世界のデブリ管理状況とJAXAの対応 Global Debris Mitigation Control and Corresponding Activities in JAXA 加藤

B1

世界のデブリ管理状況と

JAXA

Global Debris Mitigation Control and Corresponding Activities in JAXA

Akira Kato (JAXA)

デブリの発生防止管理は、国連や

IADC

JAXA

ISO

JAXA

JAXA

Debris mitigation effort is being progressed by the guidelines registered by the United Nations, and IADC, standards by the International Standardizing Organization (ISO), and other standards registered by the national governments and space agencies. The primary objectives of these rules are “Prevention of Break-ups”,

“Limitation of Releasing Objects during Operations”, “Disposal of Mission Terminated Spacecraft and Launch Vehicle Orbital Stages from the Useful Orbital Regions (with considering ground safety from the re-entering objects)”, “Avoiding damage caused by on-orbital collisions or impact”. Last February JAXA revised its Space Debris Mitigation Standards to be equivalent with “ISO-24113 Space Debris Mitigation Requirements”.

It will enable that the space system manufacturers deliver the merchandizes which comply with global debris

mitigation guidelines through the process that they try to develop the technology to comply with the JAXA

standard. In near future, the international trade market for spacecraft and launch services may add a

requirement to consider the orbital environment as a coessential condition to apply the contract. JAXA is

providing not only regulations but also various kinds of analysis tools and support documents to support

industry.

Global Debris Mitigation Control and Corresponding Activities in JAXA

਎⇇䈱䊂䊑䊥▤ℂ⁁ᴫ䈫 JAXA 䈱ኻᔕ

Akira KATO, Dr.ENG.

22 January 2013

5 ^th Space Debris Workshop, JAXA/HQ

Tokyo, Japan

Contents

1. Debris Mitigation Rules and Their Background 2. Global Situation and JAXA Standard

3. Support Documents and Analysis Tools

4. Further Subjects

1. Debris Mitigation Rules and Their Background

Figure 1 Number of Objects Newly Observed or Decayed

(or Escaped from Near Earth Orbit)

Now, approximately 22,000 observable objects are accumulated

in orbit (by US JSpOC).

Number of Objects Newly Observed or Decayed (or Escaped from Earth Orbit)

6 6 6 6

Fig.-3

Structure of JMR-003B

䊁䊷䊤䊥䊮䉫

Avoiding release of㩷

objects

Avoiding break-ups

Removal of operation ended systems

Re-entry

Safety Minimize damage caused by

collision with debris Control along Development Lifecycle Management

Principles

2. Documents, Definition

Relation with other requirements

4. Requirements Purpose

JMR-003B: JAXA Space Debris Mitigation Standard

1. General

5. Planning and Practices of Debris Mitigation Measures

Scope, Tailoring

2. Global Situation and JAXA Standard

8 8

Fig.-4㩷 International Framework for Debris Control

NASA S

a

US Government STD Practice

US FCC STD

NASDA Debris

STD

䌃䌎䌅䌓 Standard

Russian Space

Agency STD IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guide-lines

Support Doc.

䌅䌓䌁 Debris Handbook

UN COPUOS Best Practices for Sustainable Space Activities 䌉䌓䌏

Standard

Mitigation STD

European Code of Conducts for Space Debris Mitigation

UN COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines

1996 2002 2007 > Current

Number of debris 5,000

Number of debris 12,000

Chain reaction Environment

Standardization Spread to other Agreement among all Agreement in UN as a Next step to prevent in NASA & NASDA→㩷advanced agencies→ advanced nations → international framework→ catastrophic event

USA

Japan

France

Russia

European

Community

1999

Recommendation to remove the systems left in useful orbit French

Space Act

ECSS-U- AS-10C

2011

Measures ISO Standards (or Technical Reports) JAXA (JMR-003B) IADC Guidelines ^g

Limiting Debris Generation Released Objects General idea to refrain

from releasing objects ISO-24113 / h6.1.1 Required h 5.1

Slag from Solid Motor ISO-24113 / h6.1.2.2, h6.1.2.3 Required --

Combustion Products from Pyrotechnics

ISO-24113 / h6.1.2.1 (Combustion Products < 1 mm)

Combustion products

< 1 mm --

On-orbital Breakups

Intentional Destruction ISO-24113 / h6.2.1 Required h 5.2.3

Accident During Operation

ISO-24113 / h6.2.2 (Probability < 10^-3)

Required (Monitoring) (Probability < 10^-3)

h 5.2.2 (Monitoring) Post mission Breakup

(Passivation, etc.)

ISO-24113 / h6.2.2.3 (Detailed in ISO-16127)

(Probability < 10^-3) Required h5.2.1

Disposal at End of Operation GEO Reorbit at EOL

ISO-24113 / h6.3.2 (Detailed in ISO-26872) h6.3.2.2: 235 km+ (1,000࡮Cr࡮A/m),

e < 0.003 h6.3.1: Success Probability > 0.9

235 km+ (1,000࡮Cr࡮A/m) e < 0.003 Success Probability >0.9

h 5.3.1 235 km+ (1,000࡮Cr࡮A/m),

e < 0.003

LEO (MEO)

Reduction of Orbital Lifetime

ISO-24113 / h6.3.3 (Detailed in ISO-16164) h6.3.3.1: EOL Lifetime < 25years h6.3.1: Success Probability >0.9

EOL Lifetime < 25years Success Probability > 0.9

h 5.3.2 (Recommend 25 years) Transfer to Graveyard ISO-24113 / h6.3.3.2 (f)

(guarantee 100 years’ non-interference) Required Mentioned in recommendation-6

Other manners ISO-24113 / h6.3.3.2 (a) ~ (e) -- h 5.3.2

Re-entry Ground Casualty ISO-24113 / h6.3.4 (Detailed in ISO-27875) Ec < 10^-4 h 5.3.2

Collision Avoidance with Large Debris ISO-16158 Required (CAM, COLA㧕 h5.4

Protection from Impact of Tiny Debris ISO-16126 Required h 5.4

Table-1 global debris mitigation rules and JAXA standard

JAXA-003 was revised in the following yellow-colored parts

26872 Disposal of

satellite operating at geosynchron ous altitude

24113

Orbital debris

㫝6.3 Disposal from the protected

regions

16164 Disposal of

satellite operating in or

crossing Low Earth Orbit

16699 Disposal of orbital launch

stage

14200 Process-based Implementation of

Meteoroid and Debris Environment

Models (Orbital altitude below GEO+2000km)

Prevention of damage caused

by㩷Collision

TR-16158 Avoiding collisions among orbiting

objects: Best practices, data requirements,

and operational concepts

TR-11233 Orbit determination and estimation

CCSDS Conjunction Data Message 㫝6.3 .4

Re-entry Risk

Fig.-5 Structure of ISO Major Debris Related Standards

16127㩷 Prevention of

Break-up of Unmanned Spacecraft

㫝6.2 Avoiding break-ups

14222 Space environment

(natural &

artificial)—Earth Atmosphere density above

120km

16126 Assessment of survivability of unmanned

spacecraft against space

debris &

meteoroid impact ---

27852 Orbit lifetime

estimation 23339

Unmanned spacecraft residual propellant mass estimation for disposal manoeuvres

27875 Re-entry Risk Management for Unmanned Spacecraft &

Launch Vehicle Orbital Stages

Protection from collision / impact of debris &

meteoroid

not published yet TR: Technical Report)

㫝6.1 Avoiding release of㩷objects

TR-18146

Space Systems —Design and Operation Manual for Spacecraft Operated in the Debris Environment

Current Status of JAXA Debris Mitigation Standa rd

• Last February JAXA revised its Space Debris Mitigation Standards to be equivalent to “ISO-24113 Space Debris Mitigation Requirements”.

• Then the effort of the Japanese spacecraft manufacturers to comply with the JAXA standard will ensure that their

merchandizes would be accepted in the global market.

• In near future, the international trade market for spacecraft and launch services may require to consider the preservation of the orbital environment as an essential condition.

• JAXA䈲ᤓᐕ䇮ᓥ᧪䈎䉌ㆡ↪䈚䈩䈐䈢䊂䊑䊥⊒↢㒐ᱛᮡḰ䉕ISO䈱ᦨᣂⷙᩰ䈫ห

╬䈱ⷙ೙䈫䈭䉎䉋䈉䈮ᡷ⸓䈚䈢䇯

•

•

᧦ઙ䈮฽䉁䉏䉎䈖䈫䈏⠨䈋䉌䉏䉎䇯

3. Support Documents and

Analysis Tools

Subjects Support Tools and Documents 1 General Mitigation Tec.

-Collision probability - Orbital Lifetime

- Required Fuel for disposal -Re-entry survivability

(1) JERG-0-0-002A: JMR-003B Support Handbook (2) JAXA/DEMIST (Debris Mitigation Assessment Tool) (3) NASA/Debris Assessment Software (DAS)

(4) JAXA-CAA- 111003: L/V Debris Mitigation Design &

Operation Technique

(5) JAXA-CAA- TBD : S/C Debris Mitigation Design &

Operation Manual (to be released in 2013) 2 Debris Population Model (1) ESA/MASTER-2009, NASA/ORDEM

3 Orbital Lifetime (1) JAXA Orbital Lifetime Analysis Tool (ㅊ〔▤೙⸳஻ઃዻ ) 4 Protection Design (1) JERG -2-144 Debris Impact Survivability Assessment STD

(2) JERG-2-144-HB001䋺Debris Protection Design Manual (3) JAXA/TURANDOT (tool for debris impact probability and

damage analysis)

5 Re-entry Survivability (1) ORSAT-J (being revised every year) (2) CAA-109029: Re-entry analysis Manual

Table-2 Tools and Documents to Support Debris Mitigation Design and Operation JAXA䈪䈲ᡰេᢥᦠ䇮⸃ᨆ䉿䊷䊦䈭䈬䉕ឭଏ䈚䇮↥ᬺ⇇䈱䊂䊑䊥ኻ╷䉕ᡰេ䈚䈩䈇䉎䇯 JAXA is providing various documents and analysis tools to support industry.

㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷

Fig.-6 Support system for protection design

Risk Assess.

END Safe

Risky Debris Population Models

Protection Manual

S/C design architecture and orbital characteristics

Database: Materials, Ballistic limit

Protection Design

㽳re-allocation 㽴redundant design 㽵structural design change

Hyper-Velocity Impact Test and Analysis

Ballistic limit Eq.

Install the detectors on the world spacecraft and acquirer data, and analysis to know the distribution

Micro Debris Detector

( < 1mm) Improve world models

14 US and ESA support

TURANDOT Impact Probability and Damage analysis Tool

(1) JERG -2-144 Debris Impact Survivability Assessment STD (2) JERG-2-144-HB001䋺Debris Protection Design Manual

Fig.-7 Support system for re-entry safety

Re-entry risk analysis (ORSAT-J)

(CAA-109029: Re-entry analysis Manual)

Risk Assess. ^END

Safe

Risky

Orbital characteristics, structural design data Material data

Human population data

Controlled Re-entry

1) HTV and the second

stage of H-2B Improvement of tool

1) human interface 2) analysis functions

Spacecraft Design characteristics

Design for Demise

1) Not to use materials that

withstand high heat

2) Specific components demise easily CFRP/Al-skin tank

Higher precision Re- entry prediction

Survivability Analysis Tool

15

4. Further Subjects

0 10 20 30 40 50 1999-025 FENGYUN 1C DEB

1993-036 COSMOS 2251 DEB 2001-049 PSLV DEB 1992-088 COSMOS 2224 1997-051 IRIDIUM 33 DEB 1986-019 ARIANE 1 DEB 1994-029 PEGASUS DEB 1997-042 ABS 5 (AGILA 2) 1999-057 CZ-4 DEB 2012-025 H-2A DEB Other identified Objects Origin Unknown Object

Approaching Objects to JAXA S/C and their Ranking for Probability

Fig.-8: Top 20 space objects which generated many debris

(data from the Space Situation Record of USSTRATCOM, dated June 2012)

Fig.9: Distribution of Causes of Debris According to the Number of Fragments

The objects which generated less than 10 objects were excluded.

The events were assumed as “induced by failure” when spacecraft generated fragments within 5 years after launching, or the launch vehicles caused break-ups on the same day of launching.

Post-operation Break-ups by propulsion systems

25 %

Fig.-10 Number of failures each year indicating with their failed year

sensor (earth,

sun, star) wheel (reaction, momentum)

thruster

jairo prosessor electric circuit

ion engine software computor propellant other divices

unknown

Distribution of Failed Points in Attitude Control Sub-system

solar pannel

battery charging

devices paddle driver

power converter electric

circuit

charging device DC/DC Converter

harness software other device

unknown

Distribution of Failed Points in Power Control Sub-system

Human Factors

Lack of technologies Lack of Quality & Reliability

Intentional destruction

Natural Environment Induced Environment

Space Debris

collision or impact

Fig.-11 Failed components in the “attitude control” and “power control” sub-system

Further subject

Prevent from being repeated by newcomers

Challenging in space technology

environmental Pollution in

Space

Global Control and Cooperation for Mitigation

Historical One Cycle in Advanced Nations

Sharing knowledge and experiences through ISO

To prevent another cycling among newcomers

Protection and Avoidance Transparency and

Confidence Building Measures Remedy of Environment Monitoring and

Modeling Enforcement

Attention to the UN Activities on Long-Term

Sustainability of Space Activities

Attention to

ISO activities