Chinese‑type of Market Mechanisms : Performance and Prospects
著者 KIKUCHI Michiki
出版者 Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University
journal or
publication title
Journal of International Economic Studies
volume 13
page range 25‑37
year 1999‑03
URL http://doi.org/10.15002/00002144
O1999TheInstitutcofComparativcEconomicStudies,HosciUmiversity
Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisms
-PerfbrmanceandProspects
MichikiKikuchi
Fh“ノリq/ECO"omjcMYbsej[加j…i妙
1.Introduction
TwentyyearshavepassedsinceChinabegantotransfbrmitscentralplanned economicsystemtowardamarket-orientedeconomicone・Duringtheseyears,
China,srealGDPhasincreasedatanaverageannualrateofl0.8%、Thisisthe highestgrowthrecordofanycountryduringthisperiod、Whnemanydeveloping countrieswiththenotableexceptionoftheNIEsandASEANcountrieshavefailed toreachthetake-ofTofeconomicdevelopment,Chinahasbeenlaunchedontoahigh economicgrowthorbit・Inaddition,Chinahassucceededintransfblmingitseco‐
nomicsystemfromcentralplanningtowardmarketmechanisms,adoptinga`gradual- ist,approachincontrasttothe`radicalism,takenbythefbrmerUSSRandEastem Europeancountries・WecansaythatChina,seconomicdevelopmenthasbeenreal- izedthroughtransfblmationoftheeconomicsystem,andtherefbreChinahasbeen victoriousintwoevents,namelyeconomicdevelopmentandthetransfbrmationofthe economicsystem、
Incidentally,Imuststatethatithasbeenacurioustypeofdevelopment,because thishighrateofeconomicgrowthhasbeenaccompaniedwiththestrictestbirth controlpoliciesthathumanbeingshaveneverbeensubjectto、Chineseleaders,
whetherofconservativeorrefblmatistfactions,haveallfavoredbirthcontroLWe maysaythatmodernChineseleaderssharethesameapprehensionsthatMalthusfblt attheendofl8thcentury・TheChinesegovernmenthasfもarCdthatChinamightfnll intoa`Malthusiantrap,、Meaningthatthehugefboddemandbroughtbylargescale populationincreasemayarrestcapitalfbrmationandquicklybringabouteconomic stagnation・
Ontheotherhand,intheautumnofl9941hadachancetoseeaninterCsting automobileshowwhichwasrunbytheChinesegovernmentinPeking、Thegovern- mentinvitedtheleadersofmajorautomobilecompaniesfromadvancedcountriesto takepartintheshowbybringingblueprintsfbracompactsizecarfbrtheChinese people・Itwasagloriousshowwiththemajorcompaniespresentingtheirowncars withgreatefTbrt、TheymadeeveryeffbrttobechosenaspartnersofChinesecar makersandtohavetheirmodeladoptedasapopularnationalcar,TotheseWestern automobileCompanies,onthevergeofthe21thcentury,china,smarketisnodoubt thekeytosurvivaLBefbreandaftertheshow,leadersoflarge-scalecompaniesfrom
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Chinese-typcofMarketMechanisms-PcrfbrmanccfmdProspects
aroundtheworldinvariousindustriescouldbeseenvisitingPekingtobeallowedto entertheChinesemarket、Iwasimpressed,itseemedlikeamoderntributaryfbreign policyinitiatedbytheChinesegovernment・Needlesstosay,china,seconomicper‐
fbrmancewillexertgreatinfluencenotonlyonitsAsianneighbors,includingJapan,
butalsoontherestoftheworld,
Inthisarticle,IwilltrytothrowsomelightonthecharacteristicsofChinese marketmechanismsthathavebroughtaboutthisremarkableeconomicperlbrmance,
andanalyzetheirfntureprospects.
n.DevelopmentthroughTransfbrmation㎡theEconomic System
1.PhasesofEconomicDevelopment
Tostartwith,Iwillbrieflytracetheprocessoftheeconomicdevelopmentofthe pasttwentyyearsBasedonthedecisionadoptedonthethirdplenumofthellth CentralCommitteeoftheChineseCommunistParty(CCP),heldinl978,theHouse‐
holdResponsibilitySystemfbrAgriculturalProductiongraduallytooktheplaceof collectivefarmingunderthePeople,sCommunesystem・Theaimoftheintroduction ofthissystemwastogiveincentivestopeasantsbyallowingthemtofiPeelyselltheir agriculturalproductsafterdeliveringthecontractedproductstolocalgovernment,
Thisshiftinagriculturalproductionsystemledtoconstantincreasesincropproduc- tion,andmadethenon-agriculturaltownshipandvillageenterprises(TVEs)prosper‐
ous、Asaresult,thepurchasingpowerofChinesepeasantsraisedconspicuously・
Theirdesirefbrconsumptionstimulateddomesticdemandfbrconsumergoods,such asapparels,shoes,dailynecessities,andhouses,etc,Thesegoodsweremainlysup‐
pliedbytheTVEs、Thusinruralareas,apositivecirculationbetweengoodsand moneyemerged、Thatistosay,acyclewascreatedofmcreaseofpeasant,sincome leadingtoanexpansionofdemandfbrconsumergoods,andanincreaseofsavings leadingmturntoanenlargementofequipmentfbrproductionbyTVEs,andthisin turntoafnrtherincreaseintheincomeofpeasants・
Inthisway,ChineseeconomicgrowthinthefIrststage,during1979-84,was fimdamentallyachievedbytheincreasesinanagriculturalproductivitythat promptedbytheintroductionoftheResponsibilitySystemfbrAgriculturalProduc‐
tion
ThesecondstagestartedinOctober,1984.Atthethirdplenumofthel4th CentralConunittee,theCCPembarkedonaplantotransfbnnthemanagement mechamsmofstate-runenterprises・WhiletheefTectofthetransfbrmation,asa whole,hasnotbeensofavorable,theaverageincomelevelofurbanworkershas continuedtoraise・Froml984on,ithasbeenoneofthemostimportantfactors behindthehighrateofeconomicgrowth,byenlargingdomesticdemand・Repeating thepatternofpeasants,urbandwellershavebeeninducedtobuyconsumptiongoods andparticularly,`threenewriches,,namelyTVsets,refiPigerators,andwashingma- chines,Thisardentdesirefbrdurableconsumergoodshasstimulateddomestic demandMoreover,therapidincreaseintheincomeofurbanresidentshascreated
ashiftinthecompositionofsavings,from80%(rural)to20%(urban)ml980,to
20%(rural)to80%(urban)inl997(StateStatisticalBureau,1998).Thissuggests26
thattherapidgrowthofthenumberofurbanresidentshascontributedtocapital
fbrmation
Inadditiontotheexpansionofdomesticdemandfbrgoodsandofthecapital supply,wemustconsiderfbreigntradcandinvestmentasabasicfactorbehindeco‐
nomicdevelopmenL
Thetrade/GDPratiohasbeenincreasingconstantlysincel978・Itrosefrom lZ5inl979to45、5inl997(StateStatisticalBureau,1998).ThusChinaisnowranks
asoneofworld,scountrieswithhighesttrade/GDPratio,andgeneraUyseenasa
countrywithanoutward-orienteddevelopmentstrategy、Intheprocessofdevelop‐ment,thestructureofexportsandimportshasgreatlychanged・Intermsofexport structure,thepercentageofrawmaterialsandagriculturalproductshasdecreased,
whereasthatofmanufacturedproducts,includingmachinery,andelectricappara-
tuses,hasmcreasedremarkably・Intermsofimportstructure,thepercentageofraw
materials,includingcrudeoil,hasbeenonanrisingtrend・Asfbrfbreignfina、Ce,andinparticulardirectinvestment,thesumandthe
investmentfieldhaveremainedlimited・ItwasnotuntilDengxiaoping,sl992grand
tourofsouthernareasthatfbreigndirectinvestmentbecamefnll-fledged,Froml993 on,therateofincreaseoffbrCigndirectinvestmentcomparedtothepreviousyearhas beenmorethan20%onaverage(StateStatisticalBureau,1998).Inl997thiSsumreachedUSonemilliondollars,andChinabecameworld'slargestacceptoroffbrcign
investment,Ofcourse,thiswasthemainimpetusbehindChina,srapideconomic growthSowemaycallthisperiodthethirdphaseintheprocessofeconomicdevel-opmenL
Thisshortsurveyofthepasttwentyyearstellsusthatitisnotprecisetoassert
thatChma,liketheNIEs,realizedeconomicdevelopmentbyadoptinganexport‐
orientedstrategy.
2.Non-MarketFactorsintheChineseMarketSystem
ltmaybecommonsensethatmarketmechanismsbroughtthis1℃markableper‐
fbrmanceofeconomicdevelopmentafterthefailureofthecentralplannedeconomic
system・However,thefbllowingfactsindicatethatwecannotsimplyattributethe perfbrmancetomalketmechanisms,butthatweneedtopayattentiontothebaseandconditionswhereinmarketmechanismsworkedeffbctively、Needlesstosay,Idonot
intendtosupportthecemralplannedeconomicsystem・Instead,Iwanttomakeclearishowmarketmechanismshavecometooperateandtobringaboutthesepositive
results.
DPrematureHeavylndustrialization
First,IwouldliketotakeasanexamplethefbrmergrowthrateofNational Revenue(NR,GDPminustheservicesector,svalueadded)asevidencethatwe cannotignorecontinuityfromthepast・TheNRgrowthratewasnotsolowevenln thecentral-planningperiod,exceptfbrtheSecondFive-Year-Planperiod(1958-62)
whentheGreatLeapForwardcausedminusgrowthDuringeachFive-Year-P1an period,theChinesenationaleconomymaintainedarelativelyhighrateofgrowth:
duringtheflrstperiod(1953-57)NPgrowthwas89%,intheEconomicAdjustment period(1963-65)itwas14.7%inthethirdperiod(1966-70)8.3%,thefburthperiod (1971-75)5.5%,andinthefifthperiod(1976-80)was6.1%(StateStatisticalBureau,
27
ChiIuese-typcofMarketMcchzmisms-PerfbmmanceandProspccts
1985).Thesefhctssuggestthatitwasduringthecentral-planningperiodthatthe
preparationsfbrrapidgrowthwereconceivedOfcourse,wemustrememberthatthe economicgrowthinthosedayswasunstable,mainlyowingtopoliticalfluctuations Moreover,therewasneitherstrikingprogressinefficiencyofproductionnorinim- provementinproductquality,becauseofalackofincentivesfbrbothmanagersand workersfbreffbrt,Moreover,copyingStalin,smodelofcentral-planedeconomy・TheChmesegovernmentpursuedanindustrializationstrategywhichconcentrated investmentmainlyintotheheavymdustrysector,resultinginadistortedindustrial structurewithafmgilelightindustrysector,sbase、
WehaveleamedthatChinesepeopleexperiencedmanymiserableandunfbrgiv- ablethmgsintheprocessofthedevelopmentofheavyindustry・
Inspiteofthedistortionoftheindustrialstructure,weshouldtakeintoaccount theexistenceofprematureindustrializatio、,andthefU11-settypeindustrialstructure ThatunexpectedefTectofthishasbeenanadequatepreparationfbrthepresenthigh speeddevelopment・Objectivelyspeaking,wecannotdisregardthecompletionof heavyindustryasapreconditionfbreconomicgrowth・Withoutsuchanindustrial base,itwouldhavetakenmoretimeandmoneytorealizesuchexcellenteconomic perfbrmance.
2)LandRefbrmandlrrigation
China,srecenteconomicprosperitywouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthe preconditionofthere-distributionoftherighttoutilizearablelandbyindividual households・UnderthePeople,sCommunesystem,arablelandwascollectively ownedandutilizedThetypeofcoUectivefarminghelpedtosolveafbwproblems,
particularlyincreasesinfbodproductiontoemancipatethegrowingpopulationfrom starvation・Thoughsubsistencewasmaintained,itwasdifTiculttoraiselivingstan- dards,becauseofalackofincentivesfbrpeasantstoincreaseagriculturalproduction・
ThiswaswhytheCCPdecidedtoalloweachhouseholdtotakethemitiativefbr agriculturalproduction・Thusruralhouseholdsbecamethefimdamentalumtof agriculture,basedonthere-distributionofarablelandAlthoughtheCCPstilldoes notallowtheprivateownershipofland,therightofpeasantstoutilizetheirallocated landisguaranteedsubstantiallyasiftheywereowners・Atthefburthplenumofthe
l5thCentralComlnitteeheldinOctoberinl998,theCCPdecidedtoprolongthe termsofaUocatedlandutilizationfbranadditionalthirtyyears,
Onthispoint,china,sexperienceintermsoflandrefbrmisessentiallythesame asthatofJapan,TaiwanandKorea,althoughthebackgroundsandmethodswerenot necessarilythesame・Theexperiencesofthesefbureconomiestellsthatlandrefbrm,
ifsmoothlyaccomplishedintheshortterm,successfUUycreatessmaU-holders,who canplayadecisiverolcineconomicdevelopment,notonlyasproducersbutalso consumerswhosustaindomesticdemand・Ithinkthatwideranddeeperresearch needstobeconductedontheroleoflandrefbrmasapreconditionfbrindustrializa‐
tion,fromthepointofcomparativeanalysis・
Withregardtoagriculturaldevelopment,wecannotoverlookthebasiccondi- tionsfbrproduction・Thedistributionofarablelandandconstructionofagricultural infrastructuresuchasdikes,waterways,roadsetc.,wereproductsofthePeople,s Communesystem・Thosephysicalimprovementswereindispensablefbrsustainable mcreaseofagriculturalproductionundertheResponsibilitySystemfbrAgricultural
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Production.ItiswidelyacceptedthatthePeople,sCommunesystemreducedpeas- ant,swillingnesstoworkandthusledagriculturalproductionstagnateunderthe principleofegalitariandistributionlnaddition,theprO]ectstomakevastwasteland intoarablelandandtoconstructtheinfrastructurewerecarriedoutbymobilizing workingpeoplewithoutcompensationNeedlesstosay,theftlults,painsandoppres- sivecontroloverpeasantsunderthePeople,sCommunesystemshouldnotbedenied ltwouldbeoverlysimplistic,however,toconcludethatcollectivefarmingwas wrong,andtosaythattheintroductionofhouseholdfhrmingsuddenlyboostedagri‐
culturalproduction,whileignoringcapitalfbrmationunderthePeople,sCommune
system.
3)TheAmbiguityofProperty,anndC1oseRelationswithLocalGovernment
TVEsareseenasentelprisesofnaturalproductsofthemarketmechanisms、ItiswidelyacceptedthatthehighgrowthofTVEshasbeenfUndamentaUyduetotheir managementprinciples,selfLfinancingbasisandselfLresponsibilityfbrprofItsand losses・Suchanestimation,however,iscorrectasacomparisonwithstate-runenter‐
prises・Moreover,eventhosewhoinsistthatTVEsareadaptabletomarketmecha- nismsrecognizethattheyhaveambiguousOwnership・Thisraisesanissueregarding thetheoryofNewlnstitutionalEconomics(NIE),namely,whyhaveTVEsgrown rapidlydespitetheirambiguouspropertiesownershipSomescholarsarenowpropos- inginterestingconceptstothrowlightontheissue・
WeitzmanandXu(1994)haveproposedaconceptofvaguelydefinedownership incontrasttotraditionalownership、Thatownershipcomesfromthe‘cooperative culture,oftheOrient,whichhasitsowncapabilityfbrsolvingtheproblemsthat
enterprisesface・
DavidDLi(1996)saidasfbllow:facingauncertainmarket,theentrepreneur maywanttoincludethegovemmentasanambiguousowner;inotherwords,the arrangementofambiguouspropertyrightsisaresponsetothegraynessofthemarket,
whichisafbrmofmarketimperfbction
AndJiahuaCheandYingyiQian(1998)understoodlocalgovernmentowner‐
shipasaresponsetoimperfbctstateinstitutions,awayofreducingtheadverseefTbcts
ofstatepredationintheabsenceofinstitutionstoconstrainthestate・
TheirdiscussionssuggestthatChineseeconomicdevelopmenthastakenplacein adiffbrentenvironmentfromtheOccident・Atleast,theyshareaconsensusthat privateownershipisnotanabsoluteconditionfbreconomicdevelopment,
AnotherissueisthatTVEsarecloselytiedtolocalgovernment,andsubstantially
inseparablehomit・
Oi(1995)proposedauniqueconcept,localstatescorporatismUsingthiscon-
cept,sheexplainedthatlocalgovemmentstreatTVEswithintheiradministrative
purviewascomponentsofalargercoporatewhole,andthatlocaloffIcialsactasthe equivalentofaboardofdirectors・Weingast(1995)stressedthatmodernChineselocalgovernmentshavethefimc‐
tiomofmaintainingamarket-preservmgfbderalism,andplaytheroleofshareholding companiesfbrTVEs・Accordingtohim,thisfimctionandroleoflocalgoveTnments inducedcompetitionamonglocalregions,andincontrasttoLatinAmerica,thereis
noroomfbrattemptsatrent-seeking、TherearealsobeenmanyhypothesesontherelationbetweenTVEsandlocal
29
Chinese-typcofMarketMechanisms-PerIbrmanceandProspects
government,especiaUyfromtheviewpointofcorporategovemance,suchasthe‘M typeenterprise,(QianandXu,1993).Inaddition,somescholarshavefbcusedonthe ChinesetypeofleadershipasafactorfbrthedevelopmentofTVEs(Nee,1989.
Parris,1993)
AswiththeissueoftheownershipofTVBS,therelationofTVEstogovernment isnotclearlyexplamablewithanyparadigmthatisadaptabletotheexperienceof developedcountries・Muchremainstobeunderstoodregardingthepartnershipbe- tweenTVEsandlocalgovernment.
111.Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisxn
1.MarketMechaniSmaSanldealSystemDengXiaoping,sl992``grandtour,,ofSouthChinainsupportoftherefbnn processwasfbllowedinNovemberl993bythedecisionofthethirdplenumofthe l4thCentralCommitteeoftheCCPtoproceedwiththeconstructionofa‘socialist marketeconomicsystem,.’、itsdecision,theCentralCommitteestressedthatthe establishmentofasystemofmodementerpnseswasthesinglemostpressingproblem facingthecountry,andconcludedthatenterprisesshouldbeweededoutonthebasis ofmarketcompetition,andthatpriorityshouldbegiventoefficiencywhile‘`giving considerationto',thesystemofequaldistributionofincome・Thus,theCCPtook competitionasitsguidmglight,andafTirmedthebare,primitivemarketprincipleof thesurvivalofthefittest・Thereafter,inthedecisionofl5thgeneralmeetingofthe CCPinl997,thisprinciplewasmoreclearlyexpressedasfbllows;‘Throughthe encouragementofmerge応,regulationsfbrbankrupcies,lay-ofYSandpersonnelcuts,
increasesofprofItsandre-employment,asystemofcompetitionamongenterprises basedontheprincipleofthesurvivaloftheHttestshouldbecreated.,This,accord‐
ingly,becameafTirmedasanationalprinciple,leadingtothedefactoeradicationof restrictionsoneconomicactivitiesonthegroundsoftheirmfringinguponsocialist
ideals
2.PrimitivePrinciples
The`Socialistmarketmechanismeconomicsystem,,althoughqualifIedas`social‐
ist,,issubstantiallyacollectionofprimitivemarketmechanismfactorsOncemoti- vationfbrprofItwasofficiallyapproved,anatmosphereofmammonismspreadi、
china、Thedesirefbrdurableconsumergoodshas,ontheonehand,contributedto enhancingdomesticdemandandhasledtothehigheconomicgrowthrate,butonthe otherhand,ithastransfbrmedvaluesandcausedsocialproblemsespeciallyinthe fIeldsofcultureandeducationManypeoplethinklittleofcultureandeducation,
andyoungpeopletendtosteerawayfromjobstothesefIelds,liketeaching、Since teachers,incomelevelislow,itisnotrareinruralareasfbrteachers,alreadyinshort supply,toabandontheirjobs、Pupilswhocan,tpaythemoneyrequiredbyteachers- thoughmostoftheserequirementsareillegal-arefbrcedtoquitschooLOneelder profbssor,whohaslonglivedinPeking,sighedashedescribedthisatmosphere,
tellingmethatmoneywasusuallyrequiredwhenaskingfbrafavorevenfiPomneigh- borsandcolleagues・
Theworkenvironmentsinsomeprivateenterprisesandinfbreign-owned
30
enterprisesdemonstratethetypicalcharacteristicsofprimitivemarketmechanisms・
IwUltakeanexamplewhichlwitnessedinl993inWenzhou(acitylocatedm
southrnZhUjiangprovince),whichwasveryfamousasitsprivateSectorwasquite powerfnLMostfnctorieswerefllledwithnoisesandbadsells,andtheydischarged
untreatedwasteintoariver、Amanagerinonefactoryconfbssedthatmostworkers couldnotworkfbrmorethanthreemonthsbecauseofthepoorenvironments・In spiteofthepoorenvironments,largenumbersofyoungworkerswerecomingnot onlyfiPomneighboringvillagesbutalsofiPomremoteprovincessuchasSichuanand AnhuLTheysaidthatthehighincomelevelwasveryattractive,andthattheywould workasmanydailyhoursasPossible・ItseemscommonalloverChinaatpresentfbr workerstoprefertoworklongerandgainmoreincomethantoimprovelaborcondi‐tionsandtheirlifeenvironments・KristofandWudunnalsoexplainedwhycentral
andlocalgovernmentshavenotintroducedminimumwagesSystems(Kristofand Wudunn,1995).3.Regionalism
Oneoftheinterestingfactsabouttheseriesofeconomictransfbrmationstaken byChinaisthat,whilemarketprinciplesaresinkmginanddomesticdistribution networksaregrowing,economicblocs,whichareafbatureoffeudaleconomies,are
developingAuthoritiesinsomeprovinceshaveclearlyannouncedthattheywill fbrbidsuchactions・TheCCPandcentralgovernmentoftencaUfbrabreakingdown
thedivisionsandcloseddoorstoregionalandsectoralmarketaThesefeudal-styleeconomiesarebelievedtohaveemergedinlargepartdueto theongoingchangeawayfromtheconventionalcentralizedsystem,whereinthe nationalgovemmentheldnearlytotalcontrolovereconomicactivitiestoasystem wheretheeconomyiscontrolledatboththecentralandlocallevels・Alongwiththe increaseintheauthorityoflocalgovemmentsandtheselfLmanagementrightsof
enterprises,enterpriseshavecometorelymoreheavilyonthelocalgovernments,andthelocalgovemmentsmturnhaveextendedprotectiontothelocalenterprises,acting
as“patriarchs,,oftheregion,ThisrelationshipisconsideredtobeoneofthereasonswhytherehasbeennochangeintheexceSsivelysoftbudgetaryrestraints,asseen typicallyinstate-ownedenterprises,andfbrtheobstructionofinterdependencein management(MacroEconomicManagelnentlssuesGroup,1988).
Thetendencytowardclosed-doorregionalismgoesbeyondeconomics,andmto thejudicialandtheadministrativesectorsaswelLEvenlocalcourtssometimes
cancelmdictmentsagainstlocalofficialsandactinamanneradvatageoustothem- selves(People,Daily〔RenminRibao〕'0ct、26,1993).
4.TraClition
Asmarketmechanismsspread,sometraditionalsystemshavebeenrevived,and
sometraditionalorganizationshavereappearedinslightlychangedfbrmaInparticu‐
lar,inruralarea,sometraditionalsocioeconomicsystemssuchasjointhold‐
Companies(股扮合作)andfIxed-daysmarkets(専業市場)etc、havecometoplay importantrolesindevelopmgtheruraleconomy・
Onetypeofprivateentelpriseisthejointholdingcompany,whichissaidtobe anidealtype,suitablefbrmarketmechanisms・
Chinesehaveatendencytoorgamzegroupscomposedofpcoplefromthesame
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Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisms-PerfbrmaHuceandProspects
Village,orprefbcture、Throughsuchgroups,theycanhelpeachotheratwhichfara‐
wayfromhome、ItisatraditionalsysteminChina・Eventoday,insomebigcities likePeking,ShanghaiandGuanzhou,thereareplaceswithnamessuchasZhejiang
village(断江村)orWenzhoustreet(温州街).Thenamescomefromtheplaces
wheretheywerebom・ThosewhocomefromthesametownorVillage,andare engagedinsmallsizecommerce,andmanufncture,helpingeachother・Thistypeofgroupissuitablefbrpeopleengagedincommerceandindustryin remoteregions・Theycanlivebyprovidingmutualaidtoeachother,includinggiving andreceivinginfbrmation,debtandcreditoncapital,mordertoavoidrisk,
Some50yearsago,thelateYUjiMuramatsugaveauniqueviewofChinese attitudestowardmarketmechanisms,asfbllows;Generallyspeaking,theChinese lackthespiritofsavingsandareapttoenjoyconsumption・Undertheprincipleof laissez-fkliremarketmechanisms,excesscompetitionappearsamongpettyme1℃hants andartisans,Localgovernmentdoesn,thaveapublicfimction,andthosewhogovern becomeeagertopursuittheirownprofitsontheirbasesofprivatearms・Underthe duplicatedrelationsbetweencentralandlocalgovernment,theshareoffinancial incomeoflocalgovernmenttendstoincrease,andthisisthejustmainfactorbehind theweakeningofcentralauthority、
InChina,marketenvironmentisnotregulatedbygovernment,themonetary systemisnotunited,andthefinancialorderisunstable、Peopleengagedinbusiness mustendeavortokeeptheirprofitssafbfromvariousdangerswithoutrelyingonstate orgovernment・Theydothisbyfbrminggroupswithpeoplewhoarefromthesame village,orprefbcture,ThemotivationtofbrmsuchgroupsisclearlyselfIshAs fnctorsbehindthefbrmationofthesecommunitiesorgroups,bloodbondsandnon‐
proHtablebondsarenotsoimportant・MuramatsusawtheChineseasextremely
`mdividuate,(notindividualinthemeaningofmodernWesternworld)and mammonist(Muramatsu,1949,re-edition,1975).
ManypeoplemaybecriticalofMuramatsu,sviews,buthiseffbrttoproposea paradigm,withwhichonecouldhaveamoreproperunderstandingofthepattemsof Chineseeconomicactivities,canbehighlyestimated.
1V・ReturntotheGC1assicalEconomicWorld,?
LANewTypeofAbundanceWorld
KeiTakeuchicriticizedtheneo-classicaleconomiRts,viewthatmarketmecha‐
nismsarealmighty,andheemphasizedthatthemtemalcontradictionsofcapitalism wouldleadtoanendtoeconomicgrowthallovertheworldHerecognizedthatthe ChineseeconomyhadthepotentialtoattainthesamelevelsofpercapitaGDPas today,sJapanandUS.A,andfbcusedattentiononthefactthatveryconditionsthat madethishigheconomicgrowthpossible,namely,limitsonsuppliesofrawmaterials andenergy,oversupplyofproductionfacultiesbroughtaboutbythehugesizeof machineIyandequipment,over-competitionanddistortionofemployment,diffIculty insecuringfbod,anddestructionofthenamralenvironment,etc、wouldultimately destroycapitalismitselfHeillustratedthisbyshowmgthatifChinadevelopstothe leveloftheadvancedindustrialcountrieslikeJapan,itsannualproductionofsteel wouldbeL2billiontons,surpassingtoday,stotalworldproductionby50%,andthe
32
annualproductionofautomobileswouldbemo1℃thanonehundredandfiftymillion peryear・Thissituationisbeyondallimagination(KeiTakeuchi,1995).
Inanycase,themostseriousshort-termproblemfhcingChinawilllikelybefbod shortageinrelationtopopulation、TheChinesegovernmentissoafraidoffnlling intothe`Malthusiantrap,thatithasconsistentlymaintainedaseverebirthcontrol policy、Evenifthenationaleconomyprospers,asaresultofrapidincreasesofpopu‐
lation,itwillsoonerorlaterbegintobefnllintoa`trap'consistingofthefbllowing Circulation:economicgrowth-〉populationincrease--increasingdemandoffbod
→decreaseofsavings--slowdownofcapitalfbrmation→economicstagnation.
2.FoodandPopulation
ltisironicthatLesterBrownhassupportedtheChinesegovernment,birthcon‐
trolpolicy,becausehereachedapessimisticconclusionsregardingtheprospectsfbr fbodsupply,contrarytotheconfldentviewsoftheChinesegovernment、Asiswell known,BrownconcludedthatChina,sfbodsupplywillbedeficientbyabout2025, becauseofthelargelyincreaseinfboddemand(Brown,LesterR.,1995).Thein‐
creasingdemandwouldbecausedbyabsolutepopulationmcreases,aswellasby increasingdemandfbrhighqUalityfbod,meatandfishetc.,owingtotherisinglevel ofmcome・Asfbrthepossibilityofincreasingthefbodsupply,thereislittleunculti‐
vatedlandwhichispotentiallyarable,andinfnctthereiscultivatedlandatpresent whichisindangerofbeingturnedintohousingandfactorylots・Onemightthink thatthetechnologyfbrcultivationofriceandwheatcouldbeincreased,butChina hasreachedthehighestlevelintheworld,sothereisnoroomfbrraisingtheproduc‐
tivityofgrains・Othercountrieswhichexportgrainstoday,includingUS.A,Canada,
Australia・etc・havenoroomfbraugmentingquantities・Inotherwords,thereisno
countrycapableoffeedingtheChinesepeople,MoreovertheefYbctofChina,sgrain
shortagecouldserioulyaffectfbodconditionsinsomeAfricancountriesthathaveto importfbod、IfChinastartsbuyinggrainsontheinternationalgrainmarket,thecost wouldrise・ItwouldbecometremendouslydifTicultfbrthoseAfricancountriesto obtainfbod,becausetheywillnothavesufTicientexchangeablefbreignexchanges・FoUowingthepublicationofthisBrown,sarticle,whichwastakenupsensation‐
allyaUovertheworld,theChinesegovemmentbecameseverelycriticalofhisview
andthereafterChinesepolicy-makersandresearchershavecontinuedtoputfbrth
vanouscounterargumentstohisoutlookThemainpointsofthedisputeareisesti‐matesofthequantityoffboddemand,sizeofincreaseofpopulation,andextentof improvementofnutritionalfbodlifb・Giventhefactthattheestimatesarequite
difTbrent,theresultsnecessarilyvarywildly、Inanycase,whiletheChinesegovern‐
menthascriticizedBrown,scalculationsaboutpotentialfbodproduction,theftlct thatsuchdebatescontinueindicatesthatthefbodsituationinthenearfiltureisnot bright,andonthispointBrownandtheChinesegovernmentauthoritiesareunexpect- edlyinagreement・Inthesummerinl996,Chmaboughtsomuchcornontheinter- nationalmarketthatpricesskyrocketedManyJapanesepoultryfarmerswerehurt
andsomehadtoabandontheirjobs・ThissuggeststhatBrown,sfbarisnotimaginary・
FortheChinesegovernment,Brown,ssupportofitsbirthcontrolpolicymaybe verywelcome・WhilemanypeopleinWesterncountriescondemnChmafbrthis
policy,fromtheviewpointofhumanrights,Brownhasbeenunderstandingofthe
importanceofmaintainingthebalancebetweenthesupplyanddemandoffbod,and33
ChiIuese-typeofMarkctMechanisms-Pcrlb「manccandProspects
hasinsistedonthemaintenanceofthebirthcontrolpolicyinordertopreventpopu‐
lationgrowth・Ofcourse,notonlyhebutalsoothersconcemedwithChinesepopu- 1ationandfbodissuestendtoseelimitingtherateofpopulationincreaseasan indispensablepreconditiontofallingintoaseriousfbodcrisis・However,asTakeuchi haspomtedout,today,sstrictone-childpolicymayleadtoafallintheChinesepopu- lationtosizeofitspresenthalfinthenearfUture,greatlydistortingthelaborstruc‐
ture(Takeuchi,1992).Moreover,asthesocialsecuritysystemhasadoptedthe
prmcipleofthebeneficiarypayingfbroneself;theroleofthefkLmilywillbecome moreandmoreimportant・Underthissystem,eachchildwillhavetocarefbrtwo paremsandfburgrandparentaTheChinesegovernmenthasofYiciallystatedthattheone-childpolicywouldbe requireduntnthepopulationstoppedincreasingin2030.Butrecentlytherehave beenslightchangesintherestriction,thegovernmenthasbegunallowingcouplesin somecitiestohavetwochild正、,astestcases・Bycontrast,someChinesepeoplehave cometosaythattheyoungurbangenerationactuallyhavecometoprcfertohaveone babyratherthantwoormore,andtheyfbcusmuchontheirownlives・Evenifthis tendencybecomesclear,wiUitbepossibletopreventareactionagainstthefbrmer restriction?Thereisnodenyingthatbabyboomsappearafterabanisremoved,
Additionally,onemustnotfbrgetthepresenceofu、official“fbrbidden,,babies,Itis saidthatinruralarea,theaveragefamilyhastwochildreninnorthemparts,and threeinsouthernpartsofthecountry.
3.Unemployment
Anotherseriousproblemisemployment・Itisgenerallysaidthatsome30per‐
centoftheworkersatstate-ownedenterprisesaresuperfluous,andthatinruralareas onehundredmillionpeoplearesubstantiallydisguisedunemployed・
I、`the9thFive-yearplanandLong-termObjectivesfbr2010,,theCCPand centralgovemmentprOjectthatmthenextfiveyears40millionnewjobswillbe created,andthatitwillbenecessarytomove40millionagriculturallaborersinto non-agriculturalsectors,andtomaintaintherateofunemploymentat4%inurban areas・Theypointoutthatinordertorealizethoseobjectives,itwiUbenecessaryto developTVEsandtoencourageprivateenterprise・Nowlwouldliketoexaminethe feasibilityoftheplam
Duringthepast20years,thenumberofnewly-employedworkersperyearwas ataminimumof7,880,OOOinl993,amaximumofl6,760,OOOinl985,fbranaverage recordofl3,270,000.Themainsectorswhichabsorbedthesenewworkerswere agriculture,TVEs,state-ownedenterprisesandprivateenterprises,Theannualaver- ageabsorptionofthesesectorsduringthepastl2yearsisshowninFi9.1,:2,520,OOO inagriculture,6,810,OOOinTVEs,2,480,OOOinstate-ownedenterprises,andinprivate、
enterprises,1,260,0OOinruralareasand68LOOOinurbanareas、Thereisamutual supplementaryrelationinthesizeofworker,sabsorptionbetweenagricultureand TVEs、Whilethenumbernewworkersinagricultureincreasesinrecessionsand decreasesinbusinessuptums,thoseoftheTVEsshowanoppositetrend、Thiselastic‐
ityofabsorptioninagricultureresemblesthatofmodernJapan,whereasitfUnctioned asareservoirfbrsuperfluouslabor・AsfbrtheTVEs,theircapacitytoabsorblabor continuestodecline,asanaturalresultoftherationalizationofenterprises、Though theTVEshavebeenseenasatypeoflabor-intensiveenterprise,thecapital/laborratio
34
TrendofLaborAbsorption Fig.1
20
15
0 5
1 ⑪留日○員」。⑪一旬函
0
5
1986 1987198811891990199119921993111419951996 Year
WholeRuralWorkers
AgricultureForestryFishcrStockRasing
ManuIEcture
BuiIdinglndustry Transportation Comme「ccRestaurant OtheHs
hasbeennslngrapidly、Fromnowon,theywillincreasinglybecomelabor-saving typeenterpnses,Thus,theyarenotexpectedtohaveastronglaborabsorbingeffbct eveniftheycontinuetodevelop・
IncontrasttotheTVEs,asshownbyFiglshows,privateenterpriseshavecome tocontributetoabsorbinglaborersinbothruralandurba、areas・Needlesstosay,
theyonlyhaveacertaincapacitiesfbrlaborabsorption・Manyofthemarepetty enterprises,mostlyrunbyftlmilymembersrelatives. ●
Thoughthereductionofstate-ownedenterpnsesisregardedasakeypointfbr thefinalsuccessofthetransfbrmationoftheeconomicsystemtowardmarketmecha‐
nisms,workersatstate-ownedentelpriseshaveincreasedbytwoorthreemillionover thelastseveralyears、Itonlystartedtodecreaseinl996・
Itgoeswithoutsayingthatmarketmechanismsinvolveconstantcompetition,
andlay-ofYbarenaturallypartofthestrategyofanyenterprises・TheCCPandcentral governmentarerecommendingthatworkersemployedinstate-ownedemerprisesand ingovernmentalorganizationsfIndotherjobsthemselvesintertiaryindustries,and especiallyinservicesectors、Forexample,CCPSecretaryGeneral,JiangZeming,at
35
{二一
IML//,'、-h)ゼゲ'、
11、-V/、
1I、- ̄' b‘ 1J
0β 1J
1プ
 ̄  ̄  ̄
111111
 ̄
 ̄
Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisms-PcrlbrmanceandProspccts
thel5thCongressofCCPheldinl997,saidthatinthelongrunitwouldbeinthe interestsoftheworkingclasstopromotethepolicyofcuttingbackonworkersem- ployedinstate-runenterprises,thoughfbrthetimebeingmanyofthemwouldinevi- tablyfnllintopoverty、
TheCCPandgovernmenthavenochoicebuttosaythis,becausethecentraland localbudgetsareunderstrictconstraints,andcannotcreatejobopportunities・The
experiencesofthepastseveralyearstellsusthatthosewhochangedoccupationhave
fbunditverydifTiculttomaintaintheirpreviouslifb,Jobsinservicesectors,includ- ingrestaurants,retail,repairshop,andtaxidriving,etc・involvesuchfiercecompeti‐tionthatmostworkers,failtoobtainenoughearnings,andontopofthistheyarenot guaranteedsocialwelfare.
V・Conclusion
InspiteoftheoptimisticprOjectionsofChinesescholarsandstatesmenregarding
development,thereremainquiteafbwseriousproblemsinpromotingChina,s、In particular,IwouldliketopointoutthatChinaisconfrontedwithseveralfnctorsthat maybringitbacktoearth・Forexample,itsrisingpopulationmightmakeitsecon-omystagnate・
ChinacannolongertrytorebuildSocialism・Thereisnootherwaybuttomain‐
tainthemarket-orientedandfi・eetradepolicy・However,isitreallycertainthatthe morewidelyandshalPlymarketmechanismsandthefreetradesystemareintro‐
duced,themoresmoothlytheproblemsthatChinafaceswillbesolvedandthemore excellentitseconomicperfbrmancewillbe?
InthenearfUture,asitbeginstoparticipateintotheWTO,Chinawillenlarge itsfbreigntradeandintemationalnnancerelations・Withthedevelopmentoffbreign economicrelations,somecoastalregionswillbeftworedattheexpenseofinteriorand mountainousregions・Asaresult,theincomedifferentialsbetweencoastalandother regionswillgrowmoreandmore,spurringonregionalism、Ifthenecessarycounter‐
measuresarenottaken,thecentripetalfbrceofthenationalstateasafiPameworkof thenationaleconomywillbecomeweakened・
ThedismantlingofthePeople,sCommunesystemandtherefbrmofthesystem ofstate-runenterprisehascausedpeopletoHndthemselveswithoutassistanceWith‐
outsupportbythestateorcollectives,theyaregoingtoworkandlivmgliterally`with anindependentspirit,aswasemphasizedintheperiodoftheCulturalRevolution WhileefYbrtscontinuetoestablishnewsystems,andregionalinstitutionsfbrsocial welfhre,itisinevitablethatindividualsandhhmilieswillbearaheavyburden、The leadersofthecentralgovemmenthavesometimesexpressedtheideathatthefnmily shouldberesponsiblefbrsocialwelfareinruralareas,usingthetraditiona]spiritof respectfbrtheelderly・Inurbanarea,itseemsincreasinglywidelyacceptedthat individualbeneficiariesshouldbeartheexpensefbrtheirbenefits,Thusindividuals andfnmiliesareobligedtomakeindependenteHbrtstomaintaintheirownlives、It maybethatpeopleinvariouslevelsofgovernmentswillbegintoexercisetheir powerstogetprofits・Soontheonehand,thecentralandlocalgovernmentarebeing expectedtoplayamoreimportantrolethanmerely`modestinterventiontomarket,
ontheotherhand,itsfimctionsmustalwaysbemonitoredbypeople.
36
AsoneofChina,sintellectualshaverecognized,thepresenthighlevelofeco‐
nomicgrowthmaybethankstothepostponementofthesolutionofsomeserious problems.
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