JAIST Repository: Structural FAVARによる世界景気の要因分析

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Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology

JAIST Repository

https://dspace.jaist.ac.jp/

Title

Structural FAVARによる世界景気の要因分析

Author(s)

竹内, 文英

Citation

経済分析, 184: 75-98

Issue Date

2011-01

Type

Journal Article

Text version

publisher

URL

http://hdl.handle.net/10119/10663

Rights

Copyright (C) 2011 内閣府経済社会総合研究所. 竹内

文英, 経済分析, 184, 2011, 75-98. 本著作物は内

閣府経済社会総合研究所の許可のもとに掲載するもの

です。

Description

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ŔŵųŶŤŵŶųŢŭġŇłŗłœ ͥ͢ͅଲٮࠊܨ͈ါ֦໦ଢ଼

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㩷 ┻ౝ ᢥ⧷㧖㧖㩷䋼ⷐ⚂䋾㩷 ੹࿁ߩ☨࿖⊒ߩ਎⇇หᤨਇᴫߪޔ☨࿖⚻ᷣߩേะߪ਎⇇⚻ᷣߦᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ߦߊߊߥߞߡ ޿ࠆߣ޿߁ޟ࠺ࠞ࠶ࡊ࡝ࡦࠣޠ⺰ߩ⠨߃ᣇߦᄢ᏷ߥ⷗⋥ߒࠍㄼࠆߎߣߦߥߞߚޕߘߩ৻ᣇ ߢޔࠃࠅ㐳ᦼ⊛ߥⷞὐ߆ࠄ࿖㓙⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩ޽ࠅᣇࠍಽᨆߒߚవⴕ⎇ⓥߢߪㄭᐕޔ਎⇇ ⷙᮨߩ᥊᳇ߩㅪേᕈࠃࠅ߽ޔ᰷Ꮊ߿ർ☨ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߥߤߩ࿾ၞ⚻ᷣ࿤ߩേะߦ㑐ᔃ߇㓸߹ ߞߡ߅ࠅޔၞౝฦ࿖ޔ߅ࠃ߮ޔ࿾ၞ㑆ߩ᥊᳇ߩㅪേᕈ߇㜞߹ߞߡ޿ࠆߣ޿߁ᜰ៰߽಴ߡ޿ ࠆޕߎߩࠃ߁ߥ࿾ၞ⚻ᷣ࿤ߩ㉯ᚑߦട߃ޔ੹࿁ߩࠃ߁ߥ․ቯ࿖ߦ↢ߓߚ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇ઁ࿖ߦ ਈ߃ࠆᓇ㗀߿ޔ⾏ᤃ߿ᛩ⾗ߩ਎⇇⊛ߥ᜛ᄢޔ࿖㓙⊛ߥ⾗Ḯଔᩰߩ਄᣹ߥߤߩⷐ࿃߇ⶄ㔀ߦ ⛊ߺว߁ਛߢޔ਎⇇ฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ߩ㑐ଥᕈߪߤߩࠃ߁ߦᄌൻߒߡ޿ࠆߩߛࠈ߁߆ޕ ᧄⓂߪޔⶄᢙ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߦᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ߡ޿ࠆ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߿࿖㓙㑆ߩࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ ലᨐࠍ᛽಴ߢ߈ࠆ structural FAVAR㧔structural factor-augmented vector autoregression㧕ࠍ૶޿ޔ

᧲ࠕࠫࠕ 9 ࠞ࿖ߣਥⷐవㅴ 7 ࠞ࿖ࠍ޽ࠊߖߚ 16 ࠞ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ߩᄌേⷐ࿃ࠍಽᨆߒߚޕᓥ᧪৻

⥸⊛ߥ dynamic factor model ߣ⇣ߥࠅޔstructural FAVAR ߢߪ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ᛽಴ߢ߈ࠆߚ ߼ߦޔฦ࿖ߦᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ߡ޿ࠆ᥊᳇ᄌേⷐ࿃߇૗ߥߩ߆ࠍ․ቯߒ߿ߔ޿ޕ⃻ታߩ↢↥ᕈ߿ ⾗Ḯଔᩰ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢޔ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߥߤߣᲧセߒߚߣߎࠈޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕޔవㅴ⻉࿖ߣ߽ߦޔ2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ߆ࠄߩࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ଔᩰ਄᣹ߩᓇ㗀ࠍᒝߊฃߌߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚޕ߹ߚޔ ㅢ⽻⛔วߥߤߩޔ޿ࠊࠁࠆ೙ᐲ⊛ߥ⛔วࠍᨐߚߒߚ᰷Ꮊࠃࠅ߽᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩᣇ߇ޔ࿾ၞⷐ࿃ ߩᨐߚߔᓎഀ߇ᄢ߈޿ߎߣ߇᣿ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚޕห࿾ၞߩᎿ⒟㑆ಽᬺߦ઻޿ᵴ⊒ߦ߿ࠅขࠅ ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ⾗ᧄ⽷ߦ૕ൻߒߚᛛⴚ㧔ᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ㧕ߩ⫾Ⓧ߿ޔャ಴┹੎ജߣኒធߥ 㑐ଥࠍᜬߟ౞࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻ߩേะ߇⢛᥊ߦ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ৻ᣇޔవㅴ⻉࿖ߪోⷐ⚛↢↥ ᕈ㧔TFP㧕߿㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ޿ࠆޕ

JEL classification: C32, E32, F41, F42

Key words: ࿖㓙⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩㅪേᕈޔStructural FAVARޔᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ

㩷

㧖 ᧄಽᨆߪޔ2009 ᐕᐲᣣᧄ⚻ᷣቇળᤐቄᄢળ㧔2009 ᐕ 6 ᦬㧕ߦ߅ߌࠆႎ๔ߦട╩ޔୃᱜࠍട߃ߚ߽ߩߢ ޽ࠆޕ⸛⺰⠪ߩ↰┵స⥋వ↢㧔ੑ᧻ቇ⥢ᄢቇ㧕ࠃࠅ⾆㊀ߥࠦࡔࡦ࠻ࠍ㗂޿ߚޕ߹ߚޔ㧞ੱߩᧄ⹹ඞฬ࡟ࡈ ࠚ࡝࡯߆ࠄ߽ᢙᄙߊߩ⾆㊀ߥࠦࡔࡦ࠻ࠍ㗂޿ߚޕ⸥ߒߡᗵ⻢↳ߒ਄ߍࠆޕ 㧖㧖 _{ᣣᧄ⚻ᷣᣂ⡞␠ fumihide.takeuchi @nex.nikkei.co.jp}

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A Decomposition of Global Business Cycles Using Structural FAVAR

By Fumihide TAKEUCHI

Abstract

The recent global recession triggered by the financial crisis in the United States seems to invali-date the hypothesis frequently heard prior to the crisis that other countries can “decouple” from the US economy. At the same time, though, the literature on international business cycles suggests that, from a longer-term perspective, the global synchronization of business cycles is becoming some-what less pronounced, while on the other hand regional synchronization among the highly inte-grated economies of North America, Western Europe, and emerging Asia, as well as between North America and Western Europe on the one hand and emerging Asia on the other, appears to be in-creasing.

This paper employs the structural FAVAR (structural factor-augmented vector autoregression) method to analyze factors affecting the business cycles of sixteen economies including the seven major developed and nine East Asian countries. Comparing these extracted shocks with empirically observed financial, productivity and natural resource price shocks reveals that all countries have been affected by soaring energy prices, especially in the 2000s. Another interesting feature to note is that the business cycles of East Asian economies are affected to a large extent by common factors, while those of the Euro zone countries are not. In East Asia, the observed business cycle synchro-nization appears to reflect the accumulation of technology (investment-specific technological change) embodied in capital goods traded vigorously in the region and also the fluctuation in the exchange rate of the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar, which has a close link to the competi-tiveness of their exports relative to Japanese exports. On the other hand, the synchronization of business cycles among developed countries arises through financial and total factor productivity (TFP) shocks.

JEL classification: C32, E32, F41, F42

Key words: International business cycle synchronization, Structural FAVAR, Investment-specific technological change

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㧝 ߪߓ߼ߦ

2008 ᐕᓟඨ߆ࠄ㗼࿷ൻߒߚ☨࿖⊒ߩ㊄Ⲣෂᯏߪޔ਎⇇ฦ࿖ߩታ૕⚻ᷣߦᷓೞߥᓇ㗀ࠍਈ ߃ߚޕ☨࿖⚻ᷣ߇ᷫㅦߒᆎ߼ߚᒰೋߪޔ໧㗴߇૑ቛᛩ⾗ߣ޿߁Ყセ⊛㒢ࠄࠇߚ࠮ࠢ࠲࡯ߦ 㒢ቯߐࠇޔઁߩ࠮ࠢ࠲࡯ޔᒁ޿ߡߪᶏᄖ⚻ᷣߦ߽ߚࠄߐࠇࠆࠗࡦࡄࠢ࠻߇ዊߐ߆ߞߚߚ߼ޔ ☨࿖⚻ᷣߩേะߪ਎⇇⚻ᷣߦᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ߦߊߊߥߞߡ޿ࠆߣ޿߁ޟ࠺ࠞ࠶ࡊ࡝ࡦࠣޠ⺰߇ ⋓ࠎߦ༗વߐࠇߚޕߒ߆ߒޔ੹߿ޔߎ߁ߒߚ࠺ࠞ࠶ࡊ࡝ࡦࠣ⺰ߪᕆㅦߦᓇࠍ߭ߘ߼ߡ޿ࠆޕ ߎߩࠃ߁ߦ⚻ᷣ⁁ᴫ߇⍴ᦼ㑆ߦᄢ߈ߊᄌേߔࠆߥ߆ߢޔ਎⇇ฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇߇⋧੕ߦߤߩࠃ ߁ߥࡔࠞ࠾࠭ࡓߩ߽ߣߢ㑐ଥߒ޽ߞߡ޿ࠆߩ߆ޔߣ޿߁ὐߦᡷ߼ߡᵈ⋡߇㓸߹ߞߡ޿ࠆޕ ࠺ࠞ࠶ࡊ࡝ࡦࠣ⺰ߩᅷᒰᕈࠍᣧ޿ᤨᦼߦ൮᜝⊛ߦᬌ⸛ߒߚ IMF㧔2007㧕ߦ޽ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ਎ ⇇⚻ᷣߩ⚂ 3 ഀࠍභ߼ࠆ☨࿖ߩᓇ㗀ᛮ߈ߦߪޔߎߩ໧㗴ߦធㄭߔࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ߥ޿ߩߪ⏕ ߆ߢ޽ࠆޕߘߩ႐วߦߪޟ☨࿖߇ߊߒ߾ߺࠍߔࠆߣᱷࠅߩ࿖ޘ߇㘑㇎ࠍᒁߊޠߣ޿߁⸒޿ ᣇ߇ࠃߊߥߐࠇࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ☨࿖ߢ⊒↢ߒߚ૗ࠄ߆ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇ߘߩᓟઁ࿖ߦᵄ෸ߔࠆߣ޿ ߁ޔ․ቯ࿖ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߩ޽ࠅᣇ߇ὶὐߦߥࠆޕ੹࿁ߩ☨࿖⊒ߩ਎⇇ หᤨਇᴫߦߪޔߘ߁ߒߚࡔࠞ࠾࠭ࡓ߇ᄙಽߦ௛޿ߡ޿ࠆߎߣߪ㑆㆑޿ߥ޿ߛࠈ߁ޕ ߒ߆ߒޔ਎⇇᥊᳇߇ㅪേᕈࠍ㜞߼ߚㆊ෰ߩ޿ߊߟ߆ߩዪ㕙ࠍᝄࠅ㄰ߞߚ႐วޔߎ߁ߒߚ ☨࿖⊒ߩࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߢߔߴߡ߇⺑᣿ߢ߈ࠆࠊߌߢߪߥ޿ߎߣ߇ಽ߆ࠆޕIMF 㧔2007㧕ߪߘ߁ߒߚ଀ߣߒߡޔ1970 ᐕઍߩ 2 ᐲߦࠊߚࠆࠝࠗ࡞࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢޔ80 ᐕઍೋ㗡ߦฦ ࿖ߢߣࠄࠇߚ࠺ࠖࠬࠗࡦࡈ࡟᡽╷ޔ2000㧙2001 ᐕߩᩣଔਅ⪭ߥߤޔ਎⇇ฦ࿖ߢหᤨ⊛ߦ⊒ ↢ߒߚ᭽ޘߥ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ᜼ߍߡ޿ࠆޕ ߘߒߡޔ⃻࿷ฦ࿖⚻ᷣ߇⋥㕙ߔࠆน⢻ᕈߩ޽ࠆ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߪޔએ਄ߩࠃ߁ߥ․ቯ࿖⊒ߩࠬ ࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐ߿਎⇇౒ㅢߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߦߣߤ߹ࠄߥ޿ޕ․ߦㄭᐕᵈ⋡ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆߩ߇․ ቯࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦ࿕᦭ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߢ޽ࠆޕ᰷Ꮊㅪว㧔EU㧕߿ർ☨⥄↱⾏ᤃදቯ㧔NAFTA㧕ߥ ߤߦઍ⴫ߐࠇࠆࠃ߁ߥ⚻ᷣ⛔ว߇ฦ࿾ߢㅴߺޔߘߩਛߦߪ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ࿾ၞߩࠃ߁ߥޔ೙ᐲߢ ⺃ዉߔࠆߩߢߪߥߊᄙ࿖☋ડᬺߦࠃࠆಽᬺࡀ࠶࠻ࡢ࡯ࠢ߇↢ߺ಴ߒߚ੐ታ਄ߩ⚻ᷣ⛔ว 㧔de-facto integration㧕߽฽߹ࠇࠆޕ߹ߚޔ․ቯࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦ࿕᦭ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣ޿߁ᗧ๧ߢߪޔ ․ቯ࿾ၞߛߌߢߪߥߊޔవㅴ࿖߿ㅜ਄࿖ߣ޿ߞߚ⊒ዷᲑ㓏೎ߩฦࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦ࿕᦭ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ ࠢߣ޿߁ߩ߽⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆߛࠈ߁ޕ଀߃߫ ADB㧔2007㧕ߪ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ࿾ၞߣవㅴ⻉࿖㧔ᣣᧄޔ ☨࿖ޔ᰷Ꮊ㧕ߣ޿߁ 2 ߟߩࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߦᵈ⋡ߒޔ․ߦ 90 ᐕઍᓟඨߩࠕࠫࠕㅢ⽻ෂᯏએ㒠ޔਔ ࠣ࡞࡯ࡊߩ㑆ߩ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩ⋧㑐߇㜞߹ߞߡ޿ࠆὐࠍᜰ៰ߒߡ޿ࠆޕߘߒߡޔߘߩ⢛᥊ߣߒ ߡޔਔࠣ࡞࡯ࡊ㑆ߩ⾏ᤃ㑐ଥߩ✕ኒൻߦട߃ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩㅜ਄࿖஥࿕᦭ߩᄌൻޔߔߥࠊߜޔ 㧔1㧕ㅢ⽻ෂᯏࠍ⚻㛎ߒߚฦ࿖ߩ⚻ᷣ᡽╷߇ࠃࠅⷙᓞߦᴪߞߚౝኈߦᄌൻߒߚߎߣޔ㧔2㧕Ꮏ ⒟㑆ಽᬺࠍㅢߓߡၞౝ⾏ᤃ߇᜛ᄢߒߡ߈ߚߎߣޔߩ 2 ὐࠍ᜼ߍߡ޿ࠆޕ એ਄ߩࠃ߁ߥὐࠍ⠨ᘦߒߚ߁߃ߢ࿖㓙⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩࡔࠞ࠾࠭ࡓࠍಽᨆߔࠆ႐วޔฦ࿖ ⚻ᷣߦᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ࠆⶄᢙߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ࠍ․ቯൻߒޔߘࠇߙࠇߩᓇ㗀ߩᄢዊࠍᲧセᬌ⸛ߔࠆ ᔅⷐ߇಴ߡߊࠆޕ

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ฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ߦ౒ㅢߒߡᓇ㗀ࠍ߽ߚࠄߔẜ࿷ᄌᢙ㧔latent variables㧕ࠍផ⸘ߔࠆ႐วޔ޿ߊ ߟ߆ߩᣇᴺ߇޽ࠆޕᓥ᧪৻⥸⊛ߛߞߚߩ߇ޔ޿ࠊࠁࠆ dynamic factor model ߩᵴ↪ߢ޽ࠆ 㧔Kose et al.㧔2003ޔ2008㧕ޔIMF㧔2007㧕ޔMoneta and Rüffer㧔2009㧕㧕ޕAR ᭴ㅧࠍᜬߟ᭽ޘ ߥࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇ฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ߦᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ࠆߣ޿߁ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍᗐቯߔࠆޕߚߛߒޔߎߩࡕ࠺࡞ ߢߪࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐ߇⼂೎ߢ߈ߥ޿ޕ߹ߚޔ⺃ዉᒻߩផ⸘ߩ߽ߣߢ᛽಴ߐࠇߚࡈࠔࠢ ࠲࡯ߪߘࠇߙࠇ⁛┙ߩޔ޿ࠊࠁࠆ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ㧔structural shocks㧕ߢߪߥ޿ޕฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲ ࡯߇ⶄᢙߩ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩวᚑߢ޽ࠆએ਄ޔ↢↥ᕈߥߤ⃻ታߦ⸘᷹ߐࠇࠆ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣ Ყߴߡޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇ߤߩࠃ߁ߥⷐ࿃ࠍ૕⃻ߒߡ޿ࠆߩ߆ࠍᬌ⸛ߔࠆߎߣߪߢ߈ߥ޿ޕ ߎࠇߦኻߒߡޔAltonji and Ham (1990)ޔNorbin and Schlagenhauf (1996)ޔClark and Shin (2000)ޔ Bernanke et al.㧔2005㧕ޔStock and Watson (2005aޔ2005b) ߥߤߢขࠅ਄ߍࠄࠇޔᧄ Ⓜߢ߽ណ↪ߒߡ޿ࠆߩ߇ޔstructural factor-augmented vector autoregression㧔structural FAVAR㧕 ߣ޿߁ಽᨆᚻᴺߢ޽ࠆޕstructural FAVAR ߪޔdynamic factor model ߦ᭴ㅧ VAR ߩᚻᴺࠍข ࠅ౉ࠇߚ߽ߩߣ૏⟎ߠߌࠄࠇࠆޕฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߪ⋧੕ߦ⁛┙ߥ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߢ޽ࠆߣ޿߁ ೨ឭ߇⟎߆ࠇࠆߚ߼ޔdynamic factor model ߣ㆑޿ޔฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇⃻ታ⊛ߦߤߩࠃ߁ߥⷐ ࿃ࠍᜰߒߡ޿ࠆߩ߆ࠍᬌ⸛ߒ߿ߔ޿ޕ ߎߩᣇᴺߢߪࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߩࡔࠞ࠾࠭ࡓࠍࡕ࠺࡞ߦ᣿␜⊛ߦ⚵ߺㄟ߻ߎߣ߇ߢ߈ ࠆޕߔߥࠊߜޔฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ᄌേߪޔ㧔1㧕ⶄᢙߩ࿖ߦหᤨ⊛ߦ߽ߚࠄߐࠇࠆᓇ㗀ޔ㧔2㧕ฦ࿖ ߏߣߦ⊒↢ߔࠆ idiosyncratic ߥ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢޔߘߒߡޔ㧔3㧕޽ࠆ࿖ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩᓇ㗀߇ᤨ㑆ࠍ ߆ߌߡઁ࿖߳વ߬ߒߡ޿ߊࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐޔߣ޿߁ 3 ⒳㘃ߩⷐ࿃ߦಽ⸃ߐࠇࠆߎߣߦ ߥࠆޕ ᧄⓂߪޔߎߩ structural FAVAR ࠍ૶޿ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ 9 ࠞ࿖㧔㖧࿖ޔบḧޔ㚅᷼ޔࠪࡦࠟࡐ ࡯࡞ޔࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕޔ࠲ࠗޔࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦޔࠗࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕޔਛ࿖㧕ߣᣣᧄޔ☨࿖ޔࠞ࠽࠳ޔ⧷ ࿖ޔ࡙࡯ࡠ࿤ 3 ࠞ࿖㧔࠼ࠗ࠷ޔࡈ࡜ࡦࠬޔࠗ࠲࡝ࠕ㧕ࠍ฽߼ߚว⸘ 16 ࠞ࿖ߩ 90 ᐕઍએ㒠 ߩ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩⷐ࿃ಽᨆࠍⴕߞߚޕవⴕ⎇ⓥߣᲧߴߚᧄⓂߩ․ᓽߪએਅߩࠃ߁ߦᢛℂߢ߈ࠆޕ ╙ 1 ߦޔ࿖㓙⊛᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩಽᨆߢߪߘ߽ߘ߽ޔstructural FAVAR ߩណ↪߇߹ߛ㕖Ᏹߦ㒢ࠄ ࠇߡ޿ࠆޕߎࠇ߹ߢߎߩಽ㊁ߩᤨ♽೉ಽᨆߢߪޔVAR ߿ dynamic factor model ߇ਥᵹߢ޽ ߞߚ1ޕ ╙ 2 ߦ࿖㓙⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᓴⅣಽᨆߦ structural FAVAR ࠍㆡ↪ߒߚవⴕ⎇ⓥߪޔಽᨆኻ⽎ࠍవ ㅴ⻉࿖ߦ㒢ቯߒߡ޿ߚޕߎࠇߦኻߒߡᧄⓂߢߪޔ⋧੕ଐሽᐲࠍ㜞߼ߡ޿ࠆవㅴ⻉࿖ߣ᧲ࠕ ࠫࠕࠍ৻᜝ߒߡಽᨆߒߚޕ వߦㅀߴߚࠃ߁ߦޔstructural FAVAR ߢߪ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ᛽಴ߢ߈ࠆߚ߼ߦޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯

1_{structural FAVAR ߩណ↪଀ߣߒߡ᜼ߍߚ Altonji and Ham (1990)ޔNorbin and Schlagenhauf (1996)ޔClark and}

Shin (2000)ޔ Bernanke et al.㧔2005㧕ޔStock and Watson (2005aޔ2005b)ߩ߁ߜޔBernanke et al.㧔2005㧕ߪ☨ ࿖ߦ߅ߌࠆ㊄Ⲣ᡽╷ߩലᨐߦ㑐ߔࠆಽᨆߢ޽ࠅޔAltonji and Ham (1990)ޔClark and Shin (2000)ߪၮᧄ⊛ߦ ࠞ࠽࠳ޔ☨࿖ౝߩᎺ⚻ᷣࠍන૏ߣߒߡޔ↥ᬺ߿Ꮊޔ࿖ߦ⿠࿃ߔࠆ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩᓇ㗀ࠍ᛽಴ߒߡ޿ࠆޕStock and Watson (2005b)ߪ☨࿖ౝߩᄙᢙߩ⚻ᷣᄌᢙࠍขࠅ਄ߍޔฦᄌᢙߦ౒ㅢߒߡᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ߡ޿ࠆ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ ࠢࠍዉߊߚ߼ߦ structural FAVAR ࠍណ↪ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ࿖㓙⊛ߥ᥊᳇ᓴⅣࠍ࠹࡯ࡑߦ structural FAVAR ࠍᛒߞߡ ޿ࠆߩߪޔNorbin and Schlagenhauf (1996)ޔStock and Watson (2005a㧕ߢ޽ࠆޕ

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ߩਛりࠍ․ቯൻߒ߿ߔ޿ޕߎࠇߦኻߒޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ 10 ࠞ࿖㧔㖧࿖ޔบḧޔ㚅᷼ޔࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯ ࡞ޔࡑ࡟࡯ࠪࠕޔ࠲ࠗޔࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦޔࠗࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕޔਛ࿖ޔᣣᧄ㧕ߩ᥊᳇ᓴⅣⷐ࿃ࠍ dynamic factor modelߢಽᨆߒߚ Moneta and Rüffer㧔2009㧕ߪ㧝ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ࡕ࠺࡞ߢ᛽಴ߒߚ໑৻ߩ ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦኻߒߡޔ⾗Ḯଔᩰ߿☨㊄೑ޔవㅴ⻉࿖ߩᚑ㐳₸ޔ౞࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻ߥߤ᭽ޘߥ♽ ೉ࠍኻ⟎ߐߖޔ୘ޘߩ⋧㑐ࠍ࠴ࠚ࠶ࠢߒߡ޿ࠆޕ᛽಴ߐࠇߚࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇⺃ዉᒻߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ ࠢߢ޽ࠆએ਄ޔ⋧੕ߦ⁛┙ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ೨ឭߣߒߡߥߐࠇࠆߴ߈ޔ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߦኻߔࠆⶄᢙ ߩⷐ࿃ߩነਈ₸ߩᲧセᬌ⸛ߪ㔍ߒߊߥࠆޕMoneta and Rüffer㧔2009㧕ߢߪޔ↢↥ᕈߥߤߩ

᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ㑐ଥᕈ߽ᬌ⸛ߐࠇߡ޿ߥ޿2ޕ

ᧄⓂߩಽᨆߩ╙ 3 ߩ․ᓽߪޔߎߩ↢↥ᕈߦߟ޿ߡޔోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈ㧔TFP㧕ߦട߃ޔ᧲ࠕ ࠫࠕߩᎿ⒟㑆ಽᬺߦ઻ߞߡᵴ⊒ߦ੤ᤃߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ⾗ᧄ⽷╬ߩᯏ᪾⸳஻ߦᵈ⋡ߒޔห⽷ߦ૕ ൻߒߚᛛⴚ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢޔߔߥࠊߜޔޟᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ㧔investment-specific technological change㧕ޠ㧔Greenwood et al.㧔1997ޔ2000㧕㧕ߩᓇ㗀ߦߟ޿ߡᬌ⸛ߒߚὐߢ޽ࠆޕ

ᧄⓂߢᓧࠄࠇߚਥߥಽᨆ⚿ᨐࠍⷐ⚂ߔࠆߣએਅߩࠃ߁ߦߥࠆޕ ᧲ࠕࠫࠕޔవㅴ⻉࿖ߩ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߪߣ߽ߦޔ2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ߆ࠄߩࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ଔᩰ਄᣹ ߩᓇ㗀ࠍᒝߊฃߌߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ಽ߆ߞߚޕ2008 ᐕᓟඨ߆ࠄ㗼࿷ൻߒߚ☨࿖⊒ߩޟ਎⇇หᤨ ਇᴫޠࠃࠅ೨߆ࠄޔ਎⇇⊛ߦ᥊᳇ߩㅪേᕈ߇㜞߹ߞߡ޿ࠆὐ߇ᜰ៰ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ߇3ޔߎߩ⾗ Ḯଔᩰ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇ㅪേᕈ਄᣹ߩ৻࿃ߦߥߞߡ޿ࠆน⢻ᕈ߇ᒝ޿ޕ߹ߚޔ೙ᐲ⊛ߥ⛔วࠍᨐ ߚߒߚ᰷Ꮊࠃࠅ߽᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩᣇ߇ޔ࿾ၞⷐ࿃ߩᨐߚߔᓎഀ߇ᄢ߈޿ߎߣ߇᣿ࠄ߆ߦߥߞߚޕ ห࿾ၞߩᎿ⒟㑆ಽᬺࠍㅢߓߚᛛⴚߩ⫾Ⓧ߿ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕฦ࿖ߩャ಴┹੎ജߣኒធߥ㑐ଥࠍᜬ ߟ౞࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻ߩേะ߇⢛᥊ߦ޽ࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕ৻ᣇޔవㅴ⻉࿖ߪోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈ㧔TFP) ߿㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ޿ࠆޕ ᧄⓂߩ᭴ᚑߪએਅߩࠃ߁ߦߥࠆޕᰴ▵ߢߪᧄⓂ߇ណ↪ߒߚ structural FAVAR ߩ․ᓽߣ⸃ ᴺߦߟ޿ߡ⸃⺑ߔࠆޕ⛯ߊ 3 ▵ߢಽᨆߩ⚿ᨐࠍႎ๔ߒޔᦨᓟߩ 4 ▵ߢಽᨆ⚿ᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ࠆޕ

2_{Moneta and Rüffer}

㧔2009㧕ߢߪ㊄Ⲣ㕙ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߦߟ޿ߡ߽ౝ↢ᄌᢙߢ޽ࠆ☨㊄೑߿ᩣଔߣߩ㑐ଥᕈࠍ⏕ ⹺ߒߡ޿ࠆߦㆊ߉ߕޔ᭴ㅧ VAR ߢ᛽಴ߒߚ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣߩ㑐ଥߦߟ޿ߡߪ⼏⺰ߐࠇߡ޿ߥ޿ޕMoneta and Rüffer㧔2009㧕ߩ⽸₂ߪޔࠕࠫࠕ᥊᳇ߩㅪ㑐ᕈߦ㑐ߔࠆవⴕ⎇ⓥ߇ 2 ࿖㑆ߩ᥊᳇ߩㅪേᕈߣ޿߁ⷰὐ ߆ࠄಽᨆߐࠇߡ߈ߚߩߦኻߒߡ㧔Crosby㧔2003㧕ޔShin and Wang㧔2004㧕ޔShin and Sohn㧔2006㧕㧕ޔdynamic factor modelࠍࠕࠫࠕ࿾ၞߦㆡ↪ߒޔⶄᢙߩ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ᓴⅣ߆ࠄ߆ࠄ౒ㅢ࿃ሶࠍ᛽಴ߔࠆߣ޿߁ࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴ ࠍߣߞߚὐߦ޽ࠆޕ 3 ADB㧔2007㧕ޔ┻ౝ㧔2006㧕ߪ 2000 ᐕઍߦ౉ߞߡ߆ࠄޔవㅴ⻉࿖ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ࠍ൮᜝ߒߚ਎⇇⊛ߥⷙ ᮨߢ᥊᳇ߩㅪേᕈ߇㜞߹ߞߡ޿ࠆὐࠍᜰ៰ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ࿖㓙⊛ߥ᥊᳇ߩㅪേᕈߩ㜞߹ࠅߪᓥ᧪ޔ㧔1㧕GDP ᚑ㐳₸ߩ⋧㑐ߩ㜞߹ࠅޔ㧔2㧕࿖㓙⊛ߦⷰኤߐࠇࠆหᚑ㐳₸ߩಽᢔߩૐਅޔߣ޿߁㧞ߟߩᜰᮡ߆ࠄᬌ⸛ߐࠇ ߡ߈ߚޕIMF㧔2007㧕ߪ 1960 ᐕઍએ㒠ߩޔࠃࠅ㐳ᦼߩⷞὐ߆ࠄޔߎ߁ߒߚᜰᮡߦၮߠ޿ߚవⴕ⎇ⓥߩ⚿ ᨐࠍࠨ࡯ࡌࠗߒߡ߅ࠅޔㅪേᕈ਄᣹ߩ⢛᥊ߣߒߡߪ⾏ᤃ߿ᛩ⾗ߩᵴ⊒ൻࠍ᜼ߍߡ޿ࠆޕ

t1

v

t

where

v

t

a

N

(

0 ,

O

(

V

_f₁

,...

V

_fk

)

ޔ

E

(

H

_t

H

_tc

)

diag

(

V

_H₁

,...

V

_H_n

)

ޔ

k

ߪࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯

f

_tߩ ᢙߢ޽ࠆޕฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇ฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ߦ෸߷ߔᓇ㗀ᐲࠍ޽ࠄࠊߔଥᢙࠍ෼ኈߒߚ

O

߇ࡈࠔ ࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬ㧔factor loadings㧕ߢ޽ࠆ4ޕ એ਄߆ࠄಽ߆ࠆࠃ߁ߦޔฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߪ⋧੕ߦ⁛┙ߩ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߢ޽ࠆߣ޿߁೨ឭ߇ ⟎߆ࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ

H

_tߪฦ࿖⥄りߩ idiosyncratic ߥ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ޽ࠄࠊߔޕߒߚ߇ߞߡޔฦ࿖ߩ ᥊᳇ߩᄌേߪಽᢔಽ⸃ߦࠃࠅޔ࿖㓙⊛ߥᓇ㗀ࠍฦ࿖ߦหᤨߦ෸߷ߔฦ⒳ߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩല ᨐߣ⥄࿖ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩലᨐޔߘߒߡޔઁ࿖߆ࠄߩࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߦⷐ࿃ಽ⸃ߐࠇࠆߎ ߣߦߥࠆ5ޕ ߥ߅ޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬߦኻߒߡㆊ೾⼂೎ߩ೙⚂߇⺖ߐࠇࠆ㧔2㧕ᑼߦ߅޿ 4_{ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬࠍ⼂೎ߔࠆߚ߼ߦޔߎߎߢߪ}_Var _f _I t) ( ߣ޿߁೙⚂ࠍ⟎޿ ߡផ⸘ߒߚޕ 5 ࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߩ․ቯߪޔ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇ઁ࿖ߦᵄ෸ߔࠆ߹ߢߦ߆߆ࠆᤨ㑆ߦଐሽߔࠆὐߦ⇐ᗧߔࠆᔅ ⷐ߇޽ࠆޕᧄⓂߢߪ྾ඨᦼ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ૶ߞߡಽᨆߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔ଀߃߫ޔ޽ࠆ࿖ߢ⊒↢ߒߚ idiosyncratic ߥࠪ ࡚࠶ࠢߩᓇ㗀߇ޔ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇⿠߈ߚᒰ⹥྾ඨᦼౝߦ৻᳇ߦ࿖㓙⊛ߦᵄ෸ߒߚࠃ߁ߥ႐วߪޔᧄⓂߩࡕ࠺࡞ ߢߪޔidiosyncratic ߥ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ㧗ࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߢߪߥߊޔߎࠇࠍ࿖㓙⊛ߥࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣ⹺⼂ߔࠆߎ ߣߦߥࠆޕ

(8)

ߡࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩᢙޔ

k

ߩ᳿ቯߪޔዕᐲᲧᬌቯ㧔ㆊ೾⼂೎࠹ࠬ࠻㧕ߢⴕ߁ޕ߹ߚޔẜ࿷ᄌᢙ ࠍ฽߻㧔2㧕ᑼߩផ⸘ߦߪޔߎ߁ߒߚ႐วߩ᦭↪ߥផ⸘ᣇᴺߣߒߡ⍮ࠄࠇࠆޟ㧱㧹ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝ ࠭ࡓޠࠍ↪޿ࠆޕ EM ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓߪẜ࿷ᄌᢙࠍ฽߻⏕₸ࡕ࠺࡞ߦߟ޿ߡᦨዕផቯࠍⴕ߁ߚ߼ߩᚻᴺߢ޽ ࠆޕⷰኤ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ߽ߣߦቢో࠺࡯࠲ߩኻᢙዕᐲߩ᧦ઙઃᦼᓙ୯ࠍ᳞߼ࠆ E㧔Expectation㧕 ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊޔߘࠇࠍᦨᄢൻߔࠆ M㧔Maximization㧕ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߣ޿߁ 2 ߟߩࠬ࠹࠶ࡊࠍ➅ࠅ㄰ ߔߎߣߢޔࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߦ㑐ߔࠆዪᚲᦨㆡ⸃ࠍᓧࠆޕDempster et al.㧔1977㧕ߪޔߎߩ➅ࠅ㄰ ߒ⸘▚ߩࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓߦ߅޿ߡޔኻᢙዕᐲ߇න⺞ߦჇടߔࠆߎߣࠍ␜ߒߚޕ ᧄⓂߢߪޔቢో࠺࡯࠲ߩಽᏓߪᱜⷙಽᏓࠍᗐቯߔࠆޕߎߩࠃ߁ߥᜰᢙಽᏓᣖߦዻߔࠆኒ ᐲ㑐ᢙߩ႐วޔEM ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓߩ߁ߜߩ M ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߪ⋭⇛ߢ߈ޔ৻ߟ೨ߩ E ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߢ ⸘▚ߐࠇߚචಽ⛔⸘㊂ࠍߘߩ߹߹૶ߞߡᰴߩ E ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߦ߅޿ߡኻᢙዕᐲߩ᧦ઙઃᦼᓙ୯ ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߎߣ߇ߢ߈ࠆޕߘߒߡޔߎߩኻᢙዕᐲߩ᧦ઙઃᦼᓙ୯ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߎߣߪޔⷰኤ࠺࡯ ࠲ࠍ೨ឭߦߒߚචಽ⛔⸘㊂ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߎߣߣ╬ߒߊߥࠆ6ޕ ࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ࠍ᳞߼ࠆߚ߼ߦචಽ⛔⸘㊂ࠍ➅ࠅ㄰ߒ⸘▚ߔࠆ EM ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓߩౕ૕⊛ߥ ᚻ㗅ߪએਅߩㅢࠅߢ޽ࠆ7ޕ ਄⸥ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ೨ឭߣߒߚ EM ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓߩ E ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߢߪޔ㧔1㧕ᑼߩⷰኤ࠺࡯࠲

Y

tߩ ARࡕ࠺࡞ߩ⺋Ꮕ㗄

v

tߦၮߠ߈ޔ઒⸳୯ߣߒߡ⸳ቯߔࠆࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲

T

s

(

O

(s)ޔ

HH

(s)

(

H

tߩ ಽᢔ

))

ߦኻᔕߒߚචಽ⛔⸘㊂

f

_t₍_s₎

f

_t₍c_s₎ࠍ▚಴ߔࠆ㧔ࠞ࠶ࠦౝߩ

s

ߪ➅ࠅ㄰ߒ⸘▚ߩ࿁ᢙ㧕ޕ ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬߩ⼂೎ߩߚ߼ߦ

Var

(

f

_t

)

I

ߣ޿߁೙⚂᧦ઙࠍ ⟎޿ߡ޿ࠆߚ߼ޔ㧔2㧕ᑼࠃࠅᤨ♽೉࠺࡯࠲

f

_t_{( s}₎ߩផ⸘୯

f

_t_{( s}₎ࠍޔ

f

t(s)

O

(s)

c c c c ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (

(

)

HH

O

㧔3㧕 ᰴߦޔߎߩ⚿ᨐࠍ૶ߞߡޔᰴߩ E ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߦ࿁ߐࠇࠆ

O

₍_s₁₎ࠍޔ㧔2㧕ᑼߦ߅ߌࠆ࿁Ꮻଥ ᢙࠍ᳞߼ࠆⷐ㗔ߢᰴߩࠃ߁ߦ⸘▚ߔࠆޕ c ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 ( s t s t s t t s

f

v

O

㧔4㧕 6_EM ࠕ࡞ࠧ࡝࠭ࡓߩෳ⠨ᢥ₂ߪᢙᄙ޿߇ޔߎߩᚻᴺࠍೋ߼ߡ⚫੺ߒߚ Dempster et al.㧔1977㧕ߩ߶߆ߦޔ ታ㓙ߩㆡ↪੐଀߿ᔕ↪ޔ᜛ᒛᚻᴺߦߟ޿ߡ⚫੺ߒߡ߅ࠅޔታ↪ߩߚ߼ߦ᦭↪ߥ߽ߩߣߒߡޔዊ⷏ઁ㧔2008㧕 ߇޽ࠆޕ

7 _{ផ⸘ߩߚ߼ߩࡊࡠࠣ࡜ࡓߪޔStock and Watson (2005a)ߩࡊࡠࠣ࡜ࡓࠍᡷᄌߒߡ૞ᚑߒߚޕၮᧄߣߥߞߚ}

Stock and Watson (2005a)ߩ Gauss ࡌ ࡯ ࠬ ߩ ࡊ ࡠ ࠣ ࡜ ࡓ ߪ એ ਅ ߩ ࠕ ࠼ ࡟ ࠬ ߢ ౏ 㐿 ߐ ࠇ ߡ ޿ ࠆ 㧔http://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/publi.html㧕ޕߥ߅ޔᧄⓂߩࡊࡠࠣ࡜ࡓ߽ޔ⺒⠪ߩ᳞߼ߦᔕߓߡឭଏߔ ࠆޕ

(9)

HH

₍_s₁₎ߪޔᰴߩ㧔5㧕ᑼࠍ⸘▚ߔࠆޕ ₍s₁₎

1 (

v

t

v

tc

v

t

f

t₍s₎ ₍s₁₎

)

T

O

HH

㧔5㧕 ᰴߩ E ࠬ࠹࠶ࡊ

(

s

1 )

ߩචಽ⛔⸘㊂㧔

f

_t₍_s₁₎

f

_t₍c_s₁₎㧕ߪޔ೨ߩࠬ࠹࠶ࡊߩ⸘▚߆ࠄ᳞߼ࠄ ࠇߚ਄⸥ߩ

T

_s₁

t(s)

O

(s)

/

I

T

s t s t

c ) ( ) ( ߆ࠄ

O

( s)ߦ╬ߒߊߥࠅޔ㧔5㧕ᑼߪ

HH

ߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬޔߔߥࠊߜޔฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇ⶄ ᢙߩ࿖ߦਈ߃ࠆᓇ㗀ᐲว޿ࠍ޽ࠄࠊߔࡄ࡜ࡔ࡯࠲ߩផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚޕផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍ⷗ࠆ ߣޔᄙߊߩଥᢙߦߟ޿ߡޔ1 㧑ߩ᦭ᗧ᳓Ḱߩ߽ߣߢଥᢙ㧩0 ߩ᫈ή઒⺑߇᫈ළߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ13ޕ ࿑ 3㧙1ޔ3㧙2 ߪޔ᛽಴ߒߚ 8 ߟߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩ߁ߜޔ਎⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣਥߥ࿾ၞࡈࠔ ࠢ࠲࡯ߢ޽ࠆ࡙࡯ࡠ࿤ޔࠕࠫࠕࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩᤨ♽೉ߩേ߈ࠍ␜ߒߚ߽ߩߢ޽ࠆޕߘࠇߙࠇ ߩ․ᓽࠍ⏕⹺ߔࠆߣޔ߹ߕޔ਎⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߪ 1998 ᐕߣ 2008 ᐕߦᄢ߈ߥ⪭ߜㄟߺࠍ␜ߒ ߡ޿ࠆ㧔࿑ 3㧙1㧕ޕ98 ᐕߪࠕࠫࠕㅢ⽻ෂᯏߩ࠲ࠗࡒࡦࠣߢ޽ࠅޔ㔡Ḯ࿾ߢ޽ࠆࠕࠫࠕࡈࠔ ࠢ࠲࡯߽߽ߜࠈࠎᄢ߈ߊ⪭ߜㄟࠎߢ޿ࠆ߇㧔࿑ 3㧙2㧕ޔหෂᯏ߇ࠕࠫࠕ࿾ၞߦ㒢ቯߐࠇߥ 12 _{ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ࠍჇ߿ߒߡ޿ߊ㓙ߩ㗅⇟ࠍᄌ߃ߡ߽ዕᐲᲧᬌቯߩ⚿ᨐߪᄌࠊࠄߥ޿ޕ} 13 _{ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬߩ╓ภ᧦ઙߪᔅߕߒ߽ࡊ࡜ࠬߦ㒢ቯߐࠇࠆࠊߌߢߪߥ޿ޕ}_{ᓟㅀߔࠆࠃ߁ߦޔ} ࡙࡯ࡠ࿤ޔNIESޔASEANޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ+☨࿖ޔᣣᧄࠍ㒰ߊవㅴ⻉࿖ߩฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߪޔ㧔᥊᳇ᓴⅣ߳ߩࡊ࡜ ࠬߩലᨐ߇ᗐቯߐࠇࠆ㧕↢↥ᕈ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣߩ⋧㑐߇⏕⹺ߢ߈ߥ߆ߞߚߚ߼ߦޔ╓ภ᧦ઙ㧔଀߃߫ NIES ࡈ ࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦ߅ߌࠆ㖧࿖߿ ASEAN ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦ߅ߌࠆ࠲ࠗߩࡑࠗ࠽ࠬ㧕ߩᅷᒰᕈߦߟ޿ߡ್ᢿߔࠆߩߪ㔍 ߒ޿ޕ৻ᣇޔᰴ▵ߦ߅޿ߡ↢↥ᕈߣߩ⋧㑐߇⏕⹺ߐࠇߚవㅴ⻉࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ޔࠕࠫࠕࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦߟ޿ߡ ৻ㇱߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬߩ╓ภ߇ࡑࠗ࠽ࠬߦផ⸘ߐࠇߚὐߦߟ޿ߡߪޔน⢻ᕈߣߒߡޔએਅߩ ࠃ߁ߥⷐ࿃߇⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆޕవㅴ⻉࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦኻߔࠆᣣᧄߩࡑࠗ࠽ࠬߪޔᣣᧄ߇ផ⸘ᦼ㑆ߩ೨ඨߦ߅޿ ߡઁ࿖ߣ⇣ߥࠆ㐳ᦼ஗ṛࠍ⚻㛎ߒߚߎߣޔࠕࠫࠕࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦ߅ߌࠆบḧߩࡑࠗ࠽ࠬޔ᦭ᗧߥ⚿ᨐ߇ᓧࠄ ࠇߥ߆ߞߚࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ߦߟ޿ߡߪޔASEAN ߩᛛⴚ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍᲧセ⊛ᒝߊ෻ᤋߒߚࠕࠫࠕ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣ NIESߩᛛⴚ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇⇣ߥࠆߎߣޔߥߤߢ޽ࠆޕ

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޿਎⇇ⷙᮨߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߛߞߚߎߣࠍ޽ࠄࠊߒߡ޿ࠆޕ08 ᐕߪᰴ▵ߢ␜ߔࠃ߁ߦ਎⇇ⷙᮨߢ ߩࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ଔᩰߩᕆ㛛ߩᓇ㗀ࠍฃߌߡ޿ࠆޕ࡙࡯ࡠ࿤ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߪ 99 ᐕޔ2006 ᐕߦ਄ ᣹௑ะࠍ␜ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ99 ᐕߪ⛔৻ㅢ⽻࡙࡯ࡠ߇ዉ౉ߐࠇߚᐕߢ޽ࠅޔ06 ᐕߪㆊ෰ᢙᐕࠍ߆ ߌߚഭ௛Ꮢ႐ߩ᭴ㅧᡷ㕟߇ታࠍ⚿߮ᆎ߼ޔන૏ഭ௛ࠦࠬ࠻ߩિ߮ߩ㊰ൻޔഭ௛㔛ⷐߩ᜛ᄢ ߇ߪߞ߈ࠅߒߡ߈ߚᤨᦼߣ㊀ߥࠆޕ ⴫㧟㧙㧞 ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯࡮ࡠ࡯࠺ࠖࡦࠣࠬߩផ⸘⚿ᨐ 㩷㩷 ਎⇇㩷䊡䊷䊨࿤㩷䌎䌉䌅䌓㩷䌁䌓䌅䌁䌎 వㅴ⻉࿖ ᧲䉝䉳䉝 ᧲䉝䉳䉝㩷䋫☨࿖㩷 ᣣᧄ䉕㒰䈒㩷 వㅴ⻉࿖㩷㖧࿖㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㪇㪎㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪊㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪎㪏㪁㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪌㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷䊙䊧䊷䉲䉝㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪎㪊㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪊㪁㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪈㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷䉺䉟㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪈㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪐㪇㪁㪁㪁㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪐㪍㪁㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪌㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 บḧ㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪎㪈㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪊㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪈㪁㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪇㪍㪐㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷䉲䊮䉧䊘䊷䊦㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪏㪐㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪐㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪍㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪈㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪋㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪋㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪌㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷䊐䉞䊥䊏䊮㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪉㪁㪁㪁㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪎㪁㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪍㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪍㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪍㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷䉟䊮䊄䊈䉲䉝㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪉㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪋㪁㪁㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪍㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪊㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㚅᷼㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪎㪏㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪏㪋㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪌㪁㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪊㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪉㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 ਛ࿖㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪌㪈㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪍㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 ᣣᧄ㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪊㪋㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪏㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 ☨࿖㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪍㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪉㪁㪁㪁㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪉㪁㪁㪁㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪈㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷䉦䊅䉻㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪐㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪎㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪋㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷䊐䊤䊮䉴㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪎㪁㪁㪁㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪋㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷䊄䉟䉿㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪇㪁㪁㪁㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪊㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪍㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪉㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪌㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷䉟䉺䊥䉝㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪌㪁㪁㪁㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪉㩷㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪉㪎㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪍㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪏㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷 ⧷࿖㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪏㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪈㪏㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪌㩷㪁㪁㪁㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷䋨ᵈ䋩਄Ბ䈏ଥᢙ䇮ਅᲑ䈏ᮡḰ⺋Ꮕ䇯㪁㪁㪁㪈䋦᦭ᗧ᳓Ḱ䇮㪁㪁㪌䋦᦭ᗧ᳓Ḱ䇮㪁㪈㪇䋦᦭ᗧ᳓Ḱ㩷 ࿑㧟㧙㧝 ਎⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ 㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 ࿑㧟㧙㧞 ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ࡮࡙࡯ࡠ࿤ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ 㩷㩷 ᰴߦޔએ਄ߩផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍ〯߹߃ޔࠗࡦࡄ࡞ࠬᔕ╵ߣޔߘࠇߦၮߠߊಽᢔಽ⸃ࠍⴕߞߚޕ 㪄㪊㪄㪉㪄㪈㪇㪈㪉㪊㪈㪐㪐㪊㪑㪉㪈㪐㪐㪋㪑㪋㪈㪐㪐㪍㪑㪉㪈㪐㪐㪎㪑㪋㪈㪐㪐㪐㪑㪉㪉㪇㪇㪇㪑㪋㪉㪇㪇㪉㪑㪉㪉㪇㪇㪊㪑㪋㪉㪇㪇㪌㪑㪉㪉㪇㪇㪍㪑㪋㪉㪇㪇㪏㪑㪉䊡䊷䊨࿤ ᧲䉝䉳䉝㪄㪋㪄㪊㪄㪉㪄㪈㪇㪈㪉㪊㪈㪐㪐㪊㪑㪉㪈㪐㪐㪋㪑㪋㪈㪐㪐㪍㪑㪉㪈㪐㪐㪎㪑㪋㪈㪐㪐㪐㪑㪉㪉㪇㪇㪇㪑㪋㪉㪇㪇㪉㪑㪉㪉㪇㪇㪊㪑㪋㪉㪇㪇㪌㪑㪉㪉㪇㪇㪍㪑㪋㪉㪇㪇㪏㪑㪉

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ฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ߩᄌേߪಽᢔಽ⸃ߦࠃࠅޔ࿖㓙⊛ߥᓇ㗀ࠍ⹥ᒰߔࠆ࿖ߦหᤨߦ෸߷ߔ 8 ⒳㘃ߩ ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩലᨐߣ⥄࿖ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢޔઁ࿖ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߆ࠄߩࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߩว⸘ 10 ߩⷐ࿃ߦಽ⸃ߐࠇࠆޕ ⴫ 3㧙3 ߇ಽᢔಽ⸃ߩ⚿ᨐߢ޽ࠆޕ⴫ᦨ਄Ბߦߪ 10 ߩⷐ࿃߇ਗ߱ޕ❑ߦߪޔฦ࿖ߏߣߦ ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇޽ߞߚᒰᦼޔ4 ྾ඨᦼ㧔1 ᐕ㧕ᓟޔ8 ྾ඨᦼ㧔2 ᐕ㧕ᓟߩ 3 ᤨὐߦ߅ߌࠆฦⷐ࿃ ߩᓇ㗀ഀว߇⴫␜ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆ㧔ⴕㇱಽߩ 10 ߩⷐ࿃ߩነਈഀวߩว⸘߇㧝㧕ޕ ⴫㧟㧙㧟㧤ߟߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐޔ⥄࿖࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩಽᢔಽ⸃ 㩷㩷㩷㩷 ਎⇇㩷䊡䊷䊨࿤㩷 ᧲䉝䉳䉝㪥㪠㪜㪪㩷㪘㪪㪜㪘㪥 వㅴ⻉࿖ ᧲䉝䉳䉝䋫☨࿖ ᣣᧄ䉕㒰䈒 వㅴ⻉࿖㩷䉴䊏䊦䉥䊷䊋䊷ലᨐ㩷 ⥄࿖ⷐ࿃㩷㖧࿖㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪌㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪉㩷㪇㪅㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪌㪌㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪎㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪍㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪌㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷䊙䊧䊷䉲䉝㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪊㪌㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪍㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪋㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪋㪌㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪐㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㩷䉺䉟㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪌㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪐㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪉㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪎㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪎㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪊㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪍㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪐㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷 บḧ㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪋㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪊㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪎㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪊㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷䉲䊮䉧䊘䊷䊦㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪊㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪏㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪋㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㪇㪅㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪐㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪋㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪌㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪊㩷䊐䉞䊥䊏䊮㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪋㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪋㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪐㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪊㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪍㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪍㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪋㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪐㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷䉟䊮䊄䊈䉲䉝㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪈㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪎㪉㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪊㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪏㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪋㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷㚅᷼㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪊㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㪇㪅㪋㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪋㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪌㩷㪇㪅㪈㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪋㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪐㩷㪇㪅㪇㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪌㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷 ਛ࿖㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪉㪏㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪎㪇㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪋㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪐㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪌㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪍㩷 ᣣᧄ㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪉㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪍㪉㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪋㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪈㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪊㪏㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪌㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷 ☨࿖㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪍㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㪇㪅㪇㪍㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪏㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪊㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪊㩷㪇㪅㪈㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪌㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪊㪍㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪉㩷㪇㪅㪇㪐㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪌㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪍㩷䉦䊅䉻㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪍㪐㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪌㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪊㪌㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪌㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪌㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪊㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪊㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪏㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷䊐䊤䊮䉴㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪊㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪐㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪋㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪉㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪋㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪋㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷䊄䉟䉿㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪍㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪌㪊㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪊㪉㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪋㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪊㪋㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪎㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪍㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷䉟䉺䊥䉝㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪋㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪍㪌㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪉㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪈㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪇㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪇㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪉㪌㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪋㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪉㩷㩷㪇㪅㪋㪈㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪏㩷 ⧷࿖㩷㪈㩷㪇㪅㪉㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪐㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪊㪐㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪋㩷㪇㪅㪋㪊㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪉㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪏㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪏㩷㪇㪅㪋㪉㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪇㩷㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪍㩷

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⴫ 3㧙3 ߆ࠄߪએਅߩࠃ߁ߥ․ᓽ߇ⷰኤߢ߈ࠆޕ㧔1㧕వㅴ⻉࿖ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕฦ࿖ߣ߽ߦ਎ ⇇ⷐ࿃ߩᓇ㗀ࠍᒝߊฃߌߡ޿ࠆޕ㧔2㧕᧲ࠕࠫࠕ࿾ၞߦ࿕᦭ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ㧔᧲ࠕࠫࠕࡈࠔࠢ࠲ ࡯ޔ޽ࠆ޿ߪޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧗☨࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯㧕ߩᓇ㗀߇Ყセ⊛ᒝ޿ޕ㧔3㧕వㅴ⻉࿖ߢߪᄙߊ ߩ႐วޔ⥄࿖ⷐ࿃߇ᄢ߈޿ޕ㧔4㧕⚻ᷣ⛔ว߇ㅴ߻࡙࡯ࡠ 3 ࠞ࿖ߦߟ޿ߡߪ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߆ࠄ㧝 ᐕ⚻ㆊᓟߦߪ࡙࡯ࡠ࿤ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩᓇ㗀ߪ߶ߣࠎߤᶖ߃ߡߒ߹޿ޔ࿾ၞⷐ࿃ߩᓇ㗀߇ᜬ⛯ ߔࠆ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߣߪ⁁ᴫ߇⇣ߥࠆ14ޕ 㧔3㧕ߦ㑐ㅪߒߡޔ⥄࿖ⷐ࿃Ყ₸ߣផ⸘ᦼ㑆ߩታ⾰ャ಴ߩ྾ඨᦼᐔဋિ߮₸ߣߩ㑐ଥࠍ ਛ࿖ࠍ㒰ߊ 15 ࠞ࿖ߦߟ޿ߡ࠴ࠚ࠶ࠢߒߚߣߎࠈޔਔ⠪ߪᒝ޿ㅒ⋧㑐ࠍ␜ߒߚ㧔⋧㑐ଥᢙ㧩㧙0.60㧕ޕ⥄࿖ⷐ࿃ߩ⋧ኻ⊛ᄢ߈ߐߪㅢᏱޔャ಴౉ࠍ GDP ߢ㒰ߒߚޟኻᄖ㐿᡼ᐲޠߣ㑐ଥ ઃߌߡ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ႐ว߇ᄙ޿߇ޔኻᄖ㐿᡼ᐲߣ⥄࿖ⷐ࿃Ყ₸ߩ㑆ߦߪ᣿⏕ߥ⋧㑐㑐ଥߪુ ߃ߥ߆ߞߚ15ޕ 3.2.2 ᛽಴ߒߚࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߪ૗ࠍ⴫ߒߡ޿ࠆߩ߆ ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ᛽಴ߔࠆ structural FAVAR ߢߪޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩ⸘᷹ߩᰴߩᲑ㓏ߣߒߡޔ ߘࠇࠄߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇⃻ታߦߤߩࠃ߁ߥⷐ࿃ࠍ෻ᤋߒߚ߽ߩߥߩ߆߇໧ࠊࠇࠆޕಽᨆߩኻ ⽎ߣߥࠆߩߪޔࠬࡇ࡞ࠝ࡯ࡃ࡯ലᨐߣ⥄࿖ߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ㒰ߊ਄⸥ 8 ߟߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߢ޽ࠆޕ

వㅴ 7 ࠞ࿖ߦߟ޿ߡಽᨆߒߚ Stock and Watson㧔2005a㧕ߢߪޔߎࠇࠄߩ࿖ߦ౒ㅢߔࠆ਎ ⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߒߡផ⸘ߐࠇߚ♽೉ߣޔේᴤߥߤߩ⾗Ḯଔᩰޔ↢↥ᕈޔ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߥߤ ߩ᭴ㅧ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣߩ⋧㑐㑐ଥࠍ⏕⹺ߒߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔ޿ߕࠇ߽᣿⏕ߥ㑐ଥᕈߪ⏕⹺ߢ߈ߥ߆ߞ ߚޕᧄⓂߢߪޔStock and Watson㧔2005a㧕ࠍෳ⠨ߦߒߥ߇ࠄޔ᛽಴ߐࠇߚࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ ⋧㑐߇ᗐቯߐࠇࠆޔએਅߩ 6 ᄌᢙߦߟ޿ߡᬌ⸛ߒߚޕ 6ᄌᢙߪޔ㧔1㧕ࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯㧔ේᴤޔ⍹὇ޔᄤὼࠟࠬ㧕ଔᩰ㧔2㧕㘩ᢱޔ㋶‛ߥߤޔࠛࡀ࡞ ࠡ࡯ࠍ㒰ߊ䈠䈱ઁ৻ᰴ↥ຠ䈱ᐔဋଔᩰ䋨㪊䋩㊄Ⲣ䉲䊢䉾䉪䋨㪋䋩ฬ⋡䊔䊷䉴䈱౞䊄䊦ὑᦧ䊧䊷䊃䋨㪌䋩 ోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈ䋨㪍䋩ᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ䋭䈪䈅䉎䇯䈇䈝䉏䉅೨ᦼᲧ䋨䋨㪈䋩䋨㪉䋩䈲ቄ▵⺞ᢛᷣ䉂♽೉ 䉕૶↪䋩䉕⸘▚䈚䇮䉴䊏䊦䉥䊷䊋䊷ലᨐ䈫⥄࿖䈱䉲䊢䉾䉪䉕㒰䈇䈢㪏䈧䈱䊐䉜䉪䉺䊷䈱೨ᦼᲧ䈫䈱 ⋧㑐ଥᢙ䉕⸘▚䈚䈢䇯䈭䈍䇮એਅ䈱ᄌᢙ䈱૞ᚑ䈮䈲䇮㪠㪤㪝䈱㪠㫅㫋㪼㫉㫅㪸㫋㫀㫆㫅㪸㫃㩷㪝㫀㫅㪸㫅㪺㫀㪸㫃㩷㪪㫋㪸㫋㫀㫊㫋㫀㪺㫊䋨㪠㪝㪪䋩䈮ട䈋䇮㪛㪩㪠 ࿖㓙⚻ᷣ㊄Ⲣ䊂䊷䉺䊔䊷䉴䋨☨ 㪞㫃㫆㪹㪸㫃㩷㪠㫅㫊㫀㪾㪿㫋 ␠䋩䇮㪚㪜㪠㪚㩷㪻㪸㫋㪸㪹㪸㫊㪼㫊䋨㪚㪜㪠㪚㩷㪛㪸㫋㪸㩷㪚㫆㫄㫇㪸㫅㫐㩷㪣㫋㪻㪅䋩䇮㪧㪼㫅㫅㩷㪮㫆㫉㫃㪻㩷㪫㪸㪹㫃㪼䋨㫍㪼㫉㫊㫀㫆㫅㩷㪍㪅㪉䋩䉕೑↪䈚䈢䇯㩷䋨㪈䋩䋨㪉䋩䈲⾗Ḯଔᩰ䉲䊢䉾䉪䈱ઍℂᄌᢙ䈪䈅䉍䇮䊂䊷䉺䈲㪠㪤㪝䈱㪠㪝㪪䈎䉌౉ᚻ䈚䈢䇯㩷㧔3㧕ߩ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߦߟ޿ߡߪޔᧄⓂߢߪ Christiano et al.㧔1997㧕ߩᣇᴺߦ᜚ߞߚ16ޕ 14 ࡙࡯ࡠዉ౉ߪၞౝฦ࿖ߩ᥊᳇ߩㅪേᕈࠍૐਅߐߖߡ޿ࠆน⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆޕ2007 ᐕ߹ߢߩ྾ඨᦼ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ ૶ߞߚᦨㄭߩಽᨆߣߒߡߪޔPeriklis and Kothroulas㧔2009㧕߇޽ࠆޕߎ߁ߒߚ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩㅪേᕈૐਅߦߪޔ ↥ᬺ┙࿾ߩౣ✬ޔߔߥࠊߜޔⷙᮨߩ⚻ᷣ߇௛ߊ↥ᬺࠍਛᔃߦޔtransaction cost ߇ૐਅߒߚၞౝߦ߅޿ߡޔ ․ቯ࿖ߦ㓸ਛ⊛ߦ┙࿾ߔࠆ௑ะ߇ᒝ߹ߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇ᓇ㗀ߒߡ޿ࠆน⢻ᕈ߇޽ࠆޕ

15 _{ਛ࿖ߦߟ޿ߡߪャ಴ଔᩰ߇౉ᚻߢ߈ߕታ⾰ャ಴ߩિ߮߇⸘▚ߢ߈ߥ߆ߞߚߚ߼ߦ㒰ᄖߒߚޕ}

16_{Christiano et al.㧔1997㧕ߩ Appendix B.㧔Sims-Zha identification scheme㧕ߣߒߡޔଥᢙⴕ೉ߩ೙⚂᧦ઙ߇}

(15)

㊄Ⲣ᡽╷ߩ࠲࡯ࠥ࠶࠻ࠍ

R

tޔ㊄Ⲣ᡽╷ᒰዪ߇᦭ߔࠆᖱႎࠍ

ߥ߅ޔ☨࿖ߩ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢࠍ࿖㓙⊛ߥ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣߒߡᛒ߁ߩߪޔStock and Watson

(2005a) ߣห᭽ߢ޽ࠆޕ☨࿖߇ၮゲㅢ⽻࿖ߢ޽ࠆߎߣࠍ〯߹߃ࠇ߫ߎߩὐߪ⸵ኈߐࠇࠆߣ ⠨߃ࠆޕ 㧔4㧕ߩ౞࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻ߪవߦㅀߴߚࠃ߁ߦޔ౞࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻㧔౞㧛☨࠼࡞㧕ߩჇଔ㧔࡟࡯ ࠻ߩਅ⪭㧕߇࠼࡞ߣㅪേߒߚ᧲ࠕࠫࠕฦ࿖ߩャ಴┹੎ജߩ਄᣹ޔᷫଔ㧔࡟࡯࠻ߩ਄᣹㧕߇ ห┹੎ജߩૐਅߦߟߥ߇ࠆߚ߼ޔᗐቯߐࠇࠆ౞࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻ߩᄌൻ₸ߣ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧗☨࿖ࡈࠔ ࠢ࠲࡯ߩ㑐ଥߪㅒ⋧㑐ߦߥࠆߎߣ߇ᗐቯߐࠇࠆޕ ⛯޿ߡ↢↥ᕈ㑐ㅪߩ 2 ߟߩᜰᮡߦߟ޿ߡㅀߴࠆޕ㧔5㧕ߩోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈߪޔBackus et al.

㧔1992ޔ1994㧕ޔGlick and Rogoff㧔1995㧕ߥߤࠍෳ⠨ߦޔࠦࡉ࠳ࠣ࡜ࠬဳߩ↢↥㑐ᢙࠍᗐቯ ߒߡ

ln(

Y

t

)

S

ln(

(16)

ࠅ18ޔࡑࠢࡠ⚻ᷣߦኻߔࠆነਈ߇ᄢ߈޿ߎߣ߇੍ᗐߐࠇࠆޕઁ࿾ၞߦߪ⷗ࠄࠇߥ޿ޔ᧲ࠕ ࠫࠕߩಽᬺࡀ࠶࠻ࡢ࡯ࠢߦ⚵ߺㄟ߹ࠇߚડᬺߩ┹੎ജߩḮᴰߣߒߡޔหᛛⴚߪᵈ⋡ߐࠇߡ

߅ࠅ㧔ADB㧔2003㧕㧕ޔߎ߁ߒߚャ౉⾗ᧄ⽷ߦଐሽߔࠆᐲว޿߇ᄢ߈޿㖧࿖ߩ੐଀ࠍขࠅ਄

ߍߡታ⸽ಽᨆߒߚ Kwack and Sun㧔2005㧕ߢߪޔห࿖ߩ 1969㧙2000 ᐕߦ߅ߌࠆోⷐ⚛↢↥ ᕈ਄᣹₸ߩㆊඨ߇ޔャ౉⾗ᧄ⽷ߦ૕ൻߐࠇߚᛛⴚߩ⒖ォߦࠃߞߡ⺑᣿ߢ߈ࠆߣ⚿⺰ߠߌߡ ޿ࠆޕ

ᧄⓂ߇ណ↪ߔࠆᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߩ⸘᷹ᣇᴺߪ Greenwood et al.㧔1997ޔ2000㧕߇ឭ␜ ߒߚࡕ࠺࡞ߦၮߠ޿ߡ߅ࠅޔKwack and Sun㧔2005㧕ߩࠕࡊࡠ࡯࠴ߣߪ⇣ߥࠅޔోⷐ⚛↢↥

ᕈߣߪ೎⒳ߩᛛⴚㅴᱠߣߒߡޔߎߩᯏ᪾⸳஻ߦ૕ൻߐࠇߚᛛⴚߩᓎഀࠍ૏⟎ߠߌࠆ19ޕ ⾗ᧄࠬ࠻࠶ࠢࠍ

K

ޔᛩ⾗ߩኻ⽎ߣߥࠅ⾗ᧄࠬ࠻࠶ࠢߦ⚵ߺ౉ࠇࠄࠇࠆᯏ᪾⸳஻ࠍ

I

ޔ⾗ ᧄࠬ࠻࠶ࠢߩᷫ⠻₸ࠍ

G

ߣ⟎ߊߣޔᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ㧔

q

㧕ߪ⾗ᧄߩㆫ⒖ᑼߦᰴߩࠃ߁ ߦ⚵ߺㄟ߹ࠇࠆޕ

K

_t1

(

1 G

)

19

ᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߪޔSolow㧔1960㧕ޔDomer㧔1963㧕ޔJorgenson㧔1966㧕ߥߤߢၮᧄ⊛ߥ⠨߃ᣇ߇ឭ ␜ߐࠇޔGreenwood et al.㧔1997ޔ2000㧕ߪޔߎߩᛛⴚ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢ߇☨࿖ߩ⚻ᷣᚑ㐳ߦ⽸₂ߒߡ޿ࠆὐࠍ㧝࿖ ࡕ࠺࡞ࠍ૶޿ታ⸽ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ㐿᡼૕♽ߩേቇ৻⥸ဋⴧࡕ࠺࡞߳ߩᔕ↪଀ߣߒߡޔBoileau㧔2002㧕ޔ┻ౝ㧔2006㧕 ߥߤ߇޽ࠆޕߎߩ߁ߜޔBoileau㧔2002㧕ߪవㅴ⻉࿖ࡕ࠺࡞ߢ޽ࠆߩߦኻߒߡޔ┻ౝ㧔2006㧕ߪ⾗ᧄ⽷ࠍଏ ⛎ߔࠆవㅴ⻉࿖㧔ᣣᧄߣ☨࿖㧕ߣޔ⾗ᧄ⽷ࠍャ౉ߒߡ⃻࿾↢↥ࠍⴕ߁᧲ࠕࠫࠕ 7 ࠞ࿖㧔㖧࿖ޔบḧޔࡑ࡟ ࡯ࠪࠕޔࠗࡦ࠼ࡀࠪࠕޔࡈࠖ࡝ࡇࡦޔࠪࡦࠟࡐ࡯࡞ޔ࠲ࠗ㧕ߩ㑆ߩޟ2 ࠞ࿖ࡕ࠺࡞ޠࠍᗐቯߒޔᛩ⾗․ᱶ ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߩሽ࿷߇వㅴ⻉࿖ߣ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߩ㑆ߩ᥊᳇ᓴⅣߩ⋧㑐ߦ৻ቯߩᓎഀࠍᨐߚߒߡ޿ࠆߎߣࠍ ታ⸽ߒߡ޿ࠆޕ 20 _{☨࿖ߩᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠࠍᛒߞߚ Greenwood et al.㧔1997ޔ2000㧕ߢߪޔᯏ᪾⸳஻ଔᩰߦߟ޿ߡߪޔ} ⁛⥄ߦຠ⾰⺞ᢛࠍᣉߒߚ Gordon㧔1990㧕ߩ⎇ⓥᚑᨐࠍᒁ↪ߒߡ޿ࠆޕPakko㧔2002㧕߇᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒߡ޿ࠆ ࠃ߁ߦޔ⾗ᧄ⽷ߩຠ⾰⺞ᢛߩ⒟ᐲߪᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߩផ⸘⚿ᨐࠍᄢ߈ߊᏀฝߔࠆ໧㗴ߛ߇ޔຠ⾰⺞ᢛ ࠍߤߩࠃ߁ߦߒߡޔߤߎ߹ߢ࠺ࡈ࡟࡯࠲ߦ෻ᤋߐߖࠆߴ߈߆ߦߟ޿ߡߪ᭽ޘߥ⠨߃ᣇ߇޽ࠅޔవㅴ⻉࿖ߩ 㑆ߢ߽ኻᔕߩ઀ᣇߦᏅ߇޽ࠆߩ߇ታᖱߢ޽ࠆޕPakko㧔2002㧕߇ᜰ៰ߔࠆㅢࠅޔGreenwood et al.㧔1997ޔ 2000㧕߽ޔGordon㧔1990㧕ߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ◲ᤃᑧ㐳ߒߡ૶↪ߒߡ޿ࠆὐߦߪᡷༀߩ૛࿾߇ᱷࠆޕᧄⓂߢណ↪ߐ ࠇߚฦ࿖ߩ SNA ⛔⸘ߦߟ޿ߡ߽ޔᔅߕߒ߽ห᭽ߩၮḰߦၮߠ޿ߡຠ⾰⺞ᢛߐࠇߡ޿ࠆࠊߌߢߪߥ޿ὐߦ ߪ⇐ᗧߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕ

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࿑ 3㧙3ޔ࿑ 3㧙4 ߪታ㓙ߩ࠺࡯࠲߆ࠄ⸘▚ߒߚ 16 ࠞ࿖ߩᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߩផ⒖ߢ޽ ࠆޕ࿑ 3㧙3 ߇వㅴ⻉࿖ޔ࿑ 3㧙4 ߇᧲ࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ߢ޽ࠆޕ 㩷 ࿑㧟㧙㧟 వㅴ㧣ࠞ࿖ߩᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ 㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 ࿑㧟㧙㧠 ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧥ࠞ࿖ߩᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ 㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩ৻ㇱߩ࿖ࠍ㒰޿ߡᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߪ਄᣹࠻࡟ࡦ࠼ࠍឬ޿ߡ޿ࠆޕߎ߁ߒ ߚ਄᣹࠻࡟ࡦ࠼ߪవㅴ⻉࿖ࠍᛒߞߚవⴕ⎇ⓥߢ߽ห᭽ߦ⏕⹺ߐࠇߡ޿ࠆޕ߹ߚޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ ߩਛߢᲧセߒߚ႐วޔNIES ฦ࿖ߩᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߩિ߮ߪ߅߅߻ߨޔASEAN ฦ࿖ࠍ 㪐㪇㪈㪈㪇㪈㪊㪇㪈㪌㪇㪈㪎㪇㪈㪐㪇㪉㪈㪇㪈㪐㪐㪋㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪌㪑㪊㪈㪐㪐㪎㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪏㪑㪊㪉㪇㪇㪇㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪈㪑㪊㪉㪇㪇㪊㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪋㪑㪊㪉㪇㪇㪍㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪎㪑㪊 ᣣᧄ ☨࿖ 䊐䊤䊮䉴䊄䉟䉿䉟䉺䊥䉝 ⧷࿖ 䉦䊅䉻㪌㪇㪎㪇㪐㪇㪈㪈㪇㪈㪊㪇㪈㪌㪇㪈㪎㪇㪈㪐㪇㪉㪈㪇㪈㪐㪐㪊㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪋㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪌㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪍㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪎㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪏㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪐㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪇㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪈㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪉㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪊㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪋㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪌㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪍㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪎㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪏㪑㪈㖧࿖ บḧ 䉲䊮䉧䊘䊷䊦㚅᷼ ਛ࿖ 㪌㪇㪎㪇㪐㪇㪈㪈㪇㪈㪊㪇㪈㪌㪇㪈㪎㪇㪈㪐㪇㪉㪈㪇㪈㪐㪐㪊㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪋㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪌㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪍㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪎㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪏㪑㪈㪈㪐㪐㪐㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪇㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪈㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪉㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪊㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪋㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪌㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪍㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪎㪑㪈㪉㪇㪇㪏㪑㪈䊙䊧䊷䉲䉝䉟䊮䊄䊈䉲䉝䉺䉟䊐䉞䊥䊏䊮

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਄࿁ߞߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇⷗ߡขࠇࠆޕߥ߅ޔ਎⇇ޔవㅴ⻉࿖ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣᲧセߔࠆ ߚ߼ߦᔅⷐߥᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߩ㓸⸘ߪޔోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈߣห᭽ߦޔ2000 ᤨὐߩታ⾰ GDP ߢട㊀ᐔဋߒߡⴕߞߚޕ ߢߪޔએ਄ߩࠃ߁ߦ⸘▚ߐࠇߚฦᄌᢙߣ structural FAVAR ߆ࠄ᛽಴ߐࠇߚࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߩ 㑆ߦߪߤߩ⒟ᐲߩ⋧㑐߇⷗಴ߖࠆߩߛࠈ߁߆ޕ⴫ 3㧙4 ߦޔฦᄌᢙߣਥⷐࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ⋧ 㑐ଥᢙߩ⸘▚⚿ᨐࠍ߹ߣ߼ߚ21ޕ 㩷 ⴫㧟㧙㧠 ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣฦ⒳࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߣߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙ 㩷㩷㩷 ਎⇇㩷 వㅴ⻉࿖㩷 _{䋨ਛ࿖㒰䈒䋩㩷}᧲䉝䉳䉝㩷 ᧲䉝䉳䉝䋨ਛ࿖㩷_{฽䉃䋩䋫☨࿖㩷} 㪄㪇㪅㪈㪈㪍㪉㩷㪄㪇㪅㪈㪍㪐㪍㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪋㪈㪊㩷㪄㪇㪅㪈㪎㪍㪉㩷㪁㩷䉣䊈䊦䉩䊷ଔᩰ䋨䌉䌆䌓䋩㩷㩿㪄㪀㪇㪅㪏㪏㪊㪎㩷㪈㪅㪉㪐㪐㪍㩷㪇㪅㪊㪈㪉㪉㩷㪈㪅㪊㪌㪉㪊㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪉㪏㪉㪐㪁㪁㪄㪇㪅㪈㪈㪇㪎㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪉㪉㪇㩷㪄㪇㪅㪉㪏㪏㪎㩷㪁㪁㩷䉣䊈䊦䉩䊷ଔᩰ䋨䌉䌆䌓䋩㪉㪇㪇㪇 ᐕએ㒠㩷㩿㪄㪀㪈㪅㪎㪉㪇㪏㩷㪇㪅㪍㪋㪐㪍㩷㪇㪅㪈㪉㪏㪋㩷㪈㪅㪎㪌㪐㪊㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪈㪐㪇㩷㪄㪇㪅㪈㪌㪏㪋㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㪍㪎㩷㪇㪅㪈㪇㪈㪐㩷㩷䈠䈱ઁ䋱ᰴ↥ຠଔᩰ䋨䌉䌆䌓䋩㩷㩿㪄㪀㪇㪅㪈㪋㪊㪌㩷㪈㪅㪉㪈㪈㪐㩷㪇㪅㪍㪌㪎㪊㩷㪇㪅㪎㪎㪊㪎㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪐㪌㪍㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪋㪋㪎㩷㪇㪅㪇㪎㪈㪏㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㪋㪈㩷㩷䈠䈱ઁ䋱ᰴ↥ຠଔᩰ䋨䌉䌆䌓䋩㪉㪇㪇㪇 ᐕએ㒠㩷㩿㪄㪀㪇㪅㪌㪍㪇㪇㩷㪇㪅㪉㪍㪇㪐㩷㪇㪅㪋㪈㪐㪐㩷㪇㪅㪋㪐㪉㪋㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪈㪍㪍㪎㩷㪄㪇㪅㪈㪋㪍㪐㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪉㪌㪍㩷㪄㪇㪅㪉㪏㪉㪎㩷㪁㪁㩷䉣䊈䊦䉩䊷ଔᩰ䋨䌉䌆䌓䋩㪟㪸㫄㫀㫃㫋㫆㫅㩿㪈㪐㪐㪍㪀㩷㩿㪄㪀㪈㪅㪉㪎㪎㪇㩷㪈㪅㪈㪉㪈㪏㩷㪇㪅㪈㪐㪊㪎㩷㪉㪅㪉㪉㪌㪉㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪉㪎㪏㪐㪁㪁㪄㪇㪅㪇㪐㪋㪐㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪊㪏㪌㩷㪄㪇㪅㪊㪎㪏㪊㩷㪁㪁㩷䉣䊈䊦䉩䊷ଔᩰ䋨䌉䌆䌓䋩㪉㪇㪇㪇 ᐕએ㒠㩷㩷㪟㪸㫄㫀㫃㫋㫆㫅㩿㪈㪐㪐㪍㪀㩷㩿㪄㪀㪈㪅㪍㪐㪊㪋㩷㪇㪅㪌㪌㪍㪇㩷㪇㪅㪉㪉㪌㪈㩷㪉㪅㪊㪏㪊㪊㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪇㪎㪈㩷㪄㪇㪅㪉㪌㪋㪊㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪍㪍㪌㩷㪇㪅㪇㪏㪏㪐㩷㩷㊄Ⲣ䉲䊢䉾䉪㩷㩿㪄㪀㪇㪅㪇㪌㪌㪌㩷㪉㪅㪇㪌㪋㪈㩷㪇㪅㪌㪉㪇㪏㩷㪇㪅㪍㪐㪎㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㪏㪋㩷㪄㪇㪅㪈㪌㪍㪎㩷㪇㪅㪈㪇㪋㪊㩷㪄㪇㪅㪊㪉㪐㪇㩷㪁㪁㩷 ౞䊄䊦䊧䊷䊃䋨ኻᣣᧄャ಴┹੎ജ䋩㪈㪐㪐㪊㪄㪉㪇㪇㪋㩿㪄㪀㪇㪅㪐㪊㪎㪎㩷㪈㪅㪇㪍㪋㪌㩷㪇㪅㪎㪇㪊㪏㩷㪉㪅㪊㪊㪏㪊㩷㩷㪇㪅㪉㪇㪐㪍㪁㪁㪄㪇㪅㪇㪉㪈㪈㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪊㪈㪈㩷㪄㪇㪅㪈㪌㪋㪎㩷㩷 ౞䊄䊦䊧䊷䊃䋨ኻᣣᧄャ಴┹੎ജ䋩㪈㪐㪐㪊㪄㪉㪇㪇㪏㩿㪄㪀㪈㪅㪍㪏㪐㪇㩷㪇㪅㪈㪍㪍㪊㩷㪇㪅㪉㪋㪌㪈㩷㪈㪅㪉㪉㪊㪐㩷㩷㪇㪅㪇㪇㪋㪍㩷㪇㪅㪉㪈㪍㪋㪁㪁㪇㪅㪇㪋㪐㪎㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪌㪏㪇㩷㩷 ోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈ㩷㩿㪂㪀㪇㪅㪇㪊㪌㪊㩷㪈㪅㪎㪈㪎㪌㩷㪇㪅㪊㪏㪉㪊㩷㪇㪅㪋㪋㪍㪌㩷㩷㪄㪇㪅㪇㪎㪏㪐㩷㪇㪅㪈㪊㪌㪈㩷㪇㪅㪉㪈㪎㪐㪁㪁㩷㪇㪅㪇㪌㪍㪈㩷㩷 ᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ㩷㩿㪂㪀㪇㪅㪌㪎㪇㪐㩷㪈㪅㪇㪇㪉㪉㩷㪈㪅㪍㪎㪈㪇㩷㪇㪅㪋㪈㪍㪏㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷㩷 ߹ߕޔ⾗Ḯଔᩰ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߢ޽ࠆ㧔1㧕㧔2㧕ߛ߇ޔ㧔1㧕ߩࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ଔᩰߦߟ޿ߡߪޔ਎ ⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ޔ߅ࠃ߮ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧗☨࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ⋧㑐߇⏕⹺ߐࠇߚޕߚߛߒޔ1993 ╙ 2 ྾ඨᦼ㧙2008 ᐕ╙ 4 ྾ඨᦼߩㅢᦼߩ࠺࡯࠲ࠍ૶ߞߚ႐วޔ਎⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ⋧㑐ߪ ᦭ᗧߢߪߥߊޔ᦭ᗧߥ⋧㑐߇⏕⹺ߢ߈ߚߩߪޔ⾗Ḯଔᩰ߇਄᣹ၮ⺞ߦォߓߚ 2000 ᐕએ㒠ߢ ޽ߞߚޕ㧔2㧕ߩࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ࠍ㒰ߊ৻ᰴ↥ຠଔᩰߦߟ޿ߡߪޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ⋧㑐ߪ⷗಴ߖ 21 _{⴫ 3㧙4 ߦߪޔ૗ࠄ߆ߩ⋧㑐߇⏕⹺ߢ߈ߚࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߛߌࠍឝタߒߚޕߎߎߢ⸅ࠇࠄࠇߡ޿ߥ޿᰷Ꮊޔ} NIESޔASEANޔᣣᧄࠍ㒰ߊవㅴ⻉࿖ߩฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦߟ޿ߡߪޔߘࠇࠄߩౕ૕⊛ߥਛりࠍ․ቯߔࠆߦߪ ⥋ࠄߥ߆ߞߚޕߥ߅ޔGDP ߩઍࠊࠅߦ↢↥࠺࡯࠲ࠍ૶޿ⴕߞߚ㗎ஜᕈ࠹ࠬ࠻㧔3.3 ▵㧕ߢߪޔNIESޔᣣᧄ ࠍ㒰ߊవㅴ⻉࿖ߩฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦߟ޿ߡ߽ోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈߥߤߣߩ⋧㑐߇⏕⹺ߐࠇߚޕ 㧔ᵈ㧝㧕਄Ბ߇⋧㑐ଥᢙޔਅᲑߪࡇࠕ࠰ࡦߩᬌቯ⛔⸘㊂ޕ㧡㧑᦭ᗧ᳓Ḱޔ㧑᦭ᗧ᳓Ḱޕ 㧔ᵈ㧞㧕㧔㧗㧕㧔㧙㧕ߪᗐቯߐࠇࠆ⋧㑐ଥᢙߩ╓ภ᧦ઙޕ 㧔ᵈ㧟㧕㧞ߟߩ↢↥ᕈᜰᮡߩ߁ߜޔᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߪޔࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦኻߒߡ㧠྾ඨᦼ࡝࡯࠼ࠍߣߞߚᤨᏅ⋧㑐 ଥᢙ㧔ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣ㧠྾ඨᦼᓟߩᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߣߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙ㧕ޕઁߩ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߦߟ޿ߡߪ࡝࡯࠼࡮࡜ࠣ ߥߒߩ⋧㑐ଥᢙޕᢥਛߩޟ↢↥ᕈ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩಽᨆ⚿ᨐޠࠍෳᾖޕ

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ߥ߆ߞߚޕࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ଔᩰߩ਄᣹ߪ਎⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ࠍㅢߓߡߔߴߡߩ࿖ߦᓇ㗀ࠍ߽ߚࠄߒ ߡ޿ࠆ߇ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ߅ࠃ߮☨࿖ߦߪߐࠄߦㅊട⊛ߥࡑࠗ࠽ࠬߩലᨐ߇⏕⹺ߐࠇࠆ⚿ᨐߣߥ ߞߚޕߎࠇߪޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߣ☨࿖߇ઁߩవㅴ⻉࿖ߦᲧߴߡࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ല₸㧔ࠛࡀ࡞ࠡ࡯ଏ⛎ ㊂㧛ታ⾰ GDP㧕߇ᖡ޿ߎߣࠍ෻ᤋߒߡ޿ࠆߣផኤߐࠇࠆ22ޕ ߥ߅ޔ⾗Ḯଔᩰ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߦߟ޿ߡߪޔHamilton㧔1996㧕ߦၮߠ޿ߡ⸘▚ߒߚ⾗Ḯଔᩰߩ ᄌൻ₸ߣޔฦࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ㑐ଥ߽⏕⹺ߒߚޕHamilton㧔1996㧕ߪේᴤଔᩰߩᄌൻ߇ࡑࠢ ࡠ⚻ᷣߦ߽ߚࠄߔᓇ㗀߇ଔᩰߩ਄᣹ዪ㕙ߣਅ㒠ዪ㕙ߢ㕖ኻ⒓⊛ߢ޽ࠅޔਅ㒠ዪ㕙ߦߪᔅߕ ߒ߽ࡊ࡜ࠬߩലᨐࠍ߽ߚࠄߐߥ޿ὐߦᵈ⋡ߒޔਅ㒠ዪ㕙ߩᄌൻ₸ࠍ࠯ࡠߣ⟎޿ߚᜰᮡࠍ૶ ߞߡ GDP ᚑ㐳₸߳ߩᓇ㗀ࠍಽᨆߒޔන⚐ߥᄌൻ₸ࠍណ↪ߒߚ႐วࠃࠅ߽ࡑࠢࡠᜰᮡߦኻ ߔࠆ⺑᣿ജ߇㜞޿ὐࠍ᣿ࠄ߆ߦߒߚޕ⴫ 3㧙4 ࠍ⷗ࠆߣޔHamilton㧔1996㧕ߦᴪߞߡห᭽ߦ 㧔1㧕ࠍ⸘▚ߒߚ႐ว߽਎⇇ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ޔ߅ࠃ߮ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧗☨࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ⋧㑐߇⹺ ߼ࠄࠇޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧗☨࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ⋧㑐ߦߟ޿ߡߪ⺑᣿ജ߇㜞߹ࠆ௑ะ߇⏕⹺ߢ߈ࠆޕ ᰴߦޔ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߛ߇ޔవㅴ⻉࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ⋧㑐ߛߌ߇⏕⹺ߐࠇߚޕ㊄Ⲣᷓൻ 㧔financial deepening㧕ߩᐲว޿ߪㅜ਄࿖ߢ޽ࠆࠕࠫࠕ⻉࿖ࠃࠅ߽వㅴ⻉࿖ߩᣇ߇ᄢ߈ߊޔ ㊄Ⲣ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩᓇ㗀߇వㅴ⻉࿖ߦ㒢ቯߐࠇࠆߣ޿߁⚿ᨐߪᅷᒰߣ್ᢿߢ߈ࠆޕ 4⇟⋡ߩᄌᢙߢ޽ࠆ㧔4㧕ߩ౞࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻ߪᗐቯߤ߅ࠅޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧗☨࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ ㅒ⋧㑐߇⏕⹺ߐࠇߚޕߒ߆ߒޔ᦭ᗧߥ㑐ଥ߇⹺߼ࠄࠇࠆߩߪ 2004 ᐕ߹ߢߢ޽ߞߚޕߎߩ⚿ ᨐߪޔ2005 ᐕએ㒠ޔࠕࠫࠕฦ࿖ㅢ⽻ߩኻ࠼࡞࡟࡯࠻߇Ⴧଔၮ⺞ߦォߓޔvolatility ߇ᄢ߈ߊ ਄᣹ߒߚߎߣߣᢛว⊛ߢ޽ࠆޕ᧲ࠕࠫࠕ㧗☨࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯߇ᗐቯㅢࠅޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕฦ࿖ߩኻ ᣣャ಴┹੎ജߩᄌൻࠍ෻ᤋߒߡ޿ࠆߚ߼ߦߪޔࠕࠫࠕฦ࿖ߩὑᦧ࡟࡯࠻߇ኻ࠼࡞ߢ቟ቯߒ ߡ޿ࠆߎߣ߇೨ឭߣߥࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕ 3.2.3 ↢↥ᕈ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩಽᨆ⚿ᨐ ᰴߦ↢↥ᕈ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߩಽᨆ⚿ᨐߦ⒖ࠆޕోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈߦߟ޿ߡߪవㅴ⻉࿖↢↥ᕈ߇వㅴ ⻉࿖ࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦᓇ㗀ࠍਈ߃ߡ޿ࠆ߽ߩߩޔ਎⇇ޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕޔNIESޔASEAN ߥߤઁߩࠣ ࡞࡯ࡊߩ↢↥ᕈߣࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣߩ㑆ߦߪ⋧㑐ߪ⏕⹺ߢ߈ߥ߆ߞߚޕ ߎࠇߦኻߒߡޔᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߪోⷐ⚛↢↥ᕈߣߪㅒߩ⚿ᨐߦߥߞߚޕߔߥࠊߜޔ ᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߩ႐วޔ᧲ࠕࠫࠕߩᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠ߇᧲ࠕࠫࠕࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߦਈ߃ ߡ޿ࠆᓇ㗀ߪ⏕⹺ߢ߈ߚ߇ޔ਎⇇߿వㅴ⻉࿖ߩหᛛⴚㅴᱠߪ޿ߕࠇߩࡈࠔࠢ࠲࡯ߣ߽᦭ᗧ ߥ㑐ଥ߇⷗಴ߖߥ߆ߞߚޕ ߥ߅ޔᶖ⾌⽷ߩᯏ᪾⸳஻ߦኻߔࠆ⋧ኻଔᩰߣߒߡ޽ࠄࠊߐࠇࠆᛩ⾗․ᱶ⊛ᛛⴚㅴᱠߢߪޔ ↢↥ᕈߩᄌൻߣଔᩰߩᄌൻߣߩ㑆ߦ޽ࠆ࠲ࠗࡓ࡜ࠣߦ⇐ᗧߔࠆᔅⷐ߇޽ࠆޕ↢↥ᕈ࡚ࠪ࠶ ࠢ߇޽ߞߚ႐ว߽ޔଔᩰߩ⺞ᢛࠦࠬ࠻╬߇੺࿷ߔࠆ⚿ᨐޔߔߴߡߩડᬺ߇หᤨߦଔᩰࠍᡷ ቯߢ߈ࠆࠊߌߢߪߥߊޔߒߚ߇ߞߡޔ↢↥ᕈ࡚ࠪ࠶ࠢߦࠃࠆࡑࠢࡠߩଔᩰᄌᦝߪ✭߿߆ߦ ᤨ㑆ࠍ߆ߌߡⴕࠊࠇࠆߣ⠨߃ࠄࠇࠆ߆ࠄߢ޽ࠆޕ 22

JAIST Repository: Structural FAVARによる世界景気の要因分析

Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology