ȝ ထ๵஖ݷ͈εΐΏοΣϋΈ 3119ාༀ࣭ఱൡႀ஖ݷ͈ζȜΉΞͻϋΈ)3*!

ၯ₹ᄢቇ♿ⷐ㧔ᢎ㙃ቇㇱ㧕╙Ꮞ╙㧝ภ ᐕ

㧙㧙

3119ාༀ࣭ఱൡႀ஖ݷ͈ζȜΉΞͻϋΈ)3*!

ȝထ๵஖ݷ͈εΐΏοΣϋΈ

The 2008 U. S. Presidential Campaign from a Marketing Perspective Part2: Candidates’ Positioning in the Primaries

໹! ႅ! ܮ! ঊ^ɖ!

㧝㧚੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩో૕᭎ᴫ

㧝㧙㧝 ൎᢌ৻ⷩ

㧡ࡩ᦬ߦࠊߚࠆ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߪޔ

2

᦬

6

ᣣ

McCain

౒๺ౄ୥⵬ߩൎ೑ት⸒߆ࠄ㧠ࡩ᦬ࠍ⚻ߡޔ

6

᦬

3

ᣣߩ

Obama

᳃ਥౄ୥⵬ߩൎ೑ት⸒ߢ⚳ੌߒߚޕ

㧨⴫㧝㧪ߪฦᎺߩ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߣౄຬ㓸ળߩ⚿ᨐࠍ

␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ୥⵬ฬߩਅߩᢙሼߪޔฦᎺߢ୥⵬

߇ᓧߚᓧ␿₸ߢ޽ࠆޕ߹ߚ⴫ਛߩ

Type

ߣߪޔ

P

㧔primary,੍஻ㆬ᜼㧕ޔC(caucus, ౄຬ㓸ળ)ߩ೎

ࠍ⴫ߔޕ߹ߚ

Who can vote

ߣߪޔᎺ߅ࠃ߮᡽ౄ

ߦࠃߞߡ੍஻ㆬ᜼࡮ౄຬ㓸ળߦෳടߢ߈ࠆ᦭ᮭ

⠪ߩ⾗ᩰࠍ⴫ߔޕߚߣ߃߫

DIR

ߣ޽ࠆߩߪޔ᦭

ᮭ⠪⊓㍳߇

Democrats, Independents, Republicans

ߩ޿ߕࠇߢ޽ߞߡ߽ෳടߢ߈ࠆߎߣࠍᗧ๧ߔࠆޕ ߹ߚߎߩ৻ⷩ⴫ߪޔ੍஻ㆬ᜼߅ࠃ߮ౄຬ㓸ળ ߇ታᣉߐࠇߚᣣઃ㗅ߢߪߥߊޔ⑺એ㒠ߩ৻⥸ㆬ

᜼ߢ㊀ⷐߥᗧ๧ࠍ߽ߟฦᎺߩౄᵷ⊛௑ะࠍ

2004

ᐕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼⚿ᨐߦၮߠ޿ߡಽ㘃ߒਗߴ ߆߃ߡ޽ࠆޕ߹ߕ

Battle

ߣߪޔࡃ࠻࡞ࠣ࡜࠙ࡦ

࠼Ꮊߔߥࠊߜ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢỗᚢ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆᎺࠍ ᗧ๧ߒޔߎࠇߦಽ㘃ߐࠇࠆ

16

Ꮊߩޟㆬ᜼ੱ

(Electoral Votes, EV)ޠว⸘ߪ189

ੱߢ޽ࠆޕో☨

50

Ꮊߣࡢࠪࡦ࠻ࡦ

DC

ߩㆬ᜼ੱว⸘ߪ

538

ੱߢ

޽ࠆ߆ࠄޔ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢߘߩㆊඨᢙએ਄ߩㆬ᜼ੱ

ߔߥࠊߜ

270

ੱએ਄ࠍ₪ᓧߒߚ୥⵬߇ᰴᦼᄢ⛔

㗔ߦߥࠆޕ

Battleground

Ꮊߩᄙߊߪޔ

2004

ᐕㆬ᜼ߢ

Bush

౒๺ౄ୥⵬ߣ

Kerry

᳃ਥౄ୥⵬ߩᓧ␿₸Ꮕ߇

1

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻એౝߩᎺߢ޽ࠅޔB/R ߩࠃ߁ߦࠬ࡜࠶

ࠪࡘߩᓟࠈߦ௖Ꮕߢൎ೑ߒߚౄ㧔౒๺ౄߪ

Rޔ

᳃ਥౄߪ

D㧕߇␜ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚR1

ߣ

D1

ߪޔ

15

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻એ਄ߩᏅߢ౒๺ౄ߹ߚߪ᳃ਥౄ

߇ൎߞߚޔౄᵷ⊛ߦᡰᜬߩ࿕޿Ꮊߢ޽ࠆޕㆬ᜼

ੱᢙߩว⸘ߪߘࠇߙࠇ

153

ੱߣ

53

ੱߢޔ㗅ᒰߦ

޿ߌ߫౒๺ౄߩᡰᜬၮ⋚ߩᣇ߇ᄢ߈޿ߎߣߦߥ ࠆޕ

R2

ߣ

D2

ߪޔ5 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻߆ࠄ

15

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ꮕޔ

R3

ߣ

D3

ߪ

1

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻એ਄

5

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻એౝߩᏅ ߢൎߞߚߎߣࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ1 ߣ

2

ߦಽ㘃ߐࠇ ࠆᎺߩㆬ᜼ੱᢙࠍว⸘ߔࠆߣޔ౒๺ౄߪ

168ޔ

᳃ਥౄߪ

183

ߢޔᡰᜬၮ⋚ߩᄢ߈ߐߪㅒォߔࠆޕ ߎࠇࠄߩᎺߩ޿ߊߟ߆ߪỗᚢ߇੍ᗐߐࠇߡ߅ࠅޔ

2004

ᐕߦ

10

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ꮕߢൎߞߡ޿ߡ߽

2008

ᐕ ߦൎߡࠆ଻⸽ߪߥ޿ޕ

㧖߭ࠄ߫߿ߒ࡮ߩࠅߎ

ၯ₹ᄢቇᢎ㙃ቇㇱᢎ᝼ޔ᡽ᴦ⊛ࠦࡒࡘ࠾ࠤ࡯࡚ࠪࡦ⎇ⓥ

⴫㧝 ᐕ☨ᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߩ੍஻ㆬ᜼⚿ᨐߣᚢ⇛⊛㊀ὐᎺ

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Type State 08

EV 04

㩷 㩷㩷 㩷 㩷㩷

ࠫض Primary Type

Who can vote

Result % Primary type

who can vote

Result %

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Total EV = 538 Magic No=270 Obama Hillary Edw McCain Huckab Paul Romn Giu Battle Iowa 7 B/R C DIR 38 29 30 C IR 13 34 10 25 3

189 N.H. 4 B/D P DIR 36 39 17 P DIR 37 11 8 32 9

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Michigan 17 B/D P DIR

㬍㩷

55

㬍

P DIR 30 16 6 39 3

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Nevada 5 B/R C D 45 51 4 C R 13 8 14 51 4

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Florida 27 R2 P D 33 50 14 P R 36 13 3 31 15

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Arkansas 6 R2 P DIR 27 69 2 P DIR 20 60 5 13

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

Colorado 9 R2 C D 67 32 1 C R 19 13 8 59

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

Minnesota 10 D3 C DIR 67 32 1 C DIR 22 29 16 42

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

Missouri 11 R2 P DIR 49 48 2 P DIR 33 32 4 29 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

N. Mexico 5 B/R C D 48 49 1 P R 86 14

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

VA 13 R2 P DIR 64 35 1 P DIR 50 41 5 4 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Wisconsin 10 B/D P DIR 58 41 1 P DIR 55 37 5 2 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Ohio 20 R3 P DI 44 54 2 P DIR 60 31 5 0 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷

PA 21 D3 P D 45 55

㩷

P R 73 11 16

㩷

Oregon 7 D2 P D 59 41

㩷

P R 83 13

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

N. Carolina 15 R2 P DI 56 42

㩷

P RI 74 12 8

㩷

R1 S. Carolina 8 R1 P DIR 55 27 18 P DIR 33 30 4 15 2

153 Alabama 9 R1 P DIR 56 42 1 P DIR 37 41 3 18 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Alaska 3 R1 C D 74 25

㬍

C R 16 22 17 44

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

Georgia 15 R1 P DIR 66 31 2 P DIR 32 34 3 30 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Idaho 4 R1 C DIR 80 17 3 P DIR 70 24

㩷

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Kansas 6 R1 C D 74 26 C R 24 60 11 3 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷

N. Dakota 3 R1 C DIR 61 37 1 C DIR 23 20 21 36

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

Oklahoma 7 R1 P D 31 55 10 P R 37 33 3 25 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Tennesse 11 R1 P DIR 41 54 4 P DIR 31 34 6 24 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Utah 5 R1 P DI 57 38 3 P R 5 1 3 90

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

Lousiana 9 R1 P D 57 36 3 P R 42 43 5 6 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Nebraska 5 R1 C D 68 32

㬍

C R 7

᦬

12

ᣣ 㩷

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Texas 34 R1 P DIR 47 51 1 P DIR 51 38 5 0 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷

C

㩷

56 44 0

㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Wyoming 3 R1 C D 61 38 C R 0 0 0 67 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Mississippi 6 R1 P DIR 61 37 1 P DIR 79 13 4 2 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Indiana 11 R1 P DIR 49 51 P DIR 78 10 8 5

㩷

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Kentucky 8 R1 P D 30 65 2 P R 72 8 7 5 2

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Montana 3 R1 P DIR 56 41 C R 22 15 25 38

㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷

S. Dakota 3 R1 P D 55 45 P R 70 7 17 3

㩷

R2 Arizona 10 R2 P D 42 51 5 P R 47 9 4 34 3

15 W. Virginia 5 R2 P DI 26 67 7 P R 76 10 5 4 2

㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷

cnvt R 1 52

㩷

47

㩷

D2 California 55 D2 P DI 42 52 4 P R 42 11 4 33 5

130 Connecticut 7 D2 P D 51 4 1 P R 52 7 4 33 2

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Delaware 3 D2 P D 53 42 3 P R 45 15 4 33 2

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Illinois 21 D2 P DIR 64 33 2 P DIR 47 17 5 29 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

New Jersey 15 D2 P DI 44 54 1 P RI 55 8 5 28 3

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Washington 11 D2 C DIR 68 31 0 C DIR 26 24 22 15 㬍㩷

㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷㩷㩷㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷 㩷

P DIR 49 22 7 20 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Maine 4 D2 C D 59 40

㬍

C R 21 6 18 52 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Maryland 10 D2 P D 60 37 1 P R 55 29 6 6 1

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Hawaii 4 D2 C D 76 24 0 C R not available

D1 MA 12 D1 P DI 41 56 2 P RI 41 4 3 51 1 53 New York 31 D1 P D 40 57 1 P R 51 11 6 28 3

㩷㩷㩷㩷

DC 3 D1 P D 75 24 0 P R 68 17 8 6 2

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Rhode Island 4 D1 P DI 40 59 0 P RI 65 22 7 0 0

㩷㩷㩷㩷

Vermont 3 D1 P

㩷

59 39 1 P DIR 72 14 7 5 2

538

ᵈ䋱㩷

2004

ᐕฦᎺ৻⥸ㆬ᜼⚿ᨐ㩷

R1=Bush +15 point and more R2=Bush +5 to +15䋨5 point

䉕฽䉃䋩 R3=Bush less than +5,

D1=Kerry +15 and more D2=Kerry +5 to +15 D3=Kerry less than +5 B= less than 1 point difference, /Winning party

ᵈ䋲㩷 䋰䋸EV 䈲䇮11 ᦬

4

ᣣ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ᛩ␿䈮䈍䈔䉎ฦᎺ䈱ㆬ᜼ੱᢙ(Electoral Votes, EV)䇯Maine, Nebraska, Washington DC એᄖ䈲䇮

Winner-Takes-All

䈮䉋䉎ൎ⠪ోข䉍ဳ䇯2008 ᐕ✚ㆬ᜼ੱᢙ䈲

538

ฬ䇮䈉䈤

270

ੱ䉕ข䈦䈢୥⵬䈏ᄢ⛔㗔䈮䈭䉎䇯

㧙㧙 㧝㧙㧞 ੍஻ㆬ᜼ዷ㐿ߩᗧᄖᕈ੍̆஻ㆬ᜼೨

SWOT

ߩᬌ⸽

New York Times

⚕ࠦ࡜ࡓ࠾ࠬ࠻

Leibovich

ߦࠃ ࠇ߫ޔߎߩ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢޟㆬ᜼ߩ޿ࠊࠁࠆᏱ⼂

(conventional wisdom)ߩ㑆㆑޿ᐲߪᣂ⸥㍳ޠߣ޿

߁

¹

ޕ⃻⡯ਇ࿷ߩᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ผ਄߹ࠇߥ᧦ઙߦ ട߃ޔਥജႎ㆏ᯏ㑐߿ኾ㐷ኅߩߺߥࠄߕޔౄᵷ

⊛ࡉࡠࠟ࡯߿ࠝࡦ࡜ࠗࡦᏒ᳃ᵴേኅ߇ㆬ᜼⺰⼏

ߩ㊀ⷐߥࠕࠢ࠲࡯ߣߒߡෳ౉ߔࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡޔ ㆬ᜼ࠍ߼ߋࠆᏱ⼂߿౒ㅢߩ್ᢿၮḰޔዷ㐿ߩ⺒

ߺ߇ㅢ↪ߒߥߊߥࠆޕ

ߎߎߢߪ߹ߕ

Leibovich

ߩࠦ࡜ࡓࠍ߽ߣߦޔ ᓐߩ޿߁̌Ᏹ⼂̍ߦᓥߞߚ╩⠪ߩ੍஻ㆬ᜼೨

SWOT

ಽᨆ

²

ߩᱜ⺋ࠍᬌ⸽ߒߡߺߚ޿ޕ

⾗㊄ജߪ᳿ቯ⊛ⷐ࿃ߢߪߥ߆ߞߚ

౒๺ౄߢߪޔᤓᐕ⾗㊄࠯ࡠ⁁ᘒߛߞߚ

McCain

ޔ

੹ᐕߩ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢ⾗㊄ਇ⿷ߛߞߚ

Huckabee

߇ ஜ㑵ߔࠆ৻ᣇޔ

4200

ਁ࠼࡞߽ߩ⑳⾌ࠍᛩߓߚ⾗

㊄Ảᴛ ߥ

Romney

߇ޔ੐ ታ਄ߩ࿾⋚ߢ޽ࠆ

Massachusetts

㧔ర⍮੐㧕ޔ

Michigan

㧔ῳ߇ర⍮੐㧕ޔ

Utah

㧔ࡕ࡞ࡕࡦᢎᓤ߇ᄙ޿㧕ࠍ㒰ߌ߫ోᢌߒߚޕ ᳃ਥౄߢߪࠝࡦ࡜ࠗࡦ⾗㊄㓸߼ߢ࡝࡯࠼ߔࠆ

Obama

߇

Hillary

ߩ⾗Ḯࠍᨗᷢߐߖߡ޿ߞߚߎߣ ߪ⏕߆ߛ߇ޔ

Texas

߿

Ohio

ߩ੍஻ㆬߢᛩ౉ߒߚ࠹

࡟ࡆᐢ๔⾌ߘࠇߙࠇ1,000

ਁ࠼࡞ޔ

530

ਁ࠼࡞ߪޔ

Hillaryఝ൓ࠍⷒߔߣߎࠈ߹ߢߪⴕ߆ߥ߆ߞߚޕ

୥⵬ߩ⾗⾰ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⺒ߺ㆑޿

߹ߕ

Obama

ߩޟ⚻㛎ਇ⿷ޠޔኻ┙㒯༡߆ࠄߩ

᡹᠄ߦኻߔࠆޟᛂߚࠇᒙߐޠߣ޿߁ᒙὐߩផ᷹

ߪⵣಾࠄࠇߚޕ

2007

ᐕਛ

Obama

ߪޔᒙ⣶ߢ⤪∛ߥޟࠝࡃࡦ

ࡆ(Obambi)ޠ㧔Chicago Tribune

⚕㧕ޔ᡹᠄วᚢߦ

⠴߃ࠆ࠲ࡈߐ߇ߥ޿ߣ޿߁೨⹏್ߛߞߚޕᒙ౰

46ᱦޔ࿖᡽⚻㛎ߦਲߒ޿ᓐߩ಴㚍ߩ⁓޿ߪޔ㧠

ᐕᓟߥ޿ߒ㧤ᐕᓟߩᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߦ಴㚍ߔࠆ࿾㚔 ࠄߒߣ޿߁ᙘ᷹߽޽ߞߚޕታ㓙ߦߪޔ

Hillary㒯 ༡߿౒๺ౄ߆ࠄߩၫᜓߥ᡹᠄ࠍޟᤨઍㆃࠇߩኻ

᳿ဳ᡽ᴦࠬ࠲ࠗ࡞ޠߣ߆ࠊߒޔᅢᗧ⊛ߥႎ㆏⺰

⺞߽ᚻવߞߡޔ⚻㛎ࠃࠅᄌ㕟ߩᣛᚻߣߒߡߩࠗ

ࡔ࡯ࠫࠍ቞ࠅ߈ߞߚޕ

৻ᣇ

Hillary

ߩޟᅢᗵᐲ߇ૐ޿ޠޟ⸘▚㜞޿ޠ

ޟ಄ߚ޿ޠߣ޿߁ࠗࡔ࡯ࠫߪޔㇱಽ⊛ߦߪ㒯༡ ߩᚢ⇛⊛ኻ᛫ᚻᲑߦࠃߞߡࠞࡃ࡯ߐࠇߚޕ ߹ߕ

Iowa

Ꮊߩ੍ᗐએ਄ߩᄢᢌޔ

ᚻ෩ߒ޿ႎ㆏

⺰⺞ߦޔ

New Hampshire

੍஻ㆬ᜼⋥೨ߩᡰᜬ⠪

㓸ળߢ

Hillary

߇ฯ㔺ߒߚߟࠄߐޔ

ᕁࠊߕᵹߒߚ

ᶡߪޔᚢ⇛⊛⸘▚ߩ↥‛ߣ಄╉⊛ߦߣࠄ߃ࠆႎ

㆏߇ዋߥߊߥ߆ߞߚߦ᜔߽ࠊࠄߕޔ⋥೨ߩ਎⺰

⺞ᩏ੍᷹ࠍⵣಾࠆNew Hampshire

ᄢൎߦߟߥ߇ ߞߚޕ․ߦޔ಄╉⊛ߥႎ㆏ࠍޟ␠ળㅴ಴ߔࠆᅚ

ᕈ߳ߩ࠳ࡉ࡞ࠬ࠲ࡦ࠳࡯࠼ޠߣߣࠄ߃ࠆᅚᕈ␿

ߩᄢ㊂േຬࠍ߽ߚࠄߒߚน⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆޕ

߹ߚ

Hillary

ߩ⥄Ꮖ㒐ⴡ⊛ߢޔ࿕ߊ಄ߚ޿઀੐

ੱ㑆ߩࠗࡔ࡯ࠫߪޔᧄੱߩᗧᄖߥ࡙࡯ࡕࠕߦࠃ ߞߡ߽✭๺ߐࠇߚޕNew Hampshire

⋥೨ߩ࠺ࠖ

ࡌ࡯࠻ߢޟߥߗߘࠎߥߦህࠊࠇࠆߩ߆ޠߣ዆ߨ

ࠄࠇޔ ޟ்ߟ޿ߜ߾߁ޠߣ╵߃ޔ߹ߚੱ᳇ࠦࡔ࠺

ࠖ⇟⚵ߩSaturday Night Live

߿

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

ߢߪޔᧄੱߩ̌ߘߞߊࠅߐࠎ̍

ߣ⥄⯦⊛ߥដߌว޿ߢⷞ⡬⠪ࠍᴣ߆ߖࠆߥߤޔ

਎⺰⺞ᩏߩᡰᜬ₸〡ߨ਄߇ࠅߦ⽸₂ߒߚޕ

㒯༡⚵❱ߩ⎕✋

Hillary

ߩ⚵❱ߣᚢ⇛࠴࡯ࡓߪᒰೋޔᚢ⇛⊛⢻

ജߣታ❣ߦఝࠇߚ஥ㄭߩ⚵❱ജ߇᦭೑ߣߺࠄࠇ ߚ߇ޔ੍஻ㆬ᜼߇㐳ᒁߊߦߟࠇޔ⚵❱▤ℂߩੂ

ࠇ߿ᚢ⇛ࡒࠬ߇⋡┙ߟࠃ߁ߦߥࠆ

³

ޕ

Hillary

ߪޔLincoln ౝ㑑߇̌Team of Rivals̍ޔ ߔߥࠊߜᗧ⷗߿⢛᥊ߩ⇣ߥࠆ஥ㄭߩ⺰੎ࠍㅢߓ ߡᱜߒ޿〝✢ࠍዉ߈಴ߒߚߎߣࠍ␜ߒߚᱧผኅ

Goodwin

ߩ⪺ㅀߦᗵ㌏ࠍฃߌޔ⇣ಽሶⴣ⓭ߩ޿

ࠊ߫̌ൻቇ⊛วᚑജ(chemistry)̍ࠍାߓߡ޿ߚޕ ߒ߆ߒታ㓙ߦߪޔ

ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦࡑࡀࠫࡖ࡯Doyle

ߣਥᏨᚢ⇛ᜂᒰ

Mark Penn

ߩ㑆ߩ⚵❱ㆇ༡߿⾗

Ḯ㈩ಽࠍ߼ߋࠆਇද๺㖸ߪᒰೋ߆ࠄ᳓㕙ਅߢ⛯

޿ߡ߅ࠅޔ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩ㊀ⷐߥጊ႐ߢߩࡑࡀࠫࡖ

࡯੤ઍߣ޿߁⥌๮⊛ߥ⚵❱ᷙੂࠍ᜗޿ߚޕߒ߆

߽

Hillary

ߩㅢ໡᡽╷ߩ㕖৻⽾ᕈޔౕ૕⊛ߦߪ

NAFTA ർ☨⾏ᤃදቯߦߟ޿ߡ⾥ᚑ߆ࠄ෻ኻ߳

ߩォ឵ߣ޿߁᡽╷ᄌᦝࠍࠞࡃ࡯ߔࠆߚ߼ߦޔ

Penn

߇ኻࠞ࠽࠳ⵣᎿ૞ࠍⴕߞߚ੐ታ߇ႎ㆏ߐ ࠇޔ

࠴࡯ࡈᚢ⇛ኅߩPenn

߽ㄉછߦㅊ޿ㄟ߹ࠇࠆ ߥߤޔ⚵❱ߩᯏ⢻ਇోߪ৻ጀ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚޕ ട߃ߡޔ

㒯༡ߩ㊀ᄢߥᚢ⇛ࡒࠬ߇㊀ߥߞߚ⁴

ޕ

╙৻ߦޔNew Hampshire

ߥߤ੍஻ㆬ᜼Ꮊࠍ㊀ⷞ ߔࠆ޽߹ࠅޔ

Iowa

ߪߓ߼ౄຬ㓸ળᎺߦะߌߚᚢ

⇛ࠍᰳ޿ߚߎߣ⁵

ޔ

╙ੑߦ2

᦬

5

ᣣ

Super Tuesday

ߦൎ⽶ࠍ߆ߌࠆ޽߹ࠅޔߘࠇએ㒠ߩᚢ⇛ዷᦸ߇ ߥ߆ߞߚߎߣޔ╙ਃߦ৻ం࠼࡞એ਄߽ߩᏂ㗵⾗

㊄ࠍ૶޿ߥ߇ࠄޔ700 ਁ࠼࡞ࠍᛩߓߚ

South Carolina

Ꮊߢ

29

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻ߩᄢᏅߢᢌർߔࠆߥߤޔ

⾗㊄ߩല₸⊛ᡰ಴ߦᄬᢌߒߚߎߣߢ޽ࠆޕ ߐࠄߦᄦ

Bill Clinton

ޔᄤᚽ⊛ߥㆬ᜼ᚢ⇛ኅߢ ߒ߆߽రᄢ⛔㗔ߣߒߡ㤥ੱጀߥߤ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ⠪

ߩੱ᳇߇㜞޿ᓐߩሽ࿷ߪᒰೋ

Hillary

ߩᦨᒝߩ

ࠞ࡯࠼ߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇߚޕߒ߆ߒᓐ߇ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦ

߳ߩ㑐ਈࠍᒝ߼ࠆߦߟࠇޔ㒯༡ߦࠃࠆ೙ᓮਇ⢻

ߦߥߞߡ޿ߊޕ߹ߚ

Bill

ߪ

Hillaryઍℂੱߣߒߡ

౏ߩ႐ߢᔕេߔࠆ㓙ߦޔ⥌๮⊛ߥࡒࠬࠍ૗ᐲ߽

‽ߒߚޕ․ߦNorth Carolina

ߥߤධㇱߢ

Obama

୥⵬ߣߩ㆑޿ࠍᒝ⺞ߔࠆ޽߹ࠅ㤥ੱ␿ߩ㔌෻ࠍ

᜗߈ޔౄᜰዉㇱߩᔶࠅࠍ⾈ߞߚޕSouth Carolina

એ㒠ߪ⴫⥰บߦ಴ߥߊߥࠅޔ

ઍࠊߞߡᆷChelsea

߇ᔕេߦ┙ߞߚޕ

౒๺ౄߢߪޔ

McCain㒯༡ߩ⚵❱ജߣᯏേᕈ߇

೑ὐߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇߡ޿ߚޕታ㓙ޔᢙޘߩ㔍㑐ࠍ౒

ߦਸ਼ࠅ⿧߃ޔᄖㇱ߆ࠄߩ᡹᠄ߦ߽߭ࠆ߹ߥ޿ᔘ ታߥ৻ᨎጤߩޟᶏ⾚⦁ޠ

⁶

ߦߚߣ߃ࠄࠇࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ

2000

ᐕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ᒰᤨ߆ࠄߩ஥ㄭ

Rick Davis

߿

౒๺ౄో࿖ᆔຬળߩᚢ⇛ࡉ࡟ࠗࡦ

Charlie Black

ࠍਛᔃߦޔ᥉ㅢߢ޽ࠇ߫⚵❱፣უࠍ᜗߈߆ߨߥ

޿㔍㗴̆̆2007 ᐕਛߩ⾗㊄ਇ⿷ޔᡰᜬ₸ૐㅅޔ

ᐞᐲ߽ᶋ਄ߔࠆࡠࡆࠗࠬ࠻ߣߩ㑐ଥޔਥⷐ᡽╷

ࠕ࠼ࡃࠗࠩ࡯߿ᐢ๔ᚢ⇛ኅ

McKinnon

ߩㄉછߥ

ߤ̆̆ࠍਸ਼ࠅ⿧߃ߚޕMcCain㒯༡ߢߪ৻⥸ㆬ᜼

ߦะߌߡ

Bush

ߩ

2004

ᐕㆬ᜼ߩ⾗㊄㓸߼⽿છ⠪

Weaver

ޔ

ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦࡑࡀࠫࡖ࡯ߩNelson

ࠄࠍ

੤ઍߐߖޔᄡߒ޿ᢙߩ᡽╷ࠕ࠼ࡃࠗࠩ࡯ࠍ᧤ߨ

ࠆ⚵❱ᒁ߈✦߼ࠍ࿑ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ

ᡰᜬጀߩ⺒ߺ㆑޿

Obama

߇ޟ㤥ੱޠߢ޽ࠆߎߣߪޔ੍஻ㆬ᜼೨

ߩ

SWOT

ߢߪ̌ࡢࠗ࡞࠼ࠞ࡯࠼̍ޔߔߥࠊߜ೑

ὐߦ߽ᰳὐߦ߽ォൻߒ߁ࠆⷐ࿃ߛߞߚޕታ㓙ߦ

ߪޔ

㤥ੱ␿ߩᡰᜬߩὐߢᄢ߈ߥ೑ὐߣߥࠆ৻ᣇޔ

⊕ੱጀߣߊߦ㜞㦂ᅚᕈ߿ഭ௛⠪㓏ጀޔࡑࠗࡁ࡝

࠹ࠖߩ೑ኂኻ┙߇޽ࠆ Hispanicޔߐࠄߦ৻⥸ㆬ

᜼ߢߪ౒๺ౄ଻቞ᵷߦߟ޿ߡޔᓐߩੱ⒳߇ߤߩ ࠃ߁ߦᓇ㗀ߔࠆ߆ߪᧂ⍮ᢙߢ޽ࠆޕ㤥ੱ␿ߩേ

ຬߪޔㆊ෰ߩㆬ᜼ታ❣߆ࠄ㤥ੱጀᡰᜬࠍᒰὼⷞ

ߒߡ޿ߚ

Hillary㒯༡ߦߣߞߡޔධㇱ߿ㇺᏒㇱߢ

ߩ㓸␿ߩ⸘▚ࠍᄢ߈ߊ⁅ࠊߖࠆᛂ᠄ߣߥߞߚޕ

Obama

߇ޟ⧯޿ጀޠߣߊߦޟ࡝ࡌ࡜࡞ߥᵴേ

ኅጀޠߦᒝ޿ߎߣߪޔᒰೋ߆ࠄ੍ᗐߐࠇߡ޿ߚޕ ታ㓙ߦߪޔ

Hillary㒯༡ߣߩ✕ㄼᗵ޽ࠆ┹੎߽ᚻ વߞߡޔ੍ᗐએ਄ߩẜ࿷⊛ߥ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬጀߩជ

ࠅ⿠ߎߒߦᚑഞߒߚޕ

3

᦬

4

ᣣએ㒠ޔ

5

᦬

6

ᣣߩ

North Carolina߅ࠃ߮Indiana

Ꮊ੍஻ㆬ᜼߹ߢߩ7 Ꮊߢޔᣂⷙߦ᳃ਥౄ⊓㍳ߒߚ᦭ᮭ⠪ߪ

100

ਁੱ

ࠍ⿧߃ޔߎߩ

2

Ꮊߛߌߢ߽

2004

ᐕ੍஻ㆬ᜼ᤨߩ ᣂⷙ⊓㍳⠪ߩ㧟୚߽ߩ⊓㍳⠪ᢙࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚ

⁷

ޕ ᓐࠄߪ᣿ࠄ߆ߦౄᵷ⊛ߥᵴേኅጀߣ޿߁ࠃࠅ߽ޔ

߹ߞߚߊᣂߒߊ᡽ᴦߦ㑐ࠊࠆੱޘߢ޽ࠅޔߎߩ ᄙߊߪ⧯޿ጀߢ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߪ

৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߣ㆑ߞߡޔਛ㆏ጀ߿᡽ᴦ⊛ߦᧂ⚵❱ߩ

㧙㧙

⧯޿ጀߪ࠲࡯ࠥ࠶࠻ߦߥࠄߥ޿ߣ޿߁ㅢᔨߪޔ

߹ߐߦᓐࠄࠍขࠅㄟ߻ߎߣߢ̌ౄᧄᵹߩ୥⵬̍

ߦ┹ࠅൎߞߚMcCain ߣ

Obama

ߩൎ೑ߦࠃߞߡ

ⷒߐࠇߚޕ

৻ᣇ౒๺ౄߢߪޔMcCain ߩޟਛ㆏〝✢ޠޔߣ ߊߦ⒖᳃᡽╷߿ቬᢎฝᵷᛕ್߇ࡀ࠶ࠢߦߥࠆߣ

⠨߃ࠄࠇߚޕ

ታ㓙ޔ

McCain

߇⒖᳃ᡷ㕟ߢ਄㒮᳃ਥౄߣᅷද

ߒߚߎߣߪ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ⠪ߩᄢ߈ߥᔶࠅࠍൎߞߚ ߎߣߪ੐ታߛߞߚ߇ޔ୥⵬ߦߣߞߡᐘ޿ߥߎߣ ߦޔߎߩ⒖᳃໧㗴ߪ

2007

ᐕᓟඨߦߪࠗ࡜ࠢ߿⚻

ᷣߦᲧߴߡᓇ߇⭯޿੎ὐߣߥߞߡ޿ߚޕ߹ߚቬ ᢎฝᵷ߽਎ઍ੤ઍ߇ㅴߺޔ੍஻ㆬ᜼੎ὐߣߒߡ ଔ୯໧㗴߇㊀ⷞߐࠇߥ߆ߞߚߎߣ߇McCain

ߦ

ᐘ޿ߒߚޕ৻ᣇޔ⚻ᷣ଻቞ߣ␠ળଔ୯଻቞ߩ⛔

วᓎ߇ᦼᓙߐࠇߚฝᵷ୥⵬

Huckabee

߽ޔ᡽╷⊛

᳿߼ᚻࠍᰳ޿ߚޕ

ㆬ᜼ᣣ⒟ߩᓇ㗀

੍஻ㆬ᜼ᣣ⒟߇଀ᐕߦߥߊ೨ୟߒ㓸ਛဳߢ޽

ࠆߚ߼ߦޔߔߢߦචಽߥ⾗㊄ࠍ߽ߜޔ߹ߚೋ⋚

ᚢߩ

Iowa

߿

New Hampshire

ߢൎߞߚ൓޿ߩ޽

ࠆ୥⵬߇ൎߜㅴ߻ߣ੍ᗐߐࠇߡ޿ߚޕ

ޟ

Iowa

ߢൎߚߥ޿ߣ⽶ߌࠆޠߣ޿߁␹⹤ߪޔ

2004

ᐕ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢޔ

Iowa

ߦో♖ജࠍᛩ౉

ߒൎ೑ߒߚ

John Kerry

߇ޔߘߩ૛൓ߢ࠼ࡒࡁୟ ߒߩࠃ߁ߦฦᎺࠍㅪⷓޔౄ୥⵬ᜰฬࠍ₪ᓧߒߚ ߎߣ߆ࠄ૞ࠄࠇߚޕObama ߩ

Iowa ࿶ൎߪޔ

Hillary

ߩ࡜ࠗࡃ࡞ߣߒߡᱜᒰߦ⹺⍮ߐࠇࠆലᨐ

ߪ޽ߞߚ߇ޔߘߩᓟ

New Hampshire

ߢߪ

Hillary

߇ൎߟߥߤޔએᓟߩ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߪࠪ࡯࠰࡯ࠥ࡯ࡓ ߣߥߞߚޕ߹ߚ౒๺ౄ߽ޔIowa ൎ⠪

Huckabee

ߩ൓޿ߪᰴߩ

New Hampshire

ൎ⠪ߩ

McCain

ߦ ࠃߞߡ⛘ߚࠇߚޕ

߹ߚൎᢌ߇⺒߼ߥ޿㐳ᦼൻߔࠆㆬ᜼ᚢߢႎ㆏

ᯏ㑐ߪ∋ഭࠍߦߓ߹ߖߚ߇ޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ߪߣߊߦ᳃

ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼߳ߩ㑐ᔃ߇㜞ߊޔߪߓ߼ߡᛩ␿ߔ

ࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩᄢ㊂േຬߥߤޔ߆ߥࠅߩᎺߢ᦭ᮭ⠪

ᛩ␿₸߇⸥㍳⎕ࠅߦ਄᣹ߒߚޕߚߣ߃߫ޔ

Missouri

Ꮊ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩᛩ␿⠪ߪ

4

ᐕ೨ߩ

53

ਁੱ߆ࠄ

78

ਁੱ߳ߣ

47㧑߽Ⴧ߃ޔHillary

߇ ൎߞߚ

ArizonaޔMassachusettsޔNew Jersey

ߢ߽

ߘࠇߙࠇ31㧑ޔ

48㧑ޔ69%߽ߩჇട₸ࠍ␜ߒߚޕ

ੑᩴ࿁ᢙ߽ⴕࠊࠇߚ୥⵬⸛⺰ળ߿᡽ᴦ࠻࡯ࠢࠪ

࡚࡯ߩ࠹࡟ࡆⷞ⡬₸߽㕖Ᏹߦ㜞߆ߞߚޕ

৻ᣇ

Leibovich

ߦࠃࠆߣޔᏱ⼂߇ᱜߒ߆ߞߚ

ὐޔ߹ߛ⚿⺰߇಴ߡ޿ߥ޿ὐ߽޽ࠆޕ

Ᏹ⼂߇ᱜߒ߆ߞߚ㗄⋡ߢ⥝๧ᷓ޿ߩߪޔ

(1) Hillary

ߪ◲නߦ⽶ߌߥ޿(resilient)ޔ(2) Obama ߩṶ⺑ജߪఝࠇߡ޿ࠆޔ

(3) Giuliani

ߩ

Florida

ᚢ

⇛

㧔ᄢᎺ

Florida

ߦ⾗Ḯࠍᛩ౉ߒޔߘࠇએ೨ߦ੍

஻ㆬ᜼ࠍⴕ߁Ꮊࠍ੐ታ਄ήⷞߔࠆ㧕ߪᄬᢌߢ޽

ࠆޔ

(4) 2008

ᐕㆬ᜼ߪᱧผ⊛ߥㆬ᜼ߦߥࠆޔߥ

ߤߢ޽ࠆޕ

੹ᓟߩᬌ⸽ߦᓙߟὐߪޔ

(1) McCain

ߩㆇߪࠗ

࡜ࠢᖱ൓ᰴ╙ޔ(2) McCain ߇ᜰฬ୥⵬ߦߥࠇ߫

ᧄㆬ᜼ᛩ␿ᣣߦ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ⠪ߪᛩ␿ࠍ᫈ᮭߔࠆޔ

(3) McCain

ߪᐕ㦂ߩ⧯޿ޔ߅ߘࠄߊ⍮੐ࠍ೽ᄢ

⛔㗔୥⵬ߦㆬ߱ޔ

(4) McCain

ߪ㜞㦂ߔ߉ࠆޔ

(5) Obama

ߪ⧯ߔ߉ࠆޔ(6) Obama ߣ

Hillary

ߪᱜ೽

ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ࠦࡦࡆࠍ⚵߹ߥ޿ޔ

(7) 2008

ᐕㆬ᜼

ߪޟᄌ㕟ޠㆬ᜼ߦߥࠆޔ(8) 2008 ᐕㆬ᜼ߪޟ⚻

ᷣޠㆬ᜼ߦߥࠆޔ(9) 2008

ᐕㆬ᜼ߪޟ᳃ਥౄߩ ᐕޠߦߥࠆޕߎࠇࠄߩᏱ⼂߇ㅢ↪ߔࠆ߆ߤ߁߆ޔ 㧠ࡩ᦬ᓟߦߪ╵߃߇಴ߡ޿ࠆޕ

㧞 ᐕ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ጀ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖ

ࡦࠣ

㧞㧙㧝 ࠕࠗ࠺ࡦ࠹ࠖ࠹ࠖࡐ࡝࠹ࠖࠢࠬ̆̆୥

⵬ᡰᜬߩጀ೎․ᓽ

੹࿁ߩ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩࠠࠗ࠲࡯ࡓߪޟࠕࠗ࠺ࡦ࠹

ࠖ࠹ࠖࡐ࡝࠹ࠖࠢࠬޠߔߥࠊߜੱ⒳ޔᕈ೎ޔᐕ 㦂ޔධㇱ಴りޔഭ௛⠪㓏ጀ಴りߥߤޔ୥⵬ߩ․

ቯߩዻᕈ․ᓽߣᡰᜬጀߩ㑐ࠊࠅߦ޽ࠆޕ⃻ઍ☨

࿖ㆬ᜼ߢߪޔ̌Demographics is a destiny̍㧔ੱญ

⛔⸘ቇ⊛ዻᕈߢᛩ␿ⴕേ߇᳿߹ࠆ㧕ߪ⭯ࠇߟߟ

޽ࠆߣ޿ࠊࠇࠆ߇ޔߘࠇߪㆊ෰ߣߩ⋧ኻ⊛Ყセ ߩ໧㗴ߢ޽ࠅޔᡰᜬ⠪ߪ⥄ಽߣૃߚ୥⵬ࠍᅢ߻

௑ะߪุቯߢ߈ߥ޿ޕ

ߣߪ޿߃ޔ୥⵬߇ᚢ⇛⊛ߦ․ቯߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ጀߦ ะߌߡᅚᕈ߿㤥ੱߢ޽ࠆߎߣࠍᄁࠅ‛ߦߔࠆߣ

޿߁ࠃࠅ߽ޔߘࠇࠄߩᡰᜬጀߩᦼᓙߦᔕ߃ߟߟ

߽ޔዻᕈࠍ⿥߃ߚᐢ▸ߥᡰᜬጀߦ߽⸷᳞น⢻ߥ ࠃ߁ߦᓸᅱߥࡃ࡜ࡦࠬࠍߣࠆߎߣ߇ᄙ޿ޕ

Hillary

ߪޟᲣޠޟᆷޠޟᅚᕈߩ␠ળㅴ಴ࠍᅹߍࠆ

ࠟ࡜ࠬߩᄤ੗ࠍუߔޠߣ޿ߞߚᅚᕈะߌࡔ࠶࠮

࡯ࠫߦട߃ޔᐼ᳃߿␠ળ⊛ᒙ⠪ߩ㕙ୟࠍߺࠆᲣ

ᕈ⊛ߥ᡽ᴦߩ஥㕙ߣޔߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ⹜✵ࠍ߳ߚታ

❣ޔജᒝߊ࠲ࡈߥ↵ᕈ⊛ᕈᩰࠍᒝ⺞ߔࠆߣ޿߁ 㓽㓶ਔ㕙૞ᚢࠍⴕߞߚޕ৻ᣇObama

ߪᡰᜬጀࠍ ಽᢿߒ߆ߨߥ޿ੱ⒳⊛ࠕࡇ࡯࡞ࠍㆱߌޔ߻ߒࠈ

Bush

᡽ᮭߣᣥ᧪ߩኻ᳿ဳ᡽ᴦߦਇḩࠍ߽ߟ⧯

޿ጀ߿ㅴᱠᵷߩ⚿㓸ࠍ⁓ߞߡޔᄌ㕟ߣ⚿᧤ߩࡔ

࠶࠮࡯ࠫࠍ೨㕙ߦ಴ߒߚޕ

ߎ߁ߒߚ୥⵬ߩᚢ⇛ߪᚑഞߒߚߛࠈ߁߆ޕߎ ߎߢߪ߹ߕޔ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼

39

Ꮊޔ౒๺ౄ

29

Ꮊߢታᣉߐࠇߚޟႎ㆏ᯏ㑐౒ห಴ญ⺞ᩏ(the

National Election Pool)ޠߩ⚿ᨐ߆ࠄޔฦౄ୥⵬ߩᡰ

ᜬጀߩ․ᓽࠍో૕⊛ߦୄ⍑ߒߡߺߚ޿㧨⴫㧞㧪ޕ ߎߩ⚿ᨐߪޔ

Obama

ޔ

McCainਔ୥⵬ߩ੍஻ㆬ

᜼ߩਛᔃ⊛ᡰᜬጀߛߌߢߥߊޔ⑺ߩ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢ ൎߟߚ߼ߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ጀ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣᚢ⇛ޔߔߥ ࠊߜฦጀࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖߡㆊඨᢙߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩㅪว ࠍ᭴▽ߔࠆߦ޽ߚߞߡޔߤߩጀࠍ㊀ⷞߒߡᡰᜬ ࠍ₪ᓧߒߥߌࠇ߫ߥࠄߥ޿߆ޔ߹ߚਔ୥⵬ߩਥ ᚢ႐ߣߥࠆਛᔃ⊛ᡰᜬጀ߇⺕߆ࠍ␜ໂߔࠆ߆ࠄ ߢ޽ࠆޕ

᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼̆̆ᡰᜬጀߩಽᢿ

᳃ਥౄ୥⵬

Hillary

ߣ

Obama

ߪߤߜࠄ߇ᜰฬ

୥⵬ߦߥߞߡ߽ޔ☨࿖᡽ᴦผ਄ೋߩታ⾰⊛ߥᅚ

ᕈᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ޔ᦭⦡ੱ⒳ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬ߣߥࠆߚ߼ޔ

᳃ਥౄᡰᜬၮ⋚ߪ㕖Ᏹߦᵴ᳇ߠ޿ߚޕ

㧨⴫㧞㧪ࠍߺࠆߣޔਔ୥⵬߇᳃ਥౄᡰᜬጀࠍ

᣿⏕ߦഀߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕᎺߩ㆑޿ࠍ⣁

ߦ߅ߊߣޔਥߥᡰᜬࡉࡠ࠶ࠢߪએਅߩߣ߅ࠅߢ

޽ࠆޕ

Hillary

ᡰᜬጀ

㧦ԘᅚᕈޔԙHispanicޔԚ⊕ੱޔ

ߥ߆ߢ߽ᅚᕈޔ

65ᱦએ਄ߩ㜞㦂⠪ޔᄢቇࠍ಴ߡ

޿ߥ޿ૐਛቇᱧጀޔᐕ෼

5

ਁ࠼࡞એਅߩഭ௛⠪

ጀߣ5

ਁ࠼࡞߆ࠄ

10

ਁ࠼࡞߹ߢߩਛᵹጀޔ

ԛ᳃

ਥౄߩᡰᜬၮ⋚ޔߥ߆ߢ߽ਛ㆏߅ࠃ߮଻቞ነࠅ ߩጀޔԜ㇠ᄖ߿ዊߐߥ↸ߦ૑߻ጀߢ޽ࠆޕᓐࠄ ߇㊀ⷞߔࠆߩߪ୥⵬ߩޟᐼ᳃ߦ౒ᗵࠍ߽ߟޠޟ⚻

㛎ࠁߚ߆ޠߥ⾗⾰ߢ޽ࠅޔߘࠇ߇ޟ⚻ᷣޠ߿ޟࡋ

࡞ࠬࠤࠕޠ᡽╷ߦ෻ᤋߐࠇࠆߎߣࠍᦼᓙߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

ߎࠇࠄ

Hillary

ᡰᜬጀߩߥ߆ߢ߽․ߦᵈ⋡ߔ

ߴ߈ߥߩߪޔ᳃ਥౄߩਛᩭ⊛ᡰᜬၮ⋚ߢ޽ࠆഭ

௛⠪ጀߢ޽ࠆޕᎺ೎಴ญ⺞ᩏࠍߺࠆߣޔᐕ෼ 5

ਁ࠼࡞ᧂḩߩጀߢ

Hillary

߇

Obama

ࠃࠅ

15

ࡐࠗ

ࡦ࠻એ਄ᄙߊᡰᜬࠍᓧߡ޿ࠆߩߪޔCaliforniaޔ

Florida

ޔ

Kentucky

ޔ

Massachusetts

ޔ

New Jersey

ޔ

New HampshireޔNew YorkޔTennessee

ߢޔNew

Jersey

ࠍ㒰ߊߔߴߡߩᎺߢ

Hillary

߇ൎߞߡ޿ࠆޕ

߹ߚ

OhioޔMichiganޔPennsylvania

ߪ᥊᳇ᓟㅌ ߩᓇ㗀ࠍ߹ߞߐ߈ߦฃߌࠆ⊕ੱഭ௛⠪ጀߣૐਛ

ᵹጀ߇ᄙߊޔ޿ߕࠇ߽Hillary

߇೙ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

Obama

ᡰᜬጀ㧦Ԙ↵ᕈޔߣߊߦ

18-29ᱦߩ⧯

޿ጀޔԙ㤥ੱޔԚ㜞ቇᱧ㜞෼౉ޔԛᄢㇺᏒዬ૑

⠪ޔԜήౄᵷߢ޽ࠆޕ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߦᛩ␿ߒߚ

ੱޘߩඨಽߪޟ

ᄌ㕟ޠࠍᦸࠎߢ߅ࠅޔߘߩ⚂7ഀ

߇

Obama

ߦᛩ␿ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

ᄌ㕟ߩᣇะᕈߩ߭ߣߟ

ߦࠗ࡜ࠢᚢ੎ߩ᳿⌕߇޽ࠆߎߣߪ

᣿ࠄ߆ߢޔ⚻ᷣ

߿ࡋ࡞ࠬࠤࠕߥߤታ↢ᵴߦ㑐ࠊࠆ੎ὐ߇

Hillary

ߦ᦭೑ߦ௛޿ߡ޿ࠆߎߣߣኻᾖ⊛ߢ޽ࠆޕ

㧙㧙

⴫㧞 ᐕ੍஻ㆬ᜼಴ญ⺞ᩏߦߺࠆฦ୥⵬ߩᡰᜬጀߩ․ᓽ㧔᳃ਥౄᎺޔ౒๺ౄᎺߩว⸘㧕

․••‪ ࠰ʖͳᢠਫЈӝᛦ௹↚↮↺ஊೌᎍޓࣱ↝ཎࣉ⁷ͅᙀૅਤ

᳃ਥ੍஻ㆬ (39 Ꮊ NET) ౒๺੍஻ㆬ (29 Ꮊ NET)

ALL Hillary Obama ALL Huckab McCain Romney

ో૕㩷

48 46

ో૕㩷

22 42 25

↵ᕈ㩷

43 43 50

↵ᕈ㩷

54 21 43 25

ᅚᕈ㩷

57 52 43

ᅚᕈ㩷

46 24 41 25

⊕ੱ㩷

65 55 39

⊕ੱ㩷

89 22 42 25

㤥ੱ㩷

19 15 82

㤥ੱ㩷

2 27 42 17

䊍䉴䊌䊆䉾䉪㩷

12 61 35

䊍䉴䊌䊆䉾䉪㩷

6 19 46 19

⊕ੱ㩷 ↵ᕈ㩷

28 48 45

㩷

⊕ੱ㩷 ᅚᕈ㩷

37 60 34

㩷

ᐕ㦂 18-29㩷

14 38 58

ᐕ㦂 18-29㩷

11 29 34 21

ᐕ㦂

65+

㩷

18 59 34

ᐕ㦂

65+

㩷

23 16 48 26

⊕ੱ ᐕ㦂 18-29㩷

7 41 53

㩷

⊕ੱ ᐕ㦂

65+

㩷

13 63 29

⑔㖸ᵷ㩷

44 39 33 20

ᄢතᧂḩ㩷

54 52 42

⑔㖸ᵷ䈪䈭䈇㩷

56 10 49 28

ᄢත䇮ᄢቇ㒮ත㩷

46 44 52

ㅌᓎァੱ㩷

22 19 47 25

⊕ੱ ᄢතᧂḩ㩷

32 62 31

ㅌᓎァੱ䈪䈭䈇㩷

78 23 41 25

⊕ੱ ᄢත䇮ᄢቇ㒮ත㩷

32 48 47

㩷

᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ㩷

76 51 45

᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ㩷

3 22 48 16

౒๺ౄᡰᜬ㩷

5 41 49

౒๺ౄᡰᜬ㩷

76 23 42 26

ήౄᵷ䇮䈠䈱ઁ㩷

19 40 52

ήౄᵷ䇮䈠䈱ઁ㩷

21 19 42 20

䊥䊔䊤䊦㩷

47 47 48

䊥䊔䊤䊦㩷

9 15 55 16

ਛ㆏㩷

40 50 45

ਛ㆏㩷

27 14 55 18

଻቞㩷

13 47 44

଻቞㩷

63 27 35 29

䃂ᦨ䉅㊀ⷐ䈭⾗⾰㩷 䃂ᦨ䉅㊀ⷐ䈭⾗⾰㩷

ᄌ㕟䉕䉅䈢䉌䈜㩷

50 29 68

ାᔨ䉕⺆䉎㩷

22 22 47 16

ᐼ᳃䈻䈱ᕁ䈇䉇䉍㩷

14 48 42

ଔ୯ⷰ䈏ห䈛㩷

44 36 25 28

ㆡಾ䈭⚻㛎㩷

23 91 6

ㆡಾ䈭⚻㛎㩷

24 4 61 27

ᒰㆬน⢻ᕈ㩷

9 50 47

ᒰㆬน⢻ᕈ㩷

8 5 69 22

䃂ᦨ䉅㊀ⷐ䈭੎ὐ㩷 䃂ᦨ䉅㊀ⷐ䈭੎ὐ㩷

⚻ᷣ㩷

51 51 44

⚻ᷣ㩷

40 21 44 25

䉟䊤䉪ᚢ੎㩷

27 42 53

ਇᴺ⒖᳃㩷

21 22 30 34

䊓䊦䉴䉬䉝㩷

19 52 43

䉟䊤䉪ᚢ੎㩷

19 21 52 16

㩷 㩷 䊁䊨䊥䉵䊛㩷

16 26 42 22

ᄢㇺᏒ䈮ዬ૑㩷

34 44 52

㩷 㩷

㇠ᄖ䈮ዬ૑㩷

47 50 44

㩷 㩷

↰⥢䋯ዊㇺᏒ䈮ዬ૑㩷

19 52 40

㩷 㩷

ᐕ෼㩷 㪌 ਁ䊄䊦ᧂḩ㩷

40 51 44

㩷 㩷 ᐕ෼㩷 㪌㪄㪈㪇 ਁ䊄䊦㩷

35 47 47

㩷 㩷 ᐕ෼㩷 㪈㪇 ਁ䊄䊦એ਄㩷

24 45 51

㩷 㩷

⊕ੱ㩷 㪌 ਁ䊄䊦ᧂḩ㩷

21 60 33

㩷 㩷

⊕ੱ㩷 㪌㪄㪈㪇 ਁ䊄䊦㩷

22 54 39

㩷 㩷

⊕ੱ㩷 㪈㪇 ਁ䊄䊦એ਄㩷

17 48 47

㩷 㩷

ᦨᓟ䈱 㪊 ᣣ㑆䈮᳿䉄䈢㩷

21 49 44

ᦨᓟ䈱 㪊 ᣣ㑆䈮᳿䉄䈢㩷

25 24 39 27

೨䈱ㅳ䋯䈠䉏એ೨䈮᳿䉄䈢

77 48 48

೨䈱ㅳ䋯䈠䉏એ೨䈮᳿䉄䈢

72 22 43 24

಴ౖ䋺 "ABC News 2008 Demographic Primary Exit Poll Results - Key Groups" and "ABC News 2008 Republican Primary Exit Poll

Results - Key Groups."

⴫ਛ䈱ᢙሼ䈲䇮the National Election Pool (NEP)䈏ⴕ䈦䈢੍஻ㆬ᜼಴ญ⺞ᩏ䋨᳃ਥౄ

39

Ꮊ䇮౒๺ౄ

29

Ꮊ䋩䈱ว⸘

ᐔဋ䇯

Obama

ᡰᜬጀߩ․ᓽ߇ޔߎ߁ߒߚᄌ㕟ᔒะߣޔ

⧯޿㜞ቇᱧ㜞෼౉ߩࠛ࡝࡯࠻ጀ߅ࠃ߮㤥ੱጀߩ

ᡰᜬߦ޽ࠆߣߔࠇ߫ޔ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ጀᚢ⇛

ߩὶὐ߇ߺ߃ߡߊࠆޕ

╙৻ߪޔࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫᚢ⇛ߣߒߡޔ޿߆ߦޟᄌ 㕟ޠߩᏗᦸࠍߟߥ߉ߣ߼ࠆ߆ޕㅒߦ޿߃߫ޔ Hillary

ߘߒߡ

McCain

߇ᒝ⺞ߔࠆޟ⚻㛎ޠߩߥ ߐࠍࠞࡃ࡯ߒޔ෩ߒߊߥࠆႎ㆏ߩ࠴ࠚ࠶ࠢ߿ኻ

┙㒯༡߆ࠄߩ᡹᠄ߦኻߒߡޔᡰᜬጀ߇ߤߎ߹ߢ

Obama

ߩޟᄌ㕟ߩᜂ޿ᚻޠߣߒߡߩࠗࡔ࡯ࠫࠍ

ᡰᜬℂ↱ߣߒߡ⛽ᜬߔࠆ߆ߦ߆߆ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ

╙ੑߦޔHillary

ᡰᜬߩ᳃ਥౄၮ⋚ጀߩ೑ኂ㑐

ᔃࠍᒁ߈ߟߌࠆߎߣ߇㎛ߦߥࠆޕObama

ߩᒝߺ ߪޔධㇱߩ㤥ੱੱญ߇ᄙ޿ᎺޔPotomac

ᵹၞߥ ߤ㜞ቇᱧ㜞෼౉ੱญ߇ᄙ޿Ꮊޔ෻Hillary

ߩ౒๺

ౄᎺޔήౄᵷ߇੍஻ㆬ᜼ߦෳടߢ߈ࠆࠪࠬ࠹ࡓ ߩᎺߢ⊒ើߐࠇߚޕߘߩ৻ᣇߢ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼

ᛩ␿⠪ߩ

76%

ࠍභ߼ࠆޟ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ⠪ޠߢߪ

51%

ኻ45㧑ߢHillary

ᡰᜬߩᣇ߇ᄙ߆ߞߚޕߟ߹ࠅ

Obama

ߪ᳃ਥౄၮ⋚ጀߩᡰᜬࠍᔅߕߒ߽࿕߼

߈ߞߡ޿ߥ޿ޕ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߦ߅ߌࠆ

Obama

ᚢ⇛ߩ

ᦨఝవ੐㗄߇ޔHillary

ᡰᜬߩ⊕ੱഭ௛⠪㓏ጀޔ

ᅚᕈޔ㜞㦂⠪ޔHispanic

ߩᡰᜬ࿕߼ߦ޽ࠆߎߣ ߪ⸒߁߹ߢ߽ߥ޿ޕ

ട߃ߡ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢߪ 㧨⴫㧟

Obama

ߣ

McCain

ߩ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߦ߅ߌࠆᡰᜬጀᲧセ㧪ߦߺ ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔੑ୥⵬߇⃻ᤨὐߢỗߒߊ┹޿วߞߡ

޿ࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪ࡉࡠ࠶ࠢߪޔԘ⊕ੱޔԙਛ㆏߅ࠃ߮

ήౄᵷጀޔߘߒߡԚਛ㑆ᚲᓧጀߢ޽ࠆޕObama

߇੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢᒝ߆ߞߚ㜞ᚲᓧጀߩ৻ㇱߪ౒๺ౄ

ߦᵹࠇࠆน⢻ᕈ߇㜞ߊޔㅒߦૐᚲᓧጀߩᡰᜬߪ

Obama

ߦߣߞߡਇนᰳߢ޽ࠆߦ᜔߽ࠊࠄߕޔ4

᦬߆ࠄ

5

᦬ߦ߆ߌߡᡰᜬ߇ᷫߞߡ޿ࠆޕ

߹ߚ

Obama

୥⵬ᡰᜬ߇ၷ޿ߩߪޔԘ㤥ੱጀޔ

ԙ⧯޿ጀޔԚାઔᔃߩ޽߹ࠅ㜞ߊߥ޿ጀߢ޽ࠅޔ

ߥ߆ߢ߽⧯޿ጀߩേะߪᵈ⋡ߦ୯ߔࠆޕߣߊߦ

Generation Y

ߥ޿ߒ

Millennium਎ઍߣ๭߫ࠇࠆ

20ઍ30ઍߪޔ⋧ኻ⊛ߦ㜞ቇᱧߢࠗࡦ࠲࡯ࡀ࠶

࠻਎ઍߢ߽޽ࠅޔ᡽ᴦߦኻߒߡⓍᭂ⊛ߦ㑐ਈߔ ࠆ௑ะ߇޽ࠆޕᓐࠄߪ

Pew Research Center਎⺰

⺞ᩏ ⁸

ߦࠃࠆߣޔᓐࠄߦవ┙ߟᚢᓟ↢߹ࠇߩ

Silent਎ઍޔਛ㆏ᔒะߩBaby Boomer਎ઍޔߘ

ߩ

ሶଏ

ߢ

౏

౒

↢

ᵴ ࠃ ࠅ ⑳

↢

ᵴ ࠍ ㊀

ⷞ

ߔ ࠆ

Generation X਎ઍߦᲧߴࠆߣޔࠃࠅ᳃ਥౄነࠅ

ߢޔߒ߆߽

2004

ᐕ߆ࠄ

08

ᐕߩ

4

ᐕ㑆ߦ․ߦߘ ߩഀว߇Ⴧ߃ߡ޿ࠆޕో਎ઍᐔဋߩ᡽ౄᡰᜬ߇ޔ

2004

ᐕߢ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ

44㧑㧛᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ47㧑

㧔3 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ꮕ㧕ޔ

2008

ᐕߢ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ

38%㧛᳃ਥ

ౄᡰᜬ

51㧑㧔13

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ꮕ㧕ߢ޽ࠆߩߦኻߒޔ

Generation Y

ߢߪޔ

2004

ᐕ߇ߘࠇߙࠇ

39㧑㧛

⴫㧟

Obama

ኻ

McCain㧦ᡰᜬጀᲧセߣObama

ᡰᜬᄌൻ㧠᦬㨪㧡᦬

಴ౖ㧦 Pew Research Center for the People and the Press,

“McCain’s Negatives Mostly Political, Obama’s More Personal,”

May 29, 2008. http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=425

㧙㧙

52㧑

㧔13 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ꮕ㧕ޔ

2008

ᐕ߇

33㧑㧛57㧑

㧔24 ࡐࠗࡦ࠻Ꮕ㧕ߣޔ᳃ਥౄఝ૏௑ะߪ৻ጀᒝ߹ߞ

ߡ޿ࠆޕ

Obama

߇ߎߩ਎ઍߩᡰᜬߣᾲᗧࠍ޿߆

ߦࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦߦขࠅㄟ߼ࠆ߆߇㎛ࠍីࠆߩߪ

᣿⊕ߢ޽ࠈ߁ޕ

౒๺ౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼̆̆଻቞ᵷߩᙬ⇼

৻ᣇ౒๺ౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩ಴ญ⺞ᩏࠍߺࠆߣޔ

McCain

୥⵬߇ᒝ޿ጀࠃࠅ߽ޔ

ߤߩ౒๺ౄᡰᜬጀ

ߦᒙ޿߆߇᣿⏕ߦ␜ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ

╙৻ߦޔ଻቞ᵷߩᡰᜬߩᒙߐߢ޽ࠆޕ಴ญ⺞

ᩏߦࠃࠆߣޔ౒๺ౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ᛩ␿⠪ߩ᡽ᴦࠗ࠺

ࠝࡠࠡ࡯ߩ⦡ಽߌߪޔ ޟ଻቞⊛ޠ߇

63㧑ޔ

ޟਛ㆏ޠ ߇

27㧑ޔ

ޟ࡝ࡌ࡜࡞ޠ߇

9㧑ߛߞߚ߇ޔߎߩ౒๺

ౄᡰᜬጀਛᩭߩ଻቞ጀߩᡰᜬߢ

McCain

ߪ⚂

1/3

ߒ߆ขࠇߡ޿ߥ޿ޕ

ߎࠇࠄ଻቞ᵷߩ㊀ⷐㇱಽࠍභ߼ࠆޟ⑔㖸ᵷ㧔ቬ

ᢎฝᵷ㧕ޠߪ౒๺ౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩᛩ␿⠪ߩ㧠ഀߦ޽

ߚࠆ߇ޔߘߩੱޘߩᡰᜬߪ␠ ળଔ୯଻቞ߩ

Huckabee

୥⵬ߦᵹࠇߚޕ

ห᭽ߦߒߡޔ౒๺ౄ੍

஻ㆬ᜼ߢߪޟ୥⵬ߣଔ୯ⷰ߇หߓޠࠍᡰᜬℂ↱

ߣߒߡ޽ߍࠆੱ߇ᦨ߽ᄙߊ

44%

޿ߚ߇ޔߎߩ

ੱޘߩᡰᜬ߽McCain ࠃࠅ

Huckabee

ߦᵹࠇߡ޿

ࠆޕ

ߟ߹ࠅޔ⚻㛎߿ାᔨߥߤߩὐߢߪ

McCain

ࠍ

⹺߼ߡ߽ޔห୥⵬ߩኡኈߥ⒖᳃᡽╷ޔㅴᱠ⊛ߥ

ⅣႺ᡽╷ޔੱᎿᅧᆼਛ⛘߿หᕈᗲޔ್੐ᜰฬߥ ߤߩὐߢޔ଻቞ᵷ߅ࠃ߮ቬᢎฝᵷߩ⠨߃ᣇߣᓸ ᅱߥ〒㔌ߩ޽ࠆ̌ਛ㆏଻቞̍୥⵬ࠍޔ౒๺ౄᡰ

ᜬၮ⋚ߩޟ଻቞ᵷޠ߇৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢߤߎ߹ߢᾲᗧ ࠍ߽ߞߡᡰᜬߔࠆ߆ߪᓸᅱߢ޽ࠆޕ

╙ੑߦޔObama

߇᳃ਥౄᡰᜬၮ⋚ߩᡰᜬࠍ࿕

߼ߡ޿ߥ޿ߩߣหߓߊޔ಴ญ⺞ᩏࠍߺࠆ߆߉ࠅ ޟ౒๺ౄᡰᜬ⠪ޠߩ

McCain

ᡰᜬߪ

42㧑ߦߣߤ

߹ࠅޔㆊඨᢙߪઁߩ୥⵬ߦಽᢔߒߚޕ৻⥸ㆬ᜼

ᚢ⇛ߩ⺖㗴ߪޔ

Obama

ߩ႐วߣหߓߊޔ߹ߕౄ

ᡰᜬၮ⋚ࠍ࿕߼ߥߌࠇ߫ߥࠄߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒ᳃ਥ

ౄߣ⇣ߥࠆὐߪޔᄌ㕟߆⚻㛎߆ߣ޿ߞߚࡔ࠶࠮

࡯ࠫജߩ໧㗴ߢߪߥߊޔ౒๺ౄߩẜ࿷⊛ಽⵚޔ

଻቞ᵷߩᙬ⇼ᔃߩḮᴰ߇߻ߒࠈታ⾰⊛ߥ᡽╷ߩ

㆑޿ߦၮߠߊߎߣߢ޽ࠆޕ

McCain

߇᡽╷⊛ߦ଻቞ᵷነࠅߦ⒖േߔࠇ߫ޔ

᡽╷⊛৻⽾ᕈ߇ᄬࠊࠇޔାᔨߩ᡽ᴦኅߣ޿߁ࡉ

࡜ࡦ࠼ߦ߽⥌๮⊛ߥ࠳ࡔ࡯ࠫࠍਈ߃߆ߨߥ޿ޕ ߒߚ߇ߞߡޔ᡽╷⊛ߦᄢ߈ߥᄌᦝࠍߖߕޔ଻቞

ᵷ߿౒๺ౄᡰᜬጀߩᾲᗧਇ⿷ࠍ⵬߁ߚ߼ߦߪޔ

Obama

એ਄ߦήౄᵷ߅ࠃ߮ਛ㆏ߩᡰᜬ₪ᓧ߇

ਇนᰳߦߥࠆߛࠈ߁ޕ

McCain

ߩߎߩ̌ਛ㑆ᅓข̍ᚢ⇛ߦߪޔ

ੑߟߩ

ਇ቟᧚ᢱ߇޽ࠆޕ৻ߟߪޔ౒๺ౄో૕ߦኻߔࠆ

਎⺰ߩㅒ㘑ߩߥ߆ߢޔObama

ߣᲧセߒߡ

McCain

ߦኻߔࠆ਎⺰ߩᾲᗧ߇ᒙ޿ߎߣߢ޽ࠆޕ

਎⺰ߩᾲᗧߪޔ਎⺰⺞ᩏߢޟᡰᜬ᷷ᐲޠߣ๭

߫ࠇޔ⾗㊄㓸߼࡮ࡏ࡜ࡦ࠹ࠖࠕᵴേ࡮ᛩ␿േຬ

ߥߤㆬ᜼ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦᵴേߩో஥㕙ߦᓇ㗀ࠍ෸

߷ߔᡰᜬ⠪ߩᡰᜬᒝᐲޔࡕ࠴ࡌ࡯࡚ࠪࡦߩ㜞ߐ

ߣᜬ⛯ᕈࠍ᷹ࠆዤᐲߣߒߡ㊀ⷞߐࠇࠆޕ

6

᦬

17

ᣣઃ

Washington Post/ABC਎⺰⺞ᩏ⁹

㧔ో☨ᚑੱ

৻⥸ࠨࡦࡊ࡞㧕ߦࠃࠆߣޔ

McCain

߇ᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬

ߦㆬ߫ࠇࠆߎߣߦኻߒߡޟ᳇ᜬߜ߇㜞឴ߒߡ޿

ࠆ

(enthusiastic)

ޠੱߪޔ

42㧑

㧔ޟᄢ޿ߦޠ

9㧑㧗

ޟ߹

޽ޠ33㧑㧕ߢޔObama ߩ

55㧑㧔ޟᄢ޿ߦޠ28㧑 㧗ޟ߹޽ޠ27㧑㧕ߣᄢ߈ߥ㐿߈߇޽ࠆޕ2000

ᐕ ᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߢਔౄ୥⵬ߩ㗻߱ࠇ߇᳿߹ߞߚ

4

᦬

ೋ㗡਎⺰⺞ᩏߩห᭽⾰໧ߢޔBush

౒๺ౄ୥⵬ߦ

50㧑ޔGore

᳃ਥౄ୥⵬ߦ

45㧑ߩੱޘ߇ޟ㜞឴ߒ

ߡ޿ࠆޠߣ╵߃ߚߩߣᲧセߒߡ߽ޔ

McCain߳ߩ

৻⥸਎⺰ߩᾲᗧ߇ߘࠇ߶ߤ㜞޿ߣߪ޿߃ߥ޿ߎ ߣ߇ࠊ߆ࠆޕ

߽߁৻ߟߩ̌ਛ㑆ᅓข̍ᚢ⇛ߩਇ቟᧚ᢱߪޔ

౒๺ౄ߅ࠃ߮଻቞ᵷߩ

Obama

ߦኻߔࠆࡀࠟ࠹

ࠖࡉࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦ߇McCain

ߦޟ〡ߨ㄰ࠅㅒല ᨐ(backrush)ޠࠍ߽ߚࠄߒޔਛ㆏ࠍ㔌෻ߐߖࠆน

⢻ᕈߢ޽ࠆޕᓐࠄߩᦨఝవ੐㗄ߪ౒๺ౄ᡽ᮭߩ

⛽ᜬߦ޽ࠅޔMcCain

ߩ᡽╷߿ℂᔨߦኻߔࠆᙬ⇼

ߦߪ⋡ࠍߟ߱ࠅޔ

Obama

ࠍ⪭ㆬߐߖࠆߚ߼ߦᚻ

Ბࠍㆬ߫ߕޔ̌ࠗࠬ࡜ࡓᢎᓤ⇼ᖺ̍ޔ࠹ࡠ࡝࠭ࡓ

ߣ㑵߁⢻ജ⚻㛎ਇ⿷ޔ᳃ਥౄౝߩಽᢿࠍߨࠄ߁

ࠛ࡝࡯࠻ਥ⟵ᛕ್ߥߤߩਛ்᡹᠄ࠍዷ㐿ߔࠆน

⢻ᕈߪᄢ޿ߦ޽ࠆޕ

㧞㧙㧞 ᢥൻ࡜ࠗࡈࠬ࠲ࠗ࡞ߣࡒࠢࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹

ࠖࡦࠣ

2008

ᐕ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢᵈ⋡ߐࠇߚ᦭ᮭ⠪ጀേะ ߩ৻ߟߪޔᡰᜬ᡽ౄߣ⇣ߥࠆౄ୥⵬߳ߩᡰᜬࠦ

ࡦࡃ࡯࠻ߢ޽ࠆޕౕ૕⊛ߦߪޔ᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼

ߢ

Obama

ߦᛩ␿ߒߚ౒๺ౄ⊓㍳᦭ᮭ⠪߿ޔ

Hillary᠗ㅌᓟObama

ߢߥߊ

McCain߳ߩᛩ␿ᗧ

ะࠍ␜ߔ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬ⠪ߥߤߩሽ࿷ߢ޽ࠆޕᓐࠄ ߪ

Obamacan

޽ࠆ޿ߪ

McCain Democrat

ߥߤߣ

๭߫ࠇޔਔ୥⵬߇ਛ㆏␿߿ήౄᵷጀ߳ߩᶐㅘࠍ

ᷓ߼ߡ޿ࠆ⁁ᴫߣ޽ࠊߖߡޔ2008

ᐕㆬ᜼േะࠍ

৻ጀ⺒ߺߦߊߊߒߡ޿ࠆޕ

ߣ޿߁ߩ߽ޔ

2000

ᐕએ㒠ߩ☨࿖ㆬ᜼⺰⼏ߪ߽

ߞ߬ࠄޟ

50% Nation

㧔ౄᵷ⊛ಽᢿ࿖ኅ㧕ޠߔߥࠊ ߜ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩᡰᜬ᡽ౄߩ࿕ቯൻߛߞߚ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕ ᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼߆ࠄ࿾ᣇ߹ߢⶄᢙ࡟ࡌ࡞ߩㆬ᜼ߩ㐳 ᦼ⊛ᛩ␿േะࠍಽᨆߒߚ

Bill Bishop¹⁰

ߦࠃࠆߣޔ ߎߩౄᵷಽᢿߣ࿕ቯൻߪ߹ߕ

1960

ᐕઍ߆ࠄ

70

ᐕઍೋᦼߦޔਥᵹᵷࠠ࡝ࠬ࠻ᢎળ߿ㄭ㓞ᢎળ⚵

❱ߥߤߩવ⛔⊛ߥ␠ળ⊛⚌Ꮺࠍߪߋߊ߻೙ᐲߩ

⴮ㅌߣหᤨߦㅴⴕߒߚޕߘߩᓟޔᢎળߪ൓ജࠍ

࿁ᓳߔࠆ߇ޔߘࠇߪࠗ࠺ࠝࡠࠡ࡯⦡ߩᒝ޿᡽ᴦ

⊛⚵❱ߣߒߡߢ޽ߞߚޕ

ߎߩ᡽ᴦ⊛ౄᵷಽᢿߪޔBishop ߦࠃࠆߣ

90

ᐕઍએ㒠ߦ৻ጀ㗼⪺ߦߥࠆޕߚߣ߃߫ᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ

᜼ߣㅪ㇌⼏ળ਄ਅਔ⼏㒮ㆬ᜼ߩਃߟߩ࡟ࡌ࡞ో

ㇱߢหߓ᡽ౄ߇ൎߞߚᎺߪޔㆊ෰㧠࿁ߩᄢ⛔㗔

ㆬ᜼(1992, 96, 00, 04)ߢߺࠆߣ

50

Ꮊਛ

34

Ꮊߦ߽

ߩ߷ࠅޔߎߩ⃻⽎ߪ

20਎♿ೋ㗡એ᧪ߪߓ߼ߡߢ

޽ߞߚޕ࿾ᣇߩ㇭࡟ࡌ࡞ㆬ᜼ߢ߽ޔ৻ᣇߩ᡽ౄ

ߩ୥⵬߇ઁౄ୥⵬ߦ

20

ࡐࠗࡦ࠻એ਄ߩᄢᏅߢ ൎߞߚ㇭㧔county㧕ߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ᢙߪޔធᚢߛߞߚ

1976

ᐕㆬ᜼ߢߪో᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ྾ੱߦ৻ੱߛߞߚ ߇ޔ

2004

ᐕߦߪో᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ⚂ඨᢙ߇ߎ߁ߒߚ࿾

Ṗࠅൎ೑ဳߩ㇭ߦዻߒߡ޿ࠆޕߘߩ⚿ᨐޔ2004

ᐕㆬ᜼ߩᐕೋߦޔ⚐☴ߦᶋേ␿ߣߒߡ⺑ᓧน⢻

ߥ᦭ᮭ⠪ߪో૕ߩ

8㧑ߦㆊ߉ߥ߆ߞߚߣ޿߁ޕ

Bishop

ߩಽᨆߢᦨ߽㊀ⷐߥ␜ໂߪޔߎߩౄᵷ

⊛ಽᢿߩ࿕ቯൻޔ᭴ㅧൻ߇ޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ࠍᢥൻ߿࡜

ࠗࡈࠬ࠲ࠗ࡞ޔ᡽ᴦ⊛༵ᅢߩὐߢޟห⾰ߩૃㅢ ߞߚੱޘ(like-minded voters)ޠߩዊࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦಽ 㘃ߔࠆޔ޿ࠊࠁࠆࡒࠢࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣߩࠠࡖ ࡦࡍ࡯ࡦᚢ⇛ߩㅴⴕߣ㑐ㅪߔࠆߣ޿߁ὐߦ޽ࠆޕ ߎߩ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩዊࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ࠍᾖḰߣߔࠆࡒࠢ

ࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣߪޔੱ⒳߿ᐕ㦂ޔቇᱧᚲᓧߥ

ߤߩੱญ⛔⸘ቇ⊛․ᕈ߇ᛩ␿ⴕേࠍ੍᷹ߔࠆᄌ

ᢙߣߒߡߩ⺑᣿ജࠍᄬ߁ߦߟࠇޔ㒯༡ߩ਎⺰⺞

ᩏኾ㐷ኅ߇᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ⚦ಽൻߐࠇߚᢥൻ࡜ࠗࡈࠬ

࠲ࠗ࡞․ᕈ㧔ᢥൻ࡮ᔃℂ⊛․ᕈ㧕ߦᵈ⋡ߒߚ⚿

ᨐߢ޽ࠆޕ․ቯߩᢥൻ⊛༵ᅢ߿ࡔ࠺ࠖࠕⴕേޔ

࡜ࠗࡈࠬ࠲ࠗ࡞ߩ࠺ࠖ࠹࡯࡞ࠍ⚵ߺวࠊߖߚࠢ

࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߪޔᛩ␿ⴕേߩ੍᷹ᐲࠍ㜞߼ࠆߚ߼ߩ

᦭ᮭ⠪ࡊࡠࡈࠔࠗ࡝ࡦࠣߢ޽ࠆޕߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ᦭

ᮭ⠪߅ࠃ߮ᶖ⾌⠪࠺࡯࠲ߩࡑࠗ࠾ࡦࠣߦࠃߞߡ

෼㓸ߐࠇߚ᦭ᮭ⠪ᖱႎߣ᡽ᴦ⊛༵ᅢߣߩ㑐ଥࠍ

␜ߔ࠺࡯࠲ࡌ࡯ࠬ߇૞ࠄࠇޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ࠦࡦ࠲ࠢ࠻

ᚢ⇛ߩ㊀ⷐߥᱞེߦߥߞߚ

¹¹

ޕ

ߘߩవ㚟ߌߪ

90

ᐕઍ

Bill Clinton

ߩㆬ᜼ߢ޽

ࠅޔ80 ᐕઍߩ

Reagan Democrats ߩ಴⃻ࠍߪߓ

߼

FDR ᤨઍߩ᳃ਥౄ᦭ᮭ⠪ᄢㅪวߩ፣უ߇᣿

⊕ߦߥࠆߥ߆ߢޔ౒๺ౄߦᵹࠇࠆ᳃ਥౄᡰᜬጀ

ࠍᅓㆶߒޔᣂߚߥਛ㆏᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ᳃ਥౄㅪวࠍ✬

ᚑߔࠆ⋡⊛ߢ޽ߞߚ¹²

ޕߐࠄߦ

Bush

ߩㆬ᜼ෳ⻎

Karl Rove

ߪߓ߼౒๺ౄ߽ޔ

ᵹേൻߔࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩ

̌ዬᚲតߒ̍ߣࡐࠬ࠻

Reagan

ߩ౒๺ౄࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼

ౣ᭴▽ߩߚ߼ߦห᭽ߩࡊࡠࠫࠚࠢ࠻ࠍផㅴߒߚ¹³

ޕ

㧙㧙

2008

ᐕㆬ᜼ߢߪޔMcCainޔObama ࠍ฽߻୥

⵬߅ࠃ߮ਔ᡽ౄ߇ޔᡰᜬၮ⋚ߩẜ࿷⊛ࠪࡈ࠻ࠍ

޿ߜᣧߊ᝝ᝒߒޔ߹ߚਛ㆏ጀ࡮ήౄᵷጀࠍ

1㧑

ߢ߽ᄙߊขࠅㄟ߻ߚ߼ߦޔࠃࠅᵞ✵ߐࠇߚࡒࠢ

ࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣᚢ⇛ࠍㅴ߼ߡ޿ࠆޕ

ߚߣ߃߫᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢ᦭ᮭ⠪߇

Obama

ᡰ ᜬ ߣ

Hillary

ᡰ ᜬ ߢഀ ࠇ ߚ

ℂ↱

ࠍ ޔ

Ron Brownstein

ߪޟࡆ࡯࡞ᵷ(beer track)ޠߣޟࡢࠗࡦ ᵷ

(wine track)

ޠߣ޿߁ᢥൻ⊛ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ࠍ↪޿

ߡಽᨆߒߡ޿ࠆ

¹⁴

ޕߔߥࠊߜޔޟࡢࠗࡦᵷޠߪ෼

౉߿ᢎ⢒⒟ᐲ߇㜞޿ਥߦࡎࡢࠗ࠻ࠞ࡜࡯ߩ᦭ᮭ

⠪ࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߢޔObama ࠍᡰᜬߒޔ৻ᣇޟࡆ࡯࡞

ᵷޠߪਥߦࡉ࡞࡯ࠞ࡜࡯ߢ

Hillary

ࠍᡰᜬߒߚޕ

᳃ਥౄߪߎࠇ߹ߢ৻⽾ߒߡޟࡆ࡯࡞ᵷޠ୥⵬߇

ᜰฬࠍ₪ᓧߒߡ߈ߚ߇ޔ੹࿁ޟࡢࠗࡦᵷޠ୥⵬

Obama

߇ൎߞߚℂ↱ߪޔ╙৻ߦޔㅢᏱޟࡆ࡯࡞

ᵷޠߩ㤥ੱጀߩᡰᜬࠍขࠅઃߌߚߎߣޔ

╙ੑߦޔ

⚻ᷣ⊛㓏ጀߢಽ߆ࠇߡ޿ߚ౒๺ޔ᳃ਥਔౄߩᡰ ᜬၮ⋚߇ޔᦨㄭߪቬᢎߥߤᢥൻߦࠃߞߡ✢ᒁ߈ ߐࠇࠆࠃ߁ߦߥߞߚߎߣߛߣ޿߁ޕ

୥⵬߿᡽ౄߪޔߎ߁ߒߚᢥൻ⊛ࠢ࡜ࠬ࠲࡯ߩ

หቯࠍ┹޿ว߁ޕWashington Post

ߩᛛⴚࠦ࡜ࡓ

࠾ࠬ࠻

Steven Levy

ߦࠃࠇ߫ޔ2008 ᐕᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ

᜼ߩ․ᓽߪޟࡒࠢࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣߩᚑᾫޠߦ

޽ࠅޔߘࠇࠍ޿߆ߦലᨐ⊛ߦ૶߁߆߇ᰴߩᄢ⛔

㗔ࠍ᳿߼ࠆޕ߹ߚ␠ળ⑼ቇ⛔⸘࠰ࡈ࠻࠙ࠚࠕߩ

ᦨᄢᚻSPSS␠߇㐿⊒ߒߚࡒࠢࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦ

ࠣ↪੍᷹ಽᨆ࠷࡯࡞㧔predictive analytics㧕ࠍ໡

ᬺ⋡⊛ߢߥߊㆬ᜼⋡⊛ߩߚ߼ߦ૶߁㘈ቴߪޔ౒

๺ౄ

Romney

୥⵬㧔੍஻ㆬ᜼㧕ߣ

McCain

୥⵬

㧔৻⥸ㆬ᜼㧕ߩࠦࡦࠨ࡞࠲ࡦ࠻

Target Point␠ޔ

᳃ਥౄߢߪ

Strategic Telemetry␠

㧔Obama

㒯༡㧕ޔ Penn, Shoen & Berland␠

㧔

Hillary㒯༡㧕ޔCatalist

␠㧔᳃ਥౄో࿖ᆔຬળ㧕ߥߤޔࠝ࡯࡞࡜ࠗࡦࠕ

࠶ࡊߢ޽ࠆ

¹⁵

ޕ

߹ߚ᦭ᮭ⠪ߩࡒࠢࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣߩࠢ࡜ࠬ

࠲࡯ߩ଀ߣߒߡޔ

New York Times

ߩ

Kim Severson

ߪޔߤߩࠬ࡯ࡄ࡯ࡑ࡯ࠤ࠶࠻ߢ⾈޿‛ߔࠆ߆ޔ

ࠪ࡝ࠕ࡞߿ࠬ࠽࠶ࠢޔ↞๧ᢱߪߤߎߩࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼

ࠍㆬ߱߆ߣ޿߁࡜ࠗࡈࠬ࠲ࠗ࡞߅ࠃ߮ᢥൻ⊛༵

ᅢ߇ฦ୥⵬ߩᡰᜬጀߢߤࠇ߶ߤ․ᓽ⊛ߦ㆑߁߆

ࠍ৻ⷩߒߚ⴫ࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆ

¹⁶

ޕߚߣ߃߫ࠝ࡞ࠟ

࠾࠶ࠢ㘩᧚ࠍᄙߊឥ߃ߚ㜞⚖ࠬ࡯ࡄ࡯ߦⴕߊጀ

ߪ

Obama

ᡰᜬޔࠃࠅ቟ଔߢⷙᩰ⛔৻ߐࠇߚ࠽ࠪ

࡚࠽࡞ࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼㘩ຠ߇ਗ߱ో☨ࠬ࡯ࡄ࡯࠴ࠚ࡯

ࡦߦⴕߊጀߪ

Hillary

ᡰᜬߣ޿߁ౕวߢ޽ࠆޕ߹

ߚห⚕ࠦ࡜ࡓ࠾ࠬ࠻

David Brooks

ߪޔߎߩࠃ߁ ߥᅢߺߩ㆑޿߇ޔ᡽ౄᡰᜬࠍ໧ࠊߕቇᱧߩ㆑޿ޔ

↢ᵴଔ୯ⷰߩ㆑޿ࠍ෻ᤋߒߡ޿ࠆߣᜰ៰ߔࠆ¹⁷

ޕ

ࡒࠢࡠ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣ߇᦭ᮭ⠪ߩනߥࠆࠬ࡜

ࠗࠬൻࠍㅴ߼ޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ㅪวߩౣ✬߇ߘߩነߖ㓸

߼ߦߔ߉ߥ޿ߥࠄ߫ޔ᳃ਥ᡽ᴦߩ౏౒ⓨ㑆ࠍᜂ

଻ߔࠆ߁߃ߢ߻ߒࠈ᦭ኂߣߥࠅ߁ࠆޕ߆ߟߡߩ

ੱญ⛔⸘ቇ⊛․ᕈߦઍࠊߞߡޟᢥൻߎߘㆇ๮

(culture is a destiny)

ޠߣ޿߁᦭ᮭ⠪௝ߩ᳿߼ߟߌ ߇ⴕࠊࠇࠆߥࠄ߫ޔߘ߁ߒߚࡉ࡜ࡦ࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠍ

ᜎุߔࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪ጀ¹⁸

ߣߩ޿ߚߜߏߞߎߦߥࠆߦ

㆑޿ߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒ઒ߦ৻ᱠㅴࠎߢޔߎߩࠃ߁ߥ

᦭ᮭ⠪ࡊࡠࡈࠔࠗ࡝ࡦࠣߩ⷗⋥ߒ߇ޔੱޘߩᢥ

ൻ↢ᵴߩᄙ᭽ൻߣ޿߁⃻ታߦහߒޔߘߎ߆ࠄᣂ

ߚߥ࿖᳃⚿᧤߳ߩᣇะᕈ߇ᮨ⚝ߐࠇࠆߩߢ޽ࠇ

߫ޔ

2008

ᐕㆬ᜼ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦߩ᳃ਥ⊛ᗧ⟵ߪ᳿

ߒߡዊߐߊߥ޿ߢ޽ࠈ߁

¹⁹

ޕ

㧟 ᐕ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩᎺ࠲࡯ࠥ࠹ࠖࡦࠣ

㧟㧙㧝 ੍஻ㆬ᜼ᣣ⒟ߣ৻ㅴ৻ㅌߩ㐳ᦼൻ

ᒰೋߪޔᄤ₺ጊߣ޿ࠊࠇߚ

2

᦬

5

ᣣ

Super

Tuesday

ߢਔౄߣ߽ޔᜰฬ୥⵬߇੐ታ਄᳿߹ࠆ

߆ߣ੍ᗐߐࠇߡ޿ߚޕታ㓙ߦߪޔ౒๺ౄߪ㧞᦬

㧢ᣣߦRomney

߇᠗ㅌߔࠆߎߣߢ

McCain

߇੐

ታ਄ߩ୥⵬㧝⇟ᚻߣߥߞߚ৻ᣇޔ᳃ਥౄߪޔ

Iowa

ߢ

Obama

߇ൎ೑ޔNH ߢ

HillaryᏎ߈㄰ߔߥߤޔ

৻ㅴ৻ㅌߩធᚢߦ߽ߟࠇߎ߻ޕ

2

᦬

5

ᣣߦ᳃ਥ

ౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼╬ࠍⴕߞߚ

22

Ꮊ㧝⥄ᴦ㗔ߩ߁ߜޔ

Obama

ൎ೑ߪ

13

ᎺޔHillary ൎ೑ߪ

9

Ꮊ㧝⥄ᴦ 㗔ߢޔ੍ᗐߐࠇߚ߶ߤ

Obama

ߩ࿾Ṗࠅൎ೑ߦߪ ߥࠄߥ߆ߞߚޕ

߹ߚ㧨⴫㧝 ੍஻ㆬ᜼⚿ᨐ৻ⷩ㧪ߢ␜ߒߚߣ ߅ࠅޔ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢ㊀ⷐߣߥࠆᄢᎺߢ

Hillary

߇ൎ ߞߚߎߣ߽ޔㆬ᜼⚿ᨐߩᣧᦼ᳿⌕ࠍ㒖ࠎߛޕ㧞

᦬㧡ᣣߩ

Florida

ߣ

Michigan

ߦൎߜޔߘߩᓟ

10

Ꮊߢᢌർߒߚᓟޔ

3

᦬㧠ᣣߩ

Ohio

ߣ

Texas

ޔ

4

᦬

22

ᣣߩ

Pennsylvania

ߦൎ೑ߒߚޕߣߊߦ੍஻

ㆬ᜼ᣣ⒟೨ୟ ߒߩౄⷙ㆑෻ߩ

⟏ೣࠍ߁ߌߚ FloridaޔMichigan

ߩઍ⼏ຬᢙഀᒰߡࠍ߼ߋࠅޔ

ౄౝᗧ⷗ߪഀࠇߚޕㆬ᜼⚿ᨐߩᱜᒰᕈߣ߽㑐ࠊ ࠆߎߣߢ޽ࠅޔ

5

᦬

31

ᣣ᳃ਥౄౄⷙᆔຬળߢඨ ᢙߩઍ⼏ຬᢙࠍ⹺߼ࠆ౏ᑼ᳿ቯ߇ਅߐࠇࠆ߹ߢޔ

⢄ᔃߩ৻⥸ઍ⼏ຬᢙߩ₪ᓧᢙ߇⏕ቯߒߥ߆ߞߚޕ

㧟㧙㧞

Obama

୥⵬ߩᎺᚢ⇛ߩ․ᓽ

6

᦬

4

ᣣઃ

Washington Post

⚕⸥੐ߦࠃࠆߣޔ

Obamaᕆᶋ਄ߩၮᧄᚢ⇛ߪޟធᚢᎺߢ┹ࠅൎߟ

ࠃࠅ߽ޔ৻⥸ઍ⼏ຬᢙࠍⓍߺ਄ߍࠆᚢ⇛ޠߛߞ ߚ

²⁰

ޕߘߩὶὐߪޔOhioޔPennsylvaniaޔFlorida ߥߤᄢ߈ߥធᚢᎺߢ

Hillary

ߥߤ᦭ജ୥⵬ߣᱜ

㕙ኻ᳿ߔࠆࠃࠅ߽ޔޟ♖ኒ(precision)ޠߥ⸘▚ߦ

ၮߠ޿ߡᎺઍ⼏ຬᢙࠍⓍߺ਄ߍߡ޿ߊ஥㕙૞ᚢ ߢ޽ࠆޕ

ߎࠇߪޔ⍮ฬᐲߣ․೎ઍ⼏ຬߥߤౄౝ᦭ജ⠪

ߩᡰᜬߩ෺ᣇߢ

Hillary

ߦᄢ߈ߊഠࠆ

Obama

߇ ൎߟߚ߼ߩޟᔅⷐᕈࠍ೑ὐߦઍ߃ࠆ(a virtue of

necessity)

ޠ╷ߛߞߚޕߒ߆ߒหᤨߦޔ⪇ޘߒߊ

ᱜ㕙⓭⎕ߔࠆࠃࠅ߽ޔౄౝ᦭ജ⠪ߩ෻⊒ࠍ⾈߁ ߎߣߥߊ᳓㕙ਅߢ⌕ታߦࡐࠗࡦ࠻ࠍ㊀ߨޔᯏࠍ ߺߡ৻᳇ߦ᡹߼਄ࠆ߿ࠅᣇߪޔ

Obama⥄り߇⊕

ੱጀߦߣߞߡ⢿ᆭߣߥࠆޟᔶࠆ㤥ੱޠߣߥࠆߎ

ߣࠍߢ߈ࠆߛߌㆱߌޔ⚻ᱧߩ⿷࿕߼ࠍߒޔ৻ᣇ ߢㅦ᡹ߩ࠴ࡖࡦࠬࠍ⷗ㅏߐߕ৻᳇ߦᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼

ߦᛂߞߡ಴ࠆᓐߩᒝ㕤ߢߒߚߚ߆ߥੱ↢ߩᱠ߈ ᣇ

²¹

ߣޔ

ߤߎ߆౒ㅢߔࠆߣߎࠈ߇ߥ޿ߛࠈ߁߆ޕ

Washington Post

ಽᨆߪޔߎߩ

Obama

Ꮊᚢ⇛ߩ ࡐࠗࡦ࠻߇

Obama 㒯༡ߩㆬ᜼ࡑ࠶ࡇࡦࠣߩᏁ

ߺߐߦ޽ߞߚߎߣࠍ␜ໂߔࠆޕᎺᚢ⇛࡮ࡑ࠶ࡇ ࡦࠣᚢ⇛ߩὶὐߪਃὐ޽ࠆޕ

ߘߩ৻ߟߪ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢߥߊౄຬ㓸ળࠍⴕ߁Ꮊ

(Iowa

ߥߤ)ޔ৻⥸ㆬ᜼ߢ౒๺ౄ߇᦭೑ߥᎺ㧔㧨

⴫㧞㧪ߩ

R1

ޔ

R2)

ޔઍ⼏ຬᢙഀࠅᒰߡߩዋߥ޿

ዊᎺߥߤޔ᦭ജ୥⵬Hillary

߇㊀ⷞߒߥ޿Ꮊࠍᚢ

⇛⊛ߦ᡹߼ࠆߎߣߛߞߚޕ

߹ߚ╙ੑߩὶὐߪޔઍ⼏ຬᢙࠍⓍߺ਄ߍࠆ✺

ኒߥᚢ⇛⊛⸘▚ߦ޽ߞߚޕᚢ⇛ਛᨔߩ David Plouffe

ߣઍ⼏ຬᚢ⇛ࠦࡦࠨ࡞࠲ࡦ࠻ߩ

Jeffrey

Brown

ߪޔ⹿⚂ઍ⼏ຬ㧔੍஻ㆬ᜼Ბ㓏ߢ⴫᣿ߒ

ߚᡰᜬ୥⵬ࠍౄᄢળߢ߽ᡰᜬߔࠆ⹿⚂ࠍߒߚઍ

⼏ຬ㧕߇ߘࠇߙࠇഀࠅᒰߡࠄࠇߡ޿ࠆో☨

435

ߩㆬ᜼඙ߏߣߦޔ᧦ઙߏߣߩ✺ኒߥൎᢌࠪ࠽࡝

ࠝࠍ૞ᚑߒߚޕߚߣ߃߫

John Edwards

߇᠗ㅌߔ ࠆ೨ߣᓟߢߪޔ

Obama

ߣ

Hillary

߇ಽ㈩ߒ޽߁ઍ

⼏ຬᢙว⸘ߪᄌࠊࠆޕ߹ߚઍ⼏ຬᢙ߇ᄸᢙߩᎺ ߪޔߘߩᎺߢൎߡ߫

Hillary

ࠃࠅ⏕ታߦ৻ੱએ਄

ᄙ޿ઍ⼏ຬࠍഀࠅᝄࠄࠇࠆߩߢൎߟᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕ

৻ᣇ஧ᢙߩઍ⼏ຬߩᎺߪޔ

⧯ᐓ⽶ߌߡ߽Hillary

ߣหᢙߩઍ⼏ຬࠍขࠇࠆߩߢ࠲ࠗߦᜬߜㄟ߼߫

ࠃ޿ޔߣ޿߁ౕวߢ޽ࠆޕ

╙ਃߦޔߎࠇࠄߩᚢ⇛ߣหᤨਗⴕߒߡޔᎺߏ

ߣߩ߈߼⚦߆޿⚵❱ൻߣࡊࡠࡕ࡯࡚ࠪࡦࠍⴕߞ ߚޕ

Obama㒯༡ߪߔߢߦ2007

ᐕᄐ߹ߢߩᤨὐߢޔ

᳃ਥౄ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩવ⛔⊛ߥᚢ޿ᣇߢ޽ࠆޟ✜ᚢ

ߩᢙᎺ(Iowaޔ

New HampshireޔMichiganޔNevada)

ߢൎߜޔߘߩ൓޿ߢᱷࠅࠍൎߜㅴ߻ޠ߿ࠅᣇߢ

ߪߥߊޔޟࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫߣ⾗㊄㓸߼ߣ⚵❱ߠߊࠅޠ

ߦ㊀ὐࠍ߅ߊᚢ⇛ᣇ㊎ࠍ࿕߼ߚߣ޿߁ޕ

2007

ᐕ

㧙㧙

5

᦬߆ࠄᄐߦ߆ߌߡޟ࿾਄ᚢᚢ⇛ኅޠ

Jon Carson

ߪޔ

Chicago

ߩㆬ᜼ᧄㇱߦ

750

ੱߩࡏ࡜ࡦ࠹ࠖ

ࠕࠍ㓸߼ޔObama ߣ

Chicago⽺᳃ⴝߩ⚵❱ൻᵴ

േߦ៤ࠊߞߚήฬߩࡊࡠߩᜰዉߩ߽ߣߦޔᓟߦ ޟࠠࡖࡦࡊ࡮ࠝࡃࡑޠߣ๭߫ࠇࠆᔀᐩ⊛ߥ⨲ߩ

ᩮࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦታ〣ᴺߩ⻠⠌㧔୘೎⸰໧㧛㔚⹤

ᡰᜬଐ㗬㧛ࡏ࡜ࡦ࠹ࠖࠕખ㑆ߩჇ߿ߒᣇߥߤ㧕 ࠍⴕߞߚޕዊߐߥౄຬ㓸ળᎺ߇ኾ㐷ߩᚢ⇛ኅ

Steve Hildebrand

ߪޔߎࠇࠄߩᛛ⢻ࠍ߽ߟㆇേຬ

ࠍޔ

California

߿

New York

ߥߤ

Hillary

ߩ⍮ฬᐲ

߿⾗Ḯ߇ࡕࡁࠍ޿߁ᄢᎺࠃࠅ߽ޔ߻ߒࠈ

Idaho

߿

Delaware

ߣ޿ߞߚ࿾๧ߥዊᎺޔ

Hillary

߇㊀ⷞ ߒߥ޿ౄຬ㓸ળᎺߩ᳓㕙ਅߩ⚵❱ൻ࿕߼ߦᝄࠅ ะߌߚޕ

੍஻ㆬ㐿ᆎᓟ߽ߎߩᣇ㊎ߪᄌࠊࠄߥ߆ߞߚޕ

KansasޔIdahoޔUtahޔAlaska

ߩㅢ⒓ޟർᭂ࿤ޠ Ꮊߢߪ

Hillary⚵❱ߪ⊝ήޔ߹ߚColorado

ߩࠃ ߁ߦᚢ⇛⊛ߦ㊀ⷐߥᎺߢߪዊߐߥ↸ߩ࡟ࡌ࡞߹

ߢޔHillary

㒯༡ࠃࠅ߽1

ᐕએ਄ᣧᦼߦࠝࡦ࡜ࠗ

ࡦ

Meet Up

ࠣ࡞࡯ࡊ㧔಴ળ޿♽᡽ᴦ 㧕߇૞ࠄ

ࠇߡ޿ߚޕ

DCޔMarylandޔVirginiaޔNorth Carolina

㧠Ꮊߩޟࡐ࠻ࡑ࠶ࠢḧᵹၞޠ߿

Texas

ߥߤޔ᳃

ਥౄ߆⾗Ḯࠍᝄࠅะߌߥ޿Ꮊߢ߽

Obama ⚵❱

߇ࡈ࡞Ⓙ௛ߒߚޕ

Obama

ᚢ⇛࠴࡯ࡈߢᐢ๔

PR

ᚢ⇛ኅߩ

David

Axelrod

ߪޔᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼ߢ᳃ਥౄߪ᡽╷ࠃࠅࡔ

࠶࠮࡯ࠫ㊀ⷞߩᚢ⇛ߦォ឵ߔߴ߈ߛߣ⠨߃ޔ ޟ⚿

᧤ߣᏗᦸޠߩࡔ࠶࠮࡯ࠫࠍ೨㕙ߦ಴ߔ৻ᣇޔᎺ

ߦࠃߞߡ࠙ࠤߩ㆑߁᡽╷㕙ߪᓟᣇ߳ㅌ޿ߚޕᐢ

๔߽ Hillary ఝ൓ߩᄢᎺ߿ធᚢᎺߢߪᓐᅚߩ൓

޿ࠍ೥߉ޔ੕ⷺߦㄭߠߌࠆߚ߼ߦᄢ㊂಴Ⓜߒޔ

৻ᣇዊᎺߢߪൎ೑ࠍ⏕଻ߔࠆߚ߼ߩ㊂ࠍ಴Ⓜߔ ࠆߣ޿߁߈߼⚦߆޿ᚢ⇛߇ㆀⴕߐࠇߚޕ ߎ߁ߒߡ৻⥸ઍ⼏ຬᢙߢߪᓢޘߦ࡝࡯࠼ࠍᐢ

ߍࠆObama

ߩᦨᓟߩ㑐㐷ߪޔ

ᾚ߃߈ࠇߥ޿․೎

ઍ⼏ຬߩᡰᜬേะߛߞߚޕObama

ࠪࡈ࠻ߦߥߛ ࠇㄟ߻ᄾᯏߪޔ

5

᦬

6

ᣣߩ

Indiana

ߢ࠲ࠗޔ

North

Carolina

ߢᄢൎߣ޿߁

Obama㒯༡ߩࠪ࠽࡝ࠝ̆

̆ߘࠇߪ⃻ታߦߥߞߚޕ

㧟㧙㧟 ․೎ઍ⼏ຬᡰᜬേะߩ

Obama

ࠪࡈ࠻

2008

ᐕ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߢߪޔᎺߩ৻⥸ઍ⼏ຬߩว⸘

ᢙߛߌߢߥߊޔᓥ᧪߶ߣࠎߤᵈ⋡ߐࠇࠆߎߣ ߩ ߥ ߆ ߞ ߚ ౄ ᦭ ജ ⠪ ߩ ޟ

․

೎

ઍ

⼏ ຬ

(superdelegates)

ޠ

796

ੱߩᡰᜬ⴫᣿߽ᵈ⋡ߐࠇߚޕ

New York Times

ߩ੍᷹ߢߪޔ3 ᦬

4

ᣣᤨὐߢ

Obama

ᡰᜬ

199

ੱޔ

Hillary

ᡰᜬ

247

ੱޔ

Obama

ᡰᜬ⠪ߪᓢޘߦჇ߃ࠆ߽ߩߩ

Hillary

ᡰᜬ⠪ࠍ

⿥ߔ߹ߢߪ޿߆ߕޔ৻⥸ઍ⼏ຬߣ․೎ઍ⼏ຬߩ

ว⸘ߢޔߤߜࠄ߇ᜰฬ୥⵬ߦߥࠆ߆ࠊ߆ࠄߥ޿

⤔⌕⁁ᘒ߇⛯޿ߚޕ

㧞ࡩ᦬ᓟߩ5

᦬

6

ᣣߦ৻⥸ઍ⼏ຬᢙ߇

100

ੱ ࠍ⿥߃ࠆᦨᓟߩᄢᎺ

North Carolina

ߢ

Obama

߇

࿶ൎߔࠆߣޔObama ߳ߩ․೎ઍ⼏ຬᡰᜬ߇ Hillary

ߩߘࠇࠍ

⿥߃ߚޕߐࠄߦޔFloridaޔ

Michigan

ߩ₪ᓧઍ⼏ຬᢙ߇⏕ቯߒߚ

5

᦬ᧃએ㒠

ߪޔ

࿾Ṗࠅ⊛ߦ․೎ઍ⼏ຬ߇Obama

ᡰᜬࠍ⴫᣿

ߒߚޕ

ౄౝ᦭ജ⠪ߩᡰᜬߪޔ৻⥸ઍ⼏ຬߩᡰᜬേะ ߩߺߦᏀฝߐࠇࠆࠊߌߢߪߥߊޔ߻ߒࠈ㑆ធ⊛

ߢ޽ࠇᷓ޿ᓇ㗀ജࠍ߽ߟߩߪޔౄߩ዁᧪ࠍߦࠄ

ࠎߛࠠࠗࡄ࡯࠰ࡦߩേะߢ޽ࠆޕ

ߚߣ߃߫

John Kerry (1

᦬

11

ᣣ)ޔEdward

Kennedy

㧔1 ᦬

28

ᣣ㧕ޔ

John Edwards

㧔5 ᦬

14

ᣣ㧕 ߥߤ㊀㎾ߩ਄㒮⼏ຬޔ߆ߟߡߩᄢ⛔㗔୥⵬߿࡜

ࠗࡃ࡞ߩ

Obama

ᡰᜬ⴫᣿ޔ᦭ജ⠪ߩᡰᜬ୥⵬ߩ

ᄌᦝߪޔౄౝߦᡰᜬၮ⋚ࠍ߽ߚߥ޿Obama

ߦᱜ

⛔ߥ࿾૏ࠍਈ߃ޔ߹ߚౄౝࠛࠬ࠲ࡉ࡝࠶ࠪࡘࡔ ࡦ࠻ߣߒߡߩ

Hillary

ߩᒝߺࠍ៊ߥ߁ޕ

ౄߩ዁᧪ࠍ⠨߃ࠆ߁߃ߢᦨ㊀ⷐߥߎߣߪޔౄ

ߩᡰᜬጀߩ⠨߃ࠍઍ⴫ߒޔㅴ߻ߴ߈࿖ߩᣇะᕈ

ࠍ␜ߔੱ‛ࠍㆬ߮ޔ⚿᧤ߒߡߘߩ୥⵬ࠍᄢ⛔㗔

ᐭߦㅍࠅㄟ߻ߎߣߢ޽ࠆޕߘߩᗧ๧ߢޔClinton

╙ੑᦼ᡽ᮭߩ㑑௥ߢ޽ࠅޔ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩ࡜ࠗࡃ࡞

ߢ߽޽ߞߚ

Richardson

߇ޔ

3

᦬

23

ᣣ

Obama

ᡰ ᜬ⴫᣿ߢㅀߴߚࠃ߁ߦޔHillary ߇ൎ೑ࠍᗧ⼂ߔ ࠆ޽߹ࠅޔ

ᔅⷐએ਄ߦObama

ߣߩኻ᳿ᆫ൓ࠍᛂ ߜ಴ߒޔຠᩰࠍᰳߊᄬ⸒߿᡹᠄⊛ࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦ ࠍⴕߞߚߎߣߪޔᓐᅚ߇㊀㎾ߩᡰᜬࠍᄬ߁ᩮ᜚

ߩ৻ߟߣߥߞߚߎߣߪ㑆㆑޿ߥ޿ޕ

㧠

2008ᐕ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߩࡐ࡚ࠫࠪ࠾ࡦࠣߣࡉ

࡜ࡦ࠺ࠖࡦࠣ

੍஻ㆬ᜼ᦼ㑆ਛޔࠗ࡜ࠢᖱ൓߇ᴉ㕒ൻߔࠆ৻

ᣇߢޔ⚻ᷣ᥊᳇ߩߐ߹ߑ߹ߥ஥㕙ߢ⁁ᴫᖡൻ߇

᣿ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚޕਛ㑆ᚲᓧጀߦ߹ߢ᜛ᄢߒߟߟ

޽ࠆࠨࡉࡊ࡜ࠗࡓ໧㗴ޔ㜞㛛ߒ⛯ߌࠆࠟ࠰࡝ࡦ

ଔᩰޔਛ⷏ㇱߩᵩ᳓ⵍኂ߿ో☨ⷙᮨߩ┥Ꮞߥߤ

ߩ⥄ὼἴኂߦട߃ߡޔㆊᾲߔࠆ໡ຠᛩᯏ߇߽ߚ ࠄߔ㘩ᢱ߅ࠃ߮‛ଔߩ㜞㛛ޔߐࠄߦ

1992

ᐕએ᧪

ᦨᖡ5.5%

ࠍ⸥㍳ߒߚᄬᬺ₸ߥߤޔ

Bush

ᄢ⛔㗔 ߩᡰᜬ₸ߪ

20㧑บᓟඨߦ߹ߢਅ⪭ߒޔ਎⺰ߪ᣿

ࠄ߆ߦ☨࿖ߩ૗߆߇㑆㆑ߞߡ޿ࠆߣᗵߓޔޟᄌ

㕟ޠ߳ߩᔒะ߇ᒝ߹ࠅࠍߺߖࠆޕ

ߎߎߢߪߎ߁ߒߚᄖㇱⅣႺࠍ߰߹߃ߟߟޔਇ

ḩߣਇ቟ࠍ൐ࠄߖࠆ᦭ᮭ⠪Ꮢ႐ߦะߌߡޔ୥⵬

߇␜ߔㆬᛯ⢇ߣߒߡߩޟᄢ⛔㗔ㆬ᜼୥⵬ߩࡊࡠ

࠳ࠢ࠻ޠޔߔߥࠊߜ┹੎⋧ᚻߣߩఝ૏ὐࠍ฽߻Ꮕ

೎ൻࠍ᣿⏕ߦߒߚޔ᡽╷࡮୥⵬⾗⾰࡮᡽ᮭ௝ߩ

ࡄ࠶ࠤ࡯ࠫߩౝኈߣᚢ⇛ࠍಽᨆߒߚ޿ޕࡑ࡯ࠤ

࠹ࠖࡦࠣ↪⺆ߢ޿߃߫ߎߩࡊࡠ࠳ࠢ࠻ߪޔ᡽╷

߿⾗⾰߿᡽ᮭ௝ߩฦ஥㕙ߦ߅޿ߡޔኻ┙㒯༡ߦ

ኻߒߡఝ૏ߥࡐ࡚ࠫࠪࡦߦ┙ߟߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆࠃ

߁ߦ૞ࠄࠇޔ߹ߚታ㓙ߦߎߩ୥⵬ߛߌ߇ታ⃻น

⢻ߢ޽ࠆߎߣࠍޔ᦭ᮭ⠪ߣ㒯༡߇⏕ାߢ߈ࠆࠃ

߁ߥຠ⾰ା㗬ᕈ㧔ࡉ࡜ࡦ࠼㧕ࠍ஻߃ߡ޿ߥߌࠇ

߫ߥࠄߥ޿ޕ

ߎߎߢߪ੍஻ㆬ᜼ߦ߅ߌࠆਥⷐ୥⵬ߩࡊࡠ࠳

ࠢ࠻ࠍᲧセߔࠆߚ߼ߦޔ୥⵬ߩ᡽╷ᒝ⺞ᐲߩ㆑

޿ޔ᦭ᮭ⠪߇⹺⼂ߔࠆ୥⵬ߩࠗ࠺ࠝࡠࠡ࡯ࡐࠫ

࡚ࠪࡦߣ⾗⾰ޔߐࠄߦኻ┙㒯༡߆ࠄߩኻ᛫⊛ߥ

ቯ⟵ߠߌߣߒߡߩࡀࠟ࠹ࠖࡉࠠࡖࡦࡍ࡯ࡦࠍߣ

ࠅ޽ߍࠆޕ

㧠㧙㧝 ᡽╷ࡐ࡚ࠫࠪ࠾ࡦࠣ̆̆୥⵬߇ᒝ⺞ߔ ࠆ᡽╷㗔ၞߩᏅ

੍஻ㆬ᜼ߪห৻᡽ౄౝߢߩᜰฬ₪ᓧ┹੎ߢ޽

ࠆ߆ࠄޔ୥⵬ߩ᡽╷ౝኈߦߪߘࠇ߶ߤᄢᏅ߇ߥ

޿ߎߣ߇ᄙ޿

²²

ޕ߻ߒࠈ⥄ಽߦ᦭೑ߢኻ┙୥⵬

ߦਇ೑ߥ᡽╷㗔ၞࠍᒝ⺞ߔࠆߎߣߦࠃߞߡޔ⼏

⺰ࠍఝ൓ߥᣇะߦ߽ߞߡ޿ߊߎߣߩᣇ߇㊀ⷐߢ

޽ࠆޕߒߚ߇ߞߡߎߎߢߪޔታ㓙ߩ᡽╷ߩ㆑޿

ࠃࠅ߽ޔ߻ߒࠈᒝ⺞ᐲߩ㆑޿ࠍਛᔃߦޔ᡽╷㕙 ߢߩ୥⵬ߩᏅ೎ൻᚢ⇛ࠍ᭎ⷰߒߡߺߚ޿ޕ

Washington Post

ߩ࠙ࠚࡉࠨࠗ࠻ߢߪޔਥⷐ୥

⵬ߩ᡽╷ߦ㑐ߔࠆ⊒⸒߇ޔਥⷐߥࡔ࠺ࠖࠕ㧔਎

⇇ߩਥⷐႎ㆏ᯏ㑐ޔ᡽ᴦ࠙ࠚࡉࠨࠗ࠻ޔࡉࡠࠣ

ߥߤࠍ✂⟜ߒߡ޿ࠆ㧕ߢ૗࿁⸒෸ߐࠇߚ߆ࠍޔ

᡽╷㗔ၞ೎࡮୥⵬೎࡮᦬೎ߦࡈࠜࡠ࡯ߒߡ޿ࠆ

²³

ޕ ߎߩ࠺࡯࠲ߪޔ୥⵬⥄りߩ᡽╷ᒝ⺞ᐲߩ㆑޿ࠍ

޽ࠄࠊߔߣหᤨߦޔႎ㆏ߩ୥⵬ߥ޿ߒ᡽╷ߦኻ ߔࠆ㑐ᔃᐲߩᄢዊ߽෻ᤋߒߡ޿ࠆޕᓥߞߡߎߩ ᢙሼߪޔᔅߕߒ߽ฦ୥⵬ߩ᡽╷⊛Ꮕ೎ൻߩ⹜ߺ ࠍߘߩ߹߹⴫ߔ߽ߩߣߪ޿߃ߥ޿ޕߒ߆ߒߎߎ ߢ㊀ⷐߥߎߣߪޔߘߩ⹜ߺ⥄૕ࠃࠅ߽߻ߒࠈޔ

᦭ᮭ⠪߇୥⵬ߩᗧ࿑ߔࠆ᡽╷⊛Ꮕ೎ൻࠍ⹺⼂ߔ ࠆ߆ߤ߁߆ߢ޽ࠅޔߘߩᗧ๧ߢႎ㆏ౝኈߦ߅ߌ ࠆ᡽╷ᒝ⺞ᐲߩ㆑޿ࠍ⺞ߴࠆߎߣߪᗧ⟵߇޽ࠆޕ

!

㧨࿑㧝㧪ߣ㧨࿑㧞㧪ߪޔ੍஻ㆬ᜼㐿ᆎ߹ߢߩ

3

ࡩ᦬㑆ߩ᡽╷⸒෸㗫ᐲࠍޔਔౄߩਥⷐ୥⵬೎

ߦߺߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕ

!

㧨࿑㧝㧪ߩ᳃ਥౄਥⷐਃ୥⵬ߪޔ⸒෸㗫ᐲߎ ߘᏅ߇޽ࠆ߽ߩߩޔ᡽╷ᒝ⺞ᐲߩ㗅૏ߢߪޔ৻

૏߇ක≮଻㒾ޔᰴ޿ߢࠗ࡜ࠢᚢ੎ޔ⚻ᷣ⽷᡽ߩ