In the area of economic security, differences in values regarding technology and data act as a centrifugal force between the US and China. In the area of climate change, progress was made at COP 26, including cooperation between the US and China, but the 1.5 degree target remains a major issue.
Intensifying Strategic Competition between the United States and China
Disputes between the United States and China over the origins of COVID-19 and the superiority of vaccines have also increased. On the other hand, the United States and China do not want to intensify the conflict.
Expanding Battles over Techno-hegemony between the United States and China
In this way, the US government seeks cooperation in identifying supply chain vulnerabilities and developing industries. The US government is also very interested in restructuring the supply chain for information and communication equipment.
Increasing Military Tensions in Northeast Asia and Japan’s Response
The purpose of the flight was initially thought to be an expression of dissatisfaction with the invitation of Taiwan's representative to the US inauguration ceremony. However, cuts to the military budget are seen as inevitable under the Biden administration, in part because of the wishes of the left wing of the Democratic Party. Strengthening cooperation between the United States and its allies and actions by China and Russia In the Indo-Pacific region, the United States and its allies conducted the largest exercises since the end of the Cold War, and China and Russia also deepened their military cooperation.
This is believed to be the first joint cruise of the two countries' fleets in the waters around Japan. In the aftermath of the stalemate in negotiations with the United States, North Korea demanded more strongly than ever that the ROK “cease its complacency toward the United States as a condition for dialogue.” In the ROK, the Moon administration's intention to build a legacy emerged ahead of the next presidential election in March 2022.
Additionally, in conjunction with the deployment of the UK's HMS Queen Elizabeth carrier strike group to Asia, the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) conducted joint tactical training in the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea.
Intensifying US-China Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific and ASEAN Faced with Challenges
On September 15, the leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the establishment of AUKUS, which takes its name from the initials of the three countries, which is an important new framework for security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region create. During the press conference announcing the establishment of AUKUS, President Biden emphasized that the future of the three countries and the world depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific that will continue and prosper in the decades ahead. In October, the US-ASEAN summit was held for the first time in four years, and the United States pledged approximately US$100 million in aid in the areas of COVID-19 and climate change.
On the occasion of the G7 meeting of foreign ministers held in the United Kingdom in December, a joint meeting with ASEAN was held for the first time. The development of the QUAD into a platform for promoting concrete cooperation between the four member states across a wide range of fields is welcomed, including the provision of public goods such as vaccines and infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region and the announcement of common policies on important and emerging technologies. Ships during the second phase of the Malabar naval exercise involving India, Australia, Japan and the US in the Bay of Bengal in the Indian Ocean, October 2021.
On the economic front, about 70% of the FTAs and Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) used by Japanese companies are in the RCEP region.
Changing European Perceptions of China and Deepening Engagement in the Indo-Pacific
European countries' interest in the Indo-Pacific region has continued to grow as the EU's views on China have become more unfavorable, and this has been demonstrated in concrete terms through policies and activities. In September, the European Commission and the High Representative released a joint policy document entitled “EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” in which the EU pledged to deepen its engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. European countries also have a greater strategic interest in the Indo-Pacific region and demonstrate their commitment to the region in concrete actions.
France has territories in the Indo-Pacific and has shown great interest in this region. Britain has also announced its intention to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and deepen its engagement in various areas in the Indo-Pacific region by working with ASEAN as ' dialogue partner'. The Japanese government should continue to pursue active diplomacy to further increase the interest of European countries, the EU and NATO in the Indo-Pacific and deepen their engagement.
It is also essential that Japan strengthens its relations with Britain, which has become more involved in the Indo-Pacific region since leaving the EU under the Global Britain initiative.
Russia Seeking an Exit Strategy
At the Eastern Economic Forum, which was convened in early September, the announcement of a new special zone plan for the Kuril Islands, including the northern territories, attracted a lot of attention. While this prevented the complete elimination of the US-Russia arms control framework, the relationship between the two countries did. As a result, the number of staff at the US and Czech embassies in Russia was limited.
Relations between the United States and Russia were thus at their worst since the end of the Cold War, when the leaders of the two countries met in person for the first time in Geneva on June 16 and agreed to return their repatriated ambassadors. to their posts and initiate discussions at working level on all forms of diplomatic cooperation. Following the success of the Geneva Summit, the United States and Russia continued their dialogue. Although the ambassadors of the United States and Russia have returned to their respective posts after the talks in Geneva, the number of embassy staff in both countries has not normalized and working-level discussions on the issue continue.
In response to the rapidly developing situation in Afghanistan, China and Russia, who share a common interest in the stability of the Central Asian region, exchanged views.
Middle East: Withdrawal of US Forces, Revival of the Taliban Regime, and Search for a New Regional Order
The resurgence of the Taliban regime has had a major impact on the situation in the Middle East and Central Asia, as well as on the foreign policies of neighboring countries, including Russia, China, Pakistan and India. However, it has been suggested that IS, in addition to al-Qaeda, which is believed to still have ties to the Taliban, could intensify its activities to highlight its opposition to the Taliban or take advantage of gaps in control of the Taliban on security. As the US withdrawal from Afghanistan shows, the Biden administration is trying to reduce resource deployment in the Middle East.
During Ramadan in April, clashes broke out between the Israeli government and Palestinian Muslim residents at Damascus Gate in Jerusalem's Old City. The withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the resurgence of Taliban rule have given rise to new concerns about the destabilization of the situation in the Middle East and the increased risk of international terrorism, and these factors are expected to have an impact on international relations between major powers, not least the increased involvement of neighboring countries, including China and Russia, in Afghanistan. However, despite the shift of the United States to the Indo-Pacific, the basic structure in which events in the region have a significant impact on global security has not changed, and Japan needs to actively take initiatives and contribute in three areas in particular: Afghanistan, the peace process in the Middle East and the Iranian nuclear issue.
The second issue is peace in the Middle East in relation to the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
The Revival and Challenges of Multilateralism
As the number of infections and deaths increased, countries took measures to control the spread of the disease, which had serious consequences for domestic economic activity and supply chains. The omicron strain, a new variant discovered in South Africa, was confirmed in more than 89 countries by the end of December 2021, causing a rapid increase in infections worldwide. COVAX is a multilateral vaccine distribution framework involving more than 180 countries/regions that have delivered 965 million doses of vaccines to 144 countries/regions by the end of December.
The North-South vaccine gap was highlighted once again by the emergence of new variants and supporting vaccine supply to developing and emerging countries through multilateral frameworks such as COVAX will remain a pressing issue in 2022 as the world as a whole it works. to reduce the spread of the coronavirus and achieve economic recovery. In the area of climate change, multilateralism centered on the Paris Agreement has been renewed, with international discussions focused on the 1.5 degree target. However, on November 10, the United States and China issued a joint statement demonstrating their willingness to cooperate in the field of climate change, which greatly increased the forward momentum of the negotiations.
Stepping up efforts to meet the 1.5 degree target will continue to be a major issue in the run-up to COP27.
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Motohiro TSUCHIYA Vice-President of Keio University and Professor of the Graduate School of Media and Government, Keio University.
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Current responses and measures by the Russian government and oil and gas companies to the global decarbonization trend. Professor, Faculty of Political Studies, Keio University / Adjunct Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs.
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