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THE GOAL OF SUSTA NABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENV RONMENTAL KUZNETS CUEVES

MASAAKI ABE

1.I NTRODUCT ON

Whatdoessustainabledevelopmentmean?Therearemanydefinitionsofsustainable development,buttheyareoftenincompatiblewitheachother.Attheriskof oversimplification,wecandistinguishtwobroadideologicalgroupsinenvironmentalism.

Onegrouppursuesexpansionofconsumptionforeconomicgrowth,andtheothergroup aimstolimitconsumptionforconservationofenvironment.Theresulttopulltoopposite directiensfromeachotherisnochange.Thatiswhywearenotabletoprogressto

sustainabledevelopment.

Weneedtofindoutthegoalofsustainabledevelopment.Todiscussthegoalasa wholeisbeyondthispaper.Weadvanceanargumentfocusingoneconomicgrowth.Some peopleregardsustainabledevelopmentascontinuouseconomicgrowth.Theotherpeople arguesteady- stateeconomyisnecessaryforsustainabledevelopment.Therearesome people,moreover,whothinkreductionsinthescaleofeconomyarerequiredfor sustainabledevelopment.Whichpositionisright?ShouldwepursueeternalGDPgrowth ornot?

Thepurposeofthispaperistofindoutthegoalofsustainabledevelopmentwith focusingtoGDPgrowth.Themostpublicizeddefinitionofsustainabilityisthatofthe WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopment(WCED) (the Brundtland Commission ,1987).TheCommissiondefinedsustainabledevelopmentas:development thatmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerations tomeettheirownneeds(WCED,1987p.43).Mostpeoplemayagreewiththisdefinition.

Butitisnotclearhowtoachievethis.Therefore,wewillconsiderthatwhatsustainable developmentmeansintermsofeconomicgrowthinthispaper.Someconditionsof sustainabledevelopmentthatemergesfromthispaperareasfollows:1.Abundant renewableresources.2.Smallestrangementbetweenrichandpoorcountries.3.Elastic resourcepriceoftheamountofresources.

Thispaperisorganizedinfoursections.Firstofallweshedlightonthearguments forandagainstlimitstogrowthinordertofindoutthegoalofsustainabledevelopment focusingoneconomicgrowthinchapter2.Thisisthemainpurposeofthispaper.Butwe 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 112277

『新潟産業大学経済学部紀要』第30号,2006年1月

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cannotgetaclearconclusionfromthesearguments.Thereforewediscussthearguments ofweakandstrongsustainabilityinordertoconsiderthesustainabilityfocusingon theoryinchapter3.AndwealsodiscusstheargumentsofenvironmentalKuznets curvesinordertoconsiderthesustainabilityfocusingonempiricalstudyinchapter4.

Thenweanalyzeadynamicgrowthmodelofasmallcountryeconomyinordertofind outtheconditionsofsustainabledevelopmentinchapter5.

2.PRO- GROWTH VERSUS ANT I- GROWTH

Thefeaturesoftheanti-growthapproachareasfollows:therearebiophysical limitstotheexpansionoftheeconomyifthatexpansioninvolvesmorewastebeing disposedoftoafiniteenvironment.

ThetermlimitstogrowthitselfwasthetitleofabookbyDonellaandDennis MeadowsandateamfromtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT) .Forthe Meadowsteamthelimitswereecologicallimits,andtheyappliedtoeconomicgrowth,

understoodasgrowthinproductionasmeasuredbyGNP,whichtheyassumedimp lied asimilarincreaseintheconsumptionofresources.Theyconcluded:Themostprobable result(ofreachingthelimitstogrowth)willbearathersuddenanduncontrollable declineinbothpopulationandindustrialcapacity(Meadows etal.1974).

Whilethelimitstogrowththesishadthegeneralpublicresponse,economistsand otherscientistswerequicktoseektodiscreditit.Twoofthemostcomprehensive rebuttalscamefromateamatSussexUniversitysSciencePolicyResearchUnit(Co le etal.1973),andfromWilliamNordhaus(1973).Theycriticizedtherelationshipsin Meadowsmodel,theassumptionsonwhichthemodelwasbasedandtheemphasison purelyphysicalparameters.

Onthebasisoftheircritique,Coleetal.ReranMeadowsmodelwithdifferent assumptionsandproducedquitedifferentresults.Thiswasalsonotapriorisurprising becausethekeyassumptiontheyreplacedwasthatofabsolutelimitsbyintroducing ongoingexponentialincreasesinavailableresources(through discoveryandrecycling)

andtheabilitytocontrolpollution.

Nordhaus(1973)alsoreranthemodelwithdifferentassumptions,re- specifyingthe modelspopulationbehaviouranditssavingsassumption,andintroducingtechnological changeandsubstitutionpossibilities.Allthechangesinassumptionsdramatically changedthebehaviourofthemodel,withtheintroductionoftechnicalchangeand sustainabilityhavingthegreatesteffect,eithersignificantlypostponingthemodels overshootandcollapsetrajectoryorconvertingitintooneofcontinuallyincreasing consumption.

Lecomber(1975)admirablyexpressesthedifferencebetweenresourceoptimists,

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suchasNordhausandColeetal.andpessimistssuchastheMeadowsteam.Heidentified thethreekeyeffectsthatcanreducedepletionorpollution:changesincompositionof output;substitutionbetweenfactorinputs;andtechnicalprogress(mor eefficientuseof thesameinput).Ifthesethreeeffectsadduptoashiftawayfromthelimitingresource orpollutantequaltoorgreaterthantherateofgrowth,thenthelimitstogrowthare putbackindefinitely.Lecomber(1975)alsopointedasfollows:

Everythinghingesontherateoftechnologicalprogressandpossibilitiesof substitution.Thisisperhapsthemainissuethatseparatesresourceoptimists andresourcepessimists.Theoptimistbelievesinthepowerofhumaninventiveness tosolvewhateverproblemsarethrowninitsway,asapparentlyithasdonein thepast.Thepessimistquestionsthesuccessofthesepasttechnologicalsolutions andfearsthatfutureproblemsmaybemoreintractable.

Whateverthepotentialoftechnologicalchange,therearecertainphysicalconstraints,

definedbythelawsofthermodynamics,thatcannotbecircumvented.ThesecondLaw- thatallactivityandtransformationofenergyormaterialsleadstoanincreaseofentropy- hasbeenmostextensivelyrelatedtoeconomicsbyGeorgescu- Roegen(1971)

Inthisanalysisitistheincreaseofentropythatistheultimatelimittogrowth.

Economicactivityincreasesentropybydepletingresourcesandproducingwastes.

Entropyonearthcanonlybedecreasedbyimpor tinglowentropyresources(so larenergy)

fromoutsideit.Growthinphysicalproductionandthroughputthatisnotbasedonsolar energymustincreaseentropyandmakeenvironmentalproblemsworse,implyingan eventuallimittosuchgrowth.Therefore,GNPcanfreeitselffromtheselimitsonlyto theextentthatitdecouplesitselffromgrowthinphysicalproduction.Aswillbe seenlatersection,suchdecouplinghasoccurredtosomeextent,buttheentropylaw decreesthatitcanneverbecomplete.Optimistsbelievethatthedecouplingcanbe substantialandcontinuousbutpessimistsaremoreskeptical.Thisargumentcanbe relatedtotheargumentofEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves .Theexistenceof environmentalKuznetsCurvesiscrucialforthisargument.Therefore,wewillseethe argumentofenvironmentalKuznetsCurvesatnextchapter.

Thereareanotherargumentsoflimitstogrowth.K.W.Kappwhomadethefirst explorationofthesocialcostsofthegrowthprocess(Kapp 1950),butitwasMishan

(1967,1977)whofirstbroughtthesecoststowidespreadpublicnotice.Mishan(1977)said thattheupwardmovementintheindicatorsofsocialdisintegration- divorce,suicide,

delinquency,pettytheft,drugtaking,sexualdeviance,crimeandviolence-hasnever falteredoverthelasttwodecades .ItisMishansthesisthattheseandotherilleffects aretheresultsofeconomicgrowthandfaroutweighitsbenefits.

新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 129

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Theecologistsconcernwaswiththephysicallimitstoeconomicgrowth.Mishans focusisonthelimitstosocialwelfarethatcanbederivedfromgrowth.Hirschaddsto thepicturebypostulatingsociallimitstogrowth.Hirschssociallimitsderivefromtwo causes:theincreasingimportanceofpositionalgoods;andthebreakdownofindividual moralityinanaffluent,growingeconomy.Thepositionaleconomyrelatestoallaspects ofgoods,services,workpositions,andothersocialrelationshipsthatareeitherscarce insomeabsoluteorsociallyimposedsenseorsubjecttocongestionorcrowdingthrough moreextensiveuse(Hi rsch1976).Asincomesrise,thedemandforpositionalgoods increases;withfixedorveryinelasticsupply,thegoodsareeitherrationedthroughprice

(e.g.desirableresortproperties)orcriteriaofeligibility(e. g.morestringent examinations)ortheirqualityisdegradedthroughovercrowding(e. g.roads).Theeffect iseithertoreducegrowth,orthewelfaretobederivedfromitorboth.

The1970sgrowthinenvironmentalismwascloselyassociatedwithanti- growth . Butthe1970slimitstogrowthcritiques,bothphysicalandsocial,failedtodentthe socialconsensusinfavorofeconomicgrowth,sothatbythetimetheBrundtland Commissionproduceditsreport,OurCommonFuture(WCED 1987),onenvironmentand development,theemphasiswasplacedonaperceivedcomplementaritybetweengrowth andenvironment.Inherintroductiontothereport,MrsBrundtlandcallsforanewera ofeconomicgrowth-growththatisforcefulandatthesametimesociallyand environmentallysustainable(WCED 1987:).

Thisbullishattitudewasjustifiedbystatistics,whichshowedthatovertheperiod 1972- 86therelationshipbetweenenergyuseandeconomicgrowthinindustrialcountries hadundergoneasignificantchangefromthebroadlyproportionalrelationthathad pertainedbefore.IntheUS,energyintensity(the amountofenergyusedperunitof GDP)from1973- 86diminishedby25percent.OvertheOECDasawhole,itfellby20 percentfrom1973- 85.IthesameperiodforcountriesbelongingtotheInternational EnergyAgency,GDPgrewbynearly32percent,butenergyuseonlyby5percent

(WRI1990:146).Adecouplingofeconomicgrowthfromenergyconsumptionwas proclaimed.

Inanevenmoreoptimistictwisttothisdebate,Bernstam(1991)postulates thatindustrializationunderfreemarketconditionsexhibitsacharacteristic relationshipbetweenoutputandtheenvironment,asfollows.Intheearlydaysthereis anegativetrade- offattheexpenseoftheenvironment.Thiseffectdiminishesas industrializationproceedsand,atacertainhistoricalmoment,thereisapositive relationshipbetweenthetwo.Atthispointeconomicgrowthcanreducepollution

ifitincreasestheproductivityofresources(tha tis,reduceswastes)fasterthanboth resourceoutputandpopulationgrowth .

Thisassertionremainsatthelevelofpureconjecture.Infact,itisflatlycontradicted 130

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bytrendsinenergyusesince1986.USenergyintensityactuallyincreased(tha tis,more energywasusedperunitofGDP)in1987and1988,asdidthatofseveralEuropean countries(WRI 1990:146).Theoverallconclusionofwhichisthatthereisnoevidence that,overaprolongedperiod,Bernstam sconditionforgrowthtoreduceoverall environmentalimpactsisbeingmet.

Beckerman(1992),arguingforeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries,adoptsthe samelineofargumentasBernstam(1991)withanintriguingdifference.Beckermans thesiswasthatcontinuingeconomicgrowthinindustrialcountrieswouldreducetheir contributiontoglobalpollution,whichwouldgosomewaytowardscompensatingforthe inevitableriseinpollutionfromgrowthindevelopingcountries.Beckermancontends thatitisdevelopingcountriesthatneedeconomicgrowthtoimprovetheirenvironments,

atleastinimportantareassuchasaccesstodrinkingwater,sanitationandairquality.

Heconcludes:Inthelongerrun,thesurestwaytoimproveyourenvironmentisto becomerich(Becke rman1992:491).

Acomparisonbetweentheattitudesofthe1970sandthe1990sshowsthatthe resourcepessimistsconclusionsareessentiallyunchanged,but,withtheexceptionof theBernstamBeckermanviews,therehasbeenasignificantshiftinthemainstream resourceoptimistspositionsincethe1970s.Nowthebroadconclusionofthemainstream optimistsisthatenvironmentalproblemsarerealandthreateningandthattobereconciled

withcontinuingeconomicexpansionactivepolicywillberequired.

Ontheotherhand,anti- growthviewhasresurfacedinrecentyears.HermanDaly isperhapsoneofthebestknownexponentsoftheviewthattherearebiophysicallimits andthateconomicsystemshavetobereorganizedandmanagedsoastoreflectthose limits(Da ly1991).Heobservesthatmacroeconomicslacksaconceptofoptimalscale , incontrasttomicroeconomics,whichspendssignificantamountsoftimeanalyzingthe optimalsizeofafirm.Macroeconomicsystemsareasub- componentofamuchlargeset ofecosystems.ByscaleDalymeansthevolumeofresourcespercapitamultipliedby thesizeofthepopulation.

Barbier(1987)hassuggestedthatsustainabledevelopmentshouldbeviewedasan interactionbetweenthreesystems,thebiological,economicandsocialsystems.The generalobjectiveofsustainableeconomicdevelopment,then,istomaximizethegoals acrossallthesesystemsthroughanadaptiveprocessoftrade- offs(ibid.:104).The multi- dimensionalityofobjectivesembracedbysustainabledevelopmenthasresultedin itcomingtomeandifferentthingstodifferentpeople.By1989Pearceetal.wereableto citeagalleryofdefinitions(Pear ceetal.1989:173- 85),whichby1993couldhavebeen muchextended.Suchdiversityofmeaningclearlymilitatesagainstclarityofdiscourse.

Theweaknessesinconceptualizationhaveaddedtotheconfusionconcerningthe growthsustainabilityrelationship.Thedebateoflimitstogrowthhasbeenlefthanging 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 131

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intheair.Wehaventhadtheanswerevenforwhethertherearelimitstogrowthornot.

Oneofthemostimpor tantjudgerforthisquestionisEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves.If decouplingbetweeneconomicgrowthandenvironmentdegradationispossible,wedon tneedanti- growth.

BeforeseeingtheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves,weneedtoseetheargumentof basictheoryofsustainabilityinordertoknowthebackgroundoftheargumentsofthe EnvironmentalKuznetsCurves.Thereforewewillseetheargumentsofweakandstrong sustainabilityatnextchapter.Then,wewillseeargumentsofEnvironmentalKuznets Curves.

3.WEAK VERSUS STRONG SUSTA NAB TY

Wearguedaboutpro- growthandanti- growthastwomainviewofsustainable developmentinchapter2.Theconceptofsustainabledevelopmentcanalsobedividedin twoaspectsinanotherway.Inthissection,wewillargueaboutweakandstrong sustainabilitybeforetheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves.Theargumentsofthissection arebasedon Blueprint(Pearce etal.2000:23- 29)andEconomicGrowthand environmentalSustainability(Ek ins.2000).

ThemaindifferenceofWeakandStrongsustainabilityiswhethernaturalcapital hasauniqueoressentialroleinsustaininghumanwelfare,andthuswhetherspecial compensationrulesarerequiredtoensurethatfuturegenerationsarenotmadeworseoff bynaturalcapitaldepletiontoday.

Accordingtotheweaksustainabilityview,thereisessentiallynoinherentdifference betweennaturalandotherformofcapital,andhencethesameoptimaldepletionrules oughttoapplytoboth.Aslongasthenaturalcapitalthatisbeingdepletedisreplaced withevenmorevaluablephysicalandhumancapital,thenthevalueoftheaggregate stock- comprisinghuman,physicalandtheremainingnaturalcapital- isincreasingover time.Maintainingandenhancingthetotalstockofallcapitalaloneissufficienttoattain sustainabledevelopment.

Incontrast,proponentsofthestrongsustainabilityviewarguethatphysicalor humancapitalcannotsubstituteforalltheenvironmentalresourcescomprisingthe naturalcapitalstockoralloftheecologicalservicesperformedbynature.Essentially,

thisviewquestionswhether,ontheonehand,humanandphysicalcapital,andonthe other,naturalcapital,effectivelycompriseasinglehomogeneoustotalcapitalstock.

Uncertaintyovermanyenvironmentalvalues,inparticularthevaluethatfuture generationsmayplaceonincreasinglyscarcenaturalresourcesandecologicalservices,

furtherlimitsourabilitytodeterminewhetherwecanadequatelycompensatefuture generationsforirreversiblelossesinessentialnaturalcapitaltoday.Thusthestrong

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sustainabilityviewsuggeststhatenvironmentalresourcesandecologicalservicesthat areessentialforhumanwelfareandcannotbeeasilysubstitutedbyhumanandphysical capitalshouldbeprotectedandnotdepleted.Maintainingorincreasingthevalueofthe totalcapitalstockovertimeinturnrequireskeepingthenon- substitutableandessential componentsofnaturalcapitalconstantovertime.

Thereisthentheissueastowhetheritisthetotalstockofcapitalthatmustbe maintained,withsubstitutionallowedbetweenvariouspartsofit,orwhethercertain componentsofcapital,particularlynaturalcapital,arenon- substitutable,i.e.they contributetowelfareinauniquewaythatcannotbereplicatedbyanothercapital component.Turner(1993:9- 15)identifiesfourdifferentkindsofsustainability,ranging fromveryweak,whichassumescompletesubstitutability,toverystrong,which assumesnosubstitutabilitysothatallnaturalcapitalmustbeconserved.Theassumption oftheformerisimplicitintheso- calledHartwickrule(Har twick1977),namelythat,

providedthattheresourcerentsfromtheexploitationofexhaustibleresourcesare investedinmanufacturedcapital,percapitaconsumptioncanremainconstant indefinitelyovertime.Verystrongsustainabilityhasbeencalledabsurdlystrong sustainability(Da ly1995:49)inordertodismissitfrompracticalconsideration.

Turnersmoreinterestingintermediatecategoriesare:

・Weakenvironmentalsustainability,whichderivesfromaperceptionthatwelfare isnotnormallydependentonspecificformofcapitalandcanbemaintainedby substitutingmanufacturedfornaturalcapital,thoughwithexceptions.

・Strongsustainability,whichderiversfromadifferentperceptionthat substitutabilityofmanufacturedfornaturalcapitalisseriouslylimitedbysuch environmentalcharacteristicsasirreversibility,uncertaintyandtheexistenceof criticalcomponentsofnaturalcapital,whichmakeauniquecontributionto welfare.Anevengreaterimportanceisplacedonnaturalcapitalbythosewho regarditinmanyinstancesasacomplementtoman- madecapital(Da ly1992:27)

Thepointatissueiswhichperceptionmostvalidlydescribesreality.Resolvingthis pointshouldbeanempiricalratherthanatheoreticalorideologicalmatter.The assumptionunderlyingweaksustainabilityisthatthereisnoessentialdifferencebetween differentformsofcapital,orbetweenthekindsofwelfare,whichtheygenerate.Onthe otherhand,thestrongsustainabilitykeepsnaturalcapitaldistinctfromotherkindsof capital,itcanexaminenaturalcapitalsparticularcontributiontowelfare,distinguishing betweenitscontributiontoproduction(through resource- provisionandwaste-  absorption)anditsservicesthatgeneratewelfaredirectly.Theexaminationmayreveal thatinsomecasesthewelfarederivedfromnaturalcapitalisfullycommensurablewith 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 133

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otherwelfarefromproductionandcanbeexpressedinmonetaryform,sothatinthese casessubstitutabilitywithotherformsofproductivecapitalexists,andtheweak sustainabilityconditionofanon- decliningaggregatecapitalstockIsufficientto maintainwelfare.Inothercasetheoutcomeoftheexaminationmaybedifferent.The importantpointisthat,startingfromastrongsustainabilityassumptionofnon-  substitutabilityingeneral,itispossibletoshifttoweaksustainabilitypositionwhere thatisshowntobeappropriate.Butstartingfromaweaksustainabilityassumption permitsnosuchinsightstoenableexceptionstobeidentified.Thereforestrong sustainabilityseemstobeadequateasaprioriposition.

Thereareothertheoreticalreasonsforchoosingthestrongsustainabilityassumption.

Victor(1991:210- 11)notesthatthereisrecognitionineconomicsgoingbacktoMarshal thatmanufacturedcapitalisfundamentallydifferentfromenvironmentalresources.The formerishuman- madeandreproducibleinthequantitiesdesired,thelatteristhefree giftofnatureand,inmanycategories,isinfixedorlimitedsupply.Thedestructionof manufacturedcapitalisveryrarelyirreversible(th iswouldonlyoccurifthehuman capital,orknowledge,thatcreatedthemanufacturedcapitalhadalsobeenlost),but irreversibility,withsucheffectsasspeciesextinction,climatechange,oreventhe combustionoffossilfuels,iscommonintheconsumptionofnaturalcapital.Moreover,

totheextentthatmanufacturedcapitalrequiresnaturalcapitalforitsproduction,itcan neverbeacompletesubstituteforresources.

Victoretal.(1995:206)identifytheelementsofnaturalcapitalthatareessentialfor lifeasweknowitaswater,air,minerals,energy,spaceandgeneticmaterials,to whichmightbeaddedthestratosphericozonelayerandtherelationshipsandinteractions betweentheseelementsthatsustainecosystemsandthebiosphere.Somesubstitutionof theseessentialelementsbymanufacturedandhumancapitalcanbeimag ined,buttheir wholesubstitutability,asassumedbyweaksustainability,appearsimprobab le,certainly withpresentknowledgeandtechnologies.Infact,iftheprocessofindustrialisationis viewedastheapplicationofhuman,socialandmanufacturedcapitaltonaturalcapitalto transformitintomorehumanandmanufacturedcapital,thenitispossibletoview currentenvironmentalproblemsasevidencethatsuchsubstitutabilityisnotcomplete.

Ifourcurrentdevelopmentisunsustainable,itisbecauseitisdepletingsomecritical,

non- substitutablecomponentsofthecapitalbaseonwhichitdepends.Criticalnatural capitalmaythenbedefinedasnaturalcapitalwhichisresponsibleforimportant environmentalfunctionsandwhichcannotbesubstitutedintheprovisionofthese functionsbymanufacturedcapital.

Thedifferencebetweenweakandstrongsustainabilityisimpor tanttotheargument aboutthecompatibilityofsustainabilityandGDPgrowth.Ingeneral,itmaybesaidthat productionforGDPgrowthisgeneratedbytransformingenergyandmaterialsfromthe

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naturalenvironmentintohuman- madegoodsandservices.Fewerenvironmentalgoods canbepermanentlytransformedintohuman- madecapitalunderstrongsustainability thanundertheweakversion.Thereforestrongsustainabilityprinciplewouldmakethe generationofGDPmoredifficult.Thefewerthesubstitutionpossibilitiesallowed,the

morestringenttheconditionsforthecompatibilityofsustainabilityandGDPgrowth.

Recentextensionstotheeconomictheoryofsustainabledevelopmenthavenotso muchresolvedthisdebateassharpeneditsfocus.Weneedtoseeargumentsofempirical matterforcomingclosetotheanswer.Therefore,wewillseeargumentsof environmentalKuznetscurvesatnextchapter.

4.ENV RONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVES

Therehasbeenalotofresearchintherecentyearsderivingeconometricrelationship betweenincomeandvariousindicatorsofenvironmentalquality.Awidevarietyof resultshasbeenobtained,includingforsomeenvironmentalindicatorsaninverseU-  relationship,whereenvironmentaldegradationisseentoincreaseatlowincomes,reach apeakandthenimprove asincomeincreasesbeyondthisthreshold.Thispatternis describedasanenvironmentalKuznetscurve(EKC) ,followingtheobservationby Kuznets(1955)thatitappearedtodescribetherelationshipbetweenthelevelofincome andincomeinequality.Figure1showsatypicalEKCestimatedforsulphurdioxide

).OneimportantinterpretationofsuchEKCrelationshipisthatgeneraleconomic developmentwilltakecareoftheenvironmentautomatically.

Source:PearceandBarbier,2000

Figure1.AnEnvironmentalKuznetsCurveforSulphurDioxide

新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 135

$GNP per capita kg SO per capita

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TheabovecurveistheenvironmentalKuznetscurveforestimatedacrossrichand poorcountriesoftheworldbyPanayotou(1995).Thepeakorturningpointlevelofper capitaincomewhereenvironmentaldegradationstartstofallisaboutUS$5,000.

TheobservationoftheEKCforsomeenvironmentalindicatorshasledtovarietyof conclusionsfromtheresearchersandothersabouttheoverallgrowth- environment relationship,suchas:

WefindthatwhileincreasesinGDPmaybeassociatedwithworsening environmentalconditionsinverypoorcountries,airandwaterqualityappearsto benefitfromeconomicgrowthoncesomecriticallevelofincomehasbeenreached.

(GrossmanandKrueger1994:18- 19)

Theevidencesuggeststhatitispossibletogrowoutofsomeenvironmental problems.

(ShafikandBandyopadhyay1992:23)

Wehavefound,throughanexaminationofair- qualitymeasuresinacross- section ocountries,thateconomicgrowthtendtoalleviatepollutionproblemsoncea countryspercapitaincomereachesabout$4,000to$5,000USdollars.

(GrossmanandKrueger1991:35- 6)

Environmentaldegradationoverall(comb inedresourcedepletionandpollution)is worseatlevelsofincomepercapitaunder$1,000.Between$1,000and$3,000,

boththeeconomyandenvironmentaldegradationundergodramaticstructural changefromruraltourban,fromagriculturaltoindustrial.Asecondstructural transformationbeginstotakeplaceascountriessurpassapercapitaincomeof

$10,000andbegintoshiftfromenergyintensiveheavyindustryintoservicesand information- technoligyintensiveindustry.

(Panayotou1993:14)

TheinvertedU- shapeisconsistentwithascenarioinwhichindustrialdevelopment initiallyleadstogreaterrawemissionsofthesepollutants,butnetemissions eventuallydeclineastheincreaseinincomeenvironmentalquality…(Th is literature)raisesthetantalizingpossibilitythatinsteadoftherebeingatrade- off betweengreenhousegasesandeconomicgrowth,fastergrowthcouldserveaspart ofthesolutiontotheworldwideemissionsdilemma.

(Holtz- EakinandSelden1992:3)

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Growthpromotingliberalizationoftradewilloftenleadtoimproved environmental standards.

(Radetzki1992:134)

Thesearestrongconclusions.Theycreatetheimpre ssionthateconomicgrowthandthe environmentarenotonlyinconflict(the formerisnecessarytoimprove thelatter).This conclusionturnsthelimitstogrowthargumentasfollows.Insteadoftheenvironment settinglimitstogrowth,theseconclusionssuggestthatgrowthisarequirementof environmentalimprovement.

Panayotou(1993)givesthemostunequivocalexpressiontotheconclusionsthatcan bedrawnfromageneralacceptanceofanEKCrelationshipbetweengrowthand environmentalquality:

Itsuggeststhatasthedevelopmentprocesspickup,whenacertainlevelofincome percapitaisreached,economicgrowthturnsfromanenemyoftheenvironment intoafriend…Economicgrowthappearstobeapowerfulwayforimprov ing environmentalqualityindevelopingcountries…Ifeconomicgrowthisgoodfor theenvironmentthenpoliciesthatstimulategrowthsuchastradeliberalization,

economicrestructuringandpricereformoughtalsotobegoodfortheenvironment.

Thisinturnwouldtendtosuggestthattheenvironmentneedsnoparticular attention,eitherintermofdomesticenvironmentalpolicyorinternationalpressure orassistance;resourcescanbestbefocusedonachievingrapideconomicgrowthto movequicklythroughtheenvironmentallyunfavourablestageofdevelopmentto theenvironmentallyfavourablerangeoftheKuznetscurve.

(Panayotou1993:14)

Takentoextremes,wedonothavetoregardtheenvironmentasanythingspecial.

Aspeoplegetrichertheywillincreasetheirdemandfortheenvironmentandimprove it,

initiallywithpublichealthlegislation,thencleanair,thenconservationgenerally.

Fromthisview,wedontneedanti- growth.Allweneedforenvironmentistopursue theeconomicgrowth.

Butitisstillnotclearthatweunderstandfullythesecriticalrelationships.For example,manyoftheoriginalexplanationsoftheEKChypothesisfocusedonchangesin thecompositionofgoodsandservicesduetostructuralshiftsintheeconomy,the efficiencyofresourceuse,thecompositionofinputsandtechnologicalinnovation.

However,ithasincreasinglybeenrecognizedthattheeffectsofsuchchangeson environment- incomelinkarenotexogenousprocesses- determinedbyfactorsoutside theeconomy- butareinfluencedbypolicychoices(Panayo tou1995;Sternetal1996; 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 137

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