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Chinese‑type of Market Mechanisms : Performance and Prospects

著者 KIKUCHI Michiki

出版者 Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University

journal or

publication title

Journal of International Economic Studies

volume 13

page range 25‑37

year 1999‑03

URL http://doi.org/10.15002/00002144

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O1999TheInstitutcofComparativcEconomicStudies,HosciUmiversity

Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisms

-PerfbrmanceandProspects

MichikiKikuchi

Fh“ノリq/ECO"omjcMYbsej[加j…i妙

1.Introduction

TwentyyearshavepassedsinceChinabegantotransfbrmitscentralplanned economicsystemtowardamarket-orientedeconomicone・Duringtheseyears,

China,srealGDPhasincreasedatanaverageannualrateofl0.8%、Thisisthe highestgrowthrecordofanycountryduringthisperiod、Whnemanydeveloping countrieswiththenotableexceptionoftheNIEsandASEANcountrieshavefailed toreachthetake-ofTofeconomicdevelopment,Chinahasbeenlaunchedontoahigh economicgrowthorbit・Inaddition,Chinahassucceededintransfblmingitseco‐

nomicsystemfromcentralplanningtowardmarketmechanisms,adoptinga`gradual- ist,approachincontrasttothe`radicalism,takenbythefbrmerUSSRandEastem Europeancountries・WecansaythatChina,seconomicdevelopmenthasbeenreal- izedthroughtransfblmationoftheeconomicsystem,andtherefbreChinahasbeen victoriousintwoevents,namelyeconomicdevelopmentandthetransfbrmationofthe economicsystem、

Incidentally,Imuststatethatithasbeenacurioustypeofdevelopment,because thishighrateofeconomicgrowthhasbeenaccompaniedwiththestrictestbirth controlpoliciesthathumanbeingshaveneverbeensubjectto、Chineseleaders,

whetherofconservativeorrefblmatistfactions,haveallfavoredbirthcontroLWe maysaythatmodernChineseleaderssharethesameapprehensionsthatMalthusfblt attheendofl8thcentury・TheChinesegovernmenthasfもarCdthatChinamightfnll intoa`Malthusiantrap,、Meaningthatthehugefboddemandbroughtbylargescale populationincreasemayarrestcapitalfbrmationandquicklybringabouteconomic stagnation・

Ontheotherhand,intheautumnofl9941hadachancetoseeaninterCsting automobileshowwhichwasrunbytheChinesegovernmentinPeking、Thegovern- mentinvitedtheleadersofmajorautomobilecompaniesfromadvancedcountriesto takepartintheshowbybringingblueprintsfbracompactsizecarfbrtheChinese people・Itwasagloriousshowwiththemajorcompaniespresentingtheirowncars withgreatefTbrt、TheymadeeveryeffbrttobechosenaspartnersofChinesecar makersandtohavetheirmodeladoptedasapopularnationalcar,TotheseWestern automobileCompanies,onthevergeofthe21thcentury,china,smarketisnodoubt thekeytosurvivaLBefbreandaftertheshow,leadersoflarge-scalecompaniesfrom

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Chinese-typcofMarketMechanisms-PcrfbrmanccfmdProspects

aroundtheworldinvariousindustriescouldbeseenvisitingPekingtobeallowedto entertheChinesemarket、Iwasimpressed,itseemedlikeamoderntributaryfbreign policyinitiatedbytheChinesegovernment・Needlesstosay,china,seconomicper‐

fbrmancewillexertgreatinfluencenotonlyonitsAsianneighbors,includingJapan,

butalsoontherestoftheworld,

Inthisarticle,IwilltrytothrowsomelightonthecharacteristicsofChinese marketmechanismsthathavebroughtaboutthisremarkableeconomicperlbrmance,

andanalyzetheirfntureprospects.

n.DevelopmentthroughTransfbrmation㎡theEconomic System

1.PhasesofEconomicDevelopment

Tostartwith,Iwillbrieflytracetheprocessoftheeconomicdevelopmentofthe pasttwentyyearsBasedonthedecisionadoptedonthethirdplenumofthellth CentralCommitteeoftheChineseCommunistParty(CCP),heldinl978,theHouse‐

holdResponsibilitySystemfbrAgriculturalProductiongraduallytooktheplaceof collectivefarmingunderthePeople,sCommunesystem・Theaimoftheintroduction ofthissystemwastogiveincentivestopeasantsbyallowingthemtofiPeelyselltheir agriculturalproductsafterdeliveringthecontractedproductstolocalgovernment,

Thisshiftinagriculturalproductionsystemledtoconstantincreasesincropproduc- tion,andmadethenon-agriculturaltownshipandvillageenterprises(TVEs)prosper‐

ous、Asaresult,thepurchasingpowerofChinesepeasantsraisedconspicuously・

Theirdesirefbrconsumptionstimulateddomesticdemandfbrconsumergoods,such asapparels,shoes,dailynecessities,andhouses,etc,Thesegoodsweremainlysup‐

pliedbytheTVEs、Thusinruralareas,apositivecirculationbetweengoodsand moneyemerged、Thatistosay,acyclewascreatedofmcreaseofpeasant,sincome leadingtoanexpansionofdemandfbrconsumergoods,andanincreaseofsavings leadingmturntoanenlargementofequipmentfbrproductionbyTVEs,andthisin turntoafnrtherincreaseintheincomeofpeasants・

Inthisway,ChineseeconomicgrowthinthefIrststage,during1979-84,was fimdamentallyachievedbytheincreasesinanagriculturalproductivitythat promptedbytheintroductionoftheResponsibilitySystemfbrAgriculturalProduc‐

tion

ThesecondstagestartedinOctober,1984.Atthethirdplenumofthel4th CentralConunittee,theCCPembarkedonaplantotransfbnnthemanagement mechamsmofstate-runenterprises・WhiletheefTectofthetransfbrmation,asa whole,hasnotbeensofavorable,theaverageincomelevelofurbanworkershas continuedtoraise・Froml984on,ithasbeenoneofthemostimportantfactors behindthehighrateofeconomicgrowth,byenlargingdomesticdemand・Repeating thepatternofpeasants,urbandwellershavebeeninducedtobuyconsumptiongoods andparticularly,`threenewriches,,namelyTVsets,refiPigerators,andwashingma- chines,Thisardentdesirefbrdurableconsumergoodshasstimulateddomestic demandMoreover,therapidincreaseintheincomeofurbanresidentshascreated

ashiftinthecompositionofsavings,from80%(rural)to20%(urban)ml980,to

20%(rural)to80%(urban)inl997(StateStatisticalBureau,1998).Thissuggests

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thattherapidgrowthofthenumberofurbanresidentshascontributedtocapital

fbrmation

Inadditiontotheexpansionofdomesticdemandfbrgoodsandofthecapital supply,wemustconsiderfbreigntradcandinvestmentasabasicfactorbehindeco‐

nomicdevelopmenL

Thetrade/GDPratiohasbeenincreasingconstantlysincel978・Itrosefrom lZ5inl979to45、5inl997(StateStatisticalBureau,1998).ThusChinaisnowranks

asoneofworld,scountrieswithhighesttrade/GDPratio,andgeneraUyseenasa

countrywithanoutward-orienteddevelopmentstrategy、Intheprocessofdevelop‐

ment,thestructureofexportsandimportshasgreatlychanged・Intermsofexport structure,thepercentageofrawmaterialsandagriculturalproductshasdecreased,

whereasthatofmanufacturedproducts,includingmachinery,andelectricappara-

tuses,hasmcreasedremarkably・Intermsofimportstructure,thepercentageofraw

materials,includingcrudeoil,hasbeenonanrisingtrend・

Asfbrfbreignfina、Ce,andinparticulardirectinvestment,thesumandthe

investmentfieldhaveremainedlimited・ItwasnotuntilDengxiaoping,sl992grand

tourofsouthernareasthatfbreigndirectinvestmentbecamefnll-fledged,Froml993 on,therateofincreaseoffbrCigndirectinvestmentcomparedtothepreviousyearhas beenmorethan20%onaverage(StateStatisticalBureau,1998).Inl997thiSsum

reachedUSonemilliondollars,andChinabecameworld'slargestacceptoroffbrcign

investment,Ofcourse,thiswasthemainimpetusbehindChina,srapideconomic growthSowemaycallthisperiodthethirdphaseintheprocessofeconomicdevel-

opmenL

Thisshortsurveyofthepasttwentyyearstellsusthatitisnotprecisetoassert

thatChma,liketheNIEs,realizedeconomicdevelopmentbyadoptinganexport‐

orientedstrategy.

2.Non-MarketFactorsintheChineseMarketSystem

ltmaybecommonsensethatmarketmechanismsbroughtthis1℃markableper‐

fbrmanceofeconomicdevelopmentafterthefailureofthecentralplannedeconomic

system・However,thefbllowingfactsindicatethatwecannotsimplyattributethe perfbrmancetomalketmechanisms,butthatweneedtopayattentiontothebaseand

conditionswhereinmarketmechanismsworkedeffbctively、Needlesstosay,Idonot

intendtosupportthecemralplannedeconomicsystem・Instead,Iwanttomakeclear

ishowmarketmechanismshavecometooperateandtobringaboutthesepositive

results.

DPrematureHeavylndustrialization

First,IwouldliketotakeasanexamplethefbrmergrowthrateofNational Revenue(NR,GDPminustheservicesector,svalueadded)asevidencethatwe cannotignorecontinuityfromthepast・TheNRgrowthratewasnotsolowevenln thecentral-planningperiod,exceptfbrtheSecondFive-Year-Planperiod(1958-62)

whentheGreatLeapForwardcausedminusgrowthDuringeachFive-Year-P1an period,theChinesenationaleconomymaintainedarelativelyhighrateofgrowth:

duringtheflrstperiod(1953-57)NPgrowthwas89%,intheEconomicAdjustment period(1963-65)itwas14.7%inthethirdperiod(1966-70)8.3%,thefburthperiod (1971-75)5.5%,andinthefifthperiod(1976-80)was6.1%(StateStatisticalBureau,

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ChiIuese-typcofMarketMcchzmisms-PerfbmmanceandProspccts

1985).Thesefhctssuggestthatitwasduringthecentral-planningperiodthatthe

preparationsfbrrapidgrowthwereconceivedOfcourse,wemustrememberthatthe economicgrowthinthosedayswasunstable,mainlyowingtopoliticalfluctuations Moreover,therewasneitherstrikingprogressinefficiencyofproductionnorinim- provementinproductquality,becauseofalackofincentivesfbrbothmanagersand workersfbreffbrt,Moreover,copyingStalin,smodelofcentral-planedeconomy・

TheChmesegovernmentpursuedanindustrializationstrategywhichconcentrated investmentmainlyintotheheavymdustrysector,resultinginadistortedindustrial structurewithafmgilelightindustrysector,sbase、

WehaveleamedthatChinesepeopleexperiencedmanymiserableandunfbrgiv- ablethmgsintheprocessofthedevelopmentofheavyindustry・

Inspiteofthedistortionoftheindustrialstructure,weshouldtakeintoaccount theexistenceofprematureindustrializatio、,andthefU11-settypeindustrialstructure ThatunexpectedefTectofthishasbeenanadequatepreparationfbrthepresenthigh speeddevelopment・Objectivelyspeaking,wecannotdisregardthecompletionof heavyindustryasapreconditionfbreconomicgrowth・Withoutsuchanindustrial base,itwouldhavetakenmoretimeandmoneytorealizesuchexcellenteconomic perfbrmance.

2)LandRefbrmandlrrigation

China,srecenteconomicprosperitywouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthe preconditionofthere-distributionoftherighttoutilizearablelandbyindividual households・UnderthePeople,sCommunesystem,arablelandwascollectively ownedandutilizedThetypeofcoUectivefarminghelpedtosolveafbwproblems,

particularlyincreasesinfbodproductiontoemancipatethegrowingpopulationfrom starvation・Thoughsubsistencewasmaintained,itwasdifTiculttoraiselivingstan- dards,becauseofalackofincentivesfbrpeasantstoincreaseagriculturalproduction・

ThiswaswhytheCCPdecidedtoalloweachhouseholdtotakethemitiativefbr agriculturalproduction・Thusruralhouseholdsbecamethefimdamentalumtof agriculture,basedonthere-distributionofarablelandAlthoughtheCCPstilldoes notallowtheprivateownershipofland,therightofpeasantstoutilizetheirallocated landisguaranteedsubstantiallyasiftheywereowners・Atthefburthplenumofthe

l5thCentralComlnitteeheldinOctoberinl998,theCCPdecidedtoprolongthe termsofaUocatedlandutilizationfbranadditionalthirtyyears,

Onthispoint,china,sexperienceintermsoflandrefbrmisessentiallythesame asthatofJapan,TaiwanandKorea,althoughthebackgroundsandmethodswerenot necessarilythesame・Theexperiencesofthesefbureconomiestellsthatlandrefbrm,

ifsmoothlyaccomplishedintheshortterm,successfUUycreatessmaU-holders,who canplayadecisiverolcineconomicdevelopment,notonlyasproducersbutalso consumerswhosustaindomesticdemand・Ithinkthatwideranddeeperresearch needstobeconductedontheroleoflandrefbrmasapreconditionfbrindustrializa‐

tion,fromthepointofcomparativeanalysis・

Withregardtoagriculturaldevelopment,wecannotoverlookthebasiccondi- tionsfbrproduction・Thedistributionofarablelandandconstructionofagricultural infrastructuresuchasdikes,waterways,roadsetc.,wereproductsofthePeople,s Communesystem・Thosephysicalimprovementswereindispensablefbrsustainable mcreaseofagriculturalproductionundertheResponsibilitySystemfbrAgricultural

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Production.ItiswidelyacceptedthatthePeople,sCommunesystemreducedpeas- ant,swillingnesstoworkandthusledagriculturalproductionstagnateunderthe principleofegalitariandistributionlnaddition,theprO]ectstomakevastwasteland intoarablelandandtoconstructtheinfrastructurewerecarriedoutbymobilizing workingpeoplewithoutcompensationNeedlesstosay,theftlults,painsandoppres- sivecontroloverpeasantsunderthePeople,sCommunesystemshouldnotbedenied ltwouldbeoverlysimplistic,however,toconcludethatcollectivefarmingwas wrong,andtosaythattheintroductionofhouseholdfhrmingsuddenlyboostedagri‐

culturalproduction,whileignoringcapitalfbrmationunderthePeople,sCommune

system.

3)TheAmbiguityofProperty,anndC1oseRelationswithLocalGovernment

TVEsareseenasentelprisesofnaturalproductsofthemarketmechanisms、It

iswidelyacceptedthatthehighgrowthofTVEshasbeenfUndamentaUyduetotheir managementprinciples,selfLfinancingbasisandselfLresponsibilityfbrprofItsand losses・Suchanestimation,however,iscorrectasacomparisonwithstate-runenter‐

prises・Moreover,eventhosewhoinsistthatTVEsareadaptabletomarketmecha- nismsrecognizethattheyhaveambiguousOwnership・Thisraisesanissueregarding thetheoryofNewlnstitutionalEconomics(NIE),namely,whyhaveTVEsgrown rapidlydespitetheirambiguouspropertiesownershipSomescholarsarenowpropos- inginterestingconceptstothrowlightontheissue・

WeitzmanandXu(1994)haveproposedaconceptofvaguelydefinedownership incontrasttotraditionalownership、Thatownershipcomesfromthe‘cooperative culture,oftheOrient,whichhasitsowncapabilityfbrsolvingtheproblemsthat

enterprisesface・

DavidDLi(1996)saidasfbllow:facingauncertainmarket,theentrepreneur maywanttoincludethegovemmentasanambiguousowner;inotherwords,the arrangementofambiguouspropertyrightsisaresponsetothegraynessofthemarket,

whichisafbrmofmarketimperfbction

AndJiahuaCheandYingyiQian(1998)understoodlocalgovernmentowner‐

shipasaresponsetoimperfbctstateinstitutions,awayofreducingtheadverseefTbcts

ofstatepredationintheabsenceofinstitutionstoconstrainthestate・

TheirdiscussionssuggestthatChineseeconomicdevelopmenthastakenplacein adiffbrentenvironmentfromtheOccident・Atleast,theyshareaconsensusthat privateownershipisnotanabsoluteconditionfbreconomicdevelopment,

AnotherissueisthatTVEsarecloselytiedtolocalgovernment,andsubstantially

inseparablehomit・

Oi(1995)proposedauniqueconcept,localstatescorporatismUsingthiscon-

cept,sheexplainedthatlocalgovemmentstreatTVEswithintheiradministrative

purviewascomponentsofalargercoporatewhole,andthatlocaloffIcialsactasthe equivalentofaboardofdirectors・

Weingast(1995)stressedthatmodernChineselocalgovernmentshavethefimc‐

tiomofmaintainingamarket-preservmgfbderalism,andplaytheroleofshareholding companiesfbrTVEs・Accordingtohim,thisfimctionandroleoflocalgoveTnments inducedcompetitionamonglocalregions,andincontrasttoLatinAmerica,thereis

noroomfbrattemptsatrent-seeking、

TherearealsobeenmanyhypothesesontherelationbetweenTVEsandlocal

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Chinese-typcofMarketMechanisms-PerIbrmanceandProspects

government,especiaUyfromtheviewpointofcorporategovemance,suchasthe‘M typeenterprise,(QianandXu,1993).Inaddition,somescholarshavefbcusedonthe ChinesetypeofleadershipasafactorfbrthedevelopmentofTVEs(Nee,1989.

Parris,1993)

AswiththeissueoftheownershipofTVBS,therelationofTVEstogovernment isnotclearlyexplamablewithanyparadigmthatisadaptabletotheexperienceof developedcountries・Muchremainstobeunderstoodregardingthepartnershipbe- tweenTVEsandlocalgovernment.

111.Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisxn

1.MarketMechaniSmaSanldealSystem

DengXiaoping,sl992``grandtour,,ofSouthChinainsupportoftherefbnn processwasfbllowedinNovemberl993bythedecisionofthethirdplenumofthe l4thCentralCommitteeoftheCCPtoproceedwiththeconstructionofa‘socialist marketeconomicsystem,.’、itsdecision,theCentralCommitteestressedthatthe establishmentofasystemofmodementerpnseswasthesinglemostpressingproblem facingthecountry,andconcludedthatenterprisesshouldbeweededoutonthebasis ofmarketcompetition,andthatpriorityshouldbegiventoefficiencywhile‘`giving considerationto',thesystemofequaldistributionofincome・Thus,theCCPtook competitionasitsguidmglight,andafTirmedthebare,primitivemarketprincipleof thesurvivalofthefittest・Thereafter,inthedecisionofl5thgeneralmeetingofthe CCPinl997,thisprinciplewasmoreclearlyexpressedasfbllows;‘Throughthe encouragementofmerge応,regulationsfbrbankrupcies,lay-ofYSandpersonnelcuts,

increasesofprofItsandre-employment,asystemofcompetitionamongenterprises basedontheprincipleofthesurvivaloftheHttestshouldbecreated.,This,accord‐

ingly,becameafTirmedasanationalprinciple,leadingtothedefactoeradicationof restrictionsoneconomicactivitiesonthegroundsoftheirmfringinguponsocialist

ideals

2.PrimitivePrinciples

The`Socialistmarketmechanismeconomicsystem,,althoughqualifIedas`social‐

ist,,issubstantiallyacollectionofprimitivemarketmechanismfactorsOncemoti- vationfbrprofItwasofficiallyapproved,anatmosphereofmammonismspreadi、

china、Thedesirefbrdurableconsumergoodshas,ontheonehand,contributedto enhancingdomesticdemandandhasledtothehigheconomicgrowthrate,butonthe otherhand,ithastransfbrmedvaluesandcausedsocialproblemsespeciallyinthe fIeldsofcultureandeducationManypeoplethinklittleofcultureandeducation,

andyoungpeopletendtosteerawayfromjobstothesefIelds,liketeaching、Since teachers,incomelevelislow,itisnotrareinruralareasfbrteachers,alreadyinshort supply,toabandontheirjobs、Pupilswhocan,tpaythemoneyrequiredbyteachers- thoughmostoftheserequirementsareillegal-arefbrcedtoquitschooLOneelder profbssor,whohaslonglivedinPeking,sighedashedescribedthisatmosphere,

tellingmethatmoneywasusuallyrequiredwhenaskingfbrafavorevenfiPomneigh- borsandcolleagues・

Theworkenvironmentsinsomeprivateenterprisesandinfbreign-owned

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enterprisesdemonstratethetypicalcharacteristicsofprimitivemarketmechanisms・

IwUltakeanexamplewhichlwitnessedinl993inWenzhou(acitylocatedm

southrnZhUjiangprovince),whichwasveryfamousasitsprivateSectorwasquite powerfnLMostfnctorieswerefllledwithnoisesandbadsells,andtheydischarged

untreatedwasteintoariver、Amanagerinonefactoryconfbssedthatmostworkers couldnotworkfbrmorethanthreemonthsbecauseofthepoorenvironments・In spiteofthepoorenvironments,largenumbersofyoungworkerswerecomingnot onlyfiPomneighboringvillagesbutalsofiPomremoteprovincessuchasSichuanand AnhuLTheysaidthatthehighincomelevelwasveryattractive,andthattheywould workasmanydailyhoursasPossible・ItseemscommonalloverChinaatpresentfbr workerstoprefertoworklongerandgainmoreincomethantoimprovelaborcondi‐

tionsandtheirlifeenvironments・KristofandWudunnalsoexplainedwhycentral

andlocalgovernmentshavenotintroducedminimumwagesSystems(Kristofand Wudunn,1995).

3.Regionalism

Oneoftheinterestingfactsabouttheseriesofeconomictransfbrmationstaken byChinaisthat,whilemarketprinciplesaresinkmginanddomesticdistribution networksaregrowing,economicblocs,whichareafbatureoffeudaleconomies,are

developingAuthoritiesinsomeprovinceshaveclearlyannouncedthattheywill fbrbidsuchactions・TheCCPandcentralgovernmentoftencaUfbrabreakingdown

thedivisionsandcloseddoorstoregionalandsectoralmarketa

Thesefeudal-styleeconomiesarebelievedtohaveemergedinlargepartdueto theongoingchangeawayfromtheconventionalcentralizedsystem,whereinthe nationalgovemmentheldnearlytotalcontrolovereconomicactivitiestoasystem wheretheeconomyiscontrolledatboththecentralandlocallevels・Alongwiththe increaseintheauthorityoflocalgovemmentsandtheselfLmanagementrightsof

enterprises,enterpriseshavecometorelymoreheavilyonthelocalgovernments,and

thelocalgovemmentsmturnhaveextendedprotectiontothelocalenterprises,acting

as“patriarchs,,oftheregion,Thisrelationshipisconsideredtobeoneofthereasons

whytherehasbeennochangeintheexceSsivelysoftbudgetaryrestraints,asseen typicallyinstate-ownedenterprises,andfbrtheobstructionofinterdependencein management(MacroEconomicManagelnentlssuesGroup,1988).

Thetendencytowardclosed-doorregionalismgoesbeyondeconomics,andmto thejudicialandtheadministrativesectorsaswelLEvenlocalcourtssometimes

cancelmdictmentsagainstlocalofficialsandactinamanneradvatageoustothem- selves(People,Daily〔RenminRibao〕'0ct、26,1993).

4.TraClition

Asmarketmechanismsspread,sometraditionalsystemshavebeenrevived,and

sometraditionalorganizationshavereappearedinslightlychangedfbrmaInparticu‐

lar,inruralarea,sometraditionalsocioeconomicsystemssuchasjointhold‐

Companies(股扮合作)andfIxed-daysmarkets(専業市場)etc、havecometoplay importantrolesindevelopmgtheruraleconomy・

Onetypeofprivateentelpriseisthejointholdingcompany,whichissaidtobe anidealtype,suitablefbrmarketmechanisms・

Chinesehaveatendencytoorgamzegroupscomposedofpcoplefromthesame

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Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisms-PerfbrmaHuceandProspects

Village,orprefbcture、Throughsuchgroups,theycanhelpeachotheratwhichfara‐

wayfromhome、ItisatraditionalsysteminChina・Eventoday,insomebigcities likePeking,ShanghaiandGuanzhou,thereareplaceswithnamessuchasZhejiang

village(断江村)orWenzhoustreet(温州街).Thenamescomefromtheplaces

wheretheywerebom・ThosewhocomefromthesametownorVillage,andare engagedinsmallsizecommerce,andmanufncture,helpingeachother・

Thistypeofgroupissuitablefbrpeopleengagedincommerceandindustryin remoteregions・Theycanlivebyprovidingmutualaidtoeachother,includinggiving andreceivinginfbrmation,debtandcreditoncapital,mordertoavoidrisk,

Some50yearsago,thelateYUjiMuramatsugaveauniqueviewofChinese attitudestowardmarketmechanisms,asfbllows;Generallyspeaking,theChinese lackthespiritofsavingsandareapttoenjoyconsumption・Undertheprincipleof laissez-fkliremarketmechanisms,excesscompetitionappearsamongpettyme1℃hants andartisans,Localgovernmentdoesn,thaveapublicfimction,andthosewhogovern becomeeagertopursuittheirownprofitsontheirbasesofprivatearms・Underthe duplicatedrelationsbetweencentralandlocalgovernment,theshareoffinancial incomeoflocalgovernmenttendstoincrease,andthisisthejustmainfactorbehind theweakeningofcentralauthority、

InChina,marketenvironmentisnotregulatedbygovernment,themonetary systemisnotunited,andthefinancialorderisunstable、Peopleengagedinbusiness mustendeavortokeeptheirprofitssafbfromvariousdangerswithoutrelyingonstate orgovernment・Theydothisbyfbrminggroupswithpeoplewhoarefromthesame village,orprefbcture,ThemotivationtofbrmsuchgroupsisclearlyselfIshAs fnctorsbehindthefbrmationofthesecommunitiesorgroups,bloodbondsandnon‐

proHtablebondsarenotsoimportant・MuramatsusawtheChineseasextremely

`mdividuate,(notindividualinthemeaningofmodernWesternworld)and mammonist(Muramatsu,1949,re-edition,1975).

ManypeoplemaybecriticalofMuramatsu,sviews,buthiseffbrttoproposea paradigm,withwhichonecouldhaveamoreproperunderstandingofthepattemsof Chineseeconomicactivities,canbehighlyestimated.

1V・ReturntotheGC1assicalEconomicWorld,?

LANewTypeofAbundanceWorld

KeiTakeuchicriticizedtheneo-classicaleconomiRts,viewthatmarketmecha‐

nismsarealmighty,andheemphasizedthatthemtemalcontradictionsofcapitalism wouldleadtoanendtoeconomicgrowthallovertheworldHerecognizedthatthe ChineseeconomyhadthepotentialtoattainthesamelevelsofpercapitaGDPas today,sJapanandUS.A,andfbcusedattentiononthefactthatveryconditionsthat madethishigheconomicgrowthpossible,namely,limitsonsuppliesofrawmaterials andenergy,oversupplyofproductionfacultiesbroughtaboutbythehugesizeof machineIyandequipment,over-competitionanddistortionofemployment,diffIculty insecuringfbod,anddestructionofthenamralenvironment,etc、wouldultimately destroycapitalismitselfHeillustratedthisbyshowmgthatifChinadevelopstothe leveloftheadvancedindustrialcountrieslikeJapan,itsannualproductionofsteel wouldbeL2billiontons,surpassingtoday,stotalworldproductionby50%,andthe

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annualproductionofautomobileswouldbemo1℃thanonehundredandfiftymillion peryear・Thissituationisbeyondallimagination(KeiTakeuchi,1995).

Inanycase,themostseriousshort-termproblemfhcingChinawilllikelybefbod shortageinrelationtopopulation、TheChinesegovernmentissoafraidoffnlling intothe`Malthusiantrap,thatithasconsistentlymaintainedaseverebirthcontrol policy、Evenifthenationaleconomyprospers,asaresultofrapidincreasesofpopu‐

lation,itwillsoonerorlaterbegintobefnllintoa`trap'consistingofthefbllowing Circulation:economicgrowth-〉populationincrease--increasingdemandoffbod

→decreaseofsavings--slowdownofcapitalfbrmation→economicstagnation.

2.FoodandPopulation

ltisironicthatLesterBrownhassupportedtheChinesegovernment,birthcon‐

trolpolicy,becausehereachedapessimisticconclusionsregardingtheprospectsfbr fbodsupply,contrarytotheconfldentviewsoftheChinesegovernment、Asiswell known,BrownconcludedthatChina,sfbodsupplywillbedeficientbyabout2025, becauseofthelargelyincreaseinfboddemand(Brown,LesterR.,1995).Thein‐

creasingdemandwouldbecausedbyabsolutepopulationmcreases,aswellasby increasingdemandfbrhighqUalityfbod,meatandfishetc.,owingtotherisinglevel ofmcome・Asfbrthepossibilityofincreasingthefbodsupply,thereislittleunculti‐

vatedlandwhichispotentiallyarable,andinfnctthereiscultivatedlandatpresent whichisindangerofbeingturnedintohousingandfactorylots・Onemightthink thatthetechnologyfbrcultivationofriceandwheatcouldbeincreased,butChina hasreachedthehighestlevelintheworld,sothereisnoroomfbrraisingtheproduc‐

tivityofgrains・Othercountrieswhichexportgrainstoday,includingUS.A,Canada,

Australia・etc・havenoroomfbraugmentingquantities・Inotherwords,thereisno

countrycapableoffeedingtheChinesepeople,MoreovertheefYbctofChina,sgrain

shortagecouldserioulyaffectfbodconditionsinsomeAfricancountriesthathaveto importfbod、IfChinastartsbuyinggrainsontheinternationalgrainmarket,thecost wouldrise・ItwouldbecometremendouslydifTicultfbrthoseAfricancountriesto obtainfbod,becausetheywillnothavesufTicientexchangeablefbreignexchanges・

FoUowingthepublicationofthisBrown,sarticle,whichwastakenupsensation‐

allyaUovertheworld,theChinesegovemmentbecameseverelycriticalofhisview

andthereafterChinesepolicy-makersandresearchershavecontinuedtoputfbrth

vanouscounterargumentstohisoutlookThemainpointsofthedisputeareisesti‐

matesofthequantityoffboddemand,sizeofincreaseofpopulation,andextentof improvementofnutritionalfbodlifb・Giventhefactthattheestimatesarequite

difTbrent,theresultsnecessarilyvarywildly、Inanycase,whiletheChinesegovern‐

menthascriticizedBrown,scalculationsaboutpotentialfbodproduction,theftlct thatsuchdebatescontinueindicatesthatthefbodsituationinthenearfiltureisnot bright,andonthispointBrownandtheChinesegovernmentauthoritiesareunexpect- edlyinagreement・Inthesummerinl996,Chmaboughtsomuchcornontheinter- nationalmarketthatpricesskyrocketedManyJapanesepoultryfarmerswerehurt

andsomehadtoabandontheirjobs・ThissuggeststhatBrown,sfbarisnotimaginary・

FortheChinesegovernment,Brown,ssupportofitsbirthcontrolpolicymaybe verywelcome・WhilemanypeopleinWesterncountriescondemnChmafbrthis

policy,fromtheviewpointofhumanrights,Brownhasbeenunderstandingofthe

importanceofmaintainingthebalancebetweenthesupplyanddemandoffbod,and

33

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ChiIuese-typeofMarkctMechanisms-Pcrlb「manccandProspects

hasinsistedonthemaintenanceofthebirthcontrolpolicyinordertopreventpopu‐

lationgrowth・Ofcourse,notonlyhebutalsoothersconcemedwithChinesepopu- 1ationandfbodissuestendtoseelimitingtherateofpopulationincreaseasan indispensablepreconditiontofallingintoaseriousfbodcrisis・However,asTakeuchi haspomtedout,today,sstrictone-childpolicymayleadtoafallintheChinesepopu- lationtosizeofitspresenthalfinthenearfUture,greatlydistortingthelaborstruc‐

ture(Takeuchi,1992).Moreover,asthesocialsecuritysystemhasadoptedthe

prmcipleofthebeneficiarypayingfbroneself;theroleofthefkLmilywillbecome moreandmoreimportant・Underthissystem,eachchildwillhavetocarefbrtwo paremsandfburgrandparenta

TheChinesegovernmenthasofYiciallystatedthattheone-childpolicywouldbe requireduntnthepopulationstoppedincreasingin2030.Butrecentlytherehave beenslightchangesintherestriction,thegovernmenthasbegunallowingcouplesin somecitiestohavetwochild正、,astestcases・Bycontrast,someChinesepeoplehave cometosaythattheyoungurbangenerationactuallyhavecometoprcfertohaveone babyratherthantwoormore,andtheyfbcusmuchontheirownlives・Evenifthis tendencybecomesclear,wiUitbepossibletopreventareactionagainstthefbrmer restriction?Thereisnodenyingthatbabyboomsappearafterabanisremoved,

Additionally,onemustnotfbrgetthepresenceofu、official“fbrbidden,,babies,Itis saidthatinruralarea,theaveragefamilyhastwochildreninnorthemparts,and threeinsouthernpartsofthecountry.

3.Unemployment

Anotherseriousproblemisemployment・Itisgenerallysaidthatsome30per‐

centoftheworkersatstate-ownedenterprisesaresuperfluous,andthatinruralareas onehundredmillionpeoplearesubstantiallydisguisedunemployed・

I、`the9thFive-yearplanandLong-termObjectivesfbr2010,,theCCPand centralgovemmentprOjectthatmthenextfiveyears40millionnewjobswillbe created,andthatitwillbenecessarytomove40millionagriculturallaborersinto non-agriculturalsectors,andtomaintaintherateofunemploymentat4%inurban areas・Theypointoutthatinordertorealizethoseobjectives,itwiUbenecessaryto developTVEsandtoencourageprivateenterprise・Nowlwouldliketoexaminethe feasibilityoftheplam

Duringthepast20years,thenumberofnewly-employedworkersperyearwas ataminimumof7,880,OOOinl993,amaximumofl6,760,OOOinl985,fbranaverage recordofl3,270,000.Themainsectorswhichabsorbedthesenewworkerswere agriculture,TVEs,state-ownedenterprisesandprivateenterprises,Theannualaver- ageabsorptionofthesesectorsduringthepastl2yearsisshowninFi9.1,:2,520,OOO inagriculture,6,810,OOOinTVEs,2,480,OOOinstate-ownedenterprises,andinprivate、

enterprises,1,260,0OOinruralareasand68LOOOinurbanareas、Thereisamutual supplementaryrelationinthesizeofworker,sabsorptionbetweenagricultureand TVEs、Whilethenumbernewworkersinagricultureincreasesinrecessionsand decreasesinbusinessuptums,thoseoftheTVEsshowanoppositetrend、Thiselastic‐

ityofabsorptioninagricultureresemblesthatofmodernJapan,whereasitfUnctioned asareservoirfbrsuperfluouslabor・AsfbrtheTVEs,theircapacitytoabsorblabor continuestodecline,asanaturalresultoftherationalizationofenterprises、Though theTVEshavebeenseenasatypeoflabor-intensiveenterprise,thecapital/laborratio

34

(12)

TrendofLaborAbsorption Fig.1

20

15

⑪留日○員」。⑪一旬函

0

1986 1987198811891990199119921993111419951996 Year

WholeRuralWorkers

AgricultureForestryFishcrStockRasing

ManuIEcture

BuiIdinglndustry Transportation Comme「ccRestaurant OtheHs

hasbeennslngrapidly、Fromnowon,theywillincreasinglybecomelabor-saving typeenterpnses,Thus,theyarenotexpectedtohaveastronglaborabsorbingeffbct eveniftheycontinuetodevelop・

IncontrasttotheTVEs,asshownbyFiglshows,privateenterpriseshavecome tocontributetoabsorbinglaborersinbothruralandurba、areas・Needlesstosay,

theyonlyhaveacertaincapacitiesfbrlaborabsorption・Manyofthemarepetty enterprises,mostlyrunbyftlmilymembersrelatives.

Thoughthereductionofstate-ownedenterpnsesisregardedasakeypointfbr thefinalsuccessofthetransfbrmationoftheeconomicsystemtowardmarketmecha‐

nisms,workersatstate-ownedentelpriseshaveincreasedbytwoorthreemillionover thelastseveralyears、Itonlystartedtodecreaseinl996・

Itgoeswithoutsayingthatmarketmechanismsinvolveconstantcompetition,

andlay-ofYbarenaturallypartofthestrategyofanyenterprises・TheCCPandcentral governmentarerecommendingthatworkersemployedinstate-ownedemerprisesand ingovernmentalorganizationsfIndotherjobsthemselvesintertiaryindustries,and especiallyinservicesectors、Forexample,CCPSecretaryGeneral,JiangZeming,at

35

{二一

IML//,'、-h)ゼゲ'、

11、-V/、

1I、- ̄' b‘ 1J

0β 1J

1プ

111111

(13)

Chinese-typeofMarketMechanisms-PcrlbrmanceandProspccts

thel5thCongressofCCPheldinl997,saidthatinthelongrunitwouldbeinthe interestsoftheworkingclasstopromotethepolicyofcuttingbackonworkersem- ployedinstate-runenterprises,thoughfbrthetimebeingmanyofthemwouldinevi- tablyfnllintopoverty、

TheCCPandgovernmenthavenochoicebuttosaythis,becausethecentraland localbudgetsareunderstrictconstraints,andcannotcreatejobopportunities・The

experiencesofthepastseveralyearstellsusthatthosewhochangedoccupationhave

fbunditverydifTiculttomaintaintheirpreviouslifb,Jobsinservicesectors,includ- ingrestaurants,retail,repairshop,andtaxidriving,etc・involvesuchfiercecompeti‐

tionthatmostworkers,failtoobtainenoughearnings,andontopofthistheyarenot guaranteedsocialwelfare.

V・Conclusion

InspiteoftheoptimisticprOjectionsofChinesescholarsandstatesmenregarding

development,thereremainquiteafbwseriousproblemsinpromotingChina,s、In particular,IwouldliketopointoutthatChinaisconfrontedwithseveralfnctorsthat maybringitbacktoearth・Forexample,itsrisingpopulationmightmakeitsecon-

omystagnate・

ChinacannolongertrytorebuildSocialism・Thereisnootherwaybuttomain‐

tainthemarket-orientedandfi・eetradepolicy・However,isitreallycertainthatthe morewidelyandshalPlymarketmechanismsandthefreetradesystemareintro‐

duced,themoresmoothlytheproblemsthatChinafaceswillbesolvedandthemore excellentitseconomicperfbrmancewillbe?

InthenearfUture,asitbeginstoparticipateintotheWTO,Chinawillenlarge itsfbreigntradeandintemationalnnancerelations・Withthedevelopmentoffbreign economicrelations,somecoastalregionswillbeftworedattheexpenseofinteriorand mountainousregions・Asaresult,theincomedifferentialsbetweencoastalandother regionswillgrowmoreandmore,spurringonregionalism、Ifthenecessarycounter‐

measuresarenottaken,thecentripetalfbrceofthenationalstateasafiPameworkof thenationaleconomywillbecomeweakened・

ThedismantlingofthePeople,sCommunesystemandtherefbrmofthesystem ofstate-runenterprisehascausedpeopletoHndthemselveswithoutassistanceWith‐

outsupportbythestateorcollectives,theyaregoingtoworkandlivmgliterally`with anindependentspirit,aswasemphasizedintheperiodoftheCulturalRevolution WhileefYbrtscontinuetoestablishnewsystems,andregionalinstitutionsfbrsocial welfhre,itisinevitablethatindividualsandhhmilieswillbearaheavyburden、The leadersofthecentralgovemmenthavesometimesexpressedtheideathatthefnmily shouldberesponsiblefbrsocialwelfareinruralareas,usingthetraditiona]spiritof respectfbrtheelderly・Inurbanarea,itseemsincreasinglywidelyacceptedthat individualbeneficiariesshouldbeartheexpensefbrtheirbenefits,Thusindividuals andfnmiliesareobligedtomakeindependenteHbrtstomaintaintheirownlives、It maybethatpeopleinvariouslevelsofgovernmentswillbegintoexercisetheir powerstogetprofits・Soontheonehand,thecentralandlocalgovernmentarebeing expectedtoplayamoreimportantrolethanmerely`modestinterventiontomarket,

ontheotherhand,itsfimctionsmustalwaysbemonitoredbypeople.

36

(14)

AsoneofChina,sintellectualshaverecognized,thepresenthighlevelofeco‐

nomicgrowthmaybethankstothepostponementofthesolutionofsomeserious problems.

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Brown,LesterR.(1995),Whowill化edChina?W、W、Norton&Company、

Che,JiahuaandQian,Yingyi(1998),InstitutionalEnvironment,CommunityGovernment,

andCorporateGovernance:UnderstandingChina,sTownship-VillageEnterprises,The

JournalofLaw,Economics&Organization,VOL14,No.1(April),1-23.

Kristo6NicholasD.&Wudunn,Sheryl(1995),ChinaWakes-TheStrugglefbrtheSoulof

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[ChugokuKeizainoShakaiTaisei],ToyoKeizaiShinposha

Nee,Victor(1989),ATheoryofMarketTransition:HybridFormsP「opertyRights,and

MixedEconomyinChina,AdministrativeScienceQuarterly,Vol、37,1-27.

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Parris,Kristen(1993),LocallnitiativeandNationalRefbrm:TheWenzhouModelof Development,ChinaQuarterly,No.134(June),242-263.

StateStatistica]Bureau(1985),35G1oriousYears-StatisticalMaterialsl949-1984

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Takeuchi,Kei(1992),ModemizationandtheLawofPopulation〔KindaikatoJinkou Housoku〕,inSekiguchiHetc・ed.,TheRefbrmofEconomicSysteminchina

〔ChugokunoKeizaiTaiseiKaikaku〕,UniversityofTokyoPress・

Takeuchi,Kei(1995),ArmageddonofCapitalism〔ShihonshuginoHarumagedon〕,Shincho,

AugusL

Weingast,BarryR.(1995),TheEconomicRoleofPoliticallnstitutionS:Market-Preserving FederalismandEconomicDevelopment,TheJoumalofLaw,Economics&organiza-

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Weiztman,MartinL・andXu,Chenggang(1994),ChmeseTownship-VillageEnterprisesas VaguelyDeHnedCoopertaives,JoumalorComparativeEconomics,VoLl8,No.Z

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37

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