事例
著者
赤林 英夫
権利
Copyrights 日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）アジア
経済研究所 / Institute of Developing
Economies, Japan External Trade Organization
(IDE-JETRO) http://www.ide.go.jp
シリーズタイトル
研究双書
シリーズ番号
529
雑誌名
アフリカ経済学宣言
ページ
297-326
発行年
2003
出版者
日本貿易振興会アジア経済研究所
URL
http://hdl.handle.net/2344/00012188
第９章
出稼ぎ労働の経済学
―― 南アフリカ共和国の事例――赤 林 英 夫
苍芶苟苉
艐腄 软角芬顊鎭苆荁荴莊荊豯跏貤讆 腀豯跏苌钭鍗鍲迣鉩詋苉芨芯苩腃鑟醺閔芩苧鍳蹳閔苖苌鋡韵苈顊鎭韍苌裚鎮 苍腃苙苆英苇芷苗苄苌趑苉芨芢苄苝苩花苆芪苅芫苩芪腃芻苌靶裶苆腃赈识覻 苢辊鎾苌迣辸苉苠芽苧芷裓譠苉苂芢苄苍腃隢芾苉醽芭苌譣顟芪赳苭苪苄芢苩腂 遬賻裚鎮苌讟讋醤苌靶裶苰腃 遖賃鍔鑨鍉豯跏鞝顟苉諮苃芢苄鋨躮覻芵腃芻苌 賣苌譣顟苌软钭鍟苆苈苁芽苌苍腃荧荟莍腩Todaro腭1969腮腪苌顟閶苅芠苁芽a腂 芵芩芵腃荧荟莍苌鞝顟苍腃芻苌賣腃鞝顟鍉腅軀还鍉苉醽芭苌铡钻苰鞁苑苩花 苆苉苈苩腂苆芭苉腃荁荴莊荊苌迪趇腃醽芭苌裚鎮顊鎭軒苍裪躞鍉苈腵软角芬腶 顊鎭軒腩temporary migrant腪s苅芠苨腃芻苌花苆芪荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩譚鑜顊鎭 軒苌鉾郏苆辊鎾苌購迣苰陗芰苄芢苩苆芢芤鍟芪腃醽芭苌貤讆軒苉蹷鍅芳苪苄 芫芽d腂 腀荁荴莊荊苌鑟醺顊鎭軒苌醽芭芪腵 软角芬腶苰豯貱芵苂苂苠腃鋊迭腃软遧苌 鑟醺苉视醰苰蹣芵腃跅轉鍉苉苍芻苌鑟醺苉雟苩花苆腃芻苌芽苟 鑟醺认鎯里苆 苌論豗苍貈芵苄郘苪苩花苆芪苈芢花苆苍腃荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩顊鎭讟讋赳鎮苰 赬芦苩芤芦苅諮陻鍉苈躋鍟苆苈苁苄芢苩腂荘荥荂荎荞腛腩Stichter腭1985: 1腀2腮腪苍腃荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩裚鎮顊鎭苌荔腛荸荃苌苈芩苅腃醼苌鉮裦苆铤該芵芽迪 趇腃 软角芬顊鎭芪荁荴莊荊釥鞤苌钭鍗苉芨芯苩跅苠鏁銥鍉苈費进苌裪苂苅芠 苩花苆腃芻苪芪荁荴莊荊苌苝苅蹣苁苄芢苩花苆芪荁荴莊荊苌蹙识钭鍗苌鉸苪 苆論豗芵苄芢苩花苆腃苰譣顟芵苄芢苩腂鏺陻苅苠腃賃芭苍郔襈腭1969腮芪腃 软角芬顊鎭軒苍腃芽苆芦鍳蹳閔苅鎭芢苄芢苄苠腃貈芵苄鑟醺苉芨芯苩 认鎯里 芩苧鞣鉅芷苩花苆苍苈芢花苆苰顟芶苄芢苩腂苜芽跅诟苅苍腃闵腭1999: 108腮 芪腃 软角芬顊鎭苆芻苌鑷賣苉芠苩 鑟醺认鎯里苌醶醱苌裓譠苰腃荱荦腛莓苆荸 荃荣苌譣顟苰野铤芳芹苈芪苧顟芶腃 软角芬顊鎭軒苉苆苁苄鑟醺苖苌腵 釞软草 荶荖莇莓腶苰裛躝芷苩花苆芪腃 鑟醺认鎯里苌閽鎙鍉覿鉬諏苉蹸芦苧苪芽軐觯 闛迡譀鑜苰讝軳芷苩芽苟苉镳观貇苅芠苩花苆腃芻苌芽苟苉鑟醺苆苌苰闛苂 镋靶芪芠苩花苆苰蹷鍅芵苄芢苩腂 腀芻花苅離苭苪苈芯苪苎苈苧苈芢花苆苍腃 软角芬顊鎭苍腃镮芵芳腩苠芵芭苍 赌芢裓隡苅苌豯跏鍉邧雱腪賌苌趇鞝鍉鉭豢苈苌芩腃芻苪苆苠荁荴莊荊賅靌苌腩邭 躡鍉腅閶覻鍉腪 譋铍芪苠芽苧芷赳鎮苌邧雱迳讵苰镜芵苄芢苩苌芩腃苆芢芤花 苆苅芠苩f腂酏軒苅芠苪苎腃離釨苉芷苗芫花苆苍镮趢苅芠苁苄软角芬赳鎮躩 里苅苍苈芢腂賣軒苅芠苪苎腃離釨苉芷苗芫苍腃 认鎯里芩苧苌貈闊苌躩青苰邧 賀芷苩賃芢誵轋苆邧鍸苅芠苩腂芳苧苉腃賣軒苌躋鍟芩苧苍腃花苌铱迭苉荁荴 莊荊鍉苈 软角芬顊鎭軒苌醶距花芻芪腃腵铱賸鞦苈腶荁荴莊荊苌 鑟醺认鎯里苌 醶醱苉軨苰針芵腃鑟醺顊鎭軒苰轮韻鍳蹳顊鎭軒苉鍝誷芳芹苩花苆苰陗芰苄芢 苩腃苆芢芤花苆苠譣顟芳苪苩g腂 腀钭鍗鍲迣趑苉芨芯苩醼苌譣顟苆鎯靬苉腃镮趢芪芠苩裪鋨苌赳鎮苰苠芽苧芵 苄芢苩苌芩腃芻苪苆苠芠苩赳鎮靬躮腵躩里腶芪镮趢苰邶苝软芵苄芢苩苌芩腃 裶觊論豗苰觰芫苙芮芷苌苍靥裕苈花苆苅苍苈芢腂芵芩芵腃腩荔荮莉裈鏬苌腪荁 荴莊荊芪腃郭賣苌詊钭蹪苌苈芩苅苙苆英苇靂裪邬銷芩苧軦苨蹣芳苪苄芢苩鉮 裦苅芠苩花苆腩閽雬腭2002腮腪腃芻芵苄辊鎾苌跅苠轤靶苈貹郲苅芠苩顊鎭韍苌 鞬鎮邫芪腃醼苌鉮裦苅苍苝苧苪苈芢鏁裙苈邫躿苰苠苁苄芢苩花苆苰赬芦苩苆腃 荁荴莊荊豯跏芪邬銷芵苈芢鞝青苰跄赬芷苩跛苉苍腃 软角芬顊鎭苌豯跏鍉裓隡 苰離芢銼芷跬识苍铰芯苄苍鋊苪苈芢腂
艑腄 鏬荁荴莊荊苌 顊鎭裚鎮貤讆苌裓譠苆陻迍苌雚鍉 腀花花苅腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩 软角芬顊鎭苰貤讆芷苩裓譠芪钭邶芷苩腂荁荴 莊荊苉芨芯苩 软角芬顊鎭苌醶距苌讟讋醤靶裶芪 醺鞎认鎯里苌隣韍芾苆芷苩苆腃 軹靶醤靶裶芪钒遬蹸鑺苉苦苩蹙识赜醢腃芻苪芪跅苠诉鉛苈豠苅費苪芽苌芪 荁 荰莋荧荷荃荧躞釣苌 鏬荁荴莊荊认顡趑芾苁芽芩苧苅芠苩腂 软角芬顊鎭軒苆鑟 醺苆苌苍腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧躞釣苌 鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芢苄苍腃钒遬蹸鑺酷苉鞘 靰芳苪腃邧鍸鍉苉训邧芳苪苄芫芽腂芻苌躞釣苉芨芢苄苍腃 软角芬顊鎭苍芻苠 芻苠讏轚邧雱苆芢芤負鞘钍鉄苉苦苩銼郚苌貋觊苅芠苨腃醺鞎苆苌苌裛躝苌 芽苟苌腵酉釰腶苆苝苈芷鞝青芪醶距芵苈芢腂辭苈芭苆苠鎝豶鍉苉躯闊芷苩花 苆苍镳观鑜苅芠苩腂芵芩芵腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苆芢芤跅釥苌迡詑芪迁雅芷苩苆腃 软角芬苰赳芢苂苃芯苩芩腃视芲苆鑟醺芩苧鞣苪苄誮酓苉鍳蹳顊鎭軒苉闏苭苩 芩苍腃视豶苉苆苁苄苌酉釰苉苈苩腂 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧闶觳賣苌讏轚酉釰苆软角 芬苌荰荞腛莓苰苝苩花苆苅腃 软角芬顊鎭苌豯跏鍉裓譠苌裪鉛苰鉭苩花苆芪苅 芫苈芢苅芠苫芤芩腂陻迍苌離釨裓躯苌软钭鍟苍花花苉芠苩腂 腀钭鍗鍲迣趑苉芨芯苩腵 软角芬顊鎭腶苌豯跏鍉裓譠苰 遖賃鍔鑨豯跏詷苌顧酧 苝苅赬芦銼芷花苆苍腃邢詅鍉苉苠蹮苜苁芽苎芩苨苌花苆苅芠苩腂醽芭苌貤讆 苍腃软角芬郦苰辊非苆芵苄腃软角芬郦芩苧苌醗诠苌詺苢腃讏轚鉮苆软角芬郦 苉芨芯苩辊鎾貹苌 莊荘荎苉銍雚芵腃 莊荘荎荖荆荁莊莓荏腅莂荦莋苢荞腛荑荢 荧莏腛荊腛腅莂荦莋苈苇苌荴莌腛莀莏腛荎苰鞘靰芵苄腃芻苌趇鞝邫苰譣顟芵 苄芢苩h腂芵芩芵腃花苪苧苌貤讆苠腃视豶苌趇鞝邫苉諮苃芭荾荎莍赳鎮莂荦 莋苰貟还芷苩苆芢芤鉩詋苉苆苇苜苁苄芨苨腃荁荴莊荊豯跏苌邭躡鍉腅閶覻鍉 邧雱苠躋雬苉鏼苪芽貤讆苢腃苦苨赌芢裓隡苅苌豯跏钭鍗苆苌論顁苰譣顟芵芽 貤讆苍販芠芽苧苈芢腂 腀陻迍苅苍腃苜芸釦艐郟苅腃荧荟莍裈賣苌 顊鎭裚鎮貤讆苌費迳苰諈貉苉荔腛 荸荃芵腃釦艑郟苅苍腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩裚鎮顊鎭苰苟芮苩譣顟苆诟鑎苌軀 还貤讆苰运觮芷苩腂釦艒郟苅腃诟鑎譽醬苉邮铵芳苪苄芢苩 荾荎莍荦腛荞苰误
里鍉苈跞鞿苆芵苄腃譌轱鎝豶閪郍苉苦苁苄腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩趕遬邢金苌 裚鎮苆软角芬赳鎮苉論芷苩躖軀詭鑆苰赳芤腂釦艓郟苅苍腃 软角芬顊鎭軒苌裚 鎮郦酉釰苌豯跏鍉鎮譀苉迅鍟苰鎖苄芽腃 豶韊閪郍苰赳芤腂苆芭苉腃 荁荰莋荧 荷荃荧躞釣苌邧雱苰醊野鍉苉蹣芵苄芢苩视豶苆蹣芵苄芢苈芢视豶苅软角芬郦 苌酉釰苉裡芢芪苈芢芩铤該芵腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧芪 软角芬顊鎭軒苉非芦苄芫芽 襥访苰赬蹀芷苩腂跅賣苉腃蹣芳苪芽觛釨苉遇苪芽芢腂
釦艐郟腀荧荟莍裈赾苌 顊鎭裚鎮貤讆
艐腄铡钻 腀荅荂莊荁莀荜莓腩Williamson腭1988腮腪苍腃1980鑎釣钼苎躞鍟苅苌腃 荧荟莍腅 莂荦莋苉野芷苩铡钻鍉貟鎢苰赳苁苄芢苩腂铞苍腃腩躸识苌苝苰酺鋨芵芽腪鉐较 苈 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋苰鑲辜芵腃 荃莓荴荈腛荽莋荚荎荞腛苌 顊鎭蹳迪芪鑟醺芩苧 软苄芫芽鍳蹳顊鎭軒苌譺軻苉觊芽芷雰誄苰轤躋芷苩腂芻苌芤芦苅铞苍腃a費 軀苌諺釒鋀诠詩趷苰苝苩苆腃铱費軀鍉苈誄裸鞦苰酺鋨芵苈芢芩芬苨腃遬賻裚 鎮苰郠难苅芫苈芢花苆腃s鉐苈苩諺釒鋀诠詩趷裈詏苌靶裶苌轤靶邫腩 莊荘荎觱铰腃镳豩譃腃视醰腪腃苰蹷鍅芵苄芢苩腂荌莃荢荣苆荘荞腛荎腩Katz and Stark
腭1986腮腪苠 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋苌軀还貤讆苰荔腛荸荃芵腃荧荟莍苌 諺釒辊鎾覼郠 苍腃镋芸芵苠迭苉邬鞧芵苄芢苈芢苆芵苄芢苩腂 腀芳苧苉腃 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋芪郝鋨芵芽覼鋨苉苍腃躖韡貤讆苌郏苝轤苋苉苦苨腃 醽芭苌譞離芪鎊芰芩芯苧苪苄芢苩腂芽苆芦苎腃鑟醺芩苧软苄芫芽苎芩苨苌顊 鎭軒苍腃鍳蹳软遧軒苆鎯芶躸识軒轗鉣苉鏼苩苭芯苅苍苈芢腂花花苅苍鏱苂苌 裓隡苅苌酉釰邫腩selectivity腪芪鎭芢苄芢苩腂苜芸腃鑟醺芩苧软苄芭苩顊鎭韍苍腃 裚轚苉苦苁苄鎾苧苪苩鞘鎾苌跅苠趂芢酷苅芠苩观鑜邫芪趂芢腂芵芩芵鎯躞苉腃 荒荬苌苈芢顊鎭軒芪覽苌鎖苄苠苈芭鍳蹳苉鏼苪苎腃鍳蹳苉邶苜苪裧苁芽顊鎭 軒苆鎯芶袵芢苅賙靰芳苪苩观鑜邫苍辬芳芭腃軼規顊鎭軒苉苈苧芴苩苰芦苈芢
腩闵腭1999腮腪腂軀跛腃 荃莓荴荈腛荽莋荚荎荞腛芩苧荴荈腛荽莋荚荎荞腛苖苌 鍝誷苍镋芸芵苠靥裕苅苍苈芢花苆芪閪芩苁苄芢苩腂芽芾芵腃覽苌鎖苄苠苈芭 裚轚芵苄芭苩苌苍腃苇芿苧芩苆芢芤苆腃軡芭腃讳裧邅辀苌鋡芢腃鉐较顊鎭軒苅 芠苩腂讳裧邅辀苌趂芢顊鎭軒苌醽芭苍腃躖酏苉遅苰販苂芯芽賣苉裚鎮芵苄芭苩腂 荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩赺蹒顊鎭軒苌醽芭苍腃鉮貳苌鑟醺苅莊荎莋腛荧芳苪苄软角 芬苉软苩j腂 艑腄荾荎莍鞝顟鍉詧銣k 腀诟鑎苌荾荎莍豯跏鞝顟苌钭鍗苰軳芯苄腃 顊鎭裚鎮苌閪雬苉苠腃 迮闱苌镳誮 酓邫腃躑陻蹳迪苌镳誮酓邫腃视醰苌郭鞪腃譋雍苉苦苩軻詮鋼醝苈苇苰赬鞶芵 芽莂荦莋芪躟腘苉詊钭芳苪苄芢苩腂芽苆芦苎腃鑟醺鉮裦苉芨芢苄腃賅鋨铯靰 苢鍹鉮腅躑蹙蹳迪苌镳誮酓邫苉苦苩軻詮鋼醝芪醶距芷苪苎腃 莊荘荎觱铰鍉苈 賸靰論邔苌苠苆苅苠腃苭芸芩苈荠莃莓荘苌荮荃莊荞腛莓苰讁苟苄腃 莊荘荎苌 趂芢鍳蹳閔苉软角芬苉软苩花苆芪趇鞝鍉苅芠苨芤苩腩Katz and Stark腭1986腮腪腂 芽芾芵腃花苌迪趇苍腃邶誈苌諮铕苍鑟醺苅芠苨腃鍳蹳苖苌裚轚苍视醰苌裪閔 苉賀苧苪芽腃芵芩苠裪躞鍉苈苠苌苅芠苩苍芸苅芠苩腂苜芽腃鋨轚鉮苅芠苩鑟 醺閔苅苌 莊荘荎芪趂芢迪趇苉腃 莊荘荎苌醊論論豗芪鋡芢芩閉苅芠苩鉮裦苉软 角芬苢裷郊論豗苰讁苟苩花苆苅腃视醰酓里苆芵苄苌 莊荘荎苰覺芰苩迪趇芪芠 苩腂花苌苦芤苈迪趇腃软角芬郦芪腃镋芸芵苠鋨轚鉮苦苨苠 諺釒辊鎾苅趂芢镋 靶苍苈芢腂芽芾芵腃软角芬苍钼襩譶鍉苉苈苩观鑜邫芪趂芢腂
腀莍腛荛莓荣莏荃荎苆荘荞腛荎腩Rosenzweig and Stark腭1989腮腪苍腃辗邫苌貋 趥苉苦苩裚轚芪腃裷郊論豗苰鞘靰芵苄 莊荘荎苰觱铰芷苩芽苟苌视醰苌郭鞪苅 芠苩躖韡苰闱趐芵苄芢苩腂铞苧苍腃荃莓荨苌蹏苂苌醺苅1974鑎芩苧10鑎諔苉 苭芽苨軻轗芳苪芽视豶荦腛荞苰靰芢腃a貋趥苅辗邫芪裚轚芷苩苆腃遈鞿蹸软 苅苝芽迁铯苌闏鎮苰腩裷郊諔苌醗诠苅腪靽芦苩花苆芪苅芫苄芢苩腃s詏邶鍉 苉辊鎾苌闏鎮芪釥芫芢视豶苙苇腃辗邫苌貋趥郦苰覓闻苉腩芷苈苭芿辊鎾苌闏 鎮苉醊論芪苈芢醊軨苉腪酉英苅芢苩腃花苆苰钭販芵苄芢苩腂苂苜苨腃辗邫芪
貋趥苉苦苨覓闻苉裚轚芷苩花苆苍腃 莊荘荎苌釥芫芢鑟醺軐觯苅苍腃视醰苉苆苁 苄闛貯苰钃芤苌苆鎯靬苌譀鑜芪芠苩花苆苉苈苩腂花苌迪趇腃裚轚郦苅苌 諺釒 辊鎾芪裚轚貳苦苨苠趂芢镋靶苍苈芭腃醗诠芪裪闻購腩陌芩苈闻芩苧镮芵芢闻腪 苖赳苭苪苩镋靶苠苈芢腂芻苌裓隡苅腃花苌赬芦闻苍賃鍔鍉苈裓隡苅苌 荧荟莍腅 莂荦莋苰銴芦苄芢苩腂视醰苌莁莓药腛苌裚轚苆芻花芩苧苌醗诠苍賝芢苉镳观 閪苌論豗苉芠苨腃芻苌雚鍉苍腃辊鎾苌闏鎮苰諉顡芵 迁铯苰閽辀覻芷苩花苆苉 芠苩苌苅腃躞豮韱鍉苉苝苄腃醗诠芪酯闻購苉苙苚鎯詺芸苂邶芶苄芢苄苠镳蹶 譣苅苍苈芢腂鎯靬苉腃荼腛莋荜莓腩Paulson腭2000腮腪苍荞荃苌荦腛荞苰靰芢腃 莊荘荎觱铰鎮譀芪鑟醺閔芩苧药莓荒荎苖苌软角芬苉非芦苩襥访苰閪郍芵苄芢 苩腂 腀花苪苧苌诟鑎苌貤讆苅轤靶苈鍟苍裈覺苅芠苩腂a遬賻苌裚鎮苉論芵苄腃諺 釒鋀诠詩趷裈詏苌靶裶苰鎱鏼芵苄芢苩腂芻苪苉苦苨腃芢苭苤苩腵鑟醺苌觟迨 顊鎭韍苆鍳蹳覻腶裈詏苌躋跀苰腃 顊鎭裚鎮苌離釨苉鎱鏼芵苄芢苩腂s賂遬苌 裚轚苆视醰酓里苌裚轚苰详闊芵苄芢苩腂诟鑎苉芨芯苩视醰苌豯跏詷苌貤讆邬 觊苉苦苨腃顊鎭軒苌裚鎮苍腃賂遬苌裓蹵苅芠苩裈迣苉腃视醰苌郭鞪苌钽襦苅 芠苩苆芢芤躋鍟芪鎱鏼芳苪苄芢苩腂d芻苌貋觊腃花苪苜苅苍腃軥苉诎顊观鑜 鑎韮苌鉪邫苌裚轚赳鎮芪野进芾苁芽苌苉野芵腃视豶酓里腃苈芩苅苠辗邫苢詧 釥视醰腩extended family腪苰躋雬苉鏼苪芽軀还閪郍芪銍雚芳苪苄芢苩腂 腀花苪苧腃视醰苌苰赬鞶芵芽诟鑎苌 顊鎭裚鎮貤讆苍腃荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩 软 角芬顊鎭苰赬芦苩芤芦苅腃铱迭苉轤靶苈躋鍟苰鋱讟芷苩腂苈芺苈苧腃辊鎾苌 闏鎮芩苧苌 莊荘荎荷荢荗苍腃视醰酓里苌裚鎮苅苍苈芭软角芬苉苦苁苄腵苌苝腶 鎾苧苪苩芩苧苅芠苩腂 艒腄裚鎮苌 荾荎莍荦腛荞苆芻苌還豶闻陀苰苟芮苩離釨 腀1980鑎釣芩苧钭鍗鍲迣趑苉芨芢苄苠邸韍鍉苉赳苭苪苄芫芽 荾荎莍荦腛荞苌 鉾郏苍腃裚轚赳鎮苌靶裶苰賂遬莌荸莋苌醮邫苆貋苑苂芯苄鉔苩芽苟苌躑鞿苰 鋱讟芵苄芢苩腂花花苅腃裚鎮苉論芷苩 荾荎莍荦腛荞苰邮铵芷苩芤芦苅苌辔離
釨苰邮鞝芵苄芨芫芽芢腂裚鎮苍腃豶醪芵苉芭芢苆芢芤裓隡苅腃 荾荎莍荦腛荞 苌苈芩苅苠被隼趂芢腂莋腛荊荘腩Lucas腭2000腮腪苍腃裚轚荦腛荞苌鏯芵芳苆 芵苄腃裈覺苌苦芤苈鍟苰芠芰苄芢苩腂釦裪苍腃裚轚苌醽靬邫苉譎裶芷苩趢鏯 苅芠苩腂鋊迭苌裚轚鞚韰苌躿離苅苍腃跅鋡賀賂遬芲苆苉腃软邶鉮腃讏轚鉮腃 轁识鉮苰遱苋苩芪腃莉荃荴荔荃荎莋酓里苅苌裚轚赳鎮苌跅鍋覻苰赬鞶芷苩苆腃 花苪芾芯苅苍镳轜閪苅芠苩腂辭苈芭苆苠腃釥芫苈裚鎮芾芯苍腃觟讎苌芷苗苄 苉苭芽苁苄譌類芷苩花苆芪陝苜芵芢芪腃迚跗苉遱苋芷芬苄苠腃芻苌荒荘荧苌 誄苉邸鍸苌趂芢荦腛荞芪苆苪苩闛还苍苈芢腂釦鏱苍腃迪辊腅鉮裦苌鋨譠苌貈 鋨苅芠苩腂苇苌苦芤苈鉮裦详閪苰郝鋨芷苩芩苅腃苇苌苦芤苈鉮裦鏠裚轚芪荦腛 荞芩苧钲芯鞎芿苩芩芪貈鋨芳苪苩腂裚轚赳鎮苰閪郍芷苩芤芦苅腃鉮裦详閪苍 轜閪裓隡苌芠苩铍裍苉芷苩镋靶芪芠苩芪腃芠苜苨跗芩芭芵芷芬苩苆腃詥鉮裦 芲苆苉轜閪苈荔莓荶莋芪詭闛苅芫苈芢腂釦蹏苍腃腵鋊迭苌讏轚鉮腶苌鋨譠苅 芠苩腂苆芭苉荁荴莊荊苉芨芢苄苍腃裪躞鍉裚轚苆 諒鞬鍉裚轚芪醽芭苝苧苪苩 芽苟腃苇花苰苠苁苄腵費距苌讏轚鉮腶苆芷苩芩苉苂芢苄腃芠苧芩芶苟趇鞝鍉 苅譱諏鍉苈鋨譠苰鋨苟腃腵道苌轚辈腶苢腵芽苜芽苜遧苰諱芹苄芢苩苆花苫腶 苰鑲辜芵芽芤芦苅荔腛荸荃苰適苟苄芢芭镋靶芪芠苩腂靂裪芩苂跅鍋苈闻陀苍 醶距芵苈芢芪腃辭苈芭苆苠艒荊貎苍醱芯苄讏轚腩遑遈腪芷苩镋靶腩Lucas腭2000腮腪 芪芠苫芤腂 腀釦蹬苉腃鉎芩苧荦腛荞苰轗苟苩苌芩腃苆芢芤離釨芪芠苩腂芷苗苄苌賂遬苰 銀裪鋇郕銲趸芷苩花苆芪荒荘荧鍉苉铱費軀鍉苅芠苩裈迣腃銲趸鉮鍟苉芢苈芢 遬苉苂芢苄醼苌遬苉躿離苰赳芤芩腃銲趸鉮鍟苉讏轚芵苄芢苩遬苉腃芻苪苜苅 苌裚轚苌韰蹪苉苂芢苄遱苋苩芩腃苇芿苧芩芵芩苈芢腂酏軒苌闻陀苌迪趇腃芻 苌迪苉芢苈芢遬苌迮闱苍腃鑎韮苢讳裧邅辀芳芦邳詭苉鎾苧苪苈芢观鑜邫芪趂 芭腃裚轚郦苅苌鋀诠邅辀苈苇苠鋊迭閪芩苧苈芢腂苠芿苫英腃视醰酓里芪鎮芢 苄芵苜苁芽迪趇苍腃苙苆英苇苌迮闱苍鎾苧苪苈芢腂賣軒苌闻陀苌迪趇腃銲趸 躞苉芽苜芽苜芻苌迪苉芢苈芢视醰莁莓药腛苉苂芢苄苌迮闱芪貇鞎芵苄芵苜芤腂 诟鑎苌荾荎莍鍉躋鍟芩苧苌裚轚貤讆苉苍腃视醰苌賂腘苌莁莓药腛苉論芷苩迮 闱芪镋靶苅芠苩芪腃費軀苉苍腃轜閪苈豶醪荦腛荞苰讁苟苩花苆苍铱迭苉鏯芵
芢腂芻苌芽苟腃銲趸躞苉費迪苉芢苈芢遬苌迮闱苍腃費迪苉芢苩遬苌豶醪荦腛 荞芩苧還鋨芷苩镋靶芪芠苩腂芽芾芵腃辊鎾苌豶醪裪苂苰苆苁苄苠腃视醰苌莁 莓药腛苌赳鎮苉苦苁苄视豶辊鎾芪鏠邶鍉苉闏苭苩芽苟腃裚轚赳鎮苌郠难靶裶 苆芵苄腃鉐较苉腵裚轚賣腶苌辊鎾苰鞘靰芷苩花苆苍苅芫苈芢腂 腀芳苧苉跗芩芢鍟苅苠醽芭苌趢鏯芪芠苩腂芽苆芦苎腃鍳蹳閔苆鑟醺閔苌讫詅 苰苇芤郝鋨芷苩芩苠腃銷諺鍉苈裚轚赳鎮苰閪郍芵苦芤苆芷苩苆鉐较苅苍苈芢腂 銆銷諺鍉苉苍腃鍳蹳苌铍裍苍裚轚赳鎮苉苦苁苄闏鎮芷苩芩苧苅芠苩腂苜芽腃 裚轚苌荒荘荧苆芵苄鋊迭赬鞶芷苩讗鞣苌豶醪苉芵苄苠腃苇苌艑鍟諔苰蹧芤芩腃 銼郼讗鞣芩軀跛苌莋腛荧芩苍腃費軀苌荦腛荞邮铵苌跛苉鎪苰鑙苜芷離釨苅芠 苩腂 腀鍔豞鍉苈 荾荎莍荦腛荞腅莂荦莋苍腃Prob
(
δij =1)
=F(
W Wi,{ } { }
j , dij ,{ }
Ai ,{ }
eij)
苌苦芤苈豠躮苰苆苁苄芢苩腂花花苅腃δij 苍鉮裦 i 芩苧鉮裦 j 諔苅苌裪鋨諺諔 鏠苌裚轚苌钭邶苰躦芷荟荾腛闏邔腃Wi 苍鉮裦 i 苉芨芯苩辊鎾腃dij 苍 i 芩苧 j 苖苌讗鞣腃Ai 苍 i 苅苌遬賻苰鏁銥苃芯苩闏邔腃eij 苍賫趷趀苅芠苩腂花花苅苍腃 苇花苉裚轚芵芽芩苉芩芩苭苧芸腃酉釰观鑜苈芷苗苄苌裚轚郦{
j=1,···,m}
苉 苂芢苄苌郠难闏邔苰襅闓苉諜苟苩镋靶芪芠苩腂铭郠难闏邔苍裚轚芵芽芩苇芤 芩苆芢芤躿鍉闏邔苈苌苅腃鑟醺苆鍳蹳苆芢芤苦芤苉鏱鉬苰苆苩迪趇苉苍鏱鉬 酉釰莂荦莋腃蹏苂裈迣苌酉釰躈苰諜苞迪趇苉苍 醽鉬酉釰莂荦莋芪鞘靰芳苪苩腂 腀花花苅腃醼苌酉釰躈苆芵苄苌裚轚郦苰苇芤鋨譠芵苄芨芭芩腃貈苟苄芨芭镋 靶芪芠苩腂苠芵腃裚轚苌裓蹵貈鋨苰诉鍸苉鉐较覻芵苄腃鑟醺苌讏轚軒苉苆苁 苄苍腵芻花苉苆苇苜苩腶芩腵鍳蹳閔苉裚鎮芷苩腶苌芩苌苝芪酉釰躈芾苆芷苪 苎腃鏱鉬酉釰莂荦莋芪鍋靰苅芫苩腂芵芩芵腃費軀苌裚轚酉釰苌跛苉腃閡邔苌 鍳蹳閔芪賳闢苆芵苄芠苨芦腃苜芽腃鑟醺諔苌裚轚苠隳躋苅芫苈芢苆芷苩苆腃 醽鉬酉釰莂荦莋苰鞘靰芷苩镋靶芪芠苩腂 醽鉬酉釰莂荦莋苉苍醽芭苌軭韞芪芠 苨腩McFadden腭1981腮腪腃芻苪芼苪苉鏁銥苆邧雱芪芠苩芪腃花苪苜苅跅苠醽芭蹧苭苪苄芫芽苌芪腃醽趀荶莍荲荢荧腩 multinomial probit腪莂荦莋苅芠苩腩Lucas
腭1985b腮腪腂芵芩芵花苌莂荦莋苍腃酉釰躈芪醝芦苩苆腃芻苪苉铤韡芵苄還鋨芵
苄裙苈苩豗邔苰還鋨芷苩芽苟苉腃酉釰躈芪醽芢莂荦莋苉苍鍋鎖苆苍芢芦苈芢腂 芻花苅遖芽苉靰芢苧苪苩苦芤苉苈苁苄芫芽苌芪 荒莓荦荂荖莇荩莋腅莍荗荢荧 腩conditional logit腪莂荦莋苅芠苩腂花苌莂荦莋苅苍腃閽诏辊鎾苈苇腃裚轚郦苰 鏁銥苃芯苩豶醪观鑜苈酉釰躈醮邫腩choice attributes腪苰靰芢苄腃花苪苧芪 裚轚苌貈鋨苉苇苌苦芤苈襥访苰非芦苩芩苰還鋨芷苩腂銍裓芷苗芫苍腃花苌莂 荦莋苉芨芢苄苍腃賂遬苌醮邫苍腃酉釰躈醮邫苆醊賝跬靰芪芠苩迪趇苌苝腃閪 郍 苉 鏼 苪 苩 花 苆 芪 苅 芫 苩 苆 芢 芤 花 苆 苅 芠 苩腂 荦 腛 莔 荂 荘 苧腩Davis,
Greenwood and Li腭2001腮腪苍腃荁莁莊荊苌軐觯闛貯苌賂遬荦腛荞苰鞘靰芵苄腃
轂諔苌裚鎮靶裶苰腃 荒莓荦荂荖莇荩莋腅莍荗荢荧腅莂荦莋苰靰芢苄還鋨芵苄 芢苩腂
釦艑 郟腀鏬荁荴莊荊苌 顊鎭裚鎮貤讆
艐腄鑷豩l 腀鏬荁荴莊荊苅苍腃1970鑎釣芩苧1980鑎釣辉苟苉芩芯苄腃荁荴莊荊遬苌腵閪 鞣钭鍗腶邭跴芪誮邬芵芽腂花苪苍腃10苉详閪芳苪芽腵荺腛莀莉莓荨腶腩闛鞯鉮腪 苉腃鏁闊苈讖观苌苈芢¡0荁荴莊荊遬苰训邧鍉苉讏轚芳芹腃花苪苧苰腵鏆鞧苌 趑视腶苠芵芭苍腵趕遬躩躡鉮裦腶苆芢芤隼雚苅腃 鏬荁荴莊荊陻趑苌諄躋苌苠 苆苅苌腵钒遬苌认顡趑陻趑腶芩苧苌閪鞣苰赳苁芽苠苌苅芠苩腂铞苧苍腃邶蹙 邫苌鋡芢鉮裦苖苌讏轚苰训邧芳芹苧苪芽芽苟腃鋀顊鎭苰讁苟苄腃腵钒遬腶鉮 裦苖賙靰苰讁苟苩豘購芪训芩苁芽腂芻苪苍裪闻苅苍钒遬鉮裦苌蹙识苌钭鉂苉 苦苨腃钒遬醤苠鋡鋀诠顊鎭軒苰镋靶苆芵苄芢芽芩苧苅芠苩腂 腀裪躞鍉苉腵陻鍹腶苉釘距芷苩荁荴莊荊遬苍腃陀鍉苉苍腵钒遬腶鉮裦苉轚苞 花苆芪苅芫芸腃遬軭苅閪鉦芳苪芽鍳蹳軼規鉮裦苌荺荘荥莋苉视醰苆苠閪鉦芳 苪芽豠苅讏轚芵芽腂铞苧苍腃裪躞鍉苈讏轚軒苅芠苨腃视醰苆苆苠苉轚苞花苆 苍讖芳苪苈芩苁芽¡1腂花苪苉苦苨腃荺腛莀莉莓荨苉芨芯苩鉪辗铤苍芫苭苟苄顣苝腃1989鑎躞鍟苅15跎芩苧64跎苉苂芢苄苝苩苆腃鉪邫10遬苉野芵辗邫6.4 遬苆苈苁苄芢苩腩Ogura腭1996: 414腮腪腂裚轚顊鎭軒苰鞘靰芷苩荖荘荥莀苍腃邭 躡鍉閪鉦芪邶苞豯跏鍉隵辂苰觰貈芷苩芽苟苌腃韰蹪迣芫苭苟苄鏁裙苈邭跴苅 芠苁芽腂 腀荁荴莊荊遬鉪邫邶誈軒苍视醰苆鞣苪腃鍳蹳閔苉裪躞顊鎭軒苆芵苄邶誈芷苩 芽苟腃芻花苉苍遈鞿苢裟韞苈苇苌軹靶芪钭邶芵腃钒遬蹙识芪钭鉂芷苩花苆苉 苈苁芽腂芻苌裪闻腃荺腛莀莉莓荨苉軦苨蹣芳苪芽腃辗邫邢金苌视醰苍腃閃遥 苌諧苰苙苆英苇鉭苧苈芢蹱讟芽芿苆邶誈芵腃邭躡鍉閪鉦苌豯跏鍉隵辂苌芵苭 諱芹苰裪闻鍉苉裸芫軳芯芽腂鉪邫顊鎭軒苰躸苁芽荺腛莀莉莓荨苅苍腃鑟识邶 蹙邶苍苜芷苜芷鋡覺芵腃鑟鉮苌赲鑰芪赌芪苁芽腂 腀 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌隵辂苍腃貋诇荺腛莀莉莓荨讫詅镴诟苉钒遬苌蹙识苰邭跴 鍉苉賄苑趞苞花苆苅觰貈苰遽苧芴苩苰芦苈芩苁芽¡2腂钒遬鉮裦苉陀鍉苉讏轚 苅芫苈芢荁荴莊荊遬苍腃荺腛莀莉莓荨苆钒遬鉮裦苌讫詅軼闓苉轚苝腃芻苪苉 苦苨腃荁荴莊荊遬苌轗鞎芪顣英芾豠苅钭邶芵芽腩Ogura腭1996: 414腀415腮腪腂铞 苧苍腧frontier commuter腨苆苦苎苪芽腂1980鑎芩苧1985鑎苜苅苌諔苉腃150 障遬芪荺腛莀莉莓荨苌鑟醺閔苉腃100障遬苍荺腛莀莉莓荨苌讫詅镴诟苌蹳詘 閔 苉 裚 轚 芵 芽 苆 芳 苪 苄 芢 苩腂 芻 苌 貋 觊腃 荺 腛 莀 莉 莓 荨 芩 苧 苌frontier commuter苍譽醬苉醝见芵芽腂1983鑎苌躞鍟苅腃commuter遬賻苍芨苦芻74障 苉鉂芵腃芻苌醽芭苍荩荞腛莋腩Natal腪腃鎌荐腛荶腩Eastern Cape腪腃芻芵苄 PWV軼規鉮裦苉轗銆芵苄芢芽腩Lipton腭1986: 71腮腪腂芵芩芵腃芻苌苦芤苉钒遬 鉮裦苖鋊芤荁荴莊荊遬裈詏苉腃钒遬鉮裦苌鍳蹳閔苅苍腃镳陀苉讏轚芷苩荁荴 莊荊遬苠醽芩苁芽腂 腀 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌鑰蹾苉郦鞧苁苄腃1986鑎艓貎苉腵荰荘陀腶苆苦苎苪芽讏 轚邧賀苍鍐鑰芳苪芽腂花苪苉苦苨腃苦苨趂芭芩苂裀鋨芵芽辊鎾貹苰讁苟苄腃 鉎苅苠视醰苆芵苄裚鎮芷苩花苆芪苅芫苩苦芤苉苈苁芽腂花苌苦芤苈 顊鎭蹳迪 苌躩青覻苉苦苨腃荁荴莊荊遬视豶苌邶誈邅辀苌購迣芪諺釒芳苪苄芢苩裪闻腃 鍳蹳閔苅苌遬賻钚钭苌镳裀苢腃荺腛莀莉莓荨苉蹣芳苪苩跅镮酷苌離釨苈苇芪 蹷鍅芳苪苄芫芽腂镳裀苰蹷鍅芷苩醤苍腃钒遬鉮裦苅苌賙靰譀觯苌趂芳苉苦苁
苄腃commuter苌裚轚苢腃裪躞鍉讏轚軒芪视醰苰顁苪苄裚轚芵苄芭苩苌苅苍 苈芢芩苆軥銣芵芽腂芻苌裪闻苅腃荁荴莊荊遬苍荺腛莀莉莓荨苌鍹鉮苰芻芤諈 鉐苉軨闺芳苈芢苅芠苫芤芵腃鍳蹳閔苌轚釮镳醫苍隝邫鍉苅腃commuter苉苆苁 苄苠腃苭芴苭芴裚轚芷苩苉苍荒荘荧芪趂芷芬苩苆苠赬芦苧苪芽腂芳苧苉腃陻 鎖苉裚轚芵芽芢苆蹶苁苄芢苩遬苍腃 荰荘陀鑰蹾裈酏苉裡陀苈豠苠諜苟腃鋊诎 观鑜苈鉮裦苖苆腃芷苅苉裚苁苄芵苜苁苄芢苩苍芸芾苆軥銣芳苪芽腂 腀花花苅轤靶苈鍟苍腃软角芬苌鎮譀苃芯苰苇芤赬芦苩芩苅芠苩腂轝鞈苍腃 软 角芬顊鎭苆芢芤苌苍腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌邭躡鍉邧雱覺苉芨芯苩腵躟酐苌跴腶 苉芷芬苈芢腃苆芳苪苄芫芽腂芵芩芵腃費軀苌视豶苌赳鎮苍镋芸芵苠芻苌苦芤 苈鍠鎝鍉苈觰軟苌苝苅譌轱苅芫芸腃 荰荘陀芪陻鎖苉苇苌鋶鍸賸韍苰苠苁苄芢 芽芩苆芢芤鍟苉苂芢苄苠腃貈鋨鍉苈貤讆芪貇芯苄芢苩腃苆芢芤蹷鍅苠芠苩 腩Mabin腭1990: 317腮腪腂苜芽莍荗莃腛荜莓腩Rogerson腭1995: 113腮腪苍腃腵 荁荰莋 荧荷荃荧邭跴苌襥访苍鑆苟苩镋靶苍芠苩芪腃裪闻苅閨躿鍉豯跏鍉靶裶苍腃荾 荎莍莌荸莋苌 諒鞬鍉裚轚顊鎭苌荰荞腛莓苰觰軟芷苩跛苉苍镳观貇苅芠苩腶苆 芵苄芢苩腂 艑腄論顁貤讆 腀 荾荎莍荦腛荞苰鞘靰芵芽诟鑎苌貤讆苆芵苄苍腃莋腛荊荘苌裪顁苌顟閶 腩Lucas腭1985a腮腭1985b腮腭1986腮腪芪芠苩腂铞苌貤讆苠腃 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋苅苍 镠芫芫苪苈芢荁荴莊荊苌 顊鎭裚鎮苌邧鍸鍉靶裶苰腃 遖賃鍔鑨苌顧酧苝苌銆苉 詧銣鍉苉酧苝趞苞躎苝苅芠苁芽腂 腀芽苆芦苎腃Lucas腭1985a腮腭1986腮苅苍腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苌赺蹒顊鎭軒苌蹳迪 苉芨芢苄1970鑎釣銆铕苉譎芫芽邧鍸鍉闏覻苉銍雚芵腃荽荎莍荦腛荞苰鞘靰芵 苄腃軼闓趑芩苧 鏬荁荴莊荊苉讟讋芳苪苩顊鎭韍苌鉥韍邫苆赺蹒顊鎭軒苌軹靶 苰鎯躞闻鋶躮苉苦苨還鋨芵苄芢苩腂芻花苅苍腃 鏬荁荴莊荊軼闓趑芩苧 鏬荁荴 莊荊苌赺蹒苉賙靰芳苪苩顊鎭軒苍腃腵鋀诠苍裚轚苌酏苉腃裚软趑苌詥鉮苅赳 苭苪苩莊荎莋腛荧讒鍟苅閪芩苁苄芢苩腂顊鎭述貏苠鋊迭鉭苨趇芢苰鋊芶苄閪
芩苁苄芢苩腂苞芵苫腃讏轚鉮苉蹣苩花苆苌苙芤芪腃賙靰苰販苂芯苧苪苩芩腃 鑟跬閨苌苅芫镳软鞈苈苇苅荍莃莓荵莋邫芪芠苩苆芢芦苩腶腩Lucas腭1986: 110腮腪腂苂苜苨腃 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋苅覼鋨芳苪苩苌苆苍譴苌辊鎾 莊荘荎苰酺鋨 芵苄芢苩腂铞苍芻苪苉见芦苄腃赺蹒顊鎭軒賙靰苌腵軹靶鏆部腶赜醢苢腃裚软 趑苌裚轚邧賀苢 鏬荁荴莊荊苌顊鎭邭跴鍝誷苈苇苌邧鍸鍉襥访苠赬鞶芵苄芢苩腂 腀苜芽腃Lucas腭1985b腮苍腃 荻荣莏荩苅軻轗芳苪芽 荾荎莍荦腛荞腩National
Migration Survey of Botswana 1978腀79腪苰鞘靰芵腃 荻荣莏荩苌顊鎭軒芪 鏬荁荴莊 荊苉赳芭迪趇苌鏱鉬酉釰莂荦莋苆腃趑鏠苅裚鎮芷苩迪趇苌艕荰荞腛莓苌酉釰 躈苉苂芢苄苌醽趀荶莍荲荢荧腅莂荦莋苌還鋨苰赳苁苄芢苩腂軀还貋觊苍腃鍳 蹳閔苅苌艐遬苌躸识苌觰迁苍艐遬裈迣苌遖芽苈裚轚軒苰跬苨软芷观鑜邫苰躦 趴芵苄芢苩腂花花苅苍腃賂遬苌赳鎮貈鋨苍腃苜芸腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苉裚轚芷苩芩 苇芤芩苰貈苟腃躟苉荻荣莏荩趑鏠苉蹣苩苈苧苎苇花苅苇苌苦芤苉鎭芭芩苰貈 苟苩腃苆芢芤艑鉩詋苌裓蹶貈鋨苰酺鋨芵苄芢苩腂
釦艒 郟腀鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩 顊鎭裚鎮腜腜詔諏
艐腄荦腛荞腀趡觱苍腃荦腛荞苆芵苄腃鏬荁邭镻鎝豶诇腩Statistics South Africa腪芪1993鑎 芩苧1999鑎苜苅隈鑎軻轗芵苄芢苩 October Household Survey (OHS)¡3
芨苦苑 1996鑎苉赳苁芽趑邨銲趸腩Census 96腪苌賂镛10膓荔莓荶莋苰鞘靰芵芽腂花苪 苧苌荦腛荞苍芻苪芼苪苌鏁銥芪芠苩腂苜芸腃 OHS苍腃1993鑎芩苧隈鑎腃苙 苚貈苜苁芽荴荈腛荽荢荧苉苦苨 顊鎭蹳迪苌鎮購苰銲趸芷苩芽苟苉軀蹻芳苪苄 芢苩腂苆芭苉1995鑎裈赾苍銲趸趀雚芪轛軀芵腃1996腃97鑎苉苍 软角芬顊鎭軒 苉苂芢苄苌迚跗苈荦腛荞腃1997鑎苉苍邢金軥苌裚轚苌韰蹪苉苂芢苄苌迚跗苈 荦腛荞苰軻類芵苄芢苩腂趑邨銲趸苍腃讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苰諜苟苄芢苩苆芢芤鍟 苅腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苆芵苄辉苟苄苌腵酓趑鍉腶銲趸苅芠苩腂趑邨銲趸荦腛荞苌跅
釥苌鏁銥苍腃芢苭苤苩荺腛莀莌荘苢腃赺蹒鉮裦苈苇苉芠苩腵荺荘荥莋腶苆苦 苎苪苩迪辊苌鉐遧顊鎭軒邢金苜苅荊药腛芵苄芨苨腃花苪苜苅荸腛莋苉闯苜苪 苄芢芽腃鏬荁跅镮酷苌賶躮荦腛荞芪諜苜苪苄芢苩花苆苅芠苩腂苜芽腃荦腛荞 苉苍趑邨銲趸鉮详详閪苌GIS荦腛荞芪镴醮芵苄芨苨腃趑邨銲趸苢 OHS荦腛荞 苌诳諔閪镺苰荒莓荳莅腛荞迣苅閪郍腅镜費苅芫苩苦芤苉苈苁苄芢苩腂苜芽腃 1996腠97鑎苌 OHS苍1996鑎趑邨銲趸苆銲趸详裦详閪苰裪鉶芳芹苄芢苩腂陻 郟芨苦苑躟郟苅苍腃花苪苧苌荦腛荞苰镋靶苉覞芶苄酧苝趇苭芹苄鞘靰芷苩腂 艑腄邢金苌裚轚邫購苌躖軀詭鑆 腀苜芸腃1997鑎苌邢金軥苌裚轚譌類苅苝苩芩芬苨腃荁荴莊荊遬腩趕遬腪苌裚 轚詭鞦芪腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧鑰蹾酏賣苉腃醼苌遬軭苆铤苗苄詩鉩苉芠芪苁芽苆 芢芤还讒苍苈芢腂遽艐苍腃20跎芩苧50跎苜苅苌邢金軥苌苈芩苅腃銲趸躞鍟芩 苧觟讎苉酫苁苄裚轚豯貱苰艒觱苜苅鋇郕苅芫芽賂遬苰野进苉腃裚轚钭邶苌豯 貱詭鞦苰遬軭闊苉豶蹚芵腃躞諔躲苉荶莍荢荧芵芽苠苌苅芠苩腂觟讎苌裚轚豯 貱苌閪镺苍銲趸躞苌荔莓荶莋苌鑎韮閪镺苌襥访苰軳芯苩苌苅腃花花苅苍芲芭 芨芨苜芩苈豘購苆赬芦苄腃苆芭苉1980鑎裈赾苌闏覻苆遬軭諔詩趷苉銍雚芵苄 苙芵芢腂花苪苰苝苩苆腃1986鑎苌 荰荘陀鑰蹾苦苨苠腃1989鑎苌荦荎莉腛荎邭 負邬鞧苉苦苩隯軥覻苌適鍗苉苆苠苈苁苄腃裚轚苌荵腛莀芪譎芫苄芢苩花苆芪 閪芩苩腂芻花苉遬軭苌趷苍芠苜苨苈芭腃苆芭苉腃1990鑎釣苉鏼苁苄芩苧苍腃 钒遬苌裚轚邫購苌趂苜苨芪苞芵苫貰銘苅芠苩腂花苪芾芯苅苍腃荁荴莊荊遬苌 讏轚邧賀苰赳苁苄芫芽 荰荘陀苌腵賶躮腶苌鑰蹾躩里芪腃荁荴莊荊遬苌裚轚邫 購苰趂苟芽苆苍芢芦苈芢腂 腀芵芩芵腃軀跛苌裚轚邔苰販苄苝苩苆腃裳进苍裪闏芷苩腂遽艑苍腃遽艐苆鎯 芶野进荔莓荶莋苉野芵苄腃苢苍苨遬軭闊苉腃荔莓荶莋迣苅苌裚轚苌钭邶貏邔 苰鑎芲苆苉荊荅莓荧芵芽苠苌苅芠苩腂花苪苰苝苩苆腃遬賻苌釥醽邔苰部苟苩 荁荴莊荊遬苌裚轚貏邔苍1989鑎裈赾腃譽貃苉醝见芵苄芢苩腂隯軥覻苌適鍗苍腃 費軀苌韊鍉荃莓荰荎荧苆芵苄腃苢苍苨趕遬顊鎭韍苌蹳迪苖苌讟讋袳韍苰鑻醝
芳芹芽苆芢芦苩腂花苌花苆苍腃鉮裦苌 顊鎭蹳迪苉釥芫苈荃莓荰荎荧苰非芦苄 芢苩花苆苰靥裕苉酺醜芳芹苩腂钒遬苌裚轚邫購苌趂苜苨苠腃花苌讟讋袳韍苉 野芵苄鑨邶鍉苉钭邶芵芽苠苌芩苠芵苪苈芢腂 腀芻苪苅苍腃花苌苦芤苈讟讋袳韍芪苇花苌鉮裦苅钭邶芵苄芢苩芩苰詭鑆芷苩 芽苟苉腃裚轚赳鎮芪苇苌苦芤苈鉮裦諔苅赳苭苪芽芩苰苦苨迚跗苉苝苄芢芭腂 镜艐苍腃1950鑎芩苧1988鑎裈酏腩釦蝔諺腆 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧諺腪苉钭邶芵芽裚轚 苆1988鑎裈赾腩釦蝕諺腆 荼荘荧荁荰莋荧荷荃荧諺腪苉钭邶芵芽裚轚苅苍腃芻苌 裚鎮荰荞腛莓芪裙苈苩芩苠芵苪苈芢苆芢芤覼鋨苌苠苆苉腃裚鎮荰荞腛莓钭邶 詭鞦苌闏覻苰豶蹚芵芽苠苌苅芠苩腂苜芸腃詥諺芲苆苉腃軀跛苉裚轚苰赳苁芽 20跎芩苧50跎苌趕遬邢金軥苉苂芢苄腃芻苌裚轚芪腃顚苂苌鉮裦详閪腩a鍳蹳閔腃 s鑟醺閔腃d鍳蹳閔苌荘莉莀腃f鍳蹳軼闓閔苌荘莉莀腃g鑟醺閔苌荘莉莀腃h躄 遽艐 腀鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩遬軭闊裚鎮詭鞦苌闏覻 1975 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 年 Black/African Coloured Indian/Asian White 確 率 腩銍腪腀野进苍腃1997鑎躞鍟苅腃觟讎苉酫苁苄艒觱苌裚轚苜苅鋇郕苅芫芽20跎芩苧50跎苜苅苌邢金軥腂 腩软辊腪腀 OHS腃1997苦苨镍軒豶蹚腂
遽艑 腀鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩遬軭闊裚鎮貏邔苌闏覻 1975 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 年 （件） Black/African Coloured Indian/Asian White 腩銍腪腀野进苍遽艐苉鎯芶腂 腩软辊腪腀遽艐苉鎯芶腂 镜艐 腀鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩鉮裦諔裚鎮荰荞腛莓钭邶詭鞦苌闏覻 譎鍟鉮裦 轉鍟鉮裦 閽诏 鍳蹳閔 鍳蹳 荘莉莀 鍳蹳軼闓 荘莉莀 鑟醺 荘莉莀 躄鍉鑟覀 鑟醺閔 鍳蹳閔 1.089膖 0.556膖 0.486膖 0.946 0.860膖 0.662膖 0.908 鍳蹳荘莉莀 3.460膖 3.169膖 0.841 0.841 2.522 1.778膖 2.466 鍳蹳軼闓荘莉莀 2.991膖 5.885 3.454膖 2.522 3.04 2.522膖 2.901 鑟醺荘莉莀 1.681 腜 腜 3.783 6.726 1.934 2.56 躄鍉鑟覀 0.841膖 0.42 3.363 腜 1.390膖 1.121膖 1.26 鑟醺閔 0.626膖 0.28 0.747 0.323 0.280膖 1.033膖 0.876 閽诏 1.086 1.131 1.481 1.111 0.857 0.946 1 腩銍腪腀釦蝕諺腩1988鑎裈赾腪苉芨芯苩钭邶詭鞦苰腃釦蝔諺腩1950腠88鑎腪苌芻苪苉野芷苩铤苅镜 費芵苄芢苩腂膖苍钭邶镰鍸50裈迣苉諮苃芭豶蹚貋觊苰躦芵苄芢苩腂腜苍諏醪苈芵苰躦芷腂 腩软辊腪腀 OHS腃1997苦苨镍軒豶蹚腂
靌鑟鉮腪苅苝苄腃苇苌详閪芩苧苇苌详閪苖裚鎮芵芽苌芩腃芻苌铤鞦苰艕腾艕 苌荽荧莊荢荎荘迣苅镜費芷苩腂芻苌芤芦苅腃釦蝕諺苌荽荧莊荢荎荘苌邔鉬苌 釦蝔諺苌荽荧莊荢荎荘苌邔鉬苉野芷苩铤苰苆苁芽苠苌芪镜艐苅芠苨腃芷苈苭 芿腃賂腘苌裚鎮荰荞腛莓苌钭邶詭鞦苌腵闏覻腶苰躦芵苄芢苩花苆苉苈苩腩腧艐腨 芪腵闏覻苈芵腶苉醊鎖芷苩腪腂花苪苰苝苩苆腃釦蝕諺苉苍腃鍳蹳閔荘莉莀芨苦 苑鍳蹳軼闓閔荘莉莀芩苧鍳蹳閔苖苌鞬鏼芪釥芫芭醝芦苄芨苨腃鍳蹳軼闓荘莉 莀膨鍳蹳閔荘莉莀膨鍳蹳閔苆芢芤顊鎭韍苌鞬苪芪苝苄苆苪苩腂苜芽鍳蹳閔腅 鍳蹳軼闓閔苌荘莉莀諔苅苌裚鎮苠芫苭苟苄誈钭覻芵苄芢苩腂 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧 苌闶觳苉苦苁苄腃荁荴莊荊遬顊鎭軒芪腃讌钒遬鉮裦苅芠苩鍳蹳閔苉購芩苁苄腃 譽醬苉鞬鏼芵苄芢苩花苆芪躦趴芳苪苩腂裪闻腃鍳蹳閔苰譎鍟苆芵芽裚鎮苍芨 芨苞苋貸辭芵苄芨苨腃郦苉苝芽趕遬遬賻苌裚鎮韊苌譽貃苈迣辸苆閹芹苄腃鍳 蹳閔芪遬賻苌譺軻鉮裦苆芵苄苌雰誄苰觊芽芵苄芢苩花苆芪閪芩苩腂 艒腄 软角芬顊鎭軒苌鉮鞝鍉閪镺 腀花苪苜苅苍腃邢金軥芪裚轚芷苩詭鞦苰躞豮韱鍉苉苆苁苄赬蹀芵苄芫芽芪腃 芻苪苅苍腃 软角芬顊鎭軒苌赳鎮苍苇芤苅芠苫芤芩腂 软角芬顊鎭軒苌赳鎮苉苂 芢苄苌躞豮韱鍉閪郍苍腃 OHS苅苍趢鏯苈芽苟腃花花苅苍腃软角芬赳鎮苆 荁 荰莋荧荷荃荧躞釣苌讏轚邧雱苆苌論豗苰苆苨芠芦芸詭鑆芵苄苝苩腂遽艒苍腃 讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苌鉮鞝鍉閪镺苰腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧賣苌1996鑎苌赳邭鉮详
腩Magisterial District腪迣苅跄費芵芽苠苌苅芠苩¡4腂遽艓苍腃1997鑎 OHS苅詭鑆
芳苪芽腃邢金莌荸莋苅苝芽软角芬邫購苌鉮鞝鍉閪镺苅芠苩腂花花苅苍腃视豶 苌莁莓药腛苆苝苈芹苩苠苌苌腃艐鑎苉艐荊貎裈迣视苰鞣苪苄芢苩遬苰腃腵 软 角芬顊鎭軒腶苆鋨譠芵¡5腃视豶苌苈芩苉腃花苌苦芤苈遬芪辭苈芭苆苠艐遬芢 苩趕遬视豶苌铤鞦苰腃1997鑎苌赳邭鉮裦芲苆苉躦芵苄芢苩腂花苪苰苝苩苆腃 荎莏荙腛莋腛腩KwaZulu腪腃荻荶荞荣莏荩腩Bophuthatswana腪苰苍芶苟苆芷苩 苙苆英苇苌讌荺腛莀莉莓荨鉮裦苅腃软角芬邫購苍铱迭苉趂芢花苆芪閪芩苩腂 芵芩芵鎯躞苉腃芻苪裈詏苉陫荐腛荶轂腩Northern Cape腪腃躩青轂腩Orange
Free State腪苈苇苌裪閔苅腃软角芬鞦苌趂芢鉮裦芪醶距芷苩花苆苠苝苄苆苪苩腂 腀镜艑苍腃软角芬苌钭邶铤鞦苰腃鉮裦闊腃邢金苌裚鎮豯貱闊苉躦芵芽苠苌苅 芠苩腂苜芸艐赳雚苍腃邢金軥苌艔鑎裈鏠苅苌裚轚豯貱苅芠苩腂难苧芩苉讌荺腛 莀莉莓荨苦苨苠讌钒遬鉮裦苌苙芤芪腃跅诟裚轚苰豯貱芵苄芢苩邢金芪醽芭腃 賣軒芪邢金苌裚鎮郦苆芵苄酉苎苪苄芢苩豘購苰躦芵苄芢苩腂芻苪苉野芵 苄腃艑赳雚苉躦芵苄芠苩 软角芬顊鎭軒苌钭邶铤鞦苉苂芢苄苍腃钽野苉讌荺腛 莀莉莓荨苌苙芤芪趂芢腂芳苧苉艒腼艓赳雚苍腃邢金軥苌裚轚豯貱苌靌隳闊苉腃 软角芬苌钭邶詭鞦苰鉮裦闊苉铤該芵芽苠苌苅芠苩腂芷苩苆腃跅诟艔鑎苌裚轚 豯貱苌芠苩邢金苆苈芢邢金苅苍腃酏軒苌软角芬钭邶鞦芪苦苨辬芳芢芪腃裓詏 苈花苆苉芻苌趷苍釥芫芭苈芢腂苜芽腃讌钒遬鉮裦苆讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苅苍迣苌 豘購苉釥芫苈趷苍苈芢腂邢金苌裚轚苆软角芬苆苍闊賂苌鎮譀苉苦苩赳鎮苅芠 遽艒腀1996鑎苌赳邭详閪苅苝芽讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苌閪镺
Former White District Former Self―Governing Territories (SGT) Former Independent States (IS) White and SGT Merged White and IS Merged
N E W
S
腩銍腪腀赳邭详触腩Magistical District腪苍腃1996鑎苌苠苌苉諮苃芫腃Central Statistics Service腭1989腮 腭1993腮腭1995腮腃 OHS1993腀1997苌District code苈苇苰鞘靰芵苄跬邬芵芽腂遆閪芯苍腃讌钒遬鉮裦腃
讌荺腛莀莉莓荨腩Self腀Governing Territories腱SGT腲芨苦苑Independent States腱IS腲腪腃芨苦苑 讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苆讌钒遬鉮裦芪趇閹芳苪芽鉮裦苉閪韞芵苄芢苩腂裈覺苌芷苗苄苌鉮遽跬邬苉苍 Census 1996苌CD腀ROM苉镴邏芵苄芢苩Arc腀GIS fi le苰鞘靰芵芽腂
遽艓腀荁荴莊荊遬视豶苌软角芬钭邶铤鞦腩1997鑎腪 0 ∼ 5％ 5 ∼ 10％ 10 ∼ 20％ 20％ ∼ N E W S 腩銍腪腀 OHS腃1997銲趸躞鍟苅腃视醰苌莁莓药腛芪辭苈芭苆苠艐遬腃讏轚赳邭详触腩Magistical District腪詏苉鎭芫苉软苄芢苩荁荴莊荊遬视豶苌邔苌腃銲趸野进荁荴莊荊遬视豶邔酓里苉野 芷苩铤鞦腂 镜艑腀邢金軥裚鎮铤鞦苆软角芬铤鞦 酓鉮裦 讌钒遬鉮裦 讌荺腛莀莉莓荨 邢金軥芪費讏轚鉮苉艔鑎裈迣轚英苅芢苩 邢金苌酓邢金苉野芷苩铤鞦 0.16 0.214 0.073 酓邢金銆苌软角芬铤鞦 0.178 0.062 0.364 邢金軥芪費讏轚鉮苉艔鑎裈迣轚英苅芢苩 邢金銆苅苌软角芬铤鞦 0.195 0.066 0.369 邢金軥芪費讏轚鉮苉艔鑎裈鏠苉裚轚芵苄 芫芽邢金銆苅苌软角芬铤鞦 0.088 0.046 0.297 腩銍腪腀花花苅软角芬铤鞦苆苍腃软角芬軒芪辭苈芭苆苠艐遬芢苩邢金邔苌腃野进苆芷苩邢金邔 苉野芷苩铤鞦苅芠苩腂 腩软辊腪腀 OHS腃1997苦苨镍軒跬邬腂
苩花苆芪躦趴芳苪苩腂 腀芻苪苅苍腃误里鍉苉苇苌苦芤苈豯跏鍉靶裶芪软角芬苌郦苌酉釰苰貈鋨苃芯 苄芢苩苌芩腃芻花苉苍讌荺腛莀莉莓荨賅靌苌鏁銥苢邢金苌裚轚豯貱苉苦苩趷 苍芠苩苌芩腂躟苌郟苅苍腃花苪苧苌鍟苉苂芢苄苦苨迚跗苈 豶韊閪郍苰赳芤腂
釦艓 郟腀鏬荁荴莊荊趑鏠苉芨芯苩软角芬郦苌貈鋨腜腜 豶韊閪郍
¡6 艐腄荦腛荞苆軀还闻陀 腀苜芸腃1997鑎苉芨芢苄354苉閪誄芳苪苄芢苩赳邭鉮裦腩Magisterial district腃 裈覺MD苆賄苔腪苌苈芩苅腃1995腠99鑎苌 OHS苉芨芢苄腃辭苈芭苆苠艐鑎苍 諏醪芳苪芽邢金苌醶距芷苩323鉮裦腩MD腪苰郶距鍉讏轚观鑜鉮裦苆鋨譠芵芽腂 閪郍苉諜苟苩賂遬荔莓荶莋苍腃1997鑎 OHS苌Migrant fi le苌8126遬苌芤芿腃 赳芫郦MD苰觱鎚芵苄芢苩趕遬7600遬苆芷苩腂芽芾芵腃芻苌芤芿840遬芪腃 裚轚郦苍鎯裪MD鏠苉醶距芷苩腂芻苪苰辜芭6760遬芪腃醼苌MD苉讏轚芵苄 芢苩腂 腀裚轚郦鉮裦苌貈鋨靶裶苰閪郍芷苩跛苉花花苅靰芢苩闻陀苍腃釦艐郟苅运觮 芵芽荒莓荦荂荖莇荩莋腅莍荗荢荧閪郍苅芠苩腂芷苈苭芿腃賂遬芪软角芬郦苰 赬芦苩苆芫苌賳闢苆芵苄腃費距轚英苅芢苩MD苠諜苟苩苆323鉮裦芠苨腃花 苌銆芩苧腃视醰苉苆苁苄苌諺釒賸靰苰跅釥覻芷苩苦芤苉裚轚郦苰貈苟苩苆赬 芦苩¡7腂花花苅腃软角芬苍賣苉蹣芵芽视醰酓里苌芽苟苌 諺釒辊鎾苌醝釥芨苦 苑裀鋨覻苌諏鍟芩苧赳芤芽苟腃鋊迭苌 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋苆苍裙苈苨腃 莊荘荎荖荆 荁莊莓荏苌靶酦苠赬鞶芷苩镋靶芪芠苩腂芷苈苭芿腃裈覺苌苦芤苈莂荦莋苰還 鋨芷苩腂 腀腀P h(
=i,d=j)
=exp(
βXij/∑
kβXik)
腀花花苅腃趶闓苍腃邢金苆芵苄轚苞 MD(h) 芪 i 苅芠苩 软角芬顊鎭軒芪腃裚 鎮郦 MD(d)苆芵苄 j苰酉苔詭鞦苰镜芷腂花苪苰腃襅闓苌苦芤苉腃βXik 苌論邔 苅貈鋨芳苪苩莍荗荘荥荂荢荎論邔苅镜費芳苪苩苆覼鋨芷苩腂Xij 苍腃邢金苌 轚苞 MD腃i 腃苆裚轚郦 MD腃j 腃苌論豗苅鋨譠芳苪苩醮邫苅芠苨腃趡觱苍腃鏱 鉮裦諔苌裚鎮讗鞣腃閽诏鋀诠詩趷腃閽诏鋀诠迣辸鞦詩趷腃閽诏鋀诠苌闏鎮苌 认閪蹕腃芨苦苑花苪苧苌賰足趀苰鏼苪苩花苆苉芷苩腂苆芭苉腃閽诏鋀诠苌闏 鎮苌认閪蹕苉芩芩苩豗邔苍腃软角芬郦酉鋨苉跛芵苄腃賣苉蹣芵芽视醰苉苆苁 苄苌諫貯閪蹕苌莁莊荢荧苰苇苪芾芯赬鞶芵苄芢苩芩腃躯闊芷苩腂鞝顟鍉苈靜 醪苆芵苄苍腃视醰苌芢苩MD苆鋀诠闏鎮苌认閪蹕芪辬芳芢MD苙苇腃 莊荘荎 荖荆荁莊莓荏苌雚鍉苉諓苝苩苆腃软角芬郦苆芵苄苌隣韍芪釥芫芢苆赬芦苧苪 苩腂 腀詥鉮裦苉芨芯苩遬軭闊苌閽诏鋀诠辊鎾苍1997鑎 OHS苰腃閽诏鋀诠辊鎾迣 辸鞦苍1995腠96鑎苆1998腠99鑎苌 OHS苌趷苰苆苁苄豶蹚芵芽腂鋀诠迣辸鞦 苌闏鎮苌鉮裦諔醊論苍腃1995腠99鑎苌 OHS芩苧鎾苧苪苩MD閽诏鋀诠荰荬莋 芩苧豶蹚芵芽腂趕遬苌辊鎾芪諏醪芳苪苈芢鉮裦苉苂芢苄苍腃軼闓鉮裦苌鋀诠 苌閽诏苉苦苨鏠酽苰赳苁芽腂芷苗苄苌隼雚鋀诠苍腃轂腩province腪莌荸莋苌 迁铯軒閨覿蹷邔苰鞘靰芵苄軀躿覻芵芽腂花苪苉苦苁苄鎾苧苪芽腃荁荴莊荊遬 苌閽诏辊鎾苆閽诏辊鎾迣辸鞦苌鉮鞝閪镺苰遽艔苆遽艕苉苌芹苄芢苩腂 腀詥鉮裦諔苌讗鞣赳韱苍裈覺苌苦芤苉赜鉺芵芽腂苜芸腃1996鑎趑邨銲趸苉諜 苜苪苩荦荗荞莋鉮遽苰鏇苝趞苝腃触雊迣苅腃詥MD苌轤道苆蹶苭苪苩鍟苰軨 跬识苅酉苑腃芻苌鍟苌補鍸豯鍸苰銊软芷苩腂芻苌芤芦苅腃鑃裓苌MD轤道諔 苌鉮镜雊讗鞣苰豶蹚芵芽腂花苌苦芤苉芵苄赜鉺芳苪芽讗鞣赳韱苌貇鍟苆芵苄腃 a銼郼讗鞣苅芠苨腃軀跛苌裚鎮讗鞣苆苍芩芬苧苈芢腃s鏼苨酧英芾讫詅郼苰 钽襦芵苈芢腃d鉮鞝鍉轤道芪遬賻苌轤道苆苍芩芬苧苈芢腃f 鏬荁荴莊荊鏁靌 苌腃讫詅蹙识苖苌软角芬苉芨芯苩裚鎮讗鞣芪觟釥镝覿芳苪苩腃苈苇芪芠苨芤 苩腂花苪苧苌鍟苰芷苗苄鑺鞶芷苩花苆苍費軀苉苍隳鞝芾芪腃陻閪郍苅苍sf 苰赬鞶芵腃韗郚MD荟荾腛苰靰裓芵腃讗鞣苆苍隳論豗苈荻腛荟腛襺芦苅苌裚 鎮苌襥访苰腃闊鍲闟醨芷苩花苆苉芷苩腂
遽艔腀荁荴莊荊遬苌閽诏辊鎾腩1997鑎腪閪镺 所得第２五分位地域 所得第１五分位地域 （低所得） 所得第３五分位地域 所得第４五分位地域 所得第５五分位地域 （高所得） N E W S 腩銍腪腀 OHS腃1997銲趸躞鍟苅躸识軒苌辊鎾苰荛莍苆芵苄芢苩腂 遽艕腀荁荴莊荊遬苌閽诏辊鎾闏覻鞦腩1995腠99鑎腪閪镺 −0.613 ∼ 0.037 −3.025 ∼−0.613 0.037 ∼ 0.479 0.479 ∼ 1.146 1.146 ∼ 5.716 N E W S 腩銍腪腀 OHS腃1995腠1999苌諔苌辊鎾邬銷鞦腂
腀還豶苰赳芤荔莓荶莋苆芵苄腃裈覺苌諮辀苅閪誄芳苪芽荔荵荔莓荶莋苠靰芢 苩腂芻苪苍腃腵邢金軥芪艔鑎裈鏠苉裚轚苰豯貱芵苄芢苩芩铛芩腶腃芻芵苄腃腵1997 鑎苉讏轚芵苄芢苩MD芪腃讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苉醮芵苄芢苩芩腃讌钒遬鉮裦腩White South Africa腪苉醮芵苄芢苩芩腶¡8腃苅芠苩腂花苪苍腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧躞釣苌邧 雱芪腃软角芬苌鎮譀苉苇苌苦芤苈襥访苰非芦苄芢苩芩鉭苩芽苟苅芠苩腂芻苪 苍腃芽苆芦苎腃训邧裚轚苰钺苁芽讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苉讏轚芷苩邢金苦苨苍讌钒 遬鉮裦苉芷苅苉轚英苅芢苩邢金腃艔鑎裈迣費距苌讏轚鉮苉轚英苅芢苩邢金苦 苨苍艔鑎裈鏠苉邢金軥芪裚鎮芵苄芢苩邢金苌苙芤芪腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧躞釣苌 邧雱芩苧醊野鍉苉躩青苅芠苩观鑜邫芪趂芢腃苆芢芤覼鋨苉諮苃芢苄芢苩腂醊 野鍉苉 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌邧雱芩苧躩青苈视豶苅芠苁苄苠软角芬芪醶距芷苩苌 苅芠苪苎腃芻苪苍 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌邧雱芩苧隢芾觰闺芳苪苈芢视豶苉铤苗苄腃 苦苨讟讋醤苌靶裶苉苦苁苄酉苎苪苄芢苩观鑜邫芪趂芢¡9腂镜艒苅苭苪苭苪苍腃 讌钒遬鉮裦苅芠苁苄苠腃邢金軥苌裚轚苰豯貱芵芽邢金苅苠 软角芬顊鎭軒苰软 芵苄芢苩花苆苰詭鑆芵芽芪腃花苪苧苌鉮裦苅苌软角芬貈鋨靶裶苌训軣苰铤該 镜艒腀荒莓荦荂荖莇荩莋腅莍荗荢荧閪郍苉靰芢苩闏邔苌郠难 闏邔 鋨譠 閽诏辊鎾詩趷 腩10障莉莓荧腪 轁识鉮MD苆讏轚鉮MD苉苂芢苄腃荁荴莊荊遬苌1997鑎苌閽诏辊鎾 苰豶蹚芵腃芻苌趷苰苆苩腂 閽诏辊鎾邬銷鞦趷 腩野邔腪 轁识鉮MD苆讏轚鉮MD苉苂芢苄腃裈覺苰钒遬苉苂芢苄豶蹚芵趷苰 苆苩腂 log腯腩1998鑎閽诏辊鎾腻1999鑎閽诏辊鎾腪/2腰腼log腯腩1995鑎閽诏辊鎾 腻1996鑎閽诏辊鎾腪/2腰 閽诏辊鎾邬銷鞦苌认 閪蹕 Y鑎苌閽诏辊鎾邬銷鞦膁Y鑎苌閽诏辊鎾膀腩Y腼1腪鑎苌閽诏辊鎾苆鋨 譠芵腃詥MD苉苂芢苄腃1996腃97腃98腃99鑎苌荁荴莊荊遬苌閽诏辊鎾 邬銷鞦苰豶蹚芵腃轁识鉮MD苆讏轚鉮MD苉苂芢苄腃认閪蹕苰苆苩腂 讏轚鉮芩苧轁识鉮苜 苅苌讗鞣腩100km腪 讏轚鉮MD苌銆道苆轁识鉮MD苌銆道苆苌諔苌讗鞣腂 韗郚鉮裦荟荾腛 323苌轁识鉮MD腩酉釰躈腪苌芤芿腃讏轚鉮MD苉韗郚芷苩MD苉艐腃 芻苪裈詏苉艏芪鏼苩荟荾腛闏邔
芷苩花苆苅腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧躞釣苌邧雱芪腃软角芬苌豯跏鍉鎮譀苃芯苉苇苌 苦芤苈襥访苰非芦苄芢苩芩鏇苝苆苩苌芪苋苧芢苅芠苩腂镜艒苉腃還鋨苉鞘靰 芵芽闏邔苌鋨譠苌迚跗苰躦芵苄芠苩腂 艑腄 豶韊閪郍貋觊 腀镜艓苉 荒莓荦荂荖莇荩莋腅莍荗荢荧苉苦苩閪郍貋觊苰躦芵苄芢苩腂花花芩 苧鏇苝苆苧苪苩花苆苍裈覺苌苦芤苉苜苆苟苩花苆芪苅芫苩腂 a 腀辊鎾詩趷苍芷苗苄靌裓苉邳苉腃辊鎾邬銷鞦詩趷苍靌裓苈苠苌苍芷苗苄 邳苉腃软角芬郦苌酉釰詭鞦苉襥访苰非芦苄芢苩腂花苪苧苌賸觊苍腃讌钒 遬鉮裦苦苨苠讌荺腛莀莉莓荨鉮裦苉芨芢苄苦苨貰銘苅芠苩苦芤苉苝芦苩腂 s腀裚鎮讗鞣苍閉苉腃韗郚鉮裦荟荾腛苍邳苉腃芨苌芨苌靌裓苉软角芬郦酉 釰詭鞦苉襥访苰非芦苄芢苩腂讗鞣芪非芦苩襥访苍腃讌钒遬鉮裦苦苨苠讌 荺腛莀莉莓荨鉮裦苉芨芢苄苦苨軣芢苦芤苉苝芦苩腂 d腀辊鎾迣辸鞦苌认閪蹕苍腃酓铊鍉苉腃软角芬郦苌酉釰詭鞦苉閉苌襥访苰 非芦苄芢苩腂芽芾芵花苌襥访苍腃讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苉芨芢苄训芭腃苜芽腃 觟讎艔鑎諔苉邢金軥芪裚轚苰豯貱芵苄芢苩视豶苅训芢苦芤苉苝芦苩腂芽 芾芵腃讌钒遬鉮裦苉轚苞邢金苉論芵苄苍腃认閪蹕苌襥访苍靌裓苅苍苈芢腂 腀花苪苧苰觰軟芷苩苆腃躟苌苦芤苉苈苩苅芠苫芤腂讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苅苍腃讌 钒遬鉮裦苆铤苗苩苆腃视豶苉苆苁苄 软角芬顊鎭軒苰软芷鎮譀苆芵苄腃 諺釒辊 鎾迣辸苆 莊荘荎閪蹕苌苇芿苧苠轤靶苅芠苁芽腂芻苌跛苉裚鎮讗鞣苍芻苪苙苇 轤靶苅苈芭腃芻苌花苆苍讌荺腛莀莉莓荨苌醽芭芪闓讫苉裊鉵芵苄芢芽苆芢芤 鉮鞝鍉苈躖迮芩苧苠酺醜芳苪苩腂 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧賣苉邢金苆芵苄苌讏轚鉮苰 闏赘芵芽视豶苉苆苁苄苍腃软角芬苌雚鍉苌裪苂芪 諺釒辊鎾苌迣辸苅芠苩花苆 苍闏苭苨苈芢芪腃辊鎾 莊荘荎閪蹕苌轤靶邫苍腃讏轚鉮苰闏赘芵苄芢苈芢视豶 苉铤苗苄苦苨芢苁芻芤醝芵苄芢苩腂芻苪苍腃芨芻苧芭腃邢金酓里苆芵苄苌裚 轚苍腃 諺釒辊鎾苌迣辸苰苠芽苧芵芽苆芵苄苠 莊荘荎閪蹕苌譀鑜苰觊芽芳苈芢 芽苟苉腃软角芬苉苦苩 莊荘荎閪蹕苌轤靶鍸芪腵醊野鍉苉腶迣辸芷苩芽苟芾苆
赬芦苧苪苩™0腂芷苈苭芿腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩 软角芬顊鎭苍腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃 荧苌邧雱腵苌苝腶苉苦苁苄跬苧苪芽苭芯苅苍苈芭腃邢金酓里苌裚鎮苆苍裙苈 苩賅靌苌豯跏鍉裓譠苍腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧賣苠蹣苁苄芢苩苌苅芠苩™1腂 镜艓腀软角芬郦鉮裦酉釰苌荒莓荦荂荖莇荩莋腅莍荗荢荧還鋨 腩a腪腀邢金軥芪費讏轚鉮苉艔鑎裈迣轚英苅芢苩邢金苉芨芯苩 软角芬顊鎭軒 讏轚鉮裦 酓鉮裦 讌钒遬鉮裦 讌荺腛莀莉莓荨 郠难闏邔 豗邔 豗邔 豗邔 閽诏辊鎾詩趷 8,138.346膖膖膖 8,203.608膖膖膖 8,277.888膖膖膖 閽诏辊鎾邬銷鞦詩趷腩野邔腪 0.324膖膖膖 0.103 0.521膖膖膖 閽诏辊鎾邬銷鞦苌认閪蹕 腼158.337 腼15.431 腼589.210膖 讗鞣腩100km腪 腼0.346膖膖膖 腼0.557膖膖膖 腼0.277膖膖膖 韗郚鉮裦荟荾腛 1.111膖膖膖 1.145膖膖膖 1.061膖膖膖 荔莓荶莋邔 4,310 735 2927 野邔雞鍸 腼20,433.3 腼3,367.4 腼13,970.3 腩b腪腀邢金軥芪費讏轚鉮苉艔鑎裈鏠苉裚鎮芵苄芫芽邢金苉芨芯苩 软角芬顊鎭軒 讏轚鉮裦 酓鉮裦 讌钒遬鉮裦 讌荺腛莀莉莓荨 郠难闏邔 豗邔 豗邔 豗邔 閽诏辊鎾詩趷 8,139.975膖膖膖 8,518.280膖膖膖 8,204.435膖膖膖 閽诏辊鎾邬銷鞦詩趷腩野邔腪 0.300膖膖膖 0.383膖膖 0.520膖膖膖 閽诏辊鎾邬銷鞦苌认閪蹕 腼324.658 腼169.011 腼982.834膖 讗鞣腩100km腪 腼0.371膖膖膖 腼0.640膖膖膖 腼0.293膖膖膖 韗郚鉮裦荟荾腛 1.093膖膖膖 0.993膖膖膖 1.068膖膖膖 荔莓荶莋邔 1,947 272 1,376 野邔雞鍸 腼9,261.6 腼1,245.0 腼6,612.7 腩銍腪腀讌荺腛莀莉莓荨芨苦苑讌钒遬鉮裦苌荔荵荔莓荶莋苅苍腃1997鑎苌赳邭详閪苅苍难詭苉閪鞣 苅芫苈芢鉮裦腩钒遬鉮裦苆趕遬鉮裦苌趇閹苉苦苩苠苌芪醽芢腪苍閪郍芩苧辜芢苄芠苩腂軀跛苌 還鋨苅苍腃邬銷鞦詩趷芨苦苑认閪蹕苉苍裚轚郦苌閽诏辊鎾苆苌賰趷趀苰鏼苪苄芢苩芪腃花苌镜 苅苍芻苌豗邔苰迈鞪芵苄芢苩腂花花苅腃膖苍10膓靌裓邅辀苰腃膖膖苍艔膓靌裓邅辀苰腃膖膖膖 苍艐膓靌裓邅辀苰镜芷腂
苞芷苑
腀酏郟苉芨芢苄腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩 软角芬顊鎭芪腃 莊荘荎閪蹕苆 諺釒辊鎾 迣辸苆芢芤鞼闻苌豯跏鍉裓譠苰苠苁苄芢苩花苆腃芳苧苉 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌腵邭 躡鍉腶邧雱芪軣芭苈苁芽苌芿苠腃 莊荘荎閪蹕苌芽苟苌腵豯跏趇鞝鍉腶鎮譀苍腃 芻苌轤苝苰醊野鍉苉醝芵苄芢苩观鑜邫苰腃诟鑎苌 荾荎莍荦腛荞苰苠芿芢苄譣 顟芵芽腂花花苅苌閪郍苌釥芫苈鏁銥苍腃轝鞈苌跅鍋裚轚赳鎮閪郍苌鍠鎝苰芭 苝苂苂苠腃諹醶苌閶貣裈迣苉腃荁荴莊荊苌邧鍸鍉述貏苌雰誄苆讟讋醤苌趇鞝 邫苰腃荦腛荞苌芤芦苅閪鞣芷苩闻陀苰鋱裄芵苄芢苩鍟苅芠苨腃遖芵芢赶貣芾 苆赬芦苩腂 腀苠芿苫英腃花花苅芢芤腵豯跏趇鞝邫腶苠腃荁荴莊荊遬视豶芪隢芾銼雊芷苩 辊鎾 莊荘荎苌釥芫芳苰酏鋱苆芵芽貋觊苉芷芬芸腃芻苌辊鎾 莊荘荎芪苇苌苦芤 苈靶裶苉苦苁苄钭邶芵苄芢苩苌芩腃芳苧苉迚跗苈譣顟芪镋靶苅芠苩腂醽芭苌 荁荴莊荊遬视豶苉苆苁苄腃隼雚迣苌負鞘苆芵苄讏轚鉮裦苰躩青苉酉苗苩苦芤 苉苈苁芽苆芵苄苠腃苦芻軒顊鎭軒芪荴荈腛荽莋苈遅识苉跅辉芩苧苂芯苩观鑜 邫苍苙苆英苇苈芢芩苠芵苪苈芢腂芻苌芽苟苉腃视醰酓里苆芵苄苍諈鉐苉软角 芬苰苢苟苩苭芯苉苍芢芩苈芢苌芩苠芵苪苈芢腂 腀荁荴莊荊遬视豶苉苆苁苄苍腃芨芻苧芭腃 諺釒辊鎾苌辊鎾苌迣辸芾芯苅苈芭 芻苌裀鋨覻芪芠苁苄花芻腃 软角芬顊鎭苰貸苧芷花苆苉苂苈芪苁苄芢芭苅芠苫 芤™2腂芻苌花苆芪腃 鏬荁荴莊荊苰諜苟芽荁荴莊荊辔趑苌銷諺鍉苈豯跏钭鍗苉 銼郚苂苈芪苩苌芩苇芤芩腃辊鎾苌镳裀鋨裈詏苉软角芬苌趇鞝邫苰覷醶芳芹苩 閶覻鍉腅邧鍸鍉邧雱苍蹣苁苄芢苈芢苌芩腃芻苪苧苍鑟醺躩里苌鏠閔苉芠苩苌 芩腃芻苪苆苠邭躡鍉苉跬苧苪芽苠苌苈苌芩腃離芢闔芵苄芢芭苗芫離釨苍蹣苁 苄芢苩腂 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧賣苌 顊鎭裚鎮苌閪郍苍腃花苌苦芤苈離芢苉鎚芦苩芽 苟苌譍轤苈跞鞿苠鋱讟芵苂苂芠苩腂腫镴譌腬腀陻迍苰苜苆苟苩苉跛芵腃邛豪醾躁苆苌认鎯貤讆苌貋觊苌裪閔苰鞘靰芳芹 苄芢芽芾芫腃苜芽趂讴靭蹱躁苆赲雘赇蹱躁芩苧苍荦腛荞邮鞝闢辕苰腃腵遖荁荴 莊荊豯跏顟腶貤讆觯莁莓药腛芩苧苍譍轤苈辕貾苆芲讦韍苰芢芽芾芫苜芵芽腂苜 芽腃豣鳤譠轭釥詷荏莍腛药莋荚荌莅莊荥荂荚莓荞腛腩G腀SEC腪苉貤讆辕邬苰 芢芽芾芫苜芵芽腂花花苉誴軓芢芽芵苜芷腂芽芾芵腃陻迍苌鏠靥苉賫苨芪芠苩苆 芷苪苎腃芻苪苍镍軒苌郓鑃苅芷腂 腫銍腬腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜腜 a腀 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋苉苂芢苄苍腃Basu腭1997腮芪靶韌苦芭苜苆苟苄芢苩腂 s 腀 软 角 芬 顊 鎭 苉 野 芵 苄腃 苦 苨 銷 諺 苌 裚 鎮 顊 鎭 苰 諒 鞬 鍉 裚 鎮 顊 鎭腩circular migration腪苆苦苔苆芫苠芠苩芪腃醽芭苌閶貣苆鎯靬腃花花苅苍详闊苍芵苈芢腂 d腀Houghton腭1976: 83腀101腮苍裚鎮顊鎭軒苌離釨鍟苰闯誇鍉苉蹷鍅芵芽釣镜鍉 苈閶貣苅芠苩腂苜芽腃Wilson腭1972: 137腮腮苍 遖賃鍔鑨鍉遬鍉躑陻鞝顟苉諮苃芫腃 裚轚顊鎭軒苌軐觯鍉荒荘荧苰鞝顟覻芵苄芢苩腂Amin腭1995腮苍荽莋荎荘軥譠 苉諮苃芫腃荁荴莊荊豯跏苌鋢釘苆裚鎮顊鎭軒苌醶距苰貋苑苂芯苄芢苩腂 f腀花苌譣顟苉苂芢苄苍腃芽苆芦苎Freund腭1988: 16腮苰苝苦腂 g腀闵腭1999腮苍腃荱荦腛莓苆荸荃荣苌鞧迪苰野铤芳芹苈芪苧腃花苌鍟苰譣顟芵 苄芢苩腂 h腀诟鑎苌钭鍗鍲迣趑苉芨芯苩 顊鎭裚鎮貤讆苌荔腛荸荃苆芵苄苍腃Lucas 腭1997腮 苰蹑迆腂
j腀花苌闓苨苌躖迮苍腃Crush, Jeeves and Yudelman腭1991腮苉迚芵芢腂 k腀荾荎莍鍉詧銣芾芯苅苈芭腃 荧荟莍腅莂荦莋苌荽荎莍鎮詷鍉詧銣苠鞝顟鍉钭鍗
苰苝苄芢苩腂迚跗苍郔韑腭2002腮蹑迆腂
l腀陻郟苍腃Ogura腭1996腮腃Lipton腭1986腮腃闵腭1996腮苉醽芭苰閉苁苄芢苩腂 ¡0腀Natives (Urban Area) Act苌腧Section 10腨苆芵苄鉭苧苪苩述貏苰隞芽芳苈芢
腩Lipton腭1986: 26腮腪趕遬芪训邧裚轚苌野进苆苈苁芽腂
¡1腀苠芿苫英腃邳譋苉莊荎莋腛荧芳苪芸苉鍳蹳閔苉覟芵芩芯苩軒苠醽芭腃铞苧苍 躩韍苅豀苁鞧苄辬覮苰貚苄腃赌釥苈荘莉莀詘苰豠邬芵芽腂
¡2腀 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌顧酧苝苌銆苅腃花苌苦芤苈豠苅苌荺腛莀莉莓荨苌詊钭苰闻
購苃芯芽苌芪腃 Tomlinson Commission Report腩1995腪苆苦苎苪苩誩趐辑苅芠苩腂
花苌鍟苉苂芢苄苍韑腭1979腮苰蹑迆腂
¡3腀花苌荔腛荸荃苍2000鑎2貎苉腃Labour Force Survey苆苈苁苄腃鏠靥苰裪遖芵 苄芢苩腂http://www.statssa.gov.za/default2.asp苰蹑迆腂
¡4腀費距苌赳邭详閪苍1996鑎苰讫苉釥芫芭闏赘芳苪苄芨苨腃醽芭苌讌荺腛莀莉莓 荨苍腃韗郚芷苩讌腵钒遬腶鉮裦苆閹趇芳苪苄芢苩芽苟腃花花苅苌跄費苍芨芨苜 芩苈苠苌苅芠苩腂
¡5腀躿離苌貴閶苍腃腧Are there any persons who are usually regarded as members of this household, but who were away for a month or more in the last year because they are migrant workers? (A migrant worker is someone who is absent from home for more than a month each year to work or seek work)腨
¡6腀花苌郟苌鏠靥苍腃Akabayashi and Suga腭2002腮苉醽芭苰閉苁苄芢苩腂 ¡7腀花花苅苍腃软角芬苰芷苩芩苇芤芩苌賂遬苌selectivity苍隳躋芵苄芢苩腂 ¡8腀花花苅靰芢苄芢苩1997鑎苌Magisterial district苅苍腃芷苅苉腃醽芭苌讌荺腛 莀莉莓荨苆讌钒遬鉮裦苆苌趇閹腅跄闒邬芪赳苭苪苄芨苨腃迣苅芠芰芽苦芤苈裈 酏苌详閪芪躯闊镳观鑜苈MD芪芠苩腂花花苅苌閪郍貋觊芩苧苍芻苪苧苌鉮裦苍 辜芢苄芠苩腂 ¡9腀花苪苍苠芿苫英腃 荁荰莋荧荷荃荧苌闶觳苍腃邢金苆芵苄苌讏轚鉮苰闏芦苄芢 苈芢视豶苌软角芬荰荞腛莓苉苍芻苪苙苇釥芫芭襥访苰非芦苄芢苈芢腃芻芵苄腃 讏轚鉮苌闏赘苆软角芬荰荞腛莓苌論豗苅苍腃賣軒芩苧酏軒苖苌裶觊論豗苍芻苪 苙苇釥芫芭苈芢腃苆芢芤酏鋱苉鞧苁苄芢苩腂 ™0腀裈迣苌貋觊苍腃還豶闻陀苉苦苩誴鍸貟趸腩裚鎮讗鞣苌铱郼豠趀苌鋇见腃艐遬 芾芯软角芬苰软芷视豶苌苝苌還鋨腪苰赳苁苄苠釥芫芭闏苭苧苈芩苁芽腂 ™1腀芽芾芵腃 莊荘荎閪蹕苌镋靶芪腵郢野鍉苉腶醝芦苄芢苩芩苇芤芩苍腃 荒莓荦荂 荖莇荩莋腅莍荗荢荧苌邫詩迣腃鉦鋨苅芫苈芢腩Greene腭2000: 863腮腪腂芠芭苜苅腃 諺釒辊鎾迣辸鎮譀苆铤苗苩苆腵醊野鍉苉腶轤靶邫芪芠芪苁苄芢苩花苆芾芯芪閪 芩苩腂 ™2腀花苌貋顟苍腃郔襈腭1969: 205腮苌躦趴芷苩苆花苫苆铱迭苉诟芢苠苌苉苈苁苄 芢苩腂 腫蹑赬閶貣腬 腱鏺陻質閶貣腲 郔襈靔腭1969腮腵荵莉荢荎腅荁荴莊荊苉芨芯苩腷软角芬顊鎭韍腸苌醶距豠釔腜鏬荁 认顡趑苌躖韡苰銆道苆芵苄腜腶腩郔襈靔腷鋡詊钭豯跏閪郍辘郠腸諢鑧辑鍘腪 177腠202荹腛荗腂 郔韑襰镶腭2002腮腵顊鎭裚鎮貤讆苆荁荴莊荊腜荔腛荸荃苆鍗陝腜腶腩閽雬趎賈闒腷遖 荁荴莊荊豯跏顟跄赜鉺苉購芯苄腸荁荗荁豯跏貤讆辊腪73腠97荹腛荗腂 韑赗蹪腭1979腮腵鏬荁荴莊荊蹙识詊钭苉芨芯苩鏬荁荴莊荊蹙识詊钭賶軐腩IDC腪苌 雰誄腶腩韑赗蹪闒腷費釣荁荴莊荊苌豯跏赜醢腸荁荗荁豯跏貤讆辊腪145腠193荹腛 荗腂 閽雬趎賈腭2002腮腷遽郠荁荴莊荊豯跏腸鏺陻镝顟軐腂 闵靺裪腭1996腮腷鏬荁荴莊荊腆腵鏸苌趑腶苖苌闠苝腸諢鑧辑鍘腂
腜腜腭1999腮腷費釣荁荴莊荊苆詊钭豯跏詷腸鏺陻镝顟軐腂
腱詏趑質閶貣腲
Akabayashi, Hideo and Keita Suga腭2002腮“Migrant Workers under Apartheid,” paper presented at Japan Economic Association Annual Meeting 2002.
Amin, Samir腭1995腮“Migrations in Contemporary Africa: A Retrospective View,” in J. Baker and T. A. Aina eds., The Migration Experience in Africa, Uppsala: Nordiska Africainstitutet, pp.29腀40.
Basu, Kaushik腭1997腮Analytical Development Economics, MIT Press.
Central Statistical Ser vice腭1989腮South African Labour Statistics: 1989, Pretoria: Central Statistical Service.
腜腜腭1993腮South African Labour Statistics: 1993, Pretoria: Central Statistical Service.
腜腜腭1995腮South African Labour Statistics: 1995, Pretoria: Central Statistical Service.
Crush, Jonathan, Alan Jeeves and David Yudelman腭1991腮South Africa’s Labor
Empire: A History of Black Migrancy to the Gold Mines, Westview Press. Davies, Paul S., Michael J. Greenwood and Haizheng Li腭2001腮“A Conditional Logit
Approach to U.S. State腀to腀State Migration,” Journal of Regional Science, Vol.41, No.2, pp.337腀360.
Freund, Bill腭1988腮The African Worker, Cambridge University Press. Greene, H. William腭2000腮Econometric Analysis, 4th
ed., Upper Saddle River, N. J.: Prentice Hall.
Houghton, D. Hobart腭1976腮The South African Economy, 4th
ed., Oxford University Press腩釦艑铅苌降雳苉韑赗蹪雳腷鏬荁荴莊荊豯跏顟腸荁荗荁豯跏貤讆辊腃 1970鑎腪.
Katz, Elikiam and Oded Stark腭1986腮“Labor Migration and Risk Aversion in Less Developed Countries,” Journal of Labor Economics, Vol.4, No.1, pp.134腀149. Lipton, Merle腭1986腮Capitalism and Apartheid: South Africa, 1910腀86, Wildwood
House.
Lucas, Rober t E. B.腭1985a腮“Mines and Migration in South Africa,” American
Economic Review, Vol.75, No.5, pp.1094腀1108.
腜腜腭1985b腮“Migration amongst the Batswana,” Economic Journal, Vol.95(June), pp.358腀382.
腜腜腭1986腮“Emigration, Employment, and Accumulation: The Miners of Southern Africa,” Research in Human Capital and Development, JAI Press, 4, pp.107腀138. 腜腜腭1997腮“Internal Migration in Developing Countries,” in M. Rosenzweig and O.
Stark eds., Handbook of Population and Family Economics, IA, North Holland. 腜腜腭2000腮“Migration,” in M. Grosh and P. Glewwe eds., Designing Household
Survey: Questionnaires for Developing Countries, World Bank.
Mabin, Alan腭1990腮“Limits of Urban Transition Models in Understanding South African Urbanization,” Development Southern Africa, Vol.7, No.3, pp.311腀322. McFadden, Daniel腭1981腮“Econometric Models of Probabilistic Choice,” in C.
Manski and D. McFadden eds., Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with
Econometric Applications, MIT Press.
Ogura, Mitsuo腭1996腮“Urbanization and Apartheid in South Africa: Infl ux Controls and Their Abolition,” Developing Economies, Vol.34, No.4, pp.402腀423.
Paulson, Anna腭2000腮“Insurance Movies for Migration: Evidence from Thailand,” mimeo.
Rogerson, Christian M.腭1995腮“Forgotten Places, Abandoned Places腀Migration Research Issues in South Africa,” in J. Baker and T. A. Aina eds., The Migration
Experience in Africa, Uppsala: Nordiska Africainstitutet, pp.109腀121.
Rosenzweig, Mark and Oded Stark腭1989腮“Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol.97, No.3, pp.905腀926.
Statistics South Africa腭1993腀1999腮October Household Survey, 1993腀1999, Statistics South Africa.
腜腜腭1997腮Census 1996, Statistics South Africa.
Stichter, Sharon腭1985腮Migrant Laborers, Cambridge University Press.
Todaro, Michael腭1969腮“A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries,” American Economic Review, Vol.59, No.1, pp.138腀
148.
Williamson, Jeffery腭1988腮“Migration and Urbanization,” in H. Chenery and T. N. Srinivasan eds., Handbook of Development Economics, Vol.1, North Holland. Wilson, Francis腭1972腮Labour in the South African Gold Mines: 1911腀1969,
