経済学科志願者の数学的興味と学科名称プレミアム ― 地方文系私立大学における「経済」｢国際経済学」学科間選択行動の分析―

ܦࡁֶՊࢤئऀͷ਺ֶతڵຯͱֶՊ໊শϓϨϛΞϜ

—

஍ํจܥࢲཱେֶʹ͓͚Δʮܦࡁʯ

ʮࠃࡍܦࡁʯֶՊؒ

બ୒ߦಈͷ෼ੳ

—

ࢢ౦ ࿱

∗†‡ ੢ೆֶӃେֶܦࡁֶ෦ ֓ཁ ຊݚڀͰ͸ɼ஍ํࢲཱେֶͷҰൠೖࢼσʔλΛ༻͍ͯɼܦࡁֶ෦डݧ ੜͷֶՊબ୒ߦಈΛઆ໌͢Δ౷ܭతϞσϧΛߏங͠ɼܦࡁֶՊ͓Αͼࠃ ࡍܦࡁֶՊडݧੜͷɼڵຯɼಛ௃ɼࢤ๬ಈػ౳Λ໌Β͔ʹ͢Δ͜ͱͰɼ ͜Ε·Ͱֶੜͷҹ৅ʹج͖ͮٞ࿦͞Ε͖ͯͨΧϦΩϡϥϜฤ੒ʹ٬؍త ͳࢿྉΛఏࣔ͢Δ͜ͱΛ໨తͱ͢Δɽ۩ମతʹ͸ɼडݧੜͷܦࡁֶՊɾ ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊؒબ୒ߦಈΛ_ProbitϞσϧͰਪఆ͠ɼܦࡁֶՊʹ͸਺ֶ ʹڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͕ࢤئ͠ɼࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʹ͸ޠֶʢӳޠʣʹڵຯͷ͋ Δֶੜ͕ࢤئ͢Δͱ͍͏ԾઆͱɼࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʹ͸ʮࠃࡍʯ໊শϓϨϛ ΞϜ͕ଘࡏ͢Δͱ͍͏₂ͭͷԾઆΛݕূ͢Δɽਪఆͷ݁Ռɼ₁ͭ໨ͷԾ આ͸ࢧ࣋͞Εɼ₂ͭ໨ͷԾઆ͸غ٫͞Εͨɽͨͩ͠ೖखͰ͖Δσʔλͷ ੍໿্ɼ࢖༻͢ΔਪఆྔͷීวੑͱҰகੑ͸อূ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ɽ

∗_{Tel: 092-823-4430; Fax: 092-823-2506; E-mail address: shito@seinan-gu.ac.jp}

† ຊݚڀͷॳظͷ݁Ռ͸೔ຊԠ༻ܦࡁֶձ2017೥ळقେձͰใࠂ͞Εͨ΋ͷͰ͋Δɽֶձ Ͱ͸େࡕ෎ཱେֶͷࣛ໺ൟथࢯɼେࡕେֶͷ෱ॏݩ࢚ࢯɼ๺۝भࢢཱେֶͷڇ๪ٛ໌ࢯ͔ ΒوॏͳίϝϯτΛ௖͍ͨɽ͜͜ʹײँਃ্͛͠Δɽ࠷ऴߘ͸ͦΕҎ߱վగ͞Εͨ΋ͷͰ ͋Γɼຊ࿦จͷ࠷ऴ݁Ռʹ͍ͭͯͷ੹೚͸શͯஶऀʹ͋Δɽ ‡ ຊߘͷࣥචʹ͓͍ͯ੢ೆֶӃେֶೖࢼ՝͔Βಗ໊σʔλΛఏڙͯ͠௖͍ͨɽ͜͜ʹײँਃ ্͍͛ͨ͠ɽ

Keywords:

ֶՊબ୒ߦಈɼ਺ֶɼܦࡁֶΧϦΩϡϥϜɼ

Probit

JEL classification:

I20; C12; C35

1

͸͡Ίʹ

2014

೥

8

݄ʹ೔ຊֶज़ձ͔ٞΒʮେֶڭҭͷ෼໺ผ࣭อূͷͨΊͷڭҭ՝ ఔฤ੒্ͷࢀরج४ ܦࡁֶ෼໺ʯ͕ެද͞Εͨɽ͜ͷࢀরج४ͷ࡞੒ʹ͓͍ ͯ͸ɼॴҦओྲྀ೿ɾඇओྲྀ೿ͷҙݟରཱ͕͋ΓجૅՊ໨ͷબఆ͕ݟૹΒΕͨ͜ ͱ͸प஌ͷࣄ࣮Ͱ͋Δ

(

෱࢜

2014)

ɽ શࠃతʹେֶڭҭͷ࣭վળ͕ڣ͹ΕΔதɼචऀͷۈ຿͢Δ੢ೆֶӃେֶܦ ࡁֶ෦ʹ͓͍ͯ΋ɼφϯόϦϯά΍ίΞՊ໨ͷඞमԽʹ͍ͭͷٞ࿦͕Կ౓͔ ߦΘΕͨɽ͔͠͠ͳ͕Βɼͦͷ͍ͣΕ΋ݱ࣌఺Ͱ͸࣮ݱ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ɽ ܦࡁֶ͸จܥՊ໨Ͱ͋Γͳ͕Β਺ֶ΍౷ܭֶͷ஌ࣝΛඞཁͱ͠ɼཧܥͷΑ ͏ͳମܥతͳཧ࿦ج൫ͷ্ʹཱͭݚڀྖҬ͕͋ΔҰํɼ஍Ҭݚڀ΍੍౓෼ੳ Λओͱ͢ΔݚڀྖҬ΋ଘࡏ͢Δɽݚڀख๏ʹԠֶͯ͡ੜʹཁٻ͞ΕΔཤमཁ ͕݅ҟͳΔͨΊɼ౷Ұֶͨ͠෦ΧϦΩϡϥϜʹࢸΔ͜ͱ͸೉͍͠ɽ޾͍ɼஶऀ ͷۈ຿͢Δ੢ೆֶӃେֶܦࡁֶ෦Ͱ͸ɼલऀͷྖҬʹଐ͢ΔՊ໨͸ܦࡁֶՊ ʹଟ͘ɼޙऀʹଐ͢ΔՊ໨͸ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʹଟ͘ɼֶՊຖʹ͋Δఔ౓ͷ੗Έ෼ ͚͕ग़དྷ͍ͯΔɽ ΋ֶ͠ੜͷχʔζ΍ڵຯֶ͕Պͷಛ௃ͱҰக͍ͯ͠Ε͹ɼֶՊຖͷಛ௃Λ ׆͔ͨ͠ڭҭํ਑ΛܾΊΔ͜ͱ͕ՄೳͰ͋ΔɽҰํͰ΋ֶ͠ੜͷڵຯ΍χʔ ζʹֶՊຖͷࠩҟ͕ͳ͚Ε͹ɼܦࡁֶ෦શମͰ͋Δఔ౓౷Ұͨ͠جૅڭҭΛ ࢪ͠ɼਐڃͱڞʹڵຯʹԠͨ͡ίʔε෼͚Λߦ͏΂͖Ͱ͋Ζ͏ɽ౷Ұతͳج ૅڭҭʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɼ਺ֶ΍౷ܭֶ͔Βମܥతʹڭ͑Δ΂͖ͳͷ͔ɼͦΕͱ΋ จܥࢤ๬ͷֶੜʹ߹Θͤɼͦ͏ͨ͠Պ໨Λग़དྷΔ͚ͩճආͯ͠ڭ͑Δ΂͖͔ɼ ํ਑͕෼͔ΕΔͱ͜ΖͰ͋Ζ͏ɽ͜ΕΒ͸օɼֶੜͷಛੑ΍ڵຯʹԠܾͯ͡

ఆ͞ΕΔ΂͖໰୊Ͱ͋Δɽ ຊݚڀ͸੢ೆֶӃେֶܦࡁֶ෦ࢤئऀ͕Ͳͷ༷ͳֶ໰తڵຯʹج͍ͯܦࡁ ֶՊɾࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊΛબ୒͍ͯ͠Δͷ͔ɼ࣭తมྔϞσϧΛ༻͍ͯ౷ܭతʹ ໌͔ʹ͢Δ͜ͱͰɼֶ෦ͷํ޲ੑΛܾΊΔࡍʹ໾ཱͯΑ͏ͱ͍͏΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ ۩ମతʹ͸ɼܦࡁֶՊʹ͸਺ֶʹڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͕ࢤئ͠ɼࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʹ͸ ޠֶʢӳޠʣʹڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͕ࢤئ͢Δͱ͍͏ԾઆΛݕূ͢Δɽ਺ֶͱӳޠ ͷڵຯͷ౓߹͍ΛଌΔͨΊͷ୅ཧม਺ͱͯ͠ೖࢼ੒੷Λภࠩ஋Խͨ͠΋ͷΛ ࠾༻͢Δɽʮ޷͖ͦ͜෺ͷ্खͳΕʯͱ͍͏௨ΓɼͦͷՊ໨΁ͷڵຯ͸੒੷ͱ ֓Ͷਖ਼ͷ૬͕ؔ͋Δͱߟ͑ΒΕΔɽ͔͠͠୅ཧม਺ͷ࢖༻͸ڵຯͷେ͖͞Λ ଌΔ্ͰܭଌޡࠩΛ࢈Έ಺ੜੑͷ໰୊Λੜͤ͡͞Δɽೳྗ΍ڵຯͱ͍ͬͨந ৅తͳ֓೦ͷ਺஋σʔλͱͯ͠୅ཧม਺Λ࠾༻͢Δ৔߹ʹ͸ૢ࡞ม਺Λಋೖ ͯ͠ਪఆྔͷҰகੑΛ୲อ͢Δͷ͕ҰൠతͰ͋Δ͕ɼຊߘͰ࢖༻͢Δσʔλ ͷ৔߹ɼద੾ͳૢ࡞ม਺Λಋೖ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ࠔ೉Ͱ͋ΔͨΊɼਪఆྔͷීวੑͱ Ұகੑ͸୲อ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ɽ͜ͷ఺ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ୈ

4

અͰৄ͘͠࿦͡Δɽ ຊݚڀͰ͸ɼ೔ຊݻ༗ͷ໋໊τϨϯυͰ͋Δʮࠃࡍʯͱ͍͏໊Λףֶͨ͠Պ ͕ɼडݧੜΛັྃ͢Δͷʹ༗རʹಇ͔͘ɼଈͪʮࠃࡍʯ໊শϓϨϛΞϜ͕ଘࡏ ͢Δ͔ʹ͍ͭͯ΋ݕূ͢Δɽ੢ೆֶӃେֶܦࡁֶ෦͸ܦࡁֶՊͱࠃࡍܦࡁֶ Պʹ෼͔Ε͍ͯΔ͕ɼ

2016

೥·Ͱ͸ਐֶޙͷఏڙՊ໨ʹࠩ͸ઃ͚ͯ͜ͳ͔ͬ ͨɽଔۀཁ݅͸एׯҟͳΔ͕θϛ΋૬ޓ৐ΓೖΕՄೳͰ͋ΓɼͦΕΒ͸ઌഐ ΍ߴߍͷਐ࿏ࢦಋͰ΋஌ΒΕ͍ͯͨࣄ࣮Ͱ͋Δɽֶ྆Պͷ࣮࣭తͳࠩҟ͸໊ শͷΈͩͬͨͨΊɼ໊শϓϨϛΞϜͷݕূ͕ՄೳͱͳΔ1ɽ ຊߘͷߏ੒͸ҎԼͷ௨ΓͰ͋Δɽୈ

2

અͰઌߦݚڀΛ঺հ͢Δɽୈ

3

અͰ ࢖༻͢Δσʔλʹ͍ͭͯઆ໌͠ɼୈ

4

અͰਪఆϞσϧͱԾઆΛ໌Β͔ʹ͢Δɽ ୈ

5

અͰ೥౓ຖͷਪఆ݁ՌͱϓʔϧυσʔλΛ༻͍ͨ೥౓౷߹Ϟσϧͷ෼ੳ ݁ՌΛࣔ͢ɽୈ

6

અͰ·ͱΊΔɽ 1₂₀₁₇೥౓͔ΒɼॴଐֶՊͷڭһ͕։ߨ͢Δθϛ͔͠ཤमͰ͖ͳ͍Α͏ʹมߋ͞Εͨɽ

2

ઌߦݚڀͷαʔϕΠ

ֶՊબ୒ߦಈʹؔͯ͠͸ɼւ֎Λத৺ʹ༷ʑͳ؍఺͔Βݚڀ͕ߦΘΕ͍ͯ Δɽྫ͑͹ɼ

Arcidiancono (2004)

΍

Arcidiancono, Hotz and Kang (2012)

͸ɼ֤ઐ߈͔Βظ଴͞ΕΔকདྷ௞ۚͱɼֶҐऔಘͷίετʢ౤ೖೳྗ΍ֶඅʣ ͷόϥϯε͔Βɼֶੜ͕࠷దͳֶՊબ୒Λߦ͍ͬͯΔ͔൱͔Λݕূ͍ͯ͠Δɽ

Bradley (2012)

͸ɼܠؾ॥؀ͱֶՊબ୒ߦಈͷؔ܎͔Βɼظ଴௞ۚͱֶՊબ ୒ߦಈͷؔ܎Λ࣮ূతʹ෼ੳ͍ͯ͠Δɽ ظ଴௞ۚɼ΋͘͠͸ɼڵຯɾೳྗʹ஫໨ֶͨ͠Պબ୒ߦಈΛ෼ੳͨ͠ݚڀ ͸ɼଞʹ΋ଟ͘ଘࡏ͢Δ͕ɼ͍ͣΕ΋ର৅େֶͷશֶՊʹ͓͚Δબ୒ߦಈΛ෼ ੳର৅ͱ͍ͯ͠Δɽ͕ͨͬͯ͠ɼσʔλͰ͸ଊ͖͑Εͳ͍બ୒ಈػ͕ଘࡏ͢ ΔՄೳੑ͕ߴ͍ɽҰํɼຊݚڀͰ͸ɼಉ͡ܦࡁֶ෦಺ʹ͓͚ΔֶՊબ୒ߦಈʹ ݶఆ͍ͯ͠Δҝɼઐ߈ͷҧ͍͔Βੜ͡Δظ଴௞ۚʹՃ͑ɼڵຯʹ͓͍ͯ΋ɼཧ ܥɼจܥͷࠩҟΛߟྀ͢Δඞཁ͕ͳ͍ɽݶΒΕͨࠩҟ͔͠ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍͕Ώ͑ɼ ೔ຊݻ༗ͷ໋໊τϨϯυͰ͋Δʮࠃࡍʯͱ͍͏໊Λףֶͨ͠Պͱɼͦ͏Ͱͳ͍ ֶՊͱͷબ୒ߦಈʹ༩͑ΔӨڹΛ෼ੳ͢Δ͜ͱ͕ՄೳͱͳΔɽ ೔ຊͰ͸ٶా

(2015)

͕ɼจܥɼཧܥͷબ୒ߦಈͱֶ෦બ୒ߦಈͷ࣮ূ෼ੳ Λߦ͍ͬͯΔɽٶా͸ɼ਺ֶ΁ͷڵຯ͕ܦࡁֶ෦ͷબ୒ʹϓϥεʹ࡞༻͢Δ ͱ͍͏݁ՌΛಘ͍ͯΔ͕ɼઆ໌ม਺Ͱ͋Δʮ਺ֶʯ΍ʮਤܗʯ͸ɼطʹେֶڭ ҭΛड͚͍ͯΔେֶੜ΁ͷΞϯέʔτ͔Βߏஙͨ͠μϛʔม਺Ͱɼ಺ੜੑͷ ໰୊͕͋Δɽʮ਺ֶ͕޷͖ʯ΍ʮਤܗͷतۀ͕޷͖ͩͬͨʯͱճ౴͢Δֶੜ͕ ܦࡁֶ෦ʹݦஶʹଟ͍͜ͱΛࢦఠ͍ͯ͠Δ͕ɼطʹܦࡁֶͷษڧΛ࢝Ίֶͨ ੜ͸ɼάϥϑ΍ந৅తͳٞ࿦ʹ઀͓ͯ͠Γɼ͜ΕΒͷσʔλʹ͸ࣗݾબ୒όΠ ΞεͷՄೳੑ͕͋Δɽͭ·ΓɼܦࡁֶͷษڧΛ௨ͯ͠ҎલΑΓ΋਺ֶʹڵຯ ͕Θ͍ͨՄೳੑ͕͋Δɽ ຊߘͷϞσϧͰ͸ɼೖࢼ੒੷Λֶ໰తڵຯͷ୅ཧม਺ʹ࠾༻͍ͯ͠Δɽೖࢼ ͷஈ֊Ͱ͸ɼडݧੜ͸ܦࡁֶ͕ͲͷΑ͏ͳֶ໰͔ਖ਼֬ʹཧղ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͨΊɼ

ܦࡁֶ෦΁ͷࢤ͕͠਺ֶ΁ͷڵຯΛૡཱ͖ͯͨՄೳੑ͸௿͍ɽ͕ͨͬͯࣗ͠ ݾબ୒όΠΞεͷ໰୊΋ΫϦΞ͞ΕΔɽ

3

࢖༻͢Δσʔλ

ຊߘͰ࢖༻͢Δσʔλ͸ɼ

2000

೥͔Β

2016

೥·Ͱʹ੢ೆֶӃେֶͰ࣮ࢪ ͞ΕͨҰൠೖࢼσʔλ͔Βܦࡁֶ෦ࢤئऀͷΈΛநग़͠ɼҎԼʹઆ໌͢Δ఺ Ͱमਖ਼Λࢪͨ͠΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ࢖༻͢ΔσʔλΛ

2016

೥·Ͱʹݶఆ͍ͯ͠Δཧ ༝͸ɼ

2016

೥·Ͱ͸ڭҭ಺༰ʹֶՊؒͰ࣮࣭తͳࠩҟΛઃ͚͍ͯͳ͔͔ͬͨ ΒͰ͋Δɽ

2017

೥౓͔Β͸ֶՊຖʹॴଐͰ͖Δθϛ͕෼͚ΒΕͨɽ

2012

೥ʹೖࢼ੍౓͕มߋ͞ΕಉҰࢼݧ೔಺ͷซئ͕Մೳͱͳͬͨɽܦࡁֶ ՊͱࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊ͸ಉ͡೔ʹࢼݧ͕࣮ࢪ͞ΕΔͨΊɼ͜ͷ੍౓Λར༻ͨ͠ड ݧੜͷೖࢼσʔλʹ͸ɼશ͘ಉ͡΋ͷֶ͕྆Պʹαϯϓϧͱͯ͠ݱΕΔɽಉ ೔ซئͰ͸ɼ΋͏Ұํͷࢼݧ͸໌Β͔ʹʮ͍ͭͰʯडݧͰ͋Δ͔ΒɼୈҰࢤ๬ ֶՊ͕ܾΊΒΕΔ΋ͷʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɼҰํͷֶՊͷΈΛࢤ๬͍ͯ͠Δ΋ͷͱ͠ ͯѻ͍ɼ΋͏ҰํͷֶՊͷσʔλ͸αϯϓϧ͔ΒऔΓআ͍͍ͯΔɽಉҰࢼݧ ೔಺ซئऀͷୈҰࢤ๬ֶՊ͸ҎԼͷج४Ͱܾఆͨ͠ɽ

(1)

શ೔ఔɾશೖࢼํࣜʹ͓͍ͯग़ئ਺ͷଟ͍ํͷֶՊΛಉҰडݧ೔ͷୈҰ ࢤ๬ֶՊͱ͢Δɽ

(2) (1)

Ͱࢤ๬ֶՊ͕֬ఆ͠ͳ͍৔߹ɼೖֶۚΛೖֶۚͨ͠ՊΛୈҰࢤ๬ֶ Պͱͯ͠࠾༻͢Δɽ

(1)

ɼ

(2)

ͷ͍ͣΕͰ΋ܾ·Βͳ͍σʔλ͸ɼͦΕͧΕͷֶՊʹαϯϓϧͱͯ͠ ؚΊͨɽ·ͨɼಉҰਓ෺͕ҟͳΔ೔ఔͰडݧ͍ͯ͠Δσʔλʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɼͦΕ ͧΕผݸͷσʔλͱͯ͠ѻ͍αϯϓϧʹؚΊ͍ͯΔɽ ͜͏ͯ͠ߏஙͨ͠ඪຊ਺͸ද

1

ͷ௨ΓͰ͋Δɽ ຊߘͰ͸ɼֶੜͷֶ໰తڵຯͷ୅ཧม਺ͱͯ͠ೖࢼ੒੷Λ࢖༻͍ͯ͠Δɽೖ ࢼͷಘ఺͸֤೔ఔຖʹภࠩ஋Խ͍ͯ͠Δɽडݧੜ͸ඞਢՊ໨ͷࠃޠͱӳޠʹ

ද

1:

ඪຊ਺ 2000೥ 2001೥ 2002೥ 2003೥ 2004೥ 2005೥ 2006೥ ܦࡁ 1, 931 2, 217 2, 361 2, 429 2, 470 2, 318 2, 009 ࠃܦ 582 606 610 714 612 524 678 ߹ܭ 2_{, 513} 2_{, 823} 2_{, 971} 3_{, 143} 3_{, 082} 2_{, 842} 2_{, 687} 2007೥ 2008೥ 2009೥ 2010೥ 2011೥ 2012೥ 2013೥ ܦࡁ 2, 092 2, 353 2, 114 1, 857 1, 484 1, 529 1, 572 ࠃܦ 441 910 855 580 603 656 756 ߹ܭ 2, 533 3, 263 2, 969 2, 437 2, 087 2, 185 2, 328 2014೥ 2015೥ 2016೥ 2017೥ ܦࡁ 1, 473 1, 448 1, 813 1, 859 ࠃܦ 684 676 712 663 ߹ܭ 2, 157 2, 124 2, 525 2, 522 Ճ͑ɼબ୒Պ໨Λ

1

Պ໨डݧ͢Δɽબ୒͠ͳ͔ͬͨՊ໨ͷภࠩ஋͸

0

ʹઃఆ ͍ͯ͠Δɽ ࢲཱ͔͠डݧ͍ͯ͠ͳֶ͍ੜʹͱͬͯ͸ɼબ୒ͨ͠Պ໨Ҏ֎ͷબ୒Պ໨Λߴ ߍ

3

೥࣍ʹษڧͨ͠Մೳੑ͸ۃΊͯ௿͘ɼͦͷՊ໨΁ͷڵຯ΋ۃΊͯ௿͍ͱ ߟ͑ΒΕΔɽͦ͜ͰຊߘͰ͸ະબ୒Պ໨ͷภࠩ஋Λ

0

Ͱۙࣅ͢Δ͜ͱʹͨ͠ɽ ͕ͨͬͯ͠ະબ୒Պ໨ͷภࠩ஋σʔλʹ͸ଌఆޡؚ͕ࠩ·ΕΔ͜ͱʹͳΔɽ ࠃެཱΛซئ͍ͯ͠Δֶੜʹͱͬͯ͸બ୒ͨ͠Պ໨͕ɼબ୒Պ໨த΋ͬͱ ΋ಘҙͳՊ໨Ͱ͋Δ͸ͣͰ͋Δɽબ୒͠ͳ͔ͬͨՊ໨ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɼ΋ͬͱ΋ ಘҙͱ͸ݴ͑ͳ͍͕ɼษڧ͖ͯͨ͠Մೳੑ΋͋Γͦͷ෼໺΁ͷڵຯ͕શ͘ͳ ͍ͱ΋ݴ͑ͳ͍ɽ͜ͷ৔߹ɼબ୒͠ͳ͔ͬͨՊ໨ͷภࠩ஋Λ

0

ʹઃఆ͢Δ͜ ͱ͸ࢲཱडݧੜͷ৔߹ΑΓ΋େ͖ͳଌఆޡࠩΛؚΉՄೳੑ͕͋Δɽଌఆޡࠩ ʹ൐ͬͯੜ͡Δ౷ܭϞσϧͷ໰୊఺ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ୈ

4

અͰ࿦͡Δɽ ڝ૪཰૿෼ࠩ͸ɼִ೥ݱ৅ʹΑΔֶՊબ୒Λίϯτϩʔϧ͢ΔͨΊͷ΋ͷ Ͱɼ

_t

೥ͷܦࡁֶՊͷ࣮࣭ڝ૪ഒ཰Λ

_s

_E,tɼࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊͷͦΕΛ

_s

_K,tͱ͓

͘ͱɼ ڝ૪཰૿෼ࠩ_t

_{= (s}

_E,t

_{− s}

_E,t−1

)

− (s

_K,t

− s

_K,t−1

)

Ͱఆٛ͢Δɽલ೥ͱͷࠩΛऔΔͨΊɼ೥౓Λ౷߹ͨ͠ਪఆϞσϧ͸ɼ

2001

೥ ͔Β

2016

೥ͷ

16

೥ؒͷσʔλΛ༻͍͍ͯΔɽ೥౓౷߹Ϟσϧͷඪຊ਺͸

39, 333

Ͱ͋Δɽ ೖࢼ੍౓ͷมߋΛίϯτϩʔϧ͢ΔͨΊʹઃ͚ͨμϛʔม਺͸ҎԼͷ

5

ͭ Ͱ͋Δɽʢ

1

ʣ

2004

೥Ҏ߱Λ

1

ͱ͢Δ

F

೔ఔμϛʔɼʢ

2

ʣ

2005

೥Ҏ߱Λ

1

ͱ ͢ΔֶՊ৽ઃμϛʔ2ɼʢ

3

ʣ

2000–2007

೥ͷࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺࣮ࢪظ ؒΛ

1

ͱ͢Δӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺μϛʔɼʢ

4

ʣηϯλʔར༻ೖࢼʢલظʣ͕ಋೖ͞Ε ͨ

2007

೥Ҏ߱Λ

1

ͱ͢Δηϯλʔલظμϛʔ3ɼʢ

5

ʣ

A

೔ఔಉҰࢼݧ೔಺ซ ئ͕։࢝͞Εͨ

2012

೥Ҏ߱Λ

1

ͱ͢Δ

A

೔ఔซئμϛʔɽ ͜ͷଞʹɼஉੑΛ

1

ͱ͢Δੑผμϛʔͱɼଞֶ෦ซئμϛʔɼϦʔϚϯɾ γϣοΫʢ

2008

೥

9

݄ʣ௚ޙͷೖࢼμϛʔͱͯ͠

_Y2009

ͱɼ౦೔ຊେ਒ࡂ ʢ

2011

೥

3

݄ʣ௚ޙͷೖࢼμϛʔͱͯ͠

_Y2012

Λઃఆͨ͠ɽ ද

2

ʹ͸ຊߘͷ౷ܭϞσϧͰ࢖༻͢Δઆ໌ม਺ͷҰཡͱجຊ౷ܭྔΛܝ ͛ͨɽ

4

౷ܭϞσϧͱԾઆ

ຊઅͰ͸·ͣ࠷ॳʹֶՊબ୒ߦಈͷ౷ܭϞσϧͱͯ͠࠾༻͢Δ

Probit

Ϟσ ϧͷৄࡉΛ໌Β͔ʹ͢Δɽ࣍ʹɼ࠾༻͢Δσʔλͷ੍໿͔Βੜ͡Δਪఆྔͷ ໰୊఺ʹ͍ͭͯ࿦͡Δɽ࠷ޙʹɼਪఆ݁Ռ͔Βݕఆ͢ΔԾઆʹ͍ͭͯ໌Β͔ ʹ͢Δɽ 2₂₀₀₅೥ʹࠃࡍܦࡁֶઐ߈͔ΒࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʹมߋ 3₂₀₀₈೥ʹಋೖ͞Εͨซ༻ܕ͓Αͼηϯλʔར༻ೖࢼʢޙظʣͷμϛʔ͸ɽӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺μ ϛʔͱઢܗैଐతͳͷͰμϛʔ͸ͳ͍

ද

2:

࢖༻͢Δม਺ͱجຊ౷ܭྔ ࠷খ஋ தԝ஋ ฏۉ஋ ඪ४ภࠩ ࠷େ஋ உੑ 0 1 0.659 0.474 1 ࠃޠภࠩ஋ 0.273 50.080 49.994 9.998 84.540 ӳޠภࠩ஋ 10.055 49.350 49.968 10.007 90.193 ೔ຊ࢙Bภࠩ஋ 0 0 19.156 25.065 76.496 ੈք࢙Bภࠩ஋ 0 0 9.697 20.243 78.662 ੓࣏.ܦࡁภࠩ஋ 0 0 3.294 12.645 77.284 ஍ཧBภࠩ஋ 0 0 4.344 14.384 76.744 ਺ֶภࠩ஋ 0 0 13.469 22.781 80.376 ڝ૪཰૿෼ࠩ _{−1.429 −0.087 −0.084} 0.582 0.950 F೔ఔ 0 1 0.845 0.362 1 ֶՊ৽ઃ 0 1 0.766 0.423 1 ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ 0 0 0.439 0.496 1 ηϯλʔલظ 0 1 0.626 0.484 1 A೔ఔซئ 0 0 0.288 0.453 1 ࿘ਓ 0 0 0.204 0.403 1 จֶ෦ซئ 0 0 0.082 0.275 1 ঎ֶ෦ซئ 0 0 0.465 0.499 1 ๏ֶ෦ซئ 0 0 0.268 0.443 1 ਓؒՊֶ෦ซئ 0 0 0.115 0.320 1 ࠃࡍจԽֶ෦ซئ 0 0 0.053 0.225 1 Y2009 0 0 0.075 0.264 1 Y2012 0 0 0.056 0.229 1 ʮF೔ఔʯҎԼͷม਺͸શͯμϛʔม਺ɽ

4.1

౷ܭϞσϧ

डݧੜ͸ਐֶޙʹɼΑΓେ͖ͳޮ༻͕ظ଴͞ΕΔֶՊΛબ୒͢Δͱߟ͑Β ΕΔɽຊߘͷ෼ੳର৅͸ಉ͡ܦࡁֶ෦಺ͰͷֶՊબ୒Ͱ͋ΔͨΊɼब৬཰΍ ظ଴௞ۚͷࠩҟ͸΄ͱΜͲͳ͍ͱߟ͑ͯΑ͍ɽͦ͜Ͱडݧੜͷޮ༻͸ɼબ୒ ֶͨ͠Պ͔Βຬͨ͞ΕΔͰ͋Ζ͏ֶ໰తڵຯͱɼࢼݧ੍౓΍ֶ֤Պͷ೉қ౓

ʹԠֶͯ͡ՊΛબ୒͢Δͱߟ͑ΒΕΔɽ

ຊߘͷਪఆϞσϧ͸ɼडݧੜ

_i

ֶ͕Պ

_d

Λडݧ͠ਐֶͨ͠৔߹ʹظ଴͞ΕΔ

ޮ༻

_u

_di͕ҎԼͷ

linear random utility

ʹै͏ͱԾఆ͢Δɽ

u

di

=

x

di

γ

d

+ ε

di

(1)

ͨͩ͠ɼ

_x

_di ͸

_d

ֶՊͷೖࢼ੒੷ͷภࠩ஋ɼडݧੜଐੑμϛʔɼࢼݧ੍౓μ ϛʔɼଞֶ෦ซئμϛʔɼ೥౓μϛʔ͔ΒͳΔϕΫτϧͰɼ

γ

_d͸ະ஌ͷύϥ ϝʔλɼ

_ε

_di͸ϥϯμϜ߲Ͱ

ε

di

∼ N(0, σ

2d

)

(2)

ͱԾఆ͢Δɽडݧੜ

_i

͸

_u

_Ei

_{≥ u}

_KiͳΒܦࡁֶՊʢ

_{d = E}

ʣΛࢤ๬͠ɼͦ͏ Ͱͳ͚Ε͹ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʢ

_{d = K}

ʣΛࢤ๬͢Δɽ

_y

_i Λݸਓ

_i

͕ܦࡁֶՊΛࢤ ๬ͨ͠৔߹ʹ

1

ΛɼࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊΛࢤ๬ͨ͠৔߹ʹ

0

ΛͱΔόΠφϦม਺ͱ ͠ɼֶੜ

_i

͕ܦࡁֶՊΛࢤ๬͢Δ֬཰Λ

_P

_iɼࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊΛબ୒͢Δ֬཰Λ

1

− P

_iͱ͓͘ͱɼҎԼ͕੒ཱ͢Δɽ

P

i

= Pr[y

i

= 1] = Pr[u

Ei

≥ u

Ki

]

(3)

1

− P

_i

_{= Pr[y}

_i

_{= 0] = Pr[u}

_Ei

_{< u}

_Ki

]

ࠓɼ

_ε

_i

_{= ε}

_Ki

_{− ε}

_Eiͱఆٛ͢Δͱɼ

(2)

ΑΓ

_ε

_i

_{∼ N(0, σ}

2

_{= σ}

_E2

_{+ σ}

_K2

)

ʹै ͏ɽ

(3)

ࣜʹ

(1)

ࣜͱ

_ε

_iΛ୅ೖ͢ΔͱɼҎԼͷ

Probit model

ΛಘΔɽ

P

i

= Pr[ε

i

≤ x

i

γ] = Pr[ε

i

/σ ≤ x

i

γ/σ]

= Pr[z

i

≤ x

i

β] = F (x

i

β)

(4)

ͨͩ͠ɼ

_z

_iͱ

_β

͸ɼ

_z

_i

_{= ε}

_i

_{/σ ∼ N (0, 1)}

ɼ

_{β = γ/σ}

Ͱఆٛ͞Εɼ

_{F (·)}

͸ඪ ४ਖ਼ن෼෍ͷྦྷੵ෼෍ؔ਺Λද͢ɽ ֶ֤ੜͷબ୒֬཰෼෍͕ಠཱͰ͋ΔͳΒ͹ɼडݧੜͷֶՊબ୒ͷಉ࣌֬཰ ͸ɼ

_X

Λ

_x

_i

_{for all i}

ͷू߹ͱ͓͘ͱҎԼͰද͞Εɼ

Pr[Y

1

= y

1

, Y

2

= y

2

, · · · , Y

n

= y

n

|X] =



yi=0

(1

− F (x

_i

β))



yi=1

F (x

i

β)

໬౓ؔ਺͸ҎԼͰఆٛ͞ΕΔɽ

L(β|data) =

n



i=1

F (x

i

β)

yi

(1

− F (x

i

β))

1−yi

(5)

ຊߘͰ͸໬౓ؔ਺

(5)

͔ࣜΒಘΒΕΔύϥϝʔλ

_β

ͷ࠷໬ਪఆྔΛ༻͍Δɽ ຊߘͰ͸೥౓ຖʹߦͬͨਪఆ݁Ռͱϓʔϧυɾσʔλͷਪఆ݁ՌΛใࠂ͢ Δɽ೥౓ຖͷਪఆϞσϧʢ୯೥౓Ϟσϧʣͷઆ໌ม਺

_x

_i͸ද

7

ʢ࿦จ຤ඌʹ ܝࡌʣͷ௨ΓͰɼ֤Պ໨ͷภࠩ஋ͱμϛʔม਺ͱͯ͠ੑผͱ࿘ਓͷ༗ແΛՃ͑ ͍ͯΔɽ ϓʔϧυɾσʔλͷਪఆϞσϧʢ೥౓౷߹ϞσϧʣͰ࠾༻ͨ͠આ໌ม਺͸ද

4

ɾද

5

ͷ௨ΓͰɼ୯೥౓Ϟσϧͷઆ໌ม਺ʹՃ͑ɼࢼݧ੍౓΍ซئঢ়گɼ͞ Βʹ೥౓μϛʔ౳ΛՃ͍͑ͯΔɽ·ͨɼ

2000–2007

೥࣮ࢪͷࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊӳ ޠ܏ࣼ഑఺μϛʔͱͷަ߲ࠩ΋આ໌ม਺ʹՃ͍͑ͯΔɽ

4.2

౷ܭϞσϧͷ໰୊఺

ຊߘͰ͸डݧ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍બ୒Պ໨ͷภࠩ஋Λθϩʹઃఆ͠ɼະબ୒Պ໨΁ ͷڵຯ͸ແ͍΋ͷͱͯۙ͠ࣅ͍ͯ͠Δɽ͜ΕʹΑΓະडݧϨίʔυͷ౰֘Պ ໨ม਺ͷ܎਺ͷΈ͕Ϟσϧ͔ࣜΒυϩοϓ͢Δɽ͜Ε͸શϨίʔυͷม਺Λ

Omitt

͢ΔΘ͚Ͱ͸ͳ͍ͷͰܽམม਺όΠΞε

(omitted variable bias)

ͱ͸ ҟͳΔ͕ɼະडݧऀͷڵຯΛਖ਼֬ʹଌఆ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͱ͍͏ҙຯͰଌఆޡࠩΛ ሃΉͷͰϞσϧʹ಺ੜੑͷ໰୊͕ੜ͡Δɽ ͦ΋ͦ΋ɼೳྗ΍ڵຯͱ͍ͬͨந৅తͳର৅͸୅ཧม਺Ͱ͔͠ଌΔ͜ͱ͕Ͱ ͖ͣɼͦ͏࣮ͨ͠ূ෼ੳͰ͸ඞͣૢ࡞ม਺Λ༻͍ͯϞσϧΛվળ͢Δͷ͕ৗ Ͱ͋Δɽ͕ͨͬͯ͠ɼภࠩ஋Λθϩʹઃఆ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍৔߹Ͱ΋ૢ࡞ม਺Λ༻ ͍ͨਪఆ͕๬·ΕΔɽ͔͠͠ɼडݧ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍બ୒Պ໨ͷภࠩ஋͕θϩʹઃ ఆ͞Ε͍ͯΔ৔߹ɼͦΕΒϨίʔυͱ૬ؔ͢Δૢ࡞ม਺͸ଘࡏ͠ಘͳ͍ɽྫ ͑͹ɼશମͷ

3

ׂ͔͠डݧ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍Պ໨ͷ৔߹ɼૢ࡞ม਺͸શϨίʔυͷ

7

ׂͱ૬ؔ͸ແ͍༁Ͱɼ͜͏ͨ͠ૢ࡞ม਺͕ͲΕ͚ͩਪఆྔΛվળ͢Δ͔͸ະ ஌Ͱ͋Δɽ͕ͨͬͯ͠ɼ͜͜Ͱ͸ଌఆޡࠩΛड͚ೖΕɼ୅ΘΓʹਪఆྔͷෆภ

ੑͱҰகੑΛ٘ਜ਼ʹ͢Δ͜ͱΛબ୒͢Δɽຊߘͷਪఆ݁ՌͷධՁʹࡍͯ͠͸ɼ ͦΕΒͷ໰୊఺Λ౿·্͑ͨͰۛຯ͞Ε͍ͨɽ ະબ୒Պ໨ͷθϩۙࣅΛճආ͢Δํ๏ͱͯ͠ɼશબ୒Պ໨ͷภࠩ஋Λʮબ୒ Պ໨ʯͱ͍͏

1

ม਺ʹ·ͱΊɼ֤બ୒Պ໨ͷडݧ༗ແΛอ࣋͢ΔμϛʔΛ܎ ਺μϛʔͱͯ͠༻͍ͯબ୒Պ໨ຖͷޮՌΛநग़͢Δํ๏͕ߟ͑ΒΕΔɽ͔͠ ͠ɼ͜ͷ৔߹ɼʮબ୒Պ໨ʯม਺ͷ܎਺͸ʮࠃޠͱӳޠҎ֎ͷೳྗʢ΋͘͠͸ ڵຯʣʯΛද͢΋ͷͰɼͦͷΑ͏ͳେ·͔ͳ͘͘ΓͰֶՊબ୒Λܾఆ͍ͯ͠Δ ͱ͸౸ఈߟ͑ΒΕͳ͍ɽ͜ͷํ๏͸ͦ΋ͦ΋ͷֶՊબ୒ϞσϧͷҙຯΛม͑ ͯ͠·͏্ɼ࣮ࡍʹਪఆͯ͠΋શ͘༗ҙͳ܎਺͸ಘΒΕͳ͔ͬͨɽ͕ͨͬ͠ ͯɼຊߘͰ͸ະडݧՊ໨ͷڵຯΛʮແ͠ʯͰۙࣅ͢Δ͜ͱΛ࠾༻͠ɼීวੑͱ ҰகੑΛ٘ਜ਼ʹ͢Δ͜ͱΛબ୒ͨ͠ɽ Ҏ্ɼຊݚڀͷख๏ʹؔͯ͠ݫཱ͍͠৔Ͱٞ࿦͖͕ͯͨ͠ɼຊݚڀ੒ՌΛ༴ ޢ͢Δཱ৔͔Β΋ٞ࿦ͯ͠Έ͍ͨɽͦ΋ͦ΋ਪఆྔͷ޷·͍͠ੑ࣭ʢීวੑ΍ Ұகੑ౳ʣ͸શͯɼ౷ܭϞσϧ͕σʔλੜ੒աఔͱͯ͠ਖ਼͚͠Ε͹ͱ͍͏৚݅ ෇͖Ͱ͋ΔɽҰൠʹߦΘΕ͍ͯΔύϥϝτϦοΫͳܭྔܦࡁ෼ੳͰ࠾༻͞Ε ͍ͯΔਪఆࣜʢ΄ͱΜͲ͕ઢܗ͔Α͘஌ΒΕͨඇઢܗࣜʣ͕Ռͨͯ͠ਅͷϞσ ϧ͔ͱ͍͑͹ɼ͜Ε΋ۙࣅతͳ΋ͷʹա͗ͳ͍ɽ͕ͨͬͯ͠ɼܭྔ෼ੳͷख๏ ͕ຬͨ͢΂͖ԾఆͷͲ͜ʹݫ͍͠໨Λ޲͚Δ͔ͷҧ͍Ͱ͋Δͱߟ͑Ε͹ɼຊ ߘͷۙࣅʹΑΔਪఆ݁Ռ΋ҙຯͷͳ͍΋ͷʹ͸ͳΒͳ͍ͱஶऀ͸ߟ͍͑ͯΔɽ

4.3

Ծઆ

ຊߘͰ͸ɼओʹ

2

ͭͷԾઆɼ

1.

਺ֶʹڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͸ܦࡁֶՊΛࢤ๬͠ɼ ޠֶʢӳޠʣʹڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͸ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊΛࢤ๬͢Δ܏޲͕͋Δɼ

2.

ʮࠃ ࡍʯ໊শϓϨϛΞϜ͕ଘࡏ͢Δɼʹ͍ͭͯٞ࿦͢Δɽೖࢼ੒੷Λ౰֘Պ໨΁ͷ ڵຯΛଌΔ୅ཧม਺ͱͯ͠࠾༻͢Δ͜ͱʹҧ࿨ײ͕͋Δ৔߹͸ɼ

1

ͭ໨ͷԾઆ ͷʮڵຯͷ͋ΔֶੜʯΛʮಘҙͳֶੜʯʹஔ͖׵͑ͯղऍ͢Ε͹ྑ͍ɽ

2

ͭ໨ͷԾઆ͸ɼ

Probit

Ϟσϧͷఆ਺߲͕ෛͰ༗ҙ͔൱͔Ͱݕఆ͢Δɽ੢ ೆֶӃେֶͷܦࡁֶ෦Ͱ͸ɼ

2016

೥·Ͱ

2

ͭͷֶՊͰڭҭ্ͷࠩผԽ͸ߦΘ

Εͯ͜ͳ͔ͬͨɽθϛ΋૬ޓʹ৐ΓೖΕՄೳͰɼֶ྆Պͷ࣮࣭తͳࠩ͸໊শ Ҏ֎ʹ͸ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍ɽ͕ͨͬͯ͠ɼֶ໰తڵຯ΍೥౓ݻ༗ͷӨڹΛഉআͯ͠ ΋·ͩఆ਺߲͕ෛͰ༗ҙͱͳΔͳΒɼֶՊ໊শͷҧ͍͔Βड͚Δҹ৅Ͱࢤئ ऀ͕ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊدΓͷબ୒Λߦ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱʹͳΔɽ ࣭తมྔϞσϧͷఆ਺߲ʹΠϯϓϦέʔγϣϯΛ༩͑ͨݚڀ͸͋·ΓྫΛ ݟͳ͍͕ɼڭՊॻϨϕϧͰ͸ఆ਺߲Λબ୒όΠΞεͱղऍ͍ͯ͠Δ΋ͷ΋͋ Δ

(Griffiths, Hill and Judge 1993, p.745)

ɽ

5

ਪఆ݁Ռͱߟ࡯

·ͣ୯೥౓ຖʹਪఆΛߦ͍ɼֶ໰తڵຯͱֶՊબ୒֬཰ͷؔ܎ΛݟΔɽ୯೥ ౓Ϟσϧͷఆ਺߲ʹ͸ɼܠؾมಈ΍ࣾձ৘੎ɼೖࢼ੍౓ͷมߋ౳ɼ೥౓ݻ༗ͷ Өڹؚ͕·ΕΔͨΊɼఆ਺߲Λ༻͍ͨʮࠃࡍʯ໊শϓϨϛΞϜͷݕఆ͸ɼϓʔ ϧυɾσʔλΛ༻͍ͯ೥౓ݻ༗ͷཁҼΛίϯτϩʔϧ্ͨ͠Ͱߦ͏ɽ

5.1

୯೥౓Ϟσϧ

୯೥౓σʔλ͔Βਪఆͨ݁͠ՌΛɼද

7–

ද

10

ʢ࿦จ຤ඌʹܝࡌʣʹ·ͱΊ ͨɽ୯೥౓Ϟσϧʹ͸೥౓ݻ༗ͷμϛʔ͕ͳ͍ͨΊɼઆ໌ม਺͸ೖࢼ

7

ڭՊ ͷภࠩ஋ͱɼडݧੜͷଐੑΛࣔ͢உੑɾ࿘ਓμϛʔͷΈͰ͋Δɽ

2007

೥Ҏલ͸શͯͷڭՊͰ܎਺ͷූ߸͕༗ҙͰ֬ఆ͢Δɽ

2008

೥Ҏ߱͸

2012

೥Λআ͖ɼӳޠͱ਺ֶͷΈ͕Ұ؏ͯ͠༗ҙͰ͋Δɽ

2012

೥ͷӳޠΛআ͖ શͯͷ೥Ͱɼӳޠ͸ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰ʹɼ਺ֶ͸ܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰ʹ ͦΕͧΕϓϥεʹ࡞༻͍ͯ͠Δɽ

ද

3

͸ӳޠภࠩ஋ͱ਺ֶภࠩ஋ͷ

Average Partial Effects

ʢ

APE

ʣΛ·ͱ Ίͨ΋ͷͰɼਤ

1

͸ɼඪຊͷฏۉͰධՁͨ͠

Marginal Effects

ʢ

ME

ʣͱ

APE

ͷਪҠΛάϥϑʹࣔͨ͠΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ

·ͣɼӳޠͷ

ME

ͱ

APE

ͷਪҠΛݟͯΈΑ͏ʢਤ

1

ࠨʣɽࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊ

ද

3:

୯೥౓Ϟσϧʹ͓͚Δӳޠภࠩ஋ͱ਺ֶภࠩ஋ͷ

Average Partial

Effects (%)

2000೥ 2001೥ 2002೥ 2003೥ 2004೥ 2005೥ ӳޠ _−2.143∗∗∗ _−1.939∗∗∗ _−1.887∗∗∗ _−2.168∗∗∗ _−2.029∗∗∗ _−1.787∗∗∗ (0_.157) (0_.149) (0_.148) (0_.144) (0_.133) (0_.210) ਺ֶ 0_.632∗∗∗ 0_.409∗∗∗ 0_.559∗∗∗ 0_.586∗∗∗ 0_.507∗∗∗ 0_.375∗∗∗ (0.066) (0.053) (0.058) (0.059) (0.058) (0.060) 2006೥ 2007೥ 2008೥ 2009೥ 2010೥ 2011೥ ӳޠ _−2.379∗∗∗ _−1.819∗∗∗ _−0.441∗∗∗ _−0.567∗∗∗ _−0.312∗∗∗ _−0.586∗∗∗ (0.114) (0.188) (0.089) (0.095) (0.096) (0.113) ਺ֶ 0.691∗∗∗ 0.625∗∗∗ 0.519∗∗∗ 0.425∗∗∗ 0.395∗∗∗ 0.333∗∗∗ (0.064) (0.077) (0.089) (0.096) (0.099) (0.109) 2012೥ 2013೥ 2014೥ 2015೥ 2016೥ 2017೥ ӳޠ _{−0.114 −0.415}∗∗∗ _−0.302∗∗∗ _−0.284∗∗∗ _−0.493∗∗∗ _−0.462∗∗∗ (0.107) (0.107) (0.112) (0.108) (0.100) (0.099) ਺ֶ 0_.391∗∗∗ 0_.324∗∗∗ 0_.435∗∗∗ 0_.404∗∗∗ 0_.300∗∗∗ 0_.319∗∗∗ (0_.112) (0_.109) (0_.116) (0_.111) (0_.101) (0_.102) දࣔͷ༗ޮܻ਺Λ૿΍ͨ͢Ί஋Λ100ഒ͠୯ҐΛ%ʹ͍ͯ͠Δɽׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ∗p<0.1; ∗∗_p<0.05;∗∗∗_p<0.01 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 年 英語偏差値が経済学科選択確率に及ぼす影響（¥%）

Average Partial Effects Marginal Effects 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 年 数学偏差値が経済学科選択確率に及ぼす影響（¥%）

Average Partial Effects Marginal Effects

2007

೥Λڥʹ

APE

ͱ

ME

ͷਪҠ͕ݦஶʹมԽ͍ͯ͠Δɽ܏ࣼ഑఺࣮ࢪظؒ த͸ӳޠͷภࠩ஋͕

1

ϙΠϯτ૿Ճ͢ΔͱࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰͕໿

2%

্ঢ͍ͯͨ͠ͷʹର͠ɼۙ೥͸໿

0.5%

ͷ্ঢͰਪҠ͍ͯ͠Δɽ Ұํɼ਺ֶͷ

APE

ʢਤ

1

ӈʣ͸

2007

೥Λڥʹͨ͠τϨϯυมԽ͸ݟΒΕ ͳ͍͕ɼ

APE

ͱ

ME

ͷဃ཭͕

2007

೥ΛڥʹมԽ͍ͯ͠ΔͷͰɼ਺ֶʹڵຯ ͷ͋ΔֶੜͷֶՊબ୒ߦಈʹ΋ӳޠͷ܏ࣼ഑఺͕एׯͷӨڹΛ༩͑ͨ͜ͱ͕ ࢕͑Δɽ਺ֶ͸ӳޠͱ͸ٯʹܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰ʹϓϥεʹ࡞༻͍ͯ͠Δ͕ɼ ͦͷେ͖͞͸ӳޠಉ༷ɼ໿

0.5%

पลͰਪҠ͍ͯ͠Δɽ

0.5%

ͱ͍͏ඍখͳ֬཰Ͱ͸͋Δ͕ɼ

1

ͭ໨ͷԾઆɼ͢ͳΘͪɼ਺ֶ΁ͷڵ ຯ͸ܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒ʹɼޠֶʢӳޠʣ΁ͷڵຯ͸ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒ʹϓϥε ʹ࡞༻͢Δͱ͍͏Ծઆ͸ยଆ

99%

ͷ༗ҙਫ४Ͱࢧ࣋͞Εͨɽ

5.2

೥౓౷߹Ϟσϧ

೥౓౷߹Ϟσϧͷਪఆ݁Ռ͸ද

4

ɾද

5

ͷ௨ΓͰ͋Δɽද

4

ɾ

5

ͷ

Model 1

͸୯೥౓Ϟσϧʹɼೖࢼ੍౓μϛʔɼ೥౓μϛʔɼซئֶ෦μϛʔΛՃ͑ͨ΋ ͷͰ͋Δɽӳޠ΁ͷڵຯֶ͕Պબ୒ʹٴ΅͢Өڹ͸ɼӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ͷ༗ແʹ ࠨӈ͞ΕΔͱߟ͑ΒΕΔɽͦ͜Ͱ

Model 2

Ͱ͸ӳޠภࠩ஋ͱӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ͷ ަ߲ࠩΛՃ͑ͨɽ୯೥౓ϞσϧͰ͸ӳޠͱ਺ֶ͚͕ͩ΄΅શͯͷ೥౓Ͱ༗ҙ Ͱ্͋ͬͨɼਤ

1

Ͱ਺ֶͷ

ME

ͱ

APE

ͷဃ཭͕ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ͷ༗ແͰมԽ ͨͨ͠Ίɼ

Model 3

Ͱ͸͞Βʹ਺ֶภࠩ஋ͱӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ͷަ߲ࠩΛՃ͑ͨɽ

ަ߲ࠩΛಋೖ߲ͨ͠͸͍ͣΕ΋༗ҙͰ͋Γɼ·ͨɼ

Model 3

ͷ

Log

Likeli-hood

͕࠷΋ߴ͍஋ͷͨΊɼҎޙͷ෼ੳͰ͸ಛʹஅΓ͕ͳ͍ݶΓ

Model 3

ͷ݁ Ռʹ͍ͭͯۛຯ͍ͯ͘͠ɽ ·ͣɼʮࠃࡍʯ໊শϓϨϛΞϜԾઆʹ͍ͭͯݟͯΈΑ͏ɽ

Model 1

͔Β

3

· Ͱ͍ͣΕͷϞσϧʹ͓͍ͯ΋ఆ਺߲͸༗ҙͰ͸ͳ͍ɽ͢ͳΘͪɼֶ໰తڵຯɼ ͦͷଞμϛʔม਺Ͱίϯτϩʔϧ͞ΕͨཁҼҎ֎ֶ͕Պબ୒֬཰ʹӨڹΛٴ ΅͢౷ܭతʹ༗ҙͳޮՌ͸ݟΒΕͳ͍ɽֶ྆Պ͸ఏڙՊ໨΋ಉ্͡ɼਐֶޙͷ θϛʹ͍ͭͯ΋

2016

೥·ͰֶՊͷ۠ผͳ͘ߦΘΕ͍ͯͨͨҝɼ౷ܭతʹίϯ

ද

4:

೥౓౷߹Ϟσϧਪఆ݁Ռʢͦͷ

1

ʣ

Dependent variable:

ܦࡁֶՊબ୒֬཰

Model 1 Model 2 Mode 3 Constant −5.873 −9.576 −9.547 (17.786) (22.193) (22.350) உੑ 0.324∗∗∗ 0.324∗∗∗ 0.326∗∗∗ (0.017) (0.018) (0.018) ࠃޠภࠩ஋ 0.017∗∗∗ 0.017∗∗∗ 0.017∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) ӳޠภࠩ஋ _−0.045∗∗∗ _−0.017∗∗∗ _−0.017∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) ೔ຊ࢙Bภࠩ஋ 0.012∗∗∗ 0.009∗∗∗ 0.009∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) ੈք࢙Bภࠩ஋ 0.009∗∗∗ 0.005∗∗∗ 0.005∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) ੓࣏.ܦࡁภࠩ஋ 0.009∗∗∗ 0.005∗∗∗ 0.006∗∗∗ (0_.001) (0_.001) (0_.001) ஍ཧBภࠩ஋ 0.008∗∗∗ 0.005∗∗∗ 0.005∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) ਺ֶภࠩ஋ 0.021∗∗∗ 0.019∗∗∗ 0.020∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) ӳޠภࠩ஋:ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ _−0.140∗∗∗ _−0.137∗∗∗ (0.003) (0.003) ਺ֶภࠩ஋:ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ _−0.006∗∗∗ (0.001) Observations 39,333 39,333 39,333 Log Likelihood -16,164.950 -14,483.340 -14,465.780 Akaike Inf. Crit. 32,375.890 29,014.680 28,981.560

Note: ஋͸܎਺஋ɼׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ∗p<0.1;∗∗p<0.05;∗∗∗p<0.01 ܎਺໊ʹภࠩ஋͕ೖͬͨม਺ͱڝ૪཰૿෼ࠩҎ֎͸μϛʔม਺ɽ ʮӳޠภࠩ஋:ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ʯͱʮ਺ֶภࠩ஋:ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ʯ͸ ަ߲ࠩɽ ϯτϩʔϧͨ͠ཁҼҎ֎ʹ͸ɼֶՊ໊শͷࠩҟ͔͠ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍ͱݴ͑Δɽఆ ਺߲͕༗ҙͰ͸ͳ͍ͨΊɼʮࠃࡍʯ໊শϓϨϛΞϜ͕ଘࡏ͢Δͱ͍͏Ծઆ͸غ ٫͞ΕΔɽ ࣍ʹɼೖࢼภࠩ஋Ͱଌֶͬͨ໰తڵຯͷେ͖͞ͱબ୒ֶՊʹؔ͢ΔԾઆΛۛ ຯ͠Α͏ɽ౷߹೥౓ϞσϧͰ͸Ͳͷภࠩ஋ม਺ͷ܎਺΋྆ଆ

98%

ͷਫ४Ͱ༗

ද

5:

೥౓౷߹Ϟσϧਪఆ݁Ռʢͦͷ

2

ʣ

Dependent variable:

ܦࡁֶՊબ୒֬཰

Model 1 Model 2 Mode 3

ڝ૪཰૿෼ࠩ _−0.153∗∗∗ _−0.167∗∗∗ _−0.167∗∗∗ (0.022) (0.023) (0.023) F೔ఔ 7.240 9.662 9.634 (17.785) (22.193) (22.350) ֶՊ৽ઃ 0.008 −0.013 −0.019 (0.037) (0.049) (0.048) ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ 0.189∗∗∗ 7.653∗∗∗ 7.566∗∗∗ (0.051) (0.182) (0.181) ηϯλʔલظ _−0.122∗∗ _{−0.059 −0.058} (0.057) (0.068) (0.067) A೔ఔซئ _−0.125∗∗∗ _−0.126∗∗∗ _−0.126∗∗∗ (0_.024) (0_.023) (0_.023) ࿘ਓ 0.074∗∗∗ 0.063∗∗∗ 0.062∗∗∗ (0.022) (0.023) (0.023) จֶ෦ซئ _−0.446∗∗∗ _−0.430∗∗∗ _−0.430∗∗∗ (0.028) (0.030) (0.030) ঎ֶ෦ซئ _{−0.007 −0.011 −0.009} (0.017) (0.018) (0.018) ๏ֶ෦ซئ _−0.040∗∗ _{−0.017 −0.016} (0.019) (0.020) (0.020) ਓؒՊֶ෦ซئ _−0.090∗∗∗ _−0.070∗∗∗ _−0.068∗∗∗ (0.025) (0.026) (0.026) ࠃࡍจԽֶ෦ซئ _−0.531∗∗∗ _−0.513∗∗∗ _−0.508∗∗∗ (0.031) (0.032) (0.032) Y2009 −0.188∗∗∗ −0.198∗∗∗ −0.196∗∗∗ (0.036) (0.036) (0.036) Y2012 0.006 0.005 0.005 (0.034) (0.033) (0.033) Observations 39,333 39,333 39,333 Log Likelihood -16,164.950 -14,483.340 -14,465.780 Akaike Inf. Crit. 32,375.890 29,014.680 28,981.560

Note: ஋͸܎਺஋ɼׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ∗p<0.1;∗∗p<0.05;∗∗∗p<0.01 ܎਺໊ʹภࠩ஋͕ೖͬͨม਺ͱڝ૪཰૿෼ࠩҎ֎͸μϛʔม਺ɽ

ʮӳޠภࠩ஋:ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ʯͱʮ਺ֶภࠩ஋:ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺ʯ͸

ͯ͠ܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰͕ฏۉͯ͠

0.62%

্ঢ͍ͯ͠Δɽ

ද

6:

౷߹೥౓Ϟσϧͷ

Average Partial Effects

ͱ

Marginal Effects(%)

APE ME Constant −198.458∗∗ −325.366∗∗ (77.716) (127.414) உੑ 10.754 10.754 (22.706) (22.706) ࠃޠภࠩ஋ 0.347 0.570 (0.678) (1.111) ӳޠภࠩ஋ _{−0.361 −0.591} (0.704) (1.153) ೔ຊ࢙Bภࠩ஋ 0.194 0.318 (0_.378) (0_.620) ੈք࢙Bภࠩ஋ 0_.111 0_.183 (0.218) (0.358) ੓࣏.ܦࡁภࠩ஋ 0.114 0.188 (0.224) (0.368) ஍ཧBภࠩ஋ 0.109 0.179 (0.214) (0.350) ਺ֶภࠩ஋ 0.419 0.687 (0.817) (1.339) ڝ૪཰૿෼ࠩ _{−3.466 −5.683} (6.775) (11.107) Y2009 −6.339 −6.339 (14.189) (14.189) දࣔͷ༗ޮܻ਺Λ૿΍ͨ͢Ί஋Λ100ഒ͠୯Ґ Λ%ʹ͍ͯ͠Δɽׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ∗p<0.1; ∗∗_p<0.05;∗∗∗_p<0.01 ࢖༻͍ͯ͠Δͷ͸ද4–ද5ͷModel 3ɽ ӳޠͱ਺ֶͷݶքޮՌ͸ӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺μϛʔ = 0ͰධՁɽ ද

6

͸ɼશαϯϓϧظ͔ؒΒܭࢉ͞Εͨ୅දతม਺ͷ

APE

ͱ

ME

Λ·ͱ Ίͨ΋ͷͰ͋Δɽͨͩ͠ɼަ߲ࠩޮՌΛߟྀͨ͠ӳޠͱ਺ֶʹؔͯ͠͸ɼ܏ࣼ

഑఺ͷͳ͍ݶքޮՌʹڵຯ͕͋ΔͨΊɼӳޠ܏ࣼ഑఺μϛʔΛ

0

ͰධՁͯ͠ࢉ ग़͍ͯ͠Δɽશαϯϓϧ͔Β܏ࣼ഑఺ͷޮՌΛऔΓআ͍ͯܭࢉ͢Δͱɼ਺ֶภ ࠩ஋

1

ϙΠϯτͷ্ঢͰܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰͸ฏۉͯ͠

0.419%

͔Β

0.687%

্ঢ͍ͯ͠ΔɽӳޠҎ֎ͷՊ໨͸શͯܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰ʹϓϥεʹد༩͠ ͍ͯΔ͕ɼֶՊؒͷֶ໰తڵຯͷࠩҟΛ୅ཧ͢Δͱߟ͑ΒΕΔબ୒Պ໨ʢ೔ຊ ࢙ɼੈք࢙ɼ੓ܦɼ஍ཧɼ਺ֶʣʹݶఆͯ͠ΈΔͱɼ਺ֶ͸ଞͷબ୒Պ໨ͷ΄ ΅ഒد༩͍ͯ͠Δɽ Ҏ্͔Βɼ஍ํͷࢲཱจܥେֶͷܦࡁֶ෦ʹ͓͍ͯ΋ɼܦࡁֶՊͰ͸͋Δఔ ౓਺ֶΛ࢖͏͜ͱ͕ߴߍੜ͔Βظ଴͞Ε͍ͯΔ͜ͱ͕࢕͑Δɽ·ͨɼӳޠภ ࠩ஋͚͕ͩࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰ʹϓϥεʹد༩͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ͔Βɼਐֶ ޙͷΧϦΩϡϥϜʹಛஈͷࠩҟ͕ͳͯ͘΋ӳޠʹڵຯ͕͋Δʢ΋͘͠͸ಘҙ ͳʣडݧੜ͕ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊͷڭҭʹظ଴͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ͕෼͔Δɽ ͦͷଞɼ

Model 3

ͷਪఆ݁Ռ͔ΒಡΈऔΕΔࣄ߲ΛݟͯΈΑ͏ɽ࿘ਓ͸ܦ ࡁֶՊͷબ୒ʹϓϥεʹ࡞༻͢Δ͜ͱ͕෼͔Δɽซئֶ෦μϛʔ͸΋͏Ұͭ ͷֶ໰తڵຯͷ୅ཧࢦඪͱͳΔ͕ɼਓจܥֶ෦ʢจֶɼਓؒՊֶɼࠃࡍจԽֶ ෦ʣ͸͍ͣΕ΋ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰ͱਖ਼ͷ૬ؔΛ͍࣋ͬͯΔɽ·ͨɼڝ૪ ཰૿෼͕ࠩϚΠφεͰ༗ҙͳͷͰִ೥ݱ৅͕౷ܭతʹ֬ೝ͞ΕΔɽ ੢ೆֶӃେֶܦࡁֶ෦ͷҰ෦ͷڭһͷؒͰ͸ɼࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʹ͸ྺ࢙ʹڵ ຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͕ΑΓଟ͘ू·͍ͬͯΔͱߟ͑ΒΕ͍ͯΔ͕ɼਪఆ݁ՌΛݟΔ ݶΓɼޠֶҎ֎ͷબ୒Պ໨΁ͷڵຯ͸શͯܦࡁֶՊͷબ୒֬཰ʹϓϥεʹ࡞ ༻͍ͯ͠Δɽ ෆگ࣌ʹ͸ܦࡁֶՊ͕ෆརͱ͍͏આ͸ɼϦʔϚϯϒϥβʔζ௚ޙͷ

2009

೥ μϛʔ͕ܦࡁֶՊʹରͯ͠ϚΠφεʹ࡞༻͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱͰࢧ࣋͞Ε͍ͯΔ͕ɼ ౦೔ຊେ਒ࡂͷӨڹʢ

2012

೥μϛʔʣ͸༗ҙʹೝΊΒΕͳ͍ɽ͜Ε͸ɼ

A

೔ ఔซئμϛʔ͕

2012

೥Ҏ߱

1

Ͱ͋ΔͷͰɼͪ͜ΒͰ͋Δఔ౓ޮՌ͕ٵऩ͞Ε ͍ͯΔͷ͔΋͠Εͳ͍ɽܠؾมಈͱֶՊબ୒ͷؔ܎͸ɼผͷ෼ੳΛ଴ͨͶ͹ ͳΒͳ͍ɽ

6

·ͱΊ

ຊߘͰ͸ɼ஍ํͷࢲཱେֶܦࡁֶ෦ʹ͓͍ͯɼडݧੜ͕ܦࡁֶՊͱࠃࡍܦࡁ ֶՊΛͲͷΑ͏ͳֶ໰తڵຯʹج͍ͮͯબ୒͢Δ͔ɼϓϩϏοτϞσϧΛ༻ ͍ͯਪఆͨ͠ɽೖࢼબ୒Պ໨ͷ੒੷ֶ͕ੜͷֶ໰తڵຯͷ୅ཧม਺ʹͳΓಘ Δͱ͍͏ԾఆΛೝΊΔͳΒ͹ɼ਺ֶʹڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͸ܦࡁֶՊΛɼӳޠʹ ڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͸ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊΛબ୒͢Δ֬཰ΛΘ͔ͣͰ͸͋Δ͕༗ҙʹ্ ঢͤ͞Δ͜ͱ͕൑໌ͨ͠ɽ·ͨɼֶ໰తڵຯɼೖࢼ੍౓ɼೖࢼ೉қ౓ͷมԽ౳ ͷཁҼΛഉআͯ͠΋·ͩ࢒ΔֶՊબ޷όΠΞε͸౷ܭతʹೝΊΒΕͳ͔ͬͨɽ ͜Ε͸੢ೆֶӃେֶͷࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊʹ͸ʮࠃࡍʯ໊শόΠΞε͕ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍͜ ͱΛҙຯ͍ͯ͠Δɽͨͩ͠ɼֶ྆Պʹڭҭ্ͷ͕ࠩͳ͍ʹ΋͔͔ΘΒͣɼӳޠ ʹڵຯͷ͋Δֶੜ͕ࠃࡍܦࡁֶՊΛબ୒͕ͪ͠Ͱ͋Δͱ͍͏͜ͱ͕ͦ͜ʮࠃ ࡍʯ໊শόΠΞεͰ͋Δͱݴ͑ͳ͘΋ͳ͍ɽ

Yamaoka, Asano and Abe (2010)

͸ɼ

The Journal of Economic Education

ͷܦࡁֶڭҭಛू߸ʹ͓͍ͯҎԼͷΑ͏ʹड़΂͍ͯΔɽ

Many high school graduates choose to go on to a faculty of

eco-nomics in university for no particular reason and without any strong

desire to learn economics.

ࣅͨΑ͏ͳݴઆ͸ଟ͘ͷڭһ͔Βࣖʹ͢ΔɽͦΕʹ΋͔͔ΘΒͣɼ஍ํͷࢲ ཱจܥେֶʹೖֶલͷஈ֊ʹ͓͍ͯɼඍখ֬཰Ͱ͸͋Δ͕਺ֶతڵຯ͕ܦࡁ ֶՊબ୒֬཰ʹϓϥεʹ࡞༻͢Δ͜ͱ͕౷ܭతʹ༗ҙʹݱΕͯ͘Δͱ͍͏ͷ ͸ಛචʹ஋͢Δɽࣛ໺ɾߴ໦ɾଜᖒ

(2011)

ͷݚڀͰ͸ɼϛΫϩɾϚΫϩܦࡁ ֶೖ໳Պ໨ͷ੒੷ʹ༩͑ΔཁҼΛίϯτϩʔϧͯ͠΋·ͩɼೖֶޙͷ਺ֶڭ ҭΛࢪͨ͠ੜెͷ߹֨཰͕༗ҙʹ্ঢ͢Δ͜ͱ͕ใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔɽ൴Βͷݚ ڀͰ͸ܦࡁֶ෦ʹ͓͚Δ਺ֶڭҭͷॏཁੑΛ͍ࣔͯ͠Δɽ ܦࡁֶ͸ৗʹσʔλͰओு͕ݕূ͞ΕΔ΂͖ͰɼΧϦΩϡϥϜ΋ҹ৅ʹج

͍ͮͯฤ੒͞ΕΔͷͰ͸ͳ͘ɼσʔλʹج͍ͮͯडݧੜͷχʔζΛټΈऔͬ ͍ͯ͘͜ͱ͕ॏཁͰ͋Δɽຊߘͷ෼ੳ݁ՌͰ͸ɼܦࡁֶՊʹ͸਺ֶʹڵຯͷ ͋Δʢ΋͘͠͸ಘҙͳʣֶੜ͕ࢤئ͍ͯ͠Δ܏޲͕౷ܭతʹೝΊΒΕɼࠃࡍܦ ࡁֶՊʹ͸ޠֶʹڵຯͷ͋Δʢ΋͘͠͸ಘҙͳʣֶੜ͕ࢤئ͍ͯ͠Δ܏޲͕ ౷ܭతʹೝΊΒΕͨͨΊɼֶՊؒͷಛ௃Λੜ͔ͨ͠ΧϦΩϡϥϜฤ੒͕ظ଴ ͞ΕΔɽࠓޙ͸डݧੜ͚ͩͰͳ͘ɼೖֶऀʹର͢Δσʔλ෼ੳ΋ߦ͍ͳ͕Βɼ ܦࡁֶ෦ڭҭͷ͋Δ΂͖ಓΛ୳͍͖͍ͬͯͨɽ

ࢀߟจݙ

Arcidiancono, Peter (2004) “Abilitysorting and the returns to college

ma-jor,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 121, pp. 343–375.

Arcidiancono, Peter, V. Joseph Hotz, and Songman Kang (2012)

“Mod-eling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations

and counterfactuals,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 166, No. 1, pp.

3–16.

Bradley, Elizabeth S. (2012) “The Effect of the Business Cycle on

Fresh-man Major Choice,” MPRA Paper No. 42412, October.

Griffiths, William E., R. Carter Hill, and George G. Judge (1993) Learning

and Practicing Econometrics: Willey.

Yamaoka, Michio, Tadayoshi Asano, and Shintaro Abe (2010) “The

Present State of Economic Education in Japan,”

The Journal of

Economic Education, Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 448–460.

ࣛ໺ൟथɾߴ໦ਅޗɾଜᖒ߁༑

(2011)

ʮܦࡁֶͷ੒੷ʹର͢Δ਺ֶֶशͷޮ

Ռɿίϯτϩʔϧؔ਺ΞϓϩʔνʹΑΔਪఆͱ༧උݕఆʯɼʰ౷ܭ਺ཧʱɼ

ୈ

59

רɼୈ

2

߸ɼ

301–319

ทɽ

෱࢜ৡ

(2014)

ʮେֶڭҭʮج४ʯՊ໨໊ͳ͘ʯɼʰ೔ຊܦࡁ৽ฉேץʱɼ

29

ทɽ ٶా୎໻

(2015)

ʮֶ෦બ୒ٴͼจཧબ୒ͷ࣮ূ෼ੳʯɼʰ

CIS Discussion Paper

ද

7:

୯೥౓Ϟσϧਪఆ݁Ռ

2000

೥

–2004

೥ Dep endent variable: ܦࡁֶՊબ୒֬཰ 2000 ೥ 2001 ೥ 2002 ೥ 2003 ೥ 2004 ೥ Constan t 8. 208 ∗∗∗ 7. 618 ∗∗∗ 7. 571 ∗∗∗ 7. 449 ∗∗∗ 6. 342 ∗∗∗ (0 .454) (0 .426) (0 .421) (0 .394) (0 .361) உੑ 0. 027 0. 164 ∗ − 0. 018 0. 162 ∗ 0. 329 ∗∗∗ (0 .105) (0 .099) (0 .098) (0 .093) (0 .087) ࠃޠ 0. 041 ∗∗∗ 0. 067 ∗∗∗ 0. 047 ∗∗∗ 0. 061 ∗∗∗ 0. 046 ∗∗∗ (0 .006) (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .005) (0 .005) ӳޠ − 0. 238 ∗∗∗ − 0. 236 ∗∗∗ − 0. 228 ∗∗∗ − 0. 241 ∗∗∗ − 0. 194 ∗∗∗ (0 .010) (0 .010) (0 .009) (0 .010) (0 .008) ೔ຊ࢙ B0 .065 ∗∗∗ 0. 043 ∗∗∗ 0. 062 ∗∗∗ 0. 057 ∗∗∗ 0. 049 ∗∗∗ (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .005) ੈք࢙ B0 .061 ∗∗∗ 0. 046 ∗∗∗ 0. 060 ∗∗∗ 0. 059 ∗∗∗ 0. 046 ∗∗∗ (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .005) ੓࣏ . ܦࡁ 0. 052 ∗∗∗ 0. 036 ∗∗∗ 0. 059 ∗∗∗ 0. 047 ∗∗∗ 0. 032 ∗∗∗ (0 .007) (0 .007) (0 .007) (0 .006) (0 .006) ஍ཧ B0 .059 ∗∗∗ 0. 047 ∗∗∗ 0. 063 ∗∗∗ 0. 057 ∗∗∗ 0. 043 ∗∗∗ (0 .006) (0 .006) (0 .006) (0 .006) (0 .005) ਺ֶ 0. 070 ∗∗∗ 0. 050 ∗∗∗ 0. 068 ∗∗∗ 0. 065 ∗∗∗ 0. 048 ∗∗∗ (0 .006) (0 .006) (0 .006) (0 .006) (0 .005) ࿘ਓ − 0. 341 ∗∗∗ 0. 028 − 0. 082 − 0. 068 0. 027 (0 .122) (0 .124) (0 .111) (0 .101) (0 .094) Observ ations 2,513 2,823 2,971 3,143 3,082 Log Li k el iho o d -397.316 -405.066 -431.829 -492.196 -570.015 A k aik e Inf . C rit. 814.631 830.132 883.659 1,004.392 1,160.029 Note: ஋͸܎਺஋ɼׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ ∗p< 0.1; ∗∗ p< 0.05; ∗∗∗ p< 0.01

ද

8:

୯೥౓Ϟσϧਪఆ݁Ռ

2005

೥

–2009

೥ Dep endent variable: ܦࡁֶՊબ୒֬཰ 2005 ೥ 2006 ೥ 2007 ೥ 2008 ೥ 2009 ೥ Constan t 8. 730 ∗∗∗ 5. 203 ∗∗∗ 6. 119 ∗∗∗ − 0. 229 0. 031 (0 .489) (0 .314) (0 .392) (0 .169) (0 .173) உੑ 0. 138 0. 332 ∗∗∗ 0. 451 ∗∗∗ 0. 443 ∗∗∗ 0. 468 ∗∗∗ (0 .108) (0 .084) (0 .103) (0 .052) (0 .055) ࠃޠ 0. 061 ∗∗∗ 0. 053 ∗∗∗ 0. 049 ∗∗∗ 0. 016 ∗∗∗ 0. 022 ∗∗∗ (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .003) (0 .003) ӳޠ − 0. 244 ∗∗∗ − 0. 183 ∗∗∗ − 0. 208 ∗∗∗ − 0. 014 ∗∗∗ − 0. 018 ∗∗∗ (0 .011) (0 .007) (0 .009) (0 .003) (0 .003) ೔ຊ࢙ B0 .043 ∗∗∗ 0. 045 ∗∗∗ 0. 068 ∗∗∗ 0. 008 ∗∗∗ − 0. 001 (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .003) (0 .003) ੈք࢙ B0 .043 ∗∗∗ 0. 041 ∗∗∗ 0. 062 ∗∗∗ 0. 002 − 0. 004 (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .003) (0 .003) ੓࣏ . ܦࡁ 0. 032 ∗∗∗ 0. 041 ∗∗∗ 0. 056 ∗∗∗ 0. 005 − 0. 003 (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .003) (0 .003) ஍ཧ B0 .040 ∗∗∗ 0. 039 ∗∗∗ 0. 060 ∗∗∗ 0. 005 ∗ − 0. 006 ∗ (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .003) (0 .003) ਺ֶ 0. 051 ∗∗∗ 0. 053 ∗∗∗ 0. 072 ∗∗∗ 0. 017 ∗∗∗ 0. 014 ∗∗∗ (0 .006) (0 .005) (0 .006) (0 .003) (0 .003) ࿘ਓ 0. 081 − 0. 227 ∗∗ 0. 253 ∗ 0. 207 ∗∗∗ 0. 024 (0 .120) (0 .096) (0 .130) (0 .067) (0 .067) Observ ations 2,842 2,687 2,533 3,263 2,969 Log Li k el iho o d -365.539 -616.629 -395.509 -1,801.167 -1,623.742 A k aik e Inf . C rit. 751.078 1,253.259 811.018 3,622.334 3,267.485 Note: ஋͸܎਺஋ɼׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ ∗p< 0.1; ∗∗ p< 0.05; ∗∗∗ p< 0.01

ද

9:

୯೥౓Ϟσϧਪఆ݁Ռ

2010

೥

–2014

೥ Dep endent variable: ܦࡁֶՊબ୒֬཰ 2010 ೥ 2011 ೥ 2012 ೥ 2013 ೥ 2014 ೥ Constan t 0. 565 ∗∗∗ 0. 507 ∗∗ − 0. 033 0. 458 ∗∗ 0. 218 (0 .203) (0 .211) (0 .202) (0 .193) (0 .202) உੑ 0. 384 ∗∗∗ 0. 651 ∗∗∗ 0. 390 ∗∗∗ 0. 383 ∗∗∗ 0. 341 ∗∗∗ (0 .062) (0 .064) (0 .062) (0 .059) (0 .063) ࠃޠ 0. 005 ∗ 0. 012 ∗∗∗ 0. 009 ∗∗∗ 0. 008 ∗∗∗ 0. 009 ∗∗∗ (0 .003) (0 .004) (0 .003) (0 .003) (0 .003) ӳޠ − 0. 011 ∗∗∗ − 0. 019 ∗∗∗ − 0. 004 − 0. 012 ∗∗∗ − 0. 009 ∗∗∗ (0 .003) (0 .004) (0 .003) (0 .003) (0 .003) ೔ຊ࢙ B0 .001 − 0. 002 − 0. 002 − 0. 001 − 0. 002 (0 .003) (0 .003) (0 .003) (0 .003) (0 .003) ੈք࢙ B − 0. 003 − 0. 005 − 0. 005 − 0. 008 ∗∗ − 0. 006 ∗ (0 .003) (0 .004) (0 .004) (0 .003) (0 .004) ੓࣏ . ܦࡁ − 0. 003 − 0. 004 − 0. 006 − 0. 004 − 0. 004 (0 .004) (0 .004) (0 .004) (0 .004) (0 .004) ஍ཧ B − 0. 006 − 0. 007 ∗ − 0. 007 ∗ − 0. 006 ∗ − 0. 008 ∗∗ (0 .004) (0 .004) (0 .004) (0 .004) (0 .004) ਺ֶ 0. 014 ∗∗∗ 0. 011 ∗∗∗ 0. 012 ∗∗∗ 0. 010 ∗∗∗ 0. 013 ∗∗∗ (0 .003) (0 .004) (0 .003) (0 .003) (0 .004) ࿘ਓ 0. 186 ∗∗ 0. 007 0. 083 − 0. 068 0. 083 (0 .080) (0 .085) (0 .079) (0 .079) (0 .082) Observ ations 2,437 2,087 2,185 2,328 2,157 Log Li k el iho o d -1,237.414 -1,128.877 -1,240.317 -1,371.284 -1,244.012 A k aik e Inf . C rit. 2,494.827 2,277.755 2,500.633 2,762.567 2,508.024 Note: ஋͸܎਺஋ɼׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ ∗p< 0.1; ∗∗ p< 0.05; ∗∗∗ p< 0.01

ද

10:

୯೥౓Ϟσϧਪఆ݁Ռ

2015

೥

–2016

೥ Dep endent variable: ܦࡁֶՊબ୒֬཰ 2015 ೥ 2016 ೥ Constan t 0. 374 ∗ 0. 882 ∗∗∗ (0 .206) (0 .186) உੑ 0. 499 ∗∗∗ 0. 405 ∗∗∗ (0 .063) (0 .057) ࠃޠ 0. 003 0. 005 (0 .003) (0 .003) ӳޠ − 0. 009 ∗∗∗ − 0. 016 ∗∗∗ (0 .003) (0 .003) ೔ຊ࢙ B − 0. 001 − 0. 003 (0 .003) (0 .003) ੈք࢙ B − 0. 008 ∗∗ − 0. 007 ∗∗ (0 .003) (0 .003) ੓࣏ . ܦࡁ − 0. 004 − 0. 001 (0 .004) (0 .003) ஍ཧ B − 0. 001 − 0. 004 (0 .004) (0 .003) ਺ֶ 0. 012 ∗∗∗ 0. 010 ∗∗∗ (0 .003) (0 .003) ࿘ਓ 0. 150 ∗ − 0. 009 (0 .091) (0 .092) Observ ations 2,124 2,525 Log Li k el iho o d -1,223.011 -1,405.720 A k aik e Inf . C rit. 2,466.023 2,831.441 Note: ஋͸܎਺஋ɼׅހ಺͸ඪ४ภࠩɽ ∗p< 0.1; ∗∗ p< 0.05; ∗∗∗ p< 0.01