著者
中村 享
権利
Copyrights 日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）アジア
経済研究所 / Institute of Developing
Economies, Japan External Trade Organization
(IDE-JETRO) http://www.ide.go.jp
シリーズタイトル
研究双書
シリーズ番号
529
雑誌名
アフリカ経済学宣言
ページ
277-296
発行年
2003
出版者
日本貿易振興会アジア経済研究所
URL
http://hdl.handle.net/2344/00012187
第８章
債務削減の経済学
中 村 亨
釦艐郟腀诠靚諫譀苆韝郏跂隱
腀1980鑎釣苌钭鍗鍲迣趑苍腃郎電苰苍芶苟苆芷苩裪躟蹙镩覿詩苌邖邨鍉鋡覺 苢邢詅鍉豩譃賣釞苉苦苁苄釥芫苈釅貂苰軳芯腃苜芽腃荨莋诠鞘苌釥閝苈迣辸 苉苦苨遛趏苈韝郏跂隱離釨苰钭邶芳芹芽腂醽芭苌钭鍗鍲迣趑苉苆苁苄1980鑎 釣苍腵躸苭苪芽10鑎腶苅芠苁芽腂芵芩芵芻苌裪闻苅腃1989鑎艒貎苌荵莌荃荦荂腅 荶莉莓苰铧郘苨苆芷苩芳苜芴苜苈跂隱豹貸跴芪鍯迪芵芽躞釣苅苠芠苩腂蹳迪 荸腛荘苅苌 跂隱跭貸芪蹻芳苪苩苦芤苉苈苨腃芳苧苉苍 跂隱跭貸跴苉苦苨轤跂 隱趑苌豯跏邬銷苖苌醫芪芩苨苉苈苁芽腂1990鑎釣辉鎪苉苍钭鍗鍲迣趑苉野芷 苩隯諔躑陻苌鞬鏼芪譽醝芵腃轤跂隱趑苍遍鑆苰觱閜芵苄腃趑跛躑陻蹳迪苉閜 譁苰觊芽芵芽芩苉苝芦芽腂芾芪腃花苪苅钭鍗鍲迣趑苌 跂隱諫譀苍觰貈芵芽苌 苅芠苫芤芩腂 腀花苪苍腃1990鑎釣苌趑跛诠靚諫譀苰違苨闔苩花苆苅貟还苅芫苩芾苫芤腂 1990鑎釣苍腃賜苂苌釥芫苈趑跛诠靚諫譀苰豯貱芵芽腂苜芸跅辉苉1992鑎轈苉 譎花苁芽覢轂鋊觝諫譀腃釦鏱苉腃1994腠95鑎苌莁荌荖荒鋊觝諫譀腃1997鑎艖 貎腃荞荃苌药腛荣裸芫覺芰苉鉛苰钭芷苩荁荗荁鋊觝諫譀腃1998鑎苌莍荖荁鋊 觝諫譀腃芻芵苄1998腠99鑎苌荵莉荗莋鋊觝諫譀苅芠苩腂花苌賜苂苌諫譀芪躦 芵苄芢苩苦芤苉腃陦裕苆躑陻苌躩青覻苉苦苁苄荏莍腛药莊荛腛荖莇莓芪適鍗 芵芽1990鑎釣苉芨芢苄腃荽荎莍豯跏苆趑跛诠靚芪銘芵芭镳裀鋨覻芵芽苌苅芠苩腂1990鑎釣苌鋊觝諫譀苉苂芢苄苍腃芻苌貴裶芪芳苜芴苜苉顟芶苧苪苄芢苩 芪腃芢芸苪苉芵苄苠韝郏跂隱苌醶距芪釥芫芭芩芩苭苁苄芢苩a腂 腀韝郏跂隱離釨苍腃花苌苦芤苉1990鑎釣豞苌趑跛诠靚諫譀苆苌論顁苅銍雚芳 苪苩裪闻苅腃苆芭苉荁荴莊荊辔趑苌 镮趢跭貸苆豯跏钭鍗苰苇芤遽苩芩苆芢芤 諏鍟苉芨芢苄苠顟芶苧苪苩苦芤苉苈苁芽腂花苪苉苍腃觟轤苈跂隱閉鉓芪醼苌 鉮裦苉铤苗苄鏋软芵苄芢苩苆芢芤躖迮苉见芦苄腃邬銷鍗陝苰詊芯芸苉 镮趢離 釨芪苜芷苜芷遛趏覻芵苄芢苩荁荴莊荊芪腃觟讎苌詊钭郭鞪苌钲陻鍉販銼芵苰 钗苧苪苄芢苩苆芢芤鑷豩芪芠苩s腂 腀陻迍苅苍腃1980鑎釣隖苉鋱裄芳苪芽跂隱譾跏跴苰苍芶苟腃1990鑎釣苉邢詅 询赳苢趑跛鋊觝諮诠腩IMF腪苉苦苁苄赬裄芳苪芽 HIPC荃荪荖荁荠荵苌銆道鍉 鏠靥苅芠苩跂隱譾跏芪腃轤跂隱趑苉非芦苩襥访苰腃芳苜芴苜苈鞝顟鍉莂荦莋 苰 鋊 芶 苄 貟 鎢 芷 苩腂 苜 芽腃 轤 跂 隱 镮 趢 趑腩 Heavily Indebted Poor Countries:
HIPC腪苰荔莓荶莋野进苉芵芽 荰荬莋荦腛荞苰苠苆苉腃 跂隱跭貸苌鎊躑苖苌 荃莓荰荎荧苉迅鍟苰赩苨腃芢芭苂芩苌軀还閪郍苰躎苝苩腂花苌軀还閪郍苰鋊 芵苄腃 跂隱跭貸苌鞝顟莂荦莋苌費軀苖苌釃鎖邫芨苦苑 HIPC荃荪荖荁荠荵苌 靌賸邫苉苂芢苄赬蹀芷苩腂
釦艑郟腀鞝顟鍉荁荶莍腛荠
腀1980鑎釣賣钼苉苍腃跂隱離釨苉野芷苩遖芵芢荁荶莍腛荠芪鍗詊芳苪苩苦芤 苉苈苁芽腂芻苪苍 跂隱諫譀裈赾腃野詏跂隱苰觟迨苉鉾郏芵芽鍲迣趑苌邬銷芪 鏝覻芵腃辫鞈苌跂隱闔跏鑜韍苉譞離芪软苄芫芽花苆芪鑷豩苉芠苨腃躝醱鍉苈 荴荀荃荩莓荘苉苦苁苄跂隱苰醝苢芵苂苃芯苩芩苭苨苉腃跂隱苌閉鉓芻苌苠苌 苰貸集芷苩苆芢芤苠苌苅芠苩腂误里鍉苉苍腃 跂隱集辜腩 debt forgiveness腪腃 跂 隱钃雟芵腩buyback腪腃 跂隱还貔覻腩securitization腪腃 跂隱誔躮荘莏荢荶腩 debt equity swap腪苈苇芪芠苩腂隱趑芾芯苅苍苈芭腃跂負趑苉苠鞘襶苰苠芽苧芷观鑜邫芪鞝顟鍉苉躦芳苪芽花 苆芪芠芰苧苪苩腂花苌花苆苰鞝觰芷苩芽苟苌荌腛苆苈苩詔鑏苍荦荂荘荃莓荚 莓荥荂荵賸觊腩disincentive effect腪苆苦苎苪苩苠苌苅芠苩腂Krugman腭1988腮 苢Sachs腭1986腮苍腃跂隱趑芪遖譋靚躑苰鎊躑苌苝苉鎊覺芵苄腃邬銷苰趂苟 苄苠腃芻苌豯跏鍉邬觊芪芷苗苄跂負趑苖鞬软芷苩苦芤苅苍腃遖譋靚躑苰鎊躑 苉違苨購芯苄蹸閥芢鑜韍苰趂苟苩荃莓荚莓荥荂荵芪鎭芩苈芢花苆苰軥銣芷苩腂 芻花苅跂隱趑芪荦荴荈莋荧苉諗苩观鑜邫芪芠苩迪趇腃跂負趑苍跂隱苌裪閔苰 豹貸芷苩花苆苉苦苨腃荦荴荈莋荧苌詭鞦苰覺芰腃諺釒闔跏詺苰跅釥覻芷苩花 苆苅腃跂負趑苉苠鞘襶芪钭邶芷苩苆芵苄芢苩d腂 艐腄荎莋腛荏荽莓苌 跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼 腀跂隱集辜苌荴荈腛荽莋苈閪郍靰误苆芵苄Krugman腭1989腮苌 跂隱譾跏莉荢 荴荀腛诈郼芪芠苩腩遽艐蹑迆腪腂轣躲苍諺釒闔跏鉬腩芠苩芢苍跂隱苌蹳迪覿鉬腪腃 覡躲苍跂隱苌詺雊鉬苅芠苩腂鍟C裈赾芪觟釥苈跂隱腩 debt overhang腪苌迳讵 苰躦芵苄芨苨腃轣躲苌諺釒闔跏鉬苍覡躲苌跂隱苌詺雊覿鉬苉譹苎苈芭苈苩腂 遽艐腀跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼 0 L R 債務の額面価値 債務の期待返済値 C D1 D0 腩软辊腪腀Krugman腭1989腮.
苠芵腃莊荘荎苢軦裸荒荘荧苰隳躋芷苪苎腃鍟L苆貴鍟苰貋英芾銼郼苌豘芫苍腃 跂隱苌鏱躟鍉诠靚蹳迪苅镝覿芳苪芽覿詩苰镜芷芪腃花苪芪艐裈覺苆苈苩f腂 跂隱芪 D1 苰銴芦苩荐腛荘腃芽苆芦苎 D0 苌邅辀苉芠苩苆芫腃 跂隱跭貸芪苈芳 苪苩苆腃跂隱趑腃跂負趑苆苠鞘襶苰軳芯苩g腂 腀花苌 跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼苉苦苨腃Krugman腭1989腮苍蹳迪荸腛荘苌 跂隱跭貸荘荌腛莀芪跂負趑苆跂隱趑苌酯闻苉苆苁苄腃述貏苉苦苁苄苍鞘襶芪 邶芸苩花苆苰鞝顟鍉苉躦芵芽腂 跂隱钃雟芵腃 跂隱还貔覻腃 跂隱誔躮荘莏荢荶 苌蹏苂苌譾跏軨鉩苍腃跗閔苅苌裡芢苍芠苩苠苌苌腃鏱躟鍉诠靚蹳迪苅苌誄裸 苰鞘靰芵苄跂隱苌閉鉓苰豹貸芷苩苠苌苅芠苩腂芽芾芵花苪芪蹳迪荸腛荘苅襞 靰芳苪苩芽苟苉苍腃芷苈苭芿跂負趑芪花苌跭貸苉覞芶苩芽苟苉苍腃芻苪苉苦苁 苄諺釒闔跏詺芪醝芦腃蹣靝苌跂負苌蹳迪覿鉬芪迣辸芷苩花苆芪镋靶苅芠苩腂 芵芩芵腃花苌荁荃荦荁苉野芵苄苍芳苜芴苜苈譣顟芪芨花苁芽腂芻苪苧苰裈覺 苉芨芢苄諈鉐苉飫芷苩腂 艑腄荒腛荦莓腅莂荦莋苆 跂隱跭貸苌荦荂荘荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊 腀跂隱跭貸芪跂隱趑芾芯苅苍苈芭跂負趑苉苠鞘襶芪芠苩苆芷苩荔荢荎荘苢荎 莋腛荏荽莓苧苌莂荦莋苉野芵苄腃Corden腭1989腮苍諈鉐苈裙躞鍟諔莂荦莋 苰蹧苁苄腃 跂隱跭貸苍鎊躑苰醝苢芷苇花苫芩腃費距苌迁铯苰醝苢芷花苆苉苈 苩苆芢芤腩荒腛荦莓苍花苪苰 跂隱跭貸苌荦荂荘荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊苆苦苔腪腂遽 艑苉芨芯苩覡躲苍釦艑諺苉芨芯苩邶蹙腃迁铯腃鎊躑苰镜芵腃轣躲苍釦艒諺苉 芨芯苩邶蹙腃迁铯腃跂隱蹸閥芢苰镜芷腩釦艒諺苌鎊躑苍隳躋芷苩腪腂诈郼 AB 苍邶蹙观鑜邫诈郼苰镜芵腃OA′苍釦艑諺苌邶蹙腩芻苌荔荃荙苍釦艐諺苌鎊躑詺 苉裋醶芷苩腪苰镜芷芪腃芻苪苰鎊躑苆迁铯苉鑺閪芷苩腂迁铯苍貴鍟芩苧豶苧苪腃 鎊躑苍 A′芩苧趶醤苉購芩苁苄豶苧苪苩腂芽苆芦苎腃釦艑諺苌邶蹙 OA′苌芤 芿芷苗苄苰迁铯苉铯苢芷苆芷苩苆腃釦艒諺苌邶蹙苍 AA′苆苈苩腂苜芽釦艑諺 苌迁铯苰跅鋡邶醶邅辀莉荃莓 OB′苉邧賀芵腃芻苪裈詏苌 A′B′苰鎊躑苉觱芷 苆釦艒諺苌邶蹙苍 BB′苆苈苩腂花苌苦芤苉腃邶蹙观鑜邫诈郼 AB 苍腃釦艑諺
苌鎊躑韊苆釦艒諺苌邶蹙苌論豗苰镜芵芽苠苌苉苈苩腂裙躞鍟諔苌賸靰苰跅釥 苉芷苩跅鍋苈鎊躑酉釰苍裪铊鍉苈述貏苌苠苆苅苍隳趷闊诈郼苆郚芷苩鍟 R 苆苈苩腂花花苅釦艒諺苉苍腃遽銆苌 BC 苉醊鎖芷苩腩釦艐諺苉軳芯芽靚躑苉野 芷苩腪跂隱闔跏譠隱芪芠苩苆芵苦芤腂花苌苆芫腃诈郼 AB 苰 BC 閪覺闻荖荴 荧芵芽 CC′芪釦艒諺苉观鑜苈迁铯韊苰镜芷诈郼苆苈苩腂跅鍋離釨苰觰芫銼芷 苆腃跅鍋鍟苍 S 鍟苆苈苩腂花苌花苆芩苧腃釦艒諺苉跂隱蹸閥芢譠隱芪芠苩苆腃 釦艑諺苉芨芢苄鎊躑苰醝苢芵腃迁铯苰貸苧芷苆芢芤腃跂隱趑苌銲邮鍷韍芪醝 芷花苆芪詭鑆苅芫苩腂芵芩芵腃譴苉腃釦艒諺苉跂隱譾跏芪芠苩苆釦艑諺苌辉 苟苉閪芩苁芽迪趇苉腃鎊躑苢迁铯苉苇苌苦芤苈襥访芪芠苩芾苫芤芩腂花苌 S 鍟苌迳釔芩苧腃BC 苉鎙芵芢 跂隱跭貸苰芷苩苆腩鍟 S 芩苧鍟 R 苖苌裚鎮腪腃裙 躞鍟諔苌賸靰苰跅釥覻芷苩豯跏軥里苍鎊躑苰貸苧芵腃迁铯苰醝苢芷花苆苉苈 苩腩 跂隱跭貸苌荦荂荘荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊腪腂芽苆芦閔閪鍉苈 跂隱跭貸苅芠苁 芽苆芵苄苠腃S 鍟芩苧 SR 迣苌芠苩鍟苉裚鎮芷苩花苆苰裓隡芵腃鎯芶荦荂荘 荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊芪鎭芭花苆芪閪芩苩腂 腀芵芩芵荔荢荎荘苢荎莋腛荏荽莓芪軥銣芷苩腃 跂隱跭貸芪銲邮鍷韍苰醣芷 荐腛荘腩荒腛荦莓苍花苪苰 跂隱跭貸苌荶莍荃莓荚莓荥荂荵腱pro腀incentive腲賸觊 遽艑腀Corden 莂荦莋腩A腪 0 S B C R A C′ 第２期の生産 ・消費・投資 第３期の生産・消費 B′ S′ R′ A′ 腩软辊腪腀Corden腭1989腮.
苆苦苔腪芪荒腛荦莓腅莂荦莋苅苠腃賀鋨鍉苈述貏苌苠苆苅邬苨鞧苂花苆苍观 鑜苅芠苩腂芻苌述貏苆苍腃芷苈苭芿腃a跂隱趑苍跂隱闔跏諺腩釦艒諺腪苉跅 鋡邶醶邅辀莌荸莋苌迁铯邅辀苰裛躝芷苩镋靶芪芠苩花苆腃s跂隱趑芪跅鋡邶 醶邅辀莌荸莋苌迁铯苰裛躝芷苩芽苟苉 跂隱譾跏苰镋靶苆芷苩迪趇苉苍腃跂負 趑苍芻苌譾跏裄苰蹤闻苈芭軳芯鏼苪芴苩苰芦苈芢苆芢芤苠苌苅芠苩h腂花苪 苰酏鋱苉芷苩苆腃跅鍋離釨苍遽艒苌鍟 K 苆鍟 S* 苌酉釰芪隳趷闊苆苈苩苦芤 苈離釨苉轗雱芳苪苩腂花花苅腃OL 苍釦艒諺苉芨芯苩跅鋡邶醶邅辀莌荸莋苌 迁铯苰镜芷腂鍟 K 苅苍釦艑諺苉觟辬苈鎊躑 K′A′腃觟釥苈迁铯 OK′苰酉釰芵腃 釦艒諺苉誮酓苈鏠邶鍉跂隱譾跏苰跂負趑芩苧軳芯苩花苆苉苈苩腂鍟 S* 苅苍腃 釦艑諺苉鎊躑 S*′A′腃迁铯 OS*′苰酉釰芵腃跂負趑苍閔閪鍉苈跂隱闔跏 S*Y 苰 軳芯軦苩腂花苌鍟苍腃賣苉苈苁苄誮酓苈鏠邶鍉跂隱譾跏苰軳芯鏼苪苩腩苂苜 苨跂隱趑苉苦苩荦荴荈莋荧芪钭邶芵腃跂隱闔跏苌軳芯軦苨苍荛莍腪K 鍟苦苨腃讦 譣芵苄詏邶鍉跂隱譾跏苰軳芯鏼苪腃閔閪鍉苈跂隱闔跏苰軳芯軦苩苙芤芪跂負 趑苉苆苁苄鞘襶芪邶芸苩苆花苫苅芠苩芪腃跂隱趑苉苍腃苇芿苧苌鍟苠隳趷闊 苅芠苩腂跂負趑苉芷苪苎腃軳芯軦苨芪荛莍芩芢芭苧芩苌闔跏芪芠苩芩苌腃苜 遽艒腀Corden 莂荦莋腩B腪 0 S B C R Y A L K C′ C′* 第２期の生産 ・消費・投資 第３期の生産・消費 B′ S*′ S* S′′ A′ K′ 腩软辊腪腀Corden腭1989腮.
芳苉荩荃荴腅荇荢荗腩knife腀edge腪鍉苈迳釔苉芠苩腂芻花苅腃跂負趑芪芳苧 苉鋇见鍉苈詏邶鍉跂隱譾跏苰芷苪苎腩芽苆芦苎 S′′鍟腪腃跂隱趑苍荦荴荈莋荧 苰酉釰芷苩花苆苈芭腃鎊躑苰醝见芳芹腃銲邮鍷韍苰芵腃閔閪鍉苈跂隱闔跏苰 鞚赳芷苩苆芢芤荶莍荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊芪钭邶芵苄芢苩花苆芪詭鑆苅芫苩腂 花苌荔荢荎荘腅荎莋腛荏荽莓荞荃荶苌荶莍荃莓荚莓荥荂荵苈 跂隱跭貸苌迳讵 芪邶苜苪苩芽苟苉苍腃芳芫苙苇躦芵芽苦芤苉跂隱闔跏芪觟釥苅腃跂隱趑苌迁 铯邅辀芪跅鋡邶醶邅辀莌荸莋苉诟郚芵苄芢苩花苆腃苜芽腃K 鍟苰鋊苩隳趷闊 诈郼芪 S 鍟苰鋊苩隳趷闊诈郼苦苨苠迣裊苉裊鉵芵苄芢苩花苆芪镋靶苅芠苩腂 艒腄荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴苌 跂隱钃雟芵顟醈 腀1980鑎釣賣钼芩苧腃 跂隱钃雟芵腩buyback腪苢 跂 隱 誔 躮 荘 莏 荢 荶腩 debt equity swap腪苈苇苌蹳迪荸腛荘苌 跂隱跭貸芪躎苝苧苪芽芪腃荔荢荎荘苢荎莋腛 荏荽莓苧苆苍裙苈苨腃Bulow and Rogoff腭1988腮苍腃芻苌軭苌蹳迪荸腛荘苌 跭 貸 苍 轤 跂 隱 趑 苉 苍 覽 苧 鞘 襶 苰 苠 芽 苧 芷 苠 苌 苅 苍 苈 芭腃 隳 释 苈 蹤 躖 腩boondoggle腪苅芠苩苆芳芦轱苗苄芢苩腂荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴苍腃1988鑎苉赳 苭苪芽荻莊荲荁苌 跂隱钃雟芵苌荐腛荘苰裸靰芵苄芢苩腂鎖躞腃釦鏱躟诠靚蹳 迪苅苍腃荻莊荲荁苌跂隱苍艐荨莋鎖芽苨艕荚莓荧苅賰誷芳苪苄芢芽腂詏趑苌 覇辕趑芩苧讟软芳苪芽3400障荨莋苅詺雊覿鉬艒覭800障荨莋苌 跂隱钃雟芵苰 赳芢腃芻苌貋觊腃鎖辉苌跂隱苌詺雊覿鉬苍艕覭7000障荨莋芩苧艒覭6200障荨 莋苖苆貸詺芳苪芽腂芵芩芵腃釦鏱躟诠靚蹳迪苅苍腃荻莊荲荁苌跂隱苍艐荨莋 鎖芽苨11荚莓荧苜苅銵苋迣芪苨腃蹳迪镝覿鉬苅苝苩苆腃鎖辉苌4020障荨莋芩 苧3980障荨莋苉貸詺芳苪芽苉芷芬苈芢腂苂苜苨腃3400障荨莋苌铯靰苰铯苢芵 苄腃苭芸芩軀躿40障荨莋腩膁4020障荨莋腼3980障荨莋腪苌跂隱苌貸詺苰軀費芵 芽花苆苉苈苩腂荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴苍腃跂負趑芩苧醊鎖苈迷讖芪鎾苧苪苈芢芩 芬苨腃跂隱苌钃雟芵苍跂負趑苖苌鞘襶苉苍苈苁苄苠鍲迣趑苖苌鞘襶苉苍苈苧 苈芢苆芵苄芢苩腂 腀芳苄腃芻苌荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴腅莂荦莋苌荇荢荚莓荘苍躟苌躮苉轗雱芳苪苩腂
芷苈苭芿腃 q D D D D 1−
[
1− ′υ( )
]
> υ′( ) ( )
/υ 腣腣a 花花苅腃D 苍跂隱苌詺雊覿鉬腃υ( )
D 苍跂隱 D 苌蹳迪镝覿鉬腃q 苍跂隱趑苌 辊鎾芩苧腃跂負趑芪裸芫软芹苩花苆苌苅芫苩跅釥闔跏苌铤鞦(
0< ≤q 1)
苅芠 苩腂a躮苌趶闓苍跂隱趑苉苆苁苄苌 跂隱钃雟芵苉钺芤铯靰苅芠苩腂荦荴荈莋 荧芵芽迪趇腩芻苌詭鞦苰荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴苅苍 1− ′υ( )D 苆鏁鋨覻芳苪苄芢苩腪苉 跂負軒芪艐荨莋苌芤芿 q 芾芯軀跛蹸閥芤花苆苉苈苩腂芻苌諺釒鉬苍 q[
1− ′υ( )
D]
苅腃芻苪芪腃钃雟芵芷苩芽苟苉蹸閥芤艐荨莋芩苧趷芵裸芩苪苩腂襅闓苍跂隱 苰钃雟芵芷苩芽苟苉蹸閥芤艐荨莋芩苧軳芯苩闖襶苅芠苩腂艐荨莋苌钃雟芵苍腃 跂隱苌詺雊覿鉬苰 D/υ( )
D 芾芯覺芰苩腂苜芽艐荨莋苌跂隱苌詺雊覿鉬苌鋡覺 苍釦鏱躟诠靚蹳迪苅镝覿芳苪芽跂隱苌覿鉬苰 υ′( )
D 芾芯覺芰苩苌苅腃貋诇艐 荨莋苌跂隱苌钃雟芵苍腃跂隱苌蹳迪覿鉬苰 Dυ′( ) ( )
D /υ D 芾芯覺芰苩花苆苉 苈苩腂跂隱苌钃雟芵芪跂隱趑苌鞘襶苉鎭芭苌苍腃q 鉬芪轜閪苉釥芫芢苆芫芾 芯苅芠苩腂荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴苍腃花苌 q 芪腃跂隱趑芪 跂隱钃雟芵苰芷苩苌苉 鉬芷苩釥芫苈鉬苰軦苨芦苈芢苆芵苄芢苩j腂 腀荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴腅莂荦莋苅苠芤裪苂銍雚芷苗芫譁貋苆芵苄腃苠芵 跂隱譾 跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼苌銸鍟苦苨襅钼閪醤苉裊鉵芵芽迪趇苅苠腃 跂隱跭貸苌賸觊 苍荎莋腛荏荽莓苢荔荢荎荘苌芢芤貋顟苆钽野苉苈苩苆芢芤花苆芪芠芰苧苪苩腂 芷苈苭芿腃花苌迪趇腃υ′( )
D 苍閉苆苈苨腃q 苌鑃裓苈鉬苉野芵苄a躮苅躦芳 苪苩镳鎙躮芪邬苨鞧苂苌苅芠苩腂芷苈苭芿腃芽苆芦 跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼 苌襅钼閪醤苉裊鉵芷苩苦芤苈轤跂隱趑苅芠苁苄苠腃钃雟芵苉苦苩 跂隱跭貸苍 跂隱趑苌鞘襶苉苍苈苧苈芢腂 腀花苪苉野芵苄腃Froot腭1989腮苍腃裪铊苉 跂隱钃雟芵苍跂隱趑苉闖襶苰苠 芽苧芷苆芵腃芻苌闖襶苍跂隱趑芪 跂隱钃雟芵苌芽苟苉蹧芤躑貹苰苇花苉讁苟 苩芩苉裋醶芷苩苆芢芤腂蹬苂苌观鑜邫芪芠苨腃a跂負趑苉苦苩较邈苈跂隱苌 陟裸芫腃s荨荩腛芩苧苌 覇辕腃d跂隱趑苌辫鞈苌荌莃荢荖莅荴莍腛腃f跂隱 趑苌詏觝辀铵苅芠苩腂 a苌荐腛荘苍跂隱趑苉苍闖襶苰非芦苩芪腃 跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼苌襅钼閪醤苉裊鉵芷苩苆芫苌苝腃跂負趑苉闖襶苰非芦苩腂s 苅苍跂隱趑苉苍a苆鎯靬苌闖襶苰非芦苩芪腃跂負趑苉苍a苌荐腛荘苦苨釥芫 苈闖襶苰非芦苩k腂d苍a苆鎯芶賸觊苰苠苂腂f苍跂隱趑腃跂負趑苆苠 跂隱 跭貸苌賺邶邅辀苌醝见苍鋡芢莌荸莋苉苆苇苜苩腂跂隱趑苌詏觝辀铵芪鋡芢苆 芫腃跂隱趑苌賺邶邅辀苰鋡覺芳芹苄芵苜芤腂 艓腄芻苌醼苌莂荦莋 腀Easterly腭2001腮苍腃 跂隱跭貸芪跂隱離釨苌钲陻鍉苈觰貈苉苈苩苇花苫芩腃 裈酏苆鎯芶遛趏苈莌荸莋苌野詏跂隱苌邅辀苉雟苩花苆苰鞝顟莂荦莋苉苦苁苄 躦芵苄芢苩腂醍躑蹙苰 A腃野詏跂隱苰 L腃较躑蹙苰 W(= −A L)腃苜芽躑蹙軻襶鞦 苰r苆芵腃趑鏠醍邶蹙苰 GDP= 苆鉐较覻芵苄芨芭腂芷苩苆腃趑隯醍邶蹙苍腃rA GDP=rA−rL=rW 苆镜芷花苆芪苅芫苩腂花苪苧苌荘荧荢荎闏邔苰荴莍腛闏 邔镜躦苉闏誷芷苩苆腃 W˙ = −A˙ L˙ 腣腣s 花苌 W˙ 苍醍銙鉾苉腃A˙ 苍醍鎊躑苉腃L˙ 苍豯迭軻蹸郔躚苉醊鎖芷苩腂迣躮苍躟 苌f躮苌靜蹚邧雱躮苉闏豠芳苪腩s躮苌鞼闓苉迁铯C苰见芦腃躟苌苦芤苉闏豠 苅芫苩腂C W+ ˙ = + − =C A˙ L˙ GNP=rW腪腃躟苌跅鍋覻苰觰芭離釨苉譁銅芳苪苩腂 芷苈苭芿腃 C1−σ max ee dt t − ∞ −
∫
0 1 σρ 腣腣d subject to C=rW− ˙ W 腣腣f 芽芾芵腃花花苅苍腃賅鋨鍉苈裙躞鍟諔苌釣釖苌鉥韍邫苰苠苂賸靰論邔u C C −
( )
= − 1 σ σ 腣腣g 苰覼鋨芵苄芨苨腃ρ苍軥諏鍉誄裸鞦腃(1/σ) 苍裙躞鍟諔釣釖鉥韍邫苅芠苩腂 花苌離釨苉芨芯苩跅鍋苈迁铯荰荘苍裈覺苌躮苅躦芳苪苩腂 C C r = −ρ σ ˙ 腣腣h 腀赐迭迳釔苉芨芢苄腃C およ苑 W 苍鎯裪苌邬銷鞦苅邬銷芷苩苌苅腃fh躮苦苨腃 A L C− =r− −r ρ σ 1 腣腣j 花苌躮苦苨腃軥諏鍉誄裸鞦ρ芪趂芯苪苎趂芢苙苇腩花苪苍腃躞諔鍉苉賣苅讝軳 芷苩賸靰苙苇鋡芭镝覿芳苪苄芢苩腃芷苈苭芿費躞鍟腱費邢釣腲苌迁铯苰跅靄郦芷 苩花苆苰裓隡芷苩腪腃苜芽 r>ρ 苅芠苪苎腃裙躞鍟諔釣釖鉥韍邫 (1/σ) 芪鋡芯 苪苎鋡芢苙苇l腃趶闓苉芨芢苄腃鋡躑蹙铤鞦 (A C/ )腃趂野詏跂隱铤鞦 (L C/ ) 芪 野覞芷苩腂芷苈苭芿腃j躮苍腃芽苆芦裪躞鍉苈跂隱譾跏芪赳苭苪芽苆芵苄苠腃 襅闓苌赜醢荰莉莁腛荞腛芪闏覻芵苈芢芩芬苨腃銷諺鍉苉苍跂隱譾跏蹻赳酏苌 较躑蹙腅迁铯铤鞦腩鋡躑蹙腅趂野詏跂隱腪苉雟苁苄芵苜芤花苆苰躦趴芵苄芢苩腂釦艒郟腀軀还鍉荁荶莍腛荠
腀酏郟苉芨芢苄苍腃 跂隱跭貸苰苟芮苨芳苜芴苜苈鞝顟莂荦莋芪赜鉺芳苪腃芻 苪芪跂隱趑苌豯跏芨苦苑腃跂負趑苌鞘襶苉苇苌苦芤苉襥访苰譹苚芷芩芪貟鎢 芳苪苄芫芽腂芵芩芵腃苇苌莂荦莋苌譁貋苠芻苪芪酏鋱苆芷苩覼鋨苉釥芫芭裋 醶芵苄芨苨腃芻苪芪苠苂邭跴鍉諜裓苠醊钽芷苩苠苌苠醶距芵苄芢苩腂陻郟苅 苍腃 跂隱跭貸苌鎊躑苖苌荃莓荰荎荧苉迅鍟苰赩苨腃芢芭苂芩苌軀还閪郍苰躎 苝苩腂艐腄跂隱苆邬銷苌軀还閪郍腆荔腛荸荃 腀1980鑎釣賣諺苉苍腃觟釥苈跂隱腩 debt overhang腪苍跂隱趑苌鎊躑苰袳钗芵 苄芢苩苆芢芤覼郠苰鞧苄腃芻苪苰軀还貤讆苉苦苨难苧芩苉芵腃 跂隱跭貸芪跂 隱趑腃跂負趑苆苠苉鞘襶苰非芦苩苆芢芤荎莋腛荏荽莓苢荔荢荎荘苧苌郠芪釃 鎖芩苇芤芩苰貟还芷苩躎苝芪苈芳苪芽腂陻郟苅苍芻苌諈鉐苈荔腛荸荃苰赳芤腂 Claessens腭1990腮腃Cline腭1989腮腃芨苦苑Cohen腭1990腮苍鏱躟鍉诠靚蹳迪 苌荦腛荞苰蹧芢腃 跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼苌襅醤苉裊鉵芷苩跂隱趑苍苙苆英 苇苈芢花苆苰躦芵苄芢苩腂苆芭苉荒腛荷莓苅苍腃81荊趑苌鍲迣趑苌荦腛荞苰 荶腛莋芵腃铭郠难闏邔苉鎊躑腅GDP铤鞦苰腃郠难闏邔苉遬賻邬銷鞦腃荃莓 荴莌鞦腃靁软腅GDP铤鞦腃艐遬鎖芽苨辊鎾腃轁詷鞦腃鉮裦荟荾腛腃芻苪苉 1982鑎苌跂隱腅靁软铤鞦苰酉苑觱譁芳芹苄芢苩腂芻苌貋觊腃 跂隱諫譀荟荾腛 腩82腠87荟荾腛腪芨苦苑跂隱腅靁软铤鞦苍閉苌豗邔苰苠苂苠苌苌腃鎝豶鍉苉靌 裓苅苍苈芢花苆苰闱趐芵苄芢苩腂苜芽Warner腭1991腮苍1981鑎裈酏苌13轤 跂隱趑苌荦腛荞苰荶腛莋芵腃铭郠难闏邔苉鎊躑腅GDP铤鞦苰腃郠难闏邔苉 賰裕述貏腃邢詅軀躿鞘蹱鞦腃郦適趑苌赈识邶蹙苰酉苑觱譁芵苄芨苨腃花苪苅 1982鑎裈赾苌靜醪苰赳苁芽腂芻苌貋觊腃 跂隱諫譀躞苌鎊躑苌鞎芿趞苝苍跂隱 論顁苌闏邔苉苦苁苄鎝豶鍉苉轜閪苉郠难芳苪苈芢花苆苰闱趐芵苄芢苩腂荦荂 莏莓膁莍荨莊荢荎苍跂隱芪荃莓荶莊荖荢荧腩implicit腪苈郅苌鎭芫苰芵腃荦荂 荘荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊苰苠苂苆芵苄苠遛趏苈賸觊芪软苩苉苍跂隱闔跏苌譋雍 芪辬芳芢苆芵苄芢苩芪腃花苌貋觊苍迣苌鎝豶鍉貟还苆譏苰裪苉芵苄芢苩腂 腀跅诟苅苍腃Pattilo et al.腭2002腮芪腃93荊趑苌钭鍗鍲迣趑腃1969鑎芩苧1998 鑎苜苅苌荔莓荶莋諺諔苌 荰荬莋荦腛荞苉苦苨腃野詏跂隱苆豯跏邬銷苌論豗苰 軀还閪郍芵苄芢苩腂铞苧苉苦苩苆腃跂隱铤鞦苰鑻苉芷苩苆腃豯跏邬銷鞦芪腃 0.5膓芩苧艐膓荟荅莓芷苩苆芢芤腂苜芽腃跂隱腅靁软铤¡0 芪100膓裈覺苌趑苆腃 300膓裈迣苌趑苆苅苍腃豯跏邬銷鞦苉艑膓苌詩趷芪邶苜苪苩苆芢芤腂芳苧苉 HIPC荃荪荖荁荠荵苌豶触苇芨苨苉跂隱芪跭貸芳苪芽迪趇苉豯跏邬銷鞦芪
艐膓醝见芷苩苆躎蹚芵苄芢苩腂铞苧苌莂荦莋苌鏁銥苍腃跂隱蹣趂苆豯跏邬銷 鞦苌諔苉苍腃遽艓苅躦芳苪芽闺閨郼迳苌铱郼豠苰覼鋨芵苄芢苩花苆苅芠苩腂 鋡莌荸莋苌跂隱蹣趂苅苍腃豯跏邬銷苰醣芷躑陻鞬鏼苆芵苄苌醤雊苰苠苂芪腃 跂隱芪觟轤苉苈苩苆腃釦艑郟苅苝芽苦芤苉荦荂荘荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊芪鎭芫腃 豯跏邬銷苉閉苌賸觊芪跬靰芷苩苆酺鋨芵苄芢苩腂铞苧苌躎蹚苉苦苪苎腃豯跏 邬銷芪荽荃荩荘苉諗苩跂隱腅靁软铤鞦腩遽艓苅苍B鍟苉苈苩腪苍160腠170膓苅腃 跂隱腅GDP铤鞦苅苍腃35腠40膓芮苧芢苅芠苩苆芢芤腂芿苈苝苉腃跂隱铤鞦 苌賀詅鍉苈醝见芪腃豯跏邬銷鞦苌闏覻苉荽荃荩荘苌襥访苰非芦苍芶苟苩苌苍 腩遽艓苅苍A鍟腪腃迣苌邔鉬苌钼閪芮苧芢苅芠苩苆闱趐芵苄芢苩腂 艑腄跂隱苌鎊躑苖苌荃莓荰荎荧腆莂荦莋 腀陻趀苅苍腃荰荥荂腛莍苧芪躎苝芽腃跂隱腅豯跏邬銷鞦諔苌铱郼豠苌覼鋨苰腃 跂隱腅鎊躑諔苉鍋靰芵軀还閪郍苰赳芤腂遽艔苍腃跂隱腅鎊躑諔苌铱郼豠苌論 豗苰躦芵芽苠苌苅芠苩腂花苌铱郼豠苌論豗芪芠苩芩苇芤芩苰銲苗苩芽苟苉腃 裈覺苌苦芤苈莂荦莋苰覼鋨芵芽腂芷苈苭芿腃 遽艓腀跂隱苆邬銷苌铱郼豠苌論豗 NPV of debt to export （％） HIPC debt target Contribution of debt
to annual per capita output growth（％） 1.0 150 165 A B 0.5 腩软辊腪Pattillo et al.腭2002腮.
Iit= it+ Xit+rDit+ Dit + it 2 α β δ ε 腣腣k 花花苅腃I 苍腃鎊躑腅GDP铤鞦腃X 苍荒莓荧莍腛莋闏邔苅腃賰裕述貏腃遬賻 邬銷鞦腃銆鎙讳裧轁詷鞦腃陦裕苌草腛荶莓鍸苅郠难芵芽腂D 苍跂隱論顁苌蹷 镗苅腃a腩隼雚腪跂隱腅靁软铤鞦腃s跂隱苌较誄裸費距覿鉬腅靁软铤鞦腃d腩隼 雚腪跂隱腅GDP铤鞦腃f跂隱苌较誄裸費距覿鉬腅GDP铤鞦苌艓軭韞苰铭郠 难闏邔苉豶醪苰躎苝芽腂還鋨闻陀苍腃a跅辬躩迦陀腩OLS腪腃s醀跬闏邔陀腃 d荰荬莋腩賅鋨賸觊腪苌艒軭韞苰鍋靰芵芽腂芻苪芼苪苌還鋨苍腃a郼豠
(
δ=0)
腃 s铱郼豠(
δ≠0)
苌鏱苂覼鋨苌苠苆苅赳苭苪苄芢苩腂荔莓荶莋野进趑苍腃 HIPC42荊趑苌芤芿腃30荊趑苅腃豶醪諺諔苍1985腠98鑎苌14鑎苅芠苩¡1 腂荦腛 荞苍腃趑鏠鎊躑腅GDP铤鞦苆跂隱論顁蹷镗苰辜芫腃芷苗苄邢詅询赳苌WorldDevelopment Indicators腃African Development Indicators腃芨苦苑Global Development
Finance苦 苨 鎾 芽腂 趑 鏠腅 鎊 躑 铤 鞦 苍腃Summers and Heston苌Penn World Tables腩ver.6.0腪¡2苰腃苜芽跂隱論顁蹷镗苍Easterly腭2001腮苰蹧靰芵芽腂豶 醪貋觊苍腃镜艐芩苧镜艓苉躦芳苪苄芢苩腂 遽艔腀跂隱苆鎊躑苌铱郼豠苌論豗 NPV of debt to export （％） Investment/GDP（％） A 腩软辊腪腀镍軒跬邬腂
镜艐腀 野詏跂隱苌鎊躑苉非芦苩荃莓荰荎荧苌豶醪腆 腀腀腀Debt/Export苌荐腛荘
OLS 醀跬闏邔陀 荰荬莋腩賅鋨賸觊腪
Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic
debt 0.11*** −0.59*** 0.11*** −1.07*** −0.05 腼0.54*** 腩4.44腪 腩−7.58腪 腩2.92腪 腩−5.66腪 腩−1.17腪 腩−5.95腪
debt2 0.02*** 0.04*** 0.01***
腩9.45腪 腩6.33腪 腩5.98腪 terms of trade 0.27 0.29 −0.75 −0.03** 0.43 0.32E腀2
腩0.46腪 腩0.55腪 腩−0.59腪 腩−2.11腪 腩0.90腪 腩0.71腪 population growth 0.07 −0.01 0.72 −1.49 0.02 −0.02 腩0.58腪 腩−0.15腪 腩−0.59腪 腩−1.09腪 腩0.28腪 腩−0.25腪 schooling 0.04*** 0.03*** 0.03* 0.02 0.11*** 0.12*** 腩2.74腪 腩2.72腪 腩1.57腪 腩1.18腪 腩2.54腪 腩3.00腪 openness 0.04*** 0.02*** 0.05*** 0.03** 0.03*** 0.03*** 腩6.18腪 腩4.07腪 腩3.85腪 腩1.92腪 腩4.05腪 腩3.91腪 Adjusted R2 0.15 0.30 0.14 0.18 0.62 0.65 腩銍腪腀腩腀腪鏠苍 t 鉬苰镜芵腃***腃**腃*苍芻苪芼苪靌裓邅辀艐膓腃艔膓腃10膓苅譁隳覼郠苰諼 議芷苩花苆苰躦芷腂 镜艑腀 野詏跂隱苌鎊躑苉非芦苩荃莓荰荎荧苌豶醪腆 腀腀腀Net Present Value of Debt/Export苌荐腛荘
OLS 醀跬闏邔陀 荰荬莋腩賅鋨賸觊腪
Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic debt 0.29*** −0.02 0.33*** −2.10* 0.23*** −0.23*** 腩8.43腪 腩−0.30腪 腩5.52腪 腩−1.59腪 腩5.51腪 腩−2.77腪 debt2
0.01*** 0.10** 0.01***
腩5.64腪 腩1.80腪 腩6.30腪 terms of trade −0.3E腀2 0.51E腀2 −0.02* −0.03 0.54E腀2 0.69*
腩−0.61腪 腩0.01腪 腩−1.43腪 腩−0.78腪 腩1.21腪 腩1.61腪 population growth 0.12 0.045 −0.18 −0.65 0.12 0.03 腩1.02腪 腩0.41腪 腩−0.16腪 腩−0.20腪 腩1.43腪 腩0.40腪 schooling 0.04*** 0.05*** 0.03** 0.09*** 0.11*** 0.11*** 腩3.31腪 腩3.63腪 腩2.16腪 腩1.65腪 腩2.66腪 腩2.96腪 openness 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.05*** 0.83E腀2 0.04*** 0.03*** 腩7.09腪 腩6.12腪 腩4.17腪 腩0.09腪 腩5.32腪 腩4.27腪 Adjusted R2 0.24 0.29 0.21 0.16 0.64 0.68 腩銍腪腀腩腀腪鏠苍 t 鉬苰镜芵腃***腃**腃*苍芻苪芼苪靌裓邅辀艐膓腃艔膓腃10膓苅譁隳覼郠苰諼 議芷苩花苆苰躦芷腂
镜艒腀 野詏跂隱苌鎊躑苉非芦苩荃莓荰荎荧苌豶醪腆 腀腀腀Debt/GDP苌荐腛荘
OLS 醀跬闏邔陀 荰荬莋腩賅鋨賸觊腪
Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic
debt 0.16E腀2 0.68E腀2** 0.17E腀2 0.85E腀2* −0.75E腀2*** −0.02*** 腩1.25腪 腩2.03腪 腩0.87腪 腩1.43腪 腩−4.65腪 腩−4.23腪 debt2 −0.59E腀05** −0.82E腀05 0.91E腀05***
腩−1.66腪 腩−1.26腪 腩2.66腪
terms of trade 0.78E腀2 0.59E腀2 0.97E腀2 −0.42 −0.31E腀02 −0.54E腀2 腩1.32腪 腩0.98腪 腩0.01腪 腩−0.30腪 腩−0.64腪 腩−1.09腪 population growth −0.03 −0.01 −1.08 −1.08 0.05 0.05 腩−0.22腪 腩−0.12腪 腩−0.86腪 腩−0.85腪 腩0.63腪 腩0.60腪 schooling 0.03** 0.03*** 0.02 0.02 0.10*** 0.10*** 腩2.24腪 腩2.38腪 腩1.09腪 腩1.26腪 腩2.54腪 腩2.56腪 openness 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.04* 0.04E腀2 0.05*** 0.06*** 腩4.67腪 腩3.78腪 腩2.71腪 腩2.18腪 腩5.90腪 腩6.51腪 Adjusted R2 0.11 0.11 0.04 0.04 0.63 0.64 腩銍腪腀腩腀腪鏠苍 t 鉬苰镜芵腃***腃**腃*苍芻苪芼苪靌裓邅辀艐膓腃艔膓腃10膓苅譁隳覼郠苰諼 議芷苩花苆苰躦芷腂 镜艓腀 野詏跂隱苌鎊躑苉非芦苩荃莓荰荎荧苌豶醪腆 腀腀腀Net Present Value of Debt/GDP苌荐腛荘
OLS 醀跬闏邔陀 荰荬莋腩賅鋨賸觊腪
Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic Linear Quadratic debt 1.07*** 2.85*** 1.23*** 3.52*** −1.12*** −1.64*** 腩3.05腪 腩3.60腪 腩2.47腪 腩3.03腪 腩−2.69腪 腩−1.70腪
debt2 −0.53*** −0.73**
0.12 腩−2.5腪 腩−2.19腪 腩0.60腪 terms of trade 0.62E腀2 0.36E腀2 −0.28E腀2 −0.69E腀2 0.29E腀02 0.29E腀2
腩1.05腪 腩0.60腪 腩−0.21腪 腩−0.51腪 腩0.62腪 腩0.63腪 population growth −0.01 −0.22E腀2 −0.94 −0.93 0.05 0.05
腩−0.08腪 腩−0.01腪 腩−0.77腪 腩−0.76腪 腩0.57腪 腩0.56腪 schooling 0.03** 0.03** 0.01 0.01 0.11*** 0.12*** 腩1.93腪 腩1.96腪 腩0.77腪 腩0.80腪 腩2.73腪 腩2.78腪 openness 0.03*** 0.02*** 0.04*** 0.03** 0.04*** 0.04*** 腩4.08腪 腩3.15腪 腩2.42腪 腩2.09腪 腩4.97腪 腩4.92腪 Adjusted R2 0.12 0.14 0.06 0.07 0.62 0.62 腩銍腪腀腩腀腪鏠苍 t 鉬苰镜芵腃***腃**腃*苍芻苪芼苪靌裓邅辀艐膓腃艔膓腃10膓苅譁隳覼郠苰諼 議芷苩花苆苰躦芷腂
艒腄跂隱苌鎊躑苖苌荃莓荰荎荧腆豶醪貋觊 腀荰荥荂腛莍苧苌酺鋨芵芽铱郼豠苌論豗芪腃跂隱腅鎊躑諔苅邬鞧芷苩芽苟苉 苍腃k躮苌還鋨苌跛苉腃r> 0 芨苦苑 <δ 0 芪镋靶苅芠苩芪腃芻苌閄趆苰隞芽 芵靌裓苅芠苩苌苍腃12荐腛荘苌芤芿苅腃艓荐腛荘苌苝苅芠苩腂花苌艓荐腛荘 苌還鋨鉬芩苧跂隱苌醝见芪鎊躑鞦苉閉苌荃莓荰荎荧苰苠芿苍芶苟苩鞝顟鉬 腩遽艔苌 A 鍟腪苰豶蹚芷苩苆腃跂隱腅GDP铤鞦苅520膓芩苧580膓腃跂隱较誄 裸費距覿鉬腅GDP铤鞦苅240膓芩苧270膓苌鉬苰苆苩¡3 腂花苌貋觊芩苧腃鎊躑 苉閉苌荃莓荰荎荧苰譹苚芷跂隱邅辀苍腃 HIPC苉醮芷苩鍲迣趑苅芳芦苍苈苍 芾觟轤苆貾苭芴苩苰芦苈芢腂酏軒苌荐腛荘苅腃芻苌鉬苌诟陔苉芠苩趑苍腃 荁 莓荓莉腃 荍荪荁荲荕荅腃荋荃荁荩腃荪荊莉荏荁腃 荔莓荧莁荶莊莓荖荹苌艔荊 趑腂賣軒苌荐腛荘苅苍 荍荪荁荲荕荅腃荋荃荁荩腃荪荊莉荏荁腃 荔莓荧莁荶莊 莓荖荹芨苦苑荸荧荩莀苌艔荊趑芪芠芰苧苪苩苉芷芬苈芢腂 腀跂隱苌鏱躟趀苰鞎苆芵苄腃郼豠苌荐腛荘苰覼鋨芵苄還鋨芷苩苆腃跂隱苌豗 邔苍腃苙苆英苇苌荐腛荘苉芨芢苄靌裓芩苂邳苌還鋨鉬芪鎾苧苪芽腂花苪苧苌 貋觊芩苧腃 HIPC苉醮芷苩轤跂隱趑苅芳芦腃跂隱苌醝见芪鎊躑苉閉苌賸觊苰 苠苂苙苇腃跂隱苌荘荧荢荎邅辀芪觟釥苅苈芢花苆芪貾芦苩腂芷苈苭芿腃釥醽 邔苌轤跂隱趑苍腃遽艔苉芨芢苄A鍟苦苨苠趶醤苉裊鉵芵腃荎莋腛荏荽莓苌 跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼苌襅醤腩wrong side腪苉苍裊鉵芵苄芢苈芢腂裈迣苌 花苆苍腃荔腛荸荃苅运觮芵芽貤讆苆韞躗芵芽貋觊苆苈苁苄芢苩腂芵芩芵腃荰 荥荂腛莍苧苉芨芢苄苍腃跂隱铤鞦苌賀詅鍉苈醝见芪腃豯跏邬銷鞦苌闏覻苉荽 荃荩荘苌襥访苰非芦苍芶苟苩苌苍腃跂隱腅GDP铤鞦苅艔腠90膓腃跂隱较誄 裸費距覿鉬腅GDP铤鞦苅腃艔腠50膓苆豶醪軨陀苉苦苨閝苍芠苩苠苌苌腃苭 苪苭苪芪鎾芽迣苌邔鉬苦苨芩苈苨鋡芢腂苂苜苨腃觟釥苈跂隱芪鉾郏芳苪苩苉 苂苪苄腃鎊躑苉閉苌襥访苰譹苚芷苦苨苠芩苈苨酏苉腩苭苪苭苪苌還鋨貋觊苦 苨花苌諔鎊躑苍醝釥豘購苉芠苩腪豯跏邬銷苉閉苌襥访苰非芦苩花苆苉苈苩腂花 苌貋觊苍腃轤跂隱趑苉苆苁苄腃諯裙苈花苆苅苍苈芢腂芶苂苍腃荰荥荂腛莍苧
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a腀花苌釣镜鍉苈貤讆苆芵苄腃Cole and Kehoe腭1996腮芪芠苩腂
s腀芿苈苝苉腃1990鑎躞鍟苉芨芯苩荔荵荔荮莉腅荁荴莊荊苌野詏跂隱醍詺腅GNP 铤鞦苍86膓苅芠苩苌苉野芵苄腃鎌鏬荁荗荁芨苦苑醾閽靭辔趑36.6膓腃莉荥莓荁 莁莊荊芨苦苑荊莊荵辔趑45.8膓腃鍲迣趑閽诏芪36膓苅芠苩腂
d腀Diwan and Rodrik腭1992腮苍花苌荦荂荘荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊苌釥芫芳苉譞離 苰鋦芵苄芢苩腂芷苈苭芿腃a郅芪鎊躑貈鋨苌跛苉鏠閔覻芳苪苄芢苩苌苆鎯芶苦 芤苉腃跂隱闔跏芪跂隱趑苌賂腘苌鎊躑视苉芨芢苄腃鏠閔覻芳苪苄芢苩苭芯苅苍 苈芢腂苜芽鎊躑视苌諏鍟芩苧芷苩苆腃跂負趑苖苌裚鍝醍詺苍詏邶苅裪鋨苅芠苩腂 s跂隱闔跏芪鎊躑苖苌觟轤苈郅苆芵苄鎭芭苆芢芤苌苍軀还鍉苉苠譞苭芵芢腂跂 負趑苖苌裚鍝苌譋雍苍鎖詙跂隱趑苌GDP苌艑膓芩苧艔膓苌荘荐腛莋苅芠苩苌 苅遛趏苈荦荂荘荃莓荚莓荥荂荵賸觊芪软苩苉苍辬芳芢苆芵苄芢苩腂 f腀D 苰跂隱苌詺雊覿鉬腃 Dυ( ) 苰跂隱 D 苌蹳迪镝覿鉬腃p 苰 D 苌鏱躟鍉诠靚蹳迪 苅苌覿詩苆芷苩腂花苌苆芫腃υ( )D =pD 芪邬鞧芵苄芢苩腂 g腀Cline腭1989腮苌躎蹚苉苦苩苆腃 跂隱譾跏莉荢荴荀腛诈郼苌銸鍟芩苧襅钼閪 苉裊鉵芷苩轤跂隱趑苍苙苆英苇苈芢腂襅钼閪苉裊鉵芷苩芽苟苉苍跂隱/GDP铤 鞦芪芠苩覼鋨苌苠苆苅200膓苰銴芦苈芯苪苎苈苧苈芢芪腃苙苆英苇苌轤跂隱趑 苍芻苌铤鞦芪30膓芩苧50膓苌铍裍苉芠苩腂荔荵荔荮莉腅荁荴莊荊辔趑苉芨芢苄 苠腃跂隱苰譽醬苉詧釥芳芹苄芢苁芽1980鑎釣賣钼芩苧1990鑎釣钼苎苉芩芯苄腃 70膓芩苧90膓軣苌铍裍鏠苉苆苇苜苁苄芢苩腂 HIPC41荊趑苌1995鑎芩苧1997鑎 苉芩芯苄苌閽诏铤鞦苍雱126膓苅芠苩腂苜芽200膓苰銴芦苩趑苍腃41荊趑銆11荊 趑苅芠苩腩Global Development Finance腃 World Bank, 1999腪腂Claessens腭1990腮 苠鎯靬苌躎蹚貋觊苰闱趐芵苄芢苩腂
h腀荒腛荦莓苍花苪苰鏠邶鍉跂隱譾跏腩endogenous debt relief腪苆苦苑腃跂隱趑 苌蹸閥芢鑜韍迳讵苰赬鞶芹芸苉跂隱譾跏苰貈鋨芷苩詏邶鍉跂隱譾跏腩exogenous debt relief腪苆详闊芵苄芢苩腂酏軒苍釦艒諺苉貈鋨芳苪苩芪腃賣軒苍釦艑諺苉 貈鋨芳苪苩腂 j腀Cline腭1995腮苍荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴苌 q 苌還鋨腩= 0.05腪苉譞離苰鋦芵苄芢苩腂 q 苍荴莍腛苅芠苩鉐鑎苌跂隱闔跏腩膁貳鞘閥芢腼遖譋靚躑腪苰GDP苅辜芵苄讁 苟苧苪苄芢苩芪腃荎莉荃莓苍荲莅莍腛膁莍荓荴苌 q 苌陻鞈苌鋨譠芩苧腃閪蹱苅 芠苩跂隱苌蹳迪镝覿鉬
(
υ( )D)
苍腃辫鞈苉躊苩跂隱闔跏苌誄裸費距覿鉬苌趇豶 苆觰軟芷苗芫苅芠苩苆芵苄芢苩腂芻苪苰GDP苅辜芷花苆苅鎾苧苪芽荎莉荃莓 苌 q 苌還鋨鉬苍1.25苅芠苩腂k腀花苌韡苆芵苄Krugman and Obstfeld腭1994腮苰蹑迆腂 l腀Easterly腭1994腮苍腃镮趢趑苅苍裪铊苉花苌裙躞鍟諔苌釣釖鉥韍邫芪鋡芢花 苆苰闱趐芵苄芢苩腂 ¡0腀花花苅苍腃Easterly腭2001腮苉苦苁苄跬邬芳苪芽跂隱较誄裸費距覿鉬苅鋨譠 芳苪芽跂隱苅豶蹚芳苪苄芢苩腂 ¡1腀荰荥荂腛莍苧苌荰荬莋荦腛荞苉該苗苄腃荔莓荶莋趑腃豶醪諺諔芪辭苈芢苌苍腃 k躮苌還鋨苉酉釰芳苪芽荒莓荧莍腛莋闏邔苌荦腛荞荁荸荃莉荲莊荥荂腛苌邧雱 苉苦苩腂30荊趑苌莊荘荧苍裈覺苌苆芨苨腂 荁莓荓莉腃荸荩莓腃荻莊荲荁腃 荵莋 荌荩荴荀荜腃 荵莋莓荗腃 荊莁莋腛莓腃銆覛荁荴莊荊腃荒莂莍腃 荒莓荓认顡趑腃 荒腛荧荗荻荁腛莋腃 荇荠草荳荁腃 荋莓荲荁, 荋腛荩腃荍荪荁腃 荍荪荁荲荕荅腃 荺莓荗莅莉荘腃 荐荪荁腃 荽荟荋荘荊莋腃 荽莉荅荂腃荽莊腃莂腛莊荞荪荁腃莂荕 莓荲腛荎腃荪荊莉荏荁腃 荪荗荆腛莋腃 莋莏莓荟腃荚荬荋莋腃 荖荇莉莌草荬腃 荧腛 荓腃 荅荋莓荟腃 荕莓荲荁腂 ¡2腀花苌荦腛荞苍http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/苦苨鏼軨苅芫苩腩2002鑎艗貎苉荁 荎荚荘腪腂 ¡3腀花苌鉬苍k躮苰跂隱闏邔 D 苉論芵苄铷閪芵苄荛莍苆芨芫腃跂隱闏邔苉苂芢 苄觰芭苆鎾苧苪苩腂 ¡4腀荰荥荂腛莍苧苌觱譁閪郍苉芨芢苄苍腃郠难闏邔芩苧鎊躑苰辜芢芽苙芤芪腃跂 隱苌豯跏邬銷苖苌閉苌荃莓荰荎荧苍釥芫芭苈苩腂 ¡5腀芿苈苝苉荰荥荂腛莍苧苍腃 HIPC荃荪荖荁荠荵苌雚镗苆芷苩 跂隱跭貸詺苅苍腃 荶莉荘苌豯跏邬銷苰鉂邬芷苩苉苍轜閪苅苍苈芢苆躎蹚芵苄芢苩腂 腫蹑赬閶貣腬
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