&KDSWHU
,1752'8&7,21
,Q ODVW WZR FKDSWHUV WKH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH GRQH LQ GRJV WR PHDVXUH WKH SDUDPHWHUVLQSODVPD7KHUHVXOWVRIFKDSWHUDQG ZHUHFRXOGQRWVXPPDUL]HGWKDW WKH R[\JHQ WR[LFLW\ FDQ GDPDJH ERG\ RUJDQ HVSHFLDOO\ OXQJ 6R LQ WKLV FKDSWHU , FRQGXFWHG WKH H[SHULPHQW E\ FROOHFWLQJ EURQFKRDOYHRODU ODYDJH IOXLG %$/) DQG PHDVXUHGWKHELRPDUNHUVLQ%$/)
7KHEURQFKRDOYHRODUODYDJH%$/LVXVHGIRUGLDJQRVLVWKHORZHUDLUZD\VDQG LW LV YHU\ XVHIXO LQ DOYHRODU RU LQWHUVWLWLDO SXOPRQDU\ GLVHDVH SDWLHQWV E\ REWDLQ VSHFLPHQVSDUWLFXODUO\FHOOVOLQLQJWKHDOYHROL /DYDJHF\WRORJ\FDQUHYHDOLQIHFWLRXV IXQJDOSDUDVLWLFDQGEDFWHULDDQGQRQLQIHFWLRXVLQIODPPDWRU\DQGODYDJHIOXLGDOVR XVHG IRU DQDO\]HG PLFURELRORJLFDOO\ ELRFKHPLFDOO\ DQG LPPXQRORJLFDOO\ +RZHYHU
%$/ UHTXLUHV JHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD DQG VKRXOG DYRLG LQ DQLPDOV WKDW KDYH UHVSLUDWRU\
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
FRQWDPLQDWLRQ RI RUDO EDFWHULD PD\ EH IRXQG LQ %$/) 7KH DQLPDOV ZLWK VRPH GLVHDVHV VXFK DV KLVWRSODVPRVLV VPDOO URXQG RUJDQLVPV EODVWRP\FRVLV \HDVW WR[RSODVPRVLVWDFK\]RWHVRUSDUDVLWHVHJJVDQGODUYDHFRXOGEHIRXQGLQ%$/) >@
%$/LVWKH UHOLDEOHPHWKRGWRLQYHVWLJDWHDERXWOXQJLQMXU\RUGLVHDVHVWKDWRFFXULQ OXQJ >@ , LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV OHYHOV IRFXV RQ OXQJ E\ XVLQJ %$/) F\WRORJ\DQGELRPDUNHUV ZLWK%$/PHWKRG
,QFKDSWHUZHVWXGLHGDERXWWKHSODVPD62'LQDQGR[\JHQ JURXS IRU KRXUV RI DQHVWKHVLD 62' LV WKH FRPPRQ ELRPDUNHU WKDW XVHG IRU LQYHVWLJDWHGWKH526LQPDQ\VWXGLHV,QFKDSWHUZHDOVRXVHG62'WRPHDVXUHWKH R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV LQ %$/) DIWHU KRXUV RI DQHVWKHVLD ZLWK GLIIHUHQW R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
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
5HFHQWO\ ,/ LV NQRZQ DV D UHJXODWRU RI LQQDWH DQG DFTXLUHG LPPXQH UHVSRQVH ,/ FDQ EH IRXQG DW VLWHV RI FKURQLF LQIODPPDWLRQ LQ DXWRLPPXQH GLVHDVHVLQDYDULHW\RIWXPRUVDQGLQLQIHFWLRXVGLVHDVHV,QSXOPRQDU\GLVHDVH,/
ZDVHOHYDWHGLQSXOPRQDU\LQILOWUDWHVLQVDUFRLGRVLVSDWLHQWVDQGZDVIRXQGGHFUHDVHG LQ DVWKPDWLF SDWLHQWV ,W ZDV DOVR VLJQLILFDQW GHFUHDVHG LQ %$/) IURP DVWKPDWLF GRQRUVFRPSDUHZLWKQRUPDO >@
0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6
$QLPDOV
)RXUPDOHKHDOWK\%HDJOHVZHUHXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\7KHPHDQRIERG\ZHLJKW ZHUHNJ7KLVVWXG\ZDVSHUIRUPHGLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKJXLGHOLQHVDSSURYHGE\
WKH([SHULPHQW$QLPDO8VH&RPPLWWHHRI,ZDWH8QLYHUVLW\1R$
,QGXFWLRQDQGJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLD
7KH PDOH EHDJOHV ZHUH FURVV UDQGRPO\ DVVLJQHG WR UHFHLYHG DQHVWKHVLD SURWRFROVLQKDODWLRQRI2Q DQG2 Q GXULQJKRXUVRIJHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD ZLWK 6HYRIOXUDQH 6(92)5$1( 0DUXLVKL 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO &R /WG 2VDND -DSDQ 7KH LQKDODWLRQ DQHVWKHVLD DSSDUDWXV ,VHSR $FRPD PHGLFDO ,QGXVWU\
&R/WG7RN\R-DSDQZDVXVHGIRUJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLDHVSHFLDOO\WKLVPDFKLQHFDQ DGMXVW WKH R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ OHYHO 7KH GRJV ZHUH UHSHDWHG WKH RWKHU LQKDODWLRQ ZLWK DW OHDVW ZHHN LQWHUYDO XQWLO FRPSOHWH ERWK SURWRFROV 5HJXODWHG UHVSLUDWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWZDVSHUIRUPHGE\YHQWLODWRU,VHSR$FRPDPHGLFDO,QGXVWU\&R/WG 7RN\R-DSDQ
(DFKGRJZDVLQVHUWHGZLWKLQWUDYHQRXVFDWKHWHULQWRFHSKDOLFYHLQ7KHQWKH GRJV ZHUH DGPLQLVWHUHG DWURSLQH PJNJ 6& $WURSLQH VXOIDWH K\GUDWH PJ
>)XVR@ )XVR 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO ,QGXVWULHV /WG 2VDND -DSDQ PLGD]RODP PJNJ ,9'RUPLFXP$VWHOODV3KDUPD,QF7RN\R-DSDQDQGEXWRUSKDQROPJNJ,9 9HWRUSKDO0HLML6HLND3KDUPD&R/WG7RN\R-DSDQEHIRUHH[SHULPHQWVWDUWHG PLQXWHV 7KHQ DQHVWKHVLD ZDV LQGXFHG ZLWK SURSRIRO PJNJ ,9 $QLPDO SURSRIXO>0\ODQ@,QWHUYHW&R/WG7RN\R-DSDQ$QHQGRWUDFKHDOWXEH:LUH
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± PLQXWHV DIWHU WUHDWPHQW 7KH H[SHULPHQWV ZHUH GRQH DJDLQ ZLWK RWKHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI R[\JHQ DW OHDVW ZHHN LQWHUYDOGHSHQGRQFRQGLWLRQRIWKHGRJV'XULQJDQHVWKHVLDODFWDWHG5LQJHU¶VVROXWLRQ PONJK6ROXODFW7HUXPR&R7RN\R-DSDQZDVDGPLQLVWHUHGLQWRFHSKDOLFYHLQ YLDWKHYHQRXV FDWKHWHUDQGYLWDOVLJQV+555(&*76$3'$30$3(W&2 6S2DQGSHUFHQWDJHRIR[\JHQZHUHPRQLWRUHGHYHU\PLQXWHV
%$/)FROOHFWLRQ
7KH SRO\SURS\OHQH FDWKHWHU 0,1,%$/ 6DPSOLQJ FDWKHWHU +DO\DUG +HDOWK ,QF$OSKDUHWWD86$)LJ ZDVLQVHUWHGLQWRDQGJHQWO\DGYDQFHGWKURXJK WKHOXPHQRIWKHHQGRWUDFKHDOWXEHXQWLOILUPUHVLVWDQFHLVIHOW$V\ULQJHILOOHGZLWK ZDUPHGVWHULOHVDOLQH1RUPDOVDOLQH>2WVXND@2WVXND7RN\R-DSDQZDVDWWDFKHGWR WKH SUR[LPDO HQG RI WKH SRO\SURS\OHQH FDWKHWHU DQG D 166 DOLTXRW LV VWHDGLO\ DQG UDSLGO\LQVWLOOHG7KHWRWDOYROXPHRI166ZDVPONJ >@ 7KHQJHQWOHKDQG VXFWLRQ ZDV XVHG DQG WKH IOXLG ZDV DVSLUDWHG EDFN RXW RI WKH DLUZD\V $V QHJDWLYH
SUHVVXUHLQWKHV\ULQJHZDVIHOWWKHSUHVVXUHZDVOHWRIIWKHV\ULQJHWKHFDWKHWHUMXVW VOLJKWO\EDFNHGRXWDQGDVSLUDWLRQZDVFRQWLQXHG7KHUHFRYHUHGYROXPHRILQVWLOOHG IOXLGZDVQRWHG DQGFDOFXODWHGLQ SHUFHQWDJH:KHQILQLVKHG %$/)PD\EH SRROHG DQGWKHQGLYLGHGLQWRVWRUDJHWXEHVRQHIRUF\WRORJ\DQGWKHRWKHUIRUPHDVXUH,/
62'DQG0'$$IWHUWKHVDOLQHKDGEHHQUHWULHYHGWKHFDWKHWHUZDVFRPSOHWHO\
UHPRYHGIRUPHQGRWUDFKHDOWXEH7KHKLQGTXDUWHUVRIWKHGRJVZHUHHOHYDWHGWRDOORZ IRUGUDLQDJHRIIOXLGUHPDLQLQJLQWKHODUJHUDLUZD\V
%$/ELRPDUNHUVPHDVXUHPHQW
RIUHFRYHUHG%$/IOXLGVZHUHFHQWULIXJHGIRUPLQXWHVDWîJWR UHPRYHSDUWLFXODWHV7KHQFROOHFWHGWKHVXSHUQDWDQWDQGVWRUHGWKHVDPSOHVDW&
$OORIVDPSOHVZHUHPHDVXUHG62',/DQG0'$ZLWKFRPPHUFLDO(/,6$WHVWNLW 62' DVVD\ NLW &D\PHQ 0LFKLJDQ 86$ 'RJ ,/ (/,6$ .LW /6%LR 6HDWWOH 86$&DLQH0'$(/,6$NLW%OXHJHQH%LRWHFK6KDQJKDL&KLQD
%$/F\WRORJLFDODQDO\VLV
RIUHFRYHUHG%$/IOXLGVZHUHXVHGIRUF\WRORJ\7KH%$/IOXLGFHOOFRXQW DQG YLDELOLW\ RI FHOOV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ XVH RI D KHPRF\WRPHWHU 7KRPD KHPRF\WRPHWHU (50$ ,QF 7RN\R -DSDQ 7KH UHPDLQLQJ SRUWLRQ RI HDFK VDPSOH ZDV FHQWULIXJHG ; J IRU PLQXWHV 7KHQ SRXUHG WKH VXSHUQDWDQW 7KH UHPDLQLQJSHOOHWDQGIOXLGLVJHQWO\PL[HGE\IOLFNLQJWKHRXWVLGHRIWKHERWWRPRIWKH WXEHXQWLOWKHFRQWHQWVDSSHDUKRPRJHQHRXV$WUDQVIHUSLSHWWHZDVXVHGWRUHPRYH
OWRPDNHWKHVPHDU7KUHHVPHDUVOLGHVZHUHVWDLQHGZLWK:ULJKW¶VVROXWLRQ7KHQ VOLGHVZHUHFRXQWHGFHOOVSHUFHOOGLIIHUHQWLDOFRXQWZLWKPLFURVFRSH
6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV
$OOUHVXOWVZHUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQDQG6(0 DVDSSURSULDWH$OOUHVXOWVZHUH WHVWHG IRU QRUPDOLW\ )RU HDFK WLPH SRLQW WKH YDOXH IRU WKH H[SHULPHQWDO JURXS ZDV FRPSDUHGZLWKWKDWIRUDEDVHOLQH'LIIHUHQFHVZLWKLQJURXSZHUHDQDO\]HGE\XVLQJ HLWKHU SDLUHG 7 WHVW RU 0DQQ:KLWQH\ WHVW DQG GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ JURXSV ZHUH DQDO\]HGE\XVLQJLQGHSHQGHQW7WHVWRU0DQQ:KLWQH\WHVW9DOXHVRI3d ZHUH FRQVLGHUHGWREHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$OORIVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVZDVGRQHZLWK6366 SURJUDPYHUVLRQ,%0FRUSRUDWLRQ1HZ<RUN86$
5(68/76
$OOGRJVZHUHKHDOWK\7KHPHDQRI:%&5%&DQG3/7FRXQWZHUHO [ODQG [OUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHPHDQRI+&7ZDV7KHPHDQ RI NLGQH\ VHUXP SURILOHV &U ZDV PJGO DQG %81 ZDV PJGO DQG OLYHU SURILOHV$/3ZDV8O**7ZDV8O*27ZDV8ODQG*37ZDV 8O 7DEOH 7KH PRQLWRUHG YLWDO VLJQV ZKLOH WKH GRJV XQGHU JHQHUDO LQKDODWLRQ DQHVWKHVLDZHUHDOOZLWKLQWKHQRUPDOUDQJHV7DEOHDQGQRVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHV GXULQJ H[SHULPHQW WLPH $IWHU DQHVWKHVLD DOO GRJV ZRNH XS VPRRWKO\ DQG UHWXUQ FRQVFLRXVQHVVQRUPDOO\UHJDUGLQJQRUPDODQHVWKHVLD1RFRXJKLQJDQGVQHH]LQJ
7KHPHDQYROXPHRILQVWLOOHGIOXLGDQGUHFRYHU\RILQVWLOOHGIOXLGZHUH PODQGPOUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHPHDQUHFRYHU\UDWHRILQVWLOOHGIOXLGRIVW %$/) QG %$/) DQG UG %$/) ZHUH DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ $QG WKH PHDQUHFRYHU\UDWHRIWRWDOZDV 7KHPHDQWRWDOFHOOFRXQWLQ%$/)FHOOVO RI VW %$/) ZDV VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH FRPSDUHG ZLWK QG %$/) DQG UG %$/) UHVSHFWLYHO\3LQEXWLQJURXSZDVVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFH3 RQO\FRPSDUHGZLWKVW%$/)DQGQG%$/)7KHPHDQRISHUFHQWDJHRIPDFURSKDJHV RIQG%$/)FRPSDUHGEHWZHHQDQGZDVVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV3
$OVR WKH PHDQ RI O\PSKRF\WHV RI QG %$/) DQG UG %$/) ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV3FRPSDUHGEHWZHHQDQGJURXSV )LJ+RZHYHU
%$/)GLIIHUHQWLDOFHOOFRXQWLQVW %$/)FRPSDUHGZLWKQG DQGUG %$/)ZHUHQRW
VWDWLVWLFDOGLIIHUHQFHLQERWKDQGJURXS7KHVXPPDU\RIUHVXOWVRI%$/) DQDO\VLVLVVKRZQLQ7DEOH
%$/)62'
7KHPHDQRI%$/)62'DWKRXUVRIDQGJURXSZHUHDQG 8POUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHPHDQRI%$/)62'DWKRXUVRIDQGJURXS RIQG%$/)ZHUHDQG8POUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGUG%$/)ZHUHDQG 8PO 7DEOH%$/)62'FRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVGHWHUPLQHGDWHDFKWLPHSRLQWIRUDOO GRJVLQHDFKJURXS)LJ 7KHUH ZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVLQERWKJURXSV ZKHQFRPSDUHDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIDQHVWKHVLDE\XVLQJ7WHVW
%$/),/
7KHPHDQRI%$/),/ DWKRXUVRIDQGJURXSZHUHDQG SJPO UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH PHDQ RI %$/) ,/ DW KRXUV RI DQG JURXSRIQG%$/)ZHUHDQGSJPOUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGUG%$/)ZHUH DQGSJPO 7DEOH%$/),/FRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVGHWHUPLQHGDWHDFKWLPH SRLQW IRU DOO GRJV LQ HDFK JURXS )LJ 7KH QG DQG UG %$/) ,/
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVZHUHQRFKDQJHFRPSDUHZLWKEDVHOLQHVW %$/)LQERWKDQG JURXSV7KHUHZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVLQERWKJURXSVZKHQFRPSDUHDW DQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIDQHVWKHVLDE\XVLQJ7WHVW
%$/)0'$
7KHPHDQRI%$/)0'$DWKRXUVRIDQGJURXSZHUHDQG QJPO UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH PHDQ RI %$/) 0'$ DW KRXUV RI DQG
JURXSRIQG %$/)ZHUHDQGQJPOUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGUG %$/)ZHUH DQGQJPO 7DEOH %$/)0'$FRQFHQWUDWLRQZDVGHWHUPLQHGDWHDFKWLPH SRLQWIRUDOOGRJVLQHDFK JURXS)LJ 7KHUG %$/)VLJQLILFDQWO\GHFUHDVHGLQ JURXS ZKHQ FRPSDUH ZLWK VW %$/) +RZHYHU WKH RWKHUV ZHUH QR VWDWLVWLFDO GLIIHUHQFHVE\XVLQJ0DQQ:KLWQH\WHVW
',6&866,21
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
,QJURXSWKHPHDQRI7&&ZDVVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQERWKQG DQGUG
%$/)FRPSDUHGZLWKEDVHOLQHVW %$/)DQGWKHUHZDVVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHRQO\LQ QG %$/) LQ JURXS +RZHYHU WKH LQFUHDVHG 7&& ZDV LQ QRUPDO UDQJH FHOOO >@ ,QVWXG\RI0HUFLHUHWDOWKDWVKRZQWKHUDQJHRIPHDQRI%$/)7&&LQ KHDOWK\EHDJOHVZHUHEHWZHHQWRFHOOO>@ 7KHUDQJHVRI%$/)7&&
LQGRJVZLWKEURQFKRPDODFLDZHUHEHWZHHQWRFHOOO >@
7KHPHDQRIPDFURSKDJHVRIQG%$/)LQJURXSZDVVLJQLILFDQW ORZHU WKDQ JURXS +RZHYHU PDQ\ VWXGLHV UHSRUWHG WKDW WKH '&& RI PDFURSKDJHVLQKHDOWK\GRJVFDQEHUDQJHLQWR >@ RUWR >@ RU
WR >@ ,QRXUVWXG\WKDWFDQVXJJHVWWKDWWKHPDFURSKDJHVZHUHVWLOOHGLQQRUPDO YDOXHV LQ ERWK JURXSV +RZHYHU WKH PHDQ RI O\PSKRF\WHV RI QG DQG UG %$/) LQ JURXS UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW KLJKHU WKDQ JURXS UHVSHFWLYHO\)URPSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVWKHQRUPDOYDOXHVRIO\PSKRF\WHV ZHUHWR >@ ,QPDQ\VWXGLHVWKH\UHSRUWHGWKDW!O\PSKRF\WHVLQ
%$/) ZDV GHILQLWLRQ RI DEQRUPDO LQFUHDVH > @ /\PSKRF\WHV DUH UHVSRQVH WR DLUZD\LQMXU\,QKXPDQWKHHOHYDWHGRI%$/O\PSKRF\WHVFDQEHRFFXUUHGLQDVWKPD VDUFRLGRVLVLQIHFWLRXVGLVHDVHOXQJQHRSODVLDDQGEURQFKLROLWLV >@ $OVRLQKRUVHV
%$/)O\PSKRF\WRVLVFDQEHFRQQHFWHGZLWKYDULRXVUHVSLUDWRU\GLVHDVHV >@ 6RPH VWXG\UHSRUWHGWKDW%$/O\PSKRF\WRVLVLVPRUHWKDQFRXOGXVHDVWKHFULWHULDIRU WKHGLDJQRVLVWKHSQHXPRQLWLVLQGRJV >@ 6DPHDVLQRXUVWXG\WKHLQFUHDVHGRI O\PSKRF\WHVLQ JURXS DQG FDQ LPSOLHG WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI OXQJ DQGDLUZD\ LQMXU\IURPKLJKR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQ,VXJJHVWHGWKDWO\PSKRF\WRVLVLV UHODWLYHO\VHQVLWLYHRUYHU\PLOGOXQJGDPDJHRFFXULQJURXSKRZHYHULWGRHV QRWDIIHFWWKHRWKHUELRPDUNHUV62',/DQG0'$
/RHQGHUVHWDO H[SODLQHGDERXWWKHGHFUHDVHG RISODVPD62'FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ KLJKR[\JHQH[SRVXUHFDXVHGE\SODVPD62'PRYHGWRLQIODPPDWLRQ DUHDOXQJ E\
QHXWURSKLOV DQG PDFURSKDJHV >@ ,Q RXU VWXG\ WKH FRQWURO UDQJHV RI %$/) 62' ZHUH ± 8PO QG DQG UG %$/) 62' LQ JURXS ZHUH KLJKHU WKDQ FRQWURO+RZHYHUWKHUHZHUHQRVWDWLVWLFDOGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQDQGJURXS 62'DQGQHXWURSKLOVFDQUDSLGLQFUHDVHZKHQH[SRVHZLWKVWURQJO\GDPDJHWKDWFDQ UHOHDVH VXSHUR[LGH LQWR WKH DOYHROL >@ ,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKHUH VKRZQ QR LQFUHDVHG RI
%$/)62'LQJURXSDQG QHXWURSKLOV DOVR ZHUHQRWLQFUHDVHG3UHYLRXVVWXG\
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
7KH ,/ LV D SURLQIODPPDWRU\ F\WRNLQH WKDW FRQQHFWHG ZLWK 7K DQG 7K F\WRNLQHV >@,/VKRZHGHOHYDWHGLQERWKVHUXPDQG%$/)LQSDWLHQWVZLWK VDUFRLGRVLVWKDWLVD7KF\WRNLQHGRPLQDQWGLVHDVH2QWKHRWKHUKDQGORZOHYHOVRI
%$/),/KDYH EHHQUHSRUWHGLQDVWKPDSDWLHQWV >@ 3UHYLRXVVWXG\VKRZHGWKDW HOHYDWHG ,/ PLJKW EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVHG QXPEHU RI O\PSKRF\WHV LQ
%$/) LQ LGLRSDWKLF QRQVSHFLILF LQWHUVWLWLDO SQHXPRQLD >@ +RZHYHU LQ WKLV VWXG\
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
0'$ LV D OLSLG SHUR[LGDWLRQ HQGSURGXFW JHQHUDWHG E\ GHFRPSRVLWLRQ RI DUDFKLGRQLF DFLG DQG ODUJHU SRO\XQVDWXUDWHG IDWW\ DFLGV ZKLFK KDV EHHQ XVHG DV DQ LQGLFDWRU IRU GHWHFW LQGXFHG R[LGDWLYH PHPEUDQH GDPDJH > @ 7KH HOHYDWHG 0'$SURGXFWLRQVKDYHEHHQUHODWHGZLWKGLIIHUHQWSDWKRORJLFDOVWDWHV >@ 0DQ\
VWXGLHV GHPRQVWUDWH 0'$ LQFUHDVHG ZKHQ R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV RFFXUUHG DQG GHFUHDVHG IROORZLQJ DQWLR[LGDQW VXSSOHPHQWDWLRQ LQ KXPDQ DQG PDQ\ DQLPDOV VXFK DV GRJV KRUVHV PLFH JRDWV DQG UDEELWV > @ ,Q RXU VWXG\ WKH FRQWURO UDQJHZDVGHWHFWHGDW± QJPODQGRQO\UG %$/)0'$RIJURXSZDV ORZHUWKDQWKHFRQWUROUDQJH,QDGGLWLRQWKHUG%$/)KRXUV0'$RIJURXS ZDVVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVFRPSDUHGZLWKVW %$/)0'$KRXUV7KDWDVVXPHGWKDW R[\JHQKDVORZHUR[LGDWLYHVWUHVV+RZHYHUQG%$/)0'$ZDVQRVLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHVFRPSDUHGZLWKVW %$/)
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
,QFRQFOXVLRQ%$/LVWKHEHVWPHWKRGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHGLVHDVHRUR[LGDWLYH VWUHVVLQOXQJE\XVLQJF\WRORJ\DQGELRFKHPLFDOWHFKQLTXHV7KHO\PSKRF\WHVRIQG
%$/)DQGUG%$/)LQJURXSHOHYDWHGPRUHWKDQDQGVXJJHVWHGWKHULVNRI OXQJ DQG DLUZD\ LQMXU\ 2XU UHVXOWV RI WKH ELRPDUNHUV VKRZHG WKDW RQO\ UG %$/) 0'$ZDVVLJQLILFDQWGHFUHDVHG+RZHYHUWKHRWKHUVZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV , VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU WKDW DIIHFW WR WKH ELRPDUNHUV LV H[SRVXUH WLPH ,I WKH H[SRVXUH WLPH LV VKRUW LW GRHV QRW HIIHFW WR WKH R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV OHYHO +RZHYHUWKHVWXG\DERXWWKHH[SRVXUHWLPHVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGLQIXUWKHU VWXG\
$%675$&76
7KH IRXU KHDOWK\ %HDJOHV ZHUH FURVV UDQGRPO\ DVVLJQHG WR UHFHLYH WZR DQHVWKHVLDSURWRFROVLQKDODWLRQRIDQGR[\JHQGXULQJKRXUVRIJHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLDZLWK6HYRIOXUDQH%$/ZDVSHUIRUPHGWLPHVVW %$/)ZDVSHUIRUPHG EHIRUH VWDUW RI 6HYRIOXUDQH QG DQG UG %$/) ZHUH SHUIRUPHG DIWHU ILQLVK RI VHYRIOXUDQH 7KH %$/) F\WRORJ\ DQDO\VLV DQG %$/) ELRPDUNHUV 62' ,/ DQG 0'$PHDVXUHPHQWZHUHSHUIRUPHG7KHPHDQ6(0RIWRWDOFHOOFRXQWLQ%$/) FHOOVO RI VW %$/) ZDV VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH FRPSDUHG ZLWK QG
%$/) DQG UG %$/) UHVSHFWLYHO\ 3 LQ JURXS 7KH PHDQ 6(0 RI SHUFHQWDJH RI PDFURSKDJHV RI QG %$/) FRPSDUHG EHWZHHQ DQG ZDV VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV
3DQGDOVRWKHPHDQRIO\PSKRF\WHVRIQG%$/)DQG
UG %$/)ZHUHVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV3FRPSDUHG EHWZHHQ DQG JURXSV 7KH PHDQ RI 0'$ RI UG %$/) VLJQLILFDQWO\
GHFUHDVHG LQ JURXS ZKHQ FRPSDUH ZLWK VW %$/) +RZHYHU WKH RWKHUV ELRPDUNHUVZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV ,Q FRQFOXVLRQ KLJK R[\JHQ IRU KRXUV XQGHU JHQHUDO LQKDODWLRQ DQHVWKHVLD KDYH D OLWWOH HIIHFW IRU R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV EXW WKH FKDQJHRIWKHFRXQWVRIO\PSKRF\WHVXJJHVWWKDWSURORQJHGKLJKR[\JHQH[SRVXUHPD\
FDXVHEURQFKLDOLQMXU\
7$%/(6
7DEOH7KHPHDQRIFRPSOHWHEORRGFRXQWDQGVHUXPELRORJLFDOSURILOHV ZLWK QRUPDOUDQJH LQGRJV >@
0HDVXUHGYDOXH 1RUPDOUDQJH
&RPSOHWHEORRGFRXQW
:%&[O ц
5%& [O цϬ͘ϭ
+&7 цϬ͘ϲ
3/7 [O цϰϮ͘Ϯ
.LGQH\SURILOHV &U PJGO цϬ͘Ϭϯ
%81 PJGO цϭ͘ϯ
/LYHUSURILOHV
$/3 8O цϮϯ͘ϳ
**7 8O цϭ͘Ϭ
*27 8O цϮ͘ϱ
*37 8O цϰ͘ϭ
7$%/(6XPPDU\RI%$/)DQDO\VLV
*URXS *URXS
7RWDO VW%$/) QG%$/) UG%$/) VW%$/) QG%$/) UG%$/)
%$/)YROXPH
,QVWLOOHGPO
7DNHRXWPO
5HFRYHU\UDWH
%$/)7&&
FHOOVO
%$/)'&&
0DFURSKDJHV
1HXWURSKLOV
/\PSKRF\WHV
(RVLQRSKLOV
0HDQDQG6(0LVSUHVHQWHGIRUHDFKSDUDPHWHU %$/)EURQFKRDOYHRODUODYDJHIOXLG7&&WRWDOFHOOFRXQW'&&GLIIHUHQWLDOFHOOFRXQW 6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV3ZLWKSDLUHG7WHVWZKHQFRPSDUHGVW%$/)EDVHOLQHZLWKQG%$/)RUUG%$/)LQVDPHJURXS 6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV3ZLWKLQGHSHQGHQW7WHVWZKHQFRPSDUHGEHWZHHQJURXSDQGJURXS
7$%/(7KHPHDQDQG6(0YDOXHVRI%$/)62'FRQFHQWUDWLRQV8PORI JURXSVRIR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIVHYRIOXUDQH
+RXUV *URXS *URXS 7RWDO
/HIW
/HIW
5LJKW
7$%/(7KHPHDQDQG 6(0YDOXHVRI%$/),/FRQFHQWUDWLRQVSJPORI JURXSVRIR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIVHYRIOXUDQH
+RXUV *URXS *URXS 7RWDO
/HIW ц
/HIW
5LJKW
7$%/(7KHPHDQDQG 6(0YDOXHVRI%$/)0'$FRQFHQWUDWLRQVQJPORI JURXSVRIR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIVHYRIOXUDQH
+RXUV *URXS *URXS 7RWDO
/HIW ц
/HIW
5LJKW
6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQKRXUVOHIWDQGKRXUVULJKW
)LJ 0,1,%$/VDPSOLQJSRO\SURS\OHQHFDWKHWHU 7KLVFDWKHWHUZDVLQVHUWHGLQWR OXPHQRIHQGRWUDFKHDOWXEH,WXVHGIRUFROOHFWLQJWKH%$/)7KHHQGWLSRIFDWKHWHULV PDGHRIVRIWVSRQJHVRLWZLOOQRWGDPDJHWRWKHWLVVXH
)LJ7KLVSLFWXUHVKRZVKRZWRLQVHUWWKH0LQL%$/FDWKHWHULQWRWKHOXPHQRI HQGRWUDFKHDOWXEH7KHZD\VWLSRIWKHFDWKHWHULVXVHGIRULQMHFW166DQGUHWULHYH WKH%$/)$WWKHHQGRIHQGRWUDFKHDOWXEHLWZDVFRQQHFWHGZLWKWKHZD\VWXEHWKDW GHVLJQHGIRUFRQQHFWWRWKHDQHVWKHVLDWXEHDQGWKHFDWKHWHU7KHEOXHFRORULVWKHJDWH WKDWIRUORFNWKHWXEHRIFDWKHWHUIRUQRWWRPRYH
)LJ7KHJUDSKRI PHDQ %$/)O\PSKRF\WHFHOOFRXQW RIDQGR[\JHQ JURXSVDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIVHYRIOXUDQH(UURUEDUV6(0
6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV3ZLWKLQGHSHQGHQW7WHVWZKHQFRPSDUHGEHWZHHQ JURXSDQGJURXS
Ϭ ϱ ϭϬ ϭϱ ϮϬ Ϯϱ ϯϬ ϯϱ ϰϬ
>&>LJŵƉŚŽĐLJƚĞĐĞůůĐŽƵŶƚ;йͿ
2[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
ϬŚŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯŚŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯŚŽƵƌƐ;ZŝŐŚƚͿ
)LJ7KHJUDSKRI PHDQ %$/)62'FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDQGR[\JHQ JURXSVDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIVHYRIOXUDQH(UURUEDUV6(0
Ϭ Ϭ͘ϱ ϭ ϭ͘ϱ Ϯ Ϯ͘ϱ
>&^KŽŶĐŶƚƌĂƚŝŽŶƐ;hͬŵůͿ
2[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
Ϭ,ŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯ,ŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯ,ŽƵƌƐ;ZŝŐŚƚͿ
)LJ7KHJUDSKRIPHDQ%$/),/FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDQGR[\JHQ JURXSVDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIVHYRIOXUDQH(UURUEDUV6(0
ϱϰ͘ϴϱ ϱϰ͘ϵ ϱϰ͘ϵϱ ϱϱ ϱϱ͘Ϭϱ ϱϱ͘ϭ ϱϱ͘ϭϱ ϱϱ͘Ϯ ϱϱ͘Ϯϱ ϱϱ͘ϯ ϱϱ͘ϯϱ ϱϱ͘ϰ
>&/>ͲϭϴĐŽŶĐĞŶƚƌĂŝŽŶƐ;ƉŐͬŵůͿ
KdžLJŐĞŶĐŽŶĐĞŶƚƌĂƚŝŽŶƐ
ϬŚŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯŚŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯŚŽƵƌƐ;ZŝŐŚƚͿ
)LJ7KHJUDSKRIPHDQ%$/)0'$FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDQGR[\JHQ JURXSVDWDQGKRXUVRIVWDUWRIVHYRIOXUDQH(UURUEDUV6(0
6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQKRXUVOHIWDQGKRXUVULJKW
Ϭ Ϭ͘ϱ ϭ ϭ͘ϱ Ϯ Ϯ͘ϱ ϯ ϯ͘ϱ ϰ ϰ͘ϱ
>&DĐŽŶĐĞŶƚƌĂŝŽŶƐ;ŶŐͬŵůͿ
KdžLJŐĞŶĐŽŶĐĞŶƚƌĂƚŝŽŶƐ
ϬŚŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯŚŽƵƌƐ;>ĞĨƚͿ ϯŚŽƵƌƐ;ZŝŐŚƚͿ
*(1(5$/',6&866,21
2[\JHQ LV DQ DWPRVSKHULF JDV HVVHQWLDO IRU VXUYLYDO RI DOO OLYLQJ WKLQJV ,W LV ZLGHO\DYDLODEOHDQGXVHIXOLQSUHYHQWLQJDQGWUHDWLQJWLVVXHK\SR[LD >@ ,WLVRQH RI WKH PRVW HIIHFWLYH WKHUDSHXWLF DJHQWV LQ PHGLFDO WUHDWPHQW ,W LV XVHG LQ PDQ\
PHGLFDOWKHUDSLHVDQGDOVRXVHGLQDQHVWKHVLDPDFKLQH+RZHYHUWKHUHSRUWVRISRRU SUHVFULELQJDQGPRQLWRULQJLQDSSURSULDWHGRVHVDUHRIWHQJLYHQ)RUH[DPSOHWKHXVH RIR[\JHQGHOLYHUHGGHYLFHVVXFKDVIDFHPDVNVDQGQDVDOFDQQXOD7KHVHFDQSURGXFH XQH[SHFWHGO\KLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRILQVSLUHGR[\JHQ7KHUHDUHSRWHQWLDOGDQJHUVRI URXWLQH XVH RI R[\JHQ LQ HPHUJHQFLHV $OVR WKH XVH RI DQHVWKHVLD PDFKLQH XVXDOO\
FDQQRWDGMXVWWKHR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRWKHKLJKLQVSLUHGR[\JHQLVXVHGQRUPDOO\
LQ KXPDQ DQG DQLPDOV 7KRVH VLWXDWLRQV FRXOG OHDG WR WKH K\SHUR[LD FRQGLWLRQ DQG K\SHUR[LDPD\EHKDUPIXO >@5HFHQWO\LWKDVEHHQDUJXHGWKDWR[\JHQ VKRXOG EHWKHVWDQGDUGRIFDUHIRUJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLDRUQRW >@
,PEDODQFH FRQGLWLRQ RI R[LGDQW DQG DQWLR[LGDQW OHDGV WR LQFUHDVLQJ RI R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV ZKLFK LQ WXUQ UHVXOWV LQ FHOOXODU LQMXU\ IROORZLQJ LPSDLUPHQW RI PLWRFKRQGULDOIXQFWLRQDQGGDPDJHWRSURWHLQVDQG'1$E\WKHH[FHVVIRUPDWLRQRI 526 > @ 526 VXFK DV 2 +2 DQG +2 SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ QRUPDO VLJQDOLQJ+RZHYHULIWKHVH526ZHUHLQH[FHVVWKH\FDQEHYLWDOO\GHVWUXFWLYHDQG KDYHEHHQLQYROYHGLQVHYHUDOGLVHDVHV >@
7KHREMHFWLYHVRIWKLVWKHVLVDUHWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIR[LGDWLYHVWUHVV E\K\SHUR[LDFRQGLWLRQVIURPWKHXVHGRIKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRILQVSLUHGR[\JHQLQ
JHQHUDODQHVWKHVLDDQGWRILQGWKHVXLWDEOHOHYHORIR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQWKDWVKRXOG XVHLQJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLDRUHYHQLQHPHUJHQF\WUHDWPHQWVLQGRJV:HH[DPLQHGWKH HIIHFWRIR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQRQDUWHULDOEORRGSDUWLDOSUHVVXUHRIR[\JHQDQGVWDWXV RI R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV XVLQJ ELRPDUNHUV LQ SODVPD LQ GRJV XQGHU JHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI OXQJ LQMXU\ ZKHQ WKH ELRPDUNHUV RI R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV DUH XVHG DV DQ LQGH[ LQ GRJV XQGHU JHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD ZDV DOVR H[DPLQHG ZLWK %$/
PHWKRG
7KH3D2 RIDQGJURXSVKRZWKHLQFUHDVLQJDWDQG
PP +J UHVSHFWLYHO\ IRU KRXUV RI JHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD 3XOPRQDU\ R[\JHQ WR[LFLW\ FDQ LQLWLDOO\ VKRZV DW SDUWLDO SUHVVXUHV RI ± PP +J >@
+\SHUR[HPLDLVGHILQHGDV3D2DWPP+JRUKLJKHUDQGWKLVFRQGLWLRQLVNQRZQ WREHKDUPIXO+RZHYHUKRZORQJLWFDQEHWROHUDWHGDQGWKHUHODWLRQVKLSRI3D2 WR SK\VLFDO KDUP VWLOO QRW EHHQ VHWWOHG >@ +RZHYHU 6XZD UHSRUWHG WKDW WKH LQFUHDVH 3D2 ZDVUHODWHGWRWKHDWHOHFWDVLVDQGOHDGVWRDOYHROXVFROODSVH >@ ,QWKLVVWXG\
3D2 FDQ XVH IRU VFUHHQ PRQLWRULQJ K\SHUR[HPLD DQG WKH ULVN RI LQFUHDVH R[LGDWLYH VWUHVVLQGRJV
,Q FKDSWHU , GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH HIIHFW RI KLJK R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ WR R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV OHYHOV E\ PHDVXUHG SODVPD ELRPDUNHUV G520 %$3 62' DQG 2+G*+RZHYHUWKHUHVXOWVRIWKRVHELRPDUNHUVZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV7KH GXUDWLRQ IRU JHQHUDO LQKDODWLRQ DQHVWKHVLD LQ WKLV H[SHULPHQW ZDV KRXUV 7KLV GXUDWLRQLVXVXDOGXUDWLRQIRUJHQHUDOVXUJHU\LQYHWHULQDU\PHGLFLQH,VXJJHVWHGWKDW KRXUV RI KLJK R[\JHQ H[SRVXUH VKRZV OLWWOH HIIHFW LQ GRJV WR WKH ELRPDUNHUV WR
HOHYDWHG$VVDPHDVWKHUHVXOWVRI%$/R[LGDWLYHVWUHVVELRPDUNHUV62',/DQG 0'$LQFKDSWHU DUHDOVRQRWHOHYDWHG
%$/ O\PSKRF\WRVLV RFFXUUHG LQ JURXS DIWHU KRXUV RI KLJK R[\JHQ H[SRVXUH7KDW FDQVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHLQFUHDVHGRIO\PSKRF\WHFRXOGEHDQLQGH[IRU DLUZD\LQMXU\0RUHWKDQRI%$/O\PSKRF\WHFDQXVHIRUPRQLWRUO\PSKRF\WLF LQIODPPDWRU\DLUZD\GLVHDVH >@ +RZHYHU,XVHGKHDOWK\GRJVIRUWKLVVWXG\7KDW FRXOG LPSO\ WKDW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI VRPH DLUZD\ GDPDJHV RFFXU LQ WKH JURXS DOWKRXJKWKRVHGDPDJHVFRXOGQRWDIIHFWWRWKHR[LGDWLYHVWUHVVWRLQFUHDVHWKHOHYHOV RIELRPDUNHUV
0DQ\ UHVXOWV RI WKLV VWXG\ G520V %$3 SODVPD 62' SODVPD 2+G*
%$/)62'DQG%$/),/ZHUHQRVKRZVDQ\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV6RZHFDQ DVVXPHWKDWR[\JHQXVHGIRUWKHKRXUVRIJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLDZLWKVHYRIOXUDQH ZDV VDIH WR XVH LQ GRJV 7KH ILUVW SRLQW WKDW FRXOG VXPPDUL]H LQ WKLV VWXG\ LV WKH GXUDWLRQRIH[SRVXUHWRKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIR[\JHQLVWKHLPSRUWDQWNH\WRLQFUHDVH WKHR[LGDWLYHVWUHVV7KHR[\JHQDW$70ZDVUHSRUWHGWKDWKDVWKHSXOPRQDU\
WR[LFLW\LIH[SRVXUHIRUWKHORQJWLPH± KRXUVLQKXPDQ!KRXUVLQUDWV >
@
$Q LPSRUWDQW FRQVLGHUDWLRQ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI R[\JHQ H[SRVXUH LV WKH 6S2 OHYHO ,Q SDWLHQWV XQGHUJRLQJ JHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD DQG LQ WKRVH ZKR DUH FULWLFDOO\ LOO R[\JHQVDWXUDWLRQLVJHQHUDOO\XVHGWRPRQLWRUK\SR[LD,I6S2LVORZHUWKDQ K\SR[LD LV RIWHQ VXVSHFWHG > @ ,Q WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZH XVHG D ORZHU R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ IRU JHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD +RZHYHU 6S2 UHPDLQHG DERYH 7KLV
VXJJHVWV WKDW D ORZHU R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ PLJKW EH VXIILFLHQW WR PDLQWDLQ R[\JHQ DYDLODELOLW\LQGRJVXQGHUJRLQJJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLD
,Q RXU VWXG\ ZH SHUIRUPHG WKH H[SHULPHQWV IRU KRXUV 7KH UHDVRQ WKDW ZH FKRVH KRXUV IRU LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV LV WKLV GXUDWLRQ LV WKH FRPPRQ GXUDWLRQ IRU JHQHUDO RSHUDWLRQ VXFK DV FDVWUDWLRQ RYDULRK\VWHUHFWRP\ RU DEGRPLQDO VRIWWLVVXHVXUJHU\
7KHVHFRQGSRLQWLVWKHULVNDQGEHQHILWRIWKHKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIR[\JHQ,W LVFRQWURYHUVLDOZKHWKHUK\SHUR[LDLQKDODWLRQGXULQJDQHVWKHVLDVKRXOGEHJRRGRUEDG HYHQWKRXJKLQKXPDQPHGLFLQH$VPHQWLRQHGDERYHKLJKR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDUH UHJDUGHGDVWR[LFEXWPD\SURWHFWDJDLQVWK\SR[LDDQGSUHYHQWGHDWKLQVRPHFDVHV
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
&21&/86,216
7KH KLJK R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DIIHFW WR WKH 3D2 7KH KLJKHU R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV FRXOG LQFUHDVH WKH 3D2 PRUH WKDQ WKH ORZHU R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 7KH FRUUHODWLRQ RI 6S2 DQG 3D2 DUH UHODWLYHO\ ZHOO 3D2 FDQ HVWLPDWH IRUP FDOFXODWHG6S2+RZHYHULWFDQXVHRQO\LQK\SR[LDFRQGLWLRQEXWQRWLQK\SHUR[LD EHFDXVH6S2LVOLPLWHGDWEXW3D2FDQKLJKHUWKDQPP+J&KDSWHU
7KH SODVPD G520V %$3 62' DQG 2+G* OHYHOV RI DOO JURXSV ZHUH QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV DW DQ\ WLPH SRLQW RI WKH VWXG\ , VXJJHVWHG WKDW KLJK R[\JHQ H[SRVXUH IRU KRXUV VKRZV RQO\ OLWWOH HIIHFW WR WKH R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV OHYHOV VR WKH ELRPDUNHUVOHYHOVGLGQRWFKDQJH &KDSWHU
%$/)7&&LQFUHDVHGDIWHUKRXUVRIJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLDLQ+RZHYHU WKH\ ZHUH VWLOOHG LQ WKH QRUPDO YDOXHV RI 7&& IRU %$/) /\PSKRF\WRVLV LQ JURXS FDQ VXJJHVWHG WKH DLUZD\ LQMXU\ %$/) 62' DQG ,/ OHYHOV ZHUH QR VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV ,VXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHWR[LFLW\OHYHOVZHUHLQDGHTXDWH WRDIIHFW R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV OHYHOV 7KH 0'$ DW KRXUV RI JURXS ZDV VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJHV FRPSDUHGZLWK0'$DWKRXUV7KHR[\JHQ JURXSKDVORZHUR[LGDWLYH VWUHVV
&KDSWHU
7KH DXWKRU¶V VWXGLHV KDYH VKRZQ WKDW WKH KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI R[\JHQ IRU KRXUV H[SRVXUH LQ GRJV FDQ HOHYDWHG WKH 3D2 DQG %$/ O\PSKRF\WHV 7KHVH WZR SDUDPHWHUV FRXOG VXJJHVW WKDW KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI R[\JHQ DIIHFW WR WKH GRJV +RZHYHULWGLGQRWDIIHFWQRULWKDGOLWWOHHIIHFWWRR[LGDWLYHVWUHVVVRWKHELRPDUNHU GLGQRWLQFUHDVH7KDWFDQLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHLPEDODQFHRIR[LGDQWDQGDQWLR[LGDQWGLG
QRWRFFXU2[\JHQWR[LFLW\RFFXUVZKHQLQWUDPLWURFKRQGULDO R[LGDQWDQGDQWLR[LGDQW IDFWRUV DUH XQEDODQFHG +RZHYHU LI WKH\ DUH EDODQFHG KRPHRVWDVLV FRQGLWLRQ FRXOG H[LVW >@
7R RXU NQRZOHGJH WKLV VWXG\ LV WKH ILUVW UHSRUW RI WKH XVH RI KLJK DQG ORZ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI R[\JHQ IRU DQHVWKHVLD LQ GRJV DQG R[\JHQ GRHV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\DIIHFWWKHR[LGDWLYHVWUHVVVWDWXVLQGRJVGXULQJJHQHUDODQHVWKHVLDZLWK VHYRIOXUDQHIRUDWOHDVWKRXUVFRPSDUH WRORZHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
$&.12:/('*(0(176
)LUVWRI DOO , DP PRVW JUDWHIXO WR 3URIHVVRU 'U 6DWRK +LURVKL /DERUDWRU\ RI 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 7R[LFRORJ\ ,ZDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ IRU LQYDOXDEOH JXLGDQFH VXJJHVWLRQV DQGFULWLFLVPVWKURXJKDOOH[SHULPHQWVDQGLQWKHSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKLVWKHVLV
, DP DOVR YHU\ JUDWHIXO WR 3URIHVVRU 'U ,VKLL 7RVKLDNL /DERUDWRU\ RI 9HWHULQDU\ 3KDUPDFRORJ\ 2ELKLUR 8QLYHUVLW\ DQG 3URIHVVRU 'U 0RUL 7DNDVKL /DERUDWRU\ RI 9HWHULQDU\ &OLQLFDO 2QFRORJ\ *LIX 8QLYHUVLW\ IRU WKHLU IUXLWIXO GLVFXVVLRQDQGDGYLFHRIWKLVWKHVLV,DPWKDQNIXOWR$VVRFLDWH3URIHVVRU'U7DQDND 5\R 'HSDUWPHQW RI 9HWHULQDU\ 6XUJHU\ 7RN\R 8QLYHUVLW\ RI $JULFXOWXUH DQG 7HFKQRORJ\IRUKLVYDOXDEOHGLVFXVVLRQDQGLQYDOXDEOHUHYLVLRQRIWKLVPDQXVFULSW
, ZRXOG OLNH WR H[SUHVV P\ VLQFHUH JUDWLWXGH DQG GHHSHVW DSSUHFLDWLRQ WR P\
DGYLVRU 3URIHVVRU 'U 8]XND <XML /DERUDWRU\ RI 6PDOO $QLPDO 6XUJHU\ ,ZDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ IRU KLV JXLGDQFH HQFRXUDJHPHQW DQG LQYDOXDEOH VXSSRUW WKURXJKRXW WKLV VWXG\
0\ VLQFHUH WKDQNV DOVR JR WR $VVRFLDWH 3URIHVVRU 'U .DWD\DPD 0DVDKLUR /DERUDWRU\ RI 6PDOO $QLPDO 6XUJHU\ ,ZDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ P\ YLFHDGYLVRU IRU KLV HQFRXUDJHPHQWDQGVXSSRUWP\VWXG\
, DOVR ZLVK WR WKDQN $VVRFLDWH 3URIHVVRU 'U )XNXL 'DLVXNH $VVRFLDWH 3URIHVVRU'U+RVKLQR<XNL'U7DNHL<RVKLPLDQGRWKHUPHPEHUVRI/DERUDWRU\RI
6PDOO $QLPDO 6XUJHU\ ,ZDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ IRU WKHLU FKHHUIXO DQG VXSSRUW GXULQJ P\
VWXG\
0\WKDQNVH[WHQGWRDOOOHFWXUHUVRI'HSDUWPHQWRI9HWHULQDU\6XUJHU\)DFXOW\
RI9HWHULQDU\6FLHQFHV&KXODORQJNRUQ8QLYHUVLW\ IRUHQFRXUDJHGPHWRVWXG\ 3K' LQ -DSDQ , DOVR ZLVK WR WKDQN 'U 1DWWDZDQ 7DQJPDKDNXO IRU KHU IULHQGVKLS WKDW FKHHUIXOPH
)LQDOO\ , RZH P\ VLQFHUH WKDQNV WR P\ IDPLO\ IRU WKHLU ORYH ZKLFK PDGH LW SRVVLEOHIRUPHWRDFKLHYHWKLVZRUN
5()(5(1&(6
$GDPDPD0RUDLWRX .. 3DUGDOL ' 'D\ 0- 3UDVVLQRV 11 .ULWVHSL .RQVWDQWLQRX 0 3DWVLNDV 01 DQG 5DOOLVD 76 &DQLQH EURQFKRPDODFLD $ FOLQLFRSDWKRORJLFDO VWXG\ RI FDVHV GLDJQRVHG E\
$OEHUWL$%RORJQLQL/0DFFLDQWHOOL'DQG&DUDWHOOL07KHUDGLFDO FDWLRQ RI 11GLHWK\OSDUDSKHQ\OHQGLDPLQH $ SRVVLEOH LQGLFDWRU RI R[LGDWLYH VWUHVVLQELRORJLFDOVDPSOHV5HV&KHP,QWHUPHG
$\DOD $ 0XQR] 0) DQG $UJXHOOHV 6 /LSLG SHUR[LGDWLRQ SURGXFWLRQPHWDEROLVPDQGVLJQDOLQJPHFKDQLVPVRI0DORQGLDOGHK\GHDQG +\GUR[\1RQHQDO2[LG0HG&HOO/RQJHY
%DUD]]RQH&+RURZLW]6'RQDWL<55RGULJXH],DQG3LJXHW3) 2[\JHQWR[LFLW\LQPRXVHOXQJ3DWKZD\VWRFHOOGHDWK$P-5HVSLU&HOO0RO
%LRO
%DUWROL 0/ 1RYHOOL ) &RVWD ) 0DODJULQR / 0HORVLQL / %DFFL (
&LDQFKHWWL 6 'HQWH )/ 'L )UDQFR $ 9DJDJJLQL % DQG 3DJJLDUR 3/
0DORQGLDOGHK\GHLQH[KDOHGEUHDWK FRQGHQVDWHDVDPDUNHURIR[LGDWLYH VWUHVVLQGLIIHUHQWSXOPRQDU\GLVHDVHV0HGLDWRUV,QIODPP
%HDQ -: )DFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ FOLQLFDO R[\JHQ WR[LFLW\ $QQ 1
< $FDG 6FL
%HUNRYLWFK 0 7VDGLN 5 .R]HU ( DQG $EX.LVKN , 7KH HIIHFW RI %HWWHULGJH'-:KDWLVR[LGDWLYHVWUHVV"0HWDEROLVP
%LGGOH & 2[\JHQ 7KH WZRIDFHG HOL[LU RI OLIH - $P $VVRF 1XUVH
$QHVWK
%R\OH - 2[\JHQ WKHUDS\ ,Q &UHHGRQ -0% DQG 'DYLV + HG
$GYDQFHG PRQLWRULQJ DQG SURFHGXUHV IRU VPDOO DQLPDO HPHUJHQF\ DQG FULWLFDO FDUH:LOH\%ODFNZHOO
&DODEUR-03ULWWLH-(DQG3DOPD'$3UHOLPLQDU\HYDOXDWLRQRIWKH XWLOLW\ RI FRPSDULQJ 6S2)L2 DQG 3D2)L2 UDWLRV LQ GRJV - 9HW (PHUJ
&ULW&DUH
&DUUHDX$+DIQ\5DKEL%(0DWHMXN$*ULOORQ&DQG.LHGD&
:K\LVWKHSDUWLDOR[\JHQSUHVVXUHRIKXPDQWLVVXHVDFUXFLDOSDUDPHWHU"6PDOO PROHFXOHVDQGK\SR[LD-&HOO0RO0HG
&KDQJ<7&KDQJ:17VDL1:+XDQJ&&.XQJ&76X<-/LQ :&&KHQJ%&6X&0&KLDQJ<)DQG/X&+7KHUROHVRI ELRPDUNHUV RI R[LGDWLYH VWUHVV DQG DQWLR[LGDQW LQ $O]KHLPHUV GLVHDVH D V\VWHPDWLFUHYLHZ%LRPHG5HV,QW
&OHUFK/%0DVVDUR'DQG%HUNRYLFK$0ROHFXODUPHFKDQLVPVRI DQWLR[LGDQW HQ]\PH H[SUHVVLRQ LQ OXQJ GXULQJ H[SRVXUH WR DQG UHFRYHU\ IURP K\SHUR[LD$P-3K\VLRO
&RUQHW $' .RRWHU $- 3HWHUV 0-/ DQG 6PXOGHUV <0 7KH SRWHQWLDO KDUP RI R[\JHQ WKHUDS\ LQ PHGLFDO HPHUJHQFLHV &ULW &DUH
&&
&RXVLQV-/:DUN3$%DQG0F'RQDOG90$FXWHR[\JHQWKHUDS\
DUHYLHZRISUHVFULELQJDQGGHOLYHU\SUDFWLFHV,QW-&KURQ2EVWUXFW3XOPRQ 'LV
&XOOHQ /. 5H\QROGVRQ -$ (IIHFWV RI WLOHWDPLQH]ROD]HSDP SUHPHGLFDWLRQRQSURSRIRODQDHVWKHVLDLQGRJV9HW5HF
'DYLV :% 5HPQDUG 6, %LWWHUPDQ 3% DQG &U\VWDO 5*
3XOPRQDU\ R[\JHQ WR[LFLW\ HDUO\ UHYHUVLEOH FKDQJHV LQ KXPDQ DOYHRODU VWUXFWXUHVLQGXFHGE\K\SHUR[LD1(QJO-0HG
'HDWRQ &0 0DUOLQ '- 5REHUWV &$ 6PLWK 1 +DUULV 3$ .HOO\ )-DQG6FKURWHU5&$QWLR[LGDQWVXSSOHPHQWDWLRQDQGSXOPRQDU\IXQFWLRQ DWUHVWDQGH[HUFLVH(TXLQH9HW-6XSSO
'HQQHU\3$2[\JHQDGPLQLVWUDWLRQLQWKHFDUHRIQHRQDWHVDGRXEOH
'KUXYH + 'DYH\ & DQG 3XUVHOO - 2[\JHQ WKHUDS\ HPHUJHQF\ XVH
'XUOLQJHU(0-6SRHOVWUDGH0DQ$0(6PLW%GH*URRWK+-*LUEHV
$5- 2XGHPDQVYDQ 6WUDDWHQ +0 DQG 6PXOGHUV <0 +\SHUR[LD
$WZKDWOHYHORI6S2LVDSDWLHQWVDIH"$VWXG\LQPHFKDQLFDOO\YHQWLODWHG,&8 SDWLHQWV-&ULW&DUH
(GPDUN / .RVWRYD$KHUGDQ . (QOXQG 0 DQG +HGHQVWLHUQD * 2SWLPDO R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ GXULQJ LQGXFWLRQ RI JHQHUDO DQHVWKHVLD
$QHVWKHVLRORJ\
(QGHVIHOGHU6:HLFKHOW86WUDX(6FKORU$6LIULQJHU06FKHXHU7
%XKUHU&DQG6FKPLW]71HXURSURWHFWLRQE\FDIIHLQHLQK\SHUR[LD LQGXFHGQHRQDWDOEUDLQLQMXU\,QW-0RO6FL
(VWHUEDXHU+6FKDXU5-DQG=ROOQHU+&KHPLVWU\DQGELRFKHPLVWU\
RI K\GUR[\QRQHQDO PDORQDOGHK\GH DQG UHODWHG DOGHK\GHV )UHH 5DGLF %LRO 0HG
)DXQW.*UDKDP6+DUULV$+DXVHU5.LQJ00DUVK$0LOOHU' 0RKQ 7 %HFN 5 6HHEDFK / 6WUDWWRQ + *ROGVWHLQ * DQG 7\QHU &/
6HFWLRQ 0RQLWRULQJ ,Q 'H%XVN 6 6LOEHUVWHLQ 1 -HQVHQ ( DQG 2¶.HHIH / UG HG $QHVWKHVLD IRU WKH SHW SUDFWLWLRQHU %DQILHOG 3HW KRVSLWDO 3RUWODQG
)UHLEHUJHU - &RXORPEH . 6XOLPDQ + &DUUDZD\ 0 DQG 3LDQWDGRVL &
6XSHUR[LGH GLVPXWDVH UHVSRQGV WR K\SHUR[LD LQ UDW KLSSRFDPSXV 8QGHUVHD+\SHUE0HG
)ULMKRII-:LQ\DUG3*=DUNRYLF1'DYLHV666WRFNHU5&KHQJ' .QLJKW $5 7D\ORU (/ 2HWWULFK - 5XVNRYVND 7 *DVSDURYLF $&
&XDGUDGR$:HEHU '3RXOVHQ+(*UXQH76FKPLGW++DQG*KH]]L 3 &OLQLFDO 5HOHYDQFH RI %LRPDUNHUV RI 2[LGDWLYH 6WUHVV $QWLR[LG 5HGR[6LJQDO
)XMLWD 7 )RUPDWLRQ DQG UHPRYDO RI UHDFWLYH R[\JHQ VSHFLHV OLSLG SHUR[LGHVDQGIUHHUDGLFDOVDQGWKHLUELRORJLFDOHIIHFWV<$.8*$.8=$66+,