Macroeconomic Statistical Relationships in the Japanese Economy

(1)

Macroeconomic Statistical Relationships in the Japanese Economy

著者 MIYAZAKI Koichi

出版者 Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University

journal or

publication title

Journal of International Economic Studies

volume 2

page range 95‑112

year 1987‑03

URL http://doi.org/10.15002/00002072

(2)

JournaloflntemationalEconomicStudies(1987)No.２，９５－１１２ o1987ThelnstituteofComparativeEconomicStudies,HoseiUniversity

ＭＡＣＲＯＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＣＳＴＡＴＩＳｎＣＡＬＲＥＬＡＴＩＯＮＳＨ四ＳＩＮＴＨＥＪＡＰＡＮＥＳＥＥＣＯＮＯＭＹ

ＫｏｉｃｈｉＭＩＹＡＺＡＫＩ

Ｅｍ/bsso必死“ﾉひＱ/Ebo"o、に３，〃､sei【ﾉ""αｍｙ

ThispaperdiscussessomestatisticalrelationshipsobservedintheJapaneseeconomyduringaboutthel960s andl970s・Thestatisticalfactsdealtwithinthispapertaketheformofcorrelationcoefficientsbetweenvarious pairsofmacroeconomictimeseriesvariables・TheselectioncriterionfOrthepairsofeconomicvariablesisthat theyaｪeinterestingtheoreticaUy,ThetaskoftheoreticaUysystematiｚｍｇｔｈｅｅｃｏ肋ｏｍｉｃ勉ctsobtahDedandex‐

aminingthemmmoredetail,willbedoneinafUturepaper・A1ongwiththecorrelationcoefTicientand,ｍｓｏｍｅ^● cases,thecorTespondinggraphs,ｏｆeachpairofeconomicvariables,someexplanationwmbeprovidedastowhy

thepaiIisinteresting．

1．TheAveragePropensitytoSaveandNonJContractCashEamings

Letusflrstlookatthefbllowmgexample．

（thepersonalpropensitytosave)ｖｓ．

（consumerTriceinf1ation）

63.6％(56-81）

62.1％(56-73）

WereadsuchanexpressionasfbUows．‘ＡＶＳ．Ｂ,meansthepairofvariables concemeｄｌｎｔｈｉｓｅｘａｍｐｌｅＡｉｓｔｈｅｐｅｒｓｏｎａｌａｖeragepropensitytosaveandBis

consumer-pricemflation、Thesourcesanddetailedstatisticaldefmitionsofthese

variablesareglveninTheExplanationsandSourcｅｓｏｆ､EconomicVariables，in AppendixThefigures63､6％（56-81）refertothecorrelationcoefficienｔ（Ｒ２）

ｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＡａｎｄＢｆｂｒｔｈｅｐｅｒｉｏｄｏｆｌ９５６throughl98LSimilarly62､1％(56-73）

referstothecorrelationcoefficientbetweenAandBfbrtheperiodofl956through

l973，

Thehighpositivecorrelationbetweenthesavingratioandinf1ation,indicatedin Relation(1),isinterestmgandwecontinuebyinvestigatingthecorrelationbetweeｎ

ｔｈｅｆｂｌｌｏｗｍｇｖａｒｉａｂｌｅｓ．

（therateofincreaseinthenominalwage-rate）

29.2％(56-81）（２）

81.2％(56-73）

59.9％（74-81）

＊）TheR2va1uesforthecorrclationbetwecntherateofincreascofthcconsumerpriceindexandtherateof mcreaseinthemominalwage-ratearecalculatedaS25.6％（52-66),85.2％(67-73),９５．５％(74-81),ａｎｄ

４５．５％(67-81)．

－９５－

(3)

Sincewealsoknowthatthereisafairlyhighpositivecorrelationbetweenconsumer-

priceinflationandnominal-wageinflation*〕Relation（１）maybeduetotherela-

tionindicatedbyRelation(2).Thisdoesnotmean，ｏｆcourse，thatwemaintain thatthecausalorderisone-wayfromnominal-wageinflationtoconsumelTrice innation・InconnectionwithRelation(2),ｗｅａｌｓｏｈａｖｅ

（thenon-contractcasheammgsratio）

86.5％(56-81）（３）

Thenon-contractcashearningsincludebonuspayments，andthenon-contractcash earningsratioistheratioofthenon-contractcashearningstototaleamingsper

regularworker,ThisRelation(3)seemstoprovideacluetounderstandin2Relation

(1)．Relation（３）maybeinterpretedasfbllows：Whentherateofincreaseinthe nominalwage-rateishigh（low)，thenon-contractcasheamingsratiｏｗｎｌｂｅｈｉｇｈ (low）becausethemacroeconomicconditionswillbegood(bad)thenThehighnon- contractcashearningsratiomeansahighratioofbonuspaymentstototalearnings，

ａｎｄｉｆａｍａＪｏｒｐａｒｔｏｆｔｈｅｂｏｎｕｓｐａｙｍｅntsissavedthenthepropensitytosaｖｅｗｉｌｌｂｅｈｉｇｈＴｈefirstofthosetwosuppositionsmaybepartlysustainedbythefbllow- ingcorrelation．

（thenon-contractcasheammgsratio)ｖｓ．

37.9％(54-81）（ｓｅｅＦｉｇｌ）

８０９％(54-73）（seeFig.1-1）（４）

83.9％(74-81）（seeFig.1-2）

２１７Ｉ８９００％００００１００回

④】ロヱー①山口三一句ＥＥｃＺＱ二一ロー専闇の』：】｝ＣＱ］畠①二一

￣

辺囮

四国四国囮図画回国囮國｜図画図画回国図画匝匝

図画図

国

20.00２５．００３０．００

（％）

theNonContractCashEamingsRatio 15.00

1０．００ 5.00

0.0

1954-81

Fig.１

－９６－

(4)

ＭＡＣＲＯＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＣＳＴＡＴｌＳＴＩＣＡＬＲＥＬＡＴＩＯＮＳＨＩＰＳＩＮＴＨＥＪＡＰＡＮＥＳＥＥＣＯＮＯＭＹ

０１００，％０００

４！６３０２１ ④一旬隼①胃三一呵昌ＥＣ室⑩二］臣一色：⑭８■ご◎⑭】■崖①二］回国回国

図画画

国画画同同国

図画図回

国国

１､５０ 15.00 1７．５０ 2０．００ 2２．５０ 25.00 2７，５０

（％）

thelVon・ContractCashEarningsRatio (1954-73）

Fig.１－１

０１０００％０００

７１８９０２１

①』畠農因三一句唇ＥＣＺ⑩二】Ｅ：３５臣ご◎①］畠⑭二］

回

囮固

囮

固四図

回

２ 00 2５．５０ 26.00 2６．５０ 2７．００ 2７．５０ 2８．００

（％）

tlMJNonContractCasllEarningSRatio (1974-81）

Fig.１－２

Itseemsimportanttodistinguishovertimeworkhoursfromthenon-contractcash earningsinthiscontext、Ｆｏｒ，ａｓｔｈｅｆｂｌｌｏｗｉｎｇｒｅｓｕｌｔｉｎｄｉｃａｔｅｓ，ｔｈｅｃｏｒｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｂｅ－

ｔｗｅｅｎｔｈｅｓｅｔｗｏｉｓｎｅｇａｔｉｖｅｆｏｒｌ９５４－８１．

（ｔｈｅｎon-contractcashearningsratio)ｖｓ．

（thenon-scheduledworkhoursratio）

-23.7％(54－８１）（５）

wherethenon-scheduledworkhouｒｓｃｏｎｓｉｓｔｏｆｏｖｅｒｔｉｍｅｗｏｒｋｈｏｕｒｓｗｈichiscalled

`zangy6､workhoursNeverthelessitisremarｋａｂｌｅｔｏｓｅｅｔｈａｔ

（thenon-scheduledworkhoUrsratio)ｖｓ．

－９７－

(5)

ＫｏｉｃｈｉＭＩＹＡＺＡＫ１

（thejob-offBrratio）

００％(56-81）（６）

whichindicatesthattheoveraUcorrelationbetweenthenon-scheduledworkhours ratioandthejob-offerratio（thatｉｓ,theratioofjob-offerstoapplicants,ｏｆnon‐

regularandpart-timeworkers)iszeroComparethisRelation(6)withthefbllowing

Relation(7)．

（ｔｈｅｎon-contractcasheamingsratio)ｖｓ．

（thejob-offbrratio）

37.0％(56-81）

70.0％(56-73）（seeFig2-1）（７）

８９．０％(74-81）（seeFig.2-2）

1．８０

囮囮回匝

画1．２０

苗崖出④学云）’二．『⑲二］

画画図画匝回

囮国回

0．６０

国匡１厘

0.0

24.00２６．００28.00

（％）

ｔｈｅNon､ContrnctCushEarningsRatio 22.00

2０．００ 18.00

16.00

（1956-73）

Fig.２－１

1．２５回

Ｃ宮甸些出①軍（）ｔｐＣ『④吾

1．００

図画固囮

両一0．７５

回固

０．５

27.00２７．５０２８．００

（％）

ｔｈｅNon・ContTactCashEarningsRatio 2６．５０

26.60 25.50

25.00

(1974-81）

Fig.2-2 -98-

(6)

ＭＡＣＲＯＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＣＳＴＡＴＩＳＴＩＣＡＬＲＥＬＡＴＩＯＮＳＨＩＰＳＩＮＴＨＥＪＡＰＡＮＥＳＥＥＣＯＮＯＭＹ

Thus,thebetterthejob-ofTercondition,thehigherthenon-contractcashearnings・

ThecloserelationbetweenRelationｓ（４）ａｎｄ（７）ｗｉｌｌｂｅveryclearlysustainedby Relation（８）inthefbUowingsectionThisRelatioｎ（８）indicatesthatthedemand‐

fb形laborcondition（whichistakenasanmnportantmacroeconomiccondition）is highlycorrelatedwiththerateofmcreasemthenominalwage-rate．

2．TheJob-offerRatioasanlndexofWorkIntensity

Firstletushavealookatthefbllowing．

（thejob-offbrratio)ｖｓ．

（therateofinclCaseinthenommalwage-rate）

91.1％(56-73）（seeFig.3-1）

76.2％(74-81）（seeFig3-2） ⁽⁸⁾

０１０００％０００４く６８０２１ ①曽座‐①欝三一目』ＥｃＺ⑭二］ｇ①：①出目】］。①］何酉①二一

国

囮固唾

画

図画回国囮｜型回

国国

国画

0.0 ０．３０ 0．６００．９０１．２０ 1．５０ 1．８０

（％）

theJob・OlYerRatio 1956-73）

Fig.３－１

７く８９０２１ ①］畠‐馳甸三一甸昌ＥＣｚｅ二］巨一①⑩ロ①ｂ回国ｃ①］畠の君の

､00

％）厄

0０

囮囮

回国００

図圃匝１

0

0．５０ 0．６２ 0．７５０．８７１．００ 1．１２１．２５

(1974-81） theJobOfferRatio (％）

Fig.３－２

9９

(7)

ThisrelationmaybesaidtobeananalogueofthePhnlipscurvewhichwasoriginally atrade-offrelationshipbetweentherateofunemploymeｎｔａｎｄｔｈｅｒａｔｅｏｆｍｃｒｅａｓｅ

ｉｎｔｈｅｎｏｍｉnalwage-rateThehighcorrelationofRelation(8)canbeinterpreted

tomeanthat,whenthelabormalket(fbrpart-timeworkers,etc）istight,sothat

thereexistssomeexcessdemandinthelabormarket,andtherateofincreaseinthe

nominalwage-rateisgreater（whichisthePhillipsexplanation).However,thereis anotherwayofexplainingRelation(8)．Ｔｈａｔｉｓ,somegeneralbusinesscondition，

suchasthatmeasuredbythejob-ofTerfatio,willbepositivelycorrelatedwiththe

revenueconditionsoffirms・Therevenueconditioncouldbeimprｏｖｅｄｂｙｎｏｔｏｎｌｙ

ｇ1℃ａｔｅｒｑｕａｎｔｉｔｉｅｓｓｏｌｄｂｕｔａｌｓｏｂｙａｎａccelerationoftheinflationofthepricesof theproducts・Ｗｈｅｎｔｈｅｆｉｒｍ，srevenueconditionsarebetter,thelaborunionswill obtainahigherrateofincreaseinthenominalwage-rateThisexplanationdiffers fromthefbrmerexplanationinthatitdoesnotdependontheassumptionthat

thereexistsanexcessdemand（orexcesssupply）inthelabormalketwheneverthe

nominalwage-rateincreases（decreases)．Infactwehavethefbllowingrelation- shipsinfnvorofthislatterexplanation

（therateofincreaseinthenominalwage-rate)ｖｓ．

（thewholesale-pricemnation）

35.6％(52-81）（seeFig.４）

88.0％(67-73）（seeFig4-1）（９）

66.8％(74-81）（seeFig.4-2）

０１００００００％７く８９０２１

旦畠「・欝彦一目一Ｅ・Ｚ。二一Ｅ『。：：：己。２畠。言

画

回国画囮同同囮回国図国岡、同国画同両囮図画画

国画

回画

国

37.50

（％）

30.00 2２．５０

15.00 7．５０

７．５００．０

theRateoflnCreaSeintlleWhoIesaIePricelndex (1952-81）

Fig.４

－１００－

(8)

０１０００％０００７く８９０２１．］畠‐・凶”二一：肩・Ｚ。二］Ｅ・鋤５５巨『］：］畠。二一

固画因匝1岡同

－７．５０

（1967-73）

0.0 7.50 １５．００２２．５０30.00３７．５０

（％）

theRateoflncreaseintIueWholesalePricelndex

Fig､４－１

７Ｉ８９０２１２塁‐・凹慰芦一画ＥＥ・Ｚ。二］巨一・緬圃・』・ここ：】凸。吾

､００

％）回

､00

固固

００

四囮

四回

､０

－７．５０ 0.0 ７．５０ 1５．００ 2２．５０ 3０．００ 3７．５０

（％）

theRateoflncreaseintheWhoIesaIePricelndex (1974-81）

Fig.４２

－１０１－

(9)

(thejob-offErratio)ｖｓ．

（wholesale-priceinHation）

４４４％(58-66）

83.0％(67-73）

87.0％(74-81）

(seeFig.5-1）

(seeFig5-2）

(10）

1． 8０

◎二飼笙ｈ⑩逵○０三．『④言

１． 5０

画回

回国回

2０ 1．

画

,ＯＬ

－３．５００．

１７．５０

（％）

14.00 10.50

７，００３．５０

0.0

ｔｈｅＲＭｅｏｆｌｎｃ】･CascintheWIuoIcsalePricelndGx (1967-73）

Fig.５－１

､２５

回

Ｃ宕甸便｛埆四逹○’一ｓ『①二］

１．００

０．７５

回国囮

国回回

0.50Ｌ

-７．５０ 37.50

（％）

30.00 2２．５０

15.00 7．５０

0.0

tlueRntGOflncreaseintheWl1olesalePricelndGx (1974-81）

Fig.５－２

-102-

(10)

BehindRelation(9),ｔｈａｔis,thecorrelationbetweenthewage-rateinflationandthe wholesale-priceinfIation,boththecommoditymarketandthelabormarket(inthe aggregate）shouldbeconsidered・Ｔｈｅｃｏｓｔｅｆｆｂｃｔｏｆａｒｉｓｅｉｎｔｈｅｎｏｍｍａlwage-rate istoshiftupwardthesupplycurvesfbrallcommodities,ｗｈｉｃｈｔｅｎｄｓｔｏraisethe generallevelof（wholesale）prices・Further，commoditypricemflationtendsto shiftupthemargmalefficiencyschedulefbrcapital（i､ｅ，thedemandcurvefbr investment）ａｎｄｈｅｎｃｅｔｏｓｈｉｆｔｕｐｔｈｅｄｅｍａｎｄｃｕｒｖefbrlabor・Therefbreprice

inHationhasatendencytoraisethenominalwage-ratedeterminedinthelabor

market、Thelattercausaleffectfromprice-inflationtowage-infIationmaybecoL nectedwiththePhillipsPMundelleffbct，ｔｈａｔｉｓ,whentheexpectedprice-inflationis

high，thedemandfbrcommoditiesisstron9.ThiSefTectisalsorelatedtoRelation

(10）abovaArisemtheexpectedrateofprice-inflationtendstoshiftupthede- mandculvefbrmvestmentHenceｉｔａｌｓｏｔｅｎｄｓｔｏｓｈｉｆｔｕｐｂｏｔｈｔｈｅａｇｇregate

demandculvｅｆｂｒｃｏｍｍｏｄｉｔｉｅｓａｎｄｔｈｅｄｅｍａｎｄｃｕｌvefbrlabor､Therefbreittends

toraisethejob-offerratiQWeassumeherethatwhentheactualwholesale-price infIationrateishigh，theexpectedwholesale-priceinnationisalsohigh,sothatthe actualinflationtendstobecorrelatedpositivelywiththejob-ofTerratio・

However,thecausalorderfromthejob-offbrratiotoinnationcannotbeeasily neglected・Whenthedemandfbrlaborisstrong，thewage-innationwnlbehigh，so

thattheprice-mflationwillbealsohighduetocosteffects・

Directlyrelatedtothetitleofthissectionisthefbllowing．

（thejob-ofTerratio)ｖｓ.(theoperatingratio）

67.8％(61-81）（ｓｅｅＦｉｇ６）（１１）

１３０．

(1975＝１０ 0

0）画

囮囮

回

● ● ｎｍ叩）（、叩》（四〃】口■■△■■■△ 可■０一一一■墜凶臣一一⑤■①（］〔）④二』

０囮

図画匝回四回

回回

図画囮国

囮

100. ０

0．５００．７５ 1.00 1．２５ 1．５０ 1．７５２．００

（％）

theJobOHerRatio (1961-81）

Fig.６

Theoperatmgratioor，capacityutUizationrate，ｉｓｄｅｆｉｎｅｄａｓｔｈｅｄｅｇｒｅｅｏｆｕｔＵｉza- tionofproductioncapacity,ｔｈａｔis,theratiooftheproductionindextotheproduc- tioncapacitymdex・Ｔｈｅｏｐｅｒａｔｍｇｒａｔｉｏｉｓｈｉｇｈｗｈｅｎｔｈｅｅxistingcapitalstock (machinery,equipmentandbuildingsfbrproductiveuse)isheavilyutilized､Relation

－１０３－

(11)

(11）indicatesthatproductioncapacityismoreheavilyutUizedwhenthedemand forlabor,fbrbothregularandpart-timeworker,isstrongerProductioncapacityis moreutilizedwhenandonlywhenlaborismoreintensivelyemployed.`Employed, meansherethatpotentialproductivity，mainlyofregularworkers,isrealizedMore intensiveuseoftheworkhoursoftheaverageregularworker,ratherthanextraor additionalworkhours，ｉｓｗｈａｔｉｔｍｅａｎｓｔｏｓａｙｔｈａｔｌａｂｏｒｉｓｍoreintensivelyem- ployedTheaboveRelation（９）issignifIcantinthatitstatisticallyconnectsthe degreeofworkintｅｎｓｉｔｙｏｆａｎａｖｅｒａｇｅｗｏｒｋｈｏｕｒｏｆａｒｅgularworlGerwiththe demand-and-supplyconditionofthenon-regularlabormarketindicatedbythejob‐

offCrratioByRelation（１１）wecanexaminethedemandconditionofllotonly non-regular,butalsoregularlabor,ａsindicatedbythejob-offBrratio・

Thejob-offbrratio,ortheratioofjob-offerstoapplicants,indicatesameasure ofstrengthofthedemandfbrnon-regularworkers，thosepeoplewhoarebetween jobsanｄｐａｒt-timeworkers・Itdoesnotmcludenewgraduates・Itdoesnotdirectly

measuredemandconditionsfOrregularworkers・However，sincetheoperatingratio andthedegreeofutUizationofproductioncapacitywillbehighwhenthejob-offer ratioishigh(Relation（１１)),thejob-offerratiomayalsobeviewedasanindicatorof demandconditionsfbrregularworkers・Those(regular）alreadyemployedworkers maybefimctioningasflexible，buffe猴likesuppliersofadditionallabor，additional inthesenseofanadditiontotheintensityofworkincludedｍｏｎｅｕｎｉｔｏｆａｂｓolute wolktime・Theadditionallaborinthissensewillbeinevitablyconcealedbehindthe statisticalfiguresofthejob-offerratio､Thejob-offerratiooftentakesafigurewide- lydifferentfiomunity，ａｎｄｗｅｗｏｕｌｄｎｏｔｂｅｗｒｏｎｇｉｎｔａｋｉｎｇｉｔasimplyingarela‐

tivelylargeexcessoftotaldemand(supply)overtotalsupply(demand)ｏｆlabor．

3．TheJob-offerRatioamdlnfIation

AlongwithRelation（10）wealsohavethefbllowingrelationships（l2Ml3)，

and（14)．

（thejob-offerratio)ｖｓ.(consumelTriceinflation）

55.5％(56-74）

50.3％(58-66）（12）

88.6％(67-73）

69.3％(74-81）

Thedemand-fo形laborconditionindicatedbythejob-offerratioisalsohighly correlatedwithfbreigneconomiccondiｔｉｏｎｓｓｕｃｈａｓｔｈｅｉｍｐｏｒｔ－ａｎｄｅｘｐｏｒt-price

innations．

（thejob-ofTerratio)ｖｓ.（import-goodpriceinflation）

７７０％(58-66）

８４０％(67-73）（13）

79.4％(74-81）

and（thejob-offerratio)ｖｓ.(export-goodpriceinflation）

13.4％(58-66）

81.3％(67-73）（14）

97.2％(74-81）

-104-

(12)

AsstatisticallyverifIedbelow（Relation（15)),theimport-goodpriceinflationand theexport-goodpriceinnationarehighlycolTelatedwitheachother,ｓｏｔｈａｔｗｅｍａｙｒｅｇａｒｄｂｏｔｈｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｍｅasuresasmdicatorsofthewolldeconomicconditionFrom thisviewpomt,Relations（13）ａｎｄ（14)canbeinterpretedtosignifythesamething：

thatthedomesticdemand-fbHaborishighlyaffectedbyconditionsoｆｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄ

ｅｃｏｎｏｍｙ．

（import-goodpriceinflation)ｖｓ．

（export-goodpricemnation）

48.6％(58-66）

86.4％(67-73）（15）

87.7％(74-81）

AtthebeginningofSection2,wesawthehighcorrelationbetweenthejob-offer ratioandthenominalwageinflation，andconsideredtwopossibleexplanations・

Thesecondofthoseappearsmorepersuasivethanbefbre,ifwetakefbreigneco‐

nomicfactorsinconsiderationThisisbecausethenominal-wageinnationissome- whatconPelatedwiththeimport-goodpricemflation．

（import-goodpricemflation)ｖｓ．

（therateofmcreasemthenominalwage-rate）

40.0％(53-73）（16）

50.5％(74-81）

TwoviewpomtsregardmgRelation（16）ａｒｅpossible・Oneistoviewitasfairly correlate。，ａｎｄｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｉｓｔｏｖｉｅｗｉｔａｓａｌｏｗｃｏｒrc1ationFromtheflrstview,ｔｈｅ correlationbetweenthejob-offbrratioandthenominal-wagemflatio、（Relation (8)）ｌｏｏｋｓａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｓａｍｅａｓｔｈｅｃｏ汀elationbetweenthejob-ofTerratioandthe import(orexport)-goodpricemflation（Relation（13）ｏｒ（14))andwemayexplain thefbnnerinawaysimilartothatoftheexplanationfbrthelatter・Ｔｈａｔｉｓ，the demand-fblmaborconditionmdicatedbythejob-offerratioisgoodifthedemand fbrcommoditiesisstrong，ａｎｄｔｈｅｃｏｍｍｏｄｉｔｙｄｅｍａｎｄｗｎｌｂｅｓｔｒｏngwhenthe domesticandwolldpricemflations,includmgthenommalPwageinnation,ａｒｅhigh・

ThesecondexplanationinSection2saysthatthebusinessconditions(orthelevel ofcommodity-demand）isgoodifdomesticpricemflationishigh,ａｎｄｗｅｍａｙｅｘ‐

tendsuchapropositiontotheworldeconomy・Namely,whentheimportorexport‐

goodpricemflationishigdl,worldcommoditydemandisstrong,sothatthedome3 ticjob-offerratioishigh・Andbehmdthisproposition,thePhnnps-Mundellrelation maybeconsideredasitspossiblethoereticalbasia

Ontheotherhand,ifwetakethesecondviewtoregardRelation(16),asbemg nothighlyconPelated，ｉｔｗｍｂｅｍｏｒｅｐｅｒｓｕａｓｉｖｅｔｏｓａｙｔｈａｔｓtrongerdomesticde‐

mandfbrgoodsandlaborraiseswage-mnationFor，ifthecorrelationbetweenthe nominal-wageinnationandtheworldpricemflationisnotstrong，whereasthe colTelationbetweenthefbrmerandthejob-offerratiojSstrong(Relation(8)),ｔｈｅｎｗｅｗｍｈａｖｅｔｏｓａｙｔｈａｔｉｔｗｎｌｂｅｔｈejob-offerratioratherthantheworldprice infl9tionthatmorestronglyexplamsthemovementofnominal-wageinflation

Above，wedistinguishedbetweentwoviewsastohowstronglytoregardthe correlationmRelation（16)．ＮｏｗｌｅｔｕｓｔｕｍｔｏＲｅｌａｔｉｏｎ（10）ｉｎＳｅｃｔｉｏｎ２・As statedmthatsection,therecanbetwoexplanationsfOrthisRelation（10Loneis toexplainitbythecausalorderfromwholesale-pricemflationtothejob-offerratio，

－１０５－

(13)

ＫｏｉｃｈｊＭＩＹＡＺＡＫＩ

ａｎｄｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｉｓｔｏｅｘｐｌａｉｎｉｔｂｙｔｈｅｒeverseorderThefirstisrelatedtothePhmipsF

Mundelleffect、Relation（10)，concerningtherelationshipbetweenthejob-offer ratioandthedomesticpricemflation，providespercentagefiguねsaslargeasthose

whichRelations（13）ｏｒ（14)show(whichrelatethejob-offbrratiotofOreignprice

inflation)．Inthisconnectionwealsohave

（wholesale-pricemnation)ｖｓ．

（import-goodpriceinnation）

８８９％(53-81）

76.1％(53-73）（17）

92.9％(74-81）

（wholesale-pIicemnation)ｖｓ．

（export-goodpriceinflation）

16.2％(53-57）

59.3％(58-66）（18）

74.6％(67-73）

９０５％(74-81）

WeremarkthatthecolTelationsbetweenthedomesticwholesale-priceinflationand thefbreigninflationratesarehighermthemorerecentperiodsthaninearlierones・

Togetherwiththeserelationships（17）ａｎｄ（18)，Relation（10）inSection2 seemsverysimnartoRelations（13）ａｎｄ（14).Andasimilareconomiclogiccanbe consideredbehindanyoneofthosethreerelationsllips､Thatis,thehigheristherate ofmfIation，ｔｈｅｂｅｔｔｅｒｗＵｌｂｅｔｈｅｄｏｍｅｓｔｉｃｄｅｍａｎdfOrlabor､Furthermore，ｉｆｗｅｃａｎａｓｓｕｍｅｔｈａｔｔｈｅｄｏｍｅｓｔｉｃｅｃonomicconditionshavelittleinfluenceonworld inflation（thesocalled‘smallcountry，assumption)，wecamothelpbutexplain Relations（13）ａｎｄ（14）bythecausalorderfiomworldinfIationtothejob-offer ratio・AndthePhiUip3Mundelleffect(seethepartofSection3belowRelation(10)）

wouldberelevantinthiscontext・ByRelations（17）ａｎｄ（18),wewillarguethat wholesale-pricemflationoccursbecauseworldmnａｔｉｏｎｏｃｃｕｒｓｆｂｒｗｅｗｉｌｌｎｏｔｂｅａｂｌｅｔｏａｒｇｕｅｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｗａｙａｒｏｕｎｄｂｙｔｈｅｓｍall-countryassumptionThehighcor‐

relationofRelation（10）mSection2willthenbeexplainedbythecausalorder fiFomwholesale-pnceinnationtothejob-ofHerratio・

ＨｏｗｅｖｅｒｉｔｉｓｓｔｉＵａｎｏｐｅｎｑｕｅｓｔｉｏｎａstowhetherthesmalLcountryassumptiOn appliestotheJapaneseeconoｍｙ,anditshouldbeinvestigatedastowhatperiods itmaybesoregarded、Therefbre，ｉｔｉｓｓｔｉｌｌｔｏｂｅｄｅｃｉｄｅｄｗｈｉｃｈｃａｕｓａlorderingis thestrongerinexplammgRelation（10)inSection2．

4．EconomicGrowthandtheLaborProductivity A1ongwithRelatioM11）inSection2,ｗｅａｌｓｏｈａｖｅ

（theoperatingratio)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreasemlabo形productivity）

43.3％(61-81）

47.4％(61-73）

21.0％(74-81） (19）

－１０６－

(14)

whichshowsthattherateofincreasemlabolTroductivity(productionperworker）

ispositivelycorrelatedwiththeoperatingratio・ThereasonfOrthisresultmaybe clalifiedbythefbllowing．

（therateofincreaseinlabolTroductivity)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreaseinindustrialproduction）

８０２％(61-81）（20）

Ｔｈａｔｉｓ，therateofincreaseinlabolTroductivityishighwhentherateofincrease inthelevelofrealindustlialproductionishighlnotherwords,laborTroductivity increasesmorewhenthedemandfbrcommoditiesrisesatagreaterpace，andthe operatingratioandthejob-offerratioarebothlarge

lntheprocessofeconomicgrowth,thelevelofrealinvestment（peryear)will increaseatamoreorlesssteadyrateandtherateofincreaseinrealinvestmentmay beexpectedtobepositivelycorrelatedwiththedemand-for-1aborconditionHow‐

everwehavethefbllowingresult．

（therateofincreaseinrealprivateinvestment)ｖｓ

（thejob-offerratio）

00％(56-81）（２１）

Thisresultiscontrarytotheaboveexpectation・Ｉｎａｓｉｍｎａｒｓｅｎｓｅｗｅａｌｓｏｈａｖｅ

（therateofincreaseinrealGNP)ｖｓ．

（thejob-offbrratio）

0.0％(56-81）（22）

Ｈｏｗｅｖｅｒｉｔｉｓｒｅｍａｒｋａｂｌｅａｎｄ，ｉｎａｓｅｎｓｅ，alittlesurprisingthattherateofincrease inrealprivateinvestmentishighlypositivelycorrelatedwithrhelare〃j"creqsein thelevelofthejob-ofYerratioitself

（therateofincreaseinrealprivateinvestment)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreaseinthejob-offcrratio）

63.7％(57-81）（seeFig.７）（23）

50.0 (％）

旨⑩Ｅ］晩①シニの温夛官色【甸彰崖匡①吻呵①出Ｕ臣『］Ｃ①】甸崖①二］

囮国回国回囮図画画画囮画匝回

2５．０回

図囮

回回囮

国国回

０．０

囮

25.0

5２．５１７．５３５．０５２，５

（％）

theRateoflncreaseintheJobOflCrRatio

35.0 1７，５ 0.0

Fig.７

(1957-81

1０７

(15)

Theresultofsuchahighcorrelatioｎｄｏｅｓｎｏｔｄｉｆｆｅｒｅｖｅｎｉｎｔｈｅｃａｓｅｉｎｗhich investmentcoversnotonlyprivatebutalsopublicinvestmentaswellashousing (thatis,coversall`realdomesticcapitalfbrmation')．

（therateofincreaseinrealdomesticcapitalfbrmation)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreaseinthejob-offerratio）

６１９％(57-81）（24）

Inpart，thepercentagefigureinRelation（24）ｉｓａｓｈｉｇｈａｓｔｈａｔｏｆＲｅｌａｔｉｏｎ（23）

becausetheshareofprivatemvestmentintotalcapitalfbmationislalgelnasimilar

sensewealsohave

（therateofincreaseinrealprivatecapitalfbrmation)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreaseinthejob-ofYerratio）

61.4％(57-81）（25）

Theseresultsmayindicatethatthelevelofthejob-offerratiofluctuatesinabusi- nesscycle，ｒｉｓｉｎｇｉｎｔｈｅｐｈａｓｅｏｆｒｅｃｏｖｅｒｙｏｒｅｘpansionandfallinginthephaseof recessionorcontractionTheeconomywillkeepgrowing，onanaverage，ｉｎｓｕｃｈａ

`businesscycle，，sothatrealinvestmentitselfｗｉｌｌａｌｓｏｔｅｎｄｔｏｇｒｏｗ・Ｔｈｕｓｒｈｅｒａｒｅ

〃ｊ"creaseinthejob-offerratiomaybeviewedasanindicatorofadifferentaspect ofbusinessconditionsthanthejob-offerratioitselfNowitisinterestingtoseethat

（therateofincreaseinlabomroductivity)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreasemthejob-offerratio）

８８」％(61-81）（ｓｅｅＦｉｇ８）（26）

100.0

（％）

Ｃ垣甸“』①宰云〕１つＣ『①｜】巨一①⑩句①』Ｕ臣目］。①］甸孚『⑭二》

回

5０．０

回國画

図四回回岡同岡

国回国

囮固回

囮回

0.0

－５０．０ ^７

－４．００

U96L81）

0.0 4.00 8.00 12.00１６．００20.00

（％）

tｈｅＲａｔｅｏfIncreaseinLaboT-Probuctivity

Fig.８

thatｉｓ,therateofincreaseinlabor-productivityisstronglycolTelatedwiｔｈｔｈｅｉｎｄｅｘｏｆｔｈｅｃｈｍｇｅｍｔｈｅｄｅｍand-fblLIaborconditionlfwetakethelevelofthejob‐

offbrratioitselfinsteadofitsrateofincrease,wehavethefbllowingresult．

（therateofincreaseinlabor-productivity)ｖｓ．

－１０８－

(16)

（thejob-offerratio）

28.8％(61-73）（27）

－８６％(74-81）

SeealsoRelation（１９)．ThoughRelation（１９）showsafairlygoodcorrelation (43.3％）betweentheoperatingratioandtherateofincreaseinlabolTroductivity，

ｔｈｅｐｉｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅｂｕｓｉｎｅｓｓｃｙｃｌｅａｍidgeneraleconomicgrowth，discussedabove，

willbefUrtherconfIrmedbythefbllowingresult．

（therateofincreaseintheoperatingratio)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreaseinlabor-productivity）

83.4％(62-81）（seeFig.９）

98.4％(62-66）（28）

90.5％(67-73）

97.0％(74-81）

回国回国囮図

０１００００％００

● ● ● ８く９０９１

口湧垣呂已。』」‐』◎一用罠屋の切愚目昌〕Ｃｇ呵函①二］回国

画囮図画

回国囮囮回

回囮

15.00 10.00 5．００ 0.0 ５．００１０．００１５．００

（％）

theRateoflncreaseintheOperatingRatio (1962-81

Fig.９

ThustheoperatmgratiotendstoincreasemoreinthephaseofrecoveryorexpaL sionandless（algebraically）inthephaseofrecessionorcontraction，aroundthe generaltrendofsteadyeconomicgrowth

ThefbllowingRelation（29）seemsunderstandableasconsistentwithRelation (23)ａｎｄ(26)．

（therateofincreaseinrealprivateinvestment)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreaseinlabolTroductivity）

61.9％(61-81）（29）

Itisinterestingtoseethat

（therateofmcreaseinthejob-offerratio)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreasemtheoperatingratio）

77.4％(62-81）（ｓｅｅＦｉｇｌＯ）（30）

－１０９－

(17)

ＫｏｉｃｈｉＭＩＹＡＺＡＫＵ

０１００００％００００く５５１

昌扇崖揖・岩‐□。『。二］言…：Ｅ］｝：》畠。二一回国回国国図^回

四画囮図画

国画回回囮

厄Ｉ回

囮

－１５．００－１０．００-5.00

（1962-81）

0.0 ５．００１０．００１５．００

（％）

theRateoflncreulseintheOperatingRatio Fig.１０

thiscompareswithRelation（１１）inSection2,whichrelatesthejob-offerratioand theoperatingratiothemselves，ａｎｄgivesacorrelationcoefficientof67.8％（61-

81)．

5．ThelmcreaseinLaborProductivityandtheRateoftheWagelnflation

LetuslookatthefbUowingrelation

（thcrateofincreaseinlabor-productivity)ｖｓ．

2.0％(６１－８１）

３５９％(61-73）（31）

-20.7％(74-81）

Macroeconomicsoftenteachesthatｔｈｅllighertherateofincreaseinlabo形

productivity，ｔｈｅｈｉｇｈｅｒｗｉｌｌｂｅｔｈｅｒａｔｅｏｆｉｎｃｒｅａseinthenominalwage-rate・But thisconventionalassertionmaybeempiricallyrejectedbytheaboveRelation(31)．

However，whenweconsiderthefirstdifYerencesinwage-infIation,ｗｅｇｅｔｔｈｅｆｂｌｌｏｗ‐

ingresultofRelation(32)．

（theincreasefTomthepreviousyearoftherateofincreaseinthe nominalwage-rate)ｖｓ．

（therateofincreaseinlabolTroductivity）

５４４％(６１－８１）（ｓｅｅＦｉｇｌｌ）

69.8％(61-66）

（32）

69.1％(67-73）

39.4％(74-81）

－１１０－

(18)

ＭＡＣＲＯＥＣＯＮＯＭ１ＣＳＴＡＴＩＳＴＩＣＡＬＲＥＬＡＴＩＯＮＳＨｌＰＳＩＮＴＨＥＪＡＰＡＮＥＳＥＥＣＯＮＯＭＹ

０１００００００％８く９０９１

倉冨一］目で２巳阻Ｃｓｑ』Ｅ④爵色』Ｕ目｝。④］呵崖①二］回国回国四国匝匝図画図画

回国匠図画回

囚囮

－１２．００－８．００－４．０００．０４．００8.00

（％）

thelncTeasefromthePreviousYearo【ｔｈｅＲａｔｅＭＩｎｃｒｅａｓｅｉｎｔｈｅＮｏｍｉｎａｌＷｕge-Rate 16.00

Fig.１１

Ｉｔｉｓｒｅｍａｒｋａｂｌｅｔｏｓｅｅｔｈａｔｔｈｅｍｃｒeqsemtherateofincreaseinthenominalwage- rateissignificantlyandpositivelycorrelatedwiththerateofincreaseinlabor- productivity（Theincreaseofthewage-inflationmayofcoursetakenegativevalueS)．

ThisRelation（32）maybeunderstandableasconsistentwithRelation(8)inSection ２andRelations（28）ａｎｄ（30).Therateofincreaseinlabor-productivityishigh whentherateofincreaseininvestmentishighThegrowthrateofthelevelof production，ａｎｄｈｅｎｃｅｔｈｅｒａｔｅｏｆｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅｉｎｌａｂor-productivity，ｗｉｌｌｂｅｈｉｇｈｅｒｉｆｔｈｅｇｒｏｗｔｈｒａｔｅｏｆｄemandfbrcommoditiesishigher、Ａｎｄthegrowthrateof investmentishiｇｈｅｒｗｈｅｎｔｈｅｇｒｏｗｔｈｒａｔｅｏｆｄｅｍａｎｄｆbrcommoditiesishigher、

Butthegrowthrateofinvestmentishighlycorrelatedwiththe（ｒａｔｅｏＯｊ"creasc mthejob-offerratioratherthanwiththejob-offerratioitself（Relation（23)）

Thejob-offerratioisstronglycorrelatedwithwage-inHation,ｓｏｔｈａｔｗｅａｌｓｏｈａｖｅａｓｉｍｉｌａｒｈｉｇｈｃｏrrelationbetweentheminincrementalterms・HenceRelation(32)．

ThisrefbrsusbacktoRelation（29）above・Inatheoreticalmodelofsteadyeco‐

nomicgrowth，labor-productivitymayriseataconstantrate，andinvestmentmay rlsealsoataconstantrate、Fromadifferentstandpoint，investmentraisespro‐

ductivity・Thirdly，asindicatedabove，theaggregatedemandfbrcommoditieｓｔｅｎｄｓｔｏｋeepstepwiththelevelofinvestmenLThesethreefactorsseemtoliebehind Relation(29)．

Appemdix

TheSourcesandExplanationsoftheEconomicVariables

（１）personalpropensitytosave：ＫｅｊｚａｊＹｍｍｚ，theEconomicPlanningBureau，

definedaspersonalsavingdividedbypersonaldisposableincome．

（２）consumer-priceinflation：Ecollo"zlicSmrjsがCSA"""α/，ｔｈｅＢａｎｋｏｆＪａｐａｎ，

definedastherateofincreaseinthｅｃｏｎｓｕｍｅｒｐｒｉｃｅｉｎｄｅｘｆｏｒａｌｌｏｆＪａｐan，

－１１１－

(19)

comparedwiththefigureoftheyearbefbre．

（３）rateofincreaseinthenominalwage-rate:ESA，ｃｏｍｐａｒｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｆｉｇｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅｙｅａｒbefbre,manufacturing．

（４）non-contractcasheamingsratio：ＥＳ。，definedastheaveragenon-contract cashearningsdividedbytotalearningsforregularworker．

（５）ｎｏn-scheduledworkhoursratio：ＥＳＡ，definedasnon-scheduledaverage monthlyworkhoursfbrregularworkers，dividedbytotalaveragemonthly workhours,allindustriesexceptselvices．

（６）job-ofYerratio:ＥＭ,definedastheratioofjob-offerstoapplicants．

（７）wholesale-priceinHation:ＥＥＡ,。efmedastherateofincreaseinthewholesale priceindex,ｃｏｍｐａｒｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｆｉｇｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅｙｅａｒbefbre

（８）operatingratio:ESAdefinedastheratiooftheindexofproductiontothe indexofproductivecapacity（bothseasonallyadjusted）totheproduction capacityindexusmgcomparablecommodities．

（９）import-goodpriceinHation：ESAdefinedastherateofincreaseintheim- portpriceindex，ｃｏｍｐａｒｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｆｉｇｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅｙｅａｒbefbre

(10）export-goodpriceinfIation:ＥＳＡ,definedastherateofincreaseintheexport priceindex,comparedwiththefigureoftheyearbefbre．

(11）rateofincreaseinlabo炉productivity:ESA．

(12）rateofincreaseinindustrialproduction:ESA，definedastherateofincrease intheindexofindustrialproduction,inmmingandmanufacturing,compared withtheHgureoftheyearbefbre．

(13）realprivateinvestment:ＢＩＭ，definedastherealgrossfixedcapitalfbnnation ofmachineryandequipmentintheprivatesector，anitemincludedinreal grossdomesticcapitalfbrmation．

(14）realdomesticcapitalfbrmation：ERAdefinedasrealgrossdomesticcapital fbrmationofprivateandgovernmentsectorsincludingincreaseininventories．

(15）rea］privatecapitalfbrmation：ESA，definedastherealgrossflxedcapital fOrmationoftheprivatesectorincludingprivateresidentialinvestment，

machineryandequipment．

－１１２－