in PROBABILITY
ARBITRAGE-FREE MODELS IN MARKETS WITH TRANSACTION COSTS
HASANJAN SAYIT
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Worcester Polytechnic Institute email: [email protected]
FREDERI VIENS1
Department of Statistics, Purdue University email: [email protected]
SubmittedMay 18, 2010, accepted in final formJuly 2, 2011 AMS 2000 Subject classification: 91G10, 91B25, 60G22
Keywords: Financial markets, arbitrage, transaction cost, sticky process, fractional Brownian mo- tion, time-change
Abstract
In the paper[7], Guasoni studies financial markets which are subject to proportional transaction costs. The standard martingale framework of stochastic finance is not applicable in these markets, since the transaction costs force trading strategies to have bounded variation, while continuous- time martingale strategies have infinite transaction cost. The main question that arises out of[7] is whether it is possible to give a convenient condition to guarantee that a trading strategy has no arbitrage. Such a condition was proposed and studied in[6]and[1], the so-called stickiness property, whereby an asset’s price is never certain to exit a ball within a predetermined finite time. In this paper, we define the multidimensional extension of the stickiness property, to handle arbitrage-free conditions for markets with multiple assets and proportional transaction costs. We show that this condition is sufficient for a multi-asset model to be free of arbitrage. We also show thatd-dimensional fractional Brownian models are jointly sticky, and we establish a time-change result for joint stickiness.
1 Introduction
In[7], a market with multiple risky assets and proportional transaction costs were studied. In the setting of [7], the market contains one risk free asset, used as a numeraire and hence assumed identically equal to 1, and drisky assets, given by anRd−valued processYt = (Yt1,Yt2,· · ·,Ytd)
1SUPPORTED BY NSF GRANT DMS 0907321.
614
that is càdlàg (right- continuous with left-limits), adapted, and quasi-left continuous (i.e., Yτi = Yτ−i , 1≤i≤d for all predictable stopping timesτ). Transaction costs are proportional and each unit of numeraire traded in the risky assets generates a transaction cost ofkunits that are charged to the riskless asset account.
Trading strategies are given by adapted, left-continuous,Rd−valued processesθ= (θt1,θt2,· · ·,θtd) that are of finite variation and satisfy the following admissibility condition:
Vt(θ) =
d
X
i=1
Z t
0
θsid Ysi−
d
X
i=1
( Z t
0
kYsid|Dθi|s+k|θti|Yti)≥ −M a.s. (1) for some determistic M > 0 and all t ≥ 0. Here Dθi is the derivative of θti in the sense of distribution, and |Dθi|t is the total variation measure associated to Dθi in [0,t]. In (1), the termPd
i=1
Rt
0kYsid|Dθi|scorresponds to the cost of trading andPd
i=1k|θti|Yti corresponds to the liquidation cost at the end of trading.
Definition 1. An admissible trading strategyθ is an arbitrage strategy if Vt(θ)≥0and P(Vt(θ)>
0)>0for some t>0.
Remark 1. Due to Proposition 2.5 of [7] and the quasi-left continuity assumption on the price processes, left-continuity of the trading strategiesθ can be relaxed to predictablity.
In the case when there is only one risky asset, the model (1) reduces to Vt(θ) =
Z t
0
θsd Ys−k Z t
0
Ysd|Dθ|s−kYt|θt|. (2)
This model was studied in the recent papers[8,1]. In[8], the notion of stickiness (see definition 2.9 of[8]and also Proposition 1 of [1]) was introduced as a sufficient for no-arbitrage in the model (2). It was also shown that a large class of Markov processes and models with full support in the Wiener space are sticky. In[1]stickiness was further studied and other classes of sticky processes were provided. In this note, we introduce a condition, which we call joint stickiness, and show that it is sufficient for no-arbitrage in the model (1), see proposition 1. Then we show joint stickiness remains unchanged under composition with continuous functions, see proposition 2. As an example, we show the joint sticky property for independent fractional Brownian motions with possibily different Hurst parameters, see Proposition 3. Lastly, we show a time change result on joint stickiness and provide non-semimartingale joint sticky processes by using time change, see Proposition 4 and corollaries thereafter.
2 Main Results
LetXt= (Xt1,X2t,· · ·,Xtd)be a càdlàg process adapted to the filtrationF= (Ft)t∈[0,T]. For anyF stopping timeτ≤T, letAτ,εi ={supt∈[τ,T]|Xit−Xτi|< ε}for anyε >0.
Definition 2. We say that Xt= (X1t,X2t,· · ·,Xdt)is jointly sticky with respect toFif
P[∩di=1Aτ,εi |Fτ]>0 a.s. (3)
for anyFstopping timeτ≤T, and anyε >0.
In the following proposition, we show that joint stickiness implies no arbitrage in the model (1).
Proposition 1. Let X = (Xt1,X2t,· · ·,Xtd)be a jointly sticky, adapted, and càdlàg process . Then, the market (1,eX0t,eX1t,· · ·,eXdt)does not admit arbitrage with propotional transaction costs k for any k>0.
Proof. Fixk>0. Assumeθs= (θs1,θs2,· · ·,θsd)is an arbitrage strategy. Then there is t∈[0,T] such that Vt(θ)≥0 and P(Vt(θ)> 0)>0. Let τ=inf{s≥ 0 :θsi 6= 0,i =1, 2,· · ·,d} ∧t. If τ= t almost surely, then the left-continuity of the paths and the definition of τimpliesθs =0 on[0,t]for almost allω, thusVt(θ) =0 almost surely and this contradicts with the assumption P(Vt(θ)>0)>0. Therefore we assume that the eventA={τ <t}has positive probability. Let Ysi = eXsi, ˜Ysi =Yτ∧i s, and Zsi = Ysi−Y˜si for all 1≤ i≤ d and alls ∈[0,t]. We can write (1) as following
Vs(θ) =
d
X
i=1
Zs
τ
θµidY˜µi+
d
X
i=1
Zs
τ
θµid Zµi−k
d
X
i=1
( Zs
τ
Yµid|Dθi|µ+|θsi|Ysi). (4) onAfor anys∈[τ,t]. Observe thatPd
i=1
Rs
τθµidY˜µi=0 and
d
X
i=1
Zs
τ
θµid Zµi =
d
X
i=1
Zsiθsi−
d
X
i=1
Zs
τ
Zµid Dθµi. onAfor anys∈[τ,t]. Thus (4) becomes
Vs(θ) =
d
X
i=1
(Zsiθsi−k|θsi|Ysi)−
d
X
i=1
( Zs
τ
Zµid Dθµi+k Zs
τ
Yµid|Dθi|µ) (5) LetAτ,εi ={sups∈[τ,t]|Xsi−Xτi|< ε}for anyε >0. SinceXs= (Xs1,Xs2,· · ·,Xsd)is jointly sticky, the eventAε1=A∩(∩di=1Aτ,εi )has postive probability for anyε >0. Observe that onAε1,|Zsi| ≤(eε−1)Ysi for alls∈[τ,t]and for each 1≤i≤d. Therefore onAε1, we have
|Zsiθsi| ≤(eε−1)|θsi|Ysi (6) and
| Z s
τ
Zµid Dθµi| ≤(eε−1) Zs
τ
Yµid|Dθi|µ (7)
for alls∈[τ,t]. From (5) (6), and (7) we conclude that onAε1 Vs(θ)≤(eε−1−k)
d
X
i=1
[|θsi|Ysi+ Zs
τ
Yµid|Dθi|µ], ∀s∈[τ,t] (8)
Note thatPd
i=1|θti|Yti+Rt
τYsid|Dθi|s>0 almost surely onA(this follows from the definitions of Aandτ). Therefore from (7) it follows thatVt(θ)<0 onAε1⊂Awheneverε <l n(1+k). This contradicts with the assumption P(Vt(θ)≥0) =1, sinceP(Aε1)>0 for allε >0. This shows that θ can not be an arbitrage strategy. This completes the proof.
Example 1. Let L1t,L2t,· · ·,Ldt be a sequence of independent Lévy processes in[0,T]with respect to the filtrationF. Then L= (L1t,L2t,· · ·,Ldt)is jointly sticky with respect toF. To see this, letτbe any stopping time ofF. Let Aτ,εi ={supt∈[0,T−τ]|Lτ+ti −Liτ|< ε}for each1≤i≤d and for anyε >0.
Then we have
P(∩di=1Aτ,εi |Fτ) =P(∩di=1Aτ,εi ) =
d
Y
i=1
P(Aτ,εi )>0.
The first equality above follows from the independence of Lτ+ti −Liτ with Fτ for each1≤ i ≤ d, the second equality follows from the independence assumption on Lit,i = 1, 2,· · ·,d, and the last inequality follows from stickiness of lévy processes (the stickiness of Lévy processes was shown in[8]).
Proposition 2. Let Xt = (X1t,Xt2,· · ·,Xtd)be a jointly sticky process with respect to the filtrationF. Let{f1,f2,· · ·,fd}be a family of real valued continuous functions onRd. Let Yti=fi(X1t,X2t,· · ·,Xdt) for each i∈ {1, 2,· · ·,d}. Then the process Y= (Yt1,Yt2,· · ·,Ytd)is also jointly sticky with respect to F.
Proof. Fix anyε >0. For any stopping timeτ≤T, letBiτ,ε={supt∈[τ,T]|Yti−Yτi|< ε}for each i∈ {1, 2,· · ·,d}. We need to show
P[∩diBiτ,ε|Fτ]>0 a.s. (9) and this is equivalent to showing P[A∩(∩diBτ,εi )]>0 for anyA∈ FτwithP(A)>0. FixA∈ Fτ with P(A) > 0, and let M > 0 be such that the event A0 = A∩ {−M ≤ Xτi ≤ M, 1 ≤ i ≤ d} has positive probability. Note that A0 ∈ Fτ. The set O = [−M−1,M+1]×[−M −1,M+ 1]× · · · ×[−M−1,M+1] is a closed bounded set inRd. Since f1,f2,· · ·,fd are continuous on Rd, they are uniformly continuous onO. Therefore, there is a δ0 > 0, such that for each 1≤i ≤d,|fi(x)−fi(y)|< εas long as x,y ∈Oand||x− y||< δ0. Letδ1=min(1,δ0)and letAτ,δi 1 ={supt∈[τ,T]|Xti−Xτi|< δ1}. SinceXt is jointly sticky, the setA1=A0∩(∩di=1Aτ,δi 1)has positive probability. OnA1, we haveXτ∈O,Xt ∈O, and||Xt−Xτ|| ≤δ1≤δ0for allt∈[τ,T]. ThereforeA1⊂ ∩diBτ,εi . SinceA1⊂A, we haveP[A∩(∩diBτ,εi )]>P(A1)>0. This completes the proof.
Example 2. Let B = (B1t,B2t,· · ·,Btd)be d−dimensional Brownian motion. Then the process X = (|B1t|13,|B1t +B2t|13,· · ·,|B1t +Bdt|13)is not a semimartingale; see Theorem 72 on page 221 of[10]. However, X is jointly sticky thanks to Proposition 2 and Example 1.
The following corollary extends the Proposition 1 in[1].
Corollary 1. If the process Xt= (X1t,X2t,· · ·,Xtd)is jointly sticky, then for any real valued continuous function g:Rd→R, the process Yt=g(X1t,Xt2,· · ·,Xtd)is sticky.
In the following Proposition shows that any finite sequence of independent fractional Brownian motions with possibily different Hurst parameters is jointly sticky.
Proposition 3. Let BHti =Rt
−∞[(t−s)Hi−12−1{s≤0}(−s)Hi−12]d B(ti),i=1, 2,· · ·,d be a sequence of independent fractional Brownian motions in[0,T]with respective Hurst parameters H1,H2,· · ·,Hd∈ (0, 1). Then for any deterministic continuous functions f1,f2,· · ·,fd on [0,T], the process B = (BHt1+f1(t),BHt2+f2(t),· · ·,BHtd+fd(t))is jointly sticky .
Proof. Let
Ω ={ω∈C(R):ω(0) =0 and∀t∈R, lim
s→t
ω(t)−ω(s) q
|t−s|l o g(|t−s|1 )=0},
Btheσ−algebra of subsets ofΩthat is generated by the cylinder sets andPthe Wiener measure on (Ω,B). Let (Ω(i),B(i),P(i)),i = 1, 2,· · ·,d be d copies of (Ω,B,P). With slight abuse of notation, we denote byPthed−dimensional Wiener measureP(1)×P(2)× · · · ×P(d)on(Ωd,Bd), where(Ωd,Bd)is the product space of(Ω(i),B(i)),i=1, 2,· · ·,d. Without loss of generality, we assume that for each 1≤i≤d,BHti is defined on(Ωd,Bd,P)by the improper Riemann-Stieltjes integrals
BHti(ω) = Zt
−∞
[(t−s)Hi−12−1{s≤0}(−s)Hi−12]dω(i)(s), t≥0. (10) whereω= (ω(1),ω(2),· · ·,ω(d))∈Ωd (see the proof of Theorem 4.3 of[3]). LetFB= (FtB)t∈[0,T] be the filtration given by
FtB=∨di=1σ{BHsi: 0≤s≤t}.
Then BtH1,BHt2,· · ·,BHtd are independent fractional Brownian motions in the filtered probability space(Ωd,Bd,FB= (FtB)t∈[0,T],P). LetFtΩd=
∨di=1σ{{ω∈Ωd:ω(i)(sj)≤aj,j=1, 2,· · ·n}:−∞<sj≤t,aj∈R,n∈N}
Then(ω(1)(t),ω(2)(t),· · ·,ω(d)(t))isd−dimensional Brownian motion in the filtered probability space (Ωd,Bd,FΩd = (FtΩd)t∈[0,T],P). It is clear thatFtB ⊂ FtΩd,t ≥0, thereforeFB stopping times are alsoFΩd stopping times.
Now, letτbe any stopping time ofFBand let
Aτ,εi ={supt∈[0,T−τ]|BHτ+it−BτHi+fi(τ+t)−fi(τ)|< ε}
for each 1≤i≤dand for anyε >0. To show the jointly stickiness ofB, we need to show P(∩di=1Aτ,εi |FτB)>0 a.s.
However, sinceFτB⊂ FτΩd, it is sufficient to show
P(∩di=1Aτ,εi |FτΩd)>0 a.s. (11) We divide the proof of (11) into two steps.
(A)For eachω(s)∈Ωd set
π(1i)ω(s) =ω(i)(s)1(−∞,τ(ω)](s),s∈R, π(2i)ω(s) =ω(i)(τ(ω) +s)−ω(i)(τ(ω)),s≥0, for all 1≤i≤d. For each 1≤i≤d, let
Ω(i)1 ={π(i)1 ω:ω∈Ωd}, Ω(i)2 ={π(i)2 ω:ω∈Ωd}
and letB1(i)andB2(i)be theσ−algebras generated by the cylinder sets ofΩ(1i)andΩ(2i)respectively.
Also let Ωi = Ω(1)i ×Ω(2)i × · · · ×Ω(id),i = 1, 2 and letBi = Bi(1)× Bi(2)× · · · × Bi(d),i = 1, 2.
It is clear that π(1i) : Ωd → Ω(1i) isFτΩd measurable for each 1 ≤ i ≤ d, hence the map π1 : Ωd→Ω1given byπ1ω= (π(1)1 ω,π(2)1 ω,· · ·,π(1d)ω)isFτΩd measurable (for notational simplicity we writeπ1ω:=ω1 = (ω(1)1 ,ω(2)1 ,· · ·,ω(1d))) . Also it follows from Theorem 6.16 of[13] that π2ω:= (π(1)2 ω(s),π(2)2 ω(s),· · ·,π(2d)ω(s))isd−dimensional Brownian motion independent from FτΩd. Define a mapτ0:Ω1→Rbyτ0(ω1):=τ(ω), whereω∈Ωd is such thatω1=π1ω(note that ifω0,ω∈Ωd andπ1ω0 =π1ω, thenτ(ω) =τ(ω0), sinceτisFτΩd measurable). Then for eachω∈Ωd, we can write
(Bτ+Hit−BτHi)(ω) = (12)
Zτ0(π1ω)
−∞
[(τ0(π1ω) +t−s)Hi−12−(τ0(π1ω)−s)Hi+12]dπ(1i)ω(s) +
Z t
0
(t−s)Hi−12dπ(2i)ω(s)
Note thatτ0(π1(ω)) =τ(ω), thereforeτ0(π1(·))isFτΩd measurable.
(B)LetAτ,εi be as in (2) for each 1≤i≤d. For eachω1= (ω(1)1 ,ω(2)1 ,· · ·,ω(1d))inΩ1, define hit(ω1):=
Zτ0(ω1)
−∞
[(τ0(ω1) +t−s)Hi−12−(τ0(ω1)−s)Hi+12]dω(i)1 (s) +f(τ0(ω1) +t)−f(τ0(ω1)),
and for eachω2= (ω(1)2 ,ω(2)2 ,· · ·,ω(d)2 )∈Ω2define Hti(ω2):=
Z t
0
(t−s)Hi−12dω(i)2 (s) Then from (12) and the definition ofτ0, it follows that
[Bτ+Hit−BτHi+fi(τ+t)−fi(τ)](ω) =hit(π1ω) +Hit(π2ω),t≥0. (13) Define
Ci:={(ω1,ω2)∈Ω1×Ω2: sup
t∈[0,T−τ0(ω1)]|hit(ω1) +Hti(ω2)|< ε}
for each 1≤i≤d. Sincehit+Hit is continuous process inΩ1×Ω2,CiisB1× B2measurable for each 1≤i≤d. Sinceπ1isFτΩd measurable andπ2is independent fromFτΩd, from Proposition A.2.5 of[4], for almost everyω∈Ωd we have
E[1∩d
i=1Ci(π1,π2)|FτΩd](ω) =φ(π1ω) (14) whereφ(ω1) = E1∩d
i=1Ci(ω1,π2). From (13) and the definitions of Ci andAτ,εi , it is clear that 1Ci(π1ω,π2ω) =1Aτ,ε
i (ω)for each 1≤i≤dandω∈Ωd. Therefore E[1∩d
i=1Aτ,εi |FτΩd](ω) =E[1∩d
i=1Ci(π1,π2)|FτΩd](ω) =φ(π1ω).
for eachω∈Ωd. In the following, we will show thatφ(ω1)>0 for eachω1∈Ω1. To see this, note that the random variables 1Ci(ω1,π1),i=1, 2,· · ·,dare independent for each fixedω1∈Ω1(this follows from the independence of the Brownian motionsπ(i)2 ω,i=1, 2,· · ·,dand the definitions ofHti). Therefore, we haveφ(ω1) =E1C1(ω1,π2)E1C2(ω1,π2)· · ·E1Cd(ω1,π2). Let
Bεi(ω1) ={ω∈Ωd:(ω1,πiω)∈Ci} for each 1 ≤ i ≤ n. Then, we have 1Ci(ω1,πi) =1Bε
i(ω1) for each 1≤ i ≤ d. This shows that φ(ω1) = P(B1ε)×P(B2ε)× · · · ×P(Bεd). Therefore, it is sufficient to show P(Biε)> 0 for each 1≤i≤d. Note that
Bεi(ω1) ={ω∈Ωd: sup
t∈[0,T−τ0(ω1)]|hit(ω1) + Zt
0
(t−s)Hi−12dπiω < ε}.
If τ0(ω1) = 0, then Bεi(ω1) = Ωd, so P(Bεi(ω1)) > 0. If τ0(ω1) > 0, then sinceπi(ω) is a Brownian motion andhit(ω1)is a deterministic continuous function for eachω1, from the results in[6,8,11], it follows thathit(ω1) +Rt
0(t−s)Hi−12dπiωhas full support in C[0,τ0(ω1)]. This, in turn, implies that Bεi(ω1)has positive probability for eachi. Therefore φ(ω1)> 0 for each ω1∈Ω1. Now, the result follows from (14).This completes the proof.
In the following Proposition we show a time change result on joint stickiness.
Proposition 4. Let Xt = (X1t,X2t,· · ·,Xdt)be a continuous process adapted to the filtrationF. Let Vt be a nondecreasing continuous process such that for each t, Vt isFstopping time. Then we have the following
(i) X is jointly sticky with respect to F if and only if for any stopping time τ ≤ T of F and any δ > 0, the stopping time τ1 = inf{t ≥ τ : |Xti−Xτi| ≥ δ, 1 ≤ i ≤ d} ∧T satisfies P(τ1=T|Fτ)>0a.s.
(ii) If X is jointly sticky with respect toF, then the time changed process Yt=XV
t∧T= (X1V
t∧T,X2V
t∧T,· · ·,XVd
t∧T) is jointly sticky with respect to the filtrationG= (Gt)t∈[0,T], whereGt=FVt∧T.
Proof. Proof of (i): Assume X is jointly sticky. To show P(τ1 = T|Fτ) > 0, we need to show P(A∩ {τ1=T})>0 for anyA∈ Fτ withP(A)>0. LetAτ,
δ 2
i ={supt∈[τ,T]|Xti−Xτi|< δ2}. Since X is jointly sticky, the eventA1=A∩(∩di=1Aτ,
δ 2
i )has positive probability. OnA1we clearly have τ1=T and so P(A∩ {τ1=T})>0. To show the other direction, letτ≤T be any stopping time andA∈ Fτ be any event withP(A)>0. For anyε >0, letAτ,εi ={supt∈[τ,T]|Xit−Xτi|< ε}for eachi. We need to show the eventA1=A∩(∩diAτ,εi )has positive probability. Letτ1=inf{t≥τ:
|Xit−Xτi| ≥ ε2, 1≤i≤d} ∧T. Since P(τ1=T|Fτ)>0 almost surely, the eventA∩ {τ1=T}has positive probability. By the definition ofτ1we haveA∩ {τ1=T} ⊂A1and therefore P(A1)>0.
This completes the proof.
Proof of (ii): Denote Yti = XVi
t∧T for each i. Let τ ≤ T be any stopping time of G. For any δ >0, let τ1=inf{t≥τ:|Yti−Yτi| ≥δ, 1≤i ≤d} ∧T. Due to part(i)above, we only need to showP(τ1= T|Gτ)>0 almost surely. This is equivalent to showing that for anyA∈ Gτ with
P(A)>0, P(A∩ {τ1= T})>0. To see this, letτ0=inf{t ≥τ:|Yti−Yτi| ≥ δ4, 1≤i ≤d} ∧T. LetτA=τ1A+T1Ω/AandτA0=τ01A+T1Ω/A, then both ofτAandτA0areGstopping times. Since τA< τA0 onA, there exists a deterministic numberk such thatA1={τA< k< τA0}has positive probability. Note thatA1⊂AandA1∈ Gk. Sinceτ0>k> τonA1, by the definition ofτ0, for each 1≤i≤dwe have
supt∈[τ,k]|Yti−Yτi| ≤δ
4 (15)
onA1. Letθ=inf{t≥Vk∧T:|Xit−XVi
k∧T| ≥δ4, 1≤i≤d} ∧T. SinceX is jointly sticky, the event A2=A1∩ {θ =T}has positive probability. Sinceθ=TonA2, for each 1≤i≤dwe have
sup
t∈[k,T]|XVi
t∧T−XVi
k∧T| ≤δ
4 (16)
onA2. From (15) and (16), for each 1≤i≤dwe have
supt∈[τ,T]|Yti+Yτi| ≤supt∈[τ,k]|Yti−Yτi|+ sup
t∈[k,T]|Yti−Yki|< δ. onA2. This shows thatτ1=T onA2. This completes the proof.
Example 3. Let BHt1,BHt2,· · ·,BHtd be a sequence of independent fractional Brownian motions with respect to the filtrationF= (Ft)t≥0. Letνt be any bounded time change. Then the process Xt = (BHν1
t ,BνH2
t ,· · ·,BHνd
t )is jointly sticky with respect to the filtration(Fνt)t∈[0,T]. To see this, let M be such thatνt ≤ M almost surely for all t ∈[0,T]. From Proposition 3, B = (BHt1,BtH2,· · ·,BHtd)is jointly sticky for the filtration(Ft)t∈[0,M]. Then, from part(ii)of Proposition (4), we conclude X is jointly sticky with respect to(Fνt)t∈[0,T].
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