Report Workshop Natech

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T itle

W orkshop on T ools for Natech R isk Management : practical demonstration of some available tools for Natech risk

assessment, risk mitigation and emergency planning for various types of natural hazards.

A uthor(s ) C ruz, A na Maria; A oki, S hin-ichi

C itation

T he D isaster Prevention R esearch Institute (D PR I), K yoto University.. (2017): 1-85

Is s ue D ate 2017-03-13

UR L http://hdl.handle.net/2433/226439

R ig ht

T ype B ook

T extvers ion publisher

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Practical demonstration of some available tools for Natech risk assessment, risk mitigation and emergency planning for various types of natural hazards.

WORKSHOP ON TOOLS FOR

NATECH RISK MANAGEMENT

DI SAST ER PREV EN T I ON RESEARCH I N ST I T U T E

13/03/2017

Kyoto University, Uji Campus

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WORKSHOP ON TOOLS FOR

NATECH RISK MANAGEMENT

Workshop Chairs:

Ana María Cruz, Kyoto University Shin-ichi Aoki, Osaka University

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WORKSHOP ON TOOLS FOR

NATECH RISK MANAGEMENT

Scientific Committee

Ana Maria Cruz (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University) Shin-ichi Aoki (Osaka University)

Naomi Kato (Osaka University) Irasema Alacantara (DPRI, UNAM)

Felipe Muñoz (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University, Universidad de los Andes)

Organizing Committee

Sasha Yoshioka (Kyoto University)

Horikomi Kaori (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University) Hitomu Kotani (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

Giuseppe Aliperti (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna) Marina Hamidzada (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

BonJun Koo (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

Maria Camila Suarez (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

Collaborators

Toyoko Shimizu (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University) Ryosuke Oba (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University) Liuyi Zhang (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

Mohamed Elagaty (Photography, DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University) Marina Hamidzada (Notes transcript, DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

Report

Ana Maria Cruz (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

Felipe Muñoz (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University, Universidad de los Andes) Giuseppe Aliperti (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna) Maria Camila Suarez (DPRI-DRS, Kyoto University)

Images

Cover: <a href='https://es.123rf.com/profile_torsakarin'>torsakarin / 123RF Foto de archivo</a> Page 10: <a href='https://es.123rf.com/profile_tomas1111'>tomas1111 / 123RF Foto de archivo</a>

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WORKSHOP ON TOOLS FOR

NATECH RISK MANAGEMENT

DPRI , K Y OT O U N I V ERSI T Y

WH AT I S A

N AT ECH

ACCI DEN T ?

A Natech accident is a technological accident triggered by natural hazard events such as

earthquakes, floods, storms, lightning, landslides, etc.

In this context, a

technological accident is understood as:

 Damage to and

hazardous-materials releases from fixed

chemical plants.

 Damage to and

hazardous materials releases from oil and

gas pipelines.

At least 50% of surveyed EU Member States and OECD

Member Countries have experienced one or more Natech accidents, sometimes with fatalities and injuries,

environmental and/or economic damage.

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T ABLE OF CON T EN T S

Acknowledgments 7

Summary 8

Description and opening ceremony 9

SECTION 1 Chair: Prof. Ana Maria Cruz 11

State of the Art in Natech Risk Management

María Camila Suarez, DPRI, Japan; Felipe Muñoz Giraldo, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia; Ana Maria Cruz, DPRI, Japan

RAPID-N: Earthquake Natech Risk Assessment

Elizabeth Krausmann, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy

SECTION 2 Chair: Prof. Shin-ichi Aoki 13

Natech Module in ARIPAR: Benefits and Limitations

Valerio Cozzani, Università di Bologna, Italy

Applications of ARIPAR to a Refinery Subject to Earthquake andTsunami Hazards in Italy

Ernesto Salzano, Università di Bologna, Italy

SECTION 3 Chair: Prof. Felipe Muñoz 16

Oil and gas releases during large earthquakes and tsunami

Shin-ichi Aoki and Kato Naomi, Osaka University, Japan

Development of simulation tool for fire spread on floating oil in tsunamis

Tomoaki Nishino, Building Research Institute, Japan

Landslide and Pipeline Natech Risk Assessment Tool

Mauricio Sánchez and Felipe Muñoz Giraldo, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia

SECTION 4 Chair: Prof. Irasema Alcantara 20

Radiation Measurement for Protection of Children in Fukushima

Takeshi Komino, CWS, Japan

Discussion and Wrap-up Panel Session

Panelists: Elisabeth Krausmann, Ernesto Salzano, Valerio Cozzani, Takeshi Komino, Tomoaki Nishino, Naomi Kato, Felipe Muñoz, Mauricio Sánchez

ANNEXES 24

Annex 1. Group photo Annex 2. Program

Annex 3. Presentations

Annex 4. Number of Participants per Country and Participant Affiliations

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The material in this report may be reproduced, in

whole or in part, if cited as follows:

Cruz Lab, Workshop on Tools for Natech Risk

Management, Center for Disaster Reduction Systems,

DPRI, Kyoto University, Japan, Report, 13 March,

2017.

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This publication was put together by a group of international experts under the auspice of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University.

Its content reflects the multi-perspective contributions and international experiences presented at Kyoto University, Uji Campus, in March 2017, within the framework of the Workshop on Tools for Natech Risk Management.

We would like to thank the workshop speakers Prof. Kaoru Takara, Director, DPRI, Kyoto University; Prof. Shin-ichi Aoki, Osaka University; Mr. Jaime Pacheco, First Secretary of the Colombian Embassy in Japan; Ms. María Camila Suarez, DPRI; Prof. Felipe Muñoz Giraldo, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia; Dr. Elizabeth Krausmann, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy; Prof. Valerio Cozzani, Università di Bologna, Italy; Prof. Ernesto Salzano, Università di Bologna, Italy; Emeritus Prof. Naomi Kato, Osaka University, Japan; Dr. Tomoaki Nishino, Building Research Institute, Japan; Prof. Mauricio Sánchez, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia; and Dr. Takeshi Komino, CWS, Japan.

We would also like to acknowledge the contribution of the members of the Disaster Risk Management Laboratory (Cruz Lab) to the preparation of this report under the guidance of Prof. Felipe Munoz Giraldo.

The Natech Workshop was partly funded by the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, for which we are grateful.

About the Disaster Risk Management Laboratory (Cruz Lab):

Our lab is multidisciplinary, integrating skills and knowledge from a variety of disciplines such as engineering, sociology, economics, and disaster risk management (DRM), benefiting synergistically by working in association with local, national and

international students, researchers and faculty (www.natech.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp). Cruz

Lab is part of the Center for Disaster Reduction Systems (DRS) at DPRI, Kyoto

University. Its purpose is to promote research and practices to build a safe and resilient

society by reducing disaster risks.

AKNOWLEDGMENTS

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The Workshop on Tools for Natech Risk Management was organized and hosted by the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) at Kyoto University, Uji Campus, on

March13th_{2017. The Natech workshop was carried out in an effort to do a hands-on}

practical demonstration of some available tools for Natech risk assessment, risk mitigation and emergency operations planning for various types of natural hazards. The workshop was attended by participants from 12 countries, including experts, students and stakeholders involved in Natech disaster risk reduction and similar topics.

The event included talks on available Natech tools, their strengths, implementation and development of case studies. A discussion of key elements and needs in the Natech context was the way to conclude the workshop. Identification of priorities, gaps and future research road map were the main outcomes of the event.

SUMMARY

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9 DESCRI PT I ON

AN D OPEN I N G

CEREM ON Y

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On 13th_{March 2017, the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI, Kyoto}

University) hosted the Workshop on Tools for Natech Risk Management. Participants

included representatives from Afghanistan, Bulgaria, China, Colombia, Egypt, Germany, Japan, India, Italy, Mexico, South Korea and Philippines (see Annex 4). The event was opened by the Director of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Prof. Kaoru Takara; Prof. Ana Maria Cruz, DPRI, KU; Prof. Shin-ichi Aoki, Osaka University; and Mr. Jaime Pacheco, First Secretary of the Colombian Embassy in Japan. Prof. Takara highlighted Natech’s place in the Sendai framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

During the opening ceremony speakers remarked the fact that Natech is a very recent concept and mentioned the need to better understand its complex accidental dynamics within interdisciplinary teams. They encouraged researchers to continue working towards prevention, mitigation and protection measures. The Colombian Embassy manifested their interest to support the development of research on Natech issues.

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12 State of the Art in Natech Risk Management

María Camila Suarez, DPRI; Felipe Muñoz Giraldo, Universidad de los Andes

Colombia; Ana Maria Cruz, DPRI

This presentation was given by María Camila Suarez, a Ph.D. student at DPRI. She presented the state of the art in Natech Risk Management based on two stages of analysis. The first stage focused on a review of the literature concerning potential Natech accidents, mainly an apriori approach, and the second stage focused on a review of the literature concerning past Natech events, a posteriori approach. Classification by hazards and different types of analysis for the methodologies proposed so far has been conducted. The findings demonstrated the necessity for further research and outlined the way forward on this relatively recent topic.

RAPID-N: Earthquake Natech Risk Assessment

Elisabeth Krausmann, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy

RAPID-N is a web based semi-quantitative tool for Natech risk assessment and mapping developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. Rapid-N includes an integrated methodology able to analyze Natech risks by estimating the natural-hazard severity (e.g. earthquake) at a hazardous site, the damage caused by the natural hazard using fragility curves, and the consequences of the damage. The results give an overview of the impacted area around the accident site with respect to heat radiation and toxic concentrations. The JRC is the science body of the European Commission. Its mandate is to support policy making by providing scientific guidance to the European Commission. Through its activities, the JRC also supports EU Member States and operators in the identification and reduction of Natech risks.

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14 Natech Quantitative Risk Assessment by the ARIPAR software

Valerio Cozzani, LISES-DICAM, Università di Bologna, Italy

Natech events are characterized by a high level of complexity. They are categorized among the high impact, low probability events. As a consequence, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of Natechs is a challenging issue. The ARIPAR-GIS tool was developed under the ARIPAR project, which started since 1988. ARIPAR-GIS considers the impact area, vulnerability centers, demographics, meteorology and a combination of scenarios (e.g. 10,000-200,000 combination of scenarios) to give risk indexes as an output. For each risk source, event and failure trees are used, as well as geographical information. Vulnerability maps of the final scenarios are managed by the software. It has been applied to analyze several Italian industrial areas and it has proved to be a robust tool. The first complete approach to

Natech QRA was published in 2007, but it needed a computational tool. As a consequence, ARIPAR-GIS has now been modified to implement a specific method for Natech QRA, allowing the calculation of the specific contribution of Natech scenarios to the overall industrial risk figures.

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15 Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake and Tsunami Natech

scenarios

Ernesto Salzano, Università di Bologna, Italy

The complexity of Natech scenarios is such that Quantitative Risk Assessment requires a complex, multi-disciplinary analysis, involving several engineering and natural science disciplines. Under the STREST project, the fishbone diagram of industrial risk analysis was adopted and natural hazards and their interactions incorporated in order to analyze a case study of a refinery in Milazzo, Italy. Earthquake and Tsunami were the natural hazards considered. Thus, Probabilistic Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PSHA) were developed. Results were obtained using the Risk Curves/Effect TNO tool. The results given by the tool are based on available standards for vulnerability and for

consequence analysis. Therefore, they can only be used for comparative purposes and as preliminary inputs for land use planning. It was concluded that the general complexity of Natech scenarios, which includes natural hazard analysis, is partially reduced by the similarities industrial facilities share worldwide and the availability of data associated to them .

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17 Oil and Gas Releases during Large Earthquakes and Tsunami

Shin-ichi Aoki and Naomi Kato, Osaka University, Japan

Osaka bay is exposed to several hazards such as floods, earthquakes, tsunami and storm surge. The consequences of oil and gas releases due to a large earthquake and associated tsunami in Osaka Bay represent a high risk for industrial facilities and neighboring communities. Thus, a research initiative for Disaster Prevention of Petrochemical Complexes (industrial parks) which includes the case study of the Sakai-Senboku industrial area, has been presented. Onshore and offshore propagation of damages were considered, although consequences and impacts were mostly present offshore. Numerical simulations of tsunami propagation and dispersion of spilt oil, including oil spill from storage tanks due to sloshing using Meshless Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method were developed. Furthermore, laboratory experiments on tsunami-induced hydrodynamic forces at the

harbor and 2D experiments on wave forces acting on a tank have been used in order to validate a proposed model, considering similarities and scale effects. Community-engagement initiatives have also been carried out exchanging opinions with residents near the industrial park areas. Finally, countermeasures that are being developed such as reduction of tsunami energy by flexible pipes and blocking tsunami by an earth bank were presented.

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18 Development of Simulation Tool for Fire Spread on Floating Oil

in Tsunamis

Tomoaki Nishino, Building Research Institute, Japan

The tsunami following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake caused spreading of fires at Kesennuma Bay. A large quantity of oil, which had been spilled from destroyed oil tanks, contributed to such tsunami-induced fires. Some of the fires ignited tsunami refuge buildings, and people who had escaped to the buildings from the tsunami were exposed to the fires. In addition, the fires spread to forests, resulting in wildfires involving 231 ha. These facts have raised concern among people whom must evacuate for future tsunamis of the risk from tsunami-induced fires. Nevertheless, adequante measures have not yet been taken in recent disaster prevention planning, because there is no method for predicting the big picture of tsunami-induced fires.

The Building Research Institute has been developing a

computational model for fire spread on floating oil in tsunamis. The model regards the spreading fires on the sea as an assembly of burning floating oil particles, and tracks the burning zone by predicting the locations and combustion behaviors of individual particles in time series. The spreading fires on Kesennuma Bay were numerically analyzed. As a result, it was concluded that the qualitative trend of the fire spread was well predicted by the model, compared with the actual conditions which were determined from film records and survey data.

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19 Landslide and Pipeline Natech Risk Assessment Tool

Mauricio Sánchez and Felipe Muñoz Giraldo, Universidad de los Andes,

Colombia

A quantitative-mechanistic model for assessing the probability of failure along pipelines due to their interaction with landslides, named GeoRisks was presented. The objective was to develop an integrated model to evaluate the risk of pipeline subjected to multiple natural hazards. The importance of managing problem complexity was considered. Topography, geotechnical information, hydrology, and pipeline information have been considered in the analysis. Cost analysis was also presented with a particular focus on cost-efficient design. Finally, criteria for risk management and structured hierarchical decision processes have been identified.

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21 Radiation Measurement for Protection of Children in Fukushima

Takeshi Komino, CWS, Japan

This presentation focused on the important question of how to mitigate nuclear-related risks analyzing the position of the government and providing real-time data. The presentation showed that under the Technical Hazards Working Session of the Sendai Framework, a call for transparent disclosure of risks was made. The question on “how are the lessons from Fukushima being used to mitigate future losses?” was the starting point to develop the project for Sharing Lessons and Protecting the Vulnerable communities. As a result, a method that is used to measure individual levels of radiation in Fukushima was developed. The tool has been used to identify radiation hotspot, particularly in

schools and other public areas which then leads to on-the-spot decontamination efforts led by local government.

The NGO CWS Japan operation pillars are related to humanitarian development assistance, advocacy and capacity building, and it works with a NGO called Shalom on the project presented.

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Discussion and Wrap-up Panel Session

Chair: Ana Maria Cruz

Panelists: Elisabeth Krausmann, Ernesto Salzano, Valerio Cozzani, Takeshi

Komino, Tomoaki Nishino, Naomi Kato, Felipe Muñoz, Mauricio Sánchez.

The discussion and wrap-up panel session was the opportunity to evaluate overall awareness concerning Natech risks, assess research achievements and gaps, and delineate the main conclusions from the Workshop. The panelists agreed that awareness concerning Natechs risks has increased. It was also mentioned that there is a need for interaction between people from different disciplines and exchanges within different geographical areas in order to provide guidance for industrial plants and local governments. As a consequence, integrated and useful models are needed to help decision makers take the right decisions. However, several issues remain unsolved such as how to use and interpret model results to adequately inform decision making.

All the panelists agreed that uncertainty characterization is a central issue. It needs to be further addressed and explained, in order to have models that serve a purpose and can be implemented by authorities and stakeholders. One of the panelists noted “Models may not yet address uncertainties and are not yet dynamic”. But the question on how to include changeability, adaptability and flexibility in these models is still not resolved. For example, issues related to infrastructure deterioration and depreciation over time are not yet incorporated in current risk assessment models.

The importance of estimating economic losses from Natech accidental scenarios and the need to have more precise estimation tools which consider direct and indirect damages and losses was highlighted.

Another aspect that was discussed during the session was data availability. Several panelists manifested the need to have databases based on detailed descriptions of past accident scenarios, and agreed efforts to promote data sharing and recording is crucial for lessons learning. Another problem identified is the need to work towards improved risk communication and disclosure of risk information by industry to potentially affected communities. Thus, a call was made for inclusion of more social science approaches and risk communication fields in future Natech studies.

One of the participants noted that Natech risk management focuses on industrial aspects and exposure, but that it is also a risk governance problem. Risk management is in the

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government officials is needed. In developing countries, the problems are even greater due to lack of economic and human resources, and so on. The need for an international standard for Natech risk management, and the importance of constructing an international framework on Natechs was noted. In this context, the question concerning “What are key criteria needed for a Natech performance rating system?” was raised. The answers provide by the panelists and participants touched upon several issues including:

 Awareness about the problem

 Identification of exposure to hazards

 Knowledge creation (chemicals, quantities, etc.)

 Definition of natural hazard and level of risk

 Facilities should look at events beyond design level

 Emergency response (not captured by QRA)

 Emergency planned made by public authority.

 Early warning /forecasting in case of storms, flood etc.

 Incentives for companies

 Indicators for the relation between land use planning and governance.

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24 Annexes

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25 Annex 1:

Group Photo

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26 PART I CI PAN T S

Standing, left to right (First row): Ana Maria Cruz, Kaoru Takara, Valerio

Cozzani, Angelica Baylon, Sandhya Babel, Jaime Pacheco, Ma. Camila Suarez, Marina Hamidzada, Luiyi Zhang.

Standing, left to right (Second row): Takeshi Komino, Dewi Dimyati, Ahmed

Ibrahim, Ernesto Salzano, Shin-ichi Aoki, Shinichi Yamamoto, Horikomi Kaori, Felipe Muñoz.

Standing, left to right (Third row): Bonjun Koo, Daniel Cardoso, Atsushi

Aoyama, Alexander Guzman, Elizabeth Krausmann, Toma Stoyanov, Uta Reichardt, Mauricio Sánchez, Hirokazu Tatano, Tomoaki Nishino, Irasema Alcantara, Giuseppe Aliperti, Hitomu Kotani.

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27 Annex 2:

Program

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Colla orative Resear h Hu , Roo

Buildi g 77, Uji Ca pus, Kyoto U iversity

Mar h , 7

: ‐ :

Ope i g e e o

Kaoru Takara, Dire tor, DPRI, KU A a María Cruz, DPRI, KU Shi ‐i hi Aoki, Osaka U iversity

Jai e Pa he o, First Se retary of the Colo ia E assy i Japa

Chair: A a Maria

Cruz

: ‐ : State of the A t i Nate h Risk Ma age e t María Ca ila Suarez, DPRI; Felipe Muñoz Giraldo, U iversity of A des,

Colo ia; A a Maria Cruz, DPRI

: – : RAPID‐N: Ea th uake Nate h Risk Assess e t _{Eliza eth Kraus a , Joi t Resear h Ce tre, Europea Co} _{issio , Italy} : ‐ : Coffee Break

Chair: Shi ‐ichi

Aoki

Nate h Qua titati e Risk Assess e t the ARIPAR soft a e : ‐ : Valerio Cozza i, U iversity of Bolog a, Italy

: ‐ : Qua titati e Assess e t of Ea th uake a d Tsu a i Nate h s e a ios. _{Er esto Salza o, U iversity of Bolog a, Italy} : ‐ : Lu h

Chair: Felipe Muñoz

: ‐ : Oil a d gas eleases du i g la ge ea th uakes a d tsu a i _{Shi ‐i hi Aoki a d Kato Nao i, Osaka U iversity, Japa} : – : Da age a d Effe ts Caused Tsu a i Fi es _{To oaki Nishi o, Buildi g I stitute, Japa}

: ‐ : La dslide a d Pipeli e Nate h Risk Assess e t Tool _{Mauri io Sá hez a d Felipe Muñoz Giraldo, U. A des, Colo} _ia : – : Coffee Break

Chair: Irase a

Alca tara : ‐ :

Tool fo Assess e t of Radiatio Hotspots

Takeshi Ko i o, CWS, Japa

Chair: A a Maria

Cruz : ‐ :

Dis ussio a d W ap‐up Pa el Sessio

Pa elists: Elisa eth Kraus a , Er esto Salza o, Valerio Cozza i, Takeshi Ko i o, To oaki Nishi o, Nao i Kato, Felipe Muñoz, Mauri io

Sá hez

: – : Closi g Ce e o

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29 Annex 3:

Presentations

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Ad a ed Disaste Ma age e t

Si ulato ADMS . E e ge Ma age e t Si ulatio

Gua dia Ce te s T ai i g i atu al a d a ade disaste s

The Fi di g I di iduals fo Disaste a d

E e ge Respo se FINDER Natu al phe o e o ea th uakes a d a ala hes

Cli ada Catast ophe odeli g P o a ilisti ulti-haza d isk assess e t

SNOWPACK Multi-pu pose s o a d la d-su fa e odel

RAPID-N Nate h isk appi g

PANR P eli i a Assess e t of Nate h Risk i u a a eas.

TRAS Te h i al Rules o P o ess

Safet TRAS P e autio s a d Measu es Agai st the Haza d Sou es P e ipitatio a d Floodi g

TRAS P e autio s a d Measu es Agai st the Haza d Sou es Wi d, S o Loads a d _{I e Loads}

TRAT-GIS Qua titati e isk assess e t o putatio al tool applied to the la d t a spo t _{of da ge ous goods} Tsu a i-I du ed Fi e Sp ead Si ulatioTsu a i o se ue es

La dslide a d pipeli e Nate h Risk

Assess e t Tool Qua titati e- e ha isti odel fo assessi g the p o a ilit of failu e alo g pipeli es due to thei i te a tio ith la dslides

ARIPAR GIS - Soft a e Tool fo A ea Risk Assess e t a d Ma age e t

Qua titati e a ea isk assess e t tool to e aluate the isk f o ajo a ide ts i i dust ial a eas he e haza dous su sta es a e sto ed, p o essed a d t a spo ted.

Tool fo Assess e t of Radiatio

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La dslide a d pipeli e Nate h Risk

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ARIPAR GIS - Soft a e Tool fo A ea Risk Assess e t a d Ma age e t

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Othe Tools

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Missi g ap p oje t Map up of ul e a le a eas efo e the disaste o u s

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x A io e, G. et al A GIS- ased tool fo the a age e t of i dust ial a ide ts t igge ed ol a i ash fallouts. Jou al of Risk Resea h. : - .

x A to io i, G. et al. A ethodolog fo the ua titati e isk assess e t of ajo a ide ts t igge ed seis i e e ts. Jou al of Haza dous Mate ials : –

x A to io i, G. et al. De elop e t of a f a e o k fo the isk assess e t of Na-Te h a ide tal e e ts. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet : –

x A to io i, G. et al. Qua titati e assess e t of isk due to NaTe h s e a ios aused floods. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet : –

x Ba a H. .Japa I ter atio al Cooperatio Age c .A ea Busi ess Co ti uit Ma age e t, S ala le C oss Se to Coo di atio F a e o k of Disaste Ma age e t fo Busi ess Co ti uit , to i i ize lo al to glo al e o o i i pa t

x Bas o, A. a d Salza o, E. The ul e a ilit of i dust ial e uip e t to tsu a i. Jou al of Loss P e e tio i the P o ess I dust ies.

-x Basolo, V. et al The Effe ts of Co fide e i Go e e t a d I fo atio o Pe ei ed a d A tual P epa ed ess fo Disaste s. E i o e t a d Beha io . :

-x Busi i, V. et al. Defi itio of a sho t- ut ethodolog fo assessi g ea th uake- elated Na-Te h Risk.Jour al of Hazardous Materials : –

x Cozza i, V. et al. I dust ial a ide ts t igge ed flood e e ts: A al sis of past a ide ts. Jou al of Haza dous Mate ials , –

x C uz, A. M. et al. . State of the A t i Nate h Risk Ma age e t.Europea Co issio - JRC a d U ited Natio s-ISDR. -x C uz, A. M., a d N. Okada . Methodolog fo p eli i a assess e t of Nate h isk i u a a eas.Natural Hazards, : – x C uz, A. M., a d E. K aus a . Haza dous Mate ials Releases f o the Offsho e Oil a d Natu al Gas Fa ilities Follo i g

Hu i a es Kat i a a d Rita.Jour al of Loss Pre e tio i the Process I dustries, , - .

x C uz, A. M. Nate h Disaste s: A Re ie of P a ti es, Lesso s Lea ed a d Futu e Resea h Needs.E erge c Ad i istratio a d Pla i g Progra , U i ersit of North Te as a d DRS, Disaster Pre e tio Research I stitute, K oto U i ersit

x Di F a o, S. a d Sal ato i, R. Cu e t situatio a d eeds i a - ade a d Nate h isks a age e t usi g Ea th O se atio te h i ues. Re ote Se si g Appli atio s: So iet a d E i o e t : - .

x El Hajj, C. . Methodologie pou l'a al se et la p e e tio du is ue d'a ide ts te h ologi ues i duits pa l'i o datio Nate h d'u site i dust iel. These p ése teé pa E ole Natio ale Supe ieu e des Mi es de Sai t-Etie e. F e h

x El Hajj, C. et al . De elop e t of ge e i o -tie diag a s of a ide tal s e a ios t igge ed floodi g of i dust ial fa ilities Nate h . Jou al of Loss P e e tio i the P o ess I dust ies :

-x Fa o i o, G. et al . Qua titati e isk a al sis of oil sto age fa ilities i seis i a eas. Jou al of Haza dous Mate ials A : – x The Joi t Co ittee of I do esia a d Japa o Disaste Redu tio . Buildi g the Resilie e of I do esia a d its Co u ities to

Disaste s fo the Ne t Ge e atio

x Ki e idjia , A. et al Seis i Risk to Majo I dust ial Fa ilities. Sta fo d U i e sit , Depa t e t of Ci il a d E i o e tal E gi ee i g. Repo t No.

x Kishi oto, A. a d Willot, A. I te dis ipli a stud o the itigatio of NaTe h isks i a o ple o ld: lea i g f o Japa e pe ie e appl i g ERRA NaTe h ethod, iNTeg-Risk p oje t

x Ki oha a, K; a d A. M. C uz I ide e of he i al a ide ts aused atu al haza d e e ts i Japa . P o eedi gs of the I te atio al S posiu o Natu al a d Te h ologi al Risk Redu tio at La ge I dust ial Pa ks NATECH , Naka oshi a Ce te , Osaka U i e sit , Osaka, Japa , - Ja ua Fo th o i g .

x K aus a ,E., a d Mushta , F. A ualitati e Nate h da age s ale fo the i pa t of floods o sele ted i dust ial fa ilities. Natu al Haza ds : – .

x K aus a , E., C uz, A. M. a d Affelt a ge , B. Nate h A ide ts at I dust ial Fa ilities-the Case of the We hua Ea th uake. I te atio al Co fe e e o Risk A al sis a d C isis Respo se. - .

x K aus a , E. , E. A al sis of Nate h isk edu tio i EU Me e States usi g a uestio ai e su e . Eu opea Co issio JRC.

-x K aus a , E. et al. I dust ial a ide ts t igge ed ea th uakes, floods a d light i g: lesso s lea ed f o a data ase a al sis. Natu al Haza ds, : –

x K aus a , E. a d A. M. C uz . I pa t of the Ma h, , G eat East Japa ea th uake a d tsu a i o the he i al i dust .Natural Hazards, : - .

x K aus a , E; C uz, A.M.; Salza o, E. Nate h Risk Assess e t a d Ma age e t: Redu i g the Risk of Natu al Haza d I pa ts o Haza dous I stallatio s. Else ie . Pee e ie ed.

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x La du i, G. et al. Release of haza dous su sta es i flood e e ts: Da age odel fo at osphe i sto age ta ks. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet . : –

x La du i, G. et al. Qua titati e Risk Assess e t of Cas adi g E e ts T igge ed Floods. Che i al E gi ee i g T a sa tio s :

-x La du i, G. et al. Release of haza dous su sta es i flood e e ts: Da age odel fo at osphe i sto age ta ks. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet . : –

x La za o, G. et al Seis i ul e a ilit of atu al gas pipeli es. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet : – x Li dell, M. K. a d R. W. Pe Ide tif i g a d a agi g o joi t th eats: Ea th uake-i du ed haza dous ate ials eleases i the

US. Jou al of Haza dous Mate ials :

l-x Li dell, M. K. a d R. W. Pe Haza dous ate ials eleases i the No th idge Ea th uake: I pli atio s fo seis i Risk Assess e t. Risk A al sis. : - .

x Li dell, M. K., et al Wh People Do What The Do to P ote t Agai st Ea th uake Risk: Pe eptio s of Haza d Adjust e t Att i utes. Risk A al sis. :

-x Ma zo, E. et al Defi itio of a sho t- ut ethodolog fo assessi g the ul e a ilit of a te ito i atu al–te h ologi al isk esti atio . Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet : - .

x Mas s, J. A. et al High I pa t/ Lo F e ue e t e e e e ts: E a li g Refle tio a d Resilie e i a H pe - o e ted Wo ld. P o edia E o o i s a d Fi a e :

-x Me g, Y. et al. Method to a al ze the egio al life loss isk ai o e he i als eleased afte de astati gea th uakes: A si ulatio app oa h. P o ess Safet a d E i o e tal P ote tio :

-x Milazzo, M. F. et al Risks asso iated ith ol a i ash fallout f o Mt.Et a ith efe e e to i dust ial filt atio s ste s. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet : –

x Ne i, A. et al A odel fo p o ess e uip e t da age p o a ilit assess e t due to light i g. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet : – .

x Ne i, A. et al Assess e t of light i g i pa t f e ue fo p o ess e uip e t. Relia ilit E gi ee i g a d S ste Safet : – .

x Okada et al., The Easte Japa G eat Ea th uake Disaste : O e ie a d Co e ts, I t. J. Disaste Risk S i. , : – x O ga izatio fo E o o i Coope atio a d De elop e t OECD . Repo t of the o kshop o Nate h isk a age e t, D esde ,

Ge a , - Ma . Se ies o Che i al A ide ts No. .

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x O ga izatio fo E o o i Coope atio a d De elop e t OECD . Adde du . Guidi g P i iples fo he i al a ide t p e e tio , p epa ed ess a d espo se dED to add ess atu al haza ds t igge i g te h ologi al a ide ts

Nate hs . Se ies o Che i al A ide ts No. .

x Pa i o, A. et al E aluati g the st u tu al p io ities fo the seis i ul e a ilit of i ilia a d i dust ial aste ate t eat e t pla ts. Safet S ie e, Spe ial Issue A ti le: Risk a d la d-use.

x Ras usse , K. Natu al e e ts a d a ide ts ith haza dous ate ials.Jour al of hazardous aterials. : -x Ru ka t, P. ). Haza dous su sta es eleases asso iated ith Hu i a es Kat i a a d Rita i i dust ial setti gs,

Louisia a a d Te as. Jou al of Haza dous Mate ials. : –

x Se gul, H.; N. Sa tella; L. J. Stei e g; A. M. C uz . A al sis of haza dous ate ial eleases due to atu al haza ds i the U ited States.Disasters. : - .

x Stei e g, L. J., a d A. M. C uz . Whe atu al a d te h ologi al disaste s ollide: lesso s f o the Tu ke ea th uake of August , .Natural Hazards Re ie, : - .

x Stei e g, L. J., H. Se gul, a d A. M., C uz . Nate h isk a d a age e t: a assess e t of the state of the a t. Natural Hazards, : – .

x U lai is, A. et al P o a ilisti isk assess e t of oil a d gas i f ast u tu es fo seis i e t e e e e ts. P o edia E gi ee i g :

-x You g, S., Balluz,L. a d Malila , J. Natu al a d te h ologi haza dous ate ial eleases du i g a d afte atu al disaste s: a e ie. Scie ce of the total e iro e t. :

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Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems DPRI, Kyoto University

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Serkan Girgin Amos Necci Elisabeth Krausmann RAPID-N:

Natech risk assessment and mapping

2

©Kansas Wing of the Civil Air Patrol

Hurricane, USA, 2005 Floods, Czech Republic, 2002 Flood, 2007

Earthquake, 2011

Hurricane, 2005

3

Source: P. Danihelka

Objective:

ÆSupport the EU Member States and operators in the

identification and reduction of Natech risk

Stakeholders:

ÆEU Member States, candidate and neighbour countries, third countries; European Commission Services; OECD, UNEP/OCHA, UNISDR

Activities:

ÆAccident analysis and guidance on Natech RR

ÆRisk analysis tools

ÆTraining

JRC activities

Accident analysis and guidance

•Identification of vulnerable equipment (fixed, pipelines, offshore), scenarios and consequences (earthquakes, floods, lightning, hurricanes)

•Site surveys for Natech damage assessment

(Japan, China) & statistical analysis, lessons learning

•Natech accident database: eNatech

http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Risk analysis tools

•Framework for Natech risk assessment and mapping: RAPID-N

http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Training

Natech Risk Mapping

•Natech risk maps are considered a high priority need for:

Identification of Natech-prone areas (land-use planning)

Emergency-response planning

•Hardly any Natech risk maps exist in the EU/OECD

Simple overlay of natural hazards and industrial facilities

Do not consider site-specific features

• Expected release scenarios

• Existing safety measures

ÆDevelopment of a unified Natech risk assessment and mapping methodology and implementation as a software tool

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7

Rapid-N Natech Risk Assessment & Mapping Framework

• Integrated methodology

• Natural Hazard + Accident

• Rapid assessment

• Local and regional analysis

• Publicly available

• Multilingual web service

• User friendly application

• Easy and quick data entry

• Visualization

• Collaborative environment

8 Methodology Consequence Damage Natural Hazard Natural Hazard Parameters Hazard Map

- Probabilistic - Deterministic

Site Data Process Unit Data

Hazard Parameter Estimation Methods Damage Probability

Historical Data - Hazard Parameters - Damage states - Consequences Fragility Curves

Consequence Analysis

Natech Risk

Risk Receptor Data - Land-use - Population Manual Input Risk States 9 Methodology Natural Hazard Natural Hazard Parameters Hazard Map

- Probabilistic - Deterministic Site Data Hazard Parameter Estimation Methods Manual Input

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10

Methodology

Damage

Process Unit Data

Damage Probability

Historical Data - Hazard Parameters - Damage states - Consequences Fragility Curves Natural Hazard Parameters Natural Hazard P(x) P(x) 11 Methodology Consequence Consequence Analysis Natech Risk

Risk Receptor Data - Land-use - Population Risk States Damage Damage Probability 12 Modular Structure Plants

Plants AssessmentAssessment

Scientific

Scientific HazardsHazards

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Scientific Tools Module

•Fuzzy arithmetic

•Automated unit conversion

•Statistics and curve-fitting

•Mapping

Google Maps

GIS analysis

Reference management

Property Estimation Framework

•Minimize data requirement

•Increase flexibility

No hard-coded functions

14

• Properties

• Natural hazard: e.g. PGA

• Site: e.g. Soil class

• Facility: e.g. Capacity

• Process unit: e.g. Volume

• Substance: e.g. Density

• Data

• Numerical (with unit)

e.g. 10 m3_{, 1.5 m/s}

• Tabular

e.g. Atmospheric, Pressurized

15

• Property Estimators

• Value estimator

e.g. Ambient temperature = 20oC

• Function estimator

e.g. Volume = ∏ x Radius2x Height

• Validity conditions

e.g. Shape = Cylindrical

• Validity regions

e.g. Location in Europe

16

Building Blocks Tool Kit Model

17

• Minimizes data input

• Estimates missing data

• Increases flexibility

• Dynamic model building

• Provides extensibility

• Custom properties

• Custom estimators

• Selects most suitable

• Recursive

• Exhaustive

d2

h

d

18

Plants Module

• Plants

• Industrial activity

• Site properties

• Plant Units

• Unit characteristics

• Stored substances

• Typical Plant Units

• Substances

• Identifiers

• Physicochemical properties

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19

Hazards Module

• Natural Hazards

• Hazard parameters

• Earthquake Catalog Data

• Continuous monitoring

• Automated update

• Hazard Maps

• Shakemaps

• On-site Hazard Data

• Natechs

• Damage parameters

20

Assessment Module

• Damage Classifications

• Fragility Curves

• Risk States

• Non-linear DS-RS relations

• Damage parameters, e.g.:

•Natech event (e.g. BLEVE)

•Conditional probability (e.g. 50%)

•Volume involved (e.g. 10 %v)

• Validity conditions

21

Risk Assessment

Natural Hazard

Industrial Plants

Risk Assessment Parameters

Data Protection

Status and Application

•Currently implemented for

earthquakes and fixed installations and pipelines

•~ 20,000 earthquakes (> M 5.5)

•~ 10,000 shakemaps

•> 5,500 industrial facilities

•Refineries

•Power plants

•> 64,000 plant units

•Storage tanks

•Complete implementation of

U.S. EPA RMP Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology

•Application areas:

Land-use planning

Emergency planning

Preliminary Natech damage

estimation

Early warning

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Natural Hazard

• Istanbul Earthquake

• Scenario

• JICA (2002) Model A

• Epicenter

• 40㼻45.00'N 29㼻24.00'E

• Focal depth 10 km

• Fault

• Fault length 154 km

• Strike-slip

• Magnitude

• Mw 7.5

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Industrial Plant

• Located in Izmit Bay

• Fiber production

• 315,000 ton/year capacity

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25

Industrial Plant Units

Kerosene

Acrylonitrile

Risk Assessment – Kerosene

Substance Kerosene

Tank Type Cylindrical Vertical Roof Type Fixed roof

Diameter 12 m

Height 18 m Volume 2064 m³

Dike area 22 m x 24 m

Dike volume 830 m³

Fill level 60%

Filled volume 1238 m³ Stored quantity 935 tons

HAZUS, 2010 ≥ 50%, Anchored

DS1 No damage

DS2 Minor damage, no release

DS3 Moderate damage, minor release

DS4 Severe damage, major release

DS5 Collapse, loss of content

Consequence: Pool fire

End-point: 2nd_{degree burns (40s exp.)}

DS1 No release

DS2 No release

DS3 1.24 m³ release 248 m² pool (within dike)

69 m end-point distance

DS4 619 m³ release 415 m² pool (within dike)

DS5 1238 m³ release 8588 m² pool (dike overflow)

de 6.18 km

PGA 0.7852 g PGV 167.92 cm/s MMI 10.07 DS1 45.00% DS2 46.56% DS3 5.86% DS4 0.87% DS5 1.72% Flammable: Kerosene release – 2nd_{degree burns}

Risk Assessment – Acrylonitrile

Tank Type Cylindrical vertical Roof Type Internal floating roof Anchorage Unanchored

Diameter 25 m

Height 16 m Volume 7750 m³

Dike area 50 m x 50 m

Dike volume 4020 m³

Fill level 80%

Filled volume 6200 m³ Stored quantity 4925 tons

de 6.25 km

PGA 0.7848 g PGV 167.83 cm/s MMI 10.06

HAZUS, 2010 Near full, Unanchored

DS1 No damage

DS2 Minor damage, no release

DS3 Moderate damage, minor release

DS4 Severe damage, major release

DS5 Collapse, loss of content

Consequence: Atmospheric dispersion

End-point: ERPG-2 (0.076 mg/L)

DS1 No release

DS2 No release

1.29 km end-point distance

DS5 6200 m³ release 8588 m² pool (dike overflow)

DS1 0.90% DS2 13.19% DS3 28.34% DS4 18.33% DS5 39.25% Toxic: Acrylonitrile release – ERPG-2

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31

Pipeline Natech Risk Assessment

• Prototype completed in 2016

(JRC Technical Report JRC101463)

• Pipeline-specific entities

• Pipeline

• Pipeline Segment

• Point of interest (POI)

• Pipeline-specific data

• Damage states

• Fragility functions

• Properties

• Property estimators

32

Pipeline Natech Risk Assessment

• Pipeline-specific features

• Overlapping segments

• Auto-segmentation

• Automated POI generation

• Impact zone consolidation

33

Flood Natech Risk Assessment

• 1st_{Phase of the prototype is}

completed (MAHB-ECHO AA 2015-2016)

• Collection of scientific and

technical knowledge

• Methodologies

• Hazard data sources

• Equipment vulnerability

• Consequence analysis

• Gap analysis

• Modifications

• Further development

34

Flood Natech Risk Assessment

• EFAS/RAPID-N interoperability

(JRC Technical Report JRC105055)

• Benefits

• Flood hazard data for natech

risk assessment

• Natech risk data for emergency

management

• Flood forecasts ÆNatech Alert

• Data sharing/cooperation between JRC systems

RAPID-N: Ongoing and future research

•Extension to other natural hazards and infrastructures

Pipelines (ongoing), Floods (ongoing), Lightning (planned)

•Automated Natech damage and consequence estimation (Alert)

Reporting to interested parties and authorities

•Cascading effects

•Consideration of risk receptors

Thank you for your attention!

http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Contact

[email protected]

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Natech

Quantitative Risk Assessment

by the ARIPARsoftware

Valerio Cozzani

LISES – DICAM

Alma Mater Studiorum–Università di Bologna Bologna, Italy

[email protected]

2

Natech Tools Workshop

Kyoto, Japan, March 13, 2017

Natech Quantitative Assessment by ARIPAR tool V. Cozzani, University of Bologna, Italy

LISES - DICAM @ University of Bologna

• U i ersit of Bolog a: fu ded

i 88: the oldest u i ersit i the ester orld

• S hools, Depart e ts

8 fa ult e ers,

8 + stude ts

• O e of the largest a d est

reputed Italia u i ersities

• A i ter atio al e tre of

o pete e for resear h i Safet of I dustrial A ti ities

• Spe ifi o pete es o

e ter al hazard fa tors a d as adi g e e ts

• U i ersit of Bolog a: fu ded

i 88: the oldest u i ersit i the ester orld

• S hools, Depart e ts

8 fa ult e ers,

8 + stude ts

• O e of the largest a d est

reputed Italia u i ersities

• A i ter atio al e tre of

o pete e for resear h i Safet of I dustrial A ti ities

• Spe ifi o pete es o

e ter al hazard fa tors a d as adi g e e ts

3

Natech Quantitative Assessment by ARIPAR tool V. Cozzani, University of Bologna, Italy Natech Events: definition

Natural events (earthquake,

floods, etc.) may cause damage to industrial installations and infrastructures

Damage caused by natural events

may start the release of hazardous substances triggering a

technological accident

These cascading eventsare

defined “Natech” scenarios

(Natural hazard triggering Technological disasters)

NaTech scenarios are potentially

high impact – low probability (HILP) events

4

HILP (High Impact – Low Probability)

M F Conventional Risks HILP Events Low frequency events falling outside expectations based on experience

Conventional scenarios falling inside experience of operators

and safety managers

Iso-Risk Curve

5

Natech Quantitative Assessment by ARIPAR tool V. Cozzani, University of Bologna, Italy Complexity of Scenarios

A high number of multiple simultaneous or

alternative events may result from a Natech sequence:

1. A natural event occurs (usually impacting on a wide area)

2. At least one (possibly more than one) equipment item (storage tank, reactor, distillation column, pipe, etc.) is damaged

3. Dangerous substances (flammable, toxic, reactive with water, dangerous for environment) are released 4. Each release may result in alternative final scenarios

depending on boundary conditions (ignition sources, meteo conditions, etc.)

5. Multiple simultaneous final scenario may cause further escalation(domino effects)

m

6

Complexity of impact vector

Some hazards

(e.g. flood) may require detailed characterization and may be strongly depending on position even in the scale of 10m