Index
権利
Copyrights 日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）アジア
経済研究所 / Institute of Developing
Economies, Japan External Trade Organization
(IDE-JETRO) http://www.ide.go.jp
シリーズタイトル(英
)
Occasional Papers Series
シリーズ番号
41
journal or
publication title
Electoral Volatility in Turkey - Cleavages vs.
the Economy
page range
161-166
year
2007
Abadan, Nermin, 20, 48 Adnan, Akçay, 57n12 ag˘a, 95n11 Ahmad, Feroz, 95n10, 95n11 Akbulut, Yıldırım, 95n19 Aksay, Hasan, 86 Aksu, Abdülkâdir, 88 Aks¸it, Bahattin, 57n12 Akyüz, Yılmaz, 128n7 Alevi sect, 59, 64–65, 70, 73–77, 79 villages, 70–72, 81n20 Alevi sectarianism
See under social cleavages
Andrews, Peter, 70 Assembly of Representatives, 42 as¸iret reisi, 95n11 autocorrelation, 51, 57n10, 107–8, 110 Avcı, Gamze, 24n9, 62, 79n5 Ayata, Ays¸e, 76 Bahçacı, 69 Balog˘lu, Zekai, 69 Bartolini, Stefano, 1, 6n2, 7n5, 9–10, 15n8, 28, 73, 79n4 Baykal, Deniz, 20, 56n7 Bilici, Faruk, 80n15 Bora, Tanıl, 95n13 Boratav, Korkut, 21, 25n11, 25n12, 128n7 Bozarslan, Hamit, 80n15 Bruinessen, Martin, 74, 76, 81n23 Bulutay, Tuncer, 22, 25n16, 111, 117, 128n11, 128n15 Can, Kemal, 95n13
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, 38n20, 113 constituency contingency seats, 44, 45n10 multimember, 43 seats, 43 size, 43, 45, 46n12 constitution, 3, 7, 41–42, 83, 91–92, 94, 96 1924 constitution, 42 1961 constitution, 42–43, 48, 83, 86, 95n8 1982 constitution, 7n10, 42–44, 83, 90– 92, 94n3 Constitutional Assembly, 41–42 Constitutional Court (Anayasa
Mahke-mesi), 19, 24n2, 44, 87, 91 Consultative Assembly, 42 correlogram, 107–8, 114 corruption, 49, 56n5, 121 Cos¸kun, Ali, 88
162 INDEX Çakır, Rus¸en, 86–88, 95n18 Çarkog˘lu, Ali, 21–22, 24n9, 62, 79n11, 80n14, 106, 116 Çetin, Hikmet, 88 Çiçek, Cemil, 88 Çiller, Tansu, 56n5 Demirel, Süleyman, 94n4, 95n11 democracy
Turkey as electoral democracy, 6, 32, 39, 41, 45, 59
Democracy Party (Democrasi Partisi, DEP), 77, 90–91, 93
Democrat Party (Demokrat Parti, DP), 3–4, 7n10, 19, 41–43, 45n4, 48
Democrat Turkey Party (Demokrat Türkiye Partisi, DTP), 129n28
Democratic Left Party (Demokratik Sol Parti, DSP), 24n1, 25n11, 64, 125–26, 129n29
Democratic Party (Demokratik Parti, DP), 87, 95n11
Democratic People’s Party (Demokratik Halk Partisi, DEHAP), 75, 77, 90, 95n22, 135 democratic transition, 2, 4 democratization, 2 Dicle, Hatip, 90 Dinçer, Bülent, 136n2 Dog˘an, Lütfü, 95n12 Downs, Anthony, 135 Duman, Dog˘an, 68, 81n18, 87 Ecevit, Bülent, 49, 94n4 ecological inference, 32 economic crisis, 98, 119, 136 economic growth, 107–8 elections general elections, 3, 5, 16n13, 20–22, 24n4, 24n10, 29, 31, 34, 38n17, 38n22, 39, 41–44, 47, 48–49, 55, 77, 80n6, 80n10, 84, 86–88, 90, 94n2, 97, 98, 115–16, 119, 123–24, 127n1, 128n10, 129n25, 129n27, 129n28, 136 local elections, 21 senate elections, 45n6 transition elections, 2–4, 42, 44, 49, elections (continued) 79n2, 80n6, 80n7, 83–84 electoral behavior studies on Turkey, 19–25 electoral change, 9–11, 14–15, 15n2, 19, 23, 27, 31
empirical theories of, 9–17 electoral law 1961 electoral law, 43–44 1983 electoral law, 48, 95n16 electoral participation, 9, 15n1, 47–48, 50, 54–56 electoral realignment, 1, 7n6, 21, 136 electoral system d’Hondt system, 43–44, 45n8 in Turkey, 39, 43–44, 45n2, 79 majoritarian, 3 national remainder, 44 proportional representation, 3, 43, 45, 79n2, 81n25, 116 electoral volatility cleavage-type volatilities, 28–30, 32, 59, 76–77, 80n6, 85, 120 cleavage-volatility index, 38n8 definition of, 1, 27–30 far-left volatility, 74 far-right volatility, 74 inter-bloc volatility, 28, 37n5, 70, 74 retrospective-type volatilities, 28–29, 30, 120–21, 131 retrospective-volatility index, 38n8 total electoral volatility, 13, 28, 30,
37n4, 105
within-bloc volatility, 28 employment, 23, 110, 112, 117
unpaid family workers, 110, 112, 129n24 Erbakan, Necmettin, 45n1, 86–87, 94n4, 95n12 Erder, Necat, 22–23, 25n13, 25n14, 25n15, 81n16 Erdog˘an, Murat, 21
Erdog˘an, Recep Tayyip, 95n12 Ergüder, Üstün, 21, 61, 63, 80n12 Erlat, Haluk, 113
Ertug˘rul, Ahmet, 128n7 Esmer, Yılmaz, 23, 25n20
factor analysis, 21, 60–61, 79n5, 80n12 Alevi factor, 64
eigenvalues, 62
factor loadings, 62, 64, 80n11 factor scores, 64
geographical distribution of factors, 64 rotations, 62
secular-religious factor, 64, 80n13 Turk-Kurd factor, 64
February 28 Process (28 S¸ubat Süreci), 45n1
Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi, SP), 74, 93 freezing hypothesis, 10–11
Gençkaya, Ömer, 89 Gulf War/Crisis, 90 Güner, Arif Hikmet, 86 Güney, Aylin, 74 Halabja massacre, 89 Hazama, Yasushi, 45n1 Heper, Metin, 37n6 heteroscedasticity, 33, 38n13, 70, 118, 128n21
hierarchical linear model, 70
Hofferbert, Richard, 21, 61, 63, 80n12 Huntington, Samuel, 2, 6n3 Hürriyet, 89, 96n26 Hussein, Saddam, 89 imam-hatip lisesi, 68–69, 81n17 indexation, 113, 128n18 inflation, 12, 22, 105, 107, 113–15, 117– 18, 120, 124, 127, 128n21, 128n22, 129n24 inertial, 113, 117, 127 institutionalization party-system, 1, 5, 6, 6n3, 20, 59, 93, 135
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 118, 128n10, 129n23
stabilization program, 118 I˙skender Pas¸a Dergâhı, 87 I˙stanbul Mülkiyeliler Vakfı Sosyal
Aras¸tırmalar Merkezi, 25n19
Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve
Kalkınma Partisi, AKP), 43, 74, 77, 90, 93, 135
Justice Party (Adalet Partisi, AP), 19, 24n3, 44, 48, 84, 86–87, 95n10, 95n11, 95n15, 125–26 Kabog˘lu, I˙brahim, 91 Kalaycıog˘lu, Ersin, 19, 23 Kardan, Ahmet, 21, 24n10 Karpat, Kemal, 7n9 Kasapbas¸, Cos¸kun, 90, 95n22 Kiris¸çi, Kemal, 89–90 Kıs¸lalı, Mehmet, 89 Koran courses, 69, 81n18, 86 Kurdish ethnicity
See under social cleavages
Kurdish language, 67, 90
Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan, PKK), 88
Kurds clans of, 74 ethnic, 65
population, 70, 72, 81n24, 88 provinces populated by, 74–75, 77,
81n24, 81n26 refugees, 89 left-right, 14, 21, 23, 28–30, 32, 63, 73–77, 79, 79n4 legislature bicameral, 41–43 unicameral, 43 Lipset, Seymour, 10–11, 16n8, 17n20, 31, 60 logarithmic transformation, 70 logit, 33, 98, 102–4 logit models, 98, 102–4 bivariate, 99, 101, 103–4 multivariate, 99 Mainwaring, Scott, 6n3, 7n3 Mair, Peter, 1, 6n2, 7n5, 9, 10, 15n8, 28, 73, 79n4 Mango, Andrew, 28, 37n6 Mardin, S¸erif, 69, 95n21 martial law, 41–42, 89 McDowall, David, 89 Mert, Baki, 69
164 INDEX migrants, 33–34 migration, 33–34, 70 militant democracy, 91 military governments, 3, 7n10, 42, 48–49, 68, 79n2, 83, 93, 94n1, 94n2, 96n27, 118 military intervention, 1, 4, 39, 43–45, 48, 59, 74, 76, 79, 79n2, 96n27, 135 mother tongues, 70
Motherland Party (Anavatan Partisi, ANAP), 24n1, 24n11, 42, 44, 84, 87–88, 94n1, 94n2, 95n19, 119, 125–26 multiparty system, 4, 41, 59 Mutlu, Servet, 67, 70 Naks¸ibendi, 87–88
Nation Party (Millet Partisi, MP), 24n3 National Order Party (Milli Nizam Partisi,
MNP), 74, 87
National Salvation Party (Milli Selamet Partisi, MSP), 74, 87, 95n5, 125–26 National Security Council, 42, 45n1, 83 National Unity Committee, 42
Nationalist Action Party (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi, MHP), 64, 74, 95n13, 95n15, 125–26, 135
Nationalist Democracy Party (Milliyetçi Demokrasi Partisi, MDP), 84, 94n1, 94n2
Nationalist Front governments, 87 Nationalist Work Party (Milliyetçi Çalıs¸ma
Partisi, MÇP), 74
New Democratic Formation (Yeni Demo-kratik Olus¸um), 88
New Turkey Party (Yeni Türkiye Partisi, YTP), 74 Nuhrat, Cenap, 20, 22, 24n6, 24n7, 56n6 Nurcu, 87 Ölmez, Osman, 88, 93 Özal, Korkut, 95n12 Özal, Turgut, 84, 89, 94n1, 95n12, 95n19 Özbudun, Ergun, 1, 5–6, 20–23, 24n8, 40, 42, 47, 50, 54, 56n3, 56n7, 74, 91, 95n8, 96n25 Özcan, Yusuf, 21, 25n12 Özek, Çetin, 86 Paksu, A. Tevfik, 86 parliamentary system, 2 party closure
See also party dissolution, 90–91, 93
party dissolution
constitutional amendments, 93
See also party closure, 92
party identification, 9, 10, 14–15, 16n11, 19–20, 31 party loyalties, 10, 14, 60 party system fragmented, 43, 62 Pedersen, Mogens, 1, 4
People’s Democracy Party (Halkın Demokrasi Partisi, HADEP), 64, 75, 77, 81n16, 90, 95n21, 135
People’s Labor Party (Halkın Emek Partisi, HEP), 64, 77, 88, 90, 91, 93, 95n16 place and political behavior, 4, 12, 16n15,
28, 115–16, 124 political context, 12, 14, 49 political opportunities, 86, 90, 94, 95n7 political parties catch-all parties, 11 pro-Islamic party, 44, 77, 86–88, 94, 95n10 pro-Kurdish party, 74, 77–78, 88, 90, 94, 135 political responsibility, 12, 115 polyarchy, 39, 41
Populist Party (Halkçı Parti, HP), 84, 94n1 presidential system, 2
press ban, 89 provinces
as the unit of analysis, 5, 20–23, 24n5, 32–34, 37, 37n1, 38n17, 44, 50–51, 54, 56, 60, 63, 70–72, 74–75, 77, 80n14, 81n24, 81n26, 90, 95n20, 95n21, 95n22, 96n25, 116, 124, 126, 128 in Turkey, 5, 20–22, 24, 32–34, 37–38, 44, 50–51, 54, 56, 60, 63, 70–72, 74– 75, 77, 80, 81, 90, 95–96, 116, 124, 126, 128n21 real wages, 118, 127, 128n22 religiosity, 14, 16n19, 21, 28, 31, 38n9, 60, 68, 69, 72–74, 77–78, 87
See also social cleavages: Sunni
religiosity
religious associations, 69, 86 Republican Peasant’s Nation Party
(Cumhuriyetçi Köylü Millet Partisi, CKMP), 74, 95n13
Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP), 4, 19, 24n1, 24n3, 41, 44, 45n4, 46n12, 49, 56n3, 64, 75, 80n13, 81n16, 84, 91, 125
Republican Reliance Party (Cumhuriyetçi Güven Partisi, CGP), 125–26
retrospective voting before and after 1980, 120
cross-sectional analysis of, 32, 124, 127 micro-level, 6, 9, 11–12, 14–15, 16n11,
22–23, 27, 31, 97, 102, 104–5, 113, 117–18, 120, 124, 126–27, 129n28, 129n29, 135
time-series analysis of, 12, 22, 32, 105, 127, 129n31 Rodrik, Dani, 128n7 Rokkan, Stein, 10, 11, 16n8, 31, 60 rural development, 52 Sabuncu, Yavuz, 45n9 Sakallıog˘lu, Ümit, 113 sanaatkar, 95n10 Sarıbay, Ali, 19 Schüler, Harald, 76
senate (Cumhuriyet Senatosu), 43 Sencer, Muzaffer, 20, 22
social cleavages, 6, 9–11, 13–15, 16n8, 20–21, 23, 27, 31–32, 59–61, 65, 68, 72–73, 76–79, 83, 85, 93, 105, 135 Alevi sectarianism, 59, 70, 73–77, 79 and long-term volatility, 73
and short-term volatility, 76 choice of, 60–67
definition of, 60–61
Kurdish ethnicity, 28, 59, 69–70, 73–74, 76–77, 79, 83, 85, 89, 93
segmentation as index of, 60
Sunni religiosity, 59, 68, 73–74, 76–77, 79, 83, 85, 87, 93
Social Democracy Party (Sosyal Demo-krasi Partisi, SODEP), 84
Social Democratic Populist Party (Sosyal
Demokratik Halkçı Parti, SHP), 24n1, 25n11, 64, 76–77, 80n13, 84, 88, 95n17 Somer, Murat, 89–90
southeastern Anatolia, 53
Southeastern Anatolian Project (Güney-dog˘u Anadolu Projesi, GAP), 53 State Institute of Statistics (SIS), 33,
38n14, 38n21, 70, 111–12, 136 stationarity, 106, 107, 113, 127n4, 128n6,
128n17, 128n22 nonstationary data, 106 Sunni religiosity
See under social cleavages
Sunnis
devout, 65, 73, 87, 94
Supreme Election Board (Yüksek Seçim Kurulu), 33, 38n18, 38n22 Susurluk affair, 56n5 S¸eker, Murat, 23, 69, 81n19 s¸eyh, 95n11 tarikat, 69 Tekeli, S¸irkin, 45n9 Toprak, Binnaz, 80n14 Tosun, Tanju, 21, 136n4 trade unions, 42, 118
True Path Party (Dog˘ru Yol Partisi, DYP), 24n1, 24n11, 46n12, 84, 129n28 Tuncer, Bülent, 90
Tuncer, Erol, 38n15, 38n17, 40, 45n9, 46n11, 90, 95n21
Turan, Ali, 136n4
Turkish Grand National Assembly (Türkiye Büyük Millet Meclisi, TBMM), 43
Turkish Labor Party (Türkiye I˙s¸çi Partisi, TI˙P), 24n3, 44, 74, 75, 86
Turkish Union Party (Türkiye Birlik Partisi, TBP), 75
Türkes¸, Alparslan, 94n4, 95n13 Tüzün, Sezgin, 21, 24n10 underemployment, 112, 128n17 unemployment, 110–12
Union of Chambers and Exchanges, 57n12, 87
166 INDEX
unit-root test, 106–7
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, 106–7, 113, 127n2, 128n6 universal suffrage, 39, 40, 45 urbanization, 52, 57n11, 110 values, 9, 13–15, 16n18, 23, 25n18, 27, 31, 33, 38n11, 60, 68, 86, 109, 113, 122–24, 127n2, 136n1
materialism and pospmaterialism, 13– 14, 17n19, 31
value change, 10, 13, 17n19, 38n9 Village Innventory Survey, 70–71 Virtue Party (Fazilet Partisi, FP), 74, 77,
88, 91, 93
vote swing, 6, 9, 28–29, 73–75, 80n6, 105– 7, 116, 117–18, 120, 122–27, 129n30 voter registration, 33–34, 37, 38n15, 38n16
double registration in, 33–34, 37 irregularities in, 33–34, 37 law for, 33
population of voting age, 34, 37 registered voters, 34, 37, 38n22 voter transfers, 34
voter turnout, 20–21, 33, 47–56 national, 48, 50–51, 53, 55
party competition and, 40, 47, 54–56, 135
single-party dominance and, 54, 56 socioeconomic development and, 22, 47,
50–52, 54–55, 56n8, 56n9, 57n11 urban-rural difference in, 20, 53, 56 votes invalid, 49, 55, 56n4 voting autonomous, 47, 50, 54–56 compulsory, 48–49, 52, 53, 55–56 mobilized, 21, 23, 47, 50, 52, 54–55, 56, 56n6
retrospective. See retrospective voting unusual voting in villages, 20 voting patterns
provincial, 59, 60
Welfare Party (Refah Partisi, RP), 24n10, 25n11, 46n12, 64, 74, 77, 81n16, 87–88, 91, 93, 125, 129n28 Winrow, Gareth, 90 Yalçın, Soner, 87 Yavuz, Hakan, 95n12 Yazıcı, 87 Yeldan, Erinç, 113 Yıldırım, Nuri, 22, 95n19 Yücekök, Ahmet, 20, 48, 69, 86
