1). pp.18-21(2012) [5] 38(1),. pp.27-32,. (2012) [6] ,. /. , pp.461-464. (2012) [7] ,. D. , Vol. J96-D,. No.3(2013) [8]. ,. ,. ,. ,. , , DICOMO2013 pp.945-952(2013) [9]. ,. ,. ,. , ,. Vol.2011-OS-119, No.5, pp.1-8(2011) [10]. :http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/index.html. [11] Chakravarti, Laha, and Roy, Handbook of Methods of Applied Statistics, Volume I, John Wiley and Sons, pp. 392-394 (1967) [12]. ,. ,. pn. , [13]. p. 50(3), pp.139-148(1999) ,. ROC. , pp.111-130(2002). ,. ,.

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