Analysis on the Role of Energy Service
Companies (ESCO) Business on Energy Saving Activities
著者名(英) Yoshiki Ogawa
journal or
publication title
The economic review of Toyo University
volume 37
number 1
page range 27‑41
year 2011‑12
URL http://id.nii.ac.jp/1060/00001724/
Creative Commons : 表示 ‑ 非営利 ‑ 改変禁止
Analysis on the Role of Energy Service Companies（ESCO）
Business on Energy Saving Activities
Yoshiki Ogawa
Abstract
In this study， the role of energy service companies（ESCO）business on energy saving activities are analyzed from various kinds of viewpoints． First， we compared historical developments of ESCO business in Japan， USA and China． Second，
we surveyed various barriers of energy saving activities using past studies． Third， we developed simulation models fbr estimating benefits and costs ofenergy saving activities using three difTerent ways such as customer’s self－repair， guaranteed saving ESCO（GSC）and shared saving ESCO（SSC）． Finally， we compared calculated results and examined the role of ESCO business on future energy saving activities．
In conclusion， the shared saving ESCO（SSC）can play a certain ro］e in order to avoid several risks possible to hapPen and losses due to asymmetric information． In Asian countries． especially in China， it will play a quite important role to promote energy saving activities from now on． New systems such as emission trading scheme and CDM（clean development mechanism）as domestic version are now developing in Japan in order to cope with CO2 reductions in various sectors such as smalier businesses， oMces and homes． It is important to relate ESCO businesses to these newly developed systems．
Contents 1． Introduction
2． Comparison ofESCO activities in Japan， USA and China 3． Various barriers disturbing energy saving activities 4， Simulation results on ESCO activities
5， Concluding Remarks References
1． Introduction
The first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol already passed through the center year of 2010． The
． り
expansion of energy saving activities is one ofthe most important options for achieving Japan s Kyoto target
in the first commitment period． In this study， we would like to analyze the role of energy service companies
（ESCO）business on energy saving activities． We would like to pay our attention especially to how to avoid various barriers to disturb further energy saving activities by using ESCO business． In addition， we would like to discuss vari皿s issues to expand energy saving activities from now on．
First， we compared historical developments of ESCO business in Japan， USA and China． Second， we surveyed various barriers of energy saving activities using past studies． Third， we developed simulation models for estimating benefits and costs of energy saving activities using three different methods， that is，
customer own manage， guaranteed saving ESCO（GSC）and shared saving ESCO（SSC）． We made several
calculations of these three different methods under three different conditions such as non－risk（Casel），existing risks（Case 2）and existing risks＋asymmetric information（Case 3）．
Finally， we compared calculated results and examined the role of ESCO business on future energy saving activities and considered a relation between ESCO business and CDM（clean development mechanism）as domestic version． We also discussed key issues for the sake ofexpanding energy saving in Japan and Asian countrles．
2． Comparison of ESCO activities in Japan， USA and China
（1） ESCO Activities in Japan
The market size of ESCO activities in Japan was only US＄12 million in l 998， as shown in Fig」，and the share of ESCO activities was just 5。8％in the total energy saving investments（JAESCO［2008］）． However，
entering in 2000’s， the market size of ESCO activities had been rapidly increased and reached to US＄416 million， that is，64％share of total energy saving investments， as shown in the same figure． After then，
the market size of ESCO activities reached to US＄478 million， the highest level up to then， although it temporally decreased in 2004． The share of ESCO activities to total energy saving investments was maintained also at 64％in 2007．
The ESCO activities in l998， when the introduction of ESCO was started in Japan， was made by GSC（the guaranteed savings contract）for the almost l OO％part． However， the ESCO activities made by SSC（the shared savings contract）had been expanded since around 2002 and， in 2007， the share of SSC reached to 53％，while the share of GSC lowered to only 10％（JAESCO［2011］）。 The remaining share of 36％in 2007 was attributed to the ESP（the energy service provider：akind of large－size shared saving contract）and on site
generatlOn aCtlVltleS．
As mentioned above， though the market size of SSC and ESP／on site generation increased， the number of receiving order of GSC was lO8 and it was shared at 61％to the total number． The number of SSC was 54
whose share was 31％to total and the number ofESPIon site generation was 14whose share was 8％．
Judging from these facts， we can find the fbllowing special characteristics of recent ESCO activities in Japan that energy saving works with smalLsize investment was practiced by GSC in numbers， but those with large－size investment and long－tem contract was done by SSC． We can also find that ESP／on site generation with further large－size investment played an important role on the market expansion of ESCO activities in 2006and 2007．
The reasons why the market size of ESCO activities in 2007 reached to the highest level up to then were because the necessity of energy savings increased due to abnormal rise of crude oil price and that the necessity of energy saving repair works in the business sector were raised by the regulation reinforcement to business facilities through the revision ofthe Energy Conservation Law．
The specific feature of ESCO activities in Japan is that ESCO to private facilities such as industrial and business sectors has a large weight to totaL In the case of Japan， the share of ESCO activities for private facilities reached to gl％and it took near all． The share of ESCO activities f｛）r municipal facilities was 8．9％
and that ofnational facilities remained at just O．1％． lt is also one of special futures and a kind ofproblem in
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Fig．1 Changes in Market Size of ESCO Activities in Japan
Japan that the practices ofESCO activities in the public sector were limited．
The number of ESCO enterprises belonging to Japanese Association of ESCO was 16 in the beginning and reached to l 21 up to now．
（2） ESCO activities in USA
ESCO activities in USA was started in 1970’s which was the oil crises era and grew up faster than other countries． As a result of the introduction of the ESCO promotion system called ESPC（Energy Perf（）mance Service Contract）to the federal government facilities in 1986（Hopper， N et a1［2007D， the market size of ESCO activities in USA became to US＄150－300 million and had expanded with a high annual average growth rate ofaround 20％for 10 years up to 2000（Satchwell， A． et al［2010］）， as shown in Fig．2． Therefore，
the market size ofESCO activities in USA reached to US＄2，000 million in 2000．
For next four years from 2000 through 2004， the growth of ESCO activities was stagnated with a slower annual average growth rate of around 3％because of the bankmptcy of Enron in 2001 and the temporal lapse of EPSC（Energy Pertbrmance Service Contract）system in 2003， but it was recovered with a higher annua1
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Fig．2 Changes in Market Size of ESCO Activities in USA
average growth rate of around l 5％f（）r four years from 2004 through 2008 because the ESPC system was effectuated again up to 2016 in 2004． We can find that the ESCO activities in USA have been expanded because the basis ofESCO introduction to the public sector was established by the ESPC system．
In fact， the ESCO activities to facilities ofmunicipal governments and state universities was shared at 69％，
those to facilities of federal govemment at l 5％and those to public residential buildings at 3％in the total ESCO activities of USA in2008． Thus， total share ofESCO activities in the public sector reached to 870／o． On the other hand， the share of ESCO activities in bushiness／industry sector and private residential buildings was just 7％and 6％， respectively， in 2008． The share ofESCO activities to private facilities did not reach even to
l5％and this situation was quite different from that in Japan．
The number of ESCO enterprises belonging to NAESCO（the National Association of Energy Service Companies）member was 63 in 2000， reduced to 46 up to 2006， and is now 40（NAESCO［2011］）． Twelve ESCO enterprises which have the revenue of more than US＄100 million hold 88％of total ESCO activities in USA and we can say that the oligopoly of ESCO business is going ahead in USA． The ESCO activities in USA was made by GSC（the guaranteed savings contract）in the almost IOO°／o part after l996， while the ESCO activities made by SSC（the shared savings contract）showed a weight of about 25－300／o before then（Goldman，
C．A． et al．［2002p、
As mentioned above， we can say that the ESCO activities in USA have some specific features which are quite different from those in Japan．
（3） ESCO Activities in China
The China govemment started“China energy conservation promotion pr（）ject with World Bank and Global Environment Facilities（GEF）”in l 997． This pr（）j ect became a cue fbr the introduction of ESCO activities in China． In the first period ofthis pr（）j ect， three model ESCO enterprises（EMCI Energy Management Company）were established and the national energy conservation center was also organized in the same time．
As shown in Fig3， the market size of ESCO activities in China made by three large EMCs had increased 廿om US＄1．6 million in l997 to US＄2L4 nlillion in 2003 with a remarkably high annual average growth rate of 54％（EMCA［2004］）． In additlon， because ofthe loan guarantee system introduced by China govemment in the second term of this project started from 2002， the market size of ESCO activities have also expanded including the actMties of companies other than three EMCs， In飽ct， the market size of ESCO activities in China was US＄104 million（EMCA［2009］）and， therefbre， the share of ESCO activities made by three large EMCs was 20％in 2003．
EMCA（Energy Management Companies Association）started to gather data of energy savings investments
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1997 1998
1999 2000 20012002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008（Note）EMC：Energy management company
（Source）EMCA［2004］and EMCA［2009］
Fig．3 Changes in Market Size of ESCO Activities in Ch拍a
and make statistics of energy savings investments for whole China（EMCA［2004］）． According to EMCA statistics， the total energy savings investments of China in 2003 was US＄243 million and the market size of ESCO activities in China was US＄104 million． Thus， the share of ESCO activities was 43％of total energy SaVmgs lnVeStmentS．
For fbur years from 2003 through 2006， the market size ofESCO activities had expanded with high annual average growth rate of 32％and reached to US＄238 million in 2006． After then， for two years of 2007 and 2008，total energy saving investments had expanded dramatically and the market size of ESCO activities in China had also expanded with a quite remarkably high annual average growth rate of 161％．The market size ofESCO activity in China achieved to the highest level ofUS＄1，619 million in 2008， as shown in Fig．3．
At first， ESCO activities in China started by only three model EMC enterprises， but the number of ESCO enterprises reached to 59 in 2003 and then expanded to 454 in early 2011（EMCA［2011］）． Compared with the case of USA and Japan， the numerous number of quite smaller ESCO enterprises have entered into the energy savings market in China recently． This fact is one of specific features in ESCO activities in China．
In China， ESCO activities are mainly made by SSC（the shared savings contract）and the share of SSC reached to 70％oftotal ESCO activities（NEDO［2009］）． However， ESCO activities by GSC（the guaranteed savings contract）and the energy supPly outsourcing contract have gradually increased recently．
SSC is mainly adopted in energy savings works f（）r buildings and GSC is mainly used in energy saving
works fbr industrial factories（NEDO［2009］）． The energy supply outsourcing contract is largely adopted in energy saving works for commercial building facilities such as hospitals， hotels， supermarkets and so on．
To sum up， the ESCO market in China has grown steadily and the market basis required for the
development of ESCO business has prepared through the loan guarantee program and the increase of
participated ESCO enterprises． On the other hand， because there are so many enterprises which make efforts just to sales ofenergy saving equipments orjust to pr（）jects with short recovery years of investment， it is hard to say that true ESCO activities are already realized in China．3． Various barriers disturbing energy saving activities
In this study， we surveyed various barriers ofenergy saving activities using past studies（Kimura， S．［2009］，
Kobayashi M． and S． Kilnura［2008］and Murakoshi， C． et aL［2008］）． We would like to classi fy various barriers into three categories from the viewpoints of microeconomics， behavior theory and organization theory．
First， from the viewpoint ofmicroeconomics， we can list up the following seven barriers：（1）higher risk of investment recovery，（2）imperfect infor‘mation on energy saving potential，（3）sunk costs diMcult to estimate or easy to overlook，（4）individual peculiarity and variety，（5）diMculty in capital arrangements，（6）opposite selection due to asymmetric information and（7）inconsistency ofincentives among different players．
Second， from the viewpoint of behavior theory， we also can point out the fbllowing four barriers：（1）
partially ideal behavior due to limited perception and information，（2）force of habits and customs，（3）
credibility to options and（4）individual sense of values． Third， from the viewpoint of organization theory，
we can pick up the following two barriers：（1）structure of power in the organization and（2）culture diff；erent from individual organization．
In the next section， we would like to make a simulation analysis on costs and benefits of ESCO activities，
assuming the existence of several barriers mentioned above and would like to consider the role and meaning of ESCO activities．
4． Simulation results on ESCO activities
（D Assumed case conditions on base simulation
Assumed case conditions using in the base simulation are summarized in Table L We compared various energy saving activities made by customer’s self－repair， guaranteed saving ESCO（GSC）or shared saving ESCO（SSC）with different contract periods such as 3 years，5years，10years， and 15years． The longer contract period means the longer recovery time ofinvestment and the lower profitability．
In the case of customeゼs sel f－ re pair， the customer bears all of necessary costs and enjoys all of gaining profits． In the case ofguaranteed saving ESCO（GSC）， we assume for ESCO enterprise to cover maximum
Table l Assumed case conditions on base simulation of ESCO Activities
〈Contract period＞
3years，5years，10years， and l 5 years
The longer contract period means the longer recovery time of investment and the lower profitability
〈Type of energy saving activities＞
，
Customer’s self－repair， GSC and SSC
GSC：ESCO covers initial 5 years（maximum）， guarantee the performance and get 5％of ene「gy Savlng mOney
SSC：ESCO covers whole contract period， guarantee the accidents and the perf（）rmance and get 49％of total profit
〈Different conditions on trouble risks＞
Case l：Non－risk
Assumed no accident and no per飴㎜ance down Case 2：Existing risks
り
The same occurring probabilities shown below are assumed among customer s self－repair， GSC and SSC．
Shutdown by accident：assumed probability O．02％／year increment輪m 2％／year Performance 20％down：assumed probability O．05％／year increment廿om 5％／year Perfbrmance 50％downl assumed probability O．03％／ycar increment fセom 3％／year Base trouble probability：（2％＋5％＋3％）／year＝10％／year
Case 3：Existing risks＋Asymmetric infbrmation SSC：Probabilities are the same as Case 2。
GSC：Probabilities changes only in the covering period（max．5years）as shown below．
Shutdown by accident：assumed probability α03％／year increment from 3％／year Per飴㎜ance 20％down：assumed probability O．075％ノyear increment廿om 75％／year Perfc）mance 50％down：assumed probability O．045％／year increment倉om 4．5％／year Each probability and increment is L5 times as much as the corresponding one in SSC．
After then Probabilities changes are the same as customer’s self二repair．
り
Customer s self二repair
Shutdown by accident：assumed probability O．04％／year increment fTom 4％／year Per偽mance 20％down：assumed probability O」％／year increment from 10％／year Per負）rmance 50％down：assumed probability O．06％／year increment from 6％／year Each probability and increment is two times as much as the corresponding one in SSC．
5years丘om the beginning， to guarantee the performance of energy saving activities and to get 5％of energy savings money． In the case of shared saving ESCO（SSC）， we assume fbr ESCO enterprises to cover in whole contract interval， to guarantee both of the accident of facilities and the performance of energy saving activities and to get 49％oftotal profit．
We also assume three different conditions on trouble risks such as non－risk（Casel）， existing risks（Case 2）and existing risks＋asymmetric information（Case 3）． In Case l（non－risk）， we assume no accident and no performance change on energy saving facilities． In Case 2（existing risks）， we suppose the shutdown of energy savings facilities by accidents， and 20％and 50％pe両㎜ance down ofenergy saving血cilities．
In Case 2， the same occurring probabilities are assumed among customer’s self二repair， GSC and SSC． We adopt the initial value of 2％／year and the increment value of O．02％／year fbr the shutdown of energy saving 商cilities by accident， the initial value of5％／year and the increment value ofO．05％for the 20％performance down of energy saving facilities and the initial value of 3％／year and the increment value of O．03％／year fbr the 50％performance down ofenergy saving facilities． Theretbre， the base trouble po直ability is represented by the value of l O％ノyear which is the total of 2％／year for the shutdown，5％／year for the 20％performance down and 3％／year for the 50％perforrnance down．
In Case 3（existing risks＋asymmetric information）， we also suppose the same shutdown and the same two performance down ofenergy saving faci｜ities as Case 2， but the different occurring probabilities are assumed to customer’s self－repair， GSC and SSC， respectively， owing to asymmetric information． In the case ofSSC，
we adopt the same combination of occurring probabilities as the above－mentioned Case2， because the large and professional ESCO covers and guarantee the operation ofenergy saving facilities．
On the other hand， in the case ofGSC， each initial and increment value ofoccurring probability is assumed to be l 5 times as much as the corresponding one in the case of SSC， in the covering period， that is， the first 5years from the beginning of ESCO contract， because the smaller and less professional ESCO is in charge ofthe operation of energy saving facilities． After the covering period， we suppose the same occurring probabilities as the case ofcustomer’s self－repair as described nexL
In the case of customer’s self－repair， each initial and increment value of occurring probability is premised to be two times as much as the corresponding one in the case of SSC， because the unpro允ssional customer must cover the whole operation ofenergy saving白cilities．
（2） Typical example of profit changes year by year
The base simulation of energy saving activities was made by changing contract periods， types of energy saving activities and conditions on trouble risks discussed in the preceding session and the results on profit
changes in energy saving activities were obtained．
by year in the case of l O years contract period．
20，000 18，000 16，000 14，①00 12，000 10，000 8，000 6，000 4，000 2，000 0
20，000 18，000 16，000 14，000 12，000 10，000 8，000 6，000 4，000 2，000 0
20，000 18，000 16，000 14，①00 12，000 10，000 8，000 6，000 4，000 2，000 0
Figure 4 shows the typical example of profit changes year
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鰯 「 P肖，「’「ゴ．iヒc㌘liご竺／「る，： 聾：．．「 鐵三1－「亭巾 、乱 げx ’’ご’ヒゴ」、 妻 ，曇1ド 内 ．：・・ ● ．． ．．． ・ ・． ． ・． ．．・ ・「 ． 三’ド と ゴ《L ・：・ ・． ．・ ・・ ・・・．・；、三㌧饗○
・：
F・
E：F・ ◆≒蒙1ぞご三i、’
・：F・・：：・．ゾ・：：﹁1ゴ﹇げ ：・：・：・：・：．．． 「7」而「 ：・：・：・：・：≡≡ ；… ：・：・：・．・：三、ゴiぼ㌘1難」，「拳．
・：F・．・・三げ巾ゴ……蓬 ：・
E：ヂ：，
1 2 3 4 5
Customeピs selfrepair
6 7 8 9 10 1 62 3 4 5
fuaranteed saving ESCO
7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5
Sharedsav拍g ESCO
6 7 8 9 1①Fig．4’lypical example of profit changes year by year on different conditions
As shown in Fig．4， in the case of existing risks＋asymmetric inf（）rmation（Case 3）， the customer profit
り
decreases rapidly in customer s self二repair case and guaranteed saving ESCO case． Thus， the shared saving ESCO can play a certain role in order to avoid several risks possible to happen and losses due to asymmetric information， especially fbr the longer contract periods such as l O years and 15years．
（3） Annual pro血t changes by
In the next step ofthis analysis， we obtained annual average profit within contract period as a representative indicator fbr the comparison ofprofit． Figure 5 shows changes in annual average profit case by case．
As shown in Fig5， in the case of the shorter recovery intervals of investment such as 3 years and 5 years，
the profit difference among customer self－repair， GSC ESCO and SSC ESCO is significantly large． Therefbre，
SSC ESCO could not have advantage in shorter period． In the case of longer recovery intervals of investment such as l O years and l 5 years， the profitability of energy savings becomes lower and the profit difference among customer self－repair， GSC ESCO and SSC ESCO is not so large． ThereR）re， SSC ESCO can play an important role on energy savings activities in longer contract period．
（4） Simulation o皿changes in base trouble probability
In the base simulation discussed in the preceding three sections， we assumed the value of base trouble probability as 10％／year which consists of 3％／year for the shutdown，5％／year for the 20％performance down and 3％／year fbr the 50％perfbmlance down． In the final step ofthis analysis， we made a simulation by changing values of base trouble probability fbr two contract periods such as 10and 15years．
We also examined another simulation by assuming higher risk conditions due to asymmetric infbrmation．
We need to note that the expected ESCO profit ofGSC in Fig．6was calculated as annual average ofcovered 5years．
Figure 6 shows changes in annual average profit brought by changes in base trouble probability and higher risk conditions due to asymmetric infbrmation． If the value of base trouble probability is lower than 5％，
the expected customer profit of customer’s self repair or GSC is higher than that of SSC、 but ifthe value of base trouble probability is higher than l O％， the expected customer profit of customer’s self repair or GSC is rapidly lowered and the expected customer profit of SSC becomes comparable with the former two． In addition， lfthe value ofbase trouble probability is higher than l 3－14％， the expected customer profit of SSC
ハ
gains an advantage over that ofcustomer s selfrepair or GSC．
Ifthe value ofbase trouble probability is within lO－15％， the expected ESCO profit can keep a certain level，
but ifit is higher than l5％， the expected ESCO profit becomes smaller
P「ofit（1，000 Yen）
50，000 45，000 40．000 35，000 30，000 25今000 20，000 15，000 10，000 5，000 0
Case 1：Non－risk
S－
「epal「
GSC
3years
SSC ⑨一 の 「el〕a1「
ぽC
5years
Profit（1，000 Yen）
50，000 45，000 40，000 35，0eo 30，000 25，000 20，000 15，000 10，000 5，000 0
SSC
S－「epa］「
GSC
10years
SSC
S－ GSC SSCワ「elmu「
15years
Case2：E泊⑨ting risks
S－
「epal「
Profit（1，000・Yen）
50，000 1
GSC SSC S－
． 「epal「
3years
GSC SSC
5yearsS・
の「elva1「
GSC SSC
10yearsS一 ウ「epa）「
eSC
15years
SSC
Case3：EXisting risks＋Asymmetric information
45，000 40，000 35，000 30，000 25，000 20，000 15，000 10，000 5，0eo O
一
l I
ー 1
一一 s－一一一一一一
一一
j
ー1－一
‘
J－J．」
s－
．「epal「
GSC SSC S一
の 「el）al「
3years
aSC S⑨C 5years
S－
．「epal「
GSC SSC
10yearsS一 ぼ「epal「
．：こi：．：
量
GSC
15years
SSC
（Note）S－repair：customer’s self－repair， GSCi guaranteed saving contract， and SSC：shared saving contract Fig．5 Changes in annual average pro血t by contract period句contract type and trouble risks
Profit（1．000 YentYear）
00 ①0 0064
1
1
00000020 1 1 00 00 0086 00000042
0
0 0 0
”2
Seif」Repair 噛 ＼，
．G⑨C－Customer
＜
∨ SSC・CustomerBase riskch8nges by asymmetric information 10years
1＞
∈；≡亘：竺ご≡r．．／．
ド：二：竺鷲㌻二1二：ニー∴ご≒i
’”… ．．
げ一…………肖……〔：一……げ
：．撫コ3←・w▽：◆、
’”・・．．．
．．●■・．
’t”t…●・・．t
Pro価〔（1，000YentYear）
1600e
14000
12000
10000
ペベ、
ぷ1亡Re画「
Higher riSkcbsngesby as∀㎜tric inform2‘ion 10yesrs
0
・2000
：：：：1≧斑幾ミ：∫
4°°° ｼ竃＝ここ：二………一……’”’za iGSC岨・・ωm・r＼
pm・ロ－－ －ーり・－－り－－ー・ －・ －ーTtht… I SSC－Customer 、㌦
㌻・・．．．．．
…⊆巴≡窯、 ・・に▽1＞s
1合シ．
0 1 2 3 4 5
Profit（1，00e YenfYear）
0 0 0 2 1
00 0 0 1
00000096
0 0 0 4
00
0 20
00 0
一2
67891011‘2131415161フ181920
Base trouble probability（％｝
プ
鎧㌫1．
1 ∨〉
｝，SC。。st。m，， 〉
Base riskchanges by asv皿etric infer皿ation 15years
1－一一一1’：一”．r．：．r－．＿、㌫一．一．tt．．．－t．t．・∴で〉・
i ’香’…．． ～。、
1≧8二竺 』：：：ぎぺ三1
“㌧
0 1 2 3 4 5
Profit｛1，eoO YeD／Yesr｝
12000
10000
8000
600e
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920 Base lrouble probabi］ity（％）
i、巴1・R・p…
夜一．－t－・一 力 ’・…・t－t冊・一・一・t こ も
i iXL GSC－Customer 、 i 聰．
Higher riSkchangesby asymmetric in「ormation ISyears
㍗……1t…．〕…’…tt…as’・、
…
i SSC－。＿，『ペ
マ．吻
、。。。にえ畿～置二：籔色』＿．＿＿＿禽ぺ．．＿＿
ぺ●・・◆．’”
鞠㌔
1’’’’”・・・…．．．tL9，ESC・ぺ、、
…バー一一≡』べ；にべ：三
’”…ぷぷ ＋℃令℃ヒ・つ・…一ぴ．“r｝E、
O l 2 3 4 5
0
－2000
h．
N、
678910111213141S1617‘Bt920
Base trouble probability（％）
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ‘2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Base‘rouble probabititl’（％）
Fig．6 Changes in annual average profit brought by changes in base treuble probability
Also as shown in Fig．6， if we can assume higher risk changes due to asymmetric information compared with the base case， the expected customer profit of SSC gains an advantage over that ofcustomer’s self repair or GSC from the lower value of base trouble probability at 9－10％．
On the basis ofthese results， we can conclude that the shared saving ESCO business can play a certain role in the longe卜terrn and higher risk energy saving Pr（）j ects．
5． Concluding Remarks
We compared various energy sav▲ng activities made by customer’s self－repair， guaranteed saving ESCO or shared saving ESCO． In the case of existing risks ＋ anti－symmetric information（Case 3）， the customer profit
タ
decreases rapidly in customer s self－repair case and guaranteed saving ESCO case． Thus， the shared saving ESCO business can play a certain role in order to avoid several risks possible to hapPen and losses due to
aSymmetriC infOrmation．
In recent years， guaranteed saving ESCO business has become a main stream in the case ofUSA． Though shared saving ESCO business has been mainly developed up to now in』apan， guaranteed saving ESCO business w川be also reconsidered from now on in Japan， because the burden of shared saving ESCO is too large for the ESCO companies． On the other hand， in Asian countries， especially in China， shared saving ESCO business will play a quite important role to promote energy saving activities伽m now on．
In Japan， the government is now making new systems such as emission trading scheme（MENV［2011］），
CDM（clean development mechanism）as domestic version（METI［2011］）and so on in order to cope with CO2 reductions in various sectors such as smaller businesses， oMces and homes． It is important to relate ESCO businesses to these newly developed systems．
Thus， we conclude that ESCO business will be quite important f｛）r achieving energy saving activities and reducing CO2 emissions in Japan and Asian Countries． We also need to consider how to remove various barriers fc）r energy savings activities and how to promote ESCO business in Japan and Asian Countries，
especially in China．
References
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EMCA［2009］，“ESCO Survey 2009，”Energy Management Companies Association，2009．
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Goldman， C． A． et a1［2002］，“Market Trends in the U．S， ESCO Industry：Results from the NAESCO Database Project、”
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory， May 2002．
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JAESCO［2008］，“Results on ESCO Market Size Survey 2007，”Japanese Association of Energy Service Companies．
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コレ
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METI［2011］，“Domestic Credit System（Domestic Certification System for Reduction of GHGs Emissions），”Ministry of Economy， Trade and Industry， http：／fj cdm ．j p／case＿study／data／about＿20110812． pd f，（quoted on September 17，201D，
August 201L
Murakoshi， C． et aL［2008］，“Analysis on Special Characteristics of ESCO Business in Japan，”Construction Academy Environmental Papers， NO．624，2008．
“
tt
NAESCO［2011］， Member Company Snapshot， National Association of Energy Service Companies， http：〃www．naesco．
org／organizations／default．aspx（quoted on September l 7，2011）．
“
NEDO［2009］， Survey Report on Recent Movements of ESCO Business in India and Other Asian Countries and Business
Pt
Environments and Conditions， New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization and Jyukankyo Research Institute Inc，2009．
Satchwell， A． et al［2010］，“ASurvey of the U．S． ESCO Industry：Market Growth and Development from 2008 to 2011，”
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory， June 2010．
