第2部　第7章：電子機器産業の構造変化と東アジアの産業内貿易

の産業内貿易

著者

熊倉 正修

権利

Copyrights 日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）アジア

経済研究所 / Institute of Developing

Economies, Japan External Trade Organization

(IDE-JETRO) http://www.ide.go.jp

シリーズタイトル

アジア経済研究所統計資料シリーズ

シリーズ番号

93

雑誌名

貿易指数と貿易構造の変化

ページ

191-220

発行年

2009

出版者

日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所/Institute of

Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO) 

URL

http://hdl.handle.net/2344/00008917

╙

7 ┨

㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺߩ᭴ㅧᄌൻߣ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ↥ᬺౝ⾏ᤃ

ᾢୖᱜୃ

ߪߓ߼ߦ

↥ᬺౝ⾏ᤃ㧔_{intra-industry tradeޔએਅ IIT㧕ߪ࿖}

㓙⚻ᷣቇߩਥⷐ⎇ⓥ⺖㗴ߩ৻ߟߢ޽ࠆޕ⎇ⓥ⠪ߩ 㑐ᔃ߇㓸߹ࠅᆎ߼ߚ1970ᐕઍೋ㗡ߦߪIITࠍ⛔⸘ ਄ߩᐛᗐߣ⷗ߥߔ⷗⸃߽޽ߞߚ߇ޔߘߩᓟߩ⎇ⓥ ߦࠃߞߡߘࠇ߇ߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ⵾ㅧᬺߦ߅޿ߡ⹺߼ࠄ ࠇࠆ⃻⽎ߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇␜ߐࠇߚ㧔_{Greenaway and} Milner 1986㧕ޕ1980 ᐕઍߦߥࠆߣ IIT ߩℂ⺰⊛⸃᣿ ߳ߩᯏㆇ߽㜞߹ࠅޔߘࠇ߇੹ᣣߩᣂ⾏ᤃℂ⺰߿ⓨ 㑆⚻ᷣቇߩ⊒ዷߩ৻ഥߣ߽ߥߞߚ㧔_{Krugman and}

Helpman 1985; Fujita et al. 1999㧕ޕ

1980 ᐕઍએ㒠ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߦ߅޿ߡ߽ IIT ߇ᕆჇ ߒߚޕ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ_{IIT ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⎇ⓥߩਛߦߪ࿖㓙} 㑆ߩ↢↥Ꮏ⒟ಽᬺ㧔ࡈ࡜ࠣࡔࡦ࠹࡯࡚ࠪࡦ㧕ߩᓎ ഀߦᵈ⋡ߒߚ߽ߩ߇ᄙߊޔ࿖Ⴚࠍ⿥߃ߚડᬺ㑆࡮ ડᬺౝ↢↥ࡀ࠶࠻ࡢ࡯ࠢߦᡰ߃ࠄࠇߚਛ㑆⽷⾏ᤃ ߩᵴ⊒ൻ߇_{IIT ᕆჇߩේ࿃ߣߒߡᒝ⺞ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ}

㧔_{Thorpe and Zhang 2005; Wakasugi 2008㧕ޕ߹ߚޔ}

৻ㇱߩ⎇ⓥߢߪIIT ߇ᵴ⊒ߥ࿖ޘߩ㑆ߢ᥊᳇ᓴⅣ

ߩ✕ኒൻ߇ㅴࠎߢ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ᜰ៰ߐࠇߡ߅ࠅޔ੹

ᓟߐࠄߦIIT ߇Ⴧടߔࠇ߫᧲ࠕࠫࠕߦ߅޿ߡ᰷߽

Ꮊဳߩㅢ⽻⛔ว߳ߩ㆏߇㐿ߌࠆߣਥᒛߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ

㧔_{Shin and Wang 2003; Cortinhas 2007㧕ޕ}

ߎࠇࠄᣢሽ⎇ⓥߩ৻ߟߩ໧㗴ὐߪޔㆊ෰ߩ᧲ࠕ ࠫࠕߦ߅ߌࠆ_{IIT ߩ᜛ᄢߩ⋧ᒰㇱಽ߇ᖱႎㅢାᯏ} ེ߿ඨዉ૕࠺ࡃࠗࠬߥߤߩ৻ㇱߩ㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺߦ ࠃߞߡᡰ߃ࠄࠇߡ߈ߚߦ߽㑐ࠊࠄߕޔߘࠇ߇ߔߴ ߡߩޟ⵾ㅧᬺޠ߿ޟᯏ᪾ᯏེ↥ᬺޠߦဋ৻ߦ↢ߓ ߡ޿ࠆ߆ߩࠃ߁ߦᛒࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣߢ޽ࠆ 1ޕ⛔ ⸘ࠍৼካߦⷰኤߔࠆߣ್᣿ߔࠆߎߣߛ߇ޔ_{1980 ᐕ} ઍ߆ࠄ_{2000ᐕ೨ᓟߦ߆ߌߡߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩIITߩᕆ} Ⴧߪၞౝ⻉࿖ߩ㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺߩᕆᚑ㐳ߣߘࠇߦ઻ ߁ਛ㑆⽷ขᒁߩ᜛ᄢߦࠃࠆߣߎࠈ߇ᄢ߈ߊޔߘࠇ એᄖߩ↥ᬺߩᓇ㗀ߪዊߐ߆ߞߚޕࠃࠅ㊀ⷐߥὐߣ ߒߡޔ_{2000 ᐕ೨ᓟ߆ࠄਛ࿖ߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེ↥ᬺߩ} บ㗡ߥߤߦࠃߞߡ਎⇇⊛ߦ㔚ሶᯏེߩ⾏ᤃ᭴ㅧ߇ ᄌൻߒޔ㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺߪ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩࡈ࡜ࠣࡔࡦ࠹ ࡯࡚ࠪࡦߣ_{IIT ߩ‧ᒁᓎࠍᨐߚߖߥߊߥࠅߟߟ޽} ࠆޕᧄ┨ߢߪߎࠇࠄߩὐࠍᢙ㊂⊛ߦⵣߠߌޔ੹ᓟ ߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃߣ_{IIT ߩേะࠍዷᦸߔࠆޕ} ᧄ┨ߩ᭴ᚑߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆޕᰴ▵ߢߪᮡḰ ⊛ߥ_{IIT ߩᜰᮡߢ޽ࠆࠣ࡞࡯ࡌ࡞࡮ࡠࠗ࠼ᜰᢙࠍ} ࡟ࡆࡘ࡯ߒޔᧄ┨ߢ೑↪ߔࠆ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ⸃⺑ߔࠆޕ ╙2 ▵ߢߪㆊ෰྾ඨ਎♿㑆ߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃ ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ_{IIT ߩࠪࠚࠕࠍ⸘᷹ߒޔߘߩ㔚ሶ࡮} 㔚᳇ᯏེ↥ᬺߣߩ㑐ଥࠍ᭎ⷰߔࠆޕ╙_{3 ▵ߢߪㄭ} ᐕߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ_{IIT ߦ߅ߌࠆ㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺߩᓎഀ} ߩᄌኈࠍਛ࿖ߣઁߩ࿖ޘߩขᒁߩᄌൻߦᵈᗧߒߥ ߇ࠄಽᨆߔࠆޕ╙4 ▵ߢߪ੹ᓟߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߦ߅ߌ ࠆ↢↥Ꮏ⒟ಽᬺߣ_{IIT ߩേะࠍዷᦸߔࠆޕᦨ⚳▵} ߢߪᧄ┨ߩಽᨆ⚿ᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ࠆޕ

1. ↥ᬺౝ⾏ᤃߩ⸘᷹ᣇᴺ

IIT ߩቯ⟵߿⸘᷹ᣇᴺߦ㑐ߒߡߪᄙߊߩ⼏⺰߇ ޽ࠆ߇ޔ࿖㓙⾏ᤃߦ߅ߌࠆ_{IIT ߩ㊀ⷐᕈߩᜰᮡߣ} ߒߡᦨ߽ᐢߊ೑↪ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߩߪ_{H. G. ࠣ࡞࡯ࡌ}

࡞ߣ_{P. J. ࡠࠗ࠼߇⠨᩺ߒߚࠣ࡞࡯ࡌ࡞࡮ࡠࠗ࠼ᜰ} ᢙ㧔_{Grubel-Lloyd Indexޔએਅ GL ᜰᢙ㧕ߢ޽ࠆޕ} ޿߹ޔi࿖߆ࠄj࿖߳ߩk⽷㧔↥ᬺ㧕ߩャ಴㗵ࠍX_ijkޔ i ࿖ߩ j ࿖߆ࠄߩ k ⽷㧔↥ᬺ㧕ߩャ౉㗵ࠍ k ij M ߣᦠ ߊߎߣߦߔࠆޕߘߩᤨޔੑ࿖㑆ߢャ಴౉߇ࠝ࡯ࡃ ࡯࡜࠶ࡊߒߡ޿ࠆㇱಽߩ✚㗵ߪ (1-1)



k k



k k 2min k, k ij ij ij ij ij ij X M  X M ª_¬X M º_¼ ߢ޽ࠅޔࠣ࡞࡯ࡌ࡞࡮ࡠࠗ࠼ߪߎࠇࠍ_{IIT ߣ๭ࠎ}

ߛ㧔Grubel and Lloyd 1971㧕ޕߘߒߡ GL ᜰᢙߪ

(1-2) _k 2min ijk, ijk ij k k ij ij X M IIT X M ª º ¬ ¼  ߣቯ⟵ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ (1-2)ᑼߩ GL ᜰᢙߪߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ㓸⸘߇น⢻ߢ޽ ࠆޕߚߣ߃߫i㧙j ࿖㑆ߩ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ k ⽷㧔↥ ᬺ㧕ߩขᒁߩࠪࠚࠕࠍએਅߩࠃ߁ߦ⸘▚ߒ (1-3) k



ijk ijk



ijk ijk ij k k ij ij ij ij k X M X M w X M X M    

¦

ߎࠇࠍ࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ߣߔࠆ k_, ij IIT k 1,2,...ߩട㊀ᐔ ဋ୯ࠍ▚಴ߔࠆߣޔ (1-4) 2 min , k k ij ij k k k ij ij ij k ij ij X M IIT w IIT X M ª º ¬ ¼ 

¦

¦

ߣߥࠆޕߎࠇߪi㧙j ࿖㑆ߩ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ GL ߩᗧ๧ߢߩ_{IIT ߩᲧ₸ࠍ⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ} ᰴߦޔ޽ࠆ․ቯߩ࿾ၞ㧔ߚߣ߃߫᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧕ߦ ዻߔࠆ࿖ޘ㧔

l

1,2,...,

n

㧕ߛߌߦᵈ⋡ߒޔ_iޔj ࿖߇޿ߕࠇ߽ߎࠇࠄߩn ࠞ࿖ߦ฽߹ࠇߡ޿ࠆߣߒ ࠃ߁ޕi ࿖ߩߔߴߡߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߣߩ⾏ᤃ㗵ߦ භ߼ࠆ_{j ࿖ߣߩขᒁߩࠪࠚࠕࠍ} (1-5)



ij ij



ij ij ij il il i i l i X M X M w X M X M z    

¦

ߣᦠ߈ޔవߩࠤ࡯ࠬߣห᭽ߦw_ijࠍ࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ߣߔࠆ IITil, l 1,2,..,nߩട㊀ᐔဋ୯ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߣ (1-6) _{2 min ,} i il il l i k k il il l i k i i IIT w IIT X M X M z z ª¬ º¼ 

¦

¦ ¦

ߣߥࠆޕߎࠇߪ_{i ࿖ߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝߩ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦ} භ߼ࠆIIT ߩᲧ₸ࠍ⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ  ᦨᓟߦޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝߩ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ_{i ࿖} ߩขᒁߩࠪࠚࠕࠍએਅߩࠃ߁ߦቯ⟵ߒࠃ߁ޕ (1-7)



i i



i i l l l l l X M T w X M T  

¦

¦

ߎߎߢT ߪ i ࿖ߣઁߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߣߩ⾏ᤃߩ✚_i 㗵ߢ޽ࠅޔ

¦

_lT_l 2

¦

_lX_l 2

¦

_lM_l ߪ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ ߩၞౝ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߩ_{2 ୚ߦ⋧ᒰߒߡ޿ࠆ㧔ߚߛߒ◲} ⇛ൻߩߚ߼ޔߎߎߢߪCIF ࡑ࡯ࠫࡦ╬ߪᝥ⽎ߒߡ ޿ࠆ㧕ޕߎߩw_iࠍ࠙ࠚࠗ࠻ߣߒߚIIT_i, i 1,2,...ߩ ട㊀ᐔဋ୯ࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣ (1-8) 2 min , min , min , i i i k k ij ij i j i k i i k k ij ij i j i k k ij i j i k k k ij ij i j i k k ij i j i k IIT w IIT X M T X M X X M M z z z z z ª º ¬ ¼ ª º ¬ ¼ ª º ¬ ¼

¦

¦ ¦ ¦

¦

¦ ¦ ¦

¦ ¦ ¦

¦ ¦ ¦

¦ ¦ ¦

ߣߥࠆޕ⸒߁߹ߢ߽ߥߊޔ_{(1-8)ᑼߩ IIT ߪ᧲ࠕࠫ} ࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ_{GL ߩᗧ๧ߢߩ IIT ߩ} ࠪࠚࠕࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ  ਄⸥ߩ_{(1-4)ᑼએਅߢߪߔߴߡߩ⾏ᤃ⽷↥ᬺࠍ㓸} ⸘ߒߚGL ᜰᢙࠍ⠨߃ߚ߇ޔ․ቯߩ↥ᬺࠣ࡞࡯ࡊ ߦ㑐ߒߡห᭽ߩᜰᢙࠍቯ⟵ߔࠆߎߣ߽น⢻ߢ޽ࠆޕ ߚߣ߃߫ޔ

I

_m

,

m

1,2,..

߇ߘࠇߙࠇⶄᢙߩ↥ᬺ ߆ࠄ᭴ᚑߐࠇࠆ↥ᬺㇱ㐷ߛߣߒޔ޽ࠆ․ቯߩ

I

_m߇ ޟᯏ᪾ᯏེޠㇱ㐷ߦዻߔࠆ↥ᬺߩ㓸วߛߣߔࠆޕ ߎߎߢ (1-9)

 

2



min



, , m m k k il il l i k i m _{k k} i i k X M IIT X M I I I z   ª º ¬ ¼

¦ ¦

¦

ߣ޿߁୯ࠍቯ⟵ߔࠆߣޔߘࠇߪi ࿖ߩઁߩ᧲ࠕࠫ ࠕ⻉࿖ߣߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ⾏ᤃߦභ߼ࠆIIT ߩᲧ₸ࠍ⴫ ߒߡ޿ࠆޕߎߩ୯ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆߣޔ_{(1-6)ᑼߩIITi}ࠍ

(1-10)

 

 

 

m





i i m i m m k k i i k i m i i IIT w IIT X M w X M I I I I   

¦

¦

ߚߛߒ ߣ޿߁ㇱ㐷ߏߣߩGL ᜰᢙߩട㊀ᐔဋ୯ߣߒߡ⴫ ⃻ߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ޔߐࠄߦ_{(1-8)ᑼߩ GL Ყ₸ࠍ} (1-11)

   

 



m







m m m k k i i i k m i i i IIT w IIT X M w X M I I I I   

¦

¦ ¦

¦

ߚߛߒ ߣᦠ߈⋥ߔߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ_{IIT ߦ㑐ߔ} ࠆታ⸽⎇ⓥߩᄙߊߪ⵾ㅧᬺ߿ᯏ᪾ᯏེㇱ㐷ߦᵈ⋡ ߒߚಽᨆࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆ㧔_{Murshed 2001㧕ޕ} ߥ߅ޔ਄⸥ߩ

I

_mߪᔅߕߒ߽ᮡḰ⊛ߥ↥ᬺㇱ㐷ߢ ޽ࠆᔅⷐߪߥߊޔ⁛⥄ߩၮḰߦࠃߞߡ↥ᬺࠍࠣ࡞ ࡯ࡊಽߌߔࠆߎߣ߽น⢻ߢ޽ࠆޕㄭᐕߩᄙߊߩታ ⸽⎇ⓥߪGL ߩᗧ๧ߢߩ IIT ߦ㑐ߒߡャ಴⽷ߣャ ౉⽷ߩනଔࠍ▚಴ߒޔਔ⠪ߩਵ㔌߇৻ቯ▸࿐ౝߦ ෼߹ߞߡ޿ࠆ႐วࠍޟ᳓ᐔ⊛_{IITޠޔߘࠇએᄖߩ႐} วࠍޟု⋥⊛IITޠߣ๭ࠎߢ޿ࠆ㧔Greenaway et al. 1995㧕ޕߎߎߢޟ᳓ᐔ⊛ IITޠߣߪޟၮᧄ⊛ߥᯏ⢻ ߿ຠ⾰ߪ߶߷ห৻ߢ޽ࠅޔ࠺ࠩࠗࡦ߿઀᭽ߩߺߦ ࠃߞߡᏅ೎ൻߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔ߚ߼ߦૃㅢߞߚଔᩰߢ ⽼ᄁߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧕⽷ߩ෺ᣇะขᒁޠࠍᗧ๧ߒߡ߅ ࠅޔޟု⋥⊛IITޠߣߪޟ↥ᬺ㧔⾏ᤃຠ⋡㧕ಽ㘃਄ ߪห৻⽷ߛ߇ᯏ⢻߿ຠ⾰ޔടᎿᲑ㓏߇⇣ߥࠆ㧔ߚ ߼ߦャ಴౉ଔᩰ߇ᄢ߈ߊਵ㔌ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧕⽷ߩขᒁޠ ࠍᗧ๧ߒߡ޿ࠆޕᣢሽᢥ₂ߢߪᄙߊߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉ ࿖ߦ߅޿ߡ_{(1-6)ᑼߩGLᜰᢙ߇1970ᐕઍ߆ࠄ1990} ᐕઍߦ߆ߌߡᄢ߈ߊ਄᣹ߒߚߎߣޔߘߩ⋧ᒰㇱಽ ߇ု⋥⊛_{IIT ߩჇടߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆߎߣ߇ᜰ៰}

ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔_{Hurley 2003; Thorpe and Zhang 2005㧕ޕ}

 ᧄ┨ߢߪ୘ޘߩ࿖ޘߩGL ᜰᢙߢߪߥߊ(1-8)ᑼ ߩቯ⟵ߦࠃࠆ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃో૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙ} ߦᵈ⋡ߒޔߘࠇ߇ㆊ෰྾ඨ਎♿ߩ㑆ߦߤߩࠃ߁ߦ ᄌൻߒߡ߈ߚ߆ޔߘߩ⢛᥊ߦߤߩࠃ߁ߥⷐ࿃߇૞ ↪ߒߡ޿ߚ߆ࠍಽᨆߔࠆޕߚߛߒ_{(1-8)ᑼߣ(1-11)} ᑼࠍ⷗ࠆߣಽ߆ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃߩ GL ᜰᢙߪၞౝ⻉࿖ߩ GL ᜰᢙߩട㊀ᐔဋ୯ߢ޽ ࠅޔㇱ㐷೎ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩട㊀ᐔဋ୯ߢ߽޽ࠆޕߒ} ߚ߇ߞߡ೨⠪ߩᄌേߩࡔࠞ࠾࠭ࡓࠍℂ⸃ߔࠆߚ߼ ߦߪᓟ⠪ࠍಽᨆߔࠆߎߣ߽ᔅⷐߣߥࠆޕ ߎࠇ߹ߢ⼏⺰ߒߚGL ᜰᢙߪ᭎ᔨ⊛ߦߪන⚐ߥ ߽ߩߛ߇ޔታ㓙ߩ⸘▚ߦ޽ߚߞߡߪੑߟߩ໧㗴ࠍ ᬌ⸛ߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕ╙৻ߩ໧㗴ߪ㓸⸘ߩၮ␆ߣ ߥࠆ↥ᬺk 1,2,...ࠍ޿߆ߦቯ⟵ߔࠆ߆ߢ޽ࠆޕ৻ ⥸ߦ_{GL ᜰᢙߪ↥ᬺಽ㘃ࠍ⚦ಽൻߔࠆ߶ߤዊߐߊ} ߥࠆߎߣ߇⍮ࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔Lloyd 2002㧕ޕㄭᐕߩ⎇ ⓥߢߪㆊ೾㓸⸘ߩน⢻ᕈ߿᳓ᐔ⊛࡮ု⋥⊛_{IIT ߩ} ⼂೎ߦ޽ߚߞߡャ಴౉නଔ߇ᔅⷐߣߥࠆߎߣࠍ⠨ ᘦߒޔ⾏ᤃ⛔⸘ߩຠ⋡ࠦ࡯࠼ࠍߘߩ߹߹਄⸥ߩ 1,2,... k ߣߒߡ೑↪ߒߡ޿ࠆࠤ࡯ࠬ߇ᄙ޿ޕ੹ᣣ ߩᮡḰ⊛ߥ⾏ᤃຠ⋡૕♽ߢ޽ࠆ⛔৻ࠪࠬ࠹ࡓ 㧔_{Harmonized Systemޔએਅ HS㧕ߩᦨ⹦ 6 ᩴࠦ࡯} ࠼ᢙߪ5,000 એ਄ߦ਄ߞߡ߅ࠅޔ࿖㓙ᮡḰ↥ᬺಽ

㘃㧔_{International Standard Industrial Classificationޔએ}

ਅ_{ISIC㧕ߥߤߦᲧߴߡᩰᲑߦ⹦⚦ߥಽᨆ߇น⢻ߣ} ߥࠆޕߚߛߒャ಴౉㑐⒢ߩⷙቯࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߚ⾏ᤃ ຠ⋡૕♽ߣ _{ISIC ߩࠃ߁ߥ↥ᬺಽ㘃ߪ᭎ᔨ⊛ߦ⇣} ߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔ߿ߺߊ߽ߦ⹦⚦ߥಽ㘃ࠍណ↪ߔࠇ߫ ࠃ޿ߣߪ㒢ࠄߥ޿ߎߣߦ߽ᵈᗧ߇ᔅⷐߢ޽ࠆޕ ╙ੑߩ໧㗴ߪޔ਄⸥ߩ↥ᬺ㧔⽷㧕ಽ㘃ߩ໧㗴߇ ⸃᳿ߐࠇߚߣߒߡޔ޿߆ߦߒߡߘࠇߦኻᔕߔࠆା 㗬ߢ߈ࠆ⾏ᤃ⛔⸘ࠍ౉ᚻߔࠆ߆ߢ޽ࠆޕන৻࿖ߩ IIT ࠍ▚಴ߔࠆ႐วߦߪᒰ⹥࿖ߩේ⛔⸘߆ࠄ࠺࡯ ࠲ࡌ࡯ࠬࠍ᭴▽ߔࠆߎߣ߽น⢻ߛ߇ޔᄙᢙ࿖ߩಽ ᨆߦ߅޿ߡߪ࿖㓙⊛ߦᮡḰൻߐࠇߚ⾏ᤃ⛔⸘ࠍ೑ ↪ߖߑࠆࠍ߃ߥ޿ޕߘߩࠃ߁ߥ᳢↪⊛ߥ⾏ᤃ࠺࡯ ࠲ࡌ࡯ࠬߣߒߡᢛ஻ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߩ߇࿖㓙ㅪวߩ Commodity Trade Statistics Database㧔એਅComtrade㧕

ߢ޽ࠅޔᣢሽ⎇ⓥߩᄙߊ߽_{Comtrade ࠍ೑↪ߒߡ޿} ࠆޕߒ߆ߒ_{Comtrade ߦߪบḧߩ⾏ᤃ⛔⸘߇㓁⴫⊛} ߦ෼㍳ߐࠇߡ޿ߥ޿ߛߌߢߥߊޔߘࠇએᄖߩ࿖ޘ ߦ㑐ߒߡ߽ฦ࿖ߩේ⛔⸘ߩ․ᕈ߿໧㗴ὐ߇ߘߩ߹ ߹෻ᤋߐࠇߡߒ߹ߞߡ޿ࠆޕߚߣ߃߫ਛ⛮⾏ᤃ߇ ⋓ࠎߥ㚅᷼߿ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߩ⛔⸘ߪ⾏ᤃ⋧ᚻ࿖ߩ

⛔⸘ߣ⪺ߒߊਵ㔌ߒߡ߅ࠅ 2ޔห᭽ߩ໧㗴ߪߎࠇ ࠄߩ࿖ޘࠍ੺ߒߚ╙ਃ࿖ߣߩขᒁ߇ᄙ޿ઁߩࠕࠫ ࠕ⻉࿖ߦ߽ሽ࿷ߔࠆޕ߹ߚޔࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦߢߪ₁₉₉₀ ᐕઍඨ߫߹ߢᆔ⸤ടᎿ඙ߦ߅ߌࠆャ಴౉߇৻᜝ߒ ߡޟߘߩઁޠຠ⋡ߦಽ㘃ߐࠇߡ޿ߚߚ߼ޔߘࠇએ ೨ߣએᓟߩ⛔⸘ߩ㑆ߦήⷞߢ߈ߥ޿ᢿ⛘߇ሽ࿷ߔ ࠆޕᄙߊߩᣢሽ⎇ⓥߪߎࠇࠄߩ໧㗴ߦ㑐ߒߡή㗐 ⌕ߛ߇ޔ_{Comtrade ࠍߘߩ߹߹೑↪ߒߚಽᨆߩା㗬} ᕈߪૐ޿ߣ⸒ࠊߑࠆࠍ߃ߥ޿ޕ ᧄ┨ߢߪ਄⸥ߩ໧㗴ࠍ⠨ᘦߒޔࡈ࡜ࡦࠬߩ⎇ⓥ

ᯏ㑐_{Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations}

Internationales㧔CEPII㧕߇૞ᚑ࡮౏⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆ

Comptes Harmonisés sur les Echanges et l’Economie Mondiale (CHELEM)ߣ Base pour l’Analysis du Commerce International㧔BACI㧕ߣ޿߁ੑߟߩ⾏ᤃ ࠺࡯࠲ࡌ࡯ࠬࠍ೑↪ߔࠆޕ_{CHELEM ߽ BACI ߽ၮ} ᧄ⊛ߦߪ_{Comtrade ߦଐ᜚ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔ㚅᷼߿ࠪࡦ} ࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߦ㑐ߒߡᒰ⹥࿖ߩේ⛔⸘ࠍ↪޿ߚୃᱜ߇ ⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߛߌߢߥߊޔߘߩઁߩ࿖ޘߦ㑐ߒߡ ߽⸘㊂⚻ᷣቇ⊛ᚻᴺࠍ↪޿ߡャ಴౉࿖⛔⸘ߩਇ⓭ ว߇⺞ᢛߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ_{CHELEM ߿ BACI ߦ߅޿ߡ} ߽᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߩ⾏ᤃ⛔⸘ߩ໧㗴ὐ߇ቢోߦస᦯ ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆࠊߌߢߪߥ޿߇ޔઁߩᣢሽߩ࠺࡯࠲ࡌ ࡯ࠬߦᲧߴߡ♖ᐲߪ㜞޿ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ3ޕ ᧄ┨ߢCHELEM ߣ BACI ࠍ૬↪ߔࠆℂ↱ߪޔ ᧄ┨ߩ⋡⊛ߦߣߞߡߎࠇࠄ߇⋧⵬⊛ߥ․ᓽࠍᜬߞ ߡ޿ࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕ_{CHELEM ߪ߽ߣ߽ߣ CGE ࠲} ࠗࡊߩേቇ⊛ಽᨆࠍᗧ⼂ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠅޔࠝࡦ࡜ ࠗࡦ ߢ_{1967 ᐕએ㒠ޔCD-ROM  ߢߪ 1985 ᐕએ} 㒠ߩ㐳ᦼ࠺࡯࠲߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆ߇ޔ↥ᬺಽ㘃ߪ߆ߥࠅ ᄢ߹߆ߢ޽ࠆޕ৻ᣇޔ_{BACI ߩຠ⋡ಽ㘃ߪ HS ߩ 6} ᩴࠦ࡯࠼ߛ߇ޔ_{1992 ᐕ ߩ HS㧔એਅ HS-92㧕ߦ} ߽ߣߠߊ࠺࡯࠲ߪ_{1995 ᐕએ㒠ޔ1996 ᐕ ߩ HS} 㧔_{HS-96㧕ߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߪ 1996 ᐕએ㒠ಽߒ߆ឭଏߐ} ࠇߡ޿ߥ޿ޕCHELEM ߢߪⶄᢙߩ↥ᬺಽ㘃૕♽ߦ ߽ߣߠߊ⾏ᤃ࠺࡯࠲߇ឭଏߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔᧄ┨ߢ ߪਥߣߒߡ_{CEPII ⁛⥄ߩಽ㘃㧔ಽ㘃✚ᢙ 72㧕ߦ߽} ߣߠߊ߽ߩࠍ೑↪ߔࠆޕߎࠇߪ_{CEPII ߩಽ㘃✬ᚑ} ߦ߅޿ߡ⽷ߩടᎿᲑ㓏߇⠨ᘦߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣޔ᧲ ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߦߣߞߡ㊀ⷐߥ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ↥ᬺߦ 㑐ߒߡᲧセ⊛วℂ⊛ߥಽ㘃߇ߥߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߚ߼ߢ ޽ࠆޕ߹ߚޔ_{BACI ߦ㑐ߒߡߪࠃࠅ㐳ᦼ㑆ߩ⛔⸘} ߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆ HS-92 ࡌ࡯ࠬߩ࠺࡯࠲㧔ಽ㘃✚ᢙ 4,979㧕ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆޕCEPII ಽ㘃ߩ⹦⚦ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ ┨ᧃߩ㒝⴫ࠍෳᾖߐࠇߚ޿ޕ

CEPII ಽ㘃ߦ߽ߣߠߊCHELEM ࠺࡯࠲ߪIIT ߩ ⸘᷹ߦ↪޿ࠆߦߪ↥ᬺಽ㘃߇ᄢ߹߆ߔ߉ࠆߣᕁࠊ ࠇࠆ߆߽⍮ࠇߥ޿߇ޔߘࠇߪᔅߕߒ߽ᱜߒߊߥ޿ޕ ߩߜߦ⹦ㅀߔࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ_{IIT ߪ৻ㇱߩ} 㔚ሶᯏེߦ⪺ߒߊ஍ߞߡ޿ࠆޕߚߣ߃߫_{HS-92 ߩ} 6ᩴຠ⋡ࠍ߽ߣߦ2005ᐕߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝߩᎿᬺ⵾ ຠߩ_{IIT ࠍ▚಴ߔࠆߣ਄૏ 8 ຠ⋡ߛߌߢ IIT ✚㗵} ߩ40㧑ㄭߊࠍභ߼ߡ߅ࠅޔߘࠇࠄߔߴߡ߇㔚ሶᯏ ེ↥ᬺߦዻߔࠆຠ⋡ߢ޽ࠆޕᰴ▵ߢ⷗ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ ޿ߕࠇߩ↥ᬺಽ㘃ᣇᴺࠍណ↪ߔࠆ߆ߦࠃߞߡ(1-6) ᑼ߿_{(1-8)ᑼߩ GL ᜰᢙߩ᳓Ḱߪᄌൻߔࠆ߇ޔߘߩ} ⚻ᤨ⊛ߥᄌൻߩ․ᕈߦᄢ߈ߥ㆑޿ߪ⹺߼ࠄࠇߥ޿ޕ ߥ߅ޔBACI ߦߪ Comtrade ߩャ಴౉ᢙ㊂࠺࡯࠲ ߆ࠄ▚಴ߒߚනଔ࠺࡯࠲߽෼㍳ߐࠇߡ߅ࠅޔᣢሽ ᢥ₂ߩࠃ߁ߦ_{IIT ࠍ᳓ᐔ⊛࡮ု⋥⊛ IIT ߦಽ㘃ߔ} ࠆߎߣߪኈᤃߢ޽ࠆޕߒ߆ߒᧄ┨ߢߪ᳓ᐔ⊛ _IIT ߣု⋥⊛_{IIT ࠍ඙೎ߒߚಽ㘃ߪⴕࠊߥ޿ޕߘߩ╙} ৻ߩℂ↱ߪޔBACI ߇ଐ᜚ߔࠆ Comtrade ߦ߅޿ߡ ᢙ㊂න૏߇ᰳ៊ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧔޽ࠆ޿ߪャ಴࿖ߣャ౉ ࿖ߩ㑆ߢᢙ㊂න૏߇⇣ߥߞߡ޿ࠆ㧕ຠ⋡߇ዋߥߊ ߥߊޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃߦ߅޿ߡߘࠇࠄߩຠ⋡ ߇භ߼ࠆࠪࠚࠕ߇ᄢ߈޿ߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆޕ╙ੑߩℂ↱ ߪޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߦߣߞߡ㊀ⷐߥ㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺߢ ߪᛛⴚ㕟ᣂߦࠃࠆ⽷ߩ㜞ᐲൻߣಽൻߩࠬࡇ࡯࠼߇ ㅦߊޔන৻ߩ_{HS6 ᩴຠ⋡ߩਛߦᕈ⾰߇⇣ߥࠆ⽷߇} ᷙ࿷ߒߡ޿ࠆࠤ࡯ࠬ߇ዋߥߊߥ޿ߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆޕߘ ߩࠃ߁ߥຠ⋡ߦ㑐ߒߡᯏ᪾⊛ߦ▚಴ߐࠇߚャ಴න ଔߣャ౉නଔ߇ᄢ߈ߊਵ㔌ߒߡ޿ߚߣߒߡ߽ޔߘ ࠇ߇ߔߥࠊߜຠ⾰ߦࠃࠆ⽷ߩᏅ೎ൻ߿ࡈ࡜ࠣࡔࡦ ࠹࡯࡚ࠪࡦߩ⚿ᨐߛߣߪᢿቯߢ߈ߕޔනߦ⽷ߩᄙ ᭽ൻߦ⾏ᤃຠ⋡ߩᡷ⸓߇ㅊ޿ߟ޿ߡ޿ߥ޿น⢻ᕈ

߽⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ4ޕ

2. ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ↥ᬺౝᜰᢙߩ࠳ࠗ࠽ࡒ࠶ࠢ

ࠬ㧦᭎ⷰ

 ᧄ▵ߢߪ߹ߕ⵾ㅧᬺ㧔Ꮏᬺ⵾ຠ㧕ో૕ࠍኻ⽎ߣ ߒߡ_{(1-8)ᑼߩ GL ᜰᢙࠍ⸘▚ߒޔߘߩ⚻ᤨ⊛ᄌൻ} ࠍᄢ߹߆ߦಽᨆߔࠆޕ⵾ㅧᬺએᄖߩ⾏ᤃ⽷↥ᬺࠍ 㓸⸘߆ࠄ㒰ᄖߔࠆℂ↱ߪޔᣢሽᢥ₂ߦ߅޿ߡㄘᨋ ᳓↥ᬺ߿㋶ᬺߢߪIIT ߇ዋߥ޿ߎߣ߇␜ߐࠇߡ޿ ࠆߎߣ㧔_{Brüllhart 2008㧕ޔଔᩰᄌേߩᄢ߈޿৻ᰴ↥} ຠࠍ㓸⸘ߦ฽߼ࠆߣ㓸⸘ߐࠇߚ_{GL ᜰᢙ߇ਇ቟ቯ} ߦߥࠅޔߘߩ⍴ᦼ⊛ߥᄌേߣ⿲൓⊛ᄌൻߩ⼂೎߇ ࿎㔍ߦߥࠆߎߣߢ޽ࠆ㧔_{Kumakura 2008㧕ޕ⵾ㅧᬺ} ߩਛߢ߽ේᴤଔᩰߩᓇ㗀߇ᄢ߈޿⍹ᴤ♖⵾ᬺߣࠨ ࡯ࡆࠬ⽷ߩᕈ⾰߇ᒝ޿ශ೚࡮಴ ᬺޔ․ᱶߥ↥ᬺ ߢ޽ࠆᱞེ࡮ᒢ⮎⵾ㅧᬺߥߤߪ㓸⸘߆ࠄ㒰ᄖߔࠆ 㧔ኻ⽎↥ᬺߩ⹦⚦ߪ┨ᧃߩઃ⴫ࠍෳᾖ㧕ޕߥ߅ޔᧄ ┨ߦ߅޿ߡޟ᧲ࠕࠫࠕޠߣߪᣣᧄޔ㖧࿖ޔบḧޔ 㚅᷼ޔࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ޔࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕޔࠗࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕޔ ࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦޔ࠲ࠗޔਛ࿖ޔࡌ࠻࠽ࡓߩ_{11 ࠞ࿖ࠍᗧ} ๧ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ೨▵ߢ⸃⺑ߒߚ_{CHELEM ߣ BACI ࠍ೑↪ߒߡ} ᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝ⾏ᤃߩ_{GL ᜰᢙࠍ⸘▚ߒޔߘߩផ⒖} ࠍࠣ࡜ࡈߦឬ޿ߚߩ߇࿑ 1 ߩ਄Ბߢ޽ࠆޕ CHELEM ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ CEPII ಽ㘃ߦࠃࠆ࠺࡯࠲߆ ࠄ⸘▚ߒߚ_{GL ᜰᢙߦട߃ޔෳ⠨ߣߒߡ ISIC ╙ 3}  ߩ4 ᩴಽ㘃ߦ߽ߣߠߊ࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ⸘▚ߒߚᜰᢙ ߩផ⒖߽ឝタߒߚޕ޿ߕࠇߩ♽೉߽㓸⸘ᦼ㑆ࠍㅢ ߓߡ਄᣹ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃߦ߅޿ߡ IIT ߩ㊀ⷐᕈ߇㜞߹ߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ⏕⹺ߢ߈ࠆޕ ߹ߚޔవㅀߒߚℂ↱߆ࠄ_{CHELEM ߦ߽ߣߠߊ GL} ᜰᢙߪBACI ߦ߽ߣߠߊᜰᢙࠃࠅߕߞߣᄢ߈ߊߥ ߞߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔ޿ߕࠇ߽⿲൓⊛ߦߪ਄᣹௑ะߦ޽ࠆޕ  ߥ߅ޔᣢሽᢥ₂ߢߪ㓸⸘ൻߐࠇߚGL ᜰᢙ߇ࡑ ࠢࡠߩ⾏ᤃ෼ᡰߩേะ߆ࠄᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌࠆߎߣ߇ᜰ ៰ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔_{Aquino 1978㧕ޕߚߣ߃߫(1-6)ᑼߦ} ߅޿ߡXiߣMiߩ୯߇ਵ㔌ߒߚ႐วޔi ࿖ߩャ಴౉ ຠ⋡᭴ᚑ߇ਇᄌߢ޽ߞߡ߽_IITiߩ୯ߪૐਅߔࠆޕ ࿑1 ਄Ბߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕో૕ߩ GL ᜰᢙߪ(1-6)ᑼߩ࿖ ೎_{GL ᜰᢙߩട㊀ᐔဋ୯ߢ޽ࠆߚ߼ޔၞౝ⻉࿖㑆} ߩขᒁ᭴ㅧߩ⿲൓⊛ߥᄌൻߛߌߢߥߊฦ࿖ߩ⾏ᤃ ෼ᡰߩ⍴ᦼ⊛ᄌേ߆ࠄ߽ᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ޿ࠆߪߕߢ ޽ࠆޕ_{CHELEM ߦ߽ߣߠߊ GL ᜰᢙߪ 1990 ᐕઍ} ೨ඨߦ৻ᤨ⊛ߦૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔߎߩᤨᦼߪࡃࡉ ࡞፣უᓟߩ᥊᳇ᓟㅌߦࠃߞߡᣣᧄߩャ౉߇ૐㅅߒޔ ߘߩઁߩ࿖ޘߢߪ⾗ᧄᵹ౉ߩടㅦߦࠃߞߡౝ㔛߇ ೝỗߐࠇޔャ౉߇ᕆჇߒߚᤨᦼߦ޽ߚߞߡ޿ࠆޕ ਄⸥ߩ໧㗴ࠍ⠨߃ࠆߚ߼ߦޔߎߎߢ_(1-8)ᑼߩGL ᜰᢙࠍએਅߩࠃ߁ߦᦠ߈⋥ߒߡߺࠃ߁ޕ (2-1)

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* * min , min , . min , i i i i i k k ij ij i j i k i i i IIT MB IIT X M MB X X M IIT X M z u ª º ¬ ¼

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ߚߛߒ ฝㄝߩ_{MB㧔Macroeconomic Balance㧕ߪฦ࿖ߩ} 㧔ઁߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߦኻߔࠆ㧕ャ಴✚㗵ߣャ౉✚ 㗵߇ࡃ࡜ࡦࠬߒߡ޿ࠆㇱಽߩၞౝ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦኻߔ ࠆᲧ₸ߢ޽ࠅޔฦ࿖ߩ㧔ઁߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ో૕ߦ ኻߔࠆ㧕⾏ᤃ෼ᡰߩဋⴧ߇፣ࠇࠆߣૐਅߔࠆޕIIT* ߪߘߩࠃ߁ߥࡑࠢࡠ⊛ߥ⾏ᤃ෼ᡰਇဋⴧߩᓇ㗀ࠍ ขࠅ㒰޿ߚ_{GL ᜰᢙߣ⠨߃ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕ} వߦ␜ߒߚCEPII ಽ㘃ߦ߽ߣߠߊ GL ᜰᢙߦ㑐ߒ ߡ_{(2-1)ᑼߩಽ⸃ࠍⴕ޿ޔߘߩ⚿ᨐࠍࠣ࡜ࡈൻߒߚ} ߩ߇࿑_{1 ߩਅᲑߢ޽ࠆޕߎࠇࠍ⷗ࠆߣ 1990 ᐕઍ೨} ඨ߿2002 ᐕએ㒠ߦ MB ߩ୯߇㗼⪺ߦૐਅߒޔၞౝ ⾏ᤃߩ_{GL ᜰᢙࠍ᛼ߒਅߍࠆ௛߈ࠍߒߡ޿ߚߎߣ} ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕࡑࠢࡠ⊛ߥ⾏ᤃ෼ᡰߩᓇ㗀ࠍขࠅ㒰޿ ߚ_IIT*ߪ⺞ᢛ೨ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߣ㘃ૃߒߚផ⒖ࠍ␜ߒ} ߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔᓟ⠪ࠃࠅߐࠄߦṖࠄ߆ߥ਄᣹࠻࡟ࡦ࠼ ࠍㄡߞߡ޿ࠆޕߒߚ߇ߞߡ࿑_{1 ߩੑߟߩࠣ࡜ࡈࠍ} ⷗ࠆ㒢ࠅޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃߦ߅ߌࠆ_{IIT ߩࠪ} ࠚࠕߪ㐳ᦼߦᷰߞߡẋㅴ⊛ߦ਄᣹ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ੹ᓟ ߽ߘࠇ߇⛮⛯ߔࠆߣᕁࠊࠇࠆߛࠈ߁ޕᔅߕߒ߽᣿ ␜⊛ߢߪߥ޿ߦߖࠃޔᄙߊߩᣢሽ⎇ⓥ߽ߘߩࠃ߁ ߥផ⺰ࠍⴕߞߡ޿ࠆࠃ߁ߦ⷗ฃߌࠄࠇࠆޕ

࿑_{1 ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ⾏ᤃߩ GL ᜰᢙߩផ⒖} 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 CHELEM (CEPIIಽ㘃) CHELEM (ISIC4ᩴ) BACI (HS6ᩴ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 IIT (Ꮐゲ) IIT* (Ꮐゲ) MB (ฝゲ) 㧔಴ᚲ㧕_{CHELEM ߣ BACI ࠍ߽ߣߦ⪺⠪㓸⸘ޕ} ߒ߆ߒޔ਄⸥ߩផ⺰߇ᱜߒ޿ߎߣߪታߪ᳿ߒߡ ⥄᣿ߢߥ޿ޕߎߩߎߣࠍℂ⸃ߔࠆߚ߼ߦޔ੹ᐲߪ 1,2,... k ࠍ

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₁㧔㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ㧕ޔ

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₂㧔ャㅍ↪ᯏ ᪾㧕ޔ

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₃㧔ߘߩઁߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ㧕ޔ

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₄㧔ൻቇ⵾ຠ㧕ޔ 5

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㧔❫⛽⵾ຠ㧕ޔ

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₆㧔ߘߩઁߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ㧕ߩ6 ㇱ 㐷ߦಽ㘃ߒޔ⵾ㅧᬺో૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙࠍ} (2-2)  1 2 min , min , k k ij ij i j i k k ij i j i k k k ij ij i j i k k ij i j i k X M IIT X X M X I I z  z z  z ª º ¬ ¼ ª º ¬ ¼ 

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6 ... min , k k ij ij i j i k k ij i j i k X M X I z  z ª º ¬ ¼ 

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ߣ޿߁ᒻߦᦠ߈⋥ߒߡߺࠃ߁ޕ ࿑2 ߩੑߟߩࠣ࡜ࡈߪవߩ GL ᜰᢙࠍ(2-2)ᑼฝ ㄝߩ_{6 㗄ࠍⓍߺ਄ߍࠆᒻߢឬ߈⋥ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆ} 㧔਄ᲑߣਅᲑߩࠣ࡜ࡈߪฦ㗄ߩ㗅⇟߇ㅒߦߥߞߡ ޿ࠆߎߣએᄖߪห৻ߢ޽ࠆ㧕ޕ਄Ბߩࠣ࡜ࡈࠍ⷗ࠆ ߣޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ_{IIT ߦ߅޿ߡ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ㧔એ} ਅޔޟ㔚ᯏޠ㧕ㇱ㐷߇࿶ୟ⊛ߦᄢ߈ߥࠪࠚࠕࠍභ߼ ߡ߅ࠅޔߘߩઁߩㇱ㐷ߩࠪࠚࠕ߇ዊߐ޿ߎߣ߇ಽ

࿑_{2 Ꮏᬺ⵾ຠߩ GL ᜰᢙߩㇱ㐷೎ౝ⸶} 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 㔚ሶ䊶㔚᳇ᯏེ ャㅍ↪ᯏེ 䈠䈱ઁ䈱ᯏ᪾ᯏེ ൻቇ ❫⛽䊶㕟⵾ຠ 䈠䈱ઁ䈱Ꮏᬺ⵾ຠ 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 䈠䈱ઁ䈱Ꮏᬺ⵾ຠ ❫⛽䊶㕟⵾ຠ ൻቇ 䈠䈱ઁ䈱ᯏ᪾ᯏེ ャㅍ↪ᯏེ 㔚ሶ䊶㔚᳇ᯏེ 㧔಴ᚲ㧕_{CHELEM ࠍ߽ߣߦ⪺⠪㓸⸘ޕ} ߆ࠆޕ߹ߚޔᎿᬺ⵾ຠో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙ߇ᄢ߈ߊ਄ ᣹ߒߚ_{1980 ᐕઍᓟඨߣ 1993㧙2000 ᐕߦߪ޿ߕࠇ} ߽㔚ᯏߩ_{IIT ߇ᕆჇߒߡ߅ࠅޔᓟ⠪߇೨⠪ߩਥ࿃} ߛߞߚߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕߐࠄߦ⥝๧ᷓ޿ߎߣߦޔਅ Ბߩࠣ࡜ࡈࠍ⷗ࠆߣ _{2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ߆ࠄၞౝ} ߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ㔚ᯏߩ_{IIT ߩࠪࠚࠕ} ߇િ߮ߥߊߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔ㔚ᯏߩ_{IIT ߣᎿᬺ⵾ຠో} ૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩ㑐ଥ߇ᄌൻߒߡ޿ࠆࠃ߁ߦ⷗ฃߌ} ࠄࠇࠆޕߔߥࠊߜޔ࿑1 ߢߪ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞౝ⾏ᤃ ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙ߇න⺞ߥ਄᣹ࠍ⛯ߌߡ޿ࠆࠃ߁ߦ⷗߃} ߚ߽ߩߩޔߘߩ⢛᥊ⷐ࿃ߪᄌൻߒߡ޿ࠆߣ޿߁ߎ ߣߢ޽ࠆޕ ߚߛߒ_{(2-2)ᑼߢߪ޽ࠆㇱ㐷ߩ⾏ᤃ㗵߇ᄌൻߔࠆ} ߣฝㄝߩߔߴߡߩ㗄ߩಽᲣ߇ᄌൻߔࠆߚ߼ޔ࿑ 2 ߪ෩ኒߥᗧ๧ߢߩ⵾ㅧᬺో૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙ߳ߩฦㇱ} 㐷ߩነਈᐲࠍ⴫ߒߡ޿ߥ޿ޕߎߎߢ_{(1-11)ᑼߦ୮ߞ} ߡᎿᬺ⵾ຠో૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙࠍ 6 ㇱ㐷ߩ GL ᜰᢙߩ} ട㊀ᐔဋ୯ߩᒻߦᦠ߈⋥ߒޔߐࠄߦߘߩ_{2 ὐ㑆ߩ} 㓏Ꮕࠍߣߞߡᢛℂߔࠆߣ

(2-3)

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એਅߩࠃ߁ߦᦠ߈⋥ߔߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕ (2-4)

 

 

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ㇱ㐷ߩነਈᐲࠍ_{(a)ޔ(b)ޔ(c)ߣ޿߁ 3 㗄ߩ๺ߣ} ߒߡ⴫⃻ߢ߈ࠆߎߣࠍ⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ_{(a)ߪ⵾ㅧᬺߩ} ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ

I

_mㇱ㐷ߩࠪࠚࠕߩᄌൻߩነਈ ಽߢ޽ࠅޔೋᦼᤨὐߢઁㇱ㐷ߦᲧߴߡ_{GL ᜰᢙ߇} 㜞߆ߞߚ㧔ૐ߆ߞߚ㧕ㇱ㐷ߦ߅޿ߡ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕ߇ ᜛ᄢ㧔❗ዊ㧕ߔࠆߣᱜߩ୯ࠍߣࠆޕ(b)ߪᒰ⹥ㇱ㐷 ⥄りߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩ਄᣹ߦࠃࠆነਈಽߢ޽ࠆޕ(c)ߪ} ᒰ⹥ㇱ㐷ߩ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕߣ_{GL ᜰᢙߩᄌേߩ⋧੕૞} ↪ߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠅޔ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕߣ_{GL ᜰᢙ߇ห} ᤨߦ਄᣹㧔ਅ⪭㧕ߔࠆߣᱜߣߥࠆޕ_{(2-4)ᑼߪනߥ} ࠆᕡ╬ᑼߦߔ߉ߥ޿߇ޔߘࠇࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߎߣߪ⵾ ㅧᬺో૕ߩ_{GL Ყ₸ߩᄌേߣฦㇱ㐷ߩ㑐ଥࠍℂ⸃} ߔࠆ৻ഥߣߥࠆޕ ⴫_{1 ߪ 1985 ᐕ߆ࠄ 5 ᐕ㑆㓒ߢ(1-11)ᑼߣ(2-4)ᑼ} ߩฝㄝߩ୯ࠍ㓸⸘ߒߚ⚿ᨐߢ޽ࠆޕ߹ߕᦨ਄Ბߩ ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔ1985㧙2005 ᐕߩ 20 ᐕ㑆ߦ Ꮏᬺ⵾ຠ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ㔚ᯏߩࠪࠚࠕ߇_24.8% ߆ࠄ_{48.1%߳ߣ߶߷୚Ⴧߔࠆ৻ᣇޔൻቇ⵾ຠએᄖ} ߩઁㇱ㐷ߩࠪࠚࠕ߇ᄢ߈ߊૐਅߒߚߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ ᰴߦੑᲑ⋡ߩㇱ㐷೎_{GL ᜰᢙࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔ1985 ᐕᰴ} ὐߢߪ㔚ᯏߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߪ⵾ㅧᬺో૕ߩ GL ᜰᢙࠃ} ࠅ⚂_{6.1%㜞޿ 33.8%ߦߔ߉ߥ߆ߞߚ߇ޔߘߩᓟޔ} ઁㇱ㐷ࠍ਄࿁ࠆࠬࡇ࡯࠼ߢ਄᣹ߒޔ_{2000 ᐕߦߪ⵾} ㅧᬺో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙࠍ 14.0%਄࿁ࠆ 59.9%ߦ㆐ߒ ߚޕߚߛߒ_{2000 ᐕ߆ࠄ2005 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡ㔚ᯏߩGL} ᜰᢙߪૐਅߒߡ߅ࠅޔ_{2005 ᐕߩ⵾ㅧᬺో૕ߩ GL} ᜰᢙߣ㔚ᯏߩ_{GLᜰᢙߩᏅߪ9.7%ߦ❗ዊߒߡ޿ࠆޕ} ⴫_{1 ߩਃᲑ⋡એਅ߇(2-4)ᑼߩነਈಽ⸃ߩ⚿ᨐߢ} ޽ࠆޕᦨਅᲑߩ(a)㧗(b)㧗(c)ᰣߦ߅ߌࠆޟߔߴߡߩ Ꮏᬺㇱ㐷ޠⴕߩ୯߇⵾ㅧᬺో૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩჇᷫ} ߦኻᔕߒߡ߅ࠅޔߘࠇߦ⛯ߊ_{6 ⴕ߇ฦㇱ㐷ߩነਈ} ᐲࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ_{1985 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2000 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡߪ} 㔚ᯏߩ_{(a)ޔ(b)ޔ(c)ߩ୯߇ߔߴߡᱜߦߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔ} ߘࠇࠄߩ๺ߢ޽ࠆ(a)㧗(b)㧗(c)߽ᄢ߈ߥᱜߩ୯ࠍ ߣߞߡ޿ࠆޕ৻ᣇޔઁߩ_{5 ㇱ㐷ߩ(a)㧗(b)㧗(c)ߩ୯} ߪ቟ቯߒߡ߅ࠄߕޔ_{1990 ᐕઍએ೨ߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩၞ} ౝ⾏ᤃߩ _{GL ᜰᢙߩ਄᣹ߩ⋧ᒰㇱಽ߇㔚ᯏߩ IIT} ߩჇടߦᡰ߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ߚߎߣࠍ⏕⹺ߢ߈ࠆޕߚߛ ߒ2000 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡߪ 6 ㇱ㐷ߩ⾏ᤃ✚ 㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ㔚ᯏߩࠪࠚࠕߩિ߮₸߇㊰ൻߒޔ㔚ᯏ ⥄りߩ_{GL ᜰᢙ߽ਅ⪭ߦォߓߚߚ߼ޔ㔚ᯏߩነਈ} ᐲߪࡑࠗ࠽ࠬ୯ߣߥߞߚޕߘࠇࠍ෻ᤋߒߡޔ₁₉₉₅ ᐕ߆ࠄ_{2000 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡ 8.5%߽਄᣹ߒߚᎿᬺ⵾ຠ} ో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙߪ 2000㧙2005 ᐕߦߪࠊߕ߆ 1.1% ߩ਄᣹ߦߣߤ߹ߞߡ޿ࠆޕߥ߅ޔ㔚ᯏએᄖߩ_{5 ㇱ} 㐷ో૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆߣ 1990 ᐕ߇ 29.1%ޔ} 2000 ᐕ߇ 33.5%ߣߥࠅޔ㔚ᯏએᄖߩ⵾ㅧᬺߦ߅ߌ ࠆ_{1990ᐕઍߩIITߩᐢ߇ࠅ߇㒢ቯ⊛ߥ߽ߩߛߞߚ} ߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ

3. ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺߩ᭴ㅧᄌൻߣ

↥ᬺౝ⾏ᤃ

೨▵ߢ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩIIT ߦ߅޿ߡ㔚ᯏ↥ᬺ߇㊀ⷐ ߥᓎഀࠍᨐߚߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ⷗ߚ߇ޔ⵾ㅧᬺో૕ ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩേะߦᄢ߈ߥᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ߡ޿ࠆߩߪ} ታߪ㔚ᯏߩਛߢ߽৻ㇱߩ↥ᬺ㧔ຠ⋡㧕ߢ޽ࠆޕߎ

⴫_{1 ㇱ㐷೎ߩ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕߣ GL ᜰᢙ} 㗄⋡ ↥ᬺㇱ㐷 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 w (%) ߔߴߡߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷 _{100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0} w (%) 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ 24.8 28.9 36.6 46.2 48.1 w (%) ャㅍ↪ᯏེ 8.1 5.3 5.1 3.2 3.7 w (%) ߘߩઁߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ 13.9 13.8 12.7 9.0 9.4 w (%) ൻቇ 11.8 11.8 11.2 11.8 13.0 w (%) ❫⛽࡮㕟⵾ຠ 14.6 15.5 13.5 11.8 7.6 w (%) ߘߩઁߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ 26.9 24.9 20.8 18.0 18.2 IIT (%) ߔߴߡߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷 27.7 34.9 37.4 45.9 46.9 IIT (%) 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ 33.8 46.5 52.5 59.9 56.6 IIT (%) ャㅍ↪ᯏེ 14.6 12.8 11.9 24.8 28.0 IIT (%) ߘߩઁߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ 13.8 17.8 17.0 26.0 33.2 IIT (%) ൻቇ 31.7 35.5 34.6 40.0 40.5 IIT (%) ❫⛽࡮㕟⵾ຠ 34.5 30.5 28.0 27.6 25.1 IIT (%) ߘߩઁߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ 27.6 38.2 37.1 39.4 46.1 (a ) ߔߴߡߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (a ) 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.3 (a ) ャㅍ↪ᯏེ 0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.1 (a ) ߘߩઁߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ 0.0 0.2 0.7 -0.1 (a ) ൻቇ 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 (a ) ❫⛽࡮㕟⵾ຠ 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 (a ) ߘߩઁߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 (b ) ߔߴߡߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷 7.2 2.5 8.5 1.1 (b ) 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ 3.1 1.7 2.7 -1.5 (b ) ャㅍ↪ᯏེ -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.1 (b ) ߘߩઁߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ 0.6 -0.1 1.1 0.6 (b ) ൻቇ 0.4 -0.1 0.6 0.1 (b ) ❫⛽࡮㕟⵾ຠ -0.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 (b ) ߘߩઁߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ 2.9 -0.3 0.5 1.2 (c ) ߔߴߡߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷 _{0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0} (c ) 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ 0.5 0.5 0.7 -0.1 (c ) ャㅍ↪ᯏེ 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 (c ) ߘߩઁߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 (c ) ൻቇ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (c ) ❫⛽࡮㕟⵾ຠ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 (c ) ߘߩઁߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ߔߴߡߩᎿᬺㇱ㐷 7.2 2.5 8.5 1.1 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ 3.9 3.1 4.9 -1.3 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ャㅍ↪ᯏེ 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ߘߩઁߩᯏ᪾ᯏེ 0.6 0.1 1.6 0.6 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ൻቇ 0.4 -0.1 0.6 0.0 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ❫⛽࡮㕟⵾ຠ -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.6 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ߘߩઁߩᎿᬺ⵾ຠ 2.6 -0.4 0.4 1.2 (಴ᚲ) CHELEMࠍ߽ߣߦ⪺⠪㓸⸘ޕ (ᵈ) ⍴ᦼ⊛ⷐ࿃ߩᓇ㗀ࠍシᷫߔࠆߚ߼ޔ⾏ᤃ㗵߅ࠃ߮GLᜰᢙߪ೨ᓟ3ᐕ㑆ߩ▚ⴚᐔဋ୯ߣߒߡ▚಴ߒߚޕ ߩὐࠍℂ⸃ߔࠆߚ߼ߦޔᰴߦ㔚ᯏㇱ㐷ࠍ_(i)ᖱႎㅢ ାᯏེޔ_{(ii)ߘߩઁߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེޔ(iii)⢻േㇱ} ຠޔ_{(iv)ฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠߩ 4 ߟߩዊㇱ㐷ߦಽഀߒޔ} ฦㇱ㐷ߩขᒁ㗵ߣ_{GL ᜰᢙࠍ⸘▚ߒߡߺࠃ߁ޕߎ}

ߎߢ_{(i)ߪࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲࡮ࠝࡈࠖࠬᯏེޔㅢାᯏེ} ߅ࠃ߮శቇᯏེ5ࠍޔ(ii)ߪ(i)એᄖߩ᳃↢࡮↥ᬺ↪ ߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེࠍᗧ๧ߒߡ߅ࠅޔߎࠇࠄߦߪቢ ᚑຠߛߌߢߥߊਛ㑆⽷߿ඨ⵾ຠޔ๟ㄝᯏེ߽฽߹ ࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ(iii)ߣ(iv)ߪ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ㇱຠߩਛߢ⾏ᤃ ຠ⋡ฬ߆ࠄᦨ⚳↪ㅜࠍ․ቯߢ߈ߥ޿߽ߩߢ޽ࠅޔ (i)߿(ii)ߦ฽߹ࠇࠆਛ㑆⽷ࠃࠅၮ␆⊛ߥㇱຠߛߣ ⠨߃ࠇ߫ࠃ޿ޕ_{(iii)ߩޟ⢻േㇱຠޠߣߪޟߘࠇ⥄૕} ߦ౉ജߣ಴ജࠍᜬߜޔ㔚ᵹࠍട߃ࠆߎߣߢ౉࡮಴ ജߦ৻ቯߩ㑐ଥࠍᜬߟㇱຠޠߩߎߣߢ޽ࠅޔߎࠇ ࠄ߇ᄙߊߩ㔚ሶᯏེߩᯏ⢻ࠍᡰ߃ߡ޿ࠆޕ_(iv)ߩ ޟฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠޠߩ߁ߜޔฃേㇱຠߣߪ⢻േㇱ ຠߣ⚵ߺวࠊߖߡ࿁〝ࠍᒻᚑߔࠆᛶ᛫߿ࠦࡦ࠺ࡦ ࠨߥߤࠍᗧ๧ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ⵬ഥㇱຠߪ⢻േㇱຠ߿ฃ േㇱຠߩធ⛯࡮࿕ቯߦ↪޿ࠄࠇࠆࡊ࡝ࡦ࠻ၮ᧼߿ ࠬࠗ࠶࠴ޔߘߩઁߩ㔀ᄙߥຠ⋡ࠍ฽ࠎߢ޿ࠆޕ  వㅀߒߚࠃ߁ߦޔᣢሽᢥ₂ߢߪ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߩ IIT ߦ߅޿ߡਛ㑆⽷߇㊀ⷐߥᓎഀࠍᨐߚߒߡ޿ࠆ ߎߣ߇ᜰ៰ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ਄⸥ߩ_{4 ㇱ㐷ߩ߁ߜ(i)ߣ} (ii)ߦߪᦨ⚳⽷ߣਛ㑆⽷߇ᷙ࿷ߒߡ޿ࠆߚ߼ޔߎߎ ߢߪ㔚ᯏో૕ߣߎࠇࠄ_{2 ㇱ㐷ߦ㑐ߒߡᦨ⚳⽷࡮ਛ} 㑆⽷೎ߩขᒁ㗵ߣ_{GL ᜰᢙ߽⸘▚ߒߡ߅ߊߎߣߦ} ߔࠆ 6ޕᦨ⚳⽷ߣਛ㑆⽷ߩಽ㘃ߪ⹦⚦ߥ⾏ᤃຠ⋡ ࠍ߽ߣߦⴕ߁ᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆߚ߼ޔߎߎߢߪ_CHELEM ߢߪߥߊBACI ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆޕߥ߅ޔBACI ߩຠ⋡ ߩᦨ⚳⽷࡮ਛ㑆⽷ㇱ㐷߳ߩ઀ಽߌߪ࿖ㅪ⛔⸘ዪ߇ ౏ ⴫ ߒ ߡ ޿ ࠆ _{HS ߣ Classification by Broad} Economic Categories㧔BEC ಽ㘃㧕ߩኻᔕ⴫ࠍ߽ߣ ߦⴕߞߚޕߎߎߢߩ㓸⸘ኻ⽎ᦼ㑆ߪ_{BACI ߦ߅޿} ߡ࠺࡯࠲߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆ1995㧙2005 ᐕߢ޽ࠆޕ  ਄⸥ߩ⸘▚ߩ⚿ᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚߩ߇⴫_{2 ߢ޽ࠆޕ} [A]ߩ⾏ᤃ㗵ࠍ⷗ࠆߣಽ߆ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ޿ߕࠇߩㇱ㐷 ߢ߽ฬ⋡ࡌ࡯ࠬߩ⾏ᤃ㗵ߪჇടߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔขᒁ 㗵߇ᄢ߈޿ߩߪ_{(i)ߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེߣ(iii)ߩ⢻േㇱ} ຠߢ޽ࠆޕ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߦ߅ߌࠆ⢻േㇱຠ⾏ᤃߩ߶ߣ ࠎߤߪඨዉ૕࠺ࡃࠗࠬߦ㑐ߔࠆ߽ߩߢ޽ࠅޔߘߩ

ᄢඨ߇㓸Ⓧ࿁〝㧔_{Integrated Circuitsޔએਅ IC㧕ߢ}

޽ࠆޕඨዉ૕࠺ࡃࠗࠬߩ૶ㅜߪ᜛ᄢ௑ะߦ޽ࠆ߇ޔ ੹ᣣߢ߽਎⇇ߢ↢↥ߐࠇࠆඨዉ૕࠺ࡃࠗࠬߩ⚂ ₇ ഀ㧔㊄㗵ࡌ࡯ࠬ㧕ߪࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲߿៤Ꮺ㔚⹤ߥߤ ߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེߦ៞タߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔_{Shimizu 2006㧕ޕ} ߹ߚޔ_{(iv)ߩฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠߩਛߢขᒁ㗵߇ᄙ޿ߩ} ߪ㔚ሶࡊ࡝ࡦ࠻ၮ᧼߿ࠦࡀࠢ࠲࡯ߥߤߢ޽ࠅޔߘ ߩ⋧ᒰㇱຠ߇ _{IC ߣߣ߽ߦᖱႎㅢାᯏེߩ⵾ㅧߦ} ೑↪ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕߒߚ߇ߞߡޔዋߥߊ ⷗Ⓧ߽ߞߡ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ᯏ⾏ᤃߩㆊඨ߇Ყセ⊛ዋ ᢙߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེߣߘߩㇱຠߦࠃߞߡභ߼ࠄࠇߡ ޿ࠆߎߣߦߥࠆޕ߹ߚޔᖱႎㅢାᯏེߦ߅޿ߡߪ ᦨ⚳⽷ࠃࠅਛ㑆⽷ߩขᒁ㗵߇ᄢ߈ߊޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉ ࿖㑆ߢ↢↥Ꮏ⒟ಽᬺ߇ᵴ⊒ߦⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ ࠣࡠࠬߩ⾏ᤃ㗵ࠍᄢ߈ߊߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ  ߚߛߒ⴫_{2 ਛᲑߩ[B]ࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔ1995㧙2005 ᐕ} ߩ 10 ᐕ㑆ߦ㔚ᯏో૕ߩ⾏ᤃ㗵ߦභ߼ࠆዊㇱ㐷ߩ ࠪࠚࠕ߇ᄌൻߒߚߎߣߦ᳇ߠߊޕ߹ߕޔᖱႎㅢା ᯏེߩࠪࠚࠕߪ _{1990 ᐕઍᓟඨߦᄢ߈ߊ਄᣹ߒߚ} ߇ޔߘߩᓟિ߮߇ࠬ࠻࠶ࡊߒޔ2003 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡࠊߕ߆ߥ߇ࠄૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆޕߚߛߒᖱ ႎㅢାᯏེߩਛߢ߽ᦨ⚳⽷ߩࠪࠚࠕߪ 10 ᐕ㑆ࠍ ㅢߓߡ਄᣹ߒߡ߅ࠅޔㄭᐕߦߥߞߡࠪࠚࠕ߇ૐਅ ߒߪߓ߼ߚߩߪਛ㑆⽷ߛߌߢ޽ࠆޕ߹ߚޔޟߘߩઁ ߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེޠߦ߅޿ߡߪ1990 ᐕઍᧃ߆ࠄᦨ ⚳⽷ߩࠪࠚࠕ߇ᕆૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ᦨᓟߦਅᲑߩ[C]ࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔ㔚ᯏో૕ߩ GL ᜰᢙ ߪ_{2001 ᐕ߹ߢ਄᣹ߒߚᓟߦᷫዋߦォߓߡ߅ࠅޔ⴫} 1 ߩ CHELEM ߦ߽ߣߠߊ㓸⸘୯ߣห᭽ߩផ⒖ࠍ ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕߚߛߒᦨ⚳⽷ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߪ 2000 ᐕઍ} ߦ౉ߞߡ߆ࠄ߽਄᣹ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ_{2001 ᐕએ㒠ߩ㔚ᯏ} ో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙߩૐਅ߇߽ߞ߬ࠄਛ㑆⽷ߩ GL ᜰ ᢙߩૐਅߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߛߞߚߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕਛ㑆⽷ ߩਛߢ߽_{(ii)ߩޟߘߩઁߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེޠߣ(iv)} ߩޟฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠޠߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߪ਄᣹ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ} 2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡૐਅߒߪߓ߼ߚߩߪ(i)ߩޟᖱႎ ㅢାᯏེޠߣ(iii)ߩޟ⢻േㇱຠޠߛߌߢ޽ࠆޕߒߚ ߇ߞߡޔ_{2000 ᐕ೨ᓟࠍႺߦ᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝߢ㔚ሶㇱ} ຠ߆ࠄᖱႎㅢାᯏེߩਛ㑆⽷ޔߘߒߡߘߩቢᚑຠ

⴫_{2 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེߩ⾏ᤃ㗵ߣ GL ᜰᢙ} [A] ⾏ᤃ㗵 (10ం☨࠼࡞) ዊㇱ㐷 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ⸘ _{427.7 434.0 521.0 639.6 848.1 1,107.7} ᦨ⚳⽷ 156.8 153.6 171.2 213.1 276.5 358.4 ਛ㑆⽷ 270.9 280.4 349.7 426.6 571.5 749.3 ਛ㑆⽷ / ᦨ⚳⽷ (%) 172.7 182.6 204.2 200.2 206.7 209.0 ᖱႎㅢାᯏེ _{139.5 149.3 187.1 243.4 325.5 423.6} ᦨ⚳⽷ 66.4 70.1 84.9 110.8 148.9 196.9 ਛ㑆⽷ 73.1 79.2 102.3 132.7 176.5 226.7 ਛ㑆⽷ / ᦨ⚳⽷ (%) 110.1 113.1 120.5 119.8 118.5 115.1 ߘߩઁߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ _{105.7 97.6 100.0 116.9 144.8 182.8} ᦨ⚳⽷ 90.5 83.5 86.4 102.3 127.6 161.5 ਛ㑆⽷ 15.2 14.1 13.6 14.6 17.2 21.3 ਛ㑆⽷ / ᦨ⚳⽷ (%) 16.8 16.9 15.7 14.3 13.5 13.2 ⢻േㇱຠ _{135.2 137.3 176.2 211.7 288.0 381.6} ฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠ _{47.3 49.8 57.7 67.6 89.8 119.7} [B] ⾏ᤃ㗵 (ࠪࠚࠕޔ%) ዊㇱ㐷 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ⸘ _{100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0} ᦨ⚳⽷ 36.7 35.4 32.9 33.3 32.6 32.4 ਛ㑆⽷ 63.3 64.6 67.1 66.7 67.4 67.6 ᖱႎㅢାᯏེ _{32.6 34.4 35.9 38.1 38.4 38.2} ᦨ⚳⽷ 15.5 16.1 16.3 17.3 17.6 17.8 ਛ㑆⽷ 17.1 18.3 19.6 20.7 20.8 20.5 ߘߩઁߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ 24.7 22.5 19.2 18.3 17.1 16.5 ᦨ⚳⽷ 21.1 19.2 16.6 16.0 15.0 14.6 ਛ㑆⽷ 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 ⢻േㇱຠ _{31.6 31.6 33.8 33.1 34.0 34.4} ฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠ _{11.1 11.5 11.1 10.6 10.6 10.8} [C] GLᜰᢙ (%) ዊㇱ㐷 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ⸘ _{36.9 38.5 39.5 40.1 39.4 39.2} ᦨ⚳⽷ 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.3 27.5 29.3 ਛ㑆⽷ 43.2 45.2 46.1 47.0 45.2 44.0 ᖱႎㅢାᯏེ _{43.5 43.8 42.2 40.1 38.1 38.1} ᦨ⚳⽷ 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.9 28.4 29.9 ਛ㑆⽷ 58.6 59.2 55.1 51.0 46.4 45.3 ߘߩઁߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ _{26.1 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.9 29.9} ᦨ⚳⽷ 25.5 25.9 25.7 25.6 26.4 28.5 ਛ㑆⽷ 29.9 31.7 32.9 34.9 38.7 40.2 ⢻േㇱຠ _{40.3 43.0 46.2 49.2 47.2 44.8} ฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠ _{31.7 32.8 32.8 34.8 37.9 39.7} (಴ᚲ) BACIࠍ߽ߣߦ⪺⠪㓸⸘ޕ(ᵈ) ೨ᓟ3ᐕ㑆ߩᐔဋ୯ޕߚߛߒ࠺࡯࠲ߩ೙⚂ߦࠃࠅޔ1995ᐕߣ2005ᐕߪߘࠇߙࠇ1995-1996ᐕ߅ࠃ߮2004-2005ᐕߩᐔဋ୯ޕ

ߦ޿ߚࠆ↢↥Ꮏ⒟ߩಽᬺ᭴ㅧߦ૗ࠄ߆ߩᄌൻ߇↢ ߓޔၞౝ⻉࿖㑆ߩ⾏ᤃ᭴ㅧ߇ᄌൻߔࠆߎߣߦࠃߞ ߡ㔚ᯏㇱ㐷ో૕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩૐਅ߇↢ߓߚ߽ߩߣ} ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ  ߘࠇߢߪ㔚ᯏో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙߩേะࠍᄌൻߐߖ ࠆ߶ߤᄢ߈ߥಽᬺ᭴ㅧߩᄌൻߣߪ૗ߛߞߚߩߛࠈ ߁߆ޕߎߩ໧㗴ࠍ⠨߃ࠆߚ߼ߦޔ߹ߕ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ 㔚ᯏ⾏ᤃߦභ߼ࠆฦ࿖ߩࠪࠚࠕߩផ⒖ࠍⷰኤߒߡ ߅ߎ߁ޕ࿑_{3 ߪ (a)ߔߴߡߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེޔ(b)} ࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲࡮ࠝࡈࠖࠬᯏེޔ(c)ㅢାᯏེޔ(d) ⢻േㇱຠߦ㑐ߒޔၞౝ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆฦ࿖ߩࠪ ࠚࠕ㧔ャ಴ࠪࠚࠕߣャ౉ࠪࠚࠕߩᐔဋ୯㧕ࠍ⸘▚ ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕߚߛߒߎߎߢߪ㑛ⷩߩଢቱࠍ⠨ ߃ޔਛ࿖ߣ㚅᷼ޔࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߣࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕޔߘ ߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߩ୯ࠍߘࠇߙࠇว▚ߒߡࠣ ࡜ࡈࠍឬ޿ߡ޿ࠆޕ  ࿑_{3 ࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔ޿ߕࠇߩຠ⋡ࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦ߅޿ߡ} ߽_{1980 ᐕઍᓟඨ߆ࠄ 1990 ᐕઍඨ߫ߔ߉ߦ߆ߌߡ} ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ࡮ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ࠍ฽߻᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ߩࠪࠚࠕ߇ᄢ߈ߊჇടߒߚߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕߎߩᤨ ᦼߪ☨♽߿ᣣ♽ߩડᬺ߇⋧ᰴ޿ߢࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞߿ ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕޔ࠲ࠗߥߤߦࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲㑐ㅪᯏེ߿ ඨዉ૕ߩ⵾ㅧၮ࿾ࠍ⸳┙ߒ 7ޔ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕߦ߅޿ ߡߎࠇࠄߩ⵾ຠߦ㑐ߔࠆ㊀ጀ⊛ߥ↢↥ࡀ࠶࠻ࡢ࡯ ࠢ߇ᒻᚑߐࠇߚᤨᦼߦ޽ߚߞߡ޿ࠆ㧔Dicken 2007㧕ޕ1980 ᐕઍඨ߫߆ࠄవㅴ࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ PC ߿ PC ๟ㄝᯏེߩ㔛ⷐ߇ᕆჇߒޔߐࠄߦ࿖Ⴚࠍ⿧߃ߚ ↢↥Ꮏ⒟ಽᬺߩᐢ߇ࠅߦࠃߞߡਛ㑆⽷⾏ᤃ߇ߘࠇ એ਄ߩࠬࡇ࡯࠼ߢჇടߒߚߎߣ߇᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ߩࠪࠚࠕ᜛ᄢࠍ߽ߚࠄߒߚߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ৻ᣇޔ2000 ᐕ೨ᓟ߆ࠄߪਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ߩࠪࠚࠕ߇ᕆჇߔࠆ৻ᣇ ߢ㖧࿖ߣบḧએᄖߩ࿖ޘߩࠪࠚࠕ߇❗ዊߒߡ߅ࠅޔ వߦ⷗ߚ᧲ࠕࠫࠕో૕ߩ㔚ᯏ⾏ᤃߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩ࠻} ࡟ࡦ࠼ߩᄌൻߦਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ߣߘࠇએᄖߩ࿖ޘߩข ᒁ᭴ㅧߩᄌൻ߇㑐ਈߒߡ޿ߚߎߣࠍ␜ໂߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ߥ߅ޔ_{CEPII ߩ࠺࡯࠲ߦࠃࠆ㒢ࠅޔਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ߩ} ߁ߜ㚅᷼ߩขᒁࠪࠚࠕߪ߻ߒࠈᷫዋߒߡ߅ࠅޔ 2000 ᐕઍߩਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ߩࠪࠚࠕߩ᜛ᄢߩ߶߷ߔߴ ߡ߇ਛ࿖ߦࠃࠆ߽ߩߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ  ߚߛߒ࿑_{3 ߪ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ࡌ࡯ࠬߩࠪࠚࠕߢ޽ࠆߚ} ߼ޔฦ࿖ߩャ಴㗵ߣャ౉㗵߇ߤߩࠃ߁ߦᄌൻߒߡ ޿ࠆ߆ߪ⺒ߺߣࠅߦߊ޿ޕߘߎߢᰴߦฦ࿖ߩ㔚ሶ ᯏེߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕߣャ౉ࠪࠚࠕࠍ೎ޘߦ⸘▚ߒޔ ೨⠪߆ࠄᓟ⠪ࠍᒁ޿ߚ⚐ャ಴㗵ߩၞౝ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦ ኻߔࠆᲧ₸߽▚಴ߒߡߺࠃ߁ޕ߹ߚޔၞౝ⻉࿖㑆 ߩᎿ⒟ಽᬺ᭴ㅧߩᄌൻࠍᛠីߔࠆߚ߼ߦޔ੹ᐲߪ ᖱႎㅢାᯏེో૕ࠍᦨ⚳⽷ߣਛ㑆⽷ߩੑߟߦಽ㘃 ߒߡࠪࠚࠕࠍ⸘▚ߒޔㇱຠߦ㑐ߒߡ߽⢻േㇱຠߦ ട߃ߡฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠߩࠪࠚࠕߩផ⒖߽⸘▚ߔࠆޕ ᦨ⚳⽷ߣਛ㑆⽷ߩ⼂೎ߦߪ_{BACI ࠍ೑↪ߔࠆᔅⷐ} ߇޽ࠆߚ߼ޔߎߎߢߩኻ⽎ᦼ㑆߽1995㧙2005 ᐕߩ ߺߣߥࠆޕ  ਄⸥ߩ⸘▚ߩ⚿ᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚߩ߇⴫3 ߢ޽ࠆޕ ߎࠇࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔਛ࿖㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕ߩ⚐ャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ㧔⚐ ャ಴ߩၞౝ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦኻߔࠆᲧ₸㧕ߩേะ߇ຠ⋡ ࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦࠃߞߡᄢ߈ߊ⇣ߥߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣߦ᳇ߠ ߊޕ߹ߕޔ_{[A]ߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེ㧔ᦨ⚳⽷㧕ߦ㑐ߒߡ} ߪޔ1995 ᐕᤨὐߢߪᄢ᏷ߥャ౉⿥ㆊߛߞߚ߽ߩߩޔ 2001ᐕ߆ࠄ2003ᐕߦ߆ߌߡャ಴⿥ㆊߦォߓޔ2005 ᐕߩ⚐ャ಴ࠪࠚࠕߪ _{8.7%ߦ਄ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ[B]ߩᖱ} ႎㅢାᯏེ㧔ਛ㑆⽷㧕ߦ߅޿ߡߪャ಴ࠪࠚࠕߣャ ౉ࠪࠚࠕ߇ߣ߽ߦჇടߒߚ߇ޔో૕ߣߒߡߪᄢ᏷ ߥ౉⿥߇⛯޿ߡ޿ࠆޕ[C]ߩ⢻േㇱຠߢߪャ಴ࠪࠚ ࠕ߇ࠊߕ߆ߒ߆Ⴧടߒߡ޿ߥ޿ߩߦኻߒߡャ౉ࠪ ࠚࠕߩ᜛ᄢ߇⪺ߒߊޔ_{2005 ᐕߦߪਛ࿖ߩャ౉⿥ㆊ} ಽߛߌߢၞౝ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߩ3 ಽߩ 1 ㄭߊߦ㆐ߒߡ޿ ࠆޕᦨᓟߦޔ_{[D]ߩฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠߪ[B]ߩᖱႎㅢ} ାᯏེ㧔ਛ㑆⽷㧕ߣห᭽ߩផ⒖ࠍ␜ߒߡ߅ࠅޔャ ಴ࠪࠚࠕߣャ౉ࠪࠚࠕ߇ߣ߽ߦᕆჇߒߥ߇ࠄᄢ᏷ ߥ౉⿥߇⛯޿ߡ޿ࠆޕ  ᰴߦઁߩ࿖ޘߩേะࠍⷰኤߔࠆߣޔ_{[A]ߩᖱႎㅢ} ାᯏེ㧔ᦨ⚳⽷㧕ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ_{1990 ᐕઍᓟඨ߆ࠄᣣ} ᧄߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ߇ỗᷫߒޔ2000 ᐕ೨ᓟ߆ࠄߪࡑ࡟ ࡯ࠪࠕ࡮ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߣบḧߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ߽ᄢ߈ ߊ⪭ߜㄟࠎߢ޿ࠆޕ_{[B]ߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེ㧔ਛ㑆⽷㧕} ߦ߅޿ߡߪ_{2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ࡮ࠪࡦࠟ}

࿑_{3 ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ⾏ᤃߦභ߼ࠆฦ࿖ߩࠪࠚࠕ} (a) 䈜䈼䈩䈱㔚ሶ䊶㔚᳇ᯏེ 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 ਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ ߘߩઁ᧲ධ㨻㩆㩨㨻 㩙㩤㨺㩆㨻㨯㩆㩧㩀㩨㩘㩩㨺㩣 ᣣᧄ บḧ 㖧࿖ (b) 䉮䊮䊏䊠䊷䉺䊶䉥䊐䉞䉴ᯏེ 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 ਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ ߘߩઁ᧲ධ㨻㩆㩨㨻 㩙㩤㨺㩆㨻㨯㩆㩧㩀㩨㩘㩩㨺㩣 ᣣᧄ บḧ 㖧࿖ (c) ㅢାᯏེ 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 ਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ ߘߩઁ᧲ධ㨻㩆㩨㨻 㩙㩤㨺㩆㨻㨯㩆㩧㩀㩨㩘㩩㨺㩣 ᣣᧄ บḧ 㖧࿖ (d) ⢻േㇱຠ 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 ਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ ߘߩઁ ᧲ධ㨻㩆㩨㨻 㩙㩤㨺㩆㨻㨯㩆㩧㩀㩨㩘㩩㨺㩣 ᣣᧄ บḧ 㖧࿖ (಴ᚲ) CHELEM ࠍ߽ߣߦ⪺⠪㓸⸘ޕ (ᵈ) ޟߘߩઁ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕޠߪࠗࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕޔࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦޔ࠲ࠗޔࡌ࠻࠽ࡓޕ

⴫_{3 ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ⾏ᤃߦභ߼ࠆฦ࿖ߩࠪࠚࠕ㧔%㧕} [A] ᖱႎㅢାᯏེ (ᦨ⚳⽷) ࿖࡮࿾ၞ 㗄⋡ 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 ᣣᧄ ャ಴ 22.6 16.6 12.0 9.3 7.2 3.9 ᣣᧄ ャ౉ 26.9 25.9 30.8 27.1 25.4 22.9 ᣣᧄ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-4.3 -9.3 -18.9 -17.8 -18.2 -19.0} 㖧࿖ ャ಴ 3.9 4.6 10.2 12.5 15.5 10.5 㖧࿖ ャ౉ 5.8 4.8 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.1 㖧࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-2.0 -0.2 4.3 6.3 9.3 4.4} บḧ ャ಴ 12.1 10.7 11.7 11.9 9.3 5.1 บḧ ャ౉ 5.8 7.9 9.9 8.6 6.6 4.8 บḧ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{6.2 2.8 1.8 3.4 2.7 0.4} ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ಴ 31.8 30.5 29.6 24.5 16.8 16.1 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ౉ 23.7 23.9 18.3 19.2 16.7 17.6 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞} ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{8.1 6.7 11.3 5.2 0.1 -1.4} ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴ 9.2 14.8 13.1 12.2 12.5 13.7 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ౉ 5.5 5.1 3.6 5.7 6.9 6.8 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{3.7 9.6 9.5 6.5 5.6 6.9} ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ಴ 20.5 22.7 23.4 29.6 38.7 50.6 ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ౉ 32.2 32.3 31.4 33.3 38.2 41.9 ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼} ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-11.8 -9.6 -8.1 -3.6 0.5 8.7} [B] ᖱႎㅢାᯏེ (ਛ㑆⽷) ࿖࡮࿾ၞ 㗄⋡ 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 ᣣᧄ ャ಴ 29.4 24.4 24.0 21.1 22.3 19.1 ᣣᧄ ャ౉ 13.5 12.1 14.4 15.5 12.4 11.6 ᣣᧄ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{15.8 12.3 9.6 5.6 9.9 7.4} 㖧࿖ ャ಴ 4.9 4.7 5.8 7.1 11.4 11.2 㖧࿖ ャ౉ 5.1 4.6 6.3 6.6 5.3 5.1 㖧࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-0.2 0.1 -0.6 0.5 6.1 6.1} บḧ ャ಴ 9.9 9.0 10.1 10.3 9.7 9.4 บḧ ャ౉ 6.0 6.3 9.3 7.7 6.3 5.0 บḧ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{3.9 2.7 0.8 2.5 3.3 4.4} ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ಴ 22.5 25.4 19.3 19.6 13.2 12.9 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ౉ 34.6 32.7 26.3 22.1 18.4 17.9 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞} ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-12.1 -7.4 -7.1 -2.5 -5.2 -4.9} ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴ 13.2 12.9 16.6 13.7 10.8 9.4 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ౉ 11.0 14.0 10.9 10.0 9.2 8.1 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{2.2 -1.1 5.6 3.7 1.6 1.2} ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ಴ 20.2 23.7 24.3 28.1 32.5 38.1 ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ౉ 29.8 30.4 32.8 38.0 48.3 52.3 ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼} ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-9.6 -6.7 -8.5 -9.9 -15.8 -14.2} (ᰴࡍ࡯ࠫߦ⛯ߊ)

[C] ⢻േㇱຠ ࿖࡮࿾ၞ 㗄⋡ 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 ᣣᧄ ャ಴ 39.6 31.8 26.4 23.6 20.5 15.8 ᣣᧄ ャ౉ 9.6 8.7 9.4 10.8 8.6 7.9 ᣣᧄ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{30.0 23.1 17.0 12.8 11.8 7.9} 㖧࿖ ャ಴ 15.1 14.0 13.2 10.9 10.8 12.5 㖧࿖ ャ౉ 8.5 8.5 9.9 11.0 9.9 8.1 㖧࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{6.6 5.5 3.3 0.0 0.9 4.5} บḧ ャ಴ 8.3 10.9 13.2 17.8 19.9 25.4 บḧ ャ౉ 15.0 14.3 14.7 11.8 11.1 10.0 บḧ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-6.7 -3.4 -1.5 5.9 8.8 15.4} ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ಴ 24.7 26.1 25.4 25.2 24.7 22.2 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ౉ 37.4 34.9 30.5 26.2 21.5 22.1 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞} ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-12.7 -8.8 -5.1 -1.0 3.2 0.1} ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴ 5.1 10.0 13.4 13.1 13.8 11.4 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ౉ 8.3 10.5 10.0 8.0 7.4 6.6 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-3.2 -0.5 3.4 5.1 6.4 4.8} ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ಴ 7.3 7.1 8.4 9.4 10.4 12.7 ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ౉ 21.3 23.1 25.5 32.2 41.5 45.3 ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼} ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-14.0 -16.0 -17.1 -22.8 -31.1 -32.6} [D] ฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠ ࿖࡮࿾ၞ 㗄⋡ 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 ᣣᧄ ャ಴ 42.9 37.7 37.2 33.1 29.6 27.4 ᣣᧄ ャ౉ 9.6 11.9 13.3 14.0 13.9 13.5 ᣣᧄ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ 33.3 25.8 24.0 19.1 15.7 13.9 㖧࿖ ャ಴ 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.7 6.4 7.0 㖧࿖ ャ౉ 7.7 7.9 9.2 8.5 8.9 9.1 㖧࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ -2.7 -3.4 -5.2 -3.8 -2.5 -2.1 บḧ ャ಴ 12.0 11.7 11.2 11.1 11.5 10.7 บḧ ャ౉ 9.0 9.0 9.4 8.0 7.4 6.6 บḧ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{3.0 2.7 1.8 3.1 4.1 4.1} ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ಴ 13.9 14.3 12.0 10.6 9.0 8.2 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ౉ 28.1 24.3 21.4 19.5 15.1 14.3 ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ + ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-14.2 -10.1 -9.4 -8.9 -6.0 -6.1} ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴ 6.0 8.3 9.2 10.6 9.6 9.7 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ౉ 15.5 15.9 12.8 12.9 11.6 10.6 ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-9.5 -7.6 -3.5 -2.2 -2.0 -0.9} ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ಴ 20.2 23.6 26.3 29.9 33.8 37.0 ਛ࿖ + 㚅᷼ ャ౉ 30.1 31.1 33.9 37.2 43.1 45.9 ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼} ャ಴㧙ャ౉ _{-9.9 -7.4 -7.6 -7.3 -9.2 -8.9} (಴ᚲ) BACIࠍ߽ߣߦ⪺⠪㓸⸘ޕ (ᵈ) ޟߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ޠߪࠗࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕޔࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦޔ࠲ࠗޔࡌ࠻࠽ࡓޕ

ࡐ࡯࡞ࠍ฽߻᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕߩᷫዋ ߇ᄢ߈ߊޔ㖧࿖ߣบḧߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕߪᲧセ⊛⪭ߜ ⌕޿ߡ޿ࠆޕ_{[C]ߩ⢻േㇱຠߦ㑐ߒߡߪ 1995 ᐕᤨ} ὐߢၞౝขᒁ✚㗵ߩ_{40%ㄭߊࠍභ߼ߡ޿ߚᣣᧄߩ} ャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ߇ᕆᷫߒޔߘߩ৻ᣇߢ1990 ᐕઍᧃ߆ࠄ บḧߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ߇ᕆჇߒߚޕ߹ߚޔࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ࡮ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߦ߅޿ߡߪャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ߇િ߮ᖠ߻ਛ ߢャ౉ࠪࠚࠕ߇ᄢ߈ߊૐਅߒߚߚ߼ޔ_{1995 ᐕᤨὐ} ߢᄢ᏷౉⿥ߛߞߚ⾏ᤃ෼ᡰ߇ _{2000 ᐕઍೋ㗡ߦ߶} ߷ဋⴧߒߚޕ[D]ߩฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠߦ߅޿ߡߪਛ ࿖࡮㚅᷼ߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕჇടߣ⿷ਗߺࠍឥ߃ࠆᒻߢ ᣣᧄߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ߇ᷫዋߒޔࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ࡮ࠪࡦࠟ ࡐ࡯࡞ࠍ฽߻᧲ධࠕࠫࠕߦ߅޿ߡߪャ౉ࠪࠚࠕߩ ᕆᷫߦࠃߞߡャ౉⿥ㆊ߇❗ዊߒߡ޿ࠆޕ  2000 ᐕ೨ᓟ߆ࠄ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ሶ⵾ຠ⾏ᤃߦභ ߼ࠆਛ࿖㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕ߩࠪࠚࠕ߇ỗჇߒޔઁߩ࿖ޘ ߩ⾏ᤃ᭴ㅧߦ߽ᄢ߈ߥᄌൻ߇↢ߓߚߩߪޔ_{1990 ᐕ} ઍᓟඨ߆ࠄ᧲ࠕࠫࠕౝᄖߩ⋥ធᛩ⾗ߩᵹࠇ߇ᄌൻ ߒޔਛ࿖ߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེ↥ᬺ߇ᕆᚑ㐳ࠍ㐿ᆎߒߚ ߚ߼ߛߣᕁࠊࠇࠆ㧔Yusuf 2008㧕ޕ1990 ᐕઍඨ߫߹ ߢߩኻਛᛩ⾗ߪシᎿᬺ߿ൻቇ↥ᬺޔવ⛔⊛ߥ㔚᳇ ᯏེ↥ᬺ߇ਛᔃߛߞߚ߇ޔ_{1997 ᐕߩࠕࠫࠕㅢ⽻ෂ} ᯏߦࠃߞߡ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⚻ᷣ߇ᷙੂߒߚߎߣޔਛ࿖ ߩ_{WTO ട⋖߇⏕ታⷞߐࠇࠆਛߢኻਛᛩ⾗࡝ࠬࠢ} ߇ૐਅߒߚߎߣ8ޔWTO ട⋖೨ᓟߦᄢ᏷ߥャ౉㑐 ⒢ߩ೥ᷫ߇ⴕࠊࠇߚߎߣޔߐࠄߦ_{2000 ᐕ೨ᓟ߆ࠄ} ਛ࿖࿖ౝߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེᏒ႐߇ᕆ᜛ᄢߒߪߓ߼ߚ ߎߣߥߤࠍ⢛᥊ߦޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕౝᄖߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེ ࡔ࡯ࠞ࡯ߩኻਛᛩ⾗߇ᕆჇߒޔᣢሽߩ↢↥᜚ὐࠍ ਛ࿖ߦ⒖▤ߔࠆേ߈߽⋡┙ߟࠃ߁ߦߥߞߚ 㧔_{Kumakura 2008㧕ޕ⴫ 2 ߢ⷗ߚࠃ߁ߦޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ} ߩ㔚ᯏ⾏ᤃߩਛߢ_{2000ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡGLᜰᢙ߇ૐ} ਅߒߪߓ߼ߚߩߪᖱႎㅢାᯏེߩਛ㑆⽷ߣ⢻േㇱ ຠߛߌߢ޽ࠅޔ⴫_{3 ߦ߅޿ߡߎߩᤨᦼߦߎࠇࠄߩ} ຠ⋡ߩャ಴౉ਇဋⴧ߇ᕆㅦߦ᜛ᄢߒߚߩߪਛ࿖ 㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕ߢ޽ࠆޕ߹ߚޔ࿑_{3(a)ߦ߅޿ߡ 2000 ᐕ} ೨ᓟ߆ࠄਛ࿖ߩ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕ߇ᕆჇߔࠆਛߢ㖧࿖ߣ บḧߩ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕ߇Ყセ⊛቟ቯߒߡ޿ߚ߇ޔ⴫ ₃ ࠍ⷗ࠆߣ _{2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ㖧࿖ߣบḧߢߪߘࠇ} ߙࠇᖱႎㅢାᯏེߩਛ㑆⽷ߣ⢻േㇱຠߩャ಴ࠪࠚ ࠕ߇㗼⪺ߦჇടߒߡ߅ࠅޔߎࠇࠄߩ࿖ޘ߇ਛ࿖߳ ߩਛ㑆⽷ャ಴ࠍჇ߿ߔߎߣߦࠃߞߡャ಴ࠪࠚࠕࠍ ⛽ᜬߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕߔߥࠊߜޔߘࠇ߹ߢ ਛ࿖એᄖߩ࿖ޘߦ߅޿ߡಽᢔߒߡⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ߚᖱ ႎㅢାᯏེ↢↥ߩᓟᎿ⒟߇ਛ࿖ߦ㓸ਛߔࠆ௑ะ߇ ᒝ߹ߞߚߎߣޔߘࠇߦ઻ߞߡ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖㑆ߩ ਛ㑆⽷ߩขᒁ߇⋧ኻ⊛ߦᷫዋߒߚߎߣߥߤߦࠃࠅޔ ᧲ࠕࠫࠕో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙ߇ૐਅߒߚߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ  ਄⸥ߩὐࠍ⏕⹺ߔࠆߚ߼ߦޔߎߎߢ೨▵ߣห᭽ ߩᚻᴺࠍ೑↪ߒޔ_{1995 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡߩ} ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ᯏ⾏ᤃߩGL ᜰᢙߩᄌേࠍฦ࿖ߩነ ਈᐲߦಽ⸃ߒߡߺࠃ߁ޕߎߎߢߪ㔚ᯏ↥ᬺో૕ࠍ ᦨ⚳⽷ㇱ㐷㧔

I

1㧕ߣਛ㑆⽷ㇱ㐷㧔

I

2㧕ߦ඙ಽߒޔ t ᐕߦ߅ߌࠆi ࿖ߩ

Ǿ

mㇱ㐷ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙࠍIITi t, ( )}Im ޔ ᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝߩ

Ǿ

mㇱ㐷ߩ⾏ᤃ✚㗵ߦභ߼ࠆ_{i ࿖} ߩࠪࠚࠕࠍ_{wi t, ( )}Im ߣᦠߊߎߣߦߔࠆޕߘߒߡ (1-8)ᑼߦ୮޿ޔㇱ㐷೎ߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕో૕ߩ GL ᜰᢙ ࠍએਅߩࠃ߁ߥฦ࿖ߩGL ᜰᢙߩട㊀ᐔဋ୯ߣߒ ߡ⴫⃻ߔࠆޕ (3-1)

 

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w I IIT I ߐࠄߦ೨▵ߣหߓⷐ㗔ߢt ᐕߣ s ᐕߩ㓏Ꮕࠍߣߞ ߡᢛℂߔࠆߣ (3-2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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IIT I ߪ_{IITi s, ( )}Im _{IITs( )}Im ޔ

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O_{ㇱ㐷ߦ㑐ߔࠆi ࿖ߩGL ᜰᢙߣ᧲ࠕࠫ}

ࠕో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙߩᏅࠍᗧ๧ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

BACI ࠍ↪޿ߡ 1995 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡ 2

ᐕ㑆㓒ߢ_{(3-1)ᑼߣ(3-2)ᑼߩ୯ࠍ⸘▚ߒߚ⚿ᨐ߇⴫}

⴫_{4 ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེ⾏ᤃߦ߅ߌࠆฦ࿖ߩࠪࠚࠕߣ GL ᜰᢙ} [A] ᦨ⚳⽷ 㗄⋡ ࿖࡮࿾ၞ _{1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005} w (%) ߔߴߡߩ࿖ޘ _{100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0} w (%) ᣣᧄ _{24.4 23.3 23.2 21.5 19.1 17.8} w (%) 㖧࿖ _{6.1 6.0 7.1 8.1 8.3 7.8} w (%) บḧ 7.9 8.4 9.7 9.4 9.1 8.6 w (%) ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ 23.7 22.3 19.8 17.6 14.5 13.4} w (%) ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ 8.5 8.9 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.6 w (%) ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼ 29.3 31.2 32.1 34.8 40.2 43.8} IIT (%) ߔߴߡߩ࿖ޘ _{26.1 26.2 26.1 26.3 27.5 29.3} IIT (%) ᣣᧄ _{27.0 26.4 25.2 25.0 25.3 25.4} IIT (%) 㖧࿖ 27.6 28.0 28.5 32.6 35.1 36.2 IIT (%) บḧ _{32.7 31.0 28.3 30.7 32.5 30.3} IIT (%) ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ 27.7 29.2 31.3 31.9 32.6 32.8} IIT (%) ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ 21.0 18.5 18.1 18.6 21.6 21.0 IIT (%) ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼ 23.4 24.5 24.4 23.6 25.2 29.8} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ߔߴߡߩ࿖ޘ _{0.1 -0.1 0.2 1.2 1.8} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ᣣᧄ _{-0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) 㖧࿖ 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) บḧ _{-0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼ 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 1.9} [B] ਛ㑆⽷ 㗄⋡ ࿖࡮࿾ၞ _{1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005} w (%) ߔߴߡߩ࿖ޘ _{100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0} w (%) ᣣᧄ _{23.3 21.1 19.8 18.7 16.8 15.4} w (%) 㖧࿖ _{8.6 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.4} w (%) บḧ 10.4 10.7 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.7 w (%) ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ 27.4 26.4 24.2 22.1 19.0 17.9} w (%) ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ _{9.7 11.5 11.9 10.8 10.1 9.4} w (%) ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼} 20.7 22.1 23.6 27.3 32.5 35.2 IIT (%) ߔߴߡߩ࿖ޘ _{43.2 45.2 46.1 47.0 45.2 44.0} IIT (%) ᣣᧄ _{37.6 41.7 45.6 47.0 47.5 48.3} IIT (%) 㖧࿖ _{43.2 46.8 52.0 57.7 55.3 54.6} IIT (%) บḧ 46.2 49.1 51.2 49.4 46.8 45.3 IIT (%) ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ 49.5 51.0 50.4 52.6 51.1 49.4} IIT (%) ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ 39.1 39.2 40.0 41.5 41.3 41.2 IIT (%) ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼ 41.6 42.2 40.3 40.1 38.5 36.8} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ߔߴߡߩ࿖ޘ _{2.0 0.9 0.9 -1.8 -1.2} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ᣣᧄ _{1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) 㖧࿖ _{0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.2 0.0} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) บḧ _{0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ _{+ ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ 0.3 -0.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.4} (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ߘߩઁߩ᧲ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 (a ) + (b ) + (c ) ਛ࿖ _{+ 㚅᷼ 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8} (಴ᚲ) BACIࠍ߽ߣߦ⪺⠪㓸⸘ޕ(ᵈ) ⴫3ߦหߓޕ

(b)ޔ(c)ࠍ୘೎ߦႎ๔ߔࠆߎߣߪߖߕޔߎࠇࠄ 3 㗄 ߩ๺ߛߌࠍឝタߒߡ޿ࠆޕ਄Ბߩ[A]ࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔᦨ ⚳⽷ߦ㑐ߒߡߪ_{2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡਛ࿖㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕} ߩ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕߣ_{GL ᜰᢙ߇ᕆỗߦ਄᣹ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ} ߘࠇ߇᧲ࠕࠫࠕో૕ߩGL ᜰᢙࠍ᛼ߒ਄ߍࠆ௛߈ ࠍߒߡ޿ߚߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕ⴫_{3[A]ߦ߅޿ߡ⷗ߚࠃ} ߁ߦޔ_{1995 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2000 ᐕઍೋ㗡ߦ߆ߌߡߩᦼ㑆} ߪਛ࿖ߩᖱႎㅢାᯏེߩᦨ⚳⽷ߩャ౉⿥ㆊ߇ᕆㅦ ߦ❗ዊߒߚᤨᦼߦᒰߚߞߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚޔߘߩᓟߪ ャ಴⿥ㆊ߇᜛ᄢߒߚ߇ޔᣰ⋓ߥౝ㔛ߦ‧ᒁߐࠇߡ ャ౉㗵߽Ⴧടߒߡ޿ࠆޕߘߩߚ߼ޔ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕߣ GL ᜰᢙߩ਄᣹߇หᤨߦ↢ߓߚ߽ߩߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ  ৻ᣇޔਅᲑߩ_{[B]ࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔਛ㑆⽷ߦ㑐ߒߡߪਛ} ࿖㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙ߇ 1990 ᐕઍᧃ߆ࠄᄢ߈ߊ} ૐਅߒޔߘߩᓟࠍㅊ߁ࠃ߁ߦ᧲ࠕࠫࠕో૕ߩ GL ᜰᢙ߽ૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆޕߎࠇߪ⴫_{3 ߢ⷗ߚࠃ߁ߦޔ} ਛ࿖߇⢻േㇱຠࠍਛᔃߣߒߚਛ㑆⽷ߩャ౉⿥ㆊࠍ ⤘ࠄ߹ߖߥ߇ࠄᖱႎㅢାᯏེߩᦨ⚳⽷ߩャ಴ࠍჇ ടߐߖߚߚ߼ߣᕁࠊࠇޔߘߩற⸽ߣߒߡਛ࿖ߦኻ ߔࠆਛ㑆⽷ߩਥⷐଏ⛎࿖ߢ޽ࠆ㖧࿖߿บḧߩ GL ᜰᢙ߽⋡┙ߞߡૐਅߒߡ޿ࠆޕ ߥ߅ޔ⴫_{4[B]ߢߪ 2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡࡑ࡟࡯ࠪ} ࠕ࡮ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߩ⾏ᤃࠪࠚࠕߣ_{GL ᜰᢙ߽ૐਅ} ௑ะߦ޽ࠆޕ߆ߟߡߪࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ߿ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ ߦ߅޿ߡIC ߥߤ㔚ሶㇱຠߩ೨Ꮏ⒟ࠍⴕ޿ޔߘࠇࠍ ⾓㊄᳓Ḱߩૐ޿ࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦߥߤߦャ಴ߒߡഭ௛㓸 ⚂⊛ߥᓟᎿ⒟ࠍⴕ޿ޔቢᚑߐࠇߚㇱຠࠍࡑ࡟࡯ࠪ ࠕ߿ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߦᜬߜᏫߞߡࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲ᯏེ ߿ࠝࡈࠖࠬᯏེߦ៞タߒߚ਄ߢ╙ਃ࿖ߦャ಴ߔࠆ ߣ޿ߞߚขᒁ߇ᵴ⊒ߦⴕࠊࠇߡ޿ߚޕߒ߆ߒㄭᐕ ߢߪࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ߿ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߥߤߦ߅޿ߡ _IC ߩඨ⵾ຠࠍ⵾ㅧߒޔߘࠇࠍਛ࿖࿖ౝߢታⵝߒߚ਄ ߢ㔚ሶᯏེߩᦨ⚳Ꮏ⒟߹ߢⴕ߁ࠤ࡯ࠬ߇Ⴧടߒߡ ޿ࠆޕ⴫_{3 ߦ߅޿ߡࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕ࡮ࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߩ} ⢻േㇱຠߩャ౉ࠪࠚࠕ߇ャ಴ࠪࠚࠕએ਄ߦ⪭ߜㄟ ࠎߢ޿ߚߩߪߘߩࠃ߁ߥ࿖㓙㑆ߩᎿ⒟ಽᬺ᭴ㅧߩ ᄌൻࠍ෻ᤋߒߚ߽ߩߣᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ⴫_{4 ࠍ⷗ࠆ㒢ࠅޔ} ᦨ⚳⽷ߦ߅޿ߡ߽ਛ㑆⽷ߦ߅޿ߡ߽ _{2000 ᐕઍએ} 㒠ߪਛ࿖ߩነਈᐲ߇߈ࠊ߼ߡᄢ߈ߊߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔ ਛ࿖ࠍਛᔃߣߒߚ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩᎿ⒟ಽᬺߩ࡝ࠬ࠻࡜ ࠢ࠴ࡖ࡝ࡦࠣ߇㔚ᯏߩၞౝ⾏ᤃߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩ࠻࡟} ࡦ࠼ߩᄌൻߩਥ࿃ߛߞߚߎߣࠍⵣઃߌߡ޿ࠆޕ

4. ੹ᓟߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ↥ᬺౝ⾏ᤃߩዷᦸ

೨▵ߩಽᨆߦࠃࠅޔ_{2000 ᐕ೨ᓟ߆ࠄᖱႎㅢାᯏ} ེ↢↥ߩᓟᎿ⒟ߩਛ࿖߳ߩ㓸ਛ௑ะ߇ᒝ߹ࠆਛߢ ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖㑆ߩ⾏ᤃ᭴ㅧ߇ᄌൻߒޔ1990 ᐕઍ߹ ߢߩࠃ߁ߦ㔚ᯏ↥ᬺ߇᧲ࠕࠫࠕߦ߅޿ߡၞౝ⾏ᤃ ߣ_{IIT ߩ᜛ᄢߩਥዉᓎࠍᨐߚߖߥߊߥߞߚߎߣ߇} ␜ߐࠇߚޕ੹ᓟޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ_{IIT ߣၞౝ⾏ᤃߩ᭴} ㅧߪߤߩࠃ߁ߦᄌൻߒߡࠁߊߩߛࠈ߁߆ޕᧄ┨ߢ ߎߩ໧㗴ࠍ⹦⚦ߦಽᨆߔࠆߎߣߪߢ߈ߥ޿߇ޔߎ ߎߢ㔚ᯏ↥ᬺߣߘࠇએᄖߩ⵾ㅧᬺߦಽߌߡ⧯ᐓߩ ⠨ኤࠍⴕߞߡ߅ߎ߁ޕ 㔚ሶ࡮㔚᳇ᯏེߦ㑐ߒߡߪޔᖱႎㅢାᯏེࠍਛ ᔃߣߔࠆ㔚ሶᯏེߩ↢↥ߩਛ࿖߳ߩ㓸ਛ߇ߤߎ߹ ߢㅴⴕߔࠆ߆߇ᒰ㕙ߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝߩ⾏ᤃ᭴ㅧࠍ ᳿߼ࠆਥ࿃ߣߥࠈ߁ޕ೨▵ߢߪਛ࿖߇ㄭ㓞ߩ㖧࿖ ߿บḧ߆ࠄਛ㑆⽷ߩャ౉ࠍ⤘ࠄ߹ߖߥ߇ࠄᖱႎㅢ ାᯏེߩቢᚑຠߩャ಴ࠍჇ߿ߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ⷗ߚޕ ߒ߆ߒ⴫_{3 ࠍ⹦ߒߊⷰኤߔࠆߣޔ2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞ} ߡ߆ࠄߪቢᚑߐࠇߚᖱႎㅢାᯏེߛߌߢߥߊᖱႎ ㅢାᯏེߩਛ㑆⽷߿ฃേ࡮⵬ഥㇱຠߦ㑐ߒߡ߽ਛ ࿖㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕ߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ߇ᄢ߈ߊ਄᣹ߒߡ߅ࠅޔ 2003 ᐕ߆ࠄ 2005 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡߎࠇࠄߩຠ⋡ߩャ౉ ⿥ㆊ᏷߇ࠊߕ߆ߥ߇ࠄᷫዋߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣߦ᳇ߠߊޕ ߎߩߎߣߪਛ࿖ߩ㔚ሶᯏེ↥ᬺ߇ߔߢߦනߥࠆᄖ ࿖ડᬺߩᦨ⚳⚵┙ၮ࿾ߢߥߊߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔࠃࠅᎹ ਄ߩᎿ⒟ߦ߅޿ߡ߽↢↥ജࠍ㜞߼ߟߟ޽ࠆߎߣࠍ ␜ໂߒߡ޿ࠆޕ  ߥ߅ޔ࿖㓙⊛ߥ㔚ሶᯏེߩ↢↥࡮⽼ᄁࡀ࠶࠻ࡢ ࡯ࠢߪ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߛߌߢቢ⚿ߒߡ޿ࠆࠊߌߢߪߥߊޔ ઁߩ࿾ၞߣ߽ᷓߊㅪ㑐ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ⴫_{3 ߪ޽ߊ߹ߢ} ߽᧲ࠕࠫࠕၞౝߩ⾏ᤃߦභ߼ࠆฦ࿖ߩࠪࠚࠕߢ޽ ࠆߚ߼ޔߎߩ⴫߆ࠄฦ࿖ߩ↢↥⢻ജߩᄌൻࠍᱜ⏕

ߦ⺒ߺߣࠆߎߣߪ㔍ߒ޿ޕߘߎߢ੹ᐲߪ_{BACI ߦ} ߅޿ߡ৻⽾ߒߚ࠺࡯࠲߇ᓧࠄࠇࠆߔߴߡߩ࿖ޘࠍ ኻ⽎ߦ฽߼ޔ⴫_{3 ߣห᭽ߩᚻ㗅ߢ਎⇇ో૕ߩ⾏ᤃ} 㗵ߦභ߼ࠆਥⷐ࿖࡮࿾ၞߩャ಴౉ࠪࠚࠕࠍ⸘▚ߒ ߡߺࠃ߁ޕߘߩ⚿ᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚߩ߇⴫5 ߢ޽ࠆޕ ߎߎߢർ☨ߣߪ☨࿖ޔࠞ࠽࠳ޔࡔࠠࠪࠦࠍᗧ๧ߒ ߡ߅ࠅޔ᰷Ꮊߪ᰷Ꮊห⋖㧔_{European UnionޔEU㧕} ട⋖࿖ߣࡁ࡞࠙ࠚ࡯ޔࠬࠗࠬࠍᗧ๧ߒߡ޿ࠆޕߥ ߅ޔ⴫߇ᾘ㔀ߦߥࠆߎߣࠍㆱߌࠆߚ߼ޔߎߎߢߪ 㖧࿖ߣบḧޔࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞࡮ࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕߣઁߩ᧲ ධࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߩࠪࠚࠕࠍߘࠇߙࠇว▚ߒߡႎ๔ߒ ߡ޿ࠆޕ  ⴫_{5 ߦ߅޿ߡ߹ߕ᳇ߠߊߎߣߪޔኻ਎⇇ߩ⾏ᤃ} ߢߪਛ࿖㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕ߪ_{[A]ᖱႎㅢାᯏེ㧔ᦨ⚳⽷㧕} ߛߌߢߥߊ[B]ᖱႎㅢାᯏེ㧔ਛ㑆⽷㧕ߣ[D]ฃേ࡮ ⵬ഥㇱຠߦ߅޿ߡ߽ߔߢߦャ಴⿥ㆊߦߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔ [C]⢻േㇱຠߩߺߦ߅޿ߡ࿶ୟ⊛ߥャ౉⿥ㆊ߇⛯ ޿ߡ޿ࠆߎߣߢ޽ࠆޕ߹ߚޔ_{2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ} [A][B][D]ߩ޿ߕࠇߦ߅޿ߡ߽ਛ࿖ߩャ಴ࠪࠚࠕ ߇ᕆ᜛ᄢߒߡ߅ࠅޔઁߩ߶ߣࠎߤߩ࿾ၞߩࠪࠚࠕ ߪᷫዋߔࠆ߆ᮮ߫޿ߦߣߤ߹ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ એᄖߢߪർ☨ߦ߅޿ߡ_{2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ[A]߅ࠃ} ߮_{[B]ߩ⚐ャ౉ࠪࠚࠕߩᕆ᜛ᄢ߇↢ߓߡ޿ࠆޕർ☨} ߢߪ_{1994 ᐕߩർ☨⥄↱⾏ᤃදቯ㧔North American}

Free Trade AgreementޔNAFTA㧕✦⚿ߥߤࠍ⢛᥊ߦ ၞౝߩ↢↥Ꮏ⒟ಽᬺ߇ㅴߺޔ৻ᤨ⊛ߦࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯ ࠲ᯏེ߿_{AV ᯏེߩਛ㑆⽷߿ቢᚑຠߩ⾏ᤃ㗵߇ᕆ} Ⴧߒߚ㧔_{Kumakura 2008㧕ޕߒ߆ߒ⴫ 5 ࠍ⷗ࠆ㒢ࠅޔ} 2000 ᐕ೨ᓟࠍႺߦߘࠇ߹ߢർ☨ၞౝߢಽᬺߐࠇ ߡ޿ߚ↢↥Ꮏ⒟߇߹ߣ߼ߡਛ࿖ߦ⒖▤ߐࠇࠆ௑ะ ߇ᒝ߹ߞߡ޿ࠆࠃ߁ߦᕁࠊࠇࠆޕ  ㄭᐕޔਛ࿖એᄖߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖߇ਛ࿖ߦᎿᬺ⵾ ຠߩਛ㑆⽷ࠍャ಴ߒޔਛ࿖ߢ⚵ߺ┙ߡࠄࠇߚᦨ⚳ ⽷߇ർ☨߿᰷Ꮊߦャ಴ߐࠇࠆޟਃⷺ⾏ᤃޠߦࠃࠅޔ ਛ࿖ߣߘࠇએᄖߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߩャ಴߇ߣ߽ߦჇ ടߒߟߠߌࠆߣ੍᷹ߐࠇࠆߎߣ߇޽ࠆ㧔_{Ahearne et} al. 2006㧕ޕߒ߆ߒޔ㔚ᯏߩਛߢ⃻࿷ߢ߽ਛ࿖ߩャ ౉ଐሽᐲ߇ૐਅߒߡ޿ߥ޿ߩߪ _{IC ߥߤዋᢙߩ⢻} േㇱຠߛߌߢ޽ࠅޔߘࠇએᄖߩㇱຠ߿ਛ㑆⽷ߦ㑐 ߒߡߪᕆㅦߦ࿖ౝ⺞㆐₸߇㜞߹ߞߡ޿ࠆޕߎߎߢ ߪ⚕᏷ߩ೙⚂ߦࠃࠅ⹦ㅀߢ߈ߥ޿߇ޔ⢻േㇱຠએ ᄖߩᄙߊߩ㔚ሶᯏེߦ߅޿ߡਛ࿖ߩ↢↥⢻ജ߇ᕆ ㅦߦ㜞߹ߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣߪ⾏ᤃ⛔⸘ߛߌߢߥߊ↢↥ 㗵⛔⸘߆ࠄ߽⏕⹺ߢ߈ࠆ㧔_{Kumakura 2008㧕ޕ}  ⴫_{6 ߪਛ࿖ߩᶏ㑐⛔⸘ࠍ↪޿ߡਛ࿖ߩࠦࡦࡇࡘ} ࡯࠲ᯏེߣਥⷐߥ㔚ሶㇱຠߩ⾏ᤃ㗵ߩផ⒖ࠍ⋥ㄭ ߩ_{2007 ᐕ߹ߢ㓸⸘ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕᏀ஥ߩ[A]⴫} ࠍ⷗ࠆߣಽ߆ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲ᯏེߦ㑐ߒ ߡߪ _{2001 ᤨὐߢᦨ⚳⽷ޔਛ㑆⽷ߣ߽ߦャ಴⿥ㆊ} ߦߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔㄭᐕߢߪ_{(A-1)ߩࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲ᧄ૕} ߩ⚐ャ಴㗵߇ỗჇߒߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚޔߎߎߦߪឝタ ߒߡ޿ߥ޿߇ޔ_{2007 ᐕᤨὐߢ៤Ꮺ㔚⹤ߩᦨ⚳⽷ߪ} ⚂370 ం☨࠼࡞ߩャ಴⿥ㆊߣߥߞߡ߅ࠅޔਛ㑆⽷ ߩ⾏ᤃ෼ᡰ߽ _{2005 ᐕ߆ࠄ㤥ሼߦߥߞߡ޿ࠆޕ⴫} 4[A]ߢߪ 2001㧙2003 ᐕߣ 2003㧙2005 ᐕߩ᧲ࠕࠫ ࠕߩ㔚ᯏߩᦨ⚳⽷⾏ᤃߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߩᄌൻߦኻߔࠆ} ਛ࿖㧔㧗㚅᷼㧕ߩነਈᐲ߇ᱜߦߥߞߡ޿ߚ߇ޔߎ ࠇߪߎߩᤨᦼ߇ਛ࿖ߩਥⷐߥ㔚ሶᯏེߩ⾏ᤃ෼ᡰ ߇ᰴޘߦᄢ᏷ߥャ౉⿥ㆊ߆ࠄャ಴⿥ㆊߦォߓߚᤨ ᦼߦ޽ߚߞߡ޿ߚߚ߼ߢ޽ࠆޕߒ߆ߒߘߩᓟޔਛ ࿖ߩࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲ᯏེ߿៤Ꮺ㔚⹤ޔࠝࡈࠖࠬᯏེ ߩቢᚑຠߩャ಴⿥ㆊ߇ỗჇߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ⠨ᘦߔ ࠆߣޔ⃻࿷ߢߪਛ࿖ߩነਈᐲߪ⽶ߦォߓߡ޿ࠆน ⢻ᕈ߇㜞޿ޕ ᰴߦ⴫_{6[B]ߦ߅޿ߡ㔚ሶㇱຠߩ⾏ᤃ෼ᡰࠍⷰኤ} ߔࠆߣޔ޿ߕࠇߩຠ⋡߽ャ౉⿥ㆊ߇⛮⛯ߒߡ޿ࠆ ߇ޔ⚐ャ౉㗵߇⓭಴ߒߡᄢ߈޿ߩߪ_{(C-2)ߩ IC ߢ} ޽ࠆޕ2007 ᐕᤨὐߢਛ࿖ߩ IC ߩ⚐ャ౉㗵ߪ⚂ 1,049 ం☨࠼࡞ߦ਄ߞߡ߅ࠅޔߎࠇߪࠦࡦࡇࡘ࡯࠲ ߣ៤Ꮺ㔚⹤ᧄ૕ߩ⚐ャ಴㗵ߦ߶߷඘ᢜߔࠆޕ⴫ 4[B]ߢߪ 1990 ᐕઍᧃએ㒠ߩ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ㔚ᯏߩਛ 㑆⽷ߩ_{GL ᜰᢙߦኻߔࠆਛ࿖࡮㚅᷼ߩነਈᐲ߇⽶} ߣ᷹ቯߐࠇߡ޿ߚޕ⴫6 ߦ߅޿ߡ2005 ᐕ߆ࠄ2007 ᐕߦ߆ߌߡ _{IC ߩャ౉⿥ㆊ߇᜛ᄢߔࠆ৻ᣇߢࠦࡦ} ࡇࡘ࡯࠲ᯏེ߿៤Ꮺ㔚⹤ߩਛ㑆⽷ߩャ಴⿥ㆊ߽Ⴧ ടߒߚߎߣࠍ⠨ᘦߔࠆߣޔ⴫_{4[B]ߢⷰኤߒߚ௑ะ}