THE GOAL OF SUSTA I NABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENV I RONMENTAL KUZNETS CUEVES
MASAAKI ABE
1.I NTRODUCT I ON
Whatdoessustainabledevelopmentmean?Therearemanydefinitionsofsustainable development,buttheyareoftenincompatiblewitheachother.Attheriskof oversimplification,wecandistinguishtwobroadideologicalgroupsinenvironmentalism.
Onegrouppursuesexpansionofconsumptionforeconomicgrowth,andtheothergroup aimstolimitconsumptionforconservationofenvironment.Theresulttopulltoopposite directiensfromeachotherisnochange.Thatiswhywearenotabletoprogressto
sustainabledevelopment.
Weneedtofindoutthegoalofsustainabledevelopment.Todiscussthegoalasa wholeisbeyondthispaper.Weadvanceanargumentfocusingoneconomicgrowth.Some peopleregardsustainabledevelopmentascontinuouseconomicgrowth.Theotherpeople arguesteady- stateeconomyisnecessaryforsustainabledevelopment.Therearesome people,moreover,whothinkreductionsinthescaleofeconomyarerequiredfor sustainabledevelopment.Whichpositionisright?ShouldwepursueeternalGDPgrowth ornot?
Thepurposeofthispaperistofindoutthegoalofsustainabledevelopmentwith focusingtoGDPgrowth.Themostpublicizeddefinitionofsustainabilityisthatofthe WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopment(WCED) (the Brundtland Commission ,1987).TheCommissiondefinedsustainabledevelopmentas:development thatmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerations tomeettheirownneeds(WCED,1987p.43).Mostpeoplemayagreewiththisdefinition.
Butitisnotclearhowtoachievethis.Therefore,wewillconsiderthatwhatsustainable developmentmeansintermsofeconomicgrowthinthispaper.Someconditionsof sustainabledevelopmentthatemergesfromthispaperareasfollows:1.Abundant renewableresources.2.Smallestrangementbetweenrichandpoorcountries.3.Elastic resourcepriceoftheamountofresources.
Thispaperisorganizedinfoursections.Firstofallweshedlightonthearguments forandagainstlimitstogrowthinordertofindoutthegoalofsustainabledevelopment focusingoneconomicgrowthinchapter2.Thisisthemainpurposeofthispaper.Butwe 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 112277
『新潟産業大学経済学部紀要』第30号,2006年1月
cannotgetaclearconclusionfromthesearguments.Thereforewediscussthearguments ofweakandstrongsustainabilityinordertoconsiderthesustainabilityfocusingon theoryinchapter3.AndwealsodiscusstheargumentsofenvironmentalKuznets curvesinordertoconsiderthesustainabilityfocusingonempiricalstudyinchapter4.
Thenweanalyzeadynamicgrowthmodelofasmallcountryeconomyinordertofind outtheconditionsofsustainabledevelopmentinchapter5.
2.PRO- GROWTH VERSUS ANT I- GROWTH
Thefeaturesoftheanti-growthapproachareasfollows:therearebiophysical limitstotheexpansionoftheeconomyifthatexpansioninvolvesmorewastebeing disposedoftoafiniteenvironment.
ThetermlimitstogrowthitselfwasthetitleofabookbyDonellaandDennis MeadowsandateamfromtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT) .Forthe Meadowsteamthelimitswereecologicallimits,andtheyappliedtoeconomicgrowth,
understoodasgrowthinproductionasmeasuredbyGNP,whichtheyassumedimp lied asimilarincreaseintheconsumptionofresources.Theyconcluded:Themostprobable result(ofreachingthelimitstogrowth)willbearathersuddenanduncontrollable declineinbothpopulationandindustrialcapacity(Meadows etal.1974).
Whilethelimitstogrowththesishadthegeneralpublicresponse,economistsand otherscientistswerequicktoseektodiscreditit.Twoofthemostcomprehensive rebuttalscamefromateamatSussexUniversitysSciencePolicyResearchUnit(Co le etal.1973),andfromWilliamNordhaus(1973).Theycriticizedtherelationshipsin Meadowsmodel,theassumptionsonwhichthemodelwasbasedandtheemphasison purelyphysicalparameters.
Onthebasisoftheircritique,Coleetal.ReranMeadowsmodelwithdifferent assumptionsandproducedquitedifferentresults.Thiswasalsonotapriorisurprising becausethekeyassumptiontheyreplacedwasthatofabsolutelimitsbyintroducing ongoingexponentialincreasesinavailableresources(through discoveryandrecycling)
andtheabilitytocontrolpollution.
Nordhaus(1973)alsoreranthemodelwithdifferentassumptions,re- specifyingthe modelspopulationbehaviouranditssavingsassumption,andintroducingtechnological changeandsubstitutionpossibilities.Allthechangesinassumptionsdramatically changedthebehaviourofthemodel,withtheintroductionoftechnicalchangeand sustainabilityhavingthegreatesteffect,eithersignificantlypostponingthemodels overshootandcollapsetrajectoryorconvertingitintooneofcontinuallyincreasing consumption.
Lecomber(1975)admirablyexpressesthedifferencebetweenresourceoptimists,
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suchasNordhausandColeetal.andpessimistssuchastheMeadowsteam.Heidentified thethreekeyeffectsthatcanreducedepletionorpollution:changesincompositionof output;substitutionbetweenfactorinputs;andtechnicalprogress(mor eefficientuseof thesameinput).Ifthesethreeeffectsadduptoashiftawayfromthelimitingresource orpollutantequaltoorgreaterthantherateofgrowth,thenthelimitstogrowthare putbackindefinitely.Lecomber(1975)alsopointedasfollows:
Everythinghingesontherateoftechnologicalprogressandpossibilitiesof substitution.Thisisperhapsthemainissuethatseparatesresourceoptimists andresourcepessimists.Theoptimistbelievesinthepowerofhumaninventiveness tosolvewhateverproblemsarethrowninitsway,asapparentlyithasdonein thepast.Thepessimistquestionsthesuccessofthesepasttechnologicalsolutions andfearsthatfutureproblemsmaybemoreintractable.
Whateverthepotentialoftechnologicalchange,therearecertainphysicalconstraints,
definedbythelawsofthermodynamics,thatcannotbecircumvented.ThesecondLaw- thatallactivityandtransformationofenergyormaterialsleadstoanincreaseofentropy- hasbeenmostextensivelyrelatedtoeconomicsbyGeorgescu- Roegen(1971)
Inthisanalysisitistheincreaseofentropythatistheultimatelimittogrowth.
Economicactivityincreasesentropybydepletingresourcesandproducingwastes.
Entropyonearthcanonlybedecreasedbyimpor tinglowentropyresources(so larenergy)
fromoutsideit.Growthinphysicalproductionandthroughputthatisnotbasedonsolar energymustincreaseentropyandmakeenvironmentalproblemsworse,implyingan eventuallimittosuchgrowth.Therefore,GNPcanfreeitselffromtheselimitsonlyto theextentthatitdecouplesitselffromgrowthinphysicalproduction.Aswillbe seenlatersection,suchdecouplinghasoccurredtosomeextent,buttheentropylaw decreesthatitcanneverbecomplete.Optimistsbelievethatthedecouplingcanbe substantialandcontinuousbutpessimistsaremoreskeptical.Thisargumentcanbe relatedtotheargumentofEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves .Theexistenceof environmentalKuznetsCurvesiscrucialforthisargument.Therefore,wewillseethe argumentofenvironmentalKuznetsCurvesatnextchapter.
Thereareanotherargumentsoflimitstogrowth.K.W.Kappwhomadethefirst explorationofthesocialcostsofthegrowthprocess(Kapp 1950),butitwasMishan
(1967,1977)whofirstbroughtthesecoststowidespreadpublicnotice.Mishan(1977)said thattheupwardmovementintheindicatorsofsocialdisintegration- divorce,suicide,
delinquency,pettytheft,drugtaking,sexualdeviance,crimeandviolence-hasnever falteredoverthelasttwodecades .ItisMishansthesisthattheseandotherilleffects aretheresultsofeconomicgrowthandfaroutweighitsbenefits.
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Theecologistsconcernwaswiththephysicallimitstoeconomicgrowth.Mishans focusisonthelimitstosocialwelfarethatcanbederivedfromgrowth.Hirschaddsto thepicturebypostulatingsociallimitstogrowth.Hirschssociallimitsderivefromtwo causes:theincreasingimportanceofpositionalgoods;andthebreakdownofindividual moralityinanaffluent,growingeconomy.Thepositionaleconomyrelatestoallaspects ofgoods,services,workpositions,andothersocialrelationshipsthatareeitherscarce insomeabsoluteorsociallyimposedsenseorsubjecttocongestionorcrowdingthrough moreextensiveuse(Hi rsch1976).Asincomesrise,thedemandforpositionalgoods increases;withfixedorveryinelasticsupply,thegoodsareeitherrationedthroughprice
(e.g.desirableresortproperties)orcriteriaofeligibility(e. g.morestringent examinations)ortheirqualityisdegradedthroughovercrowding(e. g.roads).Theeffect iseithertoreducegrowth,orthewelfaretobederivedfromitorboth.
The1970sgrowthinenvironmentalismwascloselyassociatedwithanti- growth . Butthe1970slimitstogrowthcritiques,bothphysicalandsocial,failedtodentthe socialconsensusinfavorofeconomicgrowth,sothatbythetimetheBrundtland Commissionproduceditsreport,OurCommonFuture(WCED 1987),onenvironmentand development,theemphasiswasplacedonaperceivedcomplementaritybetweengrowth andenvironment.Inherintroductiontothereport,MrsBrundtlandcallsforanewera ofeconomicgrowth-growththatisforcefulandatthesametimesociallyand environmentallysustainable(WCED 1987:).
Thisbullishattitudewasjustifiedbystatistics,whichshowedthatovertheperiod 1972- 86therelationshipbetweenenergyuseandeconomicgrowthinindustrialcountries hadundergoneasignificantchangefromthebroadlyproportionalrelationthathad pertainedbefore.IntheUS,energyintensity(the amountofenergyusedperunitof GDP)from1973- 86diminishedby25percent.OvertheOECDasawhole,itfellby20 percentfrom1973- 85.IthesameperiodforcountriesbelongingtotheInternational EnergyAgency,GDPgrewbynearly32percent,butenergyuseonlyby5percent
(WRI1990:146).Adecouplingofeconomicgrowthfromenergyconsumptionwas proclaimed.
Inanevenmoreoptimistictwisttothisdebate,Bernstam(1991)postulates thatindustrializationunderfreemarketconditionsexhibitsacharacteristic relationshipbetweenoutputandtheenvironment,asfollows.Intheearlydaysthereis anegativetrade- offattheexpenseoftheenvironment.Thiseffectdiminishesas industrializationproceedsand,atacertainhistoricalmoment,thereisapositive relationshipbetweenthetwo.Atthispointeconomicgrowthcanreducepollution
ifitincreasestheproductivityofresources(tha tis,reduceswastes)fasterthanboth resourceoutputandpopulationgrowth .
Thisassertionremainsatthelevelofpureconjecture.Infact,itisflatlycontradicted 130
bytrendsinenergyusesince1986.USenergyintensityactuallyincreased(tha tis,more energywasusedperunitofGDP)in1987and1988,asdidthatofseveralEuropean countries(WRI 1990:146).Theoverallconclusionofwhichisthatthereisnoevidence that,overaprolongedperiod,Bernstam sconditionforgrowthtoreduceoverall environmentalimpactsisbeingmet.
Beckerman(1992),arguingforeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries,adoptsthe samelineofargumentasBernstam(1991)withanintriguingdifference.Beckermans thesiswasthatcontinuingeconomicgrowthinindustrialcountrieswouldreducetheir contributiontoglobalpollution,whichwouldgosomewaytowardscompensatingforthe inevitableriseinpollutionfromgrowthindevelopingcountries.Beckermancontends thatitisdevelopingcountriesthatneedeconomicgrowthtoimprovetheirenvironments,
atleastinimportantareassuchasaccesstodrinkingwater,sanitationandairquality.
Heconcludes:Inthelongerrun,thesurestwaytoimproveyourenvironmentisto becomerich(Becke rman1992:491).
Acomparisonbetweentheattitudesofthe1970sandthe1990sshowsthatthe resourcepessimistsconclusionsareessentiallyunchanged,but,withtheexceptionof theBernstamBeckermanviews,therehasbeenasignificantshiftinthemainstream resourceoptimistspositionsincethe1970s.Nowthebroadconclusionofthemainstream optimistsisthatenvironmentalproblemsarerealandthreateningandthattobereconciled
withcontinuingeconomicexpansionactivepolicywillberequired.
Ontheotherhand,anti- growthviewhasresurfacedinrecentyears.HermanDaly isperhapsoneofthebestknownexponentsoftheviewthattherearebiophysicallimits andthateconomicsystemshavetobereorganizedandmanagedsoastoreflectthose limits(Da ly1991).Heobservesthatmacroeconomicslacksaconceptofoptimalscale , incontrasttomicroeconomics,whichspendssignificantamountsoftimeanalyzingthe optimalsizeofafirm.Macroeconomicsystemsareasub- componentofamuchlargeset ofecosystems.ByscaleDalymeansthevolumeofresourcespercapitamultipliedby thesizeofthepopulation.
Barbier(1987)hassuggestedthatsustainabledevelopmentshouldbeviewedasan interactionbetweenthreesystems,thebiological,economicandsocialsystems.The generalobjectiveofsustainableeconomicdevelopment,then,istomaximizethegoals acrossallthesesystemsthroughanadaptiveprocessoftrade- offs(ibid.:104).The multi- dimensionalityofobjectivesembracedbysustainabledevelopmenthasresultedin itcomingtomeandifferentthingstodifferentpeople.By1989Pearceetal.wereableto citeagalleryofdefinitions(Pear ceetal.1989:173- 85),whichby1993couldhavebeen muchextended.Suchdiversityofmeaningclearlymilitatesagainstclarityofdiscourse.
Theweaknessesinconceptualizationhaveaddedtotheconfusionconcerningthe growthsustainabilityrelationship.Thedebateoflimitstogrowthhasbeenlefthanging 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 131
intheair.Wehaventhadtheanswerevenforwhethertherearelimitstogrowthornot.
Oneofthemostimpor tantjudgerforthisquestionisEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves.If decouplingbetweeneconomicgrowthandenvironmentdegradationispossible,wedon tneedanti- growth.
BeforeseeingtheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves,weneedtoseetheargumentof basictheoryofsustainabilityinordertoknowthebackgroundoftheargumentsofthe EnvironmentalKuznetsCurves.Thereforewewillseetheargumentsofweakandstrong sustainabilityatnextchapter.Then,wewillseeargumentsofEnvironmentalKuznets Curves.
3.WEAK VERSUS STRONG SUSTA I NAB I L I TY
Wearguedaboutpro- growthandanti- growthastwomainviewofsustainable developmentinchapter2.Theconceptofsustainabledevelopmentcanalsobedividedin twoaspectsinanotherway.Inthissection,wewillargueaboutweakandstrong sustainabilitybeforetheEnvironmentalKuznetsCurves.Theargumentsofthissection arebasedon Blueprint(Pearce etal.2000:23- 29)andEconomicGrowthand environmentalSustainability(Ek ins.2000).
ThemaindifferenceofWeakandStrongsustainabilityiswhethernaturalcapital hasauniqueoressentialroleinsustaininghumanwelfare,andthuswhetherspecial compensationrulesarerequiredtoensurethatfuturegenerationsarenotmadeworseoff bynaturalcapitaldepletiontoday.
Accordingtotheweaksustainabilityview,thereisessentiallynoinherentdifference betweennaturalandotherformofcapital,andhencethesameoptimaldepletionrules oughttoapplytoboth.Aslongasthenaturalcapitalthatisbeingdepletedisreplaced withevenmorevaluablephysicalandhumancapital,thenthevalueoftheaggregate stock- comprisinghuman,physicalandtheremainingnaturalcapital- isincreasingover time.Maintainingandenhancingthetotalstockofallcapitalaloneissufficienttoattain sustainabledevelopment.
Incontrast,proponentsofthestrongsustainabilityviewarguethatphysicalor humancapitalcannotsubstituteforalltheenvironmentalresourcescomprisingthe naturalcapitalstockoralloftheecologicalservicesperformedbynature.Essentially,
thisviewquestionswhether,ontheonehand,humanandphysicalcapital,andonthe other,naturalcapital,effectivelycompriseasinglehomogeneoustotalcapitalstock.
Uncertaintyovermanyenvironmentalvalues,inparticularthevaluethatfuture generationsmayplaceonincreasinglyscarcenaturalresourcesandecologicalservices,
furtherlimitsourabilitytodeterminewhetherwecanadequatelycompensatefuture generationsforirreversiblelossesinessentialnaturalcapitaltoday.Thusthestrong
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sustainabilityviewsuggeststhatenvironmentalresourcesandecologicalservicesthat areessentialforhumanwelfareandcannotbeeasilysubstitutedbyhumanandphysical capitalshouldbeprotectedandnotdepleted.Maintainingorincreasingthevalueofthe totalcapitalstockovertimeinturnrequireskeepingthenon- substitutableandessential componentsofnaturalcapitalconstantovertime.
Thereisthentheissueastowhetheritisthetotalstockofcapitalthatmustbe maintained,withsubstitutionallowedbetweenvariouspartsofit,orwhethercertain componentsofcapital,particularlynaturalcapital,arenon- substitutable,i.e.they contributetowelfareinauniquewaythatcannotbereplicatedbyanothercapital component.Turner(1993:9- 15)identifiesfourdifferentkindsofsustainability,ranging fromveryweak,whichassumescompletesubstitutability,toverystrong,which assumesnosubstitutabilitysothatallnaturalcapitalmustbeconserved.Theassumption oftheformerisimplicitintheso- calledHartwickrule(Har twick1977),namelythat,
providedthattheresourcerentsfromtheexploitationofexhaustibleresourcesare investedinmanufacturedcapital,percapitaconsumptioncanremainconstant indefinitelyovertime.Verystrongsustainabilityhasbeencalledabsurdlystrong sustainability(Da ly1995:49)inordertodismissitfrompracticalconsideration.
Turnersmoreinterestingintermediatecategoriesare:
・Weakenvironmentalsustainability,whichderivesfromaperceptionthatwelfare isnotnormallydependentonspecificformofcapitalandcanbemaintainedby substitutingmanufacturedfornaturalcapital,thoughwithexceptions.
・Strongsustainability,whichderiversfromadifferentperceptionthat substitutabilityofmanufacturedfornaturalcapitalisseriouslylimitedbysuch environmentalcharacteristicsasirreversibility,uncertaintyandtheexistenceof criticalcomponentsofnaturalcapital,whichmakeauniquecontributionto welfare.Anevengreaterimportanceisplacedonnaturalcapitalbythosewho regarditinmanyinstancesasacomplementtoman- madecapital(Da ly1992:27)
Thepointatissueiswhichperceptionmostvalidlydescribesreality.Resolvingthis pointshouldbeanempiricalratherthanatheoreticalorideologicalmatter.The assumptionunderlyingweaksustainabilityisthatthereisnoessentialdifferencebetween differentformsofcapital,orbetweenthekindsofwelfare,whichtheygenerate.Onthe otherhand,thestrongsustainabilitykeepsnaturalcapitaldistinctfromotherkindsof capital,itcanexaminenaturalcapitalsparticularcontributiontowelfare,distinguishing betweenitscontributiontoproduction(through resource- provisionandwaste- absorption)anditsservicesthatgeneratewelfaredirectly.Theexaminationmayreveal thatinsomecasesthewelfarederivedfromnaturalcapitalisfullycommensurablewith 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 133
otherwelfarefromproductionandcanbeexpressedinmonetaryform,sothatinthese casessubstitutabilitywithotherformsofproductivecapitalexists,andtheweak sustainabilityconditionofanon- decliningaggregatecapitalstockIsufficientto maintainwelfare.Inothercasetheoutcomeoftheexaminationmaybedifferent.The importantpointisthat,startingfromastrongsustainabilityassumptionofnon- substitutabilityingeneral,itispossibletoshifttoweaksustainabilitypositionwhere thatisshowntobeappropriate.Butstartingfromaweaksustainabilityassumption permitsnosuchinsightstoenableexceptionstobeidentified.Thereforestrong sustainabilityseemstobeadequateasaprioriposition.
Thereareothertheoreticalreasonsforchoosingthestrongsustainabilityassumption.
Victor(1991:210- 11)notesthatthereisrecognitionineconomicsgoingbacktoMarshal thatmanufacturedcapitalisfundamentallydifferentfromenvironmentalresources.The formerishuman- madeandreproducibleinthequantitiesdesired,thelatteristhefree giftofnatureand,inmanycategories,isinfixedorlimitedsupply.Thedestructionof manufacturedcapitalisveryrarelyirreversible(th iswouldonlyoccurifthehuman capital,orknowledge,thatcreatedthemanufacturedcapitalhadalsobeenlost),but irreversibility,withsucheffectsasspeciesextinction,climatechange,oreventhe combustionoffossilfuels,iscommonintheconsumptionofnaturalcapital.Moreover,
totheextentthatmanufacturedcapitalrequiresnaturalcapitalforitsproduction,itcan neverbeacompletesubstituteforresources.
Victoretal.(1995:206)identifytheelementsofnaturalcapitalthatareessentialfor lifeasweknowitaswater,air,minerals,energy,spaceandgeneticmaterials,to whichmightbeaddedthestratosphericozonelayerandtherelationshipsandinteractions betweentheseelementsthatsustainecosystemsandthebiosphere.Somesubstitutionof theseessentialelementsbymanufacturedandhumancapitalcanbeimag ined,buttheir wholesubstitutability,asassumedbyweaksustainability,appearsimprobab le,certainly withpresentknowledgeandtechnologies.Infact,iftheprocessofindustrialisationis viewedastheapplicationofhuman,socialandmanufacturedcapitaltonaturalcapitalto transformitintomorehumanandmanufacturedcapital,thenitispossibletoview currentenvironmentalproblemsasevidencethatsuchsubstitutabilityisnotcomplete.
Ifourcurrentdevelopmentisunsustainable,itisbecauseitisdepletingsomecritical,
non- substitutablecomponentsofthecapitalbaseonwhichitdepends.Criticalnatural capitalmaythenbedefinedasnaturalcapitalwhichisresponsibleforimportant environmentalfunctionsandwhichcannotbesubstitutedintheprovisionofthese functionsbymanufacturedcapital.
Thedifferencebetweenweakandstrongsustainabilityisimpor tanttotheargument aboutthecompatibilityofsustainabilityandGDPgrowth.Ingeneral,itmaybesaidthat productionforGDPgrowthisgeneratedbytransformingenergyandmaterialsfromthe
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naturalenvironmentintohuman- madegoodsandservices.Fewerenvironmentalgoods canbepermanentlytransformedintohuman- madecapitalunderstrongsustainability thanundertheweakversion.Thereforestrongsustainabilityprinciplewouldmakethe generationofGDPmoredifficult.Thefewerthesubstitutionpossibilitiesallowed,the
morestringenttheconditionsforthecompatibilityofsustainabilityandGDPgrowth.
Recentextensionstotheeconomictheoryofsustainabledevelopmenthavenotso muchresolvedthisdebateassharpeneditsfocus.Weneedtoseeargumentsofempirical matterforcomingclosetotheanswer.Therefore,wewillseeargumentsof environmentalKuznetscurvesatnextchapter.
4.ENV I RONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVES
Therehasbeenalotofresearchintherecentyearsderivingeconometricrelationship betweenincomeandvariousindicatorsofenvironmentalquality.Awidevarietyof resultshasbeenobtained,includingforsomeenvironmentalindicatorsaninverseU- relationship,whereenvironmentaldegradationisseentoincreaseatlowincomes,reach apeakandthenimprove asincomeincreasesbeyondthisthreshold.Thispatternis describedasanenvironmentalKuznetscurve(EKC) ,followingtheobservationby Kuznets(1955)thatitappearedtodescribetherelationshipbetweenthelevelofincome andincomeinequality.Figure1showsatypicalEKCestimatedforsulphurdioxide
().OneimportantinterpretationofsuchEKCrelationshipisthatgeneraleconomic developmentwilltakecareoftheenvironmentautomatically.
Source:PearceandBarbier,2000
Figure1.AnEnvironmentalKuznetsCurveforSulphurDioxide
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$GNP per capita kg SO2 per capita
TheabovecurveistheenvironmentalKuznetscurveforestimatedacrossrichand poorcountriesoftheworldbyPanayotou(1995).Thepeakorturningpointlevelofper capitaincomewhereenvironmentaldegradationstartstofallisaboutUS$5,000.
TheobservationoftheEKCforsomeenvironmentalindicatorshasledtovarietyof conclusionsfromtheresearchersandothersabouttheoverallgrowth- environment relationship,suchas:
WefindthatwhileincreasesinGDPmaybeassociatedwithworsening environmentalconditionsinverypoorcountries,airandwaterqualityappearsto benefitfromeconomicgrowthoncesomecriticallevelofincomehasbeenreached.
(GrossmanandKrueger1994:18- 19)
Theevidencesuggeststhatitispossibletogrowoutofsomeenvironmental problems.
(ShafikandBandyopadhyay1992:23)
Wehavefound,throughanexaminationofair- qualitymeasuresinacross- section ocountries,thateconomicgrowthtendtoalleviatepollutionproblemsoncea countryspercapitaincomereachesabout$4,000to$5,000USdollars.
(GrossmanandKrueger1991:35- 6)
Environmentaldegradationoverall(comb inedresourcedepletionandpollution)is worseatlevelsofincomepercapitaunder$1,000.Between$1,000and$3,000,
boththeeconomyandenvironmentaldegradationundergodramaticstructural changefromruraltourban,fromagriculturaltoindustrial.Asecondstructural transformationbeginstotakeplaceascountriessurpassapercapitaincomeof
$10,000andbegintoshiftfromenergyintensiveheavyindustryintoservicesand information- technoligyintensiveindustry.
(Panayotou1993:14)
TheinvertedU- shapeisconsistentwithascenarioinwhichindustrialdevelopment initiallyleadstogreaterrawemissionsofthesepollutants,butnetemissions eventuallydeclineastheincreaseinincomeenvironmentalquality…(Th is literature)raisesthetantalizingpossibilitythatinsteadoftherebeingatrade- off betweengreenhousegasesandeconomicgrowth,fastergrowthcouldserveaspart ofthesolutiontotheworldwideemissionsdilemma.
(Holtz- EakinandSelden1992:3)
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Growthpromotingliberalizationoftradewilloftenleadtoimproved environmental standards.
(Radetzki1992:134)
Thesearestrongconclusions.Theycreatetheimpre ssionthateconomicgrowthandthe environmentarenotonlyinconflict(the formerisnecessarytoimprove thelatter).This conclusionturnsthelimitstogrowthargumentasfollows.Insteadoftheenvironment settinglimitstogrowth,theseconclusionssuggestthatgrowthisarequirementof environmentalimprovement.
Panayotou(1993)givesthemostunequivocalexpressiontotheconclusionsthatcan bedrawnfromageneralacceptanceofanEKCrelationshipbetweengrowthand environmentalquality:
Itsuggeststhatasthedevelopmentprocesspickup,whenacertainlevelofincome percapitaisreached,economicgrowthturnsfromanenemyoftheenvironment intoafriend…Economicgrowthappearstobeapowerfulwayforimprov ing environmentalqualityindevelopingcountries…Ifeconomicgrowthisgoodfor theenvironmentthenpoliciesthatstimulategrowthsuchastradeliberalization,
economicrestructuringandpricereformoughtalsotobegoodfortheenvironment.
Thisinturnwouldtendtosuggestthattheenvironmentneedsnoparticular attention,eitherintermofdomesticenvironmentalpolicyorinternationalpressure orassistance;resourcescanbestbefocusedonachievingrapideconomicgrowthto movequicklythroughtheenvironmentallyunfavourablestageofdevelopmentto theenvironmentallyfavourablerangeoftheKuznetscurve.
(Panayotou1993:14)
Takentoextremes,wedonothavetoregardtheenvironmentasanythingspecial.
Aspeoplegetrichertheywillincreasetheirdemandfortheenvironmentandimprove it,
initiallywithpublichealthlegislation,thencleanair,thenconservationgenerally.
Fromthisview,wedontneedanti- growth.Allweneedforenvironmentistopursue theeconomicgrowth.
Butitisstillnotclearthatweunderstandfullythesecriticalrelationships.For example,manyoftheoriginalexplanationsoftheEKChypothesisfocusedonchangesin thecompositionofgoodsandservicesduetostructuralshiftsintheeconomy,the efficiencyofresourceuse,thecompositionofinputsandtechnologicalinnovation.
However,ithasincreasinglybeenrecognizedthattheeffectsofsuchchangeson environment- incomelinkarenotexogenousprocesses- determinedbyfactorsoutside theeconomy- butareinfluencedbypolicychoices(Panayo tou1995;Sternetal1996; 新潟産業大学経済学部紀要 第30号 137