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Coordinated observational and modeling studies on the basic structure and variability of the Arctice sea ice-ocean system

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北極海氷海洋システムの基本構造と変動に関する観測モデリング融合研究

羽角 博康1

1東京大学 大気海洋研究所

Coordinated observational and modeling studies on the basic structure and variability of the Arctice sea ice-ocean system

Hiroyasu Hasumi1

1Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo

In this subject we aim to understand the role of the Arctic sea ice-ocean system in the global climate change. For this purpose, we clarify the mechanisms which control formation and variability of the Arctic oceanic structure by coordinated observational and modeling studies. In doing so, we develop a numerical model of the Arctic sea ice-ocean system which adequately represent such mechanisms. By applying the developed model and dataset, we also aim to construct a projection system for the Arctic sea ice distribution and contribute to the achievement of the strategic target 4 “Projection of sea ice distribution and Arctic sea routes.” In the observational part, we develop algorithms for satellite data analysis and conduct mooring observation in a thin-ice area. By combining these activities, we construct high-precision datasets for sea ice thickness and drift which can be utilized as boundary conditions, input data, and validation data for high-resolution Arctic Ocean models and the Arctic sea ice projection system. The mooring observation is also to be used for capturing formation and descending processes of dense water. In the modeling part, we try to understand the basic structure and variability of the Arctic sea ice-ocean system which are related to mid to long term climate changes and properly model it. The modeling is focused on micro scale processes which are associated with transport and mixing of water masses with widely different properties, such as riverine runoff, the Pacific water, and Atlantic water, in the Arctic Ocean. Sea ice processes and associated water mass transformation and dense water formation/descent are also targeted. In the Arctic sea ice projection system part, we construct a modeling system which is especially optimized for projection of Arctic sea ice changes by selectively applying special high resolution around the Arctic region and by developing a new system for sea ice assimilation.

本課題では、観測とモデリングの融合研究によって北極海の海洋構造の形成・変動メカニズムを明らかにし、そ れを適切に表現できる数値モデルを構築することを通して、全球的な気候変動における北極海氷海洋システムの 役割を解明することを目的としている。また、そこで構築される数値モデルとデータセットを応用し、北極域海 氷分布の予測システムを構築することで、戦略目標④「北極海航路の利用可能性評価につながる海氷分布の将来 予測」の達成に貢献する。観測では、人工衛星データの解析アルゴリズム開発と薄氷域における係留観測を組み 合わせて、高解像度北極海モデリングや北極海氷分布予測システムの境界条件・入力データおよび検証材料とし て利用できる高精度の海氷厚・漂流データセットの構築を行うとともに、高密度水の形成・沈降過程を係留観測 によって捉える。モデリングでは、河川水・太平洋水・大西洋水といった異なる特性を持つ水塊の北極海での輸 送・混合に関わる微小規模プロセス、および海氷過程とそれに伴う水塊変質や高密度水形成・沈降を中心的なタ ーゲットとし、中~長期気候変動に関わる北極海氷海洋システムの基本構造と変動の理解と適切なモデル化を行 う。海氷分布予測システムに関しては、既存の全球気候変動予測システムをベースとし、北極海周辺の選択的高 解像度化と新たな海氷同化システムの開発を通して、北極海氷の変動予測に特化したシステムの構築を行う。

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