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132 

A Summary of 

New Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling  by  Profi田sorMasanao Aoki (University of California at LA) 

delivered on December 17, 1997 

百

1eBook (entitled New Approach目 的MacroeconomicModeling: Evolutionary  Stochastic

均

namics,Muli

叩

leEquilibria, and Externalities as Field

弓

7ects,M田anao Aoki, Cambndge University P田<S,New York, 1996) analyzes. sh町emarket m which  a large number of participants employ one of two types of strategies, and in which  p町ticipantsare subject to social influences or they exhibit herd

」

ikebehav10r. 

The number of agents of each type evolve with time. Pric白 血dvolumes to clear 

曲

emarket also ch四gewith time. These dyn鉱 世 田arecaused in part by agen

臼

chang‑ mg their strategies in response to past performances and to the fractions of agents of  each time. These ch叩gesare modeled by jump Markov process田 Ina simple case,  the number of agents are mdependent Poisson random variables In a shghtly more  interesting case

血

enumber of one type of agents are P01sson random variables, and  the other is conditionally Poisson, given

出

enumber of the one type of agents 

Key Words Eqmlibrium Dis

凶

bution,Transition Rates, Jump Markov Processes.  [Applicant Professor KAIZOJJ, Tais

白 ］

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