(2021 年３月）抜 刷
メキシコにおける高齢化と高齢者の経済的保障
鍋 島 正次郎
࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿ㧗㱋㧗㱋⪅ࡢ⤒῭ⓗಖ㞀
㘠ᓥṇḟ㑻
࣮࣮࢟࣡ࢻ㸸 㧗㱋ࠊேཱྀືែࠊேཱྀ࣮࣎ࢼࢫࠊ⤒῭ᡂ㛗
1. ࡣࡌࡵ
2020 ᖺ⌧ᅾࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ㧗㱋⋡㸦⥲ேཱྀ༨ࡵࡿ 65 ṓ௨ୖேཱྀࡢẚ⋡㸧ࡣ 7.6%࡛ࠊ OECDຍ┕37ࣧᅜ୰ࡢ➨37࡛࠶ࡿ㸦࡞࠾ࠊ➨1ࡣ᪥ᮏࡢ28.4%࡛࠶ࡿ㸧㸦United Nations,
2019㸧ࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊࡲࡔ㧗㱋ࡀ῝้࡞≧ἣ࠶ࡿࡣゝ࠼࡞࠸ࡀࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࡇࢀ௨㝆ࠊ
㧗㱋ࡀᛴ⃭㐍⾜ࡍࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
㧗㱋⋡ࡀ7%ࡽ14%࡞ࡿࡲ࡛ࠊࣇࣛࣥࢫࡣ115ᖺࠊࢫࢫࡣ85ᖺࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ྜ⾗
ᅜࡣ69ᖺࡗࡓࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ᪥ᮏࡣ26ᖺᛴ㏿㧗㱋ࡀ㐍⾜ࡋࡓࡀࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ㧗㱋
ࡣࡉࡽᛴ⃭࡛ࠊᚋ22ᖺ࡛ྠࡌỈ‽㐩ࡍࡿࡔࢁ࠺᥎ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Aranco, N., et.al.,
2018㸧ࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ㛤Ⓨ㏵ୖᅜ࠾ࡅࡿࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ேཱྀࡢᖺ㱋ᵓ㐀ࡢᛴ㏿࡞ኚࡣࠊᚲࡎࡋࡶゎ
Ỵࡉࢀ࡞࠸ࠊゎỴࡍࡿࡲ࡛ከࡃࡢ㛫ࡀࡿ㸦Partida Bush, V., 2005㸧ࠋ
ࡑ࠺ࡋࡓ୰࡛ࠊ㧗㱋ࡣࠊሺሻ 㧗࠸㈋ᅔࡢⓎ⏕⋡ࠊሺሻ ᇳᣉ࡛⃭ࡋ࠸♫ⓗᖹ➼ࠊሺ ሻ ♫
ಖ㞀ࡢప࠸㐺⏝⠊ᅖࠊሺሻ 㧗㱋⪅ᢇ㣴ࡢࡓࡵࡢᐙ᪘ࢿࢵࢺ࣮࣡ࢡࡢຎഴྥ࡞ࡢ㈇ࡢഃ
㠃ࡼࡗ࡚≉ᚩ࡙ࡅࡽࢀࡿ♫ⓗ࣭⤒῭ⓗ࣭ᩥⓗࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋ࠺ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㧗 㱋ࡢ⬣ጾᑐฎࡍࡿࡣࠊ⌧ᅾࡇࡢᅜ࡛㐍⾜୰ࡢேཱྀືែୖࡢዲᶵ㸦ேཱྀ࣮࣎ࢼࢫ㸧ࢆ
⏝ࡋ࡚ࠊලయⓗ࡛୰㛗ᮇࡢ⾜ື᪩ᮇ╔ᡭࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸦Guzmán, José Miguel, 2002㸧ࠋ ࡑࢀࡣࠊᖺ㔠ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࠊ♫ⓗࢿࢵࢺ࣮࣡ࢡࠊࡑࡋ࡚ປാᕷሙࡢᨵၿࡀྍḞ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡉ
ࡽࠊᖹᆒవࡢఙ㛗ࡶ࡞ࡗ࡚ࠊ㧗㱋⪅ࡢ⏕άࡢ㉁ࢆಖドࡋࠊᨵၿࡍࡿࡓࡵࡣࠊ་⒪
ไᗘࡢᨵ㠉ࡶᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ
௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊᡓᚋࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࢆᴫほࡋࠊࡑࡢ୰࡛ྛᮇࡢேཱྀືែࢆ☜ㄆࡋࠊ⌧ᅾ
ॳҒ ࠅ໌ ˍ ॳҒ ࠅ໌ ˍ
ೖຌ ηϧΦϩ
νϨΠ οϨ
ϛϩφΪϩ αϫϱϑΠ
ϓΡϱϧϱχ φϩα
άϨεϡ ϟΫεα
ड़ఱʁ:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV
න2(&'ঀࠅ߶ྺԿིҒҒͳԾҒҒʤ೧ʥ
㐍⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿᛮࢃࢀࡿேཱྀ࣮࣎ࢼࢫᮇࠊࡑࢀࡽ2ࡘࡀࡢࡼ࠺┦㛵ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࢆ᳨ウ ࡍࡿࠋࡑࡢ࠺࠼࡛ࠊྠ㐍⾜୰ࡢ㧗㱋ࡢ୰࡛ࠊ㧗㱋⪅ࡢ⨨ࢀࡓ⤒῭ⓗ≧ἣࢆ⪃ᐹࡍࡿࠋ
2. ➨2ḟୡ⏺ᡓᚋࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡘ࠸࡚
ᅗ1ぢࡿࡼ࠺ࠊ➨ḟୡ⏺ᡓᚋࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊᐇ㉁GDPࡶ1ேᙜࡓࡾᐇ㉁GDP
ࡶᡂ㛗ࢆ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࡢ㧗ᡂ㛗ᆅᇦࡢᅜࠎẚࡿࠊࡑࡢᡂ㛗ࢫࣆ࣮ࢻ ࡣᚲࡎࡋࡶ㏿࠸ࡣ࠸࠼ࡎࠊ1960ᖺࡽ2019ᖺࡲ࡛ࡢࡰ60ᖺ㛫ࠊᐇ㉁GDPࡣࠊ୰ᅜ
࡛ࡣ90.1ಸࠊ㡑ᅜ࡛ࡣ63.4ಸࠊࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣ58.2ಸࠊࢱ࡛ࡣ28.9ಸᡂ㛗ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ
ࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣ8.9ಸ࡛ࠊ᪥ᮏࡢ7.8ಸࢆࢃࡎୖᅇࡿ㐣ࡂ࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡓࠊ1ே ᙜࡓࡾᐇ㉁GDPࡣࠊ୰ᅜ࡛ࡣ43.0ಸࠊ㡑ᅜ࡛ࡣ30.7ಸࠊࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣ16.8ಸࠊࢱ࡛
ࡣ11.4ಸᡂ㛗ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ᪥ᮏ࡛ࡶ5.7ಸ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣ2.6ಸ
㐣ࡂ࡞࠸ࠋࡋࡶࠊ᭱㏆ࡢ1990㹼2019ᖺࡢ1ேᙜࡓࡾGDPࡢᖺᡂ㛗⋡ࡣ1.1%࡛ࠊ1960㹼90 ᖺࡢ2.4%ࡼࡾࡶࡴࡋࢁῶ㏿ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦World Bank Group, 2020㸧ࠋ
ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢ㐜ࡉࡣࠊࡇࡢ㛫ࡢୡ⏺⤒῭ࡢ≧ἣ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ⤒῭ᨻ⟇࣭
⏘ᴗᨻ⟇ࡢ࣑ࢫ࣐ࢵࢳࡑࡢせ࡞ཎᅉࢆồࡵࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ୰༡⡿ᆅᇦࡢᅜࠎࡣࠊᮾ
ࢪࡢᅜࠎྠᵝࠊ➨2ḟୡ⏺ᡓᚋᕤᴗࢆᮏ᱁ࡉࡏࡓࠋ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡶࠊPRI㸦ไ ᗘⓗ㠉ඪ㸧ᨻᶒࡣࠊ⾗㐠ືࢆືဨࡋ࡚㞟⣙ⓗ࡞యไࢆ⠏ࡇ࠺ࡍࡿ࣏ࣆࣗࣜࢬ࣒ᨻ⟇ࡢ
୍⎔ࡋ࡚ࠊ㍺ධ௦᭰ᕤᴗᨻ⟇ࢆ᥎㐍ࡋࠊປാ⪅㝵⣭࠾ࡅࡿᨭᣢᇶ┙ࢆᙉᅛ࡞ࡶࡢࡋ
ࡼ࠺ࡋࡓࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊᮾࢪㅖᅜࡢᕤᴗࣔࢹࣝࡀᕷሙࢆඛ㐍ᅜᕷሙࡢ㍺ฟồ
ࡵࡿ㍺ฟᚿྥ࡛ࠊつᶍࡢ⤒῭ࡀ⏕⏘ຠ⋡ࢆࡁࡃ㧗ࡵࡓࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ20 ୡ⣖ධࡗ࡚௨㝆ࠊ
࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀࡣᛴቑࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡣ࠸࠼ࠊᅜෆ㟂せࡔࡅ࡛ࡣᕷሙつᶍࡣ⊃ᑠ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡓࡵࠊ ᅜෆ㟂せྥࡅᕤᴗᨻ⟇ࡣຠ⋡ⓗ࡞ᕤᴗ⏕⏘ࢆᐇ⌧࡛ࡁࡎࠊᾘ㈝⪅ࡣ㧗࡞〇ရࢆ㈙ࢃࡉࢀ
ࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓ㸦Ᏹబ⨾2009: 16㸧ࠋࡲࡓࠊ㍺ධ௦᭰ᕤᴗࢆ㐍ࡵࡿ࠶ࡓࡗ࡚࡞ࡉࢀࡓከ
㢠ࡢእ㈌ධࡀࠊ80 ᖺ௦ࡢ㔠ࡢᖜୖ᪼ࡼࡗ࡚㏉῭⬟࡞ࡾࠊIMF㸦ᅜ㝿㏻㈌ᇶ㔠㸧
ࡸୡ⏺㖟⾜࡞ࡽࡢ㔠⼥ᨭࡢୗࠊ㏉῭ィ⏬ࢆ㐍ࡵ࡚࠸ࡊࡿࢆᚓ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ㸦Ᏹబ⨾
ibid.: 22-23㸧ࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊࡑࢀࡽࡢᨭࢆཷࡅࡿࡇᘬࡁ࠼ࠊࡑࢀࡲ࡛ࡢಖㆤ㈠᫆⩏
ᇶ࡙ࡃ㍺ධ௦᭰ᕤᴗᨻ⟇ࡽࠊ㈠᫆ࡸ㔠⼥ࡢ⮬⏤࡞ࡢᕷሙ࣓࢝ࢽࢬ࣒ᇶ♏ࢆ⨨ࡃ᪂
⮬⏤⩏ⓗ࡞⤒῭ᨻ⟇ࡢ㌿ࢆవ࡞ࡃࡉࢀࡓ㸦Ᏹబ⨾ibid.: 30㸧ࠋ
1982ᖺⓎ⏕ࡋࡓ㔠⼥༴ᶵ௨㝆ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡣ㍺ධ௦᭰ᕤᴗᨻ⟇ࢆᇶᮏࡋࡓ⤒῭ࣔࢹࣝ
ࢆ⥔ᣢ࡛ࡁ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡾࠊ1983ᖺࡽࡢࢹ࣐ࣛࢻࣜᨻᶒࡣࠊ㍺ධチྍไࡽ㛵⛯⋡᧯స㌿ࡋࠊ 82ᖺࡽጞࡲࡗࡓ▼Ἔ౯᱁ࡢప㏞ᑐฎࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊ㠀▼Ἔ㒊㛛ࡢ㍺ฟࢆ⯆ࡋࠊእ㈨つไࡶ
⦆ࡍࡿ࡞ࡢ⮬⏤ᨻ⟇㌿ࡋࡼ࠺ࡋࡓࠋ86ᖺࡢGATTຍ┕ࡣࠊရ┠ᩘ࣮࣋ࢫ࡛
92%ࡀ㍺ධチྍせ࡞ࡾࠊ㛵⛯⋡ࡶ86ᖺⅬࡢᖹᆒ㛵⛯⋡22.6%ࡀࠊ88ᖺࡣ9.9%ࡲ࡛
ᘬࡁୗࡆࡽࢀࡓࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞⤒῭ࣔࢹࣝࡢ㌿ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊᕤᴗ〇ရࡢ㍺ฟࡀቑຍࡋࠊ88ᖺࡢ
㍺ฟయ༨ࡵࡿᕤᴗ〇ရࡢྜࡣ56%࡞ࡗࡓࠋ1988ᖺⓎ㊊ࡋࡓࢧ࣮ࣜࢼࢫᨻᶒࡣࠊ91 ᖺࢳࣜ⮬⏤㈠᫆༠ᐃࢆ⥾⤖ࡋࠊ94ᖺNAFTAᢈࠊAPECࡸOECDࡢຍ┕ࢆᐇ⌧ࡉ ࡏࡓࠊእ㈨ἲࡶᨵṇࡋࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢእᅜᢞ㈨ࡢつไࡽࠊእᅜᢞ㈨ࡢಁ㐍▮⥅ࡂ᪩
⤒῭ࣔࢹࣝࢆ㌿ࡋࡓ㸦ᇼᆏ⦅1996; 60-62㸧ࠋ
ࡋࡋࠊୖ࡛ࡶ☜ㄆࡋࡓࡼ࠺ࠊ1980ᖺ௦ධࡗ࡚ࡽࡢ᪂⮬⏤⩏⤒῭ᨵ㠉ࡣ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ
ࠊᮾࢪㅖᅜࡣࡶࡕࢁࢇࡢࡇࠊྠᵝࡢᨵ㠉ࢆᐇࡋࡓࡢࣛࢸ࣓ࣥࣜ࢝ㅖᅜẚ
࡚ࡶప࠸⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡋࡶࡓࡽࡉ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ࡞ࡐ࡞ࡽࠊ⤒῭⮬⏤ࡢ౽┈ࢆாཷࡍࡿࡢࡀࠊ
㒊ᅜቃᆅᇦࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᅜ㝿⤒῭ࡢ⤫ྜࡢ᮲௳ࢆഛ࠼ࡓᆅᇦࡸࠊ㈠᫆⮬⏤࡛Ᏻ౯࡞ࡗࡓ᪂ ᢏ⾡ࢆᑟධࡋ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ㧗ࡵࡓᴗ࡞ࠊ୍㒊ࡢᆅᇦࡸ⤒῭㒊㛛࠾ࡼࡧᴗ㝈ࡽࢀࠊ⭾࡞
ࣥࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ㒊㛛ࠊࣥࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝᑵᴗ⪅ࡢᏑᅾࡸᶒጾ⩏యไࡢ㑇ไࡼࡗ࡚ࠊࡑࡢ౽
┈ࡀᗈࡃ⤒῭⯡ཬࢇ࡛࠸࡞࠸ࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾࠸࡚⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࢆຍ㏿ࡉࡏࡿࡓࡵ
ࡣࠊࣥࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝࡢ㛫Ꮡᅾࡍࡿቨࢆྲྀࡾᡶ࠸ࠊ㠀⇍⦎ປാ⪅ࡢࢫ࢟ࣝࢆ
ྥୖࡉࡏࠊࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ࡞㞠⏝ᑵࡅࡿࡼ࠺ࡍࡿྠࠊᴗࡢഃࡶ᪂ᢏ⾡ࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ࡚⏕
⏘ᛶࢆୖࡆࠊࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ࡞㞠⏝ࢆࡼࡾከࡃฟࡍࡿࡇࡀྍḞ࡛࠶ࡿ㸦ᫍ㔝2017: 16㸧ࠋ ᅗ2ࡣࠊ1965㹼2019ᖺࡢᮇ㛫ࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ〇㐀ᴗ㸦ᘓタᴗࢆྵࡴ㸧ࡢຍ౯್ࡢᐇ㉁㢠 㸦⡿ࢻࣝࠊ2010 ᖺᇶ‽㸧ࡢ᥎⛣ࢆᐇ⥺࡛♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊྑ⫪ୖࡀࡾቑຍ㸦5.1ಸ㸧ࡋ࡚࠸
ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊࡇࡢᮇ㛫ࡢ〇㐀ᴗࡢຍ౯್㢠ࡣࠊ୰ᅜ࡛ࡣ195.0 ಸࠊ㡑ᅜ࡛ࡣ 78.8ಸࠊࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣ44.9ಸࠊࢱ࡛ࡣ27.9ಸቑຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࢆ⪃៖ࡍࢀࡤࠊ࣓࢟
ࢩࢥࡢ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢ⦆៏ࡉࡣ㢧ⴭ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊྠᅗࡣࠊ1991㹼2019ᖺࡢᮇ㛫ࡢຍ౯್⏕
⏘ᛶ㸦ປാ⪅1ேᙜࡓࡾࡢຍ౯್㢠㸧ࡢ᥎⛣ࢆ◚⥺࡛♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊࡇࡢᮇ㛫ᐇ㉁㢠ࡣ
26.6%ῶᑡࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࢀᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ୰ᅜ࡛ࡣ11.0 ಸࠊ㡑ᅜ࡛ࡣ3.7ಸࠊࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣ
4.3ಸࠊࢱ࡛ࡶ1.2ಸᡂ㛗ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡽࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ〇㐀ᴗᴗ࡛ࡣࠊຠ⋡ᛶࡸ⏕⏘
ᛶࡢྥୖࡀ❧ࡕ㐜ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡿ㸦World Bank Group, ibid.㸧ࠋ
ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓ୰࡛ࠊ2018ᖺ12᭶ᑵ௵ࡋࡓᕥὴࡢࣟ࣌ࢫ࣭࢜ࣈࣛࢻ࣮ࣝ⤫㡿ࡣࠊ19ୡ⣖ึ
ࡵࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ⊂❧ࠊ࣋ࢽ࣮ࢺ࣭ࣇࣞࢫ⤫㡿ࡼࡿ19ୡ⣖༙ࡤࡢ⮬⏤⩏ᨵ㠉࠾ࡼࡧ1910 ᖺጞࡲࡗࡓ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ㠉⥆ࡃࠕ➨4ࡢኚ㠉ࠖࢆᥖࡆ࡚ࠊ80ᖺ௦௨㝆ࡢ᪂⮬⏤⩏ᨵ㠉
ࡽఏ⤫ⓗ࡞ேẸ⩏ⓗࡶࡋࡃࡣ♫⩏ⓗᨻ⟇ࡢ᪉㔪㌿ࢆ┠ᣦࡍࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡞⟇ࢆ⾜ࡗ
࡚࠸ࡿࠋ࠼ࡤࠊ㒊ᅜቃᆅᇦ࡛ࡣࠊ2019ᖺ1᭶᭱ప㈤㔠ࡢ2ಸࡢᘬࡁୖࡆἲே⛯ᘬ ࡁୗࡆࡀ⾜ࢃࢀࠊᅜ࡛ࡶ᭱ప㈤㔠ࢆ20%ᘬࡁୖࡆ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ௵ᮇ୰ᅜ࡛᭱ప㈤㔠ࢆ2ಸ
ࡍࡿබ⣙ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊ⌧ᐇࡣࠊබⓗ㈨㔠㢗ࡗࡓᅜႠ▼Ἔබ♫PEMEXᨵ㠉
ᑐࡍࡿᅜ㝿♫ࡽࡢᠱᛕࠊࢺࣛࣥࣉ⤫㡿ࡢⓎゝࡸ⡿୰㈠᫆ᡓதࡢᙳ㡪࡞ࡀ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ண
ࢆᘬࡁୗࡆࠊ2019ᖺ11᭶ࡢIMFࡼࡿ᭱᪂ண ࡛ࡣ0%Ⓨ⾲ࡉࢀࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ⤒῭ࡢࢮ
ࣟᡂ㛗ࡀỴᐃⓗ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ෆᒣ2020: 33-35㸧ࠋ
3. 20ୡ⣖௨㝆ࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀືែ
࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀࡣࠊ19ୡ⣖ึ㢌ࡽ⌧ᅾࡢ21ୡ⣖ึ㢌ࡲ࡛ࡢ⣙200ᖺ㛫ࠊ㉳అࢇࡔ ኚࢆࡓࡗ࡚ࡁࡓࠋࡲࡎࠊ1810ᖺࡽ1910ᖺࡲ࡛ࡢ100ᖺ㛫ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀࡣ610
ேࡽ1,510ே2.5ಸࡋቑ࠼࡞ࡗࡓ୍᪉ࠊ1910ᖺࡽ2000ᖺࡲ࡛ࡢ90ᖺ㛫ࠊ
1,510ேࡽ9,740ே6ಸ௨ୖቑ࠼ࡓࠋ1810ᖺࡽࡢ100ᖺ㛫ࡢ㠀ᖖ㐜࠸࣮࣌ࢫ
ࡢேཱྀᡂ㛗ࢆࠊᙜࡢ▱㆑ேࡓࡕࡣࠊ⊂❧ᡓதࠊෆᡓࠊ࢝ࢫࢱᡓதࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ྜ⾗ᅜࡢ␎ࠊ
ࣇࣛࣥࢫࡢᡓத⤖ࡧ࠸ࡓࡶࡢ⪃࠼࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࢀຍ࠼࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀࡣࠊኳ↛
①ࠊపᆅ࠾ࡅࡿ㯤⇕ࠊࢳࣇࢫࠊࡑࡋ࡚ࠊࡑࡢᚋࡢࢥࣞࣛ࠸ࡗࡓ⧞ࡾ㏉ࡉࢀࡿࡼࡗ
࡚Ⲩᗫࡋࡓࠋࡋࡋࠊ20ୡ⣖ࡢ᭱ึࡢᩘ༑ᖺࡢ㛫ࠊ500ே㏆࠸ேࠎࡀࡍ࡛✀①ࢆཷࡅ
࡚࠾ࡾࠊࢳࣇࢫࡼࡗ࡚⏕ࡌࡿṚࡶῶᑡࡋࡓ᥎ᐃࡉࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊᢠ⏕≀㉁ࡢⓎぢ࡞ࠊྠ
ᮇࡢ་⒪ࡣࡁ࡞๓㐍ࢆ㐩ᡂࡋࡓࠋ1910ᖺࡽࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ㠉⥆ࡃ10ᖺ㛫ࡣࠊᡓ
ࡸࠕࢫ࣌ࣥ㢼㑧ࠖࡢὶ⾜ࡼࡾከࡃࡢṚ⪅ࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࡓࡶࡢࡢࠊࡑࡢᚋࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀࡣ ᅇࡋ࡚ࠊᡂ㛗ࡢຍ㏿ࢆ㛤ጞࡋࡓࠋ1930ᖺࡢ1,660ேࡽ1970ᖺࡢ4,820ேࠊ࣓࢟
ࢩࢥேཱྀࡣࢃࡎ40ᖺࡢ࠶࠸ࡔࡰ3ಸ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓྠࠊฟ⏕ᖹᆒవࡶఙࡧࠊ 1970ᖺ⏨ᛶ60ṓࠊዪᛶ64ṓ࡞ࡾࠊ40ᖺ㛫࡛⏨ᛶࡣ24ᖺࠊዪᛶࡣ26.5ᖺఙ㛗ࡋࡓ㸦Rabell Romero, Cecilia, 2010㸧ࠋ
20ୡ⣖࠾ࡅࡿ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀືែࡣࠊୖグࡢࡼ࠺࡞་⒪ᢏ⾡ࡢ㐍Ṍࡼࡿᛴ⃭࡞Ṛஸ⋡
ࡢపୗᖹᆒవࡢఙ㛗క࠺ேཱྀࡢᛴᡂ㛗ࠊࡑࢀ㐜ࢀ࡚㛤ጞࡋࡓฟ⏕⋡ࡢᛴⴠࡼࡿ
ேཱྀᡂ㛗ࡢῶ㏿ࡼࡗ࡚≉ᚩ࡙ࡅࡽࢀࡿࠋ1970ᖺ㡭ࠊฟ⏕⋡ࡢᣢ⥆ⓗ࡞పୗࡀጞࡲࡗࡓࠋࡑ ࡢᚋࠊࢃࡎ30ᖺ࡛ࠊዪᛶ1ே࠶ࡓࡾࡢᏊ౪ࡢᖹᆒᩘ㸦ྜィ≉Ṧฟ⏕⋡㸧ࡣࠊ6.7ேࡽ2.7
ேపୗࡋࡓ㸦Rabell Romero, Cecilia, ibid.㸧ࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᑡᏊഴྥࡣࠊࡇࡢᚋࡶ㐍ࡴࡶࡢ
ணࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊᅜ㐃ࡢࠕୡ⏺ேཱྀ᥎ィࠖࡢ୰᥎ィࡼࡿࠊ2020ᖺࡢྜィ≉Ṧฟ⏕⋡ࡣ 2.03⨨ࡁ࠼Ỉ‽ࢆୗᅇࡾࠊ2040ᖺࡣ1.76᥎ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦United Nations, ibid.㸧ࠋ
࡞࠾ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀືែ࠾࠸࡚ࠊᅜ㝿⛣ືࡼࡿ⣧ᦆኻࡀ1960ᖺ௨㝆࡞ࡗ࡚ึࡵ࡚
㔜せ࡞ࡗࡓࡀࠊ㸦࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡽ࣓ࣜ࢝ྜ⾗ᅜࡢ㸧㉺ቃ⛣ືࡢ⣧⛣ື⋡ࡣ2000ᖺࡢ 0.39%ࡽ2050ᖺࡣ0.29%ῶᑡࡍࡿࡶࡋࢀ࡞࠸᥎ᐃࡉࢀࡿ㸦Partida Bush, V., 2005㸧ࠋ
ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢேཱྀືែࡣࠊࡇࡢᅜࡀ1930ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊேཱྀ㌿ࡢࣉࣟࢭࢫධࡗࡓ ࡇࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ1970 ᖺ㡭ࡽࡢฟ⏕⋡ࡢᛴⴠࡀࠊᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡ࡢୗⴠ㸦ࡑࡋ࡚ᙜ↛ࠊ
⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀẚ⋡ࡢୖ᪼㸧ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࡓࠋᐇ㝿ࠊࠕୡ⏺ேཱྀ᥎ィ࡛ࠖࡶࠊᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡ࡣ1969 ᖺࡽᣢ⥆ⓗୗⴠࡋጞࡵࠊࡇࢀࡣ୰᥎ィࡼࢀࡤ2030ᖺࡲ࡛⥆ࡃ᥎ᐃࡉࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊ 2021ᖺࡽ2039ᖺࡲ࡛ࡣࠊ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀࡀᚑᒓேཱྀࡢ2ಸ௨ୖ࡞ࡿᮇࡀ⥆ࡃ᥎ᐃࡉ
ࢀࡿ㸦United Nations, ibid.㸧ࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᾘ㈝⪅ࡢቑຍࢆୖᅇࡿ⏕⏘⪅ࡢቑຍࡣࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫
1ேᙜࡓࡾࡢྍฎศᡤᚓࡢቑຍࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࠊ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢྍ⬟ᛶࢆቑࡉࡏࡿࠋ
1960ᖺ௦ࡽ1990ᖺ௦ࡅ࡚ࠊᮾࢪࡢᅜࠎࡣࠊࠕࢪࡢ⤒῭ⓗወ㊧ࠖࡤࢀࡿ
ᛴ⃭࡞⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࢆ㐩ᡂࡋࡓࡀࠊࡇࢀࡣୖ㏙ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ฟ⏕⋡ࡢపୗ࠾ࡼࡧ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀẚ⋡ࡢ
ୖ᪼㌶ࢆ୍ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡋࡋࠊࡑࡢࡼ࠺࡞⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡣேཱྀᏛⓗ᮲௳ࡢᚲ↛ⓗ࡞ᖐ⤖࡛ࡣ
࡞ࡃࠊࡴࡋࢁ≉ᐃࡢேཱྀືែࡣࠕᶵࡢ❆ࠖࡋ࡚⤒῭ᡂ㛗᭷స⏝ࡋ࠺ࡿ⪃࠼ࡿ
ࡁ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᐇ㝿ࠊࢪࡢ⤒῭ⓗወ㊧ࡣࠊሺሻ ㈈ᨻⓗಖᏲⓗ࡛ࠊ㍺ฟᚿྥⓗ࡞⤒῭ᨻ⟇ࠊ ሺሻ ༑ศ࡞ᩍ⫱ࢆཷࡅࡓࠊ⇍⦎ࡢࠊຮ࡞ປാຊࠊሺ ሻ ዲㄪ࡞ୡ⏺⤒῭ࠊሺሻ 㠉᪂ⓗ࡛ࠊࢲ
ࢼ࣑ࢵࢡ࡞⏘ᴗ㒊㛛ࠊሺሻ 㔜せ㒊㛛ࡢⓎᒎࢆᨭࡍࡿ⏘ᴗᨻ⟇ࠊሺሻ ປാ⪅1ேᙜࡾࡢᛴ⃭࡞
㈨ᮏቑຍᑟࡃ㧗࠸㈓⋡ᢞ㈨⋡࡞ࡢせᅉᖐࡏࡽࢀࠊᙜࡢேཱྀᏛⓗ㊅ໃࡀࠊࡑࢀࡽ
ࡢせせᅉࡢࡣࡓࡽࡁࢆ⫼ᚋࡽᨭ࠼ࡓゎ㔘ࡉࢀࡿ㸦Mason, A., 1997㸧ࠋ
ࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾࠸࡚ࡶୖグࡢࡼ࠺࡞᮲௳ࢆ᪩ᛴᩚഛࡋ࡞࠸㝈ࡾࠊ⤯ዲࡢᶵ㸦ே
ཱྀ࣮࣎ࢼࢫ㸧ࢆ↓Ⅽᾉ㈝ࡋࠊࡓࡔ㧗㱋ࡀ㐍⾜ࡋ࡚ࠊࠕேཱྀ࣮࢜ࢼࢫࠖࡢࡳࢆ⿕ࡿࡇ࡞ࡗ
࡚ࡋࡲ࠸ࡡ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊ࠸ࡃࡘࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ⤒῭ᣦᶆࡶཧ⪃ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ᮶ ࡓࡿேཱྀࡢ㧗㱋ࡢഛ࠼ࡀࢀᩚࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࢆ⪃ᐹࡋࡓ࠸ࠋ
4. ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿேཱྀ࣮࣎ࢼࢫ
ேཱྀ㌿ㄽ࡛ࡣࠊṚஸ⋡㸦ࡃஙᗂඣṚஸ⋡㸧ࡢᛴⴠ⥆࠸࡚⏕ࡌࡿฟ⏕⋡ࡢపୗࡣࠊ
┦ᑐⓗ࡞ேཱྀᡂ㛗ࡀ⤊ࡋࡓᚋࠊ20ᖺ⤒ࡗ࡚ࡽ⤒῭ⓗάືⓗ࡞ேཱྀࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࡢ࡛ࠊ
⤒῭ᡂ㛗㐜ຠᛶࡢࣉࣛࢫࡢࣥࣃࢡࢺࢆࡶࡘࡉࢀࡿ㸦Williamson, J.G., 2013㸧ࠋࡋࡋ࡞
ࡀࡽࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣ1970ᖺࡈࢁࡽฟ⏕⋡ࡀᣢ⥆ⓗ࡞పୗᒁ㠃ධࡗࡓࡀࠊୖ㏙ࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ
᭱㏆ࡢ1990㹼2019ᖺࡢ1ேᙜࡓࡾGDPࡢᖺᡂ㛗⋡1.1%ࡣࠊ1960㹼90ᖺࡢ2.4%ࡼࡾࡶࡴࡋ
ࢁపୗࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦World Bank Group, ibid.㸧ࠋ
ࡇࢀࡣࠊ➨2⠇࡛㏙ࡓࡼ࠺࡞࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿ⤒῭ᨻ⟇࣭⏘ᴗᨻ⟇ࡢ㏞㉮ࡀࡁࡃ
ࢃࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡣゝ࠺ࡲ࡛ࡶ࡞࠸ࡀࠊࡑࢀຍ࠼࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿฟ⏕⋡ࡢపୗࢫࣆ࣮
ࢻࡢ㐜ࡉࠊࡍ࡞ࢃࡕᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡ࡢపୗࢫࣆ࣮ࢻࡢ㐜ࡉࡶ1ࡘࡢせᅉ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽ
ࢀࡿࠋ࠼ࡤࠊ1980ᖺ௦௨㝆ࠊᛴ㏿࡞⤒῭Ⓨᒎࢆ㐙ࡆࡓࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣࠊᅗ3ぢࡿࡼ࠺
1950㹼55ᖺᮇ6.61㠀ᖖ㧗ࡗࡓྜィ≉Ṧฟ⏕⋡ࡀࠊ1975㹼80ᖺᮇࡣ⨨ࡁ࠼Ỉ
‽ࢆࡁࡃୗᅇࡿ1.84ࡲ࡛ᛴⴠࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࢀᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊ1950㹼55ᖺᮇ
6.78ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝྠᵝ㧗ࡗࡓྜィ≉Ṧฟ⏕⋡ࡣࠊ2015㹼20ᖺᮇࡢⅬ࡛ࡶࡲࡔ2.14
⨨ࡁ࠼Ỉ‽ྠ⛬ᗘ࡛ࠊ2030㹼35ᖺᮇ࡞ࡗ࡚ࡸࡗ1.85㸦୰᥎ィ㸧ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝࡢ 1975㹼80ᖺᮇྠỈ‽࡞ࡿ᥎ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦United Nations, ibid.㸧ࠋ
࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾࠸࡚ྜィ≉Ṧฟ⏕⋡ࡀ㧗࠸Ỉ‽࡛⥔ᣢࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡢࡣࠊዪᛶࡢึ፧ᖺ㱋ࡢప ࡉࡶࡑࡢ୍ᅉ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࡣ☜࡛࠶ࡿࠋ20㹼24ṓࡢዪᛶࡢ࠺ࡕࠊ18ṓࡲ࡛᭱ึࡢ⤖፧ࢆࡋ ࡓ⪅ࡢྜࡣࠊ1987ᖺ27.6%ࠊ2006ᖺ22.7%ࠊ2015ᖺ26.1%ࠊࡘ࠸᭱㏆࡞ࡗ࡚ࡶⱝ࠸ዪ ᛶࡢ4㹼5ே1ேࡀ10௦࡛⤖፧ࢆ⤒㦂ࡋࡓࡇࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ࡞ࡿ㸦World Bank Group, ibid.㸧ࠋ
⤖፧ᖺ㱋ࡀ᪩࠸ࠊᏊ౪ࡢᩘࡶከࡃ࡞ࡾࡸࡍ࠸ࡇࢆ⪃࠼ࢀࡤࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢྜィ≉Ṧฟ⏕
⋡ࡢῶᑡࢫࣆ࣮ࢻࡀࠊ1980ᖺ௦ᚋ༙௨㝆ࠊࡁࢃࡵ࡚⦆៏࡛࠶ࡿࡇࡀ⣡ᚓ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ
ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᖺᑡேཱྀࡢῶᑡࢫࣆ࣮ࢻࡢ㐜ࡉࡣࠊᅗ4ࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀẚ⋡ࡢቑຍࢫ
ࣆ࣮ࢻࡢ㐜ࡉ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝࡢ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀẚ⋡ࡣࠊ1963ᖺ53.3%ᗏࢆᡴࡗ࡚
ࡽᛴ㏿ୖ᪼ࡋࠊ2011 ᖺࡣ 78.6%㐩ࡋࠊࡑࡢᚋࡣ⌧ᅾࡲ࡛⦆ࡸῶᑡࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊ
ᚋࡣᛴῶࡋ࡚ࡺࡃࡶࡢ᥎ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ᪉ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊ1968ᖺࡢ49.7%ࡽ㠀ᖖ
⦆៏ୖ᪼ࡋጞࡵࡓࡀࠊࡇࡢẚ⋡ࡀ᭱㐩ࡍࡿ2030ᖺ࡛ࡶ67.3%࡛ࠊ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀࡀᚑ ᒓேཱྀࡢ2ಸࢆࢃࡎୖᅇࡿ㐣ࡂ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞⏕⏘ேཱྀẚ⋡ࡢቑຍࢫࣆ࣮
ࢻࡢ㐜ࡉࡑࡢẚ⋡ࡢ┦ᑐⓗ࡞పࡉࡣࠊᾘ㈝⪅ᑐࡍࡿ⏕⏘⪅ࡢẚ⋡ࡢቑຍࢫࣆ࣮ࢻࡢ㐜ࡉ
ࢆពࡋࠊ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢ㐜ࡉᡂ㛗ຊࡢపࡉࡢ୍ᅉ࡞ࡗࡓᛮࢃࢀࡿ㸦United Nations, ibid.㸧ࠋ
ḟࠊ୰༡⡿ㅖᅜ࡛ࡣࠊᅜෆᐇ㉁㔠ࡀపࡃࠊࡁࡣ࣐ࢼࢫ㔠࡞ࡿࡇࡶ࠶ࡗࡓ ࡓࡵࠊᅜෆ࡛㡸㔠ࡍࡿࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈஈࡋࡃࠊᐩ⿱ᒙࡣᅜෆ࡛ࡢື⏘㉎ධࡸࠊᾏእࡢ㖟
⾜ࡢ㡸㔠ࡸᾏእ࡛ࡢື⏘㉎ධࡼࡗ࡚㈨⏘౯್㜵⾨ࢆᅗࡾࠊ⥲ࡌ࡚㈓⋡ࡀప࠸ࡉࢀ
ࡿ㸦Ᏹబ⨾ibid.: 20㸧ࠋGDP༨ࡵࡿ⥲㈓ࡢẚ⋡ࡢ᥎⛣ࢆぢࡿ㸦ᅗ5㸧ࠊࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝ
ࡣࠊ1970ᖺ௦௨㝆᪥ࡲ࡛40㹼50%ࡢ㧗࠸㈓⋡ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊ
ྠᮇࡰ୍ᐃࡋ࡚ 20%ྎࡲࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡑࢀࢆୗᅇࡿᖺᗘࡶ࠶ࡿࠋୖ㏙ࡢ Mason 㸦1997㸧ࡶᣦࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺ࠊ㧗࠸㈓⋡ࡀປാ⪅1ேᙜࡾࡢᛴ⃭࡞㈨ᮏቑຍᑟࡃ୍ᅉ
⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡓࡵࠊప࠸㈓⋡ࡣ㏫ప࠸⏕⏘ᛶࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࡇ࡞ࡿࠋ
ࡋࡋࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿ㈓⋡ࡢపࡉࡣࠊࡑࡢࡼ࠺࡞࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭ⓗ࡞せᅉࡼࡗ࡚ࡔࡅ
࡛࡞ࡃࠊᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡ࡢపୗࢫࣆ࣮ࢻ㸦ྠࡌࡇࡔࡀࠊ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋ேཱྀࡢቑຍࢫࣆ࣮ࢻ㸧ࡢ㐜 ࡉࡶࡁࡃࢃࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ1960ᖺ௨㝆ࡢGDP༨ࡵࡿẸ㛫᭱⤊ᾘ㈝ᨭฟࡢ
ྜࢆぢࡿࠊࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣ90%ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ㠀ᖖ㧗࠸Ỉ‽ࡽᛴ㏿పୗࡋ࡚ࡺࡁࠊ㏆
ᖺࡣ30%ྎࡲ࡛࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣ80ᖺ௦୍60%ྎࢆࢃࡎୗ
ᅇࡿỈ‽࡞ࡗࡓࡇࢆ㝖ࡃࠊ୍㈏ࡋ࡚60㹼70%ྎࢆ⥔ᣢࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣ㧗࠸ᚑᒓேཱྀ
ẚ⋡ࡢୗ࡛ࡣࠊᐙィࡶ㈓ࢆࡍࡿవ⿱ࡀ࡞࠸≧ែࡀ࠸ࡲࡔ⥆࠸࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡀ㛵ಀࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ
࠺ᛮࢃࢀࡿ㸦World Bank Group, ibid.㸧ࠋ
ࡲࡓࠊ㔞ࡢ⇍⦎ࡢປാຊࡀ♫౪⤥ࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵࡣࠊᩍ⫱ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡀᩚഛࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ
㉁ⓗࡶ༑ศ࡞ᩍ⫱ࡀᥦ౪ࡉࢀࡿࡇࡀྍḞ࡛࠶ࡾࠊᐙィࡢഃࡶᏊ౪ࡓࡕࡢᩍ⫱ࡢᢞ㈨
ࢆ⾜࠺ࡔࡅࡢ⤒῭ⓗవ⿱ពᚿࡀ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡎ⾲2ࡼࡿࠊᑡ࡞ࡃࡶᚋᮇ୰
➼ᩍ⫱㸦᪥ᮏ࡛ゝ࠼ࡤࠊ㧗➼Ꮫᰯࡢᩍ⫱ㄢ⛬ᙜࡓࡿ㸧ࢆಟࡋࡓ25ṓ௨ୖࡢ⪅ࡢྜࡣࠊ ࢩ࣏࣮࡛ࣥ࢞ࣝࡣࠊ1990ᖺࡣࡲࡔ⏨ዪࡶ㠀ᖖప࠸Ỉ‽ࡔࡗࡓࡀࠊ2000ᖺ௦ධࡗ࡚
ᛴఙࡋࠊ2018ᖺ࡛ࡣ⏨ዪࡶ7ࢆ㉸࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋ᪉ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊ1990ᖺࡢⅬ࡛ࡣ ࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝࡼࡾࡶ㧗࠸Ỉ‽ࡔࡗࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢᚋࡢྜࡢቑຍࡣࡁࢃࡵ࡚⦆ࡸ࡛ࠊ2018ᖺࡢ
Ⅼ࡛ࡶ⏨ዪࡶ3ྎ㐣ࡂ࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡓࠊᏛࡢᩍ⫱ㄢ⛬ࡢಟ⪅㛵ࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ࣓࢟ࢩ ࢥࡢ25ṓ௨ୖࡢேཱྀ༨ࡵࡿᏛ༞ᴗ⪅ࡢẚ⋡ࡣࠊࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝࡢ༙ศ࡛࠶ࡿ㸦⾲3ཧ
↷㸧ࠋ୍ᐃ௨ୖࡢᢏ⬟▱㆑ࢆ᭷ࡍࡿ⏕⏘ⓗ࡞ປാຊ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵࡣࠊᑡ࡞ࡃࡶ୰➼ᩍ⫱ㄢ
⛬ࢆಟࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡀᮃࡲࢀࡿࡍࡿࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢປാ⪅ࡢᩍ⫱ࡢ㉁ࢆࡵࡄࡿ⌧≧ࡣࠊ ࡁࢃࡵ࡚ᚰチ࡞࠸ࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࡀࢃࡿࠋ
5. ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ࡢேཱྀ㧗㱋ࡢഛ࠼
௨ୖぢࡓࡼ࠺ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ࡣ⌧ᅾࡲࡉ⤒῭ᡂ㛗᭷࡞ேཱྀᏛⓗ≧ἣࢆ㏄࠼࡚࠸
ࡿࡶࢃࡽࡎࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢࡇࢁࠊᚲࡎࡋࡶࡑࡢᶵࢆୖᡭࡃᤊ࠼࡚ࡣ࠸࡞࠸ࡼ࠺ᛮ
ࢃࢀࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊࡑࡢࡼ࠺࡞୰࡛ࡶேཱྀࡢ㧗㱋ࡣࠊ➨1⠇࡛ࡶ㏙ࡓࡼ࠺ࠊ㐣ཤࢆ
ぢ࡞࠸ࢫࣆ࣮ࢻ࡛ᛴ㏿㐍ࢇ࡛ࡺࡃࡶࡢ᥎ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ࡀ᮶ࡓ
ࡿ㧗㱋ࡢഛ࠼ࢆࢀࡔࡅᣢࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࢆࠊሺሻ ᖺ㔠ไᗘࠊሺሻ ᐙ᪘ࢆ୰ᚰࡋࡓᢇ㣴ࢩ ࢫࢸ࣒ࠊሺ ሻ ປാᕷሙࡢ㧗㱋⪅ࡢࢡࢭࢫ࠸࠺3ࡘࡢഃ㠃ࡽ᳨ウࡋࡓ࠸ࠋ
(a) ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢᖺ㔠ࢩࢫࢸ࣒
࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡣఏ⤫ⓗࠊࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ㒊㛛ᑐࡍࡿ♫ಖ㞀ࠊࣥࣇ࢛࣮࣐࡛ࣝࠊࡼࡾ⬤ᙅ
࡞㒊㛛ᑐࡍࡿ♫ⓗᨭ࠸࠺ᖹ⾜ⓗ࡞2ࡘࡢࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࢆᣢࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ㒊㛛
ᙜࡓࡿປാ⪅ࡣࠊ㐃㑥බົဨࠊ㌷ேࠊ⤌ྜ⤌⧊ࡉࢀࡓ㐃㑥ᩍဨࠊ㸦▼Ἔࠊ㕲㗰ࠊ㟁ຊ࠸࠺㸧
⤒῭ࡢᡓ␎ⓗ࡞3㒊㛛ࡢປാ⪅࠸ࡗࡓ᪤ᚓᶒࡢࣆ࣑ࣛࢵࢻࢆᵓᡂࡍࡿேࠎຍ࠼࡚ࠊ᪤ᚓ ᶒ⪅ࡓࡕࡢࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᵓ㐀ࡢᗏ㎶ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ಖ㞀බ♫㸦IMSS㸧ຍධࡋࡓẸ㛫⿕㞠⏝
⪅ࡸປാ⪅ࡀ⨨ࡅࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࣥࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ㒊㛛ࡣࠊࡇࡢࣆ࣑ࣛࢵࢻࡢእഃ࠸ࡿ
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ड़ఱʁ:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV ୱҒʁ
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εϱΪϛʖϩ
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ड़ఱʁ:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV ୱҒʁ
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εϱΪϛʖϩ
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ࡍ࡚ࡢேࠎࡀᒓࡋࠊ㎰ᮧປാ⪅ࠊࣥࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ㒊㛛ࡸୡᖏෆࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࡢ㠀㈤㔠ປാ⪅ࠊ
Ᏻᐃ࡞ປാ᮲௳࠶ࡿ㈤㔠ປാ⪅ࠊ⮬Ⴀປാ⪅ࠊ㞽⣽⮬Ⴀᴗ⪅࡞ࡀࡑࢀ࠶ࡓࡿࠋࡑ࠺
ࡋࡓ୰࡛ࠊ1997ᖺ2007ᖺ⾜ࢃࢀࡓᖺ㔠ᨵ㠉ࡣࠊࣥࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣝ㒊㛛ࡢ♫ಖ㞀ไᗘ
ࡢໟᦤ㸦ᖺ㔠ཷ⤥ᶒࡢ㸧ࢆ┠ⓗࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ㸦Tendero Bollain, 2014㸧ࠋ
௨ୗ࡛ࡣࠊ㸦බ㈈㸧ᖺ㔠ࢩࢽࣉࣛࣥ⥲ྜ◊✲ᶵᵓࡢ௧ඖ㸦2019㸧ᖺᗘ࣭◊✲ሗ࿌
᭩ࠕࣛࢸ࣓ࣥࣜ࢝ࡢᖺ㔠㛵ࡍࡿㄪᰝ◊✲ࠖᇶ࡙ࡁࠊࡇࡇ20ᖺࡢ㛫⾜ࢃࢀࡓ࣓࢟
ࢩࢥࡢᖺ㔠ᨵ㠉ࢆᴫほࡋࠊࡑࡢၥ㢟Ⅼࡘ࠸࡚⪃࠼ࡿࠋ
࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊ1997ᖺᐇࡉࢀࡓᖺ㔠ᨵ㠉ࡼࡾࠊẸ㛫ࢭࢡࢱ࣮ࡢປാ⪅ࡢᖺ㔠ไᗘࡀ
㈿ㄢ᪉ᘧࡢ☜ᐃ⤥ᆺ㸦defined benefitࠊ௨ୗDB㸧ᖺ㔠ࡽࠊẸ㛫ᖺ㔠㐠⏝࣭⟶⌮♫࡛࠶ࡿ
AFOREsࡀ㐠Ⴀࡍࡿಶே຺ᐃᆺࡢ☜ᐃᣐฟᆺ㸦defined contributionࠊ௨ୗDC㸧ᖺ㔠ษࡾ
᭰࠼ࡽࢀࡓࠋࡇࡢᨵ㠉࡛ࡣࠊ1997ᖺ7᭶1᪥ࡢ⛣⾜ᇶ‽᪥௨㝆ࡢ᪂つຍධ⪅ࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃࠊ᪤
ຍධ⪅ࡶဨࠊᇶ‽᪥௨㝆ࡣDCᖺ㔠ᣐฟࢆ⾜࠺༶⛣⾜࠸࠺᪉ᘧࡀྲྀࡽࢀࡓࠋ ࡋࡋࠊᪧDBᖺ㔠ࡢ᪤ຍධ⪅ࡣࠊ㏥⫋ᪧDBᖺ㔠᪂DCᖺ㔠ࡢࡕࡽࡽᖺ㔠ཷ⤥
ࢆཷࡅࡿࡢࢆ㑅ᢥ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ1997 ᖺࡢᖺ㔠ᨵ㠉ࡣྵࡲࢀ࡞ࡗࡓࡓࡵࠊ
㈿ㄢ᪉ᘧࡢDBᖺ㔠ࡋ࡚Ꮡ⥆ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓබົဨᖺ㔠㸦ISSSTE㸧࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ಖ㝤බ♫㸦IMSS㸧 ࡢ⫋ဨᖺ㔠ࡶࠊ2008ᖺಶே຺ᐃᆺDCᖺ㔠ษࡾ᭰࠼ࡽࢀࠊ2007ᖺ4᭶1᪥௨㝆ࡢ᪂つ 㞠⏝⪅ࡣࠊDCᖺ㔠ᙉไຍධࡍࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ46ṓᮍ‶ࡢබⓗࢭࢡࢱ࣮ປാ⪅ࡣࠊDBᖺ 㔠DCᖺ㔠ࢆ㑅ᢥࡋࠊ46ṓ௨ୖࡢබⓗࢭࢡࢱ࣮ປാ⪅ࡣࠊᚑ᮶ࡽࡢDBᖺ㔠ࡀ⥅⥆ࡍ
ࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋබⓗࢭࢡࢱ࣮ປാ⪅ࡢDCᖺ㔠ࡣࠊ⛣⾜ᚋ3ᖺ㛫ࡣ᪂つタ❧ࡉࢀࡓබⓗ
ᶵ㛵Pension ISSSTEࡀ㐠⏝ࢆᢸ࠸ࠊ2012ᖺࡽබⓗࢭࢡࢱ࣮ປാ⪅ࡶࠊAFOREsࡢ㈨⏘ࡢ
⛣⟶ࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊ2019ᖺࡽ᪂ࡋ࠸㠀ᣐฟᖺ㔠ไᗘPBPAMࡀᑟධࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᖺ 㔠ࢩࢽࣉࣛࣥ⥲ྜ◊✲ᶵᵓ, ๓ᥖ᭩㸸77-78㸧ࠋ
ᣐฟᆺᖺ㔠ࡢຍධ⋡㸦2015ᖺ㸧㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣࠊ75.9%ࡢ࢘ࣝࢢࡸࠊ60%ྎࡢࣝࢮࣥࢳ
ࣥࠊࣈࣛࢪࣝࠊࢳࣜࠊࢥࢫࢱࣜ࢝ᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡣ 32.9%పࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ⤥ᡤᚓ
⪅ࡢຍධ⪅ẚ⋡ࡣ44.0%ࡔࡀࠊ㠀⤥ᡤᚓ⪅ࡢຍධ⪅ẚ⋡ࡣ1.6%ࡁࢃࡵ࡚ప࠸ࠋ㒔ᕷ㒊࡛
ࡶຍධ⪅ẚ⋡ࡣ38.7%Ỵࡋ࡚㧗࠸Ỉ‽࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࡀࠊ㎰ᮧ㒊࡛ࡣ 12.0%ࡲࡿࠋ⏨ᛶࡣ
33.6%ࠊዪᛶࡣ31.8%࡛ࠊ⏨ዪ㛫ࡢᕪࡣᑠࡉ࠸ࠋ௨ୖࡢࡼ࠺ࠊᣐฟᆺᖺ㔠ࡢຍධ⋡ࡣప࠸
ࡶࡢࡢࠊ㠀ᣐฟᆺᖺ㔠ไᗘࡼࡾࠊ65 ṓ௨ୖேཱྀ༨ࡵࡿᖺ㔠ཷ⤥⪅ࡢẚ⋡ࡣࠊ2002 ᖺࡢ 19.2%ࡽࠊ2008ᖺ 45.0%㸦ᣐฟᆺ㸸25.4%ࠊ㠀ᣐฟᆺ㸸23.1%㸧ࠊ2014 ᖺ 70.6%㸦ᣐฟ ᆺ㸸28.4%ࠊ㠀ᣐฟᆺ㸸47.8%㸧ୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦๓ᥖ᭩㸸12-15㸹79㸧ࠋ
࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ⥲ᡤᚓ௦᭰⋡ࡣࠊ୰ኸ್࡛ࡣ⏨ᛶ࣭ዪᛶࡶ46.2%࡛ࠊ୰༡⡿26ࣨᅜࡢᖹᆒ
ࡢ⏨ᛶ64.7%ࠊዪᛶ63.1%ࢆୗᅇࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊ⛯ຠᯝࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ⣧ᡤᚓ௦᭰⋡ࡣࠊ୰ኸ್
࡛⏨ᛶ࣭ዪᛶࡶ 46.8%࡛ࠊ⥲ᡤᚓ௦᭰⋡࠶ࡲࡾኚࢃࡽࡎࠊඛࡢ 26 ࣨᅜࡢᖹᆒࡢ⏨ᛶ
68.7%ࠊዪᛶ 66.9%ẚ࡚ࡶࡸࡣࡾప࠸ࠋᡤᚓỈ‽ู࡛ࡣࠊᖹᆒᡤᚓࡢ0.5ಸࡢᒙ࡛ࡣࠊᡤ ᚓ௦᭰⋡ࡣ⏨ᛶ࣭ዪᛶࡶ57.3%ࡸࡸ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡀࠊᖹᆒᡤᚓྠ➼ࡢᒙ࡛ࡣࠊ⏨ᛶࡀ29.5%ࠊ
ዪᛶࡀ 28.6%୍Ẽపୗࡋࠊᡤᚓ㝵ᒙࡀୖࡀࡿࡘࢀ࡚ࠊᡤᚓ௦᭰⋡ࡣᑠᖜ࡞ࡀࡽୗࡀࡿ
ഴྥࢆ♧ࡍ㸦๓ᥖ᭩㸸79㸧ࠋ
๓㏙ࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊ1997ᖺDCᖺ㔠⛣⾜ࡋࡓẸ㛫ࢭࢡࢱ࣮ປാ⪅ࡢ࠺ࡕࠊ ᪧDBᖺ㔠ࡢ᪤ຍධ⪅ࡣࠊ㏥⫋ᪧDBᖺ㔠᪂DCᖺ㔠ࡢࡕࡽࡽᖺ㔠ཷ⤥ࢆཷࡅࡿ
ࢆ㑅ᢥ࡛ࡁࡿࡀࠊᙼࡽࡣᪧDBᖺ㔠ࡽࡢᖺ㔠ཷ⤥ࢆ㑅ᢥࡍࡿࡇࡼࡾࠊ┦ᛂ㧗࠸ᡤ ᚓ௦᭰⋡ࢆ☜ಖ࡛ࡁࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊDCᖺ㔠ࡢࡳࡢຍධ⪅ࡢᡤᚓ௦᭰⋡ࡣࠊᛴῶࡍࡿࡇࡀぢ㎸
ࡲࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡁ࡞ୡ௦㛫ࡢࢠࣕࢵࣉࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿ㸦๓ᥖ᭩㸸80㸧ࠋ
(b) ᐙ᪘ࢆ୰ᚰࡋࡓᢇ㣴ࢩࢫࢸ࣒
௨ୖࡢࡼ࠺࡞࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿᖺ㔠ไᗘᨵ㠉ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊᖺ㔠ࢆཷࡅྲྀࡿࡇࡢ࡛ࡁࡿ㧗㱋
⪅ࡢྜࡣᛴ㏿ቑຍࡋࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢᡤᚓ௦᭰⋡ࡢపࡉ࡞ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢᖺ㔠ไᗘࡣ 㧗㱋⪅ࡢ⤒῭ⓗಖ㞀ࡋ࡚༑ศᶵ⬟ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡣゝ࠼࡞࠸ࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࢀຍ࠼࡚ࠊ➨
4 ⠇࡛ࡶぢࡓࡼ࠺࡞࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿ㈓⋡ࡢపࡉࡣࠊ㧗㱋⪅ࡀᖺ㔠ᑐࡍࡿ㏣ຍⓗ࡞㈨⏘
ᙧᡂࢆࡍࡿవ⿱ࡀ࡞࠸ࡇࢆ♧ࡍࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊఏ⤫ⓗ࡞ᐙ᪘ࡸᆅᇦ♫ࡢ⣣ᖏࡀ࠸ࡲࡔ㧗 㱋⪅ࡢ⤒῭ⓗಖ㞀ࡗ࡚㔜せ࡞ពࢆᣢࡕ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ
ᖺ㔠ࠊ㏥⫋㔠ࠊࡑࡋ࡚ᚋ㏙ࡿປാሗ㓘ࡸࡑࡢࡢ※Ἠࡽཷࡅྲྀࡽࢀࡿධຍ࠼࡚ࠊ 㧗㱋⪅ᒙࡀཷࡅྲྀࡿ㈨※ࡢ㒊ศࡣࠊከࡃࡢሙྜࠊୡᖏෆࡲࡓࡣୡᖏእࡢᐙ᪘ෆㆡΏ⏤᮶ ࡍࡿࠋࡑࢀࡽࡢㆡΏࡣࠊ┤᥋ࡢ㔠㖹ⓗຓࡽࠊẼࡸ㒊ศⓗ㞀ᐖࡢ࠶ࡿ㌟ෆࡢಶேⓗ
ㆤࠊゼၥࡸ㟁ヰ࡞ࡢ⥴ⓗᨭ࡞ࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡞ᙧែࢆࡿࠋୡ௦㛫ࡢ㐃ᖏࡢ⩦័ⓗ࡞ᙧែ
ࡣࠊ1 ே࠶ࡓࡾࡢఫᒃ㈝ࢆῶࡽࡋࠊ㈙࠸≀ࡸ㣗ࡢ‽ഛ࠾ࡅࡿつᶍࡢ⤒῭ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࠊ≉
ᐃࡢᚲせࢆᣢࡘ㌟ෆࡢ┤᥋ⓗ࡞ᨭࢆᐜ᫆ࡍࡿྠᒃ࠸࠺ᙧែ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊྠᒃࡀ ᚲࡎࡋࡶ㈨※ࡢඹ᭷ࢆពࡍࡿࢃࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸୍᪉ࠊ㧗㱋⪅ᒙࡣࠊୡᖏእᒃఫࡍࡿᐙ᪘
ࡽࡢㆡΏࢆཷࡅྲྀࡿࡇࡶ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊ60ṓ௨ୖࡢேࠎࡢ38.6%ࡀୡᖏࡣ↓㛵 ಀࡢேࠎࡽࡢఱࡽࡢᨭࢆཷࡅ࡚࠸ࡿ୍᪉ࠊᣑኵ፬ୡᖏࡢఫேࡢ 28.5%ࡀྠᒃேࡽ
ᨭࢆཷࡅ࡚࠸࡞࠸࠸࠺ࠋࡣ࠸࠼ࠊࡸࡣࡾᐙ᪘ෆㆡΏࡀ㧗㱋⪅ᒙࡢධࡢせ࡞※Ἠ࡞
ࡢ࡛ࠊᙼࡽࡣ⏕Ꮡࡢࡓࡵᐙ᪘ࡢᨭࢆᣢࡓ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ሙྜࡀከࡃࠊ1996ᖺࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ 㞠⏝ᅜㄪᰝࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࡣࠊ⤒῭ⓗ⌧ᙺ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ேཱྀࡣࠊᐇ㝿ᐙ᪘ࡽࡢຓࢆཷࡅ࡚࠸
ࡿࡇࢆ᫂ࡽࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Guzmán, José Miguel, ibid.㸧ࠋ
ࡋࡋࠊ୰༡⡿࣭࢝ࣜࣈᾏᆅᇦࡢᅜࠎ࡛ࡣࠊ㏆ᖺࠊᐙ᪘ࢧࢬࡢ⦰ᑠዪᛶࡢປാཧຍࡢ ቑຍ࠸࠺2ࡘࡢഴྥࡼࡗ࡚ࠊㆤ࡞ࡢᨭࡢࡓࡵࡢ㏆ぶࢿࢵࢺ࣮࣡ࢡࢆᣢࡓ࡞࠸୍ே
ᬽࡽࡋࡢ㧗㱋⪅ࡢྜࡀቑຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦Aranco, N., et.al., ibid.㸧ࠋᐙ᪘ࢧࢬࡢ⦰ᑠࡸ୍ேᬽ
ࡽࡋࡣࠊ࠸࠺ࡲ࡛ࡶ࡞ࡃ⤒῭ⓗຓ⪅ࡢ⠊ᅖࡸつᶍࡢ⤒῭ࡢ⦰ᑠࢆពࡍࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊILOࡢ ᥎ィࡼࢀࡤࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡶ15㹼64ṓࡢዪᛶࡢປാཧຍ⋡ࡣ1990ᖺࡢ35.6%ࡽ2020ᖺࡢ
47.8%╔ᐇቑຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦World Bank Group, ibid.㸧ࠋዪᛶࡢປാཧຍ⋡ࡢቑຍࡣࠊఏ⤫
ⓗዪᛶᖐࡏࡽࢀ࡚ࡁࡓ㧗㱋⪅ࡢ㣗ࡢᥦ౪ࡸㆤ࡞ᐙᗞෆࡢ↓ሗ㓘ປാࢆࠊᕷሙࢆ
㏻ࡋ࡚ࡢࢧ࣮ࣅࢫࡢ㉎ධ࡛௦᭰ࡏࡊࡿࢆᚓ࡞ࡃࡋࠊࡇࢀࡣዪᛶࡢປാཧຍࡼࡿ㏣ຍⓗ࡞
ධࡢຠᯝࢆ┦ẅࡍࡿࠋ
(c) ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢ㧗㱋⪅ࡢປാᕷሙࡢࢡࢭࢫ
ඛ㐍ᅜࡢ㏥⫋ᖺ㱋ࡣࠊ♫ಖ㞀ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢ㐺⏝⠊ᅖࡸᐶࡉࡢಟṇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ๓ୡ⣖ࡢ
ึࡵ௨㝆ࠊᚎࠎపୗࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࠋࡑࢀᑐࡋ࡚ࠊⓎᒎࡀࡼࡾప࠸Ỉ‽࠶ࡾࠊ㐺⏝⠊ᅖᐶ
ࡉஈࡋ࠸♫ಖ㞀ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࢆᣢࡘᅜࠎ࡛ࡣࠊ㧗㱋⪅ࡢάື⋡ࡀ᫂ࡽࡼࡾ㧗ࡃࠊ㏥⫋
ᖺ㱋ࡶࡼࡾ㧗࠸ࠋ୰༡⡿ㅖᅜ࡛ࡣࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㐺⏝⠊ᅖࡢỈ‽㧗㱋⪅ࡢ⤒῭ⓗཧຍࡢ㛫ࡢ 㛵ಀࡀ᫂☜ぢࡽࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊ㧗㱋⪅ࡢᖺ㱋ᛂࡌ࡚ࡇࡢ㛵ಀࢆศᯒࡍࡿࠊᖺ㱋ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞
ࡿࠊᖺ㔠ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢ㐺⏝⠊ᅖ⤒῭άືࡢཧຍࡢ㛵ಀࡀࡼࡾᙉࡃ࡞ࡿࡇࡀศࡿࠋ ࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ཧຍࡣ⮬Ⓨⓗ࠸࠺ࡼࡾࠊࡸࡴࢆᚓ࡞࠸ࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ᥎ ࡉࡏࡿࠋ
㛫ⓗ᥎⛣㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣࠊᆅᇦࡢᅜࠎࡢཧຍ⋡ࡀ90ᖺ௦ቑࡋࡓࡇࡀ☜ㄆ࡛ࡁࠊ1990㹼2000 ᖺࠊ10௨ୖࡢᅜ࡛ࠊάື⋡ࡣࠊ50㹼59ṓࡢேཱྀࡢ㛫࡛58%ࡽ65%ࠊ64ṓ௨ୖࡢ㛫࡛
20%ࡽ23%ኚࡋࡓ㸦Paz, Jorge A., 2010㸧ࠋ
ࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊ୰༡⡿࣭࢝ࣜࣈᾏᆅᇦ࡛ࡣ୍⯡ࠊ⤒῭ⓗ⌧ᙺࡢ㧗㱋⪅ࡢྜࡀ㧗ࡃࠊ࣮ࣚ
ࣟࢵࣃࡢᅜࠎࡢ㒊ศࡀ 15%࡛࠶ࡿࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊࡇࡢᆅᇦࡢ㒊ศࡢᅜࠎ࡛ 30%ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿࠋ
ࡲࡓࠊ1999ᖺ࣓ࣜ࢝ྜ⾗ᅜ࡛ࡣࠊ⌧ᙺ࡛࠶ࡾ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡓ65ṓ௨ୖࡢேࠎࡣࠊ⏨ᛶ17%ࠊ
ዪᛶ9%㐣ࡂ࡞ࡗࡓࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ2000ᖺࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࡢࢭࣥࢧࢫࡼࡿࠊ60ṓ௨ୖࡢ⏨
ᛶࡢ66.6%ࠊ65ṓ௨ୖࡢ42.6%ࡀ⌧ᙺ࡛࠶ࡾ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࡇࢀࡽࡢᩘᏐࡣࠊ
60ṓ௨ୖࡢ⏨ᛶࡢ75.8%ࡀ⌧ᙺࡔࡗࡓ1970ᖺࡢᩘᏐẚࡿῶᑡࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊᖺ 㔠ᨵ㠉ࡢ⤖ᯝࡋ࡚ࡢᖺ㔠ࡢ㐺⏝⠊ᅖࡢᣑࡀ㛵ಀࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊዪᛶ
㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣࠊ⤒῭άືࡣ㠀ṇつ㒊㛛࡛ࡢࡑࢀࡼࡾ⤖ࡧࡅࡽࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊᖺ㱋ࡶࡼࡾᛴ
㏿ῶᑡࡋࠊ12ṓ௨ୖࡢዪᛶࡍ࡚㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ31.3%࡞ࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ65ṓ௨ୖࡢ⌧ᙺ࡛࠶ࡾ
⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿዪᛶࡣ10.3%ࡢࡳ࡛࠶ࡿ㸦Guzmán, José Miguel, ibid.㸧ࠋ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࠾ࡅࡿࡇࡢࡼ࠺
࡞㧗㱋⏨ᛶࡢປാཧຍ⋡ࡢ㧗ࡉࡣࠊᚋࡶ⥆ࡃࡶࡢᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊILOࡢ᥎ィ࡛ࡶࠊ࣓
࢟ࢩࢥࡢ65ṓ௨ୖࡢ⏨ᛶࡢ4⛬ᗘࡀ⤒῭ⓗ⌧ᙺ࡛࠶ࡾ⥆ࡅࠊ65௨ୖࡢዪᛶ࡛ࡶ15%๓ ᚋࡢỈ‽ࢆ⥔ᣢࡋ⥆ࡅࡿࡶࡢ⪃࠼ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦ᅗ7㸧ࠋ
ప࠸ᡤᚓ௦᭰⋡࠸࠺༑ศ࡞ᖺ㔠ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࠊᐙ᪘ࢆ୰ᚰࡋࡓ㧗㱋⪅ᨭࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢ ᙅయࡀࠊ୰༡⡿࣭࢝ࣜࣈᾏᆅᇦࡢ㧗㱋⪅ࡣ㧗࠸ປാཧຍ⋡ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࠊ 㧗㱋⪅ᒙࡢປാຊࡢ㧗࠸ཧຍ⋡ࡣࠊᚲࡎࡋࡶ⮬Ⓨⓗ࡞㑅ᢥᑐᛂࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋᐇ㝿ࠊࡇࡢ ᆅᇦ࠾ࡅࡿ㧗㱋⪅ࡢປാཧຍࡣࠊ⏕⏘ᖺ㱋࠶ࡿࡁ⪁ᚋࡢ㈨⏘ᙧᡂࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞ࡗࡓࡇ
ࡸ㏥⫋㔠ࢆཷࡅྲྀࢀ࡞࠸ࡇࠊࡲࡓࠊᖺ㔠㢠ࡢᑡ࡞ࡉ⤖ࡧ࠸࡚࠸ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ
ࡣ࠸࠼ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥࢆྵࡴ୰༡⡿ᆅᇦ࠾࠸࡚ࠊᑵᴗࡋ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿ㧗㱋⪅ࡢ㒊ศࡣࠊ㠀 ṇつ⤒῭࠾࠸࡚ࠊṇつ⤒῭࠾࠸࡚↓Ⓩ㘓ປാ⪅ࡢ㈨᱁࡛ാ࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㧗㱋⪅ࡀ㠀ṇつ ࡢᙧ࡛ᑵᴗᵓ㐀ධࡿࡼࡾࡁ࡞ഴྥࡣࠊᙼࡽࡀᗣၥ㢟࡞ࠊᖺ㱋ࡶᛴ⃭ቑࡍ
ࡿㅖࠎࡢࣜࢫࢡᑐࡋ࡚↓㜵ഛ࡞ࡿഴྥࢆቑࡉࡏࡿࠋ㠀ṇつ⤒῭ࡢ㞠⏝࡛ࡣࠊධࡣࡼ
ࡾᑡ࡞ࡃᏳᐃ࡛ࠊカ⦎ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࡢࢡࢭࢫࡢྍ⬟ᛶࡣࡼࡾపࡃࠊ⤒῭ᚠ⎔ࡢኚ㝿 ࡋ࡚ࡣࠊච⫋ࡢྍ⬟ᛶࡀࡼࡾࡁ࠸ࠋࡑࡢࡓࡵࠊ㧗㱋⪅ࡢዎ⣙ࡸປാࡢᏳᐃᛶࡀᮃࡲࡋ࠸
⪃࠼ࡿ࡞ࡽࡤࠊබඹᨻ⟇ࡣࠊᴗࡀ㔜せ⪃࠼ࡿせ⣲ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊ≉ᐃࡢカ⦎ᢞ㈨ࡍࡿỴ ᐃࢆࡍࡿࡼ࠺ᴗಁࡍࡁ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢࢱࣉࡢカ⦎ࡼࡾࠊಶேࡀᣢࡘேⓗ㈨ᮏࡢࢫࢺࢵ
ࢡࡀࡁࡃ࡞ࡿࠊᴗࡣゎ㞠ࢆࠊປാ⪅ࡣ㏥⫋ࢆࡓࡵࡽ࠺࠸࠺Ⅼ࡛ࠊປാ⪅ࡗ࡚
ࡣಖ㝤ࡋ࡚ᶵ⬟ࡍࡿ㸦Paz, Jorge A., 2010㸧ࠋ
6. ࠾ࢃࡾ
ࡇࢀࡲ࡛ぢ࡚ࡁࡓࡼ࠺ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊṚஸ⋡ࡢᛴῶࡼࡿேཱྀࡢᛴቑ㐜ࢀ࡚㉳ࡇࡗ ࡓฟ⏕⋡ࡢᛴῶࡀࠊேཱྀᡂ㛗ࢫࣆ࣮ࢻࡢపୗࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ேཱྀືែࡢኚࡣࠊ
⌧ᅾ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ேཱྀ㌿ࡢࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ⤒῭ᡂ㛗᭷࡞᮲௳ࢆࡶࡓ
ࡽࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ࡣࠊୡ⏺⤒῭ࡢ≧ἣ⤒῭ᨻ⟇࣭⏘ᴗᨻ⟇ࡢᩚ
ྜࡸࠊ༑ศ࡞♫⤒῭ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢᣢ⥆࡞ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊࡑࡢࡼ࠺࡞ዲᶵࢆୖᡭࡃά⏝ࡋࠊᮾ
ࢪࡢᅜࠎࡀ1960ᖺ௦ࡽ1990ᖺ௦ࡅ࡚ᐇ㝿ᐇ⌧ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡞⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࢆᡭධࢀ
ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺ࡣᛮࢃࢀ࡞࠸ࠋຍ࠼࡚ࠊᚋ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ࡛ᛴ㏿㐍⾜ࡍࡿᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ
㧗㱋ᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ༑ศ࡞ᖺ㔠ᨭ⤥㢠ࠊᐙ᪘ࢆ୰ᚰࡍࡿಖㆤࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢᙅయࠊ㸦≉㧗㱋
⪅ᑐࡍࡿ㸧Ᏻᐃ࡞㠀ṇつ㞠⏝࡞ࡀ♧ࡍࡼ࠺ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ࡣ༑ศ࡞ഛ࠼ࡀ࡛ࡁ࡚
࠸ࡿࡼ࠺ࡣᛮࢃࢀ࡞࠸ࠋࡇࡢࡲࡲ࡛ࡣࠊᨻᗓ㈈ᨻࡣᛴቑࡍࡿ♫ಖ㞀ᑐࡍࡿ㟂せࢆࡲ
࡞࠺ࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡎࠊከࡃࡢ⏕άᅔ㞴࡞㧗㱋⪅ࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࠊ㧗㱋⪅ࡢ㈋ᅔࡀ♫ࡢᏳᐃࢆᣍ ࡃࡇ࡞ࡾࡡ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ♫ࡣࠊ⌧ᅾࡇࡢᅜࡀ㏄࠼࡚࠸ࡿ⤒῭ᡂ㛗᭷
࡞ேཱྀᏛⓗ᮲௳ࢆ༑ศάࡏࡿࡔࡅࡢ⤒῭ᨻ⟇࣭⏘ᴗᨻ⟇ࡢ❧ࡸࠊᖺ㔠ไᗘࠊ་⒪ไᗘࠊ ᩍ⫱ไᗘࡸປാᕷሙࡢᣑ῝࡞ࡢ♫⤒῭ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢ୍ᒙࡢᨵ㠉ࢆᐇ⾜ࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞
ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ᪉ࠊᖹᆒవࡢᛴ㏿࡞ఙ㛗ࡢୗ࡛ࡣࠊಶேࡸಶࠎࡢᐙィࡶࠊྍ⬟࡞⠊ᅖ࡛ࡢປാ
ཧຍຍ࠼࡚ࠊ㔠⼥ࣜࢸࣛࢩ࣮ࢆ㌟╔ࡅࠊ㈓ࡸᢞ㈨࡞ࡢ㈨⏘ᙧᡂྥࡅࡓ⮬ຓດຊࢆ
ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࡔࢁ࠺ࠋ
Bibliography 㸦Ḣᩥ㸧
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Papeles de POBLACIÓN, No.45, pp.9-27. CIEAP/UAEM.
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z Tendero Bollain, Aída D. (2014) “La seguridad económica para los adultos mayores lograda por el Estado de Bienestar socialdemócrata. Puede México acercarse algunos pasos?,” En Montoya Arce, B.J., Jasso, Salas, P. y Barreto Villanueva, A. (eds.), Hitos demográficos del siglo XXI : envejecimiento. Tomo I, Toluca, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México: 13-30.
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㸦ᩥ㸧
z Ᏹబ⨾⪔୍, 2009.ࠗᅗㄝࣛࢸ࣓ࣥࣜ࢝⤒῭࠘㸬᪥ᮏホㄽ♫㸬
z ෆᒣ┤Ꮚ, 2020.ࠕ࣐ࢡࣟࢹ࣮ࢱࡽㄞࡳゎࡃAMLOᨻᶒୗࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ⤒῭ࡢᐇࠖ㸪ࠗࣛ
ࢸ࣓࣭࣏࣮ࣥࣜ࢝ࣞࢺ࠘㸪Vol. 36, No. 2, pp.32-50㸬
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◊✲ࠖ㸬
z ᫍ㔝ጁᏊ, 2017.ࠕ᪂⮬⏤⩏⤒῭ᨵ㠉ᚋࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ⤒῭ࡢᡂ㛗ศ㓄㸸ඛ⾜◊✲ࢧ࣮࣋
ࠖ㸪ᫍ㔝ጁᏊ⦅,ࠗ21ୡ⣖ࡢ࣓࢟ࢩࢥ㸸㏆௦ࡍࡿ⤒῭ࠊศᴟࡍࡿᨻ♫࠘ㄪᰝ
◊✲ሗ࿌᭩, ࢪ⤒῭◊✲ᡤ, pp.1-21㸬
z ᇼᆏᾈኴ㑻⦅, 1996.ࠗࣛࢸ࣓ࣥࣜ࢝ᴗㄽ㸸ᅜ㝿ᒎ㛤ᆅᇦ⤒῭ᅪ࠘㸬᪥ᮏホㄽ♫㸬
The Aging and Financial Security of the Elderly in Mexico
Shojiro NABESHIMA
In Mexico, the rapid decline in fertility, which was delayed after rapid population growth due to a rapid decline in mortality, caused a slowdown in population growth. This demographic upheaval has led to a demographic transition process in Mexican society, providing favorable conditions for economic growth— the so-called “demographic dividend.” In fact, East Asian countries that experienced similarly favorable demographic conditions from the 1960s to the 1990s achieved unprecedented economic growth during the same period. However, due to the inconsistency between the world economic situation and economic and industrial policies, and the continuation of an inadequate socio-economic system, it seems that Mexico has not been able to take advantage of this window of opportunity and obtain steady economic growth. In addition, due to insufficient pension payments, weakening of the family-centered protection system, and unstable irregular employment (especially for the elderly), Mexican society does not seem to be well prepared for the aging of its population, which is expected to progress rapidly in the future.
If countermeasures are not devised, government finances will be unable to meet the rapidly
increasing demand for social security, many elderly people will have difficulty in living, and their poverty may lead to social instability. Therefore, Mexican society must plan adequate economic and industrial policies that can fully utilize the demographic conditions that are favorable to the economic growth of this country and expand and improve socio-economic systems such as pension, health care, education, and the labor market. On the other hand, with the rapid growth in life expectancy, individuals and households should acquire financial literacy and make self-help efforts toward developing assets, such as savings and investment, in addition to continuing to participate in the labor market to the extent possible.
