WITH THE THIRD WORLDl)
BY KEN MORITA
INTRODUCT10N
ThePurposeofthispaperistoinvestigatesomeecono,mieasp‑ ectsofinternationalrelationsbetween Poland and theThird Worldt Needless to say,as Gunnar Adler‑Karlsson l1] mentioned in his excellentcontribution in 1976,even today we do nothave enough informationandmaterial岳tostudyeconomicissuesbetweenEastand South2)scientifically.
However,Separatedfrom Adler‑Karlsson'sapproach,notfocus‑ ing on East‑South asawhole,butfocusing on only onememberof CMEA (CouncilforMutualEconomicAssistance)whichhasrelatively
l王
reliableinformationandmaterials,Ithinkwewillbeabletogoalittle
1)ThispaperwasbasicallypreparedwhileIstayedinWienerlnstitutfar lnternationaleWirtschaftsvergleiche(TheViennahstituteforComparative EconomicStudies).IwouldliketothanktheInstitute.Iam gratefulto EizoKaneyasu forhishelpfulsuggesti()nsregardingtopicsinthispaper andMasayoshiHommaforhishelpfulcommentsonstatisticaltreatment inthispaper,andMichaelEdwardCarrforhishelptomakethispaper readable.Anyremainirigerroristheatithor'sresponsibility.Ialsowishto thanktheSeimeikaiofMitsubishiBankforfinancialsupport.
2)ThedefinitionofEast,WestandSo山hareasfollowsrespectively:CMEA membercountries,Yugoslavia,People's Republic ofChina,and North KoreaareclassifiedasEast,OECD(OrganizationforEcono山icCooperation andDevelopment)exceptTurkeyasWest,therestoftheworldasSotlth,
〔125〕
furtherfrom now.In thispaper,focusing uponPolandandhertrade aspects,we‑considerthecaseofEast一･Southeconomicrelationsforone country.
Generally speaking,so far East‑South relations have rarely beenassessedfro叩 aneconomicpointofview.Mostacademic■consid‑
erationsregardingforelgn policytowardstheThirdWorldhavebeen limitedtoaspectsofmilitary affairs,internationalpoliticsanddiplo一 maticrelations.
Needlesstosay,foreignpolicytowardstheThirdWorldhasbeen crucially affected through East‑Westinternationalpolitical,military anddiplomaticrelations. Buteconomicfactors,Ithink,alsoworkto makeinternationalrelationsbetweenEastandSouth,especiallyinthe medium andlongrun.Thispaperisatrialtoextracteconomicfactors.
Thispaperdividedintotwoparts.InsectionI,Wedescribefacts onPolisheconomicrelationswiththeThirdWorldandindicatethree changesobservedinthe1970'Sespeciallyinthesecondhalfofthe1970 'S.Then,insectionII,Wetry toextracteconomicfactorsandmecha‑
nismswith whichtheaboveindicatedchangeswerecloselyrelated.
I. ECONOMIC RELATIONS OF POLAND W lTH THE THIRD W ORLD:CHANGES
In the economic relations ofPoland with the Third World3),
3)OnarticleswritteninPolishlanguageconcerningeconomicrelationsof Poland(andotherEuropeanCMEAcountries)withtheThirdWorld,forexample,
seePaszy丘ski[8],Zieli丘ski[16],Konieczny [5],Dobosiewicz[3].
Althoughtheyareexcellent,all()fthem discussthepresentconditionand emphasizethateconomicreformsoninternationaltradeisnecessary,none ofthem analyzesfactorsandinechanismsworkingintheaspectsoftheir economicrelations.
threefeaturesasfollowscan berecognized. First,Polish tradewith theThirdWorldconcentratesonarelativelysmallnumberandpartic‑ ularcountries.Second,Polandmainlyexportsmachineryandtransport equlpmenttOtheThirdWorldandmainlyImportsfood,raw materials andfuelsfrom them. Andthird,forPolandSouthistheonly"reglOn"
tohaveanethardcurrencytradesurplus.
A purpose.ofthissectionistoconsidersomeaspectsofchanges observed in abovementioned featuresin the1970'S,especially in the secondhalfofthe1970'S.
Concerning the first features,in the name listofparticular countrieswebasically cannotrecognizeany change,So wecan say thattheparticulartencountriesareasfollows:Brazil,Iran,Iraq,Libya,
Turkey,India,Egypt,Morocco,ArgentinaandPakistan也). However,in theperiod concerned here,Polish economicrelationswith theabove tencountrieshaveneverbeenunchanged.
In thispaper,asanindex tomeasuresignificanceofeconomic relations,weusethedirectionaltraderatio Fm｡where
F‑n
‑与 ( 吾+ 吾)
andwheretmnistheintertradebetweenthem thandnthcountries andTmandTnaretotaltradeofthem thandnthcountries5).
Changesofsingnificancein economicrelationsbetweenPoland and theaboveten countriesmeasured with theratioareasfollows.
4)ShareofthetencountriesofPolishtradewiththeThirdWorldwas66.4%
in1970and51.3% in1980.
SeeGlbwnyUrzadStatystycznyl4].
5)Smoker[10],p.161.
Theratioin 1980devid占dbytheratioin1970isusedasanumerical valueindicatingchangesofsignifcanceineconomicrelationsbetween twocountries.Numericalvaluesmorethan1.0can beinterpreted to show thateconomic relationshave become moreslgnificant,to the
?ontrary,numericalvalueslessthenl･Olesssignificant･Asamatterof fact,numericalvaluesofthedirectionaltraderatioconsiderablyfluctu‑
ateannually.However,ithink,trendsappearedduringabouttenyears can beclearlyunderstoCid.NumericalvaluesinTable1indicatecha‑
ngesofsignificanceineconomicrelationsbetweenPolandandtheten countries.Countrieswe clearly recognlZe aSbecomlng economically more significantpartners with Poland wereLibya,Braziland Iran,
while less significantpartners were India,Egyptand Pakistan.Aト thoughtheirdirectionaltraderatiosfluctuated,Iraq,TurkeyandMo‑
Table1.ChangesofSignificanceinthe EconomicRe一ationsofPo一and withthetenSouthCountriesi Brazil 2.10
Ⅰran 1.85 Libya 3.ウ5 Turkey 1.ll
Ⅰndia ･0.42.
Ⅰraq̲‑ 0.90 Egypt 0.36 Morocco 0.71
＼
A.rgentina .b.72
Notes:ⅠnthecaseofIran,theratioin 1977isdividedbytheratioin 1970,andinthecaseofIraq, theratioin1978isdividedby theratioin1970.
Sources:UnitedNations〔13〕.
roccohad fairlyslgnificanteconomictieswith Poland.Argentinaalso had annually fluctuated directionaltraderatiosand itseconomicties with Poland have notbeen close and have gradually become less significant.
Tables 2 and 3 show thesecond featuresthatmeansPoland mainly exported machinery and transportequlpment,and inlpOrted food,raw materials and fuels from them in 1975‑81.In 1980,for exJample,machinery and transportequipmenthad 55.8 % Share of totalexportsto theSouth,food and raw materialsand fuels96.4 % shareoftotalimportsfrom them .With regard to theimportsideof
Poland wecan recognizePOChangein commodity structure,however,
on,theexportsidetherecan beseen aclearly and constantly Increas‑
ing shareofmachinery and transportequlpment.
Tab一e 2･PolishExportstotheThirdWor一d‥ShareofCommodityGroups(%)
Yea; CTN1 CTN2⊥5 CTN.6‑8 CTN9 1977 49.9 31.0 10.0 9.1 1978 53̲.8 25.6 10.9 ‑9.7 1979 57.7 25.7 8.p7 8.0 1980 55̲.8 32.4 4.7 7.2
Notes:TheCMEA TradeNomenclature(CTN)distinguishesninecategories asfollows:
cTN1‑IndustrialMachinery and Equipment(including complete plants andspareparts)
CTN2‑Fuels,MineralRaw Materials,Metals CTN3‑Chemicals,Fertilizers,Rubber
CTN4‑BuildingMaterialsandConstructionParts
CTN5‑Raw MaterialsofVegetableandAnimalOrigin(non‑food) CTN6‑LiveAnimals(notforslaughter)
CTN7‑Raw MaterialsfortheProductionofFoodstuffs CTN8‑Foodstuffs
CTN9‑IndustrialCousumerGoods(otherthanfood)
Sources:WienerlnstitutftirInternationaleWirtschaftsvergleiche〔15〕.
Table3･PoJishlmportsfromtheThirdWorJd:ShareofCommodityGroups(%) Year CTN1 CTN2｢5 CTN6⊥8 CTN9
1975 0.5 76.2. 16..2 ‑7.2 1977 0.4 69.9 22.4 7.3, 1978̲ 0.3 65.1 31.5. 3.1 1979 0.2‑ 73.5‑i 23.6 2.7 1980 0.1 76.2 20.2 ̀.3.2 NotesandSources:asinTable2
Tables4and 5indicatethethirdfeatures,which meansthat theThird World istheonly "region"Supplying anethard currency tradesurplust()Poland. However,concernlng theabovementioned countries,in the 1970'S,Wecan havechangesin thethird features. Thatistosay,inthe1970'S,especiallyinthesecondhalfofthe1970'S, wecannotinsistthatthetencountrieswerenettradesurplussupply‑
ingcountriesasTable6says.
In short,in theperiod concerned herewecan recognizethree changesobservedineconomicrelationsbetweenPolandandtheThird World.They are,(1)economicrelationswith Libya,Braziland Iran becamemoreslgnificant;andtothecontrary,thosewithIndia,Egypt and Pakistan lesssignificant,(2)theexportshareofmachineryand TabJe4.AnnualTradeBalanceofPoland
(millionforeign‑exchangezlotyatcurrentprices)
Year Total East West Sputh 1970 ‑ 239.6 ‑ 828.3 306..4 282.0
･1975 ‑7490.0 1385.3 ‑9771.7 ,896.0 1980‑ ‑6930.3. ‑3391.9 ‑2569.8 ‑ 428.6 Notes:TurkeyisincludedinWest
Sources:asinTable2
Table5.CumulatedTradeBalanceofPoland
(m‖ionforeign‑exchangezlotyatcurrentprices)
Yearー Total East. West South
1980 ‑61037‑.6 ̲ ‑8924.8 ‑56958.7 4774.2 1981 ‑68521.i ‑16493.1 ‑58861.6 6761.01
Notes:asinTable 4 Sources:asinTable 2
Table6.Annua一 Trade Balance of Poland with the ten South Countries
(1000USdollar)
1971 40318 1972 2188p 1973 ‑ 14039 1974 ‑ 10229 1975. ll.3155 1976 129779 .1977. ‑14995.
1978 ｢134053̲. 1979 ‑498823 1980 ‑590026
Sources:asinTable 1
transportequipmenttotheThirdWorldincreased,(3)tradebalances with thetencountriesdeteriorated.
In the above three changes,the firstone is notsufficiently analyzedandneedsmoreinformationaboutdeterminantsofchangein slgnificance･In therestofthissection,we willtry to specify more slgnificantdeterminants.
Needlesstosay,therearemanyfactorsaffectingslgnificancein economicrelationsbetween two countries.Ⅰn thispaperwemeaslure
